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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: daybaq At podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 1: wherever you listen. It's Tuesday, the thirteenth of February, and

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepki.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Joe Biden says

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Speaker 2: he's pushing for a six week pause in fighting between

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Speaker 2: Israel and Hamas.

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Speaker 1: Chip designer armstock rises by twenty nine percent in a

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Speaker 1: single day and nearly doubles in less than a week plus.

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Speaker 2: Lacking a plan, we look at why Britain's chronic housing

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Speaker 2: shortage is about to get even worse.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: Negotiators from Israel, the United States, Egypt, and Katar are

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Speaker 2: expected to resume talks in Cairo later to discuss a

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Speaker 2: pause in fighting and the release of hostages being held

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Speaker 2: by Ingaza by Hamas. The discussions come as President Biden

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Speaker 2: says he's pushing for a six week pause in the conflict.

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Speaker 3: The United States are working on a hostage deal between

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Speaker 3: Israel and Hamas which would bring a median and sustained

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Speaker 3: period of common to Gaza for at least six weeks,

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Speaker 3: which we could then take the time to build something

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Speaker 3: more endurance.

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Speaker 2: Biden's comments were his most detailed yet about the ongoing

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Speaker 2: negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which the US is helping

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Speaker 2: to facilitate. On Monday, Israeli forces launched strikes on the

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Speaker 2: city of Rafa in the southern Gaza Strip, where more

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Speaker 2: than a million people have sought shelter from the fighting.

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Speaker 2: Many refugees fled the north of the territory after Israel

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Speaker 2: launched its retaliatory campaign against Hamas for the group's October

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Speaker 2: seventh attack.

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Speaker 1: In the UK, the Labor Party has withdrawn support for

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Speaker 1: its candidate in the upcoming Rochdale by election because of

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Speaker 1: anti Semitic remarks. The Mail on Sunday newspaper reported that

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Speaker 1: Azar Ali repeated a conspiracy theory about Israel and the

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Speaker 1: October seventh attack. Ali had Ali for what he'd said,

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Speaker 1: calling it deeply offensive, ignorant and false, but Labour's Pat

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Speaker 1: McFadden says that fresh information about other comments he made

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Speaker 1: has now come out and.

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Speaker 4: Since we've learned about those, Kyo Starmer has considered the

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Speaker 4: position and taken the tough but necessary decision to withdraw

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Speaker 4: support from mister Ali's candidacy.

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Speaker 1: Pat McFadden. There the deadline to replace as Our Ali

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Speaker 1: has passed, with the vote due on the twenty ninth

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Speaker 1: of this month. A full list of the eleven candidates

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Speaker 1: is on the Rochdale Borough Council website.

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Speaker 2: Citygroup is warning that the market needs to price in

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Speaker 2: the risk of future federal reserve hikes. Strategers at the

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Speaker 2: bank say traders should now be hedging the risk of

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Speaker 2: a very brief easing cycle followed by rate increases. The

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Speaker 2: analysis from the Landers economists come as FED Governor Michelle

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Speaker 2: Bowman says she doesn't see a need to cut at

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Speaker 2: the moment.

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Speaker 5: I think it's too soon to have an expectation that

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Speaker 5: to measure or project when and how much I think

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Speaker 5: we might be lowering the policy rate. I think the

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Speaker 5: progress that we're making on inflation is very positive.

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Speaker 2: Michelle Bowman's comments come ahead of today's US inflation print

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Speaker 2: out at one thirty pm London time. The data is

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Speaker 2: expected to show that price rises slowed to two point

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Speaker 2: nine percent year on year in January. That will be

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Speaker 2: the first reading below three percent since March twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 1: Stock in arm has risen again, extending a three day rally.

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Speaker 1: Shares swored by twenty nine percent, closing in a record

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Speaker 1: with the chip designer almost doubling in value thanks to

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Speaker 1: the artificial intelligence boom. Bloomberg's Carol Massa says that the

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Speaker 1: gains are being fueled by the firm's projections.

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Speaker 6: That was fueled by that revenue forecast that the company

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Speaker 6: put out specifically that far far exceeded the average of

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Speaker 6: analyst estimate. So it's interesting there was anything specif vic today,

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Speaker 6: but investors continuing their three day jump to more than

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Speaker 6: ninety three percent in ARMS, So pretty remarkable.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's chief national correspondent Carol Massa there will. The jump

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Speaker 1: comes after a blockbuster earnings report which showed that AI

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Speaker 1: spending is boosting sales for ARM and other Big beneficiaries

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Speaker 1: in the sector include Nvidia, whose sales tripled thanks to

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Speaker 1: its AI accelerated chips.

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Speaker 2: It's been just over four years since the UK officially

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Speaker 2: left the European Union. Some economists say the country, you're

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Speaker 2: still suffering the consequences. Bloomberg's twa at a Bio has

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Speaker 2: the details.

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Speaker 7: Brexit shrank the British economy that's according to economists at

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Speaker 7: Goldman Sachs, who say the UK has fallen significantly behind

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Speaker 7: similar nations thanks to the decision. Their research found the

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Speaker 7: country's real GDP has underperformed by about five percent. Reduced

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Speaker 7: international trade and fewer migrants are included on a list

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Speaker 7: of side effects that have contributed to the long term

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Speaker 7: cost of the move. According to the Bank, Goldman's conclusion

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Speaker 7: is broadly in line with other estimates about the drawbacks

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Speaker 7: of Brexit in London to You, added Bayo Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Andrew Bailey says that capital rules are not responsible though

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Speaker 1: for the low UK bank valuations, but he remains puzzled

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Speaker 1: as British lenders trade below their book values. The Bank

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Speaker 1: of England governor was giving a speech in the East Midlands,

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Speaker 1: saying that he believes more reforms are needed to protect

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Speaker 1: banks from runs like the one that broke Silicon Valley

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Speaker 1: Bank UK last year. Bailey also dismissed UK recession concerns,

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Speaker 1: saying that any slow down will beat shallow.

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Speaker 2: And finally clear skies here in London, but in New York,

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Speaker 2: a snowstorm is expected to dump up to twenty centimeters

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Speaker 2: of snow on the city on Tuesday. New York City

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Speaker 2: Mayor Eric Adams has urged residents to stay home and

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Speaker 2: as closing schools for home learning instead.

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Speaker 8: Which Rallie encouraging New York is if you don't have

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Speaker 8: to go out, stay on and please use public transportation.

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Speaker 8: We want to minimize a number of vehicles on a

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Speaker 8: row so that our apparatus and vehicles can actually deal

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Speaker 8: with the removal of snow and make our movement in

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Speaker 8: the city more feasible.

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Speaker 2: Mayor of New York, Eric Adams, there are warning New

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Speaker 2: Yorker is not to go out today unless necessary. The

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Speaker 2: storm is likely to disrupt traffic and trains, with flight

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Speaker 2: cancelations and delays also expected. Now in a moment, we'll

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Speaker 2: bring you more on the ceasfire talks in the Middle East,

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Speaker 2: plus some exclusive Bloomberg analysis of the UK's home building

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Speaker 2: needs as well. But firstno, the story that caught aur

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Speaker 2: eye this morning about a case of a super yacht

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Speaker 2: under sanctions and the United States is asking for permission

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Speaker 2: to sell it.

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Speaker 1: Who knew that it would be so expensive to upkeep

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Speaker 1: one of these enormous vessels, But it is proving so

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Speaker 1: costly that the US government wants to get it off

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Speaker 1: its hands even before the court case is over.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Ammiday has been one pounded in Fiji since

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Speaker 2: April of twenty twenty two. It's paying six hundred thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars the US government for the upkeep of the boat.

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Speaker 2: They're saying the cost a month are far from madas

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Speaker 2: far a month, Yeah, and the public shouldn't have to

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Speaker 2: pay them while the court considers whether to order forfeiture

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Speaker 2: of the vessel. The dispute is over the ownership of

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Speaker 2: what the US government says that it is a Russian

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Speaker 2: billionaire who was under sanctions. That's been disputed in court

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Speaker 2: at the moment. So it's a question of whether or

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Speaker 2: not the vessel, I suppose can be sold under those

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Speaker 2: rules that were applied to Russian figures after the Russian

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Speaker 2: invasion of Ukraine as well. It's a pretty impressive boat

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Speaker 2: we're talking about though, worth some three hundred million dollars.

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Speaker 2: It has a helipad and six x.

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Speaker 1: But I'm just wondering, who's I suppose who's going to

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Speaker 1: come along and snap up a bargain basement, supiot, I

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Speaker 1: don't know there we are. Yeah, look, a very interesting

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Speaker 1: story around sanctions and the consequences of course, of what

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Speaker 1: happens after those Russian sanctions.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's get more details on our top story now

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Speaker 2: and this pushed by the United States for a prolonged

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Speaker 2: pause in fighting in Gaza of at least six weeks

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Speaker 2: to allow for the release of more hostages. Our EMA

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Speaker 2: news director Rosalind Mathison joins us now for more Morning

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Speaker 2: to you, Ras, What more can you tell us? First

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Speaker 2: of all about this plan that we've heard about from

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Speaker 2: the US President.

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Speaker 9: Well, he didn't give a lot of detail. He just

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Speaker 9: said that he's pushing for this six week pause and

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Speaker 9: again he's been using the word pause versus ce spy

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Speaker 9: in the fight between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and

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Speaker 9: that's to facilitate the release of the remaining Israeli hostages.

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Speaker 9: And that's sort of in line with what we've been

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Speaker 9: hearing from elsewhere. There's been differing proposals for an amount

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Speaker 9: of time six weeks to a couple of months, even

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Speaker 9: out to four months for a cease fire, but that's

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Speaker 9: not really the sticking point. The sticking point of some

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Speaker 9: of the conditions that would be included in that deal,

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Speaker 9: and the two primary ones that they seem to be

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Speaker 9: unable to agree on what would happen to the Israeli

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Speaker 9: troops in that scenario. Do they pull entirely out of

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Speaker 9: the Gaza Strip or to certain areas of the Gaza Strip?

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Speaker 9: And is the ceasfire paving the way for a permanent

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Speaker 9: ceaespire And is that the goal of any kind of

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Speaker 9: short term pause in the fighting. And so what we're

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Speaker 9: seeing is perhaps the US is trying to coax both

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Speaker 9: Hamas and Israel if they can't agree on something like

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Speaker 9: a four month or three or four months ceaspy, at

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Speaker 9: least to allow for something of a shorter duration, particularly

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Speaker 9: again to facilitate the release of those hostages.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I just remember about one hundred hostages were released

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Speaker 1: in a week long truce that ended on the first

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Speaker 1: of December. So that's how long ago that sort of

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Speaker 1: pause in fighting took place. There are reports of a

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Speaker 1: meeting between the CIA, Mossad, Egyptian and Katari officials today.

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Speaker 1: Is that a sign that the talks are serious? Why

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Speaker 1: is that important? Does it yield results?

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Speaker 9: Well, it's interesting to see that there's another meeting. We

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Speaker 9: know that that's happened several times. We know the Cia

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Speaker 9: and Mossad have been talking regularly throughout and it's to

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Speaker 9: see again the role of the Egyptians and the Kataris

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Speaker 9: in all of this, because they're seen potentially by both

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Speaker 9: sides as good faith actors in all of it. This

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Speaker 9: is probably more to share to share intelligence at the moment,

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Speaker 9: particularly around the location of the remaining hostages. We know

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Speaker 9: that Israel says that they managed to get two more

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Speaker 9: of them out yesterday while they were conducting those strikes

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Speaker 9: on Rougher near the Egyptian border, but we don't know

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Speaker 9: a lot about the rest of them, including their location.

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Speaker 9: You know, their status, how healthy they are, and so on.

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Speaker 9: You can imagine that this is about sharing that information

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Speaker 9: about their location in readiness for a potential ceasefire deal

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Speaker 9: which would allow them to kind of get a hold

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Speaker 9: of these of these hostages very quickly. So it suggests

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Speaker 9: at least again these efforts to keep the lines of

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Speaker 9: communication open to be able to pass messages between Hamas

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Speaker 9: and Israel. But there are those further sticking points more

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Speaker 9: broadly for a deal.

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Speaker 2: Ross Joe Biden also had a strong warning for Israel

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Speaker 2: and its offensive on southern Gaza, which is a place

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Speaker 2: where many people were forced to move because of fighting

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Speaker 2: elsewhere in the territory as well. How does that play

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Speaker 2: into these bigger discussions around a ceasefire.

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Speaker 9: Well, that really is the question. This is efforts to

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Speaker 9: make to try and get a deal done on a

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Speaker 9: cease fire before Israel decides to proceed with the ground

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Speaker 9: offensive into Rougher. Again, that's that very sort of bunched

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Speaker 9: up border area with Egypt, and there are estimates of

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Speaker 9: more than a million people in that era at the moment,

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Speaker 9: a bunch of refugee camps and so on. Israel says

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Speaker 9: that that's also an enclave obviously for Hamas, and so

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Speaker 9: the impetus is the race to try and get an

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Speaker 9: agreement on a pause in the fighting before the Israeli

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Speaker 9: Prime Minister Benjamin you he decides it's time to proceed

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Speaker 9: with the ground defensive inside Ruffer, because if his troops

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Speaker 9: go into Rougher, then obviously any effort towards a sea

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Speaker 9: spire is off the table, at least for the short term.

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Speaker 9: So you know, this is why these talks going on

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Speaker 9: in Cairo again today and they spread to effets to

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Speaker 9: get to this spar.

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Speaker 1: Okay, And I say that we will continue to track

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Speaker 1: for our listeners. Roslynd Matheson, our EMEA news director, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for being with us this morning.

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Speaker 2: Here in the UK ahead of the two by elections

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Speaker 2: on Thursday, the country's housing shortage is in the spotlight

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Speaker 2: once again. Exclusive analysis compiled by Bloomberg show the three

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Speaker 2: hundred thousand new homes per year target promised by the

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Speaker 2: Conservatives in twenty nineteen and later adopted by Labor in

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Speaker 2: the form of one and a half million homes over

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Speaker 2: the next parliament isn't actually enough, and that's because of

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Speaker 2: a projected surgeon population and the long running deficit in

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Speaker 2: house building. Here to explain it all is our residential

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Speaker 2: real estate reporter Damien Sheppard. Damien, good to see you

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Speaker 2: this morning. If three hundred thousand homes per year new

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Speaker 2: homes isn't enough, how many do we actually need?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 10: So I have all the things that Labor and the

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Speaker 10: Conservatives disagree on. One thing they do agree on is

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Speaker 10: that three hundred thousand, three hundred thousand homes a year

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Speaker 10: is needed in the UK to start to solve the

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Speaker 10: housing deficit that we have. It was in the twenty

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Speaker 10: nineteen Conservative Party manifesto to target three hundred thousand homes

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Speaker 10: a year, and the Labor Party towards the end of

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Speaker 10: last year advised that one point five million homes will

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Speaker 10: be built over the next parliament, which averages three hundred

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Speaker 10: thousand a year. But we've put some calculations together based

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Speaker 10: on fresh population data that came out earlier this year

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Speaker 10: and all of the miss targets that we've had over

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Speaker 10: the previous parliament, and the reality is that we'd actually

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Speaker 10: need almost four hundred thousand homes a year to make

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Speaker 10: up for the shortfall during the Conservative parliament and also

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Speaker 10: the projected surge in population that's coming in the UK.

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Speaker 10: So whoever wins the next general election may have to

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Speaker 10: look at those numbers again and factor in that only

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Speaker 10: an average of about two hundred thousands of built a

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Speaker 10: year since twenty nineteen, so they're going to need to

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Speaker 10: roughly double that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, how easy is it to really do that? I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, and we haven't even included the fact, you know,

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Speaker 1: three hundred thousand single unit apartments is not the same

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Speaker 1: as a big house that might house many people. But look,

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Speaker 1: how is the government going to actually try to improve

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Speaker 1: the housebuilding numbers then.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, look, I mean, at least in the short term,

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Speaker 10: it's going to be very difficult. We've seen a massive

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Speaker 10: drop in the number of homes going under construction and

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Speaker 10: fewer homes are being granted planning permission per year now

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Speaker 10: even those with planning. Of those, about three hundred thousand

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Speaker 10: potential homes are yet to even go on site in

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Speaker 10: the UK because the numbers just aren't adding up for

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Speaker 10: the builders given inflation and high rates. So this all

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Speaker 10: really points to things getting even worse on the home

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Speaker 10: building front. Some might say the next government is inheriting

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Speaker 10: a bit of a mess when it comes to the

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Speaker 10: house building situation, so it'll be interesting to see how

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Speaker 10: they can tackle that.

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Speaker 2: Of course, we have those two votes this week in

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Speaker 2: the constituencies of Wellingboro and Kingswood. Are those places where

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Speaker 2: housing's go to be a big issue?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, Well, this all came to life in Wellingborough in

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Speaker 10: December last year. A homeless man who was sleeping in

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Speaker 10: the town's park was found dead on a night where

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Speaker 10: the temperature dropped to freezing. Now, during the pandemic, the

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Speaker 10: closest homeless shelter in Wellingborough was shut down, so the

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Speaker 10: closest one now is a thirty minute bus journey away.

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Speaker 10: I had a chat to the mayor of Wellingborough who

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Speaker 10: said there's a lot of factory workers in the town

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Speaker 10: who simply can't afford a place to live, and given

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Speaker 10: the lack of supply, demand is still high and prices

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Speaker 10: remain elevated. Now. The mayor admits that immigration is also

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Speaker 10: going to be a big vote winner this year when

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Speaker 10: it comes to the by election, and that's because of

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Speaker 10: the link to housing, when we go back to those

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Speaker 10: population projections showing even more people coming into the UK,

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Speaker 10: So housing and immigration are starting to sort of merge

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Speaker 10: together in these small towns as vote winners for politicians

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Speaker 10: and sort of you know, for people who really really

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Speaker 10: are getting tired of not being able to property.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka and.

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