1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Yeah exactly. And of course, 7 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: those higher oil prices just feeding into the inflationary narrative. 8 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: So let's get more on that now with Jeffrey Cleveland. 9 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 1: He's chief economist at Peyton and Regal. So, Jeff, I 10 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: don't know how much of Lisa and Ice conversation you 11 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: just heard there, but talking about the inflationary forces at 12 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 1: work in this economy, do you think that central banks, 13 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: like the FED or underestimating it? Still? I know, I 14 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: don't think so. I think this is, you know, very 15 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:54,279 Speaker 1: difficult topic and popular talkic topic among investors. But um, 16 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: and there's a lot of noise. So, but you have 17 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 1: to go back to taking in and maybe a longer 18 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: term perspective commodity prices. The price of oil, for example, 19 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:07,039 Speaker 1: doesn't tend to give forecasters such as ourselves a good 20 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 1: lead on where inflation will be in you know, a 21 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: year's time, and I think central banks know that, you know, 22 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: and they're taking that into consideration. Although this is really 23 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: dangerous to say, these are I think the four this 24 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 1: time is different for most dangerous words in the economics profession. 25 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: The idea here that we have oil prices that are 26 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: climbing at a time when supplies might not naturally increase 27 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 1: to compensate this. The business case has changed in an 28 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: era that's trying to decarbonize. How much does that change 29 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: the pack drop for you? You know, it does, It's 30 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: a it's a factor. But I think I always come 31 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: back to Okay, when you're talking about inflation, you're talking 32 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: about a general increase in all prices, right, You're you're 33 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: not just talking about particular sectors. And if you know, 34 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: what we're seeing is driven more by the supply side, 35 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: which is the case in a lot of areas. We 36 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: did our our chart of the we for example, on 37 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: natural gas prices on Friday, and you know, there are 38 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: some very interesting supply side stories there that I think 39 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 1: explain a big chunk of the move. If it's coming 40 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: from the supply side, I don't think that's inflation. That's 41 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:16,639 Speaker 1: really the key. It's it's something you know, idiosyncratic, and 42 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 1: it seems like, you know. The difficulty right now is 43 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: we have a bunch of these types of stories piling 44 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: up all at once, right, So you have you have 45 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: the crude oil stories, you have natural gas, we have 46 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: bottlenecks and all kinds of areas. I attribute that this 47 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 1: is just a very unique macro environment. Um. But I 48 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: still would caution investors from jumping to the conclusion that 49 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 1: we're going to have a persistent inflation from here. Um. 50 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 1: I think you can fall back on some pretty good 51 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: reliable indicators. One we got on Friday, for example, in 52 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: the US in that Personal Income and Spending Report, the 53 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: Dallas Fed tabulates the trimmed me um PC. It's an 54 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: alternative core inflation measure, and it's hanging in there right 55 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,399 Speaker 1: around two percent year over year. And I think that's 56 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 1: where when the dust settles on all of this, we 57 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,079 Speaker 1: will we will see consumer prices right around that two 58 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 1: to three range. Well. And a huge question within this, Jeffrey, 59 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 1: is how much wages are rising to meet higher prices 60 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: on pretty much everything you can think of at the 61 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,920 Speaker 1: pump at the grocery store on your holiday gifts. We 62 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,519 Speaker 1: obviously have the jobs report coming up on Friday. I 63 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: would argue it's going to be a pretty big one, 64 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 1: given September is supposed to be the month where kids 65 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: are back at school, those additional unemployment benefits have rolled off. 66 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,640 Speaker 1: It's supposed to be the great return to the labor market. 67 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: Do you think that actually materialized. I'm a little skeptical. 68 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 1: I think, you know, we saw a very weak August 69 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 1: report that was driven in large part the slowdown and 70 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: leisure in hospitality. I don't know, you know, just anecdotally 71 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: walking around Los Angeles, for example, if we saw a 72 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: big surgeon hiring in the month of September, I think 73 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 1: we're still under the you know, the weight of the 74 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: pandemic of the variant, at least of the September data. 75 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: So maybe that story will have to wait for in 76 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 1: the fall. I hope full that uh, I'm wrong and 77 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 1: in the labor marks at back bounce back much more quickly. 78 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 1: On the wage question, though, that that you brought up, 79 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 1: I think it's a really essential one and the only 80 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: thing I could say I would urge investors um again 81 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: to look at the Atlanta fed wage tracker, and you 82 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 1: can break down the different categories by you know, income level, 83 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 1: by hourly versus non hourly workers, and I think what 84 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 1: you'll find is we are seeing wage pressure, no doubt, 85 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 1: but it is confined mostly to UM you know, the 86 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: lower wage tiers of the spectrum. So definitely seen a 87 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: lot of upside pressure there on wages that is UM 88 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 1: that is you know that affects businesses, that affects small 89 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 1: and medium sized businesses. Yes, But if you look at 90 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 1: the broader wage trends UM. You can look at a 91 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: median you know, wage growth, it's still running three to 92 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 1: four for an um UM. Nothing worrisome in terms of 93 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 1: wage price spirals. So I think investors again that we're 94 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,720 Speaker 1: we're trying to look out a year from now and 95 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: and understand where inflation might be. The wage data is 96 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: not telling us a worrisome longer term story. If you 97 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 1: recall the nineties, I'm sure you do write we had 98 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 1: five or six percent medium wage growth and we still 99 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: had moderate inflation right around two to three. So you 100 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: can even see wage growth take up from here, which 101 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:19,159 Speaker 1: I hope it does, and and still not have a 102 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,359 Speaker 1: runaway inflation story, which really raises the issue Jeffrey, of 103 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 1: how much is being priced in that is that I 104 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: dread using this word because I will get hate males 105 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 1: tag inflation and how much this is just sort of 106 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: a new reflationary trade that basically have gone past the 107 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:37,599 Speaker 1: peak reflation and we're now heading into a normalization. And frankly, 108 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 1: it is choppy with higher prices. It sometimes uh than growth, 109 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: and and sort of this mismatch in how things come 110 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:49,160 Speaker 1: back online. How you distinguish between those two scenarios which 111 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:52,359 Speaker 1: are very different, with one not leading to an expansion, 112 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: the other one leading to an expansion that's just more 113 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 1: tempered when you speak with your fellow with your your 114 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:02,039 Speaker 1: fellow members of paid and regal. Yeah, I think you're right. 115 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 1: We did see growth peak in the second quarter. We 116 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: definitely saw slower growth in the US in the third quarter. 117 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 1: We've shaved our our GDP estimant for the full year 118 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 1: now too. We started at seven point four for we're 119 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 1: down to five point five, so we've shaved growth. So 120 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: growth has sload. Is it stagflation though? I don't think so. 121 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 1: I think it's really tough to do this, But there's 122 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: so much noise right now. Growth slowing to you know, 123 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:29,599 Speaker 1: for the year five and a half percent. To me, 124 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,720 Speaker 1: that's not stagflation. The reason you have to go back, 125 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 1: I think to answer your questions directly, why, what's what's 126 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 1: causing this? You know, we think it is pandemic related. 127 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 1: We think it is bottlenecks on the supply side that 128 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: have knocked down our growth estimates, and some of that 129 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: we will we will get payback on in two we think. 130 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:51,719 Speaker 1: So it's it's not a more you know, worried. Where 131 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: we would get more worried, I guess on the growth 132 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:55,840 Speaker 1: front is if it was demand had swumped off, and 133 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 1: that's not really what you know, we think we're seeing here. 134 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 1: Demands you know, particularly from sumers and households will remain 135 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 1: very very strong, we think um throughout this rest of 136 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 1: the year and into two UM. So it's it's not 137 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: a demand flump type story. It's you know, it sees 138 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: idiosyncratic supply side things that are holding back growth. So 139 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: that that's one part of it. Just discerning okay, what 140 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: is driving the slowdown that we're seeing. And then the inflation, 141 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: you know, is inflation and remain elevated um, you know, 142 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: on a sustain basis more than a couple of quarters. 143 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: And we think the answer, again, as as I labored already, 144 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: is no, So we don't. I can't put myself in 145 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 1: the stagflation camp quite yet. All right, Jeffrey, I want 146 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 1: to ask you you were talking about all the noise 147 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 1: that's out there. There certainly has been a lot of 148 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: noise down in Washington, d C. I know that's pretty 149 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: much always the case, but it seems like it's gotten 150 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 1: a lot louder as of late. You have the ongoing 151 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: question mark around the dead ceiling, you have discussions around 152 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 1: the infrastructure package really at a stalemate now in October 153 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 1: thirty one deadline. How would it change your view on 154 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 1: the U. S. Economy if we don't see that trillions 155 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: of dollars in longer term economic expending materializing. Well, I 156 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: think we will get something done. I can't tell you 157 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 1: when it's impossible to figure that out, but I don't 158 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: think it's going to be the three and a half 159 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: trillion so to the extent it And it does seem, 160 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 1: you know, when you look at the headlines and market movements, 161 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: market is sort of fixated on that three and a 162 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 1: half trillion dollar number, and that could disappoint UM some 163 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: investors if we don't get it, um, you know, I don't. 164 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to get that that number 165 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: for us though, the big fiscal pulse already happened. You know, 166 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:32,439 Speaker 1: we're already on the other side of it. You look 167 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: at transfers to households, you can look at you know, 168 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 1: quarter over quarter UM those were actually down in the 169 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: second quarter relative to a year ago because we saw 170 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: this huge surgeon in spending. Our transfer as the household 171 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 1: that's done and for us that that's really the more 172 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 1: critical question. UM. Households. Fortunately, you know, they're they're being 173 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: you know, they're going back into employment. They still have 174 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,079 Speaker 1: pretty ample savings, so that will be good. But the 175 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: big party in terms of the fiscal side, I think 176 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 1: it's done. So that's I think something to keep in 177 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 1: mind for investors to you know, the death ceiling is important. Well, 178 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 1: you know, I guess we're playing, um a game of 179 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: brinksmanship here and it probably lasts you know, into mid 180 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: October membe later. Ultimately, we think that does get resolved, 181 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: perhaps something similar to what we saw in I think 182 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 1: the other Washington story though, is the FED, the FED board, 183 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: the possible departure of Jerome Powell, and then two other 184 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 1: spots that look like they're going to open up, and 185 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 1: that could change, that could change. I think what that 186 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: gives you is a little a more dubbish FED um 187 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:39,199 Speaker 1: And if that's right, that is more important I think 188 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: for for markets for risk assets than you know, the 189 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: death ceiling or you know, I hate to say it 190 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 1: to my political strategist, but I think that will the 191 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: FED will ultimately be more important than the size of 192 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: the fiscal UH build the budget that ultimately ultimately they 193 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: get decided on monetary policy for the win. Thank you 194 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 1: so much, Jeffrey Cleveland, he's chief a anonymists at Payton 195 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:06,559 Speaker 1: and Regal. There is, of course the big elephant in 196 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 1: the room for anyone who covers markets right now. It 197 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 1: is inflation. What your viewpoint on it will determine much 198 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 1: of how you position for it. However, which way is 199 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 1: up in the air in terms of depending on who 200 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 1: you speak with. We're going to speak right now with 201 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: Efan Devit, chief investment officer at Monida with twenty seven 202 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: point four billion dollars of assets under management. Even before 203 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: we get into your inflation call, how do you use 204 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: this to shape what you want to buy. Inflation is 205 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: something we look at always as a part of the 206 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 1: factors that drive where our portfolio should be positioned. Our 207 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,959 Speaker 1: goal is that our client portfolios should be resilient too 208 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,959 Speaker 1: many risks, in particular inflation. So we look at the 209 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 1: different components of that portfolios, such as equities and real assets, 210 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 1: and want to ensure that we have enough diversification into them, 211 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 1: because some have explicit linkage to inflation, such as real 212 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: assets and real estate, and then some have de fact 213 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 1: um positive correlation to inflation, such as equities. Well, let's 214 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: talk about some of those equities. The NASAC one hundred 215 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,559 Speaker 1: is now down two percent on the day. We can 216 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: maybe attribute some of that too higher yields. How do 217 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 1: you think about technology in the place it does or 218 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: does not have in your portfolio right now? Technology will 219 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 1: always be a huge components for our portfolio, particularly because 220 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 1: many clients will have exposure to large cap stocks, and 221 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: quite frankly, the Fangs have really comprised such a large 222 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 1: percentage and increasingly large percentage of those large cap portfolios. 223 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: So it is a lynch pin, and we actually saw 224 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: that they performed very well. Obviously, we spoke your earlier 225 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: guests about to stay at home stocks and how they 226 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:41,200 Speaker 1: really were quite resilient throughout the COVID crisis, and any 227 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 1: time there's a crisis of confidence, they do seem to rebound. 228 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 1: So technology will always have a huge component there. We 229 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: do let look to have balanced portfolios across the course, 230 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 1: across growth and value. But the fact that with technology 231 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:56,359 Speaker 1: and interest rates, if anybody does use a DCS valuation, 232 00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: as interest rates rise, well that will make the future 233 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 1: earnings looked up at st and technology. So that seems 234 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: to be part of the correlation that we're seeing. What 235 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: do you how do you view the sort of decline 236 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,320 Speaker 1: that we saw last week that's carrying over to today. 237 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: Is this the beginning of something bigger or is this 238 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 1: a blip that you want to dig in and kind 239 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: of start buying. I do think it is not the 240 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 1: beginning of something bigger, because what we're seeing is a 241 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: tremendous amount of assets on the sidelines. They've been sitting 242 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: there waiting to get exposure to equities. And what we 243 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: see is at every time there is a correction and 244 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 1: equity markets or even just just a blip, as you say, 245 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 1: or just crisis of confidence. It doesn't last very long. 246 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 1: And that's the real phenomenon of the current cycle, is 247 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 1: that none of these adjustments last for very long. Because 248 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 1: there's such a large amount of money on the sidelines 249 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: looking to go in. Why where do the sentiments dip 250 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 1: come from? Certainly there's a lot of backdrop now in 251 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 1: terms of both geopolitical concerns we're looking globally, we've seen 252 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 1: the specter of a large scale default. There's a political gridlock. Again. 253 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: The news on the virus seems to be moderating, and 254 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 1: that probably is has not really factored into to send months, 255 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 1: but certainly that the tech news you mentioned earlier around Facebook, 256 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: that is just a reminder of the ability for regulatory 257 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 1: twip flash to occur, not just in China, but also here. Well, 258 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 1: I'm so glad you brought up China because we continue 259 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: to watch the evergrand saga unfold day by day by day, 260 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 1: and it's that's sprinkling not the only issue you have 261 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 1: to worry about there. You have the ongoing regulatory crackdown, 262 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: you have a broader slow down and economic growth. How 263 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 1: do you think about China right now and the risk 264 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: that it poses. Certainly we've had to completely rethink how 265 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: we think about China as a source of risk. There 266 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: is even a suggestion among some commentators that China has 267 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,319 Speaker 1: become uninvestable. Such has been the frequency of these negative 268 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: surprises that we've seen time and time again. It seems 269 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: every week there is a negative surprise. What I would 270 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 1: say is that China is only going to be a 271 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 1: portion of an emerging markets allocation, and even emerging markets 272 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 1: is only a portion of a non US allocation. So 273 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 1: it really is quite risk controlled within a portfolio. And 274 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 1: as for whether that is sustained as that portion, well 275 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: that really remains to be seen. Certainly, the risk reward 276 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 1: has changed dramatically, and what we can see for China 277 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 1: is just as it was first in and first as 278 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 1: of the pandemic. It can certainly be a harbinger for 279 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:12,839 Speaker 1: the concerns that would perhaps be more global and the 280 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: ever ground is a great example. And then some traders 281 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,960 Speaker 1: in this market have never seen at any kind of 282 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 1: a large scale default of that nature. The last time 283 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: we saw it was an O eight, and many people's 284 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 1: whole careers have been built in so eight. So that 285 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: simply is a reminder of just the specter of a 286 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 1: large scale default, what it can look like, and how 287 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 1: it can it can ripple through the system, not just 288 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: for other real estate developers, but for banks financial institutions 289 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: as well. It is a salutary reminder, I believe, of 290 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 1: some of the risks that can actually be there bubbling 291 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: onto the surface. Are you more concerned about the financial 292 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: risk here or the economic risk of a slowdown in 293 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: China percolating through the entire ecosystem, through the supply chain 294 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:54,479 Speaker 1: disruptions and other sort of transmissions that are more insidious 295 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 1: and slow moving. Certainly, I would say that the impact 296 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 1: of a slowdown a it's going to be less felt 297 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 1: over here. The US has been the engine of developed 298 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 1: market markets for some time, and I don't see a 299 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 1: slow down in China as really having tremendous round applications. Here, 300 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 1: We've already had a significant change in the trade conditions, 301 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 1: and that is it's likely to persist. So I don't 302 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: see that the US is particularly dependent on China. But 303 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 1: certainly China does affect the fortunes of the surrounding emerging markets, 304 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 1: and for that reason, any slow down there would just 305 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 1: be poor for global growth alright. Efan devit Cio of 306 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 1: Monetta giving us her market outlook and her take on 307 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: inflation at least of the China story. Getting a little 308 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: bit more interested today when you talk about the trade 309 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 1: narrative that even just brought up. We obviously got some 310 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 1: harsher words out of the Biden administration. We're waiting for 311 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: the US trade representative to speak, uh later on today, 312 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: but basically saying they're not holding up their end of 313 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 1: the bargain when it comes to be as one deal. 314 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: And right now we are looking at markets that are 315 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: going deeper into the red. And just now, Gayley is 316 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 1: you just pointed out a headline crossing the New York 317 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 1: City says that end of school staff is vaccinated following 318 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 1: the mandate that went to effect today. The teachers had 319 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: to be at least have gotten their first shot, otherwise 320 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 1: they could be put on leave, and they're saying that 321 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 1: they've got in compliance. Interesting to see, really, you know, 322 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: being sort of on the precipice of this debate of mandates. Yeah, absolutely, 323 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: and you're seeing it play out so differently in different 324 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 1: states and different sectors where there have been more legal 325 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: challenges to this. But it's pretty remarkable the jump we 326 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 1: have seen in vaccination rates as soon as a mandate 327 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 1: goes into place. Some of the hospital systems had vaccination 328 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 1: rates around and now they're also in the nineties as well, 329 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 1: now that you've put people's jobs on the line. So 330 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: it is something that is working, even for all of 331 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: the debate that's around it. And this really translates into 332 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: just where we are and coming out of the pandemic 333 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 1: and how this translates to a market call as we 334 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: do seem to be on the downward swing in the 335 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 1: number of cases and hospitalizations. Ryan Jacob has to evaluate 336 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: this along with the FED, along with debt ceiling debate, 337 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: along with all of the mess uh in Washington, d C. 338 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 1: And beyond all the way to China, a c i 339 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: O of the Jacob Internet Fund talking here with us. 340 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 1: And the reason Ryan why I say that is because 341 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 1: you kind of have to dovetail a rates call a 342 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 1: global macroeconomic picture with your view on tech. More than ever, 343 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 1: how do you sort of gauge this connection between rates 344 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 1: and the tech sector. Well, I do think we're a 345 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 1: bit in the minority and that we're not that concerned 346 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 1: about higher rates for our particular portfolios. Whether it's the 347 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,439 Speaker 1: et F of the mutual funds because we tend to 348 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 1: focus on smaller MidCap tech companies. UH. In terms of 349 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: the large higher interest rates, we're really seeing more of 350 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 1: an impact on the large and mega cab technology companies 351 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 1: that quite frankly, we'll have more difficult time overcoming the 352 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 1: headwind of higher rates in terms of revenue and earnings 353 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: growth more of the companies We focus on our higher 354 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:02,880 Speaker 1: growth companies and should be about to overcome it. Basically, Well, 355 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 1: there's the rates headwind. There's also a China headwind for technology. 356 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 1: Ryan and I was looking through some of the holdings 357 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,880 Speaker 1: of your fun and saw that Ali Baba Intencent are 358 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 1: in there. How worried are you about that crackdown that's 359 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: happening in China. Does that make you want to rethink 360 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 1: some of those holdings. Well, we have been shareholders in 361 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: Chinese companies for over fifteen years now, so we've seen 362 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 1: a lot of highs and lows. Admittedly, this is probably 363 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: one of the low points that we've seen in terms 364 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: of um, you know, what's happening in China and the 365 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 1: ramifications for these companies. H And admittedly we had cut 366 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,280 Speaker 1: back our positions considerably. They're probably two of our smallest 367 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: positions at this point, um, and quite frankly, until conditions 368 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 1: improve or we see it, uh, you know, I doubt 369 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:47,360 Speaker 1: will increase our allocations. What type of technology companies are 370 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 1: you seeing as the greatest opportunity at a time when 371 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 1: we already have priced in some of the shift to 372 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 1: working from home, where we already have priced in some 373 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,679 Speaker 1: of the Internet prowess of the likes of Google and 374 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:00,119 Speaker 1: Facebook and sort of the dominance that they have, are 375 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: what types of tech should we be looking for? Well, 376 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,400 Speaker 1: that is the biggest challenge this year. Which companies can 377 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 1: build on the success of last year, uh, and which 378 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,719 Speaker 1: companies will have a fall offer kind of come off 379 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: a bit of a sugar high in terms of the 380 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 1: impact of their business. And so the companies we're focusing 381 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,880 Speaker 1: on are the ones where broader adoption has been accomplished 382 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 1: and now we've see an acceleration and that's that's what 383 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 1: we've seen across our portfolio. So, um, you know, there's 384 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 1: a host of names that really fall in that category, 385 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: but it's a very very tricky environment. Well, give us 386 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: some of those names, Ryan, Can you get specific which 387 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 1: companies in particular, are most fascinating to you right now? Well, 388 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: you know one of the companies, it's one of our 389 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 1: larger positions. Optimized r X basically has electronic health record, 390 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 1: advertising and communication services. So this is something that the 391 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: drug companies were very interested in pre COVID. Once COVID 392 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 1: hit and sales reps could no longer go out no 393 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 1: more industry conferences or events, they allocated more money to 394 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 1: digital and across different platforms. Optimized benefited from that, and 395 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:05,719 Speaker 1: then I think when a lot of the drug companies 396 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 1: realized the returns they were getting from these investments. Uh, 397 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 1: they've been basically accelerating ever since, even even with the 398 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 1: prospect of going back to more traditional methods to advertise 399 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:22,400 Speaker 1: their products. UM and optimizes seeing that the bump last 400 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,640 Speaker 1: year and now an acceleration in their pipeline this year, Ryan, 401 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 1: before I let you go, when you take a step back, 402 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 1: everyone wants to be a tech company. McDonald's wants to 403 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: be a tech company. Who doesn't want to say that 404 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 1: they are on the cutting edge of what's next. How 405 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: do you parse out what actually fits with your band aid? 406 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 1: It's a great question, um, because every company incorporates tech 407 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: and it's it's very it's not an experimental part of 408 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,680 Speaker 1: their budget. It's poor to what they do. So um, 409 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 1: it's becoming harder and harder. The fund is the Jacob 410 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: Internet Fund, the mutual fund, but now every you know 411 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,399 Speaker 1: that was launched over twenty years ago and things have 412 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: changed and involved and h it is a constant challenge. 413 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: It actually widens the investment universe for us. So actually 414 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 1: in some ways it's been helpful. Alright, Ryan Jacob ce 415 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,640 Speaker 1: io of the Jacob Internet Fund talking to us about 416 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 1: all things technology, Thank you so much. Kind of right now, 417 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: I want to shift to one area that has been hot, 418 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: and that has been commodities. And the interesting thing is 419 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 1: that we have seen stock sell off, we've seen bond 420 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 1: sell off in the past month. The one outlier has 421 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: been oil. What has not been an outlier gold. It 422 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 1: still is not acting materially as a hedge. Perhaps it's 423 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 1: up a little bit today, but in general has not. 424 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,919 Speaker 1: What gives when can this act as a traditional hedge 425 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 1: against volatility? Ashraf Rizve probably is wondering at the same 426 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: thing and probably has an answer, Chief executive officer and 427 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 1: founder of Gilded, joining us here in h New York 428 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 1: right now, Ashrof, can you give us a sense of 429 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 1: the dynamic behind gold and why it hasn't benefited from 430 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,080 Speaker 1: the risk off feel in both stocks and bonds over 431 00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 1: the past month. Sure, thanks for having me on the program. UM. 432 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 1: I think gold is is caught in this UM comparison 433 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: of is it inflation? UM. I think most people believe 434 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: that we are seeing inflation, whether it's transitory or not. 435 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: UM the impact of potentially real interest rates going up 436 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 1: with the taper UM. Physical demand of course has been increasing, 437 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 1: but the dollar has been strengthening as well. So the 438 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 1: combination of these four factors it's kind of gotten golden 439 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 1: a bit of a quagmire where it can't decide whether 440 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,399 Speaker 1: it's really going up or down. That being said, I 441 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: think we know that historically it has over long periods 442 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:43,360 Speaker 1: of time done very well UM, whether it's an inflation 443 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,719 Speaker 1: environment or in a even in a deflation environment, particularly 444 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 1: now that we're suffering through this UH significant increase in 445 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: debt that's happening all across the world by governments. So 446 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 1: you see a case for holding gold here at least 447 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: in the long or term. How does what you do 448 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 1: it guild in it guilded enable people to own gold. Yeah, 449 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 1: that's a great question. I think the key here is 450 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 1: that gold has as an asset class been difficult to homee. 451 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 1: So what we've really focused on is how can we 452 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:22,119 Speaker 1: make physical gold ownership functional? And so that really means 453 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 1: making it digital, mobile, and usable. So let's leverage twenty 454 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 1: one century technology, a smartphone, a mobile mobile device, a 455 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 1: mobile app, and blockchain to be able to provide that 456 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:38,880 Speaker 1: physical ownership direct to you in a nice easy way 457 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,920 Speaker 1: where you can be the direct owner of the property 458 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 1: rather than a fractional banking system where it's an IOU 459 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 1: where you can leverage it to be able to do 460 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,480 Speaker 1: things like not only buy and sell, but even in 461 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 1: certain countries, were already able to send or gift and 462 00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 1: and then be able to do other things for example 463 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 1: or ultimately a return or be able to borrow lend 464 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:04,879 Speaker 1: against it as well. Sure, if how much is this? 465 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,440 Speaker 1: If you can't beat them, join them? Basically people saying 466 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 1: that bitcoin was taking over for gold because people didn't 467 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 1: want to have to store the thing and they wanted 468 00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 1: to have some sort of store of value, how much 469 00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 1: is it saying Okay, we get that, we get that 470 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,640 Speaker 1: all right, But well, we'll give you the benefits of that, 471 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 1: but we'll give you the absolute reality of gold, which is, 472 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 1: you know, last of the test of time. Yeah. I 473 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,159 Speaker 1: think it's a great question. Um. Ease of use is 474 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,600 Speaker 1: always paramount, and I believe that one of the things 475 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 1: that's happened with digital assets is they have made it 476 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 1: easier for people to access. Physical gold has been hard 477 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 1: for people to access, and so I think we're making 478 00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,719 Speaker 1: it easier by making a digital mobile and usable. And 479 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 1: most importantly, perhaps is that that marketplace is huge. It's 480 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,920 Speaker 1: a twelve trillion dollar marketplace, probably the single most widely 481 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: held asset in the world. Billions of people own it, 482 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: most every major central bank does. So it's really time 483 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 1: to bring it into the twenty first century rather than 484 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 1: just being what a lot of people have claimed, which 485 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 1: is that it's a it's a very expensive paperweight. But 486 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:11,440 Speaker 1: by baking it making it twenty century, we can make 487 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 1: it usable for everyone and very functional. Yeah. You know, Astrov, 488 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,919 Speaker 1: a lot of bitcoin bowls call bitcoin digital gold, but 489 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: you are actually literally doing digital gold over at Guilden. 490 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 1: That is Ashraf Risbee. He is the CEO and founder 491 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 1: of Gilded talking to us about gold, which, yes, Lisa, 492 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 1: she's smiling of a really expensive paperweight. We now don't 493 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: have paper to even wait down because everything is digital anyway. 494 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 1: I mean, it just sort of talks about the other era. Yeah, 495 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 1: who even needs pens anymore. It's a brave new world 496 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,880 Speaker 1: where people don't need gold to hedge against anything. Gold, though, 497 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,719 Speaker 1: is getting a little bit of a bit to day 498 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,359 Speaker 1: on a day when the markets are down. Thanks for 499 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,919 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and 500 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 1: listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform 501 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:02,359 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller, I'm on Twitter at Matt 502 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,960 Speaker 1: Miller three, and I'm fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at 503 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us 504 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.