1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Lee. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. What 5 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,479 Speaker 1: we're about is good conversation. On on Friday, you have 6 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:38,319 Speaker 1: to sum up and get ready for next week. We've 7 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: got a terrific team with us right now. Morse Read 8 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: with us, John Norman with us as well, and now 9 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: Anthony Gardner joins. He's a former United States Ambassador of 10 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 1: the European Union. We are Thrilledi's with us. He speaks 11 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 1: to six languages. I wish I could speak and he 12 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: joins us this morning as well. What's the secret to 13 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: learning five languages? What is the secret? Having an Italian 14 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: mother helps? And you're having an Italian mother? Goes Okay, 15 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 1: we can stop the show right now, move on Morris 16 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,759 Speaker 1: Streets segment. Okay, Anthony, we are here in Klaus Schwab 17 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 1: in the World Economic Forum has decided we're having globalization 18 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: four point oh. Has there been a shift in the 19 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 1: concept of globalization in politics and in economics. Oh, I 20 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 1: think there has been there's been a move in many countries, 21 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,759 Speaker 1: not on the States, but in Europe of of being 22 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 1: inward looking and basically challenging the precepts of an open 23 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:39,479 Speaker 1: world trading system and a rules based multilateral order. That's 24 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: what's now on the agenda began decide talks about the 25 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: death of the liberal orders, define that define the Washington 26 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 1: Consensus liberal order, and how it's changed. Well, certainly the 27 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: importance of rules like the w t O, of the 28 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 1: multilateral system, international law as a way to deal with disputes. 29 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: And now one country after an they're not only the 30 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: United States has invoked national security exemption, but others Russia 31 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: and Saudi Arabia are now saying, once we invoke our 32 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: own interests national security, otherwise rules don't apply. Judges can't 33 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: rule on disputes. That undermines a lot of the basis 34 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 1: for a free, open trading system. More so, are we 35 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: less multilateral now than we were the pre Trump election? Yeah, 36 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 1: we're much more personality driven, But there are opportunities and 37 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 1: personality driven you know, situations if you look at some 38 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 1: of the strong man that this is where well, at 39 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 1: the beginning of the Trump administration. We advise our clients 40 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: that if you really wanted to get close to him, 41 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:38,079 Speaker 1: you need to appeal to his ego. Right. That doesn't 42 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 1: necessarily mean you're going to get everything you want, but 43 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: having the seat at the table it's important, particularly when 44 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: you're dealing with a guy that looks from his advantage 45 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: points first. So are we less absolutely, But are there opportunities? 46 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 1: For sure, there's opportunities. Okay, But but togatherings like Davos 47 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: actually give ammunition to the populists. Well they might, indeed, 48 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 1: But I think Dallas has tried to open up to 49 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 1: just not the you know, not just the business community, 50 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 1: but others NGOs. They've been doing it for a while 51 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,519 Speaker 1: and they're continuing to emphasize the importance of other stakeholders 52 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:12,360 Speaker 1: in the system. So they are opening up and listening. 53 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 1: But Babbos wants the populace there as well. They want 54 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: Donald Trump there. They wanted to ains and vict Urban 55 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: because when you ignore them, this is how things fall apart. 56 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: You have to engage. Well, if someone wants to go 57 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 1: left for someone wants to go right, you still have 58 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,920 Speaker 1: to engage because there are always opportunities to make a 59 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: deal and when people described to ignore him. This is 60 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: why the Democrats are having a lot of problems. They're 61 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 1: ignoring him instead of engaging him. They're getting emotional about 62 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 1: him then looking strategically. When you look at opportunities and 63 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: focus solely on that, you get things done. I think 64 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: that's absolutely right. This is a very fine, difficult line 65 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 1: for the Democrats and others to to to demand to 66 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 1: manage how do we look and be tough and to 67 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: engage with the European allies and and say to the 68 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 1: Chinese you need to reform, but at the same time 69 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: defend the system. It we built up together, right, and 70 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: and the system has benefited us beyond any other country, 71 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,119 Speaker 1: but we're not making that case in a good way. 72 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 1: Really important. This idea of be tough and the definition 73 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 1: and be tough, and it's an honor to go to 74 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: you Mores. I think of Ron Brown is a tough 75 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 1: kid out of Harlem. He had some opportunities and then 76 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: he landed at Middlebury College, the only black guy in 77 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: Vermont from what I could tell at the time, and 78 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 1: he learned along the way a pragmatic approach, which was 79 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 1: the Ron Brown method. You've done the same thing and 80 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 1: your career. Where did the pragmatic approach go to an 81 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 1: America and shut down that won't even attend AVOs? Well, 82 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 1: it started when people start to focus on personality, selfishness 83 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 1: as well, personalities driven in politics instead of getting things 84 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 1: done for people. Listen, well, we were in government, we 85 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 1: did a lot of things. We didn't have to beat 86 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 1: our chest about them. We got them done for the 87 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,720 Speaker 1: benefit of things. Now you have a situation where people 88 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:56,720 Speaker 1: are very focused on themselves first and ultimately where things go. 89 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:58,839 Speaker 1: But Morris, it also gets people to vote when they 90 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: haven't voted in ten years. So Twitter, social media is 91 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: a tool to get people to vote. This is very 92 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 1: interesting and this is an interesting point. Hillary Clinton still 93 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,600 Speaker 1: got more votes than Donald Trump. This is what people 94 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: keep forgetting right. The reason she lost is because she 95 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: ran a populace campaign instead of electoral college campaign. So 96 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,119 Speaker 1: this whole thesis about being on Twitter and all these 97 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 1: crazy things just because you're on Twitter and you have 98 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 1: a lot of following Democratic candidates for two twenty learn 99 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:29,679 Speaker 1: anything from the election? Are you going to run for president? 100 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 1: All everybody else is in They learn from Secretary Clinton's tobacco. No, 101 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 1: of course, not what they're doing is going too far 102 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: to the left. So you look at some of these 103 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 1: younger rising stars where everyone's saying, we gotta be on Twitter, 104 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 1: We've got to act like Trump. Now, how you win. 105 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 1: You know how you won elections. You talk about issues 106 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: that matter, You put together strategies that matter. And this 107 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 1: is why the Democrats have to have a strategy in 108 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,480 Speaker 1: the House or they're gonna lose. I agree they look 109 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: the asset test is are we making America stronger? Are 110 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 1: we supporting the interests of our exporters, are farmers and 111 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: our ranches and so forth? My view, my conclusion about 112 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 1: the Trump tactics is no, we are not. I'm all 113 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 1: four tactics at work. I'm all for opening up the 114 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 1: Chinese market, bringing more cases w t O with our 115 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 1: European allies. I I just think the American elector will 116 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 1: have to ask the question, are these tactics working administration? 117 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 1: This is why this is exactly why I believe it's 118 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:25,840 Speaker 1: going to be shut down for six months, because the 119 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:29,159 Speaker 1: very people that that you outline that this is supposed 120 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 1: to help, it's hurting them. They haven't psychologically gotten there. 121 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: It will take six months. Norman, give us the background 122 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: here and take a green book I am f F 123 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:41,159 Speaker 1: approach on the global financial stability. Given his comment of 124 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:43,599 Speaker 1: a shutdown for six months and the tensions that the 125 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 1: ambassadors speaks, do we have a system that can withstand this? Uh? 126 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: It depends on the country, and it depends on the 127 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: type of shock. I think what makes a lot of 128 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: these discussions highly relevant from markets is every election is 129 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 1: not just about policies, it's about the system itself. And 130 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: so that's why you have this pricing and of team 131 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 1: changes and actual regime changes which are coming through with 132 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: Trump and also with with Brexit. These are things that 133 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 1: we haven't seen in thirty or forty years in the 134 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: global economy, and that's why you're getting tremendous repricings of 135 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 1: markets around a lot of these events. John, what's relevant 136 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: for markets and devils? So, so President Trump is not coming, 137 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 1: No one from his administration is coming. The French president 138 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 1: isn't coming. Three so May had to cancel it because 139 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: she's negotiating a possible plan exit. Um, Tom's not going 140 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: to move the markets. So what are you looking for? Well, 141 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 1: my guess is the big stuff is happening off the slopes, 142 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: meaning it matters what the US and China are gonna 143 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 1: be saying to each other outside of Davos over the 144 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: next few weeks leading up to this March. Personal banks, 145 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 1: central banks, I think are acting in a uncoordinated fashion, 146 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 1: but in the same direction. I mean, they're all turning dubbish. 147 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: But not because they've gathered in one place and decided 148 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 1: this is the right policy systemically. It's because it's the 149 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: right policy for each individual economy. The choice we've got 150 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: to go or we can extend this conversation three hours. 151 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: If they want to make news, they should be focusing 152 00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: on who should be the head of the World Bank, 153 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: and I should make sure it's a woman, and I 154 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: don't matter, all right. Actually that's as they say, would 155 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: you guys? Shut up? Tony Gardner from were you as 156 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: a pastor to the you Morris Freed of Mercury Partners 157 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 1: and John Norman of JP Morgan. Let's bring a Jude in. 158 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: Emmanuel bt G, Chief Equities and derivative Strategist, Good morning 159 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 1: to Julian. You're morning on the try story. Please. Well, look, 160 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 1: so China is coming to Washington at the end of 161 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: the month, So in our view, everything between now and 162 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: then is probably just to and fro jockeying for position. 163 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 1: The negotiations are going to happen, we expect at some 164 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: point heading towards March, there's going to be favorable uh, 165 00:08:56,200 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 1: not necessarily resolution, but certainly favorable news that's going to 166 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:04,319 Speaker 1: ease tensions in despite the denial. We've got a taste 167 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 1: of what it would mean for the market, both in 168 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: equity and foreign exchange, quite clearly positive for stocks and 169 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: negative for the U. S. Dollar. To what degree do 170 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 1: you think that the trade story can drive things sustainably 171 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:21,839 Speaker 1: through Well, it actually can be a very profound positive. 172 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 1: The story of the fourth quarter of eighteen was one 173 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 1: of just intense negativity, and clearly the frictions with China 174 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: really did, you know, compound what we're already other items, um, 175 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 1: including this whole idea that the global slowdown was certainly 176 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: very much caused by these trade frictions. The disinflation story 177 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,200 Speaker 1: now literally you've gone from the glass half empty to 178 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:53,839 Speaker 1: the glass half full. People find themselves under invested, things 179 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: look better, The FED is is really eased off, and 180 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: we think that's a material positive. Good news is now 181 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: starting to become good news, and we're seeing stocks respond accordingly, 182 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 1: some people are pushing ban Julian. They say, whether a 183 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: deal is sufficient to underpin sentiment in the long run, 184 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 1: that remains questionable, because what we really need to see 185 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 1: is the data are in China stabilize, And what we 186 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 1: haven't seen so far is exactly that you can have 187 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 1: the sentiment improve, but do you have the fundamentals improved simultaneously. Julian, Uh, 188 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:25,560 Speaker 1: there's no question about the fact that the data does 189 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: need to improve in China. And obviously, you know, part 190 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 1: of what we as global investors have to deal with 191 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:35,440 Speaker 1: is that there's always a bit of a view that 192 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: the data is somewhat opaque in China. But if you 193 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: look at how the last year has developed, it really 194 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 1: has sort of trended in a classic way that global recessions, 195 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: stock market tops and then ultimate recoveries off of stimulus 196 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 1: tend to proceed. The question is is is China willing 197 00:10:56,720 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: to do sort of whatever it takes stimulus wise to 198 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 1: really move their economy forward. We think that ultimately is 199 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 1: the year unfalls, the answer is likely to be yes. Well, 200 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 1: the market is also making that conclusion. The market pricing 201 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: increasingly for a stability story emerging in China and positioning 202 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: for that as well. Juden, how do you convince people 203 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: that this is more than just a relief rally for 204 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 1: an ugly December. Well, truthfully, this is one of these times, John, 205 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 1: where essentially, as investors, we are paid to invest, and 206 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: the price action of the last three to four weeks 207 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: is telling an investor that that conditions are better, certainly 208 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: more favorable than was appeared at the end of the year. 209 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: And essentially what we have, particularly after the SMP crossed 210 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: through that level, is pressure to perform, which I might 211 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 1: add is very rare this early in the year, and 212 00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 1: that's likely something that's going to cause momentum to continue 213 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:02,839 Speaker 1: to move forward. Julian, that's the international story that we 214 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 1: spent the first five minutes of the program talking about. 215 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 1: Let's talk about the domestic story in the United States. 216 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 1: Is it the shutdown shaping the market story eventually or 217 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,680 Speaker 1: is the market shaping the shutdown? And the reason I 218 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:17,439 Speaker 1: asked this is we've seen several reports and a ton 219 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 1: of speculation that the President is comfortable with the length 220 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: of the shutdown and its impact on the U S 221 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 1: economy just so long as the market holds up. So 222 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 1: it's the shutdown going to hit the market or is 223 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: the market essentially shaping the shutdown Julian, which one is it? Well, 224 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: if you look at past shutdowns, they tend to have 225 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 1: very little effect on the market. But what's potentially different 226 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 1: this time is because the measures a sentiment, the confidence 227 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: measures were so elevated for such a long time in 228 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 1: and then along came the fourth quarter and those measures 229 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 1: started to come off. You know, you're at a point where, yes, 230 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: obviously people are under invested, Yes the economy looks better 231 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 1: than everyone expected, but it's very important to keep confidence 232 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 1: elevated really to keep economic activity sort of moving along. 233 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: And in that respect, you know, obviously both the Republicans 234 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: and the Democrats seem to not be carrying out the 235 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: will of the people by keeping the government closed. We 236 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 1: think ultimately that will resolve itself as well. But it 237 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: really is one of those things where the disconnect between 238 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 1: the government and and and the stock market should remain 239 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:32,439 Speaker 1: that way. And and we did a lot of work 240 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: that shows that gridlock is not positive for markets. You 241 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: just have this sent an extreme of the fourth quarter, 242 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: and you're seeing a rally that makes sense whether there 243 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 1: is or is not continue government shutdown, Julian. There is 244 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 1: a belief that they fed as in a holding pattern 245 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 1: until the market has sounded the old Claire. I think 246 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: it's morphed into something a little bit more than that now, Julian, 247 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 1: because I don't think we're gonna get a clean month 248 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: of data for the US economy for several months now. 249 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: I'll wait the Federal Reserve. Surely count think about moving 250 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 1: without a clean month of economic data, or two or 251 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 1: three for that matter, for the U s economy. No. 252 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 1: And and look, if you look at the president's own economists, 253 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 1: their estimates of how much the economy UH could slow 254 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: based on the government shutdown are actually somewhat higher than 255 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: private estimates. And in that regard, you know, we think 256 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 1: the FED, we take the Chairman Powell at his word 257 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: in that public appearance on January the fourth, we actually 258 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: don't believe that there's going to be a rate hike 259 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 1: UH this entire year. And actually, if we're wrong, we 260 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 1: think that the economy will will surprise to the upside, 261 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 1: not only in the US but globally as well. The 262 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: FED saw what happened in the fourth quarter. The last 263 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: thing they want to do is precipitate a recession. There 264 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: sufficient geopolitical risk such that it makes even more sense 265 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 1: to be patients. So Judy and the Federal Reserve is 266 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: going to be more accommodative. And the final point I 267 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 1: want to explore his whether Washington, d C. And the 268 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 1: political story can also be accommodative. At the same time, 269 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: we've had a massive towel wind for this market from 270 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: the tax cut. There was some hope that the story 271 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: would shift towards some kind of bipartisan push around infrastructure. 272 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 1: Headlines just crops from Reuters saying that the Trump administration, 273 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 1: together with Cabinat officials have discussed infrastructure. Is that a 274 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 1: pipe during Julian Uh, Well, in in the current Washington climate, 275 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 1: anything with the phrase bipartisan is probably somewhat excessively hopeful. 276 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 1: That having been said, Uh, you know, as an incumbent, 277 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 1: whether you're a Democrat or Republican, you're going to get 278 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 1: to the middle of the year and you're going to 279 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 1: see that the next election cycle is close at hand. 280 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: So from that regard, you could have action moving towards 281 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: infrastructure later in the year, particularly if the economy and 282 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:58,520 Speaker 1: the tax receipts hold up better. Than expected, such that 283 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: the deficit doesn't continu new blowing out. Hey, Julian, loved 284 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 1: the piece of research that just crossed across my desk 285 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 1: from from my team, from you and the team over 286 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 1: at bt i G. The wall is built, but you're 287 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 1: not talking about the wall on the southern border. Is 288 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 1: the good news enough to keep on climbing? And from 289 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: what you've said so far, I can conclude, Julian that 290 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: you think it is bt i G Chief Equity and 291 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 1: to riversist strategist joining us here in New York, Julian 292 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: Emmanuel to run us through some of the price action. 293 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: There are times where a book comes across the desk 294 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: where you say, okay, we're gonna talk about economics and 295 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: international relations and the markets that we're gonna promote. John 296 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: Farrell's The Real Yield. And there's other times you have 297 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: to just rip it up and talk about the book. 298 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 1: We'll do that in a moment. Peppermagram joins us, of course, 299 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 1: on international economics, she served under the younger George Bush 300 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 1: and joins us now, but just quickly here on international economics, 301 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: Klaus Schwab has trotting trotting out the idea this year 302 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: of globalization four point oh hyphen what it means and 303 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:17,880 Speaker 1: how it could benefit us. All that pushes massively against 304 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 1: the zeitgeist, the populism, which says, wait a minute, globalization 305 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 1: is not benefiting all, doesn't it. Yeah, But I agree 306 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: with kush Slob on that one, and I think people 307 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 1: are underestimating how much innovation is occurring and how many 308 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 1: people can participate and be in that innovation. Uh So 309 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 1: I have a very optimistic outlook for the world economy 310 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: of the moment. I have to say, how is globalization 311 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 1: different from Joseph Stiglett's discontent in his book of a 312 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: decade ago, Globalization and It's Discontent. So Josephs view was 313 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 1: there were all these people being left behind. I think 314 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:02,399 Speaker 1: what we're actually is that there's a community of people 315 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:04,880 Speaker 1: who can't get on accord with where the world economy 316 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:07,479 Speaker 1: is going. But that doesn't mean that they have to 317 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: be left behind. So for example, automation, everybody assumes automation 318 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 1: robotics equals unemployment, but in fact what we're seeing is 319 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: since eighteen o four, in the introduction of the very 320 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 1: first robotic, which was the Jackard weaving room, we've had 321 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 1: nothing but more employment, in fact, record employment in China, 322 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: record employment in the United States, in spite of or 323 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: in fact, I would argue because of it. So then 324 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:34,880 Speaker 1: the issue isn't that they're left behind because they can't. 325 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: It's because you won't let the door open. So here's 326 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: my question for CEO is when's the last time you 327 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,639 Speaker 1: hired someone who didn't have a college degree. Because those 328 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 1: people are not stupid, they're just not allowed in. And 329 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: that's the problem I usually, folks. Here I continue with 330 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,240 Speaker 1: Pippa on economics, finance, investment. But Pippa, you've hit the 331 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 1: home run with Chris Lewis with your new book, The 332 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:01,159 Speaker 1: Leadership Lab. Folks, this is a revolution very book. It 333 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 1: reads two d pages, it feels like eight hundred pages 334 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 1: because it is so dense with Bursted one page and 335 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,640 Speaker 1: two page thoughts like it will go from a booming 336 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 1: stock market to it's the same whole world over, living 337 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: in the present but destroying the future, etcetera, etcetera. Pippa, 338 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 1: you open The Leadership Lab with what every single listener feels, 339 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 1: and that is the information overload today? How do you 340 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: move forward? Given the information overload today? So the first 341 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: thing is everybody is so analytical and they have to 342 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 1: be more parenthetical. And what that means just less focused 343 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: on the data and more focused on how people are feeling, 344 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 1: less on the numbers, and more on looking across the 345 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 1: landscape and understanding what's the zeitgeist. And I think this 346 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 1: is something that a lot of our business leaders and 347 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 1: political leaders actually very good at. They're kind of disconnected 348 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,439 Speaker 1: from the zeitgeist. Chef Ray, you go to Richard Edelman, 349 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: folks will be speaking. I believe with Mr Edelman and 350 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,000 Speaker 1: as Edelman trust parameter, we do that every year in Davos. 351 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 1: It's my it's my must read of the year. Just fabulous. 352 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,360 Speaker 1: Fifty six pages from Edelman. And you go right where 353 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 1: Richard Edelman is, Pippo Magram. You say, can we trust 354 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 1: our leaders? How's our trust measurement with our leaders? Right now? 355 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 1: I'm looking at Brexit and I'm looking at the shutdown. 356 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,399 Speaker 1: It's not going very well. And it's like the only 357 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 1: category of leadership where public trust has remained high, interestingly 358 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 1: give the military and so definitely our leaders need to 359 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:40,400 Speaker 1: change how they're interfacing with the public's say, if they 360 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: still feel entightened to the public's trust instead of that 361 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,639 Speaker 1: they have to earn it. That's a totally different mindset, Pippa. 362 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 1: You end your book with what's been the heart and 363 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 1: soul of my work at Bloomberg, which is the a 364 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 1: historical society and a complete understand a misunderstanding of history. 365 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 1: I would you know suggest parenthetic be Folks. It's worse 366 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 1: in America than it is over here in England. Are 367 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 1: we getting more historical now? With the crisis ten years 368 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,880 Speaker 1: ago and with a political crisis now in so many nations? 369 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:15,160 Speaker 1: Are we beginning to learn our history? You know, I'm 370 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 1: not sure that we are. I think what happens instead 371 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 1: is a new generation of both business and political leaders 372 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 1: isn't emerging, and they have a new on how we 373 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: solve problems. We just saw about it in the election. 374 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 1: All than these new members of Congress, a lot of women, 375 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 1: may be people who had no political background. So instead 376 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 1: of going back, what we're doing is going forward. And 377 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: the people who are trying to live in the past 378 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: in a nostalgic environment are so surely being eased off stage. Pippa. 379 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: One final thought, and this, I think, Folks, is really 380 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: subtle in office, but not in power. The leadership presumption 381 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,879 Speaker 1: of winning a democratic election, but you're not quote unquote 382 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 1: in power. Discussed that, yeah, And I think this is 383 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,679 Speaker 1: the thing that everybody feels is like I've got a 384 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,679 Speaker 1: boss upstairs. He's in office, but he isn't a power. 385 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,399 Speaker 1: He doesn't actually know what's happening in the company or 386 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,399 Speaker 1: in the country. And what we need is for people 387 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,920 Speaker 1: to be in office who have power, but that has 388 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 1: to be earned. And so heavily described how you can 389 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 1: restore the trust and your employees, your clients and customers, 390 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 1: your voters. Can't say leadership. I can't say enough about 391 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: this as an airplane book, and folks, I'm not going 392 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,199 Speaker 1: to mince words about it. The Leadership Lab was built 393 00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,399 Speaker 1: to be downloaded on Kindle or you dip into it, 394 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 1: dive into just so Pippamagram and Chris Lewis could get 395 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 1: your brain going on some of the linkages here of 396 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:47,119 Speaker 1: media communication technology with what Pip is so good at, 397 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,520 Speaker 1: which is just fundamental economics. Pippamagram, thank you so much, 398 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: greatly appreciated the Leadership Lab. I'll put that out on 399 00:22:53,640 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 1: social right now. John, I'm gonna bring in Roger Boodle, 400 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 1: but you lead it off with Mr bruddle because I 401 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,200 Speaker 1: don't know where John Farrell wants to go John Roger 402 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 1: Boodle and capital economics one percent e U G d 403 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:25,120 Speaker 1: P in this Brexit mess. Well, maybe Roger can stand 404 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 1: by explanning to us where we are in this Brexit 405 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,439 Speaker 1: mess right now? What's happening, Roger, Well, we are in 406 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 1: a mess. I don't really know what's going to happen. 407 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,480 Speaker 1: Plans always asking me, and it could be a whole 408 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: load of things. Maybe we get a full clean Brexit, 409 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 1: we leave without a deal. It's possible. And maybe we 410 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,439 Speaker 1: don't have a Brexit at all, that's possible. We may 411 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 1: have a general election, another referendum. We may have Mrs 412 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 1: mayos did you name it? Other team? Possible teen. I 413 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: think we get to plan be Monday, and I believe 414 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 1: John Farrell told me Roger that Mrs May is speaking 415 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 1: to European leaders. How does she speak to them after 416 00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 1: that defeat the other day? I don't know quite Frankly, 417 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,360 Speaker 1: I don't know why she hasn't resigned. She hasn't got 418 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,199 Speaker 1: I think, anything more to say. They apparently have not 419 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 1: got anything more to give, So I think this is 420 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 1: all going to be afraid. I'm afraid of completely pointless exercise. Okay, well, 421 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,159 Speaker 1: then we're going to get to Plan B on Monday. 422 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:24,800 Speaker 1: I have no idea what's going to happen there, And 423 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: then we staggered to March twenty nine and all the 424 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 1: Western Roger boodle is a grizzled pro on this. What 425 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:34,679 Speaker 1: are you watching within their path? Well, of course you 426 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,120 Speaker 1: know you have to seasonal just for me, because I'm 427 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 1: a Brexiteer. I support Brexit. What am I looking for? Well, 428 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 1: from my point of view, you see, actually, if there's 429 00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 1: no agreed alternative, the legal default position is that we 430 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 1: leave on the twenty ninth of March. You know, primary 431 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 1: legislation has been passed in the House of Commons to 432 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,320 Speaker 1: that effect. It wants to stop it, then the government 433 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 1: has got to coalace on some other thing. And actually 434 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 1: how that past in the House of Commons. As things 435 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 1: stand at the moment, I can't see what that thing 436 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 1: will be unless it's actually to delay or pull Brexit altogether. 437 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 1: Let's call the economics rider rutal capital economics and the 438 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 1: United States economy. How's the US doing well? It's doing 439 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 1: extremely well up to now, and I think you can 440 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,879 Speaker 1: begin to see signs of things slowing, and indeed we 441 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 1: do think the economy will slow a fair bit a 442 00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 1: variety of reasons. First of all, the Fed's rate rises 443 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 1: that we've had so far, and then also the fading 444 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,679 Speaker 1: effects of the fiscal boost from President Trump. All that should, 445 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 1: I think lead to some sort of slowdown, and you 446 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 1: know we are getting now. I think a pretty convincing 447 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 1: picture of a slowing world. At the moment, the US 448 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:48,199 Speaker 1: sticks out like a sore thumbers being different, but I 449 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,119 Speaker 1: don't think that can last for a long time. If 450 00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,199 Speaker 1: the world really is slowing, then I would affect that 451 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 1: also to flow into the US and cause the US 452 00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:58,840 Speaker 1: to slow as well. What will central bankers do? I mean, 453 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:02,640 Speaker 1: if you've got a slowing theme and capital economic stunning, 454 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 1: one real GDP call for Europe. I'm looking at week 455 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:12,400 Speaker 1: nominal GDP weak animal spirits. Do you just pencil in persistent, chronic, 456 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:18,159 Speaker 1: forever negative interest rates in Germany? I think probably you 457 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,400 Speaker 1: have to. For forever is a very big word, but 458 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 1: for the facture, yeah, I mean, I think my own 459 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,879 Speaker 1: position is that the hero is not going to be sustained. 460 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to sound like Ambro sevens 461 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: Pritchard is writing you a wonderful thematic pieces on Europe. 462 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:39,879 Speaker 1: But how does a banking system sustain and prosper and 463 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:44,480 Speaker 1: do societal good with chronic negative interest rates? I I 464 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 1: that's a none of the textbooks I looked at. Yeah, 465 00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:50,199 Speaker 1: of course it's an aberration, and it's there because the 466 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,080 Speaker 1: European economy is in a mess. And it's in a mess, 467 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: in my view, primarily because of the Euro which should 468 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: never have been formed. And I think both Europe and 469 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,879 Speaker 1: the world will be here off if the euro would 470 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 1: disband it. That's the problem, Uncaulse. The European leaders are 471 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,920 Speaker 1: still staggering on trying to patch the whole thing up 472 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 1: and hoping for the best. Then how how do you 473 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 1: sell I mean, I granted Mr Johnson spoke today and 474 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 1: I'm talking to your folks about a populism where Mr 475 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:19,959 Speaker 1: Johnson has, from what I could tell, am I reading 476 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:25,639 Speaker 1: a very narrow part of the English Whales population and 477 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,639 Speaker 1: certainly of the United Kingdom as well. He wants to 478 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:34,120 Speaker 1: expand that audience. I believe, or take fractured labor politics, 479 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 1: they want to stabilize and expand their audience. I don't 480 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:44,400 Speaker 1: hear anybody reaching out to expand audiences. Do I well. Politically, 481 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,800 Speaker 1: I'm afraid this really is a mess. And the British 482 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:52,120 Speaker 1: people voted to leave the European Unions fairly decisive fifty two. 483 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 1: But our political leaders in Parliament are sharply divided and 484 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,159 Speaker 1: they none of them connect really very well across the 485 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,679 Speaker 1: whole of the country, which is your point. They have 486 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 1: their support as they also have their strong poss Well, 487 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 1: this has been too short. Roger Boodle, thank you so 488 00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,159 Speaker 1: much with Capital economics, and I can't say enough whatever 489 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 1: your politics of terseness of his essays in the Telegraph 490 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 1: make for most reading as well. Thanks for listening to 491 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on 492 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 493 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,600 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can 494 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,840 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.