1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome. All right. Here we 3 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 2: go throwing into spect So I'm saying it's a catch 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 2: touchdown that we. 5 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 3: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 3: to win. God, that's incredible. 7 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 1: Big banksmall banks. 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the 9 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: ultimate kabash. 10 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 4: You want to pack. 11 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 3: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast 12 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 3: presented by the Fanduels Sportsbook. I'm your host today, Brendan Glaschen. Folks, 13 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 3: the time is nearing, it is very near. NFL football 14 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 3: will be on our calendars as of August third. Yeah, 15 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 3: preseason football Baby Hall of Fame game between the Jets 16 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 3: and the Browns Underway and Canton on Thursday, August third. 17 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:00,279 Speaker 3: So that begs the question, how do you bet on 18 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 3: the NFL preseason? I don't have many answers, so we 19 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 3: bring in a couple of guests today. Our director of 20 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 3: predictive analytics at Action Network, Sean Kerner. You may have 21 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 3: seen his work, of course at Action network dot com 22 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 3: in the app. Also the author co author of the 23 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 3: NFL Luck Rankings, and we also have professional NFL better 24 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 3: Simon Hunter. You can hear him on the Favorites podcast 25 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 3: with Chad Millman. He is the co host of that show. So, 26 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 3: as I said, fellas preseason football jets Browns, they get 27 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 3: things going on Thursday, August third. You know, the NFL 28 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 3: preseason has that reputation we're out degenerates. Enjoy this. It 29 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 3: gives you that itch to get set for Week one. 30 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 3: Maybe you're a college football better too. He just needs 31 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,479 Speaker 3: something to sink your teeth into before the real games begin. 32 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 3: But there can be some edgitts, from what I understand, 33 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 3: some significant edges on betting preseason football. Sean Kerner, I'll 34 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 3: go to you first. What's your general outlook of preseason 35 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 3: football and how you dive into it. 36 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, I yes, you know you could call it degenerate 37 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 4: in the sense that neither team is necessarily trying to 38 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 4: win the game. So it's interesting, you know, betting on 39 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 4: a game in that context. But I think if you're 40 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:15,239 Speaker 4: paying attention closely like I am, you know, I'm projecting 41 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 4: every player for every game for daily fantasy projections, for 42 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 4: player props, so I have a good sense on like 43 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 4: which players will be on the field win. When you 44 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 4: have that level of like information, you can have a 45 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 4: big edge, and there's a bunch of different ways to 46 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 4: use information, whether it's betting on like just the first quarter, 47 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 4: just the first half, or waiting endgame to find a spot. 48 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of situations in scenarios where 49 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 4: you can find some massive edges in preseason. 50 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 3: Simon your takeaways on when you see the line come out. 51 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 3: We'll get into Jets Browns before we conclude the program, 52 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:53,359 Speaker 3: just to use it as an example. But when you 53 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 3: look at preseason football, what comes to mind. 54 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 2: It's evolved a lot over the years. 55 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,959 Speaker 1: I would say before it was nationally legalized, it was 56 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,799 Speaker 1: definitely hard to get money down on the preseason. And 57 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 1: then I'll never forget that first year that New Jersey 58 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 1: legalized and they were taking bets on the preseason. It 59 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: was probably one of the most fun I've ever had, 60 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: right because the books didn't limit people. They're happy to 61 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: take money because they were just excited for people to 62 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: come in bet football, and there was four preseason games, 63 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 1: so it was honestly, I didn't even realize it was 64 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: kind of the golden age of preseason football because now 65 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 1: it's tight. The books know that, especially if I have 66 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: a model. You can get a big, big advantage on 67 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: these books in preseason, so it's. 68 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 2: Tough, man. 69 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: It's tough to get money down now, you really have 70 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: to work at it. Regular season. It might be a 71 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: little tough Sunday night, Monday morning and Tuesday to get 72 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,960 Speaker 1: money down. But come Wednesday Thursday, the books they'll take 73 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: your money. Yes, the average layman fan maybe they're betting 74 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 1: five dollars on the preseason game, but the professionals are 75 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: betting big money because they're seeing big advantages. 76 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 2: It's about how good your sources are. But it's also. 77 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 1: About knowing these different coaches like Andy Reid, this old 78 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: guard coach. He played Mahomes in two of the three 79 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: preseason games last year. He might play him in the third, 80 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 1: and I forget if he actually did play in the 81 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: throw one, but he had him playing a lot of 82 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: time in the preseason and his reasoning was sound. He said, 83 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: Tyrek Hill is gone. I need him to get. 84 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 2: Comfortable these new our receivers. So those are little things. 85 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: Are looking for those little details of just because of 86 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 1: a veteran coach. A veteran quarterback doesn't either going to 87 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: Sean mcvayh right Truan McVay does not care about the preseason. 88 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 1: You will not play Stafford at all. He won't play 89 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: many starters. Those are things Over the years you kind 90 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 1: of learn the rhythm of these different coaches. I really 91 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 1: take away from it. It's really professionals. I really bet it. 92 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 1: In the general public, it's like a warm up, right, 93 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 1: It's like them getting back into football mode. If you're 94 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 1: just betted casually, right, you're not putting work, You're not 95 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: really studying. Now listening to these kind of smart podcasts 96 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: we're doing here at Action Network, go small, don't go 97 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 1: overboard because to me, preseasons where you should be putting 98 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: a lot of working to get good information. You can't 99 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: just make your lazy bets on it. Try to going 100 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 1: with the game plan. That's really important here betting preseason football. 101 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:53,839 Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of those lessons can carry over to 102 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,159 Speaker 3: into the regular season. I would imagine as it pertains 103 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 3: to studying and sources. As you said, digesting the correct 104 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 3: information matters. And the key word there is correct, because 105 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 3: is a lot of information just smoke? Is it? Just 106 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 3: how much do you buy into what a coach says? 107 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:13,840 Speaker 3: How much do you buy into a quarterback competition or 108 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 3: that wide receiver six or seven, trying to make a roster. 109 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,280 Speaker 3: There's so many levels to it, So Kerner, when you're 110 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 3: going about preparing, I don't want to give away too 111 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 3: much to what the model is, but when you're processing information, 112 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 3: what are some dues and don'ts. 113 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, you always have to take everything with the grain 114 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:35,719 Speaker 4: of salt. And just over the years, I've understood the 115 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 4: coach speak when it comes to preseason, So I mean, 116 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:43,040 Speaker 4: really what it comes down to when I'm modeling for 117 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 4: game projections is knowing which quarterback is going to be 118 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:48,840 Speaker 4: in the game when because they're usually attached to that 119 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:53,600 Speaker 4: entire unit. So when you know Simon mentioned Patrick Mahomes 120 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 4: is playing last year, he's on the field with the 121 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 4: first team offense, and then when he comes out and 122 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 4: blamed Gabbert come in this year, he's attached to the 123 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 4: second team offense. So you have situations where you have 124 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,279 Speaker 4: a team really wanting to get the first unit, like 125 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,919 Speaker 4: a full quarter of work, where the other team, you know, 126 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 4: they just have the second union, they're barely trying. In 127 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:15,919 Speaker 4: those spots is when I like to attack, and you 128 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 4: have to be, you know, certain that it's going to happen, 129 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 4: and again it's taking years to kind of understand that. 130 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:23,719 Speaker 4: But what I do is I actually put together this 131 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 4: information and package it up in like QB estimated playing 132 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 4: time for other people to digest. So I think that's 133 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 4: one of the best ways to kind of understand the 134 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 4: flow of the game and maybe look for in game 135 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 4: betting opportunities. But that's really when it comes to preseason betting. 136 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 4: That's all I'm doing is just trying to digest as 137 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 4: much information as possible and update my projections and everything 138 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 4: as that comes in. 139 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 3: So I'm and how about you know, and Carter mentions 140 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 3: quarterbacks will have situations more so to me at least 141 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 3: you look at like the AFC South, where you're going 142 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 3: to have an Anthony Richardson, a CJ. Stroud get their 143 00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 3: first real crack at it, and some other scenarios like 144 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 3: Tampa jumps out when you got Baker Mayfield and a 145 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,799 Speaker 3: second round pick in Kyle Trask. Is there a legitimate 146 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 3: competition Mac Jones Bailey ZAPPI just another example where a 147 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 3: Zappy or a Trask might end up getting significant time 148 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 3: because they want to see what they have. So when 149 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 3: it comes to digesting info what comes to mind. 150 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, that'suff definitely important right to me. The quarterback position, 151 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: I mean, anyone knows is it's everything right and football. 152 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 1: That's how a lot of our models are built out 153 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 1: around the quarterback position. They affect the line where any 154 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 1: other position to sign and close. So to me, preseason, 155 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: that's one of my favorite things about it. It's I'm 156 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: learning about these quarterbacks that yes they're irrelevant, but there's 157 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: always that Rock Party, right, that's that guy where when 158 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: Brock Purty came on the scene, I need to go 159 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 1: back to preseason and watch his film and kind of 160 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: figure out what this kid is. And honestly didn't help 161 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: me at all when I went back and watched his film, 162 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 1: because you really couldn't see how this kid's just clutch, 163 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 1: Like when when there's a three hundred pounds lineman in 164 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: his face, he makes that right read that Shanahan likes 165 00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: him to read like. It's just I love Trey Lance. 166 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 1: I think Trey Lance is way better than Rock Purty. 167 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: But Brock Purdy is already back from his arm injury. 168 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: That's a big deal for them this preseason, right, We're 169 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 1: gonna see either Brock Purty taking those reps or if 170 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: he's not, now the four Niners have Trey Lance and 171 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 1: then if he's not playing, it's Sam Darnold. So to me, 172 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: that's a big advantage if you're taking the forty nine 173 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 1: ers this year in preseason where you know the Eagles, Yes, 174 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: Jalen Hurt's probably gonna play that much. It's Mariota, right, 175 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 1: he's gonna be one playing for the Eagles this preseason. 176 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 1: That might give you a little more value to taking him. Right, 177 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: a veteran quarterback over say a guy who is going 178 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: to be playing for the Bucks. Right, that kid Trask 179 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 1: is a second third year player. If it's in versus Mariota, 180 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:37,679 Speaker 1: you're probably gonna give this give the advantage to Mariota 181 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 1: in that matchup. Now, if it's all of Tampa's number 182 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: one starters, that that again will move the line. So 183 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 1: that's one of those where quarterback is very important preseason, 184 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 1: but it's also are the starters playing who's resting? Thanks 185 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: Sean Nyale on the head, you really you really have 186 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 1: to learn what teams are bs and who are keeping 187 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: who are telling the truth because some coaches they'll flat 188 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: out a lot of the media right before the kickoff, right, 189 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 1: They'll be like, yeah, I'll never forget Zekle Elliott was 190 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: fully dressed. So was Dak For the Cowboys last year, 191 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 1: I did a large wager on the Dallas Cowboys in 192 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 1: the first half. They played one series, they got a 193 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 1: first down, then he took them out. So that's what 194 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 1: it says. You do need to be wary of these coaches. 195 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 1: They might want to just see one little thing. If 196 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,439 Speaker 1: they see it, they're happy taking their guys out. So 197 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: that's why I always tell people be careful of betting 198 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: a lot because it's so much misinformation. That to me, 199 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 1: is most important here is you're kind of getting a 200 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: basis here for the quarterback position. That's really what you 201 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 1: want to be focused on preseason? Are the quarterbacks? Not 202 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,439 Speaker 1: so much trying to make a ton of money. 203 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 3: Well, but you just to follow up though, you brought 204 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 3: up a good point about Mahomes and Andy Reid. Now 205 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 3: that just might be an Andy Reid thing where Patrick 206 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 3: Mahomes and we found out in that quarterback documentary on 207 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 3: Netflix that that dude wants to play in any any 208 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 3: shape or form, whether it's a preseason game, a walkthrough, 209 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 3: whatever it. Maybe he wants to be out there. We 210 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 3: didn't see as many key weapon guys like Adams last year. 211 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 3: Tyreek kill was the example you made, They're not there. 212 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 3: Aren't as many of those this year now. There have 213 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,080 Speaker 3: been some quarterback changes, of course, like Rogers is a 214 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 3: big name, a head coaching change in Denver with Sean 215 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 3: Payton now coaching Russell Wilson. That was a train wreck 216 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 3: last year. But on the subject of past catchers like okay, 217 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 3: I give you another one, Bryce Young all new with Sanders 218 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 3: and feeling they move on from DJ Moore, Are those 219 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 3: spots that you're circling as far as like okay, I 220 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 3: might see in a new coach, especially where they might 221 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 3: want to get see a little bit more from the 222 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 3: first unit. 223 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I would definitely say this is we're this is 224 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,319 Speaker 1: the time of year. I'm obsessed with a second, first, second, 225 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 1: third year quarterbacks. Like I will read all I can 226 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 1: about Justin Fields, I will read all I can about 227 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:47,319 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence Anthony. We're interested in this triokie quarterback and 228 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,559 Speaker 1: the Colts. Every day I'm going over the notes from 229 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: their practices. Listen to be writers because it is a 230 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,079 Speaker 1: big deal, right, You're trying to form an opinion on 231 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 1: these guys, and I again high on in interesting. If 232 00:10:58,480 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 1: I think he wants to be If I think he's 233 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: gonna be Look of the Year, that's someone I'm gonna 234 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:04,079 Speaker 1: follow closely to make sure this guy is actually legit. 235 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 2: I'm willing to put money on him. 236 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 1: Where Bryce Young already know what he is, right, but 237 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 1: anytime I see a Bryce Young article that he looked 238 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: really well in practice, it's expected. Right, he's the number 239 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 1: one pick, cause same field and I had with Joe 240 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. You just want to check it 241 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 1: in this progress so I feel like you nail it 242 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 1: there where it's like, Okay, I gotta really be on 243 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: top of these guys and figuring out who's legit who's not. 244 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 2: Just because it's a. 245 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: Big deal preseason, people might be like, oh, it's. 246 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:28,199 Speaker 2: Not that serious. It is. 247 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 1: Guys are playing for their jobs. Old veterans are trying 248 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 1: to keep their jobs over young guys. Like people might 249 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 1: take relaxed positions, right like Trevor Travis Kelce, he's probably 250 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: not going that hard in preseason. He's a unicorn, right, 251 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 1: he knows he's good. Almost every other guy in that 252 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 1: roster is trying to make a spot or get a 253 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:48,079 Speaker 1: position up. So to me, it is important to watch preseason. 254 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 1: I know it sounds boring to people, but man, you 255 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 1: really got to stay these quarterbacks because it really shows 256 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:55,199 Speaker 1: showcases their talent, especially in preseason. 257 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 3: Karnad one of the first things you said was coach 258 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 3: speak and the dress rehearsal tagline you might use on 259 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,439 Speaker 3: a specific game. And I guess the good teams fall 260 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:09,199 Speaker 3: under that category right where you know what you have. 261 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 3: Simon just kind of hit on that. But with the 262 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 3: teams that are a little murky, where you know you 263 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 3: know who the guy's going to be, you think, but 264 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 3: you want to see a little bit more. You want 265 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 3: to see reps. Another example I think is Atlanta when 266 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 3: they bring in give Desmond rhetor a real chance with 267 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 3: Bjeon Robinson in the backfield, and what they've done to 268 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,679 Speaker 3: make changes Houston with c J. Stroud, they changed their 269 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 3: whole receiving core, they added Dalton Schultz from Dallas. Just 270 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 3: the coach speak I can understand would be, you know, 271 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 3: you kind of know it's bull crap and what necessarily isn't, 272 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 3: But is there some value to what coaches say leading 273 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 3: into a game, Oh. 274 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 4: And you know every team is going to be a 275 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 4: case by case basis. I don't like to make you 276 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 4: know wide assumptions about people, but one thing I do 277 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 4: know is you know Simon to it like Sean McVay 278 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 4: doesn't play starters at all. If you're gonna be a 279 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 4: week one starter, he's not gonna play you. So the 280 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 4: Rams are always playing scrubs and more teams are kind 281 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 4: of going that direction. We don't really see any true 282 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 4: dress rehearsal games anymore. Like that used to be Week 283 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:18,719 Speaker 4: three when there's four weeks of preseason. Week three was 284 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 4: the popular week where you could see a stud quarterback 285 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 4: play the entire game. You just don't see that anymore. 286 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 4: If you do, it's usually week two of the new 287 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 4: format with three weeks, so that that's one of those 288 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:33,199 Speaker 4: things where we typically know going into the game a 289 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 4: pretty good idea of who's gonna play win. The key 290 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 4: is to react to that news as soon as you 291 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:41,200 Speaker 4: get it, because the market does move pretty fast. So 292 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 4: if they were to announce, you know, Patrick Mahomes going 293 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 4: to play the entire first half, you can usually get 294 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:49,079 Speaker 4: the number you'd probably have, like seconds before they move it, 295 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 4: but you could usually get the number and then they 296 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:55,960 Speaker 4: adjust accordingly, but reacting quickly to that like more official 297 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 4: news where you know, if any Reid does say he's 298 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 4: gonna play about the half, you could typically believe him. 299 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 4: But it's again it's a case by case basis. 300 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 3: Simon, what about you? As far as incurrent laid it 301 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:09,560 Speaker 3: out very nicely, we don't really have that four week 302 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 3: formula anymore. It's now three weeks, so you don't really 303 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 3: have that game to circle where we'll see mostly first 304 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:16,439 Speaker 3: unit guys. 305 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 1: I go about preseason pretty weird. I usually bet really 306 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 1: small the first week, and then once I have more 307 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 1: data on these backups and the offense, these teams are running, 308 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: and what coaches are doing, then I'll go a little 309 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 1: more heavy on second week. Third week, I'll probably go 310 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 1: small again. So it really is only that second week 311 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: I really take advanta bunch. If you're just a boring 312 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: better right, you just want to really play it really simple. 313 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: Everyone knows about the Ravens. The Ravens haven't lost a 314 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 1: preseason game, and I think it's what three years, sean 315 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 1: four years are we going on. I'll make a lot 316 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 1: of bets and I'll just throw the Ravens in on 317 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 1: a t a parlay or a teaser, whatever you want 318 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 1: to do. I really can't fault you for that. I 319 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 1: have a lot of people ask about the Ravens thing. 320 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 1: I don't know. There is no model that I can 321 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: explain what happens here with Harball and that team. But 322 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 1: they play really hard in the preseason, and even when 323 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 1: they're in games they're losing, far Ball goes all out 324 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter and they usually come back and 325 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: win those games. So I don't know what to tell 326 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 1: people about the Ravens. They I got a lot of 327 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 1: questions about it. We've never seen anything like it. You 328 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 1: can go through all the history. The bookmakers too. They 329 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: tried to juice it up last year. They went two 330 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 1: and one ats last year, so the books can't catch 331 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: up to him. 332 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 2: Pros like me. I bet on them, but I'm scared. 333 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: It's not like I'm betting big money on it, because 334 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 1: I'm like it's eventually going to go the other way. 335 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 1: It's only I keep going this way for so long. 336 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 1: But that's I always try to tell people this. If 337 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 1: you're going to bet anything of preseason, please for the 338 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 1: love of God, bet the Ravens money line. If it 339 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: ain't broke, don't fix it. It is a lazy man's bet, 340 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: But I just I keep betting the Ravens money line 341 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: and it's been nothing but good to me. 342 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 3: It's kind of fascinating because they opened August twelfth against 343 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 3: Philadelphia at home. So is Mark Marcus Mariota going to 344 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 3: be the solution to knocking the Baltimore Ravens off. 345 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 2: I don't think so. 346 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 3: Well, But of any guy that's a reputable guy, I 347 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 3: would imagine of him many bimes. 348 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 2: No, that's true. 349 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 1: I think he went like, oh for ten passing today though, 350 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: So he's already. 351 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 3: Again without giving too much away, so we got our 352 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 3: dress rehearsal spiel out. It's not quite the same, folks, 353 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 3: He's still as these guys have highlighted, you got to 354 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 3: really pay attention and stay locked in as the week 355 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 3: progresses training camp and into the preseason schedule. Favorite sources 356 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 3: for Intel and I realized that could be sort of 357 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 3: a mysterious pool of information that cannot be fully disclosed. 358 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 3: But Sean, do you go, do you go somewhere for 359 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 3: Twitter to beat reporters that kind of thing? 360 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Twitter X whatever we're calling it today 361 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 4: is probably my favorite. 362 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 2: So I have I have. 363 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 4: Lists, try to keep it up to date with Beat reporters. 364 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 4: That's really crucial, especially like leading up to the game 365 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 4: getting information. Sometimes you get some wacky stuff in preseason 366 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 4: that's not even player related. One of my favorite bets 367 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 4: and wins in preseason or just of all time was 368 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 4: I think twenty nineteen. 369 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 3: It was Packers Raiders. 370 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 4: I think the game was in like Canada or something, 371 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,919 Speaker 4: and there's some big pothole in the end zone and like, 372 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 4: we can't play on this shit. So they were considering 373 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 4: like shortening the field, so I just instant bet the over, 374 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:16,879 Speaker 4: like just sign me up, like we might get like 375 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 4: an eighty yard field. It was like thirty seven a half. 376 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:22,160 Speaker 4: That's what happened. They brought the cones out, they made 377 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 4: the field twenty yard shorter, they removed kickoffs. I think 378 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,639 Speaker 4: the line closed like forty one and a half or 379 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 4: something like that, and they ended up like being like 380 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:30,360 Speaker 4: forty three points. 381 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 2: So you get. 382 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 4: Weird things like that, or like if they only have 383 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 4: one punter, one kicker, he gets hurt in the pregame 384 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 4: they have no kicker there's other things that you can do. 385 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 2: So preseason you. 386 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 4: Get some wacky stuff and they just play through it 387 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 4: because again, these games don't matter, but you get some 388 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 4: pretty big edges just by scouring Twitter and just being 389 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:49,920 Speaker 4: one of the first people to react to the news. 390 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 4: So that's why I think Twitter is still the way 391 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 4: to go. 392 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 3: Or you have construction companies on standby. 393 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 2: Telling yeah too, yes, yes. 394 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,679 Speaker 3: Grounds crew is curters go to that they made the 395 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 3: list simon the same question for you any what sort, 396 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 3: So not the information itself, but where the information is 397 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 3: coming from? Where are you looking? 398 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 1: And it's just funny how far football has come because 399 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: if you'll remember, if they're on remember the first Hard Knocks, 400 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 1: the Ravens came up to field out he played the 401 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 1: Vet and they refuse to play in the field. That's 402 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: how shitty the field was at the old Vet, the 403 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 1: old Eagle Stadium. So that would not happen anymore, that 404 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:29,679 Speaker 1: they'd make them play that game. Yeah, So you can 405 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: do what me and Sean do, which is I have 406 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 1: a ton of beat writers. 407 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:34,880 Speaker 2: Some people I really value. 408 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:37,719 Speaker 1: If you're trying to do the lazy way, there's like 409 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 1: they're not even gonna call them ets, but that's what 410 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: they literally are. It's just all of the beat writers 411 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 1: on one feed kind of and it's just different Twitter 412 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: accounts that do that. I know Sean follows this guy. 413 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:54,200 Speaker 1: It's at thirty two Beat Writers, so he's basically kind 414 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:56,879 Speaker 1: of like a bot that just say someone's sweet. Spryce 415 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 1: Young completed a pass. The student will retweet it like 416 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 1: it's literally a ton of BS information, but there's a 417 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:04,639 Speaker 1: lot of good nuggets in there and you can just 418 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 1: all get it off from this one Twitter source. So 419 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 1: at thirty two BT Writers, I think he's pretty good. 420 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 1: Like he posts a lot of the stuff in preseason 421 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 1: here that I really find value in. So to me, 422 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 1: there's just one hand all give out. I'd say follow 423 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 1: him for this preseason because any little thing, like literally 424 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: a guy breathes and it's impressive, he will tweet out 425 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 1: this this guy breathed there today and it was pretty incredible. 426 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 1: Like b John Robinson ran the ball really fascinated. People 427 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: are shocked that this guy can run the ball. He's 428 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: running back for the Atlanta Falcons. So it is one 429 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,119 Speaker 1: of those it's gonna be a lot of information, a 430 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 1: lot of useless information. There are some really good gems 431 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 1: in there. So to me, that's one of those where 432 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,160 Speaker 1: I know people hate on Twitter, they hate on social media, 433 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 1: these are really really great tools to use, Like you 434 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 1: don't have to go in there and give your opinion, 435 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 1: right if people annoy you, you can literally just make 436 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,639 Speaker 1: a burner account where you're just following football beat writers, 437 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 1: Like I have an account like that where I'm just 438 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 1: strictly using it for information. So to me, it's a tool. 439 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 1: And you you're Joe Public, like you're getting inside information 440 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,159 Speaker 1: and you're the public. You can't beat it really, so 441 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,640 Speaker 1: definitely definitely listen to beat writers on Twitter. They they 442 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:12,359 Speaker 1: might be blown a lot of smoke up your butt, 443 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 1: right because they're working for the team, but overall the 444 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 1: information is very very very well done. 445 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 3: It's not like the old days though our beat writers 446 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 3: would get on the bus and get on the plane 447 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:22,880 Speaker 3: and a lot of cases they're just doing their own thing. 448 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:25,680 Speaker 3: A lot of times too, they're going to practices in 449 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 3: training camp and whatnot. But they're not I could be 450 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 3: wrong that they they're dialed in, don't get me wrong, 451 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,399 Speaker 3: but it's not as close as it used to be 452 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,360 Speaker 3: back in the back in the day where like they 453 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:39,680 Speaker 3: were around the team all the time, all sports. I'm 454 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 3: glad you brought up hard knocks because looking at just 455 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 3: the preseason as a whole, and I mean more so 456 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 3: nitpicking all thirty two teams. So the Jets are going 457 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 3: to be on hard knocks. And there was the report 458 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 3: that came out from Adam Schefter, and I know Aaron 459 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 3: Rodgers has been outspoken. It's not going to be as 460 00:20:56,359 --> 00:21:00,080 Speaker 3: dialed in as previous years because the Jets find it 461 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,879 Speaker 3: unethical to show guys getting cut, which in a way, 462 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 3: you're gonna just find out if the guy got cut 463 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,360 Speaker 3: or not. It's more so just how the story unfolded 464 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 3: and how we sab and we're sad and hopefully he 465 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 3: gets another opportunity. But you're going to get some intel 466 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 3: on what the environment's like. You know we've had We 467 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:19,399 Speaker 3: can go down the list of all the teams that 468 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,919 Speaker 3: have been on there but suspended players we know about that. 469 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,640 Speaker 3: Some guys from the Lions. Lions really stole the headlines 470 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 3: in the offseason. Some other guys from other teams have 471 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 3: also been in that gambling mix. Not as many suspensions 472 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,879 Speaker 3: for like domestic violence or just talking this year that 473 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:41,439 Speaker 3: is or steroid use, whatever it may be. But when 474 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 3: we look at like the bigger picture, those types of 475 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 3: public consumption, things like a Hard Knocks, what are we 476 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 3: looking at their kerner potentially from any can you glean 477 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 3: from that? 478 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, Like I'm not a big you know, beat on 479 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 4: narratives and things like that, but certainly when it comes 480 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 4: to Hard Knocks, I think they will get more public money. 481 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 4: You know, people will be interested in them and bet 482 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,400 Speaker 4: on them, so that might inflate the number and give 483 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 4: us some value. But for me to like actually fade 484 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,199 Speaker 4: the jets, it would have to be more practical, Like 485 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:14,920 Speaker 4: we'd have to get where ten Boyle is going to 486 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,680 Speaker 4: play for three quarters. That's usually what triggers a bet 487 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:22,240 Speaker 4: for me, as opposed to just blindly fading the team 488 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 4: that's a Hard Knocks. But it has shown, like I 489 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 4: think it was Matthew Friedman put together last year, like 490 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 4: if you were to fade all the Hard Knocked teams, 491 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,119 Speaker 4: you would have won like something over sixty percent. So 492 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:36,159 Speaker 4: there could be something there, just because it probably is 493 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 4: inflating the lines a bit and you're probably getting some 494 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 4: value that way. So yeah, that is one thing that 495 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 4: I've been paying attention to as well. 496 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 3: Right, how about you, Simon. 497 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, when it comes to Hard Knocks, I'm with Sean. 498 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 1: It's his public perception, right, The public's going to bet 499 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 1: heavier on a team because now they know them better. 500 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 1: But I'm not too worried about the less access. I mean, 501 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 1: last year the lines had it. Did you see Jared 502 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 1: Goff talk more than three times? No, because he tried 503 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 1: to hide go And yeah, because he did the Rams 504 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:04,720 Speaker 1: Hard Knocks and he looked like an idiot. You know, 505 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: you didn't know the sun rise in the east set 506 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 1: in the west. It's like, I get it. I get 507 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: there's some personality I want to stay away from it. 508 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is an ego maniac. This guy is going 509 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 1: to love the cameras. He's one of this movies like 510 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: I don't love the cameras. We all know Aaron Rodgers 511 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 1: loves cameras. 512 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 2: Right. 513 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 1: He would literally go on Pat mcav show every week 514 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,360 Speaker 1: to break his own news. So that's one of those 515 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 1: where it's just like he's that guy that's at the bar. 516 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 1: He's like, yeah, I'm not gonna drink to our tonight, 517 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,439 Speaker 1: and then every night he's blacked out drunk. It's like 518 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:34,880 Speaker 1: that's Aaron Rodgers when it comes to being on camera 519 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,919 Speaker 1: and being in media. So yeah, Aaron, we get it. 520 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: You want in privacy and you just want to be 521 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 1: focused on the Jets. That's not really how it works 522 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,719 Speaker 1: in New York. So I think it's perfect where this 523 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 1: is a team that arguably one of the most talented 524 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,399 Speaker 1: teams in the a FC. Now they have Rogers, the 525 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 1: old veteran. I really do think it's gonna be a 526 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: good hard knocks for last year. You know, Dan Cambell, 527 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: the boys were fun, but they just weren't that that 528 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,239 Speaker 1: much drama that exciting, right, So I do you think 529 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 1: this year is be pretty go this Jets team. There's 530 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 1: no value there. So I'm hoping anyone listen to this 531 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:06,880 Speaker 1: just that will not touch this Jets team. Maybe if 532 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: they start one to three, right, that's when you come 533 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: back in another side, because they have a b real 534 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 1: start to their season. So that's definitely my view on 535 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 1: this Jets team is just wait, you're gonna get better 536 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:16,680 Speaker 1: value to come October on this team. 537 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 2: You are again in August. 538 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 3: Outside of the narrative driven content, you guys kind of 539 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 3: weave this in too off the top. The quarterback information 540 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 3: matters quite a bit, and that's more so just team 541 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 3: specific information that you're looking at, so that info is 542 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,679 Speaker 3: applicable for this as well. Okay, before we go, we 543 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 3: did mention we would touch on the Hall of Fame 544 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 3: game August third and Canton. The Jets will be in action. 545 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 3: Speaking of the Jets, they're playing the Cleveland Browns. And 546 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,640 Speaker 3: this one's underway on Saturday or no part of me. Thursday, 547 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 3: August third, National TV, NBC eight o'clock. Start lines are 548 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 3: up at fandle Cleveland one and a half point favorite, 549 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 3: minus one twenty five on the money line total. And 550 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,199 Speaker 3: we didn't dive into a lot of totals, and but 551 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 3: Kerner did bring up the total example that he mentioned 552 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 3: back in twenty nineteen. These totals are really low in 553 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 3: these games because we're not getting starters. We're getting really 554 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:11,120 Speaker 3: schmucks and guys selling, you know, waving creators at Walmart 555 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 3: down the road. Here total said at thirty three and 556 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 3: a half points. And outlook for this game, curter, it is, 557 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:18,360 Speaker 3: it is coming up. It's very soon. 558 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's too soon to really have a heart take. 559 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 4: I haven't placed any bets or anything, but the one 560 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,920 Speaker 4: thing that I do. Let so let me just backtrack. 561 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 4: When it comes to this game, We're not going to 562 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,680 Speaker 4: see Aaron Rodgers play. We're not going to see Deshaun 563 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 4: Watson play. It's going to be all scrubs. And on 564 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 4: the brown side, all three quarterbacks Josh Doobbs, Dorian Thompson, 565 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:43,440 Speaker 4: Robinson and Kellamond have rushing ability. And when it comes 566 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,440 Speaker 4: to these games, especially an ugly Hall of Fame game, 567 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 4: that's huge because these defenses, you know, they lay back, 568 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,360 Speaker 4: they play a very soft, vanilla based defense. 569 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:52,640 Speaker 2: So if these. 570 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,879 Speaker 4: Guys have rushing upside, they could pick up chunk gains 571 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 4: with their legs and kind of overcome the inefficient passing 572 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 4: game that we'll see. So I think that's kind of 573 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,119 Speaker 4: sneaky on the brown side and for the over. And 574 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,120 Speaker 4: on the Jet side, you know you have Zach Wilson, 575 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,159 Speaker 4: who knows how much he's gonna play, but you know 576 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,120 Speaker 4: he has upside, so he's good for the over. Tim 577 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 4: Boyle sucks, so when he's on the field, that's gonna 578 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,959 Speaker 4: be bad. But Chris Streveler same thing. He has rushing upside. 579 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 4: So when it comes to preseason these ugly games, guys 580 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 4: that have rushing upside. I think the environment's a little 581 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,199 Speaker 4: bit higher scoring than people think. So this is a 582 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 4: game usually it's very low scoring, but I could see 583 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 4: how this goes over, you know, thirty three and a half. 584 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:34,399 Speaker 4: But again, need more information on this game, but it's 585 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 4: going to be ugly for sure. 586 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 3: Remember way back when Cleveland had a Thursday night game 587 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,320 Speaker 3: and they were really digging deep into that running back 588 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,119 Speaker 3: depth chart. I think Demetric Felton is still in their 589 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 3: depth chart. He was like a savior for some folks. 590 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 3: I remember in a Thursday night game him and somebody 591 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 3: else I can't remember, but that he's a back for 592 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 3: Cleveland that could see time. So Simon, after all everything 593 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 3: we just talked about, how would you just using Jets 594 00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,440 Speaker 3: Browns as an example is not the best one because 595 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,359 Speaker 3: we know we're not going to get many reps or 596 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 3: series from starters. How would you sink your teeth into 597 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:07,880 Speaker 3: potentially betting this game? 598 00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 2: What a gift? 599 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: One more time we get to fade Zach Wilson, so 600 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 1: definitely gonna be on the Browns. Talk to a good 601 00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 1: friend of mine who's a bookmaker in Vegas. He says, 602 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 1: right now, it's all Jets money. So it's nice to 603 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 1: I'm fading the public by taking the Browns, and I'm 604 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 1: also fading Zach Wilson in a sense of think Sean Nilde. 605 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:25,959 Speaker 1: I have a bunch of running quarterbacks on this on 606 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: this Browns team, and that's kind of like that's something 607 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:30,160 Speaker 1: I look for, but it's something I do like where 608 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:31,479 Speaker 1: it's like, okay, now, if to worry about this guy 609 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,640 Speaker 1: throwing stupid passes, like it's either first red or they're 610 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,280 Speaker 1: gonna pull down and run the ball. Zach Wilson, he's 611 00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:39,200 Speaker 1: gonna try to force things in there, right. He's kind 612 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 1: of like one of those guys where I think he 613 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:43,359 Speaker 1: sees right on the wall. He needs to just kind 614 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 1: of show up these next preseason games, keep a roster 615 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 1: spot these upcoming two seasons. So to me, that's the 616 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 1: guy that's gonna be filling the pressure where the Browns 617 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be playing loose. It's an interesting 618 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 1: number if you look at the summer, it's kind of 619 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:56,560 Speaker 1: look at a pick. It's like some books have a 620 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 1: minus more and a half for the Jets. It's a 621 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 1: weird number where all the money's been coming on the 622 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,359 Speaker 1: Jets it really hasn't moved that much. So to me, 623 00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,200 Speaker 1: the book makers know the public like the Jets, they're 624 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 1: gonna be the hard knocked team. So I'm gonna take 625 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,520 Speaker 1: the value on this Browns team and just hope these 626 00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:11,280 Speaker 1: guys will turn. 627 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 2: The ball over. 628 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:14,680 Speaker 1: That's the biggest way with these quarterbacks as turnovers because 629 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,160 Speaker 1: their killers in preseasons. Just in such a low scoring 630 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 1: mat which is a turnover is such a killer. So 631 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 1: I'll definitely on the Browns in this Hall of Fame game. 632 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 3: Big totals have hit at a rate of fifty five 633 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,479 Speaker 3: percent or better when it comes to the over on 634 00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 3: a total. Do you guys have anything to add on 635 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 3: just totals and how to caution a new better or 636 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,120 Speaker 3: someone you know? Simon mapped it out nicely. If you're 637 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 3: throwing a casual five bucks or you're really not paying attention, 638 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 3: but you're trying to pay more attention and you see 639 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 3: a glaring low total, like Simon, last year, there was 640 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,719 Speaker 3: a week in the NFL December it's the Arctic blast 641 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 3: week where the totals are super low. Well, folks, keep 642 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 3: in mind we're in the month of August. It's it's 643 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:56,280 Speaker 3: warm pretty much everywhere. Would you caution folks on totals 644 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 3: just to take on totals for preseason? 645 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 4: Again, it depends on which quarterback, which unit's going to 646 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 4: be on the field at a given time. So when 647 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,880 Speaker 4: it comes to totals, I rarely just bet the whole game. 648 00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,880 Speaker 4: I'm usually taking you know, the first quarter or the 649 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 4: first half, or again waiting until the second half because 650 00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 4: I like the matchups on that back end, So I 651 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 4: don't think of the total as a whole. I think 652 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 4: of each quarter basically, So I think that's the best 653 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 4: way to attack when you have good information, is betting 654 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 4: on like individual quarters or halves as opposed to the 655 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 4: whole game. So that's usually how I attack it. 656 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,920 Speaker 3: Okay, good stuff from Sean Kerner and Simon Hunter. You 657 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 3: can find both of them in the Action Network app. 658 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:38,479 Speaker 3: As the month of August gets underway, they will have 659 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 3: plenty of plays for NFL preseason. Find them in the app. 660 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 3: Find them also in actionnetwork dot com. Simon Hunter co 661 00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,880 Speaker 3: host the Favorites Pod. Shawn Kerner, director of predictive Analytics 662 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 3: over an Action Network. I'm Brendan glass Sheen. Thanks for 663 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,720 Speaker 3: tuning into the Action Network podcast. Hope this was useful. 664 00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,680 Speaker 3: Enjoy and be responsible betting the NFL preseason. We are 665 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 3: presented by FanDuel. You'll a great rest of your day 666 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 3: and we'll talk to you and real soon on the 667 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:13,480 Speaker 3: Action Network podcast. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 668 00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,400 Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 669 00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,000 Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 670 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:19,840 Speaker 3: hundred Gambler