WEBVTT - Why a Vaccine Won't Create Instant Immunity 0:00:04.240 --> 0:00:09.280 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one thirty 0:00:09.360 --> 0:00:14.680 eight since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:19.919 While drugmaker's race to develop a safe and effective vaccine, 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:24.840 making one is just the first challenge. The global supply 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:28.120 chain is not ready for what it takes to distribute 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:34.600 an eventual vaccine to billions of people. But first, here's 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:46.160 what happened in virus news today. The virus has found 0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:50.560 its way into a younger demographic around the world. Infections 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:55.400 among millennials and Generation Z are driving new waves of cases, 0:00:56.160 --> 0:01:00.240 and even where restrictions have been reimposed, they are aren't 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:06.240 abating easily. A major challenge psychological fatigue with social distancing, 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:11.959 especially as the pandemic drags into its eighth month. Young 0:01:12.000 --> 0:01:16.319 adults are both less fearful of the coronavirus and face 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:21.039 greater economic and social costs when they stay home. The 0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:25.440 trend may be a sign that social distancing is untenable 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:29.720 over a long period, even though doing so flatten the 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:35.080 virus curve in many places. Earlier this year, Google will 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:39.440 keep its employees home until at least next July. According 0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:42.920 to a report, by Dow Jones. That makes the tech 0:01:43.000 --> 0:01:48.040 giant the first major US corporation to formalize such an 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:53.680 extended timetable in the face of the pandemic. Finally, some 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:58.120 insight into a potential vaccine. Once we've developed one, we 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:00.960 may need to get a shot every year, just like 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:05.080 the flu shot. Kate Bingham, head of the UK's COVID 0:02:05.200 --> 0:02:10.000 Vaccine Task Force, told Bloomberg TV that an initial dose 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:14.919 will probably reduce the severity of symptoms and that continued 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:19.880 treatment will be needed to maintain immunity. Bingham said people 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:24.120 who have had COVID don't show long lasting immunity, and 0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:27.880 her task force is seeing a decline in antibodies that 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:32.480 get generated after infection. A sterilizing vaccine that would prevent 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:37.880 infection completely is still being pursued. Bingham also said it's 0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:41.320 unlikely any vaccine would be ready before the end of 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:50.880 this year. Vaccine challenges are also the subject of today's 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:55.840 main story. An effective vaccine is seen as the world's 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:59.720 greatest hope for achieving some kind of return to normal, 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:04.760 and the timeline for developing one has been sped up dramatically. 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:08.520 But as hard as it's going to be to make 0:03:08.600 --> 0:03:12.240 a vaccine quickly. Once we do, we'll have a new 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:17.920 problem getting it to billions of people. The industries that 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:21.160 move goods around the world on ships, planes, and trucks 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:25.959 acknowledge they aren't ready to handle the epic challenges involved 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:30.520 in shipping an eventual vaccine to the world. I talked 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:34.600 to reporter Brendan Murray who explains how difficult it will 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:38.280 be for the global supply chain to distribute and administer 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:48.920 the drug. So what are some of the issues with 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:53.240 getting vaccines into the hands of billions of people? So 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:57.080 the pharmaceutical companies are are scaling up in a massive 0:03:57.160 --> 0:04:00.480 way to try to deliver this UH and out to 0:04:00.520 --> 0:04:04.960 the coronavirus to billions and billions of people potentially. At 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:08.480 the same time, the global economy is scaling down in 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:12.600 a big way. That means ocean shipping companies, air freight 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:16.000 companies are scaling back capacity to deal with the slower 0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:18.560 demand that the global economy is throwing off. So you 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:23.360 have these conflicting forces creating a lot of challenges to 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:25.839 to deliver UH. You know what could be you know, 0:04:25.920 --> 0:04:29.080 three or four or five billion vaccines to two people 0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:32.080 around the world. Now you have you know, a couple 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:35.440 of other complications, one of the main ones being this 0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:38.400 vaccine is likely going to need to be, if not frozen, 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:42.680 very close to freezing, and you maintained all throughout the 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:45.680 transportation process. So uh, you know, there's really are real 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:49.200 questions about whether there's capacity there to do that in 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:53.320 any massive way that's going to be required. Now, you know, 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:56.960 we've seen issues with supply chains before during this crisis. 0:04:57.000 --> 0:05:00.600 Obviously earlier on and I mean even continuing to now, 0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:04.600 there have been issues about getting um, personal protective equipment 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:09.159 or ppe to healthcare workers, to everyone around the world. Now, 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:14.240 why is the question of the vaccine and distribution a 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:17.920 little bit different from that issue that we saw earlier? Right? 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:21.480 I think most people would say, uh, if you're looking 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:25.000 at it objectively, that supply chains, you know, we're bent 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:28.479 and stretched, but they never really broke. Now. You you 0:05:28.520 --> 0:05:32.200 did see shortages of things like toilet paper or even 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:35.320 you know, medical equipment, UM, but the systems that are 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:40.920 designed to deliver products, you know, international supply chains essentially 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:45.720 caught up pretty quickly and resolve that situation. With the vaccine, 0:05:46.000 --> 0:05:50.480 you have, as I said, you know, billions of people. 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:52.680 They are going to need this, uh. And one of 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:55.839 the experts that I listened to last week said that, 0:05:56.360 --> 0:06:00.800 you know, it takes one Boeing Triple seven to carry 0:06:00.839 --> 0:06:05.360 a million doses, so a thousand triple sevens to carry 0:06:05.400 --> 0:06:08.280 a billion. So if a billion people are going to 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:12.119 get two doses of this, that's two thousand triple seven 0:06:12.160 --> 0:06:15.000 cargo planes full of them. And it's it's the vaccine 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:16.520 isn't going to come all at once. It's going to 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:20.240 come millions of doses at a time, and there's just 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:23.520 no telling when exactly that's going to happen. And that 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:26.479 creates problems for if you if you're a shipping company, 0:06:26.920 --> 0:06:29.799 an ocean freighter company, or or an air cargo company, 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:32.719 you need to know, uh, you know when that's coming 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:35.279 to be able to gauge the uh, the the amount 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:37.800 of capacity you're going to devote to it to the 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:40.599 demand side. And again, you know that the world economy 0:06:40.680 --> 0:06:43.240 is not going to stop and wait for vaccines to 0:06:43.240 --> 0:06:45.360 be delivered. You know they're going to have to do 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:47.880 this on top of all the other pushing and pulling 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:50.560 that you know, supply and demand are doing at the 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:53.520 same time. And I was wondering if You might dig 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:57.240 into that a little bit more. As you mentioned this, 0:06:57.240 --> 0:07:02.279 this demand for international resources supplies. Obviously, if and when 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:05.800 there's a vaccine, that means that there will be distribution 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:11.200 and demand needed globally. But we're also seeing this simultaneously 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:14.040 at a point where a lot of world economies are 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:18.640 contracting or even kind of slowing down their supply chains. 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:21.640 I mean, what is the push pull there of how 0:07:21.680 --> 0:07:25.480 do we distribute something globally when the global supply chains 0:07:25.520 --> 0:07:28.000 are no longer as strong as they were even say 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:30.720 a year ago. Yeah, exactly. It's a good point, and 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:33.560 particularly at a time when you know this is going 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:38.160 to take global coordination. The the issue that that I've 0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:41.280 heard in the past week or so from the experts 0:07:41.400 --> 0:07:44.880 is that there is no coordinated strategy right now. You 0:07:44.920 --> 0:07:47.440 have to start thinking about this stuff now. If it's 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:50.280 going to happen in six months. You can't just sort 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:52.800 of fire up a bunch of cargo planes and and 0:07:52.600 --> 0:07:56.080 and make this happen. So it's a difficult time to 0:07:56.200 --> 0:08:00.480 do so. Supply chains are stretched, countries are are saying 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:03.640 or we don't want production coming from overseas anymore. They're 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:08.640 getting very protectionists with the production of particularly drugs and 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:12.640 medical gear. You know, in an environment where uh, you know, 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:16.160 countries are already a skeptical of working with others uh 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:19.840 and dealing dealing with you know, cross border movement of 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:23.280 of things, particularly as as as vital as as a vaccine. 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.560 You know, you could see all sorts of protectionism breakout 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:29.520 and kind of the you know, the strong survive or 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:32.560 the the wealthier country survive at the at the expense 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:35.000 of of of other countries. There was an expert I 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:38.520 heard this week who said, how are these vaccines going 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:41.480 to get to you know, a rural area in Mozambique 0:08:41.920 --> 0:08:45.360 or upen into mountains in Peru if it needs to 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:47.920 be refrigerated. I mean, the short answer is it's going 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:49.520 to take a long time if it ever gets to 0:08:49.600 --> 0:08:54.040 places like that. On top of the issue of global economies, 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:56.600 I mean, we're also looking at a crisis point in 0:08:56.640 --> 0:09:00.480 the airline industry itself, obviously in the wake of the 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:04.240 pandemic um What are some of the unique challenges that 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:07.720 the airline industry in particular is facing in terms of 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:12.960 logistics distributing this vaccine. So the airline industry has both 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:16.760 curtailed the supply of the capacity of of air cargo, 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:19.640 because when passengers aren't flying, the bottom half of that 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:22.319 plane is not filled with cargo. So they have both 0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:25.439 you know, when they grounded planes that left, uh that 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:28.640 the air air cargo capacity and a real in a 0:09:28.679 --> 0:09:32.160 real crunch. Now, the flip side of that is you 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:36.040 can turn a passenger plane into into one that haul's cargo. 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:38.320 It it takes time and money, but they but they, 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:41.000 but they've been able to do that. Emirates I believe 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:45.280 has seventy Triple seven's former passenger planes that are now 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:49.240 running cargo around the world. So that's that's the other 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:52.079 reason why you need to plan ahead because the airline 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:55.400 industry is not expecting this downturn to be you know, 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:57.720 to last for you know, a couple or several more months. 0:09:57.720 --> 0:09:59.679 They're looking at this over the next two to three 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:04.199 years and try and gauge how much air carbo capacity 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:08.760 there is is just basically impossible right now. And let's 0:10:08.800 --> 0:10:13.679 finally talk timelines. There are several candidates right now in 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:19.040 trials um there are numerous attempts to make a successful 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:22.120 vaccine all over the world, and a lot of people 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:24.560 are saying that we actually have quite a bit of 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:28.160 time before we can really expect to see a successful vaccine. 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:31.760 Will this amount of time in some way do you 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:35.400 think give us the time we need to prepare for 0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:39.560 this distribution on a global scale. Well, that's one of 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.120 the reasons why I think people in the in the 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:45.960 transportation shipping logistics industry are kind of raising the alarm 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:50.319 right now because the most optimistic scenario is the first 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:53.520 doses are available by the end of the year. Most 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:56.559 realists would say it's probably more like, you know, the 0:10:56.960 --> 0:11:00.720 first quarter or middle of next year before are tens 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:03.000 of millions of these are going to be available. So 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:06.559 that's that's a wide uh, you know, timetable to to 0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:12.280 plan how much how much airlift capacity you're gonna need. So, yeah, 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:14.240 I think it's going to be a real there's a 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:17.000 real question mark. Um. And as soon as that timetable 0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:20.520 is clearer than than the transportation folks can, can you 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:22.679 get a plan together to do it? You know that 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:26.600 the fallback is if the private industry can't do this, 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:30.600 you know, then you you could conceivably see the governments 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:35.600 in various countries, maybe even the military takeover that that role. 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:43.400 That was Brendan Murray in London, and that's it for 0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:45.920 our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:51.280 bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:54.480 and if you like the show, please leave us a 0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:58.720 review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:02.040 the best way to help more steners find our global reporting. 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:07.199 The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Tophor foreheads Jordan Gaspore, 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:12.240 Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:17.400 reported by Brendan Murray. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our 0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:22.240 editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. Francesco Levi is 0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:25.400 Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.