1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,639 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. This really knocked me 7 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: off my game. Here my colleague, co host Katie Greifeld, 8 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 1: and my producer Eric Mullow, neither of them have seen 9 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: Top Gun. No, I can't even imagine what is about. 10 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:34,560 Speaker 1: So the homework for the kids today is go home, 11 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 1: get a streaming service of your choice and stream Top Gun. 12 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: That's the homework because we are a Top Gun two 13 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 1: coming out, and you've gotta be prepared for that. Dan, 14 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: I know, I know Dan Genter has seen Top Gun. 15 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:49,879 Speaker 1: Dan Genter, CEO Chairman RNC Genter Capital Management, Dan, are 16 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 1: you a Top Gun fan? I am absolutely a Top 17 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: gust fan. I've seen it several times. I'm actually a 18 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: pilot myself, So it's like that explains it my theme movie, 19 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: and I just I align with you. I can't believe 20 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: they haven't seen it. But but I have faith in 21 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 1: the future that they will go home and look at 22 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: this and round out their education. Yes, I can't agree more. 23 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 1: All right, then let's get back to these pesky markets here. 24 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: We have some green on the screen today, but the 25 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: bricks that are in this wall of worry, there's just 26 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 1: a lot of them. How are you looking at these 27 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 1: markets today? What are you telling your clients? Well, I 28 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: think that what you have to do, Paul, is which 29 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 1: you always have to do in these kind of situations 30 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:30,399 Speaker 1: and crisis, is that the you have to really cut 31 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: through the fundamentals. It's not that you can't totally ignore 32 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: the emotion because obviously the market is going to trade 33 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 1: it on emotion. Otherwise we just traded a constant p 34 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,559 Speaker 1: at all times. But you still have to come back 35 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 1: or what are the fundamentals of this market? You know, 36 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 1: talking about aviation you started at thirty foot Look and 37 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: you basically look at the overall economics and an essence 38 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: are we are we going into a recession and they 39 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 1: and the fact is, you know, we're not. You know, 40 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: we're slowing, Earnings are slowing. Certainly growth is going to slow, 41 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: but but look, we're still going to be probably above 42 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: FED expectations at at least two and a half three 43 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: GDP growth, you know, going in through the mainner of 44 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: this year. In three we think that earnings are certainly 45 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: gonna slow, but we're probably going to see sp earnings 46 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: up five or six percent, and so therefore you don't 47 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: have a recession. The market is probably going to be 48 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:24,239 Speaker 1: flat slightly up. We see about a eight percent market 49 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: over the next twelve months, and uh, mainly probably some 50 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: pe contraction, but earnings are going to drive the rest 51 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: of it. And so it's still it's it's now very 52 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 1: much of a stock pickers market, and uh, you can 53 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 1: buy into some of this weakness and certainly the volatility 54 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 1: we're seeing, and that's what we're doing. Well, let's wrap 55 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: some of the movements that we've seen in commodity markets 56 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 1: into that, because obviously all eyes have been on crude 57 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: oil for you know, several months now, and uh, I 58 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: mean we're looking at crude oil at close to a 59 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 1: hundred dollars a barrel, but a hundred two dollars a barrel, 60 00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: I mean, assuming we stay around this range, mean, what 61 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: does that mean for you know, the fundamentals of the 62 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,399 Speaker 1: U S economy and for companies you know, dealing with 63 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:10,359 Speaker 1: those input costs. Well, Katie, I mean you're absolutely right. 64 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 1: Is that this market is driven independent of the war obviously, 65 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: which is a major factor, but from an economic standpoint, 66 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: is being driven by oil and inflation. And and even 67 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 1: the oil is only three percent of the inflationary inputs 68 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,520 Speaker 1: now versus where it was many years ago, it's still 69 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 1: a major factor when you start to look at how 70 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: it affects every individual and and how it affects their 71 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 1: disposable income. I mean, the current increases that we've had 72 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 1: an oil we estimate is going to cost the average 73 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: family over a thousand dollars a year more. And so 74 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: something's going to give with that. So a stabilization and 75 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: oil is very key to us. We think that equal 76 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: liberal was somewhere around eighty dollars. But it's going to 77 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: affect earnings and that's part of what we're factoring in 78 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: that it's going to slow the economy from overall consumption 79 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 1: because we're driven by consumption. And if you take money 80 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: away from people, and increase in oil prices is basically 81 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: like a tax. Uh you basically you take it away 82 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: from people. Uh, It doesn't add anything to productivity. They 83 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: just lose the ability to spend on something else and 84 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: therefore earnings go down. It affects consumer, uh, mainly consumer 85 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: non durables, but also durables. So that's to us as 86 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,040 Speaker 1: part of that slowing effect. Anytime you have you know 87 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 1: that displacement, if you will inflation, it goes through the 88 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 1: whole system. But I don't think that that takes us negative. 89 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: It just takes us to where we're at slower growth. 90 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:38,840 Speaker 1: So that's kind of where I wanted to go Dan, 91 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 1: because a lot of folks are saying, boy, this Federal Reserve, 92 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 1: it is clearly communicated that it wants to fight inflation 93 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 1: in part through rate increases. But the risk is maybe 94 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 1: they go too far, too fast and push this economy 95 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: into a recession, and nobody wants that. How do you 96 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: kind of weigh those risks? Well, look, I think it's 97 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 1: baked in that one thing. You know, with regard US 98 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:04,479 Speaker 1: two chairman policies being has been extraordinarily transparent. I believe 99 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 1: he's also doing that now. I don't think we're going 100 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 1: to be surprised. And and the market is largely discounting 101 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:11,719 Speaker 1: a lot of that already. I mean we've we've had 102 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 1: a hundred basis points increase, uh, not exactly a parallel shift, 103 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: but close to it. Certainly the ten years up a 104 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 1: hundred basis points, uh since November, and so a lot 105 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: of it's baked in the cake already, and they are 106 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 1: going to slow it now. We feel that we'll see 107 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 1: definitely another seventy and almost certainly another hundred basis points 108 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: from here. You know, we've modeled that out, uh to 109 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: see what does that really do to us. We think 110 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: it's largely baked. It's baked into our numbers with what 111 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: I've mentioned earlier for SB orange growth and also for 112 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 1: the overall economy. Uh. Certainly it's going to squeeze the 113 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: housing market. Uh. You know, it just makes everything once 114 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: again more expensive. It really adds to inflation, if you will, 115 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 1: because your cost of money is going to be higher. 116 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: You know. Well, now, whether they overshoot it, I mean 117 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 1: personally I think that they'll go slower. Uh, they'll continue 118 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: you as the as the data comes in, but it 119 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 1: wouldn't be unusual for them to do a fifty A 120 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 1: matter of fact, if you look historically, usually the first 121 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 1: time the Fed reverses course from uh, they go fifty, 122 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 1: they go fifty at the beginning, whether they're raising or lower, 123 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 1: and they go fifty and at the end they go fifty. 124 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 1: The signal that they've stopped. So it would not be 125 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 1: out of normal to see that. Hey, Dan, thanks so 126 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 1: much for joining us there. Always appreciate getting your prospective. 127 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 1: Dan Genter, CEO, ce IO and chairman. It's also a 128 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 1: pilot of r n C Genter Capital Management. Here. Now, 129 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 1: let's going to Lynn Franco and break down some of 130 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: those UM consumer confidence number. She's the director of Economic 131 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 1: Indicators and Surveys. At the conference board, Lynn talked to 132 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 1: us about the consumer today. What did your data show you, Well, 133 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:54,160 Speaker 1: we're saying that the consumer confidence is holding steady, so 134 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 1: we went from one oh five seven last month to 135 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,479 Speaker 1: one oh seven point two. But it really is being 136 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 1: suppoored by the present conditions where consumers are telling us 137 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 1: at least the economy remains on somewhat stable footing, and 138 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: that's really just because we have very strong employment conditions, 139 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 1: so that's really sort of boosting consumer confidence. Looking ahead, 140 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: we've seen expectations that continue to deteriorate. UM within consumer 141 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: sighting both inflation, especially rising prices at the gas pump, 142 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: and the war in Ukraine as um, sort of the 143 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 1: reasons why they are a little bit more apprehensive about 144 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 1: the outlook. And you mentioned that, you know, there is 145 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: a lot of confidence in the labor market, and looking 146 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: at this morning's data, is the sheriff consumers who said 147 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 1: the jobs were plentiful increased to a record high of 148 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: about fifty seven point two per cent. But I mean, 149 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: how how much work is that confidence in the labor 150 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 1: market doing right now? Because of course, you know, we're 151 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:55,679 Speaker 1: dealing with record high inflation. It seems like that hasn't 152 00:07:55,840 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 1: undermined the labor market yet, correct, And in fact, our 153 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 1: inflation question hit and all time high, so it's really 154 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 1: being offset by strong employment conditions. Um. But you know, 155 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: we do expect inflation and you know, the war in 156 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 1: Ukraine to continue to provide hig winds both to growth, 157 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: spending and confidence. So it remains to be seen just 158 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: how you know, well confidence holds up, and in terms 159 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 1: of overall growth, we do have it somewhat weaker than 160 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 1: last month. Our outlook has maybe GDP growing at about 161 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 1: one point seven and Q one down to one point 162 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 1: three and Q two and also consumer spending softening as 163 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: a result of higher inflation. Lynn, I mean, the labor 164 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: markets just fascinates me. I'm still wondering where those three 165 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: four or five million people are that we're in the 166 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 1: workforce pre pandemic, Where are they now? Are they going 167 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: to come back? What's the data you've seen, the analysis 168 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: you've done about those people. Well, we've seen you know, 169 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: in particular, you know, women have been hard hit right 170 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 1: in childcare has been an issue. So this is sort 171 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 1: of one segment of the labor market that continues to 172 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 1: uh sort of hasn't quite bounced back from you know, 173 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: pre COVID pandemic levels. So I think that's going to 174 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,680 Speaker 1: continue for the next couple of months. But what we're 175 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: seeing here and I think what we expect to see 176 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,200 Speaker 1: at the end of the week are pretty good employment numbers, 177 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: so at least that will continue to support consumer confidence 178 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: and growth in the short term. And then focusing on 179 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 1: the consumer, you know, a question we ask a lot is, Okay, 180 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 1: when does inflation increase the point where you know, people 181 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:45,839 Speaker 1: start putting off purchases or stop spending as much money 182 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: as they have been. Um, I'm curious you know what 183 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:52,319 Speaker 1: you see, uh. In regards to that question, well, we 184 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: see a little bit of you know, inflation, and also 185 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: I think, you know, interest rate hikes and anticipation of 186 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: have being a little bit of a softening effect at 187 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: least that we're seeing over the last few months. And 188 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 1: you know, sort of automobile purchases, home purchases. You know, 189 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: we've seen mortgage rates of going up, so sort of 190 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 1: these big ticket items that are interest rate sensitive, we're 191 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 1: beginning to see a little bit of softening there as well. Lynn. 192 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 1: Some economists are introducing the word recession into their talking points. 193 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 1: Is that a meaningful risk for the US economy and 194 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,720 Speaker 1: your from your perspective, From our perspective, we don't see 195 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 1: your recession. We do see softening and growth and consumer 196 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 1: spending over the next several months, but at this point 197 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,679 Speaker 1: so we're not forecasting recession. All right, Lynn, thank you 198 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. As always, Lynn Franco, the 199 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 1: director of Economic Indicators and Surveys at the conference board 200 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 1: at breaking down the consumer confidence number today, which came 201 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: out a little bit better and expected. It is finally 202 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 1: times talk about crypto. We're going to do that with 203 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 1: Greg King. He is the CEO of Osprey Funds. Uh. 204 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: They offer access to cryptos such as Salana, Bitcoin, UH, 205 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 1: Polka Dot, you name it via traditional vehicles. Greg, it's 206 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 1: great to have you with us. Let's start with a 207 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: big rebound that we've seen in the crypto space over 208 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: the past week or so. I'm looking at bitcoin at 209 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: just a hair below forty eight thousand dollars per coin. 210 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:19,199 Speaker 1: How has that translated into flows in your funds? Are 211 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 1: you seeing cash come in? So the bitcoin fund that 212 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: we operate is traded on the secondary market under the 213 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: ticular oh b tc UM. It's similar to UM, the 214 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: Gray Skull Trust that's been up for a long time. 215 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: It's just at a different price point, more more, less 216 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 1: expensive for investors. But these products trade a little bit 217 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 1: differently than actual bitcoin because there's a fixed supply, So 218 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: they traded premiums and discounts, and in times like this 219 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 1: when the price is rallying, you can see that discount narrow. 220 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,679 Speaker 1: For a long time, those products traded in their premium, 221 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: but over the last year or so, they've been trading 222 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: in a discount. So it is an interesting opportunity for 223 00:11:57,040 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: investors to get ahold of bitcoin at basically less based value. 224 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:05,839 Speaker 1: All right, Greg, So we are going into a significantly 225 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 1: rising interest rate environment. Do we have any data to 226 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:14,319 Speaker 1: show how crypto performs in that type of environment. It's 227 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 1: a great question. I think the part that we're focused 228 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 1: on is real rates, right, because unfortunately real rates are 229 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:25,439 Speaker 1: pretty severely negative with the inflation numbers we've seen seven 230 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: and a half percent and the ten years you know, 231 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: two and a half and so in those environments, the 232 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 1: natural comparison, of course, the bitcoin UM for those of 233 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 1: us kind of living in that world, is the old 234 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,199 Speaker 1: world version of bitcoin gold, right, And I know a 235 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 1: lot of people out there are cringing when I say that, 236 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:46,679 Speaker 1: but the reality is that bitcoin has established itself as 237 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 1: a digital substitute for gold, and so we would expect 238 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 1: it to behave similarly and negative real interest rate environments 239 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 1: are fantastic for gold historically, so you are seeing some 240 00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 1: of that develop in the price a bitcoin. You've also 241 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: seen a few announcements with UM. I think it started 242 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: a few weeks ago with the White House putting out 243 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: the directive to UM, you know, responsibly innovate with digital assets. 244 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 1: But then more recently there were some announcements UM by 245 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 1: a group in Korea that you know, audience members are 246 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:19,959 Speaker 1: not deep into the crypt of the world. They may 247 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: not have heard of it. It's a large stable coin 248 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:25,839 Speaker 1: project UM called Terra that's buying quite a bit of 249 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 1: bitcoin for its reserves. And so you have these new, 250 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 1: uh you know, digital assets participants almost acting like miniature 251 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: central banks and using bitcoin as their own reserve asset. 252 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:40,560 Speaker 1: And Greg, I want to circle back to a point 253 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: you made the fact that o b tc your inaugural product. 254 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 1: It's trading at a discount similar to the Gray Scale 255 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 1: product GBTC, and you know the way you framed it 256 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,319 Speaker 1: as you know you can pick up bitcoin at a discount. 257 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,319 Speaker 1: The pushback would be that long term holders of this trust, 258 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: you know, they they've really seen there in vestments road 259 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 1: and they're they're now they would have been better off 260 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 1: holding bitcoin itself. And I'm curious, how do you fix 261 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 1: the discount if there is a fixed supply of your trust. 262 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 1: I know that Gray Scale has been buying back shares 263 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: of the trust, or rather their parent company. Has have 264 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 1: you considered anything similar? We have? We have. I think 265 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: that what we're focused on. We keep pretty close tabs 266 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: on the um SEC in the regulatory environment. I think 267 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 1: that's that's one of the themes you're seeing this year. 268 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 1: That's that's constructive. UM, you did get the Bitcoin features 269 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: et F approved, You've got you know, the Biden White 270 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 1: House putting on the directive. UM, there seems to be 271 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: movement that's establishing some amount of clarity on the regulatory side, 272 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 1: which is all good for the prospects of something like 273 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: a bitcoin PF. And so our focus would be to 274 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 1: convert our fund to an EPF when that's possible, and 275 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: at that point we'd expected to trade in line with 276 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 1: fair value. By the way your comment earlier, I think, 277 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 1: I think is UM totally dependent on when investors came 278 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 1: into you know, either our product or other people's product. 279 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 1: You know, So it's it's really everybody's got their own 280 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: story in terms of when they came in UM and 281 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: when they when they came out. But you know, it's 282 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 1: an unfortunate situation in the sense that the regulatory environment 283 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: has just taken I mean, you had the wink of 284 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 1: us twins filing for the first bitcoin ETF in two 285 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 1: thousand thirteen, and I mean, given that we have been 286 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: waiting so long, we did get movement in October, we 287 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 1: got that derivatives back Bitcoin fund. That didn't seem to 288 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: be the holy grail that the crypto industry was waiting for. Though, 289 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: when do you think we could see movement and an 290 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: approval of a physically backed bitcoin ETF. Well, a couple 291 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 1: of your own analysts wrote an article the other day 292 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: about the SEC's proposal to expand the definition of the 293 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: word exchange and some of the regulation. Um, this could 294 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 1: open up the possibility for an ets sooner, um rather 295 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: than later. However, when I say sooner in SEC speak, 296 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: that's you know, a year ish or more. Um. I'm 297 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 1: not sure personally that Mr Gensler is very keen on 298 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 1: the idea of a spot bitcoin ETF. He seems to 299 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: have gotten comfortable with the idea of future is based 300 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: obviously um, But primarily that's because, um, you know, the 301 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 1: futures are are regulated instruments, whereas bitcoin itself is not. So, 302 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 1: you know, the definition of the word exchange being expanded 303 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 1: could uh, you know, capture like a coin base, and 304 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 1: therefore the trading of bitcoin on that exchange would by 305 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 1: definition become regulated trading um, and so on and so forth, 306 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: So it would be a step in that direction, but 307 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: I still think there are other factors. Consider the main 308 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 1: one is bitcoin trade so much offshore and that's just 309 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: really not um something that they can observe directly. All Right, 310 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 1: Great King, thank you so much for joining us, always 311 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 1: like chatting getting the updated all things crypto. Great King, 312 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 1: CEO and founder of Osbrey Funds. Again, they've got the 313 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: uh secure, cost effective access to a select group of 314 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 1: crypto via traditional vehicles. That's what the folks at Osprey do. 315 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 1: All right, let's talk to our next guy because I 316 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 1: really want to get her thoughts here because I she 317 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 1: has a really interesting view of this market that perhaps 318 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 1: investors should be on the lookout for bear market rallies, 319 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:32,159 Speaker 1: which I find very interesting. Katerina semin Eddie, Senior vice president, 320 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: Private Wealth advisor from Morgan Stanley. So, Katerina, are you 321 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,400 Speaker 1: buying this move higher in the markets or is this 322 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 1: a bear market rally? Well, thank you for having me 323 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: on um. This is a good question. Right, we had 324 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 1: a pretty big pullback followed by seemingly a big rally. 325 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:53,400 Speaker 1: But the question is are we in the bear markets? 326 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 1: And we believe so, we believe that yes, this is 327 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 1: a bear market. We have been in a bear market 328 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:03,400 Speaker 1: for quite some time. We came into this year concerned 329 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 1: about evaluations, fed tightening and plation growth slow down, you know, 330 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:09,920 Speaker 1: all of the above, and of course the war in 331 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: Ukraine introduced this new component of now unpredictability and making 332 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 1: all these concerns that we have, you know significantly, you know, wars. Now. 333 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,400 Speaker 1: This is not to say that there are no pockets 334 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: of opportunity in this market. There absolutely are. The investors 335 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 1: should be in position to take advantage of them. But 336 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 1: they are bear market rallies and they have to be 337 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 1: seen as such, and it is very important for the 338 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: outlook for the remainder of this year and in fact 339 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 1: for the next year as well. And Katerina wrap in 340 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 1: what we're seeing in some of these mega cap tech 341 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 1: names in because we're looking at Apples. At Apples eleven 342 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: straight days day of gains, that is the longest streak 343 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: since two thousand three. I don't think smartphones even existed 344 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 1: back then. But the fact that you are seeing such 345 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:59,360 Speaker 1: importantly big parts of the market also contribute in this. 346 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: You know, maybe it's a dead cat bounce, I mean, 347 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,399 Speaker 1: how does that change the profile of this bear market? 348 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:10,159 Speaker 1: Does that shorten the time that we might be in it. Well, Katie, 349 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 1: you you raise a really good point um in the 350 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: market that is volatile. That also introduced the two pockets 351 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:22,919 Speaker 1: of speculation. UH. Investors tend to go with some of 352 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: the names and sectors that they are comfortable with. And 353 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 1: if you look over the last couple of years, TEX 354 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 1: has done extremely well, So this is a known that 355 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 1: for an active investor, you know, is what they go with. 356 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 1: But in fact, even though I agree that this is 357 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,200 Speaker 1: definitely a stock picker's market, this is not a good 358 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: time to buy the index. We would guide the investors 359 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 1: towards more defensive sectors financial, healthcare, real estate utilities. We 360 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 1: would like for them to actually use the dips in 361 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: the market between the bear market rallies to increase the 362 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: quality of the investment portfolio and dig in, dig in 363 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 1: for the volatility, dig in for the unknown because this word, 364 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 1: you know, we don't know how long it's going to last, 365 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 1: and the fact that it is having on global economy 366 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 1: in terms of oil and gas prices, in terms of 367 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: supply chain interruptions, in terms of quest of transportation, and 368 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: how all of this is going to translate into our 369 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 1: economy and in QUOTEA beyond the global level, you know, 370 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 1: it is still unknown, so we have to take advantage 371 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,479 Speaker 1: of the buying opportunities. But instead of just focusing on 372 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: the sectors that have done well in the past, like technology, 373 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 1: we think that it's a much smarter move to go 374 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 1: into the sectors that will be positioned well going forward 375 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 1: and strategically prepare the portfolios for heightened level of volatility. Katarina, 376 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 1: how concerned are you that perhaps this Federal Reserve does 377 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: not get it right, does not engineer soft landing, and 378 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 1: in fact, through their rate policy, pushes this economy into 379 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: a recession. Is that in your forecast? Oh? Um, I 380 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 1: think that said is taking the overall global situation and 381 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 1: specifically the level of inflation that is historically unprecedented very seriously. 382 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 1: They are, um, there's no certain terms that they said 383 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:18,119 Speaker 1: is going to be aggressive in their rate increases, But 384 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 1: in my opinion, economy is strong enough to accommodate these 385 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 1: rate increases. So when we're looking overall of the economy, 386 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 1: we certain they have our share of concerns, but we're 387 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:32,879 Speaker 1: not seeing the recession in the books for US at 388 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 1: least for this year. Next year remains to be seen, 389 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: you know, but we are paying close attention to earnings 390 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: of course, you know the valuations and so far valuations 391 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: have been looking you know, better than expected. But we 392 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 1: think that the negative revisions are going to continue, UM 393 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 1: and even though we're not pulling for the recession at 394 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 1: the moment, you know, we expect higher volatility and that 395 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 1: is the message that you know, we're really conveying to 396 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,159 Speaker 1: our is our clients in you know a number of 397 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,439 Speaker 1: different ways. That's why quality of the investment portfolios is 398 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:09,119 Speaker 1: more important than ever positive real yield sensitivity all of 399 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 1: the holdings, you know, is before we were kind of 400 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 1: looking at the dividend income or just generally income generating 401 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 1: ability of portfolios from perspective of fixed income is just 402 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 1: to kind of value at it. Now it's more important 403 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 1: than ever that at this historically you know, high levels 404 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,119 Speaker 1: of inflation, that that portfolios will be able to weather 405 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 1: this storm. But in my opinion said is UM has 406 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 1: has very strong resolved in order to get it right 407 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 1: this time. All right, Katerina, thanks so much for joining us. Uh. 408 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 1: Yet again, we appreciate getting your views of these market 409 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 1: and be aware of bear market rallies is kind of 410 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,400 Speaker 1: My takeaway here Katerina Seminetti, Senior vice president Private Wealth 411 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: Management at Morgan Stanley. UH, and they've got a huge 412 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 1: private wealth business over there, Morgan Stanley. UH. They've really 413 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,640 Speaker 1: doubled down on that business order last decade. I would 414 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 1: say thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You 415 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts or 416 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on 417 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 1: Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. Put on false Sweeney. 418 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at p T Sweeney before the podcast. 419 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio