Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is going to be back in the White House.
Speaker 3: The task before us will not be easy, but I
Speaker 3: will bring every ounce of energy, spirit and fight that
Speaker 3: I have in my soul to the job that you've
Speaker 3: entrusted to me. This is a great job. There's no
Speaker 3: job like this. This is the most important job in
Speaker 3: the world.
Speaker 2: But with Trump fully focused on his America First agenda,
Speaker 2: how will African nations fare on the president's foreign policy
Speaker 2: radar and will China continue to fill the vacuum that's
Speaker 2: left behind.
Speaker 3: I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe,
Speaker 3: and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve.
Speaker 3: This will truly be the Golden Age of America. This
Speaker 3: is a magnificent victory for the American people that will
Speaker 3: allow us to make America great again.
Speaker 2: On this episode of the Next Africa Podcast, we'll look
Speaker 2: at what another four years of President Trump will mean
Speaker 2: for the US relationship with the continent, and with Africa
Speaker 2: already low on the list of US priorities, will African
Speaker 2: leaders see much of a difference at all. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja,
Speaker 2: and this is the Next Africa podcast, bringing you one
Speaker 2: story each week from the continent, driving the future of
Speaker 2: global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining
Speaker 2: us this week is Neil Munshi, Bloomberg's deputy Managing editor
Speaker 2: for Africa, and also Peter Martin are Africa and Middle
Speaker 2: East reporter based in Nairobi.
Speaker 4: Hello to both of you.
Speaker 2: Hopefully you've gotten some sleep and you've been able to
Speaker 2: digest this all.
Speaker 4: Let's just start here.
Speaker 2: I mean, unlike in twenty twenty, a clear result in
Speaker 2: the election came quite quickly.
Speaker 4: Neil, maybe we start with you.
Speaker 2: How are you seeing African leaders responding.
Speaker 4: To this victory by Trump?
Speaker 5: I think if you take a step back, like you
Speaker 5: can see in Europe, the sky is falling. Ukraine, it's
Speaker 5: a big deal. The Middle East, it's a big deal.
Speaker 5: But the truth is Africa has never been a strategic
Speaker 5: priority for any American administration, So the reaction in Africa
Speaker 5: is not going to be as big as it is
Speaker 5: in many of those other places. Right, and that's what
Speaker 5: we're seeing. Congratulations mister Trump, but not sort of great
Speaker 5: joy or great outrage the way you might see in
Speaker 5: other parts of the world. Because Democrat or Republican, They
Speaker 5: don't tend to treat Africa as a strategic priority.
Speaker 2: Is there anything, though, that we can glean from Trump's
Speaker 2: first time in office about his policy towards Africa. I mean,
Speaker 2: we've heard some rhetoric about how he'd sometimes just tribes
Speaker 2: emerging economies. I mean, did he pay much attention to
Speaker 2: the continent during his first administration.
Speaker 5: None at all. Basically, besides the infamous Country's comment, he
Speaker 5: was basically indifferent to Africa or dismissive. And I think
Speaker 5: the change that we'll see from Biden Trump is rhetorically
Speaker 5: in that sense. But also I mean there's an argument
Speaker 5: to be made that Trump will be more transactional. Right,
Speaker 5: that's kind of a cliche about him. US policy towards
Speaker 5: Africa has long been pretty transactional, right. The Biden administration's
Speaker 5: biggest strategic gain was the Lobito Corridor, which takes Zambian
Speaker 5: copper to the coast of Angola. Right, it was about
Speaker 5: critical minerals encounter in China. I think that they're likely
Speaker 5: to ramp up the counter in China part and probably
Speaker 5: ramp down. The Biden administration did some focus on democracy,
Speaker 5: on human rights in countering Russian influence, which a put
Speaker 5: and friendly Trump administration is likely to ramp down.
Speaker 4: And Peter, I mean, what's your take on this.
Speaker 6: It's important to remember that Trump personally wasn't particularly interested
Speaker 6: in Africa engaged on the topic, but there were a
Speaker 6: lot of people around him who were deeply passionate about
Speaker 6: engaging in a global competition for influence with China, whether
Speaker 6: that was the Indo Pacific, in Africa and Latin America.
Speaker 6: That really gave focus to the way that they thought
Speaker 6: about the developing world in general, including Africa. So they're
Speaker 6: going to want to see push back against any potential
Speaker 6: Chinese basis. They're going to want to work to secure
Speaker 6: critical minerals, push back on perceived PSC misinformation campaigns. So
Speaker 6: that's going to be one really clear focus on Russia.
Speaker 1: I'd say it's a little bit more ambiguous.
Speaker 6: Again, some of those national security figures around Trump, you know,
Speaker 6: John Bolton is a good example in the first Trump administration,
Speaker 6: very critical of Russia's role in Africa. Trump himself famously
Speaker 6: perhaps is less concerned about Russia's global role, and so
Speaker 6: I think it sort of remains to be seen how
Speaker 6: that will play out. One other area where there may
Speaker 6: be some shift in policy from the Biden administration comes
Speaker 6: to foreign aid funding. So John Bolton, when he unveiled
Speaker 6: the Trump administration's Africa strategy, talked about the need to
Speaker 6: end indiscriminate funding of foreign aid and to use US
Speaker 6: overseas development money in a much more targeted and strategic
Speaker 6: way that supported US foreign policy. And so I think
Speaker 6: that that's one area where we'll probably see change.
Speaker 5: One thing, just to add to Pete's point about kind
Speaker 5: of funding and that kind of thing, is, you know,
Speaker 5: we had a great story this week from one of
Speaker 5: our reporters about US evangelical funding for anti LGBTQ laws
Speaker 5: in Africa, and there is a decent chance we see that.
Speaker 2: Ramp up, and it would obviously be targeted to a
Speaker 2: lot of the countries that have pursued a lot of
Speaker 2: that legislation, right.
Speaker 5: Yeah, And I'm not saying that would come from the
Speaker 5: government itself, right, But whereas a democratic administration would try
Speaker 5: to counter that or look a stance at that kind
Speaker 5: of funding. If you look at you know, Trump administration
Speaker 5: policies that are probably much more likely to look kindly
Speaker 5: on that kind of funding.
Speaker 1: The other area that may be different.
Speaker 6: There is you know, the Biden administration has been quite
Speaker 6: openly critical of countries like Uganda, which have had strong
Speaker 6: anti LGBTQ legislation. Former Trump officials I've spoken to suggest
Speaker 6: that that strain in US foreign policy, that kind of
Speaker 6: pro human rights, anti discrimination strain, will be removed.
Speaker 1: Two constituencies in the Republican Party that that plays to.
Speaker 1: One is the Christian right, which have a moral objection.
Speaker 6: To those kinds of US policies in Africa, and the
Speaker 6: second is kind of the strategist.
Speaker 1: We believe that it's counter bridge the.
Speaker 6: US interests to tell what are oftentimes very Christian and
Speaker 6: conservative populations how to conduct their internal affairs.
Speaker 1: So I think that'll be one shift.
Speaker 4: Well, stick with us, both of you.
Speaker 2: We're going to talk more about what a Trump presidency
Speaker 2: could potentially mean for the continent, dig into that a
Speaker 2: little bit more when we come back.
Speaker 4: Welcome back today on the podcast.
Speaker 2: We are looking ahead to a new term for President
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and what that potentially could mean for Africans.
Speaker 2: So Neil Munch and Peter Martin are with us. Neil Trump,
Speaker 2: as you were just mentioning, he has famously said that
Speaker 2: all Nations comments, and he's also made comments.
Speaker 4: About the DRC.
Speaker 2: Have you seen in any media on the continent these
Speaker 2: comments really reverberating and concerning leaders maybe in the region.
Speaker 5: The recent kind of you know, when he was talking
Speaker 5: about the migrants are coming from the Congo thing, I
Speaker 5: don't think that really did, to be honest. I think
Speaker 5: when he was president and he said all countries, that
Speaker 5: was the kind of thing that did at the time.
Speaker 5: But again, you know, African leaders, just like leaders everywhere,
Speaker 5: practice real politic and in the end they deal with
Speaker 5: the American president they have.
Speaker 6: There are quite a few African leaders who like the
Speaker 6: Trump emphasis on trade and investment over AID. It's something
Speaker 6: if you ask them about Chinese policies and the continent
Speaker 6: where they'll praise them and say, look, we want to
Speaker 6: be an investment destination. We don't want an objective Western sympathy.
Speaker 6: So some of that rhetoric may go down quite well.
Speaker 5: And I mean they also don't lectures on human rights. Yeah,
Speaker 5: the African leaders, right, that's why they preferred the Chinese
Speaker 5: model to the American model. Also because the Chinese model
Speaker 5: came with a lot of money.
Speaker 2: Let's just stick on China and Russia and the influence
Speaker 2: that they have had on the continent.
Speaker 4: Potentially, if we do see.
Speaker 2: The US receding a bit from their own relations to
Speaker 2: the continent, we could see these two countries really stepping
Speaker 2: up what it is that they're doing. I mean, I
Speaker 2: wonder from both of your perspectives, if you see that
Speaker 2: changing in the near term in a significant way.
Speaker 5: One thing to keep in mind is that like China
Speaker 5: and Russia on two different tiers. Right, China is by
Speaker 5: far and away the most influential foreign country in Africa. Right.
Speaker 5: They poured tens of billions of dollars into the continent
Speaker 5: over years and years, built a lot of infrastructure, a
Speaker 5: lot of projects all over the continent. Russia, its role
Speaker 5: on the continent gets kind of magnified because the things
Speaker 5: they do, you are so kind of extraordinary, right, Mercenaries
Speaker 5: and kind of the Wagner Group is quite like a
Speaker 5: you know, a catchy kind of thing. But they don't
Speaker 5: have that kind of influence, and it's not likely even
Speaker 5: under a Trump administration that they would rise to the
Speaker 5: level of China. African countries want investment, and they want
Speaker 5: to build their economies, develop their economies and create jobs.
Speaker 5: For their people, and China is the only one who's
Speaker 5: come to the table with the kind of money that
Speaker 5: could make that happen. If the US recedes from what
Speaker 5: is already not much engagement, it's likely that sort of
Speaker 5: middle tier powers who are already kind of coming into
Speaker 5: the continent, like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India,
Speaker 5: are the ones who are going to rise and influence
Speaker 5: some continent because they are coming with money, with investment.
Speaker 2: Finally, to both of you, I mean, what are the
Speaker 2: key moments now you're paying close attention to. I remember
Speaker 2: just a few weeks ago we were talking about the
Speaker 2: significance of President Biden's.
Speaker 4: Trip to Angola. I believe that's still happening.
Speaker 2: But what is it that you're watching closely for as
Speaker 2: it pertains to US and Africa relations.
Speaker 6: I mean, I think the key thing to watch for
Speaker 6: will be the appointment as they take shape. Who's going
Speaker 6: to have the helm at the State Department that thed
Speaker 6: perhaps some of the aid and Trade Agency names coming out,
Speaker 6: and then also some of the people at the sort
Speaker 6: of assistant secretary level. If you have a Mike Pompeo
Speaker 6: type figure in the State Department, who's very, very focused
Speaker 6: on strategic competition with China. Then I think we can
Speaker 6: say that that's going to be the overriding focus of
Speaker 6: Africa policy under Trump. So those appointments are really crucial.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 5: The other thing we'll be watching is trade. Like I
Speaker 5: said earlier, Africa doesn't have a ton of trade with
Speaker 5: the US compared to other parts of the world, but
Speaker 5: there is a preferential trade agreement for some countries and
Speaker 5: exporters called the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act that's up
Speaker 5: for renewal in September, and so given Trump's reputation as
Speaker 5: a trade warrior, there is some angst around the renewal
Speaker 5: of that agreement and what it will entail.
Speaker 2: And you can of course read our full coverage of
Speaker 2: the US election across Bloomberg platforms. Here's a few other
Speaker 2: stories we're following this week in the region. Mozenbek's opposition leader,
Speaker 2: whose supporters have shaken the Southeast African nation with protests
Speaker 2: over last month's disputed election, abandoned plans to return for
Speaker 2: a final march on Thursday. Bonanzio Mondlane, the fiery former
Speaker 2: lawmaker and pastor, had earlier pledge to lead a protest
Speaker 2: in the capital Maputo. He's called on his supporters to
Speaker 2: occupy the city to back his claim that he won
Speaker 2: last month's presidential election.
Speaker 4: After results showed ruling.
Speaker 2: Party candidate Daniel Chappo triumphed with almost seventy one percent
Speaker 2: of the vote, and South Africa's national government said it
Speaker 2: will for the first time ask private companies to help
Speaker 2: revive dilapidated buildings it owns in inner cities in the
Speaker 2: country's biggest urban centers.
Speaker 4: The measure comes as concern.
Speaker 2: Bills about the fate of the central districts of cities
Speaker 2: such as Durban and Johannesburg, which have become bywords for
Speaker 2: urban dysfunction.
Speaker 4: In both centers, high rises.
Speaker 2: And other buildings, many of them owned by the state,
Speaker 2: have been abandoned and taken over by squatters who are
Speaker 2: extorted by armed gangs. And you can follow these stories
Speaker 2: across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. Will put a
Speaker 2: link to that in the show notes. This program was
Speaker 2: produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to follow and review
Speaker 2: this show wherever you usually get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer
Speaker 2: zabazone Jet. Thanks as always for listening,