WEBVTT - Credit Suisse, Inflation, And Tesla (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

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<v Speaker 1>you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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<v Speaker 1>with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. You know what I

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<v Speaker 1>like to do on the Bloomberg terminals, Look at the

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<v Speaker 1>league tables, Matt, You know for the investment banks, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know who's doing what in equity underwriting? Don't you

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<v Speaker 1>get bored of that? It's always Goldman Stacks right at

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<v Speaker 1>the top. What's not this time, big guy? It is

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<v Speaker 1>China has an investment called citic C I T I

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<v Speaker 1>C and they're kind of number one interns of equity issuance.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to figure out what's going on there? So

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<v Speaker 1>what are we doing? When we want to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street, we go to Alison Williams. She's been covering

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<v Speaker 1>the investment banks on Wall Street for decades, first at

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<v Speaker 1>Morgan Stanley Investment Management and for the last i'm gonna

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<v Speaker 1>say thirteen years. She was one of our absolute first hires.

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<v Speaker 1>At Bloomberg Intelligence. Umus Williams, Senior Global Banks and Asset

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<v Speaker 1>Manager Analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. Allison talk to us about

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<v Speaker 1>CITIC securities. Who are they? What are they? And boy

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<v Speaker 1>they got they're pretty big here there. They beat up

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<v Speaker 1>Goldman Sacks, so they are. But there's two key things

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<v Speaker 1>going on, which is UM. You know, there's no denying

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<v Speaker 1>the slump here in the US in terms of I

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<v Speaker 1>P O S. And really Asia is the big driver

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<v Speaker 1>of of issuance that we're seeing here to date. CIDEC

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<v Speaker 1>is a key player in their local market, and so

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<v Speaker 1>UM to some extent. If we take a step back

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<v Speaker 1>and we look at equity issuance excluding Asia, you would

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<v Speaker 1>still see Golden Sacks at the top of that table.

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<v Speaker 1>So Goldman Sacks and Morgan Stanley City JP, Morgan Bank

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<v Speaker 1>America if we sort of exclude the Asia market, but

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<v Speaker 1>definitely in Asia, some of the local players doing very

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<v Speaker 1>well there. And given that that is where we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>UM the majority of the action this year, it's not

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<v Speaker 1>surprising that that those local players are sort of topping

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<v Speaker 1>the global table. So Alison, with the SMP down this year,

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<v Speaker 1>no surprise that there having been a lot of new

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<v Speaker 1>equity issuance or equity issuance issues in general. Here is

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<v Speaker 1>there a sense that there's a huge backlog out there

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<v Speaker 1>and when the market, you know, rallies off the bottom,

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<v Speaker 1>that will see more activity. How does that typically work?

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<v Speaker 1>That's been the hope, and so I think for most

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<v Speaker 1>of this year what we've heard from the global investment

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<v Speaker 1>banks is that pipelines are stalled, and so we hadn't

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily seen pulling of deals. We've just seen sort of

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<v Speaker 1>the backlogs sitting there, and so it really has um

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<v Speaker 1>come down to lack of execution. UM. But I think

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<v Speaker 1>that some of the banks may have been sort of

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<v Speaker 1>holding out September and October sort of the key months

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<v Speaker 1>or you know, the key busiest and says, we get

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<v Speaker 1>into this second half UM, and with the tougher markets

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<v Speaker 1>in September, we wonder if we're going to be hearing

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<v Speaker 1>in a couple of weeks some of the decaying of

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<v Speaker 1>those pipelines from the investment banks. Alison, how important are

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<v Speaker 1>the league tables? I never worked at a bank. I

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<v Speaker 1>did cold calls at a bucket shop for a while,

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<v Speaker 1>and then I interned at a broker dealer. But in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of um, the IB guys how much and and

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<v Speaker 1>gals how much do they care about the league tables

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<v Speaker 1>and their their ranks? Well, two things they do care

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<v Speaker 1>very much. Um, they care about the bragging rights. Of course,

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<v Speaker 1>you know we do want to be the bankers, want

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<v Speaker 1>to be the ones getting deals. Um, they do care

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<v Speaker 1>about having the bragging rights. But as Paul will tell

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<v Speaker 1>you as someone who helped to drive the numbers behind

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<v Speaker 1>those league tables, is that you know, the league tables

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<v Speaker 1>can show any given bank as number one depending on

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<v Speaker 1>how you formulate the bad league table. Yes, you massage

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<v Speaker 1>those and the mom in the number of deals priced

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<v Speaker 1>between Tuesday and Thursday. You know that's how we did.

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<v Speaker 1>But a bank will a bank or us will you

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<v Speaker 1>walk in? Will you you walk into your boss's office

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<v Speaker 1>with the league table and say like, give me more money?

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<v Speaker 1>You know I moved us to number two from number

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<v Speaker 1>five or no. I usually just would just say pay

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<v Speaker 1>me more money. I'm walking across the street. But those

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<v Speaker 1>days are long gone. Allison remembers those days. Alison, let's

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<v Speaker 1>switch gears here. My good friends at Credit Swiss. Boy,

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<v Speaker 1>we were awesome back in the day, but they cannot

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<v Speaker 1>get out of their way. Here is there any future

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<v Speaker 1>for the Credit Swiss investment bank maybe outside of Switzerland?

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<v Speaker 1>What is it? What is it? We saw the cost

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<v Speaker 1>to ensure Credit Swiss debt rise fifteen percent, like over

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<v Speaker 1>the weekend, we saw the shares um you know, collapse

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<v Speaker 1>this morning. I don't know why, Alison, what, What's what's

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<v Speaker 1>driving that? What's driving that is that we have number one,

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<v Speaker 1>a tough global market, right and then on top of that,

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<v Speaker 1>we have a bank that has said they're considering their options.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of uncertainty around what those options might be. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>If one of the options includes a capital raise, it's

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<v Speaker 1>always going to be tough UM for a stock to

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<v Speaker 1>study when the amount of potential issuance and delusion is unknown.

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<v Speaker 1>And so I think in general, it's always a tough

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<v Speaker 1>time when a bank says the strategy is coming and

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<v Speaker 1>then there's several weeks ahead of getting the actual effects

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<v Speaker 1>because UM investors getting patient. Tough markets increase the impatience,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's really nothing that management can say or do

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<v Speaker 1>in the meantime to sort of study that. And so

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<v Speaker 1>we've we've been seeing that with Credits Weasis management coming

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<v Speaker 1>out a few times and saying you know, we're working

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<v Speaker 1>on it. We're working on it. But um, as we

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<v Speaker 1>know from prior periods of market stress, UM, it's just

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<v Speaker 1>tough to instill confidence when the markets are behaving, especially um,

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<v Speaker 1>when the global broader market is tough. Alison, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>is there any scenario where they merge with the ubs

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<v Speaker 1>or the Swiss government just not allow that. I still

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<v Speaker 1>think that's doubtful. UM. I think that probably the more

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<v Speaker 1>likely UM thing that happens is they do have to

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<v Speaker 1>capital intensive businesses, securitized products, trading, credit trading. These are

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<v Speaker 1>sort of less tied to their core wealth business as

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<v Speaker 1>we know, UM, A lot of investors with both UBS

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<v Speaker 1>and credit sweets, the focus is always they want to

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<v Speaker 1>own it for the wealth business. They don't like the

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<v Speaker 1>investment bank. I think that credit suites can, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>make a case that they do need like M and

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<v Speaker 1>A and things like that, but it's less likely to

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<v Speaker 1>make a case on those other types of businesses. All right, Allison,

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<v Speaker 1>good stuff as always. Alison Williams, Senior Global Banks Analysts,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the all time great analysts Boomberg Intelligence, and

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<v Speaker 1>there are many of them at the this boom looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the yields. Boy, the two years down twenty one

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<v Speaker 1>basis points four point zero seven percent, So back on

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<v Speaker 1>that four percent watch here after a big, big move

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<v Speaker 1>up in rates, the question is what does the fellow

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<v Speaker 1>reserve do from here? PREA miserable managing director and global

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<v Speaker 1>head of rate strategy at TV Securities joins us P.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks so much for taking the time here. Really appreciate it. Alright.

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<v Speaker 1>The Fed has been very clear with its messaging it's

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<v Speaker 1>fighting inflation. Um, some folks are saying they need to

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<v Speaker 1>pause here, they need to take a break. What do

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<v Speaker 1>you think is gonna happen? Thanks for having me on,

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, I think it's much too early for

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<v Speaker 1>them to be taking a pause. Um. In fact, we've

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<v Speaker 1>heard from a bunch of FED officials in the last

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<v Speaker 1>week reinforcing the message from Jackson Hole or the September

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<v Speaker 1>FED meeting that they're on a mission. They need inflation

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<v Speaker 1>much lower. Inflation is sticky, inflation is broad based. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just too high. So I think they're still going we're

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<v Speaker 1>looking for another seventy five in November, fifty in December,

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<v Speaker 1>and then continued the hikes next year. I think they

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<v Speaker 1>really want to see inflation monthly prints getting to point

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<v Speaker 1>two point three in that range before they can stop hiking. So,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we think there's still a long way to go.

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<v Speaker 1>I know, financial conditions have tightened, but inflation is too

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<v Speaker 1>high and the economy is slowing. But they wanted us

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<v Speaker 1>they will be paying ahead, and so I think we

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<v Speaker 1>all should be uh, you know, expecting that pain to

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<v Speaker 1>show up. I think the question is just how much

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<v Speaker 1>pain are they willing to tolerate? And this is just starting. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I was going to ask the same the exact that

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<v Speaker 1>exact question, how much pain are they willing to tolerate,

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<v Speaker 1>especially considering it's going to hit lower income uh families

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<v Speaker 1>and consumers hardest. Um, And we're seeing in the UK

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<v Speaker 1>how bad that plays out. You know, when it's impossible

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<v Speaker 1>for two million people to remortgage or you know, too expensive,

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<v Speaker 1>they're gonna have to be fire sales on homes there.

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<v Speaker 1>And then when you start to see you know, insurance

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<v Speaker 1>markets um start to need a bank ail out. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>how close can we get to that before they back off? Sure?

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<v Speaker 1>So I would say inflation is also highly regressive, meaning

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<v Speaker 1>it hits the lower income parts of the population much harder,

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<v Speaker 1>and so if the FED is just focused on that,

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<v Speaker 1>and they will see the labor market is still strong,

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<v Speaker 1>and they'll see inflation being still too high. So that

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<v Speaker 1>still remains. I think inflation remains public and me number

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<v Speaker 1>one in terms of the insurance market that you're talking about,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think financial stress. We're we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>have to deal with more financial stress. You look at this,

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<v Speaker 1>this is of our shock. We're living through these massive

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<v Speaker 1>moves and rates. I mean, treasury is moving twenty five

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<v Speaker 1>base points a day, the stock market all over the place.

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<v Speaker 1>I think credit spreads um in terms of bail. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think the insurance industry in the U S

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<v Speaker 1>or the pension industry is as leveled to that trade

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<v Speaker 1>um as we saw in the UK. And we have

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<v Speaker 1>not had that level of moves in the tenure. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm shocked with the twenty basis point move, but the

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<v Speaker 1>tenure is still below four percent. We haven't had the

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<v Speaker 1>hundred two hundred basis point more higher. So I don't

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<v Speaker 1>see that particular industry in the US being as vulnerable

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<v Speaker 1>as it is in the UK. But in general, I

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<v Speaker 1>think when you get moves like this and growth is

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<v Speaker 1>slowing without a fit put insight. I think it just

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<v Speaker 1>tells you liquidity is paramount to prevent sort of forced

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<v Speaker 1>being forced to sell at a time when you know

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<v Speaker 1>liquidity is not great. So I think, is there enough

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<v Speaker 1>liquidity to soak up the bonds that are going to

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<v Speaker 1>get unleashed with quantitative tightening? So that's fair. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's been well advertised that the FED is selling or

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<v Speaker 1>effectively letting nine between treasuries and mortgages run off a month. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I I struggled to find the marginal buyer,

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<v Speaker 1>and which is why treasuries have been selling off. But

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<v Speaker 1>at some point longer treasuries are going to be the

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<v Speaker 1>risk asset hedge because we should be pricing in a recession.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the recession is pretty much baked on the

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<v Speaker 1>cake for next year in the US, and I don't

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<v Speaker 1>buy the shallow short recession argument. This could be much

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<v Speaker 1>longer lasting because the FED is going to be reluctant

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<v Speaker 1>to start to ease. They're so worried about the nineties

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<v Speaker 1>seventies that I think they're going to be late on

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<v Speaker 1>the way to easing policy. So you know, if we're

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<v Speaker 1>in a recession, where should the tenure b I would

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<v Speaker 1>say the FED should when maybe it's twenty four or

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five that they start to cut rates, and they'll

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<v Speaker 1>cut I think at that point too well below neutral.

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<v Speaker 1>So the tenure is attractive as a risk hedge, and

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<v Speaker 1>so I think that's where the bias will show up

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<v Speaker 1>against risk castles. Pretty we had some I s M

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<v Speaker 1>manufacturing data today came out weaker than expected and even

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<v Speaker 1>new particularly on the new order side, uh forty seven

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<v Speaker 1>point one showing contraction there. What do you make of that? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so we have been actually looking for the weakening to

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<v Speaker 1>show up because for a couple of reasons. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>these were numbers were very high given that this was

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<v Speaker 1>a good driven recovery post COVID recovery and goods demand

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<v Speaker 1>we had seen starting to come off sharply. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think that slowing is expected. It's not a huge employe

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<v Speaker 1>mean indicator. So it's what I'm more interested in is

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<v Speaker 1>I s M services. Have we seen the consumer? And

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's going to be the early sign if

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<v Speaker 1>the consumer is reducing spending because real wage growth for

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<v Speaker 1>the U S consumers negative, meaning inflation is higher than

0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:22.760
<v Speaker 1>the average. Early earnings. I think if I s M services,

0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:26.640
<v Speaker 1>which is a huge employment uh early read, if that

0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:28.559
<v Speaker 1>starts to slow down, I think that tells you that

0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:31.160
<v Speaker 1>the economy slowing. I don't think that stops the FED,

0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:34.280
<v Speaker 1>though it gives them probably some caution about the pace

0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:37.280
<v Speaker 1>of hikes, but that endpoint, it's all about inflation in

0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:40.880
<v Speaker 1>the near term. Okay, really appreciate getting your time. Prove

0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:44.160
<v Speaker 1>you know you're busy. Premiser a managing director in Global

0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:47.720
<v Speaker 1>head of Rates Strategy at t D Securities here. So

0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:51.959
<v Speaker 1>some more movement up from the FED. Pre as talking

0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:57.439
<v Speaker 1>about a recession, um, but perhaps you know, not be long,

0:12:57.559 --> 0:12:59.720
<v Speaker 1>but maybe a little bit of a shallow recession there.

0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.240
<v Speaker 1>So uh some more. We have to pay attention to

0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:05.200
<v Speaker 1>this feed, of course, as it continues its fight against inflation.

0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:09.840
<v Speaker 1>I want to get to our next guest right away.

0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:13.000
<v Speaker 1>Jonathan Webb. He's the CEO and founder of app Harvest.

0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:17.120
<v Speaker 1>They are building some of America's largest greenhouses, combining conventional

0:13:17.120 --> 0:13:20.840
<v Speaker 1>agricultural techniques with today's technology to grow non gmo chemical

0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:23.560
<v Speaker 1>free produce. Jonathan, thanks so much for taking the time

0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:25.840
<v Speaker 1>to join us here. Talk to us about what you

0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:29.040
<v Speaker 1>guys are doing at APP Harvest. I know you're in

0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:33.000
<v Speaker 1>Kentucky and that Appalachia area there. Talk to us about

0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:36.160
<v Speaker 1>what you guys are up to. Yeah, So we're building

0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:40.320
<v Speaker 1>some of the world's largest controlled environment agriculture facilities to

0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:43.400
<v Speaker 1>grow fruits and vegetables with less land and less water.

0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:46.200
<v Speaker 1>And if you look at the US today, we imported

0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:49.480
<v Speaker 1>about two thirds of our fruits and vegetables UH into

0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:51.559
<v Speaker 1>the US and then the rest that we do grow

0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:55.000
<v Speaker 1>here are mainly grown in grouch drought stricken areas of

0:13:55.200 --> 0:14:00.920
<v Speaker 1>the Southwest in California. So UH, climate disruption continues to

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.880
<v Speaker 1>impact farmers not just in the US but around the world.

0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:07.319
<v Speaker 1>So we we have to use technology, build infrastructure and

0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:10.320
<v Speaker 1>UH and be able to grow food year round with

0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:12.840
<v Speaker 1>with less water and less land. And that's ultimately what

0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:16.439
<v Speaker 1>we're doing doing here at a Harvest in Kentucky. So,

0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:19.960
<v Speaker 1>I know, your first greenhouse in Morehead, Kentucky, it's going

0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:23.280
<v Speaker 1>to span sixty acres and use less water. How do

0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:26.320
<v Speaker 1>you do that? Yes, So we by the end of

0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:30.360
<v Speaker 1>the year, we'll have four facilities operating um of about

0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:34.640
<v Speaker 1>eight million square feet in total. So just scale size

0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:40.680
<v Speaker 1>and we'll be across strawberries, salad, greens and tomatoes. But

0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:44.840
<v Speaker 1>ultimately we're we're using a host of different technologies that

0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:48.600
<v Speaker 1>we combine into one system. Um and you mentioned if

0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.880
<v Speaker 1>we we use about nine less water than open field

0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:56.360
<v Speaker 1>agriculture and can get to about thirty times yield per acre,

0:14:56.760 --> 0:14:58.520
<v Speaker 1>and we can do that no matter what the climate

0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 1>is outside. So our general thesis is, you know, this

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:05.600
<v Speaker 1>is the third wave of sustainable infrastructure. Twenty years ago

0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:09.760
<v Speaker 1>was renewable energy, ten years ago it was Tesla with

0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:12.960
<v Speaker 1>electric vehicles, and then right now it's controlled environment agriculture.

0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:15.160
<v Speaker 1>We're going to have to bring most of our fruit

0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:18.480
<v Speaker 1>and vegetable production around the world into a controlled environment.

0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:22.560
<v Speaker 1>Uh and and and ultimately were one solution, but there

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:24.600
<v Speaker 1>are a lot of different solutions that are coming out

0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:28.400
<v Speaker 1>of the market. When I grew up in Ohio, so, um,

0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:30.960
<v Speaker 1>when I think of Kentucky and when I think of

0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:35.280
<v Speaker 1>controlled environment farming, I think of the weed they grew

0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:39.560
<v Speaker 1>there was very good. Reportedly, are you just doing um

0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:44.720
<v Speaker 1>produced Are you also in the cannabis business now we're

0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:47.280
<v Speaker 1>we're focused on fruits and vegetables. I mean the the

0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:51.480
<v Speaker 1>convergence of technologies that can be somewhat similar the LED

0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:56.480
<v Speaker 1>lighting Uh, that that's benefitted any any grower is something

0:15:56.480 --> 0:16:00.160
<v Speaker 1>that we're benefiting from. But ultimately, we're building facility US

0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:03.680
<v Speaker 1>to supply fruits and vegetables to the largest grocers, so

0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:09.440
<v Speaker 1>our our customers or Costco, Walmart, Cromer, Publics, um and

0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:11.880
<v Speaker 1>and a whole host of variety of fast food chains

0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:15.160
<v Speaker 1>and and just our focus as fruits and vegetables. But

0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:18.080
<v Speaker 1>you'll see those technologies kind of go back and forth

0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:20.520
<v Speaker 1>depending on on what the industry is. But we're we're

0:16:20.560 --> 0:16:23.280
<v Speaker 1>focused on bringing fruit and vegetable production back to the

0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:26.520
<v Speaker 1>US and doing it in control environment. Why do you think, Jonathan,

0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:31.680
<v Speaker 1>the stock price has suffered so severely? I mean a

0:16:31.800 --> 0:16:36.240
<v Speaker 1>year ago, um, app Harvest was trading for over six

0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:38.080
<v Speaker 1>and now we're looking at a dollar a D nine.

0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:41.960
<v Speaker 1>What what are investors misunderstanding? Yeah? In a year and

0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:46.320
<v Speaker 1>a half, we went to forty five bucks share forty

0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:49.960
<v Speaker 1>down to two bucks. Um Yeah, I mean, look, we're

0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:54.320
<v Speaker 1>we're investing and and and the long long term here

0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:58.000
<v Speaker 1>at app Harvest. We're building facilities that will operate twenty

0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:02.680
<v Speaker 1>thirty years. Uh E. Those four facilities are not operational yet,

0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:05.600
<v Speaker 1>they'll be operational later this year and you know, we

0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:08.359
<v Speaker 1>we had a couple of stumbles last year. It was

0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:11.879
<v Speaker 1>our first first crop, first season producing and selling to

0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:16.119
<v Speaker 1>a grocure and we we went public via SPACK. I mean, ultimately,

0:17:16.240 --> 0:17:18.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, you look at why are we down? Well,

0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:23.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, SPACs are down, Tech growth futures down, uh

0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:25.960
<v Speaker 1>E s G down. I mean, everything is down. We're

0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:28.760
<v Speaker 1>just on top of that. We're a little worse than others.

0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:31.919
<v Speaker 1>And I've talked to the founders of CEOs of a

0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:34.600
<v Speaker 1>lot of good companies that went public last year, and

0:17:34.680 --> 0:17:37.080
<v Speaker 1>we're focused on building a good business that will be

0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:39.480
<v Speaker 1>here the next twenty years. And you know, we have

0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:42.280
<v Speaker 1>to weather the storm the next two years with incredibly

0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:44.880
<v Speaker 1>terrible public mark. But do you have all the capital

0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:48.880
<v Speaker 1>you need? I'm you know you're not generating cash right,

0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:51.800
<v Speaker 1>so you need to invest in this business. As you said,

0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:53.520
<v Speaker 1>do you have everything or do you need to go

0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:57.440
<v Speaker 1>to the market again, Well, we're weighing our options and

0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:00.960
<v Speaker 1>and you know we're building facilities, so utimately, how we

0:18:01.119 --> 0:18:04.720
<v Speaker 1>finance those facilities could be private and you know, doing

0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:07.640
<v Speaker 1>a sale lease back type model for each facility. So

0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.399
<v Speaker 1>you know, every growth company is going to need capital.

0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:12.160
<v Speaker 1>It's for us how do we get the capital. We've

0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:16.040
<v Speaker 1>been able to secure attractive debt financing from JP Morgan

0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:18.600
<v Speaker 1>U s D, a robo bank, So you know, we're

0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:20.879
<v Speaker 1>constantly trying to field how to get capital at the

0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:24.479
<v Speaker 1>most attractive price. And obviously if the stock was at

0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:27.360
<v Speaker 1>fifty bucks, that would be ideal, but there's there's other

0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:30.280
<v Speaker 1>ways for us to access capital, and we'll do whatever

0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:33.600
<v Speaker 1>is prudent to do that to funder growth. Jonathan, I

0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:35.560
<v Speaker 1>spent a lot of time in central California, and there

0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:38.639
<v Speaker 1>are agricultural farms, you know, spending as far as I

0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:41.080
<v Speaker 1>can see, But also as far as I can see

0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:44.160
<v Speaker 1>are the irrigation systems that have the sprinklers just going

0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:47.760
<v Speaker 1>on forever into the horizon. You just got to think

0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:50.960
<v Speaker 1>that that the water issue is probably the biggest issue

0:18:51.000 --> 0:18:54.920
<v Speaker 1>facing agriculture in this country. What do you guys do

0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:58.640
<v Speaker 1>that's that's different, that tries to address that. I mean,

0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:01.600
<v Speaker 1>this will be the collapse and lifetime. I'm I'm thirty

0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:03.920
<v Speaker 1>seven years old. I grew up in Kentucky. I saw

0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:06.440
<v Speaker 1>the collapse of the coal industry when people said there

0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:09.400
<v Speaker 1>was no way you talk to any coal minor. Fifteen

0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:12.680
<v Speaker 1>years ago, Peabody Energy. Anyone couldn't get their head out

0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:15.679
<v Speaker 1>of the sand. Uh, and we saw a collapse of

0:19:15.680 --> 0:19:18.000
<v Speaker 1>an industry that people thought there was no way it

0:19:18.000 --> 0:19:21.879
<v Speaker 1>would collapse. We will not be farming leafy greens in California.

0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:24.200
<v Speaker 1>We're not going to be farming the way we're farming

0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:26.320
<v Speaker 1>in the southwest of the US. I mean, it is

0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:30.320
<v Speaker 1>an existential threat to those cities. We do not have

0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:33.919
<v Speaker 1>enough water. Eight of the water that's being consumed in

0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:38.240
<v Speaker 1>the West is consumed by agriculture. So you can talk

0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:41.680
<v Speaker 1>about like Kim Kardashian, you know, reducing her shower time.

0:19:41.720 --> 0:19:43.760
<v Speaker 1>I know it's made a lot of headlines in California

0:19:44.000 --> 0:19:47.080
<v Speaker 1>where cities have tried to restrict shower time or bout

0:19:47.160 --> 0:19:52.280
<v Speaker 1>that it's irrelevant. That's agriculture. So we're not going to

0:19:52.359 --> 0:19:56.080
<v Speaker 1>be growing leafy greens in Salinas, Cally Valley, California in

0:19:56.119 --> 0:20:00.639
<v Speaker 1>my lifetime. We we solve it by using facility like ours.

0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:04.280
<v Speaker 1>We're using less water. So you do the back back

0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:06.760
<v Speaker 1>to the envelope math. It's pretty simple. I mean, we're

0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:10.120
<v Speaker 1>close with Tom Vilsack. We knew the last at Secretary Purdue.

0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:12.280
<v Speaker 1>You know, there's a real lack of leadership in d

0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:14.280
<v Speaker 1>C on either side of the aisle. I mean, no

0:20:14.320 --> 0:20:17.960
<v Speaker 1>one wants to touch this topic. Which politician would want

0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:20.880
<v Speaker 1>to touch this topic and try to get reelected anywhere?

0:20:21.240 --> 0:20:24.080
<v Speaker 1>So it's a hot button issue. We're not talking about it.

0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:28.920
<v Speaker 1>The water issues of Colorado, River Lake, pal Lake Mead,

0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:31.520
<v Speaker 1>all through California. It's only going to get worse here

0:20:31.560 --> 0:20:34.240
<v Speaker 1>over a year. Uh. And maybe you'll have to get

0:20:34.280 --> 0:20:36.400
<v Speaker 1>really bad before it gets better. But the good thing

0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:39.760
<v Speaker 1>is there's technology and we can use that technology and

0:20:39.800 --> 0:20:43.280
<v Speaker 1>grow with less water. And the private markets can help

0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:45.760
<v Speaker 1>solve this. But ultimately we're going to need d C

0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:48.880
<v Speaker 1>to incentivize the private markets to put capital to work

0:20:48.920 --> 0:20:51.920
<v Speaker 1>across farms in the US. All right, good stuff, Jonathan

0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:54.560
<v Speaker 1>Johnson Webb. We appreciate you taking the time here, CEO

0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:59.240
<v Speaker 1>and founder of app Harvests symbol a p p H

0:20:59.320 --> 0:21:02.240
<v Speaker 1>and put that into a Bloomberg terminal. Uh. And you know,

0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:10.120
<v Speaker 1>talking about sustainable farming going farther into the future. When

0:21:10.160 --> 0:21:11.680
<v Speaker 1>we move over to M and A into the power

0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:14.560
<v Speaker 1>generation space, we had a German power generator r w

0:21:14.800 --> 0:21:18.000
<v Speaker 1>E announced today a six point eight billion dollar purchase

0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:20.960
<v Speaker 1>of Khan Edison assets. UM, I want to get to

0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:23.000
<v Speaker 1>the you know what's going on. We don't talk about

0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:26.240
<v Speaker 1>the green unit of Yeah, the green unit of CONDAD.

0:21:26.320 --> 0:21:30.000
<v Speaker 1>Let's bring in Patricia Alvarez, Equity research Channels for Bloomberg Intelligency,

0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:33.760
<v Speaker 1>joins us from the our Bloomberg's London studio. Patricia talk

0:21:33.840 --> 0:21:36.280
<v Speaker 1>to us about r w E. Who are they, what

0:21:36.359 --> 0:21:39.520
<v Speaker 1>are they? And talk to us about this deal. Sure so,

0:21:39.800 --> 0:21:43.040
<v Speaker 1>um are do we E is one of Europe's largest

0:21:43.160 --> 0:21:46.760
<v Speaker 1>coal fire generators of power, but as well they're also

0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:51.640
<v Speaker 1>one of the fastest growing renewable asset operators in the region,

0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:55.760
<v Speaker 1>with exposure to previous exposure to the US and the

0:21:55.880 --> 0:21:59.160
<v Speaker 1>UK UM and with their headquarters and sort of their

0:21:59.240 --> 0:22:03.680
<v Speaker 1>their core market in Germany UM. In terms of the acquisition,

0:22:03.920 --> 0:22:07.480
<v Speaker 1>we see this as part of their their longer term

0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:11.320
<v Speaker 1>strategy UH into pivoting into the US UM And while

0:22:11.400 --> 0:22:13.840
<v Speaker 1>it may surprise some investors to see r w E

0:22:13.960 --> 0:22:17.879
<v Speaker 1>sort of spending money outside of of Europe amid the

0:22:17.960 --> 0:22:21.200
<v Speaker 1>current energy crunch we're having here, we see this as

0:22:21.640 --> 0:22:26.040
<v Speaker 1>as a structurally sound strategic move for them, especially now

0:22:26.080 --> 0:22:29.359
<v Speaker 1>with the policy support coming in with the Inflation Reduction Act.

0:22:29.480 --> 0:22:33.840
<v Speaker 1>And considering that Conddition's assets are mostly solar assets, which

0:22:33.840 --> 0:22:35.760
<v Speaker 1>are the ones that are poised to benefit the most

0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:39.320
<v Speaker 1>from this policy shift. We see this as um as

0:22:39.400 --> 0:22:42.000
<v Speaker 1>as a sound sort of a strategic move for for

0:22:42.040 --> 0:22:45.320
<v Speaker 1>our W. So Patricio, um, you know, I've lived in

0:22:45.320 --> 0:22:47.920
<v Speaker 1>Germany the past five or six years. They were constantly

0:22:47.960 --> 0:22:51.200
<v Speaker 1>talking about reducing their reliance on coal. That is, until

0:22:51.880 --> 0:22:56.640
<v Speaker 1>um the Russians invaded Ukraine. Does that mean and now

0:22:56.680 --> 0:22:58.520
<v Speaker 1>of course they've had to go to coal because they

0:22:58.520 --> 0:23:01.399
<v Speaker 1>don't have as much gas they had previously. Does that

0:23:01.480 --> 0:23:05.040
<v Speaker 1>mean that our w is flush with cash as those

0:23:05.560 --> 0:23:08.800
<v Speaker 1>plants are just generating so much electricity and I guess

0:23:08.800 --> 0:23:12.040
<v Speaker 1>then revenue that they can use it in acquisitions like this,

0:23:13.280 --> 0:23:16.240
<v Speaker 1>So that that's an interesting point. Um so are do

0:23:16.320 --> 0:23:21.880
<v Speaker 1>we has has done well compared to other UM German utilities.

0:23:22.160 --> 0:23:25.160
<v Speaker 1>It's no surprise that other utilities that are more reliant

0:23:25.160 --> 0:23:29.440
<v Speaker 1>on both gas supply and also gas fire generations, such

0:23:29.480 --> 0:23:32.600
<v Speaker 1>as Uniper, which is now the poster child of the

0:23:32.720 --> 0:23:35.400
<v Speaker 1>energy crisis, being bailed out by by the German government

0:23:36.000 --> 0:23:40.960
<v Speaker 1>UM bought out. Yes, um UM of of the equity

0:23:41.040 --> 0:23:43.879
<v Speaker 1>is now going to be nationalized. But our do WE

0:23:44.040 --> 0:23:46.520
<v Speaker 1>does not have this type of exposure. Are do We

0:23:46.680 --> 0:23:49.760
<v Speaker 1>does have a significant fleet of gas fired power, but

0:23:49.800 --> 0:23:52.040
<v Speaker 1>at the same time it has the largest lg nite

0:23:52.080 --> 0:23:56.199
<v Speaker 1>fired power generation fleet. So in that sense they are

0:23:56.240 --> 0:23:59.600
<v Speaker 1>both covered from from the suppliers side, from Russia being

0:23:59.680 --> 0:24:02.359
<v Speaker 1>a thing supplies, but at the same time they have

0:24:02.480 --> 0:24:05.760
<v Speaker 1>been benefiting from from higher prices on their dispatchable power,

0:24:05.800 --> 0:24:09.480
<v Speaker 1>which is mainly lignite, which is also important important to

0:24:09.520 --> 0:24:14.280
<v Speaker 1>note that is mostly mined within Germany UM, which is

0:24:14.600 --> 0:24:17.240
<v Speaker 1>which is interesting to see because most of the hard

0:24:17.280 --> 0:24:20.520
<v Speaker 1>core coming into Europe comes from Russia UM, so, so

0:24:20.560 --> 0:24:22.399
<v Speaker 1>in that way are WE so it's sort of in

0:24:22.400 --> 0:24:25.480
<v Speaker 1>the sweet spot where it has been mining that lignite

0:24:25.480 --> 0:24:27.080
<v Speaker 1>as well, or they have to buy it from minors

0:24:27.119 --> 0:24:30.520
<v Speaker 1>before they burn in their plants. I most of their

0:24:30.560 --> 0:24:33.680
<v Speaker 1>of their lignite is is procured from their own minds

0:24:33.880 --> 0:24:38.040
<v Speaker 1>and uh or from domestic from domestic producers, so they

0:24:38.080 --> 0:24:41.160
<v Speaker 1>are not exposed to to any supply disruptions, which is interesting,

0:24:41.520 --> 0:24:44.800
<v Speaker 1>and they they're sort of an outsized and an outlier

0:24:44.840 --> 0:24:47.720
<v Speaker 1>i'd say within the energy crisis because they are both

0:24:47.760 --> 0:24:50.880
<v Speaker 1>fetching capturing these higher power prices. But at the same

0:24:50.920 --> 0:24:55.240
<v Speaker 1>time they're not having the same struggles as as other utilities. Alright, Patricia,

0:24:55.359 --> 0:24:57.359
<v Speaker 1>good stuff. We appreciate you hopping on the line with this,

0:24:57.440 --> 0:25:00.560
<v Speaker 1>Patricia Abas these equity research channels covering all that power

0:25:00.640 --> 0:25:06.400
<v Speaker 1>generation utility stuff across Europe for Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh, we've

0:25:06.440 --> 0:25:08.520
<v Speaker 1>got Kick Knolan who covers it here in the US.

0:25:08.560 --> 0:25:12.080
<v Speaker 1>We've got Patricio uh in all of Europe as well,

0:25:12.119 --> 0:25:14.080
<v Speaker 1>So we've got it covered for you from a Bloomberg

0:25:14.160 --> 0:25:17.359
<v Speaker 1>Intelligence perspective. We appreciate getting his thoughts there. So a

0:25:17.440 --> 0:25:20.159
<v Speaker 1>green deal, Yeah, I'm wondering why Conde. I wonder why

0:25:20.200 --> 0:25:23.400
<v Speaker 1>Conde isn't selling I mean, who sells green assets these days?

0:25:23.440 --> 0:25:26.560
<v Speaker 1>Well maybe it's um just for money. Yeah, you know,

0:25:27.200 --> 0:25:29.320
<v Speaker 1>you might want to take a high price when you

0:25:29.320 --> 0:25:32.200
<v Speaker 1>can get it. And said it's almost seven billion dollar deal.

0:25:32.200 --> 0:25:35.080
<v Speaker 1>I think it's the biggest green deal that I've seen.

0:25:35.200 --> 0:25:41.600
<v Speaker 1>Good stuff. Looking at Credit Swiss the a d r

0:25:41.680 --> 0:25:44.600
<v Speaker 1>s four dollars to share kids, Oh my goodness. Up

0:25:44.640 --> 0:25:46.480
<v Speaker 1>a couple of percent today, but down fifty eight percent

0:25:46.520 --> 0:25:48.439
<v Speaker 1>year today. People are really looking at Credit Swiss. Here

0:25:48.520 --> 0:25:52.919
<v Speaker 1>is you know, real concern for global Wall Street welcome

0:25:52.960 --> 0:25:55.240
<v Speaker 1>Shiney Basket, Wall Street reporter for Bloomberg News and our

0:25:55.240 --> 0:25:58.520
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Paul Daviess, Bloomberg Opinion columnists. I

0:25:58.560 --> 0:26:02.120
<v Speaker 1>believe in our London in studio will find out soon enough.

0:26:03.520 --> 0:26:05.840
<v Speaker 1>Credit Swiss it just seems like I can't get out

0:26:05.840 --> 0:26:09.199
<v Speaker 1>of its own way. What's the latest here from my

0:26:09.320 --> 0:26:12.280
<v Speaker 1>former employer. Listen, so much of this you saw coming

0:26:12.320 --> 0:26:14.280
<v Speaker 1>in the sense that if you were making comparisons to

0:26:14.320 --> 0:26:17.040
<v Speaker 1>Deutsche Bank or other banks here, you end up getting

0:26:17.040 --> 0:26:18.919
<v Speaker 1>into a bit of a vicious cycle when you're funding

0:26:18.960 --> 0:26:22.680
<v Speaker 1>cost rise at the same time your revenue is under pressure,

0:26:23.000 --> 0:26:25.400
<v Speaker 1>and the problem for credit swises. This is all happening

0:26:25.440 --> 0:26:28.640
<v Speaker 1>also when people are very worried about the larger macroeconomic outlook.

0:26:28.840 --> 0:26:32.040
<v Speaker 1>I really like what Boaz Weinstein tweeted about two hours ago,

0:26:32.440 --> 0:26:34.840
<v Speaker 1>and he wrote that I do think that European Bank

0:26:34.960 --> 0:26:39.080
<v Speaker 1>SUBSIDIS is a good catch all tailheage for the myriad

0:26:39.119 --> 0:26:41.680
<v Speaker 1>of problem swirling around, but he hated how this weekend

0:26:41.760 --> 0:26:44.760
<v Speaker 1>was full about Twitter, full of how CS is about

0:26:44.760 --> 0:26:47.440
<v Speaker 1>to go bust, because he doesn't believe that's going to happen. Now.

0:26:47.480 --> 0:26:50.320
<v Speaker 1>This morning I was talking to another large money manager

0:26:50.720 --> 0:26:54.080
<v Speaker 1>who has made the point here that the reason he's

0:26:54.080 --> 0:26:57.120
<v Speaker 1>not worried is because this is as a diamond of Switzerland.

0:26:57.240 --> 0:27:00.600
<v Speaker 1>No one's worried. Literally, no, everyone I've talked too said

0:27:00.680 --> 0:27:04.480
<v Speaker 1>Credit Sweez is fine, There're no liquidity problems. Paul Davis,

0:27:04.520 --> 0:27:07.720
<v Speaker 1>your story the title no Credit Sweez isn't on the brink.

0:27:08.280 --> 0:27:11.440
<v Speaker 1>I don't know who's aimed at, because I've heard no

0:27:11.520 --> 0:27:14.040
<v Speaker 1>one say that there are real problems here. And yet

0:27:14.080 --> 0:27:17.399
<v Speaker 1>the shares fell eleven and a half percent at the

0:27:17.440 --> 0:27:20.680
<v Speaker 1>start of trading today and it costs fifteen percent more

0:27:20.760 --> 0:27:23.120
<v Speaker 1>to ensure the bonds against default. Why is that? Why

0:27:23.160 --> 0:27:25.760
<v Speaker 1>is the market freaking out? Yeah, well I think that.

0:27:25.920 --> 0:27:28.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean there are people who are, you know, worried

0:27:28.600 --> 0:27:31.199
<v Speaker 1>about what's going on there. I don't think there are

0:27:31.240 --> 0:27:34.040
<v Speaker 1>people there are, not sensible people worried about it actually

0:27:34.119 --> 0:27:37.000
<v Speaker 1>falling over in you know, the coming days or weeks,

0:27:37.320 --> 0:27:39.760
<v Speaker 1>because like you say, it does have plenty of capital,

0:27:40.400 --> 0:27:42.679
<v Speaker 1>and it does have plenty of liquidity, but you know,

0:27:42.760 --> 0:27:44.760
<v Speaker 1>it has a real issue in that it's got to

0:27:45.359 --> 0:27:47.840
<v Speaker 1>work out how to restructure itself. It really wants to

0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:51.240
<v Speaker 1>change its investment banks significantly and This is a very

0:27:51.240 --> 0:27:54.280
<v Speaker 1>expensive thing to do in terms of how you deal

0:27:54.320 --> 0:27:57.159
<v Speaker 1>with assets that you're carrying, all the people and the

0:27:57.240 --> 0:28:00.520
<v Speaker 1>systems that you have. So you know Rose column the

0:28:00.560 --> 0:28:02.480
<v Speaker 1>other week saying you can either do it slowly and

0:28:02.520 --> 0:28:06.080
<v Speaker 1>expensively or quickly and expensively. It's you know, it's it's

0:28:06.160 --> 0:28:10.239
<v Speaker 1>just and for investors, for credit investors, quicker would be

0:28:10.240 --> 0:28:12.560
<v Speaker 1>better to pay for it. I have a question for you,

0:28:12.800 --> 0:28:15.639
<v Speaker 1>because you know, Deutsche Bank when they did this restructuring,

0:28:15.680 --> 0:28:18.560
<v Speaker 1>they did it generally into an upmarket, which means when

0:28:18.600 --> 0:28:20.840
<v Speaker 1>they sold assets they were probably able to get higher

0:28:20.880 --> 0:28:23.359
<v Speaker 1>evaluations for them. It means that they were able to

0:28:23.359 --> 0:28:25.800
<v Speaker 1>generate revenue at a at a faster pace because the

0:28:25.840 --> 0:28:28.679
<v Speaker 1>market was more normal. And so how much is this

0:28:28.760 --> 0:28:31.280
<v Speaker 1>broader macro environment going to burn cut it, sweetz as

0:28:31.320 --> 0:28:34.639
<v Speaker 1>it makes this restructuring work for them. It's going to

0:28:34.760 --> 0:28:37.720
<v Speaker 1>be really difficult for them. And it's and it's you know,

0:28:37.800 --> 0:28:39.560
<v Speaker 1>if they'd have if they'd have tried to do this

0:28:39.800 --> 0:28:42.640
<v Speaker 1>year eighteen months ago, it would have been so much easier.

0:28:42.680 --> 0:28:45.800
<v Speaker 1>And that's and that's because the two key areas where

0:28:45.800 --> 0:28:48.160
<v Speaker 1>they are biggest and most concentrated in, which is leverage

0:28:48.200 --> 0:28:51.280
<v Speaker 1>finance funding, private exty buyouts and what they call the

0:28:51.280 --> 0:28:54.480
<v Speaker 1>Security sized Products division, which is also do with packaging

0:28:54.520 --> 0:28:56.640
<v Speaker 1>up mortgages and leverage loans and this sort of stuff

0:28:56.680 --> 0:28:59.239
<v Speaker 1>and sending them into the market. Those things were so

0:28:59.320 --> 0:29:01.840
<v Speaker 1>much better. Those markets was so much better eighteen months ago.

0:29:01.920 --> 0:29:07.520
<v Speaker 1>Now they are really unattractive, I think unattractive businesses. Everybody's

0:29:07.560 --> 0:29:11.720
<v Speaker 1>been taking write downs on their liverage, blown positions, and

0:29:11.960 --> 0:29:14.400
<v Speaker 1>on top of all of that, you know, what we

0:29:14.480 --> 0:29:18.840
<v Speaker 1>saw in UK guilt market last week with with you know,

0:29:18.880 --> 0:29:21.640
<v Speaker 1>pension funds running up against problems with their with their

0:29:21.680 --> 0:29:24.800
<v Speaker 1>investing strategies illustrates a broader problem that we're going to

0:29:24.840 --> 0:29:29.480
<v Speaker 1>have continually in markets with rising interest rates, higher volatility,

0:29:29.600 --> 0:29:34.040
<v Speaker 1>and you know, more chance of you know, unexpected problems

0:29:34.040 --> 0:29:37.400
<v Speaker 1>emerging and just kind of you know, growth in exposure

0:29:37.440 --> 0:29:40.680
<v Speaker 1>between counter parties, more collateral calls, more margin calls, all

0:29:40.720 --> 0:29:43.360
<v Speaker 1>of this sort of stuff, and that is just a

0:29:43.440 --> 0:29:45.560
<v Speaker 1>much costlier environment in which the trade and what we're

0:29:45.560 --> 0:29:48.840
<v Speaker 1>seeing with credit sweezes, you know, CDs prices, credit folts,

0:29:48.880 --> 0:29:50.480
<v Speaker 1>what price which is one of the things that people

0:29:50.480 --> 0:29:54.320
<v Speaker 1>were getting very excited about over the weekend is is

0:29:54.360 --> 0:29:57.240
<v Speaker 1>a rise in the cost of guarding against the risk

0:29:57.320 --> 0:29:59.800
<v Speaker 1>of that bank as a counterparty. And again this is

0:29:59.800 --> 0:30:03.480
<v Speaker 1>what which banks or when it just lost revenues because

0:30:03.480 --> 0:30:06.680
<v Speaker 1>it became expensive to trade with. So you know, it

0:30:06.760 --> 0:30:09.880
<v Speaker 1>just speeds into credit sweet problems. The fact that everything

0:30:09.920 --> 0:30:12.160
<v Speaker 1>is more volatile, everything is more difficult, everything is more

0:30:12.200 --> 0:30:15.080
<v Speaker 1>uncertain h and everything is just more expensive to do.

0:30:15.400 --> 0:30:18.280
<v Speaker 1>But when do you know, Um, I was thinking when

0:30:18.320 --> 0:30:21.280
<v Speaker 1>I was reading these stories over the weekend, man, I

0:30:21.320 --> 0:30:24.360
<v Speaker 1>want to sell the insurance or maybe by the stock

0:30:24.480 --> 0:30:28.920
<v Speaker 1>because clearly they're well capitalized and a lot of this

0:30:29.040 --> 0:30:34.760
<v Speaker 1>is just market noise. So when do you see a turnaround? Uh? So, well,

0:30:34.800 --> 0:30:36.160
<v Speaker 1>they've got to come up with a good plan. They've

0:30:36.160 --> 0:30:40.120
<v Speaker 1>got to come exactly so I mean, I mean hopefully

0:30:40.160 --> 0:30:42.800
<v Speaker 1>if they were, if they could, they would be really

0:30:42.800 --> 0:30:46.040
<v Speaker 1>good to do it sooner than that, because um, you know,

0:30:46.320 --> 0:30:48.560
<v Speaker 1>the pressure is only going to build and and things.

0:30:49.480 --> 0:30:51.959
<v Speaker 1>Your panic has a way of feeding on itself and

0:30:52.000 --> 0:30:54.120
<v Speaker 1>that's that's that's the kind of a worrying thing. So

0:30:54.360 --> 0:30:56.080
<v Speaker 1>if they could come down it, that would be great. Well,

0:30:56.200 --> 0:30:58.120
<v Speaker 1>really quick question here, I know, and we don't have

0:30:58.160 --> 0:30:59.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of time, laugh, But how quickly can a

0:30:59.760 --> 0:31:05.160
<v Speaker 1>third teen ct ratio falls to ten or even fifteenth

0:31:07.000 --> 0:31:09.920
<v Speaker 1>gotta fall to I mean, I don't have the numbers

0:31:09.920 --> 0:31:12.360
<v Speaker 1>off stuff my head that you would need to suffer

0:31:13.120 --> 0:31:16.880
<v Speaker 1>billions and billions and billions of dollars in losses, you know,

0:31:17.440 --> 0:31:21.280
<v Speaker 1>And this is why credit Swiss size losses well much

0:31:21.320 --> 0:31:23.959
<v Speaker 1>bigger than much bigger than ones that they've already suffered.

0:31:24.040 --> 0:31:26.120
<v Speaker 1>But I think you know, this is where Crede is

0:31:26.120 --> 0:31:28.240
<v Speaker 1>now is different from Deutsche Bank in twenty sixteen. Deutsche

0:31:28.240 --> 0:31:30.920
<v Speaker 1>Bank then had very same capital based and threats of

0:31:31.080 --> 0:31:34.440
<v Speaker 1>huge fines coming at it, and was was was in

0:31:34.480 --> 0:31:38.400
<v Speaker 1>a much weaker position, but still wasn't really in danger

0:31:38.440 --> 0:31:41.560
<v Speaker 1>of falling over credit sweezes. I mean it would take

0:31:41.800 --> 0:31:45.120
<v Speaker 1>it would take, would take more artgos and green sales, right, exactly,

0:31:45.160 --> 0:31:47.320
<v Speaker 1>all right, Paul Davis, thank you so much for joining us.

0:31:47.320 --> 0:31:51.240
<v Speaker 1>Paul Davis, Bloomberg Opinion joining us from our London offices

0:31:51.280 --> 0:31:54.440
<v Speaker 1>and chios actually covers all things Wall Street for Bloomberg

0:31:54.440 --> 0:31:56.240
<v Speaker 1>News here in New York. What do you talk to

0:31:56.240 --> 0:31:58.760
<v Speaker 1>her about league tables? We'll talk to her about league tables.

0:31:58.760 --> 0:32:01.680
<v Speaker 1>We have her on more often. You can always talk

0:32:01.680 --> 0:32:06.000
<v Speaker 1>about L E A G go on your Bloomberg terminal.

0:32:10.000 --> 0:32:13.840
<v Speaker 1>I want to get over to our Bloomberg intelligence analysts.

0:32:13.840 --> 0:32:17.680
<v Speaker 1>Who knows the most about cars? I'm pretty sure, both

0:32:17.800 --> 0:32:25.560
<v Speaker 1>in UH financial analysis terms and in actual UH motor terms. UM,

0:32:25.680 --> 0:32:27.600
<v Speaker 1>Kevin Tynan, We've got a lot to talk about with you,

0:32:27.800 --> 0:32:30.600
<v Speaker 1>but I want to start with Tesla Um. They made

0:32:31.360 --> 0:32:35.200
<v Speaker 1>three hundred and sixties six thousand vehicles in the quarter,

0:32:35.320 --> 0:32:38.400
<v Speaker 1>but they only sold three forty three thousand in a

0:32:38.480 --> 0:32:43.160
<v Speaker 1>time when people are waiting six, eight, twelve months for vehicles.

0:32:43.440 --> 0:32:48.240
<v Speaker 1>Why are they selling so many fewer than they produce. Well,

0:32:48.400 --> 0:32:52.160
<v Speaker 1>you could argue there's demand issue there, you know. And

0:32:52.200 --> 0:32:54.400
<v Speaker 1>I look, it's not just them. I think we're we're

0:32:54.440 --> 0:32:59.320
<v Speaker 1>in this little window here where UM. You're you know

0:32:59.440 --> 0:33:02.880
<v Speaker 1>that consuemer is a little bit is a little bit tentative. Um.

0:33:03.040 --> 0:33:05.360
<v Speaker 1>And you're going to see this from other automakers too.

0:33:05.360 --> 0:33:10.160
<v Speaker 1>But supply has been constrained to the point where you're

0:33:10.200 --> 0:33:13.720
<v Speaker 1>just not gonna throw good money after bad anymore. UM.

0:33:13.760 --> 0:33:16.000
<v Speaker 1>And I would think that they want this sorted out

0:33:16.080 --> 0:33:20.600
<v Speaker 1>and balance between supply and demand by Black Friday sales,

0:33:20.760 --> 0:33:24.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, November sales, end of the year clearance sales,

0:33:24.120 --> 0:33:27.240
<v Speaker 1>kind of thing. UM. So there's this little period I think,

0:33:27.520 --> 0:33:30.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, September October, maybe even the first half of November,

0:33:30.960 --> 0:33:35.600
<v Speaker 1>where UM, the automakers will let demand fall where it

0:33:35.640 --> 0:33:39.040
<v Speaker 1>will not chase it with incentives and discounting UM, and

0:33:39.040 --> 0:33:40.880
<v Speaker 1>then make a push towards the end of the year.

0:33:40.920 --> 0:33:44.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean that's what I was in Detroit last week,

0:33:44.080 --> 0:33:47.160
<v Speaker 1>and I sat down with Mark Royce Um, the president

0:33:47.160 --> 0:33:50.760
<v Speaker 1>of General Motors, drove around the Silverado EV, drove around

0:33:50.960 --> 0:33:55.920
<v Speaker 1>in the new Corvette zero six that was sick, flat

0:33:55.920 --> 0:33:59.959
<v Speaker 1>plane crank um. He was saying, you know there or

0:34:00.040 --> 0:34:03.840
<v Speaker 1>her book is full. Their pipeline is deep, um and

0:34:04.520 --> 0:34:06.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, going going into next year, and they had

0:34:06.720 --> 0:34:09.840
<v Speaker 1>a fantastic third quarter as well, but at some point,

0:34:09.880 --> 0:34:13.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, it can't continue to demand now GM, I

0:34:13.920 --> 0:34:17.319
<v Speaker 1>feel like it's not the high end for the most part.

0:34:17.400 --> 0:34:20.600
<v Speaker 1>That well, I say that and their truck selfer sometimes

0:34:20.600 --> 0:34:22.799
<v Speaker 1>over a hundred thousand dollars. But so that that we

0:34:22.840 --> 0:34:25.160
<v Speaker 1>imagine Tesla as more of a luxury car maker, right,

0:34:25.200 --> 0:34:28.640
<v Speaker 1>but GM brings out new models Tesla, I feel like

0:34:28.680 --> 0:34:32.040
<v Speaker 1>they've been making the same old tired designs for a decade.

0:34:32.200 --> 0:34:35.799
<v Speaker 1>My alone on that Kevin well again, you know, it's

0:34:35.840 --> 0:34:39.719
<v Speaker 1>more of a device maker than an automaker. And it's

0:34:39.960 --> 0:34:42.279
<v Speaker 1>and I've said this a million times, you know, and

0:34:42.520 --> 0:34:44.960
<v Speaker 1>from in the mindset of Tesla, it's not so much

0:34:45.000 --> 0:34:50.080
<v Speaker 1>about the vehicle right about um, what it looks like.

0:34:50.200 --> 0:34:52.080
<v Speaker 1>It's just what it can do, sort of the way

0:34:52.120 --> 0:34:54.399
<v Speaker 1>your phone is not about what it looks like. It's

0:34:54.440 --> 0:34:57.080
<v Speaker 1>about all the you know, Angry Birds games you can

0:34:57.120 --> 0:35:00.000
<v Speaker 1>play on it and whatever, um, you know. And I've

0:35:00.000 --> 0:35:03.799
<v Speaker 1>feel like that's where they positioned themselves a little bit

0:35:03.840 --> 0:35:06.359
<v Speaker 1>and then market positions them as a as a tech

0:35:06.440 --> 0:35:11.080
<v Speaker 1>company because it's not so much about changing design and

0:35:11.160 --> 0:35:15.480
<v Speaker 1>changing features and options and colors and content in the vehicle,

0:35:16.239 --> 0:35:18.719
<v Speaker 1>um in the way that we're used to seeing other

0:35:18.800 --> 0:35:22.200
<v Speaker 1>automakers address those issues. Kevin, give us a sense of

0:35:22.280 --> 0:35:25.080
<v Speaker 1>just the landscape here. I mean, you know, when I

0:35:25.160 --> 0:35:28.520
<v Speaker 1>was growing up Detroit and the others, they made seventeen

0:35:28.520 --> 0:35:30.799
<v Speaker 1>million cars every year. Are we going to go and

0:35:30.800 --> 0:35:33.520
<v Speaker 1>there's tons of cars on the lots. You could go

0:35:33.640 --> 0:35:36.560
<v Speaker 1>negotiate a little bit if you felt like it. What's

0:35:36.600 --> 0:35:40.160
<v Speaker 1>the Is that world ever coming back? I don't think so.

0:35:40.600 --> 0:35:44.520
<v Speaker 1>Um And and that's not to say never, but I

0:35:44.560 --> 0:35:48.080
<v Speaker 1>don't think the automakers want it there, The dealers don't

0:35:48.080 --> 0:35:51.120
<v Speaker 1>want it there. The consumer wants it there only because

0:35:51.520 --> 0:35:54.279
<v Speaker 1>of that haggling and the discounting and the incentives that

0:35:54.280 --> 0:35:57.960
<v Speaker 1>were really the way the business in the industry ran was,

0:35:58.080 --> 0:36:00.680
<v Speaker 1>We're going to produce these things to cover fixed costs

0:36:00.719 --> 0:36:04.160
<v Speaker 1>and create generate cash flow, and then we'll figure out

0:36:04.160 --> 0:36:06.920
<v Speaker 1>how to sell it tomorrow by throwing money at the problem,

0:36:06.920 --> 0:36:11.280
<v Speaker 1>which is hey, ten thousand cash back or gero percent

0:36:11.400 --> 0:36:14.479
<v Speaker 1>financing for you know, twenty months or whatever it winds

0:36:14.560 --> 0:36:17.920
<v Speaker 1>up being. And the automakers, now that the costs are rationalized,

0:36:17.920 --> 0:36:20.760
<v Speaker 1>and that's something that's been happening since the bankruptcy period

0:36:20.800 --> 0:36:24.839
<v Speaker 1>of eight oh nine UM through the pandemic, have gotten

0:36:24.880 --> 0:36:27.319
<v Speaker 1>to the point where they don't need to operate in

0:36:27.360 --> 0:36:32.040
<v Speaker 1>that way anymore. So, you know, an unhealthy seventeen million

0:36:32.120 --> 0:36:35.560
<v Speaker 1>is what we were used to and now we're at

0:36:35.560 --> 0:36:40.040
<v Speaker 1>a healthy thirteen, fourteen, fifteen million. And I think, you know,

0:36:40.200 --> 0:36:42.960
<v Speaker 1>from that side of it, from the business perspective of it,

0:36:43.360 --> 0:36:45.200
<v Speaker 1>this is where the industry wants to be and as

0:36:45.280 --> 0:36:50.240
<v Speaker 1>and has actually worked decades to get to. In terms

0:36:50.400 --> 0:36:54.800
<v Speaker 1>of the dealership model, I've never understood why the US

0:36:54.880 --> 0:37:00.319
<v Speaker 1>has this arcane system. How long until that's dead? I

0:37:00.360 --> 0:37:04.640
<v Speaker 1>mean surely Ford and GM and Harley are going to

0:37:04.760 --> 0:37:10.440
<v Speaker 1>sell their products through their own stores eventually. Look, I

0:37:10.440 --> 0:37:12.600
<v Speaker 1>I am on the side of the dealer in this.

0:37:12.800 --> 0:37:16.280
<v Speaker 1>I think if you hate the dealership experience, that means

0:37:16.320 --> 0:37:18.319
<v Speaker 1>that it needs to improve. And I and I don't

0:37:18.400 --> 0:37:23.040
<v Speaker 1>question that. But could you imagine an automaker trying to

0:37:23.080 --> 0:37:26.160
<v Speaker 1>sell what GM sells in the U, say, you know,

0:37:26.280 --> 0:37:29.960
<v Speaker 1>roughly three million vehicles in the US every year. Directly

0:37:30.480 --> 0:37:33.520
<v Speaker 1>they're a manufacturer that people would argue aren't very good

0:37:33.520 --> 0:37:35.560
<v Speaker 1>as a manufacturer. Now all of a sudden, they're going

0:37:35.600 --> 0:37:38.919
<v Speaker 1>to be a great retailer. I just don't understand how

0:37:38.960 --> 0:37:42.719
<v Speaker 1>people think that way, that at volume you're going to

0:37:42.840 --> 0:37:45.200
<v Speaker 1>be a better retailer than a retailer. I mean when

0:37:45.200 --> 0:37:47.440
<v Speaker 1>you need so they're gonna go there, right, I mean

0:37:47.480 --> 0:37:49.920
<v Speaker 1>GM not. It seems like, you know, Royce said, you know,

0:37:49.960 --> 0:37:52.480
<v Speaker 1>we debated this and we're going to stick to our

0:37:52.520 --> 0:37:56.400
<v Speaker 1>guns here. But the but Farley has split off the

0:37:56.440 --> 0:37:59.000
<v Speaker 1>e V s. It seems like that's why he hates

0:37:59.040 --> 0:38:02.720
<v Speaker 1>the dealerships. Um Harley just split off its EV business

0:38:02.840 --> 0:38:05.040
<v Speaker 1>to live Wire, which by the way, is on fire

0:38:05.080 --> 0:38:07.359
<v Speaker 1>today in the markets. I don't know why. I mean,

0:38:07.800 --> 0:38:10.080
<v Speaker 1>it seems they want to go direct to consumer as well,

0:38:10.320 --> 0:38:13.720
<v Speaker 1>but even Farley's model for now is not direct. They're

0:38:13.760 --> 0:38:16.080
<v Speaker 1>just telling dealers that they have to invest in a

0:38:16.200 --> 0:38:20.160
<v Speaker 1>charge point at their store. Uh, they have to train texts,

0:38:20.239 --> 0:38:23.640
<v Speaker 1>they have to train their salespeople to understand the technology.

0:38:23.640 --> 0:38:26.200
<v Speaker 1>They're not saying, we'll do it directly. And what they're

0:38:26.200 --> 0:38:28.680
<v Speaker 1>telling dealers also is if you don't want to invest

0:38:28.719 --> 0:38:31.440
<v Speaker 1>in these things, which the estimate is about one point

0:38:31.440 --> 0:38:34.640
<v Speaker 1>two million dollars per dealership, is to say, well, then

0:38:34.680 --> 0:38:37.239
<v Speaker 1>you can't have e V inventory and you can't have

0:38:37.400 --> 0:38:41.880
<v Speaker 1>EV demos um. So they're sort of forcing the dealers

0:38:41.920 --> 0:38:44.400
<v Speaker 1>into it, but it's not an issue. Or they'll say

0:38:44.920 --> 0:38:47.279
<v Speaker 1>you have to have an order for one before we

0:38:47.360 --> 0:38:49.840
<v Speaker 1>send you one. You can't. You can't have anything sold

0:38:49.880 --> 0:38:52.520
<v Speaker 1>off the lot um. So it's not direct. I mean,

0:38:52.520 --> 0:38:55.120
<v Speaker 1>it's a it's a way of doing it direct, but look,

0:38:55.120 --> 0:38:58.520
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't work at scale. I think you as a consumer,

0:38:58.680 --> 0:39:02.760
<v Speaker 1>we as a consumer, will have horrible experience buying vehicles

0:39:02.800 --> 0:39:07.320
<v Speaker 1>directly and trying to get them serviced um from manufacturers

0:39:07.400 --> 0:39:09.239
<v Speaker 1>if they assume the role of a retailer. I just

0:39:09.280 --> 0:39:11.719
<v Speaker 1>can't imagine having a good experience at a dealership here

0:39:11.719 --> 0:39:14.120
<v Speaker 1>in the US. You know, I've bought a fair amount

0:39:14.120 --> 0:39:17.160
<v Speaker 1>of cars and never enjoyed it. Now, on the other hand,

0:39:17.320 --> 0:39:21.280
<v Speaker 1>go buy a nine eleven at Porsche in Berlin, operated

0:39:21.280 --> 0:39:24.560
<v Speaker 1>directly by the company, and you have a great experience. Right.

0:39:24.600 --> 0:39:27.480
<v Speaker 1>But talk about three million a year though not not

0:39:27.680 --> 0:39:30.800
<v Speaker 1>a niche product or you know, a couple of thousands

0:39:30.800 --> 0:39:34.239
<v Speaker 1>of units a year. It's very different at scale. You

0:39:34.320 --> 0:39:36.640
<v Speaker 1>got I mean, as gmm, gonna go to Paduca, Kentucky

0:39:36.719 --> 0:39:38.840
<v Speaker 1>to sell a car and you gotta put some local

0:39:38.880 --> 0:39:41.120
<v Speaker 1>person here. I don't know. So next time I'm gonna

0:39:41.120 --> 0:39:43.200
<v Speaker 1>figure out what Kevin Tynan is driving because it changes

0:39:43.280 --> 0:39:45.040
<v Speaker 1>like everything. They probably have a fact that they build

0:39:45.040 --> 0:39:51.080
<v Speaker 1>corvettes in your Paduca exactly. Automotive analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence

0:39:51.160 --> 0:39:52.960
<v Speaker 1>Bowling Green is in Great Town. Spend a lot of

0:39:52.960 --> 0:39:57.480
<v Speaker 1>time there. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.

0:39:57.840 --> 0:40:01.080
<v Speaker 1>You can subscribe and listen to interviews a full podcasts

0:40:01.200 --> 0:40:05.120
<v Speaker 1>or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm

0:40:05.120 --> 0:40:09.359
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at Matt Miller three on Fall Sweeney. I'm

0:40:09.360 --> 0:40:12.000
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can

0:40:12.040 --> 0:40:14.239
<v Speaker 1>always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio