1 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one thirty 2 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 1: eight since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. 3 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:19,919 Speaker 1: While drugmaker's race to develop a safe and effective vaccine, 4 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: making one is just the first challenge. The global supply 5 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: chain is not ready for what it takes to distribute 6 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 1: an eventual vaccine to billions of people. But first, here's 7 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: what happened in virus news today. The virus has found 8 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,560 Speaker 1: its way into a younger demographic around the world. Infections 9 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: among millennials and Generation Z are driving new waves of cases, 10 00:00:56,160 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 1: and even where restrictions have been reimposed, they are aren't 11 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: abating easily. A major challenge psychological fatigue with social distancing, 12 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: especially as the pandemic drags into its eighth month. Young 13 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:16,319 Speaker 1: adults are both less fearful of the coronavirus and face 14 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 1: greater economic and social costs when they stay home. The 15 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 1: trend may be a sign that social distancing is untenable 16 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: over a long period, even though doing so flatten the 17 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: virus curve in many places. Earlier this year, Google will 18 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: keep its employees home until at least next July. According 19 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 1: to a report, by Dow Jones. That makes the tech 20 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: giant the first major US corporation to formalize such an 21 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: extended timetable in the face of the pandemic. Finally, some 22 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 1: insight into a potential vaccine. Once we've developed one, we 23 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: may need to get a shot every year, just like 24 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: the flu shot. Kate Bingham, head of the UK's COVID 25 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: Vaccine Task Force, told Bloomberg TV that an initial dose 26 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 1: will probably reduce the severity of symptoms and that continued 27 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 1: treatment will be needed to maintain immunity. Bingham said people 28 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: who have had COVID don't show long lasting immunity, and 29 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: her task force is seeing a decline in antibodies that 30 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: get generated after infection. A sterilizing vaccine that would prevent 31 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 1: infection completely is still being pursued. Bingham also said it's 32 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: unlikely any vaccine would be ready before the end of 33 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 1: this year. Vaccine challenges are also the subject of today's 34 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: main story. An effective vaccine is seen as the world's 35 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 1: greatest hope for achieving some kind of return to normal, 36 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: and the timeline for developing one has been sped up dramatically. 37 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: But as hard as it's going to be to make 38 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 1: a vaccine quickly. Once we do, we'll have a new 39 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: problem getting it to billions of people. The industries that 40 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 1: move goods around the world on ships, planes, and trucks 41 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:25,959 Speaker 1: acknowledge they aren't ready to handle the epic challenges involved 42 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: in shipping an eventual vaccine to the world. I talked 43 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: to reporter Brendan Murray who explains how difficult it will 44 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 1: be for the global supply chain to distribute and administer 45 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: the drug. So what are some of the issues with 46 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: getting vaccines into the hands of billions of people? So 47 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: the pharmaceutical companies are are scaling up in a massive 48 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: way to try to deliver this UH and out to 49 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: the coronavirus to billions and billions of people potentially. At 50 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: the same time, the global economy is scaling down in 51 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 1: a big way. That means ocean shipping companies, air freight 52 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: companies are scaling back capacity to deal with the slower 53 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: demand that the global economy is throwing off. So you 54 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 1: have these conflicting forces creating a lot of challenges to 55 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,839 Speaker 1: to deliver UH. You know what could be you know, 56 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: three or four or five billion vaccines to two people 57 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: around the world. Now you have you know, a couple 58 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 1: of other complications, one of the main ones being this 59 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: vaccine is likely going to need to be, if not frozen, 60 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: very close to freezing, and you maintained all throughout the 61 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 1: transportation process. So uh, you know, there's really are real 62 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 1: questions about whether there's capacity there to do that in 63 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 1: any massive way that's going to be required. Now, you know, 64 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: we've seen issues with supply chains before during this crisis. 65 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 1: Obviously earlier on and I mean even continuing to now, 66 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 1: there have been issues about getting um, personal protective equipment 67 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 1: or ppe to healthcare workers, to everyone around the world. Now, 68 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: why is the question of the vaccine and distribution a 69 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 1: little bit different from that issue that we saw earlier? Right? 70 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:21,480 Speaker 1: I think most people would say, uh, if you're looking 71 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: at it objectively, that supply chains, you know, we're bent 72 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 1: and stretched, but they never really broke. Now. You you 73 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 1: did see shortages of things like toilet paper or even 74 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 1: you know, medical equipment, UM, but the systems that are 75 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 1: designed to deliver products, you know, international supply chains essentially 76 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 1: caught up pretty quickly and resolve that situation. With the vaccine, 77 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 1: you have, as I said, you know, billions of people. 78 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 1: They are going to need this, uh. And one of 79 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,839 Speaker 1: the experts that I listened to last week said that, 80 00:05:56,360 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 1: you know, it takes one Boeing Triple seven to carry 81 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: a million doses, so a thousand triple sevens to carry 82 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 1: a billion. So if a billion people are going to 83 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:12,119 Speaker 1: get two doses of this, that's two thousand triple seven 84 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: cargo planes full of them. And it's it's the vaccine 85 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: isn't going to come all at once. It's going to 86 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: come millions of doses at a time, and there's just 87 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 1: no telling when exactly that's going to happen. And that 88 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,479 Speaker 1: creates problems for if you if you're a shipping company, 89 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,799 Speaker 1: an ocean freighter company, or or an air cargo company, 90 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 1: you need to know, uh, you know when that's coming 91 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 1: to be able to gauge the uh, the the amount 92 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: of capacity you're going to devote to it to the 93 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 1: demand side. And again, you know that the world economy 94 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 1: is not going to stop and wait for vaccines to 95 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 1: be delivered. You know they're going to have to do 96 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 1: this on top of all the other pushing and pulling 97 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 1: that you know, supply and demand are doing at the 98 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: same time. And I was wondering if You might dig 99 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: into that a little bit more. As you mentioned this, 100 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 1: this demand for international resources supplies. Obviously, if and when 101 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: there's a vaccine, that means that there will be distribution 102 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 1: and demand needed globally. But we're also seeing this simultaneously 103 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 1: at a point where a lot of world economies are 104 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: contracting or even kind of slowing down their supply chains. 105 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 1: I mean, what is the push pull there of how 106 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 1: do we distribute something globally when the global supply chains 107 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: are no longer as strong as they were even say 108 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: a year ago. Yeah, exactly. It's a good point, and 109 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: particularly at a time when you know this is going 110 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: to take global coordination. The the issue that that I've 111 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 1: heard in the past week or so from the experts 112 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: is that there is no coordinated strategy right now. You 113 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 1: have to start thinking about this stuff now. If it's 114 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: going to happen in six months. You can't just sort 115 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 1: of fire up a bunch of cargo planes and and 116 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 1: and make this happen. So it's a difficult time to 117 00:07:56,200 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: do so. Supply chains are stretched, countries are are saying 118 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: or we don't want production coming from overseas anymore. They're 119 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: getting very protectionists with the production of particularly drugs and 120 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 1: medical gear. You know, in an environment where uh, you know, 121 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: countries are already a skeptical of working with others uh 122 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 1: and dealing dealing with you know, cross border movement of 123 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: of things, particularly as as as vital as as a vaccine. 124 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: You know, you could see all sorts of protectionism breakout 125 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: and kind of the you know, the strong survive or 126 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 1: the the wealthier country survive at the at the expense 127 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: of of of other countries. There was an expert I 128 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 1: heard this week who said, how are these vaccines going 129 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 1: to get to you know, a rural area in Mozambique 130 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: or upen into mountains in Peru if it needs to 131 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: be refrigerated. I mean, the short answer is it's going 132 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 1: to take a long time if it ever gets to 133 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: places like that. On top of the issue of global economies, 134 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: I mean, we're also looking at a crisis point in 135 00:08:56,640 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 1: the airline industry itself, obviously in the wake of the 136 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: pandemic um What are some of the unique challenges that 137 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 1: the airline industry in particular is facing in terms of 138 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 1: logistics distributing this vaccine. So the airline industry has both 139 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: curtailed the supply of the capacity of of air cargo, 140 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: because when passengers aren't flying, the bottom half of that 141 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,319 Speaker 1: plane is not filled with cargo. So they have both 142 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,439 Speaker 1: you know, when they grounded planes that left, uh that 143 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 1: the air air cargo capacity and a real in a 144 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 1: real crunch. Now, the flip side of that is you 145 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 1: can turn a passenger plane into into one that haul's cargo. 146 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 1: It it takes time and money, but they but they, 147 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 1: but they've been able to do that. Emirates I believe 148 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 1: has seventy Triple seven's former passenger planes that are now 149 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 1: running cargo around the world. So that's that's the other 150 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,079 Speaker 1: reason why you need to plan ahead because the airline 151 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 1: industry is not expecting this downturn to be you know, 152 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: to last for you know, a couple or several more months. 153 00:09:57,720 --> 00:09:59,679 Speaker 1: They're looking at this over the next two to three 154 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 1: years and try and gauge how much air carbo capacity 155 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: there is is just basically impossible right now. And let's 156 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 1: finally talk timelines. There are several candidates right now in 157 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: trials um there are numerous attempts to make a successful 158 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 1: vaccine all over the world, and a lot of people 159 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 1: are saying that we actually have quite a bit of 160 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 1: time before we can really expect to see a successful vaccine. 161 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 1: Will this amount of time in some way do you 162 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 1: think give us the time we need to prepare for 163 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 1: this distribution on a global scale. Well, that's one of 164 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 1: the reasons why I think people in the in the 165 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: transportation shipping logistics industry are kind of raising the alarm 166 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 1: right now because the most optimistic scenario is the first 167 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 1: doses are available by the end of the year. Most 168 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,559 Speaker 1: realists would say it's probably more like, you know, the 169 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 1: first quarter or middle of next year before are tens 170 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: of millions of these are going to be available. So 171 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:06,559 Speaker 1: that's that's a wide uh, you know, timetable to to 172 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: plan how much how much airlift capacity you're gonna need. So, yeah, 173 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a real there's a 174 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 1: real question mark. Um. And as soon as that timetable 175 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 1: is clearer than than the transportation folks can, can you 176 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 1: get a plan together to do it? You know that 177 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 1: the fallback is if the private industry can't do this, 178 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 1: you know, then you you could conceivably see the governments 179 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 1: in various countries, maybe even the military takeover that that role. 180 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 1: That was Brendan Murray in London, and that's it for 181 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one 182 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus 183 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 1: and if you like the show, please leave us a 184 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 1: review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's 185 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 1: the best way to help more steners find our global reporting. 186 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 1: The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Tophor foreheads Jordan Gaspore, 187 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was 188 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 1: reported by Brendan Murray. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our 189 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. Francesco Levi is 190 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.