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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go throwing spect I'm saying it to.

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Speaker 3: Cash touch and we'll see most gamblers when they go

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Speaker 3: to gamble, they go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate Kabai want to.

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Speaker 4: And we are way.

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Speaker 3: What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. He's

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Speaker 3: entered by bet MGM. This is your NFL Week nine

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Speaker 3: betting preview and I'm your host, Chris Raybond. On the show,

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Speaker 3: We're gonna talk our favorite sides, totals, Heezers, survivor picks,

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Speaker 3: underdog money lines, and of course we'll crack open our

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Speaker 3: weekly Sunday six pack of against the Spread bets with

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Speaker 3: the help of my co host, the Prime Minister of

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Speaker 3: Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 2: What's going on?

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Speaker 4: It's go on, brother.

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Speaker 5: It was a weird week in that I ended up

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Speaker 5: five hundred, but it was the worst half week I've

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Speaker 5: ever had in my life. I Mean, the Packers were

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Speaker 5: embarrassing again the first half. They just don't know how

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Speaker 5: to play football, and then my Texans Panthers over was

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Speaker 5: just a shit show. Of them just trying to run

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Speaker 5: way too often. So had that one completely wrong. The

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Speaker 5: thing that sucked about the six pack for the podcast

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Speaker 5: that you should have swept and got absolutely shafted. You

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Speaker 5: had a Browns bounce off a helmet and then the

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Speaker 5: Ravens not covering. I mean it took acts of God

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Speaker 5: for that, not I mean the on side kick, a

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Speaker 5: missed fuel goal and a penalty. So those two are

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Speaker 5: brutal for you. So, as always, we are on to

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Speaker 5: week nine.

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Speaker 3: We will jump right into the Thursday Night Football and

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Speaker 3: then we'll crack open into six Pack. Before we do,

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Speaker 3: just a reminder that the NBA season has officially tipped off,

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Speaker 3: so if you like betting on the association, be sure

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Speaker 3: to check out Buckets Action Networks Basketball Betting podcast, new

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Speaker 3: episodes every single weekday during the NBA season. That name again,

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Speaker 3: Buckets available wherever you like to listen. All right, let's

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Speaker 3: get into Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 3: All right, So this is an interesting game. We have

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Speaker 3: the Tennessee Titans, who all of a sudden there is

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Speaker 3: you know, a team that seemed dead just dead to right.

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Speaker 3: The other fan base has some optimism, but they go

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Speaker 3: to Pittsburgh. The Steelers are two and a half point favorites,

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Speaker 3: the total thirty six and a half. The public is

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Speaker 3: loving the apparently, which is interesting to me. I think,

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Speaker 3: you know, if this Will Levis hype train is for real,

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Speaker 3: the way that Tennessee probably has success is, you know,

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Speaker 3: down the field, make a Fitzpatrick out for Pittsburgh, you

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Speaker 3: also have they were struggling just deep passes in general,

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Speaker 3: dead last and Dvoa on deep passes. So that's my

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Speaker 3: kind of thought on this game. I think it's probably

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Speaker 3: Tennessee in the over.

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Speaker 2: Weens for me. But what are you thinking with this one?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, a lot of uncertainty, like many of the games

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Speaker 5: this weekend with Will Levis. I mean, look, he overall looked,

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Speaker 5: I mean, threw for four touchdowns own receptions this first game,

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Speaker 5: but it was mainly just four explosive passing plays.

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Speaker 4: Hopkins.

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Speaker 5: I was with a I was with a friend who

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Speaker 5: benched Hopkins because of Levis for the first time all year.

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Speaker 5: He was not happy about that on his fantas team.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean, if you remove those explosives which

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Speaker 5: aren't you know, they're not the most steady, sustainable passing type.

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Speaker 5: It wasn't that great of a day for Levis. I

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Speaker 5: think he would have winn what fifteen of twenty five

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Speaker 5: or like seventy yards or something. So can he keep

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Speaker 5: that up? It remains to be seen, you know, the

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Speaker 5: sample size of one. We still need to learn more

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Speaker 5: about Levis. There's also Steelers quarterback on Certendil, though there's

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Speaker 5: not much difference in my opinion between Pickett and Bortles.

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Speaker 5: It's Aka Trubisky.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think this total's come down a little bit

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Speaker 5: too far. With no Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh's best point of attack here,

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Speaker 5: I think on offense is to take some shots against

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Speaker 5: that Tennessee secondary that's not very good. So this is

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Speaker 5: a super low total because of all the prime time unders.

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Speaker 5: So it's probably a little bit too much uncertainty for

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Speaker 5: me to get involved. But I wouldn't I do lean

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Speaker 5: and show a little bit of value on the over

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Speaker 5: from a side perspective, Now this has come down, I

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Speaker 5: can't bet Tennessee. Look, it's a classic Tomlin spot off

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Speaker 5: the loss at home. But the Steelers seems just not good.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they've been out gained in every single game

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Speaker 5: through eight weeks.

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Speaker 4: They have the.

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Speaker 5: Lowest net yardage differential for eighteen it's over five hundred.

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Speaker 5: I think the line up two and a half three

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Speaker 5: is about right. I think the total is probably a

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Speaker 5: little bit too low, But gross Thursday night game a

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Speaker 5: lot of quarterback uncertainty on both ends. So as of

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Speaker 5: right now, it's a pass for me.

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Speaker 3: I agree with the uncertainty, but I also even at

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Speaker 3: the two and a half, I would still lean Tennessee

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Speaker 3: there because I think this is just one of those

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Speaker 3: spots where, you know, remember a few weeks ago, I

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Speaker 3: forget whatever the Steelers played CJ. Stroud, and you know,

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Speaker 3: I was just like, listen, he's a rookie, but the

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Speaker 3: Steelers aren't gonna be able to score as much as

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Speaker 3: he is, and it you know, there's much more uncertainty

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Speaker 3: with Levis than there was a Stroud at this point.

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Speaker 3: But like, the thing that's most dangerous about Levis is

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Speaker 3: the downfield passing, and that's the element that he adds

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Speaker 3: and that's what Pittsburgh is bad at.

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Speaker 2: So there is uncertainty, but you're.

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Speaker 3: Also kind of maximizing the upside within that uncertainty, and

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Speaker 3: I feel like it goes towards Tennessee because on the

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Speaker 3: other side, I'm hearing at you know, Pickett one, he's

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Speaker 3: trying to play, he's got a rib injury, and they're

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Speaker 3: saying he might not be able to get his usual

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Speaker 3: you know, zip on the ball and.

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Speaker 2: Things like that.

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Speaker 3: So that just puts Pittsburgh in a bad situation because

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Speaker 3: the one thing on defense Tennessee does well, it.

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Speaker 2: Stopped to run.

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Speaker 3: And if Pickett has to, if that's Pittsburgh's means of offense.

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Speaker 3: I just think both sides of the ball trying to

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Speaker 3: favor Tennessee with all the you know, the circumstances surrounding

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Speaker 3: this matchup. So it's Tennessee or nothing for me and

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Speaker 3: the over and nothing for me. But it's it's a

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Speaker 3: Thursday night game. It's a lot of uncertainty, and I'm

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Speaker 3: probably probably just staying away, but I am tempted to

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Speaker 3: back to back Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie. But let's get into.

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Speaker 3: What is I think just one of the most intriguing,

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Speaker 3: interesting UH slates that we've had all of twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 3: So let's go right in to our week number nine,

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Speaker 3: Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Back Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six.

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Speaker 3: Pack, all right, twenty nine to twenty six meters, As

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Speaker 3: you mentioned, had a couple of bad beats, but you

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Speaker 3: know I got to eat those because I've been running hot.

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Speaker 3: I am going to start it off this week and

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Speaker 3: I am going for my first pick of the week

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Speaker 3: nine Sunday six pack and the first overall with the

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Speaker 3: fire selling Washington Commanders plus three and a half at

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Speaker 3: the New England Patriots. First of all, both of these

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Speaker 3: teams are bad, but New England should not be favored

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Speaker 3: by a field goal really against anybody, much less three

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Speaker 3: in a hook. You got New England who just unlike

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Speaker 3: Washington pretty much hasn't shown the ability to generate offense

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Speaker 3: much of the year. Now you caught he caught the

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Speaker 3: knife their highest scoring game against Buffalo. But even that game,

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, three hundred and sixty four total yards. Okay, fine,

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Speaker 3: that was only their second time all season over I mean,

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Speaker 3: excuse me, third time all season over three hundred. So

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Speaker 3: this is a team that is going to struggle. And

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Speaker 3: now you just lost your best receiver in Kendrick Bourne,

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Speaker 3: who is extremely productive this year. So just when things

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Speaker 3: look like, okay, maybe you getting some lineman back, you

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Speaker 3: lose a guy in Kendrick Bourne to an ACL who

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Speaker 3: had thirty seven catches, four hundred and six yards four

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Speaker 3: touchdowns on the year.

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Speaker 2: So that's a tough loss.

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Speaker 3: And you know this New England team, it's banged up

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Speaker 3: on defense. Still Belichick is getting exposed. I mean remember,

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Speaker 3: you know you could joke on the Raiders all you want,

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Speaker 3: but that was Belichick's succession playing in New England. All

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Speaker 3: this Josh mc daniels, Jimmy g stuff, it just so happened.

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Speaker 3: It didn't work out, and it was even worse. But

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Speaker 3: you know, Mac Jones has been regressing, and Howe's he's inconsistent.

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Speaker 3: But the upside for how I think, especially when I'm

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Speaker 3: getting points, is something you just don't have with Mac Jones.

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Speaker 2: Like Howell has already had.

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Speaker 3: Multiple games well over almost four hundred passing yards, coming

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Speaker 3: off a historic performance even in a loss last week.

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Speaker 3: And Mac Jones, you know, he started his career nine

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Speaker 3: to four against the spread since he's seven eighteen and one,

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Speaker 3: failing to cover by four just under four and a

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Speaker 3: half points a game three and twelve against the spread

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Speaker 3: since last Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 2: And that's just indicative of the.

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Speaker 3: Lack of upside that Mac Jones gives you, because this

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Speaker 3: hatred team has had a solid defense throughout much of

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Speaker 3: that stretch, but he just hasn't been able to get

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Speaker 3: it done. And I just have these teams rated pretty evenly.

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Speaker 3: But the difference is especially with all these injuries because

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Speaker 3: park even Parker probably's not playing, he's got a concussion.

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Speaker 3: So you're gonna have Hop Douglas, who I like, but

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Speaker 3: Ju the ghost of Juju at wide receiver. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you're right back to just poverty offense. Washington cannot we score.

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Speaker 3: So you know their defense was already bad thirty first

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Speaker 3: of DVOA, so you know you can't get much lower.

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Speaker 3: You still have some other guys on a defensive line,

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Speaker 3: some studs, So I'm not going to overreact to you know,

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Speaker 3: them trading Chase Young and Montes and Montes weat, but

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Speaker 3: because I just don't think that was that was a strength.

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Speaker 3: I think this Patriot offense is going to be bad regardless.

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Speaker 3: But Washington can actually score points. Washington can put up

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Speaker 3: four or five hundred yards of offense. Washington can put

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Speaker 3: up over thirty points. The Patriots can't. Uh, So give

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Speaker 3: me the Washington Commanders road underdogs historically below a touchdown

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Speaker 3: against a home favorite, averaging eighteen or fewer points one

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Speaker 3: sixty seven, ninety four and nine sixty four percent against

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Speaker 3: the spread over the last two decades. It's just really

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Speaker 3: tough when you can't score. So give me the Commanders

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Speaker 3: with the hook.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I got di have no real strong feel here,

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Speaker 5: but can't fault you for taking the dog catching the

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Speaker 5: hook with a total You know, I sitting around forty.

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Speaker 5: Fading this Patriots team as a favorite also is never

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Speaker 5: a bad idea, But don't really have a strong feel.

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Speaker 5: The Commanders are such a weird team, so you definitely

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Speaker 5: only want to back them as dogs as you're doing here,

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Speaker 5: avoid them as favorites because of the inconsistency at quarterback.

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Speaker 5: But I'm going to stay in the NFC East and

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Speaker 5: for my first pick in the second overall of the

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Speaker 5: Week nine Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Dallas

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Speaker 5: Cowboys plus three at the Philadelphia Eagles hopefully. Oh and

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Speaker 5: by the way, hopefully if the Patriots are four late,

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Speaker 5: they'll take a safety for you. That was another horrendous

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Speaker 5: beat this year. But yeah, I'm going with the Cowboys

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Speaker 5: plus three against the Eagles number one. Just from a

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Speaker 5: numbers perspective, I actually have the Cowboys slightly power.

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Speaker 4: Rated ahead of the Eagles as of now.

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Speaker 5: Rowing home field advantage, I make the Eagles, you know

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Speaker 5: about a one one and a half point favorite. Three

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Speaker 5: is the most important number in football, so I'm happy

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Speaker 5: to take the field goal here. I also just like

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Speaker 5: some matchup advantages for Dallas and where this team is trending.

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Speaker 5: The defense. Look, you lost Diggs at corner. There was

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Speaker 5: a little bit of growing pains, but they've kind of

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Speaker 5: settled it. In the secondary. Deron Bland is playing really well.

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Speaker 5: Mark heath Bell, an undrafted free agent, was great at

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Speaker 5: that the best linebacker in football per PFF right now

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Speaker 5: is playing out of his mind. He's an upgrade over

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Speaker 5: vander ash So the defense has really found its identity. Obviously,

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Speaker 5: you have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.

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Speaker 5: But it's more importantly, you know, and the defense for

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Speaker 5: the last couple of years it's been a top five unit.

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Speaker 5: It's a top five unit once again this year. We

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Speaker 5: know that on the other side of the ball, is

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Speaker 5: where I'm most impressed by and where Dallas is trending.

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Speaker 5: I was, you know, almost off this team completely a

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Speaker 5: few weeks ago for a few things. I was saying

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Speaker 5: Dak was not running the ball, afraid to run. He

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Speaker 5: only ran it twelve times over his first five games.

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Speaker 5: He's ran at eleven the last two and he didn't

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Speaker 5: even have to run in the second half last week

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Speaker 5: because it was such a blowout.

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Speaker 4: But he's now.

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Speaker 5: He's also moving around in the pocket more. But did

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Speaker 5: play calling and use of motion after the bye week

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Speaker 5: has increased. They're getting the ball out quick. They're throwing

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Speaker 5: it on first downs like it's not Mike McCarthy just

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Speaker 5: running into the walls. Zach Dak Press got an eighty

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Speaker 5: percent success right throwing on a first down. And they're

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Speaker 5: getting the ball off quick. You saw what Sam Hall

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Speaker 5: did last week. That was Washington's game plan. Get the

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Speaker 5: ball quick, throw it on early downs, neutralize the Eagles pressure,

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Speaker 5: take advantage of the holes in the middle of that

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Speaker 5: defense at slot corner. By the way, you could expect

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Speaker 5: a shit ton of ceedee lamb at in the slot.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I don't know what the Eagles are going

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Speaker 5: to do about that. But at DAK looks great. He's

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Speaker 5: number one in EPA over the past three weeks using

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Speaker 5: his legs getting rid of the ball. This offense is

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Speaker 5: in rhythm. He's had a ton of success against this

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Speaker 5: Eagles defense in the past. So I love where this.

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Speaker 5: This Dallas Cowboys offense is trending. Eagles run defense has

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Speaker 5: been great, Cowboys run offenses not. So you know that's

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Speaker 5: your strength. There is kind of neutrals. Tyron Smith could

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Speaker 5: come back at left tackle. Tyler Smith's playing out of

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Speaker 5: his mind all pro level at left guard. The rest

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Speaker 5: of the g in tiers playing well, so this offensive

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Speaker 5: line is trending.

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Speaker 4: Up as well.

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Speaker 5: Hurt's also still like just not one hundred percent healthy.

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Speaker 5: He had a big game last week just throwing to

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Speaker 5: AJ Brown, which is a concern.

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Speaker 4: So that there's I have concerns.

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Speaker 5: For both defenses here, Like I don't know the Eagles

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Speaker 5: are going to cover Ceedee Lamb. I don't know they're

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Speaker 5: going to cover the quick passing attack of Dallas over

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Speaker 5: the middle of the field. I also have a bit

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Speaker 5: concern about the Cowboys run defense and if Philly decides

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Speaker 5: to just.

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Speaker 4: Go power heavy. Also a J.

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Speaker 5: Brown Agets man coverage. Cowboys play a lot of Cover

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Speaker 5: zero man. Aj Brown is a destroying man coverage. Curious

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Speaker 5: to see if they try to put a safety over top.

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Speaker 5: You know, they were bracketing cup last week. Easier to

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Speaker 5: do in the slot than on the outside. So have

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Speaker 5: some concern for the Cowboys defense. But this Eagles offense

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Speaker 5: just all year it's looked it's been inconsistent, and the

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Speaker 5: whole team has been inconsistent. I mean, if you look,

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Speaker 5: their pass defense is twenty third DDA, their eighteenth overall,

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Speaker 5: already their top three in our luck rankings to have

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Speaker 5: been one of the luckiest teams in the NFL. They're

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Speaker 5: four and one in one possession games. You're talking Vikings

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Speaker 5: by six, Hats by five. They were six to two

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Speaker 5: turnover advantage in those games, Commanders by three in overtime,

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Speaker 5: Commanders by seven in the game that was back and

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Speaker 5: forth the entire game. You know, they beat the Rams

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Speaker 5: by nine and the Bucks by warding loss to the

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Speaker 5: Jets and Zach Wilson, and then you know they're one

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Speaker 5: really impressive performance game against the Dolphins. So like it's

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Speaker 5: been a really inconsistent team. The offense has been up

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Speaker 5: and down. The defense has been good against the run,

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Speaker 5: but not against the pass, which I think Dallas can

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Speaker 5: take advantage of. And I just like where this offense

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Speaker 5: is trending for Dallas. So I'm happy to take the

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Speaker 5: three here. I can't wait for this one. It's a

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Speaker 5: fascinating chess match for both defensive coordinator. But give me

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Speaker 5: Dallas and their up trending offense in Philly.

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Speaker 3: I was pleasantly surprised to, you know, obviously to see

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Speaker 3: what the Cowboys did on offense, you know, coming out

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Speaker 3: aggressively and switching things up. But I was even more

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Speaker 3: pleasantly surprised to actually hear McCarthy and you kind of

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Speaker 3: talk through.

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Speaker 2: What he changed and what he saw and what he did.

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Speaker 3: And you know, that is big for Dallas and for

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Speaker 3: anyone that's backing them at you know, to go deep

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Speaker 3: in the playoffs or as a Super Bowl future, whatever,

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Speaker 3: because I think that, you know, we talked about this,

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Speaker 3: that was the biggest concern with Dallas was probably you know,

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Speaker 3: it was two things. There was the kicker, which he's

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Speaker 3: been great, and it was the coaching and the play call.

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Speaker 3: And it didn't start off great for Dallas. I mean

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Speaker 3: there's all these runs up the middle. They still haven't

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Speaker 3: really got pollared goings.

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Speaker 2: You know, the Eagles are what.

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Speaker 3: Are they seven in one now? But I've watching them play.

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Speaker 3: They just haven't been quite as good as their record.

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Speaker 3: It's a weird team. They're very good, but I think

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Speaker 3: Dallas is right there.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: For the third overall pick of the week nine Sunday

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Speaker 3: six pack, my second pick, I am going with the

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Speaker 3: Houston Texans minus two and a half against the Tampa

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Speaker 3: Bay Buccaneers. Also like the Houston money line if you

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Speaker 3: just want to avoid any shenanigans. They've been playing in

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Speaker 3: some close games. But listen, Houston is a better team here,

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Speaker 3: and I get a spot where I can back a

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Speaker 3: you know, the better quarterback, the better team. You know,

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Speaker 3: Houston sixteenth and DVOA thirteenth on offense and Tampa Bay's

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Speaker 3: twenty second in overall, DVA twenty fifth on offense.

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay's a little bit better on.

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Speaker 3: Defense, much worse on special teams, but overall offense is

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Speaker 3: always going to be the most important. And you know,

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Speaker 3: I tried it with this Tampa Bay team, you know,

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Speaker 3: going against Atlanta and Desmond, Ritter ritttered all over the

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Speaker 3: place and where they end up scoring like thirteen points,

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Speaker 3: they still couldn't get it done.

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Speaker 2: This team, predictably has. It's kind of done the way.

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Speaker 3: The Cardinals a little bit, not quite to that extent,

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Speaker 3: but we expected this team to be pretty bad.

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Speaker 2: And starting the year, I know I was.

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Speaker 3: I think we were both on the the Bucks against

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Speaker 3: Steve Minnesota Vikings because of course, and then they end

356
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Speaker 3: up beating the Bears by ten the next week. So

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Speaker 3: they start the year with two, you know, two and

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Speaker 3: oh straight up two and oh against the spread, they

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Speaker 3: have a plus thirteen point differential, and then they also

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Speaker 3: get that, you know, we were on that game that

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Speaker 3: win against New Orleans as well, where they you know,

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Speaker 3: Derek car and that that team just wasn't right at

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Speaker 3: that point. So you know, they've had they've kind of

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Speaker 3: lucked into some some wins early on against teams that

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Speaker 3: just weren't right. But since to Buy, they've come out

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Speaker 3: and it's just it's been ugly. The point differential is

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Speaker 3: negative twenty three, they're zero and three straight up.

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Speaker 2: They got we're really.

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Speaker 3: Lucky to kind of cover that game against Buffalo on

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Speaker 3: the night. I mean, just another one of those you

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Speaker 3: just kind of, you know, you took your hat to

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Speaker 3: the luck. But our luck rankings are kind of looking

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Speaker 3: at Tampa Bay as a team that is getting is

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Speaker 3: overachieving a ton. They are the fourth luckiest team, where

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Speaker 3: Houston's just middle of the pack. And I think Houston,

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Speaker 3: especially last week, got unlucky. I think Houston played well

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Speaker 3: enough to win that game. So one thing we have

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Speaker 3: seen from this Texan team, which you kind of expect

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Speaker 3: when you have a young quarterback and just a lot

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Speaker 3: of new things going on, they've been much better at home.

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Speaker 3: That Carolina game was in Carolina. The week before they

382
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Speaker 3: upset the Saints at home, and then the home game

383
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Speaker 3: before that they route the Steelers thirty six at home.

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Speaker 3: So I think Houston you can kind of expect the

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Speaker 3: better performance here back, you know, on their home field,

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Speaker 3: and after that rough start where c J.

387
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Speaker 2: Stroud was just getting sacked.

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Speaker 3: I think he took eleven sacks over the first two

389
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Speaker 3: games in their five games since because those first two

390
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Speaker 3: games you've lost both of them. You had a negative

391
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Speaker 3: twenty seven point differential in those first two games, since

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Speaker 3: you have a plus forty seven point differential, And I

393
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Speaker 3: think this offense with Tank Dell now back Nico Collins

394
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Speaker 3: playing well, They're starting to use singletary more in the

395
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Speaker 3: run game, which I think is beneficial because Pierce has

396
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Speaker 3: been struggling a little bit to pick up the scheme

397
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Speaker 3: at times.

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Speaker 2: So I think this Houston offense gets it done.

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Speaker 3: I think, you know, just you just have the more efficient,

400
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Speaker 3: better quarterback. And I don't think Tampa Bay is going

401
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:47,119
Speaker 3: to really be able to do much of anything on

402
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,679
Speaker 3: defense to disrupt that. You know, they're solid on defense.

403
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,680
Speaker 3: But I think and then Houston. You know, the real

404
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 3: edge for Tampa Bay against a team like Houston would

405
00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 3: be you should be able to run on Houston, but

406
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Speaker 3: Tampa Bay can't run, so that's kind of what you know,

407
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:03,200
Speaker 3: that's kind of wasted.

408
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 2: So Houston's gonna be able.

409
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Speaker 3: To kind of play the pass and do some things

410
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Speaker 3: against Mayfield and not really have to worry about that

411
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Speaker 3: buck running game. So I just think the matchup favores Houston.

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Speaker 2: I think they're a better team. So give me the

413
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Speaker 2: Texans under a field goal at home.

414
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Speaker 4: Yeah, this would have been one of my picks. You

415
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Speaker 4: took it.

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Speaker 5: I was I was mad that when this came through. Yeah,

417
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 5: I mean the Bucks are trending in the wrong direction.

418
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 5: Baker still has some regression coming under pressure where he

419
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,639
Speaker 5: is four touchdowns, no interceptions. You have the better quarterback

420
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 5: at home and mentioned Texans over the past five games

421
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,160
Speaker 5: or three and two with a pair of two point losses,

422
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Speaker 5: and the Bucks are blitzing a ton as they do

423
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 5: under balls, but they're not getting pressure, and that's basically

424
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Speaker 5: handicap with Stroud. Most quarterbacks are better in a clean pocket,

425
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Speaker 5: but that's even more so the case with Stroud and

426
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Speaker 5: just rookie quarterbacks in general. Stroud under pressure eighty seven dropbacks,

427
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 5: no touchdowns, no interceptions, no big time throws, four turnover

428
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:02,639
Speaker 5: worthy plays a sixty quarter grating when clean one hundred

429
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 5: and seventy seven drop backs, nine touchdowns, one interception, seven

430
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 5: big time throws, two turnover really plays, one hundred and

431
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 5: ten quarterback rating. He's also been good against the blitz

432
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,679
Speaker 5: one hundred and twelve rating. So if you're blitzik and

433
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,439
Speaker 5: not getting pressured, and that's just when he's you know,

434
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Speaker 5: he knows how to get the ball quick where to

435
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 5: go very quickly, but when you can get pressure and

436
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,719
Speaker 5: drop back sort of like the Baker Mayfield numbers. Stroud

437
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 5: is struggling, but the Bucks just aren't getting pressure even

438
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 5: though they're blitzing a ton.

439
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 4: So this is a good.

440
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 5: Matchupah, I think under three the Texans. Even from an

441
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,920
Speaker 5: EPA perspective, these defenses are pretty equal all in the year.

442
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 5: Texans also dealt with some injuries early in the season

443
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 5: at safety. Their offensive line had a ton of injuries.

444
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,479
Speaker 5: They're now healthier there, so yeah, I think the Texans

445
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 5: get it done. This would have been one of my

446
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 5: picks as well.

447
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:47,239
Speaker 2: All right.

448
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 5: For my second pick and the fourth overall the Week

449
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 5: nine Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Kansas City

450
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 5: Chiefs minus one and a half against the Miami Dolphins

451
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 5: in Germany. If I lose this gut, I won't care.

452
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 4: I don't care.

453
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 5: I mean, this is like a service academy catching a

454
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,160
Speaker 5: certain amount of points in college. I'll bet it every time,

455
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 5: and I know that I'm gonna come out on top

456
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 5: sixty seventy percent of the time.

457
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 4: You basically need Patrick Mahomes to win the game here.

458
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 4: That's it.

459
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 5: I will probably bet that till the end of days

460
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 5: for what it's worth. Just to go back on that

461
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 5: Mahomes is an underdog. To back that up, Mahomes is

462
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 5: an underdog. Are a favorite of three or less nineteen

463
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,640
Speaker 5: six and one against the spread, including the postseason seventy

464
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 5: six percent. That's pretty much all you need to know.

465
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 5: And look the Dolphins. Look, you're gonna hear you're gonna

466
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 5: have sharp money on the Dolphins because of some of

467
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 5: the issues with the Chiefs. You're gonna hear a lot

468
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 5: of good cases for the Dolphins. They might have be

469
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 5: sound arguments.

470
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 4: I don't care.

471
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 5: I need Patrick Mahomes at the end of the day

472
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 5: to win the game. The Dolphins are the shining new

473
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,719
Speaker 5: toy every couple of weeks after they beat clown cars

474
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 5: and then they get humble. This is what we've seen

475
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 5: this year. They beat six clowns this year. None of

476
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 5: them have a winning record. I mean you're talking also

477
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 5: the Giants with all their backups, the Panthers with their

478
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:05,120
Speaker 5: entire secondary out when they just were a complete mess

479
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 5: on offense, the broken Broncos before they before Vance Joseph

480
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 5: broke up from his bender, the Chargers and the Opener,

481
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 5: when when you had all those adjustments with that revenge game,

482
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 5: and then the Pats twice, Like, come on, they beat nobody,

483
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 5: and they stepped up in class in the same exact

484
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 5: price range against the Eagles and the Bills, and they

485
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 5: got beat soundly in each game by combined forty two points.

486
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 5: Chiefs know Tyreek. Well, Look, the Dolphins defense is a

487
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 5: lot of talent. Javon Holland practice, he should play. Ramsey

488
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 5: came back. But their parts are greater than the whole

489
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 5: as of right now. And this defense, which is a

490
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 5: complex defense under a highly respective new coordinator, it just

491
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 5: hasn't figured it out yet. Their metrics are even like

492
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 5: their individual metrics are even inflated by the absolute circus

493
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 5: offenses that they faced. Just look at what happened when

494
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:58,159
Speaker 5: they stepped up in class and the Chiefs defense in

495
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 5: the complete opposite end of the spectrum. There are some

496
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,640
Speaker 5: is greater than their parks and they're very well schooled.

497
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 5: And I think what's gonna happen here is Patrick Mahomes.

498
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 5: They had five turnovers with the flu last week. It

499
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 5: happens it was the Broncos Super Bowl, just one of

500
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,879
Speaker 5: those fluky games. He still is one of has one

501
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 5: of the lowest interception rates in NFL history. Tua is

502
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 5: much more mistake prone. I think the Chiefs defense is

503
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 5: going to ball up in the red zone. Also, speaking

504
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 5: of the red zone, the Dolphins are scoring touchdowns on

505
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:36,679
Speaker 5: seventy seven percent of their red zone drives, which is

506
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 5: number one in the NFL by a wide margin. It

507
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 5: helps when you get PI calls like they were getting

508
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 5: last week, and the Chiefs are around fifty percent, They're

509
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 5: usually around seventy percent, So there's some red zone regression here.

510
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 5: So I think this Chiefs defense is gonna be ready.

511
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 5: And look, the Chiefs are top five go by DVOI,

512
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 5: top five on offense, defense and special teams. One of

513
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 5: a handful of teams that can say that at this

514
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 5: point in the season. Over the last fifty years, the

515
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 5: Dolphins number one on offense, twenty two one D and

516
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 5: twenty five on special team. This is a big, big

517
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 5: special teams mismatch, which matters in a game with a

518
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 5: spread right around here. So and look the Dolphins d

519
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 5: it's improving. There's some nice pieces. They still have figured

520
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 5: it all the way out yet, and they still write

521
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 5: twenty second on defense. Dboa you got special teams advantage.

522
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 5: The Chiefs defense is still playing well. Last week they

523
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 5: got only that three point seven yards per play. Linebacker

524
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 5: injuries a little concerning because you're already down Bolton, You're

525
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 5: probably gonna be down Willye Gay. But I think that

526
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 5: this look, it's just Mahomes.

527
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 4: I need him to win.

528
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 5: Bouncing back from last week, You're gonna get everything in

529
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 5: the Chiefs Arsenal. It's a huge game and at the

530
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 5: end of the day, I'll trust Pat and if I

531
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 5: go down, it'll be okay. I'll do it again next time.

532
00:26:58,480 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 5: That the he's a one point favorite.

533
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is this is a tough cap for me.

534
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:03,959
Speaker 3: I mean, it's not a tough cap as much as

535
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 3: it is. I am kind of in line with the

536
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 3: market and because it's such, but you have two teams

537
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 3: that in theory should or are able to score a

538
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 3: lot of points. So there's a lot of variance for me.

539
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 3: But you know you said this before and I can't

540
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 3: knock you for it. To take the best quarterback on

541
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 3: the planet when he's a dog or a favorite under

542
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 3: a field goal, he's just automatic pretty much almost so

543
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 3: can knocket Excited for the game, Let's go into my

544
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 3: third and final pick, the fifth overall of the week,

545
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 3: Number nine, Sunday six pack. I mean, if you want

546
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 3: to go out here and just back Patrick Mahomes and

547
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 3: I got to, you know, back Jarrett Hall, right, I

548
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 3: mean Minnesota plus four and a half at the Atlanta Falcons.

549
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 3: Like this Falcon. This is kind of a similar cap

550
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 3: to the Patriots. For me, this team should not be

551
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 3: favored by four and a half against many teams. This

552
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 3: is a This is a bad Falcon team right now. Yes,

553
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 3: they're starting Heinike and can't be much worse than Desmond Ritter.

554
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 2: But he's not gonna be some savior.

555
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 3: I know he came in and had a pretty efficient,

556
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,880
Speaker 3: you know whatever second half. But we've seen this over

557
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 3: and over with backup quarterbacks. You know, the opponent wasn't

558
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 3: even to prepare for them, and so you know they

559
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 3: come in, they play well well. Now, I think Minnesota

560
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 3: has the advantage here because you hardly have seen any

561
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 3: film on Haul. You know, we've seen Heinike, He's been

562
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 3: in the league for years now, Paul is still relatively

563
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 3: new out of BYU. I like that he gives Minnesota

564
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 3: a quarterback with some wheels because you're not going to

565
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,719
Speaker 3: be able to run on Minnesota can't run like period,

566
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 3: that's just not what you do. Yeah, Atlanta's great on

567
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 3: run defense. That's really where their defense has improved most.

568
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 3: They are number one.

569
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 5: Minnesota doesn't run, but yeah, exactly what I was curious

570
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:03,720
Speaker 5: to get your thoughts on here. But then does Minnesota

571
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 5: need to run it with a backup quarterback? That's that

572
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 5: was wondering what your handicap was.

573
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 2: There two things.

574
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 3: Number One, now you have the option of quarterback runs,

575
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 3: RPO concepts, things that you just didn't have with Kirk Cousins.

576
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 3: Number Two, those schemes and concepts also tend to help

577
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 3: your actual running game. You know, if the quarterback's a threat,

578
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 3: now you could start, you know, making a defender, you know,

579
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 3: commit to either the quarterback or the or the ball

580
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 3: carrier and you can get some things going there.

581
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 2: So again, I think not only.

582
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 3: Haul in terms of his traits, but just the uncertainty,

583
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 3: the lack of you know, the lack of experience, I mean,

584
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 3: the lack of film on him.

585
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 2: I think this helps Minnesota in this spot.

586
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 3: And then you just look at these teams otherwise, and

587
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 3: like Atlanta is twenty fifth in overall DVLA, twenty four

588
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 3: on offense, twenty fifth on defense, twenty sixth on specialty.

589
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 3: This is not a good Falcon team, you know, I

590
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 3: know we were bush on him to get the division.

591
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 3: Hey they still have a shot, but not looking great

592
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 3: here mil Minnesota. They've been solid, you know, fifteenth in

593
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 3: overall DVA so, you know, above average, fourteenth on offense.

594
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 3: Now obviously that goes down, but I think what's really

595
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 3: been a pleasant surprise top ten on in defensive DVOA

596
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 3: Brian Flores finding a way to mix it up enough

597
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 3: because you know, he says, hey, I don't need to

598
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 3: blitz to get pressured all the time. Sometimes he just

599
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 3: blitzed to confuse the opposing quarterback. Well, now you're playing

600
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 3: top Tara Heinike who Why did he get benched last year?

601
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 2: Why is he on a different team? Because he led

602
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 2: the league.

603
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 3: In turnover where he play rate last year and he

604
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 3: was the second lowest graded courquarter back out of forty

605
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 3: one qualifiers, I head of only Zach Wilson. So let's

606
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 3: not act like Heinanke's this big savior. And this is

607
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 3: when you want to fade Atlanta home favorites three and

608
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 3: eight against the spread as home favorites under Arthur Smith

609
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 3: just six and fourteen against the spread at home period

610
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 3: under Arthur Smith. And remember they were starting Desert River

611
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 3: for a while, who does nothing but played well at home.

612
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 3: They might have veged him at the wrong time here,

613
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 3: but I love the uncertainty. I think it's just way

614
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 3: too many points. I actually had Minnesota as a slight favorite,

615
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 3: you know, if Cousins was in the line, even without Jefferson.

616
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 3: So the Vikings actually may have the best better quarterback.

617
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 3: We don't know because we just haven't seen enough of

618
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 3: all but fade and this Falcon team getting four and

619
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 3: a half points with Minnesota.

620
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, the one thing I would worry about is

621
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 5: back in a recent BYU quarterback, right, So it's tough

622
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 5: to get it's tough to get a great read on

623
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 5: BYU quarterbacks. It'll be better now that they're in the

624
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 5: Big twelve, but you're just not facing like elite defenses,

625
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 5: you know, week in and week out. It does conserve

626
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 5: me that Minnesota probably won't be able to run to

627
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 5: like just help them out and settle into the game.

628
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 5: But you know, with Heineke, is he going to try

629
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 5: and make crazy throws? There's a lot of variance with him,

630
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 5: and you don't like him as a favorite. He tries

631
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 5: to fit too many balls in the tight windows, so

632
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 5: there could be some turnovers here. So taking the dog

633
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 5: with super low total and a lot of uncertainty, I

634
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 5: don't hate it, but I don't have a strong feel

635
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 5: for this game. For my third pick and the sixth

636
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 5: overall of the Week nine Sunday six pack, I'm going

637
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 5: with the Baltimore Ravens minus five and a half against Seattle.

638
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 5: Seahawks show a little bit of value on this. You

639
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 5: took Houston, so this was my fourth favorite pick. I

640
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 5: do think the Ravens role here. You know, the line

641
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 5: is pretty sharp, but I think that they're going to

642
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 5: I have the Ravens out power at a number one

643
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 5: in the NFL. There's really I think there's secondary is

644
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 5: still a bit overrated, but other than that, there's really

645
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 5: no weaknesses on this team. The offense is rolling, it's

646
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 5: hit its stride, and everything is clicking. And you're going

647
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 5: up against the Seattle defense that you know, some people love.

648
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 5: I don't I dug into the Seattle defense. I think

649
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 5: that they're right for the picking here. I mean, let's

650
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 5: let's look with that I've done this year Seattle's defense

651
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 5: this year gave up thirty, thirty one and twenty seven

652
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 5: to start the year against the Panthers, Lions, and Rams,

653
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 5: and that was without Cup the Dalton starting, which was

654
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 5: probably better for the Panthers despite and the Panthers had

655
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 5: like thirteen I think they had eight or nine fall

656
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 5: star penalties. Since then, everyone's changed their narrative on the

657
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 5: Seattle d They've played the Giants with you know you

658
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 5: me are two producers and grab your guy off the

659
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 5: street on the offensive line, which has inflated their pressure

660
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 5: numbers across the and their defensive numbers across the board.

661
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 5: They're still below average by some advanced metrics too. So

662
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 5: they played the Giants Hamper Burrow before the bye when

663
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 5: that offense was just stuck. Dobbs in the Cardinals and

664
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 5: PJ Walker in the Browns who were actually moving the

665
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 5: ball all over on the Seattle defense, that's at the Giants,

666
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 5: the pre by Bengals, the Cardinals, and the Browns with

667
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 5: PJ Walker so like. So I think that this defense

668
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 5: is right to get picked apart by Lamar Jackson, who

669
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 5: is eighteen and one straight up against the NFC, never

670
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 5: lost at home. Why is that a thing. It's because

671
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,879
Speaker 5: these teams don't see Lamar Jackson and when they see

672
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 5: him for the first time, right, A lot of times

673
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 5: you only playing these NFC teams once not used to

674
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 5: his speed, and it is very problematic.

675
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 4: We saw that with Detroit. They were I.

676
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 5: Mean, Hutchinson's still spinning in circles, still in a washing

677
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 5: machine from that game, trying to chase around Lamar. The

678
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 5: linebackers had no shot. I see similar advantages here. So

679
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 5: I think the Ravens jump out early, hold on for

680
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 5: the cover.

681
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:03,440
Speaker 4: I like the minus five and a half.

682
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 5: I think they win this game by at least a touchdown,

683
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 5: but I'm going to say ten plus.

684
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,760
Speaker 3: I mean, number one, please just cover the Ravens again

685
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 3: to make up for what they did to me last week.

686
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 3: But number two, yeah, just get this out of your

687
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 3: system now so you don't have to go betting this.

688
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 3: This Ravens Browns game that's gonna come up again. And

689
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 3: I know there's gonna be s Shenanigans with that. But

690
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,879
Speaker 3: don't really have a great feel for whether to lay

691
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 3: the points here. But my cab on this game. You know,

692
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 3: early in the week I do the pot with Kerner

693
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 3: and you know, we do you know, a quarterback for

694
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 3: high and Lolan in every position, And for me it

695
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 3: was Gino Smith was a guy on loan because yeah,

696
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 3: I think that Baltimore's defense is just one of the

697
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 3: more well equipped, maybe the best equipped to slow down

698
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 3: this Seattle offense. Yeah, I don't hate it because I

699
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 3: do think Gino will struggle and that's that's a big

700
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 3: part of slow in Seattle.

701
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:55,760
Speaker 2: Now, looking at the six pack you.

702
00:35:55,640 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 3: Use actually took all the you know, popular national televis games,

703
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 3: and I just got one of you got you got

704
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 3: my Homes, you got Dak, and you got Lamar. Meanwhile

705
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 3: I got Sam Howe, h C. J. Stroud not bad

706
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 3: but uh, and then Jared Hall. So it's a big discrepancy.

707
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 3: But that's how it shakes it. I feel like this

708
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:23,719
Speaker 3: is like reverse Usually, yeah, you have the uglier, yeah quarterbacks, but.

709
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 6: I was took Stroud. I was gonna have Stroud too.

710
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 3: It should be a great sway because you have you

711
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 3: have the Marquee games, but then you have all these

712
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 3: other intriguing matchups and I'm sure I'm gonna have a

713
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 3: ton of props this week too, uh, just because there's

714
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 3: just so much kind of newness and uncertainty and and

715
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,399
Speaker 3: and I think angles to attack, so look out for that.

716
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 3: But to recap the six pack, Stut has Dallas plus three,

717
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 3: Kansas City minus one and a half, and the Ravens

718
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:53,879
Speaker 3: minus five and a half. I have the Commanders plus

719
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,360
Speaker 3: three and a half, the Texans minus two and a half,

720
00:36:56,440 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 3: and the Minnesota Vikings plus four and a half. All right,

721
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 3: that was our Sunday six pack, and now it is

722
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 3: time for our Week nine coaches pep talk. This is

723
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 3: by far the worst team that has ever sat in

724
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 3: this locker room.

725
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 2: Do for locker room you should be playing. There's not

726
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 2: one of you, not one of you, that's learned how

727
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:17,839
Speaker 2: to win.

728
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,839
Speaker 3: This week's coaches pep talk comes to us from the

729
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 3: two thousand film The Patriot, and we're gonna dedicate it

730
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 3: to dedicated to the Commanders, since they're going up against

731
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:34,720
Speaker 3: the Patriots and need the Patriots nice to start falling

732
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 3: again after a brief respit against the Buffalo Bills a

733
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 3: couple weeks ago.

734
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 2: So we're gonna dedicate to the Commanders.

735
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 7: Half the men in this church, including you, are as

736
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 7: ardent Patriots as I will. You know when you were

737
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 7: needed most stop at only words, is that the sort

738
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 7: of men you are? I ask only that you act

739
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 7: upon the beliefs of which you have so strongly spoken

740
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 7: and in which you so strongly believe.

741
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 3: Let's get this done, patriots. These l's coming for the

742
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:10,760
Speaker 3: patriots against the spread. All right, now it's time four

743
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 3: our favorite total of the week. All right, stutt we

744
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 3: both whiffed on our totals last week. Back to the

745
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 3: drawing board this week. I went first to the six pack.

746
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 3: Where you're going with your total?

747
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, my overrun came to an end in devastating fashion.

748
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 5: I thought that there was life and then the Panthers

749
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 5: just kept turning it over in shotgun. But by the way,

750
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 5: why the panthers gonna use? I thought everybody is Dalton

751
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 5: as a sneaker, and then they just don't do they

752
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 5: don't do that, by the way, for what it's worth,

753
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:41,919
Speaker 5: going back to the six pack, just to talk about

754
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 5: the lines, because someone asked me to talk about the

755
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 5: A couple people asked me to talk about more about

756
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 5: like when you would bet them? I think in your

757
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 5: case you would agree. I mean vikings, you can bet

758
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 5: now it's in the dead range, doesn't really matter. Texans,

759
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:55,240
Speaker 5: you want to get now under three, and then Commanders,

760
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 5: you want to get now because you don't you want

761
00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 5: to get that before it goes to three. I'm taking

762
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:02,879
Speaker 5: the Cowboy now plus three. I think it probably closed there,

763
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,360
Speaker 5: but I can see some Sharper groups hitting Dallas and

764
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 5: it getting in it coming down. But that you just

765
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:09,800
Speaker 5: get the three. It's not gonna go to three and

766
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 5: a half, right, I shouldn't say it's not. I don't

767
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 5: think it's gonna go to three and a half. Ravens,

768
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 5: you know there's five and a half out there. Get

769
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 5: the five and a half under six. It's not gonna

770
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:21,919
Speaker 5: go down, so you can pit that now. And then

771
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 5: with the Chiefs, I'm actually waiting minus one and a

772
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 5: half in the six pack, but it's under three. I

773
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 5: anticipate them like Sharper Miami money and Chiefs Fade money

774
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 5: to come in. So I'm gonna see if it gets

775
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 5: to one. So I'm waiting there because I don't think

776
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 5: it's gonna go to three. So I just wanted to

777
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 5: get down out a way off. But for my favorite total,

778
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 5: I'm going with Brown's Cardinals under thirty seven and a half,

779
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 5: super low total year with I don't think there's gonna

780
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:50,840
Speaker 5: be much weather in Cleveland, even though there usually is

781
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,359
Speaker 5: this time of the year. This is a big, big

782
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 5: Browns defense back bounce back game. You know, they give

783
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:57,919
Speaker 5: up the explosive of the Colts last week, they played

784
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 5: well against Seattle, gave up the late school or but

785
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 5: this is still, for my money, the best defense in

786
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 5: the NFL. Even though they've been statistically the best defense,

787
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 5: there's still twenty ninth in red zone touchdown percentage, so

788
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 5: there's some regression coming there. I don't know how the

789
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 5: cardinal score. To be honest, Clayton Tune is going to

790
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 5: get the start. I also am assuming PJ. Walker is

791
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,919
Speaker 5: getting the start for the Browns, So what does that mean?

792
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 5: And I don't I don't for what it's with. I

793
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 5: don't know that like there is a chance Kyler Merrayle,

794
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 5: So there is a chance that wats it could start.

795
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 5: From everything that I've gathered, I think it's gonna be

796
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 5: there what PJ. Walker verus Clayton Tune. So what I

797
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 5: think after what's happened with the Browns, Like, the Browns

798
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 5: have to be pretty happy with where they're at, considering

799
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 5: they've had to play PJ.

800
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 4: Walker.

801
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 5: They almost stole three straight games, although they should have

802
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 5: won last week, but they stole two games before they

803
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 5: could have lost on a field goal to the forty

804
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 5: nine Ers missed that and they got a beneficial call

805
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 5: in pets interference. But I think what Stefancy saw last

806
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 5: week is all right, Yeah, you don't want a PJ.

807
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 5: Walker to make a key mistake. You can do that,

808
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 5: as you know against the as an underdog against the Seahawks.

809
00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 5: I think here with the Ravens on deck, what you

810
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 5: see the Browns do, it's a clearly inferior opponent. Lean

811
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 5: on the run game, lean on your defense, very conservative

812
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 5: game plan. I just don't know how Arizona scores against

813
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 5: this pissed off Browns day at home. I think there's

814
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 5: a good chance they pitch a shut out. Give me

815
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 5: the under thirty seven and a half. This is the

816
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 5: worst possible scenario for a rookie quarterback making his first

817
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 5: start on the road against the best defense in the NFL,

818
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:24,879
Speaker 5: pissed off after a loss, where they can just man

819
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 5: up and take away your receivers while getting pressure. Going

820
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 5: up against the best edge rusher of the NFL, Miles

821
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 5: Garrett like, who I feel bad for Clayton Tune all right.

822
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:39,240
Speaker 3: For my total, I'm going with a first half under

823
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 3: for this one, and it is the Packers rams first

824
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 3: half under nineteen and a half. Green Bay has just

825
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 3: been really bad with their scripted portion, and I think

826
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 3: there's been a few coaches that are just like the

827
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 3: lusters come off Gables definitely one of them. I think

828
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 3: with floor is another one. I just I mean obvious

829
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 3: Slee McDaniels. It's it's, you know, they was never any

830
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 3: luster to begin with, but not really loving what I'm

831
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 3: seeing coaching wise out of this Packer team. And I

832
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 3: know you were highing them coming into the year, but

833
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 3: they've just underachieved wildly. And you know, we're eight, you know,

834
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:17,319
Speaker 3: seven eight games, we're half the seasons done now. So

835
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 3: I looking at some of the data, it's it's more

836
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 3: than just okay.

837
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 6: Even script do they even come up to the script?

838
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's called punt punt, punt, punt, But I

839
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 3: mean it's bad. So but again, in terms of the

840
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 3: NFL sample sizes, a lot of things are going to

841
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 3: start to stabilize, you know, from you know, starting about

842
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 3: week five or six, and and all, you know into

843
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 3: the middle of the year when you could start really

844
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 3: you're not adding as much regression to the mean as

845
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 3: you would, you know, first few weeks, a lot more

846
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 3: uncertainty and randomness and things like that. So this we've

847
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 3: played half the season now, this Packer team is averaging

848
00:42:56,719 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 3: four point one points per game in the first half

849
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 3: in Lambo, which was supposed to be it's supposed to

850
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 3: be a big home field advantage, but maybe that was

851
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 3: just Aaron Rodgers. There was an advantage for him because

852
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 3: of you know, all the things he's able to do

853
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 3: pre snap, but at home.

854
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:15,959
Speaker 2: Two points per game in the first half.

855
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:16,360
Speaker 4: Two.

856
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:20,399
Speaker 3: So the first half under for the Packers this year

857
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 3: has gone five one and one, and I expect that

858
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 3: to continue because this Ram offense, more likely than not,

859
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 3: is going to start Brett Ripping. And I was hoping

860
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 3: that we kind of get a line similar to this,

861
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 3: that Falcons game where you Packers will be favored by

862
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 3: four and at four four and a half, and I

863
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 3: would have taken, you know, just taken a shot on

864
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 3: Ripping and the Ram team as an underdog. But Rip

865
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 3: is just really bad and somehow he's actually covered two

866
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 3: out of the three starts he's made in his career.

867
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 3: But Bro's like a ridiculous amount of turnover where he plays.

868
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:57,839
Speaker 3: Once you get into the second half, all bets are off.

869
00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 3: That's when the Packers have been better. And is ram

870
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 3: defense a bit overachieving a little bit but not great.

871
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 3: That the Packers are averaging about sixteen points a game

872
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 3: in the second half, you know, just four in the

873
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,320
Speaker 3: first half, So this is the way to kind of attack.

874
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 2: Packer totals is Betham under in the first half. That's

875
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 2: where I'm going. Oh native, all right, So just to recap.

876
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:25,720
Speaker 3: Stuck has Cleveland Arizona under thirty seven and a half.

877
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 3: I have Green Bay Rams first half under nineteen and

878
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 3: a half. Doubt we'll get to twenty. You know that's

879
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 3: more of a key number, but you know, nineteen and

880
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 3: a half nineteen all the same for me.

881
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:41,319
Speaker 2: Let's go to our favorite teaser of the week.

882
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

883
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:58,319
Speaker 8: Don't tease me these, Stuck.

884
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 3: You've got seven and one on this pod this year

885
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 3: on teases, I'm five and three. So you are just

886
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 3: in a completely different zone right now with these, So

887
00:45:05,560 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 3: definitely everyone listening, go check that out. If you're interested

888
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 3: and diving deeper. We have to keep it brief here

889
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 3: so we can get through the pod. So where are

890
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 3: you going with your teaser for this week?

891
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, let's tease. Let's go with a classic long teaser

892
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 5: and teas through seven and three. And by the way,

893
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:28,840
Speaker 5: I think moving forward teasing from two and a half

894
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:31,239
Speaker 5: up to eight and a half and eight and a

895
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:34,359
Speaker 5: half and that most importantly, but two and a half

896
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 5: up to eight and a half with an underdog will

897
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 5: end up being even more valuable over time because you

898
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 5: know more teams are going to go for two. You know,

899
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 5: when they're down fourteen and they score, You'll see more

900
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 5: games and eight than seven in the future. So let's

901
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 5: tease the Panthers up from plus two and a half

902
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 5: to plus eight and a half at home against the Colts.

903
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 5: I think the Panthers offense will continue to get better.

904
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 4: Their defense has gotten some guys back on the back end.

905
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 5: I mean, if you look at some of their games

906
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:05,799
Speaker 5: they've played this year, they played without basically their entire

907
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:08,800
Speaker 5: secondary in some of the games, so their defensive metrics

908
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 5: are way whereas defense looked a lot better last week.

909
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 4: Really liked their defensive coordinator.

910
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:17,000
Speaker 5: And the Colts defense is a mess right now, I

911
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 5: mean it is mass Yeah, Bradley, du Gus Bradley. You

912
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 5: also lost Grover Stewart, who hurts your run dye. The

913
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 5: secondary was always a mess.

914
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:31,400
Speaker 4: So yeah, I like.

915
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 5: And then look that you also have a low total

916
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:37,319
Speaker 5: here of forty four. Ideally you want to try when

917
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 5: you tease these under forty eight, under forty seven's and

918
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:44,399
Speaker 5: under forty five is ideal less variance. And then I'm

919
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:47,240
Speaker 5: going to tease another low total here, tease a favorite

920
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 5: from eight and a half to two and a half.

921
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 5: Going with the Saints, I liked what I saw from

922
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 5: the offense. Finally with Derek Carr, we knew that it

923
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 5: was going to take some time. There's still probably be

924
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 5: some growing pains, but it was a new system. I

925
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,280
Speaker 5: liked what I saw. And they're playing now, uh clown

926
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 5: car defense. Yeah, I'm surprised Ryan Poles didn't trade a

927
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 5: first round draft pick for another linebacker. But Bears defense

928
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:12,560
Speaker 5: still horrible and it's Tyson Bagent that party ended last week.

929
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:14,960
Speaker 5: Saints defense should be able to shut down the Bears here.

930
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 5: So yeah, Saints and Panthers a little NFC South teaser.

931
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going with the exact same one. And these

932
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 3: are two teams I don't belie we've had backed either

933
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:29,359
Speaker 3: all year because these are the two teams, along with

934
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:32,320
Speaker 3: the coach, who have proven me deet wrong. I actually

935
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 3: like what the Colts are. They're they're just overachieving. I mean,

936
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 3: they're still bad, but you know these two teams. You know,

937
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 3: Panthers didn't do it. They not covered till last week, right,

938
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 3: that was the first time they covered. So yeah, that's

939
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 3: that's been a good one. And then yeah, the Saints

940
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 3: have had some disappointing losses, but I will say I'm

941
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 3: seeing what I need to see to start backing them

942
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 3: now in spots. You know, the Saints offense has put

943
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 3: up over four hundred toty yards in each of the

944
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 3: last games four thirty four oh seven and five to

945
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 3: eleven last week, which is they have the talent, so

946
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 3: it's about time. And then the Panthers, they got did

947
00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 3: the one thing that you know, I really thought they

948
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 3: needed to do, which was get Frank give Frank right

949
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 3: less power, so they you know, now no longer call plays.

950
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 3: You know, only fifteen points in that game against Houston.

951
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 3: But it's tough matchup, and I think Demico and that

952
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 3: defense by the end of the year probably look a

953
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 3: lot better than maybe they're given credit for now, so

954
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna hold that against them too much. But overall,

955
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 3: I thought Bryce Young looked better and I think SATs

956
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 3: offense looks better. So yeah, don't mind teasing these teams

957
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 3: this week in both in really good spots and the

958
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 3: fact that the Bears couldn't even you know, keep the

959
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 3: Chargers in a one possession game. I mean that that

960
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 3: says all you need to know, because you know the Chargers,

961
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 3: I mean, that's their m That's all they do is

962
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 3: play one possession games, and if they don't, they're usually

963
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:58,080
Speaker 3: on the losing end.

964
00:48:58,160 --> 00:48:58,959
Speaker 2: So the fact that they.

965
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 3: Were able to blow them out does not It's not

966
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 3: good for Beijing.

967
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 2: The jig is up.

968
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 3: So yeah, Carolina up to eight and a half and

969
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:10,359
Speaker 3: whore On's down to one and a half. And as

970
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:12,759
Speaker 3: we'll go into our moneyline Dog in a second. But

971
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 3: as a reminder, the Action Network podcast is presented by

972
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:20,279
Speaker 3: bet MGM use bonus code Action when signing up to

973
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:24,080
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974
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975
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:38,040
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976
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:42,120
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977
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:46,680
Speaker 3: Gam wing problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right,

978
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 3: time for our week nine underdog money line.

979
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:50,240
Speaker 2: Paul Lady.

980
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

981
00:49:58,080 --> 00:49:59,400
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

982
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:02,879
Speaker 2: You had the Titans last week, so another.

983
00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 3: Good good call for you. I had the who I

984
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 3: have the Steelers? Yeah, they they were, They just did

985
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:13,319
Speaker 3: not did not show up. So where are you going

986
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 3: this week to keep it going well?

987
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:18,439
Speaker 5: Going back to overly a quarterback uncertainty take the dog.

988
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:21,399
Speaker 5: So the Raiders are gonna start Aidan O'Connell a lot

989
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 5: of uncertainty. If they were the dog, I would take

990
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 5: them here. But the Giants' dog, Daniel Jones.

991
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 4: Will be back.

992
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 5: And look what the Raiders defense is doing. It's not

993
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 5: talented outside of Max Crosby is They're just they just

994
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:35,719
Speaker 5: try to take away the explosive play that's why they're

995
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:37,879
Speaker 5: under gods, and you just have to work your way

996
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:40,360
Speaker 5: down the field. And that is all they want to

997
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:42,360
Speaker 5: do is don't prevent explosive plays, make you work for it.

998
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 5: Then hopefully you make a mistake, you know, throw a

999
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:48,359
Speaker 5: pick six like gofted or you know, fumble because they

1000
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 5: just don't have a lot of talent on that defense.

1001
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 5: But that's that's actually fine for the Giants. Like the

1002
00:50:53,520 --> 00:50:56,879
Speaker 5: Giants run it with Barkley short passes, like they taking

1003
00:50:56,880 --> 00:51:00,319
Speaker 5: away the explosiveness of the Giants offense. It does nothing right,

1004
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:02,400
Speaker 5: Like that's absolutely nothing.

1005
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 2: What is actually think, Mark we a five yard run

1006
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 2: instead of a four yard run.

1007
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:08,319
Speaker 5: Yeah, So, like this is a good matchup for the

1008
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:12,399
Speaker 5: Giants and their defense is playing really well lately. Wig

1009
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 5: Martindale has them bawling out. I mean the last couple

1010
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 5: of games against the Bills and the Jets, they've been dominant.

1011
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 5: So they're trending up as well. A new coach too,

1012
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 5: Like so you gotta and this has happened very rapidly,

1013
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 5: so a lot of uncertainty there. It's not like you're

1014
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 5: having to coach here that has much experience at the

1015
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:43,080
Speaker 5: NFL level and Antonio Pierce for the Raiders, So yeah,

1016
00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:46,080
Speaker 5: let's go with the Giants and hope the quarterback uncertainty

1017
00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:47,720
Speaker 5: with O'Connell works in our favor.

1018
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 3: It's but I'm curious to hear your opinion on the

1019
00:51:53,120 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 3: benching of Jimmy Garoppolo for Aidan O'Connell, because it sounds

1020
00:51:57,200 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 3: it's one of those things where I think it's kind

1021
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:02,399
Speaker 3: of simil lit a car last year with even if

1022
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 3: you don't say, like flat out it's for the rest

1023
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:07,120
Speaker 3: of the year, it's kind of hard to come back

1024
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:09,040
Speaker 3: from that with it got you know, the veteran like

1025
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:12,319
Speaker 3: Jimmy G who's so you know, well known and generally liked,

1026
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 3: Like it seems a little like an overreaction like O'Connell. Yeah,

1027
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 3: you do want to see him at some point over Hoyer, obviously,

1028
00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:22,800
Speaker 3: But I mean, Jimmy Garoppol is not the first quarterback

1029
00:52:23,040 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 3: to miss a couple of throws. Like if you acquire

1030
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:27,520
Speaker 3: Jimmy G, like you've seen the tape, you know you

1031
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:29,319
Speaker 3: can miss some of those, especially down the field. So

1032
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:32,200
Speaker 3: I'm just curious as to what your thoughts were as

1033
00:52:32,239 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 3: far as the benching of Garoppolo.

1034
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 4: I think, uh, DeVante Adams.

1035
00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 5: Scott went into Mark Davis's office and not to talk

1036
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 5: with him.

1037
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:44,919
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I mean it could be league.

1038
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:49,280
Speaker 5: Mark Davis put basically said, all right, fired the GM

1039
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 5: the head coach off, it's a coordinator in the quarterback,

1040
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 5: it's for Adams, so we'll see how it works out.

1041
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:56,800
Speaker 5: But I think that's basically what probably happened. And Okay,

1042
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 5: the Raiders aren't going anywhere this year, so it's not

1043
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:01,120
Speaker 5: the end of the world. I mean, this is a

1044
00:53:01,160 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 5: lost season. Let's let's just see what O'Connell has. You

1045
00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 5: already know what you're gonna get with Jimmy g So,

1046
00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:09,400
Speaker 5: but I think that Adam's probably had a lot of

1047
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:10,440
Speaker 5: influence in this decision.

1048
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 3: I was thinking about the Giant back in the Giants too,

1049
00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:15,399
Speaker 3: and I do think it's better to just go straight

1050
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:18,439
Speaker 3: up money line here. But you know, do we get

1051
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:21,239
Speaker 3: you know, Antonio Pears is the former Giant, so like,

1052
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 3: do we just get like, you know, like a Saturday

1053
00:53:24,239 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 3: type of situation, like new coach boost or something.

1054
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1055
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 4: Historically you had a little bit of a boost in

1056
00:53:30,600 --> 00:53:32,200
Speaker 4: the NFL New looks.

1057
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 5: There's an element of surprise, But I think that's taken

1058
00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:38,840
Speaker 5: away a little bit with you know, you have a

1059
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:41,400
Speaker 5: now you have a backup quarterback young in there, so

1060
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:43,840
Speaker 5: it kind of wipes wipes that edge out. And I

1061
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 5: think it's a good matchup for the Giants. So yeah,

1062
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:49,960
Speaker 5: let's let's roll with the Giants and you're going with

1063
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:51,600
Speaker 5: what you're going with another New York team.

1064
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:54,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go Buffalo here.

1065
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,279
Speaker 3: Listen, love Cincinnati last week and then we had to

1066
00:53:57,760 --> 00:53:59,840
Speaker 3: I actually didn't even get the best of the number

1067
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 3: because the concussion protocol hit while uh we were recording,

1068
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:07,879
Speaker 3: and then you know, I thought for sure he's gonna

1069
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:09,200
Speaker 3: be out and then he wasn't.

1070
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:12,319
Speaker 2: But either way, Cincinnati got the job done. Uh.

1071
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 3: And now I think you're getting a little bit of

1072
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 3: value here on Buffalo. Who Yeah, they're they're still not

1073
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:22,280
Speaker 3: they still haven't hit their stride those injuries on defense,

1074
00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:25,600
Speaker 3: But I do like the acquisition of Douglas and uh,

1075
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,319
Speaker 3: this is the time you want to back this Buffalo

1076
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:30,840
Speaker 3: bill team. You know, we saw them give up the

1077
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 3: cover against Tampa Bay. But as an as a money

1078
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 3: line dog with Josh Allen starting, they've won outright in

1079
00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:41,319
Speaker 3: five of their last seven. Uh in that spot, So

1080
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 3: uh quoudy Bengals team. But you know, Buffalo is gonna

1081
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:48,960
Speaker 3: have this spot circled after the Bengals uh ended their

1082
00:54:49,040 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 3: season last year in the playoffs, and that was, you know,

1083
00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 3: coming off the emotional uh Deamar Hamlin situation in the

1084
00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:58,280
Speaker 3: regular season. So you know, the Bills just want to

1085
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:00,080
Speaker 3: get you know, get out and get right. And I

1086
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 3: I did think, you know, Josh Allen, it wasn't just

1087
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:04,360
Speaker 3: whip service when he was saying, all right, you know,

1088
00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:07,200
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna kind of get back to being myself.

1089
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:09,560
Speaker 3: And I just thought, you know, he was playing a

1090
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:11,560
Speaker 3: lot quicker and you know, they were doing some things

1091
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:14,160
Speaker 3: with tempo and so you're gonna get a good game

1092
00:55:14,160 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 3: plan out of Cincinnati.

1093
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:17,960
Speaker 6: But was really good.

1094
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 2: Cincinnati tight ends they really struggled with.

1095
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:22,240
Speaker 3: So you know the fact that King Cage is breaking

1096
00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:24,520
Speaker 3: out at the right time, I think adds another weapon

1097
00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 3: to this offense. So like the Bills in this spot

1098
00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 3: as a short money line dog, I just think this

1099
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:33,320
Speaker 3: is a toss up game and the Bengals are you know,

1100
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 3: hitting their stride. I think the Bills are getting back

1101
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:39,200
Speaker 3: to in a good spot offensively as well. And you know,

1102
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 3: Douglas will definitely help the past defense.

1103
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:45,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, we'll see if Douglas plays like that's true, worried

1104
00:55:45,520 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 5: about like it was fun on the injury report today

1105
00:55:47,840 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 5: the Bills in you report, it's a d m P.

1106
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:53,600
Speaker 5: And then his reasoning was, just got here, that's what

1107
00:55:53,600 --> 00:55:54,200
Speaker 5: the Bills put.

1108
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 2: Eight extra hours, so you know, someday that game, but.

1109
00:55:57,600 --> 00:55:59,799
Speaker 5: He'll definitely you can't. You gotta get them out of there.

1110
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 5: I was hoping this got to three. I would lean

1111
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 5: the Bills as well, like them as a moneyline dog here.

1112
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 4: I actually also like.

1113
00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:09,760
Speaker 5: The over which keeps getting hit and I keep waiting

1114
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:12,239
Speaker 5: and not hitting it. It was gonna be my favorite total.

1115
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 5: And then it went to forty and a half. And

1116
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:15,040
Speaker 5: then it went to forty nine and a half.

1117
00:56:15,640 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 6: So the Bills since their injuries in.

1118
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:20,839
Speaker 5: All then they lost basically three guys who could have been,

1119
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:23,880
Speaker 5: you know, all pro caliber players, one at each level,

1120
00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:26,880
Speaker 5: and then the replacement level players have been over this

1121
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:29,000
Speaker 5: many times are just to drop off as massive. They've

1122
00:56:29,040 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 5: been a BOTI five defense since then, and also for

1123
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:33,759
Speaker 5: the season they faced one of the easiest schedules of

1124
00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:38,400
Speaker 5: opposing offenses, so that defense is still nowhere close to

1125
00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 5: what it was last year, and the Bengals defense is

1126
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:44,919
Speaker 5: much worse than it was last year. Their safeties are down.

1127
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:48,799
Speaker 5: Trey Hendrickson didn't practice today. That's massive. Trey Hendrickston. If

1128
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:54,360
Speaker 5: you look at like a chart of a chart of

1129
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 5: a pass rush over expectation, if you like adjusted for

1130
00:57:00,920 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 5: if you justed for opponent, and well, yeah, end situation too.

1131
00:57:05,239 --> 00:57:13,840
Speaker 5: Miles Garrett is like a different stratosphere, then it's Nick Bosa, Parsons,

1132
00:57:14,360 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 5: and Hendrickson. I mean, that's that's how good he's been

1133
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:22,400
Speaker 5: in your next levels like Crosby for Shawn, Gary, DeMarcus Lawrence,

1134
00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 5: Chase Young, Hutchinson, t J. Watt. So yeah, he's been

1135
00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:32,200
Speaker 5: absolutely fantastic. So if he's out, the safety's been bad.

1136
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:35,400
Speaker 5: So this Bengals defensive, you know, they're nowhere close it

1137
00:57:35,480 --> 00:57:37,520
Speaker 5: was good. Let's I mean, look, they gave up, they

1138
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:39,440
Speaker 5: started going to They gave up twenty four and twenty seven.

1139
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 5: They had a goodffortverst the Rams in primetime must win situation.

1140
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:46,360
Speaker 5: Since then, they give up twenty seven and four hundred

1141
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:50,800
Speaker 5: yards to the Titans. That old Titans offense was ShredIt them.

1142
00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:54,160
Speaker 5: They gave up twenty to the Cardinals. They only give

1143
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:57,920
Speaker 5: up seventeen to Seattle four hundred yards. Seattle just vomited

1144
00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:01,440
Speaker 5: in the red zone seventeen to nine four hundred and

1145
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 5: sixty yards. Both those teams just had a ton of

1146
00:58:04,040 --> 00:58:07,919
Speaker 5: turnovers and then bad red zone luck. So and both

1147
00:58:07,920 --> 00:58:10,000
Speaker 5: of these defenses have been good in the red zone,

1148
00:58:10,040 --> 00:58:12,800
Speaker 5: where I don't think that they profile is great red

1149
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 5: zone defenses. So there's probably some regression coming there. If

1150
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 5: you go back to these games meetings last year, obviously

1151
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,720
Speaker 5: they didn't play one with the unfortunate Hamlin situation, that

1152
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 5: total was forty eight and a half. The playoff meeting

1153
00:58:27,360 --> 00:58:30,400
Speaker 5: in weather total was forty nine. So you're telling me

1154
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:32,840
Speaker 5: that the total should be the same where these are borrowing.

1155
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:36,120
Speaker 5: That offense is back Allen, they put up, they were

1156
00:58:36,200 --> 00:58:38,520
Speaker 5: moving the ball. Will that one of the best offense

1157
00:58:38,560 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 5: in the NFL. And both these defenses are way down.

1158
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:44,120
Speaker 5: So I think part of this is the lower scoring

1159
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:46,080
Speaker 5: environment in the NFL, but I don't think that has

1160
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:47,760
Speaker 5: anything to do with this game. I think this is

1161
00:58:47,800 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 5: a good old fashioned shootout. I think this is a total.

1162
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:54,880
Speaker 5: It should be fifty and a half, fifty one, fifty

1163
00:58:54,920 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 5: one and a half, and I think this goes back

1164
00:58:57,720 --> 00:59:01,720
Speaker 5: to forth fun fun game, and yeah, I think basically

1165
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 5: like who comes who as the ball asked, possibly, so

1166
00:59:05,280 --> 00:59:07,640
Speaker 5: I like this as a money one dog.

1167
00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:13,440
Speaker 3: Yes, So our luck rankings have this over expected to

1168
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:16,880
Speaker 3: go over like by eight point six points. That is

1169
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:20,440
Speaker 3: the second highest of the week and one of the

1170
00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:22,800
Speaker 3: highest of the years. So that essentially means that both

1171
00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:26,760
Speaker 3: teams have kind of performed eight combined to perform eight

1172
00:59:27,240 --> 00:59:29,280
Speaker 3: eight and a half points under you know where they

1173
00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:33,200
Speaker 3: should be scoring, whether it's offensively or defensively.

1174
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 5: So yeah, defense has been very very fortunate number. I mean,

1175
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:38,600
Speaker 5: look at the Giants game. The Giants, first the Bills,

1176
00:59:39,120 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 5: I mean the Giants were at the one fifty times,

1177
00:59:42,720 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 5: didn't score any points. So and then the Bengals. I mean, look,

1178
00:59:46,000 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 5: you have Christian McCaffrey fumbling at the ten last week.

1179
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 2: You have Party through the ball right to it like

1180
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:52,200
Speaker 2: a lineman or something.

1181
00:59:52,320 --> 00:59:55,360
Speaker 5: Right, you have the Seahawks game where the Seahawks just

1182
00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:58,360
Speaker 5: got down to the road zone eight eight red zone

1183
00:59:58,560 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 5: two times the.

1184
00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:00,720
Speaker 4: Last two minutes was zero points.

1185
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:04,640
Speaker 5: So yeah, both these defenses have been overperforming and are

1186
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:07,760
Speaker 5: a step below last year. Both offenses. Now, now we've

1187
01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:11,080
Speaker 5: seen with Burrow. Both offenses are right at the same level,

1188
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:13,000
Speaker 5: so this total shouldn't be at the same level was

1189
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 5: last year.

1190
01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 3: Well, the Giants are plus one hundred and the Bills

1191
01:00:18,040 --> 01:00:20,960
Speaker 3: plus one ten, so both three short dogs in these

1192
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 3: spots rightfully so.

1193
01:00:22,720 --> 01:00:25,280
Speaker 2: But if for parliam you get plus three twenty.

1194
01:00:25,480 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 4: So.

1195
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:28,520
Speaker 2: Do with that as you will.

1196
01:00:29,400 --> 01:00:31,240
Speaker 3: We've got through all the games, so no best of

1197
01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:34,640
Speaker 3: the rest, no meaningful to some in this at the

1198
01:00:34,760 --> 01:00:37,440
Speaker 3: end here, but we'll go right into Survivor and then

1199
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:40,320
Speaker 3: get out of here the.

1200
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:47,680
Speaker 1: Survivor pool pick of the week.

1201
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:52,920
Speaker 3: All right, So last week Ravens at least they got

1202
01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:57,400
Speaker 3: to win but did not get the cover, but have

1203
01:00:57,560 --> 01:01:01,040
Speaker 3: used Washington the Giants, which is kind of wild considering

1204
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 3: the state of both of those teams Kansas City, San Francisco, Miami, Buffalo, Seattle,

1205
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:10,920
Speaker 3: Baltimore through the first eight weeks. I this is a

1206
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:16,160
Speaker 3: tough week. I would lean it's either Saints or Cleveland.

1207
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:19,400
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna you know what I'm gonna I'm

1208
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:21,560
Speaker 3: gonna go. I'm gonna go.

1209
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:24,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm gonna go Saints here.

1210
01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:27,960
Speaker 5: Saints playing a clown division and I haven't even looked

1211
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:30,919
Speaker 5: at these schedules because I've been out since thanks Russ.

1212
01:01:31,200 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 5: But like after this, Browns are at Ravens, Steelers at

1213
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 5: Broncos at Rams, Jags they do with the Bears in

1214
01:01:38,800 --> 01:01:41,000
Speaker 5: week fifteen at home. But I haven't looked at the

1215
01:01:41,000 --> 01:01:44,120
Speaker 5: Saints schedule, So I'm curious your thoughts those two because

1216
01:01:44,120 --> 01:01:45,680
Speaker 5: those are two the ones that I would have looked

1217
01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:46,280
Speaker 5: at as well.

1218
01:01:46,440 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the so the Browns are my initial pick.

1219
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:51,600
Speaker 3: But I just you know, as we say here earlier

1220
01:01:51,600 --> 01:01:53,600
Speaker 3: in the week, it's like we have more of a

1221
01:01:53,720 --> 01:01:57,560
Speaker 3: known quantity I think with you know, what's going on

1222
01:01:57,720 --> 01:02:00,200
Speaker 3: with the Saints and the Bears game, like.

1223
01:02:02,480 --> 01:02:04,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, there's just and I mean we so yeah,

1224
01:02:04,920 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 2: we could get PJ.

1225
01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:08,560
Speaker 3: Walker against Kyler Murray instead of Deshaun Watson against Klayton Tune,

1226
01:02:08,560 --> 01:02:10,560
Speaker 3: so like that that kind of changes things.

1227
01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:14,680
Speaker 2: And I you know, we record this on Wednesday.

1228
01:02:14,240 --> 01:02:19,240
Speaker 3: So obviously, you know, if we have a discoord we have,

1229
01:02:19,480 --> 01:02:21,040
Speaker 3: you can hit me up on Twitter if you really

1230
01:02:21,120 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 3: want to know if anything's changed. But I try to

1231
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:26,120
Speaker 3: give you know, kind of look ahead and make sure

1232
01:02:26,200 --> 01:02:28,600
Speaker 3: nothing silly happened, So I don't think it would be

1233
01:02:29,520 --> 01:02:34,400
Speaker 3: I just couldn't recommend going Browns this early in the week,

1234
01:02:34,440 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 3: like if everything held and we're getting Watson against Tune especially,

1235
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:42,440
Speaker 3: but he even lots, you know, even getting Watson, I

1236
01:02:42,440 --> 01:02:44,439
Speaker 3: don't know how much that's worse right now because he's

1237
01:02:44,440 --> 01:02:48,280
Speaker 3: been playing poorly. So, you know, I just think Cleveland

1238
01:02:48,320 --> 01:02:50,920
Speaker 3: is at least I think if they're a bigger risk

1239
01:02:50,920 --> 01:02:53,960
Speaker 3: for an upset like your Bears already had their upset.

1240
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 3: Saints are hitting their stride and you know, just a

1241
01:02:59,600 --> 01:03:02,080
Speaker 3: just a a little bit more uncertainty with this, you know,

1242
01:03:02,160 --> 01:03:05,720
Speaker 3: this Cardinal team, like who knows. So yeah, I think

1243
01:03:06,320 --> 01:03:08,280
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna go. We're gonna go Saints here,

1244
01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:11,360
Speaker 3: even though that famous last words, wat watch the Saints

1245
01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:15,160
Speaker 3: just drop this one somehow, But we'll go Saints here

1246
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:18,840
Speaker 3: because it's Wednesday, all right. So that is going to

1247
01:03:19,120 --> 01:03:24,240
Speaker 3: wrap it up for our Week nine Action Network podcast,

1248
01:03:24,240 --> 01:03:28,600
Speaker 3: presented by Bett MVM, the King of Sports Books. We'll

1249
01:03:28,600 --> 01:03:31,240
Speaker 3: be back every Thursday all season long. You can hear

1250
01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 3: more of me this week with my guy Kerner talking

1251
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:38,160
Speaker 3: fantasy dfs all that good stuff on the Fantasy Flex

1252
01:03:38,200 --> 01:03:42,480
Speaker 3: podcast and also the Player Projections Pod, which is out

1253
01:03:42,520 --> 01:03:45,440
Speaker 3: on this channel and be sure to check out that

1254
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:49,600
Speaker 3: Discord server link will be in the episode description, and

1255
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:53,640
Speaker 3: you can, of course here Stucky talking about college football

1256
01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:57,000
Speaker 3: on the Big Bets on Campus pod that dropped every

1257
01:03:57,320 --> 01:04:01,120
Speaker 3: Friday morning. Stuff is on x formerly Twitter at Stucky two,

1258
01:04:01,640 --> 01:04:04,920
Speaker 3: I am at Chris Raybon Rethos Sat Handel's on the

1259
01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:08,800
Speaker 3: three award winning Action Network app. And so next time,

1260
01:04:08,840 --> 01:04:16,720
Speaker 3: let's get this one plea dope.

1261
01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:22,400
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1262
01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:24,920
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1263
01:04:24,960 --> 01:04:27,760
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