Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington. Thanks for
Speaker 3: being with us on Balance of Power on Bloomberg's TV
Speaker 3: and radio. The meeting began just before we took air
Speaker 3: on the radio at noon, Kailey. It wrapped up about
Speaker 3: ninety minutes later. Two issues at hand, government shut down
Speaker 3: that's four days away unless they come up with a
Speaker 3: plan and funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan. It's very difficult
Speaker 3: to tell based on what we heard from Democrats or
Speaker 3: Republicans leaving that meeting, not including Mitch McConnell, who fled
Speaker 3: to the Capitol, if anything got done.
Speaker 4: They said it was productive, they said it was intense.
Speaker 4: They all seemed to be trying to express optimist that
Speaker 4: a shutdown was going to be avoided. Didn't necessarily give
Speaker 4: us much clarity as to how. And something else that
Speaker 4: Mike Johnson specifically brought up. First thing was the border.
Speaker 4: He said he had a frank conversation about President Biden
Speaker 4: on that in the one on one meeting they had
Speaker 4: after the other three congressional leaders left the room and
Speaker 4: are all now presumably leaving the White House. Interesting optics.
Speaker 4: Indeed still at the White House though, is Bloomberg's White
Speaker 4: House correspondent, Akayla Gardner, who is joining us now. So Kayla.
Speaker 4: Obviously there were a number of different subject areas of
Speaker 4: discussion here. Did the Biden Did President Biden specifically accomplish
Speaker 4: what he wanted to with this meeting?
Speaker 5: I think it's too early to say whether he got
Speaker 5: what he wanted accomplished.
Speaker 6: At the end of the day, what this meeting really
Speaker 6: highlighted is there is just a multiple issues that are
Speaker 6: piling up in Washington that are key to President Biden's agenda.
Speaker 5: You mentioned government funding. All four congressional leaders express confidence
Speaker 5: that they'll.
Speaker 6: Be able to invert a government shutdown that is now
Speaker 6: just three days away that March first. That line that
Speaker 6: will shut down at least partially the government including Commerce,
Speaker 6: Education Department, Justice Department, so a huge segment that would
Speaker 6: affect hundreds of workers here, but all of them expressed
Speaker 6: result that they will be able to reach an agreement.
Speaker 6: What is much less clear is whether they'll be able
Speaker 6: to reach agreement on Ukraine, on funding for Israel, on
Speaker 6: Indo Pacific. Those are all things that are still left
Speaker 6: up up to these lawmakers to decide.
Speaker 3: I'm loving this behind the scenes view of a Kayla
Speaker 3: Gardner at the White House for our viewers on Bloomberg
Speaker 3: TV and YouTube. But Kayla is standing right where the
Speaker 3: principles were a couple of moments ago. This is where
Speaker 3: the stakeout happens, right in front of that West wing portico.
Speaker 7: At Kayla, you are the newsmaker.
Speaker 3: Now, I'm curious if you know did Mike Johnson actually
Speaker 3: leave the building.
Speaker 5: He did leave the building.
Speaker 6: We don't know if he had ice cream with President Biden,
Speaker 6: but he did get that one on one meeting that
Speaker 6: he's been asking for and that the White House has
Speaker 6: dismissed for really a long time. And really this meeting
Speaker 6: comes at a time where there's been clear tension between
Speaker 6: these two leaders, between Speaker Johnson and President Biden because
Speaker 6: the White House has just frankly not seen him as
Speaker 6: a sincere negotiator. They feel like they have met his
Speaker 6: demands to high border funding to Ukraine and Israel.
Speaker 5: And yet he got what he wanted today, and we'll
Speaker 5: see if that is actually going to lead to results
Speaker 5: and whether this thing can get pasted well.
Speaker 4: And of course Mike Johnson talking about the border as
Speaker 4: he emerged, talking about how America's needs need to be
Speaker 4: put first, maybe over the needs of allies like Israel
Speaker 4: in Ukraine. But President Biden himself is making a trip
Speaker 4: to the border later this week on Thursday. What's his
Speaker 4: objective going to be if no executive actions come in
Speaker 4: tandem with that meeting or that visit rather.
Speaker 2: You know, that was.
Speaker 6: A really interesting part of this discussion because we heard
Speaker 6: from speak from Senator Schumer that he believed that the
Speaker 6: President Biden does not have the legal authorities to do
Speaker 6: some executive action, whether that's an emergency or declaration, what
Speaker 6: have you. He does not believe that the president has
Speaker 6: the authorities. And that is also what we've heard from
Speaker 6: the White House as well. And yet you still have
Speaker 6: Speaker Johnson saying he wants Biden to take executive action.
Speaker 5: Now that is a clear tension here.
Speaker 6: But Biden heads to the border on Thursday at the
Speaker 6: same day as Donald Trump and really highlighting how much
Speaker 6: of a political liability this has become. Bloomberg News and
Speaker 6: Morning coulsul pulling continues to show immigration is rising as
Speaker 6: a top priority, specifically among Republicans, but Speaker Johnson said
Speaker 6: he's heard from voters across the political party this is
Speaker 6: an issue that they're seeing in their cities.
Speaker 3: Kayla, are you on pool duty today? Were you in
Speaker 3: the Oval office for that brief period of time?
Speaker 5: I am, And it's writing outside.
Speaker 3: Oh my god, what you're getting wet for us as well,
Speaker 3: So you were in there. Chuck Schumer said it was intense.
Speaker 3: What did he mean, It's.
Speaker 5: Hard to say.
Speaker 6: I mean, you were not a part of those discussions.
Speaker 6: It was a closed door meeting. But that is a
Speaker 6: huge statement here from the Senator because of course you've
Speaker 6: been in Washington for many years, and he said it's
Speaker 6: one of the most intense discussions that he has been
Speaker 6: a part of. But again, that just shows how many
Speaker 6: issues are just piling up and the frustration has to
Speaker 6: be huge for him as the Majority leader. Because the
Speaker 6: Senate has now passed two different legislations, one tying all
Speaker 6: of these broad priorities to the border and one without it.
Speaker 6: He is just frankly, just caught in a stalement here
Speaker 6: and he's not able to get some of these bills
Speaker 6: that have just been taken painstaking months of negotiations through
Speaker 6: the House. Johnson has just refused to put those who
Speaker 6: a vote, and so we'll see what happens next after
Speaker 6: this meeting.
Speaker 3: This is incredible zooming with a Kayla live from the
Speaker 3: White House. Can we make this a regular?
Speaker 7: We got to use a star.
Speaker 3: We have to do it on the regular. Kayla, thank
Speaker 3: you so much for stopping down. She's on pool duty
Speaker 3: but still with us here on Balance of Power. White
Speaker 3: House correspondent for Bloomberg and Kayla Gardner many thanks for
Speaker 3: bringing us inside the perimeter there on the driveway. They
Speaker 3: don't let us walk around there with cameras. That's a
Speaker 3: special moment with a.
Speaker 1: Kayla's to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just
Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and
Speaker 1: enroud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4: Very short remarks from the House speaker Mike Johnson after
Speaker 4: this meeting not just with the other big congressional leaders
Speaker 4: at the White House, but afterward a one on one
Speaker 4: sit down Joe with President Biden himself, in which the
Speaker 4: House Speaker said he brought up the issue of the border.
Speaker 4: He says, America's needs me to be put first, have
Speaker 4: to have an open talk about the open border.
Speaker 8: He says.
Speaker 4: The other big priority is funding of the government. And
Speaker 4: he also echoed the optimism we heard from Chuck Schumer
Speaker 4: and Hakeem Jeffreys that he does believe we can get
Speaker 4: to an agreement to avoid a shutdown. Of course, the
Speaker 4: partial shutdown would begin this Friday.
Speaker 3: So everyone said what they needed to say. I still
Speaker 3: don't have an idea of how that went in there.
Speaker 3: I have to be perfectly honest with you. Mitch McConnell
Speaker 3: left him alone.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I went back to this apos feels a little
Speaker 7: bit weird to me as we bring in a row.
Speaker 3: Kumar, principal co leader of the Washington National Tax Service
Speaker 3: at PwC, spent some time, in fact a good chunk
Speaker 3: of time working for Mitch McConnell and can help us
Speaker 3: understand the behind the scenes conversations that are happening when
Speaker 3: deadlines are approaching and deals are being made or not.
Speaker 3: In the case of today, Rohit, it's great to see you.
Speaker 3: You surprise your old boss went back to the Capital
Speaker 3: on his own today. Does that tell us how much
Speaker 3: ground there is between these two the gap between these
Speaker 3: two Republicans when it comes to the matter of Ukraine.
Speaker 9: So not particularly surprised because the gap was known going in.
Speaker 9: And look, I hate to burst anybody's bubble about what
Speaker 9: happens in these meetings, but I participated in probably several
Speaker 9: dozen Ovalopice meetings during my time working on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 9: I can't remember a single one where I felt like
Speaker 9: we really advanced the ball. Like we walked to that meeting,
Speaker 9: We're like, wow, we really achieved something today.
Speaker 8: Right.
Speaker 9: It just tends to be the same talking points you
Speaker 9: see on the House and Center floor transmitted in private.
Speaker 9: You know, in the Oval Office. No one's going to
Speaker 9: make a big concession in that room. Those breakthroughs, those
Speaker 9: negotiation breakthroughs, they happen in smaller rooms, in one on
Speaker 9: one negotiations, typically in the Capitol, not in the O Office.
Speaker 9: Every Oval Office meeting I went to was just like
Speaker 9: an hour or two of couldn't have my phone was
Speaker 9: going to be horribly behind on email, and we would
Speaker 9: just read our talking points to one another and then
Speaker 9: go back and you know, get back to the real work.
Speaker 8: Well.
Speaker 4: Mike Johnson suggested that work to avoid a shutdown has
Speaker 4: been happening around the clock, even though the House isn't
Speaker 4: even back in session yet. They all return tomorrow, at
Speaker 4: which point there will be about seventy two legislative hours
Speaker 4: left to avert a shutdown. Do you believe their optimism
Speaker 4: on the idea that they're getting close to something that
Speaker 4: would avert a shutdown?
Speaker 9: Yeah, so that optimism is actually it's consistent with that
Speaker 9: I've been hearing in my own conversations, which is that
Speaker 9: there really is a sense that we're going to get
Speaker 9: there and I'm going to shut down. It's I think, well,
Speaker 9: I mean, look, you got to pass either you're going
Speaker 9: to pass the four appropriations bills that expire on the first,
Speaker 9: or you're gonna have to have a temporary continuing resolution.
Speaker 9: I know in the past the Speaker has said no
Speaker 9: continuing resolutions, but yet we still have managed to do
Speaker 9: them in one form or another. And I think, look
Speaker 9: at rout. Everyone understands that nothing is achieved by a shutdown.
Speaker 9: I have been a part of a number of shutdown exercises.
Speaker 9: I've witnessed them from afar. I can't think of a
Speaker 9: single one where as a result of the shutdown somebody
Speaker 9: got something that they weren't going to get already, that
Speaker 9: they somehow gained the ridge in the negotiation. In fact,
Speaker 9: if anything, in shutdowns, especially the ones that go longer
Speaker 9: than a couple of days, you tend to lose leverage,
Speaker 9: end up getting less than you could have gotten on
Speaker 9: the front end, because this shutdown is a self inflicted
Speaker 9: political injury. As mild boss Senter McConnell has said repeatedly,
Speaker 9: Republicans kind of owned the brand on shutdowns, and not
Speaker 9: to their advantage, but largely to their detriment. And so
Speaker 9: I think most people understand, not all, to be clear,
Speaker 9: but most understand that you actually don't get much out
Speaker 9: of a shutdown, and if anything, you might lose something.
Speaker 3: Ro Having been in the room for a couple of these,
Speaker 3: to your point, as the deputy chief of staff to
Speaker 3: the leader Domestic policy director, you're giving us a sense
Speaker 3: of what you made of the language coming out of this,
Speaker 3: But I wonder your thoughts on what the real priorities were.
Speaker 3: Mike Johnson came out first and foremost talking about the border.
Speaker 3: Was this a meeting about Ukraine or about a government shutdown?
Speaker 9: Look, I mean, once you're in the room, you're talking
Speaker 9: about everything. But at some level, no huge surprise that
Speaker 9: Speaker Johnson would come out and talk about immigration and
Speaker 9: talk about the border. Right all the sort of public
Speaker 9: polling would suggest that immigration is top of mind for voters.
Speaker 9: So that makes perfect sense. It's something that Republicans have
Speaker 9: cared deeply about for you know, this is not like
Speaker 9: a new revelation that Republicans care about this issue. And
Speaker 9: so what that tells me is, look, of all of
Speaker 9: the things that are floating around in the government funding conversation,
Speaker 9: immigration is where Speaker Johnson is kind of putting his
Speaker 9: chips in the middle. And so I would be looking
Speaker 9: and paying attention to what, if any concessions are made
Speaker 9: negotiations are had around immigration and whether that And interestingly,
Speaker 9: he particularly called out the president and the ability for
Speaker 9: the President to engage in his own executive action, something
Speaker 9: which has been clearly what's been reported that the administration
Speaker 9: is considering anyway. So I would be looking for money
Speaker 9: on immigration and maybe some policy, but maybe that policy
Speaker 9: is not legislative policy but executive action policy.
Speaker 4: There's something else i'd like to ask you about giving
Speaker 4: your experience with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell row hit, which
Speaker 4: is that there has been reporting this week that there
Speaker 4: are back channel efforts underway to secure McConnell's endorsement of
Speaker 4: former President Trump. Of course, we've seen pretty much all
Speaker 4: of the Senate leadership at this point do so. But
Speaker 4: Trump is someone that McConnell has called practically and morally
Speaker 4: responsible for what happened at the Capitol on January sixth,
Speaker 4: exactly been shy about his disdain for some of the
Speaker 4: former president's policies, actions, even words he's spoken against McConnell's wife.
Speaker 4: Does it surprise you that McConnell will consider endorsing Trump
Speaker 4: at this point.
Speaker 9: Yeah, So, look, I mean, the one thing I will
Speaker 9: say is that Leader McConnell has been consistent that he
Speaker 9: would endorse and support the Republican nominee for president, and
Speaker 9: so despite whatever else he has said about former President Trump,
Speaker 9: he's also said he would endorse the Republican nominee, and
Speaker 9: to the extent that former President Trump ends up being
Speaker 9: the Republican nominee, you know, that would pave a path
Speaker 9: for that potentially to happen. I think it's too soon
Speaker 9: to say for sure which way this is going to
Speaker 9: go or how this is all going to shake out,
Speaker 9: but he has been clear that he would support the
Speaker 9: Republican nominee for president.
Speaker 3: There's a lot there considering the impact that Donald Trump
Speaker 3: could have on this very.
Speaker 7: Issue of Ukraine.
Speaker 3: Where are you in Ukraine funding? Rod hit We've kind
Speaker 3: of danced around this a little bit. Is that something
Speaker 3: that will be addressed once the shutdown is either avoided
Speaker 3: or cleared somehow?
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean look, Speaker Johnson alluded to this. He said,
Speaker 9: we're looking at all options. They're clearly looking for a
Speaker 9: third way.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 9: Way one would be the Senate bill, Way two would
Speaker 9: be to do nothing, and way three would be to
Speaker 9: find some other version of compromise legislation. Again, it's clear
Speaker 9: immigration is top of mind, and while there was an
Speaker 9: effort that ultimately failed in the Senate to resolve that issue,
Speaker 9: maybe the House can find you a different approach that
Speaker 9: is more than the liking of House Republicans that can pass.
Speaker 9: But I don't think this issue is going away. Remember
Speaker 9: it's not just Ukraine funding, it's also Israel funding. It's
Speaker 9: also there's some Taiwan money in there as well, So
Speaker 9: there's more to it than Ukraine, even though Ukraine has
Speaker 9: been kind of dominating the political headlines.
Speaker 4: All right, Roe hit Kumar now of PwC, but of
Speaker 4: course someone who has in the past worked very closely
Speaker 4: with Senator Mitch McConnell. Thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 4: There's a lot to digest here, from Ukraine to the
Speaker 4: border to avoiding a government shutdown, and we're going to
Speaker 4: have more on that our political panel coming up.
Speaker 1: Joe, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 1: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on.
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Speaker 3: Let's bring you inside the West Wing. You're such a
Speaker 3: Washingtonian to the Oval Office. Just just a sense of
Speaker 3: what it.
Speaker 7: Was like to be in the room.
Speaker 3: You've got the four congressional leaders and the president and
Speaker 3: vice president at the fireplace.
Speaker 7: Let's take a look in Ukraine.
Speaker 1: I think the need is urgent.
Speaker 10: I hope they speak to that a little bit, and
Speaker 10: I think the consequence of an action every day in
Speaker 10: Ukraine are dire. I'm speaking to some of who are
Speaker 10: Teach seven partners.
Speaker 3: And referring to the dire needs in Ukraine. If you're
Speaker 3: with us on the radio showing images of a packed
Speaker 3: Oval office with the press pool in there, they were
Speaker 3: quickly a score it out to allow that meeting to happen, Kaylee.
Speaker 7: It lasted about ninety minutes from.
Speaker 4: Marcount Yeah, it was. It was pretty quick, all things considered,
Speaker 4: relatively on time, which is all that is the case. No,
Speaker 4: they weren't going to waste any more time together in
Speaker 4: each other's presences than perhaps absolutely necessary. But we are
Speaker 4: always glad to have Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno in
Speaker 4: our presence, at least virtually Bloomberg's politics contributors who are
Speaker 4: joining us now, Rick Genie. We were just speaking with
Speaker 4: Rohit Kumar, who used to work in McConnell's office help
Speaker 4: negotiate the debt ceiling deal back in twenty eleven. He
Speaker 4: told us, look, nothing really happens in these oval office meetings,
Speaker 4: everybody goes back to huddle and rooms at the Capitol
Speaker 4: and that's really where things get hammered out. Genie, what
Speaker 4: was the point of today if nothing concrete emerged from it?
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, I myself didn't expect much productive out
Speaker 11: of it. I think the President and had an interest
Speaker 11: in inviting everyone to the White House to show that
Speaker 11: he is on top of this. And of course when
Speaker 11: you get an invitation to the White House, you can't
Speaker 11: refuse it, so off they all went. And you know,
Speaker 11: from that perspective, I do think this is a self
Speaker 11: inflicted wound on the part of the Republicans. You know,
Speaker 11: Joe Biden wants to run against this do nothing Congress,
Speaker 11: and he wants to continue to say right through the
Speaker 11: State of the Union coming up next week, that they
Speaker 11: just can't get things done. You can't turn the whole
Speaker 11: government over to these folks because they can't get anything done.
Speaker 11: And this just plays into his hands, including the fact
Speaker 11: that Mitch McConnell didn't go out with his own party member,
Speaker 11: that he decided to head right back to Capitol Hill.
Speaker 8: Who can blame him?
Speaker 11: This is a self enforced, self inflicted error on the
Speaker 11: part of the Republicans. You need to pass the budget.
Speaker 11: There's no big policy disagreement. This is all politics, and
Speaker 11: that is not going to play with the American public.
Speaker 11: So I think it was a small win for the
Speaker 11: President and a big loss for the Republicans in the House.
Speaker 3: Rick, you spoke earlier about the triangulating against Mike Johnson
Speaker 3: inside that meeting, Everyone but Mike Johnson seems to be
Speaker 3: rowing in the same direction. Did Mitch McConnell's decision to
Speaker 3: head back to the Capitol leave him alone in the
Speaker 3: driveway speak to that?
Speaker 12: Sure, Mitch mcconnald didn't want to put him in the
Speaker 12: position of having to actually disagree with Mitch McConnell, because
Speaker 12: if Mitch mcconnald stood there, he'd sound more like the
Speaker 12: majority leader of the Senate, Chuck Schumer, because they actually
Speaker 12: don't disagree on how to find government, how to fund Ukraine,
Speaker 12: and what to do about the border. So he did
Speaker 12: him a favor by saying, you know what, rather than
Speaker 12: cause problems for you, as the seasoned Republican here, I'm
Speaker 12: just going to let you walk out there on your
Speaker 12: own and I'll head back to the office. So but yes,
Speaker 12: this was all about pointing the finger at the one
Speaker 12: person who's standing in the way of a border deal,
Speaker 12: of a supplemental deal, of a budget deal. Everybody else
Speaker 12: has agreement on those things, except for Mike Johnson and
Speaker 12: the Republican caucus in.
Speaker 7: The Senate or in the House.
Speaker 12: So I think Biden accomplished that. The fact that they
Speaker 12: had the speaker walk out on his own and basically
Speaker 12: reiterate those talking points in contrast to everybody else who
Speaker 12: was at that meeting, isolates him, shows him how a
Speaker 12: lonely is, and puts all the onus on progress on him.
Speaker 4: Of course, as we have the conversation related to the
Speaker 4: supplemental funding package, it was not just Ukraine that we
Speaker 4: heard the President raise, but Israel funding as well, because
Speaker 4: that is a component here, and we know that that
Speaker 4: potentially could mean that any package in the House could
Speaker 4: lose support, not just on the Republican side, but on
Speaker 4: the Democratic side as well. And this is something we're
Speaker 4: probably likely to see in the Michigan primary, which takes
Speaker 4: place today. There's a big effort underway, supported by Arab
Speaker 4: Musslim Americans to vote uncommitted rather than for President Biden
Speaker 4: because of his stance on being supportive of israel In
Speaker 4: despite perhaps what is happening in Palestine and the high
Speaker 4: civilian death toll. But this is actually something he spoke
Speaker 4: about with Seth Myers in New York yesterday, talking up
Speaker 4: the prospect of a ceasefire in the not so distant future.
Speaker 4: Take a listen to the president.
Speaker 8: Can you give us a send what you mean, a
Speaker 8: fial to start?
Speaker 10: Sir, well, I hope by the beginning of the weekend,
Speaker 10: I mean the end of the weekend at least my
Speaker 10: not security advisor tells me that we're close. We're close,
Speaker 10: not done yet, and my hope is by next Monday
Speaker 10: we'll have a ceasefire.
Speaker 4: So next Monday, a ceasefire, Genie. When there is a
Speaker 4: primary in Michigan today. I think this timing is a coincidence.
Speaker 11: No, no coincidence at all. The Monday's no coincidence. He's
Speaker 11: staring straight down the state of the Union. I think
Speaker 11: the one unfortunate aspect of that. You know, he's right
Speaker 11: to say he's hoping we get there. The one unfortunate
Speaker 11: aspect is the way that video rolls out with the
Speaker 11: ice cream and the sunglasses. I don't think that's the
Speaker 11: look you should be portraying when you're talking about something
Speaker 11: that your constituents, many of them feel is an absolute
Speaker 11: travesty of what is going on in Gaza, according to
Speaker 11: many of those people who are going to be voting today.
Speaker 11: I don't think you want to address that in terms
Speaker 11: of the number of deaths and everything else with sunglasses
Speaker 11: and ice cream, so that I don't understand. But he
Speaker 11: is hoping, of course, that we get at least a
Speaker 11: temporary cease fire, and that is what the President is
Speaker 11: banking on, and if it comes with the State of
Speaker 11: the Union week, all the better for the administration and
Speaker 11: the campaign.
Speaker 3: So rick is the State of the Union the real
Speaker 3: deadline for everything here. We're going to have a ceasefire
Speaker 3: by then, maybe we'll have a government funding deal, some
Speaker 3: action on Ukraine Bayway. We even see an executive action
Speaker 3: on the border that we've reported the President is considering.
Speaker 7: A lot could happen between now on next Thursday.
Speaker 12: Yeah, no question about it. Some of those things we're
Speaker 12: waiting on right now. If there's going to be executive
Speaker 12: border action, you'd think they'd do it before or during
Speaker 12: the President Biden's trip to the border on Thursday.
Speaker 7: I want to remind everybody.
Speaker 12: We thought we had a ceasefire deal over a week
Speaker 12: ago that fell apart. So I think they're trying to
Speaker 12: get one as soon as they can. Whether that had
Speaker 12: anything to do with Michigan's primary today, probably not. It's
Speaker 12: just not that important to the president. But for sure
Speaker 12: he wants to get these things settled and done before
Speaker 12: he has to give the State of the Union, and
Speaker 12: that is a real deadline.
Speaker 4: Well, and it's just coming up nine days from now.
Speaker 4: A lot obviously still to happen in the interim, and
Speaker 4: perhaps a temporary ceasefire beginning would be one of those things.
Speaker 4: But Rick, as we think about that issue specifically how
Speaker 4: it's showing up in Michigan, and the idea that a
Speaker 4: significant portion perhaps of a certain demographic is not happy
Speaker 4: with the way the President is handling this issue, you
Speaker 4: could also add to the list of young people who
Speaker 4: are turning away from the president, polling suggests, and the
Speaker 4: idea that manufacturing, which is a big issue in Michigan,
Speaker 4: Biden has specifically went to automotive labor and supporting the
Speaker 4: unions there. They don't necessarily seem to be more for
Speaker 4: him than for Trump as a result, just how many
Speaker 4: different Democrat demographic issues could be showing up for Biden
Speaker 4: in Michigan, not just in this primary, but as we
Speaker 4: look ahead to the general election to come.
Speaker 12: Yeah, no, I mean Michigan is a real tight rote
Speaker 12: for Joe Biden. As you mentioned, you've got over one
Speaker 12: hundred thousand Arab Americans who live in Dearborn. That's in
Speaker 12: Wayne County. He won Wayne County by sixty eight percent
Speaker 12: in twenty twenty. But the reality is that's probably too little.
Speaker 12: He only won the entire election is Donald Trump by
Speaker 12: one hundred and fifty thousand, So you can imagine if
Speaker 12: those Arab Americans sit home, he's got a problem. And
Speaker 12: the reality is that no state gives you more of
Speaker 12: a clear picture of the demographics of this election coming
Speaker 12: up than Michigan, where almost one hundred percent of the
Speaker 12: vote for Joe Biden's coming out of the cities and
Speaker 12: one hundred percent of the vote for Donald Trump comes
Speaker 12: out of the counties. Donald Trump will win virtually all
Speaker 12: the counties. Will only be a dozen counties that Joe
Speaker 12: Biden win, but it'll be eighty percent of the vote total.
Speaker 12: So you know it's one of the situations that mirrors
Speaker 12: the country right now, and it's worth watching. And frankly,
Speaker 12: I can't wait for the next Bloomberg poll to come
Speaker 12: out so that we can see another trend. As far
Speaker 12: as what's happening in Michigan for the general election, it's.
Speaker 7: But days away.
Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano, great talk. Thanks for being
Speaker 3: with us on breaking news today. We can always count
Speaker 3: on our Bloomberg Politics contributors here on Balance of Power,
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington alongside Kaylee Lines.
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Speaker 3: We've also got something going on today in Michigan called
Speaker 3: a presidential primary, and this is a big Joe Biden story. Yes,
Speaker 3: of course, there's a Republican primary there and they're going
Speaker 3: to have a caucus this weekend and Donald Trump's gonna
Speaker 3: win it, and this is all we're hearing. But Joe
Speaker 3: Biden has got a very specific challenge going on right now.
Speaker 3: And it brings us back to his policy in Israel
Speaker 3: and gos It. We've talked about it here before. There's
Speaker 3: an abandoned Biden campaign. This is a Democrat campaign in Michigan.
Speaker 3: There's also a listen to Michigan campaign in which some
Speaker 3: folks like Congresswomen to leave, are urging Democrats to vote uncommitted.
Speaker 3: And we wanted to talk to Caitlin Leagaki about this,
Speaker 3: the partner at Four Corners Public Affairs, one of our
Speaker 3: democratic analysts here on balance of power, former advisor senior
Speaker 3: advisor to Commerce Secretary Gina Romando.
Speaker 7: Caitlin, it's good to have you back.
Speaker 3: How much of a liability is this for Joe Biden
Speaker 3: as opposed to a media sensation?
Speaker 13: I think by and large it's a media sensation. Obviously
Speaker 13: Michigan is the one state where Biden's Middle East policy
Speaker 13: has the most opportunity to become an issue. But I
Speaker 13: think you know what the folks at the Biden campaign
Speaker 13: are going to do is they're going to look at
Speaker 13: what comes out of tonight and then view that as
Speaker 13: an opportunity to go out and identify the voters they need.
Speaker 8: To win back.
Speaker 13: And so it's actually a huge trove of data for
Speaker 13: them to go and understand what the state of the
Speaker 13: play is there. But now, I would also remind you
Speaker 13: that Barack Obama in twenty twelve, when he was running
Speaker 13: an opposed also got something like twelve percent in uncommitted vote.
Speaker 13: So I personally would be more concerned if he was
Speaker 13: losing forty percent of Democrats the way that Donald Trump
Speaker 13: is losing forty percent of Republicans to Nicki Haley. So
Speaker 13: you know, I think they're going to be very measured
Speaker 13: about it over at the Biden campaign, and they're going
Speaker 13: to see what the data tells them and then go
Speaker 13: from there.
Speaker 3: Well, it certainly does not seem to be a coincidence,
Speaker 3: Caitlin that we got the news from Joe Biden that
Speaker 3: we got last evening. He talked about it a bit
Speaker 3: on Seth Meyers's TV show, but he was also asked
Speaker 3: by reporters while he's eating an ice cream cone about Israel,
Speaker 3: and the quote was pretty interesting as he suggests that
Speaker 3: there will be a cease fire announced by Monday. He
Speaker 3: says his national security advisor tells him, quote, we're close,
Speaker 3: We're not done yet. My hope is by Monday. We'll
Speaker 3: have a cease fire. Would he have said that yesterday
Speaker 3: if it weren't the day before Michigan?
Speaker 8: Oh?
Speaker 13: I think he only said it because he was at
Speaker 13: You know, he is the kind of guy that answers
Speaker 13: questions from reporters when they ask them. I'm sure that
Speaker 13: was not a planned, you know, release in an ice
Speaker 13: cream parlor from the White House. But no, you know,
Speaker 13: I think that the Biden White House has actually worked
Speaker 13: very hard to be very responsible about how they handle
Speaker 13: the situation. Really more a coincidence of timing than anything else.
Speaker 3: Interesting line from Andy Levin, the former congressman. He used
Speaker 3: to come on this broadcast pretty often. Democrat Big Joe
Speaker 3: Biden ally helped him with build back better infrastructure, the
Speaker 3: IRA and all the rest of it. He is supporting
Speaker 3: the uncommitted campaign and he says Joe Biden's problem is
Speaker 3: not a political problem, it is a policy problem.
Speaker 7: Caitlin, what does he mean by that?
Speaker 13: I think that there are a number of Muslim Americans,
Speaker 13: especially in Michigan, who feel that the Biden administration.
Speaker 8: Has not done enough to advocate for the civilians in Gaza.
Speaker 13: That's what Congressman Levin means. And I think what it
Speaker 13: also means is that in order for the Biden campaign
Speaker 13: and the Biden administration just to really communicate with these
Speaker 13: voters and show that they've been heard, it is going
Speaker 13: quire some sort of policy shift in terms of either
Speaker 13: walking a tougher line with Prime Minister net Nyahu doing
Speaker 13: being more forceful about getting aid into Gaza and supporting
Speaker 13: those humanitarian reliefs. And so I agree, you know, the
Speaker 13: fact of the matter is there are fundamental concerns within
Speaker 13: this community about how Israel is conducting itself in Gaza,
Speaker 13: and the Biden White House is going to have to
Speaker 13: figure out how do they address those concerns make sure
Speaker 13: those civilians are taken care of, while also staying close
Speaker 13: enough to Israel to prevent this from spilling out into
Speaker 13: other countries in the region, which is really the biggest
Speaker 13: concern for a lot of folks.
Speaker 3: Well, and I don't want to spend too much time
Speaker 3: on this, Caitlin, but when when you talk policy, the
Speaker 3: public formal stated policy of this administration is that Israel
Speaker 3: has gone over the top, that there's that restraint should
Speaker 3: be part of the response here, that a proportionate response
Speaker 3: should be delivered. But we're not seeing it, of course,
Speaker 3: should should Joe Biden be punished for what Israel is
Speaker 3: doing without his approval?
Speaker 8: I don't believe so. I also think that, you know,
Speaker 8: one of.
Speaker 13: The hardest things in politics is to prove a negative,
Speaker 13: and what Joe Biden has done over the last gosh
Speaker 13: five months now is really prevent a much uglier, much
Speaker 13: deadlier regional click for breaking out. I think that the
Speaker 13: Biden administration has shifted and they strengthen their language as
Speaker 13: it comes to net Niyahu and how Israel is conducting
Speaker 13: the war in Gaza. But we also do have to
Speaker 13: remember that there are hundreds of Israeli citizens that are
Speaker 13: still being held hostage by a terrorist organization, and we
Speaker 13: do need to get them home as well, And so
Speaker 13: it's a very delicate balancing act to make sure that
Speaker 13: we get those folks home without incurring any additional unnecessary
Speaker 13: civilian casualties.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Well, the idea here would be that Israel halts the
Speaker 3: offensive in Gaza in time for Ramadan in exchange for
Speaker 3: or as they say, if a deal is reached for
Speaker 3: the release of the more than one hundred remaining hostages,
Speaker 3: that would be a pretty important moment for Joe Biden.
Speaker 3: In the meantime, domestically here Kaitlyn Legaki, what does he
Speaker 3: do in the days ahead. We're going to be counting
Speaker 3: uncommitted votes in Michigan tomorrow. That's going to be part
Speaker 3: of the narrative, questions about his age, questions about whether
Speaker 3: he can beat Donald Trump in a general election. What's
Speaker 3: the strategy for the weeks ahead?
Speaker 13: I think you know, it's honestly, keep calm and carry on.
Speaker 13: We have seen the economy continue to get stronger.
Speaker 8: That the President and the White House are again.
Speaker 13: The adults in the room when it comes to this
Speaker 13: looming government shut down. They've been very responsible, very conciliatory
Speaker 13: towards Rupkin's.
Speaker 8: Trying to find compromises, and.
Speaker 13: All of this is going to build to the State
Speaker 13: of the Union in a couple of weeks, which is
Speaker 13: really going to be the biggest platform that the President
Speaker 13: has between now and the election, to both make a
Speaker 13: case for what he's done, to make a case for
Speaker 13: what he wants to do in a new term, and
Speaker 13: then also to drive that contrast when you look at
Speaker 13: Republicans in the House who simply can't get it together
Speaker 13: to fundament they won't take yes for an answer, or
Speaker 13: when you look at Donald Trump and you look at
Speaker 13: the Supreme Court ruling out of.
Speaker 8: Alabama banning IVF.
Speaker 13: There are two very different visions for America that we're discussing,
Speaker 13: and Biden's going to use the State of the Union
Speaker 13: to make that case.
Speaker 7: The state of the Union is divided.
Speaker 8: It might be right now, but Committee.
Speaker 7: I'm out of time, Kaitlin. But can he say that
Speaker 7: next week?
Speaker 13: He will not, because if anyone's going to work harder
Speaker 13: to pull it back together, it's Joe Biden.
Speaker 7: Something attractive about the truth. I tell you what, go
Speaker 7: up there.
Speaker 3: And do a fifteen minute speech, be honest about it.
Speaker 3: I feel like it would be embraced.
Speaker 7: Caitlin. It's great to see you, Lagaki.
Speaker 3: Normally with us on our panel, we wanted to drill
Speaker 3: down on what was happening in Michigan today from Four
Speaker 3: Corners Public Affairs, great insights. Thanks for listening to the
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