1 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,600 Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. It's Bloomberg 2 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: dot Com, the Radio plus Mobile Act and on your radio. 3 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business flat from Bloomberg World Handwaters. 4 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 1: I'm Charlie Pellett. Just getting word from the United Kingdom 5 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:20,959 Speaker 1: that Philip Hammond has been named a u K. Chancellor 6 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 1: of the Exchequer and George Osborne has resigned from the government. 7 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:29,479 Speaker 1: The US economy expanded at a modest pace since midway 8 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:33,159 Speaker 1: amidst mid May, amid slight price pressures and some softening 9 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: in consumer spending. That's according to today's page book report 10 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 1: from the Federal Reserve. Stocks are now trading mix. We've 11 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: got the SMP five hundred indecks down to point at fifty, 12 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: a drop there of point one percent, Dow industriels up fifteen, 13 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,840 Speaker 1: a gain of point one percent, and nastak is down nine, 14 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: drop of two tents of one percent. Ten You're up 15 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 1: thirteen thirty seconds. Heal there one point four or six percent. 16 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 1: Gold up eight ninety the ounce to thirteen forty war 17 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: Hire by seven tenths of one percent. Crude big story today, 18 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 1: down two oh six of barrel West Texas Intermediate now 19 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 1: at forty four barrel down four point. I'm Charlie Pellett 20 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 1: and that's a bloomberg business flash. As we leave the 21 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: European Union, we will forge a forge a bold, new 22 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: positive role for ourselves in the world, and we will 23 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,680 Speaker 1: make Britain a country that works not for a privileged few, 24 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 1: but for every one of us. That will be the 25 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: mission of the government I lead, and together we will 26 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 1: build a better Britain, a better Britain. That's what Theresa 27 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 1: May is promising as she takes over as the United 28 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: Kingdom's Prime Minister today, taking the reigns of power from 29 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: former Prime Minister Cameron, forced out by the Brexit vote, 30 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: which he opposed. We're getting some breaking news as we 31 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 1: start this segment now. George Osborne is the first secred 32 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: Terry of State in the UK. He has resigned from 33 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 1: the government, the Prime Minister's Office says, and Philip Hammond 34 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 1: being named the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer. Well, it's 35 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:12,919 Speaker 1: perfect time to bring in our next guest, with Thoma Robbin. 36 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: He's practiced head uh in Europe, based in London for 37 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,799 Speaker 1: the Eurasia Group. He, among other things, worked at the 38 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:23,079 Speaker 1: European Commission's Director at General for Economic and Financial Affairs 39 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: and at the UK Treasury, so he certainly knows all 40 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: sides of this story. Mid welcome back to the show. 41 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: Thank you for having me. Well, let's start with George 42 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: Osborne resigning. According to the Prime Minister's Office, Philip Hammon 43 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: named UK Chancellor of the Exchequer. What did these tell 44 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: us about where Theresa May is taking her government? I 45 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: think I think the most important individual that wes still 46 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: waiting for is, of course, who is going to lead 47 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: the Brexit negotiation. That's the individual thought will be critical 48 00:02:56,200 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 1: for the trajectory of UK EU relation. Now, Philip ammons 49 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: transfer from the Foreign Office to the Treasury on some 50 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: level was expected. He's competent, well placed within the Conservative Party, 51 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: and I think it's seemed to be a safe pair 52 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,839 Speaker 1: of hands in terms of economic management. So I don't 53 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:21,359 Speaker 1: I don't really think there are many surprises from Hammond's appointment. 54 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 1: I think most interesting is going to be which leaves 55 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: candidate Thereason May appoints to lead the negotiations with Europe. 56 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: That's going to be critical. Can you tell us some 57 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 1: names of individuals who you believe will guide the ship 58 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 1: of state safely through the negotiations. Absolutely. I mean, of 59 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: course that at the highest level Thereason May, I think, 60 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 1: is going to be very actively involved on this issue. 61 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: I already anticipate for traveling for bilaterals to meet Angela 62 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: merk Or German Chancellor, the French President, as well as 63 00:03:55,800 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 1: the institutional heads, who said in Brussels there are a 64 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 1: number of names doing the rounds in London. I think 65 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: um Chris Grailing, Speaker of the House of Commons, is 66 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: a potential name. He was a prominent leave member of 67 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 1: the cabinet close to Treason May Andrea led them who 68 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 1: was the obviously a competitor, let's say to Mayo, who 69 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 1: stepped down at the weekend. She's also seen to be 70 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 1: a potential runner for this job, although I don't think 71 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: she's too close to Theresa May, and there'd be some 72 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 1: concerns I think about her negotiating style. David Davis from 73 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: your administ I think he's also in the running. Oliver 74 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 1: let Win, who currently holds the portfolio, she could also 75 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 1: He could also stay in place. I think what's important 76 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: for Theresa May is the internal balance of power within 77 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 1: her cabinets. I think there's a lot of Leaves members 78 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 1: that are likely to ultimately end up in the cabinet cabinet, 79 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: and I'm sure one of those will ultimately have to 80 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 1: lead the Brexit negotiations in order to keep the Tory 81 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: Party happy with the selection of her name, She's the 82 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: right person at the right time. Theresa me or and 83 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: Or to what extent was she considered the safe choice, 84 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: the person everybody could agree on. I think look from 85 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: a from a from a first best perspective, no, I 86 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 1: don't think so, but from a least worst perspective, she's 87 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: absolutely the right candidate. If it was a choice between her, UM, 88 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:34,719 Speaker 1: Andrea Ledson, Michael go or indeed Boris Johnson, then absolutely 89 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 1: she's the best choice. I think Boris Johnson would have 90 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 1: been more willing to do a dirty deal, if I 91 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: can put it like that, over Europe, so essentially willing 92 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: to undo the commitments he made through the referendum on immigration. UM. 93 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: But there were of course a lot of questions about 94 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:56,679 Speaker 1: Boris Johnson's disposition towards foreign policy, world leaders, his general 95 00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: of his general that's a fumbling approach to policy takes. 96 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: So there were a lot of concerns about how suitable 97 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 1: she would be overall as as prime ministry, even if 98 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: on the narrow Europe question he'd be effective. Michael Gove 99 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: Andrea led him. Their problem for both, for both of them, frankly, 100 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: is that their ideas their ideological and their ideologically opposed 101 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: to Europe. So getting a deal with the Europeans when 102 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 1: you have two ideologues at the home I think would 103 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 1: have made things more difficult. Theresa May is pragmatic, she's 104 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: deal she's a deal maker. I think she's oriented in 105 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,159 Speaker 1: that way. She's well known in Europe, she's well liked 106 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,239 Speaker 1: and well respected, and I think for the for those 107 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 1: reasons at this juncture, she she is the right person 108 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:43,679 Speaker 1: for the job. Do you foresee another referendum by another 109 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:48,159 Speaker 1: European country to leave the European Union. I think there's 110 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: absolutely a risk. There is already a referendum in Italy 111 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 1: in October on constitutional reform that will de fact to 112 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:02,159 Speaker 1: be a referendum on the Prime minister, uh Matteo Renzi. 113 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: There's absolutely pressure in the Netherlands ahead of elections next 114 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: year to commit to a referendum. There's a far right 115 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: party led by somebody known as Get World as you 116 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 1: want the party known as the PDV and they're likely 117 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: to be a powerbroker in government formation next year and 118 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 1: they're absolutely looking for a reference, so that's definitely a risk. 119 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 1: Thank you very much for spending time with us. Mutaba 120 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 1: Raman he is the practice head for Europe for the 121 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 1: Eurasia Group based in London, speaking about Theresa May taking 122 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: over as Britain's Prime Minister after her predecessor David Cameron 123 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: tended his resignation to Queen Elizabeth the second you're listening 124 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: to taking Stock. Coming up on taking Stock, we're going 125 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 1: to take a look at the Fed's Beige Book and 126 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: put in the context of rising rate odds, raising rate 127 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 1: high godds in December. That's coming up on Bloomberg Radio.