1
00:00:02,200 --> 00:00:05,960
Speaker 1: Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios is Bloomberg Daybreak

2
00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:09,479
Speaker 1: for Monday, March six. Coming up today, Tensions heat up

3
00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:12,800
Speaker 1: as the US considers banning investments in parts of China,

4
00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:16,360
Speaker 1: Credit sweet So loses support from one of its biggest backers.

5
00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:20,240
Speaker 1: Investors await testimony from FED chair j Howe and Friday's

6
00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:23,599
Speaker 1: jobs report, and the Republican field narrows as former Maryland

7
00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:26,880
Speaker 1: Governor Larry Hogan bows out of the presidential race. An

8
00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:29,760
Speaker 1: e bite fire Injures five in the Bronx and Mayor

9
00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,880
Speaker 1: Ammas is a warning for fellow Democrats. I'm John Tucker.

10
00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:36,000
Speaker 1: Those stories straight ahead. I'm John Stash, Aaron Sports making

11
00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:38,400
Speaker 1: nine wins in a row for the Knicks, a thrilling

12
00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:42,000
Speaker 1: double overtime victory in Boston the next and Devils also won.

13
00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:47,440
Speaker 1: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak, The Business news

14
00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,520
Speaker 1: you need disturn your day, and just one fifteen minute

15
00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:54,960
Speaker 1: podcast each pointing on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg Business Appen

16
00:00:55,120 --> 00:01:01,360
Speaker 1: everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar

17
00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:04,840
Speaker 1: and I'm Karon Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.

18
00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,199
Speaker 1: We could see more tension between the US and China.

19
00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,840
Speaker 1: Coming out of Capitol Hill this week, the head of

20
00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:14,040
Speaker 1: the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mark Warner, says he will introduce

21
00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:17,520
Speaker 1: a bipartisan bill that would allow the US to systematically

22
00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:22,360
Speaker 1: ban Chinese technology. Warner says that includes TikTok. They are

23
00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,319
Speaker 1: taking data from Americans. Stop keeping it safe. But what

24
00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:28,440
Speaker 1: worries me more with TikTok is that this can be

25
00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,960
Speaker 1: a propaganda tool. Senator Warner made the comments on Fox

26
00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,880
Speaker 1: News Sunday. He says China presents a bigger threat to

27
00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:38,280
Speaker 1: the US than the Soviet Union. Well, Nathan, The TikTok

28
00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,440
Speaker 1: news comes as the White House closes in on an

29
00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,440
Speaker 1: executive order banning a US investment in parts of the

30
00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,000
Speaker 1: Chinese economy, and we get the latest live with Bloomberg.

31
00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:49,320
Speaker 1: Steve Rappaport. Good morning, Steve, Good morning, Karen, and Nathan.

32
00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,480
Speaker 1: The restrictions target investments in projects that can be used

33
00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:57,560
Speaker 1: in China's military applications, including AI and codebreaking technologies. That's

34
00:01:57,600 --> 00:01:59,840
Speaker 1: according to sources who say the White House submitted to

35
00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,040
Speaker 1: reports to Congress on Friday outlining the cost to set

36
00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,360
Speaker 1: up a so called outbound investment program with the Treasury Department.

37
00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,720
Speaker 1: Those reports obtained by Bloomberg indicate President Biden is prepared

38
00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,200
Speaker 1: to request funding for the effort this week in his

39
00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:15,040
Speaker 1: fiscal twenty twenty four budget. Live in New York. I'm

40
00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:18,520
Speaker 1: Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg Daybreak. Steve. Thanks Meantime, China is setting

41
00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,760
Speaker 1: out a modest economic growth target from its National People's

42
00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:25,520
Speaker 1: Congress of around five percent for this year. Beijing's leaders

43
00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:29,280
Speaker 1: are avoiding any form of large stimulus. Bloomberg's Jill DSIs

44
00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,280
Speaker 1: in Hong Kong says it's a conservative target somewhere on

45
00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:34,840
Speaker 1: five percent. Gives Beijing quite a lot of room to

46
00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:38,080
Speaker 1: work with, but they also want to They don't want

47
00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,320
Speaker 1: to overstimulate the economy. They kind of want to keep

48
00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:42,880
Speaker 1: things on track, and ultimately, I think what Beijing is

49
00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:45,639
Speaker 1: looking for this year is economic growth that's really going

50
00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:49,799
Speaker 1: to be driven by a rebound in demand. Bloomberg's Jill

51
00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:53,360
Speaker 1: DSIs says, Chinese Premier League Could Chang hinted Beijing would

52
00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:56,480
Speaker 1: support housing but would also regulate the sector more tightly.

53
00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,079
Speaker 1: Well back here in the US, Nathan, we're learning more

54
00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,480
Speaker 1: about the president you'll field for twenty twenty four. Former

55
00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:06,160
Speaker 1: Maryland Governor Larry Hogan says he will not seek the

56
00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,960
Speaker 1: White House. Bloomberg's Ad Baxter has that story. Hogan says

57
00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,639
Speaker 1: a full field will be very bad for the party

58
00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,359
Speaker 1: in the country. Hogan on CBS has heard here on

59
00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:19,160
Speaker 1: Bloomberg says the party needs to focus on traditional Republican

60
00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:23,880
Speaker 1: values now without causing being part of a train wreck

61
00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,760
Speaker 1: that might repeat history, and just allow us to nominate

62
00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,320
Speaker 1: Donald Trump as our nominee, because I think that would

63
00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:32,480
Speaker 1: be bad for the party and bad for the country now.

64
00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,520
Speaker 1: Trump prevailed in twenty sixteen with about thirty percent of

65
00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:37,800
Speaker 1: the vote in the party, with a field widely split

66
00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,440
Speaker 1: about where things look to stand now. In San Francisco,

67
00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,040
Speaker 1: I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak, Thank you, Ed. Turning to

68
00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:47,080
Speaker 1: the economy, it's a big week for US investors. It

69
00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,000
Speaker 1: all starts with FED chair J Powell testifying before the

70
00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:53,440
Speaker 1: Senate tomorrow. We get more from Bloomberg Markets reporter Valerie Title.

71
00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,360
Speaker 1: It's going to be his last remarks before the next

72
00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,200
Speaker 1: meeting on March twenty second, and markets are going to

73
00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,240
Speaker 1: be paying very close attention to if he keeps using

74
00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,080
Speaker 1: this word disinflation. We haven't heard from him since the

75
00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:09,160
Speaker 1: last CPI report that showed that this disinflation, especially when

76
00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,400
Speaker 1: it comes to the good, the good section of inflation,

77
00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:15,520
Speaker 1: is slowing. Does he perhaps change his change his posture,

78
00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:17,880
Speaker 1: change his tone. Does he maybe not use that word?

79
00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,799
Speaker 1: Also any hints on his view of the recent string

80
00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:25,000
Speaker 1: of strong data. Does he cast it maybe as a

81
00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:28,640
Speaker 1: one off down to seasonal's being readjusted in the new year.

82
00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:33,080
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Valerie Titel says after Powell, attention turns to Friday

83
00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,440
Speaker 1: with the release of February's jobs report. Well in Europe today,

84
00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:39,600
Speaker 1: Nathan shares a Credit sweee or down more than one percent.

85
00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,440
Speaker 1: The troubled Swiss Bank has law support for a moment

86
00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,880
Speaker 1: of its biggest backers, Harris Associates, has sold its entire

87
00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:49,599
Speaker 1: stake in Credit Suiee. The investment firm's chief investment officer,

88
00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,880
Speaker 1: David Harrow, is questioning the future of the lender. Those

89
00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:56,080
Speaker 1: comments follow an interview Harrow did with Bloomberg last August

90
00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,880
Speaker 1: where he issued this morning and the Swiss Bank, you

91
00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:02,120
Speaker 1: can't keep doing the same thing as they've been doing

92
00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:05,520
Speaker 1: over the last decade and get zero results. They have

93
00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,560
Speaker 1: to put an end to it at some point they

94
00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,400
Speaker 1: either have to fix it or to look for other options.

95
00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:14,680
Speaker 1: And that was Harris Associate's chief investment officer David Harrows,

96
00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:18,520
Speaker 1: speaking to Bloomberg in August. Harris was the biggest shareholder

97
00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,640
Speaker 1: in Credit Suite for many years. The firm had its

98
00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:25,440
Speaker 1: stake last year and is now reportedly exited entirely. One

99
00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:27,640
Speaker 1: other bank news out of Europe today, Karen, we're learning

100
00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:31,719
Speaker 1: UBS cut employee bonuses by ten percent last year. The

101
00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:35,120
Speaker 1: move follows a slump at UBS in advising on mergers

102
00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:38,320
Speaker 1: and stock and bond issuance. Well, City Group is preparing

103
00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,000
Speaker 1: to almost double its staff in Paris. The bank is

104
00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:43,920
Speaker 1: building a new trading floor there and its trading division

105
00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:47,440
Speaker 1: will eventually have two hundred and fifty people. They expansion

106
00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,039
Speaker 1: in Paris comes as City and its rivals continue to

107
00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:53,080
Speaker 1: grapple with life after breaks it and capping off our

108
00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,760
Speaker 1: banking news. Karen, please join us today for a special

109
00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:59,679
Speaker 1: conversation with Jamie Diamond, The JP Morgan Chase CEO, sits

110
00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:02,960
Speaker 1: down an exclusive interview on Bloomberg Radio and Television today

111
00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,200
Speaker 1: at eleven thirty am Wall Street Time. You can listen

112
00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,120
Speaker 1: live on Bloomberg radio at Bloomberg dot Com or on

113
00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:16,880
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. It's forty degrees in New York.

114
00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,200
Speaker 1: It'll be sunny this morning with clouds will increase through

115
00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:21,040
Speaker 1: the day on our way to the low fifties rain

116
00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,200
Speaker 1: tonight will change into a bit of snow in the

117
00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:25,719
Speaker 1: overnight hours, lows in the low thirties. Time now to

118
00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:27,240
Speaker 1: take a look at some of the other stories making

119
00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,720
Speaker 1: news in New York and around the world with Bloomberg's

120
00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,359
Speaker 1: John Tucker. Good Morning John, and Good morning Nathan. Another

121
00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,560
Speaker 1: warning about e bikes in their batteries. New York City

122
00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,880
Speaker 1: Fire Marshall blames a burning lithium ion battery and a

123
00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:41,760
Speaker 1: scooter for a five alarm fire that tour through a

124
00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:45,520
Speaker 1: commercial building in the Bronx on Sunday. For firefighters, one

125
00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:49,120
Speaker 1: person were injured. Eric Adams, as the mayor, When you

126
00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:54,839
Speaker 1: saw how fast this fire started and spread, it's just

127
00:06:55,120 --> 00:07:00,000
Speaker 1: really give you a point of poise. The fire department

128
00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,400
Speaker 1: arrived at the scene within four minutes, but the flames

129
00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:05,760
Speaker 1: were so intense the structure was destroyed. At a hallowed

130
00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:08,599
Speaker 1: site for the nineteen sixties civil rights movement ahead of

131
00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:12,320
Speaker 1: a planed twenty twenty four reelection bid. President Biden tried

132
00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:16,080
Speaker 1: to solidify support among black voters as a saying, oh,

133
00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:20,600
Speaker 1: silentist complicity, and I promise you my administration will not

134
00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:25,640
Speaker 1: remain silent. I promise you. Biden spoke in Selma, Alabama,

135
00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:29,000
Speaker 1: marking the fifty eighth anniversary of Bloody Sunday, when state

136
00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,920
Speaker 1: troopers attacked voting rights demonstrators. He listened to accomplishments in

137
00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:36,400
Speaker 1: the White House, including appointing the first black woman Supreme

138
00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:40,360
Speaker 1: Court justice. At the Conservative Political Action Conference held in

139
00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,960
Speaker 1: the DC suburbs over the weekend, former President Donald Trump

140
00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:47,720
Speaker 1: was asked if he'd continue his presidential ambitions if he

141
00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:51,800
Speaker 1: were indicted. Absolutely. I wouldn't even think about leaving. Another

142
00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:53,720
Speaker 1: news is a small plane trying to return to a

143
00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:56,760
Speaker 1: suburban Long Island airport after the pilot reported smoke in

144
00:07:56,840 --> 00:08:01,080
Speaker 1: the cockpit crashed on Sunday, getting one person and critically

145
00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:04,560
Speaker 1: injuring the two others on board. No injuries reported on

146
00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:08,000
Speaker 1: the ground. The Piper aircraft crashed shortly after three pm

147
00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:12,240
Speaker 1: while returning to attempt and emergency landing at Republic Airport

148
00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:16,320
Speaker 1: in Farmingdale, and authorities in Ohio say there's no indication

149
00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,120
Speaker 1: of any risk to public health from the derailment of

150
00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,680
Speaker 1: a Norfolk Southern cargo train between Dayton and Columbus, the

151
00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:25,360
Speaker 1: second derailment of the company train of the state in

152
00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,800
Speaker 1: a month. Twenty eight of the train's two hundred and

153
00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:32,920
Speaker 1: twelve cars, including four empty tankers, derailed Saturday afternoon in

154
00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,840
Speaker 1: Springfield Township Global News twenty four hours a day, powered

155
00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,520
Speaker 1: by more than twenty seven hundred journalist and an analyst

156
00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,560
Speaker 1: in over one hundred twenty countries. I'm John Tucker, and

157
00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:50,559
Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thank you, John, time of the

158
00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:53,200
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Trice stayed Outy.

159
00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,000
Speaker 1: Good morning, John stash hour, All right, thanks Nathan. On

160
00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,000
Speaker 1: a weekend for the nixt THEO win Friday in Miami

161
00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:02,160
Speaker 1: with the Julius Randall Heroics. They went to Boston Celtics

162
00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,560
Speaker 1: out to avenge their lost last Monday at the Garden.

163
00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:06,880
Speaker 1: They also blew a twenty eight point lead Friday and

164
00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,719
Speaker 1: lost to the Nets. Celtics seemed in good shape, led

165
00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,440
Speaker 1: by fourteen midway to the third quarter, but by the

166
00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:14,360
Speaker 1: time they went to the fourth the Knicks had the lead.

167
00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:16,640
Speaker 1: They actually went up by eleven and the fourth the

168
00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,040
Speaker 1: game went to double overtime. Him in the back court,

169
00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:22,000
Speaker 1: five seconds in the front court, four seconds triving rive

170
00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,679
Speaker 1: to Horford quarter three short, one second ago. That's it.

171
00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:30,280
Speaker 1: The Knicks win their ninth straight game till they back

172
00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,800
Speaker 1: here in the third quarter. Here in the fourth quarter,

173
00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 1: going a double overtime, and they winted in Boston, ESPA,

174
00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:40,600
Speaker 1: New York one thirty one, one twenty nine. They won

175
00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:44,200
Speaker 1: without Jalen Brunson to a foot injury, so Emmanuel quickly started.

176
00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:47,439
Speaker 1: Played fifty five minutes. He scored thirty eight points. He

177
00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:50,280
Speaker 1: had the Knicks first seven of the second o't thirty

178
00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:53,240
Speaker 1: one for Randall, twenty nine for RJ. Barrett. Tomorrow at

179
00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,319
Speaker 1: the Garden, chance for ten wins in a row. They'll

180
00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:57,760
Speaker 1: play Charlotte, who just lost to the Nets in brook

181
00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:00,280
Speaker 1: In one h two to eighty six. Michael Bridges scored

182
00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,200
Speaker 1: thirty three the two Stars. The Nets just traded met

183
00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:06,120
Speaker 1: and Phoenix beat Dallas by two. Kevin Durant thirty six

184
00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:09,120
Speaker 1: points for the Suns. Kyrie Irving had thirty for the Mats.

185
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,959
Speaker 1: Devils at Arizona blew a two goal third period lead,

186
00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,920
Speaker 1: but scored twenty three seconds into overtime to win five

187
00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,360
Speaker 1: to four. Yankees with eight runs of the ninth inning

188
00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:19,800
Speaker 1: to meet the Braves ten six three run homer in

189
00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,839
Speaker 1: the ninth by the Yanks twenty year old prize prospect

190
00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:27,000
Speaker 1: Jason Domingez. He's batting four seventeen this spring. Mets got

191
00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,560
Speaker 1: home runs from Francisco Lindor and Peter Alonzo beat the

192
00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:36,760
Speaker 1: Cardinals seven to one. John Stash Bloomberg Sport live from

193
00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:40,079
Speaker 1: coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston

194
00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:44,160
Speaker 1: to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Sirius XM, the Bloomberg

195
00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:48,199
Speaker 1: Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

196
00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:51,480
Speaker 1: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. We are getting the trading

197
00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,200
Speaker 1: weeks started with sucks in a bit of a holding pattern.

198
00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:57,680
Speaker 1: A more modest growth target from China seems to be

199
00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,800
Speaker 1: dampening sentiment after a rally to end last week. Let's

200
00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:02,760
Speaker 1: bring in Laurie Calvacina help us get set for the

201
00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,800
Speaker 1: trading week ahead, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC

202
00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:09,080
Speaker 1: Capital Markets. Laurie, it's great to speak with you as always.

203
00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,080
Speaker 1: Do you see any read through to the US market

204
00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:14,000
Speaker 1: from China coming out with this five percent target, which

205
00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,680
Speaker 1: was a little bit less than what economists were expecting. Well,

206
00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:19,559
Speaker 1: thanks for having me, ye as always, and I think

207
00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:22,400
Speaker 1: it very much to me, just sort of keeps with

208
00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:26,040
Speaker 1: the same tone that we've been experiencing lately, which is that,

209
00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,440
Speaker 1: you know, maybe we need to soften our expectations a

210
00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:30,920
Speaker 1: little bit, but this should definitely you know, I think

211
00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,000
Speaker 1: it should be looked at as you know, the pace

212
00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:37,040
Speaker 1: to recovery, or the path to recovery rather is intact

213
00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,080
Speaker 1: at this point in time. So that's really how I

214
00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,520
Speaker 1: take it this morning. I also think that investors have

215
00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:45,439
Speaker 1: been looking for reasons to be excited about non US markets,

216
00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,600
Speaker 1: so it feels like this kindles the fires for that

217
00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,400
Speaker 1: theme a little bit as well. So are you dampening

218
00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:54,720
Speaker 1: your expectations then for your target for the SMP five hundred?

219
00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,480
Speaker 1: I know you've got a forty one hundred target, which

220
00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:01,160
Speaker 1: isn't too far off from where we are now. You know,

221
00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:03,320
Speaker 1: we feel pretty neutral on the market in here, and

222
00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:05,720
Speaker 1: I feel like I continue to be sort of accused

223
00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:08,880
Speaker 1: of being overly bullish by the deeply varish elements out there,

224
00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:11,880
Speaker 1: but we really feel pretty even keeled from here, and

225
00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,920
Speaker 1: I would say the idea that money flows have favored

226
00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:16,959
Speaker 1: non US equities and will continue to do so for

227
00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:18,959
Speaker 1: at least a little while longer, is something we've already

228
00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,600
Speaker 1: baked into the forecast. And we've also, you know, baked

229
00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,280
Speaker 1: into the idea that bottoms look more attractive than stocks

230
00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:26,520
Speaker 1: from here. We have a couple of different models that

231
00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,120
Speaker 1: speak to that, and people are always surprised that when

232
00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,240
Speaker 1: I show them that in that environment, you don't necessarily

233
00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,319
Speaker 1: see equities going down. You just have to get used

234
00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,360
Speaker 1: to more subdued returns. I feel like it blows their

235
00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:37,599
Speaker 1: mind a little bit, but nevertheless, that is what the

236
00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,720
Speaker 1: data shows. So I think we've got you know, those

237
00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,400
Speaker 1: kinds of pressures. The idea that stocks aren't the best

238
00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:44,640
Speaker 1: game in town, we've got it already baked into the

239
00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:48,280
Speaker 1: forty one view at this point. Okay, the outflows that

240
00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:50,520
Speaker 1: we're seeing out of the US, does that present a

241
00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:54,840
Speaker 1: buying opportunity for US stocks in the short term? So

242
00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,840
Speaker 1: I think that, you know, the technicals have gotten everybody

243
00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:01,600
Speaker 1: excited recently, and you know, we still think that we're

244
00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,559
Speaker 1: in this kind of messy normalization period similar to O

245
00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:07,800
Speaker 1: two oh three similar to twenty ten, twenty eleven. So

246
00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:09,920
Speaker 1: I don't think things you're going to continue to chop around.

247
00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:11,840
Speaker 1: And I think whether or not you sort of look

248
00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:14,640
Speaker 1: at this as a particularly good buying opportunity really is

249
00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,000
Speaker 1: a function of your time horizon. I think there's still

250
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,400
Speaker 1: a lot of opportunities and things like small caps. I

251
00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:23,160
Speaker 1: think financials also look deeply compelling. They've kind of had

252
00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,600
Speaker 1: to get some of their downward revisions for twenty twenty

253
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,360
Speaker 1: three out of the way. They're well into that process

254
00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:29,600
Speaker 1: at this point. But I do think that you can

255
00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:32,280
Speaker 1: find bargains if you look in the right places. Right now,

256
00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,040
Speaker 1: we have seen a little bit of a pullback in

257
00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:39,840
Speaker 1: terms of treasury yields right now. What does that mean

258
00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,839
Speaker 1: for stocks in the short term. So to the extent

259
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:46,520
Speaker 1: that we get more pullback in ten year yields, that's

260
00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,520
Speaker 1: very good for equity valuations. And you know, we continue

261
00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:52,640
Speaker 1: to talk to our rate strategists who think that yields

262
00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:54,439
Speaker 1: are going to move a bit lower from here. If

263
00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:57,360
Speaker 1: you look at the ETFC consensus on Bloomberg, it's also

264
00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,320
Speaker 1: calling for something more subdued from here. And when we

265
00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:02,199
Speaker 1: talk to our rate strategists, I think there's going to

266
00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:04,920
Speaker 1: be just a change in the flow dynamics between now

267
00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,360
Speaker 1: and your end that could soften the yields a bit.

268
00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,040
Speaker 1: What I see in my modeling, because remember I an

269
00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:11,760
Speaker 1: equity person, is that if you pull the ten your

270
00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:13,800
Speaker 1: treasury yield down, it's going to give you the room

271
00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,160
Speaker 1: for PE multiples to expand just a little bit. And

272
00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:19,840
Speaker 1: once we get to some stability in terms of earnings forecasts,

273
00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:21,680
Speaker 1: and I think we're getting pretty close to that point,

274
00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,120
Speaker 1: it should allow investors to get a little bit more

275
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:26,720
Speaker 1: confidence to get back into the equity market, know what

276
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:30,840
Speaker 1: pether paying for stocks and really be willing to say, Okay,

277
00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:32,760
Speaker 1: I don't think pees need to come down anymore. I

278
00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:34,680
Speaker 1: think they can move up a little bit. So I

279
00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:37,840
Speaker 1: think it's really giving that stability to the valuation environment

280
00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:41,000
Speaker 1: that it matters from an equity perspectives. Although, as you know, Laurie,

281
00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,880
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of talk among market analysts about

282
00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:47,360
Speaker 1: valuations getting stretched in this market. Are you starting to

283
00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:51,520
Speaker 1: see signs of a little bit more stabilization in valuations

284
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:55,800
Speaker 1: or could there be more moves to come. I think

285
00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,400
Speaker 1: that you have to pick when you're thinking about valuations

286
00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:00,240
Speaker 1: and pees. I think you have to really be very

287
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,720
Speaker 1: specific about what year you're talking about. If I look

288
00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:04,600
Speaker 1: at the PE of the S and P five hundred

289
00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:08,200
Speaker 1: against last year's earnings or forecasts for next year's earnings,

290
00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:11,000
Speaker 1: things look pretty reasonable if I look kind of in

291
00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:12,600
Speaker 1: line with the long term average. If I look at

292
00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:15,520
Speaker 1: a PE multiple against twenty twenty three earnings on my number,

293
00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:19,120
Speaker 1: they look expensive. They don't look crazy expensive. But I

294
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,040
Speaker 1: do think investors are kind of getting to the point

295
00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,400
Speaker 1: where they're ready to look through twenty twenty three and

296
00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,000
Speaker 1: start focusing on twenty twenty four. And if you are

297
00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,360
Speaker 1: willing to go ahead and make that determination, I think

298
00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:30,160
Speaker 1: that you can feel a lot better, your sleep, a

299
00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:33,320
Speaker 1: lot better at night in terms of equity valuation. This

300
00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:36,240
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on the

301
00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,640
Speaker 1: stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

302
00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,760
Speaker 1: Look for us on your podcast feed at six am

303
00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:46,480
Speaker 1: Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you

304
00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,760
Speaker 1: get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning

305
00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,760
Speaker 1: starting at five am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven

306
00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:56,000
Speaker 1: three zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one in Washington,

307
00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:59,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg one oh six one in Boston and Bloomberg nine

308
00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:03,320
Speaker 1: sixty San Francisco. Our flagship New York station, is also

309
00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:07,720
Speaker 1: available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play

310
00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:11,200
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast on the

311
00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:15,920
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app, serious XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app,

312
00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:19,000
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm

313
00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:22,320
Speaker 1: Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the

314
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 1: news you need to start your day right here on

315
00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:26,160
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak