1 00:00:01,440 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts. If you are even remotely 2 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over for a second. 3 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 2: Hello, Welcome the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview. I'm 4 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 2: Sean Zarillo, joined today by Billy Word to break down 5 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,840 Speaker 2: this weekend's UFC three thirteen card, giving your best bets, 6 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 2: favorite underdogs, top props, and more. If you'd like to 7 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 2: tell some of the bets that we discussed today, and 8 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 2: make sure to find the quick slip link in the 9 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:45,840 Speaker 2: podcast and the video description if you're watching on YouTube, 10 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 2: or go to Action network dot com slash bet now 11 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 2: to find those quick slips. Twelve fight card from the 12 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Prelim start at 13 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 2: six thirty pm. Main card ten Eastern on pay per view. 14 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 2: The main event Ali to Hara Magabat ank Alive for 15 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 2: the light heavyweight title. About a pick him right now? 16 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 2: Some spots you can find ankle Ive at minus one 17 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:10,559 Speaker 2: oh three plus money last night, may flip again before 18 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 2: fight time. A lot of flag planting on this fight. 19 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 2: Billy and I have planted flags on either side of 20 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 2: the matchup. I'll have it made event preview for this 21 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 2: upon Action Atwork dot Com and in the Action Network 22 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 2: at But Billy, I'm gonna go ahead and let you 23 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 2: leave things off. Tell me why you're betting on Poeton 24 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 2: season to continue this weekend. 25 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 3: I mean the biggest reason is I'm very tired of 26 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:31,199 Speaker 3: losing money betting against Alex Fada, Like it just doesn't 27 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 3: work out. I don't know if it's you know, the 28 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 3: intimidation factor or he's really just that much better than everyone. 29 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 3: There's something that's really hard to like quantify or qualify 30 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 3: about why he's so good. But it just keeps happening. 31 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 3: And we've seen, you know, everyone they've thrown at him. 32 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 3: Roundtree gave him a tough fight, but we were never 33 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 3: really worried that Roundtree was going to win. It was 34 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 3: just more like how badly can he lose or not 35 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 3: lose by And it's just the power he has and 36 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 3: the ability to touch you. And we talk about it 37 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 3: a lot of times with people that have to wrestle 38 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 3: the whole fight to have a chance, they have to 39 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 3: win basically all twenty five minutes where Peta needs to 40 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 3: win a three second exchange where he lands a big shot. 41 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 3: The other thing, I think that's getting a little bit overblown. 42 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 3: Is we've all talked about like this is the only 43 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:16,519 Speaker 3: grappler he's going to face in the UFC, This is 44 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 3: the only wrestler he's fought at light heavyweight. In fifteen 45 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 3: UFC fights, Ankliev has landed multiple takedowns just twice. He's 46 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 3: not like, he's not morob right, He's a guy who 47 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 3: mixes in some takedowns but also prefers to strike. He 48 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 3: might be able to get one or two, he might 49 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 3: get some early. I don't think he's gonna hold paida 50 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 3: down the whole time. I don't think he really adds 51 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 3: the submission skills to truly threaten him with a finish. 52 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:42,799 Speaker 3: So it's just an incredibly narrow path the victory for 53 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 3: Frankliav where he needs to steal a couple rounds with takedowns, 54 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 3: maybe even when one on the feet, all on not 55 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,359 Speaker 3: getting knocked out by the guy who knocks everyone out. 56 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 3: So I get the logic on Ankliev and like the 57 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 3: reasoning behind it is just I can't get there myself. 58 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 3: And then last factor, it is Ramadan right now, which 59 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 3: seems to be messing with ankle Ive a little bit. 60 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,359 Speaker 3: There's been a lot of discussion about it. I don't 61 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,639 Speaker 3: know exactly, you know, how much he's breaking is fast, 62 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,359 Speaker 3: what his diet and training has changed, like. Even if 63 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 3: it's just as simple as not being able to have 64 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 3: your usual partners because they're observing Ramadan and not training 65 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 3: and you are, I could see that being a small 66 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 3: factor here that plays in. I'm not betting it because 67 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 3: of that necessarily, but it feels like a small data 68 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 3: point to throw on. 69 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:27,079 Speaker 2: Yeah, the UFC has been clearly avoiding this matchup for 70 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 2: a while for Bihera, letting him build up against fellows strikers. 71 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 2: Now getting a pick and price on a grappler, a 72 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 2: guy who can grapple anyway in ankle Ive, I think 73 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 2: is the move for me. It's the matchup in targeting 74 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 2: for a while in terms of fading. Alex Tahara generally 75 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 2: bet on him to this point, other than me the 76 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 2: last year he fight due to the price adjustment, but 77 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 2: I expected when the time this came outch up. By 78 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 2: the time this matchup came around, we'd have to lay 79 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 2: minus one fifty maybe higher on ank Live given the 80 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:55,120 Speaker 2: grappling upside. I actually think the striking here is going 81 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,119 Speaker 2: to be a lot closer than people expect. Ankle Ive 82 00:03:58,160 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 2: has a big durability edge, of my opinion. I know, 83 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 2: so he was dropped by Thiago Santos in a fight 84 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 2: as you mentioned that he didn't grapple when he probably 85 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: should have and he had the advantage. But I would 86 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 2: anticipate that he's going to grapple here at minimum cage 87 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 2: push like he did against Anthony Smith. Tried to tie 88 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 2: Alex up against defence, you know, slow him down, not 89 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 2: let him get it ranged, because Alex does have a 90 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 2: reach advantage, and he also has those really nasty calf kicks, 91 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,599 Speaker 2: and we've seen ankle I have slown down from calf 92 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 2: kicks before it is fight against yerior Is, fight against 93 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 2: Yan Bohovich. I do think Tho was this fight extends 94 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 2: as it goes longer. If Yon, sorry, if Magamed is 95 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 2: able to land a takedown, I do think Alex is 96 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 2: going to slow We've seen in other fights where he's 97 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 2: had to grapple against at Asanya started breathing much heavier, 98 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 2: against Yan started breeding breathing much heavier. So if ank 99 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 2: Live is able to get the grappling going, especially if 100 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 2: he's able to get an early takedown, I do think 101 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 2: it changes the dynamic of the fight. But I am 102 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,919 Speaker 2: certainly worried about the leg kicks at range, power in 103 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 2: the hands. But that's said, if these you get in 104 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 2: a fifty to fifty exchange, if they start throwing keat 105 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 2: in the center of the cage, ankle Live carries a 106 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 2: ton of power, and as I said, I do think 107 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 2: he is the better chin. He's five years younger. Poton 108 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 2: has taken a lot of damage if he got rocked 109 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:13,840 Speaker 2: in that roundtree fight, and he's been super active and 110 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 2: Billy we've talked about in the past, don't necessarily love 111 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 2: seeing these guys who fight like every three months. As 112 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 2: they get into their late thirties, the damage does eventually 113 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 2: start to accumulate. Ankle Live while he hasn't been as active. 114 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:26,840 Speaker 2: I do think the chin is just a little bit 115 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 2: fresher one angle, maybe a little bit contrarion here that 116 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 2: I do show value on that. I may not necessarily 117 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 2: bet the over or the fight to go to the 118 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 2: distance at plus money. I made this plus one forty six. 119 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 2: I think you can get plus t twenty five out there. 120 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 2: It's a pretty juicy number on this fight to go 121 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 2: the entire way. But Basically, I'm taking the younger man. 122 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 2: Poton is a very heavy lean. In the public data 123 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 2: samples that I used to project out these fights, they're 124 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 2: picking him at about sixty percent in a pick them fight, 125 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 2: So I make Magma fifty five percent. Here would bet 126 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 2: him up to about minus one twenty and we're on 127 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 2: opposite sides of the main evact. Billy, any more thoughts 128 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 2: on this fight before we move on to a fight 129 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 2: at the night. 130 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 3: I didn't really think of this angle until you mentioned it. 131 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 3: I'm glad you did. The like cage pushing and like 132 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 3: stalling and not stalling. Stalling is a bad word, but 133 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 3: you know what I'm saying, that is a good path 134 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 3: for Rankliav. I don't know how judges are going to 135 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,840 Speaker 3: view that because Poeton is so popular and this is 136 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 3: a full arena and people are gonna freak out any 137 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 3: time he lands a shot. That is a really interesting one, though. 138 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 3: I when I think about that, if you're gonna take 139 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:32,919 Speaker 3: the over, I feel like you just sing me in 140 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 3: parlay that with Ankliav, because if it goes long, he 141 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 3: probably you know, is doing those kind of things that 142 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 3: steal him some rounds. So putting those together I really 143 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 3: like or even if you want to go in Calive 144 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 3: by decision, I think is pretty big plus money. I 145 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 3: like that side of it because my whole thesis on 146 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 3: Paida is he just needs to win briefly and get 147 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 3: a knockout, where ank Alive needs to control the whole time. 148 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 3: So I think you're onto something there. I just I'm 149 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 3: concerned a little bit about how the judges will react 150 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 3: if that does happen in this fight. 151 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 2: One other point I do want to make on the 152 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 2: Poeton side, He's been grappling training with Uri or with 153 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 2: Glover t Hera for like a while. Now. You know, 154 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 2: he did come over to MMA late. The grappling skill 155 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 2: was basically non existent. He was a white belt when 156 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 2: he first came over. But every fight you do see 157 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 2: him getting a little bit more confident, starting to land 158 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 2: a takedown of his own, now threatening a guillotine against Atasania. 159 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 2: Like the confidence is clearly increasing in the grappling. I 160 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 2: still don't know if it's at a level where I 161 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 2: trust him against ankle Io of over twenty five minutes 162 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 2: to deny takedowns every single time, or to scramble back 163 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 2: to his feet if he does get taken down. But 164 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 2: ankle Iab also isn't particularly, as you said, a potent 165 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 2: submission threat, and he doesn't tend to pass positions or 166 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 2: advance you know that dramatically either. I don't really remember 167 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 2: seeing him in mount at any point or holding back 168 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 2: control for extended stretches against anybody. So he is powerful 169 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 2: on top. I think. I think if he can get 170 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 2: the takedown, he can basically finish the round there and 171 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 2: that might be his round. And if you think about 172 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 2: it from that perspective, if you give one round to 173 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 2: Ankliev grappling, Poton doesn't need to win you know, three 174 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 2: of the other four striking in order to win the fight, 175 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 2: if not knock him out. So that is again wiling 176 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 2: to the ankle Ib side, give him around for grappling, 177 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 2: let him play out the rest of the way. Let's 178 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 2: move on to a fight of the night, Thoughe. There's 179 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 2: a number of really exciting fights on this card. We're 180 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 2: gonna go with the rematch between Justin Gaichie and half 181 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 2: Iel Phiziev. Phiziaev minus won sixty in this fight. These two, 182 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 2: though fought back at UFC two eighty six. Phiziev closed 183 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 2: minus two twenty five. In that fight, the fight was 184 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 2: minus two fifteen to end inside the distance. This fight 185 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 2: the rematch minus one thirty and Phiziev coming off of 186 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 2: an acl repair. Gaichee coming off of that KO loss 187 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 2: to Max Holloway where he looked, you know, dead in 188 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 2: the middle of the cage at the end of the fight. 189 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 2: Took him a long time to get up and get 190 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 2: out of there, and we weren't even sure whether we 191 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 2: were going to see him again. So major chin concerns 192 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 2: for gaichee athleticism decline coming off of an awful knockout 193 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 2: loss like that. Phiziev I don't necessarily think was even 194 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 2: booked preparing for a fight before he got this short 195 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 2: notice called or replace Dan Hooker, So I do like 196 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 2: Phizziev given the line adjustment. Geechee is also super popular 197 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 2: this week. The public is picking him to win about 198 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,079 Speaker 2: sixty percent of the time. It was the case in 199 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 2: the first fight two though, and Geige ended up being 200 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,959 Speaker 2: super competitive won the second and third round. Though I 201 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 2: think there is some debate as to whether Fizzyev got 202 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 2: the second round, but Geechee was pulling away late. This 203 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 2: is still a three round fight, Billy, you have a 204 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 2: couple of different angles you're playing on this. I really 205 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 2: love the prop angle you gave out when you talked 206 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 2: about takedown props last week. I immediately thought of the 207 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:33,839 Speaker 2: Geichee Phiziev fight because I thought it might be a 208 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 2: good angle for Gechee, especially coming off of the knockout loss. 209 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 2: Maybe try to mix in the grappling where you have 210 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 2: the advantage. So go ahead and give me your angles 211 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 2: on this fight. And I just I wanted to endorse 212 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 2: that takedown prop because I love the number. 213 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll start with that one. Justin Gaichee, I believe 214 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 3: has attempted four takedowns in his UFC career, which you know, 215 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 3: double digit fights. Three of those were ATTRACTI off Physiev 216 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 3: in their first fight. Three of the four, including the 217 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 3: only one he landed. If you go back and watch 218 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 3: that first fight with your sound like a little bit 219 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:06,719 Speaker 3: louder than you would normally watch a fight, you can 220 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 3: hear his corner screaming at him to wrestle. When Raphael 221 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 3: lands on him and clips him a little bit, and 222 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 3: it happens like three or four different times. I believe 223 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 3: he tried one takedown in each round. The only one 224 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 3: he got was in the third round, but that was 225 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 3: like it arguably sealed him the fight. It was, you know, 226 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 3: the more definitive moment. He got rocked a bunch of times. 227 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 3: Andy's coming off a bad knockout loss, and he was 228 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 3: a d one all American, Like, we don't think of 229 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 3: him as a wrestler, but obviously that's something he can do. 230 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 3: He's talked about not wanting to take that kind of 231 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 3: head trauma, you know, saying he's going to retire if 232 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 3: he takes another one. So it's all pointing that way, 233 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 3: and it's like north of plus two hundred. I think 234 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 3: it moved to plus two fifteen. I got it at 235 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 3: plus two hundred. Kind of anything over like one sixty 236 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 3: one seventy I think is a good line on that. 237 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 3: It just if there's ever a situation he's going to wrestle. 238 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 3: This is absolutely it that I agree with you with 239 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 3: Physiev as the side. I'm going with knockout rather than 240 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:02,679 Speaker 3: submission or rather than money line for a couple of reasons. 241 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 3: The first is if his ACL is fully healed and 242 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 3: he's back at one hundred percent and we've seen this 243 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 3: damage done to Gai Chee, I think he could he 244 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 3: should knock him out if he's one hundred percent, if 245 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 3: he's not one hundred percent, or is Cardio's not there 246 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 3: because it's short notice or any of those other things. 247 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 3: I don't see Physievs stealing the decision here. He faded 248 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 3: in the later part of their first fight, and that 249 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 3: was under much better circumstances than this. So I think 250 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:29,440 Speaker 3: he needs a finish to get the win, and those 251 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 3: lines should be closer to each other. I agree with 252 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 3: you that, you know, if I could only take money lines, 253 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 3: the one sixty is fine. It's just I think he 254 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 3: kind of needs that finish, given that he's coming in 255 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,560 Speaker 3: on short notice. Really weird fight to handicap because we've 256 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:46,319 Speaker 3: got Gaichee coming in bad knockout loss, has openly kind 257 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 3: of mulled over retirement in the media, all stuff we 258 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 3: don't want to bet on, right, But then we also 259 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 3: have a guy who hasn't fought in eighteen months because 260 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 3: it's towards ACL and we have no idea if he 261 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,440 Speaker 3: was in a camp, has done a camp, What is 262 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 3: Cardios like any of those things, if he's fully healed. 263 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 3: Just for those reasons, I'd rather take a couple swings 264 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 3: at some big plus money than lay the juice at 265 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,439 Speaker 3: minus one sixty. But I'm one hundred percent with you. 266 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 3: If I could only take money lines that would be 267 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:11,679 Speaker 3: at all day. 268 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 2: Just to return to the scoring in the first fight 269 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 2: and why the dynamic between these two was kind of weird. 270 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 2: Gai Chi is the better boxer, He's gonna land more 271 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 2: head strikes. Phiziev phenomenal body kicks, mixes them up to 272 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 2: the head sometimes. But I think the body damage on 273 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 2: Gaichie is the real issue because Gaichee, even before the 274 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 2: knockout loss to Holloway, was showing significant vulnerabilities to the body. 275 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,319 Speaker 2: His fight against Charles Olavera in particular, a bunch of 276 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 2: knees to the body really weakened him up very quickly. 277 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,439 Speaker 2: He's always been much weaker to the body thaniis to 278 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 2: the head, thinking back to his wars against Dustin Tooye 279 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 2: the first the first fight in particular, he got hurt 280 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,959 Speaker 2: to the body a number of times there. So Gaigie 281 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 2: very vulnerable to those body kicks, probably going to get 282 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 2: picked apart with them, provided Phizief is back close to 283 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:55,960 Speaker 2: where he was prior to that Aco injury. So yes, 284 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 2: I do like Phizief on the money line actually as 285 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 2: a post of the kaoprop because I do think he 286 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 2: can just tear Gaichie up with those body kicks. But 287 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 2: as you mentioned, you know, coming off the ACL surgery 288 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 2: Gatechee had the cardio advantage in the first fight. Would 289 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 2: still give him the cardio advantage in the second fight, 290 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 2: but it may be even more significant because not as 291 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,199 Speaker 2: worried about his cardio coming off of a kayoff awesome 292 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 2: worried about the chin Phizziev. I think the cardio could 293 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 2: be the question coming off the d injury, so Fizziev 294 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 2: the much more durable man. I think laying the point 295 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 2: spread on Phizziev could be an interesting move as well, 296 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 2: because you get the finishing upside in there, and you 297 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 2: also get the wide decision upside built in as well. 298 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 2: At ten round where he doesn't finish, Gay Chee, you know, 299 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 2: lends a number of body kicks hurts him, So some 300 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 2: interesting angles to consider on that fight. But I really 301 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 2: do like Billy's approach plus two hundred on Gai Chee 302 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 2: to land the takedown. I'd be very surprised if he 303 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,319 Speaker 2: doesn't shoot at least one in this matchup. Some of 304 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 2: onund are our favorite underdogs for this card. I've got 305 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 2: a couple I like. I believe Billy's got a couple 306 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 2: he likes as well. I may be on the other 307 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 2: side of Billy's underdogs. The one I'll give out the 308 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 2: one I like first the most. Francis Marshall at plus 309 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 2: two thirds against Myron Santos. He's training at att now. 310 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 2: These guys are very close in age. Santo's coming off 311 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 2: of the Ultimate Fighter, knocked out a guy I don't 312 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:13,959 Speaker 2: think is UFC caliber, and Marshall was considered a decently 313 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:17,559 Speaker 2: high level prospect himself till he lost to Isaac Dulgarian. 314 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 2: Dulgarian hit his wing condition out, grappling and pounding him 315 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 2: out in round one in that matchup. But Marshall has 316 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 2: the grappling upside and the advantage in this fight against 317 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 2: Myron Santos, who previously got out grappled very thoroughly by 318 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 2: Daniel Orgetta in a lower weight class. I think Marshall 319 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 2: is pretty good hands to la Is boxing. Myron is 320 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 2: just much more dynamic. He's the better athlete, He's more explosive. 321 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 2: I think most people would give him more finishing upside, 322 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 2: but his Muay Thai style doesn't necessarily translate to MMA 323 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 2: and grappling and you know all the other aspects that 324 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 2: you can mix it into a fight that Marshall does. 325 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 2: So Marshall to me with a more well rounded man. 326 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 2: I like him at plus two thirty, not as good 327 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 2: of an athlete, but I do think if this one extends, 328 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 2: if it goes all fifteen minutes, I like Marshal's chances 329 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 2: to win a decision. I also just generally like that 330 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 2: fight to go over, but getting a much better price 331 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 2: on Marshall's side of the money line. Billy, why don't 332 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 2: you go ahead and give out your two dogs and 333 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 2: then maybe we'll discuss this Kudiev Blades fight because I 334 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 2: don't want to play cootief but I may have to 335 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 2: get there. But go ahead and talk about the Jalen 336 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 2: Turner fight, because you know, aside from the co main event, 337 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 2: that's probably my fight in the night Turner versus Bahamundees. 338 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, very exciting fight. There's a couple of reasons behind it. 339 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 3: The first is like, if there's ever a you know, 340 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 3: luck ratings fight or guy whose record should be better 341 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 3: than it is, it's Jalen Turner. He's six and three 342 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 3: over his last nine, two split decision losses in there. 343 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 3: I think they're both probably the right decision, but like 344 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 3: could have gone either way. Both he faded heavily late 345 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 3: and then the fight at UFC three hundred again so 346 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 3: not to Moikano where he arguably should have been a 347 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 3: TKO victor, like he had more. Kano hurt bad, the 348 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 3: ref didn't jump in. Turner kind of eased up a 349 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 3: little bit the context around that. Though his previous fight 350 00:15:56,880 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 3: he almost murdered King Green with the ref that was 351 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 3: coming in late, I think there might have been a 352 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 3: little bit of hesitancy to do that again, you know, 353 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 3: unnecessarily hurt someone when the fight should be stopped. But 354 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 3: he got a different ref this time, who's a little 355 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 3: bit slower on the on the trigger than he had 356 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 3: against King Green. So I you know, you could argue 357 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 3: that Jalen Turner was the better fighter that night, he 358 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:23,440 Speaker 3: should have won, and then, as he so often does, 359 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 3: fell apart late when he didn't get the early finished. 360 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 3: You know, sold out trying to go forward at different points, 361 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 3: and you can't. You can't let moy Kano back in 362 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 3: a fight he's going to take that second second chance. 363 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 3: So looking back at his last three losses, like there's 364 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 3: a case that he could have been on a nine 365 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 3: fight win streak coming in this against Nacho Baha Mondez. 366 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 3: Weirdly similar style fighter. They're both six to three, I believe, 367 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 3: the tallest fighters in the lightweight division. I like Turner's 368 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 3: power better uh Nacho adds, I think more submission upside, 369 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 3: Like he's got a few submission wins. He's got really 370 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 3: good subs, but he doesn't initiate the grappling ever. So 371 00:16:57,520 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 3: unless you are dumb enough to stick your head in 372 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 3: there and get the brabo chokes and the darsis that 373 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 3: he likes to go for, it's not really a threat 374 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 3: unless you allow it to be one. I don't think 375 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 3: Turner's going to do that. I also think this is 376 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 3: a super high variance fight because we've never seen either 377 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 3: of these guys fight someone as tall as they are, 378 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 3: because that just doesn't exist. And given that variance, I 379 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 3: like the plus money side. But with all that said, 380 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,679 Speaker 3: if Turner pushes you know, a good pace early on, 381 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:27,919 Speaker 3: has his moments, and we see Nacho at big plus money, 382 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 3: by all means I'm jumping back in on Nacho at 383 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 3: plus money and the other underdog and given out very 384 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 3: similar situation. Bruno Fijeda all of his professional wins have 385 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:39,919 Speaker 3: been within the first like six and a half minutes, 386 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 3: all of his UFC wins in the first round fighting 387 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:46,160 Speaker 3: arm and Petrosian. Both guys are kickboxers. Petrosian the better 388 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 3: technical kickboxer. Bruno has more power and arguably more durability 389 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 3: after Petrosian took that double spinning back fist knockout, but 390 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 3: he just doesn't have great cardio because he swings so 391 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,639 Speaker 3: hard and works real hard. Also, I would argue that 392 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 3: Bruno might throw a takedown or two in here, which 393 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 3: could also blow out the money line, So same exact concept. 394 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 3: I like Bruno at plus money coming into the fight. 395 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 3: If we get big plus money on the other side, 396 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 3: harbor trage to that back out. I know you're on 397 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:14,160 Speaker 3: the other side of that one, which you will get 398 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 3: to a little bit later, but I think those are 399 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 3: both spots where if you play this right, you can 400 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 3: have plus money on both fighters and not really worry 401 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 3: about the decision or how it ends up. 402 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 2: With march madness right around the corner. Now is the 403 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 2: perfect time to get yourself an action Pro count, get 404 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,479 Speaker 2: real time picklers from Stucky, access to Sean Kerner's bracket, 405 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:32,439 Speaker 2: and more. With the sixty eight teams in the tournament, 406 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 2: we're dropping the price or an action Pro cap to 407 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 2: just sixty eight dollars for an entire year. Visit actionework 408 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 2: dot com slash March to take advantage of this deal. 409 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 2: You'll be covered for all of March Madness, the NBA, 410 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 2: the upcoming baseball season, plus next college football and NFL seasons. 411 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 2: So don't wait. Visit actionework dot com slash March. To 412 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 2: soigno and say, let's think with the Turner brahamanospot as 413 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 2: I said, this is probably my favorite fight on the card, 414 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:56,399 Speaker 2: and you keat it up. Neither of these guys are 415 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,440 Speaker 2: used to facing somebody as big as them. They normally 416 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 2: have the size advantage over their opponent. Now both facing 417 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 2: a guy who's six' Three turner two inch reach. Advantage, 418 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 2: turner as he, said the power, advantage But bahamondez does 419 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 2: have better. Cardio he's won a five round, decision regionally 420 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 2: better volume across a fifteen minute, fight But turner likelier 421 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:17,679 Speaker 2: to Hurt bahamonde's, EARLY i, Said turner doesn't defense strikes at, 422 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:21,360 Speaker 2: all forty one percent striking. Defense he's super. Hittable bahamond 423 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 2: is probably the more technical guy when it comes down to, 424 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 2: it you, know once they both get a little bit. 425 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:29,880 Speaker 2: TIRED i Like bahamond his. JOB i like his rangefinders 426 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:33,359 Speaker 2: with that teap. Kick turner is super, powerful throws really 427 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,920 Speaker 2: nice combinations when he's, fresh but that, game as you, 428 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 2: said does fall apart as the fight. Extends curious to 429 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 2: see how he approaches this, fight BECAUSE i do think 430 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,879 Speaker 2: he's the stronger, man but ALSO i think he actually 431 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 2: has the grappling upside between the. TWO i know you 432 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,680 Speaker 2: said you like bahamondaz his. Submissions turner has some nice 433 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 2: submission game of his. Own he also went to a new. 434 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:53,919 Speaker 2: Camp i'm curious to see if he mixes in the 435 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:57,239 Speaker 2: grappling early and doesn't strike this one. Out but if 436 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 2: this fight does, EXTEND i do Like bahamonde is the. 437 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 2: LONGER i believe he's eight to one to win in round, 438 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 2: two about ten to one to win in round. Three 439 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 2: i'm considering sprinkling both of those. PROPS i also Like 440 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,919 Speaker 2: bajamndez on the money. LINE i think you'll get a 441 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,920 Speaker 2: better live price after round. One but if he Finishes 442 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 2: turner in round, ONE i wouldn't be super surprised, either 443 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 2: just giving the striking defense on The turner side And 444 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 2: bahamondez is. FINISHED i believe each view his past two 445 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 2: opponents in round, ONE i typically view him as more 446 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 2: of a, builder an attritional, finisher a guy who's gonna 447 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 2: put more volume on people as the fight. Extends but 448 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 2: he is getting guys out of there, early AND i 449 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,399 Speaker 2: think he's showing better fight I q in terms of 450 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 2: avoiding early. Danger so give Me Baha mondes and over 451 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,199 Speaker 2: half Around bahamondez in over one and a half. Rounds 452 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,959 Speaker 2: anything past the three or four minute. MARK i think 453 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:46,120 Speaker 2: this eventually Tips ignacio's. Way, billy any other prop thoughts 454 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 2: on that. FIGHT i know you Like turner on the 455 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 2: money line plus money going. In maybe fight ends by 456 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 2: submission could be a cool way to play this because 457 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 2: they both have, submissions they could you, know latch onto each. 458 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 2: OTHER i want to see what the under is for this. 459 00:20:58,040 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 2: Fight i'm sure it's like out of range from WHERE 460 00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 2: i would play. It in, FACT i do link to 461 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 2: be over if, anything BUT i think this is just 462 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,680 Speaker 2: going to be super high. Paced it's minus two hundred 463 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,399 Speaker 2: and inside the distance plus one fifty to go to a. 464 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 2: Decision is that a path for you on the on the, Total. 465 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 3: YEAH i think. SO i MEAN i think it's more 466 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 3: likely than not tond inside the distance obviously like based 467 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,880 Speaker 3: on those, lines but not not super intrigued on either, 468 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,200 Speaker 3: side especially you, know given the widespread on juice we 469 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 3: have to pay on. Those the only other THING i would, 470 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:27,199 Speaker 3: say not really a prop, thought but the quality of 471 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,199 Speaker 3: competition For turner has been a lot higher Than nacho 472 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 3: throughout THE. Ufc like if you look at the guys he, 473 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 3: Fought Wai kano just fought for a title Beat King. 474 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 3: Green before, That Dan hooker was supposed to be in 475 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 3: the co main, Event Matosh gamrat looked like a possible 476 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 3: tighter title contender for a while and there where they've 477 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,360 Speaker 3: Brought nacho along a little bit. Slower you, know those 478 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 3: first round wins Were Christos chiagos And Manuel, torres not 479 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 3: bad fighters by any, stretch but not you, know the 480 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 3: top five to ten guys That turner his foot has. 481 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,119 Speaker 3: Fought that doesn't mean he's, better but you, know if 482 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 3: we think stuff like the significant strike defense some of those, 483 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 3: numbers it's going to be a little bit, misleading just 484 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 3: based on quality of. 485 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 2: COMPETITION i wanted to talk about The Cuonie blades fight. 486 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 2: BRIEFLY i project value on A risbond. Cunief he's making HIS, 487 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 2: ufcw but he's a slow. Heavyweight he's four inches four 488 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 2: inch discrepancy in terms of the reach. Advantage blades should 489 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:22,240 Speaker 2: be able to outstrike. Him blades is super boring at this, 490 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,639 Speaker 2: point and he has a terrible, chin and you, know 491 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 2: being a more point style fighter with bad chin is 492 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 2: a very bad style to get through heavyweight. MATCHUPS i 493 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:33,719 Speaker 2: make this about minus two fifty an inside the. DISTANCE 494 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 2: i THINK i Make kuonie about plus you twenty, Five 495 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 2: SO i lean inside the. DISTANCE i lean Towards. Cooniev 496 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 2: probably prefer to lay the juice on THE nzd BECAUSE 497 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,440 Speaker 2: i Think blades could just get on top and pound them. 498 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 2: Out but not super excited about on this. Fight curious 499 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,399 Speaker 2: if you have any leans to the underdog or the 500 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 2: ins inside the, distance or if it's just a straight 501 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 2: up past for. 502 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 3: YOU i am not betting this. One i'm going to 503 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,200 Speaker 3: be really heavy On blades FOR dfs because a guy 504 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 3: who averages more than five takedowns per fifteen minutes and 505 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 3: has a on a finishing upside like you. Don't you 506 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 3: don't get that in the same fighter very. Often and 507 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 3: it looks like his ownership is going to be lower 508 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,719 Speaker 3: than the other super expensive, guys which would be Like 509 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 3: Carlos leal Or Mauricio. HOOFY i don't think those guys 510 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:14,919 Speaker 3: are gonna put up big points without you, know a 511 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 3: first round. Knockout blades is just as likely to finish 512 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 3: in the first round and has the takedown. Upside so 513 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 3: no bet for, me But i'll have a lot of 514 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 3: exposure just on THE dfs side With. 515 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 2: Blades let's move to our top props and talk about. 516 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,640 Speaker 2: Them Mauricio hoofy Versus King Green. Fight hoofy is ten 517 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,359 Speaker 2: years younger Than Bobby Bobby. King he's also has a 518 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 2: fore in triagi. Advantage he's much, faster he's more, powerful 519 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,440 Speaker 2: And bobby's striking defense is just getting worse as he's getting. 520 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:42,879 Speaker 2: OLDER i think he's more willing to just like jump 521 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 2: in the pocket and try to. Throw we saw that 522 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,359 Speaker 2: with The Drew dover fight that did not end up 523 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 2: particularly well for, him and it's sort of gotten worse since, 524 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:54,879 Speaker 2: then since that first real BAD ko. Loss he Was 525 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 2: hoofy was super close in his last fight With jamesy On, 526 00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 2: top but he put a bunch of damage on you 527 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,199 Speaker 2: On top, early AND i don't Think green is going 528 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 2: to be able to absorb that damage and keep going Now, 529 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,720 Speaker 2: hoofy he fights another guy who's super, durable is the 530 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 2: fight extens Like King, GREEN i think he could be 531 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 2: in trouble in round three against anybody because his cardio 532 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 2: when he tried to go for a finish and wasn't 533 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 2: able to get, it looked really. Bad AND i don't 534 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,160 Speaker 2: think in general he has great. CARDIO i don't think 535 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 2: he necessarily gassed entirely because he wasn't able to Finish 536 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 2: jamesy On. TOP i just think in general he's a 537 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 2: guy who's going to fade in the back half of 538 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 2: fights and will not like him over five. Rounds so 539 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 2: very exciting fighter gets a lot Of connor McGregor, comparisons 540 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:35,920 Speaker 2: AND i think one in particular is that he's going 541 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 2: to finish a lot of fighters. Early but if he 542 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 2: doesn't get them out of there in the first seven 543 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 2: and a half, minutes the momentum is going to start 544 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,160 Speaker 2: going against them like it typically does in then McGregor. 545 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 2: Fights BUT i Think hoofy By poule counter knockout here 546 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 2: ko minus one of three under one and a half 547 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 2: plus one thirty. Five you could also same game parlay 548 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 2: those together Betten brown one knockout at plus two. NINETY 549 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 2: i think any Early hoofy iterations to finish this fight 550 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 2: plus money or even at slight juice the way to. 551 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 2: Go thoughts on that, Fight, Billy and then we'll get 552 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:06,119 Speaker 2: to some of your top props as. 553 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, well one of my top props is on this. 554 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 3: Fight it's my other knockout prop or i'm, sorry takedown 555 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,360 Speaker 3: prop of the, week and That's King green to get 556 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 3: a takedown at plus two to seventy. FIVE i referenced 557 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 3: his fight With Jayalen turner earlier where he took like 558 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 3: very scary amount of. Damage in the two fights since, 559 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 3: then he's gotten takedowns in both of. Them that was 560 00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 3: Against Jim miller And patty Pimblet ill faded takedown Against 561 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 3: patty Pimblet that was the absolute worst thing to do 562 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 3: Against patty The, batty but he did. It and if 563 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 3: you look back over his. Career we think of him 564 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,160 Speaker 3: as a, striker but he's averaged more than a takedown 565 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,679 Speaker 3: for fifteen minutes in HIS ufc. Run or to phrase that, 566 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 3: differently he averages more takedowns Than Maga mat And. Kalaiev 567 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,120 Speaker 3: who we think of is This, dagistani you, know grappling. 568 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:52,199 Speaker 3: Machine knowing that his card or his chin is a 569 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,119 Speaker 3: bit of an issue and that you can't take a 570 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 3: lot of, damage and you're fighting a guy who's going 571 00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,879 Speaker 3: to be super explosive early on and going to go 572 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,159 Speaker 3: for the, finish might as well try to. Wrestle it 573 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,880 Speaker 3: might not. Work we're getting plus two seventy. Five i'm 574 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,359 Speaker 3: not saying he has the ability to take Down Mariseo, 575 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 3: hoofi but given the odds were, GETTING i think we 576 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 3: just need a desire to justify. That if he attempts 577 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 3: to take, down that turns into a pretty good, bet 578 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,879 Speaker 3: whether we get it or. Not other. Stuff i'm On 579 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 3: Bruno fejeda round one or two at plus two to 580 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,120 Speaker 3: twenty pretty much talked about that it was really close 581 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 3: to Us ko PROP i Think koprop was slightly. HIGHER 582 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 3: i think the odds of him getting an early submission 583 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:31,680 Speaker 3: or a club and sub or whatever against a guy 584 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,200 Speaker 3: who can't grapple are a lot higher than the odds 585 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,480 Speaker 3: of him getting a third round. Knockout So i'll take 586 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,160 Speaker 3: that round one or, two cover the early powder round 587 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 3: two when he comes out, fresh you. 588 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:41,439 Speaker 2: Know the. 589 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,439 Speaker 3: Usual other main card fight the women's fight Between Yasmin 590 00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,879 Speaker 3: lucindo And Amanda. LAIMOSH i did a full breakdown of. 591 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:50,399 Speaker 3: This i'm not going to go too long on, it 592 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 3: But laimosh by knockout Or lusendo by decision is minus 593 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,120 Speaker 3: one twenty. Five if you have been can get. Takedown 594 00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 3: she should control this. Fight, control you, know win pretty 595 00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,479 Speaker 3: easily on the. Judges don't think she Finishes. Lemosh on 596 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,360 Speaker 3: the other, HAND i am very worried That Amanda lemosh 597 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,159 Speaker 3: at thirty, seven still has big power finds the button On. 598 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 3: Lucindo she's been. Hittable she hasn't really been hurt too 599 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,879 Speaker 3: bad so far in THE, ufc but she's you, know 600 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,360 Speaker 3: taken some, damage plays kind of fast and loose with. 601 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 2: Some of the. 602 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 3: MATCHUPS i should say statistically it's not, bad but she's 603 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 3: fought some lower level. Competition Marina hardriguez had her hurt 604 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 3: at multiple points in that. Fight If, rodriguez you, know wobbles. 605 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:31,919 Speaker 3: You Then lemosh is gonna knock you out if you 606 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 3: take the same. Shot so those two combined you get 607 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 3: either one is minus one twenty five at fandel better 608 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 3: odds than we're seeing on you, Know lucindo's money. Line 609 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 3: So i'm going to try to cover both bases. THERE 610 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,920 Speaker 3: i think those are the two likeliest outcomes in that. 611 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 2: Fight, Yeah iMOS one of the biggest hitters have ever 612 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 2: seen at woman's, strawweight carries very significant. Power there is 613 00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:56,719 Speaker 2: a fourteen year age gap though between these two, fighters 614 00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 2: And lemosh has never had good. Cardios SO i do 615 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 2: Like lucindo washer in the second and third, Round lucinda 616 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,880 Speaker 2: live after round. One i'd be a little bit worried 617 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:08,280 Speaker 2: about Your lucindo decision, ticket just BECAUSE i think there's 618 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 2: a chance she could win this in round three with 619 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 2: a significant cardo, advantage especially if she's just thoroughly you, 620 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 2: know washing the fight down the. Stretch but like the 621 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:20,200 Speaker 2: Lamos ko, ANGLE i think that's probably her only path to. 622 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,640 Speaker 2: VICTORY i really don't see her. WINNING i, mean she 623 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,960 Speaker 2: is she has thecent submission skills, too so that's certainly 624 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,720 Speaker 2: live a guillotine something like that after. Takedown but, Yeah 625 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,680 Speaker 2: lemos inside the, Distance lucindo pretty much any other, way 626 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 2: And lucindo live after round. One maybe a same game 627 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 2: parlay With lucindo in the over one and a half 628 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 2: could be a way to go if you can get 629 00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 2: a decent price adjustment on. That let's move on to 630 00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 2: our best. Bets you're going with the first fight on the, 631 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 2: Card Jordan santos Versus Ozzy. DIAZ i agree with you 632 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 2: on this. Pick i'm probably gonna end up joining you 633 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 2: On Jordan. Santos why do you like them on the money? 634 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 3: Line, WELL i will say this is certainly a final 635 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 3: bet that's by far not my. FAVORITE i WISH i 636 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 3: had better analysis than, This but Like Ozzi diaz is 637 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 3: just he's NOT ufc. Level he's, decent his skills are, 638 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:11,160 Speaker 3: Okay he's a thirty four year, old not a great, 639 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 3: athlete just kind of looks a step slower anytime you 640 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 3: see him out there WITH ufc level. Guys you, know 641 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 3: knocked out By Joe pifer and the great B Joe 642 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 3: pifer moment we all, remember just destroyed By Mingyang chang 643 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 3: in his last. Fight he had these, skills like the 644 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,840 Speaker 3: skill set to do well at a regional level against, 645 00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 3: other you, know not super, athletic not high level, guys 646 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,560 Speaker 3: but he just doesn't look good out there against anyone 647 00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 3: ELSE'S ufc. Caliber hard to say for sure That Jordan 648 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 3: santos is that, guy BUT i was really high On Will, 649 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 3: curry who he beat over fifteen minutes on The contender. 650 00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 3: SERIES i Thought Will curry was gonna win that fight 651 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,480 Speaker 3: and be like a decent, prospect And santos made it 652 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 3: look relatively. Easy so just by kind of transitive property, 653 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 3: There i'm okay with laying the roughly minus two to 654 00:29:57,760 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 3: one On Jordan santos. 655 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,040 Speaker 2: As coming down from two oh five to one. Five 656 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 2: he is taller four inches taller forour inchre each, advantage 657 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,400 Speaker 2: BUT i Think santos is much better durability much. Better 658 00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 2: cardio could be a good live bet after round one 659 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 2: if he is competitive for the opening. ROUND i Think 660 00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 2: santos definitely takes this one down the. Stretch another GUY 661 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,000 Speaker 2: i like to win in rounds two or three or 662 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 2: the same gay parlay with the over one and a 663 00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:23,479 Speaker 2: half over two and a, half maybe by decision as, 664 00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:27,520 Speaker 2: well but any iteration Of santos and late props in that. 665 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 2: Fight my best bet other side of a fight That 666 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,560 Speaker 2: billy talked about, earlier That Bruno fajara fight Versus Armed. 667 00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,480 Speaker 2: Bee Trojan fajara is a very public pick this, week 668 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 2: a very public. Underdog sixty five percent of my public 669 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,280 Speaker 2: data sample selecting for to win this. Fight petrojan coming 670 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:48,440 Speaker 2: off of that double backfist knockout loss against the Bad 671 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:55,000 Speaker 2: pirate magmatic. Bullet, yeah share a. Bullet so the Bad, 672 00:30:55,040 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 2: PIRATE i MEAN mvp fraud checked him. Hard Uh So arman, 673 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 2: here as you Know billy, said is the bigger man fortress, 674 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 2: taller But bruno does have a one inch reach advantage 675 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:09,040 Speaker 2: and the striking, Exchanges he's going to carry more. Power 676 00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 2: but Be trojan is the more technical, man AND i 677 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,400 Speaker 2: like him being back in the bigger cage. Here he 678 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:16,520 Speaker 2: wasn't a bigger cage against that cher of, bullfight but 679 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 2: just in, general he's been stuck in the small cage 680 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:23,080 Speaker 2: sometimes gotten into. Wars That hobocop fight was absolutely. Nuts 681 00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,000 Speaker 2: that's one of the best fights we've had in the 682 00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,200 Speaker 2: past few. Years go back and watch that one if 683 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,640 Speaker 2: you just want a glorious war between two guys in the. 684 00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,440 Speaker 2: Apex nobody there root for it, is you, know going 685 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,720 Speaker 2: to the. Death but For, haara you, know for my, 686 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:38,640 Speaker 2: money AND i think this is where we disagree on the. Fight, 687 00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:42,040 Speaker 2: BILLY i don't Think fajara is super. DURABLE i actually 688 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:45,720 Speaker 2: view their durability relatively. Equal BUT i Get betrojian a 689 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 2: big cardio, advantage SO i Think farira first half of the, 690 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 2: fight you, know he carries his power to actually pretty, 691 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 2: late SO i wouldn't be surprised by any time. Knockout 692 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 2: but Once betrojian settles into the, fight once he starts winning, 693 00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 2: MINUTES i do think it goes downhill from. There So 694 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,680 Speaker 2: patrosian live after round, one you, know As billy kind of, 695 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,480 Speaker 2: said may be the best price on the favorite because 696 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,240 Speaker 2: the line may flip after round. One For harrah's best 697 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,920 Speaker 2: round is likely the opening. Frame But armin live after round, 698 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 2: ONE i think by decision of plus two forty probably 699 00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 2: a value bet minus three and a half on the 700 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 2: point spread could be interesting BECAUSE i do get both 701 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:23,240 Speaker 2: guys relatively equal finishing, upside BUT i do Think arman 702 00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,479 Speaker 2: has much more decision. Equity but, yeah just in, General, 703 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:30,360 Speaker 2: ARMAN i think is undervalued this week because the public 704 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 2: is so heavily skewed Towards, tahara AND i get it 705 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,600 Speaker 2: because pre fight round one plus money is enticing on 706 00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:38,840 Speaker 2: a guy who's probably going to have his best success. 707 00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,880 Speaker 2: Early So petrosian live after round, one but also taking 708 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,520 Speaker 2: some pre fight at minus one thirty Five, BILLY a 709 00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 2: couple of other fights we didn't get to you on this. 710 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,120 Speaker 2: Card three fights we didn't get to you on this. 711 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 2: Card one in, PARTICULAR i want to talk about before 712 00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 2: we get out of. Here Josh Van Race saruja, Fight 713 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:56,440 Speaker 2: Super Definary suria a really good. Grappler van good at 714 00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 2: resisting grapplers early and then coming back with the, boxing 715 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,120 Speaker 2: putting damage on them in the second or third. ROUNDS 716 00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,400 Speaker 2: i think most people see this As saria via early 717 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 2: submission Or van via round two or round three knockout 718 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 2: with the. Volume do you view got very? Similarly if, 719 00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,440 Speaker 2: not tell me, Why but how are you planning on 720 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:13,840 Speaker 2: betting this? 721 00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:14,280 Speaker 3: Fight if at? 722 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:14,440 Speaker 1: All? 723 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 3: YEAH i don't have a lot of faith in Ray 724 00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:20,960 Speaker 3: uria to actually get that submission. Early he is a world, 725 00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,760 Speaker 3: Class olympic level wrestler who's kind of sort of DOING, 726 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:27,520 Speaker 3: mma but he's really just wrestling with little gloves, on 727 00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,360 Speaker 3: not that he can't get finishes against lower level guys or. 728 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,400 Speaker 3: Whatever you, know he's knocked out some people or submitted 729 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 3: some people on the road to THE. UFC i don't 730 00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 3: put a lot of credence in that when you're fighting 731 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,080 Speaker 3: a guy like Josh, van not one That i'm. Betting 732 00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 3: this is another FIGHT i really like for, dfs especially cash, 733 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:47,040 Speaker 3: games because If saruya gets finished The syria, SIDE i should, 734 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,320 Speaker 3: say If saruya gets, finished it's probably later, on and 735 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 3: he probably got some takedowns early and put up a decent, 736 00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,360 Speaker 3: floor and if he, wins he probably got seventy six 737 00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,920 Speaker 3: takedowns in the fight and has a massive score and 738 00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:00,920 Speaker 3: you're not worried about. It but not a lot of 739 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:02,760 Speaker 3: cheap GUYS i, Like and this is one that really 740 00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:06,800 Speaker 3: makes a lot of lineups. Work so AGAIN i, think you, 741 00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:08,440 Speaker 3: know IF i really really had to take the money 742 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:10,680 Speaker 3: line side at the, price it would probably Be serulia 743 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:12,919 Speaker 3: and then try to come back on Josh Van live. 744 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 3: Afterwards BUT i just want my exposure via DFAs because 745 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,840 Speaker 3: the floor is really. High there's some upside, there but 746 00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:21,759 Speaker 3: you might not even need the upside just given the 747 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,319 Speaker 3: way this slate is working, out just for we got out. 748 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,040 Speaker 2: HERE i do want to mention The John Castaa Chris kutierra's. 749 00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:28,960 Speaker 2: Fight it's about to pick. THEM i don't think either 750 00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:31,440 Speaker 2: of us have any particular betting thoughts on, it But 751 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,200 Speaker 2: castaeda likely is the grappling. Upside, HOWEVER i do want 752 00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:36,759 Speaker 2: to point Out gutierra's his recent fights have been in the. 753 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,880 Speaker 2: Apex the full size octagon should be much better for his. 754 00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:43,399 Speaker 2: Style in, general he has That William gomes. Style he's 755 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 2: going to touch, You he's going to run away land some. 756 00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,440 Speaker 2: Volume if he can avoid the grappling From, CASTAEDA i 757 00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,200 Speaker 2: think he wins the. Fight he's the younger, man he 758 00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,839 Speaker 2: should be. Faster BUT i Think castadaeda has to take 759 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:56,920 Speaker 2: down upside and the grappling. Upside so no bet for you, there, Right. Billy, 760 00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:58,520 Speaker 2: NO i want. 761 00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,440 Speaker 3: A bet it On Chris. GUTIERS i just can't like 762 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,239 Speaker 3: the fight came together so. Late you don't know what 763 00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,040 Speaker 3: either guy was up to or how this got. Here 764 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,239 Speaker 3: that's enough to scare me. OFF i like a. WAPA 765 00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,080 Speaker 3: i wish he went back to just being like a 766 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 3: late kick. MACHINE i kind of get why he didn't 767 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,839 Speaker 3: because sometimes the judges don't roar that the same. Way 768 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:15,400 Speaker 3: but he was so much fun when he's doing. That 769 00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:17,800 Speaker 3: he was just like many Justin gatgee at that. POINT 770 00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:20,560 Speaker 3: i haven't really seen that out of him in recent. 771 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,440 Speaker 3: FIGHTS i do think the Big kje angle is a good, 772 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,719 Speaker 3: point THOUGH i did not consider that when looking at 773 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:26,120 Speaker 3: his last. 774 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,600 Speaker 2: Couple, yeah If gutierras loses this, one he may go 775 00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,680 Speaker 2: from A ufc main event to getting cut in a 776 00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,319 Speaker 2: matter of three. Fights not a big, finisher doesn't have 777 00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,759 Speaker 2: the most exciting, style and they've really moved him down 778 00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:42,520 Speaker 2: the card and like clearly their their own internal power 779 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:46,640 Speaker 2: rankings based upon his recent, performances so trying to give 780 00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,520 Speaker 2: him tougher, MATCHUPS i. Think but this was a short 781 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,919 Speaker 2: notice fight that came together, late so you, know it's 782 00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 2: hard to say who accepted it second between. Them but 783 00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:56,279 Speaker 2: that'll do it for A uc betting. Preview you can 784 00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,520 Speaker 2: find MORE ufc content for Both billy and myself both 785 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:01,880 Speaker 2: On action and in The Action network, App and if 786 00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,000 Speaker 2: you'd like to instantly tail some of the bets that 787 00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 2: we discussed today on the, show look out for the 788 00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,240 Speaker 2: quick slip links both in the podcast and the video, 789 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:13,040 Speaker 2: description or visit actionnetwork dot com slash bet right. Now 790 00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:15,839 Speaker 2: don't forget to download the free ord Winning Action network 791 00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,480 Speaker 2: app and sign up For Action pro for immediate access 792 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,880 Speaker 2: to expert picks and. Analysis best of luck with your 793 00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,000 Speaker 2: bests this, weekend enjoy the. Violence thank you for. 794 00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:37,400 Speaker 3: Listening Action network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you 795 00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,399 Speaker 3: or someone you care about has a gambling, problem help 796 00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:43,200 Speaker 3: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred 797 00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 3: gambler