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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: Let's get to the show.

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Speaker 4: All right, good morning, and welcome to Counterpoints, where you

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Speaker 4: got a big Super Tuesday show.

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Speaker 5: We're going to be joined by some hot shot hot

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Speaker 5: shot YouTubers in a second.

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Speaker 4: We're going to talk, but let's talk about State of

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Speaker 4: Union first.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, the State of the Union. Speaking of those hot

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Speaker 6: shot YouTubers, yes, they're joining us for the Super Tuesday breakdown.

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Speaker 6: But Sager, Crystal, Ryan and myself we'll be here for

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Speaker 6: the State of the Union pre show starting tomorrow at

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Speaker 6: eight thirty pm, then live. Sager's not happy about the

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Speaker 6: starting at ten pm, way past this bedtime to take

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Speaker 6: questions from premium subscribers, so make sure or you stay

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Speaker 6: tuned for that. Get a premium subscription if you want

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Speaker 6: to watch. On that note, it.

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Speaker 5: Basically a private screening after the State of the Union. Yes,

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Speaker 5: we can Saga Crystal manual.

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Speaker 6: So that we can translate by Breakingpoints dot Com. Go

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Speaker 6: there now, Breakingpoints dot Com. Let's bring those hot new

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Speaker 6: YouTubers in. Sager and Crystal, thank you so much for

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Speaker 6: joining us for Super Tuesday show.

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Speaker 7: Thank you, Thank you, guys.

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Speaker 2: I can't tell you how nice it is not to

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Speaker 2: have to set up the show myself.

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Speaker 4: This is great.

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Speaker 6: I can't tell you how nice it is not to

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Speaker 6: have someone shouting good morning at.

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Speaker 1: By the way, for the record, ten pm. Also way

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Speaker 1: past my bedtime. I'm just as much of a whimp

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Speaker 1: about it as is.

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Speaker 2: You guys are between people, guys between the bedtime and

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Speaker 2: daylight savings.

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Speaker 3: This is just like my Vietnam.

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Speaker 5: But these are the sacrifices that you're willing to make

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Speaker 5: for the viewers, and we deeply appreciate it. After Crystal

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Speaker 5: and Saga leave, we're going to talk about the cartoon

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Speaker 5: Bill and Victoria Newland giving it a rest, which suggests

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Speaker 5: probably a big strategic change Ukraine policy is on the horizon.

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Speaker 5: The other cartoon villain, Kirsten Sama, also leaving, like the

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Speaker 5: world desperately needed some good news, and both of these

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Speaker 5: women gave us some of that, so we really appreciate that.

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Speaker 5: And of course we'll have some updates on the latest

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Speaker 5: in the war in Gaza.

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Speaker 6: So I don't want to keep going on the cartoon

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Speaker 6: villain trend, but I will because the big news this

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Speaker 6: morning is that Nicki Haley has dropped out of the

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Speaker 6: presidential race after getting clabberd clabberd in every state with

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Speaker 6: the exception of Ryan's favorite state, Vermont yesterday by double digits.

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Speaker 6: Nicki Haley ended up winning Vermont with about its three

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Speaker 6: point margins so far as we can tell, but in

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Speaker 6: other states, I think the closest was Utah, and she

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Speaker 6: lost to Utah by eighteen points. So if you're watching,

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Speaker 6: you can see the delegate count here. Overall, nine hundred

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Speaker 6: and ninety five delegates for Donald Trump, nine eighty nine

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Speaker 6: delegates for Nicki Haley. Trump needs twelve hundred, so actually

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Speaker 6: twelve hundred and fifteen to win the nomination. Precisely, he's

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Speaker 6: already at nine hundred and ninety five, and he has

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Speaker 6: healthy leads basically in most of the polls across the country.

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Speaker 6: On this one, I'll start with you Sagar reaction to

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Speaker 6: your favorite, your personal hero, Nicki Haley dropping out of

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Speaker 6: the race. And I'll say she had a lot of money.

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Speaker 6: She was dropping some money, some donors were dropping her,

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Speaker 6: but she could have kept going. So just your thoughts

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Speaker 6: on her dropping out, I mean.

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Speaker 3: It's just about the credible case.

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Speaker 2: It's been a long time coming now for Nicki Haley

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Speaker 2: dropping out. I guess it is a tough day for

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Speaker 2: the brown ceiling here of Indian American GOP politicians who.

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Speaker 3: Are running out.

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Speaker 2: But overall, I think whenever we look at her candidacy,

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Speaker 2: we're seeing a couple of things.

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Speaker 3: I will give her at least some credit.

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Speaker 2: As low as I am, she did win, you know,

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Speaker 2: twenty thirty percent of the vote in a lot of

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Speaker 2: the primaries that happened last night. She certainly did get

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Speaker 2: the DC primary, I guess, and she proved her constituency.

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Speaker 2: And I think some of the themes that we'll be

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Speaker 2: talking about today have less to do with the Nicki

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Speaker 2: Haley candidacy than what that type of voter who even

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Speaker 2: craves something like that, what are they going to do

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Speaker 2: in November. So I think that's the big question on

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Speaker 2: the Republican side, And I think the theme of today's

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Speaker 2: show is that both of these candidates have critical parts

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Speaker 2: of their coalition where there are big question marks as

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Speaker 2: to what they're actually going to do whenever it does

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Speaker 2: come to the general election.

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Speaker 6: Crystal, on that note, we can put a two up

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Speaker 6: on the screen. This is the margin in Vermont, so

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Speaker 6: everyone can see exactly how well nik they did in Vermont.

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Speaker 6: So she prevents Trump from getting that fifty state sweep,

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Speaker 6: just barely. But Crystal, it is true. Soccer is absolutely

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Speaker 6: right that Nicki Haley came away in some of these states.

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Speaker 6: She spent a lot of money, outspent a lot of

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Speaker 6: her competition along the way, but she did come around

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Speaker 6: thirty to forty percent in some of these contests, even

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Speaker 6: in swing states, critical states like a South Carolina, something

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Speaker 6: to that effect. So whether or not she endorses Trump

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Speaker 6: is a huge question. What do you expect to see

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Speaker 6: from Niki Haley on that front?

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Speaker 1: Well, let me say first all that I do want

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Speaker 1: to give credit where credit is due. At the beginning

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Speaker 1: of this contest, if you had told me Nikki Haley

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Speaker 1: would be the last person standing with Trump, if you

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Speaker 1: told me she was gonna win a single state in

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Speaker 1: the country, I would have said not a chance. So

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Speaker 1: in a sense, I do think she was sort of vindicated.

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Speaker 1: But her decision to stay in this long was kind

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Speaker 1: of vindicated by the fact that she did win a state,

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Speaker 1: she did perform reasonably well in some of these other

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Speaker 1: states that went on Super Tuesday. It makes the overall

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Speaker 1: performance a little bit less embarrassing, a little bit less humiliating.

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Speaker 1: Prove the point that there is some constituency for her.

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Speaker 1: We know that is not a majority constituency in the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party.

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Speaker 7: It's largely like highly educated people.

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Speaker 1: Who kind of like Joe Biden and are you very

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Speaker 1: possibly going to vote for him in the fall. But

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Speaker 1: you know, she demonstrated there was something there in terms

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Speaker 1: of her pitch, and so she did outperform what I

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Speaker 1: expected of her, for whatever that is worth. In terms

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Speaker 1: of her dropout speech today, the reporting is she is

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Speaker 1: not gonna she is not going to endorse tr She's

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Speaker 1: saying he needs to basically win over independence and moderates

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Speaker 1: like herself who were backing her. I also want to say,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think the political framing of Nicky Haley

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Speaker 1: really demonstrates some of the oddities and perversions of the

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Speaker 1: Trump era that she's considered the quote unquote moderate, when

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Speaker 1: if you just look at the ideology, you know, head

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Speaker 1: to head, you cannot put her in any sort of

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Speaker 1: moderate ideological lane. But the one thing that really came

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Speaker 1: out in all of the exit polling in every single

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Speaker 1: state that's voted so far is actually the biggest dividing

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Speaker 1: line in the Republican Party is whether or not they

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Speaker 1: bought him to stop the steal, you know, the nicky

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Speaker 1: Haley voters. Overwhelmingly she won people who said, you know what,

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden actually won Overwhelmingly. Donald Trump wins people who say, no,

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Speaker 1: it was you know, it was rigged, stop the steal, etcetera, etcetera.

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Speaker 7: So Trump really.

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Speaker 1: Did successfully make that the litmus test and the dividing

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Speaker 1: line in the Republican Party. And you know, if you

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Speaker 1: were on the wrong side of that question, then you

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Speaker 1: basically had no hope in this primary.

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Speaker 5: And by the way, one interesting point, I think you're

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Speaker 5: going to end up having sixty or seventy thousand voters

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Speaker 5: in Vermont total deciding this Republican primary, and Vermont is

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Speaker 5: an open primary state. There's a very close election, Like

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Speaker 5: the chance that a bunch of Democrats.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 5: I'm not saying by any means a majority, but a

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Speaker 5: non trivial number of Democrats I think showed up and

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Speaker 5: we're like, what's the point of voting in the Democratic primary?

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Speaker 5: I'm going to jump in here and vote against and

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Speaker 5: vote against Trump. I think a lot of Republicans actually

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Speaker 5: did that in West Virginia in twenty sixteen, for instance,

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Speaker 5: and went in and voted for Bernie against Hillary Clinton.

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Speaker 4: But we do have Trump's wh moved to that.

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Speaker 5: We knew Trump's speech last night, in which he did

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Speaker 5: not mention Nicki Haley just went right at Joe Biden.

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Speaker 4: Let's play some Trump here.

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Speaker 8: November fifth is going to go down as the single

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Speaker 8: most important day in the history.

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Speaker 9: Of our country.

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Speaker 8: We're going to take it and we're going to make

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Speaker 8: it like it should be respected. Right now, we're not

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Speaker 8: respected right now. Our country is known as a joke.

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Speaker 8: It's a joke. Other leaders who I speak to, other

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Speaker 8: leaders can't believe what happened to us, because three years

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Speaker 8: ago we were the most respected country anywhere in the

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Speaker 8: world by far. We were doing things that nobody could believe.

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Speaker 8: China was paying us billions and billions of dollars in

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Speaker 8: twenty five years. I paid us nothing, zero, not ten cents.

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Speaker 8: I was getting billions of dollars. And they were happy

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Speaker 8: about it, as happy as you can be. Of course,

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Speaker 8: maybe there's reasons for things having happened, but they were not.

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Speaker 8: They were not so happy with certain things. I guess

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Speaker 8: based on things that took place, but they were. We

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Speaker 8: were getting along with everybody. We were getting along, and

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Speaker 8: we were respected by everybody, and.

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Speaker 9: We had no wars.

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Speaker 8: Remember when I had the debate with Hillary Clinton, she said,

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Speaker 8: look look at him, look at that personality. He's going

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Speaker 8: to cause wars, wars. I said, no, my personality is

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Speaker 8: going to keep us out of wars.

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Speaker 9: And that's what happened.

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Speaker 6: So Ryan is losing it. He started riffing at one

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Speaker 6: point about the military's goggles. I don't know if anyone

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Speaker 6: else gone.

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Speaker 4: And the gold just selling gold along the side, just

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Speaker 4: so perfect.

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Speaker 3: That's great. No, that's Republican Party.

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Speaker 6: So there's a lot of sort of.

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Speaker 2: Well, I just think, you know, this is the frame.

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Speaker 2: It's Trump is the cult of personality. I want to

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Speaker 2: pick up on where Crystal left off. He has successfully

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Speaker 2: I meant talked about this ad nauseum during the Trump

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Speaker 2: era of people want to go back and watch. He

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Speaker 2: successfully defined MAGA as a complete litms test on him

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Speaker 2: and him alone, on impeachment, on stop the steal, on

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Speaker 2: allegiance to him as a party figure, instead of really

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Speaker 2: defining it along any sort of policy line. Actually, you

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Speaker 2: can see a lot of that in some of the

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Speaker 2: primary results that happened last night, because remember, it wasn't

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Speaker 2: just what was going on with the presidential election in

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Speaker 2: down in Texas. We saw several judges, for example, face

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Speaker 2: serious problems in their primaries who had ruled against Ken

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Speaker 2: Paxton for example, on election lawsuits. That actually shows me

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Speaker 2: that it's not just the Trump top line, you know,

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Speaker 2: versus him and Nikki Haley.

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Speaker 3: It's his successful.

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Speaker 2: Takeover and whenever he does push certain things like stop

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Speaker 2: the Steal, he says, this is the dividing line. Voters

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Speaker 2: are not willing to just come out for him. They're

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Speaker 2: also willing to come out for anybody who appeared to

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Speaker 2: have wronged him. And then, look, these are not national races,

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Speaker 2: you know, per se. But the Texas GOP successfully was

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Speaker 2: able to argue that any judge, even if their typical

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Speaker 2: and cut Bush style Republicans that ruled to limit the

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Speaker 2: ability of Ken Paxton to try and to you know,

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Speaker 2: whatever whatever he was doing with the twenty twenty election,

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Speaker 2: that that was enough in order to make sure that

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Speaker 2: they were to face challenges. And we saw that in

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Speaker 2: some of the other primary challenges all really across the

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Speaker 2: entire country last night for the specific type of America first,

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Speaker 2: you know, as in Trump type person blowing it out,

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Speaker 2: and then a more traditional type like Dan Crenshaw. I

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Speaker 2: believe you highlighted this Emily, you know, not doing nearly

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Speaker 2: as well as you did last time around.

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Speaker 6: His margin is down by quite a bit actually, and

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Speaker 6: this is probably a good point to put these Laddin

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Speaker 6: County results up on the screen, So control room, I'm

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Speaker 6: going to go and start with a five here. Lodden County,

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Speaker 6: Virginia was hyped in the media. This is from by

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Speaker 6: the way, if you're looking at this, this is the

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Speaker 6: results from twenty sixteen. Lodden County is really hyped by

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Speaker 6: the media as one of the key swing counties, as

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Speaker 6: sort of a Bellweather county that you can take a

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Speaker 6: look at here for how the mood Is and Marco

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Speaker 6: Rubio cleaned up pretty handily. Back in twenty sixteen, forty

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Speaker 6: percent of the vote. Ted Cruz himself had about fifteen

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Speaker 6: percent of the vote. Even John kase It got about

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Speaker 6: eleven percent of the vote and Trump was only at

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Speaker 6: twenty eight percent of the vote vote back then. Now,

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Speaker 6: contrast that, I don't know if we have this image.

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Speaker 6: We can put it up if we do. But contrast

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Speaker 6: that with what happened last night twenty twenty four. Trump

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Speaker 6: won Louden County really clearly, very wealthy county, and it's

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Speaker 6: outside of Washington, d C. Northern Virginia, so you wouldn't

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Speaker 6: necessarily you would think, actually, Nikki Haley, with all the

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Speaker 6: defense contractors out there, as Trump said he didn't start

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Speaker 6: any new wars, that Nicki Haley might be really popular

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Speaker 6: in loud In County. She wasn't. Even though she had

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Speaker 6: been able to pick up big chunks of the vote,

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Speaker 6: it just hasn't been quite enough. There's something about Trump

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Speaker 6: Crystal that Republican voters will not shake. And maybe it's

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Speaker 6: to Soccer's point, it does remind me a little bit

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Speaker 6: of the Tea Party years. It's sort of this binary

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Speaker 6: establishment and anti establishment. And if you're someone who's uncomfortable

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Speaker 6: with the anti establishment, maybe you gravitate towards Nicki Haley.

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Speaker 6: But if you're uncomfortable with the establishment, even if Trump

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Speaker 6: says the craziest thing, shoot someone on Fifth Avenue, you

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Speaker 6: still prefer him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, just to reflect specifically on the Lodden

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Speaker 1: County results, some of those people who voted.

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Speaker 7: For Marca Ruby or John Kasik, they're.

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Speaker 1: Just Democrats now right, They're not voting in a Republican primary.

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Speaker 1: So you can't necessarily say, like Nicki Haley underperform what

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Speaker 1: they did, because probably a lot of those people that

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Speaker 1: voted for Marca Ruby were like showing up to you know,

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Speaker 1: stay strong for Joe Biden last night in Louden County

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Speaker 1: or whatever. Actually, Mary and Williamson, if memory survice, did

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Speaker 1: quite well in Louden County last night for whatever reason.

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Speaker 1: But you know, the other thing about the Trump domination

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Speaker 1: of the Republican Party is, obviously it works out well

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Speaker 1: for Trump, just like the Obama domination the Democratic Party

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Speaker 1: that worked out very well for Barack Obama. It doesn't

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Speaker 1: work out very well for the rest of the Republican

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Speaker 1: Party because the things that Donald Trump can get away

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Speaker 1: with the shooting someone on Fifth Avenue, or whatever wacky

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Speaker 1: crap comes out of his mouth or his legal problems

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Speaker 1: or whatever other candidates can't get away with.

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Speaker 7: And so that's a big part.

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Speaker 1: Of the story of why twenty twenty two was such

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Speaker 1: an underperformance for Republicans, because, Yeah, a bunch of these

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Speaker 1: like Trump fringe weirdos who were absolutely repellent to just

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Speaker 1: normal people won the primary and then lo and behold,

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Speaker 1: got blown out in a state like Pennsylvania where they're

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Speaker 1: losing by double digits when they should have, you know,

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Speaker 1: basically been a lock to win in that year. And

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Speaker 1: that's both the governor's level and you know with uh

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Speaker 1: Fetterman and os.

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Speaker 7: Which is that's a whole other story.

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Speaker 1: But in North Carolina is an example of this. Last night,

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Speaker 1: the Republican nominee for governor there is apparently really wacky.

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Speaker 1: You know, I haven't looked into all of these statements,

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Speaker 1: but people are circulating online all kinds of things that

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Speaker 1: you've said that are really out there. In North Carolina.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's a state where Republicans should easily win

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Speaker 1: the governorship, but at the state level they will voters

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Speaker 1: will pick a Democrat, you know, especially when you're talking

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Speaker 1: about a state race and not a federal race, so

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Speaker 1: they very likely handed Democrats, you know, potential victory in

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Speaker 1: that state when that was completely unnecessary because of how

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Speaker 1: fringe some of these candidates have become, you know, following

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Speaker 1: in the quote unquote anti establishment mold of Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: which I you know at this point that framing, to

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Speaker 1: me is not really accurate, given this is the guy

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Speaker 1: who served the establishment quite handily when he was in office.

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Speaker 7: You could see a lot of Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: You've seen people like Jamie Diamond and others saying like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it wouldn't be so bad to have him again, sort

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Speaker 1: of reconciling themselves to him. The Davos said, perfectly fine

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Speaker 1: with another Trump presidency. So the vibe is anti establishment,

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Speaker 1: the reality is very different.

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Speaker 6: Let's get video because for the control room, just the

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Speaker 6: heads up, I'm gonna do a four and a nine here,

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Speaker 6: because these are two videos that Nikki Haley got of

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Speaker 6: Nikki Haley. Nikkoie was out there talking to voters, filming herself.

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Speaker 6: No MSNBC got of Nicki Haley voters, and these are

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Speaker 6: somewhat amusing clips. Let's start with a four. This is

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Speaker 6: actually a Trump voter, Republican voter, Let's roll.

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Speaker 10: That Nikki Haley is irrelevant?

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Speaker 11: Why irrelevant?

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Speaker 10: Because it's obvious that she's just there representing the rhino

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Speaker 10: part of the Republican Party and she has no chance

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Speaker 10: and she knows it, and everyone knows it.

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Speaker 11: It's self evident. Did you vote for Trump in twenty twenty?

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Speaker 1: I did it?

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Speaker 11: And what made you switch from Trump to Nicki Haley?

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Speaker 11: The man is a lunatic and I think he's terrible

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Speaker 11: for the country. What are you thinking about when you

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Speaker 11: say that? Just that he lies.

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Speaker 12: He's bankrupted millions of businesses and people, and I don't

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Speaker 12: see anything good about him.

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Speaker 11: Let me ask, if Donald Trump is the nominee in November,

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Speaker 11: do you support Joe Biden over Donald Trump? No, what

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Speaker 11: do you do?

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Speaker 8: I don't know.

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Speaker 11: It will be a hard decision too.

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Speaker 6: North Carolina voters, there, Ryan, what do you make of it?

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Speaker 4: We didn't do.

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Speaker 5: The one who told Sanana the reason he isn't going

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Speaker 5: to vote for Nicki Haley is because she doesn't have

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Speaker 5: balls to scratch, which is apparently a prerequisite for being

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Speaker 5: a good president. According to according to this guy, a

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Speaker 5: good female president, any president, it's a universal requirement.

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Speaker 6: So yeah, we have more on this. So if we

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Speaker 6: put a seven up on the screen, there's some really

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Speaker 6: interesting exit poll results. This is California. Will you vote

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Speaker 6: for the Republican nominee regardless of who it is? Trump

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Speaker 6: voters answered yes seventy one percent, twenty two percent said no.

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Speaker 6: Haley voters only twenty six percent said yes, sixty nine

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Speaker 6: percent said no. And then we can go to a

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Speaker 6: eight as well for some more exit polling results. This

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Speaker 6: is North Carolina Republican primary voters. Hailey voters. Biden job

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Speaker 6: approval forty eight forty eight percent of Nikki Haley voters

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Speaker 6: North Carolina approve of Joe Biden, fifty two percent disapproved.

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Speaker 6: Now you go to Trump voters two percent approve of

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Speaker 6: Joe Biden, ninety six percent disapprove. I'd love to know, Sager,

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Speaker 6: who those two percent of approving voters are.

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Speaker 3: Hey, they exist.

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Speaker 2: You know, we covered actually in our show yesterday that

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Speaker 2: ten percent or so of Biden voters are actually going

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Speaker 2: to be voting for Trump this time around, if we

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Speaker 2: look at some of the swing data that Nate Silver

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Speaker 2: dug into. But you know, look, I think again, the

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Speaker 2: theme of our show for today and for next with

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Speaker 2: the Democratic block, is that there are parts of these

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Speaker 2: coalitions where they're genuinely up for grabs across either from

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Speaker 2: the other or in terms of taking votes away. I

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Speaker 2: would also be remiss if I didn't say that RFK

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Speaker 2: Junior appears to have qualified for the ballot in Nevada

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Speaker 2: or he at least attained enough signatures yesterday. So that's

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Speaker 2: another critical battleground state that kind of throws everything into

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Speaker 2: whack gears. So what are these people going to do

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Speaker 2: or are they going to come out to vote for Biden?

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Speaker 2: That lady, for example, she's like, I don't know, it's

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Speaker 2: going to be a hard decision.

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Speaker 3: She may just not vote.

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Speaker 2: A lot of people don't vote actually, or they just

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Speaker 2: don't vote at the top of the ticket.

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Speaker 3: They could go third party.

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Speaker 2: So there's a significant amount of chaos factor that I

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Speaker 2: think goes into this election.

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Speaker 3: And I've been continuing.

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Speaker 2: I've been doing a lot more research on the nineteen

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Speaker 2: ninety two presidential election.

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Speaker 3: Just to look at how things worked out. Well, you

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Speaker 3: have to write, you.

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Speaker 2: Know, yesterday by my shouted out the ninety two Bill

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Speaker 2: Clinton nominee speech.

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Speaker 3: It's on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: I've been going back and watching some of the debates

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Speaker 2: with Ross Perro, who, by the way.

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Speaker 3: Was unfairly maligned at the time.

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Speaker 2: But the point is is that Bill Clinton only won

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Speaker 2: the popular vote some forty two percent. He did won

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Speaker 2: some three hundred votes three hundred some electrical College votes,

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Speaker 2: but the puro candidacy and also the ability to strip

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Speaker 2: some of it away from HW Bush was critical actually

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Speaker 2: in getting Clinton across the finish line. So I mean

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Speaker 2: increasingly I am seeing enough chaos in there that you

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Speaker 2: could see either of these president or either of these candidates,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump or Joe Biden, actually win the electoral College

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Speaker 2: and the presidential election with not even close to like

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Speaker 2: a majority of the overall popular vote, because you have

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Speaker 2: so many of these different constituencies that are upward grabs,

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Speaker 2: and you have multitudes of third party candidacies and record

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Speaker 2: high dissatisfaction with both of these incumbents. So it's a

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Speaker 2: very very different dynamic than twenty twenty.

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Speaker 5: And one of the key differences you just hit on it,

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Speaker 5: it's the level of factions dissatisfaction. So in nineteen ninety two,

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Speaker 5: what's interesting is that I think the public kind of was.

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Speaker 4: Okay with George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

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Speaker 5: Like the people who voted for Ross Purou, they didn't

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Speaker 5: like the syst they didn't trust the whole thing. They

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Speaker 5: thought the country was going off the rails. But personally

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Speaker 5: when it came to Bush and Clinton, they're like, I mean,

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Speaker 5: they didn't think that they were going to destroy the country,

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Speaker 5: that their election to the White House would be the

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Speaker 5: end of the American experiment. Like, none of them really

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Speaker 5: thought that. Today, you have significant portions of both electorates

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Speaker 5: that think if the other person wins, it's the end

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Speaker 5: of the world. And I don't know what that does

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Speaker 5: to third party voting, Like it has some I think

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Speaker 5: influence on how people think about third parties, but I'm

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Speaker 5: not quite sure yet how that works out.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, that's basically what you just lay down is

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Speaker 1: what the Biden campaign in particular is counting on. They're

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Speaker 1: hoping that that revulsion and that sense of existentialism. I mean,

439
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 1: this is what Biden and were telling the New Yorker

440
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:49,920
Speaker 1: in that interview that got a lot of attention, and

441
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 1: basically like, yeah, they're mad. Now, they'll come around when

442
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 1: they really think about Donald Trump being back in office,

443
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 1: and maybe and certainly for a large proportion of the

444
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 1: elector and the Democratic base.

445
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 7: That's certainly true.

446
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 1: I'm just not sure that it holds as strongly as

447
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,719
Speaker 1: it did in twenty twenty, as or even as strongly

448
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 1: as in twenty sixteen, when it was a real question

449
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 1: mark of what a Trump presidency would even look like,

450
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 1: and it was a little, you know, potentially more terrifying

451
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 1: because it was just completely unknown. Now you have people like, well,

452
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 1: it wasn't grat but we got through four years, so

453
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 1: maybe this maybe this.

454
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 7: World isn't literally going to end.

455
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 13: You know.

456
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,199
Speaker 1: I wanted to just react to you because it's a

457
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 1: big media conversation, understandably so about Nicki Haley voters saying

458
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 1: they're not necessarily.

459
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 7: Going to vote for Donald Trump in the fall.

460
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 1: I think the fact that you have such high approval

461
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 1: rating for Joe Biden among Nicki Haley voters tells you

462
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 1: something about who her electorate actually was. Like who was

463
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 1: voting for Nicki Haley? And I think it was mostly

464
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:55,159
Speaker 1: not Republicans, even the independents who voted for her. There

465
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 1: are a lot of people call themselves independence, but really

466
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 1: when it comes down to it, they're either every election

467
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 1: voting d or every election voting r and since there

468
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 1: wasn't much of a contest on the Democratic side, I

469
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 1: do think you had overwhelmingly those types of independence saying well,

470
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:12,719
Speaker 1: you know, I really think Trump's so maniac, So let

471
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 1: me cross over and try to boost my girl Dicky

472
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,159
Speaker 1: for the primary. And you know, at the end of

473
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 1: the day, I'm probably coming back home to Joe Biden.

474
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 1: So you know, I think it's a warning sign. I

475
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 1: think it's something to pay attention to. But my guess

476
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: is the you know, suburban college educated people who were

477
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 1: going to be horrified by Trump and vote for Democrats

478
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 1: because of it, Like that ship has probably already sailed.

479
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 1: We've probably already seen that realignment occur over the years

480
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,479
Speaker 1: that he has been in public office.

481
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 3: Totally agree, Crystal.

482
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 6: And let's just wrap up this block by noting that

483
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 6: turnout was down. I mean, that's extremely important to all

484
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,199
Speaker 6: of this, to the nineteen ninety two factor and to

485
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,239
Speaker 6: the nineteen ninety two factor as well. This is our

486
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,239
Speaker 6: transition to our next block, or we're going to talk

487
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 6: about the results in the Democratic Party primary, but that

488
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,879
Speaker 6: third arty factor is looming very large. We have no

489
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 6: idea what's going to happen. We know. No Labels has

490
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 6: said that they'll think about this after Super Tuesday. Nikki

491
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 6: Haley has said she's a conservative Republican, she's not interested

492
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 6: in the No Labels ticket. Kirsten Cinema just conspicuously dropped

493
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 6: out of her Senate race in Arizona and retired yesterday.

494
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 6: Nikkia Haley said she couldn't do No Labels because that

495
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 6: would mean running with a Democrat. Well, Kirsten Cinema is

496
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 6: an independent, so we will see where all of that goes.

497
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 6: RFK Junior still pulls enough to be more than a

498
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 6: factor than Jill Stein was in twenty sixteen, So there's

499
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 6: so much to talk about with that. Ryan, Let's talk

500
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 6: about what happened in the Democratic primary last night, because

501
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 6: some of these results were really interesting. Huge shout out

502
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 6: to American Samoa.

503
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 4: Yes, Americans.

504
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 5: Joe Biden lost American Samoa to a guy who's extraordinarily famous.

505
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 6: Here in the mainland.

506
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:59,199
Speaker 4: On the mainland, but otherwise he was embarrassed in.

507
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 5: A lot of states by the uncommitted vote basically across

508
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 5: the country. We do not have a speech to show

509
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 5: you from Joe Biden because even though he is running

510
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 5: for reelection. He did not give a super Tuesday victory speech. Instead,

511
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 5: he kind of stared blankly out at a crowd after

512
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 5: mumbling that he would get in trouble if he took questions.

513
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 5: It's almost too painful of video to even subject you

514
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 5: guys too, So we're not even not even going to

515
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 5: show it because it would that would make us complicit

516
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 5: in the elder abuse that is being dealt out to

517
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 5: Joe Biden. Not that I have any sympathy for him,

518
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 5: given you know what he's doing in Gaza right now.

519
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 4: So kind kind of guess what he has comeing to him.

520
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 5: Yet it's still kind of painful and sad to watch,

521
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 5: that's for sure, all right. So let's get to what

522
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 5: the voters are doing to him, and we start in

523
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 5: Minnesota's this put this first one up here, kind of

524
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 5: a shocking to the establishment result in Minnesota with close

525
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 5: to twenty percent of the electorate.

526
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 4: Voting uncommitted. This is a campaign that had about a

527
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 4: week to organize itself. And that's on top.

528
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 5: Of eight percent for Dean Phillips, by the way, so

529
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 5: almost thirty percent just between the two of those against Biden.

530
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 4: People were saying, so they spent about five thousand.

531
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 5: Dollars over the course of a week something like that

532
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 5: to organize this campaign. Organizers for that campaign were telling

533
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 5: me over the course of the week that they actually

534
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 5: expected to outperform Michigan because the phone banking that they

535
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,719
Speaker 5: were doing was just landing on voter after voter after

536
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 5: voter who was telling them, yeah, we're already uncommitted. Basically,

537
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 5: it was an it was organic that it spread from

538
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 5: New Hampshire over.

539
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 4: To Michigan and then into Minnesota.

540
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 5: In ilin Omar's district, which is number five in Minnesota,

541
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 5: they'll they'll win at least a delegate, they may win

542
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 5: three delegates at least across the state. That means the

543
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 5: party process in Minnesota is going to send at least

544
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 5: three people to Minnesota who will be representing kind of

545
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 5: a free Palestine.

546
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 4: It ceasefire and the war in Gaza vote.

547
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,640
Speaker 6: Huge smiling Muslim population obviously outside Minneapolis, but.

548
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 5: There was also this, you know, the correlation between age

549
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 5: and support for uncommitted was basically one to one.

550
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 4: The younger a precinct was the stronger the support was.

551
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 5: There was one precinct that had something like eighty percent

552
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:17,159
Speaker 5: for uncommitted.

553
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 4: That must be a fun neighborhood.

554
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 6: So the governor addressed this. We have a clip of that.

555
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 6: Let's roll Tim Waltz, Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz.

556
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 14: At forty thousand votes right now, twenty percent of the

557
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 14: vote going to uncommitted and we've seen that already in

558
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:37,640
Speaker 14: this primary in Michigan. What message are voters in your

559
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 14: state trying to send to President Biden and what do

560
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 14: you want to see President Biden do in response?

561
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 13: Yeah, Look, they're engaged. We're really proud Minnesota civic responsibility.

562
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 13: We have some of the highest voter turnouts. These are

563
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 13: voters that are deeply concerned, as we all are. The

564
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 13: situation in Gaza is intolerable, and I think trying to

565
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 13: find a solutional asking two state solutions, certainly the president's

566
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 13: move towards humanitarian aid and asking us to get to

567
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 13: a cease fire. That's what they're asking to be heard,

568
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 13: and that's what they should be doing. We've gone through

569
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 13: this before and we know that. Now we make sure

570
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,679
Speaker 13: we've got eight months, we start bringing these folks back in.

571
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 13: We listen to what they're saying. That's a healthy thing

572
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 13: that's happening here, but I would note that the former

573
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 13: president lost twice as many votes here in Minnesota to

574
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 13: Nikki Haley. And I've seen some of these exit polls

575
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 13: out of North Carolina and O there's eighty percent of

576
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 13: folks said they're not voting for him who voted for

577
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 13: Nikki Haley. We'll get these folks back. I think it's

578
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 13: take them seriously. Their message is clear that they think

579
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 13: this is an intolerable situation and that we can do more.

580
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 13: And I think the president's hearing that.

581
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 5: All right, let's bring back Crystal and Saga into the conversation, Cristal,

582
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 5: What do you make of it? Not only in Minnesota

583
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 5: and North Carolina, Colorado, around the country. Minnesota had the

584
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 5: strongest performance for uncommitted, but around the country it was

585
00:28:54,920 --> 00:29:00,040
Speaker 5: clear that there is like widespread dissatisfaction with Biden and

586
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 5: with his war effort.

587
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 4: What did you make of it?

588
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, when you combine uncommitted and keep in mind that

589
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 1: not all of these states had uncommitted on the ballot,

590
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: which is why you should consider the votes for Maryanne

591
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 1: and the votes for Dean and the votes for uncommitted,

592
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: I think you should count all of those as basically

593
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 1: Biden protests votes, and also whatever other candidates Jank and

594
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 1: the other like unknown candidates that popped up on some

595
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: of these ballots, so quite significant. The Minnesota performance is

596
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 1: nothing short of astonishing. And I heard this talking point

597
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 1: over and over again on CNN, like, oh, sure Biden

598
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 1: lost a few votes, but look at Nikki Haley eating

599
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 1: into Trump. It is a very different deal to vote

600
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: for an actual candidate, and also, by the way, for

601
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:43,239
Speaker 1: it to be a lot of Democrats and independences who

602
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 1: are voting for that actual candidate than to have voters

603
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 1: taking the time out of their day to show up

604
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: to directly say screw you and your disgusting, immoral policy

605
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 1: visa vigaza. I mean that is extraordinary.

606
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 7: With no money, think of how much money Nikki Haley spent.

607
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 1: There was almost literally no money spent on this effort

608
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: in Minnesota.

609
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 7: It popped up.

610
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 1: In a week's time and outperformed by percentages what was

611
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 1: done in Michigan. So I think it is absolutely extraordinary.

612
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: And I do think that you have seen a rhetorical

613
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 1: shift from the Biden administration directly because of this uncommitted

614
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 1: protest vote. So you saw Kamala Harris with some more

615
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 1: strenuous language backing basically the same policy, but you also

616
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 1: see all of the dem flax out there instead of

617
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 1: going back to while Israel has a right to defend itself.

618
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: Now the line is, well, Biden is working day and

619
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: night to try to secure this ceasefire, and he hears

620
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 1: them and he agrees with that, so basically trying to gaslight.

621
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: But you can see there has been an impact and

622
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 1: that they are feeling pressure. You couple that with you

623
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: just abject horror of the Flower massacre, and I think

624
00:30:56,520 --> 00:31:00,479
Speaker 1: you do see that they are feeling some kind of

625
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 1: pressure from this movement, which will only continue and grow

626
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: post Super Tuesday. And once again the results show this

627
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 1: is not just a problem with Arab Americans. This isn't

628
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 1: just a problem with Muslim Americans or some other narrow

629
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 1: demographic group. If you are a Democrat and you want

630
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: to win the presidency of the United States once again,

631
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 1: you need young people to show up for you and

632
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: not to stay home. And young people are sending you

633
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 1: as loud and clear a message as they possibly can

634
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 1: that this current posture visa the Israel and Gaza is

635
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: utterly unacceptable.

636
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 6: And Biden wouldn't have won without a pretty decent surge

637
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 6: from young voters in twenty twenty, and in.

638
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 4: His margin, you wouldn't have the Senate either.

639
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 6: Yeah. Absolutely.

640
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 2: And one second, Ryan, can you break down the other

641
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 2: states for everybody the uncommitted?

642
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 3: Yes, because I know that we have all the other

643
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 3: states there.

644
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 4: Do we have the element that we can put up

645
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 4: for sure? All right? So yeah, let's run through these quickly.

646
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 5: So there we've got North Carolina knocking in it at

647
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 5: thirteen percent, which is, you know, pretty pretty strong performance,

648
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 5: at least as strong as Michigan.

649
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 4: Move moved to the next one.

650
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 5: We got Massachusetts coming in at almost ten percent, with

651
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 5: another nearly five percent for Dean Phillips.

652
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 4: Move on to the.

653
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 5: Colorado primary, what eight almost nine percent plus then a

654
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 5: handful you know, so you're looking at almost twenty percent

655
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 5: kind of protest votes with about ten percent there, and

656
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 5: then the Oklahoma primary almost ten percent of Oklahoma Democrats,

657
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 5: I'm saying uncommitted, like end end this war and.

658
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 4: If you know, if the Democratic Party was.

659
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 6: But also nine and nine for Dean Phillips and Marion Williamson, Yes,

660
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 6: right right, which is also a protest vote.

661
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 5: At this point, yes, and you know, so if the

662
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 5: party was an actual like power seeking operation that ran rationally,

663
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 5: somebody like the guy who just saw the Minnesota governor

664
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 5: Tim Walls, would he'd be the nominee, you know, by Waltz,

665
00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 5: you know, into the into the White House instead joke.

666
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, do you like that one?

667
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 15: No?

668
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 4: You loved it instead.

669
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 5: To Crystal's point, all we're getting is this kind of

670
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 5: change in rhetoric, and if you boil down, what they're

671
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 5: change in rhetoric is it's we are not complicit in

672
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 5: this evil. We are just too weak and incompetent to

673
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 5: stop it, which is okay. I guess that makes us

674
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 5: feel better about it maybe, but that's not much of

675
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 5: a selling point at all.

676
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 6: Well, actually, this is interesting because in California, here's establishment

677
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 6: Darling Adam Schiff. If we put B six up on

678
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 6: the screen the primary, this is a huge primary election

679
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 6: in California. People know the high profile candidates Katie Porter,

680
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 6: Barbara Lee. Now Steve Garvey actually did better than Katie

681
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 6: Porter and Barbara Lee's margins here or they're percentages here

682
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 6: put together. So this goes to the jungle primary runoff

683
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 6: type situation. Adam Shift secured thirty three percent of the vote.

684
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 6: I'm just curious, Ryan, Crystal Sager, what you take is on,

685
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 6: you know, with the Middle East weighing so heavily on

686
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 6: Democratic voter's minds Adam Schiff is a Biden establishment ally,

687
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 6: also a conspiracy bonger and weirdo. But that aside, I mean,

688
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 6: that's a it.

689
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 5: Did not weigh in here in this in this California primary.

690
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 5: It's very it's very interesting. Barbara Lee, you know, faring

691
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 5: faring terribly. I was actually in California over over the

692
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 5: weekend talking to a voter who is his primary issue

693
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 5: was anti Warren. Later in the conversation he said, I

694
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 5: hope Barbara Lee wins her re election. I was like, actually,

695
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 5: you know, she's running for Senate. He's like what, He's like,

696
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 5: no way, That's awesome. That's that's that's so cool. It's like,

697
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 5: barbar Lee is so screwed, like this is like this

698
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 5: is like her base. And he didn't even know that

699
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 5: she was running, which goes to the problem for anybody

700
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 5: running in California that it's just so insanely expensive.

701
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:55,880
Speaker 4: But Sager, what do you make of that?

702
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 2: Well, California obviously basically a rigged, you know, electoral systems

703
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 2: like that. I'll be honest around that, especially with the

704
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 2: dynamics that you just highlighted. Also, just to pick up

705
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 2: on that, we have a stot here. Some of these

706
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 2: protesters were interrupting Adam Shift and this goes to the

707
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,360
Speaker 2: question of how that will play out in the actual

708
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 2: general election.

709
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 3: Let's take a list to that so as everybody could see.

710
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 2: I mean, this is just going to be an ever

711
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 2: present problem I think for many of these establishment Democratic politicians.

712
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 2: We covered previously on our show about how Joe Biden

713
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: is going to like extensive lengths not to campaign and

714
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 2: college campuses, pretty humiliating the.

715
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 3: Sitting Democratic president.

716
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 2: You can't go to a college campus, honestly, Ryan, that

717
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 2: may be why he didn't do a victory speech last night.

718
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 2: And they're just terrified. As I understand it, they've been

719
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 2: contracting some third party security service to try and screen

720
00:35:57,680 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 2: people before you go in.

721
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 3: I mean, what we've gotten to that point. You know,

722
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 3: things are.

723
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 2: Not looking good for you, and it is humiliating because

724
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 2: you've not only got the votes in terms of uncommitted,

725
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:09,879
Speaker 2: but you've also got the physical manifestation of that at

726
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 2: every public appearance that you make from here on thus

727
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 2: far so overall. I mean, I'm just coming back to

728
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 2: the same Trump issue where Christal is right, many of

729
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 2: those people who voted in the primary are just probably

730
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 2: Democrats here though, you know, we have a probably a

731
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 2: bigger problem just given the gap between like the policy

732
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 2: that would actually have to happen to even get maybe

733
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 2: half of these people back in the door.

734
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:34,360
Speaker 3: It's very likely that he could.

735
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,399
Speaker 2: If there is a fatal blow in November, there will

736
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,360
Speaker 2: be many, many reasons as to why that happened, but

737
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 2: it's very likely we can trace a lot of it

738
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 2: back to here and to this right now.

739
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:46,280
Speaker 5: A Democrat not being able to go to a college

740
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 5: campus is like a Republican who couldn't campaign in the

741
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 5: village's Florida. And underscoring that point, if we could put

742
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 5: up the three and then Chris, all want to get

743
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 5: your response to this the element B three.

744
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 4: This polling that shows that.

745
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 5: Even among Republicans, thirty percent of Republicans want arms shipments

746
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 5: blocked to Israel, but sixty two percent of voters who

747
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:14,240
Speaker 5: supported Biden in twenty twenty want the US to block

748
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 5: weapons shipments to Israel. Ceasefire and blocking weapons shipments is

749
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 5: not a divisive or controversial position. It is the overwhelming

750
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 5: majority position of Democratic voters. Yet it is in stark

751
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 5: contrast to what the president is actually doing.

752
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:38,439
Speaker 1: Crystal, Yeah, that's exactly right, and I continue to bring

753
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 1: this up, but I am struck by the poll that

754
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 1: found that a majority of Joe Biden twenty twenty voters

755
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: say Israel is committing a genocide. And you just cannot

756
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 1: possibly overstate the sea change in American politics that has occurred, viz.

757
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 1: A VI the view of Israel and the view of

758
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: our relationship with regards to Israel. And so when you see,

759
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 1: you know, the actions of someone like Joe Biden, who's

760
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 1: been in DC for fifty years and has this view

761
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,359
Speaker 1: of Israel that dates back, you know, hasn't progressed since

762
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy and whatever he thought of it at the time.

763
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 1: The other thing is that, you know, one of his

764
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 1: ironclad like rules of the road in politics is you

765
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 1: never lose by being too pro Israel, because you know

766
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 1: there's much more funding on that side. I'm not trying

767
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 1: to be an anti Submitic comment. It's a statement of

768
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:30,359
Speaker 1: reality given the funding behind APAC and how influential that

769
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 1: has been and how comparatively. I mean, there's basically no

770
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: funding benefit to be gained on the Palestinian side of

771
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 1: the equation.

772
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 7: And also typically the people who.

773
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,880
Speaker 1: Vote on that issue are the people who are most

774
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:48,879
Speaker 1: vociferously lockstep for whatever it is that Israel wants to do,

775
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 1: that particular dynamic may well be changing. I think that's

776
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,959
Speaker 1: the piece that is different that Biden and many other

777
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 1: Democratic politicians really haven't accounted for that. Now you have

778
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 1: this very very impassioned and frankly radicalized group of predominantly

779
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 1: but not exclusively, young voters who are voting directly on

780
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 1: this issue. And so I think that's part of, you know,

781
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 1: where the disconnect and why they've been so slow to

782
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 1: even change the rhetoric with regards to Israel and Palestine

783
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 1: let alone. They still haven't changed the policies. So this

784
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 1: is a massive issue that you know, there are videos

785
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 1: every day coming out of Kierson Gillibrand's town hall. You know,

786
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 1: so many protesters there, AOC gett chased out of a

787
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 1: movie theater because you won't call it a genocide. Adam

788
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 1: Schiff getting shouted down at his own victory speech. Every

789
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 1: single Democrat is being held to account for this monstrous,

790
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,760
Speaker 1: abhorrent policy that again a majority of their own party

791
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:52,359
Speaker 1: says makes them complicit in a genocide. So I think

792
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 1: the political landscape has completely flipped in a way that

793
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 1: many of these politicians haven't accounted for. Just to throw

794
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 1: on a couple things typically about California, don't claim to

795
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 1: be a political expert in the ins and outs of

796
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,359
Speaker 1: California politics. I do want to mention Adam shiff spent

797
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 1: I think more money propping up the Republican candidate than

798
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,800
Speaker 1: he did even on his own campaign because he wanted

799
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 1: to make sure he wasn't up against another Democrat in

800
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 1: the fall, because he feels very confident, of course in

801
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 1: California can be a Republican. It wasn't so confident he

802
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 1: could beat say Katie Porter, Barbara Lee had to head.

803
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 1: The other thing is my understanding, based on you know,

804
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 1: what I've seen of the messaging in that race, is

805
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:30,399
Speaker 1: that none of them really put Gaza at the core

806
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 1: of their messaging. And yes, Barbara Lee is seen as

807
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: like you know, generally anti war, but she hasn't been

808
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 1: leading the charge in the way that Saya Rashida Talebor

809
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 1: like an ilhan omar Has and California also their uncommitted vote,

810
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 1: you know, protests vote on Super Tuesday was one of

811
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 1: the lower ones of the states that actually went for

812
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:51,479
Speaker 1: whatever reason, I'm not really sure why.

813
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 6: And I think it's also worth mentioning while we're in

814
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 6: California that both George Gascone and la and Jose Garza

815
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 6: and Travis ca Any which soccer you're obviously very familiar with,

816
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 6: held onto their seats and these pretty competitive Democratic primaries

817
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:09,320
Speaker 6: not super close either, And that contrasts with the mood

818
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 6: of the country back in twenty twenty two, where it

819
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 6: was sort of like, oh, you know, Democrats are going

820
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,359
Speaker 6: to have to do attack to the center in order

821
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 6: to make up from this backlash of twenty twenty. Well

822
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 6: then Dobbs came down and now we're here and Israel happened.

823
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 6: So I think there's just there's so much going on

824
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:31,359
Speaker 6: with young voters, in particular for Democrats, that if there's

825
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 6: going to be a wake up call, you would think

826
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 6: the results that are coming in showing you know, some

827
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 6: seriously alarming drops and enthusiasm for Joe Biden that could

828
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 6: affect turnout. It could affect his margins could affect third parties.

829
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 6: These would be those red flags, those warning signs. But Ryan,

830
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:49,400
Speaker 6: there was a glaring red flag last night in American

831
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 6: Samoa in the form of Jason Palmer.

832
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 5: Jason Palmer ran what is I think it's got to

833
00:41:55,640 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 5: be the coolest campaign ever. So he beat Biden for

834
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:06,720
Speaker 5: the delegates from American Samoa. Congratulations to yes, Jason Palmer,

835
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 5: very very well known here in the here in the mainland.

836
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 5: Let's let's play a little bit of the case that

837
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 5: he made to American Samoan voters.

838
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,399
Speaker 15: I'm asking for your support and vote and would love

839
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 15: to talk to you about why I believe I'm the

840
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:26,360
Speaker 15: best candidate for American Samoan, a beautiful and diverse territory

841
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 15: that needs much more attention and support from our federal government.

842
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 15: You're probably wondering, who is this Jason Palmer. I've never

843
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 15: heard of him before. Well, in the mainland, I'm actually

844
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:39,479
Speaker 15: very well known.

845
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 5: I can I can vouch for that, right, that is

846
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 5: the man. As soon as I saw I'm like Jason

847
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:47,919
Speaker 5: Palmer the man.

848
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 6: And I don't know who saw Fox News call the

849
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 6: race for Jason Palmer, but Brett Behar was really confused

850
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,359
Speaker 6: in the video. He was like, I don't know who

851
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 6: that is.

852
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 4: He's out of touch. He's out of touch. Jason Palmer's

853
00:42:59,200 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 4: huge and.

854
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 6: Jason and Palmer looks like he's a realtor in you know,

855
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 6: suburban Minneapolis or something. He's got the Martin Luther King's

856
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 6: American speech in the background. It's just like if if

857
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 6: you were watching the video, he really had a frame

858
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,800
Speaker 6: picture of Martin Luther King giving his American giving his

859
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 6: I have a dream speech behind him. I mean, it

860
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 6: was just perfect in so many ways.

861
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 5: Ryan, Yeah, incredible. Congratulations to Jason Palmer.

862
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 6: Kristin Sager. Are you voting for him?

863
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:26,799
Speaker 7: Oh yeah, maybe absolutely in the fall.

864
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 3: He's a very well known figure. You know about him

865
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 3: for years.

866
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:34,760
Speaker 7: He's big on TikTok. I think I don't know zoomers.

867
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 5: Love him too, good for the kids, love them so

868
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 5: good for Jason Palmer.

869
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,240
Speaker 4: Very very exciting. Love love love to see it.

870
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 6: Well, Sager. I want to test this last element to

871
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 6: you in the block. This is more results out of

872
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 6: Texas again. I think the theme of this block when

873
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 6: it comes to how Biden performed last night on Super Tuesday,

874
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 6: we can go ahead and put b ten up on

875
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:58,760
Speaker 6: the screen, just some really some of the signs from

876
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 6: the polling that's found and starting to flag with Hispanic voters,

877
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 6: Black voters, young voters started to show up in the

878
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:07,359
Speaker 6: returns yesterday. Talked to us a little bit about these

879
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 6: results from Cameron County.

880
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had big eyes in South Texas just because

881
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 2: that was such a big flip that we saw that

882
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:18,880
Speaker 2: happened in twenty twenty in some cases moving like forty

883
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:21,720
Speaker 2: to fifty percent of the vote from Hillary Clinton to Trump.

884
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 3: What you saw last night was actually pretty fascinating.

885
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 2: It's not just Cameron County, but what we try to

886
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:29,240
Speaker 2: highlight there is a lot of the results all across

887
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 2: South Texas where you actually saw a pretty significant, st

888
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 2: significant protest vote for Armando Perez Serrato.

889
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 3: Who is a Democrat.

890
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 2: He's kind of an all over the play, all over

891
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 2: the place gentleman, but critically was somebody who came out

892
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:48,320
Speaker 2: very hard against Joe Biden, said that he was too old,

893
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 2: disagreed with him on the Israel policy, went after a

894
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 2: lot of the establishment Democrats. That showed me that he

895
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 2: was one of the most polling protest vote candidates. But

896
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 2: it was localized to South Texas, where he spent a

897
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 2: lot of the time actually campaigning on And I think

898
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:07,879
Speaker 2: what it kind of highlights for us here on show

899
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 2: is that regardless of where people are, you know, in Minnesota,

900
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 2: we saw some Dean Phillips voters and noncommitted voters. Maryanne

901
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:16,719
Speaker 2: actually did quite well here in Virginia where Krystal and

902
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 2: I are, you know, in certain places where there were

903
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 2: younger voters. South Texas, everyone is localizing some of their

904
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 2: descent against Biden, and then that comes down to how

905
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 2: are they actually going to come out and vote. And

906
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 2: if you couple discent of the existing Democrats and then

907
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:35,840
Speaker 2: the Republican like surge of twenty twenty and really in

908
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two as well in South Texas, I think

909
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:42,280
Speaker 2: that it will fundamentally change the electoral map of Texas

910
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 2: such that the Republican suburbs will vote Democrat, but they

911
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:47,879
Speaker 2: will make up for it with a lot of non,

912
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 2: non college educated voters.

913
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 3: And I found that really interesting in the results last night.

914
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, and my understanding from what's going on around there

915
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:58,240
Speaker 5: is that a lot of this just feels kind of cultural,

916
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 5: like the area has just become and culturally Republican, like

917
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 5: it's just in the water like it used to be

918
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 5: culturally democrat, Like you're you're a Democrat because you live

919
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 5: in this area.

920
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 6: Uh, now is the Florida.

921
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:11,240
Speaker 4: It's the Flora.

922
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:13,840
Speaker 5: I mean I think some some of it is the

923
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 5: is the media, like the Spanish language take takeover by

924
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 5: the right wing of the media.

925
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 4: Uh that that is dominant there?

926
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 5: I think is where kind of you get that in

927
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:28,920
Speaker 5: the water, Like that's that's kind of what makes the

928
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 5: water is what you consume on Facebook and also then

929
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 5: uh through the Spanish language television.

930
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:35,759
Speaker 4: But yeah, is that is that.

931
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 5: Your read Soger and Emily that it's just becoming just

932
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 5: like you're just you just are a Republican, Like I

933
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 5: think this is going to go from a Democratic stronghold

934
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 5: to pretty soon being just Republican territory.

935
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:48,840
Speaker 3: Like I don't think the labels are useful.

936
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 2: It's just like the Tejano kind of libertarian identity has

937
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 2: been there for a long time, in some cases longer

938
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,000
Speaker 2: than even many people who have lived in Texas who

939
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 2: are white. So my point is just that I kind

940
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 2: to apply like national like it's the right right would

941
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 2: take over to the media and all that I just

942
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 2: don't really think it's accurate.

943
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 3: I think a lot of it just comes.

944
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 2: Back to the fact that they truly felt screwed by

945
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 2: they felt abandoned by Democrats on a couple of key issues.

946
00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:18,720
Speaker 2: Inflation was a huge one actually in twenty twenty I believe,

947
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 2: if I remember, gas and COVID checks were a huge

948
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 2: reason why people voted for Trump back then. But when

949
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:29,240
Speaker 2: you continue into twenty twenty two, immigration had become a massive, massive,

950
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 2: massive issue down there. I mean not just there, really

951
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:33,839
Speaker 2: across the entire country. I think last night we saw

952
00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:36,720
Speaker 2: it was one of the number one things that people

953
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:38,759
Speaker 2: were said that they were voting on or was their

954
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 2: top priority, especially in the Republican Party. So my point

955
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 2: is just that it doesn't come back to media. It

956
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 2: comes down to, I think actually genuinely local conditions and

957
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 2: to a broader, more like libertarian aesthetic identity combined with

958
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 2: some cultural conservatism that has existed there for, you know,

959
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:57,479
Speaker 2: on more than one hundred years now. At this point,

960
00:47:57,520 --> 00:47:59,240
Speaker 2: it's a very unique part of the country. I encourage

961
00:47:59,280 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 2: everybody to.

962
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 3: Go if you can. It's pretty fascinating place.

963
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 6: And there's just a ghoulish segment on MSNBC last night.

964
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 6: I don't know how I saw this, but about it

965
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:11,359
Speaker 6: was Jensaki, Rachel Mattaw, Joy and Reid laughing about how

966
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 6: Yes exit polls found Republican voters in Virginia were very

967
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:16,839
Speaker 6: concerned about immigration, and Jen Psaki was like, I live

968
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 6: in Virginia, come on, And then I think one of them,

969
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 6: Rachel Mattow was like, well, it's very close to West

970
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 6: Virginia in this just completely obnoxious way. And you know,

971
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:27,759
Speaker 6: it's worth noting that just a few days ago a

972
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:31,760
Speaker 6: Venezuelan migrant who was here illegally was charged with sexual

973
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 6: assault against a fourteen year old in Virginia. So wherever

974
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 6: you stand on the immigration issue, it has changed communities

975
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:41,440
Speaker 6: all over the country. So I think that was another

976
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 6: I mean, Jensaki is still close with Biden World and

977
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:45,759
Speaker 6: representative of Biden World, and that's sort of sticking your

978
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 6: head in the sand. You guys, have any final thoughts

979
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:49,919
Speaker 6: on this before we kick you out and talk about

980
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 6: Victoria Newland, I'll like, Crystal.

981
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:55,080
Speaker 1: Go you open the can of worms with those immigrant comments.

982
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 1: I'll just say that, you know, I do think that

983
00:48:57,320 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 1: a lot of the concern which we see spike around

984
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 1: election time times fed by right wing media is a

985
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 1: sort of like.

986
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:04,760
Speaker 7: Gindaup moral panic.

987
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 1: Not to say that it's not a legitimate issue, and

988
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 1: to respond to the MSNBC people treating voters with contempt

989
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 1: is always the wrong moves. Yeah, hotshall say us unifying

990
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 1: comments rather than starting a shit storm.

991
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 7: Here.

992
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 1: Last two thoughts with regards to the democratic results. Number

993
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:23,959
Speaker 1: one just wanted to flag that the dude in California,

994
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:26,760
Speaker 1: David Mann I believe is his name, who is running

995
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:28,760
Speaker 1: to replace Katie Porter in her seat.

996
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:29,759
Speaker 7: He had four and a.

997
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 1: Half million dollars of a PAC money spent against him

998
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:37,240
Speaker 1: in that primary and he still was able to succeed

999
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:40,440
Speaker 1: and was the top finishing Democrat and will go on

1000
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 1: to the general election. And one other note about him,

1001
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 1: this guy is not where I am on Gaza and.

1002
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 7: Israel's very pro Israel. But he was like mildly.

1003
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:53,360
Speaker 1: Critical of Benjamin net Yahoo, which by the way, overwhelmingly

1004
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:56,879
Speaker 1: Israelis are extremely critical of Benjamin net Yahoo. But that's

1005
00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:59,360
Speaker 1: the reason they poured all these millions into that raze.

1006
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:02,240
Speaker 1: He was able to overcome that. That is somewhat encouraging.

1007
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 1: So when I put that out there and then the

1008
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:07,280
Speaker 1: last note with regards to the revolt among young people

1009
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 1: in a number of these special elections where the result

1010
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 1: really turned on access to abortion and outrage over the

1011
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:17,359
Speaker 1: overturning of Roe versus Way.

1012
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 7: It was a surge in.

1013
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 1: Young people, an unexpected surge in young people in those

1014
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 1: special elections that help Democrats.

1015
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 7: Democrats secure those victories.

1016
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:29,440
Speaker 1: If you are dismissing the concerns of these young people,

1017
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 1: if you were thinking they're just going to get over

1018
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 1: what they see and what I see as a genocide,

1019
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:35,560
Speaker 1: you have another thing coming.

1020
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:39,120
Speaker 7: Shifting your rhetoric is not going to be enough. They

1021
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:40,440
Speaker 7: see right through it.

1022
00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 1: And that was I think very clear in the results

1023
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 1: last night, especially in the state of Minnesota.

1024
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, Da've min race was fascinating because nobody could really

1025
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 5: understand why APAC was spending millions of dollars against this

1026
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:54,680
Speaker 5: guy who's not even that critical of Israel. The only

1027
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:57,319
Speaker 5: thing people could land on his campaign concluded that they're

1028
00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:00,320
Speaker 5: just trying to soften him up for the general election

1029
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 5: against the Republican in a swing district, which suggests that

1030
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:07,399
Speaker 5: a PAK is moving very much like the NRA did.

1031
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 5: The n RA was a bipartisan organization for decades, and

1032
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:14,799
Speaker 5: then as there became some criticism within the Democratic Party,

1033
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 5: the NRA decided we're not gonna be bipartisan anymore because

1034
00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 5: we're just gonna, you know, be a republican organization. And

1035
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 5: doesn't matter if a Democrat says they support us. We

1036
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 5: just feel safer over here with Republicans that well, you know,

1037
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:32,359
Speaker 5: we saw how that worked out for the NRA.

1038
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:34,719
Speaker 4: But when it comes to a PAK yesterday, we're going

1039
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:37,320
Speaker 4: to talk about this later later in the show. Benny

1040
00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 4: Gans was here in is here in Washington, d C.

1041
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:42,879
Speaker 4: Mike Johnson declined to meet with him.

1042
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:46,840
Speaker 5: YEA, so fascinating, careful, careful with this, like alliance with

1043
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:49,720
Speaker 5: the Magah of the party here Israel.

1044
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 4: I'm not not exactly sure this is so well thought out.

1045
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:54,799
Speaker 2: I'm excited to hear you guys segment on that because

1046
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 2: I saw some of your analysis, Ryan, and I thought

1047
00:51:56,719 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 2: it was really as dude, I think on the APAC side,

1048
00:51:58,719 --> 00:52:00,200
Speaker 2: it's just like the joke er quote.

1049
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:01,719
Speaker 3: It's about sending the message.

1050
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 2: And I think they've got unlimited amounts of money now

1051
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:06,920
Speaker 2: at this point. I mean, they're more cash flushed, I

1052
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:09,239
Speaker 2: think than they've ever been, probably at the peak of

1053
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:11,799
Speaker 2: their spending powers, and you know, in certain ways, like

1054
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:15,719
Speaker 2: their entire organization was dedicated and exists specifically for a

1055
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 2: moment like this where even if public opinion is turning,

1056
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:20,480
Speaker 2: that they can flex their weight, you know, in such

1057
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:22,920
Speaker 2: a way that they can try and enforce what they want. So,

1058
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 2: you know, in a certain way, like they're they're really

1059
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 2: fulfilling their mandate.

1060
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 4: I think, yeah, you know, they certainly are.

1061
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 5: So Again, on Thursday, we'll be here, the four of us. Well,

1062
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:34,840
Speaker 5: I don't know if all four of us are starting

1063
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 5: at eight thirty. We'll figure it out.

1064
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:38,760
Speaker 4: Be here at eight thirty while.

1065
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 5: We preview the state of the Union, and then at

1066
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 5: ten o'clock there will be for premium subscribers Q and

1067
00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:48,160
Speaker 5: a analysis, and we'll do that as long as soccer

1068
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:48,920
Speaker 5: can stay awake.

1069
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:51,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll try it. I'm gonna try my best.

1070
00:52:51,520 --> 00:52:51,839
Speaker 9: All right.

1071
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:54,359
Speaker 3: Thank you guys for having us, Thank you for having us.

1072
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 6: Take your tie off, Take it easy.

1073
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 4: Seismic news coming out of Ukraine.

1074
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 5: Victoria Newland, who has overseen effectively America's strategy in Ukraine

1075
00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:10,400
Speaker 5: and with regards to Russia for more than ten years.

1076
00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 5: You would argue is stepping down signaling we can put

1077
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 5: this element up, signaling a likely strategic shift coming forward

1078
00:53:19,840 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 5: if we could put up this second element here this

1079
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:25,320
Speaker 5: is a post on Twitter that was going around. I

1080
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 5: think second not terribly unfair. The guy wrote big news,

1081
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 5: likely signaling a major policy shift. Newland has run point

1082
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 5: on our Russia Europe policy ever since we helped engineer

1083
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 5: the made on Kudeta. The results after ten years are

1084
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 5: in Ukraine is destroyed and has permanently lost Crimea in

1085
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 5: its main industrial region Europe. The industrializing Russia permanently alienated

1086
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 5: and tighter than ever with China, India, and Iran.

1087
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:50,680
Speaker 4: Much of the world.

1088
00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:55,400
Speaker 5: Refused to isolate Russia and suffered no consequences. Institution central

1089
00:53:55,400 --> 00:53:58,880
Speaker 5: to US dollar hegemony no longer viewed as neutral. Nordstream

1090
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 5: We're going to talk about this later when we talk

1091
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:03,800
Speaker 5: when we get to the Huthis and the cables, the

1092
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 5: fiber optic cables. Nord Stream broke the steal on sabotaging

1093
00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 5: international infrastructure. Russian military capabilities significantly increased, not decreased.

1094
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:14,560
Speaker 4: Countries like Iron, North Korea, etc.

1095
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 5: Seen that short of total war, NATO conventional capabilities are

1096
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 5: quite limited, she writes, Still Nolan is won, he writes, still,

1097
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 5: Nolan is one of those undead creatures in Washington who

1098
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:27,400
Speaker 5: has only ever failed upwards. So her resignation probably indicates

1099
00:54:27,600 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 5: her usefulness has finally run out. You know, this is

1100
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 5: one of those posts where you look at you like,

1101
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:37,920
Speaker 5: no lies detected.

1102
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 6: Basically, and you know, Ryan this I don't know if

1103
00:54:41,200 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 6: this was a Freudian slip, but I thought it was

1104
00:54:43,080 --> 00:54:45,319
Speaker 6: really funny when you opened this block you said big

1105
00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:48,960
Speaker 6: news out of Ukraine, when technically it really is big

1106
00:54:49,000 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 6: news out of Ukraine. Though she is a US diplomat.

1107
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:54,880
Speaker 6: There's a quote here from Secretary of State Tony Blincoln

1108
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 6: who said it's Toria's leadership on Ukraine that diplomats and

1109
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:02,239
Speaker 6: students of Foreign Pol he will study for years to come.

1110
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:05,200
Speaker 6: This he's what he said in a written statement. No

1111
00:55:05,320 --> 00:55:09,239
Speaker 6: lies detected there either. Her efforts have been indispensable to

1112
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:14,240
Speaker 6: confronting Putin's full scale invasion of Ukraine, marshaling a global

1113
00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:18,000
Speaker 6: coalition to ensure his strategic failure, and that's where the

1114
00:55:18,040 --> 00:55:20,279
Speaker 6: lies are sort of starting to be detected. But it's

1115
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:24,400
Speaker 6: absolutely true that she will be studied for years to come.

1116
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:26,799
Speaker 6: And I would also just add to this Ryan, I

1117
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 6: think Tony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden himself, remember

1118
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:34,399
Speaker 6: who was point man on Ukraine for the Obama administration

1119
00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:38,319
Speaker 6: and obviously had different family ties through a hunter to

1120
00:55:38,600 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 6: the Ukrainian economy, although I set that aside for the

1121
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:43,279
Speaker 6: moment because I don't even think it matters entirely in

1122
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:45,920
Speaker 6: this context, because I think Joe Biden would be utterly

1123
00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:51,759
Speaker 6: committed to Ukraine and to Zelenski and to their sort

1124
00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:54,239
Speaker 6: of goal to remain as a bull work against Putinism

1125
00:55:54,280 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 6: as they see it, no matter what. And there is

1126
00:55:58,640 --> 00:56:01,440
Speaker 6: the reading of this as a seismic shift that I

1127
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:07,880
Speaker 6: genuinely wonder about, because, for example, Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden,

1128
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:10,320
Speaker 6: and Tony Blincoln are still running policy.

1129
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:14,480
Speaker 5: And it's rare that a diplomat can become so influential

1130
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 5: that she becomes kind of like a figure and a

1131
00:56:18,040 --> 00:56:20,319
Speaker 5: power center in her own right, and Newland did that

1132
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:24,800
Speaker 5: with regard to Ukraine, Europe and Russia. Brett McGirk is

1133
00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:27,520
Speaker 5: getting there when it comes to kind of Mid East policy.

1134
00:56:27,560 --> 00:56:30,359
Speaker 5: We'll see if he survives this particular moment.

1135
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:31,239
Speaker 4: Don Leu a.

1136
00:56:31,160 --> 00:56:35,320
Speaker 5: State Department official in South Asia, if he has another

1137
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:40,200
Speaker 5: five ten years as he's been doing there ineffectively, but

1138
00:56:40,239 --> 00:56:42,920
Speaker 5: effectively for you know, American imperial interests. You know, he

1139
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 5: could rise to the level of a Newland, But she

1140
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 5: is kind of in a league of her own and

1141
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:54,160
Speaker 5: in something that does not bode necessarily well for Ukrainians

1142
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:56,840
Speaker 5: who are hoping that, you know, the American policy is

1143
00:56:56,840 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 5: going to stay the course. Put up this next element here,

1144
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:03,400
Speaker 5: This is from the Associated Press, says Newland will be

1145
00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 5: replaced temporarily as Under Secretary by another career diplomat, John Bass,

1146
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:12,040
Speaker 5: a former ambassador to Afghanistan who oversaw.

1147
00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:13,800
Speaker 4: The US withdrawal from the country.

1148
00:57:13,960 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 6: Everything's fine, yeah, right, yes, you're good hands.

1149
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:17,200
Speaker 11: Right.

1150
00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 5: It's like you work at a major corporation and they

1151
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:23,040
Speaker 5: introduced these new consultants who are going to help us

1152
00:57:23,080 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 5: right size the place, and they're going to be meeting

1153
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:28,880
Speaker 5: with each of you for fifteen minutes, and it's it's

1154
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:30,520
Speaker 5: just gonna pop up on your calendar and don't worry

1155
00:57:30,520 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 5: about it.

1156
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:31,200
Speaker 6: Don't worry.

1157
00:57:31,320 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's going to be fine.

1158
00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 6: Big yeah. The huge vibes with that comparison here, I

1159
00:57:36,760 --> 00:57:39,200
Speaker 6: actually want to skip ahead to our last element. This

1160
00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 6: is C five because I think it's This is from

1161
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:45,760
Speaker 6: the All In podcast. It's David Sachs talking about Victoria Newland,

1162
00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 6: and I think this is super relevant and well put.

1163
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:52,920
Speaker 6: He actually you're going to hear him compare Newland to

1164
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 6: being what Fauci was to COVID to Ukraine, and his

1165
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:00,640
Speaker 6: co hosts are sort of laughing and enjoying this. It

1166
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:03,000
Speaker 6: is amusing. But I think it's amusing because it's it's

1167
00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:05,160
Speaker 6: a really good way to look at it. Let's roll

1168
00:58:05,240 --> 00:58:05,919
Speaker 6: see five here.

1169
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 16: Newland is the Fauci of this situation. Okay, the same

1170
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 16: way that Fauci was supposed to be protecting us go

1171
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:18,360
Speaker 16: from viruses and then fund it in a function research Victoria.

1172
00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:21,640
Speaker 3: Label let me tell us or misinformation?

1173
00:58:22,840 --> 00:58:25,560
Speaker 16: Victoria Newland was supposed to be our chief diplomat with

1174
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:29,400
Speaker 16: respect to Russia and Eastern Europe. And what did she do? Instead?

1175
00:58:29,640 --> 00:58:31,640
Speaker 16: She jinned up this conflict.

1176
00:58:31,840 --> 00:58:32,760
Speaker 3: How jinned up?

1177
00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:37,640
Speaker 16: We backed in insurrection in Ukraine in twenty fourteen, Jason.

1178
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:39,840
Speaker 16: If you didn't like the insurrection of January sixth, let

1179
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:41,800
Speaker 16: me tell you aren't going to like the insurrection that

1180
00:58:41,840 --> 00:58:45,680
Speaker 16: she staged in Ukraine because they brought in these Ukrainian

1181
00:58:45,720 --> 00:58:48,800
Speaker 16: far right nationalists as the muscle. She was the State

1182
00:58:48,840 --> 00:58:53,280
Speaker 16: Department official who was responsible for backing this insurrection of

1183
00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 16: a democratically elected leader in Ukraine in twenty fourteen named Yanikovich.

1184
00:58:58,760 --> 00:59:01,680
Speaker 5: Okay, and you know what it's it's really actually pretty

1185
00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:07,080
Speaker 5: hard in America to talk about the Maydon uprising accurately

1186
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:12,080
Speaker 5: and honestly without sounding like a lunaticy. And so for instance,

1187
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:15,720
Speaker 5: and so we're gonna play a documentary that that like

1188
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 5: gets into Newland's role and the role of John McCain

1189
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:21,160
Speaker 5: and Chris Murphy and this as well as she showed

1190
00:59:21,200 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 5: up and started handing out basically baked goods and symbolically

1191
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:26,960
Speaker 5: and a gesture that was covered a lot by Western

1192
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 5: media in the Maydon Square to show show us.

1193
00:59:31,160 --> 00:59:33,480
Speaker 4: Support for this operation.

1194
00:59:33,880 --> 00:59:35,480
Speaker 5: And why why I say it's very hard to talk

1195
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:38,040
Speaker 5: about it honestly without sounding like a total crank is

1196
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:41,640
Speaker 5: because uh, there there there was a massacre in in

1197
00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:44,760
Speaker 5: the Maydon Square that led to the far right basically

1198
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 5: taking over. There were then allegations that it was a

1199
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 5: false flag, that the that it was actually the far

1200
00:59:50,680 --> 00:59:54,120
Speaker 5: right themselves, uh, that that open fire on mayde on

1201
00:59:54,200 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 5: protesters in order to instigate this entire thing. There was

1202
00:59:57,640 --> 01:00:03,800
Speaker 5: then a huge internal invent mistigation done by the subsequent

1203
01:00:03,920 --> 01:00:08,040
Speaker 5: Ukrainian governments, and that investigation has never been published, like

1204
01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:11,880
Speaker 5: it's completed, and we just don't have it very serious

1205
01:00:12,000 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 5: credible people who have looked very closely at this do

1206
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:18,800
Speaker 5: not dismiss that out of hand. And the far far

1207
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:23,280
Speaker 5: right figures, the most far right figures who were involved

1208
01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:27,360
Speaker 5: in that uprising, hijacked the entire thing, and you know,

1209
01:00:27,440 --> 01:00:31,360
Speaker 5: with direct kind of neo Nazi connections went right into

1210
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:35,959
Speaker 5: the government that Victorian Newland helped to facilitate.

1211
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:39,240
Speaker 4: So let's roll a little bit of the history of

1212
01:00:39,280 --> 01:00:39,720
Speaker 4: that moment.

1213
01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:42,640
Speaker 6: And this, by the way, is from Oliver Stone's documentary,

1214
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:43,720
Speaker 6: which I really reckonize.

1215
01:00:43,760 --> 01:00:45,720
Speaker 5: Like I said, everybody thinks Oliver Stone's a crank, but

1216
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 5: this is based on actual history, like these things really happened.

1217
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:54,760
Speaker 5: You can hate Oliver Stone, you can think he's a crank,

1218
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:57,200
Speaker 5: but this is what happened.

1219
01:00:57,240 --> 01:00:58,840
Speaker 6: It's called The Ukraine on Fire. It was released in

1220
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:02,200
Speaker 6: twenty sixteen, and here he's actually talking to Victor Yanikovic,

1221
01:01:02,680 --> 01:01:05,920
Speaker 6: who David Sachs obviously just mentioned that was intercepted.

1222
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 17: It was a call between the Assistant Secretary of State

1223
01:01:08,160 --> 01:01:12,360
Speaker 17: for European Affairs, Victoria Newland and the US Ambassador to Ukraine,

1224
01:01:12,560 --> 01:01:13,400
Speaker 17: Jeffrey Pyatt.

1225
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:17,080
Speaker 1: Questions of credibility are being raised after a private chat

1226
01:01:17,440 --> 01:01:20,920
Speaker 1: between two top US diplomats was leaked online.

1227
01:01:21,080 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 18: I think Yachts is the guy who's got the economic experience,

1228
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:25,520
Speaker 18: the governing experience.

1229
01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:26,640
Speaker 6: He's the guy.

1230
01:01:26,720 --> 01:01:29,080
Speaker 18: You know, what he needs is Cleech and Tony Book

1231
01:01:29,120 --> 01:01:32,480
Speaker 18: on the outside. I just think Cleech going in, he's

1232
01:01:32,520 --> 01:01:35,120
Speaker 18: going to be at that level working for Yachts and

1233
01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:36,439
Speaker 18: yuk It's just not going to work.

1234
01:01:36,920 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 11: Yeah, So I think that. I think that's right.

1235
01:01:38,840 --> 01:01:40,080
Speaker 13: Okay, good.

1236
01:01:40,120 --> 01:01:41,400
Speaker 11: Would you want us to try to show up a

1237
01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:41,920
Speaker 11: call with him?

1238
01:01:42,160 --> 01:01:45,240
Speaker 18: There's your next Jeff Sullivan's come back to me VFR

1239
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 18: saying you need Biden, and I said probably tomorrow for

1240
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:50,320
Speaker 18: an ATA boy and to get the deeds to stick.

1241
01:01:50,760 --> 01:01:51,680
Speaker 18: So Biden's willing.

1242
01:01:51,920 --> 01:01:55,000
Speaker 17: So you had this remarkable phone call where you have

1243
01:01:55,040 --> 01:01:58,320
Speaker 17: these two senior officials of the US government apparently talking

1244
01:01:58,320 --> 01:02:00,880
Speaker 17: about a coup or how they were played to restructure

1245
01:02:00,920 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 17: the government of Ukraine.

1246
01:02:02,160 --> 01:02:03,600
Speaker 6: So just a heads up that was not the clip

1247
01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:05,320
Speaker 6: where he was with the Nakovich Shi that was my bad.

1248
01:02:05,400 --> 01:02:09,440
Speaker 6: But he does extensive interviews with Yanikovich in this documentary.

1249
01:02:09,160 --> 01:02:12,080
Speaker 4: Right and just be transparenting on Akovich to Russian leaning guy.

1250
01:02:12,680 --> 01:02:16,120
Speaker 6: So, but that's what's interesting is he seemed like he

1251
01:02:16,160 --> 01:02:19,560
Speaker 6: was trying to make overtures to the EU. And people

1252
01:02:19,600 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 6: remember the lobbying scheme that Paul Manifort got caught up

1253
01:02:23,880 --> 01:02:26,760
Speaker 6: in when he was at Mercury Public Affairs, a huge,

1254
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:30,840
Speaker 6: powerful lobbying firm and the Podesta Group. Tony Podesta ended

1255
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:34,080
Speaker 6: up having to retroactively file as a registered lobbyist on

1256
01:02:34,120 --> 01:02:36,640
Speaker 6: behalf of Ukraine because he was representing And again, you

1257
01:02:36,680 --> 01:02:38,360
Speaker 6: sound like a crank when you talk about this, but

1258
01:02:38,400 --> 01:02:42,439
Speaker 6: it's true. The Party of Regions, Yanikovich's party, they set

1259
01:02:42,520 --> 01:02:45,680
Speaker 6: up a shell think tank called the European Center for

1260
01:02:45,800 --> 01:02:50,440
Speaker 6: a Modern Ukraine in order to avoid registering on behalf

1261
01:02:50,520 --> 01:02:53,560
Speaker 6: of Ferra. Now, eventually, through really great reporting by Ken

1262
01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:57,040
Speaker 6: Vogel and others, it came to be completely apparent that

1263
01:02:57,080 --> 01:02:59,520
Speaker 6: this was a shell think tank representing a political party

1264
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:04,200
Speaker 6: in Ukraine and they were trying basically to help Yanikovich

1265
01:03:04,280 --> 01:03:07,280
Speaker 6: get closer to the West. They were talking extensively to

1266
01:03:07,360 --> 01:03:09,600
Speaker 6: Hillary Clinton's State Department. You can see that in their

1267
01:03:09,640 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 6: retroactive filings. So this was all super tangled with Western interests.

1268
01:03:15,360 --> 01:03:17,200
Speaker 6: It's the same thing when you go down the Barisma

1269
01:03:17,280 --> 01:03:21,680
Speaker 6: rabbit hole and you realize how connected to sort of

1270
01:03:21,680 --> 01:03:25,560
Speaker 6: political power Barisma was, and then Hunter Biden was, and

1271
01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:29,120
Speaker 6: then Joe Biden was just sort of by association. Western

1272
01:03:29,160 --> 01:03:34,400
Speaker 6: interests in Ukraine have been pushing in making money off

1273
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:37,200
Speaker 6: of Ukrainian politics in really disgusting ways. And I think

1274
01:03:37,200 --> 01:03:39,240
Speaker 6: one of the things, and Ryan, I'm curious because you

1275
01:03:39,240 --> 01:03:42,600
Speaker 6: probably remember this covering this when it happened with Madan,

1276
01:03:42,680 --> 01:03:46,360
Speaker 6: and when the Newland phone call came out, people were shocked,

1277
01:03:46,840 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 6: although they shouldn't have been by her tone of voice,

1278
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 6: where she just looking at Ukraine and Dambas like a chessboard.

1279
01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:57,400
Speaker 4: Right right, and because our media sucks.

1280
01:03:57,440 --> 01:04:00,480
Speaker 5: Like the thing that made a ton of news out

1281
01:04:00,480 --> 01:04:04,080
Speaker 5: of that call, which presumably was intercepted by Russia by

1282
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:06,440
Speaker 5: the way, and then and it leaked, was when she

1283
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:08,600
Speaker 5: said f the EU. It's like, do we want to

1284
01:04:08,600 --> 01:04:09,800
Speaker 5: go to the who? Do we want to go to?

1285
01:04:09,840 --> 01:04:14,200
Speaker 5: EO C euh And she's like, F the EU and

1286
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:18,120
Speaker 5: because she said it like that, and she said that

1287
01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:20,560
Speaker 5: that became the big piece of news out of it.

1288
01:04:20,600 --> 01:04:25,000
Speaker 5: And the German Chancellor said, you know, how dare she

1289
01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:29,040
Speaker 5: say that, like, you know, the EU like actually like legitimately,

1290
01:04:29,080 --> 01:04:30,720
Speaker 5: like how dare she say that? Like the EU has

1291
01:04:31,160 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 5: much more ought to have much more say over what's

1292
01:04:34,040 --> 01:04:36,840
Speaker 5: going on with regard to Ukraine than the United States

1293
01:04:36,840 --> 01:04:39,200
Speaker 5: would never setting aside the idea that either of them

1294
01:04:39,200 --> 01:04:42,400
Speaker 5: should be dictating kind of who runs who runs Ukraine.

1295
01:04:42,760 --> 01:04:46,800
Speaker 5: But I think that the the Biden, the Hunter Biden,

1296
01:04:46,920 --> 01:04:50,200
Speaker 5: the Barisma, the lobbying, the man Afford stuff, like, I

1297
01:04:50,240 --> 01:04:53,320
Speaker 5: think that's all like interesting, But I also think it's

1298
01:04:53,400 --> 01:04:56,120
Speaker 5: it's peripheral because like when you have these kind of

1299
01:04:56,160 --> 01:04:59,480
Speaker 5: global power struggles, you've got, on the one hand, the

1300
01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:04,920
Speaker 5: kind of foundational chess playing between you know, major powers

1301
01:05:04,920 --> 01:05:08,880
Speaker 5: that are driven by geopolitics between kind of the EU,

1302
01:05:09,080 --> 01:05:10,960
Speaker 5: the United States and and and Russia.

1303
01:05:11,000 --> 01:05:12,160
Speaker 4: You've got those main forces.

1304
01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:16,840
Speaker 5: Then you've got parasites that just kind of feed off

1305
01:05:16,880 --> 01:05:19,320
Speaker 5: of the host that is this, that is this thing.

1306
01:05:19,360 --> 01:05:21,720
Speaker 5: You've got people like Manaphort just they none of them

1307
01:05:21,760 --> 01:05:25,240
Speaker 5: care Hunter Biden, like they don't don't care they're just like, oh,

1308
01:05:25,400 --> 01:05:27,360
Speaker 5: there's there's a clash of interests here.

1309
01:05:27,760 --> 01:05:29,600
Speaker 4: Anytime there's a clash of interest there's.

1310
01:05:29,440 --> 01:05:31,720
Speaker 5: Gonna be money that's that's moving around, and we're going

1311
01:05:31,800 --> 01:05:34,120
Speaker 5: to try to make some of that money. And so

1312
01:05:34,240 --> 01:05:35,960
Speaker 5: you can think whatever you want to think about the

1313
01:05:36,440 --> 01:05:38,960
Speaker 5: peripheral stuff and go ahead and lock all the people

1314
01:05:39,040 --> 01:05:41,800
Speaker 5: up as far as far as I'm concerned. But the

1315
01:05:41,840 --> 01:05:48,120
Speaker 5: actual power play, the actual geopolitics under underway are what they.

1316
01:05:48,080 --> 01:05:48,600
Speaker 4: Appear to be.

1317
01:05:48,760 --> 01:05:53,520
Speaker 5: Like Victoria Newland did uh, you know, come up with

1318
01:05:53,840 --> 01:05:58,000
Speaker 5: the structure of the new Ukrainian government like she she

1319
01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:00,400
Speaker 5: like kicked around the names. This is who were who

1320
01:06:00,400 --> 01:06:01,720
Speaker 5: we should put in, this is who should be on

1321
01:06:01,760 --> 01:06:06,040
Speaker 5: the outside, And that is in fact what ended up

1322
01:06:06,080 --> 01:06:08,520
Speaker 5: happening like that, that that's that's what happened. That the

1323
01:06:08,560 --> 01:06:12,400
Speaker 5: guy that you're talking about ole tiny book is a

1324
01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:15,040
Speaker 5: is it basically a neo Nazi Like.

1325
01:06:15,200 --> 01:06:18,240
Speaker 4: McCain met with him. The Newland is propping.

1326
01:06:18,000 --> 01:06:22,200
Speaker 6: Him up there, yes, and Nazi here by the way, Like.

1327
01:06:22,240 --> 01:06:24,840
Speaker 5: I said, we sound crazy, but like no, no, like

1328
01:06:24,920 --> 01:06:28,400
Speaker 5: just just google this, just google this guy. Like it's

1329
01:06:28,400 --> 01:06:32,200
Speaker 5: a it's a hard right neo Nazi party that we

1330
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:36,280
Speaker 5: kind of pushed into power. And then Russia responded immediately

1331
01:06:36,760 --> 01:06:40,000
Speaker 5: by that that little quiet little Green Men thing where

1332
01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:42,920
Speaker 5: they sent in all these folks into Crimea and they

1333
01:06:43,000 --> 01:06:44,919
Speaker 5: just popped up and they're like, Crimea is ours now, yes,

1334
01:06:45,280 --> 01:06:49,720
Speaker 5: and uh, the new far right government was you know,

1335
01:06:49,920 --> 01:06:55,280
Speaker 5: hyper hyper nationalist, and the you know, Eastern Ukraine was

1336
01:06:55,320 --> 01:06:59,600
Speaker 5: supportive was mor Yanikovich country and more Russian speaking. This

1337
01:06:59,640 --> 01:07:02,400
Speaker 5: new far right government came in and you know, effectively,

1338
01:07:02,520 --> 01:07:07,680
Speaker 5: you know, ban speaking Russian in public, and a war

1339
01:07:07,720 --> 01:07:11,840
Speaker 5: breaks out in the Domebos in the Eastern Ukraine region,

1340
01:07:12,320 --> 01:07:14,400
Speaker 5: and ten years later, you know, here we are. So

1341
01:07:14,440 --> 01:07:18,720
Speaker 5: we go back to that guy's original point. Even if

1342
01:07:18,720 --> 01:07:23,000
Speaker 5: you take her at her own goals, Yes, like her goal.

1343
01:07:24,600 --> 01:07:26,680
Speaker 4: You can agree or disagree with it. You can think

1344
01:07:26,720 --> 01:07:28,400
Speaker 4: it's cynical, you can think it's evil, you can think

1345
01:07:28,440 --> 01:07:29,120
Speaker 4: it's you.

1346
01:07:29,040 --> 01:07:32,080
Speaker 5: Know, imperialism. It didn't it also didn't work, Nope, but

1347
01:07:32,240 --> 01:07:33,520
Speaker 5: she lost. She's losing.

1348
01:07:33,960 --> 01:07:36,840
Speaker 6: That's why I loved the Fauci comparison, because it's like

1349
01:07:36,920 --> 01:07:40,960
Speaker 6: him saying, our goal is to enhance the pathogens, to

1350
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:44,600
Speaker 6: protect us from the pathogens, stop pandemics. Yeah, exactly. So

1351
01:07:44,680 --> 01:07:47,640
Speaker 6: his goal was public health. Her goal was peace, and

1352
01:07:47,800 --> 01:07:50,080
Speaker 6: by those very standards.

1353
01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:51,480
Speaker 4: He certainly didn't stop the pandemic.

1354
01:07:51,960 --> 01:07:54,800
Speaker 5: That's the funny thing, even if you believe that it

1355
01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:56,320
Speaker 5: did not come out of the lab in Wuhan. The

1356
01:07:56,400 --> 01:08:00,000
Speaker 5: lab in Wuhan's goal was to detect a pandemic before

1357
01:08:00,200 --> 01:08:04,360
Speaker 5: it goes global. Well done, and either way it started

1358
01:08:04,400 --> 01:08:06,280
Speaker 5: either in the lab or within a couple miles of

1359
01:08:06,880 --> 01:08:07,960
Speaker 5: the lab, and they didn't stop it.

1360
01:08:08,040 --> 01:08:10,400
Speaker 6: So just a great work, all run, everyone work all around.

1361
01:08:10,520 --> 01:08:14,000
Speaker 6: Yanikovich did end up fleeing to take shelter in Russia

1362
01:08:14,120 --> 01:08:16,240
Speaker 6: after a scuttled EU deal.

1363
01:08:16,080 --> 01:08:18,360
Speaker 5: Basically, and a lot of people thought that when Russia,

1364
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:20,760
Speaker 5: when Putin came back to Kiev, he was going to

1365
01:08:20,760 --> 01:08:23,280
Speaker 5: try to put some Yanokovich or somebody like him back

1366
01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:24,519
Speaker 5: on top of a puppet government.

1367
01:08:24,640 --> 01:08:27,840
Speaker 6: And then again it's this argument about Victoria Newland by

1368
01:08:27,840 --> 01:08:31,800
Speaker 6: her own standards, and so often with US policy still

1369
01:08:31,840 --> 01:08:33,920
Speaker 6: treating everything like it's the Cold War. But even during

1370
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:36,599
Speaker 6: the Cold War, you end up pushing people who may

1371
01:08:36,640 --> 01:08:39,439
Speaker 6: have been amenable to making deals with the EU further

1372
01:08:39,479 --> 01:08:42,320
Speaker 6: into the hands of Putin, which was not your goal,

1373
01:08:42,720 --> 01:08:46,519
Speaker 6: but countertudibly to you, but intuitively to everyone else is like,

1374
01:08:46,680 --> 01:08:49,040
Speaker 6: very obviously going to be the outcomes. Sometimes I do

1375
01:08:49,120 --> 01:08:51,720
Speaker 6: have one question before we wrap to you, right, we.

1376
01:08:51,680 --> 01:08:53,320
Speaker 4: Also got to talk about her husband before we wrap,

1377
01:08:53,320 --> 01:08:53,759
Speaker 4: but go ahead.

1378
01:08:53,920 --> 01:08:57,000
Speaker 6: Yes, my question was going to be, actually, this is perfect.

1379
01:08:57,560 --> 01:09:00,960
Speaker 6: My question was going to be the CIA report New

1380
01:09:01,000 --> 01:09:04,559
Speaker 6: York Times comes out last week about the sort of deep,

1381
01:09:04,760 --> 01:09:09,200
Speaker 6: long standing CIA operations in Ukraine, which we knew about

1382
01:09:09,479 --> 01:09:12,400
Speaker 6: from other reporting. But I think this was very clearly

1383
01:09:12,520 --> 01:09:15,960
Speaker 6: a coordinated leak by people in the intelligence community to

1384
01:09:16,080 --> 01:09:19,800
Speaker 6: get the New York Times to report that the American

1385
01:09:19,880 --> 01:09:24,320
Speaker 6: intelligence community had been trying to steer the Ukrainian intelligence

1386
01:09:24,560 --> 01:09:28,200
Speaker 6: in the right direction over all these years, but Ukrainian

1387
01:09:28,240 --> 01:09:30,679
Speaker 6: intelligence just kept going rogue and doing their own thing.

1388
01:09:30,720 --> 01:09:33,080
Speaker 6: It sort of felt like a caverr ass leak. And

1389
01:09:33,120 --> 01:09:36,080
Speaker 6: then the next week Victoria Newland has gone, I'm not

1390
01:09:36,680 --> 01:09:39,439
Speaker 6: tying those together in any conspiratorial way. I'm genuinely curious

1391
01:09:39,439 --> 01:09:44,519
Speaker 6: what you think, Grian, if Victoria Newland is leaving because

1392
01:09:44,640 --> 01:09:48,439
Speaker 6: she lost clout because her argument started to look more

1393
01:09:48,439 --> 01:09:51,639
Speaker 6: obviously like it had failed. But then at the same time,

1394
01:09:51,680 --> 01:09:53,559
Speaker 6: that brings us back to Jake Sullivan and Tony Blanket

1395
01:09:53,560 --> 01:09:54,360
Speaker 6: and Joe Biden themselves.

1396
01:09:54,400 --> 01:09:59,000
Speaker 5: I mean, I would assume that she stepped aside in

1397
01:09:59,080 --> 01:10:04,559
Speaker 5: protest of her her own, you know, policy objectives, not

1398
01:10:04,560 --> 01:10:06,080
Speaker 5: not no.

1399
01:10:06,040 --> 01:10:06,920
Speaker 4: Longer carrying the day.

1400
01:10:07,720 --> 01:10:10,599
Speaker 5: I would guess that she's whatever she was arguing for

1401
01:10:11,479 --> 01:10:12,960
Speaker 5: is no longer the thing that's going to happen.

1402
01:10:13,400 --> 01:10:14,000
Speaker 4: This is not that.

1403
01:10:14,560 --> 01:10:18,000
Speaker 5: This is not the type of person who whose will

1404
01:10:18,080 --> 01:10:22,160
Speaker 5: to power just has them stepping away at any key moments,

1405
01:10:22,240 --> 01:10:25,240
Speaker 5: right So so that so that's my suspicion, and that's

1406
01:10:25,240 --> 01:10:29,200
Speaker 5: and that's why universally, people who watch this are saying

1407
01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:35,839
Speaker 5: this is likely to signal a significant strategic shift regarding

1408
01:10:35,840 --> 01:10:37,559
Speaker 5: American policy in Ukraine.

1409
01:10:37,960 --> 01:10:39,839
Speaker 6: Now, let's talk about the husband.

1410
01:10:40,040 --> 01:10:40,719
Speaker 4: Robert Kaplan.

1411
01:10:41,200 --> 01:10:43,000
Speaker 6: That's a Real Housewives quote, by the way, you should

1412
01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:45,840
Speaker 6: should we talk about the husband. It's the nine year

1413
01:10:45,840 --> 01:10:48,559
Speaker 6: anniversary of the Amsterdam dinner from the Real Housewives above,

1414
01:10:49,560 --> 01:10:50,559
Speaker 6: we didn't even celebrate.

1415
01:10:50,640 --> 01:10:52,799
Speaker 4: We should talk about the husband's talk about the husband.

1416
01:10:53,200 --> 01:11:00,320
Speaker 5: Real Housewives of Foggy Bottom. So Robert Kaplan is one

1417
01:11:00,320 --> 01:11:03,200
Speaker 5: of the leading kind of neo cons and she too

1418
01:11:03,439 --> 01:11:04,960
Speaker 5: has been in the neo cons circle.

1419
01:11:05,040 --> 01:11:06,920
Speaker 4: So it would if this was like.

1420
01:11:08,520 --> 01:11:10,640
Speaker 5: One of these marriages where the people are, you know,

1421
01:11:10,840 --> 01:11:13,760
Speaker 5: have divergent politics then who cares who she's married to,

1422
01:11:13,880 --> 01:11:18,799
Speaker 5: But like her, her politics and Robert Caplan's politics pretty

1423
01:11:18,800 --> 01:11:21,960
Speaker 5: clearly overlapped. Now we don't have as much public writing,

1424
01:11:22,439 --> 01:11:26,280
Speaker 5: you know, from Newland because she's been an internal operator basically.

1425
01:11:25,960 --> 01:11:27,960
Speaker 4: Her her entire career.

1426
01:11:28,400 --> 01:11:30,439
Speaker 5: But we do have it from Robert Kaplan, who was

1427
01:11:31,120 --> 01:11:33,679
Speaker 5: you know, found, you know, co founder basically of the

1428
01:11:33,680 --> 01:11:35,400
Speaker 5: neoconservative movement in the nineteen nineties.

1429
01:11:35,439 --> 01:11:37,360
Speaker 4: That that that orchestrated the.

1430
01:11:37,800 --> 01:11:39,960
Speaker 5: Invasion of Iraq and the rest of the rest of

1431
01:11:40,000 --> 01:11:44,400
Speaker 5: that disastrous kind of American you know, aggressively imperial policy,

1432
01:11:44,479 --> 01:11:47,920
Speaker 5: rather than the kind of Newland attempts to do imperialism,

1433
01:11:47,960 --> 01:11:53,680
Speaker 5: which is color revolutions and manipulating behind the scenes, but

1434
01:11:53,800 --> 01:11:58,479
Speaker 5: both towards the same end, spreading democracy working great.

1435
01:11:58,600 --> 01:12:01,439
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's just synergy all just across the board. I

1436
01:12:01,439 --> 01:12:03,799
Speaker 6: actually liked the Real House was a foggy bottom reference

1437
01:12:03,880 --> 01:12:07,599
Speaker 6: because it's basically how this is operating. Not I don't

1438
01:12:07,600 --> 01:12:09,960
Speaker 6: mean that in like a sexist way, because obviously Victoria

1439
01:12:10,040 --> 01:12:12,120
Speaker 6: Newland is not a housewife, and that's sort of the

1440
01:12:12,160 --> 01:12:13,200
Speaker 6: joke about the housewives and solf.

1441
01:12:13,280 --> 01:12:14,439
Speaker 4: Now she's the brains of that family.

1442
01:12:14,960 --> 01:12:17,920
Speaker 6: I mean, but it's it's just how DC works. That's

1443
01:12:17,920 --> 01:12:23,160
Speaker 6: the swamp for you in a nutshell. All right, let's

1444
01:12:23,200 --> 01:12:26,120
Speaker 6: move on to the huge news out of Arizona. Kirsten

1445
01:12:26,280 --> 01:12:30,960
Speaker 6: Cinema shocked the political world yesterday by announcing she was

1446
01:12:31,000 --> 01:12:34,640
Speaker 6: stepping down. She was retiring. I think we have some

1447
01:12:34,800 --> 01:12:38,000
Speaker 6: video that we can roll of Kirsten Cinema queued up.

1448
01:12:38,040 --> 01:12:42,080
Speaker 6: She gave a what sounded sort of conspicuously like a

1449
01:12:42,400 --> 01:12:45,080
Speaker 6: Nobel no Labels thing, but she's also said that she

1450
01:12:45,520 --> 01:12:48,120
Speaker 6: is not interested in the no labels ticket. Just listen

1451
01:12:48,200 --> 01:12:50,280
Speaker 6: to what Kirsten Cinema said in this video.

1452
01:12:50,720 --> 01:12:53,480
Speaker 12: The only political victories that matter these days are symbolic

1453
01:12:53,960 --> 01:12:57,960
Speaker 12: attacking your opponents on cable news or social media. Compromise

1454
01:12:58,160 --> 01:13:02,519
Speaker 12: is a dirty word. We've arrived at that crossroad and

1455
01:13:02,520 --> 01:13:06,519
Speaker 12: we chose anger and division. I believe in my approach,

1456
01:13:07,240 --> 01:13:10,479
Speaker 12: but it's not what America wants right now. I love

1457
01:13:10,600 --> 01:13:13,479
Speaker 12: Arizona and I am so proud of what we've delivered

1458
01:13:14,439 --> 01:13:19,400
Speaker 12: because I choose civility, understanding, listening, working together to get

1459
01:13:19,400 --> 01:13:22,160
Speaker 12: stuff done. I will leave the Senate at the end

1460
01:13:22,200 --> 01:13:22,720
Speaker 12: of this year.

1461
01:13:23,600 --> 01:13:26,120
Speaker 5: So she didn't want to run against Kerry lakeron Yeah

1462
01:13:26,160 --> 01:13:29,360
Speaker 5: and So polls half her under ten percent in the election.

1463
01:13:30,200 --> 01:13:33,840
Speaker 5: Reuben Diego said that he would challenge her if she

1464
01:13:33,880 --> 01:13:37,559
Speaker 5: didn't support Biden's kind of domestic policy agenda. She thwarted

1465
01:13:37,800 --> 01:13:41,599
Speaker 5: Biden's domestic pologies agenda, so Diego did jump into the race.

1466
01:13:41,640 --> 01:13:43,320
Speaker 4: Diego is a couple points.

1467
01:13:43,040 --> 01:13:46,519
Speaker 5: Behind Lake and Poles, I think in general, but with

1468
01:13:46,840 --> 01:13:50,639
Speaker 5: Cinema gobbling up single digits but non trivial single digits,

1469
01:13:50,800 --> 01:13:52,400
Speaker 5: that was making it a tough race for him.

1470
01:13:52,439 --> 01:13:54,960
Speaker 6: Probably not a ton of carry Lake and Kirson.

1471
01:13:54,720 --> 01:13:58,920
Speaker 5: Cinema CRUs no, but a lot of Cinema and Diego

1472
01:13:59,280 --> 01:14:00,320
Speaker 5: crossover vote or so.

1473
01:14:00,400 --> 01:14:02,280
Speaker 6: She was an independent technically, but.

1474
01:14:02,880 --> 01:14:04,759
Speaker 4: Right last, right exactly.

1475
01:14:04,760 --> 01:14:07,720
Speaker 5: But I think that this makes Diego, you know, if

1476
01:14:07,720 --> 01:14:12,080
Speaker 5: we were doing the counterpoints needle and lean them at

1477
01:14:12,080 --> 01:14:15,000
Speaker 5: this point in the in the Arizona Senate race, as

1478
01:14:15,040 --> 01:14:17,200
Speaker 5: a result of her dropping out of this, you know,

1479
01:14:17,240 --> 01:14:21,120
Speaker 5: the thing that might have been kind of peak Kirsten

1480
01:14:21,160 --> 01:14:24,920
Speaker 5: Cinema came during the fifteen dollars a minimum wage vote,

1481
01:14:25,479 --> 01:14:27,640
Speaker 5: and if we can play this here, I think what

1482
01:14:27,720 --> 01:14:29,880
Speaker 5: drove people nuts is that here she is coming out

1483
01:14:29,880 --> 01:14:33,280
Speaker 5: on the Senate floor in her just gen X costume

1484
01:14:35,280 --> 01:14:38,840
Speaker 5: and giving the thumbs down like this, like kind of

1485
01:14:38,960 --> 01:14:43,080
Speaker 5: enthusiastic thumbs down to a fifteen dollars an hour minimum wage.

1486
01:14:43,920 --> 01:14:47,840
Speaker 5: I asked somebody on Twitter when that happened to come

1487
01:14:47,920 --> 01:14:49,880
Speaker 5: up with a nice edit of it with the four

1488
01:14:49,920 --> 01:14:51,200
Speaker 5: non Blonde What's Up song?

1489
01:14:51,360 --> 01:14:52,439
Speaker 4: Yes, it's so good.

1490
01:14:52,760 --> 01:14:54,479
Speaker 5: We're not going to play it here because we don't

1491
01:14:54,520 --> 01:14:57,559
Speaker 5: want this video to get taken down because they want

1492
01:14:57,560 --> 01:14:59,479
Speaker 5: to hide the truth from you that that was. That

1493
01:14:59,520 --> 01:15:02,200
Speaker 5: was a four Bland's moment right there. It's just so

1494
01:15:02,240 --> 01:15:06,080
Speaker 5: incredible to see. You know, these these are the leading

1495
01:15:06,280 --> 01:15:07,959
Speaker 5: lights of my generation.

1496
01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:10,599
Speaker 6: It's the two sides of the gen X coin, right,

1497
01:15:10,680 --> 01:15:13,040
Speaker 6: Like you either end up being Ryan Grimmer Custon Cinema.

1498
01:15:13,120 --> 01:15:18,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, so she started out like me, basically like a

1499
01:15:18,479 --> 01:15:20,280
Speaker 5: fringe anti war protest weak in.

1500
01:15:20,680 --> 01:15:23,559
Speaker 4: Yeah. She was. She was working with Code Pink.

1501
01:15:24,200 --> 01:15:29,040
Speaker 5: She went she protested the two thousand and four convention

1502
01:15:29,800 --> 01:15:33,120
Speaker 5: either whichever whichever convention was down in Miami.

1503
01:15:33,200 --> 01:15:36,120
Speaker 4: She was. She was out there in the streets protesting it.

1504
01:15:36,880 --> 01:15:39,680
Speaker 5: She was elected as a basically a progressive in the

1505
01:15:40,160 --> 01:15:43,400
Speaker 5: in the in the Arizona legislature and then she was

1506
01:15:43,600 --> 01:15:46,600
Speaker 5: just on grease skids from from left to right. She

1507
01:15:46,720 --> 01:15:51,599
Speaker 5: was elected to the House, still somewhat normy dem gets.

1508
01:15:51,720 --> 01:15:55,200
Speaker 5: She wins in twenty eighteen in the Senate, fairly standard

1509
01:15:55,720 --> 01:16:00,800
Speaker 5: Democratic line at that point, but very quickly became kind

1510
01:16:00,840 --> 01:16:04,200
Speaker 5: of the biggest thorn in the left side. If she wanted,

1511
01:16:04,960 --> 01:16:07,880
Speaker 5: she could have held that seat, you know, indefinitely. You no,

1512
01:16:08,080 --> 01:16:12,320
Speaker 5: she it was hers. It'll be interesting to see where

1513
01:16:12,760 --> 01:16:17,320
Speaker 5: where her corporate payout comes from. I think speaches will

1514
01:16:17,320 --> 01:16:19,760
Speaker 5: be lucrative for her, Like she can show up at

1515
01:16:19,760 --> 01:16:23,439
Speaker 5: associations and get twenty thirty grand of pop just to like,

1516
01:16:24,080 --> 01:16:25,880
Speaker 5: maybe even more than that, you know, to speak to

1517
01:16:25,960 --> 01:16:28,960
Speaker 5: like the dental Association, so that they can like say, like,

1518
01:16:29,000 --> 01:16:32,080
Speaker 5: oh look we've got Kirsten Kirsten Cinema here. She could

1519
01:16:32,240 --> 01:16:36,519
Speaker 5: do some consulting, I think, on for some corporations, just

1520
01:16:36,560 --> 01:16:38,479
Speaker 5: so that like she could be like a rain maker

1521
01:16:38,640 --> 01:16:41,559
Speaker 5: somebody who like meets with clients and helps bring them on.

1522
01:16:41,600 --> 01:16:45,040
Speaker 5: She's very charming personally. She loves to, like, you know,

1523
01:16:45,520 --> 01:16:48,280
Speaker 5: have nice dinners, drink nice wine. She interned at a

1524
01:16:48,320 --> 01:16:52,960
Speaker 5: private equity owned vineyard winery while she was a senator.

1525
01:16:53,560 --> 01:16:56,160
Speaker 5: She likes the good life, good for her, and so

1526
01:16:56,200 --> 01:16:59,360
Speaker 5: she can get that financed. I think, and rain making

1527
01:16:59,439 --> 01:17:01,760
Speaker 5: is almost more important than kind of doing this the

1528
01:17:01,800 --> 01:17:04,800
Speaker 5: strategy like bringing in those big clients so she could

1529
01:17:04,840 --> 01:17:06,439
Speaker 5: do that. She's not gonna be able to lobby a

1530
01:17:06,439 --> 01:17:08,479
Speaker 5: lot of Democrats, that's for sure, nobody. They're not going

1531
01:17:08,520 --> 01:17:10,120
Speaker 5: to want to take her calls. But she can call

1532
01:17:10,160 --> 01:17:13,040
Speaker 5: a lot of these Republicans. I think they really they

1533
01:17:13,680 --> 01:17:14,800
Speaker 5: really like her personally.

1534
01:17:15,880 --> 01:17:18,679
Speaker 6: Yeah yeah, And it's not like Republican voters like her personally,

1535
01:17:18,720 --> 01:17:20,960
Speaker 6: but Republicans or powerful Republicans do it.

1536
01:17:21,080 --> 01:17:23,679
Speaker 4: Got their cell numbers. She knows what's going on, and I.

1537
01:17:23,560 --> 01:17:25,920
Speaker 6: Should say her committee assignments in terms of where that

1538
01:17:26,000 --> 01:17:28,680
Speaker 6: payout might come from. She was on Homeland Security, she's

1539
01:17:28,720 --> 01:17:32,280
Speaker 6: on commerce, Science and transportation, she was on appropriations. There's

1540
01:17:32,360 --> 01:17:34,960
Speaker 6: plenty of money to be made for Kirsten Cinema. Now,

1541
01:17:35,520 --> 01:17:38,679
Speaker 6: I do think that it's interesting No Labels said they're

1542
01:17:38,720 --> 01:17:41,160
Speaker 6: going to decide within the week after Super Tuesday. There

1543
01:17:41,160 --> 01:17:43,800
Speaker 6: are tons of leaks coming out of No Labels and

1544
01:17:43,840 --> 01:17:47,040
Speaker 6: places like Politico that it's an absolute disaster. Behind the scenes.

1545
01:17:47,080 --> 01:17:49,639
Speaker 6: Of course, big donors feel like they NO Labels missed

1546
01:17:49,680 --> 01:17:51,720
Speaker 6: their moment that they should have had someone jump in.

1547
01:17:51,840 --> 01:17:55,040
Speaker 6: They should have begged a Joe Manchin or Kirsten Cinema

1548
01:17:55,080 --> 01:17:58,559
Speaker 6: to jump into the right spot Larry Hogan, but they

1549
01:17:58,560 --> 01:18:02,280
Speaker 6: should have done it successfully and gotten them to jump

1550
01:18:02,280 --> 01:18:04,080
Speaker 6: into the race. Mansion obviously said he didn't want to

1551
01:18:04,120 --> 01:18:06,760
Speaker 6: be a spoiler. But Kirson Cinema is an independent. She

1552
01:18:06,840 --> 01:18:09,960
Speaker 6: actually left the Democratic Party. She came out and gave

1553
01:18:10,000 --> 01:18:14,080
Speaker 6: this address about how compromised is a dirty word. That

1554
01:18:14,320 --> 01:18:18,639
Speaker 6: is one of the great misleading lines of no labels,

1555
01:18:19,240 --> 01:18:22,360
Speaker 6: that if we just compromised more, which is a total

1556
01:18:22,400 --> 01:18:24,680
Speaker 6: code for if we just grifted more, if we just

1557
01:18:24,760 --> 01:18:29,360
Speaker 6: got those centrist members from wealthy districts to agree to

1558
01:18:29,400 --> 01:18:33,439
Speaker 6: spend more money for their friends, than everything would work out.

1559
01:18:33,479 --> 01:18:35,719
Speaker 6: It's like, that is absolutely true. We could pass tons

1560
01:18:35,720 --> 01:18:38,960
Speaker 6: of legislation if we got these populists out of Washington,

1561
01:18:39,000 --> 01:18:41,559
Speaker 6: whether they're on the left or the right. I remember

1562
01:18:41,600 --> 01:18:44,519
Speaker 6: when we had not too long ago, Sam Goodldegg and

1563
01:18:44,560 --> 01:18:47,799
Speaker 6: his colleague on the show to talk about how actually

1564
01:18:47,920 --> 01:18:50,760
Speaker 6: the wealthiest districts on the House side tend to be

1565
01:18:50,800 --> 01:18:53,600
Speaker 6: the most centrist districts and the poorest districts tend to

1566
01:18:53,640 --> 01:18:56,519
Speaker 6: be the populist districts, and that's what the no Labels

1567
01:18:56,680 --> 01:18:59,479
Speaker 6: conversation is really about. They think, of course, it all

1568
01:18:59,479 --> 01:19:01,760
Speaker 6: trickles down and helps the poor when you spend money,

1569
01:19:01,920 --> 01:19:04,760
Speaker 6: which is the argument they've been making for Ukraine, that

1570
01:19:04,800 --> 01:19:09,560
Speaker 6: we're just we're rebuilding America's industrial belt because of this

1571
01:19:10,040 --> 01:19:11,479
Speaker 6: Ukraine spending, which is also.

1572
01:19:11,320 --> 01:19:11,920
Speaker 3: Not even true.

1573
01:19:12,320 --> 01:19:12,519
Speaker 11: Yeah.

1574
01:19:12,520 --> 01:19:14,960
Speaker 5: I think Mike Williams and Sam good Older when they

1575
01:19:15,080 --> 01:19:17,879
Speaker 5: came on and talked about that report, if I remember correctly,

1576
01:19:18,360 --> 01:19:20,920
Speaker 5: and you guys watch that's so you might remember, the

1577
01:19:21,040 --> 01:19:25,480
Speaker 5: richest caucus in the country is the No Labels caucuses,

1578
01:19:25,520 --> 01:19:28,719
Speaker 5: which is the Problems No Labels sponsored the Problem Solvers Caucus.

1579
01:19:28,720 --> 01:19:29,000
Speaker 11: And so.

1580
01:19:31,120 --> 01:19:34,679
Speaker 5: This no labels theory has been tried, like Cinema tried it,

1581
01:19:34,800 --> 01:19:39,600
Speaker 5: Like said, she very closely hwed to the demands of

1582
01:19:39,640 --> 01:19:42,479
Speaker 5: the private equity industry and the way that they think

1583
01:19:42,560 --> 01:19:45,559
Speaker 5: of the Congress ought to legislate, and she.

1584
01:19:45,520 --> 01:19:46,719
Speaker 4: Wound up at like eight percent.

1585
01:19:47,320 --> 01:19:51,559
Speaker 5: Yeah, then that's actually doing better than she ought to

1586
01:19:51,560 --> 01:19:53,360
Speaker 5: have because the private equity world is less.

1587
01:19:53,160 --> 01:19:54,200
Speaker 4: Than eight percent. Yeah.

1588
01:19:55,160 --> 01:19:57,360
Speaker 6: Just while we're talking about Kristensen, m I need to

1589
01:19:57,360 --> 01:20:01,519
Speaker 6: make an important correction she was not herself Wickan. This

1590
01:20:01,560 --> 01:20:03,200
Speaker 6: is reading from in front of the show. Philip Legman,

1591
01:20:03,240 --> 01:20:06,160
Speaker 6: who wrote this article back in October twenty eighteen. He

1592
01:20:06,240 --> 01:20:08,679
Speaker 6: broke a story of and I just got to read

1593
01:20:08,720 --> 01:20:09,800
Speaker 6: the pros here.

1594
01:20:10,160 --> 01:20:10,320
Speaker 7: Rep.

1595
01:20:10,400 --> 01:20:12,800
Speaker 6: Kirston Cinema, the Democratic nominee for you a Senate, is

1596
01:20:12,840 --> 01:20:14,840
Speaker 6: not a witch, but she has been known to hang

1597
01:20:14,880 --> 01:20:17,040
Speaker 6: out with witches. It was during the height of the

1598
01:20:17,040 --> 01:20:18,400
Speaker 6: Iraq War when Cinema then afar.

1599
01:20:18,840 --> 01:20:21,360
Speaker 4: It was the nineties, man, everybody was wicked.

1600
01:20:21,040 --> 01:20:25,000
Speaker 6: Everyone was dabbling. Then a far left protest organizermered some

1601
01:20:25,120 --> 01:20:28,519
Speaker 6: in supernatural help to help stop the Iraq War. Emails

1602
01:20:28,560 --> 01:20:31,200
Speaker 6: obtained the Washington Examiner show Cinema inviting a prominent cup

1603
01:20:31,200 --> 01:20:34,280
Speaker 6: and of feminist witches in Arizona called Pagan Cluster to

1604
01:20:34,280 --> 01:20:37,320
Speaker 6: celebrate International Women's Day and protest the war in March

1605
01:20:37,360 --> 01:20:40,160
Speaker 6: of two thousand and three. The arc of Kirsten Cinema

1606
01:20:40,280 --> 01:20:40,880
Speaker 6: is that.

1607
01:20:40,840 --> 01:20:42,479
Speaker 4: She basically lived my life in the nineties.

1608
01:20:42,520 --> 01:20:44,200
Speaker 6: I was gonna say it's a fascinating arc, but I

1609
01:20:44,240 --> 01:20:48,000
Speaker 6: also feel like it's you go in one of two directions, right,

1610
01:20:48,120 --> 01:20:50,439
Speaker 6: Like you either think that and that's what drives me

1611
01:20:50,479 --> 01:20:52,679
Speaker 6: crazy about no labels. Is they spend so much money

1612
01:20:52,680 --> 01:20:57,160
Speaker 6: trying to convince normal Americans that what's super edgy is

1613
01:20:57,560 --> 01:21:02,479
Speaker 6: their idea of like compromise, and it's bullshit. It's just

1614
01:21:02,640 --> 01:21:06,599
Speaker 6: a code word for corporatism. There's nothing edgy about it.

1615
01:21:06,600 --> 01:21:12,080
Speaker 6: It's it's not like the like even the category no labels,

1616
01:21:12,080 --> 01:21:14,280
Speaker 6: even the name no labels. They're trying to make it

1617
01:21:14,320 --> 01:21:17,560
Speaker 6: sound hip and cool, even though it's basically like the

1618
01:21:17,640 --> 01:21:20,640
Speaker 6: Dad Tennis shoes of politics. Sorry that that was.

1619
01:21:22,160 --> 01:21:24,240
Speaker 4: My pet theory on on Cinnamon.

1620
01:21:24,280 --> 01:21:26,040
Speaker 5: I'd love to maybe we can get her on after

1621
01:21:26,080 --> 01:21:28,519
Speaker 5: she's no longer a senator and just put this tour.

1622
01:21:28,600 --> 01:21:29,160
Speaker 4: So I'm curious.

1623
01:21:29,800 --> 01:21:31,240
Speaker 5: I used to talk to her decent amount when she

1624
01:21:31,320 --> 01:21:33,479
Speaker 5: was in the House of Representatives before she made her

1625
01:21:33,680 --> 01:21:38,200
Speaker 5: her right wing turn. And so my pet theory is

1626
01:21:38,200 --> 01:21:42,880
Speaker 5: that the far left that she was a that she

1627
01:21:42,960 --> 01:21:45,360
Speaker 5: was a significant, like daily part of back in the

1628
01:21:45,479 --> 01:21:48,280
Speaker 5: nineties two thousands, I can testify, can be a pretty

1629
01:21:48,320 --> 01:21:53,480
Speaker 5: toxic and unpleasant place, and I wonder if she mistook

1630
01:21:53,920 --> 01:21:56,640
Speaker 5: that the top the individual toxicity that you have to

1631
01:21:56,640 --> 01:22:00,360
Speaker 5: put up with in the service of the gend of

1632
01:22:00,360 --> 01:22:04,320
Speaker 5: the mission, the common good for what the left represents

1633
01:22:04,880 --> 01:22:09,519
Speaker 5: because she has a visceral kind of personal hatred for

1634
01:22:09,680 --> 01:22:12,759
Speaker 5: the Left that really can't, as far as I believe,

1635
01:22:12,960 --> 01:22:16,200
Speaker 5: be explained any other way. She talks about, you know

1636
01:22:16,400 --> 01:22:18,080
Speaker 5: that all we want to do is like, you know,

1637
01:22:18,360 --> 01:22:21,559
Speaker 5: go after you know, each other's opponent's like, you know,

1638
01:22:21,600 --> 01:22:25,320
Speaker 5: nobody goes after anybody harder than Cinema goes after the left. Yeah,

1639
01:22:25,560 --> 01:22:30,160
Speaker 5: and there's got to be something there. Maybe she'll tell us, well,

1640
01:22:30,400 --> 01:22:32,000
Speaker 5: I'll put on my calendar a year from now, we'll

1641
01:22:32,040 --> 01:22:33,760
Speaker 5: have her on. We'll have her on, and we'll we'll

1642
01:22:33,800 --> 01:22:36,360
Speaker 5: just put her on the couch and figure out, like

1643
01:22:36,479 --> 01:22:37,160
Speaker 5: what happened.

1644
01:22:37,320 --> 01:22:38,840
Speaker 6: I think it's deeply personal.

1645
01:22:39,240 --> 01:22:41,040
Speaker 4: As the four non blondes would ask exactly.

1646
01:22:41,160 --> 01:22:43,400
Speaker 6: But I think to Kirsen, Cinema and Tulsa Gabbard, there's

1647
01:22:43,400 --> 01:22:46,639
Speaker 6: something people like that, there's something that is very personal

1648
01:22:46,640 --> 01:22:48,640
Speaker 6: because there's this feeling and I'm sure actually a lot

1649
01:22:48,680 --> 01:22:51,519
Speaker 6: of our viewers feel the party, the Democratic Party that

1650
01:22:51,560 --> 01:22:54,280
Speaker 6: you were used to supporting. It feels like if you

1651
01:22:54,320 --> 01:22:57,519
Speaker 6: look at certain issues went crazy and if you don't

1652
01:22:57,560 --> 01:23:00,360
Speaker 6: like the squad and you're still like an anti corporate,

1653
01:23:00,360 --> 01:23:02,840
Speaker 6: anti establishment democrat, you're gonna be like well, what the

1654
01:23:02,840 --> 01:23:04,679
Speaker 6: hell am I going to do? And then Kirsen suddenly

1655
01:23:04,720 --> 01:23:06,519
Speaker 6: gets some money thrown at her. She isn't in a Bennett.

1656
01:23:06,520 --> 01:23:08,479
Speaker 6: So again, I think it's both sides of the gen

1657
01:23:08,680 --> 01:23:09,720
Speaker 6: x coin representative.

1658
01:23:09,720 --> 01:23:12,519
Speaker 5: And for people curious about what I'm talking about, if

1659
01:23:12,520 --> 01:23:15,519
Speaker 5: you've ever done and let's say, organizing with the Green Party,

1660
01:23:16,120 --> 01:23:17,160
Speaker 5: you know what I'm talking about.

1661
01:23:17,240 --> 01:23:18,719
Speaker 4: If you haven't, then you don't.

1662
01:23:18,840 --> 01:23:21,400
Speaker 6: He almost sold T shirts at What's Stuck ninety nine? Fun,

1663
01:23:21,479 --> 01:23:22,200
Speaker 6: Ryan Grim.

1664
01:23:22,000 --> 01:23:24,519
Speaker 5: Fact I did sell natter T shirts at Madison Square

1665
01:23:24,520 --> 01:23:26,120
Speaker 5: Garden when he was running for office.

1666
01:23:29,040 --> 01:23:31,439
Speaker 6: All right, let's move on to the Middle East. Hesbola

1667
01:23:31,920 --> 01:23:34,439
Speaker 6: fired rockets at Israel yesterday, Ryan, do you want to

1668
01:23:34,600 --> 01:23:37,439
Speaker 6: tee up basically some of the developments that just happened

1669
01:23:37,439 --> 01:23:38,400
Speaker 6: in the last twenty four hours.

1670
01:23:38,439 --> 01:23:40,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, and we can put this first vo up.

1671
01:23:40,920 --> 01:23:46,720
Speaker 5: This is a pretty significant launching of missiles from Hesbola

1672
01:23:47,520 --> 01:23:48,200
Speaker 5: into Israel.

1673
01:23:48,400 --> 01:23:50,680
Speaker 4: This is an escalation.

1674
01:23:51,360 --> 01:23:54,479
Speaker 5: You can see the Iron Dome there intercepting most of

1675
01:23:54,479 --> 01:23:57,559
Speaker 5: these business and from what we understand, the Iron Dome

1676
01:23:58,479 --> 01:24:05,759
Speaker 5: either successfully intercepted every launch or or they fell harmlessly elsewhere.

1677
01:24:05,840 --> 01:24:08,639
Speaker 5: Like we we don't, we don't, we don't. Have word

1678
01:24:08,920 --> 01:24:10,760
Speaker 5: of any Israeli casualties.

1679
01:24:11,160 --> 01:24:11,280
Speaker 17: Uh.

1680
01:24:11,640 --> 01:24:12,799
Speaker 4: Put of this next element.

1681
01:24:13,240 --> 01:24:13,400
Speaker 8: Uh.

1682
01:24:13,600 --> 01:24:16,920
Speaker 5: The Israel says it's it's put, it's preparing how it's

1683
01:24:17,640 --> 01:24:21,840
Speaker 5: going going to respond, It's going through military options. You know,

1684
01:24:21,880 --> 01:24:25,160
Speaker 5: there has been you know, the talk of opening up

1685
01:24:25,200 --> 01:24:30,120
Speaker 5: a second front between Israel Lebanon up up in the

1686
01:24:30,160 --> 01:24:34,519
Speaker 5: north has been as much a topic of conversation in

1687
01:24:34,560 --> 01:24:37,760
Speaker 5: the Israeli media practically as as the war down in

1688
01:24:37,800 --> 01:24:41,280
Speaker 5: the south that Israel is waging against against gaz with

1689
01:24:41,920 --> 01:24:45,479
Speaker 5: the you know, it's hard. You know, basically an Israel

1690
01:24:45,520 --> 01:24:47,400
Speaker 5: in the government now you've got the far right and

1691
01:24:47,439 --> 01:24:51,800
Speaker 5: the right and so you have a strong faction that

1692
01:24:52,360 --> 01:24:56,120
Speaker 5: is is basically making the case just do it all now,

1693
01:24:56,760 --> 01:24:59,720
Speaker 5: like it's time to seize you fully sees go on

1694
01:24:59,800 --> 01:25:03,280
Speaker 5: high and and lock that down like that you're Seria,

1695
01:25:03,360 --> 01:25:03,880
Speaker 5: forget about it.

1696
01:25:03,920 --> 01:25:05,000
Speaker 4: You're never touching this again.

1697
01:25:05,520 --> 01:25:09,400
Speaker 5: And to go back into Lebanon and seize territory there

1698
01:25:09,439 --> 01:25:12,760
Speaker 5: in a buffer zone between between them and Hesbla. The

1699
01:25:13,280 --> 01:25:18,040
Speaker 5: one of the problems domestically that the Israeli population has

1700
01:25:18,080 --> 01:25:22,240
Speaker 5: been facing it has been shortage of housing, basically housing

1701
01:25:22,280 --> 01:25:26,200
Speaker 5: housing prices over the years, and that that partly explains

1702
01:25:26,680 --> 01:25:28,680
Speaker 5: all of the West Bank settlements.

1703
01:25:29,479 --> 01:25:31,280
Speaker 4: It's like, if you.

1704
01:25:31,360 --> 01:25:33,639
Speaker 5: Got nimbi over here, well, we got how about yes,

1705
01:25:33,680 --> 01:25:36,240
Speaker 5: in somebody else's backyard. So you go in and you

1706
01:25:36,320 --> 01:25:38,080
Speaker 5: and you build all these settlements and you and you

1707
01:25:38,120 --> 01:25:41,080
Speaker 5: subsidize settlers to to live there and then commute just

1708
01:25:41,080 --> 01:25:43,280
Speaker 5: to half an hour to Tel Aviv or whatever on

1709
01:25:43,360 --> 01:25:46,400
Speaker 5: these you know, just free roads that go right right through,

1710
01:25:46,439 --> 01:25:49,160
Speaker 5: whereas if you're palacinting, you can't can't drive in those roads.

1711
01:25:49,200 --> 01:25:51,360
Speaker 5: It takes six hours to get anywhere. Now you can't

1712
01:25:51,360 --> 01:25:52,120
Speaker 5: go anywhere at all.

1713
01:25:52,840 --> 01:25:53,040
Speaker 11: Uh.

1714
01:25:54,040 --> 01:25:57,559
Speaker 5: Since October seventh, a lot of a lot of Israelis

1715
01:25:57,560 --> 01:26:00,320
Speaker 5: in the north and south have kind of pushed back

1716
01:26:00,400 --> 01:26:02,760
Speaker 5: into the into the middle of the country, staying with

1717
01:26:02,840 --> 01:26:06,120
Speaker 5: friends or and otherwise like getting apartments or houses and

1718
01:26:06,680 --> 01:26:09,720
Speaker 5: further driving up the housing housing crunch there. And so

1719
01:26:10,760 --> 01:26:13,640
Speaker 5: one of the kind of one of the missions of

1720
01:26:13,640 --> 01:26:18,080
Speaker 5: the Israeli government is to push push north and south

1721
01:26:18,200 --> 01:26:20,840
Speaker 5: so that people can return to their homes there, because

1722
01:26:20,840 --> 01:26:24,400
Speaker 5: if they don't, they've got this extraordinarily difficult, you know,

1723
01:26:24,439 --> 01:26:28,840
Speaker 5: pressure cooker situation going on. Problem of course, as it

1724
01:26:28,880 --> 01:26:32,000
Speaker 5: has always been for the Israeli project is that there

1725
01:26:32,000 --> 01:26:35,759
Speaker 5: are already people there, and so working that out means

1726
01:26:35,800 --> 01:26:40,320
Speaker 5: either expelling those people or killing them. And to start

1727
01:26:40,360 --> 01:26:43,599
Speaker 5: a second front, it's sort of serious second front, let's say,

1728
01:26:43,600 --> 01:26:47,479
Speaker 5: in retaliation for for this UH when they're already at

1729
01:26:47,479 --> 01:26:50,400
Speaker 5: such a low point in global opinion and end the.

1730
01:26:50,320 --> 01:26:52,040
Speaker 4: War not going great with.

1731
01:26:53,800 --> 01:26:59,520
Speaker 5: And this this RAFA incursion expected at any point, is

1732
01:26:59,520 --> 01:27:02,960
Speaker 5: it is a moment of like uh top you know,

1733
01:27:03,040 --> 01:27:07,040
Speaker 5: heightened heightened risk because at the same time, and then

1734
01:27:07,040 --> 01:27:10,600
Speaker 5: I'll shut up. In the West Bank, you've got you know,

1735
01:27:10,720 --> 01:27:15,479
Speaker 5: complete economic meltdown from Israel withholding payments that you know,

1736
01:27:15,840 --> 01:27:20,200
Speaker 5: keeping Palestinians money from the Palestinians and banning Palestinians from

1737
01:27:20,240 --> 01:27:22,000
Speaker 5: going from the West Bank to their jobs you know

1738
01:27:22,040 --> 01:27:23,599
Speaker 5: elsewhere in Israel.

1739
01:27:23,640 --> 01:27:25,240
Speaker 4: So that's so that's a pressure cooker.

1740
01:27:25,520 --> 01:27:27,880
Speaker 5: So it's at the same time that you have net

1741
01:27:27,880 --> 01:27:31,640
Speaker 5: outward migration you know from Israel UH and and a

1742
01:27:31,640 --> 01:27:32,680
Speaker 5: collapsing economy.

1743
01:27:33,439 --> 01:27:36,160
Speaker 6: And I actually don't want you to shut up because

1744
01:27:36,200 --> 01:27:38,719
Speaker 6: I want to get your take on the fiber optic cables.

1745
01:27:38,760 --> 01:27:40,559
Speaker 6: We can put this next element up on the screen

1746
01:27:40,600 --> 01:27:43,920
Speaker 6: from Forbes. Four fiber optic cables damaged in red Sea.

1747
01:27:44,080 --> 01:27:46,320
Speaker 6: Here's what we know. That's the way Forbes put it.

1748
01:27:46,320 --> 01:27:49,200
Speaker 6: But I'm actually more curious Ryan about what you know?

1749
01:27:49,360 --> 01:27:51,560
Speaker 5: Right, these are the right. So the hohu Thies, uh,

1750
01:27:51,760 --> 01:27:54,599
Speaker 5: you know, have been saying that not only are are

1751
01:27:54,640 --> 01:27:58,720
Speaker 5: they going to you know, stop shipping through the Red Sea,

1752
01:27:59,000 --> 01:28:01,840
Speaker 5: that is, you know, headed to an Israeli port or

1753
01:28:02,400 --> 01:28:07,040
Speaker 5: a ship is associated with either Israel or the coalition

1754
01:28:07,120 --> 01:28:10,880
Speaker 5: that is arming Israel, like, so that's they're doing that,

1755
01:28:11,040 --> 01:28:13,880
Speaker 5: but there they also have you know, threatened you know,

1756
01:28:14,160 --> 01:28:18,040
Speaker 5: global infrastructures such as you know, targeting these these fiber

1757
01:28:18,040 --> 01:28:21,400
Speaker 5: optic cables. We talked earlier in the program about the

1758
01:28:21,560 --> 01:28:23,920
Speaker 5: blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline, kind of breaking the

1759
01:28:24,000 --> 01:28:28,599
Speaker 5: seal on the idea that you know, countries as part

1760
01:28:28,640 --> 01:28:32,040
Speaker 5: of their geopolitics are going to go around and destroy

1761
01:28:32,160 --> 01:28:36,160
Speaker 5: massive pieces of civilian infrastructure that connect you know, that

1762
01:28:36,200 --> 01:28:37,240
Speaker 5: connect countries together.

1763
01:28:38,400 --> 01:28:38,599
Speaker 4: You know.

1764
01:28:39,880 --> 01:28:43,040
Speaker 5: So the Red Sea blockade is driving up is driving

1765
01:28:43,120 --> 01:28:47,360
Speaker 5: the Israeli economy into the ground like massively, It's hurting

1766
01:28:47,360 --> 01:28:53,400
Speaker 5: the European economy significantly. It's driving up prices somewhat.

1767
01:28:52,960 --> 01:28:56,160
Speaker 4: Here like it is it is a contributor to inflation.

1768
01:28:56,240 --> 01:28:58,920
Speaker 5: But not as much as it you know, will be

1769
01:28:59,000 --> 01:29:01,720
Speaker 5: as if it if it can continues on. But this is, yes,

1770
01:29:02,439 --> 01:29:10,000
Speaker 5: another another escalation here, all four just the continuation of

1771
01:29:10,040 --> 01:29:13,040
Speaker 5: a war that the entire world just wants to see

1772
01:29:13,080 --> 01:29:13,679
Speaker 5: Israel stop.

1773
01:29:14,720 --> 01:29:17,120
Speaker 6: And you tease this earlier in the show. But the

1774
01:29:17,160 --> 01:29:20,000
Speaker 6: next element here's from a report from Pablo Manricez, who

1775
01:29:20,040 --> 01:29:22,800
Speaker 6: says a source familiar with the speaker's priorities, So Speaker

1776
01:29:22,880 --> 01:29:25,240
Speaker 6: Mike Johnson, we can confirm continue to be a real

1777
01:29:25,280 --> 01:29:29,360
Speaker 6: person his priorities this week tells Uh told Mike Johnson

1778
01:29:29,400 --> 01:29:34,000
Speaker 6: that he is too busy to meet with Benny Gant.

1779
01:29:34,120 --> 01:29:39,599
Speaker 6: Now Benny Gantz is Israel's Minister of Defense. That is right.

1780
01:29:39,600 --> 01:29:41,439
Speaker 5: He met with some right, he met with members of

1781
01:29:41,439 --> 01:29:43,360
Speaker 5: the House for Him Faires Committee. So he's here in

1782
01:29:43,360 --> 01:29:46,920
Speaker 5: the United States genning up support for Israel's war effort.

1783
01:29:47,720 --> 01:29:50,160
Speaker 5: There is a famous quote. I forget which Israeli Prime

1784
01:29:50,200 --> 01:29:53,400
Speaker 5: minister said it, but I think it was about George W.

1785
01:29:53,560 --> 01:29:53,800
Speaker 4: Bush.

1786
01:29:54,120 --> 01:29:55,680
Speaker 5: He was like, look, I wanted to get Bush on

1787
01:29:55,720 --> 01:29:58,320
Speaker 5: the phone. They told me he's giving a speech in Philadelphia.

1788
01:29:59,040 --> 01:30:00,800
Speaker 5: He's like, I don't care what the President's doing.

1789
01:30:00,840 --> 01:30:01,599
Speaker 4: I want to talk to him.

1790
01:30:01,640 --> 01:30:04,360
Speaker 5: Now and they went on stage, pulled the President of

1791
01:30:04,400 --> 01:30:06,120
Speaker 5: the United States off the stage and put him on

1792
01:30:06,160 --> 01:30:09,000
Speaker 5: the phone with the Israeli Prime Minister. And his point was,

1793
01:30:09,560 --> 01:30:12,320
Speaker 5: that is the access that we have to American corridors

1794
01:30:12,360 --> 01:30:16,760
Speaker 5: of power at the very top. Now Bennigants at the

1795
01:30:16,840 --> 01:30:19,960
Speaker 5: height of his war can't get a meeting with the

1796
01:30:20,000 --> 01:30:21,400
Speaker 5: Speaker of the House of Representative.

1797
01:30:21,400 --> 01:30:23,920
Speaker 6: It's pretty interesting, long time supporter of Israel.

1798
01:30:23,600 --> 01:30:28,360
Speaker 5: Too, right, And this is after the APAK has made

1799
01:30:28,840 --> 01:30:34,320
Speaker 5: this strategic decision to wage war with significant elements of

1800
01:30:34,479 --> 01:30:39,479
Speaker 5: the Democratic Coalition, go after they've men in California, even

1801
01:30:39,479 --> 01:30:42,360
Speaker 5: though he's not even that critical of Israel, just because

1802
01:30:42,400 --> 01:30:45,240
Speaker 5: it seems like they prefer a Republican if you have

1803
01:30:45,880 --> 01:30:47,920
Speaker 5: if you have a Democrat and a Republican and both

1804
01:30:47,960 --> 01:30:49,520
Speaker 5: of them are supportive of Israel.

1805
01:30:49,880 --> 01:30:51,040
Speaker 4: APAC used to stay out of that.

1806
01:30:51,280 --> 01:30:53,519
Speaker 5: Now it is Dave min Race that's breaking a new

1807
01:30:53,560 --> 01:30:56,320
Speaker 5: steal of being a kind of almost hyper part as

1808
01:30:56,320 --> 01:30:59,599
Speaker 5: an organization. Even as they continue to support Hakeem Jeffery

1809
01:31:00,400 --> 01:31:03,400
Speaker 5: Standi Hoyer. You know Democratic, they still have tight relationships

1810
01:31:03,439 --> 01:31:06,360
Speaker 5: with Democratic leadership. They're really putting all their eggs in

1811
01:31:06,760 --> 01:31:09,719
Speaker 5: the GOP basket, while the GOP is putting its eggs

1812
01:31:09,760 --> 01:31:12,720
Speaker 5: in the mega basket and the MAGA and a pack

1813
01:31:13,600 --> 01:31:17,960
Speaker 5: might not be the most long lasting relationship for I

1814
01:31:18,000 --> 01:31:19,320
Speaker 5: think pretty obvious reasons.

1815
01:31:19,560 --> 01:31:23,160
Speaker 6: And you know, I know, shutdown coverage gets repetitive because

1816
01:31:23,200 --> 01:31:25,000
Speaker 6: it is and it feels like we're all just in

1817
01:31:25,080 --> 01:31:27,960
Speaker 6: a holding pattern. But the government is set to shut

1818
01:31:28,040 --> 01:31:30,599
Speaker 6: down on Saturday if the House of Representatives doesn't pass

1819
01:31:30,600 --> 01:31:33,920
Speaker 6: spending bills. So Mike Johnson genuinely may have been it's

1820
01:31:33,960 --> 01:31:37,320
Speaker 6: possible too busy to meet with Benny Gantz, although Ryan

1821
01:31:37,400 --> 01:31:40,240
Speaker 6: and your book writes your book shows us about Democrats,

1822
01:31:40,280 --> 01:31:43,080
Speaker 6: but even with Republicans. Of course, with Republicans, basically you

1823
01:31:43,160 --> 01:31:45,200
Speaker 6: clear your schedule if you need to talk with is

1824
01:31:45,920 --> 01:31:49,719
Speaker 6: the Israeli Minister of Defense. But Mike Johnson is hurtling

1825
01:31:49,760 --> 01:31:52,160
Speaker 6: towards a shutdown, and part of that is because there's

1826
01:31:52,240 --> 01:31:55,600
Speaker 6: disagreement on Ukraine funding, which Democrats and centrist Republicans have

1827
01:31:55,800 --> 01:32:00,320
Speaker 6: insisted on tying to Israel funding. And so john is

1828
01:32:00,439 --> 01:32:04,040
Speaker 6: now the bill the sort of two tiered mini bus.

1829
01:32:04,240 --> 01:32:06,040
Speaker 6: You know, the Republicans said we're not going to govern

1830
01:32:06,080 --> 01:32:09,080
Speaker 6: by omnibus anymore. They've continued to govern by omnibus. So

1831
01:32:09,160 --> 01:32:12,240
Speaker 6: now Mike Johnson's plan was to try to not trick

1832
01:32:12,280 --> 01:32:14,639
Speaker 6: the Freedom Caucus but appease the Freedom Caucus by saying

1833
01:32:14,640 --> 01:32:17,080
Speaker 6: we're going to do two tiers, so two minibuses. They

1834
01:32:17,160 --> 01:32:21,200
Speaker 6: released the text of those. The Freedom Caucus is wildly

1835
01:32:21,280 --> 01:32:24,240
Speaker 6: unhappy with it. Ukraine and Israel funding is on the

1836
01:32:24,400 --> 01:32:30,360
Speaker 6: table because the government is hurtling towards potential shutdown if

1837
01:32:30,400 --> 01:32:33,360
Speaker 6: there isn't a deal agreed to. Freedom Caucus doesn't have

1838
01:32:33,400 --> 01:32:36,320
Speaker 6: a lot of incentive because they represent districts that don't

1839
01:32:36,320 --> 01:32:39,439
Speaker 6: care if the government shuts down. And normally that's okay,

1840
01:32:39,560 --> 01:32:42,560
Speaker 6: but Mike Johnson has such a thin margin that not

1841
01:32:42,720 --> 01:32:45,400
Speaker 6: only could the government shutdown, but then he could be

1842
01:32:45,760 --> 01:32:49,560
Speaker 6: vacated from his chair. So he may genuinely not have

1843
01:32:49,640 --> 01:32:51,160
Speaker 6: a lot of time to meet with Benny Gantz. But

1844
01:32:51,280 --> 01:32:52,960
Speaker 6: you know why Benny Gantz wanted to meet with him,

1845
01:32:53,040 --> 01:32:55,200
Speaker 6: and that's because the Ukraine and Israel funding has been

1846
01:32:55,280 --> 01:32:58,000
Speaker 6: tied together, and that in and of itself is tied

1847
01:32:58,040 --> 01:32:59,320
Speaker 6: to this shutdown conversation.

1848
01:33:00,200 --> 01:33:04,080
Speaker 5: And I'm curious where you think some of this skepticism

1849
01:33:04,360 --> 01:33:07,880
Speaker 5: of Israel is coming from from the magaside is it

1850
01:33:08,479 --> 01:33:11,320
Speaker 5: is it the isolationism? Is it some of the you know,

1851
01:33:11,400 --> 01:33:14,000
Speaker 5: there's some there's some genuine anti Semitism out there among

1852
01:33:14,120 --> 01:33:17,640
Speaker 5: some in the base, or is it?

1853
01:33:18,160 --> 01:33:19,200
Speaker 4: Is it something else?

1854
01:33:19,560 --> 01:33:19,600
Speaker 17: Like?

1855
01:33:19,720 --> 01:33:20,200
Speaker 18: What is.

1856
01:33:22,000 --> 01:33:23,040
Speaker 4: What's going on here?

1857
01:33:23,200 --> 01:33:25,639
Speaker 5: Like how you know you're normally the Republican House speaker

1858
01:33:26,400 --> 01:33:28,479
Speaker 5: is going to take any call, take any meeting from

1859
01:33:29,120 --> 01:33:31,240
Speaker 5: from an Israeli official who's here in the United States.

1860
01:33:31,880 --> 01:33:35,559
Speaker 4: To not do that is seismic. Uh, what's your what's

1861
01:33:35,560 --> 01:33:35,920
Speaker 4: your read?

1862
01:33:36,280 --> 01:33:38,800
Speaker 6: You know, there's a lot of opposition in Israel among

1863
01:33:38,880 --> 01:33:41,599
Speaker 6: young Democrats obviously, as we've covered many times on the show.

1864
01:33:41,600 --> 01:33:44,439
Speaker 6: I mean, you can't really overstate that. But Israel still

1865
01:33:44,520 --> 01:33:48,719
Speaker 6: polls relatively well in the whole country. Now, polling is different.

1866
01:33:48,760 --> 01:33:50,519
Speaker 6: It depends on what questions you're asking, It depends on

1867
01:33:50,600 --> 01:33:54,400
Speaker 6: how you're asking the questions. But Republican voters in general

1868
01:33:54,560 --> 01:33:59,320
Speaker 6: are supportive of Israel. That said, I've seen cracks and

1869
01:33:59,560 --> 01:34:01,800
Speaker 6: that found as I'm sure many people have, and you

1870
01:34:01,960 --> 01:34:04,960
Speaker 6: especially hear that from sort of the hardcore magawing and

1871
01:34:05,200 --> 01:34:08,320
Speaker 6: usually when you see that rhetoric, at least in my experience,

1872
01:34:08,439 --> 01:34:13,920
Speaker 6: it's been tied to domestic affairs. So basically the line

1873
01:34:13,960 --> 01:34:16,880
Speaker 6: that we have so many problems here, we have so

1874
01:34:17,000 --> 01:34:19,599
Speaker 6: many people struggling to get by here, And actually used

1875
01:34:19,600 --> 01:34:22,240
Speaker 6: to hear that a lot from the left. You've heard

1876
01:34:22,280 --> 01:34:24,840
Speaker 6: it from both left and right. Isolation of swings over

1877
01:34:24,840 --> 01:34:27,200
Speaker 6: the course of American history. It's not a new argument,

1878
01:34:27,520 --> 01:34:30,559
Speaker 6: but it does seem like it's gaining traction, especially now

1879
01:34:30,640 --> 01:34:34,160
Speaker 6: that the Ukrainian Israel funding is tied together. It's just

1880
01:34:34,439 --> 01:34:37,120
Speaker 6: the same thing with Ukraine. You know, we're spending billions

1881
01:34:37,160 --> 01:34:40,200
Speaker 6: of dollars on this war that doesn't directly affect the

1882
01:34:40,240 --> 01:34:42,920
Speaker 6: everyday lives of your average, every day life of your

1883
01:34:42,960 --> 01:34:45,920
Speaker 6: average American as people see it. So it gets harder

1884
01:34:45,960 --> 01:34:49,120
Speaker 6: to sell foreign conflicts when people feel like they're being

1885
01:34:49,240 --> 01:34:51,439
Speaker 6: left behind in their own country. And a lot of

1886
01:34:51,439 --> 01:34:54,680
Speaker 6: those people are voting Republican now. So I don't think

1887
01:34:54,720 --> 01:34:56,840
Speaker 6: it's huge, but I do think it exists, and I

1888
01:34:56,880 --> 01:34:57,919
Speaker 6: think it's growing.

1889
01:34:58,400 --> 01:35:01,960
Speaker 5: I also saw I think I think it was certain

1890
01:35:02,000 --> 01:35:04,280
Speaker 5: of Mike Cernovich that was talking about this. I'm curious

1891
01:35:04,320 --> 01:35:05,880
Speaker 5: that how much attraction is on the right for this.

1892
01:35:06,000 --> 01:35:11,559
Speaker 5: I saw some criticism of Israel connected to both its

1893
01:35:12,080 --> 01:35:16,560
Speaker 5: attempted expulsion of a lot of Armenian Christians from the

1894
01:35:16,680 --> 01:35:20,040
Speaker 5: Armenian Quarter who they have been there for thousands of

1895
01:35:20,200 --> 01:35:23,479
Speaker 5: years continuously, not this like you know, we were here

1896
01:35:23,560 --> 01:35:27,160
Speaker 5: twenty twenty five hundred years ago and then no, YadA, YadA, YadA,

1897
01:35:27,320 --> 01:35:30,680
Speaker 5: we're back. It's like no, the the Armenian Quarter has

1898
01:35:30,680 --> 01:35:34,320
Speaker 5: been the Armenian Quarter like practically since the beginning of

1899
01:35:34,439 --> 01:35:36,320
Speaker 5: time all.

1900
01:35:36,439 --> 01:35:37,480
Speaker 4: And then also.

1901
01:35:39,040 --> 01:35:43,679
Speaker 5: That you know, Israel was arming and equipping a basic

1902
01:35:43,760 --> 01:35:48,840
Speaker 5: ethnic cleansing against Armenian Christians and Nigorno Karabak.

1903
01:35:49,040 --> 01:35:53,120
Speaker 6: So that's become and that's also become almost a similar

1904
01:35:53,160 --> 01:35:57,160
Speaker 6: in the Ukraine War that if you know, you have

1905
01:35:57,400 --> 01:36:02,479
Speaker 6: the expulsion of Armenian Christians from there, and you know

1906
01:36:02,600 --> 01:36:05,000
Speaker 6: you have the sort of a Aris on one side,

1907
01:36:05,120 --> 01:36:07,479
Speaker 6: the Russians on one side, and you feel like a

1908
01:36:07,520 --> 01:36:09,880
Speaker 6: lot of Americans, I think Tucker has talked about this before.

1909
01:36:09,920 --> 01:36:12,600
Speaker 6: Tucker Cross has talked about this before. It looks like

1910
01:36:13,160 --> 01:36:19,120
Speaker 6: we're protecting foreign interests over like this. This a weird

1911
01:36:19,200 --> 01:36:22,960
Speaker 6: prioritization of different foreign interests in a way that a

1912
01:36:23,000 --> 01:36:26,240
Speaker 6: lot of Americans, this was the argument, would be upset

1913
01:36:26,520 --> 01:36:28,920
Speaker 6: to if the media covered it and to see what

1914
01:36:29,040 --> 01:36:31,200
Speaker 6: had happened to the Armenian Christians.

1915
01:36:30,920 --> 01:36:34,680
Speaker 5: And uh yeah, like that's people want a background on that.

1916
01:36:34,720 --> 01:36:37,120
Speaker 5: I did a deconstructed episode on that maybe six months

1917
01:36:37,760 --> 01:36:40,960
Speaker 5: or a year ago. Just google like deconstructed Niguano Kira

1918
01:36:41,000 --> 01:36:43,200
Speaker 5: back and you'll get that'll give you the whole background

1919
01:36:43,200 --> 01:36:48,040
Speaker 5: of this really fascinating and disturbing situation that is Israel

1920
01:36:48,200 --> 01:36:51,080
Speaker 5: Is played a key role in arming and equipping the

1921
01:36:51,800 --> 01:36:53,719
Speaker 5: kind of the bad guys in this story.

1922
01:36:53,880 --> 01:36:57,759
Speaker 6: Yeah, the Nigora careback thing has gotten, it's.

1923
01:36:57,640 --> 01:36:59,080
Speaker 4: Gotten starting to get some tractions.

1924
01:36:59,160 --> 01:37:01,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, absolutely, and you're starting to hear people talk about it,

1925
01:37:02,560 --> 01:37:06,240
Speaker 6: and I think specifically because of Ukraine, but the Armenian

1926
01:37:06,320 --> 01:37:09,960
Speaker 6: Christian Quarter in Jerusalem. You combine those two things, it

1927
01:37:10,000 --> 01:37:12,479
Speaker 6: could get more and more traction. I haven't seen the

1928
01:37:12,560 --> 01:37:15,439
Speaker 6: damn break yet. But again, when people feel like domestically

1929
01:37:15,439 --> 01:37:17,840
Speaker 6: they're getting screwed over and over again, that's those arguments

1930
01:37:17,920 --> 01:37:18,919
Speaker 6: get very very powerful.

1931
01:37:19,080 --> 01:37:22,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I wouldn't I wouldn't feel too bad for

1932
01:37:23,000 --> 01:37:25,920
Speaker 5: Israeli strategists who who who blew it on this one,

1933
01:37:26,320 --> 01:37:30,559
Speaker 5: because their entire kind of thinking was, oh, let's let's

1934
01:37:30,640 --> 01:37:34,439
Speaker 5: team up with these Christian Zionists because they they seem

1935
01:37:34,520 --> 01:37:37,559
Speaker 5: to believe that, you know, they need to support Israel

1936
01:37:37,680 --> 01:37:39,800
Speaker 5: because we're somehow going to bring about a second Coming

1937
01:37:40,080 --> 01:37:44,360
Speaker 5: through our own annihilation. Yeah, that that'll be a good like,

1938
01:37:44,479 --> 01:37:48,120
Speaker 5: that'll be a well thought out alliance they had they had.

1939
01:37:48,320 --> 01:37:51,240
Speaker 5: I forget, who's who's that crazy guy who spoke at

1940
01:37:51,280 --> 01:37:53,920
Speaker 5: the the the march for Israel or.

1941
01:37:54,000 --> 01:37:55,439
Speaker 6: I don't even know his name and I'm in a

1942
01:37:55,840 --> 01:37:57,200
Speaker 6: White Evangelicals.

1943
01:37:57,360 --> 01:38:02,280
Speaker 5: He's an He's an abject anti Semitic lunatic. Yeah, and

1944
01:38:02,360 --> 01:38:05,400
Speaker 5: they and they hitched their wagon to them, right, so

1945
01:38:05,760 --> 01:38:08,000
Speaker 5: if that wagon goes off the cliff, that they really

1946
01:38:08,080 --> 01:38:09,200
Speaker 5: only have themselves to blame.

1947
01:38:09,560 --> 01:38:13,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, yes, And I maintain that that's you know, there

1948
01:38:13,040 --> 01:38:15,160
Speaker 6: are some really big voices in that space. I don't

1949
01:38:15,200 --> 01:38:18,280
Speaker 6: think a lot of I don't know broadly, I don't

1950
01:38:18,280 --> 01:38:20,320
Speaker 6: think it has a ton of clout in the movement anymore.

1951
01:38:20,320 --> 01:38:22,479
Speaker 6: It was I feel like I heard a lot about

1952
01:38:22,479 --> 01:38:23,280
Speaker 6: it's more of the origin.

1953
01:38:23,400 --> 01:38:25,880
Speaker 3: Then it's kind of like people like, oh, really, what's

1954
01:38:25,920 --> 01:38:26,200
Speaker 3: going on.

1955
01:38:27,560 --> 01:38:30,400
Speaker 6: But obviously a lot of Christians do feel very tied

1956
01:38:30,439 --> 01:38:33,920
Speaker 6: to that land, and you feel like it's important for

1957
01:38:33,960 --> 01:38:38,080
Speaker 6: America to be involved in protecting it and keeping it safe.

1958
01:38:38,120 --> 01:38:39,799
Speaker 6: And that you know, these people are support Israel.

1959
01:38:39,880 --> 01:38:42,880
Speaker 5: But the other reason that they felt like they had

1960
01:38:42,920 --> 01:38:45,839
Speaker 5: a good alliance there was there was this islamophobic overlap

1961
01:38:46,200 --> 01:38:50,559
Speaker 5: between between It's they're like, hey, the enemy of enemy

1962
01:38:50,600 --> 01:38:51,719
Speaker 5: of my enemy is my friend.

1963
01:38:52,280 --> 01:38:53,360
Speaker 4: But if you link up.

1964
01:38:54,880 --> 01:38:59,000
Speaker 5: With another religious group because that religious group is bigoted

1965
01:38:59,040 --> 01:39:01,760
Speaker 5: towards other religious groups, don't be shocked when they turn

1966
01:39:01,800 --> 01:39:02,439
Speaker 5: on you next.

1967
01:39:02,920 --> 01:39:07,400
Speaker 6: It's a crazy tangled set of different interests. That does

1968
01:39:07,439 --> 01:39:09,920
Speaker 6: it for us on today's edition of Counterpoints. But don't

1969
01:39:09,960 --> 01:39:12,720
Speaker 6: worry because we'll be back on the channel tomorrow for

1970
01:39:12,880 --> 01:39:14,719
Speaker 6: the State of the Unions tomorrow.

1971
01:39:14,760 --> 01:39:16,760
Speaker 4: Goodness, I know it's tomorrow.

1972
01:39:16,840 --> 01:39:18,000
Speaker 6: The City of the Union. This is one of the

1973
01:39:18,040 --> 01:39:20,120
Speaker 6: biggest news weeks of the year. The City of the

1974
01:39:20,200 --> 01:39:22,360
Speaker 6: Union is going to The pre show is going to

1975
01:39:22,400 --> 01:39:24,240
Speaker 6: start at eight thirty. The State of the Union starts

1976
01:39:24,320 --> 01:39:27,639
Speaker 6: at nine pm. We will be back at ten thirty

1977
01:39:27,720 --> 01:39:31,720
Speaker 6: or I'm sorry, at ten pm taking questions from premium subscribers.

1978
01:39:31,800 --> 01:39:34,360
Speaker 6: So now's your chance to become a premium subscriber. You

1979
01:39:34,439 --> 01:39:38,560
Speaker 6: get the full Counterpoint show totally uncut. You get to

1980
01:39:38,600 --> 01:39:40,559
Speaker 6: see all of the segments as opposed to the few

1981
01:39:40,560 --> 01:39:42,680
Speaker 6: weeks is to put up on YouTube, So if you're

1982
01:39:42,720 --> 01:39:45,639
Speaker 6: not a premium subscriber, we certainly would appreciate and hope

1983
01:39:45,640 --> 01:39:49,439
Speaker 6: that we provide enough premium content behind the scenes. I

1984
01:39:49,479 --> 01:39:51,360
Speaker 6: think questions are going to be super fun tomorrow after

1985
01:39:51,400 --> 01:39:52,040
Speaker 6: the Day of the Union.

1986
01:39:52,439 --> 01:39:54,120
Speaker 4: Looking forward to it. We'll see you guys tomorrow.

1987
01:39:54,840 --> 01:39:55,040
Speaker 9: Question