1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:12,719 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. 3 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 2: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay. 4 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 1: And then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. 5 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 6 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:24,760 Speaker 2: us live on YouTube. 7 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington. Thanks for 8 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 3: being with us on Balance of Power on Bloomberg's TV 9 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 3: and radio. The meeting began just before we took air 10 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,160 Speaker 3: on the radio at noon, Kailey. It wrapped up about 11 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 3: ninety minutes later. Two issues at hand, government shut down 12 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 3: that's four days away unless they come up with a 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 3: plan and funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan. It's very difficult 14 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 3: to tell based on what we heard from Democrats or 15 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 3: Republicans leaving that meeting, not including Mitch McConnell, who fled 16 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 3: to the Capitol, if anything got done. 17 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 4: They said it was productive, they said it was intense. 18 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 4: They all seemed to be trying to express optimist that 19 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 4: a shutdown was going to be avoided. Didn't necessarily give 20 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 4: us much clarity as to how. And something else that 21 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 4: Mike Johnson specifically brought up. First thing was the border. 22 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 4: He said he had a frank conversation about President Biden 23 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:14,759 Speaker 4: on that in the one on one meeting they had 24 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 4: after the other three congressional leaders left the room and 25 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 4: are all now presumably leaving the White House. Interesting optics. 26 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 4: Indeed still at the White House though, is Bloomberg's White 27 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 4: House correspondent, Akayla Gardner, who is joining us now. So Kayla. 28 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 4: Obviously there were a number of different subject areas of 29 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 4: discussion here. Did the Biden Did President Biden specifically accomplish 30 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 4: what he wanted to with this meeting? 31 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 5: I think it's too early to say whether he got 32 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 5: what he wanted accomplished. 33 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 6: At the end of the day, what this meeting really 34 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 6: highlighted is there is just a multiple issues that are 35 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 6: piling up in Washington that are key to President Biden's agenda. 36 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 5: You mentioned government funding. All four congressional leaders express confidence 37 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 5: that they'll. 38 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 6: Be able to invert a government shutdown that is now 39 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 6: just three days away that March first. That line that 40 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 6: will shut down at least partially the government including Commerce, 41 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:09,839 Speaker 6: Education Department, Justice Department, so a huge segment that would 42 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 6: affect hundreds of workers here, but all of them expressed 43 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 6: result that they will be able to reach an agreement. 44 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 6: What is much less clear is whether they'll be able 45 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 6: to reach agreement on Ukraine, on funding for Israel, on 46 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 6: Indo Pacific. Those are all things that are still left 47 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 6: up up to these lawmakers to decide. 48 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 3: I'm loving this behind the scenes view of a Kayla 49 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:34,399 Speaker 3: Gardner at the White House for our viewers on Bloomberg 50 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 3: TV and YouTube. But Kayla is standing right where the 51 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:39,399 Speaker 3: principles were a couple of moments ago. This is where 52 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 3: the stakeout happens, right in front of that West wing portico. 53 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 7: At Kayla, you are the newsmaker. 54 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 3: Now, I'm curious if you know did Mike Johnson actually 55 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 3: leave the building. 56 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 5: He did leave the building. 57 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 6: We don't know if he had ice cream with President Biden, 58 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 6: but he did get that one on one meeting that 59 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 6: he's been asking for and that the White House has 60 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 6: dismissed for really a long time. And really this meeting 61 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 6: comes at a time where there's been clear tension between 62 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 6: these two leaders, between Speaker Johnson and President Biden because 63 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 6: the White House has just frankly not seen him as 64 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 6: a sincere negotiator. They feel like they have met his 65 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 6: demands to high border funding to Ukraine and Israel. 66 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 5: And yet he got what he wanted today, and we'll 67 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 5: see if that is actually going to lead to results 68 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 5: and whether this thing can get pasted well. 69 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:27,239 Speaker 4: And of course Mike Johnson talking about the border as 70 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 4: he emerged, talking about how America's needs need to be 71 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 4: put first, maybe over the needs of allies like Israel 72 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 4: in Ukraine. But President Biden himself is making a trip 73 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 4: to the border later this week on Thursday. What's his 74 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 4: objective going to be if no executive actions come in 75 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 4: tandem with that meeting or that visit rather. 76 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 2: You know, that was. 77 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,119 Speaker 6: A really interesting part of this discussion because we heard 78 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 6: from speak from Senator Schumer that he believed that the 79 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 6: President Biden does not have the legal authorities to do 80 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 6: some executive action, whether that's an emergency or declaration, what 81 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 6: have you. He does not believe that the president has 82 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 6: the authorities. And that is also what we've heard from 83 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 6: the White House as well. And yet you still have 84 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 6: Speaker Johnson saying he wants Biden to take executive action. 85 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 5: Now that is a clear tension here. 86 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 6: But Biden heads to the border on Thursday at the 87 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,280 Speaker 6: same day as Donald Trump and really highlighting how much 88 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 6: of a political liability this has become. Bloomberg News and 89 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 6: Morning coulsul pulling continues to show immigration is rising as 90 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 6: a top priority, specifically among Republicans, but Speaker Johnson said 91 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 6: he's heard from voters across the political party this is 92 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 6: an issue that they're seeing in their cities. 93 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 3: Kayla, are you on pool duty today? Were you in 94 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 3: the Oval office for that brief period of time? 95 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,919 Speaker 5: I am, And it's writing outside. 96 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 3: Oh my god, what you're getting wet for us as well, 97 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 3: So you were in there. Chuck Schumer said it was intense. 98 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:53,839 Speaker 3: What did he mean, It's. 99 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 5: Hard to say. 100 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 6: I mean, you were not a part of those discussions. 101 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 6: It was a closed door meeting. But that is a 102 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 6: huge statement here from the Senator because of course you've 103 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 6: been in Washington for many years, and he said it's 104 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 6: one of the most intense discussions that he has been 105 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 6: a part of. But again, that just shows how many 106 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 6: issues are just piling up and the frustration has to 107 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 6: be huge for him as the Majority leader. Because the 108 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 6: Senate has now passed two different legislations, one tying all 109 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 6: of these broad priorities to the border and one without it. 110 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 6: He is just frankly, just caught in a stalement here 111 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 6: and he's not able to get some of these bills 112 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 6: that have just been taken painstaking months of negotiations through 113 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 6: the House. Johnson has just refused to put those who 114 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 6: a vote, and so we'll see what happens next after 115 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 6: this meeting. 116 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 3: This is incredible zooming with a Kayla live from the 117 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 3: White House. Can we make this a regular? 118 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 7: We got to use a star. 119 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 3: We have to do it on the regular. Kayla, thank 120 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 3: you so much for stopping down. She's on pool duty 121 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 3: but still with us here on Balance of Power. White 122 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 3: House correspondent for Bloomberg and Kayla Gardner many thanks for 123 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 3: bringing us inside the perimeter there on the driveway. They 124 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 3: don't let us walk around there with cameras. That's a 125 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 3: special moment with a. 126 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: Kayla's to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just 127 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and 128 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: enroud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. 129 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 130 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 131 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 4: Very short remarks from the House speaker Mike Johnson after 132 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 4: this meeting not just with the other big congressional leaders 133 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 4: at the White House, but afterward a one on one 134 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 4: sit down Joe with President Biden himself, in which the 135 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 4: House Speaker said he brought up the issue of the border. 136 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:34,919 Speaker 4: He says, America's needs me to be put first, have 137 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 4: to have an open talk about the open border. 138 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 8: He says. 139 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 4: The other big priority is funding of the government. And 140 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:42,040 Speaker 4: he also echoed the optimism we heard from Chuck Schumer 141 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 4: and Hakeem Jeffreys that he does believe we can get 142 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,479 Speaker 4: to an agreement to avoid a shutdown. Of course, the 143 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 4: partial shutdown would begin this Friday. 144 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 3: So everyone said what they needed to say. I still 145 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 3: don't have an idea of how that went in there. 146 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 3: I have to be perfectly honest with you. Mitch McConnell 147 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 3: left him alone. 148 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 7: Yeah, I went back to this apos feels a little 149 00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 7: bit weird to me as we bring in a row. 150 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 3: Kumar, principal co leader of the Washington National Tax Service 151 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 3: at PwC, spent some time, in fact a good chunk 152 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 3: of time working for Mitch McConnell and can help us 153 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 3: understand the behind the scenes conversations that are happening when 154 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 3: deadlines are approaching and deals are being made or not. 155 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 3: In the case of today, Rohit, it's great to see you. 156 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 3: You surprise your old boss went back to the Capital 157 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 3: on his own today. Does that tell us how much 158 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 3: ground there is between these two the gap between these 159 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 3: two Republicans when it comes to the matter of Ukraine. 160 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 9: So not particularly surprised because the gap was known going in. 161 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 9: And look, I hate to burst anybody's bubble about what 162 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 9: happens in these meetings, but I participated in probably several 163 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 9: dozen Ovalopice meetings during my time working on Capitol Hill. 164 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 9: I can't remember a single one where I felt like 165 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 9: we really advanced the ball. Like we walked to that meeting, 166 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 9: We're like, wow, we really achieved something today. 167 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 8: Right. 168 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 9: It just tends to be the same talking points you 169 00:07:56,800 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 9: see on the House and Center floor transmitted in private. 170 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 9: You know, in the Oval Office. No one's going to 171 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 9: make a big concession in that room. Those breakthroughs, those 172 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 9: negotiation breakthroughs, they happen in smaller rooms, in one on 173 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 9: one negotiations, typically in the Capitol, not in the O Office. 174 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 9: Every Oval Office meeting I went to was just like 175 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 9: an hour or two of couldn't have my phone was 176 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 9: going to be horribly behind on email, and we would 177 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 9: just read our talking points to one another and then 178 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 9: go back and you know, get back to the real work. 179 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 8: Well. 180 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 4: Mike Johnson suggested that work to avoid a shutdown has 181 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 4: been happening around the clock, even though the House isn't 182 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 4: even back in session yet. They all return tomorrow, at 183 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,599 Speaker 4: which point there will be about seventy two legislative hours 184 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:44,079 Speaker 4: left to avert a shutdown. Do you believe their optimism 185 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 4: on the idea that they're getting close to something that 186 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:48,599 Speaker 4: would avert a shutdown? 187 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 9: Yeah, so that optimism is actually it's consistent with that 188 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 9: I've been hearing in my own conversations, which is that 189 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 9: there really is a sense that we're going to get 190 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 9: there and I'm going to shut down. It's I think, well, 191 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 9: I mean, look, you got to pass either you're going 192 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 9: to pass the four appropriations bills that expire on the first, 193 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 9: or you're gonna have to have a temporary continuing resolution. 194 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 9: I know in the past the Speaker has said no 195 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 9: continuing resolutions, but yet we still have managed to do 196 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 9: them in one form or another. And I think, look 197 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 9: at rout. Everyone understands that nothing is achieved by a shutdown. 198 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 9: I have been a part of a number of shutdown exercises. 199 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:26,840 Speaker 9: I've witnessed them from afar. I can't think of a 200 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 9: single one where as a result of the shutdown somebody 201 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 9: got something that they weren't going to get already, that 202 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 9: they somehow gained the ridge in the negotiation. In fact, 203 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,080 Speaker 9: if anything, in shutdowns, especially the ones that go longer 204 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 9: than a couple of days, you tend to lose leverage, 205 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 9: end up getting less than you could have gotten on 206 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,199 Speaker 9: the front end, because this shutdown is a self inflicted 207 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 9: political injury. As mild boss Senter McConnell has said repeatedly, 208 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 9: Republicans kind of owned the brand on shutdowns, and not 209 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 9: to their advantage, but largely to their detriment. And so 210 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 9: I think most people understand, not all, to be clear, 211 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 9: but most understand that you actually don't get much out 212 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 9: of a shutdown, and if anything, you might lose something. 213 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 3: Ro Having been in the room for a couple of these, 214 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 3: to your point, as the deputy chief of staff to 215 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 3: the leader Domestic policy director, you're giving us a sense 216 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 3: of what you made of the language coming out of this, 217 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 3: But I wonder your thoughts on what the real priorities were. 218 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 3: Mike Johnson came out first and foremost talking about the border. 219 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 3: Was this a meeting about Ukraine or about a government shutdown? 220 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 9: Look, I mean, once you're in the room, you're talking 221 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 9: about everything. But at some level, no huge surprise that 222 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 9: Speaker Johnson would come out and talk about immigration and 223 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 9: talk about the border. Right all the sort of public 224 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 9: polling would suggest that immigration is top of mind for voters. 225 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 9: So that makes perfect sense. It's something that Republicans have 226 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 9: cared deeply about for you know, this is not like 227 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 9: a new revelation that Republicans care about this issue. And 228 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 9: so what that tells me is, look, of all of 229 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 9: the things that are floating around in the government funding conversation, 230 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 9: immigration is where Speaker Johnson is kind of putting his 231 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 9: chips in the middle. And so I would be looking 232 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 9: and paying attention to what, if any concessions are made 233 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:12,839 Speaker 9: negotiations are had around immigration and whether that And interestingly, 234 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 9: he particularly called out the president and the ability for 235 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 9: the President to engage in his own executive action, something 236 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 9: which has been clearly what's been reported that the administration 237 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 9: is considering anyway. So I would be looking for money 238 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 9: on immigration and maybe some policy, but maybe that policy 239 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 9: is not legislative policy but executive action policy. 240 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,079 Speaker 4: There's something else i'd like to ask you about giving 241 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:40,439 Speaker 4: your experience with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell row hit, which 242 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,959 Speaker 4: is that there has been reporting this week that there 243 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 4: are back channel efforts underway to secure McConnell's endorsement of 244 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 4: former President Trump. Of course, we've seen pretty much all 245 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 4: of the Senate leadership at this point do so. But 246 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:56,560 Speaker 4: Trump is someone that McConnell has called practically and morally 247 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 4: responsible for what happened at the Capitol on January sixth, 248 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 4: exactly been shy about his disdain for some of the 249 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 4: former president's policies, actions, even words he's spoken against McConnell's wife. 250 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 4: Does it surprise you that McConnell will consider endorsing Trump 251 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:14,560 Speaker 4: at this point. 252 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 9: Yeah, So, look, I mean, the one thing I will 253 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 9: say is that Leader McConnell has been consistent that he 254 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 9: would endorse and support the Republican nominee for president, and 255 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 9: so despite whatever else he has said about former President Trump, 256 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 9: he's also said he would endorse the Republican nominee, and 257 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 9: to the extent that former President Trump ends up being 258 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 9: the Republican nominee, you know, that would pave a path 259 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 9: for that potentially to happen. I think it's too soon 260 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 9: to say for sure which way this is going to 261 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 9: go or how this is all going to shake out, 262 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 9: but he has been clear that he would support the 263 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 9: Republican nominee for president. 264 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 3: There's a lot there considering the impact that Donald Trump 265 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 3: could have on this very. 266 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 7: Issue of Ukraine. 267 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 3: Where are you in Ukraine funding? Rod hit We've kind 268 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 3: of danced around this a little bit. Is that something 269 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 3: that will be addressed once the shutdown is either avoided 270 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 3: or cleared somehow? 271 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean look, Speaker Johnson alluded to this. He said, 272 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 9: we're looking at all options. They're clearly looking for a 273 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 9: third way. 274 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: Right. 275 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 9: Way one would be the Senate bill, Way two would 276 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:15,679 Speaker 9: be to do nothing, and way three would be to 277 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 9: find some other version of compromise legislation. Again, it's clear 278 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 9: immigration is top of mind, and while there was an 279 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 9: effort that ultimately failed in the Senate to resolve that issue, 280 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 9: maybe the House can find you a different approach that 281 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:30,880 Speaker 9: is more than the liking of House Republicans that can pass. 282 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 9: But I don't think this issue is going away. Remember 283 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 9: it's not just Ukraine funding, it's also Israel funding. It's 284 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 9: also there's some Taiwan money in there as well, So 285 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 9: there's more to it than Ukraine, even though Ukraine has 286 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 9: been kind of dominating the political headlines. 287 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 4: All right, Roe hit Kumar now of PwC, but of 288 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 4: course someone who has in the past worked very closely 289 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 4: with Senator Mitch McConnell. Thank you so much for your time. 290 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 4: There's a lot to digest here, from Ukraine to the 291 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,320 Speaker 4: border to avoiding a government shutdown, and we're going to 292 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 4: have more on that our political panel coming up. 293 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 1: Joe, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. 294 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on. 295 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 2: Appo, CarPlay and then roun Ato with the Bloomberg Business 296 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 2: app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or 297 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 2: watch us live on YouTube. 298 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 3: Let's bring you inside the West Wing. You're such a 299 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 3: Washingtonian to the Oval Office. Just just a sense of 300 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 3: what it. 301 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 7: Was like to be in the room. 302 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 3: You've got the four congressional leaders and the president and 303 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 3: vice president at the fireplace. 304 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 7: Let's take a look in Ukraine. 305 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: I think the need is urgent. 306 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 10: I hope they speak to that a little bit, and 307 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 10: I think the consequence of an action every day in 308 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 10: Ukraine are dire. I'm speaking to some of who are 309 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 10: Teach seven partners. 310 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 3: And referring to the dire needs in Ukraine. If you're 311 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 3: with us on the radio showing images of a packed 312 00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 3: Oval office with the press pool in there, they were 313 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 3: quickly a score it out to allow that meeting to happen, Kaylee. 314 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 7: It lasted about ninety minutes from. 315 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 4: Marcount Yeah, it was. It was pretty quick, all things considered, 316 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 4: relatively on time, which is all that is the case. No, 317 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 4: they weren't going to waste any more time together in 318 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 4: each other's presences than perhaps absolutely necessary. But we are 319 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 4: always glad to have Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno in 320 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 4: our presence, at least virtually Bloomberg's politics contributors who are 321 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 4: joining us now, Rick Genie. We were just speaking with 322 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 4: Rohit Kumar, who used to work in McConnell's office help 323 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 4: negotiate the debt ceiling deal back in twenty eleven. He 324 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 4: told us, look, nothing really happens in these oval office meetings, 325 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 4: everybody goes back to huddle and rooms at the Capitol 326 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 4: and that's really where things get hammered out. Genie, what 327 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:45,320 Speaker 4: was the point of today if nothing concrete emerged from it? 328 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, I myself didn't expect much productive out 329 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 11: of it. I think the President and had an interest 330 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 11: in inviting everyone to the White House to show that 331 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 11: he is on top of this. And of course when 332 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 11: you get an invitation to the White House, you can't 333 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 11: refuse it, so off they all went. And you know, 334 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 11: from that perspective, I do think this is a self 335 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 11: inflicted wound on the part of the Republicans. You know, 336 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:13,239 Speaker 11: Joe Biden wants to run against this do nothing Congress, 337 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 11: and he wants to continue to say right through the 338 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 11: State of the Union coming up next week, that they 339 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 11: just can't get things done. You can't turn the whole 340 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 11: government over to these folks because they can't get anything done. 341 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 11: And this just plays into his hands, including the fact 342 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 11: that Mitch McConnell didn't go out with his own party member, 343 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 11: that he decided to head right back to Capitol Hill. 344 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 8: Who can blame him? 345 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 11: This is a self enforced, self inflicted error on the 346 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 11: part of the Republicans. You need to pass the budget. 347 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 11: There's no big policy disagreement. This is all politics, and 348 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 11: that is not going to play with the American public. 349 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 11: So I think it was a small win for the 350 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 11: President and a big loss for the Republicans in the House. 351 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 3: Rick, you spoke earlier about the triangulating against Mike Johnson 352 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 3: inside that meeting, Everyone but Mike Johnson seems to be 353 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,159 Speaker 3: rowing in the same direction. Did Mitch McConnell's decision to 354 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 3: head back to the Capitol leave him alone in the 355 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 3: driveway speak to that? 356 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 12: Sure, Mitch mcconnald didn't want to put him in the 357 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:17,479 Speaker 12: position of having to actually disagree with Mitch McConnell, because 358 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:20,439 Speaker 12: if Mitch mcconnald stood there, he'd sound more like the 359 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:23,479 Speaker 12: majority leader of the Senate, Chuck Schumer, because they actually 360 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 12: don't disagree on how to find government, how to fund Ukraine, 361 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 12: and what to do about the border. So he did 362 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 12: him a favor by saying, you know what, rather than 363 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 12: cause problems for you, as the seasoned Republican here, I'm 364 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:38,719 Speaker 12: just going to let you walk out there on your 365 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:42,119 Speaker 12: own and I'll head back to the office. So but yes, 366 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 12: this was all about pointing the finger at the one 367 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 12: person who's standing in the way of a border deal, 368 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,400 Speaker 12: of a supplemental deal, of a budget deal. Everybody else 369 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 12: has agreement on those things, except for Mike Johnson and 370 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 12: the Republican caucus in. 371 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 7: The Senate or in the House. 372 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:01,919 Speaker 12: So I think Biden accomplished that. The fact that they 373 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 12: had the speaker walk out on his own and basically 374 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 12: reiterate those talking points in contrast to everybody else who 375 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,159 Speaker 12: was at that meeting, isolates him, shows him how a 376 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 12: lonely is, and puts all the onus on progress on him. 377 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 4: Of course, as we have the conversation related to the 378 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 4: supplemental funding package, it was not just Ukraine that we 379 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 4: heard the President raise, but Israel funding as well, because 380 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 4: that is a component here, and we know that that 381 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 4: potentially could mean that any package in the House could 382 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 4: lose support, not just on the Republican side, but on 383 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 4: the Democratic side as well. And this is something we're 384 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 4: probably likely to see in the Michigan primary, which takes 385 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,120 Speaker 4: place today. There's a big effort underway, supported by Arab 386 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 4: Musslim Americans to vote uncommitted rather than for President Biden 387 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 4: because of his stance on being supportive of israel In 388 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 4: despite perhaps what is happening in Palestine and the high 389 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 4: civilian death toll. But this is actually something he spoke 390 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 4: about with Seth Myers in New York yesterday, talking up 391 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,719 Speaker 4: the prospect of a ceasefire in the not so distant future. 392 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 4: Take a listen to the president. 393 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 8: Can you give us a send what you mean, a 394 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:06,879 Speaker 8: fial to start? 395 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 10: Sir, well, I hope by the beginning of the weekend, 396 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 10: I mean the end of the weekend at least my 397 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:17,400 Speaker 10: not security advisor tells me that we're close. We're close, 398 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,919 Speaker 10: not done yet, and my hope is by next Monday 399 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 10: we'll have a ceasefire. 400 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,439 Speaker 4: So next Monday, a ceasefire, Genie. When there is a 401 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 4: primary in Michigan today. I think this timing is a coincidence. 402 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 11: No, no coincidence at all. The Monday's no coincidence. He's 403 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 11: staring straight down the state of the Union. I think 404 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 11: the one unfortunate aspect of that. You know, he's right 405 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 11: to say he's hoping we get there. The one unfortunate 406 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 11: aspect is the way that video rolls out with the 407 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 11: ice cream and the sunglasses. I don't think that's the 408 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 11: look you should be portraying when you're talking about something 409 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 11: that your constituents, many of them feel is an absolute 410 00:19:57,080 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 11: travesty of what is going on in Gaza, according to 411 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 11: many of those people who are going to be voting today. 412 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 11: I don't think you want to address that in terms 413 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 11: of the number of deaths and everything else with sunglasses 414 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,679 Speaker 11: and ice cream, so that I don't understand. But he 415 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,159 Speaker 11: is hoping, of course, that we get at least a 416 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,119 Speaker 11: temporary cease fire, and that is what the President is 417 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 11: banking on, and if it comes with the State of 418 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,359 Speaker 11: the Union week, all the better for the administration and 419 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:23,119 Speaker 11: the campaign. 420 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 3: So rick is the State of the Union the real 421 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 3: deadline for everything here. We're going to have a ceasefire 422 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 3: by then, maybe we'll have a government funding deal, some 423 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:36,400 Speaker 3: action on Ukraine Bayway. We even see an executive action 424 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,400 Speaker 3: on the border that we've reported the President is considering. 425 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,440 Speaker 7: A lot could happen between now on next Thursday. 426 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 12: Yeah, no question about it. Some of those things we're 427 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 12: waiting on right now. If there's going to be executive 428 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:51,879 Speaker 12: border action, you'd think they'd do it before or during 429 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 12: the President Biden's trip to the border on Thursday. 430 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 7: I want to remind everybody. 431 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,719 Speaker 12: We thought we had a ceasefire deal over a week 432 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,879 Speaker 12: ago that fell apart. So I think they're trying to 433 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:04,439 Speaker 12: get one as soon as they can. Whether that had 434 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,120 Speaker 12: anything to do with Michigan's primary today, probably not. It's 435 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 12: just not that important to the president. But for sure 436 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 12: he wants to get these things settled and done before 437 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 12: he has to give the State of the Union, and 438 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 12: that is a real deadline. 439 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 4: Well, and it's just coming up nine days from now. 440 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 4: A lot obviously still to happen in the interim, and 441 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 4: perhaps a temporary ceasefire beginning would be one of those things. 442 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 4: But Rick, as we think about that issue specifically how 443 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 4: it's showing up in Michigan, and the idea that a 444 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 4: significant portion perhaps of a certain demographic is not happy 445 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 4: with the way the President is handling this issue, you 446 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 4: could also add to the list of young people who 447 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 4: are turning away from the president, polling suggests, and the 448 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,479 Speaker 4: idea that manufacturing, which is a big issue in Michigan, 449 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:52,879 Speaker 4: Biden has specifically went to automotive labor and supporting the 450 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 4: unions there. They don't necessarily seem to be more for 451 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 4: him than for Trump as a result, just how many 452 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,679 Speaker 4: different Democrat demographic issues could be showing up for Biden 453 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,119 Speaker 4: in Michigan, not just in this primary, but as we 454 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 4: look ahead to the general election to come. 455 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 12: Yeah, no, I mean Michigan is a real tight rote 456 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 12: for Joe Biden. As you mentioned, you've got over one 457 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 12: hundred thousand Arab Americans who live in Dearborn. That's in 458 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 12: Wayne County. He won Wayne County by sixty eight percent 459 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:25,439 Speaker 12: in twenty twenty. But the reality is that's probably too little. 460 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 12: He only won the entire election is Donald Trump by 461 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,479 Speaker 12: one hundred and fifty thousand, So you can imagine if 462 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 12: those Arab Americans sit home, he's got a problem. And 463 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 12: the reality is that no state gives you more of 464 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 12: a clear picture of the demographics of this election coming 465 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 12: up than Michigan, where almost one hundred percent of the 466 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 12: vote for Joe Biden's coming out of the cities and 467 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 12: one hundred percent of the vote for Donald Trump comes 468 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,120 Speaker 12: out of the counties. Donald Trump will win virtually all 469 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 12: the counties. Will only be a dozen counties that Joe 470 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,680 Speaker 12: Biden win, but it'll be eighty percent of the vote total. 471 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,360 Speaker 12: So you know it's one of the situations that mirrors 472 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,880 Speaker 12: the country right now, and it's worth watching. And frankly, 473 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,879 Speaker 12: I can't wait for the next Bloomberg poll to come 474 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,880 Speaker 12: out so that we can see another trend. As far 475 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 12: as what's happening in Michigan for the general election, it's. 476 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 7: But days away. 477 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,440 Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano, great talk. Thanks for being 478 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 3: with us on breaking news today. We can always count 479 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 3: on our Bloomberg Politics contributors here on Balance of Power, 480 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington alongside Kaylee Lines. 481 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 482 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,560 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on. 483 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,760 Speaker 2: Apocarplay and then roun Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. 484 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 485 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,280 Speaker 2: us live on YouTube. 486 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 3: We've also got something going on today in Michigan called 487 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,880 Speaker 3: a presidential primary, and this is a big Joe Biden story. Yes, 488 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 3: of course, there's a Republican primary there and they're going 489 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,680 Speaker 3: to have a caucus this weekend and Donald Trump's gonna 490 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 3: win it, and this is all we're hearing. But Joe 491 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,360 Speaker 3: Biden has got a very specific challenge going on right now. 492 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 3: And it brings us back to his policy in Israel 493 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 3: and gos It. We've talked about it here before. There's 494 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 3: an abandoned Biden campaign. This is a Democrat campaign in Michigan. 495 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 3: There's also a listen to Michigan campaign in which some 496 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 3: folks like Congresswomen to leave, are urging Democrats to vote uncommitted. 497 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 3: And we wanted to talk to Caitlin Leagaki about this, 498 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,119 Speaker 3: the partner at Four Corners Public Affairs, one of our 499 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,920 Speaker 3: democratic analysts here on balance of power, former advisor senior 500 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:29,919 Speaker 3: advisor to Commerce Secretary Gina Romando. 501 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 7: Caitlin, it's good to have you back. 502 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,679 Speaker 3: How much of a liability is this for Joe Biden 503 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,200 Speaker 3: as opposed to a media sensation? 504 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 13: I think by and large it's a media sensation. Obviously 505 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:45,360 Speaker 13: Michigan is the one state where Biden's Middle East policy 506 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:50,520 Speaker 13: has the most opportunity to become an issue. But I 507 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,879 Speaker 13: think you know what the folks at the Biden campaign 508 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 13: are going to do is they're going to look at 509 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,439 Speaker 13: what comes out of tonight and then view that as 510 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 13: an opportunity to go out and identify the voters they need. 511 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 8: To win back. 512 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 13: And so it's actually a huge trove of data for 513 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,359 Speaker 13: them to go and understand what the state of the 514 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 13: play is there. But now, I would also remind you 515 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:13,639 Speaker 13: that Barack Obama in twenty twelve, when he was running 516 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,120 Speaker 13: an opposed also got something like twelve percent in uncommitted vote. 517 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 13: So I personally would be more concerned if he was 518 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,119 Speaker 13: losing forty percent of Democrats the way that Donald Trump 519 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 13: is losing forty percent of Republicans to Nicki Haley. So 520 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 13: you know, I think they're going to be very measured 521 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 13: about it over at the Biden campaign, and they're going 522 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 13: to see what the data tells them and then go 523 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:35,640 Speaker 13: from there. 524 00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 3: Well, it certainly does not seem to be a coincidence, 525 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,359 Speaker 3: Caitlin that we got the news from Joe Biden that 526 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 3: we got last evening. He talked about it a bit 527 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:48,120 Speaker 3: on Seth Meyers's TV show, but he was also asked 528 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,360 Speaker 3: by reporters while he's eating an ice cream cone about Israel, 529 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 3: and the quote was pretty interesting as he suggests that 530 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,199 Speaker 3: there will be a cease fire announced by Monday. He 531 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 3: says his national security advisor tells him, quote, we're close, 532 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 3: We're not done yet. My hope is by Monday. We'll 533 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 3: have a cease fire. Would he have said that yesterday 534 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 3: if it weren't the day before Michigan? 535 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:11,959 Speaker 8: Oh? 536 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:13,920 Speaker 13: I think he only said it because he was at 537 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:18,440 Speaker 13: You know, he is the kind of guy that answers 538 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,639 Speaker 13: questions from reporters when they ask them. I'm sure that 539 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:25,280 Speaker 13: was not a planned, you know, release in an ice 540 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:29,639 Speaker 13: cream parlor from the White House. But no, you know, 541 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 13: I think that the Biden White House has actually worked 542 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,400 Speaker 13: very hard to be very responsible about how they handle 543 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:39,440 Speaker 13: the situation. Really more a coincidence of timing than anything else. 544 00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 3: Interesting line from Andy Levin, the former congressman. He used 545 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 3: to come on this broadcast pretty often. Democrat Big Joe 546 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:52,159 Speaker 3: Biden ally helped him with build back better infrastructure, the 547 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,440 Speaker 3: IRA and all the rest of it. He is supporting 548 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 3: the uncommitted campaign and he says Joe Biden's problem is 549 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,520 Speaker 3: not a political problem, it is a policy problem. 550 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:03,720 Speaker 7: Caitlin, what does he mean by that? 551 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 13: I think that there are a number of Muslim Americans, 552 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 13: especially in Michigan, who feel that the Biden administration. 553 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 8: Has not done enough to advocate for the civilians in Gaza. 554 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,159 Speaker 13: That's what Congressman Levin means. And I think what it 555 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 13: also means is that in order for the Biden campaign 556 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,399 Speaker 13: and the Biden administration just to really communicate with these 557 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 13: voters and show that they've been heard, it is going 558 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,200 Speaker 13: quire some sort of policy shift in terms of either 559 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,919 Speaker 13: walking a tougher line with Prime Minister net Nyahu doing 560 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:46,160 Speaker 13: being more forceful about getting aid into Gaza and supporting 561 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:50,119 Speaker 13: those humanitarian reliefs. And so I agree, you know, the 562 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 13: fact of the matter is there are fundamental concerns within 563 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:58,440 Speaker 13: this community about how Israel is conducting itself in Gaza, 564 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 13: and the Biden White House is going to have to 565 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:05,120 Speaker 13: figure out how do they address those concerns make sure 566 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:10,200 Speaker 13: those civilians are taken care of, while also staying close 567 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,960 Speaker 13: enough to Israel to prevent this from spilling out into 568 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,920 Speaker 13: other countries in the region, which is really the biggest 569 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 13: concern for a lot of folks. 570 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,800 Speaker 3: Well, and I don't want to spend too much time 571 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:25,680 Speaker 3: on this, Caitlin, but when when you talk policy, the 572 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 3: public formal stated policy of this administration is that Israel 573 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 3: has gone over the top, that there's that restraint should 574 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 3: be part of the response here, that a proportionate response 575 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,360 Speaker 3: should be delivered. But we're not seeing it, of course, 576 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,320 Speaker 3: should should Joe Biden be punished for what Israel is 577 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:43,920 Speaker 3: doing without his approval? 578 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,760 Speaker 8: I don't believe so. I also think that, you know, 579 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:48,200 Speaker 8: one of. 580 00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 13: The hardest things in politics is to prove a negative, 581 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:55,440 Speaker 13: and what Joe Biden has done over the last gosh 582 00:28:55,520 --> 00:29:01,360 Speaker 13: five months now is really prevent a much uglier, much 583 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 13: deadlier regional click for breaking out. I think that the 584 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 13: Biden administration has shifted and they strengthen their language as 585 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 13: it comes to net Niyahu and how Israel is conducting 586 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 13: the war in Gaza. But we also do have to 587 00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:22,520 Speaker 13: remember that there are hundreds of Israeli citizens that are 588 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 13: still being held hostage by a terrorist organization, and we 589 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 13: do need to get them home as well, And so 590 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 13: it's a very delicate balancing act to make sure that 591 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 13: we get those folks home without incurring any additional unnecessary 592 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:38,800 Speaker 13: civilian casualties. 593 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:39,480 Speaker 1: Yeah. 594 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:41,960 Speaker 3: Well, the idea here would be that Israel halts the 595 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 3: offensive in Gaza in time for Ramadan in exchange for 596 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:50,640 Speaker 3: or as they say, if a deal is reached for 597 00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:54,160 Speaker 3: the release of the more than one hundred remaining hostages, 598 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,760 Speaker 3: that would be a pretty important moment for Joe Biden. 599 00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,400 Speaker 3: In the meantime, domestically here Kaitlyn Legaki, what does he 600 00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 3: do in the days ahead. We're going to be counting 601 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 3: uncommitted votes in Michigan tomorrow. That's going to be part 602 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:10,240 Speaker 3: of the narrative, questions about his age, questions about whether 603 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,880 Speaker 3: he can beat Donald Trump in a general election. What's 604 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 3: the strategy for the weeks ahead? 605 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 13: I think you know, it's honestly, keep calm and carry on. 606 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:22,360 Speaker 13: We have seen the economy continue to get stronger. 607 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 8: That the President and the White House are again. 608 00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 13: The adults in the room when it comes to this 609 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 13: looming government shut down. They've been very responsible, very conciliatory 610 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 13: towards Rupkin's. 611 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 8: Trying to find compromises, and. 612 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 13: All of this is going to build to the State 613 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 13: of the Union in a couple of weeks, which is 614 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 13: really going to be the biggest platform that the President 615 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,640 Speaker 13: has between now and the election, to both make a 616 00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 13: case for what he's done, to make a case for 617 00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,440 Speaker 13: what he wants to do in a new term, and 618 00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 13: then also to drive that contrast when you look at 619 00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 13: Republicans in the House who simply can't get it together 620 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,640 Speaker 13: to fundament they won't take yes for an answer, or 621 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 13: when you look at Donald Trump and you look at 622 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,160 Speaker 13: the Supreme Court ruling out of. 623 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:09,720 Speaker 8: Alabama banning IVF. 624 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,880 Speaker 13: There are two very different visions for America that we're discussing, 625 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:15,680 Speaker 13: and Biden's going to use the State of the Union 626 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 13: to make that case. 627 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 7: The state of the Union is divided. 628 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 8: It might be right now, but Committee. 629 00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 7: I'm out of time, Kaitlin. But can he say that 630 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:26,120 Speaker 7: next week? 631 00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 13: He will not, because if anyone's going to work harder 632 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,240 Speaker 13: to pull it back together, it's Joe Biden. 633 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,760 Speaker 7: Something attractive about the truth. I tell you what, go 634 00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 7: up there. 635 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,160 Speaker 3: And do a fifteen minute speech, be honest about it. 636 00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:40,840 Speaker 3: I feel like it would be embraced. 637 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 7: Caitlin. It's great to see you, Lagaki. 638 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:44,880 Speaker 3: Normally with us on our panel, we wanted to drill 639 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,640 Speaker 3: down on what was happening in Michigan today from Four 640 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:54,280 Speaker 3: Corners Public Affairs, great insights. Thanks for listening to the 641 00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:57,680 Speaker 3: Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you 642 00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:01,200 Speaker 3: haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts, 643 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 3: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, 644 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,880 Speaker 3: DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.