1 00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 1: Cruel. That's how we're starting the show off today, not 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: with the normal opening. Just cruel. That's what the football 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: gods are to the Buffalo Bills and the Buffalo Bills fans. 4 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: I have to start there. Yes, we're gonna look ahead 5 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: to the championship games. Yes, it's gonna be spectacular. We've 6 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 1: got some great matchups with some fantastic stories. But cruel. 7 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: It is so harsh to think of the Buffalo Bills 8 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 1: losing to the Chiefs again, this time at home, and 9 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: also to have a field goal go wide right to 10 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 1: do it. It's so cruel, you know, Pat Fitzmoreris, Sam 11 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 1: hoppin here with me, Joey p Jope's a pea. We 12 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 1: have to start there because I want you, if you 13 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 1: know a Buffalo Bills fan today, to take it easy 14 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: on them. Because my daughter is a Chiefs fan and 15 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 1: her math teacher is a Bills fan, and they've been 16 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:52,519 Speaker 1: doing football stuff all year, and she wore her mahomes 17 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: jersey day to school and Pat fitz Morris I told 18 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: her take it easy on mister g today because he's 19 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: a middle aged Bills fan and he's been through a lot. 20 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: Would you agree that that was good advice. I gave 21 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: my daughter. 22 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 2: Today outstanding advice. Joe, and one of my oldest and 23 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,320 Speaker 2: dearest friends is not only a Buffalo Bills fan, he's 24 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,559 Speaker 2: also Green Bay Green Bay Packers fan. He was born 25 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:18,039 Speaker 2: in Buffalo, raised in Wisconsin. So he had that dual 26 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 2: kick in the teeth this weekend. And man like the 27 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,040 Speaker 2: Bills can do it against the Chiefs in the regular season, 28 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 2: and they just cannot get over that hump in the playoffs. 29 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,320 Speaker 2: They are sisyphus pushing the rock up the hill, only 30 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 2: for that boulder to just roll back over their bodies 31 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 2: time and time again. I feel terrible for Bills fans. 32 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,399 Speaker 1: Yeah, look, we feel good for the Lions fans. They 33 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: came out with the victory. They're going to travel to 34 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: San Francisco for the evening game here on Sunday. That's 35 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: gonna be great. But they've got to do it now 36 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: on the road, and that's gonna be a huge thing. 37 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: We're going to talk about that game. Patrick mahomes I 38 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: laid down the gauntlet last week on this show. I said, 39 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: the best thing, the best tonic for this team is 40 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: to be an underdog and go on the road, get 41 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: rid of all the voices in your head. Just get 42 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: out of it, go beat up the Miami Dolphins and 43 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: that sub zero temperatures, then go on the road as 44 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: the underdog for a change. And I think it's exactly 45 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: what the Chiefs needed. They came out victorious, so great game, 46 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: another great one. And look, Sam, your Packers were right there. 47 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 1: I mean, they had it in their hands, and I 48 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: don't want to you know, I'm frustrated because I think 49 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: it's it's one of these things like you're just happy 50 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 1: to be there. I get that, but man, I think 51 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: you'd be happier if you were playing Sunday, wouldn't you. 52 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:33,839 Speaker 3: Yeah, especially in Detroit with a chance to know one 53 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 3: more time, beat up little brother again, and you know 54 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 3: it's you know, I tweeted this out like the Packers 55 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 3: were playing with house money. The frustrating part is that 56 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 3: it was a winnable game, and obviously both teams had 57 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 3: certain things go their way, whether it was the turnovers 58 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 3: that San Francisco forced, you know, some of the clock 59 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 3: management stuff that San Francisco sort of gave to to 60 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 3: greed Bay. But I think really speaks to the margin 61 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 3: of error that San Francisco has to win right now, 62 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 3: and how much they need to go wrong for them 63 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 3: in order to take a loss. And you know, you 64 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,960 Speaker 3: had the end of a half situation where they go 65 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 3: down and miss the field goal, Deebo Samuel gets hurt, 66 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 3: Rock Perdy is not playing a great game at all, 67 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 3: and they still come away with the win. Now, you 68 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 3: could say, well, they got lucky in some respects, but 69 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 3: they they only need a couple parts of their their 70 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 3: team to fire on all cylinders for them to win. 71 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 3: So it's going to make this NFC Championship game a 72 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 3: challenge for Detroit and going back to Buffalo. Like, I 73 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 3: don't I feel bad for Bills fans. I don't feel 74 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 3: bad for the Bills. They they they were playing not 75 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 3: to win that game. They started that final drive with 76 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 3: over eight minutes left. Like trying to put together an 77 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 3: eight minute drive to kick a field goal and send 78 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 3: it to overtime, you're just asking for trouble. 79 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, there were a lot of moments in that game too. 80 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,039 Speaker 1: That and Josh Allen had some bad moments of that game. 81 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,279 Speaker 1: Also the Chiefs. You know, it's funny you look at 82 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 1: the score and you think, oh, it's a really close game. 83 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: But I never felt like at any point that the 84 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 1: Chiefs somehow were going to win. I felt like defensively, 85 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 1: they had a plan, they knew what they were doing. 86 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,720 Speaker 1: And look, we didn't even talk yet about Lamar Jackson's 87 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: incredible one hundred yard rush performance, which by the way, 88 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 1: I predicted on the FP show, just in case you 89 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 1: go back and watch the tape. That's why I love 90 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: having the tape. Sometimes sometimes it's bad because sometimes I 91 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: guess stuff wrong, but it's great when things go right. 92 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 1: But Lamar are playing like MVP in that defense, playing 93 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 1: so well too. But we're gonna get to all these 94 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,919 Speaker 1: games here, don't forget everybody. Make sure you subscribe to 95 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Drop your comments below. You 96 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: could win a one year free premium upgrade. And it's 97 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: not just football, because we got the golf stuff going 98 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,119 Speaker 1: on right now. Pat and Bow are taking through golf 99 00:04:58,120 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: season is going to be right around the corner here. 100 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:03,119 Speaker 1: For We've also got the NBA show Fast Break Bets 101 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 1: every Wednesday every Friday live eleven am Eastern right here 102 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 1: on the channel, So make sure you join us for 103 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:09,919 Speaker 1: all of that. But gentlemen, we're here to look ahead. 104 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: We had to look back to look Ahead and the 105 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 1: first game on the slate is the Kansas City Chiefs 106 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 1: again going on the road again, underdogs again the number 107 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 1: three and a half, this time to Baltimore. Where As 108 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 1: I said, the Baltimore Ravens, look, they held the Houston 109 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:26,840 Speaker 1: Texans offense that was flying high last week against the 110 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns were of the best defense on the planet. 111 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: They held them to three points because the other touchdown 112 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 1: that came from specialty, So I don't even want to 113 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: count that. That defense was brilliant. Interesting spot here two, 114 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: because Joe Toney is going to be getting tests today, 115 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: He's going to be out. That's a very important piece 116 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: missing from that offensive line for the Chiefs. Metabeak Way, 117 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: who's been so good thirteen sacks. I believe on the 118 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:53,480 Speaker 1: season of memory serves Pat this could be a problem 119 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: here up front. This is one of those matchups to watch. 120 00:05:56,360 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 1: But look, Lamar MVP, the MVPs is Oracley last few 121 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: years have not done great in terms of winning Super Bowls, 122 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 1: but we all think Lamar's gonna be that guy and 123 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:07,839 Speaker 1: get that award. So what do you make of this? 124 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:09,919 Speaker 1: It feels right? Forty four and a half is the 125 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,039 Speaker 1: number plus one forty four the Kansasity Chiefs on the 126 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: money line. Pat, I keep coming back to that, is 127 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:17,919 Speaker 1: that's the best value. The value is Patrick Mahomes playing underdog. 128 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, And I think that's exactly what they needed. 129 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 1: They got it last week. Can they do it again? 130 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: I say yes? I know last week you were kind 131 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: of hedging about it. What do you think about now 132 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: that the stakes have been raised and now you got 133 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: to play Lamar and Baltimore. 134 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 2: Boy, I like the Ravens here, Joe, okay, And it 135 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 2: is tough to go against Patrick Mahomes, no question about it. 136 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 2: But the Ravens were the only runaway winner in this 137 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 2: past weekend. You know, they were tied at halftime after 138 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 2: the uncharacteristic special team's gaff giving up the long punk 139 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 2: return touchdown, and then they just stomped on the accelerator 140 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 2: and trampled the Texans in the second half, twenty four 141 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 2: to nothing in the second half. And it was every 142 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 2: bit as dominance as the score would indicate. Credit the 143 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 2: Chiefs were pulling out that win against Buffalo. But you 144 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 2: said it, Joe, like the Bills seemed to be playing 145 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 2: like not to win that game and they were just 146 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 2: not really challenging the Bills at all downfield with the 147 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 2: passing game. The Bills made some critical mistakes, obviously the 148 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 2: missed field goal. Josh Allen missfires on two passes on 149 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 2: that drive that could have gotten the Bills closer or 150 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 2: maybe gotten them into the end zone. So like, it 151 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 2: wasn't a super convincing win for the Chiefs, and I man, 152 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 2: I can't get off the memory of the Chiefs going 153 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 2: three and five over that stretch from late October to 154 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 2: late December, when they lost games to the Broncos, the Eagles, 155 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 2: the Packers, the Bills, and the Raiders on Christmas Day 156 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 2: where they were just terrible. You know, the Bills were 157 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 2: pretty banged up in the secondary, and I think the 158 00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 2: Chiefs took advantage of that to some extent. I mean, 159 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 2: Marquez felt this scantling was out there making plays. I 160 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 2: wouldn't expect two battles, Joe. I would not expect lightning 161 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 2: to strike twice or three times, I guess in this case, 162 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 2: and you can run on the Chiefs. And I think 163 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 2: the Ravens are going to endeavor to run on the Chiefs. 164 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 2: We saw how many times they ran the ball against 165 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 2: the Texans. The Chiefs are twenty seventh in DVA against 166 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 2: the run. They let Josh Allen make some plays in 167 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 2: the running game this past weekend. You know, Lamar Jackson 168 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 2: is going to make some plays in the running game. 169 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 2: And you mentioned that the Chiefs the Dooney injury. They 170 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 2: had lost three defensive guys Sunday nights. I don't know 171 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 2: what the status of these guys is, but they had 172 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:46,680 Speaker 2: safety Mike Edwards, linebacker Willie Gay, and cornerback Trent McDuffie. 173 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 2: I'll leave the game with injuries, so we're gonna have 174 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:53,080 Speaker 2: to pay attention to that. The Massy Peabody ratings suggest 175 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,840 Speaker 2: this line should maybe be closer to a touchdown. I 176 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 2: think there's value in betting the Ravens here. I'm not 177 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:01,599 Speaker 2: really interested in the Chiefs. Don't see any value on 178 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 2: the total. I think the total is about right. 179 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree the total spot on. I'm running away 180 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: from the total. So good case there made by Pat 181 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: for the Ravens. I'm going to counterpoint that and then 182 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 1: send it to you, Sam, because if you look at 183 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: you know, the Houston Texans coming into Baltimore, they're still 184 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 1: a very green team and they hung there with them 185 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: for the whole first half of that game. Maybe you say, well, 186 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 1: they had a week off, they're a little flat, and 187 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 1: that's normal that happens. They were very confident. They came 188 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 1: out there. Harball was very confident, came out there. They 189 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 1: asserted their dominance, as Pat said, twenty four to nothing 190 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 1: in the second half of that game. That's the Houston Texans. 191 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,680 Speaker 1: This is Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and typically the best 192 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 1: quarterback and coach combination does win out. Now, I'm not 193 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: saying the Lamar Harpball combination is not a good one. 194 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: It's a very good one. But is it the best 195 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 1: one in this game? Sam? Where do you see this contest? 196 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: What do you see any value here in the look 197 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: ahead between the Chiefs and the Ravens. 198 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 3: I've been bouncing back and forth on this one all morning. 199 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 3: I think that made a lot of great points in 200 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 3: terms of, you know, the weaknesses that the Kansas City 201 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:08,680 Speaker 3: defense has in terms of the run, and you know, 202 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson has not been the best against the Blitz 203 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 3: this year, which Steve Spagnolo, can you know, find a 204 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 3: lot of ways to to to pressure Lamar Jackson. I mean, 205 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:22,079 Speaker 3: there are a couple of times where Lamar is just 206 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 3: dropping back and back and back and then ends up 207 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 3: getting sacked. But again with these games, we're trying to 208 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:32,680 Speaker 3: find very niche things. I think the Ravens have this 209 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 3: slight coaching advantage from a game management and you know, 210 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 3: just overall decision making standpoint, like what Andy Reid is 211 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 3: doing in the red zone is a little suspect, you know, 212 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 3: taking the five yards on the kickoff instead of trusting 213 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 3: your offense to get one. 214 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: Yard after fumbling a second time, and then he fumbled 215 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 1: a second time. How about that? That's question, Well we 216 00:10:58,120 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: have but Checo why not just hand the ball to him? 217 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 3: It's thing. It's things like that. And you know, the 218 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 3: Ravens won on Saturday, but they also won on Sunday 219 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 3: because whoever was coming out of that divisional game between 220 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:16,199 Speaker 3: the Bills and the Chiefs was coming out extremely banged up. 221 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 3: And health is a huge thing at this part in 222 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:23,559 Speaker 3: the season. You know, even losing guy, you know, losing 223 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 3: Guy's hurts, but it's also the continuity you don't have 224 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:29,560 Speaker 3: on the offensive line for someone like the Chiefs like 225 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 3: that is going to be huge. I don't think too 226 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 3: many plays in the game this week, you know, and 227 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 3: this Baltimore defense is a much different beast than Buffalo's was. 228 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 3: Buffalo was was banged up going into the game, and 229 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 3: Baltimore just has dudes on every level. I mean, Jenavian 230 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 3: Clowney is playing really well. The combination Rocan Swith Smith 231 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 3: and Patrick Queen at linebacker and then Kyle Hamilton at 232 00:11:57,040 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 3: safety playing incredible. Like I think I'm talking to myself 233 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 3: into Baltimore. It just seems like it's sort of their year. 234 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 3: And you know, last week we had the privilege of 235 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 3: taking Patrick Mahomes as an underdog and that money line 236 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 3: turned out to be great and it was awesome. But 237 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 3: this this Baltimore has just seemed like a complete team 238 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,679 Speaker 3: the entire year. And yes they've had a couple fourth 239 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 3: quarter baffles throughout the regular season, but I mean, you 240 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 3: saw the way that the Ravens offense was able to 241 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 3: adjust to the defensive game plan that Houston had. They 242 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 3: turned it on. You know, I'm talking myself to Baltimore here. 243 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: Okay, Well, I will stand on my island alone and 244 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 1: I will be drinking the red kool aid, the red 245 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: kool aid. But look, it's gonna surprise you if Baltimore 246 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: wins now, of course not. As you said, Sam, They've 247 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: been the most complete AFC team most of the year. 248 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 1: I don't think anything that happened though with those you know, 249 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 1: the bad run that the Chiefs had, because the most 250 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: dangerous team is always the team that gets hot at 251 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,840 Speaker 1: the end. And I don't know right now, the last 252 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,839 Speaker 1: two weeks watching the Chiefs play football, they're starting to 253 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: feel like the Chiefs again, and that's all they needed 254 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 1: to do is flip the switch, and my goodness, that 255 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: would be something. Let's get to the NFC the late 256 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 1: game here, six point thirty pm Eastern. They're gonna have 257 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine ers taking on and hosting 258 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:23,359 Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions. The number on this right now consensus 259 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 1: at betting pros is minus six and a half fo 260 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine ers, which feels right. They 261 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 1: should be a touchdown point favorite in this game to me, 262 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 1: that spot on the fifty one is the number right 263 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: now consensus wise. That to me also feels pretty close. 264 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 1: If anything, I'm leaning towards the under in this one. 265 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 1: Then you have Detroit for the upset of plus two 266 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 1: to fifty You're getting a great value there if you 267 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 1: want to just throw half a unit just to see 268 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 1: the Lions can pull off the true Cinderella dance. And 269 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: we saw some chinks in the armor. We saw some 270 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 1: weaknesses there from the forty nine ers that can be exploited. So, Sam, 271 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:01,439 Speaker 1: can Allions cover? Can a Lions win? Does this total disappoint? 272 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 1: Does it come through? What do you see here when 273 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 1: you're looking into the NFC Championship game. 274 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 3: To answer both of your first two questions, yes, I 275 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 3: think the Lions can cover and I think they can 276 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 3: win out right as well. I mentioned obviously earlier in 277 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 3: the show the margin of error that this forty nine 278 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 3: Ers team has, but on the whole, if you look 279 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 3: at the last two months, when was the last time 280 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 3: they played like a great game? I mean, I mean 281 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 3: might have been the game against Philadelphia, and look how 282 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 3: they turned out. Like their strength of schedule has not 283 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 3: been great. They obviously lost to you a very good 284 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 3: Ravens team, and. 285 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: Let's be honest, they got their yeah. 286 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, And obviously Detroit like has their weaknesses as well, 287 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 3: like their secondary I think can be had. I think 288 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 3: Brandon Aiyuk has probably a monster game in this one, 289 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 3: but the procedural air with Kyle Shanahan again, this is 290 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 3: where the coaching decision making comes into play. Dan Campbell 291 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 3: is light years ahead of Kyle Shanahan right now in 292 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 3: terms of decision making. We've seen Ben Johnson continue to 293 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 3: crush it at offensive coordinator. I think, you know, we 294 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 3: saw last week that Aaron Jones gashed this forty nine 295 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 3: Ers run defense, and I just think Jamirik Gibbs will 296 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 3: be able to do the same thing. And finally, like 297 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 3: it's he's not playing much better, but I think the 298 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 3: better quarterback is getting the points in this game. Jared Goff, 299 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 3: you know, for all his blunders, has played really well. 300 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 3: He's made some good throws again, perty we've started to 301 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 3: see some chinks in the armor there and I mentioned 302 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 3: it last week too. This Lion's defense, I think is 303 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 3: better than we give them credit for, especially their run defense. 304 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 3: They're not I don't know if Deebo Samue is going 305 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 3: to play. It sounds like he's fifty to fifty right now. 306 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 3: I'm maybe he does play because it is a playoff game, 307 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 3: like and you just sort of battle through those injuries. 308 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 3: But I love I raced to Detroit here. Okay, I'm 309 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 3: I'm in on them, and I think they have a 310 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 3: great shot to pull the upset here. 311 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: Now, normally were of concerns about Jared Goff playing on 312 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: the road, but it's more the elements than is the road. Now, 313 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 1: this was a rainy game you had this past Sunday. 314 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 1: I'm not exactly sure what we're looking at here in 315 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: terms of weather on Sunday. It's a little early to look. 316 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 1: But Pat, i mean, Sam makes a lot of good 317 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: points here about when it comes down to those management 318 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: skills of a head coach, that Dan Campbell has the 319 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 1: edge there. Certainly the secondary of the Detroit Lions is 320 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 1: a problem like that's that's it's not a great unit here. Now. 321 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 1: The interesting thing is they don't give up a lot 322 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: of penalties, like not a lot of you know, p 323 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 1: I penalties or things like that. So you know, maybe 324 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: that's just something. Maybe that's why they give up so much. 325 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 1: Maybe Dan Campbe would rather than just you know, live 326 00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 1: and die on what they do is about of giving up, 327 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: you know, those moments in the games. But to me, 328 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: this is all about pressure on Purty. If Hutchinson can 329 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 1: get home, if they can put some serious pressure on 330 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: Rock Purty. Rock Purty is very vulnerable, and I think 331 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: coming off that game last week, I think it's very 332 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: clear that you could certainly continue to, you know, get 333 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 1: him to hear the ghosts and see the ghosts a 334 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 1: little bit, and you might have some opportunities there to 335 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 1: make Rock Purty make some mistakes. So, Pat, do you 336 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 1: see any value early in this line that feels pretty 337 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 1: spot on? I mean, Sam's confidence in the lines is 338 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 1: very strong. Is yours the same plays? 339 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, everything you guys have said so far. What really 340 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 2: tickles me is the idea that Dan Campbell might have 341 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 2: the coaching advantage over Kyle Shanahan. But as far as 342 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 2: aggression and playing the percentages on certain in certain offensive situations, 343 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 2: I kind of think that's maybe the case. You said it, Joe, 344 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 2: I really do think Rock Purty is the key guy 345 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 2: in this game, and he has been pretty good this 346 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 2: season for the most part, whenever he has had the 347 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 2: full complement of pass catchers with Deebo, Samuel Brandon, Aiyuk, 348 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 2: George Kittle. He had that on Saturday night against the 349 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 2: Packers and struggled. He has struggled before in the rain, 350 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 2: he struggled. He had the glove to start the game, 351 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:14,680 Speaker 2: he took it off. I mean there was the one 352 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 2: play where he dropped back and was like trying to 353 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 2: wipe off his hand while he's sitting in the pocket 354 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:23,120 Speaker 2: scanning the field. Apparently the forecast is for no rain 355 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:25,720 Speaker 2: this weekend, so that might be a relief to forty 356 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 2: nine Ers fans. But yeah, that is the thing, the 357 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 2: one Achilles Heel the Lions have as their pass defense. 358 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 2: Can brock Purdy take advantage of that if he doesn't 359 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 2: have Deebo. Samuel sam mentioned it's fifty to fifty even 360 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 2: if Deebo plays the way he plays and how physical 361 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,680 Speaker 2: his style is and how he is just this after 362 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 2: the catch beast, I wonder if he'll make it through 363 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 2: the game even if he does play. And that's the thing. 364 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 2: He is such a key guy for Brock Purty because 365 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 2: the kind of completions the Deebo gets, they're the easy, 366 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 2: the easy pitch and catch and let dee ball work 367 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:07,440 Speaker 2: as magic after the catch. If he doesn't have that, 368 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 2: we saw Party really struggle like Brandon Ayuk was not 369 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 2: able to pick up the slack. Brandon Ayuk is a 370 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:16,959 Speaker 2: different type of player. He beats defense's downfield rock Purty. 371 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 2: I mean, like the one key catch that Ayuk had 372 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:23,159 Speaker 2: in that game was that third down conversion and Perdy 373 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 2: threw it at his feet and Ayuk made this great 374 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 2: shoe string catch on the run, like Purdy's ball placement 375 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 2: was terrible, and if we see that continued, he'd be 376 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 2: the case. If we do see Steve Hutchinson turn up 377 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 2: the heats man like perty's gonna have to click for 378 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,359 Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers to win this game convincingly, I 379 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 2: think it's possible they do. The forty nine Ers have 380 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,959 Speaker 2: been a terrific team for the most part all season, 381 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 2: with a few hiccups the three game losing streak at 382 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 2: mid season. But man, I do think the value here 383 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:58,239 Speaker 2: is with the forty nine or with the Lions. And uh, 384 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 2: we did see Aaron Joe and the Packers run all 385 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,680 Speaker 2: over them. You know, the Lions are going to try 386 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 2: to run the ball with the thunder and lightning combo 387 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,880 Speaker 2: of David Montgomery and Jamior Gibbs, I think they're gonna 388 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 2: have some success. The forty nine Ers run defense has 389 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 2: not been as good as it has been in the past, 390 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 2: so yeah, not only do I like the Lions. I 391 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 2: want to see if I can get this at seven, 392 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 2: because when I checked DraftKings right before the show, it 393 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:28,159 Speaker 2: was six and a half forty nine ers, but juiced 394 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 2: a little to the forty nine ers, so I think 395 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,400 Speaker 2: we could see that tick up to seven. If it's seven, 396 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 2: I'm gonna grab the Lions and I am going to 397 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 2: put that half unit money line bet down that you 398 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 2: talked about Joe on the Lions like lost two fifty. 399 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 2: I think the pot odds on a plus two to 400 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 2: fifty bet are pretty good here. I think the Lions 401 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 2: have a very realistic chance of winning this game. 402 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,199 Speaker 1: I love it. Some great points there from the boys, 403 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 1: But what do you think? Drop your comments below in 404 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:57,400 Speaker 1: the YouTube channel. What are your picks for NFL Championship Weekend? 405 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 1: Two great games too, great narratives, some great storylines, some 406 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,360 Speaker 1: familiar faces, and some new ones too. Those guys from 407 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,679 Speaker 1: Detroit don't typically make it this far into January, so 408 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 1: that's gonna be a lot of fun. Those Lions fans, Well, 409 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: if you live in the state of Michigan right now, 410 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,640 Speaker 1: you're feeling pretty good about life. I gotta say things 411 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 1: are going pretty well for you there. So those Michigan 412 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 1: folks enjoy the ride while lasts and the Buffalo folks again. 413 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 1: If you know a Bill's fan, give him a hug today. Yeah, 414 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 1: give them a piece of chocolate something just you know, 415 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 1: buy him a coffee or maybe a stiff drink because 416 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: they could certainly use it. It's been a rough, rough 417 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: couple of years for them or a couple decades, depending 418 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 1: on your perspective. That'll do it for us, But the 419 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Sam and Pat. 420 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids, Enjoy 421 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 1: Championship Sunday. 422 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 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