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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host today Brendan Laschen joined by Shanzarello and

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward.

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Speaker 3: That means are UFC betting preview.

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Speaker 1: Please subscribe, rate and review because every Friday we're here, myself, Shonzarello,

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward giving out some underdogs, props and best bets

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Speaker 1: around the UFC weekend. This weekend UFC Mexico at CDMX

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Speaker 1: in Mexico City.

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Speaker 3: Well weave our way through.

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Speaker 1: If you're new to the podcast, we've been around now

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks for this year, for this year's cards,

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Speaker 1: and uh we'll hit the main event, fight the night

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Speaker 1: for Sean and Billy, find some dogs, find some props,

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Speaker 1: and then leave with the best bet, final bet. You

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Speaker 1: know the inside joke at this point if you have

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Speaker 1: tuned in already, so, without further ado, the Battle of

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Speaker 1: the Brandons Brandon Moreno, Brandon Roy Val, Sean Zarrillo is

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Speaker 1: the featured main event. Looking at the line, how would

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Speaker 1: you evaluate the line, and then how would you like

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Speaker 1: to bet the fight is these two fought in the past.

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Speaker 4: Roy Val had his shoulder dislocated. The fight ended early

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Speaker 4: as a result of that shoulder dislocation. But I think

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Speaker 4: since they last fought, Marino has made the more substantial

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Speaker 4: improvements as a fighter, and I think he has the

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Speaker 4: advantage pretty much everywhere in this matchup. He's the better striker,

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Speaker 4: both the better boxer and the better kicker. He's the

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Speaker 4: much better wrestler, and I think that's the biggest key

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Speaker 4: to this fight when he decides to wrestle, When he

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Speaker 4: decides the offensive wrestling offensively wrestled, I do think he

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Speaker 4: can hold roy Val down for that in stretches or

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Speaker 4: just land multiple takedowns in each round. The problem with

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Speaker 4: Brandon Marino, and I should also mention he's super durable.

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Speaker 4: He's a more durable fighter as well, so you know

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Speaker 4: the physical advantages, the skills advantages technique. I think all

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Speaker 4: favorite moreno roy Vall's advantages, reach advantage and volume. Potentially

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Speaker 4: over twenty five minutes if they just strike it out,

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Speaker 4: I think he could potentially pull away on volume over Marino.

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Speaker 4: But when Marino decides to wrestle, I think he's going

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Speaker 4: to look like a big favorite in this fight once

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Speaker 4: he gets on top and Royval struggles to defend takedowns

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Speaker 4: forty percent takedown defense in the UFC. The one issue

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Speaker 4: with Moreno is fight IQ, and he doesn't always give

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Speaker 4: himself the easiest path to victory or follow the pass

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Speaker 4: the least resistance. I think there's a chance that he

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Speaker 4: strikes this out longer than he should. Where if he

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Speaker 4: does as I said, proactively wrestle, I think he's going

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Speaker 4: to have an easier time of it and cover his price.

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Speaker 4: So to me, this matchup Moreno Russell's proactively should look

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Speaker 4: like a minus four hundred favorite or more. I projected

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Speaker 4: this line at minus three twenty. I think he's a

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Speaker 4: safe parlay piece. Anythink minus three hundred or better. Probably

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Speaker 4: even considered laying it too. In terms of other value

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Speaker 4: in this fight, the fight to go over three and

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Speaker 4: a half rounds to reach a decision. We'll talk a

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Speaker 4: little bit more about the elevation later and the cardiodynamics

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Speaker 4: of some of these fights. And you know my skepticism

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Speaker 4: of betting fights to reach a decision as opposed to

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Speaker 4: betting them just to go over, because I think we

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Speaker 4: could see some finishes on this card that happened in

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Speaker 4: the final couple of minutes of these fights. But in

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Speaker 4: terms of the main event, like Brandon, Marino is a

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Speaker 4: parlay piece. Parlayed them up with another piece in the

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Speaker 4: next fight that we will talk about, so they'll get

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Speaker 4: to that in a moment. And then one o their

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Speaker 4: favorite I like on this card faris m. I'm considering

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Speaker 4: parlaying Marino with him two. Probably not going to get

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Speaker 4: to that fight later, so I'll just talk about it briefly.

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Speaker 4: ZM against plays play us. I think, like roy Val,

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Speaker 4: it's like a ten to twenty percent chance. You know,

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Speaker 4: they have to meet their wing condition of finding a

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Speaker 4: finished inside the distance play as a knee bar specialist.

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Speaker 4: There's a chance he could get it in a scramble.

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Speaker 4: But other than that, I think ZAM wins the fight.

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Speaker 4: And I think with the Marino fight, other than roy

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Speaker 4: Val hitting something, finding a guillotee, finding a moment where

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Speaker 4: he stuns Marino hurts him, is able to finish the fight.

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Speaker 4: I think Moreno is largely winning minutes and controlling the

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Speaker 4: pace here. So Marino, as I said, you could parlay

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Speaker 4: Am about minus three hundred. I think he's pretty Safeer

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Speaker 4: Saturday Night.

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Speaker 1: You're analysis just brought me back to last last summer

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Speaker 1: when you parlayed a piece of UFC with the London Series.

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Speaker 1: In baseball, I was wondering you were going to bring

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Speaker 1: up the Dodgers of the Padres in a spring training

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Speaker 1: game as a parlay combination.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, not quite ready to parlaying trainings games yet

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Speaker 4: with these lineups we get thrown out there. But maybe

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Speaker 4: later on in the spring, by the time we get

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Speaker 4: to the next pay per view, maybe, Oh, a UFC

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Speaker 4: baseball parlay gone on.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna hold you to that. I couldn't help it.

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward authors the UFC Luck Ratings over at Action

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Speaker 1: Network Action Network dot com, And Billy.

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Speaker 3: You identify, uh, you have an identification on.

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Speaker 1: This fight based on the line that roy Vall is

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Speaker 1: slightly undervalued right now looking at the sports book bet

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Speaker 1: MGM Royvall right around plus two twenty moreno minus two ninety.

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Speaker 1: So are you still in the same boat with roy

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Speaker 1: Ball being undervalued? And I guess that sort of counters

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Speaker 1: Zarillo but not quite.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's not a strong take. I think

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Speaker 5: this one is pretty close to right. We're gonna talk

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Speaker 5: about the elevation a lot here. We're also going to

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Speaker 5: talk about all these there's three fights on this card

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Speaker 5: that are rebooked because something weird happened at a different

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Speaker 5: event that they're bringing back this one. You know, Moreno

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Speaker 5: was winning the first fight. He wasn't dominating, he wasn't

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Speaker 5: about to finish him or anything, but like he was

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Speaker 5: looking better than Royval. I think the one thing that

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Speaker 5: roy Val has going for him is he's a little

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Speaker 5: bit more aggressive. He hunts the finish a little bit harder.

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Speaker 5: He's coming forward more. If he's gonna win, I think

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Speaker 5: he's gonna do it inside the distance. He almost has to,

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Speaker 5: so getting that at plus four hundred if I had

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Speaker 5: to beat this one. Honestly, if this weren't a main event,

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Speaker 5: I probably wouldn't really be betting it or talking about

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Speaker 5: it at all. I think the books are more or

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Speaker 5: less right. I do want to point out it's a

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Speaker 5: little bit interesting with the cardio dynamic at elevation. Royval

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Speaker 5: trains in Denver factory acts, Moreno trains in Las Vegas

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Speaker 5: at sea level. But Moreno was originally supposed to fight

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Speaker 5: a different opponent. Royvel's coming in about four or five weeks.

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Speaker 5: Notice that's not super short notice, and you can get

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Speaker 5: in cardio shape in that time. But this is gonna

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Speaker 5: be five rounds at you know, seven thousand feet elevation

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Speaker 5: cardio in four or five weeks, I don't know. So

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Speaker 5: it's more of a if you think Royval is gonna

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Speaker 5: win it, it almost certainly needs to be inside the distance.

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Speaker 5: And that's before we even talk about how the judges

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Speaker 5: are going to respond to the Mexican fighters here, which

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Speaker 5: we have to assume that you know, moreno does anything,

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Speaker 5: the crowd's going to lose their mind that's going to

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Speaker 5: influence the judges. We're gonna talk about that with I

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Speaker 5: think a couple other fights as we get down the

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Speaker 5: stretch here. So all those factors don't love the bet,

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Speaker 5: but you know, it's a little bit sprinkle at plus

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Speaker 5: four hundred royvll inside the distance that should be closer

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Speaker 5: to his money line.

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Speaker 4: I'm glad you brought up the short notice, Billy, because Pantosia,

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Speaker 4: or I should say Rovel, also fought Alexandra Pertosa at

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Speaker 4: USC two ninety six, which is in mid December. So

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Speaker 4: if you didn't immediately go back into camp after that fight,

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Speaker 4: then he took this fight on short notice. How much

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Speaker 4: did he actually train in the past eight weeks? So

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Speaker 4: it's not not only the short notice nature. He also

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Speaker 4: had a fight two months ago, you know, and then

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Speaker 4: took a fight on short notice. Like I said, if

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Speaker 4: you didn't get right back in the training room, how

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Speaker 4: much has he really trained, you know, in the past

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Speaker 4: eight weeks.

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Speaker 5: Although I will say my assumption is always and this

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Speaker 5: is probably overfitting my personal experience that coming off a loss,

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Speaker 5: guys are going to be right back in the gym.

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Speaker 5: Coming off a win, they're probably going to take some

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Speaker 5: time celebrate, you know, catch those fight of the night

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Speaker 5: performance bonuses all that. So I'm not entirely worried about it,

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Speaker 5: because it's not like you took it last week. He

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Speaker 5: had four or five weeks. But yeah, it's a good

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Speaker 5: point that that's another factor. You know, if he was

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Speaker 5: banged up, even if he wanted to train, he might

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Speaker 5: not have been. So there's a lot going into it.

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Speaker 1: Just before that fight, we've got Yayi Rodriguez and Brian Ortega.

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Speaker 1: The fights are streaming this week on ESPN Plus in

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Speaker 1: Mexico City, so get the nap in on Saturday if

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Speaker 1: you want to stay up late, if you need the

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Speaker 1: nap on the East Coast. Okay, So Zarrillo Rodriguez the

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Speaker 1: favorite at minus one fifty or Tega plus one twenty

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Speaker 1: on the money line. Same question, how do you identify

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Speaker 1: what you might like in the fight, and based on

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Speaker 1: that that probably comes from how do you see the

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Speaker 1: fight unfolding?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, another fight that you know previously happened ended via injury.

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Speaker 4: I was at the fight on Long Island. This was

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Speaker 4: headlining in the card, and that's why this fight is

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Speaker 4: booked for five rounds because these two were supposed to

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Speaker 4: have a main event last time. The winner will probably

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Speaker 4: get Iliotaporia in Spain for the featherweight title. So definitely

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Speaker 4: some big implications here between Rodriguez and Ortega. Yeah, yeer

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Speaker 4: is the better striker or Taga the better grappler. And

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Speaker 4: I do think this is a pretty binary fight. Not

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Speaker 4: that Ortega can't strike, but his striking defense is horrible

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Speaker 4: and he seems to not be reacting as well to

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Speaker 4: absorbing damage as he was earlier in his career. I mean,

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Speaker 4: he used to be a Mexican zombie like he was

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Speaker 4: TKZ and just looking to walk through damage and eventually

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Speaker 4: get his hands on people and finish them with the grappling.

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Speaker 4: Now the way that first fight did play out with

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Speaker 4: Ya Year and Ortega, Yayer was piecing him up in

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Speaker 4: the first round, but Ortego eventually got his hands on

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Speaker 4: him and it seemed like he was winning the clinch positions.

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Speaker 4: Took Yeah Year down, seemed like he was going to

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Speaker 4: progress and win the round from there, but he got

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Speaker 4: hurt v injury and you could give Yeah your credit

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Speaker 4: or not for the submission. Didn't seem like it was

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Speaker 4: something that fully locked in. Seemed like more of an accident.

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Speaker 4: But regardless, I do think this is fairly binary. I

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Speaker 4: like it to end inside the distance because it is

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Speaker 4: going five rounds at elevation minus two hundred. On that prop,

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Speaker 4: I think you could parlay that with Brandon Marino in

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Speaker 4: the main event. I think that's a fine even money

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Speaker 4: parlay to pair together. But also, like Ortekeo by submission

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Speaker 4: A plus three seventy five, I don't really get the

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Speaker 4: pricing on his knockout prop. His knockout prop is sitting

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Speaker 4: much closer to a submission prop than I think it

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Speaker 4: should be.

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Speaker 6: It's like plus six fifty plus.

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Speaker 4: Seven hundred, his submission props about plus half, you know,

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Speaker 4: half that I'd make his subprop closer to plus two fifty.

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Speaker 4: I'd put his k prop over ten to one, eleven

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Speaker 4: to one, twelve to one ground and pound tko the

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Speaker 4: only way he's getting that done. But other than that,

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Speaker 4: I think he's a big grappling advantage in this fight,

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Speaker 4: and I think if he gets the Eiger to the ground,

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Speaker 4: I think he's gonna find ways to finish. So Ortega

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Speaker 4: by submission plus three seventy five is the best number

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Speaker 4: I've found. Could also consider betting him inside the distance.

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Speaker 4: I just think the subprop is a better number. And then,

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Speaker 4: as I said, the fight to end inside the distance

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Speaker 4: at minus two hundred, if Ortega doesn't get the submission,

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Speaker 4: or as he's trying to enter to get takeouns to

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Speaker 4: find submissions, I think he's gonna absorb a lot of damage,

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Speaker 4: get beat up, maybe take a head kick, get knocked out. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: you're definitely has better kicks than he does hands. So

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Speaker 4: maybe that actually helps Ortega to a degree in terms

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Speaker 4: of getting in closer getting those entries. Just not sure

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Speaker 4: how he is, you know, in terms of his durability

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Speaker 4: to the body as opposed to the head. We've seen

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Speaker 4: him absorb like thousands of head strikes and not go down.

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Speaker 4: Maybe he eats one or two liver kicks here and folds.

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Speaker 4: We just haven't seen his body get hit nearly as

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Speaker 4: much as we have to the heads. So, like I said,

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Speaker 4: binary and inside the distance, But Ortega to win it via.

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Speaker 1: Submission, okay, And Rodriguez does have a slight height advantage Billy,

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Speaker 1: and knowing this is a five round fight, how do

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Speaker 1: you break it down?

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Speaker 3: And how would you like to bet it?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this is a really interesting fight to counter what

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Speaker 5: Sean was saying about the discrepancy between submissions and knockouts.

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Speaker 5: I that was my read on it early as well.

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Speaker 5: But Ortega has just as many TKO's in the UFC

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Speaker 5: as he does submissions. He's not, you know, only diving

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Speaker 5: for subs. He'll get top position, beat you up. I

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Speaker 5: think it's more likely that he gets a submission for

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Speaker 5: a lot of reasons, but I don't think it's all

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Speaker 5: that crazy to see him finishing it. With that said,

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Speaker 5: if he finishes it, it's on the ground, it's through grappling.

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Speaker 5: It's just what that result ends up being very interesting fight.

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Speaker 5: They're kind of like mirror images of each other in

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Speaker 5: a way. Where Ortega's striking defense is to just walk

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Speaker 5: forward and try to hit you back, and yeah, years

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Speaker 5: wrestling defense is to let you take him down and

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Speaker 5: try to throw up a submission. Neither of them are

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Speaker 5: really interested in stopping what you're trying to do. They're

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Speaker 5: just trying to pose enough of a threat that you

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Speaker 5: can't do it.

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Speaker 6: On paper.

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Speaker 5: Here, I think Ortega's style is actually kryptonite for ye

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Speaker 5: you're Rodriguez. Rodriguez likes to kick, he needs space. He's

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Speaker 5: a taekwondo guy, where they like to operate at range

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Speaker 5: and thrown out long stuff. Ortega's just storming forward the

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Speaker 5: whole fight, trying to get in your face, doesn't really

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Speaker 5: care if you hit him, just trying to make contact,

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Speaker 5: takes you down. Yeah here, doesn't really defend that that's

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Speaker 5: on paper. With him being out eighteen months with that

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Speaker 5: torn shoulder, I have my concerns with that, which is

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Speaker 5: why I'm not betting Ortega's money line.

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Speaker 6: But I do.

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Speaker 5: I think I trust his durability here. You know, we

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Speaker 5: haven't really seen him take any bad knockouts. His striking

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Speaker 5: differential is horrible if you look at the stats. A

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Speaker 5: lot of that is from fights with Max Holloway and

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Speaker 5: Alexander Volkanowski, who do that to everyone you know. But

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Speaker 5: he's never really been knocked out. He has a doctor

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Speaker 5: stoppage or a corner stoppage, one of the two, and

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Speaker 5: then a shoulder injury. So my favorite bet on this,

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Speaker 5: if you can find it at certain books, is the

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Speaker 5: finish only market. I'm Brian Ortega, which it gets refunded

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Speaker 5: if it goes to the judges. I think, like we're

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Speaker 5: talking about with the Mexican fighters, judges probably favor yeah

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Speaker 5: year kind of no matter what happens here, but they

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Speaker 5: probably should because he's going to do more striking where

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Speaker 5: our TAGA is gonna get takedowns, hunt for subs, maybe

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Speaker 5: not get them, and then a bet MGM or take

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Speaker 5: it inside the distance of plus two hundred. I'm fine

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Speaker 5: if you want to take the longer odds on the submission,

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Speaker 5: it makes sense as well, but I'd rather just get

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Speaker 5: the two to one and cover myself.

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Speaker 6: If there's a ground and pound.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I should clarify, So I take a sub prov

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Speaker 4: at plus three seventy five. The best available price beyond

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Speaker 4: that was plus three forty, and I actually saw as

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Speaker 4: the lowest plus two eighty. So it really depends on

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Speaker 4: the price, Like if it's if it's plus two hundred

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Speaker 4: versus plus two eighty, take the plus two hundred all

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Speaker 4: day on the inside. The distance getting nearly double the

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Speaker 4: price in the sub I thought was a little bit

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Speaker 4: too much even you know, plus three forty. I think

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Speaker 4: there's enough of discrepancy to play it. So just it

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Speaker 4: depends on you know, the gap and the numbers you know,

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Speaker 4: and how far a part it is. Like I said,

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Speaker 4: if it was plus two eighty, I would be on

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Speaker 4: the plus two hundred instead.

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Speaker 3: Always important to bring up the price.

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Speaker 1: The money has come into or Taga throughout the week

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Speaker 1: open drome plus one thirty five plus one forty, so

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Speaker 1: that number has come down his money line price quickly

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Speaker 1: on both fights. Uh the flightweight, the flyweight and the featherweight.

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Speaker 1: Uh the ones we just discussed.

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Speaker 3: No live angles.

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Speaker 1: Just curious if you guys identify any value because I

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Speaker 1: know we hit live bedding quite a bit last week.

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Speaker 3: Any thoughts on that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I might be interested in Artaga live

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Speaker 4: if Yayr wins the first round. It as this fight extends,

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Speaker 4: Yayra will slow down a little bit and it'll just

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Speaker 4: create more opportunities for Rotega to get his hands on

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Speaker 4: him and grapple him. You know, they're in the bigger cage. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: Year has great footwork, He's very fast. He's a really

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Speaker 4: good kickboxer. And just you know, with the first fight

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Speaker 4: that played out, when they were at distance, when ya

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Speaker 4: could kick him from range or take it looked like

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Speaker 4: he was in trouble. But the closer he got, you know,

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Speaker 4: Yeayre wasn't able to kick Hiss freely because he didn't

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Speaker 4: want to get a kick caught and get taken down.

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Speaker 4: So just watch the way that fight plays out. I

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Speaker 4: do think Ortega is going to have moments. He had

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Speaker 4: moments against Volkanovski even though he was mostly getting beaten up.

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Speaker 4: It was happening to the third or fourth round. So

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Speaker 4: Ortega finds ways to threaten his opponents. He's continually losing fights.

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Speaker 4: You just go back through his UFC run, continually losing

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Speaker 4: the first two rounds, finish his opponents in the third round.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, if Ortego's price grows, you know after round one,

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Speaker 4: after round two. He's an opportunistic furnisher. I think he's

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Speaker 4: gonna have moments, so definitely would be interested in an

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Speaker 4: entry on or take a live uh Marino ravel. I

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Speaker 4: guess given the short notice nature, probably more interested on

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Speaker 4: Marino live maybe after round one if that price moves

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Speaker 4: in at all. You know, you can get minus one

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Speaker 4: fifty on Marino after he loses round one something like that.

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Speaker 4: I'd be interested, but not as aggressive there. I think

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Speaker 4: more so Ortega just because of the dynamics of how

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Speaker 4: he usually fights and the way he doesn't give up

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Speaker 4: on himself and usually finds a way to threaten his

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Speaker 4: opponent at some point.

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Speaker 3: Anything to add Billy on the live betting component.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and this is a big you know, if I'm

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Speaker 5: able to stay awake and lucid this late into the night.

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Speaker 5: But I like the main event. I don't have a

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Speaker 5: plan going into it, I don't think. But it's one

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Speaker 5: of those where I could certainly see a situation where

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Speaker 5: roy Val looks fresher just because he transitt elevation is

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Speaker 5: used to that. I could also see where the short

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Speaker 5: notice and the recent fight make him not look the case.

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Speaker 6: So if you can.

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Speaker 5: Really be on it and look at the body language

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Speaker 5: and look how the guys are doing and maybe catch

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Speaker 5: a you know, around that swung the other way or

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Speaker 5: a price that swung the other way.

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Speaker 6: I think that's a good one.

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Speaker 5: Can't give you any kind of strategy going in, but

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Speaker 5: that's one you kind of know it when you see it.

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Speaker 5: And again, keep in mind, if you see a big

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Speaker 5: price on Moreno because it looks like he lost a

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Speaker 5: couple of rounds, he might not have actually lost those rounds.

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Speaker 5: So that's another one, like if we if it looks

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Speaker 5: like it's going to the judges, then you can get

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Speaker 5: a big price on Moreno.

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Speaker 6: That's that's where I think I would be on that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean watch like watch how the rounds play

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Speaker 4: a too, like you know the fluffy Hernandez Romankabola of

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Speaker 4: fight last week, which I Billy and I both said

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Speaker 4: about Live Billy and Kapolo Off prefight, but he love

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Speaker 4: the live angle. Hernandez won the end of round one.

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Speaker 4: He was grappling Kapa Off at the end of round

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Speaker 4: one and he was minus one ten after round one.

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Speaker 4: I mean I thought he should have been minus two

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Speaker 4: hundred at that point. I think he might even one

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Speaker 4: round one on the scorecards. I don't think he should

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Speaker 4: have won round one. I thought Coppo his body kicks

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Speaker 4: did better work, but the flow of the fight, I

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Speaker 4: thought Hernandez should have been like way more juiced up

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Speaker 4: than minus one ten at that point, even plus money.

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Speaker 4: There was another fight on that card as well that

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Speaker 4: we said about live where the fighter might have actually

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Speaker 4: won round one and you were getting a better price

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Speaker 4: after round one. Oh Is Morob didn't win the first round,

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Speaker 4: but you got like minus one ten on Morob or

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Speaker 4: even plus money on Morob after round one. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: these live angles, I think the markets continue to be

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Speaker 4: miss price and I think it's the best way to

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Speaker 4: about this sport. And we'll get to it with my

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Speaker 4: best bets later because I think it's the best way

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Speaker 4: to battle this card.

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Speaker 3: Oh excellent, te Zerillo.

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Speaker 1: Okay, before we get there, This podcast is proudly presented

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00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,159
Speaker 1: by BETMGM. Used bonus code action when signing up to

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Speaker 1: get up to one hundred and fifty eight dollars in

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00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,200
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Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

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00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,720
Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Let's discuss this

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Speaker 1: week a consensus underdog from Billy and Zerillo flyweight pre

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Speaker 1: limb go Ahead, Zilla?

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Speaker 4: Who is? It's always funny when I hear you say

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Speaker 4: Billy Zerrilla because that's my uncle's name, So it's weird.

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Speaker 6: We could we.

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Speaker 4: Combined those together, throw John and Billy, Yeah, Victor Altre Morano.

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Speaker 4: You know, Billy and I have a separate process, right

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Speaker 4: We have a shared document where we put our picks in,

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Speaker 4: but I try not to look at it until I've

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Speaker 4: finalized my card, or at least like finalized my picks

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Speaker 4: for the podcast. And sometimes I'll open it up and

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Speaker 4: we're on opposite side of the fight, and I'm like,

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Speaker 4: all right, you know, cool content. Other times I open

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Speaker 4: it up and we have the same pick and the

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Speaker 4: same underdog pick, and that really excites me because it

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Speaker 4: means we've arrived at the same conclusions in a different way,

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Speaker 4: and I think both of us are going to say

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Speaker 4: one very key point here, which is that Felipe Dos

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Speaker 4: Santos is overrated because he overperformed on short notice in

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Speaker 4: his UFC debut. I think Billy would one hundred percent

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Speaker 4: agree with that point. This is something that we see constantly.

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Speaker 4: Guys who come in on short notice as big underdogs

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Speaker 4: and then overperform against the good opponent in their UFC debut,

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Speaker 4: but lows tend to be more heavily favored in their

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Speaker 4: next fights than I think they should be. And if

432
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,880
Speaker 4: Dos Santos hadn't had that performance against him now cap

433
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,480
Speaker 4: in the UFC, if you're only evaluating him off of

434
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,639
Speaker 4: that regional tape that he has, Alton Morono would be

435
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,879
Speaker 4: favored here because his regional tape was horrible and he

436
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 4: doesn't defense strikes. He's absolutely no striking defense. He's really

437
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,359
Speaker 4: fun to watch. He's the type of guy who's going

438
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 4: to secure performance bonuses or be in multiple fighter the

439
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:49,159
Speaker 4: Knights because he has no attention to defense. He's purely offensive.

440
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 4: He just comes forward. He's extremely aggressive. I think both

441
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 4: of these fighters have bad takedown defense. I think either

442
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 4: one can get on top for long stretches, but I

443
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:00,399
Speaker 4: think of the two Alton Mono. It is just a

444
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 4: much better defensive striker. He has more UFC experience. The

445
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 4: thing that worries me is the age differential, and Dosanto's

446
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 4: likely improving. He's twenty three Alta Morano's thirty three leave

447
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:12,679
Speaker 4: the average age for the division is thirty one, So

448
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:17,120
Speaker 4: the age differential stat definitely scares me. But the UFC

449
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,399
Speaker 4: experience of Alfa Morano, the quality of his wins, the

450
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 4: defensive striking. We've seen him in wars before too, against

451
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:25,920
Speaker 4: guys like Daniel Lucerto, where he was able to weather

452
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,360
Speaker 4: the storm, work his way back into the flight, come back.

453
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 4: He's generally a pretty durable guy. So Victor Alfamrano here,

454
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:33,679
Speaker 4: I think, just has plenty of ways of making this

455
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 4: a competitive fifty fifty fight. Getting plus th forty against

456
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:38,879
Speaker 4: the guy who hasn't really proven at this level I

457
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 4: think is a very cheesy number.

458
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 1: I think of the Shane Gillis screenshot when he said

459
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,160
Speaker 1: down like this when you both have the same pick

460
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 1: and you open up the podcast talk on Friday morning

461
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 1: when we record Billy, I read your luck ratings right up,

462
00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,280
Speaker 1: and the first sentence of Billy's right up to support

463
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 1: this is a line I truly don't understand. That is

464
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 1: an attention grabber sentence echoes Zilla's sentiments.

465
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:10,159
Speaker 3: Please if you may.

466
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 6: Yeah.

467
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 5: Well, to Sewan's credit, he made me understand it a

468
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,719
Speaker 5: little bit better by getting into the the moral victory

469
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 5: his last time out. But you know, we don't get

470
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 5: performance bonuses. We don't get win bonuses. Our bets don't

471
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 5: cash based on moral victories. That's not not how any

472
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 5: of this works. I'm glad he brought up the fight

473
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,920
Speaker 5: with Danielssender, who I'm going to talk about later. That's

474
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 5: like the same fight, Like Felipe Dosanos is the same dude,

475
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 5: Like this is. We just saw that happen and Alti

476
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:39,680
Speaker 5: Moron I was standing in there, you know, getting into

477
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 5: a war. Then he's like, oh, if I just take

478
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 5: him down, I'm going to dominate this guy. Alton Ronto

479
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 5: I think a little bit bigger for the division, like

480
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 5: you know, strength wise. He's two and two in the UFC.

481
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 5: One of his losses was a split, the other was

482
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 5: a decision to Tim Elliott. You can't learn anything from

483
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 5: watching people fight tim Elliot, because Tim Elliott doesn't fight

484
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 5: like any other human in the history of the world.

485
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 5: So like just time that one didn't happen. And yeah,

486
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,679
Speaker 5: Nose Santos looked fine against Copy, had his moments, but

487
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,400
Speaker 5: coming in enough two decision wins outside of the promotion,

488
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 5: one of those is split, you know, not really dominant.

489
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 5: The only thing I really want to add that I

490
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 5: think Sean didn't touch on is this fight has the

491
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,440
Speaker 5: longest or the best odds to go to the judges

492
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 5: of any fight on the card, it's most likely to

493
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 5: go to a decision. What I've been talking about all week.

494
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 5: Mexican fighter does anything, he's gonna get a huge pop

495
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 5: that sways the judges. If we expect this to be

496
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 5: a stand up, you know, back and forth brawl between

497
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 5: two light guys probably don't hurt each other too bad.

498
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 5: Those are tough to judge no matter where they put

499
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 5: this fight. If we think it's a decision, that's kind

500
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 5: of hard to judge. I want the plus two to

501
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 5: thirty plus two forty ticket no matter where it is.

502
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 5: Now we say the underdog is the hometown fighter, and

503
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 5: it's going to have that crowd support even better case

504
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 5: for that. So yeah, that's the only thing that Sean

505
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:50,439
Speaker 5: didn't really get to that I wanted to include, but

506
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 5: totally agree with everything else.

507
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,159
Speaker 4: One additional thing too. All of the Brazilian fighters on

508
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 4: this card arrived in Mexico City the week of the fights.

509
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,120
Speaker 4: And you know, again easing, we're going to talk about elevation.

510
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 4: But the fighters who were accust him to training in

511
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 4: Mexico or who trained elevation, Uh, they're just gonna have

512
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 4: an inherent advantage here. And the fighters who didn't come

513
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:14,400
Speaker 4: as early. You know, it takes you a few weeks

514
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 4: to acclimate elevation. The Brazilians who got there this week,

515
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 4: they're not acclimated. The guys who fight in Mexico train

516
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,919
Speaker 4: in Mexico, they're a bit more acclimated. So that is

517
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 4: that is a hitten advantage in the line as well.

518
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 4: But yeah, like I don't I don't see how you

519
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:31,440
Speaker 4: could justify the line. And I think the list certified

520
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 4: is a very good example for how this might go.

521
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,399
Speaker 4: And al To Morano live after round one, I think

522
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,440
Speaker 4: a solid, solid target too. You know, if that line

523
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 4: blows out even more, if he gets knocked down and

524
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,880
Speaker 4: gets back up still in the fight, he still work

525
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:44,680
Speaker 4: his way back at it. So yeah, al To Morano

526
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 4: a solid live target as well.

527
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 3: Okay, excellent consensus underdog, We're back. Let's go to props.

528
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 3: How is the prop market? This week's are a low?

529
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 3: How would you look at it overall and what jumps

530
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 3: out to you?

531
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Billy and I are on opposite sides of

532
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 4: props for the swipe, but I think you could probably

533
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 4: play all three together. But you know, in terms of

534
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 4: the overall prop outlook for this card, I'm probably gonna

535
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 4: be taking more overs and goes to decisions, probably more overs.

536
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 4: I think a lot of these fights are juiced to

537
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 4: end inside the distance due to the elevation.

538
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 3: And I think.

539
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 4: There's a number of fights that I have projected to

540
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 4: go to a decision more than fifty percent of the

541
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 4: time that you're getting costs money on. So gonna be

542
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 4: some unfund sweats. The worst bet in sports, I mean legitimately,

543
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 4: like betting an over on a UFC fight is the

544
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 4: most unfun worst bet in sports. Probably profitable long term,

545
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 4: i'd imagine, because it's so, you know, incredibly discouraging to bet.

546
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 4: But in terms of you know, the prop that or

547
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 4: the fight the Billy and I targeted from a proper perspective,

548
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 4: we just mentioned him Daniel Luserta against Edgar Chairez. These

549
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 4: two also fought previously and.

550
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 3: This ended.

551
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 4: I think via submission for Chirez, but then it was

552
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 4: overturned due to the review officials. It should have been upheld.

553
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 4: Is a very odd and awkward stoppage that the referee

554
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:06,159
Speaker 4: essentially screwed up, but I don't really see it playing

555
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 4: out much differently. Laserta, in all of his fights, is

556
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 4: a danger to finish in round one, and Shirez is

557
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 4: very durable and has a good submission to defense, so

558
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 4: I think he weathers that storm. Billy won't make a

559
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,679
Speaker 4: better case for Lacerta in round one, but Shyrez to

560
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:24,200
Speaker 4: me round two, round three fairly obvious props in addition

561
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 4: to a live bet after round one would assume you

562
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 4: get a better price. Maybe he finishes this again inside

563
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 4: of five minutes. That last fight, though, took place at

564
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 4: the Apex, and I think putting with Certa in a

565
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 4: bigger cage just sort of extends things out a little

566
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 4: bit longer, gets you a couple minutes deeper into the fight,

567
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 4: So I would pick Shirez to finish in round two,

568
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 4: but I think this could extend, maybe even into round three.

569
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 4: His round two prop is about plus three eighty plus

570
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 4: three seventy five his highest plus four hundred shop round

571
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 4: for the best number there, you could find his round

572
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 4: three prop between plus nine hundred and plus one thousands.

573
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 4: So Shira's round two round three about point one five

574
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 4: in the to and then attempt the unit on the

575
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 4: run three.

576
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 3: Shires assert of Billy, why the other side?

577
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, So the stoppage in the first one it was

578
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 5: a submission that Chyrez had put on Aserta. The ref

579
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 5: decided he was unconscious, and then as soon as Tira's

580
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 5: let go, Lisera's like, no, I'm not I'm talking to

581
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,479
Speaker 5: you right now. All that I think I've watched this

582
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 5: thing like it's the Zapruder effect, like flick. I'm trying

583
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 5: to catch every angle of it. I don't think that

584
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 5: choke was on. I think Lycerta could have hung out

585
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 5: in there almost indefinitely. It's hard to say you don't

586
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 5: necessarily get the angle you want from the UFC broadcast,

587
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 5: But knowing what I do about grappling and seeing the

588
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 5: way it was applied, I'm pretty sure one of his

589
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 5: arteries was fine, and he was just kind of like

590
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 5: waiting it out. Don't waste your energy in there. So

591
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 5: that's that's my point on that one. The bigger thing though,

592
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 5: is Licerta is winning all of his fights right up

593
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 5: until he doesn't, and he's owing four in the UFC.

594
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 5: He has three knockdowns in his last two losses in

595
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 5: the UFC, like nobody does that. How do you knock

596
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 5: down guys three times collectively and then lose both those fights.

597
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 5: I just feel like at some point that has to

598
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 5: turn around, right, Like, you can't be dominating guys most

599
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 5: of the time for so long and then lose forever.

600
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 5: There's a reason the UFC has given him another shot

601
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 5: despite being to four to four heading into the last one.

602
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 6: By the way, that's not a no contest. There's got

603
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 6: to be something there.

604
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 5: Round one at plus seven hundred, I think some places

605
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 5: as high as plus eight hundred, he's got to finish

606
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 5: this fight, right, So if he's gonna win inside the

607
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 5: distance at plus four fifty, I'm looking at that as well,

608
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 5: you know, just mainly because you think maybe an early

609
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 5: second round stop which's fresh coming off the stool, that

610
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 5: kind of thing. The other point I was gonna make though,

611
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:36,360
Speaker 5: is Chyres isn't all that good either, right like chyres

612
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 5: Is officially he's officially zero to one in the UFC

613
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:40,640
Speaker 5: font Tetsuo tyra.

614
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 6: That's gonna happen.

615
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 5: But he got in, you know, with a he lost

616
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,120
Speaker 5: on the Contender Series to Clayton Carpenter, where he's taken

617
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 5: down three times. Lacerda can grap a little bit like

618
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 5: the fight ending sequence there was because Lacerta took Chirez down.

619
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 5: It was kind of swinging the momentum back his way.

620
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 5: He's got to know that he needs to just win

621
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 5: a fight here. It's like throwing spinning hook and then

622
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 5: getting knocked out later is only going to save your

623
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 5: job for so long. It's worked so far, but you

624
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 5: can't do that forever. I think there's a zero, non

625
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 5: zero chance that Lacerta comes out and just takes the

626
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 5: easy path here. Again, still think you need to finish

627
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 5: hostile judging, No Cardio, There's a lot of reasons, but yeah,

628
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 5: so inside the distance of plus four fifty and then

629
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 5: the round one plus seven hundred wish sean though, if

630
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 5: we get chyres A plus money coming into the second

631
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 5: or third round, like I am one hundred percent judging that,

632
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 5: So I'm with him on that, but I do think

633
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 5: Lacerta has been underrated here.

634
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's just he's like one of those

635
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 4: art type of fighters that you either have to bet

636
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 4: him in round one or you're waiting to bet his

637
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 4: opponent live and taking his opponents late propsies. There's a

638
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 4: lot of fighters that sort of follow this style, I guess,

639
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 4: or follow that wing condition, and you just have to decide,

640
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 4: like what part of that fight you want to be on,

641
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 4: what side of that fight you want to man, you

642
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 4: have to decide what side of any fight you want

643
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 4: to be on, right, But it's it's a very like

644
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 4: it's a very obvious decision to make. You're not you're

645
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 4: not deciding between moneyline or this guy's decision prop for

646
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 4: the other guy's money on. It's literally like one guy

647
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 4: in round one or you're fading him after round one

648
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 4: and live betting against him. And there are it feels

649
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 4: like there's at least one fight on every card that

650
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 4: kind of has that dynamics. So don't I don't always

651
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 4: end up betting the same side of that. It's not

652
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 4: like Billy or I are always betting the guy who

653
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 4: we think is gonna win a round one and then

654
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 4: always live betting against them. You know, we took different

655
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 4: approaches here so curas to see how this plays out.

656
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 4: But yeah, if you're gonna bet Leserto, like the way

657
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 4: Billy bet him is the way you should bet him.

658
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 5: It's just like Hernandez Copylov last week, Like I thought

659
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 5: Copylov could get the finish, made my money back on

660
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 5: the live bet at the end of round one.

661
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 6: That's kind of how we're looking to do this.

662
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 5: So you take a big swing and hopefully if it

663
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 5: doesn't work out, you can kind of get back to

664
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 5: zero there. If the big swing works, then you're real happy.

665
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 5: So a lot of these I wouldn't bet if you're

666
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 5: not gonna be around to live bett, which I'm gonna

667
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 5: stress extremely hard again in my best bet as we

668
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 5: get to that in a minute.

669
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: Best bets, it's not a bet really not a final bet.

670
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: It's more of a best approach from John Zarrillo to

671
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 1: take us home here for a UFC Mexico.

672
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, as as I said, there's a number

673
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:11,479
Speaker 4: of totals I'm gonna fire in this card. I have

674
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 4: other bets for this card, but this is like the

675
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 4: best live betting card in the in UFC history. Salt

676
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 4: Lake City. We've seen two cards in Salt Lake City

677
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 4: in the past couple of years. Every fighter melted. I mean,

678
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 4: we saw some bad, ugly results, sloppy fights. Salt Lake

679
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 4: City is at forty two hundred feet of elevation. See

680
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 4: down de Mexico is at seventy four hundred feet of elevation.

681
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 4: It is an additional three thousand feet. It's two thousand

682
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 4: additional feet over Denver, Colorado. If you've ever I mean,

683
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 4: I've been to Breckinridge, like I was struggling going up

684
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 4: and down steps. I've been to Mexico City. I went

685
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 4: to Mexico City six weeks ago. It's not as noticeable

686
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 4: as going to a Breckenridge, Colorado, where you actually, like

687
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 4: are above the point where you're feeling elevation sickness. But

688
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 4: your VO two max is down by like twelve to

689
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 4: fifteen percent. Actual oxygen is down by like eight to

690
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 4: twelve percent. There's a noticeable impact. So you should be

691
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 4: going into this card circling fighters who you planned to

692
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 4: live bet after round one. So I'm gonna run down

693
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 4: the list. Here A guy as I'm targeting Daniel zel

694
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 4: Huber in the featured bout. He's going against Francisco Prato.

695
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 4: Prato is very very dangerous in round one. I think

696
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 4: likely to land something big in round one. Zel Hooper

697
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 4: the much better grappler, much better cardio, much more expertly

698
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 4: trained at extreme cautur alexel Hooper live after round one.

699
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 4: Ricky Tertio's Billy's gonna talk about Ricky Tertios in a moment.

700
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 4: I like Tertios live after round one. I think he's

701
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 4: gonna get taken down a bunch, be at a big

702
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 4: physical disadvantage against his opponent ral Rosas, But after round one,

703
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 4: Tertios has Cardio for days. This guy looks like he

704
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 4: could fight for twenty five rounds. It's not the most

705
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 4: physical guy, not the strongest guy, but I think he

706
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 4: will be around if this fight goes more than five minutes.

707
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 4: Chris Duncan going against Manuel Torres. Torres, another very aggressive,

708
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 4: very dangerous fighter, the much better athlete. For five minutes.

709
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 4: Duncan is going to manage his gas tank better, trains

710
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 4: at att going to come in with the game plan.

711
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 4: I like Chris Duncan live after round Christian Cononez about

712
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 4: ten years younger, potentially more than Henry Barcello's. Barcello's thirty

713
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 4: seven knocked out brutally two fights back by Umerna Murgavedov.

714
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 4: He's getting up there in age. I think he's still

715
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 4: very talented. I think the elevation is going to be

716
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 4: a big issue for him here. So the Mexican fighter

717
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 4: Canonas live after round against Barcellos. Barcellos also another one

718
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 4: of these Brazilians who arrived the week of the fight.

719
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 4: Another Mexican fighter going against Brazilian Hayes, and Sagular against

720
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 4: Matteas Mendoca. Aguilar should just have better cardio. Again, we

721
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 4: talked about the Brazilians arriving late, and then finally Chiarez

722
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 4: against Leserta. Again Mexican versus Brazilian training at elevation arrived late.

723
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 4: So all of those angles mostly on Mexican fighters. I

724
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 4: guess the two aren't are Duncan and then Tertios I

725
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 4: believe is American. So yeah, there's there's at least seven

726
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 4: live angles I'm targeting on this fight or on this card.

727
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 4: Victor Altam Morano I should mention as well because I

728
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 4: had him in there earlier, So yeah, great card for

729
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 4: live betting. The elevation is going to prove extremely crucial

730
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 4: on a lot of these fights.

731
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 1: I think anyone can appreciate how you led your handicap

732
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 1: with how you were in Mexico City six weeks ago and.

733
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 4: You figured out it could not recommend it enough.

734
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 3: You landed the plane. That was good.

735
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 1: Uh, Billy, You're going to take a simpler approach and

736
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 1: give out a fighter on the main card.

737
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, so you.

738
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 3: Want to first because that was a whopper.

739
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 5: I do because that's that's part of my angle here.

740
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 5: So my fighter is Roo Rosis Junior Shan just talked

741
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 5: about live betting his opponent. Do not take this if

742
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 5: you are not staying up in live betting after the

743
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 5: under round one on his opponent. This is very much

744
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 5: I put in here in our sheet here Rao Rosas

745
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 5: the bet, but it's not a bet. It is a

746
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 5: family of bets that includes both Raul Rosas and his

747
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 5: opponent live. Both guys are two and one in the

748
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 5: usc Real Rosas you know, two first round finishes, a

749
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 5: dominant first round against Christian Rodriguez, fell off a cliff

750
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,800
Speaker 5: that was all at like reasonable elevation right, Ricky Tertios

751
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 5: also two and one in the UFC.

752
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 6: I think he's a little bit overvalued here.

753
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 5: I actually really like the matchmaking from the UFC because

754
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 5: they found a guy who's two and one in the UFC.

755
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 5: Both of his UFC wins or split decisions, and he

756
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 5: was taken down thirteen times in his three UFC fights,

757
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 5: which when facing a grappler like raul Rosis, it's like

758
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 5: you could not pick a better opponent to try to

759
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 5: make Rosas look really, really good than Ricky Tertios. With

760
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 5: all that said, I just have zero faith in Ross's

761
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 5: cardio right, like it fell off a cliff against kenonas

762
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 5: he sells out to fight it. T is my jiu

763
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 5: jitsu brothern all the time about only having one round

764
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,239
Speaker 5: of cardio, and then again that's like I'm teasing guys

765
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 5: here in Michigan where we don't have any and there's

766
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 5: seven thousand feet above sea level there in Mexico City.

767
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 5: So this line has dropped a lot. I actually, and

768
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 5: I'll admit to my negative line value here. Took Roses

769
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 5: at minus two sixty earlier in the week with this

770
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:15,839
Speaker 5: plan already in place. Now it's like as low as

771
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 5: minus two twenty five. I saw minus too eighteen last night.

772
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 5: If you can get that, you just got to make

773
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 5: sure that you're betting the other side of it. I

774
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 5: think the likeliest outcome here is probably Rosis getting the

775
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 5: finish early, but I just want to have bigger than

776
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 5: plus two twenty five on Tertio's coming back after he

777
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 5: just gets dominated in round one. Either way we make

778
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 5: a profit, but hopefully Ross gets it done early. Of course,

779
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 5: you could do roses inside the distance, roses round one,

780
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 5: you know, roses under one and a half. All those

781
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 5: are options too, but could you come out and dominate

782
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,839
Speaker 5: a second round, go to a decision whatever. I'd rather

783
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 5: just play it safe, attempt to lock in a profit

784
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 5: either way if we get a big price on Tertios.

785
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 4: There's one angle where I wouldn't lie by Tertio's, and

786
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 4: that's if Ross gets a body triangle in round one

787
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,280
Speaker 4: and doesn't have to work that hard. If he's apps

788
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 4: on the body triangle and it's just holding the back,

789
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,399
Speaker 4: it doesn't have to really work that hard to hold it.

790
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 4: I'm probably okay riding out of Rosos about at that point,

791
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 4: but he just seems to have poor energy management. I

792
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,359
Speaker 4: don't even know if it's like bad cardio as much

793
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 4: as it's bad fight IQ or just bad like I mean,

794
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 4: just bad management of his gas tank. He just doesn't

795
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 4: seem to like know how how often he can go

796
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 4: for a takedown before he gases out. And he's young,

797
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 4: he's nineteen. I'll probably get better with Age's overall skill

798
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:34,240
Speaker 4: will get better with age. He's probably continuing to improve.

799
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 4: Tercios is thirty years old. We know what he is.

800
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 4: So big age differential here, you know, I cite that

801
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 4: age differential stat all the time. There is evidence that

802
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:50,080
Speaker 4: the age different Like it's not an advantage to be

803
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 4: nineteen going against the thirty year old, right, it's more

804
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 4: advantageous to be twenty five going against the thirty five

805
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 4: year old when you're in your physical prime, not when

806
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 4: you're like coming into your physical So Rosas isn't quite

807
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 4: there yet. I think he's gonna keep improving though, and

808
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 4: he's he's just so much more physical. He's just going

809
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 4: to you know, run into Tercios and probably bowl him

810
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 4: over in the first round, and then after that'll see.

811
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 5: How it goes to the cardio point Like this, this

812
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 5: is just what happens to guys who grew up doing

813
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 5: sport grappling do that primarily, and then put on little

814
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:23,359
Speaker 5: gloves because then jiu jitsu competition's no gi. Whatever you're

815
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 5: sprinting for a takedown or get to a position, then

816
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 5: both guys kind of relax and you play slow. You

817
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 5: get to catch your breath. Roses sprints to that position, right,

818
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 5: he gets there cool, and then there's a guy elbowing

819
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:34,760
Speaker 5: him in the head and doing all kinds of stuff

820
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 5: and he's got to react to that. So he just

821
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 5: hasn't adapted to that of like I can't sprint rest

822
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 5: sprint rest because I don't get that rest. So you

823
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 5: need to kind of adapt that. And he's nineteen. He'll

824
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 5: figure it out. But that's just a common again. I

825
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 5: joke about it, like I do jiu jitsu all the time.

826
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 5: Those are my people, but it's a real thing, just

827
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 5: the nature of the sports being what they are.

828
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 4: And you know, we want to head to head on

829
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 4: the Christian Roriaz fight, like in hindsight, like, oh, Christian

830
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 4: Rodriguez is a bad bet, but he lost that first round.

831
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:01,880
Speaker 4: You know, you could have gotten better price on Rodriguez

832
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 4: live after round one. So rosss in round one is

833
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 4: very very tough. But after that, once the cardio goes

834
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 4: like yeah, I think Tersios will work his way back

835
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 4: in thirty year old.

836
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 1: Tertios and nineteen year old rosas a family of bets.

837
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,239
Speaker 3: That is a great line from Billy Warren. All right,

838
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 3: Chen's great work.

839
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 1: If you haven't figured this out already, be sure to

840
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 1: find Zarrillo and Billy Ward in the Action App. Be

841
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 1: sure to follow them because of these live betting angles

842
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 1: that are in all likelihood going to be available on

843
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 1: this card for UFC Mexico.

844
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:35,719
Speaker 3: That concludes our betting preview.

845
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,879
Speaker 1: For UFC Mexico here on the Action Network Podcast, who

846
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 1: are presented by our friends at bet MGM. Again, download

847
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,399
Speaker 1: the free award winning Action Network App to follow these

848
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 1: guys as well as their picks as the night unfolds.

849
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, everybody, Brendan glas Sheen signing off, best

850
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 1: of luck with all your picks this weekend, and we'll

851
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 1: see you next time on the Action Network Podcast presented

852
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:55,240
Speaker 1: by bet MGM.

853
00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:03,840
Speaker 7: South of the Bottom Down Mexico Away. That's where I

854
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:08,720
Speaker 7: fell in love when the stars above came out to play,

855
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 7: and now as I wonder my thoughts ever, straight south

856
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 7: of the border down Mexico Way.

857
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:26,799
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

858
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,400
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