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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock That.

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Speaker 2: We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: This is the show that makes the squares sharper and

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Speaker 1: makes the wise guys pay attention.

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Speaker 2: I am Chad Milman, I am.

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Speaker 1: Joined as always buy my BFF, my companion, Mike Campadre,

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Speaker 1: my co host, Professional Better Sigmon Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Simon, Chad.

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Speaker 3: Are we doing?

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Speaker 1: I don't feel like I got English enough on that.

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Speaker 1: Heedo soymon A's beat.

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Speaker 2: There you go, dude. There is so much.

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Speaker 1: News impacting the lines since the trade deadline, and there's

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Speaker 1: also just been general massive line movement overall since we

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Speaker 1: did our show on Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: Freaking wild, absolutely freaking wild.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you've got any deep deep thoughts

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Speaker 1: on that. Let's hold them because I want to hear

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Speaker 1: what the wise guys have to say in sharp calls.

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Speaker 1: This is our Thursday, Week ten episode. We're going to

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Speaker 1: narrow down the options on the five picks we like

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Speaker 1: the best. We're going to inch our way closer. Subscribe

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Speaker 1: to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get

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Speaker 1: into this thing. Every week, you know what we do.

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Speaker 1: We are going to hear from Simon's fellow professional betters

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Speaker 1: on all the conversations we had on Tuesday, they've always

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Speaker 1: got opinions. I have no doubt they'll have a lot

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Speaker 1: of things to say about what we discussed.

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Speaker 2: Let's get too sharp, calls.

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Speaker 3: Hal answer, it's foot all.

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Speaker 2: Right, rain range, telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what you do.

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Speaker 4: Man, Yeah, let's start where you guys are on the

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Speaker 4: opposite of us, which you know I always always love

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Speaker 4: here on the other side. And the one that really

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Speaker 4: jumped out was the Chargers. Hearing a lot of love

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Speaker 4: from the pros on the Chargers, maybe we're suckers. I

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Speaker 4: just can't get over again. Plus three here. I just

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Speaker 4: that's gonna be a fun one to break down.

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Speaker 1: Some Yeah we're gonna that's the Chargers Steelers game, and yeah,

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Speaker 1: we're definitely gonna discuss that one.

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Speaker 3: So good.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, a lot of pros love the Chargers, Big Chargers,

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Speaker 4: Chargers spot. I guess let's start with the Rams as well.

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Speaker 4: A lot of pros I talked to Tuck Rams money

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Speaker 4: shocked by that one. Commanders was a big talking point

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Speaker 4: this week. I definitely remember us, or at least myself.

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Speaker 4: I like Detroit. I still do. I'm happy they're betting

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Speaker 4: it down. That's a fun one. We can break down

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Speaker 4: some more. Patriots, couldn't believe it. A lot of love

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Speaker 4: from the Patriots. I once again, I'm dug in. I like,

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Speaker 4: really like Tampa. Starting to love it even more as

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Speaker 4: I see the injury report and what guys are healthy

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Speaker 4: for this Tampa team. So pretty interesting how much love

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Speaker 4: there is for this Patriots side and the sides we

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Speaker 4: agree on. Chad, we already knew Jets that was gonna

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Speaker 4: be a pro side. Yeah, it's it's fluctuated the numbers

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Speaker 4: since the trade deadline.

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Speaker 3: That's gonna be a fun one to break down. Miami.

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Speaker 4: Tons of love from the pros. Tons of love for Houston.

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Speaker 4: I'm going against the pros here. I didn't even mention

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Speaker 4: it the Raiders. Talk to some pros that really like

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Speaker 4: that one again. Another game I'll hold steady fast and

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Speaker 4: I really like Denver in that spot and the last

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Speaker 4: one that shocked me. Tons of love for the pros

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Speaker 4: on this Bear side game that I feel like we

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Speaker 4: were kind of on the other side of it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, talk that we.

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Speaker 4: Kind of like the Giants. I'll give you some reasons

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Speaker 4: why they liked that Bear side.

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Speaker 3: If we break that game down later.

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Speaker 1: Oh, we're going to break it down because it's one

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Speaker 1: of the games that I was thinking about, and it

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Speaker 1: was in contention for brass Balls because that number has

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Speaker 1: moved quite a bit and I haven't been able to

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Speaker 1: figure out why other than professional money coming in on

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Speaker 1: the Bears in this spot. So you also mentioned another

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Speaker 1: game that I've been getting more and more nervous about,

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Speaker 1: which is The Box, because I cannot figure out how

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Speaker 1: that line hasn't moved from two and a half to

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Speaker 1: three yet. So some pushback from the Wise guys is

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Speaker 1: probably why. But first let's get to that Raiders Broncos game. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: it's our Thursday show, so a lot of people might

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Speaker 1: not hear. I might not hear the show until after

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Speaker 1: the game. You're getting some feedback from the professionals on

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Speaker 1: the Raiders' side. We both love Denver and like this

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Speaker 1: wasn't even a question. We actually were debating if Denver

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Speaker 1: was going to be Simon Says or Chat's choice because

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Speaker 1: we both liked it so much. We liked it at

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Speaker 1: eight and a half, it's now at nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what the Wise guys are seeing in

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Speaker 1: the Raiders. You can't take anything from that game against

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Speaker 1: a Jags team that lost their best pass rusher because

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Speaker 1: he tried to punch a guy in the face, and

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Speaker 1: you're still playing against a not very good defense. Brock

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Speaker 1: Bauers was wide open every game. I mean, every play.

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Speaker 1: Isn't all this stuff that Broncos can account for in

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Speaker 1: a short week in a game the Raiders went to

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Speaker 1: a full overtime and they're not a very good team.

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Speaker 2: I don't get it. I don't get it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think mister White, guys I talked to, they

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Speaker 4: just don't trust, you know, a quarter about like bow

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Speaker 4: Knicks to be this big of a favorite in a

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Speaker 4: divisional game, especially if you look at the history of Denver, right,

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Speaker 4: And this is the hardest part too, because to me,

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Speaker 4: it's a lot of it's irrelevant the history of Denver

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Speaker 4: before Champagne took over. But they have not won against

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Speaker 4: a divisional opponent in our primetime game since like twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 2: Okay, doesn't matter, doesn't matter.

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Speaker 4: That was my exact pushback. It's like, well, if you

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Speaker 4: look at those teams from those years, they were bad,

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Speaker 4: They had bad coaches, they just weren't good, and they've

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Speaker 4: been in a really competitive, tough division all throughout those years.

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Speaker 4: So that makes sense though why they'd push back because

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Speaker 4: it is technically a huge number in a divisional game in.

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Speaker 3: A short week. But I already gave it out.

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Speaker 4: I gave out that overtime stat, which to me is

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Speaker 4: just makes so much sense, and it was actually wrong.

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Speaker 3: I thought it was three and twenty three.

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Speaker 4: I forgot last year the Bears and this exact spot

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Speaker 4: actually won uncovered or covered last year against the Lions.

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Speaker 4: Remember that insanely fluky game on Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, dude, where the Lions should have been up seventy

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Speaker 1: two to nothing in the first half, and.

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Speaker 4: Then even then they're up twenty one nothing or twenty

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Speaker 4: one to three the first half, and somehow Bears came

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Speaker 4: back and covered really late. So you know, I'm not

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Speaker 4: gonna get pushed off this one. I get where they're

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Speaker 4: coming from, and I'm with you. I just think defensively, schematically,

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Speaker 4: they can take away bowers and then what are you

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Speaker 4: going to do as an offense, Like, I know they're

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Speaker 4: trying to establish a run, but it just now has

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Speaker 4: been working. Chip Kelly whatever he's going to do. It's

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Speaker 4: not been working with that run game and Gino.

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Speaker 3: I still think.

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Speaker 4: Even in that game, as good as he looked, he

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Speaker 4: still had so many horrible throws, so much questionable moving

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Speaker 4: with his feet, and it's just a really tough spot.

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Speaker 4: Offs We talked about it being on a short week

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Speaker 4: here on the road against the Denver team that you know,

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Speaker 4: we put it as one of the best teams in

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Speaker 4: all football, like we're respecting that way defensively, especially, so

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Speaker 4: I know it's a lot to swallow bow nixt year,

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Speaker 4: but I can't get away from it.

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Speaker 3: Cha.

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Speaker 4: I really like it, And I don't know, maybe we

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Speaker 4: do put in the contest multiple figure it out because

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Speaker 4: there are five games I like this week. But people

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Speaker 4: know I really love this game. I love this matchup.

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Speaker 4: First half, full game, Debra, I'm.

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Speaker 3: All over it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, same, same, same, not shame, same. Maybe we'll be shamed,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think so. This was one like coming

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Speaker 1: out of my one in four malaise. This is one

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Speaker 1: of the games that made me start to feel like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I can see it, I have clarity, I'm feeling confident,

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Speaker 1: felt good about this one.

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Speaker 3: God we need it. We cannot start the week O one.

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Speaker 1: Dude, we freaking need it, as Bob Scuccy, our old

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Speaker 1: friend Bob Scuccy like to say, we need this for

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Speaker 1: our lungs. We are underwater, all right, New York Giants

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Speaker 1: at the Chicago Bears. This line, it.

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Speaker 2: Blew up over the last forty eight hours.

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Speaker 1: It got up to four and a half. It's down

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Speaker 1: to four at hard Rock. We've talked about hard Rock.

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Speaker 1: It's a sharp book, so that gives communication of what

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Speaker 1: the wise guys think when this line got to four

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Speaker 1: and a half.

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Speaker 2: But they also love the Bears at three.

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Speaker 1: They love the Bears at three and a half, and

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Speaker 1: some pushed it up too, from four to four and

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Speaker 1: a half. I started to see the Giants and I

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Speaker 1: talked about this on Tuesday. The Bears run defense is

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Speaker 1: so bad, and I mean not their run defense. Their

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Speaker 1: past defense is so bad, and their secondary is so bad.

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Speaker 1: You could see how Jackson Dark could have a lot

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Speaker 1: of success against the Bears and a defense that, by

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Speaker 1: the way, has not been able to hold anybody under

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Speaker 1: a twenty five point game. I'm exaggerating, but that's basically

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Speaker 1: the line of demarcation here. Unless they were committing forcing

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Speaker 1: a bunch of turnovers. They won with the Commander. They

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Speaker 1: went against the Commanders because of a bad handoff that

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Speaker 1: got them to win. In that primetime game against Jayden Daniels,

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Speaker 1: they beat the Cowboys because of a bunch of turnovers.

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Speaker 1: They beat the Saints, which still came close to covering

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Speaker 1: because of a bunch of turnovers. Every other game they've had,

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Speaker 1: it's going down to the wire and it's close, and

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Speaker 1: they're winning because there's something fluky happening, and because Ben

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Speaker 1: Johnson is a miracle, not because this team is very good.

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Speaker 1: So four and a half just feels like too many points.

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Speaker 1: I'm surprised to hear the wise guys say they're liking

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Speaker 1: the Bears here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm probably gonna have to join on me at Chad,

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Speaker 4: I if you really don't like a side here, I

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Speaker 4: think there is still a value on the total. Total

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Speaker 4: is down to forty six and a half, and all

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Speaker 4: the reason behind this movement, to me is because of

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Speaker 4: the weather. People like, we're tracking models, you're getting some info,

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Speaker 4: and right now a bunch of different models are predicting

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Speaker 4: rain or snow and very cold temperature in this matchup,

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Speaker 4: which to me favors this Bears team that wants to

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Speaker 4: run the ball heavily and has one of the best

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Speaker 4: run schemes off football against the defense that is really bad.

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Speaker 3: Giants are bottom thirty in the league.

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Speaker 2: They're they're the worst, are they now?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so the Bears.

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Speaker 1: Like, you're right, I'm just like, obviously, I have a

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Speaker 1: strong opinion about the Bears. Their run offense has been

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Speaker 1: so good and that is a major major factor against

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Speaker 1: this team. And the weather, you're right, could be it

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Speaker 1: just might play into the way Ben Johnson wants to

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Speaker 1: play this game. It'll give an excuse not to let

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Speaker 1: Kayleb Williams throw the ball.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and again it's you can take these positions and

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Speaker 4: get out of it Sunday if this all blows over

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Speaker 4: and these models wire turarly off, but you know they're

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Speaker 4: shooting pretty accurate. Two three days out here, the line

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Speaker 4: has come down from forty nine to forty six and

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Speaker 4: a half. They'll let you know. The books are getting

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Speaker 4: really really respected money heavily towards the under. But you're

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Speaker 4: looking at the splits right now, it's still mostly towards

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Speaker 4: the over. I mean, the tickets and the money say

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Speaker 4: towards the over. At the public obviously, like we talked about,

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Speaker 4: they're going to be on this Bears team, Like, no

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Speaker 4: one's going to be trusting the Giants right now, like

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Speaker 4: what we talked about, right That's why we kind of

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Speaker 4: like this the Ghiants team. This feels like a good

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Speaker 4: spot for them, playing against an inflated Bears team that

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Speaker 4: got really lucky. They covered all those for those people

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Speaker 4: last week, and those people are coming back now hitting

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Speaker 4: the Bears again.

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Speaker 3: So I'm like you, I wanted to be on the Giants.

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Speaker 4: Were shocked to hear the professionals were taking these heavy

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Speaker 4: positions on the Bears, and now you dive into it

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Speaker 4: and see what the weather could be like, this just

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Speaker 4: feels are a great spot for the Bear scene. Compared

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Speaker 4: to a young rookie quarterback in Jackson Dart who already

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Speaker 4: has fumbling issues now playing in bad element weather, I

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Speaker 4: don't know. I just I can't get there the Giants

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Speaker 4: if I know that's scenario. So yeah, just if you

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Speaker 4: wantn't want to take as side here, I still think

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Speaker 4: the underreas value on it.

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Speaker 2: I hate the Bears in this spot.

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Speaker 3: I know it's such a Giants number, it's brutal.

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Speaker 1: Such a giant's number. I'm gonna wait. I'm just waiting.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to get to five. But

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Speaker 1: I'd rather just see the weather and know what I'm

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Speaker 1: betting into on Sunday. I don't have to bet this one,

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Speaker 1: So for me, I'm gonna wait. New Orleans at Carolina.

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Speaker 1: Carolina is a five point favorite. Five and a half,

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Speaker 1: move to five, still five at hard Rock, five and

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Speaker 1: a half in a lot of other places. I want

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Speaker 1: to say play the number, but the truth is, like

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Speaker 1: this number home or road Division dogs of five plus points,

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Speaker 1: It's basically a fifty to fifty proposition. So if you're

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Speaker 1: looking at it from that point of view, there is

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Speaker 1: no real edge in terms of historical precedent. Caroline at

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Speaker 1: home is great. The Russian game is great. They're really confident.

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Speaker 1: The Saints are not. They might not have an NFL

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Speaker 1: quarterback on their roster.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the number just spooks you. It sews me too.

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Speaker 4: I'll probably end up just taking a large position with

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Speaker 4: Carolina on the money line and just avoid this game

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Speaker 4: if I can, because it does feel like it's mispriced,

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Speaker 4: and this is a great spot for this Carolina team

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Speaker 4: at home again, it's what we just said is just

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Speaker 4: a non existent offensive quarterback and could he show up

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Speaker 4: here and have a game of his life. Yeah, we've

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Speaker 4: seen that happen all the time. Right, these guys pop

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Speaker 4: for one game. But just as a betting man, I

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Speaker 4: love this number and working against the Panthers just the

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Speaker 4: issue of them being a favorite, right, I think they're

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Speaker 4: on a crazy streak. They're zero to ten as a favorite.

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Speaker 4: And that's a lot of bright young too. I think

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Speaker 4: he has three or four games mixed in there. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I'm a game. I'm not basterly having into. It's just

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Speaker 4: I found other games this week I like a lot more.

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Speaker 4: But still on Carolina side, still taking the number at

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Speaker 4: minus five, but much more comfortable putting their money line

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Speaker 4: in it. Wow, it's up to the minus two forty five,

280
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Speaker 4: so people been hitting it. It was rest and yeah

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Speaker 4: it's been getting hit, this money line on the Panthers.

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Speaker 1: You know a game that we are into and I

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Speaker 1: hate to say it, and maybe it's the sickos in us.

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Speaker 1: The Cleveland Browns are visiting the New York Jets on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: When we started the show, the Jets I think were

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Speaker 1: two point favorites. It had gone up from one and

287
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Speaker 1: a half to two. During the show, the news broke

288
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Speaker 1: that Sauce Gardner was being traded to the Indianapolis Colts

289
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Speaker 1: for multiple picks. Later in the day, it was announced

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Speaker 1: that the Jets were trading Quinn Williams, their star defensive tackle,

291
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Speaker 1: to the Dallas Cowboys for multiple picks. Yesterday, it was

292
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Speaker 1: announced that Quincy Williams, the Jets starting linebacker Quinn's brother,

293
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Speaker 1: All Pro in twenty twenty three, was being benched for

294
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Speaker 1: lack of performance. We still don't know who the quarterback

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Speaker 1: is going to be for the New York Jets. On Sunday,

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Speaker 1: the New York Jets GM said that the Jets are

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Speaker 1: still trying to win. He knows how much those guys try.

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Speaker 1: We are st trying to win this season.

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Speaker 2: Quote.

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Speaker 1: Maybe he and Aaron Glenn are not in the same page,

301
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Speaker 1: because Aaron Glenn said yesterday, I said we would make

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Speaker 1: the fans proud. I didn't say it would be this season.

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Speaker 1: That gives you a lot of confidence. Here's the problem.

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Speaker 1: Here's the problem, Simon, You're ready. The line has moved

305
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Speaker 1: to Jets plus two at hard Rock plus two and

306
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:37,120
Speaker 1: a half everywhere else and the fundamentals of this game

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Speaker 1: remained the same. It was never about the Jets defense.

308
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Speaker 1: It's about the Jets offense against the Browns defense. Because

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Speaker 1: we have zero expectations at Dylan Gabriel, whether he's playing

310
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Speaker 1: Quinn Williams or Sat Gardner, whoever else is going to

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Speaker 1: be playing in those positions, is not an NFL quarterback.

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Speaker 1: So we were betting when we liked the Jets the

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Speaker 1: other day against Dylan Gabriel. All why wouldn't we still

314
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Speaker 1: be betting against Dylan Gabriel. This is a massive move.

315
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Speaker 4: Yeah, a game though I needed to be Justin Field's Honestly,

316
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Speaker 4: I know it sounds stupid, but I like his matchup

317
00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:20,320
Speaker 4: a lot against this defensive front in the Cleveland and

318
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Speaker 4: Shockling his career. He does really well against these type

319
00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:25,840
Speaker 4: of defensive fronts when he plays a defensive front that's

320
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,920
Speaker 4: you know, got a high sack rate about four percent.

321
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,360
Speaker 4: He's four and two against the spreading his career, which

322
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Speaker 4: again doesn't sound great if you look at Justin Field's career,

323
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Speaker 4: It's probably the only positive ats Daddy has when.

324
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Speaker 3: You really dive into it.

325
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Speaker 4: He's just not a covering guy his whole career he's

326
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Speaker 4: just had a rough go of it, and looking at

327
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Speaker 4: this matchup, it really is kind of weird that the

328
00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 4: public is so comfortable hammering this brown side even with

329
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Speaker 4: all the trades. Even before that we were talking on

330
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Speaker 4: our show, they were loving him then as a favorite,

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Speaker 4: I mean as an underdog. Now they're really still loving

332
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Speaker 4: him as a as a favorite. And this to me is

333
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Speaker 4: going to come down tons of pros, I know, professional groups.

334
00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:07,320
Speaker 4: When I come on the Jets, I mean again, I

335
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,960
Speaker 4: get what we're doing it, but there I am also

336
00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:11,840
Speaker 4: a little weary of betting this one because we have

337
00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:14,359
Speaker 4: to remember these arghuman beings. How are they going to

338
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:18,000
Speaker 4: respond to what just happened from their front office? Like

339
00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:21,080
Speaker 4: their front office basically just wave the white flag on

340
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Speaker 4: the season like they I agree with it too. I

341
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:26,479
Speaker 4: mean some Jet fans are complaining. It's like, dude, you guys,

342
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,679
Speaker 4: that was like our dream scenario. You dump two guys

343
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Speaker 4: that I don't want to say they're being overpaid, but

344
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:34,080
Speaker 4: just they're not going to help you get to where

345
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:35,400
Speaker 4: you need to be in the next two to three years.

346
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Speaker 4: You need to totally tear it down. So you know, Dallas,

347
00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 4: horrible trade. In my opinion, Colt's very questionable. But you know,

348
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Speaker 4: for the Jets, I love the move. You're stocking up

349
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:48,119
Speaker 4: in what should be really good drafts. Now to have

350
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Speaker 4: the front office to make the right picks, that's to

351
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Speaker 4: be determined. So just for this game chat, I like it.

352
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Speaker 4: It's really about the number though, this to me is

353
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Speaker 4: going to come down if you can still get the

354
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Speaker 4: plus two plus two and a half. You hear this,

355
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:01,920
Speaker 4: I would take the position on the Jets once it

356
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 4: gets blowed the two. I don't know how much I'm

357
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:05,920
Speaker 4: gonna be invested in here until I know exactly who

358
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,399
Speaker 4: the quarterback is going to be, and if that is

359
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 4: in fact justin fields, we can re re enter this

360
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 4: one on Sunday morning. Talk about putting in the contest,

361
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 4: but you said it right now, I'm betting into the

362
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,399
Speaker 4: two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is.

363
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I am as well.

364
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Speaker 1: The flip side of the team sort of being frustrated

365
00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 1: is you guys get a chance to prove themselves in

366
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Speaker 1: a wide open situation and put on tape for somebody

367
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Speaker 1: for next season how well they can play.

368
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:38,720
Speaker 2: I don't.

369
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Speaker 1: I just I never buy the fact that guys are

370
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Speaker 1: going to stop competing. When you're a professional athlete getting paid,

371
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:46,359
Speaker 1: you want to stay in the league.

372
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Speaker 2: This is your best chance to do it.

373
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Speaker 1: There's gonna be a guy who's getting a chance to start,

374
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Speaker 1: a cornerback who hasn't a chance to do that.

375
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,719
Speaker 4: Oh, I'm in Like on the like Breese Hall, Briesaw

376
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:56,399
Speaker 4: had a foot out the door, was almost on the

377
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:59,120
Speaker 4: Kansas City Chiefs. Kn't it wake up today? And he's

378
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,080
Speaker 4: still on the Jets. That's got to be weird mentally,

379
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,479
Speaker 4: Like yeah, and I'm sure you'll get it back. He's

380
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,199
Speaker 4: a professional. I just think of all of those snares

381
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:09,160
Speaker 4: like that, the guys on this team, you know, you're

382
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:13,119
Speaker 4: so close to being on a winning team. Obviously not everybody.

383
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:14,960
Speaker 4: I mean some guys went the Dallas. That's a that's

384
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,160
Speaker 4: a tough trade, but you know, I just I thought

385
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 4: it was really interesting that they didn't move Brisoll because

386
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 4: they apparently wanted a third and then take a fourth

387
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 4: and it's like, what are you doing, Jets?

388
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:27,679
Speaker 3: Just sell it all, man, you're trying to lose here

389
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 3: and Bristol.

390
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 4: Again and some of it's back the Jets here. I

391
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 4: am so happy he's still on this team, they need

392
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,159
Speaker 4: them offensively. He's by far their best weapon.

393
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,119
Speaker 1: Well look, the flip side is Brisall keeps showing how

394
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:39,560
Speaker 1: good he is, and next year he just gets a

395
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 1: bigger deal from somebody. Yeah, so you know, so yeah,

396
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,440
Speaker 1: I hate to say it, but we're kind of on

397
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,120
Speaker 1: the Jets Jacksonville at Houston.

398
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 2: Houston.

399
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 1: Look, on Tuesday we talked about wanting to wait on

400
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 1: this game until Houston was an underdog. Houston is an underdog.

401
00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 1: It's one at Hard rocked that one and a half

402
00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 1: in a lot of other places.

403
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:01,399
Speaker 2: We're just betting on the defense.

404
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 1: We're not betting on Davis Mills, who we would expect

405
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 1: Davis Mills is going to be a little bit better

406
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: because I mean, obviously he has limitations, but he's got

407
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 1: a full week of practice. He's not coming in and

408
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,640
Speaker 1: then end at the beginning of the second quarter any

409
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 1: game plan that was built for somebody else entirely. So

410
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:22,399
Speaker 1: I like, I still like Houston here a lot. I

411
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: like him as an underdog a lot.

412
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,679
Speaker 3: Simon be patient. Hard Rock here in Jersey's already just

413
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 3: moved the plus two.

414
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 4: So really, yeah, so there's gonna be money coming on

415
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,919
Speaker 4: the Jaguars. The Jags have owned the Texans again their

416
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,439
Speaker 4: last couple of meetings. They've just even when CJ has

417
00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 4: been the quarterback, they've kind of owned them. It's a

418
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 4: really weird matchup, just divisional. When you talk about time,

419
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 4: there's a couple of divisional games this week, you'll I'll

420
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,120
Speaker 4: give out the trends. There's just trends that favors certain teams,

421
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 4: certain matchups.

422
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 3: So yeah, game, I'm going with you on.

423
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 4: I really love the Texans here, but I'm trying to

424
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 4: be patient, trying to avoid this if I can, because

425
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,200
Speaker 4: it's like I'm not going to force this one unless

426
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:00,359
Speaker 4: I'm getting really good numb or so.

427
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 3: It's two at hard Rock right now.

428
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 4: A couple of books, like we say hard Rock's a

429
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 4: short book, A couple of public books have already popped

430
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 4: two and a half, so this could get to three

431
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,680
Speaker 4: by Sunday. Like I just see the public really coming

432
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:13,679
Speaker 4: on this Jaguars team as the week goes along. Here

433
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 4: again it's it's Davis Mills, Like I get it, like

434
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 4: there should be a great spot for this Jaguars team,

435
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 4: and we love Houston defense. They can only do so much,

436
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,879
Speaker 4: like we say, all the time. So I'm like you,

437
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 4: I still like Houston. I'm gonna be patient here, get

438
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 4: a better number. Like I said, this is moving up people.

439
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 4: You can get two and a half right now, key number.

440
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 4: I'm gonna grab down Houston.

441
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 2: A lot of.

442
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 1: A lot of sort of be patient conversation right now because.

443
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 3: The numbers are moving against us.

444
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:48,159
Speaker 4: I just don't want to take bad numbers here and

445
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:49,959
Speaker 4: when we can get it looks like we're gonna get

446
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 4: some good numbers this weekend, right.

447
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,199
Speaker 1: So if you can get I would say, you can

448
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 1: get Houston two and a half. Get Houston two and

449
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 1: a half. I don't know that it'll go to three.

450
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 1: At some point, there's going to be like an aggressive

451
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 1: amount of buyback from professionals. I'm actually surprised as getting

452
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 1: as high as it is, knowing that most of the

453
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 1: people I'm talking to like Houston as an underdog and

454
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 1: we're just waiting for it to get to that number.

455
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 1: So the fact that it's still going up, what is

456
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 1: that saying to me?

457
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:19,160
Speaker 2: Right now?

458
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 3: What do you mean the some pro promo pro money's

459
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 3: in this Jaguars side. I know well that you know

460
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 3: it's okay.

461
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:31,719
Speaker 2: It's a little bit nerve wracking.

462
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 1: I like it when we're all when we're all aligned,

463
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 1: when everyone's together, it's like a group sweat.

464
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 2: New England at Tampa Bay.

465
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:43,959
Speaker 3: There we go, finally some good games.

466
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is a two and a half point favorite.

467
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 1: This was Chad's choice. I got to tell you, I'm

468
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,880
Speaker 1: a bit disappointed that it hasn't moved even a half

469
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 1: point to three. It's especially concerning because while the tickets

470
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 1: are on the box, even more money is on the Bucks,

471
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 1: and so that tells me that there is some wise

472
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,160
Speaker 1: guy I love for Tampa Bay despite what we talked

473
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 1: about in sharp calls, and I kind of don't get it.

474
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 1: Like the Bucks have had extra rest, which means Baker

475
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:24,119
Speaker 1: is hopefully cured of some of the ills that ailed him.

476
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: We don't know about Bucky Irving. We know that their

477
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: offensive aligned could be improved. We know there's going to

478
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 1: be a lot of passing in this game. Fine, but

479
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 1: I like the coaching matchup. I like the Bucks at home.

480
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:39,919
Speaker 1: I like the Bucks coming off rest. I like fading

481
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:45,719
Speaker 1: the Patriots when they're finally playing a competitive team on

482
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 1: the road, a more challenging team. Give me the other

483
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 1: side here, unless we're both aligned and the Bucks are

484
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 1: going to be the ones that we love.

485
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 3: Ye alone too. I'm just people be cautious here.

486
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 4: It actually has said three a couple of times this week,

487
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 4: and it's been bed away very quickly. So there is

488
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 4: some very smart money that's resisting this at three. So

489
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 4: it's letting you know that professionals are betting that this

490
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 4: will be a close game, where me and you are

491
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 4: betting that this won't be honestly, because we're taking two

492
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 4: and a half here. We know the deal with Baker,

493
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 4: right Like, he wins close games, usually by a field

494
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,120
Speaker 4: goal at two and a half.

495
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 3: Again, like, I'm like you, I can't believe we're getting

496
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 3: away with this.

497
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,159
Speaker 4: It feels like a very very nice number with a

498
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 4: quarterback that tends to play close games under.

499
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 3: A field goal.

500
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 4: So I get where the pros are coming from. I

501
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 4: get their position on this New England team. They've been

502
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 4: riding them a lot this season, they've been paying them out.

503
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,919
Speaker 4: This is another true test spot for New England, right, Like,

504
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 4: this is a game where I think we're on alignment,

505
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 4: Like they should get rolled here.

506
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 3: A lot of questions.

507
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 4: About the health this Bucks team, Like Chad said, we

508
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 4: don't know you have Bucky Irvin's back. Chris Godwin still

509
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,919
Speaker 4: hasn't practiced yet this week. Those are two huge pieces

510
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 4: to all pros to that offense that they need in

511
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 4: this game. So I'm hoping they come back and when

512
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 4: they get cleared, the number does move.

513
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 3: Maybe that's what's holding up the lot line moving here.

514
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 4: But yeah, just breaking this one down even you know,

515
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 4: not just gonna give Will Campbell too hard of a

516
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 4: time last week because you're going to again smiles Garrett

517
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 4: or two weeks ago. And then he kind of got

518
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 4: embarrassed last week against Atlanta, like Atlanta's line got a

519
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 4: ton of pressure against his doingland front. You expect the

520
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 4: Bucks defense and the blitz scheme they run, you know,

521
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 4: should get pressure against Drake Man. We've seen him kind

522
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 4: of that's the only thing that really struggles with when

523
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 4: he can't do what he's so great at, which is

524
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 4: getting outside the pocket and uses like as running.

525
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 3: For ten yards.

526
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 4: If you keep him contained, bottle him up, he'll struggle.

527
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 4: And we know that's what Todd Bowles likes to do.

528
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm an ertzk I'm a huge hurts guy.

529
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 4: Every time hers struggles against this Bulls defense. It's because

530
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 4: he bottles over the five in the front. So I'm

531
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,640
Speaker 4: with you, Chad. It's we'll see Sunday. Maybe I can,

532
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 4: I'll get more info and maybe I guy talk this

533
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 4: out of it. But as we say to it right now,

534
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 4: I bet heavily into the bucks. I love the Bucks.

535
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 4: I think it's a great number. And I think this

536
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 4: Patriots team is just like last week, a little overvalued,

537
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 4: and I think they're are valued here. There's probably should

538
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,119
Speaker 4: be three and a half. It's two and a half.

539
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 4: Come on, we can't avoid this one.

540
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 1: It's too good Tampa Bay Box. They're going to be

541
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 1: in the final five. It's going to be hard to

542
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: keep them out.

543
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 4: That's oh my god. We'll see what I talked about

544
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 4: this weekend. Because I'm like, if I have a really

545
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 4: smart group being like day, this is a pay this

546
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 4: is a Patriot spot. You guys got to avoid this one. Okay,

547
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 4: maybe I can talk to it, but I'm so bet

548
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 4: into it, so are you. I'm with you.

549
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,239
Speaker 3: I just cannot I can't see it not being one

550
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 3: of our five.

551
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:31,400
Speaker 2: Simon.

552
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: You and I are the really smart group. That's the ballgame.

553
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 1: You and I are the smart group. They should be

554
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,880
Speaker 1: worried about us. If they're betting the Patriots, they should

555
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 1: be like, oh shit, Chad and Simon. There was Chad

556
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:48,919
Speaker 1: choice this week and Simon is bet into it. Like

557
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 1: we got to rethink that's how it should go here.

558
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 4: But you know the issue, it's us, there's public, the pros, everybody,

559
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 4: all of us are on Tampa. I've only heard a

560
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 4: couple of really smart guys, and like you said, this

561
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 4: number is hitting so much resistance at three.

562
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 3: I'm just making sure we're.

563
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 4: Not missing something here because it's interesting, like you said,

564
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 4: this has not gone to three.

565
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 3: I thought this would for sure be three by Thursday.

566
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm actually a little shocked myself, all that, all

567
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 1: that alphatak aside, I'm a little shocked myself. You know what,

568
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 1: I'm not shocked about that we're talking about Arizona as

569
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 1: a six and a half point underdog at Seattle, and

570
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:30,439
Speaker 1: that we are going to make the Arizona Cardinals as

571
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 1: six and a half point underdogs.

572
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 2: Our brass balls better the week.

573
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 3: You know what it takes, It takes brass balls.

574
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 2: We got what we wanted.

575
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett is starting and in what has to be

576
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 1: the ballsiest. I feel like we're doing this in honor

577
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 1: of Jonathan Gannon, because Jonathan Gannon, in three different press

578
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 1: conferences over the past few days, has basically said they're

579
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 1: benching Kyler Murray. At first, he said they were doing

580
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:21,639
Speaker 1: this because Jacoby Brissett was continuing to perform well and

581
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 1: there was also issues with Kyler Murray in.

582
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 2: The health bucket.

583
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 1: And then he said, we're doing it because Jacoby Brissett

584
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 1: is playing well and it's better for the offense to

585
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 1: be able to plan with consistency over the course of

586
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 1: the week. They have since put Kyler Murray on ir

587
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: to quote be able to focus on his rehab, which

588
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: leads to the question what has he been doing. He

589
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: hasn't played in a month. Is he going to focus

590
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 1: harder over the next four weeks? Like everything about this

591
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 1: and this was really telling, The Arizona Republic wrote, for

592
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: the first time in seven years, Kyler Murray is not

593
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 1: the starting quarterback of the Arizona Cardinals. The under lying

594
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 1: meaning there is that Jacoby Brissett is the number one

595
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 1: QB and Kyler Murray has been benched. And you can

596
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: read into it any way you want about him going

597
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 1: on IR. That could just be all right, We're going

598
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: to take some of the pressure off of this conversation.

599
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 1: But before he went on IR, the coach had basically said,

600
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 1: Brissett is going to give us the best chance.

601
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 2: We're going with Brissett. That's interesting to me.

602
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 1: Now the question becomes are we stepping in it with

603
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: the Cardinals.

604
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: Because is it?

605
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 1: Does it become too public to go with a dog

606
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 1: that just came off a big win with a quarterback

607
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 1: we know has been streaking after winning on Monday night.

608
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have some good stats to go against that,

609
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 4: and I will say that Kylier' stuff. I was taken

610
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 4: back by it. I can't believe they went this route,

611
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 4: but it makes sense because what we talked about how

612
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 4: much better the team has looked so much better with

613
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 4: Brisett running the offense, and the fact that if you

614
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 4: do put him in the spot right, put him on

615
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 4: IR maybe does save a little face and saves a

616
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 4: little bit of trade value for you for trying to

617
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 4: get rid of him in the offseason. And I think

618
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 4: anybody knows, even Arizona fans, they saw this week Kyler

619
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 4: was practicing like he was running around out there. He

620
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 4: was good enough to take reps as if he was

621
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 4: going to play last week.

622
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 3: He clearly not didn't have some type of stepback unless

623
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 3: we missed it right.

624
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 4: They know more than we do. It's the team inside

625
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 4: the building. But yeah, this is pretty shocking turn of event.

626
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 4: I saw Kyler Murray. I believe he's twenty eight years old.

627
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 4: Still not too late.

628
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 3: Brother, Go back to MLB, Go get them, see if

629
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 3: you can make a career out of it. It's crazy.

630
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 4: He's one of the greatest athletes ever to come out

631
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 4: of high school and just shows how football it's so mental.

632
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 4: And he never, to me ever got that aspect down.

633
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 4: Was never right mentally all the time in the world.

634
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 4: I mean, I will always remember that play against the Raiders.

635
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 4: I think it was a two point conversion. He ran

636
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 4: around the backfield for about twenty seconds and I think

637
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 4: it was like a total of like eighty yards. He scrampled, yeah, yeah,

638
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 4: and put it right back in the end for the

639
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 4: two pointers. So brutal, brutal, brual end to that saga.

640
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 4: But for this game, let's just look at Okay, like

641
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 4: Chad said, isn't this a bad spot.

642
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,719
Speaker 3: It's a team that won outright, on the road as

643
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 3: a dog on Monday night.

644
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 4: It's actually not terrible statistically, and the next game is

645
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 4: an underdog. They're nine and seven straight up, ten and

646
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 4: six against the spread since two thousand, it's not terrible.

647
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 4: So like, okay, we got a little something there. Now,

648
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 4: this one really jumped out to me. Seahawks and this Cardinals.

649
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 4: I talked about divisional matchups. This is crazy chat and

650
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 4: very bizarre. Again, it doesn't matter because I guess these

651
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,239
Speaker 4: two quarterbacks weren't even know all these teams when all

652
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 4: this one down. But since twenty twenty twenty two, Seahawks

653
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 4: eight and oh straight up seven to one against the

654
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 4: spread against this Cardinals team, they've just owned them in

655
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 4: this division, which again we say the time that that

656
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 4: does happen. But I was like, okay, let me find

657
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 4: some good Cardinal stats, because that's the side we want

658
00:31:58,080 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 4: to be on.

659
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 3: It's a lot of Seahawks love here.

660
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's find some some bias here. Let's find a

661
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: way to make a start.

662
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, well, just because it feels like this is

663
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 4: a great number for the Cardinal team.

664
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 3: Because I let's let's fit.

665
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 2: Some Let's find some stats that fit our narrative and

666
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: what we want to do.

667
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 3: Every week, they've been undervalued.

668
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 4: So they lost to Tennessee as a seven and a

669
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 4: half point favorite with Kyler. The next week they were

670
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 4: at the Colts, he was an eight and a half

671
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 4: point dog. What they lose by four or five points

672
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 4: in that game. The following week they are seven point

673
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 4: doll to Green Bay at home. They lose that game

674
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 4: by four points, and then we just saw with Dabas

675
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 4: there were three and a half points. So to me,

676
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 4: the book keeps Undervaluabersett. That's why it's been hitting. So

677
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 4: I was like, Okay, what kind of numbers do we

678
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 4: have here for teams making a trip out to Seattle

679
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 4: on a short week, which I think that favors the

680
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 4: type of quarterback per set is a veteran quarterback that

681
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 4: just seems like he's totally rhythm with this offense. This

682
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 4: is pretty wild since twenty twenty one teams in this

683
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 4: exact spot heading to Seattle on a short week there's

684
00:32:57,120 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 4: seven and one straight up and against the spread. So

685
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 4: we've talked about the lost art of this Seattle home

686
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 4: field advantage, right like we all think back to the

687
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 4: Legion of Doom, but these last couple of years has

688
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 4: not been so. And then even this year, I've already

689
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 4: gave up those stats. They lost to the forty Anders

690
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 4: and week went at home, Okay, we threw that one out.

691
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 4: Their defense gave up thirty eight points to thirty five

692
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 4: points to Baker at home against Tampa, like it's just

693
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 4: night and day. There's road splits are insane, how much

694
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 4: dominant their defenses and offenses on the road. So I

695
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 4: just like this one on a cell point for the

696
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 4: Seattle team. So me and Chad loves to plus six

697
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 4: and a half people, I think this will keep moving

698
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 4: as well.

699
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 3: Like I said the book, the publics they keep.

700
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 4: Undervaluing per set, so I can easily set in this

701
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 4: get up to seven. Just like last week we talked,

702
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 4: I like the Cardinals there plus two and a half.

703
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 4: I said, if you're if you're a patient, this will

704
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 4: get the three against Dallas, I got up to three

705
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 4: and a half. Because again people just do not believe

706
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 4: in Brussette. So look at the splits right now. Eighty

707
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 4: percent of the money, eighty percent of the bets right

708
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 4: now are on Seattle. So I just I think.

709
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 3: We'll get to seven. We're giving it out right now.

710
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 4: It's six and a half a hard rock I love

711
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 4: this bet, I love this spot, and yeah, it's always

712
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 4: a little scary ben again to arguably the best team,

713
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 4: hottest team in football right now, which Seattle is. But

714
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 4: we're just playing the market, playing the number, and we

715
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:14,439
Speaker 4: think this team is overvalued right now.

716
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:16,879
Speaker 1: I would definitely say wait on the seven. I think

717
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 1: it's gonna get there.

718
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: This one.

719
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: Unlike the other ones that we've talked about, this one

720
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 1: feels like it's it's trending in that way. There doesn't

721
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: seem to be much resistance from the bookmakers, and maybe

722
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: they know they'll get it when it gets to seven.

723
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 1: So I'm holding off. I haven't bet it yet. I

724
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 1: love it. If I'm not gonna get the six and

725
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:39,319
Speaker 1: a half, if I'm not gonna get the seven, I'll

726
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:40,280
Speaker 1: bet the six and a half.

727
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 2: But I'm definitely waiting on the.

728
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:43,800
Speaker 4: Second to get There's two sevens right now in Jersey,

729
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 4: so there's gonna be sevens are gonna start popping eventually.

730
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 1: All right, so let's get that seven, all right? Quick

731
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 1: quick quick word.

732
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,479
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733
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:57,280
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00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,040
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00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,960
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767
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768
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,319
Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Rams are bid are visiting the San

769
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:44,879
Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers.

770
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: The line right now is four.

771
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 1: On Sunday, it was three on Tuesday, it was three

772
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 1: and a half. It's four at hard Rock, Honestly, it's

773
00:36:55,200 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 1: four and a half almost everywhere else, like the book

774
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:05,919
Speaker 1: makers are telling us screw off, go ahead and bet

775
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 1: the Niners.

776
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:08,879
Speaker 2: We dare you.

777
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,839
Speaker 1: What's interesting to me is I am seeing a much

778
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 1: closer split on the betting percentages meaning the number of

779
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:21,720
Speaker 1: tickets between each side, than I am on the money,

780
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 1: which is heavily in favor of the Rams. You know,

781
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 1: you said in sharp calls, whise guys have come in

782
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 1: on the Rams. My question is, was that all at

783
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 1: three and people are ignoring it at four? Do people

784
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 1: like the Niners at four and a half. What's our

785
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 1: opportunity here? Because I got an opinion and it makes

786
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 1: me scared.

787
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was a little as it in here because

788
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 3: we talked.

789
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 4: I took a position on the Rams minus three, and

790
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 4: I said, once I got a three and a half,

791
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 4: I want to been the.

792
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 3: Four nine ers.

793
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 4: And I was completely wrong, obviously missed it. Like you said,

794
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:58,360
Speaker 4: it's been met up now to four to four and

795
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 4: a half. It is more of a mac Jones kind

796
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 4: of thing where maybe the line reflects that party will

797
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 4: be out another week. And this is kind of settling

798
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 4: into what a mac Jones line is, which is four

799
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 4: four and a half, which seems fair to me. And

800
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 4: you know when you want to dive into this game,

801
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 4: I think it's pretty simple. You just dive into head coaches, right,

802
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 4: because the quarterbacks keep changing, the pieces keep changing. But

803
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 4: when you really get to the basis of it, it's

804
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 4: two of the best offensive mines in all football going

805
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 4: incase each other. And it does make a difference where

806
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 4: you know which one is the underdog, and that tends

807
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 4: to be the one I usually take my position on,

808
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:36,840
Speaker 4: So just dive in this matchup. I believe this is

809
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 4: the eighteenth time these two guys have met up and

810
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 4: matched in this type of game. Shanean obviously he's done

811
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 4: best in this matchup. He's eleven and seven against the

812
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,840
Speaker 4: spread his exact games. But what I thought it was

813
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 4: so interesting was diving into what is mcveighman as a favorite,

814
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 4: because that, to me, isn't that terrible eleven and seven.

815
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 4: I thought it was honestly more because it seems like

816
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 4: Shanneon owns them so as a favorite with Stafford McVeigh

817
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:03,800
Speaker 4: three and six against the spread and straight up against Shanahan,

818
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,439
Speaker 4: and that's including this year where they lost outright at

819
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 4: home as an eight point favorite against McVeigh on that

820
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 4: Thursday night game, we talk all the time Thursday Night

821
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 4: are weird games like stuff like that can just happen.

822
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 4: But it's even more so worrying that this game is

823
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,240
Speaker 4: on the road now and McVeigh on the road against

824
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 4: Shannan as a favorite. He's one in three straight up

825
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 4: and against the spread at this exact spot. So the

826
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 4: numbers keep telling you you don't want to go with

827
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 4: McVeigh here, and then you dive into even further when

828
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 4: he's on the road straight up in his career against

829
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 4: you know, Shanahan. This is the last eight times they've

830
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 4: played this exact game. He's won in seven McVeigh. So

831
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 4: you just struggled mightily against Shannan on the road in

832
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 4: these type of games. And you could say, well, that's

833
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 4: kind of flicky because look at all the different quarterbacks

834
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 4: through all the years. And that's my whole point though,

835
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 4: it's the coaches stay the same, the schemes stay the same.

836
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 4: So I I liked this a lot for this forty

837
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 4: nine ers team, And the only hesitation I have is

838
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 4: instead I gave out that I want to keep hammering

839
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 4: home about this team. They cannot handle success, they can't

840
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 4: handle winning. I remember two weeks ago where I said

841
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 4: you had to bet Houston against the forty nine and

842
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 4: one of those stupid stats I gave up that's still held.

843
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 3: True since Christmas of twenty twenty three.

844
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 4: This is from our guy Evan forty nine ers one

845
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 4: in fourteen against the spread after a straight up win,

846
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 4: one in fourteen. So it's like this insane pattern. Even

847
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 4: more so, they're oh and three straight up after a

848
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 4: win when they're a dog in the next game. So

849
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 4: they're oh and three against the spread and straight up

850
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 4: as a dog in this exact spot since Christmas. And

851
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 4: this is just a weird thing where whatever it is,

852
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 4: this team doesn't handle the wins and they get over

853
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:52,839
Speaker 4: valued by the books and they have a letdown. So

854
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 4: that to me might be the reason these pros are

855
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 4: coming on this Rams team. The trends point to it.

856
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 4: It's like every time this fourgners team has a big win,

857
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:03,320
Speaker 4: especially on the road, they've come home they've laid total eggs.

858
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 4: And that's happened a couple of times already this season.

859
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 4: So I really do like the Niners here getting im

860
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,879
Speaker 4: probably talking myself off of it, but I'm not going

861
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 4: to force it in at four. I won't take it,

862
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 4: but at four and a half, I'm taking forty nine

863
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:18,720
Speaker 4: ers there once. Once you get across that key number

864
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 4: a four and a half, I have to take it,

865
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 4: especially where all those trends show mc veigh's struggles on

866
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 4: the road against Shanahan and this exact spot as a favorite.

867
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 4: When people are under you, under betting or not believing

868
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 4: the Niners team, they tend to shine in these exact games.

869
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:37,359
Speaker 1: Listen to me, Listen, don't talk yourself out of it.

870
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 1: The Niners are the right side here, last fourteen games

871
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 1: in this rivalry, the favorite one to thirteen.

872
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:52,320
Speaker 2: Against the spread. Wow, the Niners are the side.

873
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 1: We knew it on Tuesday. It's to me, the line

874
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 1: is moving not because of the trendsit. It's moving because

875
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 1: of the Niners defense. They're just so banged up and

876
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,800
Speaker 1: they're moving. It's moving because of the Rams rush defense,

877
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:09,720
Speaker 1: which has really become a lead. And if you're looking

878
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:13,800
Speaker 1: at this game schematically, the best opportunity that the Niners

879
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:17,720
Speaker 1: have is to get the ball into McCaffrey's hands thirty

880
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:21,319
Speaker 1: five times, as they've been doing. But Matt Jones has

881
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 1: been showing up and he's doing exactly what Kyle Shanahan needs.

882
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 2: Him to do.

883
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 1: The number is way too big. It just it shouldn't

884
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 1: be four and a half points. And so that's the

885
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 1: side simon. You and I we have confidence niners. Niners

886
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 1: are the side no fear. I don't care what anyone

887
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 1: else is saying. Here's one of them that I do

888
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 1: have some concerns. This one is at two and a half.

889
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 1: It's the Green Bay Packers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. It's

890
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:56,839
Speaker 1: actually it was a two and a half, it's moved

891
00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 1: down a bit to two. You and I both talked

892
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 1: about it on Sunday at two and a half. You

893
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 1: said you were hearing a lot of rumblings about the

894
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 1: Eagles at two. I don't know if anyone's going to

895
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 1: get to watch this game because it's a Monday night game,

896
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 1: and who knows where the YouTube TV ESPN standoff is

897
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 1: going to end.

898
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 2: But like shutdowns, could this be.

899
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 1: The moment when it's two massive fan bases that are,

900
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 1: you know, bringing the cable giant and the streaming TV

901
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 1: giant to its knees? Man Tricky, I don't think you

902
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 1: mentioned the Eagles and sharp calls, but I'm still going

903
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 1: to go with the Packers.

904
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 3: I am too.

905
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 4: I didn't mention it much because it is a little split,

906
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 4: but I would say, obviously most pros are on Green Bay.

907
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:58,879
Speaker 4: But when I dove back into why my model had

908
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 4: this so off, like I said, I think I had

909
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 4: it at green Bay minus one. Maybe we're undervaluing Tucker

910
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 4: Craft and what he means this Green Bay team and

911
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 4: how big of a loss that is for this offense.

912
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 4: But I can't get over how great of a spot

913
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 4: this is for the Packers. So maybe I'll have a

914
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 4: stronger opinion comes today morning, I can give talk more

915
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 4: about There's this other games I've bet more into.

916
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 3: I just don't know what to do with this one.

917
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 4: It's another game where it might be in the twenties,

918
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 4: might be a little snowy on Monday night.

919
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:27,839
Speaker 3: This could be affected by the weather.

920
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 4: And you know, if there's no Golden the Rooki receiver,

921
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 4: and now there's no Tucker Craft, it's got to be

922
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:37,280
Speaker 4: an issue, right, Like a passing attack needs its weapons,

923
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 4: especially the team like Green Bay with the it's just

924
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 4: an unnamed receiving core. Right, it's a rotation of guys.

925
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 4: Now you're taking away the number one tight end and

926
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 4: the number two receiver. That's got to effect jord Love

927
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 4: at some aspects. So yeah, for me, I'm still betting

928
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 4: at Green Bay, especially at minus two, but I don't

929
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:56,720
Speaker 4: feel as strongly as I did about it on Sunday

930
00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 4: night or let alone on Tuesday.

931
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 2: I don't feel as strongly about it either.

932
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:01,759
Speaker 1: I think there's been a lot of movement this week

933
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 1: that has made me feel better about games like the

934
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 1: nine Ers. I'm still bought into the box, the Cardinals,

935
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 1: the Jets are really interesting to me. I know we

936
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 1: like the Broncos too, so I do think we're starting

937
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: to find consensus on a bunch of games.

938
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:16,800
Speaker 3: I don't know how you've missed Miami.

939
00:45:20,200 --> 00:45:23,839
Speaker 1: On Tuesday, we talked about liking Miami and it being

940
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 1: the side.

941
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:26,879
Speaker 4: Yeah it that's how you should know. It's the right

942
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 4: that's the right bet for us and probably should.

943
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 3: Be one of our five comes Sunday. All right, let

944
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 3: me let me hit you some numbers.

945
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 2: Talk me into it. Hold on here, but talk me

946
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 2: into it.

947
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:40,360
Speaker 1: Give me the numbers, but then tell me your hypothesis

948
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:40,839
Speaker 1: for the game.

949
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:44,840
Speaker 4: I just love this running matchup. I think against his

950
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 4: Bill's defense favors it's Miami team a lot of ways.

951
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:49,279
Speaker 3: And it's also a unique spot.

952
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 4: Whether it's Tua at home with a big number, who

953
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 4: always covers for us in this exact spot, except.

954
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:59,399
Speaker 2: Against the Ravens Thursday night, like a weekd that.

955
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:01,399
Speaker 4: Was different though that wasn't a midday in the sun

956
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:04,879
Speaker 4: type of game. That was a primetime late game. Look,

957
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 4: we got burned by that one, no doubt. I'm trying

958
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:06,840
Speaker 4: not to.

959
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 3: Let that affect us in this game. Here, I'll hit

960
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 3: you with the numbers real quick.

961
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 2: All right, hit me with the numbers, Josh.

962
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 3: All, let's start with him, the Goat.

963
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 4: We all know how great he is, but on the

964
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 4: road is more than a touchdown favorite.

965
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:21,319
Speaker 3: I think we could both agree.

966
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 4: It feels like he's not that great, And when you

967
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 4: dive into the numbers, it proves out he's two and

968
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 4: six against the Spring in his career on the road

969
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 4: as a seven a half point favorite or more.

970
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 3: Okay, not the biggest deal. All right, Well, let's dive

971
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:32,799
Speaker 3: into some more.

972
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 4: Dolphins got blown out last week, right, they were a

973
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 4: dog of seven points or more. They lost by twenty

974
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 4: points or more last week in this exact spot. Those

975
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 4: type of teams and a bounce back spot fifteen and

976
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:49,799
Speaker 4: seven against the spread. So look, we already knew it's

977
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 4: gonna be a by low on this Dolphins team because

978
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 4: they just got embarrassed and blown out.

979
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 1: But every week, every week is by low on the Dolphins.

980
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 4: Now, I mean we high last week after they blew

981
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 4: out Atlanta. That was again that was on us. We

982
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:07,320
Speaker 4: should that we misread that one two of this week,

983
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,799
Speaker 4: he just got embarrassed. This is his back to back,

984
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 4: So his second home stand game, which you know we

985
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 4: always talk we love to at home or indoors in

986
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 4: controlled environments, to a at home in this exact spot,

987
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:22,479
Speaker 4: So his second straight home game in his career. He's

988
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,920
Speaker 4: ten and two straight up, nine and three against the spread.

989
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 4: Oh but Chad, what's you like as an underdog in

990
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:29,200
Speaker 4: this exact spot?

991
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 2: Oh, Tony Simon three and oh.

992
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:34,360
Speaker 4: Straight up and against the spread, and this exact spot

993
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:36,359
Speaker 4: to at home and the back to back game as

994
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:39,799
Speaker 4: an underdog. So I kept diving into it, and it's like,

995
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 4: is there more stats I can pull from the good

996
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:44,359
Speaker 4: chat to try to flip on this one? I got

997
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 4: another one for you to at home twenty six and

998
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 4: eleven straight up, and when they lose and they have

999
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 4: a following game again at home. He is three and

1000
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 4: oh straight up and against the spread, covering those games

1001
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 4: by fifteen points per game. That's and insanes that he

1002
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 4: basically if he gets embarrassed or lose at home, he's

1003
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 4: dominating that second.

1004
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:09,319
Speaker 3: Game at home.

1005
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 4: And we talked, we just we've been profitable betting to

1006
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 4: it at home in that hot sun whatever it is,

1007
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 4: all the new shoe and the naonce it's true, like

1008
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 4: teams get burned out, they wear on. Tool always comes

1009
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 4: back and covers these big spreads in the second half

1010
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:24,879
Speaker 4: at him. So I just wanted to bring that game

1011
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 4: up as a game you're going to need to take

1012
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 4: a little closer look at I'm betting into it. I

1013
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 4: don't feel great about slamming the table about Tua and

1014
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 4: this Miami team, but this is a great matchup for

1015
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 4: their offense, and I think defensively as great as Josh

1016
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,960
Speaker 4: Allen is and that offense is Cook is banged up.

1017
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:41,440
Speaker 4: He's been on the injury report this week and he's

1018
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 4: not been practicing. I think I'll be interesting if their

1019
00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 4: number one running back is Ray Davis. Even though Miami

1020
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 4: doesn't have a good front, that's a huge deal. Cook

1021
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 4: is like a top five, top ten running back of

1022
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 4: football right now. So that's another reason I think this

1023
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:57,720
Speaker 4: numbers dropped a little bit. Like again, there's no public

1024
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 4: or professional level. I've honestly found this Miami team. It's

1025
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:03,439
Speaker 4: just us, buddy, and that makes me love it even more.

1026
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 4: Everyone's left them for dead. And this the exact spot

1027
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 4: we got to be buying this Miami Dolphins team. I

1028
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:09,200
Speaker 4: know we need to get out of here. I'll be

1029
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 4: quick on the next one Detroit. The pros are all

1030
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 4: over this Washingt team. This number has been bet down

1031
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 4: now to seven and a half.

1032
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 3: I get it.

1033
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:19,760
Speaker 4: I'm missing something. This might be a huge blind spot

1034
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 4: once again. But I have to trust Campbell, just like

1035
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:25,760
Speaker 4: I did last week, Campbell and Golf on these spots.

1036
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:28,719
Speaker 3: I'm so freaking proudy man. That's a way to show up.

1037
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:29,880
Speaker 3: You talk about pressure.

1038
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:30,880
Speaker 2: We living pressure.

1039
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 3: That's what we freaking thrive.

1040
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:34,879
Speaker 2: You did it again. You always find a way to win.

1041
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 2: We're testing for this.

1042
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 3: Just stay the course.

1043
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 4: I've been betting it for so long, We've been making

1044
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 4: money off for so long.

1045
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 3: What do we do here?

1046
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 4: We're trying to go against our instinct here, and I

1047
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:45,399
Speaker 4: know it's the very public side. It's probably the most

1048
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 4: public side of the week. So maybe that's how we

1049
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 4: all avoid it. It's so public, maybe we can tuck

1050
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:51,759
Speaker 4: ourselves out of it. But Golf and Campbell after a

1051
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:54,800
Speaker 4: straight up loss twenty one to eight against the spread,

1052
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 4: like it's just what they do. They are on a

1053
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:02,839
Speaker 4: twelve game covering streak after losing the previous game right now,

1054
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:05,320
Speaker 4: So every time they've lost, they've come back and covered

1055
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,120
Speaker 4: the flying game for twelve straight times. So I just

1056
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 4: wanted to bringing them up real quick. I know that

1057
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:13,719
Speaker 4: I'm gonna get a ton of shit from a lot

1058
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:15,880
Speaker 4: of pros this upcoming week at the book. You know,

1059
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:18,920
Speaker 4: I'm on this public side once again because again they're

1060
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:20,919
Speaker 4: taking a victory lap in the Vikings. They were totally right,

1061
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 4: tertoughly terrible read by me.

1062
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:27,000
Speaker 1: I do worry They've got a lot of developing injuries

1063
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 1: in their offense, specifically in the offensive line that is

1064
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 1: impacting their ability to block and.

1065
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:35,840
Speaker 2: Their rush game. And I talked about this on Tuesday.

1066
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 2: I love Detroit.

1067
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:39,719
Speaker 1: Last week too, they were Chad's choice as a big

1068
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 1: number against the Vikings because I had no faith in

1069
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:44,719
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy and I had all the faith in the

1070
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:48,040
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions ability to run the ball against Minnesota Vikings

1071
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:51,400
Speaker 1: rush defense that hasn't been playing well this year. The

1072
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 1: problem is, and I noted this on Tuesday, what we

1073
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 1: saw on Sunday was a lack of success rate that

1074
00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 1: allows them to get to a position on third down

1075
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:02,799
Speaker 1: where they can execute. You could say that they will

1076
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 1: do better against the Commanders in this spot because their

1077
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:08,839
Speaker 1: defense is just terrible. But the line's also been having

1078
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 1: offensive line issues and some injuries on that offensive line.

1079
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:13,399
Speaker 1: So I think that has as much do with sort

1080
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:15,360
Speaker 1: of this line moving from what was it eight and

1081
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 1: a half to eight down to seven and a half

1082
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 1: as it does with fading the Lions overall because of

1083
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:23,839
Speaker 1: what happened last week.

1084
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, the biggest thing winning back Detrait this year. It's

1085
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 4: very simple when you dive into numbers. They are at

1086
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 4: twenty fifth and third down conversion rate and their eighteenth

1087
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 4: and first downs but can't convert.

1088
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 3: They can't, but this is the definition.

1089
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 4: But get right where they're playing a defense at in

1090
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:42,120
Speaker 4: red zone efficency, they're twenty seventh in the league. They

1091
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 4: are giving up their thirtieth in yards per play defensively,

1092
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 4: they are their twenty ninth and giving up the most

1093
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:52,040
Speaker 4: passing yards in the league, and they're twenty third against

1094
00:51:52,080 --> 00:51:54,879
Speaker 4: the rush. So this is it for Detroit. They can't

1095
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 4: get right here. Like I said, maybe you're right, maybe

1096
00:51:57,120 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 4: I'll swear them off for good.

1097
00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 3: And as honest as I can, I don't know.

1098
00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:04,319
Speaker 4: I really don't even know how to respond to that,

1099
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:07,920
Speaker 4: you know, I mean, I'm shocked by.

1100
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 2: That Steelers visiting their Chargers.

1101
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:11,919
Speaker 1: The game was three and a half on Sunday, it's

1102
00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:13,960
Speaker 1: moved down to three. We liked it a lot at

1103
00:52:13,960 --> 00:52:19,879
Speaker 1: three and a half. You said you're hearing stuff from

1104
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:22,840
Speaker 1: the wise guys on the Chargers, which is surprising to

1105
00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:26,399
Speaker 1: me because Joe Alt is out and it's a game

1106
00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:28,640
Speaker 1: in LA where the Steelers travel, and it's going to

1107
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:30,400
Speaker 1: feel like you're, you know.

1108
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 2: Back at the old three Rivers. When you're playing you not.

1109
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 3: Get it, especially when it's the plus three. I just

1110
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 3: do not get this Chargers love.

1111
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:39,400
Speaker 4: So it's another game I'm trying to be careful on

1112
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:42,000
Speaker 4: because it does feel way too easy, like we're getting

1113
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 4: a dog here against a team that should not be

1114
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:48,240
Speaker 4: favored against this defensive front, and you know, one takeaway

1115
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 4: could be this defense played over seventy snaps against that

1116
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 4: cold Steam last week, and that's not a pushover Colts team.

1117
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 4: That's a big, physical, really tough Colts team that that

1118
00:52:57,239 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 4: could affect this Pittsburgh defense in But it's already been

1119
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 4: a year of very up and down play, right.

1120
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 3: We joked about it.

1121
00:53:03,640 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 4: They need five turnovers per game to steal these type

1122
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 4: of games. So that's the weird here. But the one

1123
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:10,440
Speaker 4: that really jumped out to me about a couple of

1124
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:13,279
Speaker 4: people send me this stat about just Herbert and how

1125
00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 4: great he's been in these night games, which was pretty shocking,

1126
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 4: just because it feels like before Harwall got there, they

1127
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:20,799
Speaker 4: were just so terrible, this Chargers team, and they just

1128
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:23,160
Speaker 4: did have no coaching. But he's actually in a five

1129
00:53:23,239 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 4: game ATS streak winning night games. I think the only

1130
00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 4: one I could pop in my head was that Chiefs

1131
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 4: game to start the year. I know that was a

1132
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 4: night game for a fact, when they played down in Brazil.

1133
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 4: In his career, Herbert sixteen and nine against the spread,

1134
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:40,520
Speaker 4: covering by three and a half points per game. And

1135
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:43,200
Speaker 4: this is exact night games type of game. So there's

1136
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 4: a lot to like them here. As a favorite. He's

1137
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 4: ten and three straight up in these type of games.

1138
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 4: I just wanted to bring it up just because we're

1139
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:52,160
Speaker 4: just we're so in love with the Steelers. I want

1140
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:53,880
Speaker 4: to talk about the other side, why people might like

1141
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:55,879
Speaker 4: the Chargers and Herbert to bounce back.

1142
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:57,360
Speaker 3: But I'm with Chad.

1143
00:53:57,480 --> 00:53:59,080
Speaker 4: I just can't get to the fact that losing Joe

1144
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:02,480
Speaker 4: Alt this this offensive front, him having no time. They

1145
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 4: can't set up a run game either, because they can't

1146
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:06,800
Speaker 4: run block either. It's just it just feels so negative

1147
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:08,359
Speaker 4: for the Chargers team. On the flip side, I just

1148
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:11,279
Speaker 4: love Pittsburgh, So maybe again I can avoid it because

1149
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:15,799
Speaker 4: I'm lying to myself saying, well, Pittsburgh's defense seventy snaps now,

1150
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 4: short week on the road. That's a tough spot to

1151
00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 4: put this defense is. But just man, what am I

1152
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 4: grabbing here with this Chargers team. Other than Herbert, It

1153
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 4: just feels like a lost bet.

1154
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:28,000
Speaker 1: Here's what if I had to predict how we're narrowing

1155
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 1: it down on Sunday. I think we're talking about San Francisco.

1156
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,720
Speaker 1: I think we're talking about Arizona. I think we're talking

1157
00:54:36,719 --> 00:54:40,440
Speaker 1: about Houston. I think we will have talked about Denver.

1158
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:46,040
Speaker 1: I think the Jets will be in the conversation. I

1159
00:54:46,080 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 1: know Miami is going to be in the conversation because

1160
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 1: I already could lean that way and you're feeling heavily,

1161
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:56,960
Speaker 1: you're feeling strongly about it. So and maybe green Bay,

1162
00:54:57,040 --> 00:54:58,799
Speaker 1: well we'll have to have a conversation. I don't think

1163
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 1: Detroit's gonna make it I don't know if the Steelers

1164
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 1: will make it either. Maybe that's a mistake and we'll

1165
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:08,360
Speaker 1: talk it out on Sunday. But those feel like the

1166
00:55:08,400 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 1: games to me again, Denver, which we both love Tonight

1167
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 1: Thursday night, the Jets plus two and a half, the

1168
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:18,800
Speaker 1: Cardinals plus six and a half, which is our brass balls,

1169
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 1: the Niners plus four and a half, Miami plus nine

1170
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 1: and a half feel like the leading contender.

1171
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 2: Simon, give me your biggest bets.

1172
00:55:26,840 --> 00:55:30,920
Speaker 3: Pull up those pants and be a man. Obviously, people

1173
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 3: know love Denver. Tonight.

1174
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:35,680
Speaker 4: I'm gonna have a lot of money tied to them Dolphins,

1175
00:55:36,520 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 4: but pretty big into bucks, but pretty big into and

1176
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 4: you know a lot of these gamers waiting positions like

1177
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:43,800
Speaker 4: forty nine ers probably going to pen as a bigger

1178
00:55:43,800 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 4: bet seeing with the Cardinals just waiting to get better

1179
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:47,719
Speaker 4: numbers on those games.

1180
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 1: Last week underdog parlay and Favorites parlay. We are leaning

1181
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 1: into favorites so much more. We ended up having to

1182
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:58,240
Speaker 1: do both sides of games, which we don't love doing.

1183
00:55:58,840 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 1: So Mitchell suggestion, I think your suggestion, and we'll three.

1184
00:56:03,520 --> 00:56:05,160
Speaker 1: Let's do three for the underdog parlay.

1185
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 4: My dog blocks your dog, Your dog.

1186
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 3: Blocks mo Dog. Jets plus one ten.

1187
00:56:14,920 --> 00:56:16,759
Speaker 1: I was just going to say, Jets have to be

1188
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 1: in there. Texans le see, yeah, I like that.

1189
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:24,160
Speaker 2: Niners I like that all right.

1190
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 1: Underdog money line parlay Round Robin Jets, Houston, Niners. Favorites

1191
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:40,320
Speaker 1: Panthers Panthers, Lions.

1192
00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 3: Panthers, Lions, Ravens.

1193
00:56:43,960 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 2: Ravens for sure. We're all in on the bucks either way.

1194
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:53,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true, that's true. Bears are yeah. Ten.

1195
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 2: Let's do the Bears, Bears, Let's do the Bears.

1196
00:56:56,680 --> 00:56:56,919
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1197
00:56:57,160 --> 00:56:58,279
Speaker 2: I'd already forgotten about the.

1198
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 3: Bears survivor before we get out of here. Tough, tough week.

1199
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:08,240
Speaker 4: I unfortunately to use the lines, God, I can't believe

1200
00:57:08,280 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 4: I'm doing it. Panthers, Wow, I know, my God, I

1201
00:57:15,480 --> 00:57:17,640
Speaker 4: gotta do it though. It's it's that kind of it's

1202
00:57:17,720 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 4: it's that year where you guys start getting into.

1203
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:22,560
Speaker 3: The other teams that win each week. So I'm gonna

1204
00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 3: go Panthers.

1205
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:28,200
Speaker 2: All right, Sharp versus Square? We both lost last week?

1206
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 2: Would you like to go first? You you had the

1207
00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:32,040
Speaker 2: Chargers last week I had the Jacks.

1208
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:33,880
Speaker 3: Oh, I guess I'll flip the last week.

1209
00:57:33,920 --> 00:57:36,480
Speaker 4: I went with a minus nine and a half road favorite.

1210
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:38,920
Speaker 4: Give me Miami plus nine and a half home dog. Wow.

1211
00:57:39,680 --> 00:57:43,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that. That makes me feel even more

1212
00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 1: confident about putting in the contest, though, I will tell you.

1213
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:48,040
Speaker 3: That that's scary.

1214
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:49,880
Speaker 2: I'll go to San Francisco.

1215
00:57:50,360 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 3: Here you go. What number? Are you taking four and

1216
00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:53,760
Speaker 3: a half for.

1217
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 2: Four and a half and you're taking Miami plus nine

1218
00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 2: and a half?

1219
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 3: Let's go right?

1220
00:57:57,720 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, all right. This has been Sharper Square,

1221
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:03,240
Speaker 2: part of the Volume podcast network.

1222
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 1: We will be back. I'm Sharper Square on YouTube on

1223
00:58:05,960 --> 00:58:10,840
Speaker 1: Sunday morning. As you easdrop on our intimate conversation, we

1224
00:58:10,880 --> 00:58:13,720
Speaker 1: will panic, make human decisions.

1225
00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:15,200
Speaker 2: Regret the rest of the day.

1226
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:18,560
Speaker 1: We'll be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven

1227
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:22,000
Speaker 1: point thirty ish pm to recap all the misery watcher Listen,

1228
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:25,880
Speaker 1: I'm Sharper Square YouTube, like and subscribe. You can also

1229
00:58:25,920 --> 00:58:28,760
Speaker 1: download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, where you get your pods.

1230
00:58:28,800 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, state whatever you want.

1231
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:34,520
Speaker 2: Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I love you.

1232
00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:38,680
Speaker 3: Hey, let's recare for