WEBVTT - Trump’s Tariffs: The $1 Trillion Bet No One’s Talking About!

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<v Speaker 1>Everyone's talking about Trump's tariffs, but they're looking at the

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<v Speaker 1>wrong thing. While the media argues about politics and potential retaliation,

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<v Speaker 1>a quiet one trillion dollars shift.

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<v Speaker 2>Is happening right behind the scenes.

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<v Speaker 1>And here's what most people don't realize. These tariffs. They're

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<v Speaker 1>not just about China or manufacturing jobs. They're setting up

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<v Speaker 1>one of the biggest investment opportunities of the decade. But

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<v Speaker 1>the question is who's about to win big? What stocks,

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<v Speaker 1>what industries are about to explode? And how do you

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<v Speaker 1>position yourself before the rest of the.

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<v Speaker 2>Market catches on?

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<v Speaker 1>Now real quick, I'm Mark Moss. I've been an investor

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<v Speaker 1>and entrepreneur through multiple boom and bus markets. I've got

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<v Speaker 1>two big exits under my belt. I'm a partner at

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<v Speaker 1>a leading tech focused VC fund. I'm an officer and

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<v Speaker 1>advisor to multiple tech and publicly traded companies. And these

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<v Speaker 1>are the same insights that we use to guide our

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<v Speaker 1>portfolios and hopefully you can as well.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's go.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, So let's just jump right into this. What

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<v Speaker 1>is going on here? I want to give you just

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<v Speaker 1>a high level overview. I'm not going to give you

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<v Speaker 1>the full news. You can go read the news on

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<v Speaker 1>your own. What we're here to do is talk about

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<v Speaker 1>what's behind the scenes, what's between the lines, and how

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<v Speaker 1>do we profit from this? Okay, So, first of off,

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<v Speaker 1>just to sort of understand this you already know by now.

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<v Speaker 1>The title says it all that Trump is bringing tariffs back. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>when I say back, that's partly because, yes, they've been

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<v Speaker 1>around a long time. Yes, the US used to run

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<v Speaker 1>on tariffs before the IRS, before income taxes. And in

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's first term he started bringing tariffs back, and the

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<v Speaker 1>Biden administration got rid of them, and he is bringing

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<v Speaker 1>them back.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, part of the reason why is one he's talking

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<v Speaker 1>about getting rid of income tax that did a whole

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<v Speaker 1>video on this talking.

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<v Speaker 2>About an ers.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to link to it in the show notes

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<v Speaker 1>down below if you want to know what's really going on.

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<v Speaker 1>I think he's pretty serious about it. But what he's

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<v Speaker 1>really serious about is this this American first strategy. So

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<v Speaker 1>let's hear directly from President Trump himself. I like to

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<v Speaker 1>go right to the source.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's go ahead and play this clip.

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<v Speaker 3>But I'll also be placing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and

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<v Speaker 3>copper and things that we need for our military. Things.

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<v Speaker 3>We have to bring production back to our country. Do

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<v Speaker 3>you know there was a time when we made one

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<v Speaker 3>ship a day, and now we can't build a ship.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't know what the hell we're doing. It's all

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<v Speaker 3>gone to other locations and other lands. And to further

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<v Speaker 3>return production to the United States, we're going to environmentally

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<v Speaker 3>free up our rare earth minerals. We have some unbelievable sites.

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<v Speaker 3>We have some of the best rare earth anywhere in

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<v Speaker 3>the world.

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<v Speaker 1>But all right, so you heard it right from his mouth.

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<v Speaker 2>He is bringing tariffs back.

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<v Speaker 1>Specifically, he's talking about bringing tariffs on base metals, so steel, copper,

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<v Speaker 1>things like that, because those are the things that we

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<v Speaker 1>need to rebuild America, rebuild the American economy, and bring

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<v Speaker 1>jobs back, bring manufacturing back.

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<v Speaker 2>So we need the base.

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<v Speaker 1>Metals, we need the steal, we need the copper. We

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<v Speaker 1>need those things here. We also need it for our

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<v Speaker 1>defense department, so rare earth elements, things like that. There's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot to this, all right, So I want to

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<v Speaker 1>break all this down, but we can see here sort

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<v Speaker 1>of a list.

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<v Speaker 2>Of what he's talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>He would impose import tariffs on aluminum and copper, so

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<v Speaker 1>super important things to rebuild our economy, tariffs on computer chips.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, we're in this.

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<v Speaker 1>AI tech race with China pharmaceuticals. We found out how

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<v Speaker 1>the penant we were through the COVID pandemic steal. So

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<v Speaker 1>these are the things that he's really really focused on.

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<v Speaker 1>And again, like I said, there's a lot to this,

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<v Speaker 1>and so you're seeing a lot of noise in the

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<v Speaker 1>news without really well, I think the noise is sort

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<v Speaker 1>of blocking you from what's really going on. But let's

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<v Speaker 1>just address some of the news right now, because I'm

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<v Speaker 1>sure a lot of you are having some questions. So

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<v Speaker 1>the first thing you have to realize that in life,

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<v Speaker 1>there's no linear choices, right, there's trade offs. So to

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<v Speaker 1>get more of one, you give up more of another.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's trade offs. So in this with tariffs, there's

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<v Speaker 1>winners and there's losers. There's lots of reasons why we

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<v Speaker 1>should love tariffs and want them, and there's other reasons

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<v Speaker 1>why maybe we don't want tariffs. So some of the

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<v Speaker 1>things like who loses in tariffs, Well, manufacturers could lose, right,

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<v Speaker 1>the cost of their goods could be going up. Maybe

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<v Speaker 1>people can't import the goods now because the cost went up,

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<v Speaker 1>and manufacturers don't have as many choices, So manufacturers could

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<v Speaker 1>could be hurt. Retail consumers, you and I, we could

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<v Speaker 1>be hurt, right, the prices of our things could go up.

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<v Speaker 1>That might be something that we'll see. Also, people sending

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<v Speaker 1>stuff to the US, China, foreign metal exporters, they're certainly

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<v Speaker 1>going to be hurt.

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<v Speaker 2>Which is the whole point.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, who benefits Well, American citizens.

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<v Speaker 2>Could benefit well, but you just said that we would

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<v Speaker 2>be hurt.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's good and bad, right, So the cost of

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<v Speaker 1>things could go up, but our economy could do better,

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<v Speaker 1>My business could do better. We could have more jobs here.

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<v Speaker 2>So we may pay a little bit more, but we

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<v Speaker 2>may have a better economy, we may have better paying jobs.

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<v Speaker 1>Infrastructure companies are definitely going to benefit, right, So the

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<v Speaker 1>companies that are going to be building back this infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 1>bringing the manufacturing bases back, they're certainly going to benefit.

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<v Speaker 1>Mining companies, the ones that are bringing these materials to

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<v Speaker 1>be the industrial companies, they're going to benefit steel copper

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<v Speaker 1>producers specifically. He said, those are the areas he's going

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<v Speaker 1>to target the most. So those companies are really going

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<v Speaker 1>to benefit from. So there's winners and losers and we

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<v Speaker 1>can also be a loser in one area and a winner.

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<v Speaker 2>And the other. So you have to understand this, okay.

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<v Speaker 1>And the reason why we want to understand that is

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<v Speaker 1>because what the smart money does is don't sit back

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<v Speaker 1>and go, oh, always me. If I guess my price

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<v Speaker 1>are going to be higher, that sucks.

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<v Speaker 2>What we might do. What I do is go, well.

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<v Speaker 1>That's bad, but there's also a way to profit from this,

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe I could make more than enough money to

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<v Speaker 1>offset a little bit of higher prices. As a matter

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<v Speaker 1>of fact, maybe higher prices are worth having the economy

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<v Speaker 1>to better bring jobs back and things like that. But

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<v Speaker 1>what is the smart money doing again, Well, smart money

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<v Speaker 1>realizes that yes, maybe we will have some higher costs,

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<v Speaker 1>but we could also have higher returns. We could invest

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<v Speaker 1>in these areas, have these massive home runs, and then

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<v Speaker 1>we can just pay a little bit.

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<v Speaker 2>More for some of these American made goods.

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<v Speaker 1>And the big thing is, again, is bringing back the

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<v Speaker 1>US industrial base. A small business owner, are you buried

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<v Speaker 1>Let's go back to some quotes from Trump. Here we

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<v Speaker 1>can see on Bloomberg President Trump said, right to the source,

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<v Speaker 1>he said he wants to impose across the board tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>that are much bigger quotes much bigger, much bigger. They'll

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<v Speaker 1>be so much bigger. It'll be so big. I know

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<v Speaker 1>it's a horrible impression, but they're much bigger, much bigger

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<v Speaker 1>than what we had in the past, much bigger than

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<v Speaker 1>what he did the last time. Why why to reshape

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<v Speaker 1>us supply chains?

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<v Speaker 2>Let me read that again.

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<v Speaker 1>Why to reshape us supply chain? So instead of getting

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<v Speaker 1>so much from other places, Let's bring it all back here.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a massive shift. There's good and bad, but

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<v Speaker 1>as an investor, we can understand this could be a

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<v Speaker 1>huge opportunity if we can understand where that money's going. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>Trump laid out his clearest message yet on tariffs. So again,

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<v Speaker 1>go to the source. Forget all the opinion pieces, go

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<v Speaker 1>to the source.

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<v Speaker 2>What did he say.

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<v Speaker 1>He said that we're going to look at pharmaceuticals, drugs,

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to look at chips again. So we talked

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<v Speaker 1>about that microchips, the airas semiconductors again, so we know

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<v Speaker 1>that steal some other industries like copper.

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<v Speaker 2>The only way.

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<v Speaker 1>To get out of this, the only way to get

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<v Speaker 1>this out of the tariff. So if you're a country

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<v Speaker 1>that doesn't want to have tariffs imposed on you for

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<v Speaker 1>sending your goods over here, the only way to get

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<v Speaker 1>out of that, the high tariffs, is to build your

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<v Speaker 1>plant here, build it here in America. So if you

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to pay the tariffs to import stuff to America,

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<v Speaker 1>then just come to America and build a plant and

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<v Speaker 1>sell it right here. So he's not telling companies or countries, Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>you can't sell your stuff to America. He's just saying,

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<v Speaker 1>on an even playing field, if you want to do that,

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<v Speaker 1>just come build it here and sell it to us.

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<v Speaker 1>But what does that mean. What's the second order effect? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>if some companies decide well, okay, well we'll build our

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<v Speaker 1>cars there, we'll build our microchips, we'll build our stuff there, well,

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<v Speaker 1>then that means a lot of companies come here. That

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<v Speaker 1>means a lot more jobs. It also means that there's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot more.

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<v Speaker 2>Building, a lot more construction. In order to get building.

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<v Speaker 1>In construction, we need a lot more supplies, and we

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<v Speaker 1>can't import the steel in the copper because of the tariffs,

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<v Speaker 1>So that means those supplies will be come in here

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<v Speaker 1>from the United States, and so we can start to

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<v Speaker 1>chase down this money.

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<v Speaker 2>Once we start to understand this.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, what this is doing is it's starting to buifurcate

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<v Speaker 1>the market.

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<v Speaker 2>So we can see here copper right in the US.

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<v Speaker 1>The price of coppers going up in the US, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's slipping in London. So it's going down in some

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<v Speaker 1>markets and it's going up in some Why because of

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<v Speaker 1>course the US is going to have this massive demand

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<v Speaker 1>for it, and the rest of the world maybe won't

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<v Speaker 1>benefit as much from that, and so we can see

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<v Speaker 1>that it's starting to buifurcate the market. Now on top

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<v Speaker 1>of that, it's not just Trump that's doing this. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>Trump is pushing this with the terrace, of course. But again,

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<v Speaker 1>what COVID really highlighted for the world, and even more importantly,

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<v Speaker 1>what the Russia Ukraine War showed us, is that the US.

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<v Speaker 2>Can't really make anything.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what Trump was saying in that video clip earlier, right,

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<v Speaker 1>the US can't really make anything. And the war highlighted

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<v Speaker 1>that Russia is out producing all of NATO like ten

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<v Speaker 1>to one on munition something like that.

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<v Speaker 2>And so we.

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<v Speaker 1>Found that there are mission critical things that we need

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<v Speaker 1>in the US that we just don't have. And so

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<v Speaker 1>it's not just a Trump make America Great Again thing,

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<v Speaker 1>it's also a Department of Defense thing. So now we

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<v Speaker 1>have a DoD sort of driven economy critical minerals. This

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<v Speaker 1>is from Congress.

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<v Speaker 2>Critical minerals are.

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<v Speaker 1>Essential for our economy and our national security. It's not

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<v Speaker 1>about tariffs now, this is about national security and economy.

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<v Speaker 1>Demand for these strategic resources continues to increase. The United

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<v Speaker 1>States must ensure access to a reliable supply, Arizona congressman

0:10:21.559 --> 0:10:24.120
<v Speaker 1>said in a statement, So it's not just about terras,

0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:26.120
<v Speaker 1>it's not just about making America great again. It's like

0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:29.800
<v Speaker 1>for our own national security, we better get these what

0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:32.680
<v Speaker 1>they call strategic resources, We better get them in place

0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:37.080
<v Speaker 1>right now. US gs Critical Minerals and DOE Department of

0:10:37.160 --> 0:10:41.080
<v Speaker 1>Energy Materials Lists to strengthen the domestic supply chain and

0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:46.400
<v Speaker 1>include copper, electrical steel, silicon, and silicon carbide on the

0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:49.040
<v Speaker 1>Critical Minerals list. These are things like if we don't

0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:51.920
<v Speaker 1>have these, we can't go to war with China or Russia.

0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:53.920
<v Speaker 2>If we don't have things, we have nothing.

0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:56.679
<v Speaker 1>And so they're now on the Critical Minerals list. It

0:10:56.760 --> 0:11:01.280
<v Speaker 1>highlights copper's essential role empowering America's energy future. So obviously,

0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:04.559
<v Speaker 1>going into this digital future AI crypto decentralization, which I

0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:05.880
<v Speaker 1>talked about all the time, we're going to need that

0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:11.520
<v Speaker 1>legislation specifically ensures critical mineral projects, and even more specifically,

0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:14.920
<v Speaker 1>we need them right now, so eligible for the fast

0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:18.040
<v Speaker 1>forty one permitting process. So one of the things Trump

0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:22.040
<v Speaker 1>is also promising is to continue to get regulations. So

0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:25.000
<v Speaker 1>he paused all new regulations in his previous term for

0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:27.600
<v Speaker 1>every one new regulation that got passed, he got rid

0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:29.920
<v Speaker 1>of two point five, which is more than what he

0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:32.720
<v Speaker 1>had promised. And so we need to deregulate this stuff

0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:35.400
<v Speaker 1>so we can bring this stuff to market. Under the

0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:39.240
<v Speaker 1>bid administration, it actually work the opposite way. So we're

0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:42.079
<v Speaker 1>rebuilding the US industrial base. We're going to reshape the economy.

0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:44.640
<v Speaker 1>We're going to bring on the US critical resources steel, copper,

0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:48.280
<v Speaker 1>that's also like uranium which we're still getting from like Russia,

0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:52.680
<v Speaker 1>rare earth metererals, minerals that we're getting from China. And

0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:56.440
<v Speaker 1>so the playbook for this is to understand the second, third, fourth,

0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.360
<v Speaker 1>fifth order. If we're reshaping the economy, we're going to

0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:01.480
<v Speaker 1>rebuild it. We're going to bring companies from outside the

0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:02.320
<v Speaker 1>US to build here.

0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:04.400
<v Speaker 2>Then we're going to have more jobs. You comomy will

0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:06.040
<v Speaker 2>do better. There's gonna be a lot of construction.

0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:08.560
<v Speaker 1>There's going to be a lot of supply, specifically around

0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:11.880
<v Speaker 1>the things that have high tariffs that are critical by

0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:15.160
<v Speaker 1>the DOE, and so things like steal things like copper

0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:16.720
<v Speaker 1>are going to do really well. Now how do you

0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:20.000
<v Speaker 1>play that well? One you can buy like an index,

0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:21.920
<v Speaker 1>So well, I guess they're probably in the s and

0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:23.640
<v Speaker 1>P five hundred. I can buy the SMP five hundred,

0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:25.920
<v Speaker 1>and I could buy an ETF that's maybe like a

0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:28.480
<v Speaker 1>commodity basket. We could do something like that, or we

0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:31.400
<v Speaker 1>could buy individual stocks, which of course we'll have much

0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:33.320
<v Speaker 1>better return, But now you have to be selective on

0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:36.600
<v Speaker 1>what you're buying, and then it really depends on what

0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:39.800
<v Speaker 1>your strategy is with this. We can do long term

0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:42.040
<v Speaker 1>or we can do trading. In my opinion, of course,

0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.360
<v Speaker 1>it's always to think it's best to think long term

0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:48.480
<v Speaker 1>that the daily action of why copper or monthly action

0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:50.840
<v Speaker 1>of why copper might go up and down. It's hard

0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:52.920
<v Speaker 1>to know. But what we do know is over the

0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:56.400
<v Speaker 1>next three years, four years, five years, ten years, it's

0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:57.840
<v Speaker 1>going to be going up, and so.

0:12:57.880 --> 0:12:59.040
<v Speaker 2>Think long term in this.

0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:01.360
<v Speaker 1>A couple things we want to be paying attention to.

0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:03.600
<v Speaker 2>Risks are what if these.

0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:06.120
<v Speaker 1>Tariffs get reversed. I don't think that's going to happen,

0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:08.240
<v Speaker 1>but it's possible, So we want to be paying attention

0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:11.120
<v Speaker 1>to the news, paying attention to these regulations. What about

0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:16.280
<v Speaker 1>potential retaliation? So some nations are vowing to get retaliation

0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:18.560
<v Speaker 1>on the US, but jokes on them, DUS doesn't really

0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:21.480
<v Speaker 1>import much stuff. However, that could get out of control.

0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:23.480
<v Speaker 1>Maybe there's some unseen things that we don't know. It

0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:26.080
<v Speaker 1>could crash the economy. If the economy goes down, then

0:13:26.120 --> 0:13:28.000
<v Speaker 1>maybe some of this gets stalled out. Something to pay

0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:30.800
<v Speaker 1>attention to, and then just overall economy as well, that

0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.160
<v Speaker 1>could bring demand for assets down as well. So we

0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:35.160
<v Speaker 1>want to be paying attention to those things. But I

0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.240
<v Speaker 1>think this is a much bigger picture than just the

0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:40.480
<v Speaker 1>one trillion. It's not just the one trillion from the

0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:43.360
<v Speaker 1>steal from the copper, from the commodities that are becoming

0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:45.800
<v Speaker 1>a US. We're talking about making America radia, and we're

0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:47.120
<v Speaker 1>talking about reindeestrializing the base.

0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:48.880
<v Speaker 2>We're talking about something much bigger.

0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:50.760
<v Speaker 1>There's going to be a lot of opportunities.

0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:52.679
<v Speaker 2>So there's plenty of ways for.

0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:54.199
<v Speaker 1>You to out and find these and that's what we

0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:56.600
<v Speaker 1>got for today's video. Hopefully this makes sense. Learn how

0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:59.559
<v Speaker 1>to look for these political storms, see where it's sending

0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.120
<v Speaker 1>the money, and then go position yourself to get some

0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:04.640
<v Speaker 1>of that money when it shows up. Hopefully that makes sense.

0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:06.160
<v Speaker 1>Let me a comment, let me know what you think.

0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:07.679
<v Speaker 1>As always, give me thumbs up if you like it.

0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:09.880
<v Speaker 1>If you don't give me thumbs down, that's okay, and

0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:12.640
<v Speaker 1>that's what I got, all right, to your success, I'm out.