Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock That.
Speaker 2: We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
Speaker 1: This is the show that makes the squares sharper and
Speaker 1: makes the wise guys pay attention.
Speaker 2: I am Chad Milman, I am.
Speaker 1: Joined as always buy my BFF, my companion, Mike Campadre,
Speaker 1: my co host, Professional Better Sigmon Hunter.
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon, Chad.
Speaker 3: Are we doing?
Speaker 1: I don't feel like I got English enough on that.
Speaker 1: Heedo soymon A's beat.
Speaker 2: There you go, dude. There is so much.
Speaker 1: News impacting the lines since the trade deadline, and there's
Speaker 1: also just been general massive line movement overall since we
Speaker 1: did our show on Tuesday.
Speaker 2: Freaking wild, absolutely freaking wild.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you've got any deep deep thoughts
Speaker 1: on that. Let's hold them because I want to hear
Speaker 1: what the wise guys have to say in sharp calls.
Speaker 1: This is our Thursday, Week ten episode. We're going to
Speaker 1: narrow down the options on the five picks we like
Speaker 1: the best. We're going to inch our way closer. Subscribe
Speaker 1: to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get
Speaker 1: into this thing. Every week, you know what we do.
Speaker 1: We are going to hear from Simon's fellow professional betters
Speaker 1: on all the conversations we had on Tuesday, they've always
Speaker 1: got opinions. I have no doubt they'll have a lot
Speaker 1: of things to say about what we discussed.
Speaker 2: Let's get too sharp, calls.
Speaker 3: Hal answer, it's foot all.
Speaker 2: Right, rain range, telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what you do.
Speaker 4: Man, Yeah, let's start where you guys are on the
Speaker 4: opposite of us, which you know I always always love
Speaker 4: here on the other side. And the one that really
Speaker 4: jumped out was the Chargers. Hearing a lot of love
Speaker 4: from the pros on the Chargers, maybe we're suckers. I
Speaker 4: just can't get over again. Plus three here. I just
Speaker 4: that's gonna be a fun one to break down.
Speaker 1: Some Yeah we're gonna that's the Chargers Steelers game, and yeah,
Speaker 1: we're definitely gonna discuss that one.
Speaker 3: So good.
Speaker 4: But yeah, a lot of pros love the Chargers, Big Chargers,
Speaker 4: Chargers spot. I guess let's start with the Rams as well.
Speaker 4: A lot of pros I talked to Tuck Rams money
Speaker 4: shocked by that one. Commanders was a big talking point
Speaker 4: this week. I definitely remember us, or at least myself.
Speaker 4: I like Detroit. I still do. I'm happy they're betting
Speaker 4: it down. That's a fun one. We can break down
Speaker 4: some more. Patriots, couldn't believe it. A lot of love
Speaker 4: from the Patriots. I once again, I'm dug in. I like,
Speaker 4: really like Tampa. Starting to love it even more as
Speaker 4: I see the injury report and what guys are healthy
Speaker 4: for this Tampa team. So pretty interesting how much love
Speaker 4: there is for this Patriots side and the sides we
Speaker 4: agree on. Chad, we already knew Jets that was gonna
Speaker 4: be a pro side. Yeah, it's it's fluctuated the numbers
Speaker 4: since the trade deadline.
Speaker 3: That's gonna be a fun one to break down. Miami.
Speaker 4: Tons of love from the pros. Tons of love for Houston.
Speaker 4: I'm going against the pros here. I didn't even mention
Speaker 4: it the Raiders. Talk to some pros that really like
Speaker 4: that one again. Another game I'll hold steady fast and
Speaker 4: I really like Denver in that spot and the last
Speaker 4: one that shocked me. Tons of love for the pros
Speaker 4: on this Bear side game that I feel like we
Speaker 4: were kind of on the other side of it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, talk that we.
Speaker 4: Kind of like the Giants. I'll give you some reasons
Speaker 4: why they liked that Bear side.
Speaker 3: If we break that game down later.
Speaker 1: Oh, we're going to break it down because it's one
Speaker 1: of the games that I was thinking about, and it
Speaker 1: was in contention for brass Balls because that number has
Speaker 1: moved quite a bit and I haven't been able to
Speaker 1: figure out why other than professional money coming in on
Speaker 1: the Bears in this spot. So you also mentioned another
Speaker 1: game that I've been getting more and more nervous about,
Speaker 1: which is The Box, because I cannot figure out how
Speaker 1: that line hasn't moved from two and a half to
Speaker 1: three yet. So some pushback from the Wise guys is
Speaker 1: probably why. But first let's get to that Raiders Broncos game. Obviously,
Speaker 1: it's our Thursday show, so a lot of people might
Speaker 1: not hear. I might not hear the show until after
Speaker 1: the game. You're getting some feedback from the professionals on
Speaker 1: the Raiders' side. We both love Denver and like this
Speaker 1: wasn't even a question. We actually were debating if Denver
Speaker 1: was going to be Simon Says or Chat's choice because
Speaker 1: we both liked it so much. We liked it at
Speaker 1: eight and a half, it's now at nine and a half.
Speaker 1: I don't know what the Wise guys are seeing in
Speaker 1: the Raiders. You can't take anything from that game against
Speaker 1: a Jags team that lost their best pass rusher because
Speaker 1: he tried to punch a guy in the face, and
Speaker 1: you're still playing against a not very good defense. Brock
Speaker 1: Bauers was wide open every game. I mean, every play.
Speaker 1: Isn't all this stuff that Broncos can account for in
Speaker 1: a short week in a game the Raiders went to
Speaker 1: a full overtime and they're not a very good team.
Speaker 2: I don't get it. I don't get it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think mister White, guys I talked to, they
Speaker 4: just don't trust, you know, a quarter about like bow
Speaker 4: Knicks to be this big of a favorite in a
Speaker 4: divisional game, especially if you look at the history of Denver, right,
Speaker 4: And this is the hardest part too, because to me,
Speaker 4: it's a lot of it's irrelevant the history of Denver
Speaker 4: before Champagne took over. But they have not won against
Speaker 4: a divisional opponent in our primetime game since like twenty seventeen.
Speaker 2: Okay, doesn't matter, doesn't matter.
Speaker 4: That was my exact pushback. It's like, well, if you
Speaker 4: look at those teams from those years, they were bad,
Speaker 4: They had bad coaches, they just weren't good, and they've
Speaker 4: been in a really competitive, tough division all throughout those years.
Speaker 4: So that makes sense though why they'd push back because
Speaker 4: it is technically a huge number in a divisional game in.
Speaker 3: A short week. But I already gave it out.
Speaker 4: I gave out that overtime stat, which to me is
Speaker 4: just makes so much sense, and it was actually wrong.
Speaker 3: I thought it was three and twenty three.
Speaker 4: I forgot last year the Bears and this exact spot
Speaker 4: actually won uncovered or covered last year against the Lions.
Speaker 4: Remember that insanely fluky game on Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1: Yeah, dude, where the Lions should have been up seventy
Speaker 1: two to nothing in the first half, and.
Speaker 4: Then even then they're up twenty one nothing or twenty
Speaker 4: one to three the first half, and somehow Bears came
Speaker 4: back and covered really late. So you know, I'm not
Speaker 4: gonna get pushed off this one. I get where they're
Speaker 4: coming from, and I'm with you. I just think defensively, schematically,
Speaker 4: they can take away bowers and then what are you
Speaker 4: going to do as an offense, Like, I know they're
Speaker 4: trying to establish a run, but it just now has
Speaker 4: been working. Chip Kelly whatever he's going to do. It's
Speaker 4: not been working with that run game and Gino.
Speaker 3: I still think.
Speaker 4: Even in that game, as good as he looked, he
Speaker 4: still had so many horrible throws, so much questionable moving
Speaker 4: with his feet, and it's just a really tough spot.
Speaker 4: Offs We talked about it being on a short week
Speaker 4: here on the road against the Denver team that you know,
Speaker 4: we put it as one of the best teams in
Speaker 4: all football, like we're respecting that way defensively, especially, so
Speaker 4: I know it's a lot to swallow bow nixt year,
Speaker 4: but I can't get away from it.
Speaker 3: Cha.
Speaker 4: I really like it, And I don't know, maybe we
Speaker 4: do put in the contest multiple figure it out because
Speaker 4: there are five games I like this week. But people
Speaker 4: know I really love this game. I love this matchup.
Speaker 4: First half, full game, Debra, I'm.
Speaker 3: All over it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, same, same, same, not shame, same. Maybe we'll be shamed,
Speaker 1: but I don't think so. This was one like coming
Speaker 1: out of my one in four malaise. This is one
Speaker 1: of the games that made me start to feel like, Okay,
Speaker 1: I can see it, I have clarity, I'm feeling confident,
Speaker 1: felt good about this one.
Speaker 3: God we need it. We cannot start the week O one.
Speaker 1: Dude, we freaking need it, as Bob Scuccy, our old
Speaker 1: friend Bob Scuccy like to say, we need this for
Speaker 1: our lungs. We are underwater, all right, New York Giants
Speaker 1: at the Chicago Bears. This line, it.
Speaker 2: Blew up over the last forty eight hours.
Speaker 1: It got up to four and a half. It's down
Speaker 1: to four at hard Rock. We've talked about hard Rock.
Speaker 1: It's a sharp book, so that gives communication of what
Speaker 1: the wise guys think when this line got to four
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 2: But they also love the Bears at three.
Speaker 1: They love the Bears at three and a half, and
Speaker 1: some pushed it up too, from four to four and
Speaker 1: a half. I started to see the Giants and I
Speaker 1: talked about this on Tuesday. The Bears run defense is
Speaker 1: so bad, and I mean not their run defense. Their
Speaker 1: past defense is so bad, and their secondary is so bad.
Speaker 1: You could see how Jackson Dark could have a lot
Speaker 1: of success against the Bears and a defense that, by
Speaker 1: the way, has not been able to hold anybody under
Speaker 1: a twenty five point game. I'm exaggerating, but that's basically
Speaker 1: the line of demarcation here. Unless they were committing forcing
Speaker 1: a bunch of turnovers. They won with the Commander. They
Speaker 1: went against the Commanders because of a bad handoff that
Speaker 1: got them to win. In that primetime game against Jayden Daniels,
Speaker 1: they beat the Cowboys because of a bunch of turnovers.
Speaker 1: They beat the Saints, which still came close to covering
Speaker 1: because of a bunch of turnovers. Every other game they've had,
Speaker 1: it's going down to the wire and it's close, and
Speaker 1: they're winning because there's something fluky happening, and because Ben
Speaker 1: Johnson is a miracle, not because this team is very good.
Speaker 1: So four and a half just feels like too many points.
Speaker 1: I'm surprised to hear the wise guys say they're liking
Speaker 1: the Bears here.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm probably gonna have to join on me at Chad,
Speaker 4: I if you really don't like a side here, I
Speaker 4: think there is still a value on the total. Total
Speaker 4: is down to forty six and a half, and all
Speaker 4: the reason behind this movement, to me is because of
Speaker 4: the weather. People like, we're tracking models, you're getting some info,
Speaker 4: and right now a bunch of different models are predicting
Speaker 4: rain or snow and very cold temperature in this matchup,
Speaker 4: which to me favors this Bears team that wants to
Speaker 4: run the ball heavily and has one of the best
Speaker 4: run schemes off football against the defense that is really bad.
Speaker 3: Giants are bottom thirty in the league.
Speaker 2: They're they're the worst, are they now?
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the Bears.
Speaker 1: Like, you're right, I'm just like, obviously, I have a
Speaker 1: strong opinion about the Bears. Their run offense has been
Speaker 1: so good and that is a major major factor against
Speaker 1: this team. And the weather, you're right, could be it
Speaker 1: just might play into the way Ben Johnson wants to
Speaker 1: play this game. It'll give an excuse not to let
Speaker 1: Kayleb Williams throw the ball.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and again it's you can take these positions and
Speaker 4: get out of it Sunday if this all blows over
Speaker 4: and these models wire turarly off, but you know they're
Speaker 4: shooting pretty accurate. Two three days out here, the line
Speaker 4: has come down from forty nine to forty six and
Speaker 4: a half. They'll let you know. The books are getting
Speaker 4: really really respected money heavily towards the under. But you're
Speaker 4: looking at the splits right now, it's still mostly towards
Speaker 4: the over. I mean, the tickets and the money say
Speaker 4: towards the over. At the public obviously, like we talked about,
Speaker 4: they're going to be on this Bears team, Like, no
Speaker 4: one's going to be trusting the Giants right now, like
Speaker 4: what we talked about, right That's why we kind of
Speaker 4: like this the Ghiants team. This feels like a good
Speaker 4: spot for them, playing against an inflated Bears team that
Speaker 4: got really lucky. They covered all those for those people
Speaker 4: last week, and those people are coming back now hitting
Speaker 4: the Bears again.
Speaker 3: So I'm like you, I wanted to be on the Giants.
Speaker 4: Were shocked to hear the professionals were taking these heavy
Speaker 4: positions on the Bears, and now you dive into it
Speaker 4: and see what the weather could be like, this just
Speaker 4: feels are a great spot for the Bear scene. Compared
Speaker 4: to a young rookie quarterback in Jackson Dart who already
Speaker 4: has fumbling issues now playing in bad element weather, I
Speaker 4: don't know. I just I can't get there the Giants
Speaker 4: if I know that's scenario. So yeah, just if you
Speaker 4: wantn't want to take as side here, I still think
Speaker 4: the underreas value on it.
Speaker 2: I hate the Bears in this spot.
Speaker 3: I know it's such a Giants number, it's brutal.
Speaker 1: Such a giant's number. I'm gonna wait. I'm just waiting.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to get to five. But
Speaker 1: I'd rather just see the weather and know what I'm
Speaker 1: betting into on Sunday. I don't have to bet this one,
Speaker 1: So for me, I'm gonna wait. New Orleans at Carolina.
Speaker 1: Carolina is a five point favorite. Five and a half,
Speaker 1: move to five, still five at hard Rock, five and
Speaker 1: a half in a lot of other places. I want
Speaker 1: to say play the number, but the truth is, like
Speaker 1: this number home or road Division dogs of five plus points,
Speaker 1: It's basically a fifty to fifty proposition. So if you're
Speaker 1: looking at it from that point of view, there is
Speaker 1: no real edge in terms of historical precedent. Caroline at
Speaker 1: home is great. The Russian game is great. They're really confident.
Speaker 1: The Saints are not. They might not have an NFL
Speaker 1: quarterback on their roster.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the number just spooks you. It sews me too.
Speaker 4: I'll probably end up just taking a large position with
Speaker 4: Carolina on the money line and just avoid this game
Speaker 4: if I can, because it does feel like it's mispriced,
Speaker 4: and this is a great spot for this Carolina team
Speaker 4: at home again, it's what we just said is just
Speaker 4: a non existent offensive quarterback and could he show up
Speaker 4: here and have a game of his life. Yeah, we've
Speaker 4: seen that happen all the time. Right, these guys pop
Speaker 4: for one game. But just as a betting man, I
Speaker 4: love this number and working against the Panthers just the
Speaker 4: issue of them being a favorite, right, I think they're
Speaker 4: on a crazy streak. They're zero to ten as a favorite.
Speaker 4: And that's a lot of bright young too. I think
Speaker 4: he has three or four games mixed in there. So yeah,
Speaker 4: I'm a game. I'm not basterly having into. It's just
Speaker 4: I found other games this week I like a lot more.
Speaker 4: But still on Carolina side, still taking the number at
Speaker 4: minus five, but much more comfortable putting their money line
Speaker 4: in it. Wow, it's up to the minus two forty five,
Speaker 4: so people been hitting it. It was rest and yeah
Speaker 4: it's been getting hit, this money line on the Panthers.
Speaker 1: You know a game that we are into and I
Speaker 1: hate to say it, and maybe it's the sickos in us.
Speaker 1: The Cleveland Browns are visiting the New York Jets on Tuesday.
Speaker 1: When we started the show, the Jets I think were
Speaker 1: two point favorites. It had gone up from one and
Speaker 1: a half to two. During the show, the news broke
Speaker 1: that Sauce Gardner was being traded to the Indianapolis Colts
Speaker 1: for multiple picks. Later in the day, it was announced
Speaker 1: that the Jets were trading Quinn Williams, their star defensive tackle,
Speaker 1: to the Dallas Cowboys for multiple picks. Yesterday, it was
Speaker 1: announced that Quincy Williams, the Jets starting linebacker Quinn's brother,
Speaker 1: All Pro in twenty twenty three, was being benched for
Speaker 1: lack of performance. We still don't know who the quarterback
Speaker 1: is going to be for the New York Jets. On Sunday,
Speaker 1: the New York Jets GM said that the Jets are
Speaker 1: still trying to win. He knows how much those guys try.
Speaker 1: We are st trying to win this season.
Speaker 2: Quote.
Speaker 1: Maybe he and Aaron Glenn are not in the same page,
Speaker 1: because Aaron Glenn said yesterday, I said we would make
Speaker 1: the fans proud. I didn't say it would be this season.
Speaker 1: That gives you a lot of confidence. Here's the problem.
Speaker 1: Here's the problem, Simon, You're ready. The line has moved
Speaker 1: to Jets plus two at hard Rock plus two and
Speaker 1: a half everywhere else and the fundamentals of this game
Speaker 1: remained the same. It was never about the Jets defense.
Speaker 1: It's about the Jets offense against the Browns defense. Because
Speaker 1: we have zero expectations at Dylan Gabriel, whether he's playing
Speaker 1: Quinn Williams or Sat Gardner, whoever else is going to
Speaker 1: be playing in those positions, is not an NFL quarterback.
Speaker 1: So we were betting when we liked the Jets the
Speaker 1: other day against Dylan Gabriel. All why wouldn't we still
Speaker 1: be betting against Dylan Gabriel. This is a massive move.
Speaker 4: Yeah, a game though I needed to be Justin Field's Honestly,
Speaker 4: I know it sounds stupid, but I like his matchup
Speaker 4: a lot against this defensive front in the Cleveland and
Speaker 4: Shockling his career. He does really well against these type
Speaker 4: of defensive fronts when he plays a defensive front that's
Speaker 4: you know, got a high sack rate about four percent.
Speaker 4: He's four and two against the spreading his career, which
Speaker 4: again doesn't sound great if you look at Justin Field's career,
Speaker 4: It's probably the only positive ats Daddy has when.
Speaker 3: You really dive into it.
Speaker 4: He's just not a covering guy his whole career he's
Speaker 4: just had a rough go of it, and looking at
Speaker 4: this matchup, it really is kind of weird that the
Speaker 4: public is so comfortable hammering this brown side even with
Speaker 4: all the trades. Even before that we were talking on
Speaker 4: our show, they were loving him then as a favorite,
Speaker 4: I mean as an underdog. Now they're really still loving
Speaker 4: him as a as a favorite. And this to me is
Speaker 4: going to come down tons of pros, I know, professional groups.
Speaker 4: When I come on the Jets, I mean again, I
Speaker 4: get what we're doing it, but there I am also
Speaker 4: a little weary of betting this one because we have
Speaker 4: to remember these arghuman beings. How are they going to
Speaker 4: respond to what just happened from their front office? Like
Speaker 4: their front office basically just wave the white flag on
Speaker 4: the season like they I agree with it too. I
Speaker 4: mean some Jet fans are complaining. It's like, dude, you guys,
Speaker 4: that was like our dream scenario. You dump two guys
Speaker 4: that I don't want to say they're being overpaid, but
Speaker 4: just they're not going to help you get to where
Speaker 4: you need to be in the next two to three years.
Speaker 4: You need to totally tear it down. So you know, Dallas,
Speaker 4: horrible trade. In my opinion, Colt's very questionable. But you know,
Speaker 4: for the Jets, I love the move. You're stocking up
Speaker 4: in what should be really good drafts. Now to have
Speaker 4: the front office to make the right picks, that's to
Speaker 4: be determined. So just for this game chat, I like it.
Speaker 4: It's really about the number though, this to me is
Speaker 4: going to come down if you can still get the
Speaker 4: plus two plus two and a half. You hear this,
Speaker 4: I would take the position on the Jets once it
Speaker 4: gets blowed the two. I don't know how much I'm
Speaker 4: gonna be invested in here until I know exactly who
Speaker 4: the quarterback is going to be, and if that is
Speaker 4: in fact justin fields, we can re re enter this
Speaker 4: one on Sunday morning. Talk about putting in the contest,
Speaker 4: but you said it right now, I'm betting into the
Speaker 4: two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am as well.
Speaker 1: The flip side of the team sort of being frustrated
Speaker 1: is you guys get a chance to prove themselves in
Speaker 1: a wide open situation and put on tape for somebody
Speaker 1: for next season how well they can play.
Speaker 2: I don't.
Speaker 1: I just I never buy the fact that guys are
Speaker 1: going to stop competing. When you're a professional athlete getting paid,
Speaker 1: you want to stay in the league.
Speaker 2: This is your best chance to do it.
Speaker 1: There's gonna be a guy who's getting a chance to start,
Speaker 1: a cornerback who hasn't a chance to do that.
Speaker 4: Oh, I'm in Like on the like Breese Hall, Briesaw
Speaker 4: had a foot out the door, was almost on the
Speaker 4: Kansas City Chiefs. Kn't it wake up today? And he's
Speaker 4: still on the Jets. That's got to be weird mentally,
Speaker 4: Like yeah, and I'm sure you'll get it back. He's
Speaker 4: a professional. I just think of all of those snares
Speaker 4: like that, the guys on this team, you know, you're
Speaker 4: so close to being on a winning team. Obviously not everybody.
Speaker 4: I mean some guys went the Dallas. That's a that's
Speaker 4: a tough trade, but you know, I just I thought
Speaker 4: it was really interesting that they didn't move Brisoll because
Speaker 4: they apparently wanted a third and then take a fourth
Speaker 4: and it's like, what are you doing, Jets?
Speaker 3: Just sell it all, man, you're trying to lose here
Speaker 3: and Bristol.
Speaker 4: Again and some of it's back the Jets here. I
Speaker 4: am so happy he's still on this team, they need
Speaker 4: them offensively. He's by far their best weapon.
Speaker 1: Well look, the flip side is Brisall keeps showing how
Speaker 1: good he is, and next year he just gets a
Speaker 1: bigger deal from somebody. Yeah, so you know, so yeah,
Speaker 1: I hate to say it, but we're kind of on
Speaker 1: the Jets Jacksonville at Houston.
Speaker 2: Houston.
Speaker 1: Look, on Tuesday we talked about wanting to wait on
Speaker 1: this game until Houston was an underdog. Houston is an underdog.
Speaker 1: It's one at Hard rocked that one and a half
Speaker 1: in a lot of other places.
Speaker 2: We're just betting on the defense.
Speaker 1: We're not betting on Davis Mills, who we would expect
Speaker 1: Davis Mills is going to be a little bit better
Speaker 1: because I mean, obviously he has limitations, but he's got
Speaker 1: a full week of practice. He's not coming in and
Speaker 1: then end at the beginning of the second quarter any
Speaker 1: game plan that was built for somebody else entirely. So
Speaker 1: I like, I still like Houston here a lot. I
Speaker 1: like him as an underdog a lot.
Speaker 3: Simon be patient. Hard Rock here in Jersey's already just
Speaker 3: moved the plus two.
Speaker 4: So really, yeah, so there's gonna be money coming on
Speaker 4: the Jaguars. The Jags have owned the Texans again their
Speaker 4: last couple of meetings. They've just even when CJ has
Speaker 4: been the quarterback, they've kind of owned them. It's a
Speaker 4: really weird matchup, just divisional. When you talk about time,
Speaker 4: there's a couple of divisional games this week, you'll I'll
Speaker 4: give out the trends. There's just trends that favors certain teams,
Speaker 4: certain matchups.
Speaker 3: So yeah, game, I'm going with you on.
Speaker 4: I really love the Texans here, but I'm trying to
Speaker 4: be patient, trying to avoid this if I can, because
Speaker 4: it's like I'm not going to force this one unless
Speaker 4: I'm getting really good numb or so.
Speaker 3: It's two at hard Rock right now.
Speaker 4: A couple of books, like we say hard Rock's a
Speaker 4: short book, A couple of public books have already popped
Speaker 4: two and a half, so this could get to three
Speaker 4: by Sunday. Like I just see the public really coming
Speaker 4: on this Jaguars team as the week goes along. Here
Speaker 4: again it's it's Davis Mills, Like I get it, like
Speaker 4: there should be a great spot for this Jaguars team,
Speaker 4: and we love Houston defense. They can only do so much,
Speaker 4: like we say, all the time. So I'm like you,
Speaker 4: I still like Houston. I'm gonna be patient here, get
Speaker 4: a better number. Like I said, this is moving up people.
Speaker 4: You can get two and a half right now, key number.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna grab down Houston.
Speaker 2: A lot of.
Speaker 1: A lot of sort of be patient conversation right now because.
Speaker 3: The numbers are moving against us.
Speaker 4: I just don't want to take bad numbers here and
Speaker 4: when we can get it looks like we're gonna get
Speaker 4: some good numbers this weekend, right.
Speaker 1: So if you can get I would say, you can
Speaker 1: get Houston two and a half. Get Houston two and
Speaker 1: a half. I don't know that it'll go to three.
Speaker 1: At some point, there's going to be like an aggressive
Speaker 1: amount of buyback from professionals. I'm actually surprised as getting
Speaker 1: as high as it is, knowing that most of the
Speaker 1: people I'm talking to like Houston as an underdog and
Speaker 1: we're just waiting for it to get to that number.
Speaker 1: So the fact that it's still going up, what is
Speaker 1: that saying to me?
Speaker 2: Right now?
Speaker 3: What do you mean the some pro promo pro money's
Speaker 3: in this Jaguars side. I know well that you know
Speaker 3: it's okay.
Speaker 2: It's a little bit nerve wracking.
Speaker 1: I like it when we're all when we're all aligned,
Speaker 1: when everyone's together, it's like a group sweat.
Speaker 2: New England at Tampa Bay.
Speaker 3: There we go, finally some good games.
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is a two and a half point favorite.
Speaker 1: This was Chad's choice. I got to tell you, I'm
Speaker 1: a bit disappointed that it hasn't moved even a half
Speaker 1: point to three. It's especially concerning because while the tickets
Speaker 1: are on the box, even more money is on the Bucks,
Speaker 1: and so that tells me that there is some wise
Speaker 1: guy I love for Tampa Bay despite what we talked
Speaker 1: about in sharp calls, and I kind of don't get it.
Speaker 1: Like the Bucks have had extra rest, which means Baker
Speaker 1: is hopefully cured of some of the ills that ailed him.
Speaker 1: We don't know about Bucky Irving. We know that their
Speaker 1: offensive aligned could be improved. We know there's going to
Speaker 1: be a lot of passing in this game. Fine, but
Speaker 1: I like the coaching matchup. I like the Bucks at home.
Speaker 1: I like the Bucks coming off rest. I like fading
Speaker 1: the Patriots when they're finally playing a competitive team on
Speaker 1: the road, a more challenging team. Give me the other
Speaker 1: side here, unless we're both aligned and the Bucks are
Speaker 1: going to be the ones that we love.
Speaker 3: Ye alone too. I'm just people be cautious here.
Speaker 4: It actually has said three a couple of times this week,
Speaker 4: and it's been bed away very quickly. So there is
Speaker 4: some very smart money that's resisting this at three. So
Speaker 4: it's letting you know that professionals are betting that this
Speaker 4: will be a close game, where me and you are
Speaker 4: betting that this won't be honestly, because we're taking two
Speaker 4: and a half here. We know the deal with Baker,
Speaker 4: right Like, he wins close games, usually by a field
Speaker 4: goal at two and a half.
Speaker 3: Again, like, I'm like you, I can't believe we're getting
Speaker 3: away with this.
Speaker 4: It feels like a very very nice number with a
Speaker 4: quarterback that tends to play close games under.
Speaker 3: A field goal.
Speaker 4: So I get where the pros are coming from. I
Speaker 4: get their position on this New England team. They've been
Speaker 4: riding them a lot this season, they've been paying them out.
Speaker 4: This is another true test spot for New England, right, Like,
Speaker 4: this is a game where I think we're on alignment,
Speaker 4: Like they should get rolled here.
Speaker 3: A lot of questions.
Speaker 4: About the health this Bucks team, Like Chad said, we
Speaker 4: don't know you have Bucky Irvin's back. Chris Godwin still
Speaker 4: hasn't practiced yet this week. Those are two huge pieces
Speaker 4: to all pros to that offense that they need in
Speaker 4: this game. So I'm hoping they come back and when
Speaker 4: they get cleared, the number does move.
Speaker 3: Maybe that's what's holding up the lot line moving here.
Speaker 4: But yeah, just breaking this one down even you know,
Speaker 4: not just gonna give Will Campbell too hard of a
Speaker 4: time last week because you're going to again smiles Garrett
Speaker 4: or two weeks ago. And then he kind of got
Speaker 4: embarrassed last week against Atlanta, like Atlanta's line got a
Speaker 4: ton of pressure against his doingland front. You expect the
Speaker 4: Bucks defense and the blitz scheme they run, you know,
Speaker 4: should get pressure against Drake Man. We've seen him kind
Speaker 4: of that's the only thing that really struggles with when
Speaker 4: he can't do what he's so great at, which is
Speaker 4: getting outside the pocket and uses like as running.
Speaker 3: For ten yards.
Speaker 4: If you keep him contained, bottle him up, he'll struggle.
Speaker 4: And we know that's what Todd Bowles likes to do.
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm an ertzk I'm a huge hurts guy.
Speaker 4: Every time hers struggles against this Bulls defense. It's because
Speaker 4: he bottles over the five in the front. So I'm
Speaker 4: with you, Chad. It's we'll see Sunday. Maybe I can,
Speaker 4: I'll get more info and maybe I guy talk this
Speaker 4: out of it. But as we say to it right now,
Speaker 4: I bet heavily into the bucks. I love the Bucks.
Speaker 4: I think it's a great number. And I think this
Speaker 4: Patriots team is just like last week, a little overvalued,
Speaker 4: and I think they're are valued here. There's probably should
Speaker 4: be three and a half. It's two and a half.
Speaker 4: Come on, we can't avoid this one.
Speaker 1: It's too good Tampa Bay Box. They're going to be
Speaker 1: in the final five. It's going to be hard to
Speaker 1: keep them out.
Speaker 4: That's oh my god. We'll see what I talked about
Speaker 4: this weekend. Because I'm like, if I have a really
Speaker 4: smart group being like day, this is a pay this
Speaker 4: is a Patriot spot. You guys got to avoid this one. Okay,
Speaker 4: maybe I can talk to it, but I'm so bet
Speaker 4: into it, so are you. I'm with you.
Speaker 3: I just cannot I can't see it not being one
Speaker 3: of our five.
Speaker 2: Simon.
Speaker 1: You and I are the really smart group. That's the ballgame.
Speaker 1: You and I are the smart group. They should be
Speaker 1: worried about us. If they're betting the Patriots, they should
Speaker 1: be like, oh shit, Chad and Simon. There was Chad
Speaker 1: choice this week and Simon is bet into it. Like
Speaker 1: we got to rethink that's how it should go here.
Speaker 4: But you know the issue, it's us, there's public, the pros, everybody,
Speaker 4: all of us are on Tampa. I've only heard a
Speaker 4: couple of really smart guys, and like you said, this
Speaker 4: number is hitting so much resistance at three.
Speaker 3: I'm just making sure we're.
Speaker 4: Not missing something here because it's interesting, like you said,
Speaker 4: this has not gone to three.
Speaker 3: I thought this would for sure be three by Thursday.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm actually a little shocked myself, all that, all
Speaker 1: that alphatak aside, I'm a little shocked myself. You know what,
Speaker 1: I'm not shocked about that we're talking about Arizona as
Speaker 1: a six and a half point underdog at Seattle, and
Speaker 1: that we are going to make the Arizona Cardinals as
Speaker 1: six and a half point underdogs.
Speaker 2: Our brass balls better the week.
Speaker 3: You know what it takes, It takes brass balls.
Speaker 2: We got what we wanted.
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett is starting and in what has to be
Speaker 1: the ballsiest. I feel like we're doing this in honor
Speaker 1: of Jonathan Gannon, because Jonathan Gannon, in three different press
Speaker 1: conferences over the past few days, has basically said they're
Speaker 1: benching Kyler Murray. At first, he said they were doing
Speaker 1: this because Jacoby Brissett was continuing to perform well and
Speaker 1: there was also issues with Kyler Murray in.
Speaker 2: The health bucket.
Speaker 1: And then he said, we're doing it because Jacoby Brissett
Speaker 1: is playing well and it's better for the offense to
Speaker 1: be able to plan with consistency over the course of
Speaker 1: the week. They have since put Kyler Murray on ir
Speaker 1: to quote be able to focus on his rehab, which
Speaker 1: leads to the question what has he been doing. He
Speaker 1: hasn't played in a month. Is he going to focus
Speaker 1: harder over the next four weeks? Like everything about this
Speaker 1: and this was really telling, The Arizona Republic wrote, for
Speaker 1: the first time in seven years, Kyler Murray is not
Speaker 1: the starting quarterback of the Arizona Cardinals. The under lying
Speaker 1: meaning there is that Jacoby Brissett is the number one
Speaker 1: QB and Kyler Murray has been benched. And you can
Speaker 1: read into it any way you want about him going
Speaker 1: on IR. That could just be all right, We're going
Speaker 1: to take some of the pressure off of this conversation.
Speaker 1: But before he went on IR, the coach had basically said,
Speaker 1: Brissett is going to give us the best chance.
Speaker 2: We're going with Brissett. That's interesting to me.
Speaker 1: Now the question becomes are we stepping in it with
Speaker 1: the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: Because is it?
Speaker 1: Does it become too public to go with a dog
Speaker 1: that just came off a big win with a quarterback
Speaker 1: we know has been streaking after winning on Monday night.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have some good stats to go against that,
Speaker 4: and I will say that Kylier' stuff. I was taken
Speaker 4: back by it. I can't believe they went this route,
Speaker 4: but it makes sense because what we talked about how
Speaker 4: much better the team has looked so much better with
Speaker 4: Brisett running the offense, and the fact that if you
Speaker 4: do put him in the spot right, put him on
Speaker 4: IR maybe does save a little face and saves a
Speaker 4: little bit of trade value for you for trying to
Speaker 4: get rid of him in the offseason. And I think
Speaker 4: anybody knows, even Arizona fans, they saw this week Kyler
Speaker 4: was practicing like he was running around out there. He
Speaker 4: was good enough to take reps as if he was
Speaker 4: going to play last week.
Speaker 3: He clearly not didn't have some type of stepback unless
Speaker 3: we missed it right.
Speaker 4: They know more than we do. It's the team inside
Speaker 4: the building. But yeah, this is pretty shocking turn of event.
Speaker 4: I saw Kyler Murray. I believe he's twenty eight years old.
Speaker 4: Still not too late.
Speaker 3: Brother, Go back to MLB, Go get them, see if
Speaker 3: you can make a career out of it. It's crazy.
Speaker 4: He's one of the greatest athletes ever to come out
Speaker 4: of high school and just shows how football it's so mental.
Speaker 4: And he never, to me ever got that aspect down.
Speaker 4: Was never right mentally all the time in the world.
Speaker 4: I mean, I will always remember that play against the Raiders.
Speaker 4: I think it was a two point conversion. He ran
Speaker 4: around the backfield for about twenty seconds and I think
Speaker 4: it was like a total of like eighty yards. He scrampled, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 4: and put it right back in the end for the
Speaker 4: two pointers. So brutal, brutal, brual end to that saga.
Speaker 4: But for this game, let's just look at Okay, like
Speaker 4: Chad said, isn't this a bad spot.
Speaker 3: It's a team that won outright, on the road as
Speaker 3: a dog on Monday night.
Speaker 4: It's actually not terrible statistically, and the next game is
Speaker 4: an underdog. They're nine and seven straight up, ten and
Speaker 4: six against the spread since two thousand, it's not terrible.
Speaker 4: So like, okay, we got a little something there. Now,
Speaker 4: this one really jumped out to me. Seahawks and this Cardinals.
Speaker 4: I talked about divisional matchups. This is crazy chat and
Speaker 4: very bizarre. Again, it doesn't matter because I guess these
Speaker 4: two quarterbacks weren't even know all these teams when all
Speaker 4: this one down. But since twenty twenty twenty two, Seahawks
Speaker 4: eight and oh straight up seven to one against the
Speaker 4: spread against this Cardinals team, they've just owned them in
Speaker 4: this division, which again we say the time that that
Speaker 4: does happen. But I was like, okay, let me find
Speaker 4: some good Cardinal stats, because that's the side we want
Speaker 4: to be on.
Speaker 3: It's a lot of Seahawks love here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's find some some bias here. Let's find a
Speaker 1: way to make a start.
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, well, just because it feels like this is
Speaker 4: a great number for the Cardinal team.
Speaker 3: Because I let's let's fit.
Speaker 2: Some Let's find some stats that fit our narrative and
Speaker 2: what we want to do.
Speaker 3: Every week, they've been undervalued.
Speaker 4: So they lost to Tennessee as a seven and a
Speaker 4: half point favorite with Kyler. The next week they were
Speaker 4: at the Colts, he was an eight and a half
Speaker 4: point dog. What they lose by four or five points
Speaker 4: in that game. The following week they are seven point
Speaker 4: doll to Green Bay at home. They lose that game
Speaker 4: by four points, and then we just saw with Dabas
Speaker 4: there were three and a half points. So to me,
Speaker 4: the book keeps Undervaluabersett. That's why it's been hitting. So
Speaker 4: I was like, Okay, what kind of numbers do we
Speaker 4: have here for teams making a trip out to Seattle
Speaker 4: on a short week, which I think that favors the
Speaker 4: type of quarterback per set is a veteran quarterback that
Speaker 4: just seems like he's totally rhythm with this offense. This
Speaker 4: is pretty wild since twenty twenty one teams in this
Speaker 4: exact spot heading to Seattle on a short week there's
Speaker 4: seven and one straight up and against the spread. So
Speaker 4: we've talked about the lost art of this Seattle home
Speaker 4: field advantage, right like we all think back to the
Speaker 4: Legion of Doom, but these last couple of years has
Speaker 4: not been so. And then even this year, I've already
Speaker 4: gave up those stats. They lost to the forty Anders
Speaker 4: and week went at home, Okay, we threw that one out.
Speaker 4: Their defense gave up thirty eight points to thirty five
Speaker 4: points to Baker at home against Tampa, like it's just
Speaker 4: night and day. There's road splits are insane, how much
Speaker 4: dominant their defenses and offenses on the road. So I
Speaker 4: just like this one on a cell point for the
Speaker 4: Seattle team. So me and Chad loves to plus six
Speaker 4: and a half people, I think this will keep moving
Speaker 4: as well.
Speaker 3: Like I said the book, the publics they keep.
Speaker 4: Undervaluing per set, so I can easily set in this
Speaker 4: get up to seven. Just like last week we talked,
Speaker 4: I like the Cardinals there plus two and a half.
Speaker 4: I said, if you're if you're a patient, this will
Speaker 4: get the three against Dallas, I got up to three
Speaker 4: and a half. Because again people just do not believe
Speaker 4: in Brussette. So look at the splits right now. Eighty
Speaker 4: percent of the money, eighty percent of the bets right
Speaker 4: now are on Seattle. So I just I think.
Speaker 3: We'll get to seven. We're giving it out right now.
Speaker 4: It's six and a half a hard rock I love
Speaker 4: this bet, I love this spot, and yeah, it's always
Speaker 4: a little scary ben again to arguably the best team,
Speaker 4: hottest team in football right now, which Seattle is. But
Speaker 4: we're just playing the market, playing the number, and we
Speaker 4: think this team is overvalued right now.
Speaker 1: I would definitely say wait on the seven. I think
Speaker 1: it's gonna get there.
Speaker 2: This one.
Speaker 1: Unlike the other ones that we've talked about, this one
Speaker 1: feels like it's it's trending in that way. There doesn't
Speaker 1: seem to be much resistance from the bookmakers, and maybe
Speaker 1: they know they'll get it when it gets to seven.
Speaker 1: So I'm holding off. I haven't bet it yet. I
Speaker 1: love it. If I'm not gonna get the six and
Speaker 1: a half, if I'm not gonna get the seven, I'll
Speaker 1: bet the six and a half.
Speaker 2: But I'm definitely waiting on the.
Speaker 4: Second to get There's two sevens right now in Jersey,
Speaker 4: so there's gonna be sevens are gonna start popping eventually.
Speaker 1: All right, so let's get that seven, all right? Quick
Speaker 1: quick quick word.
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Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Rams are bid are visiting the San
Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers.
Speaker 2: The line right now is four.
Speaker 1: On Sunday, it was three on Tuesday, it was three
Speaker 1: and a half. It's four at hard Rock, Honestly, it's
Speaker 1: four and a half almost everywhere else, like the book
Speaker 1: makers are telling us screw off, go ahead and bet
Speaker 1: the Niners.
Speaker 2: We dare you.
Speaker 1: What's interesting to me is I am seeing a much
Speaker 1: closer split on the betting percentages meaning the number of
Speaker 1: tickets between each side, than I am on the money,
Speaker 1: which is heavily in favor of the Rams. You know,
Speaker 1: you said in sharp calls, whise guys have come in
Speaker 1: on the Rams. My question is, was that all at
Speaker 1: three and people are ignoring it at four? Do people
Speaker 1: like the Niners at four and a half. What's our
Speaker 1: opportunity here? Because I got an opinion and it makes
Speaker 1: me scared.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was a little as it in here because
Speaker 3: we talked.
Speaker 4: I took a position on the Rams minus three, and
Speaker 4: I said, once I got a three and a half,
Speaker 4: I want to been the.
Speaker 3: Four nine ers.
Speaker 4: And I was completely wrong, obviously missed it. Like you said,
Speaker 4: it's been met up now to four to four and
Speaker 4: a half. It is more of a mac Jones kind
Speaker 4: of thing where maybe the line reflects that party will
Speaker 4: be out another week. And this is kind of settling
Speaker 4: into what a mac Jones line is, which is four
Speaker 4: four and a half, which seems fair to me. And
Speaker 4: you know when you want to dive into this game,
Speaker 4: I think it's pretty simple. You just dive into head coaches, right,
Speaker 4: because the quarterbacks keep changing, the pieces keep changing. But
Speaker 4: when you really get to the basis of it, it's
Speaker 4: two of the best offensive mines in all football going
Speaker 4: incase each other. And it does make a difference where
Speaker 4: you know which one is the underdog, and that tends
Speaker 4: to be the one I usually take my position on,
Speaker 4: So just dive in this matchup. I believe this is
Speaker 4: the eighteenth time these two guys have met up and
Speaker 4: matched in this type of game. Shanean obviously he's done
Speaker 4: best in this matchup. He's eleven and seven against the
Speaker 4: spread his exact games. But what I thought it was
Speaker 4: so interesting was diving into what is mcveighman as a favorite,
Speaker 4: because that, to me, isn't that terrible eleven and seven.
Speaker 4: I thought it was honestly more because it seems like
Speaker 4: Shanneon owns them so as a favorite with Stafford McVeigh
Speaker 4: three and six against the spread and straight up against Shanahan,
Speaker 4: and that's including this year where they lost outright at
Speaker 4: home as an eight point favorite against McVeigh on that
Speaker 4: Thursday night game, we talk all the time Thursday Night
Speaker 4: are weird games like stuff like that can just happen.
Speaker 4: But it's even more so worrying that this game is
Speaker 4: on the road now and McVeigh on the road against
Speaker 4: Shannan as a favorite. He's one in three straight up
Speaker 4: and against the spread at this exact spot. So the
Speaker 4: numbers keep telling you you don't want to go with
Speaker 4: McVeigh here, and then you dive into even further when
Speaker 4: he's on the road straight up in his career against
Speaker 4: you know, Shanahan. This is the last eight times they've
Speaker 4: played this exact game. He's won in seven McVeigh. So
Speaker 4: you just struggled mightily against Shannan on the road in
Speaker 4: these type of games. And you could say, well, that's
Speaker 4: kind of flicky because look at all the different quarterbacks
Speaker 4: through all the years. And that's my whole point though,
Speaker 4: it's the coaches stay the same, the schemes stay the same.
Speaker 4: So I I liked this a lot for this forty
Speaker 4: nine ers team, And the only hesitation I have is
Speaker 4: instead I gave out that I want to keep hammering
Speaker 4: home about this team. They cannot handle success, they can't
Speaker 4: handle winning. I remember two weeks ago where I said
Speaker 4: you had to bet Houston against the forty nine and
Speaker 4: one of those stupid stats I gave up that's still held.
Speaker 3: True since Christmas of twenty twenty three.
Speaker 4: This is from our guy Evan forty nine ers one
Speaker 4: in fourteen against the spread after a straight up win,
Speaker 4: one in fourteen. So it's like this insane pattern. Even
Speaker 4: more so, they're oh and three straight up after a
Speaker 4: win when they're a dog in the next game. So
Speaker 4: they're oh and three against the spread and straight up
Speaker 4: as a dog in this exact spot since Christmas. And
Speaker 4: this is just a weird thing where whatever it is,
Speaker 4: this team doesn't handle the wins and they get over
Speaker 4: valued by the books and they have a letdown. So
Speaker 4: that to me might be the reason these pros are
Speaker 4: coming on this Rams team. The trends point to it.
Speaker 4: It's like every time this fourgners team has a big win,
Speaker 4: especially on the road, they've come home they've laid total eggs.
Speaker 4: And that's happened a couple of times already this season.
Speaker 4: So I really do like the Niners here getting im
Speaker 4: probably talking myself off of it, but I'm not going
Speaker 4: to force it in at four. I won't take it,
Speaker 4: but at four and a half, I'm taking forty nine
Speaker 4: ers there once. Once you get across that key number
Speaker 4: a four and a half, I have to take it,
Speaker 4: especially where all those trends show mc veigh's struggles on
Speaker 4: the road against Shanahan and this exact spot as a favorite.
Speaker 4: When people are under you, under betting or not believing
Speaker 4: the Niners team, they tend to shine in these exact games.
Speaker 1: Listen to me, Listen, don't talk yourself out of it.
Speaker 1: The Niners are the right side here, last fourteen games
Speaker 1: in this rivalry, the favorite one to thirteen.
Speaker 2: Against the spread. Wow, the Niners are the side.
Speaker 1: We knew it on Tuesday. It's to me, the line
Speaker 1: is moving not because of the trendsit. It's moving because
Speaker 1: of the Niners defense. They're just so banged up and
Speaker 1: they're moving. It's moving because of the Rams rush defense,
Speaker 1: which has really become a lead. And if you're looking
Speaker 1: at this game schematically, the best opportunity that the Niners
Speaker 1: have is to get the ball into McCaffrey's hands thirty
Speaker 1: five times, as they've been doing. But Matt Jones has
Speaker 1: been showing up and he's doing exactly what Kyle Shanahan needs.
Speaker 2: Him to do.
Speaker 1: The number is way too big. It just it shouldn't
Speaker 1: be four and a half points. And so that's the
Speaker 1: side simon. You and I we have confidence niners. Niners
Speaker 1: are the side no fear. I don't care what anyone
Speaker 1: else is saying. Here's one of them that I do
Speaker 1: have some concerns. This one is at two and a half.
Speaker 1: It's the Green Bay Packers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. It's
Speaker 1: actually it was a two and a half, it's moved
Speaker 1: down a bit to two. You and I both talked
Speaker 1: about it on Sunday at two and a half. You
Speaker 1: said you were hearing a lot of rumblings about the
Speaker 1: Eagles at two. I don't know if anyone's going to
Speaker 1: get to watch this game because it's a Monday night game,
Speaker 1: and who knows where the YouTube TV ESPN standoff is
Speaker 1: going to end.
Speaker 2: But like shutdowns, could this be.
Speaker 1: The moment when it's two massive fan bases that are,
Speaker 1: you know, bringing the cable giant and the streaming TV
Speaker 1: giant to its knees? Man Tricky, I don't think you
Speaker 1: mentioned the Eagles and sharp calls, but I'm still going
Speaker 1: to go with the Packers.
Speaker 3: I am too.
Speaker 4: I didn't mention it much because it is a little split,
Speaker 4: but I would say, obviously most pros are on Green Bay.
Speaker 4: But when I dove back into why my model had
Speaker 4: this so off, like I said, I think I had
Speaker 4: it at green Bay minus one. Maybe we're undervaluing Tucker
Speaker 4: Craft and what he means this Green Bay team and
Speaker 4: how big of a loss that is for this offense.
Speaker 4: But I can't get over how great of a spot
Speaker 4: this is for the Packers. So maybe I'll have a
Speaker 4: stronger opinion comes today morning, I can give talk more
Speaker 4: about There's this other games I've bet more into.
Speaker 3: I just don't know what to do with this one.
Speaker 4: It's another game where it might be in the twenties,
Speaker 4: might be a little snowy on Monday night.
Speaker 3: This could be affected by the weather.
Speaker 4: And you know, if there's no Golden the Rooki receiver,
Speaker 4: and now there's no Tucker Craft, it's got to be
Speaker 4: an issue, right, Like a passing attack needs its weapons,
Speaker 4: especially the team like Green Bay with the it's just
Speaker 4: an unnamed receiving core. Right, it's a rotation of guys.
Speaker 4: Now you're taking away the number one tight end and
Speaker 4: the number two receiver. That's got to effect jord Love
Speaker 4: at some aspects. So yeah, for me, I'm still betting
Speaker 4: at Green Bay, especially at minus two, but I don't
Speaker 4: feel as strongly as I did about it on Sunday
Speaker 4: night or let alone on Tuesday.
Speaker 2: I don't feel as strongly about it either.
Speaker 1: I think there's been a lot of movement this week
Speaker 1: that has made me feel better about games like the
Speaker 1: nine Ers. I'm still bought into the box, the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: the Jets are really interesting to me. I know we
Speaker 1: like the Broncos too, so I do think we're starting
Speaker 1: to find consensus on a bunch of games.
Speaker 3: I don't know how you've missed Miami.
Speaker 1: On Tuesday, we talked about liking Miami and it being
Speaker 1: the side.
Speaker 4: Yeah it that's how you should know. It's the right
Speaker 4: that's the right bet for us and probably should.
Speaker 3: Be one of our five comes Sunday. All right, let
Speaker 3: me let me hit you some numbers.
Speaker 2: Talk me into it. Hold on here, but talk me
Speaker 2: into it.
Speaker 1: Give me the numbers, but then tell me your hypothesis
Speaker 1: for the game.
Speaker 4: I just love this running matchup. I think against his
Speaker 4: Bill's defense favors it's Miami team a lot of ways.
Speaker 3: And it's also a unique spot.
Speaker 4: Whether it's Tua at home with a big number, who
Speaker 4: always covers for us in this exact spot, except.
Speaker 2: Against the Ravens Thursday night, like a weekd that.
Speaker 4: Was different though that wasn't a midday in the sun
Speaker 4: type of game. That was a primetime late game. Look,
Speaker 4: we got burned by that one, no doubt. I'm trying
Speaker 4: not to.
Speaker 3: Let that affect us in this game. Here, I'll hit
Speaker 3: you with the numbers real quick.
Speaker 2: All right, hit me with the numbers, Josh.
Speaker 3: All, let's start with him, the Goat.
Speaker 4: We all know how great he is, but on the
Speaker 4: road is more than a touchdown favorite.
Speaker 3: I think we could both agree.
Speaker 4: It feels like he's not that great, And when you
Speaker 4: dive into the numbers, it proves out he's two and
Speaker 4: six against the Spring in his career on the road
Speaker 4: as a seven a half point favorite or more.
Speaker 3: Okay, not the biggest deal. All right, Well, let's dive
Speaker 3: into some more.
Speaker 4: Dolphins got blown out last week, right, they were a
Speaker 4: dog of seven points or more. They lost by twenty
Speaker 4: points or more last week in this exact spot. Those
Speaker 4: type of teams and a bounce back spot fifteen and
Speaker 4: seven against the spread. So look, we already knew it's
Speaker 4: gonna be a by low on this Dolphins team because
Speaker 4: they just got embarrassed and blown out.
Speaker 1: But every week, every week is by low on the Dolphins.
Speaker 4: Now, I mean we high last week after they blew
Speaker 4: out Atlanta. That was again that was on us. We
Speaker 4: should that we misread that one two of this week,
Speaker 4: he just got embarrassed. This is his back to back,
Speaker 4: So his second home stand game, which you know we
Speaker 4: always talk we love to at home or indoors in
Speaker 4: controlled environments, to a at home in this exact spot,
Speaker 4: So his second straight home game in his career. He's
Speaker 4: ten and two straight up, nine and three against the spread.
Speaker 4: Oh but Chad, what's you like as an underdog in
Speaker 4: this exact spot?
Speaker 2: Oh, Tony Simon three and oh.
Speaker 4: Straight up and against the spread, and this exact spot
Speaker 4: to at home and the back to back game as
Speaker 4: an underdog. So I kept diving into it, and it's like,
Speaker 4: is there more stats I can pull from the good
Speaker 4: chat to try to flip on this one? I got
Speaker 4: another one for you to at home twenty six and
Speaker 4: eleven straight up, and when they lose and they have
Speaker 4: a following game again at home. He is three and
Speaker 4: oh straight up and against the spread, covering those games
Speaker 4: by fifteen points per game. That's and insanes that he
Speaker 4: basically if he gets embarrassed or lose at home, he's
Speaker 4: dominating that second.
Speaker 3: Game at home.
Speaker 4: And we talked, we just we've been profitable betting to
Speaker 4: it at home in that hot sun whatever it is,
Speaker 4: all the new shoe and the naonce it's true, like
Speaker 4: teams get burned out, they wear on. Tool always comes
Speaker 4: back and covers these big spreads in the second half
Speaker 4: at him. So I just wanted to bring that game
Speaker 4: up as a game you're going to need to take
Speaker 4: a little closer look at I'm betting into it. I
Speaker 4: don't feel great about slamming the table about Tua and
Speaker 4: this Miami team, but this is a great matchup for
Speaker 4: their offense, and I think defensively as great as Josh
Speaker 4: Allen is and that offense is Cook is banged up.
Speaker 4: He's been on the injury report this week and he's
Speaker 4: not been practicing. I think I'll be interesting if their
Speaker 4: number one running back is Ray Davis. Even though Miami
Speaker 4: doesn't have a good front, that's a huge deal. Cook
Speaker 4: is like a top five, top ten running back of
Speaker 4: football right now. So that's another reason I think this
Speaker 4: numbers dropped a little bit. Like again, there's no public
Speaker 4: or professional level. I've honestly found this Miami team. It's
Speaker 4: just us, buddy, and that makes me love it even more.
Speaker 4: Everyone's left them for dead. And this the exact spot
Speaker 4: we got to be buying this Miami Dolphins team. I
Speaker 4: know we need to get out of here. I'll be
Speaker 4: quick on the next one Detroit. The pros are all
Speaker 4: over this Washingt team. This number has been bet down
Speaker 4: now to seven and a half.
Speaker 3: I get it.
Speaker 4: I'm missing something. This might be a huge blind spot
Speaker 4: once again. But I have to trust Campbell, just like
Speaker 4: I did last week, Campbell and Golf on these spots.
Speaker 3: I'm so freaking proudy man. That's a way to show up.
Speaker 3: You talk about pressure.
Speaker 2: We living pressure.
Speaker 3: That's what we freaking thrive.
Speaker 2: You did it again. You always find a way to win.
Speaker 2: We're testing for this.
Speaker 3: Just stay the course.
Speaker 4: I've been betting it for so long, We've been making
Speaker 4: money off for so long.
Speaker 3: What do we do here?
Speaker 4: We're trying to go against our instinct here, and I
Speaker 4: know it's the very public side. It's probably the most
Speaker 4: public side of the week. So maybe that's how we
Speaker 4: all avoid it. It's so public, maybe we can tuck
Speaker 4: ourselves out of it. But Golf and Campbell after a
Speaker 4: straight up loss twenty one to eight against the spread,
Speaker 4: like it's just what they do. They are on a
Speaker 4: twelve game covering streak after losing the previous game right now,
Speaker 4: So every time they've lost, they've come back and covered
Speaker 4: the flying game for twelve straight times. So I just
Speaker 4: wanted to bringing them up real quick. I know that
Speaker 4: I'm gonna get a ton of shit from a lot
Speaker 4: of pros this upcoming week at the book. You know,
Speaker 4: I'm on this public side once again because again they're
Speaker 4: taking a victory lap in the Vikings. They were totally right,
Speaker 4: tertoughly terrible read by me.
Speaker 1: I do worry They've got a lot of developing injuries
Speaker 1: in their offense, specifically in the offensive line that is
Speaker 1: impacting their ability to block and.
Speaker 2: Their rush game. And I talked about this on Tuesday.
Speaker 2: I love Detroit.
Speaker 1: Last week too, they were Chad's choice as a big
Speaker 1: number against the Vikings because I had no faith in
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy and I had all the faith in the
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions ability to run the ball against Minnesota Vikings
Speaker 1: rush defense that hasn't been playing well this year. The
Speaker 1: problem is, and I noted this on Tuesday, what we
Speaker 1: saw on Sunday was a lack of success rate that
Speaker 1: allows them to get to a position on third down
Speaker 1: where they can execute. You could say that they will
Speaker 1: do better against the Commanders in this spot because their
Speaker 1: defense is just terrible. But the line's also been having
Speaker 1: offensive line issues and some injuries on that offensive line.
Speaker 1: So I think that has as much do with sort
Speaker 1: of this line moving from what was it eight and
Speaker 1: a half to eight down to seven and a half
Speaker 1: as it does with fading the Lions overall because of
Speaker 1: what happened last week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the biggest thing winning back Detrait this year. It's
Speaker 4: very simple when you dive into numbers. They are at
Speaker 4: twenty fifth and third down conversion rate and their eighteenth
Speaker 4: and first downs but can't convert.
Speaker 3: They can't, but this is the definition.
Speaker 4: But get right where they're playing a defense at in
Speaker 4: red zone efficency, they're twenty seventh in the league. They
Speaker 4: are giving up their thirtieth in yards per play defensively,
Speaker 4: they are their twenty ninth and giving up the most
Speaker 4: passing yards in the league, and they're twenty third against
Speaker 4: the rush. So this is it for Detroit. They can't
Speaker 4: get right here. Like I said, maybe you're right, maybe
Speaker 4: I'll swear them off for good.
Speaker 3: And as honest as I can, I don't know.
Speaker 4: I really don't even know how to respond to that,
Speaker 4: you know, I mean, I'm shocked by.
Speaker 2: That Steelers visiting their Chargers.
Speaker 1: The game was three and a half on Sunday, it's
Speaker 1: moved down to three. We liked it a lot at
Speaker 1: three and a half. You said you're hearing stuff from
Speaker 1: the wise guys on the Chargers, which is surprising to
Speaker 1: me because Joe Alt is out and it's a game
Speaker 1: in LA where the Steelers travel, and it's going to
Speaker 1: feel like you're, you know.
Speaker 2: Back at the old three Rivers. When you're playing you not.
Speaker 3: Get it, especially when it's the plus three. I just
Speaker 3: do not get this Chargers love.
Speaker 4: So it's another game I'm trying to be careful on
Speaker 4: because it does feel way too easy, like we're getting
Speaker 4: a dog here against a team that should not be
Speaker 4: favored against this defensive front, and you know, one takeaway
Speaker 4: could be this defense played over seventy snaps against that
Speaker 4: cold Steam last week, and that's not a pushover Colts team.
Speaker 4: That's a big, physical, really tough Colts team that that
Speaker 4: could affect this Pittsburgh defense in But it's already been
Speaker 4: a year of very up and down play, right.
Speaker 3: We joked about it.
Speaker 4: They need five turnovers per game to steal these type
Speaker 4: of games. So that's the weird here. But the one
Speaker 4: that really jumped out to me about a couple of
Speaker 4: people send me this stat about just Herbert and how
Speaker 4: great he's been in these night games, which was pretty shocking,
Speaker 4: just because it feels like before Harwall got there, they
Speaker 4: were just so terrible, this Chargers team, and they just
Speaker 4: did have no coaching. But he's actually in a five
Speaker 4: game ATS streak winning night games. I think the only
Speaker 4: one I could pop in my head was that Chiefs
Speaker 4: game to start the year. I know that was a
Speaker 4: night game for a fact, when they played down in Brazil.
Speaker 4: In his career, Herbert sixteen and nine against the spread,
Speaker 4: covering by three and a half points per game. And
Speaker 4: this is exact night games type of game. So there's
Speaker 4: a lot to like them here. As a favorite. He's
Speaker 4: ten and three straight up in these type of games.
Speaker 4: I just wanted to bring it up just because we're
Speaker 4: just we're so in love with the Steelers. I want
Speaker 4: to talk about the other side, why people might like
Speaker 4: the Chargers and Herbert to bounce back.
Speaker 3: But I'm with Chad.
Speaker 4: I just can't get to the fact that losing Joe
Speaker 4: Alt this this offensive front, him having no time. They
Speaker 4: can't set up a run game either, because they can't
Speaker 4: run block either. It's just it just feels so negative
Speaker 4: for the Chargers team. On the flip side, I just
Speaker 4: love Pittsburgh, So maybe again I can avoid it because
Speaker 4: I'm lying to myself saying, well, Pittsburgh's defense seventy snaps now,
Speaker 4: short week on the road. That's a tough spot to
Speaker 4: put this defense is. But just man, what am I
Speaker 4: grabbing here with this Chargers team. Other than Herbert, It
Speaker 4: just feels like a lost bet.
Speaker 1: Here's what if I had to predict how we're narrowing
Speaker 1: it down on Sunday. I think we're talking about San Francisco.
Speaker 1: I think we're talking about Arizona. I think we're talking
Speaker 1: about Houston. I think we will have talked about Denver.
Speaker 1: I think the Jets will be in the conversation. I
Speaker 1: know Miami is going to be in the conversation because
Speaker 1: I already could lean that way and you're feeling heavily,
Speaker 1: you're feeling strongly about it. So and maybe green Bay,
Speaker 1: well we'll have to have a conversation. I don't think
Speaker 1: Detroit's gonna make it I don't know if the Steelers
Speaker 1: will make it either. Maybe that's a mistake and we'll
Speaker 1: talk it out on Sunday. But those feel like the
Speaker 1: games to me again, Denver, which we both love Tonight
Speaker 1: Thursday night, the Jets plus two and a half, the
Speaker 1: Cardinals plus six and a half, which is our brass balls,
Speaker 1: the Niners plus four and a half, Miami plus nine
Speaker 1: and a half feel like the leading contender.
Speaker 2: Simon, give me your biggest bets.
Speaker 3: Pull up those pants and be a man. Obviously, people
Speaker 3: know love Denver. Tonight.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna have a lot of money tied to them Dolphins,
Speaker 4: but pretty big into bucks, but pretty big into and
Speaker 4: you know a lot of these gamers waiting positions like
Speaker 4: forty nine ers probably going to pen as a bigger
Speaker 4: bet seeing with the Cardinals just waiting to get better
Speaker 4: numbers on those games.
Speaker 1: Last week underdog parlay and Favorites parlay. We are leaning
Speaker 1: into favorites so much more. We ended up having to
Speaker 1: do both sides of games, which we don't love doing.
Speaker 1: So Mitchell suggestion, I think your suggestion, and we'll three.
Speaker 1: Let's do three for the underdog parlay.
Speaker 4: My dog blocks your dog, Your dog.
Speaker 3: Blocks mo Dog. Jets plus one ten.
Speaker 1: I was just going to say, Jets have to be
Speaker 1: in there. Texans le see, yeah, I like that.
Speaker 2: Niners I like that all right.
Speaker 1: Underdog money line parlay Round Robin Jets, Houston, Niners. Favorites
Speaker 1: Panthers Panthers, Lions.
Speaker 3: Panthers, Lions, Ravens.
Speaker 2: Ravens for sure. We're all in on the bucks either way.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true, that's true. Bears are yeah. Ten.
Speaker 2: Let's do the Bears, Bears, Let's do the Bears.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I'd already forgotten about the.
Speaker 3: Bears survivor before we get out of here. Tough, tough week.
Speaker 4: I unfortunately to use the lines, God, I can't believe
Speaker 4: I'm doing it. Panthers, Wow, I know, my God, I
Speaker 4: gotta do it though. It's it's that kind of it's
Speaker 4: it's that year where you guys start getting into.
Speaker 3: The other teams that win each week. So I'm gonna
Speaker 3: go Panthers.
Speaker 2: All right, Sharp versus Square? We both lost last week?
Speaker 2: Would you like to go first? You you had the
Speaker 2: Chargers last week I had the Jacks.
Speaker 3: Oh, I guess I'll flip the last week.
Speaker 4: I went with a minus nine and a half road favorite.
Speaker 4: Give me Miami plus nine and a half home dog. Wow.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that. That makes me feel even more
Speaker 1: confident about putting in the contest, though, I will tell you.
Speaker 3: That that's scary.
Speaker 2: I'll go to San Francisco.
Speaker 3: Here you go. What number? Are you taking four and
Speaker 3: a half for.
Speaker 2: Four and a half and you're taking Miami plus nine
Speaker 2: and a half?
Speaker 3: Let's go right?
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, all right. This has been Sharper Square,
Speaker 2: part of the Volume podcast network.
Speaker 1: We will be back. I'm Sharper Square on YouTube on
Speaker 1: Sunday morning. As you easdrop on our intimate conversation, we
Speaker 1: will panic, make human decisions.
Speaker 2: Regret the rest of the day.
Speaker 1: We'll be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven
Speaker 1: point thirty ish pm to recap all the misery watcher Listen,
Speaker 1: I'm Sharper Square YouTube, like and subscribe. You can also
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Speaker 2: Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I love you.
Speaker 3: Hey, let's recare for