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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is going to be back in the White House.

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Speaker 3: The task before us will not be easy, but I

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Speaker 3: will bring every ounce of energy, spirit and fight that

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Speaker 3: I have in my soul to the job that you've

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Speaker 3: entrusted to me. This is a great job. There's no

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Speaker 3: job like this. This is the most important job in

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Speaker 3: the world.

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Speaker 2: But with Trump fully focused on his America First agenda,

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Speaker 2: how will African nations fare on the president's foreign policy

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Speaker 2: radar and will China continue to fill the vacuum that's

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Speaker 2: left behind.

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Speaker 3: I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe,

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Speaker 3: and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve.

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Speaker 3: This will truly be the Golden Age of America. This

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Speaker 3: is a magnificent victory for the American people that will

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Speaker 3: allow us to make America great again.

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Speaker 2: On this episode of the Next Africa Podcast, we'll look

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Speaker 2: at what another four years of President Trump will mean

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Speaker 2: for the US relationship with the continent, and with Africa

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Speaker 2: already low on the list of US priorities, will African

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Speaker 2: leaders see much of a difference at all. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja,

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Speaker 2: and this is the Next Africa podcast, bringing you one

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Speaker 2: story each week from the continent, driving the future of

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Speaker 2: global growth with the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining

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Speaker 2: us this week is Neil Munshi, Bloomberg's deputy Managing editor

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Speaker 2: for Africa, and also Peter Martin are Africa and Middle

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Speaker 2: East reporter based in Nairobi.

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Speaker 4: Hello to both of you.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully you've gotten some sleep and you've been able to

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Speaker 2: digest this all.

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Speaker 4: Let's just start here.

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Speaker 2: I mean, unlike in twenty twenty, a clear result in

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Speaker 2: the election came quite quickly.

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Speaker 4: Neil, maybe we start with you.

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Speaker 2: How are you seeing African leaders responding.

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Speaker 4: To this victory by Trump?

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Speaker 5: I think if you take a step back, like you

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Speaker 5: can see in Europe, the sky is falling. Ukraine, it's

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Speaker 5: a big deal. The Middle East, it's a big deal.

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Speaker 5: But the truth is Africa has never been a strategic

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Speaker 5: priority for any American administration, So the reaction in Africa

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Speaker 5: is not going to be as big as it is

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Speaker 5: in many of those other places. Right, and that's what

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Speaker 5: we're seeing. Congratulations mister Trump, but not sort of great

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Speaker 5: joy or great outrage the way you might see in

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Speaker 5: other parts of the world. Because Democrat or Republican, They

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Speaker 5: don't tend to treat Africa as a strategic priority.

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Speaker 2: Is there anything, though, that we can glean from Trump's

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Speaker 2: first time in office about his policy towards Africa. I mean,

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Speaker 2: we've heard some rhetoric about how he'd sometimes just tribes

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Speaker 2: emerging economies. I mean, did he pay much attention to

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Speaker 2: the continent during his first administration.

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Speaker 5: None at all. Basically, besides the infamous Country's comment, he

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Speaker 5: was basically indifferent to Africa or dismissive. And I think

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Speaker 5: the change that we'll see from Biden Trump is rhetorically

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Speaker 5: in that sense. But also I mean there's an argument

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Speaker 5: to be made that Trump will be more transactional. Right,

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Speaker 5: that's kind of a cliche about him. US policy towards

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Speaker 5: Africa has long been pretty transactional, right. The Biden administration's

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Speaker 5: biggest strategic gain was the Lobito Corridor, which takes Zambian

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Speaker 5: copper to the coast of Angola. Right, it was about

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Speaker 5: critical minerals encounter in China. I think that they're likely

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Speaker 5: to ramp up the counter in China part and probably

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Speaker 5: ramp down. The Biden administration did some focus on democracy,

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Speaker 5: on human rights in countering Russian influence, which a put

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Speaker 5: and friendly Trump administration is likely to ramp down.

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Speaker 4: And Peter, I mean, what's your take on this.

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Speaker 6: It's important to remember that Trump personally wasn't particularly interested

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Speaker 6: in Africa engaged on the topic, but there were a

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Speaker 6: lot of people around him who were deeply passionate about

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Speaker 6: engaging in a global competition for influence with China, whether

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Speaker 6: that was the Indo Pacific, in Africa and Latin America.

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Speaker 6: That really gave focus to the way that they thought

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Speaker 6: about the developing world in general, including Africa. So they're

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Speaker 6: going to want to see push back against any potential

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Speaker 6: Chinese basis. They're going to want to work to secure

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Speaker 6: critical minerals, push back on perceived PSC misinformation campaigns. So

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Speaker 6: that's going to be one really clear focus on Russia.

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Speaker 1: I'd say it's a little bit more ambiguous.

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Speaker 6: Again, some of those national security figures around Trump, you know,

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Speaker 6: John Bolton is a good example in the first Trump administration,

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Speaker 6: very critical of Russia's role in Africa. Trump himself famously

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Speaker 6: perhaps is less concerned about Russia's global role, and so

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Speaker 6: I think it sort of remains to be seen how

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Speaker 6: that will play out. One other area where there may

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Speaker 6: be some shift in policy from the Biden administration comes

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Speaker 6: to foreign aid funding. So John Bolton, when he unveiled

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Speaker 6: the Trump administration's Africa strategy, talked about the need to

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Speaker 6: end indiscriminate funding of foreign aid and to use US

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Speaker 6: overseas development money in a much more targeted and strategic

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Speaker 6: way that supported US foreign policy. And so I think

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Speaker 6: that that's one area where we'll probably see change.

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Speaker 5: One thing, just to add to Pete's point about kind

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Speaker 5: of funding and that kind of thing, is, you know,

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Speaker 5: we had a great story this week from one of

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Speaker 5: our reporters about US evangelical funding for anti LGBTQ laws

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Speaker 5: in Africa, and there is a decent chance we see that.

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Speaker 2: Ramp up, and it would obviously be targeted to a

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Speaker 2: lot of the countries that have pursued a lot of

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Speaker 2: that legislation, right.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, And I'm not saying that would come from the

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Speaker 5: government itself, right, But whereas a democratic administration would try

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Speaker 5: to counter that or look a stance at that kind

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Speaker 5: of funding. If you look at you know, Trump administration

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Speaker 5: policies that are probably much more likely to look kindly

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Speaker 5: on that kind of funding.

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Speaker 1: The other area that may be different.

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Speaker 6: There is you know, the Biden administration has been quite

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Speaker 6: openly critical of countries like Uganda, which have had strong

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Speaker 6: anti LGBTQ legislation. Former Trump officials I've spoken to suggest

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Speaker 6: that that strain in US foreign policy, that kind of

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Speaker 6: pro human rights, anti discrimination strain, will be removed.

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Speaker 1: Two constituencies in the Republican Party that that plays to.

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Speaker 1: One is the Christian right, which have a moral objection.

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Speaker 6: To those kinds of US policies in Africa, and the

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Speaker 6: second is kind of the strategist.

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Speaker 1: We believe that it's counter bridge the.

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Speaker 6: US interests to tell what are oftentimes very Christian and

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Speaker 6: conservative populations how to conduct their internal affairs.

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Speaker 1: So I think that'll be one shift.

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Speaker 4: Well, stick with us, both of you.

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Speaker 2: We're going to talk more about what a Trump presidency

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Speaker 2: could potentially mean for the continent, dig into that a

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Speaker 2: little bit more when we come back.

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Speaker 4: Welcome back today on the podcast.

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Speaker 2: We are looking ahead to a new term for President

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump and what that potentially could mean for Africans.

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Speaker 2: So Neil Munch and Peter Martin are with us. Neil Trump,

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Speaker 2: as you were just mentioning, he has famously said that

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Speaker 2: all Nations comments, and he's also made comments.

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Speaker 4: About the DRC.

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Speaker 2: Have you seen in any media on the continent these

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Speaker 2: comments really reverberating and concerning leaders maybe in the region.

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Speaker 5: The recent kind of you know, when he was talking

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Speaker 5: about the migrants are coming from the Congo thing, I

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Speaker 5: don't think that really did, to be honest. I think

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Speaker 5: when he was president and he said all countries, that

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Speaker 5: was the kind of thing that did at the time.

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Speaker 5: But again, you know, African leaders, just like leaders everywhere,

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Speaker 5: practice real politic and in the end they deal with

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Speaker 5: the American president they have.

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Speaker 6: There are quite a few African leaders who like the

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Speaker 6: Trump emphasis on trade and investment over AID. It's something

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Speaker 6: if you ask them about Chinese policies and the continent

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Speaker 6: where they'll praise them and say, look, we want to

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Speaker 6: be an investment destination. We don't want an objective Western sympathy.

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Speaker 6: So some of that rhetoric may go down quite well.

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Speaker 5: And I mean they also don't lectures on human rights. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: the African leaders, right, that's why they preferred the Chinese

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Speaker 5: model to the American model. Also because the Chinese model

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Speaker 5: came with a lot of money.

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Speaker 2: Let's just stick on China and Russia and the influence

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Speaker 2: that they have had on the continent.

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Speaker 4: Potentially, if we do see.

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Speaker 2: The US receding a bit from their own relations to

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Speaker 2: the continent, we could see these two countries really stepping

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Speaker 2: up what it is that they're doing. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: wonder from both of your perspectives, if you see that

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Speaker 2: changing in the near term in a significant way.

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Speaker 5: One thing to keep in mind is that like China

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Speaker 5: and Russia on two different tiers. Right, China is by

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Speaker 5: far and away the most influential foreign country in Africa. Right.

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Speaker 5: They poured tens of billions of dollars into the continent

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Speaker 5: over years and years, built a lot of infrastructure, a

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Speaker 5: lot of projects all over the continent. Russia, its role

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Speaker 5: on the continent gets kind of magnified because the things

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Speaker 5: they do, you are so kind of extraordinary, right, Mercenaries

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Speaker 5: and kind of the Wagner Group is quite like a

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Speaker 5: you know, a catchy kind of thing. But they don't

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Speaker 5: have that kind of influence, and it's not likely even

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Speaker 5: under a Trump administration that they would rise to the

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Speaker 5: level of China. African countries want investment, and they want

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Speaker 5: to build their economies, develop their economies and create jobs.

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Speaker 5: For their people, and China is the only one who's

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Speaker 5: come to the table with the kind of money that

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Speaker 5: could make that happen. If the US recedes from what

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Speaker 5: is already not much engagement, it's likely that sort of

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Speaker 5: middle tier powers who are already kind of coming into

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Speaker 5: the continent, like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India,

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Speaker 5: are the ones who are going to rise and influence

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Speaker 5: some continent because they are coming with money, with investment.

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Speaker 2: Finally, to both of you, I mean, what are the

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Speaker 2: key moments now you're paying close attention to. I remember

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Speaker 2: just a few weeks ago we were talking about the

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Speaker 2: significance of President Biden's.

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Speaker 4: Trip to Angola. I believe that's still happening.

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Speaker 2: But what is it that you're watching closely for as

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Speaker 2: it pertains to US and Africa relations.

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Speaker 6: I mean, I think the key thing to watch for

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Speaker 6: will be the appointment as they take shape. Who's going

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Speaker 6: to have the helm at the State Department that thed

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Speaker 6: perhaps some of the aid and Trade Agency names coming out,

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Speaker 6: and then also some of the people at the sort

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Speaker 6: of assistant secretary level. If you have a Mike Pompeo

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Speaker 6: type figure in the State Department, who's very, very focused

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Speaker 6: on strategic competition with China. Then I think we can

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Speaker 6: say that that's going to be the overriding focus of

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Speaker 6: Africa policy under Trump. So those appointments are really crucial.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 5: The other thing we'll be watching is trade. Like I

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Speaker 5: said earlier, Africa doesn't have a ton of trade with

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Speaker 5: the US compared to other parts of the world, but

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Speaker 5: there is a preferential trade agreement for some countries and

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Speaker 5: exporters called the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act that's up

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Speaker 5: for renewal in September, and so given Trump's reputation as

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Speaker 5: a trade warrior, there is some angst around the renewal

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Speaker 5: of that agreement and what it will entail.

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Speaker 2: And you can of course read our full coverage of

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Speaker 2: the US election across Bloomberg platforms. Here's a few other

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Speaker 2: stories we're following this week in the region. Mozenbek's opposition leader,

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Speaker 2: whose supporters have shaken the Southeast African nation with protests

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Speaker 2: over last month's disputed election, abandoned plans to return for

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Speaker 2: a final march on Thursday. Bonanzio Mondlane, the fiery former

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Speaker 2: lawmaker and pastor, had earlier pledge to lead a protest

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Speaker 2: in the capital Maputo. He's called on his supporters to

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Speaker 2: occupy the city to back his claim that he won

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Speaker 2: last month's presidential election.

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Speaker 4: After results showed ruling.

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Speaker 2: Party candidate Daniel Chappo triumphed with almost seventy one percent

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Speaker 2: of the vote, and South Africa's national government said it

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Speaker 2: will for the first time ask private companies to help

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Speaker 2: revive dilapidated buildings it owns in inner cities in the

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Speaker 2: country's biggest urban centers.

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Speaker 4: The measure comes as concern.

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Speaker 2: Bills about the fate of the central districts of cities

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Speaker 2: such as Durban and Johannesburg, which have become bywords for

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Speaker 2: urban dysfunction.

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Speaker 4: In both centers, high rises.

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Speaker 2: And other buildings, many of them owned by the state,

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Speaker 2: have been abandoned and taken over by squatters who are

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Speaker 2: extorted by armed gangs. And you can follow these stories

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Speaker 2: across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. Will put a

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Speaker 2: link to that in the show notes. This program was

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Speaker 2: produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to follow and review

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Speaker 2: this show wherever you usually get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer

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Speaker 2: zabazone Jet. Thanks as always for listening,