Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. Good morning, I'm Nathan
Speaker 1: Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're
Speaker 1: following today.
Speaker 2: Karen Willcom has been restored to stock in bond markets
Speaker 2: for now. After the hotter than estimated inflation report for March, yesterday,
Speaker 2: a gauge of global bond suffered it's worst performance since
Speaker 2: February of last year. Investors now bet the FED will
Speaker 2: cut interest rates just twice this year. Neil Dutta, partner
Speaker 2: at Renaissance Macro Research, talked about the difference between the
Speaker 2: Consumer Price Index and the feds preferred inflation gauge, the PCE.
Speaker 3: You know, there are differences of scope between the CPI
Speaker 3: data and the pc data, and the CPI data is running,
Speaker 3: you know, over a full percentage point higher than PCE.
Speaker 3: That's about twice almost three times what's normal, and so
Speaker 3: you know, in some respects, I do think the market
Speaker 3: might be overstating how important CPI is for the FED
Speaker 3: reaction function, but you know, it's a bad number.
Speaker 2: Renaissance Macro Research partner Neil Dutta now expects the FED
Speaker 2: to cut rates twice this year, with the first move in.
Speaker 1: July, Well Nathan, Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says cutting
Speaker 1: rates would be a mistake. In fact, Summer says a
Speaker 1: rate hike may be necessary.
Speaker 4: You have to take seriously the possibility that the next
Speaker 4: rate move will be upwards rather than downwards, and anything
Speaker 4: could happen. Markets could crash, the indicators could turn down.
Speaker 4: But on current facts, a rate cut in June, it
Speaker 4: seems to me would be a dangerous and egregious error.
Speaker 1: Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers estimates the chance of a
Speaker 1: rate hike in the fifteen to twenty five percent range.
Speaker 1: Here the full conversation on the Bloomberg Wall Street Week
Speaker 1: podcast downloaded on Apples, Spotify, or anywhere else you get
Speaker 1: your podcasts.
Speaker 5: Karen.
Speaker 2: Investors now turn their attention to another key inflation reading,
Speaker 2: the March Producer Price Index. Let's get a preview from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
Speaker 6: The Producer Price Index is forecast to come in cooler
Speaker 6: than yesterday's Consumer price index, and that may matter more
Speaker 6: to the Fed than the CPI. The reason the Fed's
Speaker 6: target is based on a third inflation measure, the Personal
Speaker 6: Consumption Expenditures Index or PCE. It tends to run lower
Speaker 6: than CPI. Some sectors in the PPI feed directly into PCE.
Speaker 6: For example, while CPI measures what consumers pay for medical care,
Speaker 6: PPI and PCE measure what insurance companies pay. So today's
Speaker 6: numbers matter for analysts and central bankers as they try
Speaker 6: to understand the direction of inflation. A strong PPI would
Speaker 6: reinforce pessimism about rate cuts a week one would revive hope.
Speaker 6: Michael McKee Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: Right, Mike, thanks well. Interest rates are very much in
Speaker 1: focus overseas. Later this morning, the European Central Bank makes
Speaker 1: a policy decision, and we go to London and get
Speaker 1: a preview of the Bloomberg's You and Pots You in
Speaker 1: Good Morning.
Speaker 7: Karen and Nathan boringcoss Across the euro Area are set
Speaker 7: to be held at a record high today of four percent,
Speaker 7: but investors are expecting the ECB to further lay the
Speaker 7: ground for cuts to get underway in June. Euro Area
Speaker 7: inflation is within sights of the two percent target, but
Speaker 7: President Christine the Guard has indicated they'll need more confidence
Speaker 7: in the data, particularly wage growth, by the middle of
Speaker 7: the year. That decision comes at seven fifteen Eastern time
Speaker 7: in London. Immune pots beenber radio.
Speaker 2: Okay ewan, thank you. Oil is on the rise, and
Speaker 2: speculation hostilities may be escalating in the Middle East. Source
Speaker 2: to say the US and its allies think an Iranian
Speaker 2: strike on Israel is imminent. We get more from Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Israel Bureau chief Ethan Bronner.
Speaker 8: This is in retaliation for an attack that is presumed
Speaker 8: to have been done by Israel about ten days ago
Speaker 8: in Damascus on a diplomatic compound in which seven people
Speaker 8: were killed.
Speaker 9: The key point there is that the two of.
Speaker 8: The people were Revolutionary Guard command as to say, Iranian
Speaker 8: commanders of militias in Lebanon in Syria.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Ethan Bronner says Israeli officials have publicly threatened Iran
Speaker 2: that if it hits Israeli soil, Israel will hit Iranian soil.
Speaker 1: Well back here in the US, Nathan, the Biden administration
Speaker 1: is cracking down on unlicensed gun dealers, and we get
Speaker 1: the very latest at Bloomberg's John Tucker, John, Good Morning.
Speaker 5: And Karen.
Speaker 9: The Biden administration is issuing the rule designed to close
Speaker 9: a gap that allows gun buyers to avoid background checks.
Speaker 9: It targets the so called gun show loophole by expanding
Speaker 9: the definition of who must obtain a license to engage
Speaker 9: in firearm sales. The regulation specifically singles out sellers online
Speaker 9: and at gun shows, where the background checks are often
Speaker 9: not conducted. According to a White House official, more than
Speaker 9: twenty thousand individuals engaged in unlicensed dealings could be affected
Speaker 9: by the changes. The President has seized on the issue
Speaker 9: of gun violence to contrast himself with former President Trump
Speaker 9: and Republicans. In a State of the Union address in March,
Speaker 9: mister Biden sattled his administration's efforts to address gun crime,
Speaker 9: including establishing the first ever Office of Gun Violence Prevention.
Speaker 9: John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: All Right, John, Thanks at a disclaimer, Michael Bloomberg, founder
Speaker 1: and majority owner of Bloomberg Radio parent Bloomberg Lp, donates
Speaker 1: to groups at support gun control.
Speaker 5: All Right, Karen.
Speaker 2: In Legal News this morning, Donald Trump has lost his
Speaker 2: third try in a week to delay his Manhattan hush
Speaker 2: money trial. Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has the story.
Speaker 10: The week legally has had his attorneys trying to delay
Speaker 10: the trial on charges that he faked business records to
Speaker 10: cover up a sex scandal. The so called hush money trial.
Speaker 10: His attorneys say they want a delay based on several
Speaker 10: rulings that have been made, including waiting until after the
Speaker 10: final ruling comes down on immunity. How this latest ruling
Speaker 10: could be heard by a panel of five appellate court
Speaker 10: justices going forward, but it would be nearly impossible for
Speaker 10: the court to hear and rule before the trial's beginning.
Speaker 10: Jury selection is scheduled from Monday the fifteenth at Baxter bloom.
Speaker 1: Radio, all right ed, thanks well. Staying in Manhattan. There
Speaker 1: is not as much of a hush in New York
Speaker 1: City office buildings. The return to work rate is now
Speaker 1: close to eighty percent of where it was before the pandemic.
Speaker 1: We get more from Bloomberg's Doug Prisner.
Speaker 11: The data come from placer Ai. They show how Wall
Speaker 11: Street firms including Goldman, Sachs and JP Morgan helped drive
Speaker 11: New York City's return to office rate. A similar rebound
Speaker 11: was also seen in Miami, with a rate of seventy
Speaker 11: eight percent last year. The return to office rates for
Speaker 11: these two cities were the highest among seven major US markets.
Speaker 11: They were also above the national average of about sixty
Speaker 11: three percent. San Francisco saw the greatest growth in office
Speaker 11: visitations in twenty twenty three. However, it still lagged behind
Speaker 11: other major cities with an RT rate of forty five
Speaker 11: percent in New York. I'm Doug Prisner, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: Okay, Doug, thanks for watching shares of Alpine Immune Sciences
Speaker 2: on some deal news this morning. They're up thirty six
Speaker 2: percent in early trading. The kidney drug developers being bought
Speaker 2: by Tech Pharmaceuticals for four point nine billion dollars in cash.
Speaker 1: And it is time now for a look at some
Speaker 1: of the other stories making news in New York and
Speaker 1: around the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's and
Speaker 1: Michael Barr. Michael, good Morning, Good morning, Karen.
Speaker 12: House.
Speaker 5: Republicans have failed to advance a bill that would renew
Speaker 5: the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act FISA, gives law enforcement the
Speaker 5: authority to monitor suspicious interactions with foreign adversaries. After former
Speaker 5: President Trump posted kill FAISA. Nineteen Republicans voted against the
Speaker 5: procedural vote, despite House Speaker Mike Johnson urging them to
Speaker 5: approve it. Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw, Texas says he believes
Speaker 5: the laws renewal is necessary for the US to monitor
Speaker 5: bad actors all over the world.
Speaker 2: You lose our collection on our adversaries. That's one of
Speaker 2: the most seriously bad things that I can think of happening.
Speaker 2: I've never been worried like I'm worried now.
Speaker 5: However, critics on both sides of the aisle saying that
Speaker 5: Americans often get surveiled improperly because of it. The fallout
Speaker 5: continues in the fight over a newly revived eighteen sixty
Speaker 5: four Arizona law criminalizing abortion throughout pregnancy unless a woman's
Speaker 5: life is at risk. The Arizona Legislature devolved into jeering
Speaker 5: yesterday as Republican lawmakers shut down discussion on a proposed
Speaker 5: repeal of the law. The Arizona Supreme Court cleared the
Speaker 5: way this week for enforcing the pre statehood abortion ban
Speaker 5: throughout pregnancy, without exceptions for rape or incest. Democratic State
Speaker 5: Senator Anna Hernandez called the GOP bloc politically foolish.
Speaker 13: It's not about convincing somebody to have an abortion or not.
Speaker 14: That is their choice.
Speaker 10: This is about do we trust the people to make
Speaker 10: the best decision for themselves, And we're saying yes, we do.
Speaker 5: A proposed ballot initiative may ask voters in November whether
Speaker 5: to place abortion protections into the state constitution. New York City,
Speaker 5: fighting back against people who steal packages delivered to residents,
Speaker 5: city officials have now introduced new public delivery lockers. Each
Speaker 5: locker can hold twenty five packages at one time. New
Speaker 5: York Mayor Eric Adams New.
Speaker 14: Yorkers will be able to receive and send packages using
Speaker 14: secure lockers on public sidewalks. The program is available to
Speaker 14: all New Yorkers twenty four to seven and it is
Speaker 14: the favorite four letter road of New Yorkers free.
Speaker 5: Currently, seven lockers are installed around the city, including in
Speaker 5: Brooklyn and Hell's Kitchen. Global News twenty four hours a
Speaker 5: day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News. Now,
Speaker 5: I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg Karen.
Speaker 1: All right, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sports Update with John stash Hour. John, good morning,
Speaker 1: Good morning, Karen.
Speaker 15: There hasn't been a Master's without a drop of rain
Speaker 15: since twenty eighteen, and ranged in the forecast for this
Speaker 15: morning sounds like togat at least some of the opening
Speaker 15: round in It is expected to be clear Skys the
Speaker 15: rest of the weekend. The eighty eighth Masters, John Rahm,
Speaker 15: the defending jam Scottie Sheffer won two years ago. Here's
Speaker 15: the world number one on playing.
Speaker 13: That's the national I mean to me, it's just a
Speaker 13: special place. It's kind of the mecca for us growing
Speaker 13: up being you know, grown up here in the States
Speaker 13: and you know, being Americans. I think this is the
Speaker 13: tournament that we all look for, and to be here
Speaker 13: on property every year is extremely special. And I mean
Speaker 13: it seems like it all stands out. Everything has done
Speaker 13: so well here.
Speaker 15: Yesterday's par three won by Ricky Fowler, no one has
Speaker 15: ever won it, and then won the green jacket. They
Speaker 15: were five holes and won in the event, and including
Speaker 15: one by Gary Woodland, who's playing the Masters after undergoing
Speaker 15: brain surgery. Last fall at the Stadium Marlin's with the Yankees,
Speaker 15: five's too, Jake Berger a three run homer off Marcus Stroman,
Speaker 15: John Carlos Stanton homer for the Yanks. Mets and Braves
Speaker 15: reigned out in Atlanta. The Red Sox had a five
Speaker 15: to nothing lead in the sixth inning, lost to the
Speaker 15: Orioles seven to five. Twenty year old Jackson Holiday went
Speaker 15: over four Big League debut for Baltimore. He's the son
Speaker 15: of Matt Holliday. He's considered MLB's top prospect. Giants beat
Speaker 15: the National seven to one. Cleveland top the White Sox.
Speaker 15: The Guardians have brothers in their lineup, and Bow and
Speaker 15: Josh Naylor both homeward in the fourth inning. Big NBA
Speaker 15: game for first place in the West. Denver beat Minnesota.
Speaker 15: Nikolaoa could scored forty one. The netsbeat Toronto one of
Speaker 15: six to one oh two. The next play tonight in Boston.
Speaker 15: Rangers trying to finish first overall. They host Philadelphia, the Islanders,
Speaker 15: seeking a playoff for their home for Montreal. The WNBA
Speaker 15: TV schedule is out. Thirty six of Indiana's forty games
Speaker 15: will be on National TV. The Fever Expecutive Draft Caitlin
Speaker 15: Clark on Monday, John Stashawer Blueberg Sports, Karen Nathan.
Speaker 1: All Right, John Stashauer, thank you. SMP futures down to
Speaker 1: tenth seven percent, so our down futures Now's day futures
Speaker 1: down about the same. In the ten year treasury yield
Speaker 1: is that four point five six percent.
Speaker 5: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide, on Sirius XM and.
Speaker 10: Around the world on Bloomberg dot com and the Bloomberg
Speaker 10: Business app.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. Well,
Speaker 2: the third month was definitely not the charm on the
Speaker 2: road to disinflation. The March Consumer Price Index did come
Speaker 2: in hotter than expected, once again, keviny investors pushing back
Speaker 2: bets on rate cut timing from the Federal Reserve. For more,
Speaker 2: we're joined by City US economist Veronica Clark. Veronica, good morning,
Speaker 2: Thanks so much.
Speaker 12: For being with us.
Speaker 16: Good morning, Yeah, thank you for having me.
Speaker 2: So is the road to disinflation still bumpy or is
Speaker 2: this third in a row CPI hotness the new trend?
Speaker 16: Yeah, I mean I think most food officials will probably
Speaker 16: still characterize this as bumpy. Of course, it will be
Speaker 16: core PC inflation that matters most for the Fed, and
Speaker 16: we'll see what that comes out today once we get
Speaker 16: details of PPI data. But I think, you know, maybe
Speaker 16: the hawks are getting a bit more uncomfortable and it
Speaker 16: does kind of get harder to come to a consensus
Speaker 16: to cut maybe as soon as June. But there are
Speaker 16: a lot of uncertainties, of course, with all the other
Speaker 16: data that we're going to get before June.
Speaker 2: Also, do you guys over at City count yourselves as Hawks,
Speaker 2: So are you getting more uncomfortable yourselves?
Speaker 16: No, not necessarily. We're We're probably one of the more
Speaker 16: dubvish forecasts out there right now. We think the Fed
Speaker 16: is still cutting in June and then cutting every meeting
Speaker 16: after June. So that is one hundred and twenty five
Speaker 16: basis points of cuts this year. That's well more than
Speaker 16: what's priced right now. But I think for us, you know,
Speaker 16: we are trying to be more forward looking. We are
Speaker 16: trying to assess the other types of data that we
Speaker 16: might see over the coming months. You know, labor market
Speaker 16: data that has been very strong, but some of the
Speaker 16: details look a bit precarious, and I think the said
Speaker 16: would be very dubvish if we know we're getting some
Speaker 16: weaker labor market data.
Speaker 2: Yeah, first cut in June is looking more and more
Speaker 2: like a bold call given the data that we have
Speaker 2: seen so far. In some of the commentary that we're
Speaker 2: hearing from the likes of Larry Summers, the former Treasury
Speaker 2: secretary who was on Bloomberg yesterday, saying, maybe we they
Speaker 2: hold out the possibility that the next move from the
Speaker 2: Fed is a hike. I mean, how do you push
Speaker 2: back against that?
Speaker 16: Yeah, I mean I think that is probably pretty unlikely.
Speaker 16: I think at least Fed officials will see at least
Speaker 16: that the current level of rates is restrictive. And we've
Speaker 16: heard that most FED officials, certainly from fair Powell. And
Speaker 16: so if you know, inflation is coming in a bit
Speaker 16: hotter than comfortable and they're comfortable with they're not, you know,
Speaker 16: getting that further confidence that they want to see. It's
Speaker 16: not necessarily that we're talking about hikes again. They would
Speaker 16: probably just lead rights elevated for a bit longer. We're
Speaker 16: just talking about pushing out those cuts.
Speaker 2: What is it that's keeping these price pressures so sticky?
Speaker 2: What are you seeing in the data that has inflation
Speaker 2: where it is and has you still thinking that there
Speaker 2: is still room for the Fed to make a cut.
Speaker 16: Yeah, I mean, we honestly do still see a lot
Speaker 16: of stickiness and services inflation. So we've seen that for
Speaker 16: a while in shelter inflation, which which should slowing at
Speaker 16: some point and as we're getting into two later this year,
Speaker 16: but a lot of the strength and yesterday's CPI data
Speaker 16: with non shelter services. Actually about half of that strength
Speaker 16: and non shelter services had to do with auto insurance,
Speaker 16: which interestingly does not go into the Fed's preferred PC
Speaker 16: inflation measure. But even in PC inflation, I think we're
Speaker 16: we're still seeing a lot of stickiness to services inflation
Speaker 16: and that has to do with, you know, a tight
Speaker 16: labor market. We're still running wages that are around four
Speaker 16: to five percent or so. That's a fit stronger than
Speaker 16: you want to see to be consistent with two percent inflation.
Speaker 16: So there is still some loosening to go. But I
Speaker 16: think we do see the signs in the labor market,
Speaker 16: details in demand for workers hiring that has really slowed down.
Speaker 16: That leads us to think we are going into a
Speaker 16: much looser label market.
Speaker 2: So we only have about thirty seconds left here, Veronica,
Speaker 2: what are you expecting when it comes to producer prices
Speaker 2: out this morning and whether that could change the narrative
Speaker 2: that we're in this market.
Speaker 16: Yeah, this one one could be interesting. There's a couple
Speaker 16: things to watch, you know, we're looking at the transportation
Speaker 16: and the good kind of components of PPI data that
Speaker 16: could be a bit stronger. We might see a stronger
Speaker 16: headline PPI increase. But most importantly today, we're watching some
Speaker 16: very specific components that go into our mapping of core
Speaker 16: PCE inflation for March, and of course that's what the
Speaker 16: said we'll care most about. We are expecting to see
Speaker 16: some strength in components like medical services, certain financial services,
Speaker 16: and that could mean that forecasters are expecting, you know,
Speaker 16: a bit stronger core PCE even than we had in February.
Speaker 16: We had a twenty six basis point increase in February.
Speaker 16: We're tracking at around thirty basis points right now. That
Speaker 16: could mean that we're just pushing these cuts further out
Speaker 16: market continues to price outcuts. Yeah, but that might be
Speaker 16: a little bit tree mature.
Speaker 12: This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on
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