WEBVTT - What’s gone wrong with Nigeria’s economy?

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Nigeria was supposed to be Africa's powerhouse. Its vast population,

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<v Speaker 2>cultural influence and oil reserves seem to set it up

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<v Speaker 2>with a chance to be a big player among the

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<v Speaker 2>world's major economies. But now it's facing what some are

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<v Speaker 2>calling the biggest economic crisis in a generation and a

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<v Speaker 2>government that is failing to meet its country's basic needs.

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<v Speaker 2>With the world turning increasingly away from fossil fuels, did

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<v Speaker 2>Nigeria get too hooked on oil?

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<v Speaker 3>I have consistently maintained the position that the first subsidy

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<v Speaker 3>had to go. This one's beneficiar measure add outleast its usefulness.

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<v Speaker 3>Our economy is going through a tough patch.

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<v Speaker 2>A year into the presidency of Bullet Tinubu. We're asking

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<v Speaker 2>if reforms that he's tried to implement can help turn

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<v Speaker 2>the country around, or whether they're making things worse for everyday.

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<v Speaker 4>Nigerian's on the ground.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Jennifer Zabasadjap and this is the Next Africa Podcast,

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<v Speaker 2>bringing you one story each week from the continent driving

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<v Speaker 2>the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>can provide. Bloomberg's and Duka or Jinmo has been working

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<v Speaker 2>on this story and he's joining us now from abujab

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<v Speaker 2>and Duka, thank you so much for joining us, and

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<v Speaker 2>really great story.

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<v Speaker 4>For everybody who hasn't taken a look at it, they should.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's just start with President Tanubu because this is

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<v Speaker 2>really sort of the crux of the story here and

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<v Speaker 2>what's happened since he was elected a little over a

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<v Speaker 2>year ago. Now talk to us about who he is

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<v Speaker 2>and how Nigeria was faring when he was elected last year.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, he's a format two time governor of Lego State.

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<v Speaker 5>Lego State is Nigeria's commercial capital, the richest state of

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<v Speaker 5>the country, the most populous city in West Africa, and

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<v Speaker 5>he was elected on the back of what he did

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<v Speaker 5>in Legos. He improved infrastructure, he tripled the internally generated

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<v Speaker 5>revenue in the state and when he contested last year

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<v Speaker 5>in the election, he came in on that promise of

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<v Speaker 5>turny Ninjuria around as he did in Legos. During his

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<v Speaker 5>time as governor, he was instrumental to Noble in the

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<v Speaker 5>formation of the All Progressive Congress that's his party in

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<v Speaker 5>twenty fifteen and when the party came into power in

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<v Speaker 5>twenty fifteen, he was elected as the facto leader of

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<v Speaker 5>the party and Ninia was in a difficult place when

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<v Speaker 5>he took over. We had inflation that was in w

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<v Speaker 5>d already, we had more, especially an economy that was

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<v Speaker 5>struggling with.

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<v Speaker 1>Very high budget deb seats.

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<v Speaker 5>You had declining could production, which is a big problem.

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<v Speaker 5>And so he came in promising to fix that. And

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<v Speaker 5>mister sinopul knew exactly what he was getting into because

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<v Speaker 5>he admitted that his challenges were there and that he

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<v Speaker 5>was going to fix them.

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<v Speaker 2>So then let's just get into some of the challenges.

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<v Speaker 2>Then what is it actually looking like though on the

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<v Speaker 2>ground for everyday Nigerians.

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<v Speaker 5>Most Nigerians would tell you that you're facing the most

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<v Speaker 5>difficult periods of their lives. And if you look at

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<v Speaker 5>the data, it backs it up. Inflation is at a

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<v Speaker 5>three decade high. The last time Nangeria experience such a

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<v Speaker 5>high level of inflation rate was in the mid nineties

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<v Speaker 5>when you still had the military rule.

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<v Speaker 1>Here in Nigeria.

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<v Speaker 5>You have Nigerians, we were already spending around six percent

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<v Speaker 5>of your incommon fold alone, now having to spend far

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<v Speaker 5>more just to survive. And I've seen the consequences of that.

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<v Speaker 5>Earlier this year, we saw people hungry, people raiding warehouses

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<v Speaker 5>where greens were kept and the army had to be

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<v Speaker 5>calling to protect those warehouses. We saw stampede in legal

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<v Speaker 5>people hewing up to get food and a couple of

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<v Speaker 5>people die there. So things are quite die on the

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<v Speaker 5>ground now. So people have gone through this very difficult

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<v Speaker 5>period of high inflation rate and they've not really seen

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<v Speaker 5>our wages increased to keep up with that.

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<v Speaker 4>Do people blame President Tinubu for this?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean he's only been in an office just over

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<v Speaker 2>a year, and if you think about it, he's also

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<v Speaker 2>from the same party as President Buhari, who was his predecessor.

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<v Speaker 2>Who are people sort of pointing the finger at They.

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<v Speaker 5>Blame him partly because this is his party. This party

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<v Speaker 5>has been in past since twenty fifteen and he was

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<v Speaker 5>instrumental in the emagence of form a President WM in

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<v Speaker 5>twenty fifteen.

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<v Speaker 1>So many Ninjerans feel that.

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<v Speaker 5>He's part of this face this problem where people are

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<v Speaker 5>passing through.

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<v Speaker 3>Now.

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<v Speaker 5>There are those also who are a little bit fair

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<v Speaker 5>to him and they said, look, this man has only

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<v Speaker 5>been in power for just over a year and challenges

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<v Speaker 5>he met are not of his own making. And he

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<v Speaker 5>even said that when he was campaigning that he's going

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<v Speaker 5>to be his own man. He wasn't going to take

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<v Speaker 5>the responsibility for the problems challenge is created by his

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<v Speaker 5>party and by his predecessor. He's worked back on some

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<v Speaker 5>of the policies of the previous government and he's made

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<v Speaker 5>that clear that some of those policies did not work.

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<v Speaker 5>So policies, especially two big reforms, have fined his government

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<v Speaker 5>so far. When he came in last year at the

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<v Speaker 5>end of May, he announced during his inaugurration that fuel

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<v Speaker 5>subsidies was gone. And you have to understand that Nigeria

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<v Speaker 5>is Africa's largest oil producer. However, we don't have local

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<v Speaker 5>refinery and Nigerias so we have Africa's largest oil producers

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<v Speaker 5>importing all of his refined fuel. Both governments then subsidizes

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<v Speaker 5>this important fuel by but its not just what ten

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<v Speaker 5>billion dollars in twenty twenty two, and that's huge.

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<v Speaker 1>That's money that could.

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<v Speaker 5>Have spent on education, money that could have spent on

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<v Speaker 5>building hospitals when I could be spent.

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<v Speaker 1>On building rules.

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<v Speaker 5>And once in the book came in, he stopped that

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<v Speaker 5>I'll come back to this later gen just to say

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<v Speaker 5>that he had challenges and that has had to be

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<v Speaker 5>to be reintroduced.

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<v Speaker 1>That was one policy.

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<v Speaker 5>The second policy was the exchange rate, and that was

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<v Speaker 5>a big problem.

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<v Speaker 1>For businesses in Nigeria.

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<v Speaker 5>And so what you had during the former regime of

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<v Speaker 5>president where it was different exchange rates. We had one

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<v Speaker 5>for certain importers that we are close to the government.

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<v Speaker 5>We had one for those who were trying to pay

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<v Speaker 5>school fees for the.

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<v Speaker 1>Children aboard those we are going abroad for health care services.

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<v Speaker 5>And these multiple exchange rates, you know, equated a situation

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<v Speaker 5>where there was around tripping and there was loss of

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<v Speaker 5>habitraging the system.

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<v Speaker 1>And once it came in singable, he also stopped that.

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<v Speaker 5>So those we are two period forms of the previous

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<v Speaker 5>administration that he stopped during his first month in office

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<v Speaker 5>last year.

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<v Speaker 2>It's interesting because a lot of African leaders are facing

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<v Speaker 2>this dilemma, right because they need to sort of contend

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<v Speaker 2>with the economic situation that their country is in. But

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<v Speaker 2>then they're also hearing it from everyday citizens, right. We're

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<v Speaker 2>seeing that in Kenya similarly. But would you say the

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<v Speaker 2>situation has just continued to get worse then, just given

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<v Speaker 2>what you mentioned about the fuel subsidies, about the naira

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<v Speaker 2>sort of plunging.

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<v Speaker 4>Have things gotten worse?

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<v Speaker 1>It depends on what you ask Jen. You won't get

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<v Speaker 1>this straightforward us.

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<v Speaker 5>And if you ask ordinary Naingerians who have been at

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<v Speaker 5>the receiving end of inflation that's spiked, triggered out of

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<v Speaker 5>course by what you've mentioned, currency clunging. Currency has been

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<v Speaker 5>developed twice since June last year. If you ask those

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<v Speaker 5>Nigerians were having to grapple with this economic situation, they

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<v Speaker 5>will say, look things I've gotten wars on that presenting boom.

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<v Speaker 5>If we speak to foreign investors and we've seen lots

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<v Speaker 5>of portfolio influence coming into night Egeria, they will say

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<v Speaker 5>these reforms is carried out and what they're expected of him.

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<v Speaker 5>The currency situation was such a nightmare for people to plan.

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<v Speaker 5>Volatility created and you know the people who say that

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<v Speaker 5>has continued into his time.

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<v Speaker 1>But we've seen some stability in recent times.

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<v Speaker 5>We've seen the parallel ex generate has almost equal with

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<v Speaker 5>the official ex generate and that will be counted as

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<v Speaker 5>a win by the Central Bank and by this government.

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<v Speaker 5>So it depends on what we're asking foreign investors, the IMF,

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<v Speaker 5>the World Bank. They think the administration and the reforms

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<v Speaker 5>carried out so far on the rights track. However, for

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<v Speaker 5>Narina enguriers, the feel that this is the worst period

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<v Speaker 5>of their lives.

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<v Speaker 4>And you gonna stick with us.

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<v Speaker 2>When we come back, we'll talk about how the largest

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<v Speaker 2>oil producer in Africa, of course that's Nigeria is still

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<v Speaker 2>facing an energy crisis.

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<v Speaker 4>We'll be right back and welcome back.

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<v Speaker 2>And Duga is stal with me as we look at

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<v Speaker 2>Nigeria and its economy as it faces what some are

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<v Speaker 2>calling the worst economic crisis in a generation. So and Diaka,

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<v Speaker 2>we were talking briefly about this before the break. Nigeria

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<v Speaker 2>is the largest oil producer in Africa. You wouldn't know

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<v Speaker 2>that based on imports that you were just mentioning. It's

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<v Speaker 2>also a member of OPAK. So why is the money

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<v Speaker 2>not reaching the economy? What is the disconnect here?

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<v Speaker 5>It's a question that most Nandurans ask themselves every day,

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<v Speaker 5>especially if you go to the Niger Delta where you

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<v Speaker 5>have these communities where the oil is socked out from.

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<v Speaker 5>Most of those communities are some of the pogrest communities

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<v Speaker 5>in the country, if not in Africa, So they live

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<v Speaker 5>in that much wealth, it doesn't trickle down to them.

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<v Speaker 5>And it's a combination of several factors. The state owned

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<v Speaker 5>National Patrolum Company, it's one of the most opique companies

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<v Speaker 5>in the world. Its books are rarely opening. It's released

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<v Speaker 5>its last audited accounts in twenty twenty two after several

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<v Speaker 5>years of not doing that. At a moment, for instance,

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<v Speaker 5>jen no one knows the true state of the subsidy

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<v Speaker 5>payments in Nigeria. We know for a fact that Fewgerslam

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<v Speaker 5>prizes have been cucked since.

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<v Speaker 1>August last year. We don't know how the NPC is

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<v Speaker 1>doing that.

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<v Speaker 5>The piece it keeps insisting that is no longer paying

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<v Speaker 5>any subsidy on that we know that it is not

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<v Speaker 5>possible because food is an international product and we've sent

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<v Speaker 5>prices fluctuting international markets, but it remains stable here in Nigeria.

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<v Speaker 1>So it means that the mass is not adding up.

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<v Speaker 5>But the end piece won't give you any answers to that,

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<v Speaker 5>and it gives you snapshot of how there is that

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<v Speaker 5>lack of transparency and accountability in Nigerias or sector and

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<v Speaker 5>that has led to a lack of investment by the

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<v Speaker 5>big oil companies.

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<v Speaker 4>So then and just to wrap up. I mean when

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<v Speaker 4>we look forward.

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<v Speaker 2>I know it's hard to predict just given all of

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<v Speaker 2>the moving parts that are happening right now, but what

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<v Speaker 2>is the outlook or maybe what is going to ultimately

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<v Speaker 2>determine whether or not these reforms that President Tinubu is

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<v Speaker 2>putting in place is actually going to start working. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>what is it that we need to pay attention to.

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<v Speaker 2>Is it when people stop demonstrating? Is it when imports

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<v Speaker 2>of oil go down? What would you say? I think

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<v Speaker 2>we have to look at the exchange rate.

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<v Speaker 5>We have to pin this on some of the big

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<v Speaker 5>reforms of this government and to stand out so far

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<v Speaker 5>one the free flot of the nairad and allowing the

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<v Speaker 5>currency here to treat at its true value. We have

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<v Speaker 5>to see if the government at some point begins to

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<v Speaker 5>defend that, and that will be an indication that has

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<v Speaker 5>then gone full circle from where it started.

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<v Speaker 1>At the momento, the science look good.

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<v Speaker 5>We've seen a major almost a major differences is quite

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<v Speaker 5>minimal between the parallel markets of the nyorus value on

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<v Speaker 5>the street and what is SCIPI in the Central Bank

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<v Speaker 5>of Ninjuria is selling officially.

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<v Speaker 1>On that score, I would say.

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<v Speaker 5>The government is doing well so far. I think the

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<v Speaker 5>next big thing though, is inflation. We have to keep

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<v Speaker 5>an eye and the inflation rating the higinerier is quite

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<v Speaker 5>high at the moment and the SIPEN has made clear

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<v Speaker 5>that its one big barcel at the moment is making

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<v Speaker 5>sure that inflation vite uses which feel it has picked

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<v Speaker 5>and that's the indication we get from looking at the data.

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<v Speaker 5>On the other hand, the big hurdlings across it is

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<v Speaker 5>subsidy payments and what it decides to do with that one.

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<v Speaker 5>It's more of a political issue than it is an

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<v Speaker 5>economic issue, because most Nigerians see that cheap fuel that

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<v Speaker 5>they have to buy the poems as the only thing

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<v Speaker 5>that they gets from the government.

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<v Speaker 1>And you don't blame some of them in the roads

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<v Speaker 1>and bad states.

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<v Speaker 5>In the hospitals are barely maintained, their calls for their treatment.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't think the government has the political will to

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<v Speaker 5>let gasoline sell at this true value in Nigeria, we

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<v Speaker 5>think at the moment, and it did a suppose it

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<v Speaker 5>by is selling for around half its price. If he

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<v Speaker 5>decides to sell it freely, I think we might see

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<v Speaker 5>Kenya style protest sooner rather than the thy in Nigeria.

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<v Speaker 2>Right. We've seen in Kenya how the president has had

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<v Speaker 2>to step to pressure from young people, so it will

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<v Speaker 2>be interesting to see how that plays out in a

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<v Speaker 2>country like Nigeria. Dukajin incredible reporting. Thank you so much

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<v Speaker 2>for joining.

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<v Speaker 1>Us this week. My pleasure, jim My pleasure.

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<v Speaker 2>And as Juka mentioned, time will only tell whether Tanigu's

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<v Speaker 2>reforms are actually bearing fruit. But if Kenya is any example,

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<v Speaker 2>the president may not have much time to prove to

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<v Speaker 2>Nigerians that the short term pain is in fact for

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<v Speaker 2>the long term gain.

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<v Speaker 4>This program was.

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<v Speaker 2>Produced by Adrian Bradley. If you like the episode, don't

0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:11.280
<v Speaker 2>forget to comment and subscribe. Wherever you are listening to

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<v Speaker 2>this podcast, I'm Jennifer's Abasaga. Thanks as always for listening