WEBVTT - AFC Over/Under Wins: Best Bets (Ep. 3) 0:00:07.400 --> 0:00:10.119 Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of 0:00:10.160 --> 0:00:13.920 the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by play MGM. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:16.520 I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on 0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:19.280 Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. If you listen to our 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.000 two shows last week, you now should feel pretty confident 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:24.640 about the sports betting landscape and some of the best 0:00:24.680 --> 0:00:27.040 over unders for the NFC. Well, today we're going to 0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:29.160 tie a little bow on the season long over unders 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:31.920 by breaking down the AFC. And with me to do 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:35.280 that is Jason Logan, the senior managing editor for Covers. 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:38.680 He and everyone there provides outstanding information across the sports 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:41.240 betting industry, and you can find him on Twitter at 0:00:41.400 --> 0:00:44.360 Covers j LO. Jason, thanks so much for joining me today. 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:44.839 What's going on? 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:47.520 Not too much. I got some in laws in town, 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:50.479 so my host is full of children run around and 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:53.000 screaming and trying to get some work done around that, 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:53.760 so that's awesome. 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:55.720 I'm hoping that this is going to be the I'm 0:00:55.720 --> 0:00:57.520 hoping this is going to be the first podcast that 0:00:57.600 --> 0:01:00.400 I do where my kids don't somehow inter rup me 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:02.680 because they basically they have like a sixth sense or 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.639 something about whenever I'm podcasting and they immediately breaking them office. 0:01:05.880 --> 0:01:08.319 Absolutely I was before we went on here, I was 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:11.240 doing television with a t with the station in San 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:14.760 Diego and my son just comes marching down the stairs 0:01:14.800 --> 0:01:19.080 with NERF gun and like laser scope eye things on. Yeah. 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:20.560 I was like, you gotta go better. 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:23.040 Now, that's some good TV. I'd watch that. Actually, if 0:01:23.080 --> 0:01:24.240 that I was just waiting. 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:25.800 I was just waiting to catch a NERF gun into 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:26.039 the ear. 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:28.360 Absolutely. Well, Look, before we get started, I'm sure most 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:30.880 people listening probably have the same question I do, which 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:33.760 is how many angry dms have you gotten from Jennifer 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:36.160 Lopez about your use of j LO and your Twitter handle, 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:37.959 Because I mean it's got to be like five or 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:39.039 six at this point, right. 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:42.000 No, No, not much from him. A lot from Alex Rodriguez. Yeah, 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:44.520 a lot from Alex Rodriguez, but not not not any 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:45.960 from from the actual. 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:47.400 All right, well that's good to know, I guess. I 0:01:47.440 --> 0:01:49.480 mean it's good for you because Frank O'harris he emails 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:53.120 me like every day pissed off about the my Twitter handles. 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:55.400 So look, you're a big name in the sports betting industry. 0:01:55.440 --> 0:01:57.960 But before we get into the AFC over unders. I 0:01:58.280 --> 0:01:59.880 was hoping you can kind of tell everybody a little 0:01:59.880 --> 0:02:02.480 bit about yourself, how you got into focusing on sports, 0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:05.560 beending what exactly you do over it covers your eight 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:06.960 favorite foods, whatever you got. 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:09.839 Oh, I'm a tacos guy, so all right, any type 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:12.800 of taco I'm in, softer, hard, doesn't matter. 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:13.840 No. 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:16.480 I started with covers back in two thousand and five, 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:20.320 actually right before that Eagles Patriot super Bowl, So I 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:22.480 was somewhat thrown into the fire. I started as what 0:02:22.560 --> 0:02:24.679 was called a content editor, so we did shift work, 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:27.160 so we worked like a twelve hour day, nine in 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:28.839 the morning till nine at night, and then you'd flip 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:30.280 it and work nine at nights and nine in the morning. 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:31.960 We had a twenty four hour crew at that time. 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:35.520 And then from there I went on and became a 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:38.680 full time writer covered college basketball and baseball in the summer, 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:41.680 and then went on to be an associate editor and 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:43.920 then eventually took over to the department. So I mean, 0:02:44.040 --> 0:02:46.280 in a nutshell, I kind of manage all things content 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.280 from the creative side. It could be articles, it could 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:54.440 be our video products and podcasts, our social output as 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:55.880 well too, So I kind of have my fingers in 0:02:55.919 --> 0:02:57.560 a lot of those pies as well. As you know. 0:02:57.560 --> 0:02:59.600 I worked with our product teams and our development teams, 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:03.440 sales and marketing teams, so lots of meetings every day. 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:05.359 So when I do, when I do get to sit 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:08.079 down and bang out some content around sports betting, it's 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:08.800 therapeutic for me. 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:11.320 Yeah, your site is great. I've been. I've been checking 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:13.840 it out basically all week. They've got a ton of 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:17.240 stuff over there, basically sports betting from every angle, so 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:18.799 it's really great to check out. I don't want to, 0:03:18.919 --> 0:03:20.079 you know, I don't want to dig too. Do you've 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:21.480 been to ask you about your age or anything? But 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:24.160 is this something that legitimately like did you start when 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:25.760 you were a young guy, did you have a whole 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:27.359 other profession or anything like that. 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:30.800 Nope, No, I started with covers. I was probably I 0:03:30.840 --> 0:03:32.919 was a year removed from school thinking of going back 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:35.640 to school. But in terms of sports betting, I mean 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:38.920 I I mean Canada. I'm located in Canada and we 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:43.240 have a lottery system sports betting. It's not fantastic. It's 0:03:43.240 --> 0:03:45.600 a lot of parlays and skewed odds that returns aren't 0:03:45.640 --> 0:03:49.640 what they should be. But you know, eighteen eighteen year old, 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:51.080 you don't know the ins and outs and that. But 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:52.240 I've been a lot of basketball and a lot of 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:56.160 baseball at that time, and then I got the job 0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:58.720 with Covers and then just kind of learned the ins 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:02.240 and outs of sports betting and you know, what is 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:06.080 important what isn't important in terms of sports betting knowledge 0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:09.240 versus sports knowledge, versus fantasy knowledge, because there's all other 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:11.440 it's a it's a different scope in which you need 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:14.400 to view sports through. You know, people say they're a 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:17.680 big sports fan until they kind of step into the 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:19.880 sports betting world and there's so many angles that you 0:04:20.000 --> 0:04:23.040 just don't think of. And even to this day, I 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:26.320 mean I've been with Covers for almost fourteen years here 0:04:26.360 --> 0:04:31.160 and still learning things every day every day. So yeah, 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:35.000 that's that's kind of my kind of progression through sports bet. 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:37.159 It's a great point that you bring up, because you know, 0:04:37.240 --> 0:04:40.480 I talked about a little bit last week with Dustin Goucher, 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:43.320 who's a journalist who covers sort of the evolving sports 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:45.599 betting landscape in the United States. Yeah, no, I know, 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:49.880 I know, Dustin, Yeah, Dustin, Dustin's great, but you know, 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:51.960 the big thing is that, you know, people in the 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:55.160 United States, it's just suddenly this whirlwind, right, you get 0:04:55.200 --> 0:04:58.880 a Supreme Court decision that overturns sort of a law 0:04:59.000 --> 0:05:02.039 that says no, they can legalize sports betting, and now 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:04.200 nobody really knows sort of what to do. Everybody just 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:06.159 kind of wants to run out and say, great, I 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:08.200 can bet to the extent their state has legalized it. 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:11.400 And people don't really fully understand kind of what goes 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:13.320 into it. And so, you know, that's kind of what 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:16.720 we want to do today and here at this podcast 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:19.200 is to kind of give people a little more guidance 0:05:19.240 --> 0:05:20.720 as to how to do that. So here's what we're 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:22.560 going to do today. We're going to go division by 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:25.839 division in the AFC and talk about the over unders 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:28.520 for every team in each division. We'll start with the East, 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:30.919 then the North, the South, and then the West. And 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:34.120 we're going to be using the consensus over unders from 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:38.120 bettingpros dot com, which is basically the aggregate of available 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:40.359 odds in the market, and we'll talk about any that 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:41.400 we like or we don't like. 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:43.200 Has that sound yeah, that sounds great? 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:45.000 All right, good, But before we get into it, you 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:46.840 heard at the top of the show that I mentioned 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:49.039 that we're brought to you by play MGM, and I 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:51.839 want to tell you about their new app, play MGM Sports. 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:54.600 With the play MGM Sports app, if you're in New Jersey, 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:56.640 you can bet on pretty much any sport you want, 0:05:56.800 --> 0:06:00.160 including college football, baseball, and of course the NFL. 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All right, let's start with the East here, 0:07:04.080 --> 0:07:06.560 and I'm going to just list the over unders for 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:09.400 each team and then you can basically tell me which one, 0:07:09.440 --> 0:07:13.200 if any, stand out to you as a good bet. 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:16.200 The Bills are over under at six and a half wins, 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:20.280 the Dolphins are at five, the Patriots are at eleven, 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:22.840 and the Jets are at seven and a half. So 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:26.240 do any of them stand out to you as particularly 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:26.840 good value? 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:30.640 Yeah, so I've got two season win total kind of 0:07:30.680 --> 0:07:33.120 picks that this. I've already previewed the AFC East and 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:35.560 one of my articles here you can find that on covers. 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:39.720 And surprisingly enough, the best over win total bet that 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:41.840 I thought that was there in the AFC East was 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:45.360 the Miami Dolphins. I know, clutch the Pearls clutch the 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:48.679 Pearls four and a half four is where I'm seeing 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:51.720 some of these ones. The AFCAS really isn't that tough 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:53.440 a division, and you have the Patriots and then you 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:57.120 have everyone else. And Miami really did overachieve last year. 0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:01.240 You know, the seven wins. They ranked as the luckiest 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:03.280 team if you saw them play. They scored a lot 0:08:03.280 --> 0:08:06.640 of big plays on special teams, on defense, on offense, 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:09.360 just a lot of kind of fluky plays. They don't 0:08:09.400 --> 0:08:12.000 get the same soft schedule that they had last year, 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:15.200 but because they played this weaker division, I could see 0:08:15.200 --> 0:08:17.840 them stealing at least two or three divisional wins here, 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:20.760 picking up a couple victories, and non conference play, they 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:23.000 play the Giants, they host the Redskins. Those are two 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:25.360 weaker teams, and then they have this late season game 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:28.040 against Cincinnati a week sixteen. That's going to be the 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:30.680 all or nothing game right there. I think that's what 0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:33.600 it's going to come down to. It's more a play 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:37.199 against the rest of the AFC East than a play 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:40.040 on the Dolphins. And I'm just asking them to be terrible, 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:42.080 not horrific, just terrible. 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:44.720 Well, I mean, I think the big point is at five, 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:47.040 which is at the consensus over under. That's the lowest 0:08:47.080 --> 0:08:49.360 over under that's available in the game right now, at 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:51.920 least on the consensus over unders. Yeah, a couple of us. 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:55.880 I've seen the Dolphins between four four and a half five. 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:59.200 Yeah, so yeah, And look for me, I personally, I 0:08:59.240 --> 0:09:02.000 had no feel for that bet because there's just so 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:02.840 many questions. 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:03.040 Right. 0:09:03.120 --> 0:09:05.400 You look at last year and that's fine, but obviously 0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:09.120 Adam Gase was the head coach. You've got new quarterbacks 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:12.839 with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen. We don't really know 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:15.440 what Brian Floor is going to be as a head coach, right. 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:17.280 I mean, he's already driving us nuts with the whole 0:09:17.360 --> 0:09:20.680 Klin Blage and Kenyan Drake, although Drake of course got 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:23.160 injured and is in a walking boot right now. And 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:26.360 the defense is largely the same which was kind of mediocre, 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:28.760 and now they're probably going to switch to a different system. 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:31.440 So for me, I agree that if I was forced 0:09:31.440 --> 0:09:33.880 to choose one, I would go over, But I had 0:09:34.000 --> 0:09:36.080 just little feel for it because I feel like there's 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:38.680 just a lot of question marks surrounding what the team's 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:39.600 going to look like this year. 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:42.640 Yeah. Absolutely, And the Dolphins always have those games too, 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:44.560 where they surprise you all of a sudden, they come 0:09:44.559 --> 0:09:47.760 out of nowhere. They've they've played the Patriots very at. 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:50.880 Home at home. The Patriots always seemed to struggle in Miami. 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:53.120 Yeah, yeah, so, I mean if they can, all they 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:55.080 need to do is just steal a couple extra games 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:58.000 and they'll have people sweating. I think that game against 0:09:58.000 --> 0:10:01.000 Cincinnati a week sixteen is going to be the be 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:02.839 the tiebreaker for that one. 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:05.439 Yeah, certainly, Cincinnati is a team that you look at 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:07.160 on the schedule and you get pretty excited about if 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:09.160 you're an imposing team. For me, the game that stuck 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:12.319 out with the I'm sorry, the team at the that 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:14.599 stuck out for me where the Bills at six and 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:16.719 a half, and I like the over here. Now. It's 0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:18.880 not anything where I think they're going to win ten 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:21.319 games or anything like that, but they strike me as 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:23.640 much more of a five hundred team. There's still a 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:26.080 lot of question marks, you know, around them. They don't 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:28.360 have a great pass rush. It's really Jerry Hughes and 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:33.000 not much else. There are major accurate accuracy concerns with 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:35.000 Josh Allen, and you know he's not going to be 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:38.280 I don't think the type of Lamar Jackson quarterback because 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:39.960 although he had a ton of rushing yards, they were 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.320 mostly scrambles last year. You know, it's not as if 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:44.480 they're going to do that system that they did and 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:46.959 that they're going to do in Baltimore. But the thing 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:49.719 for me is that they've they've just made a few 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:51.880 changes that I really like. They've added a lot to 0:10:51.920 --> 0:10:54.240 their offensive line. It's not going to be an elite unit, 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:56.920 but I think it's going to be pretty pretty improved. 0:10:56.960 --> 0:10:59.360 The run games should do enough. They've you know, nothing's 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:01.400 outstanding there, but they've got a lot of depth with 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:04.640 Leashau McCoy and Frank Gore and Devin Singletary and tj 0:11:04.720 --> 0:11:07.120 Yeldin if he makes the team. They added John Brown, 0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:09.200 so now they have another deep threat and although Josh 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.920 Allen is not accurate whatsoever, he can throw the deep 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:14.400 ball with pretty much the best of them. And with 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:16.640 their defense. Look, they don't have a great pass rush, 0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:19.480 but they're solid at linebacker. They've got Tredavius White. So 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:22.360 for me, you mentioned the schedule. They won six games 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:25.800 last year and they open at the Jets, at the Giants, 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:28.319 and home against the Bengals. They could easily be three 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:30.680 and oh after the first three games. They've got the 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:33.040 two games against Miami, They've got a home game against 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:36.080 Washington and late in the season. Buffalo is a really 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:38.920 tough place to play. You know that that crowd is crazy, 0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:41.760 it's gonna be freezing, it's gonna be hostile. I think 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:43.840 they're more like an eight win team. So for me, 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:46.680 the over at six and a half is really the 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:48.600 one bet that set out to me is good value. 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:50.480 I'm gonna say you're wrong. I'm gonna say you're wrong 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:52.720 that well. I'm going with the Bills. I'm going with 0:11:52.760 --> 0:11:55.559 the Bills under I have fans and the Bills mafia 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:57.560 that I'm sure they're setting up the tables to like 0:11:57.640 --> 0:12:00.520 power bomb me through the cycle pass. I'm gonna go 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:03.840 under here. Josh Allen was at his best, just like 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:05.640 you said, when he was running for his life. And 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:07.400 that's not what you want from you, young QB. This 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:10.040 rushing attack is terrible, I said, I said in my 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:12.720 preview they have. There's less tread on the tires of 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:15.080 this rushing attack than there isn't a Walmart shopping card. 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:18.440 You got. Sean McCoy Frank or maybe TJ. Yelden. They've 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:20.680 got the young kid out of what Florida Atlantic. He's 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:24.240 been all right there in his one, you know, preseason appearance. 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:27.200 You mentioned late season with the Bills and home might 0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:29.440 not be an issue for them, but the back end 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:32.679 of this schedule is a bastard of a schedule. They 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:35.280 play five of their final eight games away from home, 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:37.680 and they struggled last year. They went two and six 0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:40.840 as visitors last season. I like the defense, but I 0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:43.040 don't think it's enough to make up for just a 0:12:43.160 --> 0:12:45.040 lack of offense. And I look at their wide receivers 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:50.720 there too. They have What Brown and Cole Beasley. There's 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:52.839 there's no one there that really gets me excited. No 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.120 one there that that's it's it's not pushing me over. 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.719 I think the Bills are overhyped. I think it's a 0:12:57.760 --> 0:12:59.200 little bit of a fade the public play here. 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:03.240 I'm gonna go on, Yeah, the public is definitely in 0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:05.840 favor of the Bills going over as am I and 0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:07.680 you know, look, I'm going to keep this podcast going. 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:10.520 But that's right off the bat where we're going up 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:12.680 against each other. And look, I agree the end the 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:15.240 end of the year schedule. Yes, they are on the road. 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:16.960 They have a lot of tough games towards the end, 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:20.520 at Dallas, at Pittsburgh, at the Patriots, but you know, 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:23.240 they're they're at Miami as well, they're home against Denver, 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:25.680 They're home against the Jets. Those are certainly winnable games, 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:27.480 and as I mentioned the beginning of the year, I 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:29.360 think they're going to be able to kind of make 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:31.560 a little run here, you know, at the Jets, at 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:33.360 the Giants, and home against the Bengals. So for me, 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:36.319 that's the What's funny is that is the one bet 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:38.520 in the East that I really felt good about, so 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:40.920 I'd be interested. You mentioned, you said maybe two that 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:42.960 you had another one other than the Dolphins. 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:45.560 In the Apid it was it was the Dolphins, and 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:47.079 then my and then it was my Bills. 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:50.840 Under that, oh you are the worst. The podcast where 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:52.760 we're gonna all right, well, let me ask. Obviously, neither 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:56.000 one of us feels particularly confident, but is there anything 0:13:56.920 --> 0:13:59.480 you know on the Patriots that you're you're necessarily thinking that, 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:01.080 or the Jets or anything like that. 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:03.720 I mean, I really like the Jets. I think they're 0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:06.040 going to be a great against the spread bet this year. 0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:08.440 I think they're gonna be a great over bet this year. 0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:11.880 I think Le'Veon Bell is the ultimate wild card, especially 0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:14.679 when you look at things like third third down conversions. 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:16.600 Look how terrible the Jets were last year, and then 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:18.600 if you look what the Pittsburgh Steelers did when they 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:20.920 had Bell out there and he was that big target 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:24.560 on some of those third downs, they were fantastic. They're 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:27.720 converting converting third downs at like forty four and forty 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.160 six percent. I think it's going to keep the chain 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:35.320 moving for this for this Jets team. And I think 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:38.000 I like Sam Darnold in his second season. I like 0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:40.480 their big Burley receiving corps when they're healthy too. I mean, 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:43.200 they've got some big bodies out there. And they did 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:45.400 did some improvement on the offensive line too. So I 0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:49.440 really like the Jets offense. I don't know, I think 0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:51.360 their season win Toal, what's what's their season Wintal? What 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:51.600 do you got? 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:52.960 Seven? Seven and a half? 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:56.920 Seven and a half. Yeah, I see them. I see 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:58.320 them as I kind of see them as a seven 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.160 and nineteen, which is which is which is a huge improvement. 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:03.040 That's three three more wins and what they have last year, 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:04.800 I see I see them as as kind of a 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:06.800 seven or nine team. I'm not I'm not jumping in. 0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:10.720 I am a Jets fan, unfortunately, and if you gave them, 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:14.640 if you gave them a legitimate group of cornerbacks, if 0:15:14.680 --> 0:15:18.400 you gave them anything out there, I would buy the 0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:21.880 over without hesitation, you know, because I really like you know, 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:23.680 I like their front seven. I think everything you said 0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:26.280 about Darnald is good. I feel good about Le'Veon Belle. 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:28.400 They've got depth at running back too, right with Trenton 0:15:28.480 --> 0:15:32.360 Cannon and to Montgomery and Elijah Maguire. It's the cornerback 0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:35.640 position is so thin that I mean, it's really something 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:39.360 where frankly, they get even one more injury and I 0:15:39.360 --> 0:15:42.440 don't even know who necessarily is going to be out there. 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:45.440 Tremaine Johnson is already dealing with his injuries. So, you know, 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.080 I look at their schedule, it kind of seems to 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:50.760 me seven and a half is exactly right. It's gonna 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:52.320 be seven or it's going to be eight. I would 0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:55.120 be really surprised if it's gonna be anything more than that. 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:57.520 And speaking of the Jets, by the way, just because 0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:00.360 we're on it. I do want to mention I mentioned 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:05.880 play MGM earlier. They have a preposterous promotion right now 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:08.640 for Thursday's preseason game between the Jets and the Falcons 0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:10.720 that I just want to mention. They have something called 0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:15.480 an odds boost for new players, and it's really absolutely insane. 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:18.600 If you place a one dollar money line wager on 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:22.440 the Jets to beat the Falcons in Thursday night preseason game, 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:25.160 you're gonna get paid at one hundred to one odds. 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:28.360 If the Jets score a point, you got that. You 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:30.400 place a one dollar bet on the Jets to win, 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:33.240 and even if the Jets lose, you get one hundred 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:36.480 to one payout so long as they score a point, 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:39.280 that is nuts. And if that's not good enough for you, 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:41.840 if you place a one dollar money line wager on 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:45.000 either the Jets to beat the Falcons on Thursday or 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:47.120 the Giants to beat the Bears on Friday at a 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:50.960 standard odds price, and if either team wins, you win 0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:53.920 one hundred to one odds on your bet. So you've 0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:55.840 got the Jets scoring a point, you win one hundred 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:57.720 to one odds on your dollar. If the Jets are 0:16:57.760 --> 0:16:59.600 Giants win, you get one hundred to one odds on 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:02.160 your dollars. This is for new players only, but here's 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.080 all you have to do. Download the play MGM Sports app, 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:07.479 which you were going to do anyway, and use our 0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:10.960 promo code Harris, sign up and depositive least ten dollars, 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:13.840 and you place your one dollar bet. Done, and play 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:15.760 MGM is going to be doing things like this often, 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:18.440 which is just another reason why you should be downloading 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:20.760 the app and using it anytime you're in New Jersey. 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:23.560 So let's just close shop really quickly. On the Patriots. Look, 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:25.359 I don't think you can analyze the Patriots like a 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:28.840 normal team because they're just the Patriots. They haven't finished 0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:31.320 with fewer than eleven games, which is there over under 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:33.760 mark since two thousand and nine. I would view them 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:36.880 as probably about eleven without doing any real analysis because 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:39.240 I don't think real analysis works with the Patriots because 0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:41.520