1 00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, it's bull season. 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:11,800 Speaker 2: You're in for quite to day, folks, it's the most 3 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 2: wonderful time. 4 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:21,440 Speaker 3: What's up the general nation? Welcome Big Bets on Campus podcast. 5 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 3: This is the College Football Ball Betting Preview, Part four. 6 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 3: I'm stucky in joining me, as always is Colin Wilson. 7 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 3: We have balls through year's it's not New Year's Day, 8 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:40,520 Speaker 3: January second, and we're going to cover the college football 9 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 3: playoff semi finals. 10 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 4: If that doesn't what your wrapper card, you're. 11 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 3: Watching the wrong channel. It's been so long since we've 12 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 3: seen some of these teams. I'm excited to talk about it. Colen, 13 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 3: how's ball season going so far? And you're ready to 14 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 3: do I think we're gonna disagree on least at least 15 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 3: TCU Michigan, which I'm excited about. Yeah. 16 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, we got a few disagreements coming here. But no 17 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 5: ball season has been great. I think I've emotionally overcome 18 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 5: from the UTSA referee show that got Troy to the window. 19 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 5: And you know bois not covering the opener of five 20 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 5: and a half or covering any number period. 21 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 6: Really the only. 22 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 5: Two losses that stick out to me. I was pretty 23 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 5: happy to get in to Mexico State under the window. 24 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 5: That was a little bit of a sweat with Bowling 25 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 5: Green coming on hot there at the end, but you 26 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 5: know both season has been good. 27 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 3: Same here. Hopefully I can keep it going. We have 28 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 3: so much action left that we all can keep going 29 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 3: to the window right until the National Championship. By the way, 30 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 3: we will have a episode late next week for the 31 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 3: National Championship. We will award our Haiti Smith Caller of 32 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 3: the Year for calling into the voicemails. Appreciate everyone who 33 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 3: did that all year. And then we will also award 34 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 3: our fifth annual Gambling Heisman Trophy Award. So excited about that. 35 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 3: We will cover nine bowls in total, including the College 36 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 3: Football Playoffs semi finals today. We will get to those 37 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 3: two games at the end. We're going to start things 38 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 3: off with on Friday night. If you missed part three 39 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,639 Speaker 3: and you're listening to this, and there's still a couple 40 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 3: of games on Friday to go. All the rest of 41 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 3: the games besides the Orange Bowl are covered on the 42 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:24,359 Speaker 3: Boll Betting Preview Part three, so make sure you check 43 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 3: that out. But let's kick things off here on Friday 44 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:31,399 Speaker 3: night with the Orange Bowl between Tennessee and Clemson clemsons 45 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 3: of four and a half point favorite here over under 46 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 3: sixty three and a. 47 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 1: Half the Orange Bowl. 48 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 4: And good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. 49 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 3: I'm Keith Jackson. 50 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 4: I'll be calling the play in today's ball game. We 51 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 4: have an afternoon of what college football is all about. 52 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 4: It's the kind of a week that you could really 53 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 4: get yourself a set of white knuckles if you were 54 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,639 Speaker 4: a partisan to either one of these teams, because the fever, 55 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 4: if you will, is so fervent it's almost impossible to measure. 56 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 3: As I mentioned, this game is Friday night, a pm 57 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 3: Eastern on ESPN in Miami Gardens, Florida. How much orange 58 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 3: can you have for the Orange Bowl? Tennessee and Clemson 59 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 3: talk about branding, but this game is not. I mean 60 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 3: what these two teams were in the top five. I 61 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,679 Speaker 3: think after Week nine and these teams are going to 62 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,799 Speaker 3: look drastically different than they did at that point in 63 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:19,679 Speaker 3: time because we have two different starting quarterbacks. Now. Kate 64 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 3: Clebnick will make his first career collegiate start in the postseason, 65 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 3: taking on Joe Milton, so there's no hendon hooker for Tennessee. 66 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 3: Jalen Hylott, the Litnikoff Award winner star wide receiver, He's out. 67 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 3: Cedric Tilman, the other star receiver for Tennessee, is out. 68 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 3: Their linebacker Banks is also out on clubs inside DJU 69 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 3: transferred to Oregon State, so he's obviously out. Miles Murphy 70 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 3: is probably a first round draft pick on their defensive line. 71 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 3: He's out, as well as linebacker Trenton Simpson. Could have 72 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 3: a couple other opt outs leading up to the game. 73 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 3: As of now, that's what we know. It's also worth 74 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 3: mentioning that Josh Heipel offensive coordinator Scholish to South Florida 75 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 3: or will be the new head coach. So the question 76 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 3: here is, I mek Dabloisweeney. You have to give him 77 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 3: credit for he's been really good in bowls against the spread. 78 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 3: I think he's twelve and six against the spread. He 79 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 3: takes them serious, and I mean, look, I'm going to 80 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 3: start this podcast off in a good mood and I'm 81 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 3: not going to piss off Clemson defense. I won't even 82 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 3: talk about the comments that he made about naming, image 83 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 3: and likeness and maybe God's a Clemson event. Maybe God 84 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:28,480 Speaker 3: actually chooses football teams, you. 85 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 7: Know, honestly, for me, We built this program on nil. 86 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 7: We really did. It's probably different than what you're thinking, though. 87 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 3: We built this. 88 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 7: Program in God's name, image and likeness, and that's how 89 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:42,720 Speaker 7: I look at it. You know, we've been dealing with 90 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 7: his name, image and likeness for a long time. 91 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 3: But when I look at this game, it's very hard 92 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 3: to handicap because it's okay, Tennessee's run defense was pretty 93 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 3: good all year, so ken Clay Kid Klubnick and this 94 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:58,479 Speaker 3: Clemson passing offense, which was very inconsistent and underwhelming, take 95 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 3: advantage of Tennessee secondary because if you do look at 96 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 3: Ka Klubook, he was great in you know, came in 97 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 3: for DJU and the AC Championship, but that was North 98 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 3: Carolina's defense. Now, maybe you could argue Tennessee's defense as 99 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 3: far as the second is concerned, is on the same level. 100 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 3: And on the other side, it's like, what can you 101 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 3: expect from Joe Milton and now a very depleted like 102 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,480 Speaker 3: you have Bru McCoy and it's you know, you're gonna 103 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:26,720 Speaker 3: have to rely on a couple of really inexperienced guys. 104 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 3: Could you lose Hiatt and Tilman. That's a lot of 105 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 3: production and a lot of talent on the outside. My 106 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 3: first thought I was thinking of maybe under here, Like 107 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 3: I mean Tennessee Unders in a bowl game, you know 108 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 3: they're gonna want to go as fast as possible. This 109 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 3: one's pretty difficult for me to get a handle on. 110 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 3: What do you see here? 111 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 5: Listen, the Cane Club Nick twenty twenty three Heisman campaign 112 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 5: is going to get started. He went nineteen to twenty 113 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 5: three against the UNC. Two of those are being dropped 114 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 5: by the targets themselves. He went six of eight in 115 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 5: play action passing with a touchdown. I think that's going 116 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 5: to be a similar format to what we see here. 117 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 5: He had to scramble two design runs. I'm not really 118 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 5: sure why dj uy Young Galiley was the starter for 119 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 5: so long this season. Clemson fans have been asking for 120 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 5: it since mid season. I'm not really sure what took Davos. 121 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 3: Because of you, You were the one who pushed in 122 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,720 Speaker 3: the boss the DJU podcast. You kept it going. 123 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:19,039 Speaker 5: I renamed us the Kad Klebnik Podcast midstream too. There's 124 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 5: no losses from the wide receivers that had targets in 125 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 5: the AEC Championship game. Kobe Pace the backup, back up 126 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:26,679 Speaker 5: running bad, but the two headed monster there with will Shipley, 127 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 5: he only had three carries. He's now in the portal. 128 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 5: Not really a big hurt there, but you know, does 129 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 5: the offense improve. The rushing was already one of the 130 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 5: best in the nation. Like I said, with Will Shipley, 131 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 5: he had a TD in all but two games this season. 132 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:41,160 Speaker 5: So if you can find a prop out there about 133 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 5: Will Shipley hitting a touchdown, it's probably worse some money, 134 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 5: especially if it's under minus one twenty or minus one thirty. 135 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 5: And although Tennessee was terrible in a pass rush at 136 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 5: one hundred and fifth, Byron Young at the edge, you 137 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 5: know he's going to play in this game before he 138 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 5: goes to the draft. He had thirty six pressure seven sacks. 139 00:06:58,120 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 6: You know. 140 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 5: I think what's interesting to me about Byron Young's numbers 141 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 5: about can he be a factor here against the Clemson 142 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:07,280 Speaker 5: offensive line. He only had three pressures in his final 143 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 5: four games, and that includes zero pressures when he took 144 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 5: on the Georgia offensive line, So he kind of disappeared 145 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 5: when it turned into big time games for Tennessee. I 146 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 5: think the big question here is defensive coordinator Tim Banks. 147 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 5: For Tennessee, he calls a lot of soft zone coverages, 148 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:25,559 Speaker 5: and you know, opponents have had a lot of scoring 149 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 5: opportunities here, especially against the secondary. Tennessee was twenty ninth 150 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 5: and in defensive finishing drives. But it's going to be 151 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 5: a true test for the Tennessee defense against Clemson offensive 152 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 5: coordinator Brandon Streeter, who finished second in red zone efficiency 153 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 5: and fourth and red zone ten percentage. How much of 154 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 5: that was dj though carrying the ball, We'll see, But 155 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 5: I mean Clemson has been elite in the red zone offensively. 156 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 6: And then you mentioned Joe Milton. It's you know, the score. 157 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 5: Against Vanderbilt may make you think that Joe Milton had 158 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 5: a great game. 159 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 3: He did. His numbers are pretty underwhelming. 160 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 5: Yeah, he went eleven of twenty one. He went one 161 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 5: of nine on passing over twenty yards. 162 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 6: Not good. 163 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 5: He completed three of ten on blitz downs by Vandy. 164 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 5: So you can expect a lot of blitz coming in 165 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 5: from West Goodwin. 166 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 3: The defensive course, now you don't have Hiatt and Tilman 167 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 3: out there. 168 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 5: Don't have Highatt and Tilman, and I think Georgia really 169 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 5: exposed what this Tennessee offense is and how you defend 170 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 5: Josh hipel which is you have to jam at the 171 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:21,680 Speaker 5: line of scrimmage to get the timing off. Joe Milton 172 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 5: can't even hit the timing and his accuracy is not 173 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 5: as good as Hndon Hookers. So to me it it 174 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 5: just spells doom for Tennessee all over a reason why 175 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 5: I would want to take Clemson with the market is 176 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:35,679 Speaker 5: now sitting at minus five and a half. 177 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 6: And you know, there are key players there. 178 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 5: There's a lot of people that are out for Clemson, 179 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 5: but there are some of the key players like Nate 180 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:43,559 Speaker 5: Wiggins is there at corner. He had nine forced in 181 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 5: completions on the season. kJ Henry Tyler, Davis, Brian Barresi 182 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 5: are all expected to play in this on the defensive line. 183 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 5: And you know you mentioned that who's left for Tennessee 184 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 5: to catch the ball? Ra mel Keaton and Bruce McCoy are. 185 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,839 Speaker 5: They're white out, but they're not explosive when you look 186 00:08:57,840 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 5: at yards per route run at all. They are not 187 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 5: Jay highlight in the slot, which is a monster gap 188 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 5: that this offense just can't fill. So you know, I 189 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:07,959 Speaker 5: do project Clemson at minus three if everybody was playing 190 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 5: in this game, considering they're not for Tennessee I'm you know, 191 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 5: I expect the number for Clemson to be higher, but 192 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 5: for me, it's all Clemson here. 193 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't really like Tennis City. So that should 194 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,080 Speaker 3: tell you, you know, because I've been lower on Clemson 195 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,199 Speaker 3: the market all year, and I would lean under too. 196 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 3: I just don't think Tennessee's gonna have that much success. 197 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 3: And I think to Clemson is gonna want to run 198 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 3: the ball to set up the pass, and Tennessee's run 199 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 3: d has been good, So I think the total is 200 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 3: a tad to high. But yeah, you make a good 201 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 3: case for Clemson, and Dabbo, like I said, has been 202 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 3: really good in bulls. These guys were. Tennessee opting out 203 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 3: probably isn't a great sign for their motivation. You got 204 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 3: to remember that like Clemson, and I thought last year 205 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 3: gets Iowa State that the Clempson wasn't gonna be motivated, 206 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 3: and Dabbo had them ready for that. Tennessee was so 207 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 3: close to the Costball playoff multiple times, right, like they 208 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 3: controlled their own destiny lost to Georgia. Everything broke their 209 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:02,959 Speaker 3: way and all they had to do is basically went 210 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 3: out and they get blown up by South Carolina. So 211 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 3: I know it's the Orange Bowl. I know that it's Clemson, 212 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 3: but there's got to be I think Tennessee is more 213 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 3: disappointed in how things broke than Clemson. And Clemson might 214 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 3: be rejuvenated with clube Nick getting his first start here, 215 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 3: whereas there's obviously a big drop off from Hooker to Milton. 216 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to Saturday, New Year's Eve. 217 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 3: I can't wait for this day's kick things off. Just 218 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 3: an amazing day. We'll kick things off noon Eastern on 219 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 3: ESPN with the All State Sugar Bowl between Kanadas State 220 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 3: and Alabama. Alabama is a six and a half point 221 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:41,479 Speaker 3: favorite over under fifty six. 222 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: The Sugar Bowl. 223 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 4: There have been some compromises throughout the country so people 224 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 4: could watch it. There's no law against scalping tickets and 225 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 4: premium prices have been paid. 226 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 3: These games in New Orleans, Louisiana. Breaking news here is 227 00:10:56,320 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 3: Alabama apparently has no opt outs. Brace will Anderson Gibbs there. 228 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 3: You know a lot of their projected first round draft picks, 229 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:08,559 Speaker 3: first or second round draft picks on the defensive side. 230 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:12,719 Speaker 3: You know, talking Battle and Young and malc On Moore. 231 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:15,599 Speaker 3: Apparently they're all playing. There's a couple of guys in 232 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 3: the transfer portal, mainly at wide receiver, and they lost 233 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:22,719 Speaker 3: the starting offensive lineman. But it looks like everyone is 234 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 3: a go Battle branch More on the defensive side, everyone 235 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 3: on the offensive end is a go for Alabama, and 236 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 3: same thing with Kansas State. So I played this completely wrong. 237 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:35,679 Speaker 3: I took Kansas State plus four and a half, and 238 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 3: I assume that I don't why would Bryce down play? 239 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:40,959 Speaker 3: This game is gonna be a you know, maybe the 240 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 3: number one overall pick. Why would Will Anderson play? But 241 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 3: I don't know. Apparently everyone in Alabama's gonna play. So 242 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 3: I'm stuck. So I have to you know, I have 243 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 3: a bad number and I can't buy out of it. 244 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,200 Speaker 3: So I'm stuck with Kansas State. If you follow me, 245 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 3: let's go h Ema. But I'm stuck here. So anyone 246 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 3: that's looking at this game now with the current line 247 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 3: can projected total and you're basically assuming like everyone is 248 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 3: a go on both sides outside of some you know, 249 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 3: wider Trayshon Holden, Jojo Urrow, you know, a couple of 250 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:19,839 Speaker 3: the wide receiver contributors, and then one starting offensive lineman 251 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 3: for Alabama. If everyone's a full go here, what's the 252 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 3: play in the Sugar Bowl. 253 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, the play here is the over. 254 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 5: And the reason is because the two biggest factors in 255 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 5: this game are going to be Jamiir Gibbs and Duce Vaughan. 256 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,199 Speaker 5: So the question is is which defense is going to 257 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 5: have the ability to take care of these you know, 258 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 5: these huge threats that can run the ball, they can 259 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 5: take dump off in the flats, they can hit crossers, 260 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 5: and Jamier Gibbs and ducebaughand this is their show right away. 261 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 5: So when you look at you know who's better at 262 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 5: defending the rush? Alabama finished fifty second and defensive rushing 263 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 5: success rate. Kansas State finished forty sixth in the same 264 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 5: metric on defense, So neither of them really wins that 265 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 5: you look at stuff rate Alabama a bit better, but 266 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 5: I don't really see these two backs going in between 267 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 5: the tackles. That's not going to be the game plan 268 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 5: for them. And then when you look at the other metrics, 269 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 5: it's just kind of leaky on defense. Like Kansas State 270 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 5: is one hundred and fifth in defensive line yards. That 271 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:11,839 Speaker 5: tells me Jamier Gibbs is going to be able to 272 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 5: run the ball any down and distance. He's going to 273 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 5: be able to get there. 274 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 6: You know, when you look. 275 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:18,679 Speaker 5: At Alabama, they're outside the top fifty in the same thing. 276 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 5: So all things being said, there are advantages here for 277 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 5: both offenses and finishing drives. 278 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 6: Are both going to put up points when they get 279 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 6: past the forty. 280 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 5: Each defense has worse metrics on the defensive side than 281 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 5: they do on the offensive side. And Alabama, you know, 282 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 5: they really trump Kansas State and strength of schedule, strength 283 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 5: of records. 284 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 6: So if you had to take a side, I would 285 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 6: be all in on Alabama here. 286 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 5: It's a game that I would project at seven, but 287 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 5: more importantly, I think the total should be a touchdown higher. 288 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 6: I would love to get the key of fifty five. 289 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 5: There's a lot of fifty six is out there on 290 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 5: the board, so we have forced to play the over 291 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 5: fifty six. I would if you can find a fifty 292 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 5: five and a half buy it down to key, I would. 293 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,199 Speaker 5: But there's just too many advantages for both Jamier Gibbs 294 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,880 Speaker 5: and Douce Vaughn and these advanced analytics, and I don't 295 00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 5: see a lot of containment of those two exclusive backs. 296 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 6: So over all the way from. 297 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 3: Me, yeah, and I know everyone was going to play, 298 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 3: but is the prep you know, like they're all that's 299 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 3: to be a cogswell playoff usually like is they are 300 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 3: they going to take the prep as serious? And is 301 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 3: the motivation all there now they're all playing, so you 302 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 3: would think yes, but do you think that can you 303 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 3: expect everyone about to play the whole game? Like is 304 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 3: it going to be because pribacends gonna be potentially a 305 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 3: number one pick? Is it going to be could potentially 306 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 3: he be rotating possessions? Like what do you think there is? 307 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 3: Can you? 308 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 6: Yeah? 309 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 5: I mean, I think the problem with Alabama is is 310 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 5: there's never been any consistency with the wide receivers the 311 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 5: entire season. They're just not going to flip a switch 312 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 5: and have that start. You know, Treyshawn Holden's out, Christian 313 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 5: Larry Jojo Earl, but then there are other players, but 314 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 5: the connection just has not been there whatsoever. So even 315 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 5: if he is in the game and he is throwing deep, 316 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 5: doesn't matter because that is a great place to attack 317 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 5: Kansas State. But Alabama has not shown enough consistency to 318 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 5: get that done. It's really going to be what it's 319 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 5: been all a year, which is Jamir Gibbs, you know, 320 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 5: just being untouchable when he's full strength, which he is. 321 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 5: I think the other interesting thing is on the other 322 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 5: side of the ball, Adrian Martinez should be completely amped 323 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 5: up to play in this game. 324 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 6: He needs some you. 325 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 5: Know, good goodbye film before he tries to play in 326 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 5: the NFL or play in another league or whatever his 327 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 5: future is going to hold. But this could be it 328 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 5: for Adrian Martinez. So you know, there's definitely some more 329 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 5: motivation on the Kansas State side. I just don't see 330 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 5: Alabama's passing game turning on the light switch and figuring 331 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 5: it out here because they have not figured it out 332 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 5: all season. 333 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, it should be a big Gibbs game because can 334 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 3: you really see Bryce Young running a lot in this game? 335 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 3: Risking like he's not going to run at all, Right, 336 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 3: so he's gonna be checking it down two Gibbs A 337 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 3: ton Gibbs is going to be doing most of the running. 338 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 3: I can't see Bryce Young like diving into defenders to 339 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 3: pick up a first down on the scramble. 340 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 6: Right. 341 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 8: Well. 342 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, and considering how poor Kansas State is in the 343 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 5: lineyards outside the top one hundred, don't you think we'd 344 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 5: se Jalen Milroe in there running zone Reid with what 345 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 5: Jamir Gibbs. It just that makes more sense in this game. 346 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, let's move on to a gain. It 347 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 3: might not have this many fireworks in the Music City 348 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 3: Ball between Kentucky and Iowa. Iowa was a two and 349 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 3: a half point favorite. Hear over under thirty one. It 350 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 3: could be the lowest total in college football history, I believe. 351 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 3: And it's in a ballgame. 352 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 1: Amazing the Music City Bowl. 353 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 2: And do we expect anything today other than a close talk, 354 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 2: knock them down, belly up football game. 355 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 3: This game's in Nashville, Tennessee, Saturday, December thirty, first New 356 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 3: Year's Eve neon Eastern ABC be going on at the 357 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 3: same time as Kansas State Alabama. Nice little appetizers before 358 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 3: the College wall playoff. UK opt outs quarterback Will Levis, 359 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 3: running back Chris Rodriguez, cornerback Carrington Valentine, anyone I ever 360 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 3: mentioned as an opt out only meaningful players for what 361 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 3: it's worst, so they won't all be starters. Destin Wade 362 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 3: is expected to get a first career start for Kentucky 363 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 3: at quarterback, and then they're gonna have a fourth string 364 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 3: running back in there. Kentucky also fired their offensive coordinator. 365 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 3: I still don't know who's gonna call plays on the 366 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:18,719 Speaker 3: Iowa side. You know, safety Kavon Merriweather opted out. They 367 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 3: also had a couple of receivers in the transfer portal, 368 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 3: and both of their starting quarterbacks are out, so you 369 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 3: will have third string quarterback Joey Labas or labis I 370 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:31,400 Speaker 3: don't even know how to pronounce, to make his first 371 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 3: collegiate start. Tight end Sam Laporter, one of the best 372 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,119 Speaker 3: of the country, looks like he is expected to play. 373 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 3: I took Iowa here on the money line. I would 374 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 3: take them again on the money line and look in 375 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,359 Speaker 3: a game with a total thirty one, and in bowl 376 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 3: games where you know, if the team scores a touchdown 377 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 3: at the end, you're probably not gonna play for every 378 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 3: time you might go over two, I would look for 379 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 3: a cheap money on here, especially with this total. Every 380 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 3: point means like this game could end. This game could 381 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 3: end eight seven. Surprise me. But I think that Iowa 382 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:05,880 Speaker 3: look their third string quarterback. It might be an upgrade 383 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 3: over the quarterback play they got this year. They got 384 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 3: no quarterback play. And this guy and this kid you know, 385 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 3: apparently was he can move a little bit. He was 386 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,120 Speaker 3: impressive in the spring game at times like maybe it's 387 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 3: an upgrade, whereas I guess with Kentucky, I think it's 388 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 3: a clear downgrade. Their offensive line was poor all year. 389 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 3: They don't have you know who's calling plays, they all 390 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 3: Chris Rodriguez. You also, they lost their other backup, Smoke 391 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 3: in the transfer portal, so you're down to a four 392 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 3: string running back because your third string was also got hurt. 393 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 3: So and I just think that I was used to 394 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 3: winning these types of games, and they're used to winning 395 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:44,119 Speaker 3: with their defense. And I just find it hard to 396 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 3: see how Kentucky can move the ball. And I see 397 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 3: Iowa forcing a couple of turnovers, make a couple of 398 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 3: plays on special teams, and that'll be the difference. I 399 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 3: can't play under thirty one in a ball game, but 400 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,199 Speaker 3: this one should be ugly. It's Iowa money line for me. 401 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,240 Speaker 3: I think they've find away. The quarterback drop off is 402 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 3: much more important for Kentucky because their offensive line has 403 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 3: been bad all year. So give me the Hawkeyes here 404 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,880 Speaker 3: in a rematch is a rematch of last year's bowl game. 405 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 3: What do you see here? 406 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 5: Well, I'm staring at the board with a key number 407 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 5: of thirty one. I'm seeing one book I shop at 408 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 5: at thirty and a half, another one at thirty one 409 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 5: and a half. So I think I should stop talking 410 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:23,679 Speaker 5: and go lay on both sides and just see if 411 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 5: it lands thirty one. But listen, I mean, if there 412 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 5: were full participation in the rosters, I would make this 413 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 5: total thirty six. So when you miss some of the 414 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 5: players that they're talking about, I can see why there's 415 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 5: the dip. 416 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:34,440 Speaker 6: In this number. 417 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 5: But consider these rosters last year, right, I mean, we 418 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 5: just have this sample. Most of the same players played 419 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 5: in the Citters Bowl last year. Wandell Robertson, Chris Rodrigue, 420 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:46,880 Speaker 5: Samuel Porter, Spencer Petris will Levis. They all played last year. 421 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:49,879 Speaker 5: The final score was thirty seven points. You take away 422 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 5: all those names I just mentioned, with the exception of 423 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,239 Speaker 5: maybe Loporto, who's going to try to play. I mean, 424 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 5: I can understand why this is thirty one. I could 425 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 5: even make a case it should be lower without those 426 00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 5: names because they did not replace. 427 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 6: Any of them with anything that's quality. 428 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, and Kentucky's offensive line got significantly worse. 429 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,920 Speaker 5: Yes, Laporta has been practicing for four weeks off of surgery. 430 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 5: Now you know his draft profile has all the highlights 431 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 5: that he needs, but he's still going to play here. 432 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 5: And you know, quarterback Joey Labas is going to get 433 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,679 Speaker 5: to start for Iowa. He was the Scout team quarterback. 434 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 5: He says he has a lot of familiarity with some 435 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:23,199 Speaker 5: of the pieces in practice because it's some of the 436 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 5: Scout Team players too. Iowa finished one hundred and thirtieth 437 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 5: in pass blocking. Like I mean, Kentucky's just going to 438 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 5: be able to roll through that offensive line and get 439 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 5: some pressure on this Scout team quarterback. And Deustin Wade's 440 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 5: going to get to start for Kentucky. Deuce Hogan and 441 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 5: Kaya Sharon they're also going to get to see the field. 442 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 5: But this job belongs to Devin Larry next season. So 443 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 5: it's kind of a throwaway game here from the quarterback position. 444 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 5: But Wade was recruited as an athlete. I got some 445 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:49,440 Speaker 5: dual threat capability here Baylor, Arizona State since they all 446 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 5: had offers out for this kid. 447 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 6: So we'll see what he can do. 448 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,400 Speaker 5: If he's got legs and he can get outside the tackles, 449 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 5: that's a plus for Kentucky. Iowa losses in the secondary 450 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,479 Speaker 5: or kave On Merriweather and Cooper Dejan both buying for 451 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 5: seven interceptions this season. But does that matter with Destin Wade, 452 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 5: Like is he going to be chucking it downfield for Kentucky? 453 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 5: Maybe not, because it's a ground based attack and Iowa 454 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:14,120 Speaker 5: is the far superior defense when it comes to coverage, pass, rush, lineyards, 455 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 5: and havoc. I mean, there's a huge gap with havoc 456 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 5: in these teams and it all belongs to Iowa. 457 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:23,640 Speaker 6: So for that reason, and special teams and special too, Iowa's. 458 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 5: Fourth, Kentucky seventy third. So there's just so many things 459 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:31,199 Speaker 5: in the intangibles that are important in Iowa football that 460 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 5: says that Iowa was going to win here. 461 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:37,439 Speaker 3: Yeah, Kentucky's they struggled kicking the ball. They also had 462 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 3: a punter. They're down to backup punter. They struggled in 463 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,959 Speaker 3: special teams, and i was obviously lead in that category 464 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 3: elite causing havoc, and I think that's the difference. I 465 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 3: think that they cause an extra turnover two, probably score 466 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 3: on defense, that's probably how the Iowa scores. And then 467 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 3: special teams. They're gonna pin Kentucky deep with their punting. 468 00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 3: They're gonna play conservative that's I mean, if you're gonna 469 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 3: bet an under in the game, it's not like Karak 470 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 3: Frantz is gonna play aggressive because it's a bowl. He's 471 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 3: gonna play ali plays and especially with his personnel. So yeah, 472 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,639 Speaker 3: and then Kentucky struggled to punt the ball, so Iowa 473 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 3: have a better field position and not for them to 474 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 3: go to score, for them to then flip the field 475 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 3: back and pin Kentucky deep and maybe get a safety. 476 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 3: So yeah, this one won't be your prettiest game of 477 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,159 Speaker 3: the weekend, but I think Iowa gets it done. I 478 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 3: like the money line. All Right, We're gonna save the 479 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 3: college f wall plaoff semifinals for last, So let's go 480 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 3: to Monday. It's gonna be weird like New Year's Day. 481 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 3: There's no bowl games because there's NFL. But on Monday 482 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 3: it's great. But then we get the you know, the 483 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:44,119 Speaker 3: New Year's Day on a Monday, basically on January seconds. 484 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,360 Speaker 3: We'll kick things off at noon Eastern on ESPN two, 485 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,679 Speaker 3: and they rely a Quest Bowl between Mississippi State and Illinois. 486 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 3: This game, flipping around a pick, Illinois might as won 487 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:55,640 Speaker 3: miss to the State might have won over under forty. 488 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,879 Speaker 1: Six the relya Quest Bowl. 489 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 3: It's hard. 490 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 2: I suppose if your roots are Southern, you can call 491 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 2: it three whoop bees. 492 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 6: And a hot damn. 493 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 3: This is games that played in Tampa, Florida, so there 494 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 3: was a lot of backup. The reason why this line 495 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 3: has moved around is originally Mississippi State two of their 496 00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 3: better defensive backs, Jackie Matthews and Emmanuel Forbes, they opted 497 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 3: out for the NFL Draft, but down now they came 498 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,440 Speaker 3: back and said we're going to play. Their safety Colin 499 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:30,160 Speaker 3: Duncan is still opting out as of now. It's also 500 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 3: worth mentioning that one of their best receivers, Rawi Thomas, 501 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,360 Speaker 3: are one of their best running backs, Dylan Johnson hit 502 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:39,199 Speaker 3: the transfer portal, but on the Illinois side. So then 503 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,120 Speaker 3: it was like, okay, so I played Illinois originally and 504 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 3: I said, okay, Illinois is gonna be able to run 505 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 3: on this team. It's Mississippi State's weakness on defense and 506 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 3: Illinois secondary is elite. And that's all Mississippi State does 507 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,400 Speaker 3: is throw the ball. Illinois can match up. Here then 508 00:23:55,480 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 3: comes the Illinois opt out news. You have Illinois's defense 509 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 3: back to of their best Devin Witherspoon and Sidney Brown 510 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 3: they opted out, and then it comes out Chase Brown, 511 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 3: They're a lead running back, opted out. So now it concerns, okay, 512 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 3: will Illinois action it would take advantage of this Mississippi 513 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 3: State run defense and ken Illinois stop Will Rogers and 514 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 3: this air raid attack from UH carving them up without 515 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 3: two of their best players. So I bought back on Illinois. 516 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 3: And you also throw in just where is Mississippi State mentally? 517 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:32,400 Speaker 6: Right? 518 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,679 Speaker 3: With everything that happened with Mike Leach rip the goat, 519 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 3: you know we were they could be super motivated here. 520 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 3: They also could have been super distracted leading up to 521 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 3: the game, which would be completely understandable. So yeah, I 522 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 3: mean it's a good sign at like a couple of 523 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 3: the guys that were originally going to opt out for 524 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:53,119 Speaker 3: the NFL Draft are deciding to play. Probably signals to 525 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:57,720 Speaker 3: motivation here. But you know, this one's tough for me 526 00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,880 Speaker 3: to get a get a handle of that wild card 527 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 3: of where is Mississippi State mentally and how did everything 528 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 3: that went on impact their preparation? What do you see 529 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:09,840 Speaker 3: here between Illinois Mississippi State? 530 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean from an ex's and o's and analytics perspective, 531 00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 5: that's a really tough assignment for mississipp State air raid 532 00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 5: scheme to go against an Illinois an ILLOI team that 533 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 5: was second in coverage and best in the nation and 534 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 5: defensive finishing drives. But there are huge missing pieces here 535 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 5: on both sides. Wide receiver Rara Thomas most explosive target 536 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 5: for the Bulldogs. They're white out. He finished one point 537 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 5: nine to nine yards per route run. He will not 538 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 5: be available. Look for him on Georgia next year. But 539 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 5: then on the other side of the ball, Devin Witherspoon 540 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 5: and Sydney Brown have opted out, and you know Tavian 541 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 5: Nicholson dealt with injury, and those are all in the 542 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 5: Illinois secondary. Specifically, Devin Witherspoon is a one man wrecking crew. 543 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 5: I mean he's going to just harass the NFL like 544 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:54,920 Speaker 5: no tomorrow. Those three combine for an astounding forty one 545 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 5: forced end completions. Now you don't have those guys available. 546 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,399 Speaker 5: That makes the air raid offense a little bit more potent. 547 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,880 Speaker 5: But at the same time we know this about rest 548 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,440 Speaker 5: in Peace, Mike Leach. The air raid does not come 549 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,240 Speaker 5: out of the gate after a bunch of time off 550 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 5: and is just on in sync, right, so you. 551 00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 3: Kind of saw it with Houston too. Another another team 552 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 3: that was a Bertle beat by. 553 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 5: The way, Yeah, thank you that boy that in utsa 554 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 5: Louisian utsa go. I had six and a half. All right, 555 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,719 Speaker 5: So Illinois loses Chase Brown three hundred and twenty nine 556 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 5: rushing attempts, ten tds, and then what's left Reggie Love 557 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 5: He had a season hie eleven rushing attempts to close 558 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:36,200 Speaker 5: the season against Northwestern. He's been with Illinois for three years, 559 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,160 Speaker 5: so he knows the system. He's just not Chase Brown. 560 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:41,639 Speaker 5: And this will be time the Tommy DeVito show. I mean, 561 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 5: Mississippi State does not generate a pass rush, but they 562 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 5: finished top twenty and cover drinks in fourteenth against explosives, 563 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 5: So I don't expect Illinois to get downfield. 564 00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 6: De Vito is going to be able to dink and 565 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 6: dunk and get some yards here. 566 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 5: I project the game as a pick a slight tick 567 00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,679 Speaker 5: to Mississippi State with these crucial pieces missing in the 568 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:04,160 Speaker 5: Illini secondary, a poor coverage grading from the Illinois linebackers. 569 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 5: To me, this is advantage Mississippi State all the way. 570 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,440 Speaker 5: But you know, especially with Will Rogers, he had seventeen 571 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,919 Speaker 5: attempts over twenty yards on the entire season, and like 572 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,639 Speaker 5: one hundred and ninety one elsewhere within zero to ten 573 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 5: yards within the hash marks. I mean, he is going 574 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 5: straight over center. So to me, knowing what the Mississippi 575 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 5: State offensive plan of attack is, knowing the ineptitude of 576 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 5: the Illinois offense without Chase Brown, it's a first half. 577 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 6: Under for me all the way. 578 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:33,679 Speaker 5: Maybe the araid wakes up in the second half, but 579 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:35,720 Speaker 5: this is a Mississippi State full game bet and a 580 00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:36,640 Speaker 5: first half under bet. 581 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind the first half under at all. 582 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,399 Speaker 3: Maybe that's where I look. I'm way too conflicted on 583 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 3: the side, which is why I bought out and won't 584 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:47,640 Speaker 3: be invested there. But I kind of liked that first 585 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 3: half under with the rust factor for Mississippi State as well. 586 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,919 Speaker 3: And no, Chase Brown is big for Illinois with his 587 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 3: explosive running ability, which is the weakness of that Mississippi 588 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 3: State defense. You know you're getting Forbes and Matthews in 589 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:05,119 Speaker 3: that secondary, which has been great all year. All right, 590 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:10,119 Speaker 3: let's move on to the second kickoff on Monday, January second. 591 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:14,159 Speaker 3: Let's go to the Goodyear Cotton Bowl between Tulane and USC. 592 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,600 Speaker 1: The Cotton Bowl Classic. 593 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 3: O Cotton Live. 594 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:33,000 Speaker 2: Heale to the victors value, Pale to the conquering hero USC. 595 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 3: He's a two point favorite here over under sixty two. 596 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 3: This game's at one pm Eastern on ESPN in Arlington, Texas. 597 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,960 Speaker 3: USC News Jordan Adison will play. Two of their best 598 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,560 Speaker 3: offensive linemen, Andrew Gordy's in their center. Brett Neiland won't play. 599 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 3: Doubt Eddy, I think Tulane everyone should play. When I 600 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 3: look at this game, it's all Tulane for me. I 601 00:28:55,800 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 3: had Tulane Circle coming into bowl season. And look, we 602 00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:05,800 Speaker 3: still don't know for sure on right we haven't got 603 00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 3: any word on Caleb Williams for sure. 604 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 5: Right, Well, last night I read that he's one of 605 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 5: her sent He confirmed himself last night. 606 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 3: Yeah I was gonna play, but yeah he's As of now, 607 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 3: he's gonna play. Get a hamster injury. Apparently he's healthy. 608 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,600 Speaker 3: That always could change. They could just say, look we're 609 00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 3: not we're gonna let you play. But I'm assuming that 610 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 3: he does play. I played Tulane here. If if Kayleb 611 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 3: Williams was out, I would have this would have been 612 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,520 Speaker 3: an absolute hammer. I still like it. When I look 613 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 3: at this game, Number one motivation is major for USC. 614 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,200 Speaker 3: It was one game away from being in the Collegewall playoffs. 615 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 3: Now you're playing Tulane in a bowl game. This is 616 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 3: obviously an enormous game for Tulane. A covering machine this year. 617 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,000 Speaker 3: And what can Tulane do? Their secondary is elite. They 618 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,720 Speaker 3: can match up with this USC passing attack and the 619 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:58,560 Speaker 3: USC offensive line, by the way, good all year. Jepp 620 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 3: was always a question. Now you're mis two of your 621 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,760 Speaker 3: best in that interior, which might impact the run game, 622 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:07,480 Speaker 3: which is how USC will be able to attack Tulane here. 623 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 3: But you know who will be able to attack in 624 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:14,520 Speaker 3: the running game. It's Tulane against this USC impoverished run 625 00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:17,040 Speaker 3: defense which is bottom ten and EPA per rush and 626 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 3: rushed success rate. That spells trouble against Tajy Spears, who 627 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,320 Speaker 3: will be fresh now and since he got fully healthy 628 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:29,320 Speaker 3: midway through the season. Is past seven games at least 629 00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,600 Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty five yards in all, seven one 630 00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 3: hundred and thirty four carries for eleven hundred and ninety 631 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:39,160 Speaker 3: four yards nine touchdowns. That's eight point nine yards per 632 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 3: carry over his last seven games. Going up against one 633 00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,880 Speaker 3: of the worst run defenses in the country. I think 634 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,920 Speaker 3: he's going to run wild. Oh by the way, there's 635 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:55,400 Speaker 3: still massive turnover regression that still looms for USC. Big 636 00:30:55,440 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 3: motivational edge Tulane. I think Tulane wins this game out right. 637 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 3: There's not a ton of value the number. I mean, 638 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 3: I but this is motivation. Will play matchup, play rollwave 639 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 3: back to TWU lane one final time this year. Please 640 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,160 Speaker 3: tell me you don't disagree. 641 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:17,880 Speaker 5: I don't disagree with you that Tulane is going to 642 00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,000 Speaker 5: put a whole bunch of points up on the board. 643 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,040 Speaker 5: I don't disagree with you that it's just gonna be 644 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,520 Speaker 5: a laser show of points. I think that's where my 645 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 5: handicap is. I'm actually gonna play both sides. I am 646 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,200 Speaker 5: not gonna take a side because you know, the line 647 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:34,080 Speaker 5: was just absolutely crazy, right USC. The favorite all comes 648 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 5: all the way down because we think Caleb Williams and 649 00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:37,760 Speaker 5: the company are all going to opt out. Then it 650 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,600 Speaker 5: stops to X back up a little bit. I think 651 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 5: Tulane was the favorite at one point in this game. 652 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,400 Speaker 5: I'm gonna stay away from all these pregame numbers. I 653 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,280 Speaker 5: might play it live. And the reason is because these 654 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 5: rush defenses are horrific. USC one hundred and twenty fifth 655 00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 5: in defensive rushing success rate. You go over to Tulane side, 656 00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,200 Speaker 5: they're outside the top one hundred in line yards or 657 00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,280 Speaker 5: one hundred and tenth and stuff. Right, So the name 658 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 5: of the game is and Austin Jones for USC. They 659 00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:04,040 Speaker 5: are going to dominate. 660 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:04,200 Speaker 3: Now. 661 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:05,440 Speaker 5: I think two Lane is gonna be able to get 662 00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,840 Speaker 5: points up on the board fast, ultra quick. Willie Fritz 663 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 5: is gonna design something that the USC defense. 664 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 6: Is not prepared for. 665 00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,520 Speaker 5: Oh, by the way, USC is one hundred and twenty 666 00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:16,800 Speaker 5: second and defensive finishing drives. Get the ball to the 667 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,160 Speaker 5: forty yard line, you're gonna get six points, and two 668 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 5: Lane's gonna. 669 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:20,400 Speaker 6: Do that a lot. 670 00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,400 Speaker 5: I actually love the first half over in this game 671 00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 5: for the fact that these defenses are not gonna be 672 00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 5: able to interpret what they're seeing. The playmakers that are 673 00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 5: on the other side of the ball completely trump them 674 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 5: in execution. 675 00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,840 Speaker 6: I'm having a hard time seeing stopped in this game. 676 00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,560 Speaker 5: You look at USC's third down defense one hundred and twelfth, 677 00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,400 Speaker 5: you know, Tu Lane isn't much better at seventy six. 678 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:41,160 Speaker 6: But really it's the ground game. 679 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 5: Everything the special teams are bad, the ground defense is bad, 680 00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 5: the third down defense is bad. 681 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,200 Speaker 6: So to me, this is an over. I think right 682 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:50,479 Speaker 6: out of the gate there's there's gonna be a ton 683 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:51,000 Speaker 6: of touchdowns. 684 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,040 Speaker 5: So I'm looking at first half over thirty and a 685 00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 5: half first quarter on the over, I don't think the 686 00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:57,800 Speaker 5: points are gonna stop. I think if one team gets 687 00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:00,120 Speaker 5: down two possessions, you fire on the other side, as 688 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,240 Speaker 5: long as it's not past the third quarter, because I 689 00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,440 Speaker 5: don't think you're safe with a two or three possession 690 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:08,320 Speaker 5: lead in this game at any point. And really, if 691 00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:10,400 Speaker 5: Tulane wants to get up by ten or more points, 692 00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 5: you don't think USC and Caleb Williams is going to 693 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:13,560 Speaker 5: start pulling some. 694 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 6: Of you know, the rabbit out of the hat and start. 695 00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,120 Speaker 5: Going up tempo, which we've seen them do before. So 696 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,200 Speaker 5: I just think there's going to be an abundance of points. 697 00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,280 Speaker 5: The jury for this game is going to be on 698 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 5: the first half over, and then I'm going to play 699 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,440 Speaker 5: both sides of this live because I don't think any 700 00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:28,280 Speaker 5: lead is safe. 701 00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind the over, and look, tou Lane 702 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:33,920 Speaker 3: has also struggled global quarterbacks, but we'll see if that 703 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,920 Speaker 3: you know that Caleb Wayne Sampster goes at any point 704 00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:41,040 Speaker 3: that could be a major development. But this is all 705 00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,360 Speaker 3: too lane for me. Rollway one of my favorite bets, 706 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:48,120 Speaker 3: if not my favorite bet of the weekend. Let's go Greenway. 707 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:49,760 Speaker 3: Treat me well, you know, Let's do one more time, 708 00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,840 Speaker 3: all right, Let's move on to stay at the same 709 00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 3: time slot. Also one pm Eastern on January tewod we 710 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 3: have Purdue taking on LSU in the Cheese Itt Citrus Bowl. 711 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 3: Else He's a fourteen and a half point favorite over 712 00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 3: under fifty. 713 00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:07,120 Speaker 1: Six the Citrus Bowl. 714 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,520 Speaker 2: Hello again, everybody, I'm Keith Jackson. 715 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:15,200 Speaker 8: This is one of those games that echo forever. This 716 00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:19,799 Speaker 8: is a game that reaches across generations, that emphasizes the 717 00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,480 Speaker 8: passion of partisanship. This is a game where players make 718 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 8: the big play. 719 00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:29,000 Speaker 3: This game is at one pm Stern ABC in Orlando, Florida. 720 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 3: Purdue opt out their major quarterback An O'Connell, their star 721 00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 3: wide receiver Charlie Jones, their reliable tight end target Payne Dorham, 722 00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:43,520 Speaker 3: their best offensive lineman and guard Spencer Holstage. Defensive side, 723 00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:47,840 Speaker 3: their best cornerback in Corey Trice, linebacker and defensive leader 724 00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:53,480 Speaker 3: Jalen Graham, couple defensive linemen starters in Branson Dean and 725 00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:57,240 Speaker 3: Lawrence Johnson. Also, Jeff brom took the head coaching position 726 00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 3: at Louisville. I think he matters, especially from a game 727 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:03,040 Speaker 3: playing respect of his brother. Offensive coordinator Brian bomb Will 728 00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:06,720 Speaker 3: coached the bowl game. LSU opt outs. Cornerback Jay Ward 729 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,520 Speaker 3: was a starter. Wide receiver Darray Jenkins, he's like their 730 00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:14,759 Speaker 3: third best receiver. And then the defensive line ojelore Gay 731 00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:18,400 Speaker 3: and Roy all out, so they only have one remaining 732 00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 3: start on the defensive line and Makai Wingo. You're gonna 733 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,600 Speaker 3: get Austin Burton here at starting quarterback. He did start 734 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:28,000 Speaker 3: against FAU. It's FAU. The game was close, it was 735 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,600 Speaker 3: Matt o'connells is so important. And then you know you're 736 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,759 Speaker 3: missing also Charlie Jones, one of the best receivers in 737 00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,800 Speaker 3: the country this year. Defensively, Produceding got to rely on 738 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,960 Speaker 3: a lot of freshmen in the front seven, some inexperienced secondary. 739 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,880 Speaker 3: They're missing their top two targets, their best offensive lineman, 740 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:46,120 Speaker 3: and their star quarterback. That's bad news here. This could 741 00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:49,520 Speaker 3: look like that Perdue game against Auburn when they were 742 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,600 Speaker 3: just outclassed athletically and got blown out of the building. 743 00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,239 Speaker 3: I think it was in the same I think it 744 00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,080 Speaker 3: was in the I think that was the Music City Bowl. 745 00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,360 Speaker 3: I think that was in Nashville. I laid it with LSU, 746 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:05,239 Speaker 3: assuming that O'Connell was probably gonna set. I still would 747 00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,600 Speaker 3: if you can get fourteen or better, I would lay 748 00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:09,360 Speaker 3: it with LSU. It gets dicey at fourteen and a 749 00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,160 Speaker 3: half with back doors. Maybe you look first half, but 750 00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,799 Speaker 3: a while all the wide receivers for LSU were gonna 751 00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:20,480 Speaker 3: play has it You can't really run the ball and 752 00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,520 Speaker 3: their quarterback. They're starting quarterback, their best tight end, the 753 00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:25,319 Speaker 3: best of its lining, the best wide receiver route, So like, 754 00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,799 Speaker 3: where how are they attacking LSU? The talent gap in 755 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:33,080 Speaker 3: this game is massive. This is all LSU. For me. 756 00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,319 Speaker 3: I think this is just an easy, obvious blow out. 757 00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:35,960 Speaker 3: What do you see. 758 00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:37,759 Speaker 5: You hit the nail on the head when you said 759 00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,160 Speaker 5: there's a massive talent gap. So we could sit here 760 00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:44,080 Speaker 5: and tell you about the length of LSU's injury opt 761 00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,560 Speaker 5: out transfer portal. I mean it is a long list 762 00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:48,680 Speaker 5: of names, and when you look at guys like you 763 00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,360 Speaker 5: know on the edge bj Ojuli with forty nine pressures 764 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:53,160 Speaker 5: in nine sacks and Ali Gay on the other side 765 00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:56,880 Speaker 5: going to the NFL. I got news for everybody. LSU 766 00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:58,920 Speaker 5: has depth, a ton of depth. They came into the 767 00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:02,400 Speaker 5: season with the most inherited through the transfer portal of 768 00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,000 Speaker 5: anybody last season. And now I'm looking, I'm literally looking 769 00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:08,080 Speaker 5: at the transfer portal rankings for next year. Already LSU 770 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,280 Speaker 5: is seventeenth on the board. But this is what's happening 771 00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,160 Speaker 5: with LSU. They've lost ten three stars, they've gained two 772 00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 5: four stars. This is a emerging giant, a sleeping giant 773 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:22,240 Speaker 5: that has woken up this LCU recruiting and transfer portal. 774 00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,279 Speaker 5: Brian Kelly's got it all going. But back to this 775 00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:26,320 Speaker 5: game when it's upside perdue. 776 00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,040 Speaker 3: When you lose a star player, the drop off is significant. 777 00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,719 Speaker 5: Yeah, when LSU has to replace a star player like 778 00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:35,520 Speaker 5: bj o Ju Lauri, they're not hurting for talent at all. 779 00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,839 Speaker 6: Everybody's long huge. It's gonna be able to get into 780 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:40,440 Speaker 6: the backfield. 781 00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,880 Speaker 5: So you know, Purdue, I don't know six years senior 782 00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,120 Speaker 5: Austin Burton's going to be in a quarterback. I read 783 00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,399 Speaker 5: that the locker room loves him. He's been working out 784 00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,440 Speaker 5: with you know, new assistant coach Drew Brees. Everybody's chumming 785 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,399 Speaker 5: until you know the ball gets snapped. But you know, 786 00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,400 Speaker 5: both Michael Alamino and Brady Allen are expected to get 787 00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,680 Speaker 5: snaps under center if it doesn't work out with Austin Burton. 788 00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,120 Speaker 5: So a little bit of new musical chairs at quarterback 789 00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,520 Speaker 5: for Purdue. That doesn't sound good. You mentioned all the 790 00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:06,560 Speaker 5: top targets are gone, the ones you mentioned Charlie Jones 791 00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:10,160 Speaker 5: paying Dharam turning thirty one targets on the team. The 792 00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,640 Speaker 5: next tight end on the Deva he has eleven. 793 00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:13,319 Speaker 4: Yeah. 794 00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:15,759 Speaker 3: By the way, when Burton started against Fau, by the way, 795 00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:17,799 Speaker 3: it's a horrible defense, and they won twenty eight to 796 00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:21,120 Speaker 3: twenty six at home, Charlie Jones had nine catches for 797 00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:24,480 Speaker 3: fifty nine yards and two touchdowns. Dorm had four catches. 798 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,280 Speaker 3: They had thirteen of the twenty two catches. They're both gone, 799 00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:29,920 Speaker 3: and he's gonna be missing one of the best offens 800 00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:32,600 Speaker 3: a linement and instead of playing Fau's defense, he's playing 801 00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:33,520 Speaker 3: all let's use defense. 802 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,319 Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, And then when you go to the LSU 803 00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,759 Speaker 5: offensive side of the ball, I'm not really sure it 804 00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,000 Speaker 5: matters if Jaden Daniels is fully healthier or not, because 805 00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:45,320 Speaker 5: Garrett Neusmeyer loves to throw it into any situation possible, 806 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,040 Speaker 5: doesn't care if it's dangerous or not so much. Brent 807 00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,160 Speaker 5: Farv in his arm there, but you know, both shouldn't 808 00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:54,480 Speaker 5: have issues against a perdue defense that was terrible in 809 00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:57,200 Speaker 5: passing downs eighty seventh and coverage one hundred and third 810 00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:00,319 Speaker 5: and allowing explosives and standard downs which will get them 811 00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,239 Speaker 5: into passing downs real quick. You know, Kaishan Boody is 812 00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:06,360 Speaker 5: going to return. I think Kashon Boody returning for LSU 813 00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,440 Speaker 5: just shows you the mindset that is coming to this 814 00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,000 Speaker 5: LSU team. Him sticking around for twenty twenty three, whether 815 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,280 Speaker 5: it's nil money or belief in the team or belief 816 00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:16,400 Speaker 5: in Brian Kelly. I think it's a huge statement that 817 00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:19,000 Speaker 5: Booty is going to stay there on the team. And 818 00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,839 Speaker 5: you know, and Brian Kelly mentioned that Purdue was in 819 00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:24,680 Speaker 5: and this I think is a great analogy. He said, 820 00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,239 Speaker 5: Purdue is in the exact same boat that we were 821 00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:30,040 Speaker 5: in a year ago. Plenty of transition on the roster, 822 00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:31,480 Speaker 5: plenty of transition. 823 00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:31,720 Speaker 6: With the coaches. 824 00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:34,239 Speaker 5: We now he didn't say this, we all know what 825 00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:36,279 Speaker 5: happened to LSU in the Bowl last year. Kansas State 826 00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,840 Speaker 5: ran them up a flagpole, right, and if Brian Kelly 827 00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:43,680 Speaker 5: is making that comparison, the exact same thing is happening here. 828 00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,200 Speaker 5: I think LSU first half is the play. There's too 829 00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,800 Speaker 5: much athleticism, like Harold Perkins on the defensive side of 830 00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:51,440 Speaker 5: the ball. I would expect LSU to empty out the 831 00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,959 Speaker 5: benches in the second half because Brian Kelly may want 832 00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,840 Speaker 5: film on these guys. He's still got evaluation due to 833 00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:00,560 Speaker 5: force guys get into the portal, you get some other 834 00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:02,759 Speaker 5: guys into the program. I think the second half is 835 00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,040 Speaker 5: going to be a crapshoot of lc leads by three scores. 836 00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:06,879 Speaker 5: So I'll take an LCU first half play here. 837 00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,160 Speaker 3: Dombnd that at all. Yeah, I think it's all Tiger's here. 838 00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,839 Speaker 3: All right, Let's move on to the granddaddy of them all, 839 00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:18,760 Speaker 3: the Rose Bowl on Monday, January second, five pm Eastern 840 00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:22,160 Speaker 3: on ESPN between Penn State and Utah Utah two two 841 00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:23,680 Speaker 3: and a half pint favorite over under fifty two and 842 00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,440 Speaker 3: a half. This game's obviously in Pasadena, California. 843 00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:31,279 Speaker 2: The Rose Bowl Game, the Royalty of College football, is 844 00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:34,640 Speaker 2: in assembly. The site for this ultimate showdown in college 845 00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,480 Speaker 2: football is one of fame, the ringers of sport, the 846 00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:41,680 Speaker 2: Rose Bowl. The weather is perfect, the field is fast. 847 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,680 Speaker 2: At the Rose Bowl for Tonight's bowl game, where the 848 00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,720 Speaker 2: festival the postseason player was started more about one hundred 849 00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:48,239 Speaker 2: years ago. 850 00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:54,320 Speaker 3: You topped out, start at Dalton Kincaid, Start cornerback Clark Phillips, 851 00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,400 Speaker 3: Penn State their star cornerback Joey Porter junior, and then 852 00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:01,319 Speaker 3: wide receiver Parker Washington, who was hurt. Uh is also 853 00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:03,720 Speaker 3: up at out for the NFL Draft. Looks like everyone 854 00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,239 Speaker 3: else is gonna go. Looks like both teams will care 855 00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:08,719 Speaker 3: Utah obviously in their first Rose Ball last year. You 856 00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:13,520 Speaker 3: can't just short against Ohio State. Location probably fan advantage here. 857 00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:18,680 Speaker 3: When I look at this game, I bet I bet Utah. 858 00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:22,240 Speaker 3: And you know, it sucks that Phillips and Kincaid aren't playing, 859 00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:25,120 Speaker 3: which makes you like a little less. But when I 860 00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:28,680 Speaker 3: this is what my handicap comes down to. These are 861 00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:35,920 Speaker 3: two teams that struggle to defend the run, and I 862 00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:42,520 Speaker 3: I trust Utah's rush offense to have much more success 863 00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:44,800 Speaker 3: than Penn States. People said Penn States rush offense was 864 00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:47,799 Speaker 3: fixed but there were one hundredth in rush success rate 865 00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:50,960 Speaker 3: this year eighty fifth and epa per rush. Not a 866 00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:55,320 Speaker 3: great rush offense, and these are two questionable run defenses. 867 00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:58,879 Speaker 3: I'll but I'll take the Utah rush offensive ranks fifth 868 00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:03,480 Speaker 3: an opportunity rate against Penn State's one hundred and fourth. 869 00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:06,799 Speaker 3: That's the difference to me. I think Utah have more 870 00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:10,520 Speaker 3: success running the ball. I also like Whittingham in bowles. 871 00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:14,080 Speaker 3: He's been very successful. I think he is slightly better 872 00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:17,279 Speaker 3: coach than James Franklin. Motivation, I'm gonna say equal in 873 00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:20,000 Speaker 3: this game based on what everyone is doing. It does 874 00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,480 Speaker 3: suck to me that k Kadi Phillips are out. I 875 00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:26,640 Speaker 3: still think you saw fines away here. Are you gonna 876 00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:27,480 Speaker 3: go against your utes? 877 00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:29,520 Speaker 6: I am, I am. I'm on Penn State all the 878 00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:30,800 Speaker 6: way here. I actually can't wait. 879 00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:35,160 Speaker 3: To be against here, but against your your son again. 880 00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:37,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, don't tell Kyle Waitningham. I'm gonna be there to 881 00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:39,440 Speaker 5: interview him there at the Rose Bowl. So hopefully he 882 00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,279 Speaker 5: doesn't know that I've turned on the program. 883 00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:45,600 Speaker 3: But you know, I hope be telling him a DM. 884 00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:51,040 Speaker 5: So I think I look at this game coming down 885 00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:53,560 Speaker 5: to a different position, and I think that's quarterback. And 886 00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:55,680 Speaker 5: when you look at Cam Rising, he's going up against 887 00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:58,720 Speaker 5: a secondary and yes, I know, Jeffrey Davis, Joey. 888 00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,839 Speaker 6: Porter Junior not going to be there, and Joey Porter 889 00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:02,719 Speaker 6: Junior is going to. 890 00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,320 Speaker 5: Take away a lot from that team, but the entire 891 00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:09,600 Speaker 5: secondary and linebackers led the nation. And passes defense, you 892 00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:13,759 Speaker 5: can't get anything in the air, and Cam Rising sometimes 893 00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:16,160 Speaker 5: has these games where he cannot keep himself from throwing 894 00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,880 Speaker 5: interceptions in the end zone, and I would be you know, 895 00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,920 Speaker 5: Cam Rising, I'm just not sure. I think he's going 896 00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,040 Speaker 5: to try to fit things into holes that aren't there, 897 00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:26,000 Speaker 5: and the Penn State defense is going to be able 898 00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:28,960 Speaker 5: to keep him from getting downfield. And then when you 899 00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,080 Speaker 5: flip to the other side of the ball. We've known 900 00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,880 Speaker 5: this for Sean Clifford forever. If you can generate a 901 00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:36,040 Speaker 5: pass rush, he gets in a hurry, he doesn't see 902 00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,640 Speaker 5: things clearly and he makes a ton of mistakes. Utah 903 00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,560 Speaker 5: is ninety seventh and pass rush they do not generate 904 00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:45,160 Speaker 5: pressure unless they bring extra defenders. They bring five, six, 905 00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:48,040 Speaker 5: seven guys, which is what they did to Caleb Williams. Sure, 906 00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:50,520 Speaker 5: but they can't generate it. Just off of the down 907 00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:52,839 Speaker 5: three or down four lignemen that they have, and that's 908 00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,120 Speaker 5: going to open up things for Sean Clifford. Plus, he's 909 00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,719 Speaker 5: mobile should be fresh and healthy for this game. You know, 910 00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,080 Speaker 5: there's a massive difference also finishing drives here. I mean, 911 00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:02,520 Speaker 5: Penn State was one of the best in the nation 912 00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:06,520 Speaker 5: with Mike Hearsitch. Utah fell to sixtieth in defensive finishing drives. 913 00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:08,800 Speaker 5: They allow a lot of people to score touchdowns, and 914 00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:11,000 Speaker 5: you know, there's just other things when it comes to 915 00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:14,600 Speaker 5: passing downs defense where Penn State definitely has the advantage here. 916 00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:16,920 Speaker 5: It's interesting you mentioned the rush to just to go 917 00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,640 Speaker 5: back and visit the rush real quick. Penn State has 918 00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:23,000 Speaker 5: this really interesting dynamic. We've seen it with a couple 919 00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:25,080 Speaker 5: of teams in the past, where they're second in the 920 00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:27,719 Speaker 5: nation and defensive stuff rate, which means they can meet 921 00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:30,120 Speaker 5: you at the line of scrimmage. They're also eighty second 922 00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:33,440 Speaker 5: allowing rush explosiveness, so if they do not meet at 923 00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:36,400 Speaker 5: the line of scrimmage, Utah can bust long runs. I 924 00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:38,560 Speaker 5: do trust the Penn State defense and third downs. I 925 00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:40,600 Speaker 5: do trust them in red zone, But to me, this 926 00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:44,680 Speaker 5: comes down to quarterback execution. Cam Riising has a much 927 00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,160 Speaker 5: tougher task versus Sean Clifford, who won't have any pressure, 928 00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:48,719 Speaker 5: and that's when he does his best. So I'm on 929 00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:49,799 Speaker 5: Penn State all the way here. 930 00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:53,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I just don't. I think Utah is gonna be 931 00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:57,120 Speaker 3: able to bully Head State in the trenches. I do. 932 00:44:57,280 --> 00:44:59,000 Speaker 3: I think they're gonna be able to establish the run here. 933 00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,040 Speaker 3: Penn State can't run the I don't. People have been 934 00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:04,040 Speaker 3: saying all year that they can. It is and that's 935 00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:07,160 Speaker 3: how you attack Utah on the ground. Head State one 936 00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:11,280 Speaker 3: hundred and fourth an opportunity rate, one hundred and first 937 00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:14,840 Speaker 3: in power success rate this team, and look you go 938 00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:18,120 Speaker 3: to Utah's lineyards top five across the board, top five 939 00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:21,200 Speaker 3: opportunity rate. I think they're gonna be able to establish 940 00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:23,799 Speaker 3: the ground game. That's what I want in a team 941 00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:26,840 Speaker 3: in a bowl, and I'll take the better coach. And 942 00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:29,640 Speaker 3: I think you talk gets to Donels Kinkada Phillips are playing. 943 00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:31,960 Speaker 3: I would love it, but I still like it. But 944 00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:35,160 Speaker 3: we can battle in the final, well, the second final game. 945 00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:38,319 Speaker 3: It's the we sold the national championship. But in order 946 00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:40,040 Speaker 3: to get to the National Championship, we first have to 947 00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:43,160 Speaker 3: play the College Ball Playoff semi finals. So let's go 948 00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:48,279 Speaker 3: back to Saturday, and let's finally what it's it been 949 00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:50,640 Speaker 3: a month. This is why I want expansions. 950 00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:50,920 Speaker 6: We don't. 951 00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:54,200 Speaker 3: I forget who's playing in the college ball plow. Let's 952 00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:58,239 Speaker 3: start with the Fiesta Bowl Saturday, New Year's Eve, December thirty, first, 953 00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:04,520 Speaker 3: four pm Eastern and ESPN Glendale, Arizona, TCU Michigan Wolverine 954 00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:07,560 Speaker 3: seven and a half point favorite here over under fifty. 955 00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,040 Speaker 1: Eight and a half the festival. 956 00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:13,440 Speaker 2: The Michigan football team is within sight of the summit 957 00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:16,640 Speaker 2: of their mountain. Their journey inspiration in part from those 958 00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,520 Speaker 2: who have climbed the world's highest mountain. 959 00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:24,359 Speaker 3: Fear the Frog. I got my purple on. I love TCU. Here, 960 00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,279 Speaker 3: do you want me to make my case? First? Your case? 961 00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:29,000 Speaker 6: I've been waiting to hear this go ahead. 962 00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:31,480 Speaker 3: The first thing is I make this line around five 963 00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,400 Speaker 3: to five and a half, and I was anti TCU 964 00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:37,200 Speaker 3: for a lot of the year. I think the Michigan 965 00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,560 Speaker 3: win over Ohio State, which I went back and watched 966 00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:43,960 Speaker 3: two times, is creating value in potentially both games. We'll 967 00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:46,920 Speaker 3: get to the second game late, but you know, Michigan 968 00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:49,799 Speaker 3: broke a couple of runs late. Other than that, they 969 00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:51,719 Speaker 3: couldn't run the ball all game. And then there was 970 00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:55,000 Speaker 3: two busted coverages. Basically had three hundred and fifty yards 971 00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:58,120 Speaker 3: on five plays. And you know Ohio State missed a 972 00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:01,160 Speaker 3: fake punt for a touchdown when they guy it was miscommunication. 973 00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:04,720 Speaker 3: That game was a lot closer than it appeared. Michigan 974 00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,759 Speaker 3: wasn't as impressive as I thought, But if you look 975 00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:10,680 Speaker 3: at the whole body of work for TCU, much more 976 00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:13,480 Speaker 3: impressive than Michigan. Strected record strength of schedule. This team 977 00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,920 Speaker 3: was tested week in and week out all year, whereas 978 00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,000 Speaker 3: Michigan when you have two or three tough games the 979 00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:22,480 Speaker 3: entire season. And one of the biggest things that why 980 00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:24,799 Speaker 3: I was fading TCU down the stretch is this team 981 00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:28,839 Speaker 3: didn't get a break. This team was no buys nine 982 00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:32,440 Speaker 3: straight ridiculous opponents. Michigan gets a buy every other week. 983 00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:34,480 Speaker 3: They played the little Sisters, the poor than non conference 984 00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:39,080 Speaker 3: nobody in the country, any Bowl team is going to 985 00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:42,799 Speaker 3: benefit from a long break more than TCU. Talk about 986 00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:45,680 Speaker 3: Max dug In, injuries, injuries across the board, just general 987 00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:49,040 Speaker 3: fatigue fast tracked by the way I think favors TCU. 988 00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:52,279 Speaker 3: I think TCU has better coordinators. I think Doug it'll 989 00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:55,480 Speaker 3: be unleashed with his running ability here. But when you 990 00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:58,960 Speaker 3: look at this from a matchup point of view, TCU 991 00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:01,480 Speaker 3: go back to the Texas game. I mean, so this 992 00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:03,479 Speaker 3: will be the best the best corners Michigan has faced 993 00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:05,919 Speaker 3: all year. That was the weakness of Ohio State still 994 00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,080 Speaker 3: is their corners on the outside. We'll get to that 995 00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:11,640 Speaker 3: game next, but these are the best corners besides Illinois. 996 00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:13,680 Speaker 3: And Illinois shut down Michigan and should have won that 997 00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:15,800 Speaker 3: game if they called the OFFENSI pass interference and we 998 00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:17,959 Speaker 3: probably wouldn't be talking about Michigan out because they would 999 00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:21,920 Speaker 3: have lost to Illinois. But you know, these the corners, Howes, Tomlinson, 1000 00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:24,640 Speaker 3: and Newton are fantastic on the outside. They can man 1001 00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:27,560 Speaker 3: up Michigan And then what what is t you're gonna 1002 00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:29,000 Speaker 3: have to do. They're gonna have to load the box. 1003 00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:31,520 Speaker 3: They're gonna come with run, blitzes and stunts. They're gonna 1004 00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:33,799 Speaker 3: have to treat in this Michigan offense just like they 1005 00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:35,960 Speaker 3: did b John Robinson, and they're gonna have to say 1006 00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,480 Speaker 3: to JJ McCarthy, beat as deep just like they did 1007 00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:41,040 Speaker 3: Quin yours quin yours couldn't do it. We'll see if 1008 00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:44,399 Speaker 3: McCarthy can against the best corners he will face all year. 1009 00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,320 Speaker 3: And if you you know, there was a couple of 1010 00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:49,759 Speaker 3: bus to places against a lot of state But for 1011 00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,040 Speaker 3: the most part McCarthy was very inconsistent all year. These 1012 00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:54,279 Speaker 3: receivers haven't been able to get separation. He hasn't been 1013 00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:57,960 Speaker 3: able to hit them deep consistently. And I think this 1014 00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:02,000 Speaker 3: TCU offense on this fast can hit enough explosive plays. 1015 00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:05,759 Speaker 3: I think Dougan gets unleashed here running the ball. And 1016 00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,359 Speaker 3: who what mobile quarterbacks in the Michigan faced this year 1017 00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:12,359 Speaker 3: one Sewan Clifford, who ran I think for eighty yards 1018 00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:14,800 Speaker 3: on seven carries and at a sixty yard touchdown. I 1019 00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:18,839 Speaker 3: think douglaf success there. And I think this TCU team 1020 00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:24,960 Speaker 3: is undervalued. I also just love these coordinators and give 1021 00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:28,320 Speaker 3: them a month to prepare. No one's given them a shot. 1022 00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:33,040 Speaker 3: I love the horn Frogs. I think they went out right. 1023 00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:41,160 Speaker 5: Yeah I disagree. Listen, Sunny Dyke's to run the air raid. 1024 00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:44,880 Speaker 5: You know, to run the air raid you have to 1025 00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:47,839 Speaker 5: have deep vertical shots with your wide receivers and if 1026 00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:50,400 Speaker 5: you have a light box you run the ball, and 1027 00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:52,240 Speaker 5: that's been the bread and butter all year. Max Duggan 1028 00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:54,160 Speaker 5: will take off. If there's a light box, then he's 1029 00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:56,040 Speaker 5: got Quentin Johnson and Tay Barbara, two of the most 1030 00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:58,880 Speaker 5: explosive targets in all of college football, lining up a 1031 00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:02,000 Speaker 5: white out and slot and you know Kendre Miller and 1032 00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:04,279 Speaker 5: Amri d mccardo along with Doug and running the ball. 1033 00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:06,680 Speaker 5: I mean, they've had seventy runs that go over ten yards, 1034 00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:10,160 Speaker 5: lots of first downs here. The mistakes are missing from 1035 00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:13,880 Speaker 5: Doug in this season thirty eight fumbles and interceptions entering 1036 00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:17,040 Speaker 5: in his career entering into this season, He's had just 1037 00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:19,480 Speaker 5: six total this year, So, I mean, it's really been impressive. 1038 00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:22,279 Speaker 5: I'm not going to downsize what TCU has been able 1039 00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:24,760 Speaker 5: to do, but this team is not consistent in putting 1040 00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:28,200 Speaker 5: together extended drives whatsoever. They're fifty first and standard down 1041 00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:30,680 Speaker 5: success right, they're fifty third and passing down success rate. 1042 00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:33,040 Speaker 5: They don't get as many first downs I believe they're 1043 00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:35,040 Speaker 5: forty first in the nation and first downs per game, 1044 00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:39,439 Speaker 5: so they have to rely on explosive plays to get 1045 00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:41,399 Speaker 5: points up on the board. They don't want to get 1046 00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:44,200 Speaker 5: into the red zone. TCU's eightieth and red zone efficiency, 1047 00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:48,640 Speaker 5: meaning explosive plays are the avenue to TCU scoring points. 1048 00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:51,640 Speaker 5: So let's flip over to the Michigan defense sixteenth in 1049 00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:54,360 Speaker 5: defensive expected points against the rush. 1050 00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:55,720 Speaker 6: And the pass. That's great. 1051 00:50:55,880 --> 00:51:00,320 Speaker 5: Michigan is third nationally and allowing opponent long runs. And 1052 00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:02,840 Speaker 5: I think what that tells me is the defensive coordinator 1053 00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,600 Speaker 5: jesse Minter is going to disguise the number of players 1054 00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:07,839 Speaker 5: he has in the tackle box. He's going to use 1055 00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,600 Speaker 5: aggressive blitz. He's going to go one on one man coverage. 1056 00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:12,680 Speaker 5: He's going to flip his zone, he's going to play quarters. 1057 00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,960 Speaker 5: He's going to change up everything he's doing on each down. 1058 00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:19,359 Speaker 5: And that's going to be an attempt to confuse Max 1059 00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,200 Speaker 5: Duggan into running the ball when there's actually more people 1060 00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:25,359 Speaker 5: in the box or passing the ball, like flashing one 1061 00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:28,440 Speaker 5: single high safety versus two in a shell. Like I 1062 00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:32,120 Speaker 5: just think, you know, defensive coordinator jesse Minter has just 1063 00:51:32,320 --> 00:51:35,239 Speaker 5: put together masterpieces and he could change on the fly, 1064 00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:37,600 Speaker 5: and I think that's a huge difference here in kind 1065 00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:40,880 Speaker 5: of stopping this TCU offense. But really Michigan's ability to 1066 00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:43,080 Speaker 5: stop the exposed to play is kind of what settled 1067 00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:45,080 Speaker 5: it for me. Go to the other side of the 1068 00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:47,680 Speaker 5: ball stuck. I mean tc runs the three three five stack. 1069 00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:52,080 Speaker 5: Joseph Gillespie likes to mix in stunts slants. But you're 1070 00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:54,680 Speaker 5: doing this against what I think is the best offensive 1071 00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:57,120 Speaker 5: line in college football. All five of these guys have 1072 00:51:57,200 --> 00:52:02,680 Speaker 5: the capability of pulling in any kind of formation and 1073 00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:06,360 Speaker 5: really running reverse and counters and confusing defenses. And TCU 1074 00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:09,880 Speaker 5: has been heard by offenses that use motion and reverse 1075 00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:13,200 Speaker 5: en counterplays that is a It's not a good formula 1076 00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:15,160 Speaker 5: for the TCU defense because they've been burned by these 1077 00:52:15,280 --> 00:52:17,920 Speaker 5: kinds of offensive lines that are really good in misdirection. 1078 00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:21,400 Speaker 5: And the pace of how often Michigan's scores completely depends 1079 00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:23,840 Speaker 5: on if the TCU safeties are going to move in 1080 00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:27,120 Speaker 5: and try to help against Donovan Edwards, or whether jjmccar 1081 00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:29,160 Speaker 5: and George J. McCarthy's going to keep it on the ground, 1082 00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:31,439 Speaker 5: or if they are going to stay back and allow 1083 00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:33,920 Speaker 5: JJ McCarthy to hit crossers across the middle against a 1084 00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:37,239 Speaker 5: lighter box. So the Michigan pace of scoring is going 1085 00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:39,480 Speaker 5: to be determined by what the defense does. If they're 1086 00:52:39,520 --> 00:52:42,160 Speaker 5: playing close or if they're playing back. But you know, 1087 00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:45,040 Speaker 5: considering these teams are the same strength of schedule, same 1088 00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:48,120 Speaker 5: strength of record, Michigan is the better team third downs 1089 00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:52,399 Speaker 5: success rate, special teams. But more importantly, TCU can only 1090 00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:55,120 Speaker 5: score on teams that allow explosive plays, and Michigan just 1091 00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:58,120 Speaker 5: doesn't do it. So I'm all in on Michigan here. 1092 00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:01,920 Speaker 5: I grabbed the seven, bought it minus one twenty. I 1093 00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:02,880 Speaker 5: would only play it at that. 1094 00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:03,440 Speaker 6: This is a game. 1095 00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:06,959 Speaker 5: I do make it six and a half. But listen, 1096 00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:09,360 Speaker 5: TCU has been funn all year. They've relied on the 1097 00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:11,919 Speaker 5: explosive play way too much. And when you are betting 1098 00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:14,160 Speaker 5: on teams that rely on the explosive play, you're essentially 1099 00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:16,240 Speaker 5: sitting at the craft's table and throwing a couple numbers 1100 00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:18,200 Speaker 5: down and hoping that it hits. I mean, it is 1101 00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:21,160 Speaker 5: not a sustainable model. And I'm not trying to play 1102 00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:23,200 Speaker 5: all like I bet on tc the entire season now, 1103 00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:25,160 Speaker 5: jumping off, I'm just saying I've seen this team as 1104 00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:28,480 Speaker 5: much as anybody, and you know, Michigan stops the exposed 1105 00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:30,400 Speaker 5: to play and that takes away TCU's biggest weapon. 1106 00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:34,759 Speaker 3: I actually think tc look and I think Dugan's running 1107 00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:36,399 Speaker 3: a building. Now that these healthy is going to be huge, 1108 00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:40,200 Speaker 3: and that was the key against I think Kansas State 1109 00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:41,759 Speaker 3: they were how they almost won that game that he 1110 00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:43,440 Speaker 3: ran for one hundred fifty yards. I think he'll be 1111 00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:46,880 Speaker 3: unleashed there. And by the way, strength is schedule, it 1112 00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:49,840 Speaker 3: is not even close. Michigan's I think sixtieth in the country. 1113 00:53:50,360 --> 00:53:54,440 Speaker 3: TCUs is top fifteen. Michigan's defensive metrics better be elite. 1114 00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:57,440 Speaker 3: They played nobody all year. I mean, this is a 1115 00:53:57,480 --> 00:54:02,320 Speaker 3: team that played Colorado State, Hawaii, Yukon, Iowa might be 1116 00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:08,160 Speaker 3: the worst offense. They faced Indiana, Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska 1117 00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:13,280 Speaker 3: with Chubba Purdy, Illinois Perdue put up five hundred yards. 1118 00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:15,440 Speaker 3: I mean, how could Purdue put up five hundred ards 1119 00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:19,399 Speaker 3: against the Ohio State was a good win. Maryland put 1120 00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:22,080 Speaker 3: out twenty seven and four hundred yards, and then you 1121 00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:23,920 Speaker 3: know Penn State they dominate. I mean, this is a 1122 00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:27,920 Speaker 3: team that had ten cakewalks basically from an offensive standpoint 1123 00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:31,080 Speaker 3: of who they faced, and we're I will make I 1124 00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,560 Speaker 3: think Michigan's going to have success running the ball, of course, 1125 00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:35,200 Speaker 3: but I also think that TC is gonna have a 1126 00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:36,759 Speaker 3: really good game plan and sell out against it, just 1127 00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:39,280 Speaker 3: like they did against Texas. They held b Jhon Robinson 1128 00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:41,600 Speaker 3: and a really good Texas offensive line to what B 1129 00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:44,000 Speaker 3: John ms A thirty yards? And I'll take b Jon 1130 00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:46,480 Speaker 3: Robinson ever Donovan Edwards any day of the week. And 1131 00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:49,160 Speaker 3: you know, I just don't know. Have Blake Korn here. 1132 00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:51,160 Speaker 3: And if you look at JJ McCarthy, look if he 1133 00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:55,520 Speaker 3: comes out and slings and hits explosive passes against TCU, 1134 00:54:55,600 --> 00:55:01,320 Speaker 3: if they're gonna make him do that, fine, I will say, great, congrats. 1135 00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:04,160 Speaker 3: He deserved to win. But this is a guy that 1136 00:55:04,840 --> 00:55:07,520 Speaker 3: was very inconsistent all year against Nebraska was eight of 1137 00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:09,600 Speaker 3: seventeen for one hundred and twenty yards. People forget this, 1138 00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:12,160 Speaker 3: Rutgers thirteen to twenty eight, one hundred and fifty yards, 1139 00:55:12,840 --> 00:55:17,560 Speaker 3: very inconsistent all year. Receivers struggled to get separation, and 1140 00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:19,640 Speaker 3: these will be the best corners they face. So you 1141 00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:21,879 Speaker 3: can man up on the outside, sell up against the run, 1142 00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:24,839 Speaker 3: and say, McCarthy beat me. That was the exact game 1143 00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:28,919 Speaker 3: plan against Texas and Quinn yours who couldn't be beat 1144 00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:31,680 Speaker 3: them deep, who couldn't hit the deep pass. I think 1145 00:55:31,719 --> 00:55:35,160 Speaker 3: that's the game plan here, and I think TCU on offense, 1146 00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:38,480 Speaker 3: they have enough talent here with their NFL receivers, one 1147 00:55:38,480 --> 00:55:40,320 Speaker 3: of the most underrated bats in the country, and a 1148 00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:43,799 Speaker 3: mobile quarterback. I love the coordinators, I love the prep. 1149 00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:46,239 Speaker 3: No one's giving TCU a chance here. I think they 1150 00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:50,200 Speaker 3: are much more battle tested than Michigan. I'm buying TCU. 1151 00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:51,799 Speaker 3: I can't wait for this game. 1152 00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:55,279 Speaker 5: Minute that Michigan was playing possim all year. I mean, 1153 00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:57,600 Speaker 5: I keep going back to how they refuse to pass 1154 00:55:57,640 --> 00:56:00,239 Speaker 5: against Illinois, and then they showed up next week and 1155 00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:02,000 Speaker 5: just blew a Hio State out of the water with deep, 1156 00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:04,759 Speaker 5: explosive plays at Cornelius Johnson and he every thought that 1157 00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:07,120 Speaker 5: maybe they've been playing possum the entire year. 1158 00:56:07,840 --> 00:56:10,719 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, but against Purdue, yeah, a game they 1159 00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:12,320 Speaker 3: probably had a win. I mean that game was in 1160 00:56:12,400 --> 00:56:15,479 Speaker 3: jeopardy till the end and they go five hundred yards. 1161 00:56:15,520 --> 00:56:18,200 Speaker 3: But yeah, but I mean, but McCarthy when he went 1162 00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:20,320 Speaker 3: to when he tried to throw, he couldn't hit receivers 1163 00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:22,040 Speaker 3: and they couldn't get open and there was drops like 1164 00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:24,680 Speaker 3: this is an issue for Michigan. And if you look 1165 00:56:24,680 --> 00:56:29,000 Speaker 3: at that Ohio State game, it was five plays there 1166 00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:32,560 Speaker 3: was two broken runs when Ohio State was playing Cover 1167 00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:35,080 Speaker 3: zero and there was an eighty yard and eighty yard 1168 00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:38,120 Speaker 3: touchdown run. That was it. Before then, Michigan averaged three 1169 00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:40,680 Speaker 3: yards per play. And then there was two broken coverages. 1170 00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:42,879 Speaker 3: One there was a bust of coverage and the other 1171 00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:46,520 Speaker 3: there was a mistackle that went deep that was that 1172 00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:49,640 Speaker 3: was it. I mean, you take away that Michigan average. 1173 00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:51,160 Speaker 3: I think three point one yards were played if you 1174 00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:52,240 Speaker 3: take away those five plays. 1175 00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:53,560 Speaker 6: So I don't know. 1176 00:56:53,600 --> 00:56:55,360 Speaker 3: I'm gonna make McCarthy prove it to me if they 1177 00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:58,200 Speaker 3: were playing possum and then just come out here and dominate. 1178 00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:03,120 Speaker 3: But there's there's been cracks in Michigan at times. You 1179 00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:04,800 Speaker 3: go back to that Illinois game, you go back to 1180 00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:07,520 Speaker 3: that Maryland game, and then there's just eight or nine 1181 00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:11,399 Speaker 3: games where they were playing nobody's I know what I'm 1182 00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:14,080 Speaker 3: gonna get from TCU. The defense isn't gonna be e leade, 1183 00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:15,920 Speaker 3: it's gonna be great, but they're gonna have great game plans. 1184 00:57:16,240 --> 00:57:17,800 Speaker 3: And this is a team that was battle tested do 1185 00:57:18,360 --> 00:57:20,640 Speaker 3: basically for ten weeks in a row, and I think 1186 00:57:20,720 --> 00:57:24,200 Speaker 3: this break is massive for them, Like they just to 1187 00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:28,080 Speaker 3: heal like for and then also just take a breath. 1188 00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:30,720 Speaker 3: They were they this is a team. That's why I 1189 00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:32,480 Speaker 3: was we were fading them down the stretch. Right, there 1190 00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:34,440 Speaker 3: was nine weeks in a row. This team is playing 1191 00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:37,320 Speaker 3: ranked team, ranked team, ranked team, ranked team without a break. 1192 00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:40,560 Speaker 3: I mean, Michigan gets to play you know, you get 1193 00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:42,800 Speaker 3: breaks all the time. You get to play Rutgers, and 1194 00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:49,120 Speaker 3: you know, Nebraska's backups and Indiana. So like, I think 1195 00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:51,120 Speaker 3: TC is gonna benefit so much from this break, and 1196 00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:54,280 Speaker 3: I really respect I think they're the best coordinators combined 1197 00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:58,360 Speaker 3: offensive and defensive in college football, and I think that 1198 00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:01,240 Speaker 3: is what's gonna pay off with a month break. So 1199 00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:04,640 Speaker 3: I'll glad they take anything over seven. And I think 1200 00:58:04,680 --> 00:58:06,480 Speaker 3: TC wan's out right. We'll have to have a side 1201 00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:07,080 Speaker 3: bet on this one. 1202 00:58:07,560 --> 00:58:09,880 Speaker 5: Well, we'll be in I think we'll be in Vegas. 1203 00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:11,560 Speaker 5: You and I are going to share a night in 1204 00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:14,440 Speaker 5: Vegas before the national title game. I think the other 1205 00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:17,280 Speaker 5: one picks up dinner. We'll make the line officially seven 1206 00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:18,680 Speaker 5: and a half. I'll give you seven and a half, 1207 00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:21,080 Speaker 5: all right, fair enough, all right? 1208 00:58:21,160 --> 00:58:23,680 Speaker 3: Before we continue, As a reminder, the Big Bets on 1209 00:58:23,760 --> 00:58:27,480 Speaker 3: Campus podcast is probably presented by bet MGM. So kick 1210 00:58:27,520 --> 00:58:30,440 Speaker 3: off the new Pro football season with the King of Sportsbooks. 1211 00:58:30,600 --> 00:58:33,600 Speaker 3: Sign up with BETEMGM using Bonus Code Action two hundred, 1212 00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:36,680 Speaker 3: and your first wager is risk free up to one 1213 00:58:36,960 --> 00:58:45,960 Speaker 3: thousand dollars. Visit BETMGM dot com for terms and conditions. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, 1214 00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:49,200 Speaker 3: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, DC, 1215 00:58:49,280 --> 00:58:51,800 Speaker 3: West Virginia, Wyoming, or Ontario only. Must be twenty one 1216 00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:54,200 Speaker 3: years or older to wager nineteen or older in Ontario 1217 00:58:54,440 --> 00:58:57,000 Speaker 3: New Customer Offer. All promotions are subject to qualification and 1218 00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,800 Speaker 3: eligibility requirements. The rewards issued as a non withdrawble free 1219 00:58:59,800 --> 00:59:01,840 Speaker 3: beat to recite credit free bets expired seven days from 1220 00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:06,160 Speaker 3: issuants excludes Michigan disassociated persons. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem 1221 00:59:06,240 --> 00:59:09,080 Speaker 3: call one hundred Next Step in Arizona one one hundred 1222 00:59:09,120 --> 00:59:13,400 Speaker 3: five two two forty seven hundred in Colorado, DC, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, Wyoming, 1223 00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:15,520 Speaker 3: cort Virginia one one hundred two seven zero seven to 1224 00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:18,080 Speaker 3: one one seven for confidential help. In Michigan on one 1225 00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:20,640 Speaker 3: hundred gambler in Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, or West Virginia. 1226 00:59:20,840 --> 00:59:23,640 Speaker 3: One eight hundred bets off in Iowa one hundred nine 1227 00:59:23,680 --> 00:59:26,120 Speaker 3: eight one zero zero two three. In Puerto Rico, call 1228 00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:29,280 Speaker 3: eight seven seven eight Hope, n Y. Or text Hope NY. 1229 00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:31,680 Speaker 3: In New York call our text the Tennessee Redline at 1230 00:59:31,720 --> 00:59:33,600 Speaker 3: eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine or 1231 00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:36,160 Speaker 3: one eighty eight seven seven seven nine six nine six 1232 00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:38,280 Speaker 3: in Mississippi. In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns 1233 00:59:38,280 --> 00:59:40,600 Speaker 3: about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact 1234 00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:43,520 Speaker 3: Connects Ontario at one eight six six five three one 1235 00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:46,000 Speaker 3: two six zero zero to speak to an advisor free 1236 00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:48,400 Speaker 3: of charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio, 1237 00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:51,240 Speaker 3: in Utah and other states were prohibited. Promotional offers not 1238 00:59:51,320 --> 00:59:55,120 Speaker 3: available in Nevada and New York. All right, let's move 1239 00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:59,280 Speaker 3: on to the second semi final game. Let's go to 1240 00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:06,080 Speaker 3: the Peach Bowl Saturday night, Ohio State, Georgia, Georgia six 1241 01:00:06,160 --> 01:00:09,040 Speaker 3: and a half point favoritear of under sixty two. This 1242 01:00:09,160 --> 01:00:13,400 Speaker 3: game will we played in New Year's Eve, APM Eastern ESPN, Atlanta, Georgia. 1243 01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:17,560 Speaker 2: The Peach Bowl those are the Ohio State Buck guys 1244 01:00:17,640 --> 01:00:20,040 Speaker 2: knocking on the front door, and they come in with 1245 01:00:20,160 --> 01:00:23,320 Speaker 2: the world have incented as they pondered their plight and 1246 01:00:23,360 --> 01:00:26,520 Speaker 2: their way through the season, and so far, so good, 1247 01:00:26,960 --> 01:00:30,480 Speaker 2: and right now the Bucks played they can play with anybody. Well, 1248 01:00:30,840 --> 01:00:32,560 Speaker 2: we are about to find out. 1249 01:00:33,960 --> 01:00:37,680 Speaker 3: It's be a third game that Georgia gets to play 1250 01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:40,880 Speaker 3: in this stadium. They played Oregon open the season, and 1251 01:00:40,960 --> 01:00:44,480 Speaker 3: then of course the SEC Championship and now the Collegewall 1252 01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:47,360 Speaker 3: Playoffs semi final. I'll let you go first in this 1253 01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:49,280 Speaker 3: I don't know if we're going to dis I don't 1254 01:00:49,280 --> 01:00:51,080 Speaker 3: even know what you like in this game. Make your 1255 01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:54,200 Speaker 3: case for your favorite vet or what you see just 1256 01:00:54,280 --> 01:00:56,000 Speaker 3: from a matchup perspective in this game. 1257 01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:59,040 Speaker 5: So Ryan Day has heard for a month that he's conservative, 1258 01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:02,080 Speaker 5: he can't coach in the game. He's heard about how 1259 01:01:02,200 --> 01:01:05,040 Speaker 5: bad he coached in the Michigan game, and the offensive 1260 01:01:05,080 --> 01:01:09,320 Speaker 5: play calling here should be ultra aggressive. I know he 1261 01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:11,760 Speaker 5: came out against that Notre Dame team in week one 1262 01:01:11,840 --> 01:01:13,720 Speaker 5: and said, we need to be more blue collar, we 1263 01:01:13,760 --> 01:01:15,040 Speaker 5: need to run the ball, we need to show we 1264 01:01:15,040 --> 01:01:17,600 Speaker 5: can run the ball. Well, I mean, you're you're completely 1265 01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:20,160 Speaker 5: depleted in the running back room. You're down to mine Williams. 1266 01:01:20,200 --> 01:01:22,800 Speaker 5: We don't know if he's exactly healthy or not so. 1267 01:01:23,440 --> 01:01:26,000 Speaker 5: And plus, when you're going to face a Georgia defense, 1268 01:01:26,160 --> 01:01:29,200 Speaker 5: not just this year, but any year, you cannot beat 1269 01:01:29,240 --> 01:01:31,840 Speaker 5: them in a phone booth. They want to punch you 1270 01:01:31,960 --> 01:01:34,520 Speaker 5: in the face and grind you down. The best way 1271 01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:37,280 Speaker 5: to be Georgia Tennessee tried to do it. You have 1272 01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:40,200 Speaker 5: to spread it out as far wide as possible, and 1273 01:01:40,440 --> 01:01:42,040 Speaker 5: you have to try to, you know, get them all 1274 01:01:42,120 --> 01:01:42,760 Speaker 5: out in space. 1275 01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:46,120 Speaker 6: Tennessee. I keep going back to that game. 1276 01:01:46,200 --> 01:01:49,880 Speaker 5: I mean field conditions, the rain, like they had a chance, 1277 01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:51,920 Speaker 5: they had a drive to cover the spread at the 1278 01:01:52,080 --> 01:01:54,120 Speaker 5: end there, and you have to think after a couple 1279 01:01:54,160 --> 01:01:56,800 Speaker 5: of mistakes, you know, I remember we went back and 1280 01:01:56,840 --> 01:01:59,560 Speaker 5: we said this, like they got behind the Georgia defense 1281 01:01:59,640 --> 01:02:03,120 Speaker 5: three times, three times they had drops or just miscues, 1282 01:02:03,280 --> 01:02:05,960 Speaker 5: like it was there for Tennessee to not just cover 1283 01:02:06,080 --> 01:02:08,400 Speaker 5: that game, but possibly win. So you got to think, 1284 01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:11,600 Speaker 5: Ohio State can't run the ball. We don't know how 1285 01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:13,880 Speaker 5: healthy Mayan Williams is. The offensive line may may be 1286 01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:15,600 Speaker 5: able to, but why would you run into the teeth 1287 01:02:15,600 --> 01:02:18,320 Speaker 5: of his defense on the defensive line. Everything to me 1288 01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:22,240 Speaker 5: points to CJ. Stroud throwing to his favorite. 1289 01:02:22,000 --> 01:02:24,720 Speaker 6: Zone on the field, which is beyond twenty yards and 1290 01:02:24,840 --> 01:02:27,400 Speaker 6: within the hash marks. That is where c J. 1291 01:02:27,480 --> 01:02:30,240 Speaker 5: Stroud has just been able to cook this season. Passes 1292 01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:32,440 Speaker 5: over twenty plus yards this year twenty one big time, 1293 01:02:32,520 --> 01:02:35,440 Speaker 5: throws five turnover worthy plays, and like I said, his 1294 01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:36,240 Speaker 5: best zone. 1295 01:02:36,080 --> 01:02:37,120 Speaker 6: Is the deep one in the middle. 1296 01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:41,200 Speaker 5: Both defenses run heavy zone coverage concepts. They run man 1297 01:02:41,280 --> 01:02:43,920 Speaker 5: about just thirty percent of the time. And the best 1298 01:02:44,000 --> 01:02:46,840 Speaker 5: ride receivers in this game Marvin Harrison three yards per 1299 01:02:46,960 --> 01:02:50,040 Speaker 5: route run, Mecca Agbuca even three and a half yards 1300 01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:53,960 Speaker 5: per route run when they face zone coverage. And you know, 1301 01:02:54,120 --> 01:02:55,760 Speaker 5: I think the one name that we haven't mentioned a 1302 01:02:55,840 --> 01:02:59,000 Speaker 5: lot because he's had intermittent playing time is Jaden Ballard. 1303 01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:01,600 Speaker 5: He's had limited ash in the season, but he has 1304 01:03:01,720 --> 01:03:04,600 Speaker 5: the burners to get behind any defense here. The only 1305 01:03:04,680 --> 01:03:06,720 Speaker 5: way that I think Ohio State is going to have 1306 01:03:06,800 --> 01:03:09,200 Speaker 5: success getting points up on the board is to be 1307 01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:13,520 Speaker 5: completely aggressive from the very first snap and letting CJ. 1308 01:03:13,640 --> 01:03:14,320 Speaker 6: Stroud go deep. 1309 01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:16,240 Speaker 5: Now, the book out on CJ. Stroud, and we've talked 1310 01:03:16,240 --> 01:03:19,560 Speaker 5: about it all year. He has been horrific with pressure 1311 01:03:19,680 --> 01:03:24,120 Speaker 5: in his face. I mean sixty four pressure dropbacks. He's 1312 01:03:24,160 --> 01:03:27,120 Speaker 5: had three big time throws and seven turnoverworthy plays. He 1313 01:03:27,240 --> 01:03:30,280 Speaker 5: takes a thirty percent drop and adjust a completion percentage 1314 01:03:30,320 --> 01:03:33,280 Speaker 5: when he does have pressure on him. So the question 1315 01:03:33,520 --> 01:03:36,920 Speaker 5: is is will Georgia continue to run just a three 1316 01:03:36,920 --> 01:03:38,760 Speaker 5: to four man front and try to get pressure with 1317 01:03:38,920 --> 01:03:41,680 Speaker 5: that and send everybody else back, which is what they've done. 1318 01:03:41,720 --> 01:03:44,120 Speaker 5: I mean, you're going to see Georgia doesn't have any 1319 01:03:44,200 --> 01:03:45,360 Speaker 5: kind of pass rush whatsoever. 1320 01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:47,840 Speaker 6: That's by design. They don't like to send a lot 1321 01:03:47,880 --> 01:03:48,200 Speaker 6: of guys. 1322 01:03:48,240 --> 01:03:51,080 Speaker 5: They would rather sit back, play quarters coverage, you know, 1323 01:03:51,240 --> 01:03:53,960 Speaker 5: kind of confuse the quarterback, you know, after the snap, 1324 01:03:54,320 --> 01:03:56,040 Speaker 5: and then they kind of show if they're playing manner 1325 01:03:56,120 --> 01:03:59,160 Speaker 5: zone after that. But the only way Ohio State is 1326 01:03:59,160 --> 01:04:01,160 Speaker 5: scoring points here is if they get aggressive and they 1327 01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:03,320 Speaker 5: go downfield. And considering Ryan Day has to hear this 1328 01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:06,720 Speaker 5: every single day for six weeks, I think that's exactly 1329 01:04:06,800 --> 01:04:08,240 Speaker 5: what we're going to see, and there's been success. 1330 01:04:08,440 --> 01:04:11,320 Speaker 6: Tennessee can do it? Ohow say can do it? Now? 1331 01:04:11,360 --> 01:04:13,000 Speaker 6: You go to the other side of the ball with Georgia. 1332 01:04:13,480 --> 01:04:16,160 Speaker 5: There's so many offensive advantages here against Ohio State has 1333 01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:19,320 Speaker 5: been poor at stopping the explosive play one hundred and 1334 01:04:19,400 --> 01:04:23,120 Speaker 5: twenty fifth and giving up explosives and passing downs. So 1335 01:04:23,320 --> 01:04:25,720 Speaker 5: good job if you stop Georgia on first or second down, 1336 01:04:25,800 --> 01:04:28,400 Speaker 5: But then you've got a serious problem about what you 1337 01:04:28,520 --> 01:04:30,080 Speaker 5: give up on the back end, and it doesn't help 1338 01:04:30,120 --> 01:04:32,880 Speaker 5: playing cover zero against Michigan and not having anybody there 1339 01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:33,760 Speaker 5: at the second level. 1340 01:04:34,120 --> 01:04:36,160 Speaker 6: Maybe that'll change, Maybe. 1341 01:04:35,680 --> 01:04:38,160 Speaker 5: Jim Knowles will keep two safeties back, but then again 1342 01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:40,000 Speaker 5: you're allowing stets had been it and the tight ends, 1343 01:04:40,040 --> 01:04:43,560 Speaker 5: and you're allowing everybody to work at the line of scrimmage, 1344 01:04:43,560 --> 01:04:46,200 Speaker 5: which Georgia can win there too. You know, in Ohio 1345 01:04:46,240 --> 01:04:49,400 Speaker 5: State's one hundred and twenty first and defensive red zone efficiency, 1346 01:04:49,520 --> 01:04:51,360 Speaker 5: I didn't know it was that bad. I had no 1347 01:04:51,440 --> 01:04:53,920 Speaker 5: clue that were bottom ten and red zone efficiency on defense. 1348 01:04:54,360 --> 01:04:58,440 Speaker 5: So looking at all this, Georgia will have no resistance 1349 01:04:58,480 --> 01:05:00,960 Speaker 5: with whatever they decide to do. It doesn't look by 1350 01:05:01,000 --> 01:05:02,920 Speaker 5: Georgia is gonna send pressure because they never do, which 1351 01:05:02,960 --> 01:05:05,240 Speaker 5: allows CJ. Stroud to throw to his favorite spot, which 1352 01:05:05,320 --> 01:05:08,720 Speaker 5: is behind the defense. I see points galore here. I 1353 01:05:08,760 --> 01:05:10,800 Speaker 5: would play it up to. The key number is sixty five, 1354 01:05:10,840 --> 01:05:12,760 Speaker 5: I think what sixty two and a half sixty three 1355 01:05:12,800 --> 01:05:13,200 Speaker 5: in the market. 1356 01:05:13,280 --> 01:05:14,120 Speaker 6: I love the over here. 1357 01:05:15,160 --> 01:05:17,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't disagree in the over I actually like 1358 01:05:17,120 --> 01:05:20,680 Speaker 3: Ohio State. After digging into it, I think again that 1359 01:05:20,800 --> 01:05:24,120 Speaker 3: Michigan Ohio State game is creating value in this number, 1360 01:05:24,400 --> 01:05:25,720 Speaker 3: which I think should be close to to three and 1361 01:05:25,720 --> 01:05:30,160 Speaker 3: a half or four. And like so when I look 1362 01:05:30,200 --> 01:05:31,640 Speaker 3: at this from a matchup point of view, and by 1363 01:05:31,640 --> 01:05:33,040 Speaker 3: the way, Ohio State was dealing with injuries on the 1364 01:05:33,080 --> 01:05:34,840 Speaker 3: defensive side of the ball all year, so I think 1365 01:05:34,880 --> 01:05:37,439 Speaker 3: this month and when they played Michigan, look Cam Brown. 1366 01:05:38,120 --> 01:05:40,120 Speaker 3: Their corner went out in the first half. They were 1367 01:05:40,160 --> 01:05:43,720 Speaker 3: down to like their fourth string running back. And like 1368 01:05:43,880 --> 01:05:45,640 Speaker 3: I said, it was like four or five explosive plays 1369 01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:48,640 Speaker 3: which matter, and they've been bad at defending them. But 1370 01:05:48,760 --> 01:05:51,080 Speaker 3: I think that they on the defensive side of the ball. 1371 01:05:51,960 --> 01:05:55,120 Speaker 3: I think what Knowles does in how he's aggressive and 1372 01:05:55,200 --> 01:05:58,360 Speaker 3: how he dictates with his stunts and his prestat movement, 1373 01:05:58,680 --> 01:06:00,440 Speaker 3: not letting Georgia dictate, which is what they do. I 1374 01:06:00,480 --> 01:06:04,080 Speaker 3: mean Georgia, they use their tight ends brilliantly. Brock Bowers 1375 01:06:04,120 --> 01:06:07,840 Speaker 3: in Washington. I mean they can block. I think you 1376 01:06:07,920 --> 01:06:10,120 Speaker 3: can throw them a ball. The hours can take the 1377 01:06:10,200 --> 01:06:12,680 Speaker 3: ball to the end around and now, and he's huge 1378 01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:14,960 Speaker 3: and can still outrun everybody. They're amazing. I mean, they 1379 01:06:15,040 --> 01:06:18,160 Speaker 3: run twelve personnel, the third highest rate in the country. 1380 01:06:18,880 --> 01:06:22,320 Speaker 3: But I think what what Ohio State's gonna do here 1381 01:06:22,360 --> 01:06:25,680 Speaker 3: is they're gonna put Hickman and Ransom on both of 1382 01:06:25,760 --> 01:06:28,680 Speaker 3: the tight ends, basically manned a man, and they're gonna 1383 01:06:28,680 --> 01:06:30,840 Speaker 3: have McCallister played free safety. That's what they did against 1384 01:06:30,880 --> 01:06:33,480 Speaker 3: Notre Dame when they held Michael Meyer and the other 1385 01:06:33,880 --> 01:06:36,760 Speaker 3: tight end in check to Both of these guys are 1386 01:06:36,880 --> 01:06:40,400 Speaker 3: very physical, elite in coverage. They are the strength of 1387 01:06:40,480 --> 01:06:43,400 Speaker 3: Ohio State secondary. They are still weak on the outside 1388 01:06:43,400 --> 01:06:46,600 Speaker 3: at corner you know Denzel Burke, Cam Brown, but that's 1389 01:06:46,640 --> 01:06:49,760 Speaker 3: not really the strength of Georgia's team as they're outside receivers. 1390 01:06:49,800 --> 01:06:52,320 Speaker 3: So I think it's look and Ohio State run defense 1391 01:06:52,960 --> 01:06:55,360 Speaker 3: two broken runs late against Michigan when they were selling out, 1392 01:06:55,920 --> 01:06:59,680 Speaker 3: has been an outstanding all season long. They also can 1393 01:07:00,120 --> 01:07:03,840 Speaker 3: They can really generate pressure with Jtt and company and 1394 01:07:03,880 --> 01:07:06,880 Speaker 3: Harrison off the edge. Their run defense has been good 1395 01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:09,000 Speaker 3: all year. I think their run defense will hang here, 1396 01:07:09,080 --> 01:07:11,760 Speaker 3: and their red zone d has been bad Georgia's red zone. 1397 01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:13,680 Speaker 3: Oh that's been the biggest question. But I think they 1398 01:07:13,720 --> 01:07:16,200 Speaker 3: can actually match up with the Titans scheme wise. I 1399 01:07:16,320 --> 01:07:21,240 Speaker 3: think they can cause some trouble for Georgia and this 1400 01:07:21,360 --> 01:07:23,880 Speaker 3: will be the best Ohio State has issues of defense, 1401 01:07:23,880 --> 01:07:26,480 Speaker 3: but this is the best defense that George's faced all year. 1402 01:07:26,840 --> 01:07:30,440 Speaker 3: If you look, I mean, like Kentucky pretty similar. I mean, 1403 01:07:30,760 --> 01:07:33,600 Speaker 3: I'm talking talent wise for Ohio State. And I think 1404 01:07:33,640 --> 01:07:36,000 Speaker 3: that a month off can really help Ohio State's defense 1405 01:07:36,040 --> 01:07:38,720 Speaker 3: because it's a first time coordinator. So Nole's getting all 1406 01:07:38,800 --> 01:07:41,440 Speaker 3: this time off plus an extra week I think can 1407 01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:45,800 Speaker 3: really benefit Ohio State here because he basically is installing 1408 01:07:45,840 --> 01:07:48,320 Speaker 3: the system. It's a first year defensive coordinator, So I 1409 01:07:48,400 --> 01:07:50,720 Speaker 3: think that side of the ball will have the biggest 1410 01:07:50,760 --> 01:07:53,040 Speaker 3: benefit from the time all. On the other side, you 1411 01:07:53,120 --> 01:07:55,480 Speaker 3: mentioned it, I think that how you attack this Georgia 1412 01:07:55,880 --> 01:07:58,160 Speaker 3: team is you have to hit deep shots on the outside, 1413 01:07:58,280 --> 01:08:00,960 Speaker 3: which Ohio State is certainly capable of doing. Then you 1414 01:08:01,120 --> 01:08:03,960 Speaker 3: have to, you know, you open up that defense, you 1415 01:08:04,120 --> 01:08:06,280 Speaker 3: make them go too high safeties, and then you attack 1416 01:08:06,320 --> 01:08:08,360 Speaker 3: over the middle of the field, which is where Stroud 1417 01:08:08,600 --> 01:08:09,880 Speaker 3: has excelled. 1418 01:08:09,480 --> 01:08:10,280 Speaker 6: All year long. 1419 01:08:10,800 --> 01:08:12,400 Speaker 3: So I think Ohaw State will be able to have 1420 01:08:12,480 --> 01:08:16,719 Speaker 3: success here on offense enough on defense to keep this close. 1421 01:08:17,080 --> 01:08:18,960 Speaker 3: Georgia is gonna get their points sets in ben It's 1422 01:08:19,000 --> 01:08:22,200 Speaker 3: been awesome this year, but I think it's actually a 1423 01:08:22,240 --> 01:08:24,920 Speaker 3: decent match prose and I also think Georgia and I 1424 01:08:25,000 --> 01:08:28,400 Speaker 3: think this is true for Michigan and Georgia. I think 1425 01:08:28,439 --> 01:08:31,400 Speaker 3: both of these teams would rather play these games outdoors 1426 01:08:31,680 --> 01:08:36,240 Speaker 3: in winter weather. I think the fast track benefits TCU 1427 01:08:36,640 --> 01:08:40,040 Speaker 3: and Ohio State in both of these matchups. So I 1428 01:08:40,080 --> 01:08:43,200 Speaker 3: think the Ohio State speed, just like the TCU speed, 1429 01:08:43,640 --> 01:08:46,120 Speaker 3: can have some success here. I think this line's too 1430 01:08:46,160 --> 01:08:48,160 Speaker 3: I I'm waiting for seven. I would even buy maybe 1431 01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:51,680 Speaker 3: seven minus one, fifteen, maybe a little more. If it 1432 01:08:51,760 --> 01:08:54,200 Speaker 3: never pops, we'll see. I think the whole world's gonna 1433 01:08:54,200 --> 01:08:56,880 Speaker 3: be in Georgia. I think that we'll eventually get a seven, 1434 01:08:57,439 --> 01:08:59,920 Speaker 3: and I'm buying Ohio State. There my hot take on 1435 01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:02,800 Speaker 3: both of these college football And by the way, you 1436 01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:04,560 Speaker 3: have two good kickers in this game, but maybe the 1437 01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:08,720 Speaker 3: familiarity for Georgia's kicker is the difference. I'm gonna say. 1438 01:09:10,320 --> 01:09:13,640 Speaker 3: I'm going to say both we've had disappointing semifinals in 1439 01:09:13,680 --> 01:09:16,280 Speaker 3: the vast I'm going to say both of these games 1440 01:09:16,320 --> 01:09:19,640 Speaker 3: are really good, and I think both I'll go on 1441 01:09:19,720 --> 01:09:22,840 Speaker 3: hot take it. Both games are decided by a field goal. 1442 01:09:24,280 --> 01:09:26,960 Speaker 5: I think what's interesting is when you say semifinals have 1443 01:09:27,000 --> 01:09:30,280 Speaker 5: been disappointing. I think the spread has played a role 1444 01:09:30,920 --> 01:09:32,920 Speaker 5: twice in the history of the college football playoffs and 1445 01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:35,080 Speaker 5: the semi finals. So like, if you if you play 1446 01:09:35,120 --> 01:09:37,719 Speaker 5: Ohio State, of course grab the seven, but you should 1447 01:09:37,800 --> 01:09:41,240 Speaker 5: play some money line. If you like Michigan, don't tease 1448 01:09:41,320 --> 01:09:44,320 Speaker 5: it down to zero. If you like TCU, play some 1449 01:09:44,400 --> 01:09:46,240 Speaker 5: money line. I mean the spread has been such a 1450 01:09:46,320 --> 01:09:47,639 Speaker 5: non factor in semi finals. 1451 01:09:48,160 --> 01:09:49,679 Speaker 3: Yep, yeah, I don't. 1452 01:09:50,000 --> 01:09:50,479 Speaker 6: I don't mind. 1453 01:09:50,520 --> 01:09:53,040 Speaker 3: You're over lean that way as well. Might play some 1454 01:09:53,240 --> 01:10:01,520 Speaker 3: there and from a yeah, just from a a matchup perspective, 1455 01:10:01,520 --> 01:10:03,559 Speaker 3: And then I also think I agree. I think Day's 1456 01:10:03,560 --> 01:10:05,960 Speaker 3: going to be super aggressive, which is good here, and 1457 01:10:06,880 --> 01:10:09,760 Speaker 3: Ohio State can go in here playing loose. They have 1458 01:10:09,920 --> 01:10:12,639 Speaker 3: no pressure on them, nothing to lose, which I think 1459 01:10:12,720 --> 01:10:15,639 Speaker 3: benefits them in a high pressure game like this. Georgie 1460 01:10:15,720 --> 01:10:19,600 Speaker 3: is gonna be ready. I think that Georgia pulls this 1461 01:10:19,720 --> 01:10:21,880 Speaker 3: out by a field goal. That's my prediction. But I'm 1462 01:10:22,320 --> 01:10:26,759 Speaker 3: happily taking the seven if it gets there. If it doesn't, 1463 01:10:26,800 --> 01:10:28,280 Speaker 3: I'll six and a half or if I can buy 1464 01:10:28,320 --> 01:10:30,200 Speaker 3: a cheap seven. But I like Ohio State here. Think 1465 01:10:30,240 --> 01:10:33,519 Speaker 3: the lines inflated because of what everyone saw in that 1466 01:10:33,800 --> 01:10:37,240 Speaker 3: Ohio State Michigan game. So I think the final squoz 1467 01:10:37,240 --> 01:10:37,720 Speaker 3: have been this lead. 1468 01:10:37,720 --> 01:10:40,080 Speaker 5: Who again, I'm completely with you on Ohio State. I'll 1469 01:10:40,080 --> 01:10:42,000 Speaker 5: buy it at seven. Also, there's some soft shops out 1470 01:10:42,040 --> 01:10:42,880 Speaker 5: there that are sitting on it. 1471 01:10:42,960 --> 01:10:43,080 Speaker 2: Now. 1472 01:10:43,080 --> 01:10:45,760 Speaker 5: If you want to hit your you want to hit 1473 01:10:45,800 --> 01:10:47,680 Speaker 5: the maximumit bet there at a couple of times. But 1474 01:10:48,720 --> 01:10:51,040 Speaker 5: I just for the pure entertainment of Ohio State and 1475 01:10:51,080 --> 01:10:53,720 Speaker 5: Michigan meeting in the National Championship Game, so far, a 1476 01:10:53,760 --> 01:10:55,880 Speaker 5: seat in SOFI is going to run like ten thousand dollars. 1477 01:10:56,160 --> 01:10:58,000 Speaker 5: I mean, it's going to be the most ridiculous. If 1478 01:10:58,040 --> 01:11:00,679 Speaker 5: that's what happens, college footballs gonna get a treat. 1479 01:11:01,280 --> 01:11:06,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, I mean Georgia Michigan too would be. 1480 01:11:07,240 --> 01:11:07,879 Speaker 6: At the rematch. 1481 01:11:08,000 --> 01:11:10,120 Speaker 5: And when I said it's funny, as I said that 1482 01:11:10,560 --> 01:11:12,360 Speaker 5: Ohio State does not want to play Georgia in a 1483 01:11:12,400 --> 01:11:14,439 Speaker 5: phone booth, you want to talk about two phone booth teams, 1484 01:11:14,479 --> 01:11:17,400 Speaker 5: we get a Michigan Georgia National Championship game, just as 1485 01:11:17,600 --> 01:11:18,320 Speaker 5: we got outdoors. 1486 01:11:20,080 --> 01:11:22,720 Speaker 3: All right for you out of here, one final order 1487 01:11:22,720 --> 01:11:25,080 Speaker 3: of business and by the way, big bets on campus 1488 01:11:25,200 --> 01:11:30,760 Speaker 3: Live Saturday morning, we will have our final show of 1489 01:11:30,960 --> 01:11:33,519 Speaker 3: this Seaton actually might have a national champions but probably not, 1490 01:11:33,640 --> 01:11:35,920 Speaker 3: I don't know, but just regardless, well of a show 1491 01:11:36,080 --> 01:11:38,920 Speaker 3: on Saturday morning going over the Collge football playoff and 1492 01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:42,760 Speaker 3: the rest of the balls. But let's uh, let's give 1493 01:11:42,760 --> 01:11:45,559 Speaker 3: out our best bets from dispatch of boles nine bowls. 1494 01:11:46,040 --> 01:11:48,880 Speaker 3: I'm gonna go. I mean I can't. I can't go 1495 01:11:48,920 --> 01:11:50,479 Speaker 3: another way than tou lane. I have to go too 1496 01:11:50,520 --> 01:11:54,120 Speaker 3: lane here, my motivation monster coming in. I think they're 1497 01:11:54,120 --> 01:11:57,000 Speaker 3: gonna be a run all over USC. You see missing 1498 01:11:57,080 --> 01:12:02,400 Speaker 3: some key offensive linemen, turnover regression looms, Green Wave cover again, Rollwave. 1499 01:12:02,479 --> 01:12:04,160 Speaker 3: Let's go. Be's bet for you. 1500 01:12:05,520 --> 01:12:07,400 Speaker 5: It's a tie between two of them, either the LSU 1501 01:12:07,479 --> 01:12:10,040 Speaker 5: first half or I'm gonna go with Penn State. I 1502 01:12:10,120 --> 01:12:12,120 Speaker 5: love Penn State. Here, I'll take the points of two 1503 01:12:12,160 --> 01:12:13,439 Speaker 5: and a half. I would take a money line in 1504 01:12:13,479 --> 01:12:15,479 Speaker 5: the Rose Bowl again. I think this comes down to 1505 01:12:15,600 --> 01:12:19,080 Speaker 5: quarterback execution, Cam Rising and missing Dalton Kincaid. He has 1506 01:12:19,160 --> 01:12:21,920 Speaker 5: been the cornerstone of that offense. And you know, everything 1507 01:12:21,960 --> 01:12:25,559 Speaker 5: that Utah runs is in twelve, thirteen, fourteen packages where 1508 01:12:25,560 --> 01:12:27,160 Speaker 5: they rely on tight ends and now they're not going 1509 01:12:27,200 --> 01:12:29,120 Speaker 5: to have that. And Cam Rising in these big games 1510 01:12:29,160 --> 01:12:33,360 Speaker 5: has been turnover prone against USC, against Florida, and then 1511 01:12:33,400 --> 01:12:35,639 Speaker 5: when you turn over to you know the Penn State 1512 01:12:35,760 --> 01:12:38,000 Speaker 5: side they are They've been a lead on defense, especially 1513 01:12:38,000 --> 01:12:39,920 Speaker 5: in knocking passes down. They're the best in the nation. 1514 01:12:40,360 --> 01:12:43,080 Speaker 5: But really, the key to Sean Clifford his entire career 1515 01:12:43,600 --> 01:12:46,040 Speaker 5: has been if he has doesn't have pressure on him, 1516 01:12:46,040 --> 01:12:48,800 Speaker 5: he's able to execute. Utah does not get pressure on 1517 01:12:48,920 --> 01:12:51,960 Speaker 5: quarterbacks whatsoever unless they bring extra defenders, and if they 1518 01:12:52,080 --> 01:12:54,840 Speaker 5: bring six or seven, Sean Clifford should be able to 1519 01:12:55,200 --> 01:12:56,920 Speaker 5: sniff that out and get the ball off. So I 1520 01:12:57,080 --> 01:12:59,760 Speaker 5: like Penn State here in the Rose Bowl sending Utah 1521 01:12:59,800 --> 01:13:02,519 Speaker 5: to the second straight consecutive loss in the Rose. 1522 01:13:02,360 --> 01:13:07,439 Speaker 3: Bawl, going against all your children this podcast TCU and Utah. 1523 01:13:08,800 --> 01:13:11,920 Speaker 3: But yeah, we'll play for dinner and TCU Michigan looking 1524 01:13:11,960 --> 01:13:14,160 Speaker 3: forward to some battles we agree on some others. Let's 1525 01:13:14,640 --> 01:13:21,200 Speaker 3: close the Bowl season strong. As I mentioned before, one 1526 01:13:21,320 --> 01:13:24,719 Speaker 3: final episode next week National Championship Preview, Haiti Smith Award 1527 01:13:24,760 --> 01:13:28,320 Speaker 3: for Call of the Year Gambling Heisman. Appreciate all of 1528 01:13:28,360 --> 01:13:30,160 Speaker 3: you guys. We'll do some giveaways too to make sure 1529 01:13:30,200 --> 01:13:32,120 Speaker 3: you leave a five star review. Final ones of this 1530 01:13:32,160 --> 01:13:34,240 Speaker 3: season always help us out. We'll do some free giveaways. 1531 01:13:34,600 --> 01:13:37,439 Speaker 3: Say whatever you want, state your case on if you 1532 01:13:37,520 --> 01:13:41,200 Speaker 3: want to go TCU or Michigan. We'd appreciate all you 1533 01:13:41,200 --> 01:13:43,160 Speaker 3: guys listen and appreciate all the audio and video people 1534 01:13:43,200 --> 01:13:45,600 Speaker 3: on the back end. Thanks to Colin as always for 1535 01:13:45,720 --> 01:13:48,560 Speaker 3: joining me. It's been a healthy year. Let's close it 1536 01:13:48,600 --> 01:13:51,800 Speaker 3: out strong. We will see you Saturday morning for Big 1537 01:13:51,840 --> 01:13:56,160 Speaker 3: betsal Canpabis Live and then next week for our final episode. 1538 01:13:56,439 --> 01:13:58,760 Speaker 3: Go luck on all of your wagers. We'll catch you 1539 01:13:58,760 --> 01:14:00,240 Speaker 3: all the way to cheers out. 1540 01:14:00,680 --> 01:14:03,360 Speaker 2: It's the most squanderful time. 1541 01:14:04,200 --> 01:14:10,840 Speaker 4: It's the most squanericle time, call the most squanderical time. 1542 01:14:12,960 --> 01:14:13,559 Speaker 3: Of The. 1543 01:14:21,479 --> 01:14:25,519 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 1544 01:14:25,600 --> 01:14:28,080 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 1545 01:14:28,080 --> 01:14:30,879 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler