Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by play MGM.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. If you listen to our
Speaker 1: two shows last week, you now should feel pretty confident
Speaker 1: about the sports betting landscape and some of the best
Speaker 1: over unders for the NFC. Well, today we're going to
Speaker 1: tie a little bow on the season long over unders
Speaker 1: by breaking down the AFC. And with me to do
Speaker 1: that is Jason Logan, the senior managing editor for Covers.
Speaker 1: He and everyone there provides outstanding information across the sports
Speaker 1: betting industry, and you can find him on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Covers j LO. Jason, thanks so much for joining me today.
Speaker 1: What's going on?
Speaker 2: Not too much. I got some in laws in town,
Speaker 2: so my host is full of children run around and
Speaker 2: screaming and trying to get some work done around that,
Speaker 2: so that's awesome.
Speaker 1: I'm hoping that this is going to be the I'm
Speaker 1: hoping this is going to be the first podcast that
Speaker 1: I do where my kids don't somehow inter rup me
Speaker 1: because they basically they have like a sixth sense or
Speaker 1: something about whenever I'm podcasting and they immediately breaking them office.
Speaker 2: Absolutely I was before we went on here, I was
Speaker 2: doing television with a t with the station in San
Speaker 2: Diego and my son just comes marching down the stairs
Speaker 2: with NERF gun and like laser scope eye things on. Yeah.
Speaker 2: I was like, you gotta go better.
Speaker 1: Now, that's some good TV. I'd watch that. Actually, if
Speaker 1: that I was just waiting.
Speaker 2: I was just waiting to catch a NERF gun into
Speaker 2: the ear.
Speaker 1: Absolutely. Well, Look, before we get started, I'm sure most
Speaker 1: people listening probably have the same question I do, which
Speaker 1: is how many angry dms have you gotten from Jennifer
Speaker 1: Lopez about your use of j LO and your Twitter handle,
Speaker 1: Because I mean it's got to be like five or
Speaker 1: six at this point, right.
Speaker 2: No, No, not much from him. A lot from Alex Rodriguez. Yeah,
Speaker 2: a lot from Alex Rodriguez, but not not not any
Speaker 2: from from the actual.
Speaker 1: All right, well that's good to know, I guess. I
Speaker 1: mean it's good for you because Frank O'harris he emails
Speaker 1: me like every day pissed off about the my Twitter handles.
Speaker 1: So look, you're a big name in the sports betting industry.
Speaker 1: But before we get into the AFC over unders. I
Speaker 1: was hoping you can kind of tell everybody a little
Speaker 1: bit about yourself, how you got into focusing on sports,
Speaker 1: beending what exactly you do over it covers your eight
Speaker 1: favorite foods, whatever you got.
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm a tacos guy, so all right, any type
Speaker 2: of taco I'm in, softer, hard, doesn't matter.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 2: I started with covers back in two thousand and five,
Speaker 2: actually right before that Eagles Patriot super Bowl, So I
Speaker 2: was somewhat thrown into the fire. I started as what
Speaker 2: was called a content editor, so we did shift work,
Speaker 2: so we worked like a twelve hour day, nine in
Speaker 2: the morning till nine at night, and then you'd flip
Speaker 2: it and work nine at nights and nine in the morning.
Speaker 2: We had a twenty four hour crew at that time.
Speaker 2: And then from there I went on and became a
Speaker 2: full time writer covered college basketball and baseball in the summer,
Speaker 2: and then went on to be an associate editor and
Speaker 2: then eventually took over to the department. So I mean,
Speaker 2: in a nutshell, I kind of manage all things content
Speaker 2: from the creative side. It could be articles, it could
Speaker 2: be our video products and podcasts, our social output as
Speaker 2: well too, So I kind of have my fingers in
Speaker 2: a lot of those pies as well. As you know.
Speaker 2: I worked with our product teams and our development teams,
Speaker 2: sales and marketing teams, so lots of meetings every day.
Speaker 2: So when I do, when I do get to sit
Speaker 2: down and bang out some content around sports betting, it's
Speaker 2: therapeutic for me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, your site is great. I've been. I've been checking
Speaker 1: it out basically all week. They've got a ton of
Speaker 1: stuff over there, basically sports betting from every angle, so
Speaker 1: it's really great to check out. I don't want to,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to dig too. Do you've
Speaker 1: been to ask you about your age or anything? But
Speaker 1: is this something that legitimately like did you start when
Speaker 1: you were a young guy, did you have a whole
Speaker 1: other profession or anything like that.
Speaker 2: Nope, No, I started with covers. I was probably I
Speaker 2: was a year removed from school thinking of going back
Speaker 2: to school. But in terms of sports betting, I mean
Speaker 2: I I mean Canada. I'm located in Canada and we
Speaker 2: have a lottery system sports betting. It's not fantastic. It's
Speaker 2: a lot of parlays and skewed odds that returns aren't
Speaker 2: what they should be. But you know, eighteen eighteen year old,
Speaker 2: you don't know the ins and outs and that. But
Speaker 2: I've been a lot of basketball and a lot of
Speaker 2: baseball at that time, and then I got the job
Speaker 2: with Covers and then just kind of learned the ins
Speaker 2: and outs of sports betting and you know, what is
Speaker 2: important what isn't important in terms of sports betting knowledge
Speaker 2: versus sports knowledge, versus fantasy knowledge, because there's all other
Speaker 2: it's a it's a different scope in which you need
Speaker 2: to view sports through. You know, people say they're a
Speaker 2: big sports fan until they kind of step into the
Speaker 2: sports betting world and there's so many angles that you
Speaker 2: just don't think of. And even to this day, I
Speaker 2: mean I've been with Covers for almost fourteen years here
Speaker 2: and still learning things every day every day. So yeah,
Speaker 2: that's that's kind of my kind of progression through sports bet.
Speaker 1: It's a great point that you bring up, because you know,
Speaker 1: I talked about a little bit last week with Dustin Goucher,
Speaker 1: who's a journalist who covers sort of the evolving sports
Speaker 1: betting landscape in the United States. Yeah, no, I know,
Speaker 1: I know, Dustin, Yeah, Dustin, Dustin's great, but you know,
Speaker 1: the big thing is that, you know, people in the
Speaker 1: United States, it's just suddenly this whirlwind, right, you get
Speaker 1: a Supreme Court decision that overturns sort of a law
Speaker 1: that says no, they can legalize sports betting, and now
Speaker 1: nobody really knows sort of what to do. Everybody just
Speaker 1: kind of wants to run out and say, great, I
Speaker 1: can bet to the extent their state has legalized it.
Speaker 1: And people don't really fully understand kind of what goes
Speaker 1: into it. And so, you know, that's kind of what
Speaker 1: we want to do today and here at this podcast
Speaker 1: is to kind of give people a little more guidance
Speaker 1: as to how to do that. So here's what we're
Speaker 1: going to do today. We're going to go division by
Speaker 1: division in the AFC and talk about the over unders
Speaker 1: for every team in each division. We'll start with the East,
Speaker 1: then the North, the South, and then the West. And
Speaker 1: we're going to be using the consensus over unders from
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com, which is basically the aggregate of available
Speaker 1: odds in the market, and we'll talk about any that
Speaker 1: we like or we don't like.
Speaker 2: Has that sound yeah, that sounds great?
Speaker 1: All right, good, But before we get into it, you
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Speaker 1: risk free wager. All right, let's start with the East here,
Speaker 1: and I'm going to just list the over unders for
Speaker 1: each team and then you can basically tell me which one,
Speaker 1: if any, stand out to you as a good bet.
Speaker 1: The Bills are over under at six and a half wins,
Speaker 1: the Dolphins are at five, the Patriots are at eleven,
Speaker 1: and the Jets are at seven and a half. So
Speaker 1: do any of them stand out to you as particularly
Speaker 1: good value?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I've got two season win total kind of
Speaker 2: picks that this. I've already previewed the AFC East and
Speaker 2: one of my articles here you can find that on covers.
Speaker 2: And surprisingly enough, the best over win total bet that
Speaker 2: I thought that was there in the AFC East was
Speaker 2: the Miami Dolphins. I know, clutch the Pearls clutch the
Speaker 2: Pearls four and a half four is where I'm seeing
Speaker 2: some of these ones. The AFCAS really isn't that tough
Speaker 2: a division, and you have the Patriots and then you
Speaker 2: have everyone else. And Miami really did overachieve last year.
Speaker 2: You know, the seven wins. They ranked as the luckiest
Speaker 2: team if you saw them play. They scored a lot
Speaker 2: of big plays on special teams, on defense, on offense,
Speaker 2: just a lot of kind of fluky plays. They don't
Speaker 2: get the same soft schedule that they had last year,
Speaker 2: but because they played this weaker division, I could see
Speaker 2: them stealing at least two or three divisional wins here,
Speaker 2: picking up a couple victories, and non conference play, they
Speaker 2: play the Giants, they host the Redskins. Those are two
Speaker 2: weaker teams, and then they have this late season game
Speaker 2: against Cincinnati a week sixteen. That's going to be the
Speaker 2: all or nothing game right there. I think that's what
Speaker 2: it's going to come down to. It's more a play
Speaker 2: against the rest of the AFC East than a play
Speaker 2: on the Dolphins. And I'm just asking them to be terrible,
Speaker 2: not horrific, just terrible.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I think the big point is at five,
Speaker 1: which is at the consensus over under. That's the lowest
Speaker 1: over under that's available in the game right now, at
Speaker 1: least on the consensus over unders. Yeah, a couple of us.
Speaker 2: I've seen the Dolphins between four four and a half five.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so yeah, And look for me, I personally, I
Speaker 1: had no feel for that bet because there's just so
Speaker 1: many questions.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: You look at last year and that's fine, but obviously
Speaker 1: Adam Gase was the head coach. You've got new quarterbacks
Speaker 1: with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen. We don't really know
Speaker 1: what Brian Floor is going to be as a head coach, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's already driving us nuts with the whole
Speaker 1: Klin Blage and Kenyan Drake, although Drake of course got
Speaker 1: injured and is in a walking boot right now. And
Speaker 1: the defense is largely the same which was kind of mediocre,
Speaker 1: and now they're probably going to switch to a different system.
Speaker 1: So for me, I agree that if I was forced
Speaker 1: to choose one, I would go over, But I had
Speaker 1: just little feel for it because I feel like there's
Speaker 1: just a lot of question marks surrounding what the team's
Speaker 1: going to look like this year.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, And the Dolphins always have those games too,
Speaker 2: where they surprise you all of a sudden, they come
Speaker 2: out of nowhere. They've they've played the Patriots very at.
Speaker 1: Home at home. The Patriots always seemed to struggle in Miami.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so, I mean if they can, all they
Speaker 2: need to do is just steal a couple extra games
Speaker 2: and they'll have people sweating. I think that game against
Speaker 2: Cincinnati a week sixteen is going to be the be
Speaker 2: the tiebreaker for that one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly, Cincinnati is a team that you look at
Speaker 1: on the schedule and you get pretty excited about if
Speaker 1: you're an imposing team. For me, the game that stuck
Speaker 1: out with the I'm sorry, the team at the that
Speaker 1: stuck out for me where the Bills at six and
Speaker 1: a half, and I like the over here. Now. It's
Speaker 1: not anything where I think they're going to win ten
Speaker 1: games or anything like that, but they strike me as
Speaker 1: much more of a five hundred team. There's still a
Speaker 1: lot of question marks, you know, around them. They don't
Speaker 1: have a great pass rush. It's really Jerry Hughes and
Speaker 1: not much else. There are major accurate accuracy concerns with
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, and you know he's not going to be
Speaker 1: I don't think the type of Lamar Jackson quarterback because
Speaker 1: although he had a ton of rushing yards, they were
Speaker 1: mostly scrambles last year. You know, it's not as if
Speaker 1: they're going to do that system that they did and
Speaker 1: that they're going to do in Baltimore. But the thing
Speaker 1: for me is that they've they've just made a few
Speaker 1: changes that I really like. They've added a lot to
Speaker 1: their offensive line. It's not going to be an elite unit,
Speaker 1: but I think it's going to be pretty pretty improved.
Speaker 1: The run games should do enough. They've you know, nothing's
Speaker 1: outstanding there, but they've got a lot of depth with
Speaker 1: Leashau McCoy and Frank Gore and Devin Singletary and tj
Speaker 1: Yeldin if he makes the team. They added John Brown,
Speaker 1: so now they have another deep threat and although Josh
Speaker 1: Allen is not accurate whatsoever, he can throw the deep
Speaker 1: ball with pretty much the best of them. And with
Speaker 1: their defense. Look, they don't have a great pass rush,
Speaker 1: but they're solid at linebacker. They've got Tredavius White. So
Speaker 1: for me, you mentioned the schedule. They won six games
Speaker 1: last year and they open at the Jets, at the Giants,
Speaker 1: and home against the Bengals. They could easily be three
Speaker 1: and oh after the first three games. They've got the
Speaker 1: two games against Miami, They've got a home game against
Speaker 1: Washington and late in the season. Buffalo is a really
Speaker 1: tough place to play. You know that that crowd is crazy,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be freezing, it's gonna be hostile. I think
Speaker 1: they're more like an eight win team. So for me,
Speaker 1: the over at six and a half is really the
Speaker 1: one bet that set out to me is good value.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say you're wrong. I'm gonna say you're wrong
Speaker 2: that well. I'm going with the Bills. I'm going with
Speaker 2: the Bills under I have fans and the Bills mafia
Speaker 2: that I'm sure they're setting up the tables to like
Speaker 2: power bomb me through the cycle pass. I'm gonna go
Speaker 2: under here. Josh Allen was at his best, just like
Speaker 2: you said, when he was running for his life. And
Speaker 2: that's not what you want from you, young QB. This
Speaker 2: rushing attack is terrible, I said, I said in my
Speaker 2: preview they have. There's less tread on the tires of
Speaker 2: this rushing attack than there isn't a Walmart shopping card.
Speaker 2: You got. Sean McCoy Frank or maybe TJ. Yelden. They've
Speaker 2: got the young kid out of what Florida Atlantic. He's
Speaker 2: been all right there in his one, you know, preseason appearance.
Speaker 2: You mentioned late season with the Bills and home might
Speaker 2: not be an issue for them, but the back end
Speaker 2: of this schedule is a bastard of a schedule. They
Speaker 2: play five of their final eight games away from home,
Speaker 2: and they struggled last year. They went two and six
Speaker 2: as visitors last season. I like the defense, but I
Speaker 2: don't think it's enough to make up for just a
Speaker 2: lack of offense. And I look at their wide receivers
Speaker 2: there too. They have What Brown and Cole Beasley. There's
Speaker 2: there's no one there that really gets me excited. No
Speaker 2: one there that that's it's it's not pushing me over.
Speaker 2: I think the Bills are overhyped. I think it's a
Speaker 2: little bit of a fade the public play here.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go on, Yeah, the public is definitely in
Speaker 1: favor of the Bills going over as am I and
Speaker 1: you know, look, I'm going to keep this podcast going.
Speaker 1: But that's right off the bat where we're going up
Speaker 1: against each other. And look, I agree the end the
Speaker 1: end of the year schedule. Yes, they are on the road.
Speaker 1: They have a lot of tough games towards the end,
Speaker 1: at Dallas, at Pittsburgh, at the Patriots, but you know,
Speaker 1: they're they're at Miami as well, they're home against Denver,
Speaker 1: They're home against the Jets. Those are certainly winnable games,
Speaker 1: and as I mentioned the beginning of the year, I
Speaker 1: think they're going to be able to kind of make
Speaker 1: a little run here, you know, at the Jets, at
Speaker 1: the Giants, and home against the Bengals. So for me,
Speaker 1: that's the What's funny is that is the one bet
Speaker 1: in the East that I really felt good about, so
Speaker 1: I'd be interested. You mentioned, you said maybe two that
Speaker 1: you had another one other than the Dolphins.
Speaker 2: In the Apid it was it was the Dolphins, and
Speaker 2: then my and then it was my Bills.
Speaker 1: Under that, oh you are the worst. The podcast where
Speaker 1: we're gonna all right, well, let me ask. Obviously, neither
Speaker 1: one of us feels particularly confident, but is there anything
Speaker 1: you know on the Patriots that you're you're necessarily thinking that,
Speaker 1: or the Jets or anything like that.
Speaker 2: I mean, I really like the Jets. I think they're
Speaker 2: going to be a great against the spread bet this year.
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna be a great over bet this year.
Speaker 2: I think Le'Veon Bell is the ultimate wild card, especially
Speaker 2: when you look at things like third third down conversions.
Speaker 2: Look how terrible the Jets were last year, and then
Speaker 2: if you look what the Pittsburgh Steelers did when they
Speaker 2: had Bell out there and he was that big target
Speaker 2: on some of those third downs, they were fantastic. They're
Speaker 2: converting converting third downs at like forty four and forty
Speaker 2: six percent. I think it's going to keep the chain
Speaker 2: moving for this for this Jets team. And I think
Speaker 2: I like Sam Darnold in his second season. I like
Speaker 2: their big Burley receiving corps when they're healthy too. I mean,
Speaker 2: they've got some big bodies out there. And they did
Speaker 2: did some improvement on the offensive line too. So I
Speaker 2: really like the Jets offense. I don't know, I think
Speaker 2: their season win Toal, what's what's their season Wintal? What
Speaker 2: do you got?
Speaker 1: Seven? Seven and a half?
Speaker 2: Seven and a half. Yeah, I see them. I see
Speaker 2: them as I kind of see them as a seven
Speaker 2: and nineteen, which is which is which is a huge improvement.
Speaker 2: That's three three more wins and what they have last year,
Speaker 2: I see I see them as as kind of a
Speaker 2: seven or nine team. I'm not I'm not jumping in.
Speaker 1: I am a Jets fan, unfortunately, and if you gave them,
Speaker 1: if you gave them a legitimate group of cornerbacks, if
Speaker 1: you gave them anything out there, I would buy the
Speaker 1: over without hesitation, you know, because I really like you know,
Speaker 1: I like their front seven. I think everything you said
Speaker 1: about Darnald is good. I feel good about Le'Veon Belle.
Speaker 1: They've got depth at running back too, right with Trenton
Speaker 1: Cannon and to Montgomery and Elijah Maguire. It's the cornerback
Speaker 1: position is so thin that I mean, it's really something
Speaker 1: where frankly, they get even one more injury and I
Speaker 1: don't even know who necessarily is going to be out there.
Speaker 1: Tremaine Johnson is already dealing with his injuries. So, you know,
Speaker 1: I look at their schedule, it kind of seems to
Speaker 1: me seven and a half is exactly right. It's gonna
Speaker 1: be seven or it's going to be eight. I would
Speaker 1: be really surprised if it's gonna be anything more than that.
Speaker 1: And speaking of the Jets, by the way, just because
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Speaker 1: So let's just close shop really quickly. On the Patriots. Look,
Speaker 1: I don't think you can analyze the Patriots like a
Speaker 1: normal team because they're just the Patriots. They haven't finished
Speaker 1: with fewer than eleven games, which is there over under
Speaker 1: mark since two thousand and nine. I would view them
Speaker 1: as probably about eleven without doing any real analysis because
Speaker 1: I don't think real analysis works with the Patriots because
Speaker 1: they're just not normal. So I would stay far away
Speaker 1: from this one. I don't know about you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's one of these things. I always look
Speaker 2: out for the Patriots to start slow in the year.
Speaker 2: Sometimes they'll go like two and two out of the
Speaker 2: gate or one and one and three out of the gate,
Speaker 2: or they'll drop two of their first three games and
Speaker 2: everyone loses their mind and then the odds adjusts and
Speaker 2: stuff like that. But it's a bit of a different
Speaker 2: season this year or no Gronk, a lot of new
Speaker 2: faces in the receiving corps. So I want to see
Speaker 2: if Brady gets any snaps over the preseason. It was
Speaker 2: weird last year. Last preseason he played a ton in
Speaker 2: this preseason, he hasn't. I don't expect them to play
Speaker 2: much at all, but he needs those reps with the
Speaker 2: new wide receivers, and I think we're gonna get a
Speaker 2: healthy dose of Sony Michelle. I think I think you're
Speaker 2: going to see a lot more leaning on him, much
Speaker 2: like they did through with the postseason last year. But again,
Speaker 2: it's you know, the Patriots. I think they just have
Speaker 2: to make the playoffs. I think that's just their main focus.
Speaker 2: They don't care about kind of the final total, as
Speaker 2: long as they make the playoffs and they get in.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I just you know, I look at their roster,
Speaker 1: I don't feel particularly great about it without Gronk, and
Speaker 1: I just think it doesn't matter, you know, I really,
Speaker 1: I just feel like at the end, they're probably going
Speaker 1: to be eleven and five, so I'm personally not going
Speaker 1: to go anywhere near them either, over undering, if I
Speaker 1: was forced to do something, I'd probably just take the push.
Speaker 1: So that's where i'd be. All right, let's move on
Speaker 1: to the Let's move on to the AFC North. You've
Speaker 1: got the Ravens at eight and a half. You've got
Speaker 1: the Bengals at five and a half, the Browns at
Speaker 1: nine and a half, and the Steelers at nine. So
Speaker 1: which one of those is your favorite? If any?
Speaker 2: So I got two here that I do like. I
Speaker 2: like the Cincinnati Bengals.
Speaker 1: Over you were just talking so much against them, man, No, no, no.
Speaker 2: I just said the Jets play Cincinnati in Week sixteen,
Speaker 2: and that could be the game in which it decided
Speaker 2: or not the Jets the Dolphins. The Dolphins play Sorry, yes,
Speaker 2: the Dolphins play them in Week sixteen. That could be
Speaker 2: the deciding, sweated out game for those season win total betters.
Speaker 2: I didn't say they were going to lose the game,
Speaker 2: all right, all right, what do you got their season
Speaker 2: win total? I've seen a six out there, what do
Speaker 2: you guys?
Speaker 1: I've got it at five and a half. So you're
Speaker 1: gonna like it even more.
Speaker 2: Well, hell yeah, I'll take that. Yeah, they do find
Speaker 2: themselves in one of the softer schedules here, twenty seventh,
Speaker 2: toughest schedule for Cincinnati. They didn't get much of a
Speaker 2: test there in twenty eighteen, but they just had so
Speaker 2: many injuries up and down, especially on the offense. It
Speaker 2: seemed like every week they were losing someone. And it
Speaker 2: seems like already the injury bug is still by the name.
Speaker 2: AJ Green's gonna miss at least six weeks here. They
Speaker 2: started the season really strong last year too. They came out,
Speaker 2: they won four of their first five, and then all
Speaker 2: those missing pieces started kind of biting him in the ass.
Speaker 2: Marvin Lewis is finally gone. I think Taylor is a
Speaker 2: nice breath of fresh air here. You know, I willy
Speaker 2: do the same. Sean McVay magic. I don't know about that,
Speaker 2: but I really like Cincinnati's team on paper. I like
Speaker 2: this offense on paper. I love Tyler Boyd the way
Speaker 2: he stepped up last year. And I love Joe Mixon.
Speaker 2: I think Joe Mixon might be a sleeper. I have
Speaker 2: him in one of my sleeper picks to win the
Speaker 2: rushing title this year. I think he's a fantastic running back.
Speaker 2: They did some improving on the offensive line, and they
Speaker 2: play other teams in this division really really tough.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and frankly, you look at the rest of their schedule,
Speaker 1: it's not terrible. I mean, they get Oakland, you mentioned Miami,
Speaker 1: they get Arizona. I five and a half wins is low.
Speaker 1: I just don't have a great feel for it because
Speaker 1: I really don't know what it's going to look like
Speaker 1: with Taylor's system. And again, the Jonah Williams injury on
Speaker 1: the offensive line, I think really really hurts. So for me,
Speaker 1: that was one where I just didn't have a great
Speaker 1: feel for it. It feels like between five and six wins,
Speaker 1: which is why it's at five and a half. So
Speaker 1: I really I didn't have a great sense. For me,
Speaker 1: I really feel pretty confident in the Ravens under eight
Speaker 1: and a half, which probably means you're gonna be like, oh,
Speaker 1: I feel great about the Ravens over.
Speaker 2: No, No, I agree, I agree with you on the
Speaker 2: I'm not sold on the Ravens. You go ahead and
Speaker 2: then I'll see if there's anything.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and no problem. I mean, look to me, we
Speaker 1: know that the question marks on offense, because you know
Speaker 1: they're basically they've got Lamar Jackson quarterback. You don't really
Speaker 1: know what it's gonna look like. I really think that
Speaker 1: you need that defense to be top notch, and I
Speaker 1: just don't really think that it's gonna be. I think
Speaker 1: they've lost too many pieces with Zadarius Smith and Brent Urban, CJ.
Speaker 1: Mosley and Terrell Suggs. So I don't really know how
Speaker 1: the front seven is going to play. I don't really
Speaker 1: know if we're gonna be able to rely on Marlon
Speaker 1: Humphrey again being an elite cornerback, and Jimmy Smith and
Speaker 1: Brandon Cargan a little long in the tooth. So the defense,
Speaker 1: for me, it just doesn't really get me too excited.
Speaker 1: And with the offense, I know Greg Roman knows how
Speaker 1: to run this system, but you know, you saw what
Speaker 1: happened in that playoff game against the Chargers. It's just
Speaker 1: not really a style that I think is necessarily something
Speaker 1: that can work over the long term. And you know,
Speaker 1: the NFC North, other than maybe the Bengals, is going
Speaker 1: to be tough, and then they get the NFC West,
Speaker 1: which means they've got to play in Seattle they've got
Speaker 1: to go up against the Rams, and they are one
Speaker 1: of the teams that goes to play in Buffalo at
Speaker 1: the end of the season. So for me, I can
Speaker 1: see a path to nine wins. If they won nine,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't fall down on the floor. I don't really
Speaker 1: see a path to ten wins, which means basically, to
Speaker 1: lose the bet, you've got to basically thread that needle,
Speaker 1: and I would be willing to risk it. So Baltimore
Speaker 1: under eight and a half is the one that really
Speaker 1: stuck out to me in the NFC North.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're on the right track with Baltimore too,
Speaker 2: and sometimes too. I mean, they did have a good
Speaker 2: defense last year, but a lot of it too was
Speaker 2: because they ran the football and they chewed up the clock,
Speaker 2: so that defense was not on the field that much
Speaker 2: at all. At any time that they did have any weaknesses,
Speaker 2: they weren't really exposed on it. Roman says he's completely
Speaker 2: revamped in this playbook after what we saw the Bolts
Speaker 2: do to them running what seven defensive backs o quarter defense? Yeah,
Speaker 2: and absolutely destroy them and just put a lot of
Speaker 2: speed out there, and that snuffed out the running attack
Speaker 2: and kind of forced Jackson to pass the ball, which
Speaker 2: he's not comfortable doing. I don't think you can win
Speaker 2: games by running the ball like that anymore, not in
Speaker 2: this NFL. And especially if they do find themselves, if
Speaker 2: the defense is weak and they find themselves behind, I
Speaker 2: don't think they have the firepower to catch up quickly.
Speaker 1: I think that's exactly it. I think in the end,
Speaker 1: they're just not suited to score a ton of points
Speaker 1: in any game, and I just don't see the defense
Speaker 1: as being the type of defense that's going to be
Speaker 1: able to allow them to kind of play up like that.
Speaker 1: Now Roman did it, of course with Kaepernick, but I
Speaker 1: feel like Kaepernick was I don't know. I don't know
Speaker 1: about Jackson. I don't know exactly what to expect from
Speaker 1: him necessarily as a passer. But you know Kaepernick, they
Speaker 1: were able to run it in San Francisco, so maybe
Speaker 1: he can.
Speaker 2: But just but if you saw it's almost a similar
Speaker 2: situation that you saw from Colin Kaepernick in that year
Speaker 2: with the forty nine ers, where he came in and
Speaker 2: it was this completely new generational quarterback almost the same
Speaker 2: way and last year came in and it was just
Speaker 2: such a change in direction that it threw other defenses
Speaker 2: off off their game and they you know, it finally
Speaker 2: took until that Wildcard round game for the Chargers to
Speaker 2: figure it out. Very kind of similar situations. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: think with more tape on this on this offense now,
Speaker 2: I think defenses are going to have a leg up
Speaker 2: and I'm just not confident in their passing game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree with you there. Okay, what about
Speaker 1: the Browns at nine and a half or the Steelers
Speaker 1: at nine? Do you like or dislike either one of those?
Speaker 2: I'm going under Browns. The Browns have been the most
Speaker 2: public team of the offseason. I mean, you look at
Speaker 2: their divisional futures, you look at their Super Bowl lodge.
Speaker 2: You look, I heard you hits, I heard you suck
Speaker 2: your teeth on that one. You're like, no, it's it's uh.
Speaker 2: And I think I think their numbers are a little
Speaker 2: bit inflated because of that. You know, Baker Mayfield is
Speaker 2: an exciting young quarterback. Yeah, the guy shotgun and beers
Speaker 2: at Tribe games. It's awesome. Oh they got OBJ in there. Yeah,
Speaker 2: that's awesome. However, he is still a second year quarterback,
Speaker 2: and I think as teams get more tape, on him.
Speaker 2: You're going to see something catch up with him over time,
Speaker 2: and the expectations are are huge. Was the season win total.
Speaker 1: Of nine, I've got it nine and a half, nine and.
Speaker 2: A half, which is a massive jump. I think they
Speaker 2: have a season win total what six or five or
Speaker 2: something last year, which.
Speaker 1: They were they were seven eight and one. There were
Speaker 1: seven eight one. Yeah no, but they's season win total
Speaker 1: the original yeah, yess.
Speaker 2: Wins And that's a and that's a huge that's a
Speaker 2: huge jump. And then also two teams like the Browns
Speaker 2: aren't going to catch teams off guard anymore. People aren't
Speaker 2: gonna look at the Browns and say, oh, that's a
Speaker 2: cupcake game and look past them. Especially when you got Mayfield.
Speaker 2: You know he loves to get in front of the microphone.
Speaker 2: You got Obj, you know he's going to be running
Speaker 2: his mouth. And then once they get Kareem Hunt out there,
Speaker 2: there's gonna be a lot of people that want to
Speaker 2: smack that guy in the mouth as well. I think
Speaker 2: the Browns have a big target on their back. I
Speaker 2: think people are going to come for them. I think
Speaker 2: people are going to love to shut them up. And again,
Speaker 2: this is this is a division where the rivalries will
Speaker 2: run deep. The blood is is very, very very hot.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't think that I'm not on the
Speaker 2: Browns over win total. I think they'll be I think
Speaker 2: the be a good team. But I'm not jumping off.
Speaker 2: I think it's a bit of a public inflated.
Speaker 1: Okay, look, you did hear correctly, but I'm not sitting
Speaker 1: here saying ooh, I love the Browns at over nine
Speaker 1: and a half, not not anywhere close. The Browns for
Speaker 1: all the reasons that you said. They give me a
Speaker 1: really really uneasy feeling. And it's basically when the public
Speaker 1: buys in so much and gets so excited, I always
Speaker 1: just naturally am sort of like, okay, well, you know,
Speaker 1: let's take a step back here. But I look closely
Speaker 1: at the team and it's really hard for me to
Speaker 1: kind of dislike them. And if I was forced to,
Speaker 1: this is one I would stay away from. I would
Speaker 1: not take the over, but if I was forced to,
Speaker 1: I think I probably would take the over. Again. I
Speaker 1: get everything with Mayfield, but they've added old Ell Beckham Junior.
Speaker 1: The offensive line has improved. The defense is going to
Speaker 1: be really solid overall, you know.
Speaker 2: See, the defense is going to be disruptive like they
Speaker 2: were last year. They're going to be disruptive. They'll get
Speaker 2: their big sacks and they're going to get their takeaways
Speaker 2: and stuff like that, but they are going to give
Speaker 2: up big plays. I don't think this defense is going
Speaker 2: to be an elite unit by any means.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm probably a little more bullish on
Speaker 1: them than New York. I don't think they're going to
Speaker 1: be elite, but I think they're gonna be pretty solid.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, upfront with Miles Garrett and Olivier
Speaker 1: Vernon and Sheldon Richardson, I love Denzel Award, Greedy Williams
Speaker 1: is solid. They've got pretty solid linebackers. I'm gonna like it.
Speaker 1: I think they can really stay in most games. The
Speaker 1: biggest thing the NFC North, like you said, they just
Speaker 1: beat the heck out of each other. That the AFC
Speaker 1: North that keep saying NFC sorry, they beat the heck
Speaker 1: out of each other. And so you could easily win
Speaker 1: or lose any game that you see them play at
Speaker 1: any given time. And I do think that you make
Speaker 1: a good point. I'm sure everybody's gonna hate Mayfield, and
Speaker 1: I'm sure anybody's gonna be gunning.
Speaker 2: And here's another here's another thing to consider here, And
Speaker 2: this may be a bit of a stretch, but these
Speaker 2: guys play five of their first eight games on the
Speaker 2: road in twenty nineteen. If they start dropping a few
Speaker 2: wins here or a few games that they should have won,
Speaker 2: Guys like Beckham, guys like Mayfield, you know someone's gonna
Speaker 2: say something stupid. All that confidence, all that swagger could
Speaker 2: just get sucked out of the locker room pretty quickly.
Speaker 2: So I think, I think, if I think, if Cleveland
Speaker 2: can survive the first half of the season, get through
Speaker 2: it without imploding with all those egos in the locker room,
Speaker 2: and I hope they do it. I would love to
Speaker 2: see Cleveland do well. I think there's such a fun
Speaker 2: team right now. But that's one thing that I kind
Speaker 2: of have my eye on there, is that they're gonna
Speaker 2: be They're gonna be pushed right out of the gate,
Speaker 2: and let's see if they crumble underneath that pressure.
Speaker 1: No, it is a fair point. Although again I mean
Speaker 1: some of their road games. I mean at the Jets,
Speaker 1: at Baltimore, Fine, I mean, of course, at San Francisco.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not it's not a murderer's road there
Speaker 1: to start the season. But you're right, and they're probably
Speaker 1: expected to win and not get off to a terrible start,
Speaker 1: and if they do, you never know what's going to happen.
Speaker 2: It's right, you drop a few games, you drop a
Speaker 2: few games that you know, the Browns could be kind
Speaker 2: of browning some people. They could be like, oh we
Speaker 2: got this one, Oh we got this one, and then
Speaker 2: you know, the Browns end up smacking them in the mouth,
Speaker 2: like last year with a lot of teams.
Speaker 1: So now that's a fair point. If it's a fair point,
Speaker 1: But if I had to, I personally would still take
Speaker 1: the over five. How about the Steelers at nine? Any
Speaker 1: feeling on that one.
Speaker 2: I do like the Steelers this year. I think the Steelers.
Speaker 2: I like to pick the Steelers to win this division.
Speaker 2: I think, you know, departure of Antonio Brown is playing
Speaker 2: into this perception where the Steelers have maybe fallen off
Speaker 2: in the AFC. North Cleveland looks great. Baltimore is the
Speaker 2: reigning division champ. I think Roethlisberger is still an elite passer.
Speaker 2: He led the league in the yards last year. I
Speaker 2: think Smith Schuster is fantastic. I think James Washington is
Speaker 2: going to be a fantastic wide receiver as well too.
Speaker 2: James Connor proved that he's a suitable replacement there. Maybe
Speaker 2: not the same runner as Le'Veon Bell, but a suitable
Speaker 2: replacement for the running game. They have a fantastic defensive line.
Speaker 2: They tied for the league in sacks last year. There's
Speaker 2: a lot of still very very good things with Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: They're very tough at home. It's tough to go into
Speaker 2: Hines Field and take a win from them. And I
Speaker 2: think Roethlisberger and Tomlin both have a lot to prove
Speaker 2: this season. I think Roethlisberger has a little bit of
Speaker 2: a chip on his shoulder saying, you know what, Yeah,
Speaker 2: I lost my two for best playmakers, but here's what
Speaker 2: I can do. And then Tomlin. You know, Tomlin got
Speaker 2: the courtesy extension before the preseason, but you know this
Speaker 2: guy's still playing for his job too.
Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly motivation is going to be a factor. Roethlisberger
Speaker 1: makes me a little nervous just of course his age,
Speaker 1: but his efficiency historically has been really down without Brown.
Speaker 1: But I agree, it's hard to doubt this team, right.
Speaker 1: They're just very consistent. They do it pretty much every year.
Speaker 1: I don't I would not feel great about the over
Speaker 1: at all. I would stay away from this one. But
Speaker 1: if you had to bet, you're saying you would go
Speaker 1: with the over right, Yeah, I'm.
Speaker 2: Gonna go with the over here. I like them. Then
Speaker 2: it's going to be a competitive division over nine. So
Speaker 2: they got a ten. Yeah, I could see them. I
Speaker 2: could see them there.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, if I had to pick, my guess
Speaker 1: is they're going to push, so I'd probably stay away
Speaker 1: from it. But either way, it's certainly not a terrible bet.
Speaker 1: Before we move on to the AFC South, I do
Speaker 1: want to remind everyone about our August contest. We are
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Speaker 1: screw greenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 3: That's it.
Speaker 1: At the end of August, We're gonna randomly select a winner,
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Speaker 1: This is our third episode. You're not looking at thousands
Speaker 1: of competitors here for this prize. Just yet, the contest
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Speaker 1: thirty first to be entered. All right, let's go to
Speaker 1: the South here, and you know, unfortunately we're in a
Speaker 1: little bit of a holding pattern here with the Andrew
Speaker 1: Luck injury, where it's now some sort of high ankle thing,
Speaker 1: you know, not just his calf, so it sounds like
Speaker 1: his availability for the opener could even be in doubt.
Speaker 1: It makes thinking about the over under the Colts in particular,
Speaker 1: but really all the teams a little difficult, but let's
Speaker 1: go through it. So Vegas sees this as a pretty
Speaker 1: even division overall. The Texans are at eight and a
Speaker 1: half wins, the Colts are at nine and a half,
Speaker 1: the Jaguars are at eight, and the Titans are at eight.
Speaker 1: So which one of these stands out to you is
Speaker 1: the best bet?
Speaker 2: You're going to prefix this to say all these teams
Speaker 2: were at these odds because there's plenty of sportsbooks now
Speaker 2: that are pulling down, especially the Colts. The Colts, I
Speaker 2: think I believe are off the board, and a few
Speaker 2: other books as well, to take the entire division off
Speaker 2: the board. And so I think that's the smart move here,
Speaker 2: because if Luck is not there for week one, or
Speaker 2: even if he misses a few games. Here, we've seen
Speaker 2: first and knowledge over the last two years how good
Speaker 2: this team can be with Luck and how bad it
Speaker 2: can be without Luck. Per set, serviceable QB. But he's
Speaker 2: not Luck, teams aren't going to treat him as such.
Speaker 2: You know it was ten. It opened nine and a
Speaker 2: half at some places too. So a lot of people
Speaker 2: are very high on the Colts.
Speaker 1: Let's see this, Let's see this. Let's let's imagine that
Speaker 1: we're two weeks later and Luck has been fully cleared,
Speaker 1: and so everything is going to be at these numbers,
Speaker 1: as if Luck is good to go for the open,
Speaker 1: all right, Texans eight and a half, Colts nine and
Speaker 1: a half, Jaguars eight, Titans eight. What do you think.
Speaker 2: You put me up against the spot there the.
Speaker 1: First if you want jump, no, no, no problem, okay.
Speaker 1: So I like to look at things as if let's
Speaker 1: just look because look, if Luck is hurt and you
Speaker 1: know we can't, you can't make any bets, then we
Speaker 1: are where we are. We can just skip the entire division.
Speaker 1: For me, I'll just look at it. If Luck gets
Speaker 1: cleared and if he's not going to miss a game,
Speaker 1: and if he's fine, then really, the one I like
Speaker 1: is the Colts, which opened at nine and a half.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're basically an elite team on every in
Speaker 1: every sense of the word.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Frank Reich is one of the best coaches. Luck is elite,
Speaker 1: Hilton is elite, the offensive line is elite. They've added
Speaker 1: Devin Funches and Paris Campbell. They've got Marlon Mack and
Speaker 1: Nam Hines. The defense was fantastic down the stretch. It
Speaker 1: is a tough schedule, but this is a Super Bowl
Speaker 1: contender if they're healthy. So if Luck is healthy at
Speaker 1: this point, and again if he's not, you just stay
Speaker 1: away from everything. And again you mentioned it. They've Vegas
Speaker 1: has pulled a lot of sportsbooks have pulled any of
Speaker 1: these over unders, but especially for the Colts. But if
Speaker 1: he is healthy at nine and a half, I would
Speaker 1: jump all over that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have to agree there. I really love Marlon
Speaker 2: Mack two as a complementary to a compliments, your piece
Speaker 2: to what Luck and Hilton can do with the passing game.
Speaker 2: I like Functius. That gives them a bigger target, a
Speaker 2: little a different kind of dynamic for his receiving game.
Speaker 2: And then their defense was was very very good there
Speaker 2: towards the end of last year. I guess I would
Speaker 2: at nine and a half. Yeah, I'll go over that.
Speaker 2: I like the little hook rather than sitting dead on
Speaker 2: the ten.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, how about anybody else in this division? Anybody
Speaker 1: jump out of you as good value?
Speaker 2: You know, I'm not. I'm not gonna pooh pooh Tennessee here,
Speaker 2: I've I've seen the season win total. Round eight. Yeah,
Speaker 2: what do you guys have there?
Speaker 1: Eight?
Speaker 2: Round eight? So, I mean this was very close to
Speaker 2: being a playoff team last year. They had that stupid
Speaker 2: Week one game in Miami that lasted forever. You know,
Speaker 2: had they won that game, they might have they probably
Speaker 2: would have been in the playoffs. Mariota got hurt it
Speaker 2: towards that heading into that Week seventeen, that final game
Speaker 2: against Indianapolis. Drell Casey was also for that game. So
Speaker 2: so two very important players on either side of the ball,
Speaker 2: both for that. This is year two under Varibel, I
Speaker 2: expect chemistry and cohesion to be a little little better.
Speaker 2: I've never been a Matt Lafleur fan. I don't think
Speaker 2: the offense changes too much with Arthur Smith and there
Speaker 2: being the tight ends coach and kind of not wanting
Speaker 2: to mix stuff around. But I've never been a big
Speaker 2: Laflur fan. I'm not a big fan of them going
Speaker 2: to Green Bay. I'm not expecting big things from them.
Speaker 2: I think this defense is the heart and soul of
Speaker 2: the team. Could be the best defense in the division.
Speaker 2: They gave up just under nineteen points per game last year.
Speaker 2: They're solid at just about every single level of that defense.
Speaker 2: And like I said, year two under Varabel, the chemistry
Speaker 2: comes together. I think Tennessee could could come in. I
Speaker 2: like they're over eight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I don't like anybody in this event.
Speaker 1: I mean, even assuming Luck is healthy and everything, State
Speaker 1: word is I just well, the only.
Speaker 2: Like they all play is the schedule for everyone scares
Speaker 2: you off. Because even Houston, even Houston on paper looks
Speaker 2: like a good team when they're healthy, but you look
Speaker 2: at that strength of schedule and the switch and strengths
Speaker 2: of schedule where you know, they played a cupcakes schedule
Speaker 2: last year and now they're you know, getting fed to
Speaker 2: the belly of the beast here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, got to go They've got to go
Speaker 1: to New Orleans. You know, they've got to go play
Speaker 1: against the Chargers. They playing, you know, because the NFC South,
Speaker 1: it's going to be a good division. That's who they drew,
Speaker 1: you know, Atlanta and Carolina. They do not have anywy schedule.
Speaker 1: That's the point. You know, all the they're basically everyone's
Speaker 1: going to be around eight wins, and I think that's
Speaker 1: exactly right. So I just kind of you know, and
Speaker 1: the Titans, I agree completely about their defense. I really
Speaker 1: like it. I just, man, I'm so down on Mariota
Speaker 1: at this point. He's just so inconsistent.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: Corey Davis has been a bit of a disappointment. I know,
Speaker 1: you know, they They've added Adam Humphrees, they drafted Ada Brown,
Speaker 1: Derek Henry's already dealing with injuries. I just I don't know,
Speaker 1: it strikes me as eight is the right number, frankly,
Speaker 1: so I'm not really sure.
Speaker 2: The thing I'm hoping that they do with Mariota is
Speaker 2: kind of, you know, let him be creative. The best.
Speaker 2: The best that Mariota is is when he's he's in
Speaker 2: these two minutes rills where he's able to come up
Speaker 2: to the line, call it, make the plays that he
Speaker 2: wants to play, play a little bit of school yard football.
Speaker 2: Lafleur didn't really necessarily allow him to do that. The
Speaker 2: same way he's kind of clamp it down on Aaron
Speaker 2: Rodgers a little bit and then sometimes you're hearing a
Speaker 2: little bit of the pushback there. I would love to
Speaker 2: see Mariota be able to to kind of freestyle it
Speaker 2: a little bit up there, because that's when he that's
Speaker 2: when he plays his best football.
Speaker 1: Well, let's hope they do it, right do we don't?
Speaker 1: Do we know what Arthur Smith is going to be doing,
Speaker 1: you know with the offense. I mean, that's the one
Speaker 1: thing I know.
Speaker 2: Maybe he said he said, he said, well here, you're
Speaker 2: coming from a tight ends coach, so he says, they
Speaker 2: want to be physical and they're going to look for
Speaker 2: a lot of Derrick Henry, a lot of rush. But
Speaker 2: I mean that's only going to get you so far.
Speaker 2: But outside of that, I don't see it changing. All
Speaker 2: too much. But I would like to see them kind
Speaker 2: of loosen loosen up on Mariota and let him and
Speaker 2: let him have some let him have some fun out there,
Speaker 2: because that's that's when he really does damage.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair and anything quickly on the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: You have a feel for them at eight wins.
Speaker 2: If yeah, this defense, if they if they could, if
Speaker 2: the defense can be dangerous like they were two years ago,
Speaker 2: not last year, And that was a big thing that
Speaker 2: was missing for this team last year is that they
Speaker 2: just weren't a dangerous team. They were a good defense,
Speaker 2: you know, in the trenches, they were fairly good defense,
Speaker 2: but they didn't have the takeaways. They didn't have those
Speaker 2: big game changing plays. Just look at that their takeaways
Speaker 2: from last year compared to the twenty seventeen season, big
Speaker 2: big difference. I think if they can find that danger
Speaker 2: element on defense, and then Nick Foles, Nick Foles is
Speaker 2: just an automatic improvement over Bortals, you.
Speaker 1: Would be an automatic improvement over there.
Speaker 2: I can sling it, brother, I'm sure, I'm yeah. I'm
Speaker 2: like Vinnie Testa Verdi. I'm trying to think of my
Speaker 2: I'm getting up there in age.
Speaker 1: Now, vine Testaverdi would be an improvement.
Speaker 2: There you go. Yeah, yeah, don't say that too loud,
Speaker 2: Vinnie testa Verdi.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Hey, I'm a Jets fan, right was like my hero.
Speaker 1: Don't worry about it.
Speaker 2: I'm a Cowboys fan. So we kind of got his
Speaker 2: his his gray years.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, for me, I'm kind of irrationally
Speaker 1: fond of the Jaguars this year. I like a lot
Speaker 1: of what they did. I expect the defense to be better.
Speaker 1: And again, like you said, Nick Foles is an upgrade,
Speaker 1: because anybody would be an upgrade. And they've got a
Speaker 1: pretty pretty decent depth at wide receiver. And I think
Speaker 1: Fournette is you know, he's slim down, He's probably gonna
Speaker 1: be good. But when you look at their schedule, I
Speaker 1: just you know, there's like eight losses that just jump out.
Speaker 1: You know, if Luck is healthy. You know, they've got
Speaker 1: two against the Colts, they got the Chiefs, the Saints,
Speaker 1: the Chargers, you know, they play in Carolina, in Atlanta,
Speaker 1: they'll probably split against the Texans. That's eight losses right there.
Speaker 1: So it's really hard. I'd love to be able to
Speaker 1: take the over, but you know, assuming that Luck is healthy,
Speaker 1: it's just not something that I'd be able to pull
Speaker 1: the trigger on. So all right, let's let's move on
Speaker 1: here to the West, our final division. We've got the
Speaker 1: Broncos at six and a half, the Chiefs at ten,
Speaker 1: the Raiders at six, and the Chargers at nine and
Speaker 1: a half. So do any of those jump out to
Speaker 1: you as good value?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess I'm gonna go Kansas City under Would
Speaker 2: you have ten and a half for Kansas City?
Speaker 1: Just ten? Just ten?
Speaker 2: Well, I've seen some ten and a half's out there
Speaker 2: as well, too. Tough start to the season here, they
Speaker 2: play three of their first four games on the road. Again,
Speaker 2: this is a team that caught a lot of people
Speaker 2: by surprise last season. Definitely not gonna be able to
Speaker 2: do that this year. The home games they do get
Speaker 2: here in the first six weeks, I get some some
Speaker 2: pretty tough teams. You got Baltimore, Indianapolis, in Houston, all
Speaker 2: of which were playoff teams in twenty eighteen. And then
Speaker 2: the schedule is backloaded with road games as well. They
Speaker 2: play four of their final seven away from home, with
Speaker 2: stops in New England and Chicago. There, I think that
Speaker 2: it's going to be it's gonna be a sweaty finish
Speaker 2: to the season for anyone that bets the over or
Speaker 2: the under on this total. But I mean, I I
Speaker 2: full faced them in the homes. I just think that
Speaker 2: it's going to be a tougher sledding for them. They're
Speaker 2: going to get everyone's best. They're not going to get
Speaker 2: you know, five for six weeks of grace where they
Speaker 2: kind of surprise teams last year.
Speaker 1: No, I think all of those are really good points.
Speaker 1: It's a tough line at ten. I mean, I think
Speaker 1: that's what you said. Either side, you're going to be
Speaker 1: swinning it out. So one of the things we do
Speaker 1: at Betting Pros, if you go on and you look
Speaker 1: at consensus over under and you click analysis, you can
Speaker 1: see every expert that has made picks what they've picked,
Speaker 1: and twenty four percent have gone over, ten percent have
Speaker 1: gone under, and sixty seven percent have it as a
Speaker 1: push at ten, which, frankly, that's basically exactly where I am.
Speaker 3: I mean.
Speaker 1: And that's, by the way, one of the things that
Speaker 1: you know we love about the site is that's kind
Speaker 1: of what it does. You can see generally where everybody
Speaker 1: whos submitting picks is on any given game, so at ten,
Speaker 1: ten strikes me at the number. I think if I
Speaker 1: had to at ten and a half, I would probably
Speaker 1: feel better about the under. At ten, I'd probably go push.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think you make a lot of great points.
Speaker 1: I just I don't really see value either way if
Speaker 1: you yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, and we saw defenses finally catch up with
Speaker 2: this team towards the back end of twenty eighteen. They
Speaker 2: especially if you measure up against the spread, they just
Speaker 2: kind of went from a cash cow to not covering
Speaker 2: at all because one of the public did adjust to it,
Speaker 2: but and the betting markets adjusted to it. But the
Speaker 2: defense has had a lot more tape on my homes.
Speaker 2: He was somewhat of an unknown commodity at that point, right,
Speaker 2: so they were able to I mean, the guy's fantastic
Speaker 2: and he's gonna have another fantastic here. But it is
Speaker 2: interesting to see the difference of what they can do
Speaker 2: or what they can do with Kareem Hunt and the
Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill thing. That was one thing like I was
Speaker 2: reading to really go under on them when Hill was
Speaker 2: Hill's suspension was up in the air. Now that he's back,
Speaker 2: you know, that's why we're gonna stuck on the ten.
Speaker 2: Maybe that's why everyone's stuck on ten though.
Speaker 1: Right, And you know, I think it's a really simple
Speaker 1: sort of explanation. But the bottom line is it is
Speaker 1: really hard in the NFL to win eleven games. I
Speaker 1: know the Patriots do it every single year, but it's
Speaker 1: just not I mean, you look at the Chiefs, You're like, oh, well,
Speaker 1: you know, they've got to win eleven games. That's a
Speaker 1: really high number. It's a really tough thing to do.
Speaker 1: So ten strikes me as right around the number that
Speaker 1: they're going to be at for me, my best bet,
Speaker 1: and it seems a little silly basically at this point
Speaker 1: to do it. But it would be the Raiders under
Speaker 1: six wins. They've got a couple of interesting things here.
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown is going to play. You know, They've got
Speaker 1: Tyroll Williams, Josh Jacobs and Hunter Renfro and they've added
Speaker 1: LaMarcus Joiner to the defense. So maybe they will improve
Speaker 1: off the four and twelve. But I mean, look look
Speaker 1: at the schedule, and that's really what it is. Okay,
Speaker 1: they open at home against the Broncos and the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: I'll be generous and I'll give them the win against
Speaker 1: the Broncos. Okay, their next five weeks at Minnesota, at Indianapolis,
Speaker 1: home against Chicago, by at Green Bay, and at Houston.
Speaker 1: That's four of their next five games on the road
Speaker 1: against good teams, and a home game against the Bears.
Speaker 1: I'm having a hard time seeing a win there. And
Speaker 1: then you look at the rest of the schedule. They're
Speaker 1: home against the Lions, I'll give them that. They're home
Speaker 1: against the Chargers. That's gonna be a loss. They're home
Speaker 1: against the Bengals, I'll give them that. They're at the Jets,
Speaker 1: I'll give them that. Then they're at the Chiefs. That's
Speaker 1: a loss. That is four wins so far with four
Speaker 1: games to play. They're not gonna win in Los Angeles
Speaker 1: against the Chargers. So to come in over the six wins,
Speaker 1: they've got to win the other three games left. That
Speaker 1: means that they need to beat Tennessee at home, they
Speaker 1: need to beat Jacksonville at home, and they need to
Speaker 1: beat Denver on the road. I don't see them possibly
Speaker 1: winning those three games. And I think you mentioned it earlier.
Speaker 1: With another team you can see Antonio. I think the Browns.
Speaker 1: You can see Antonio Brown mentally checking out this team
Speaker 1: gets off to a one and six start, right, So
Speaker 1: for me, this is just strikes me as a disastrous
Speaker 1: year for the Raiders, and I could I could see
Speaker 1: them easily coming in under. So that's my favorite one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of new faces in that receiving
Speaker 2: core two that they have to fit in and get
Speaker 2: chemistry very very quickly with Derek Carr as well, and
Speaker 2: I think they off to a slow start for them.
Speaker 2: I like the under on Denver for this one here
Speaker 2: under what do you guys have seven?
Speaker 1: I've got six and a half?
Speaker 2: Six and a half. Yeah, I like the under with them.
Speaker 2: I could see them getting like they might be able
Speaker 2: to get four wins at home this season. Then it's
Speaker 2: kind of like, oh, okay, they're halfway there, but the
Speaker 2: road schedule is just wretched outside of Week one at Oakland,
Speaker 2: and even then you're saying Oakland goes in and beats
Speaker 2: beats Denver, right, and then they have Week twelve at Buffalo,
Speaker 2: But then, like, where do the other four wins come from?
Speaker 2: It's a really tough run for them if Fangio brings
Speaker 2: some changes. But I'm not really I mean, I don't
Speaker 2: think anyone's really buying into a Flacco led offense, even
Speaker 2: if they run the ball to it every three snaps.
Speaker 2: He just like I said earlier, you can't compete in
Speaker 2: a pass first league, especially in this division where you
Speaker 2: know teams are gonna put up a ton of points.
Speaker 2: You can't. You can't do that with without being able
Speaker 2: to pass the football confidently and stretch it an opposing defense.
Speaker 2: It's just not going to happen. So I like the
Speaker 2: under there for the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. That was the second one that I
Speaker 1: would like. My gain, my favorite the Raiders. If I
Speaker 1: had to do another one, it would be the Broncos
Speaker 1: under six and a half. And really, for all the
Speaker 1: reasons that you mentioned. I mean, if Emmanuel Sanders comes
Speaker 1: back and is in fact healthy by week one, then
Speaker 1: more power to him. But I just really don't think
Speaker 1: you want to rely on Joe Flacco.
Speaker 2: Which doesn't matter, doesn't matter, it doesn't matter. You might
Speaker 2: be able to have Antonio Brown out there, and if
Speaker 2: Joe Flacker is your quarterback, get to him now.
Speaker 1: Really, but you pointed out it's the schedule. I mean,
Speaker 1: it is a really, really tough schedule for the AFC West.
Speaker 1: They draw the NFC North and the AFC South, you know,
Speaker 1: and again they're in They're the team that's in Buffalo
Speaker 1: late in the season. That's a really really tough game
Speaker 1: to win. So I agree six and a half is
Speaker 1: under anything, go ahead.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry that I was going to say, just look
Speaker 2: at the road games there, like so, they're they're at Oaklynn,
Speaker 2: that's maybe a win there. At green Bay always tough
Speaker 2: to play at the Chargers at Indy, at Minnesota, at
Speaker 2: Buffalo again and towards the end of November. So, like
Speaker 2: you said, cold weather, crappy place to play. They're at
Speaker 2: Houston at Kansas City.
Speaker 1: And that's nice.
Speaker 2: That is. I don't know where else they're going to
Speaker 2: find any wins now.
Speaker 1: I agree. It's a really, really, really difficult schedule, particularly
Speaker 1: the breakdown as you said, between the home and away games.
Speaker 1: So it's certainly not something that I would be super
Speaker 1: excited about if I could, but I would go for
Speaker 1: the under there. And how about the final team, the Chargers.
Speaker 1: They were at nine and a half in the consensus hots.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Chargers. Chargers are tough one Chargers. Last year, I
Speaker 2: wasn't really sold on the Chargers. I was waiting with
Speaker 2: baited breath to bet against the Chargers in the playoffs. Now,
Speaker 2: I did take them against Baltimore and that in that
Speaker 2: wildcard round, But then when they played the Patriots, I
Speaker 2: knew they were going to expose. I just saw last
Speaker 2: year that they played a lot of soft offenses. I
Speaker 2: thought that their defensive numbers were a bit puffed up
Speaker 2: because of that. The offense is great and even with
Speaker 2: even without Melvin Gordon, if he holds out, it doesn't play.
Speaker 2: I think they're fine. I mean, Justin Johnson looked fantastic
Speaker 2: in the preseason, Austin Eckler is more than capable of
Speaker 2: of of taking over the number one running back roll,
Speaker 2: and then Philip Rivers is still an elite passer. So
Speaker 2: I think they're going to put up their points. They
Speaker 2: get Bosa back for a full year now, and he's
Speaker 2: a He's a one man wrecking crew out there, So
Speaker 2: I could see. I could see San Diego going in,
Speaker 2: maybe maybe winning this division and going over. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I agree, except that I have to correct it and
Speaker 1: we have to call them Los Angeles because.
Speaker 2: I got Oh did I call them San Diego?
Speaker 3: You did?
Speaker 1: It's funny. I wonder how long we're gonna need how
Speaker 1: long we're going to need to do that, It's got
Speaker 1: to be three or four seasons, right, because I still
Speaker 1: do it too, and my producer has yelled at me
Speaker 1: before and I just did.
Speaker 2: I just did San Diego television before and talked about
Speaker 2: the Los Angeles Chargers. Yeah. Yeah, I set my my
Speaker 2: over under on San Diego Chargers at three and a
Speaker 2: half season, so I'm already at one.
Speaker 1: All right. Well, hopefully, hopefully we can have you back
Speaker 1: again late in the season and we can talk more
Speaker 1: and we can just talk about the San Diego Superchargers.
Speaker 3: And that'd be great.
Speaker 2: The San Diego Charger.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely. I just as long as they do the
Speaker 1: powder blue uniforms. I'm I'm okay with it at times.
Speaker 1: All right, that's gonna do it for today show, Jason.
Speaker 1: I know how busy you are. You were just on
Speaker 1: TV right before you came on this show, so I
Speaker 1: really appreciate you taking the time to talk a little
Speaker 1: football with me today. I hope we can do it
Speaker 1: again during the season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, happy to do it anytime you guys want
Speaker 2: to chat. Man, I'm here, all.
Speaker 1: Right, great, and I do want to remind everyone about
Speaker 1: play MGM, where you can place your first wager of
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Speaker 1: it to contest at bettingpros dot com. Thanks for joining
Speaker 1: us today. We will be back next week with some
Speaker 1: more betting advice for the upcoming NFL season.
Speaker 3: I'll talk to you then, Heavy Name. I think that
Speaker 3: I thought that have not been