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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: Podcas All right, here we go, spreading in the corn

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Speaker 2: ten seconds of an as.

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Speaker 3: Just go throw up to the basket, under the basket.

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Speaker 4: It's the true for the wind God the go amerracle.

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Speaker 2: I'd just's the water hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: Shuck it all. In college basketball, it's not the size

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Speaker 2: on the dog in the fight, it's the size of

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Speaker 2: the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 5: What's up the general nation? Welcome to Big Bets on

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Speaker 5: Campus Podcast. This is the weekend college basketball betting preview.

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Speaker 5: I'm stuck in with me as always is BJ Cunningham.

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Speaker 5: They have a lot to get to today. We will have,

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Speaker 5: as always, our Friday night six pack with the guys

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Speaker 5: from Three Man Weave. We will talk with Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 5: We'll check in with him shortly, and I have an

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Speaker 5: interview with Simon from the site shot Quality that we

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Speaker 5: reference a lot that we will get to towards the

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Speaker 5: end of the show before we get to and then

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Speaker 5: obviously we'll get to Saturday's card and a bunch of

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Speaker 5: spots that we have circled before we get to that. BJ.

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Speaker 5: We have ice storm warnings here. It's like your Iowa

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Speaker 5: Hawcot's got to take God think or gave our cancel tonight.

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Speaker 1: Oh thank god.

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Speaker 5: You were not looking forward to that one.

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Speaker 1: No, no, no, we typically never play good in Columbus,

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Speaker 1: so I'm very happy to get that pushed back. Even

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Speaker 1: though we did play pretty well against Penn State and

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Speaker 1: lost and overtime, it was one of those just let's

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Speaker 1: just push it back because they're looking not that great

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Speaker 1: right now.

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Speaker 5: Let's switch things up at while we wait on Colin

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Speaker 5: and we'll start with this week. Let's start with the

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Speaker 5: Friday Night sixth pack. I'll get the guys from three.

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Speaker 1: Man weave guys six picks.

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Speaker 3: It's a college hoops, a weekend six packaging.

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Speaker 4: For get it right, Get rideus.

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Speaker 5: Guys.

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Speaker 6: For my best bet, I'm taking Princeton Princeton minas one

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Speaker 6: heck up to minus two going to Cornell for my money.

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Speaker 6: The Tigers are the best team in the IVY. They

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Speaker 6: played a close game with Cornell last game, but neither

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Speaker 6: team star was in. Llewellyn was out for Princeton, Jordan

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Speaker 6: Jones was out for Cornell. They both should be back

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Speaker 6: in in this game. You gotta think Princeton wants this.

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Speaker 6: They want to complete the sweep in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 6: Cornell swept them two years ago in the regular season.

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Speaker 6: Of course, the IVY didn't play last year. There's not

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Speaker 6: a lot of travel here. There's a low home court.

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Speaker 6: In these IVY games, most have little to know fans

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Speaker 6: in the stands. Princeton has the best defensive rebounding rate

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Speaker 6: in the IVY. That combats Cornell's offensive rebounding rate, which

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Speaker 6: is also number one of the IVY. Great ball handling

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Speaker 6: from Princeton the gates Cornell's pressure, their high turnover rate defensively,

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Speaker 6: I love me some Princeton Princeton minus one, minus two.

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Speaker 4: Thank you, Kayle.

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Speaker 3: I'm staying in the IVY as well for my best bed.

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Speaker 3: I'm looking at how the Crimson headed to Brown. Not

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Speaker 3: as long travel as most travel expeditions in the IVY

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Speaker 3: are not. These two teams already played this year, and

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Speaker 3: Brown got the better of Harvard on the road in Cambridge.

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Speaker 3: But in that game they went fifteen to twenty six

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Speaker 3: from downtown, an absolute nuclear performance from deep. I just

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Speaker 3: don't think that's sustainable. I think they've been fortunate to

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Speaker 3: win games early this season. We've seen some regression from

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Speaker 3: the Bears lately. We've talked about on this program before

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Speaker 3: how it's a very athletic team. It's a long, a

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Speaker 3: fast team relative to their IVY peers, but Harvard's the exception.

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Speaker 3: They have length and speed in spades, just a litany

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Speaker 3: of six to six wings. The problem with Harvard this

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Speaker 3: season has been they don't have a front court. But

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Speaker 3: now they've got Mason Forbes back's last game, this is

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Speaker 3: his second game back. It's more of a complete roster.

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Speaker 3: Despite a few other injury concerns for the Crimson there's

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Speaker 3: enough bullets in the chamber here. It's a great spot

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Speaker 3: at a point in the season when they need wins

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Speaker 3: like blood and I think they come out with a

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Speaker 3: strong effort here and a bounce back revenge type spot

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Speaker 3: here against the Bears.

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Speaker 7: For my best bet, I'm going with Toledo a road

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Speaker 7: favorite at ball State. I'm seeing minus nine. I like

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Speaker 7: them up to minus ten. I think they win this

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Speaker 7: game by double digits. They've already beaten ball State by

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Speaker 7: thirteen at home, and that is a misleading final score.

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Speaker 7: The Rockets had a seventeen tozer run in the first

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Speaker 7: half to get up by double digits. They're up twenty

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Speaker 7: seven with six minutes to play. Gave up a pointless

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Speaker 7: sixteen to two run to make this look respectable, but

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Speaker 7: it was not. This Toledo team blows teams out. They're

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Speaker 7: four to zero against the spread as a road favorite

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Speaker 7: this year, covering by an average of nine and a

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Speaker 7: half per game, covering by nine and a half per game.

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Speaker 7: That's insane. They're ten and one against the spread in

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Speaker 7: MAC play this year. Numbers just cannot keep up with them.

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Speaker 7: They make threes, they spread you out, They've got great guards,

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Speaker 7: they knock down free throws. We love that when you're

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Speaker 7: backing a favorite, and they're highly motivated. Every interview with

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Speaker 7: any other guys, whether it's a coach with Ryan Rollins,

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Speaker 7: their star guard, they talk about the disappointment from last

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Speaker 7: year's MAC Tournament and how that's really motivating them this year.

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Speaker 7: They are not a team that's letting their foot off

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Speaker 7: the gas, especially enough to let ball State back in

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Speaker 7: this in single digits. I don't buy that the concerns

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Speaker 7: I'm sure Stucky will share. These ball State can make

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Speaker 7: threes and Toledo has some possible regression coming in their

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Speaker 7: defensive numbers. Both at the free throw line and the

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Speaker 7: three point line, and ball State had eighteen offensive rebounds

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Speaker 7: in that first game. But neither of those are enough

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Speaker 7: to keep me off of this one. I think the

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Speaker 7: rocket Ships are truly a rocket ship, and like I said,

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Speaker 7: I like them up to minus ten on Friday.

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Speaker 5: All right, thanks guys. I think Gym's at the Arizona

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Speaker 5: game tonight, jealous. That should be an electric atmosphere. Kai's

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Speaker 5: going with Princeton minus two at Cornell. Matt is going

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Speaker 5: with Harvard plus four at Brown. Jim is going with

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Speaker 5: the against the spread monster Toledo Rockets minus eight and

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Speaker 5: a half at ball State. I believe Tilto has the

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Speaker 5: best against the spread record in all of college basketball.

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Speaker 5: Before we get to which one of those we're going

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Speaker 5: to use as the six, which will we agree on?

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Speaker 5: I'll go to you BJ where you go.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to stay in the IVY League. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go Dartmouth Yale over one thirty five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Dartmouth middle of the pack offense in the IVY League,

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Speaker 1: but they shoot a ton of three as lower forty

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Speaker 1: four percent of their field goal attempts come from behind

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Speaker 1: the arc. They're going against a Yale defense that is

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Speaker 1: due for some negative aggression, especially from three point range.

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Speaker 1: They're only allowing twenty eight point six percent from behind

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Speaker 1: the arc and conference play, which is just not sustainable.

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Speaker 1: Yale also allows opponents to get the free throw line

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Speaker 1: at the second highest rate in the IVY League. In

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Speaker 1: Dartmouth is shooting over eighty percent from the charity strike,

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Speaker 1: so decent matchup for Dartmouth. The big thing in this

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Speaker 1: one is the tempo of this game is probably going

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Speaker 1: to be in the Yale's favor since they are favored

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Speaker 1: by quite a few points. Yale plays the second fastest

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Speaker 1: tempo in the conference, while Darkmuth is the slowest, so

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Speaker 1: if Yo gets out to a big league, Dartmouth's gonna

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Speaker 1: be forced to pick up their tempo. Yale top top

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Speaker 1: twenty percent in college basketball in points per possession in

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Speaker 1: post upsets. Dartmouth is three hundred and fifty first in

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Speaker 1: post up defense. Yale also gets the free throw lin

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Speaker 1: at the highest rate in the IVY League, so a

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Speaker 1: lot working against Dartmouth defensively in this matchup. Also, both

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Speaker 1: these offens are top offenses are top one hundred in

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Speaker 1: turnover percentage on offense, so I think this is a

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Speaker 1: good matchup for both offenses. So I like over one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty five and a half points.

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Speaker 5: Get an IVY over like it. I'm going to go

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Speaker 5: with what I think is the spot of the weekend,

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Speaker 5: and that's Colorado State minus two and a half at

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Speaker 5: home against San Diego State. This game is absolutely massive

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Speaker 5: for Colorado State's tournament hopes. They you know, we're looking

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Speaker 5: good to get a potential at large, and then they

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Speaker 5: dropped too straight a bad loss to UNLV at home

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Speaker 5: when Bryce Hamilton just went bonkers. And then they lost

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Speaker 5: in overtime to Wyoming when they missed a free throw

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Speaker 5: with as basically with no time left to win it,

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Speaker 5: and then they lost in overtime. So now they come

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Speaker 5: home Friday to get San Diego State and a just

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Speaker 5: a home hype spot off two losses. Oh and by

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Speaker 5: the way, they lost by thirty at San Diego State,

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Speaker 5: throwing the revenge as well. San Diego State in the

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Speaker 5: road this year, they lost to BYU, they lost to Michigan,

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Speaker 5: they beat UNLV, and they lost to Utah State. That's it.

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Speaker 5: Obviously a different team away from Beas and this isn't

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Speaker 5: Colorado State's all out max effort in front of it

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Speaker 5: all out max crowd. I don't know what is love

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Speaker 5: this team coming into the year, and I think this

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Speaker 5: is a good time to buy them at home. Another

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Speaker 5: piece of good news with Colorado State is like, all right,

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Speaker 5: if the game is close, it's funny because I said

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Speaker 5: that they just missed a free throw to win the

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Speaker 5: game there, but generally speaking, and who was who I

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Speaker 5: think that was? Rod David Roddy missed free throw and

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Speaker 5: he's like, he's a pretty good free throw shooter. But

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Speaker 5: on the season, they are tenth in the nation in

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Speaker 5: free throw shooting. We're shooting seventy nine percent. Still fleuke.

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Speaker 5: Last year they finished seventy nine point two percent, the

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Speaker 5: seventh best team in the country. So if it's close

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Speaker 5: late and you need, you know, Stevens and company to

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Speaker 5: make free throws to push you across the edge and

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Speaker 5: kind of prevent that back door. Now that I said that,

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Speaker 5: they'll they'll certainly be a back door. But I'll going

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Speaker 5: to go to Colorado State minus two and a half.

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Speaker 5: And now we have to decide on which of the

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Speaker 5: three man wi's we've we've gotten too, right, So we

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Speaker 5: got there we picked which one we liked both times.

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Speaker 5: I think including that we're gonna count those either two

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Speaker 5: wins or two losses. The six pack is now seven

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Speaker 5: and five on the year. Which one do we like

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Speaker 5: the most? But I don't see a ton of value

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Speaker 5: in Toledo.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they are against the spread monster, but and

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Speaker 5: there's certain teams issues. Is very weird. They just cover

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Speaker 5: every game. But I think not gonna turn ball State

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Speaker 5: over ball State has some advantages off the dribble that

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Speaker 5: I think that they can exploit Toledo as Ohio and Deck.

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Speaker 5: I don't know. I think that this is pretty even

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Speaker 5: if to sume close to their peak market value. I

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Speaker 5: actually like this Brown team and they've just been running

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Speaker 5: pretty poorly. So yeah, I agree that Princeton is the

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Speaker 5: better team than Cornell, and home court in the IVY

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Speaker 5: is just not worth much at all. So if I

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Speaker 5: had to choose, I would go with Princeton minus two

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Speaker 5: at Cornell.

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Speaker 1: Any thoughts, I don't really have a good feeling about

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Speaker 1: Toledo at all, and I do agree that Princeton is

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Speaker 1: the better team, So I'm going to defer to you,

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Speaker 1: and well, I guess we'll go with Princeton.

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Speaker 5: All right, there you have it. So it's a double

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Speaker 5: pick on Princeton. We have Gym's going with Toledo, Matt

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Speaker 5: is going with Harvard plus four, DJ, You're going with

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Speaker 5: an ivy over Dartmouth over, and then I'm going with

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Speaker 5: the Colorado State at home against San Diego State. It

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Speaker 5: looks like we have mister Colin Wilson who's now joining

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Speaker 5: us for his weekly check in. Mister Wilson peeking over

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Speaker 5: the fence for a couple of minutes.

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Speaker 3: Can you hear woo pig, silly Wilson?

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Speaker 5: What are you doing up? Well? Tim? I couldn't sleep,

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Speaker 5: so I thought I'd come out and squeeze my apples.

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Speaker 5: None of my business, but should you be doing that

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Speaker 5: in private?

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Speaker 4: What's up?

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Speaker 1: How are you?

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Speaker 5: How you doing good? You are one to now. Unfortunately

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Speaker 5: for you, we didn't count every SEC Big twelve game

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Speaker 5: as a win loss as I was originally gonna do.

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Speaker 5: But the SEC. One of the takeaways of the week

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Speaker 5: that I was how well the SEC fared against the Beatle.

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Speaker 5: I think they finished eight and three.

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Speaker 2: It didn't start off well with LSU getting just the

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Speaker 2: crap kicked out of them. Penson still, you know, trying

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Speaker 2: to get back there. We'll see if LAC's defense can

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Speaker 2: hold up. Maybe they are hokey, but yeah, you're right.

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Speaker 2: I think it was seven and three on the weekend

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Speaker 2: and just uh, you know, razorbacks Wildcats. It doesn't matter that.

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Speaker 4: I mean that.

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Speaker 2: If you're a Kentucky fan and you see that kind

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Speaker 2: of performance in Allen Field House, I mean you've got

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Speaker 2: to be pretty excited about the future.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's uh, you know, you have that that Tennessee Foremance,

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Speaker 5: the Kansas the blood of UNC. You know, they had

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Speaker 5: a couple other spots on the road where they had

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Speaker 5: some injuries, but look good. So I mean, yeah, we

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Speaker 5: are very excited about the Cats here. And it's my

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Speaker 5: only future team, one future in the Big Dance. All right,

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Speaker 5: so we bring you here. Are you, by the way?

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Speaker 5: Any ice issues where you are at?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we had lots of snow and ice, but I

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Speaker 2: got power, so I'm not going to complain.

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Speaker 4: College baseball odds just came out.

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Speaker 2: Arkansas is like fourth on the board, so I think

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Speaker 2: there's probably gonna be a Dallas Baptist fifty to one

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Speaker 2: come down the pipe.

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Speaker 4: They're always in the Super regionals.

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Speaker 2: Nebraska Cornhuskers should have been Arkansas and being the Supers

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Speaker 2: last year. There could be a two hundred twenty five

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Speaker 2: to one bet out there for those of you. So

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Speaker 2: hopefully sometime when the season starts, we can get a

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Speaker 2: BBOC college baseball pod out there, you know, a little month.

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Speaker 4: Of baseball in before Stuckey and I started doing football.

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Speaker 5: There's the Arkansas mentioned and you can be a little

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Speaker 5: more excited about your Hogs. That basketball team as of late,

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Speaker 5: they are definitely on the upswing. Well, the question for

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Speaker 5: you is did you bring a winner with you for Saturday?

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Speaker 5: What do you got?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna take Villanova.

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Speaker 2: I watched that game against Marquette last night and probably

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Speaker 2: the worst performance they've had on the season. Trailed by five,

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Speaker 2: trailed by thirteen, Marquette. Marquette just shot lights out. Probably

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Speaker 2: the worst game of the season Villanova has played.

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Speaker 4: I think they're going to come home. They're going to

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Speaker 4: be anywhere.

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Speaker 2: Kim Pom says seven, could be five to seven and

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Speaker 2: a half. They're going to be favorited over Yukon. It's

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Speaker 2: going to be a huge game. But there's just a

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Speaker 2: huge discrepancy. You know, Villanova, they love to shoot the

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Speaker 2: three ball. Connecticut's outside the top two hundred and perimeter defense.

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Speaker 2: They don't defend the ball, they don't defend it very well.

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Speaker 2: Connecticut is really big offensively and getting to the free

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Speaker 2: throw line, much like Arkansas. But the problem is Villanova

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Speaker 2: doesn't foul a whole bunch. They don't send their opposing

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Speaker 2: teams to the line. But just over the simple fact

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Speaker 2: that if you don't have a perimeter defense, Villanova can

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Speaker 2: absolutely tear you apart.

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Speaker 4: Where Connecticut thrives is interior paint.

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Speaker 2: In the interior, they're fourth in the nation and two

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Speaker 2: point percentage defense, and that really makes their adjusted efficiency

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Speaker 2: on defense top twenty five in the nation.

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Speaker 4: But they're outside the top two hundred and defending the perimeter.

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Speaker 2: And I think Villanova probably gonna have a chip on

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Speaker 2: their shoulder for that performance they had at Marquette.

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Speaker 4: They'll they're gonna go home. I think they defend home.

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Speaker 4: I think they're long range.

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Speaker 2: They're not gonna send Connecticut to the line. Give me,

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Speaker 2: give me Villanova.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't mind that. You should get a max

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Speaker 5: effort here after Villanova suffered. I would have liked it

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Speaker 5: a little more if Connecticut didn't if they ended up

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Speaker 5: beating Creighton, but I think that there's some exploitable matchups there.

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Speaker 5: We will see if you can move to two and out.

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Speaker 5: After a nice showing last week in the SEC Big

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Speaker 5: Twelve Challenge, good luck to your hogs, Stay dry, stay warm,

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Speaker 5: and stay with power, and we'll catch up with you

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Speaker 5: next week. Brother. All right, see you guys. Thanks Colin

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Speaker 5: for joining us. Before we get to some of the

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Speaker 5: spots we had circle for Saturday, keep take away or

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Speaker 5: two from the week that was.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what to make of the Big Twelve

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Speaker 1: right now. It's Texas. I guess Texas Tech is the

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Speaker 1: best team at that current state, which I think is

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Speaker 1: kind of a crazy statement if we go back a

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Speaker 1: month ago before they played Baylor, Kansas is an absolute

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Speaker 1: roller coaster right now. Obviously they had injuries and somehow

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Speaker 1: beat Iowa State, but their performance against Kentucky was really bad.

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Speaker 1: This past weekend, Baylor almost lost to West Virginia. I

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Speaker 1: know they had a couple guys out, but it's one

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Speaker 1: of these leagues that I think once we come to

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Speaker 1: the conference at Turney time, with all these these three

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Speaker 1: teams basically looking vulnerable, especially on the road. It could

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Speaker 1: be a potential play on somebody down the border in

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Speaker 1: a long shot to make a run on these teams,

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Speaker 1: because all of them look vulnerable. So a team like

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Speaker 1: Texas or West Virginia or TCU I think could potentially

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Speaker 1: provide some value come Conference Atturney time. And I just

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Speaker 1: don't know if Marquette or Providence are ever going to

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Speaker 1: come back down to Earth. I have a lot of

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Speaker 1: spots circled in the future for those two teams, and

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Speaker 1: we'll see if the regression monster ever hits either of them.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I agree there. I think I need to see

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Speaker 5: Beard has to figure something out. There's just something missing

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Speaker 5: with that Texas lineup. So I'm curious to see how

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Speaker 5: Texas plays, to see if they're worth another hit a

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Speaker 5: big twelve championship future on them. Last year going into

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Speaker 5: the Conference storm, I think there were maybe five or

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Speaker 5: six to one, so I could see them having value,

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Speaker 5: But I need to see Beard. I just need to

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Speaker 5: see more from more consistency from that roster, specifically against

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Speaker 5: top tier competition. Right like, it just hasn't been great. Now,

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Speaker 5: that was an awful spot, right like, just one of

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Speaker 5: the best home court advantages in god bestball in one

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Speaker 5: of the best home court advantaged spots, which is ultimately

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Speaker 5: what kept me off Texas even on the opener of six.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, there's still something that's just lacking with Texas.

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Speaker 5: My big thing is I still I haven't picked a

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Speaker 5: winner in weeks. So I guess we could talk about slumps.

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Speaker 5: It's always a good topic that I talk about because

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Speaker 5: I think that it's it's and I always say this,

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Speaker 5: it's what makes it doesn't might necessarily make you a

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Speaker 5: winning better, but it's what makes you prevents you from

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Speaker 5: being a complete losing better. And it's how you deal

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Speaker 5: with slumps. And you know, we're gonna talk with signs

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Speaker 5: from shock quality later. There are so many things you

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Speaker 5: can do while you're going through a slumping to double check, Okay,

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Speaker 5: is it my numbers, is it the spots that I'm

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Speaker 5: looking for? Or am I just running back? Same thing?

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Speaker 5: When you're on a really good streak, right that some

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Speaker 5: of my best streaks I've been just getting you're just

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Speaker 5: getting really lucky. Like when you're running really hot and

363
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Speaker 5: everything is sitting. That means you're probably seeing things well

364
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Speaker 5: and you're getting really lucky. You're getting the late back doors,

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Speaker 5: you're you know, you're coming back from double digits down

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Speaker 5: the opposite. The opposite is true for me right now,

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Speaker 5: I having some bad spots and then you know, getting

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Speaker 5: back door like Loyal or Chicago last night blowing double

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Speaker 5: digit leads, et cetera, et cetera. But you can look

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Speaker 5: at a couple of things. CLV you want to track this,

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Speaker 5: you know I track you know it is. You want

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Speaker 5: to take it a little more serious. Closing line value.

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Speaker 5: If you're getting that, it's a pretty good predictive signal.

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Speaker 5: You know, you go to a site like shot quality, Okay,

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Speaker 5: if what should the adjusted final score get to? This

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Speaker 5: football too, there's fluke turnovers. There's a lot of variants

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Speaker 5: when when you're betting sports, especially in the short term,

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Speaker 5: and you know, lucky unlucky. I work every bet and

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Speaker 5: I do it the next day. Lucky or unlucky. I

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Speaker 5: think said someone tweet them and say, you're like negative

381
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Speaker 5: fifteen with unlucky losses this year. I'm I think it

382
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Speaker 5: was at thirteen or fourteen. Same difference. Sometimes you're getting

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Speaker 5: really lucky, and then if you're on a bad streak

384
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Speaker 5: and none of those things are happening, then you're like,

385
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Speaker 5: all right, well, maybe I got to look at my numbers.

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Speaker 5: I'm not. But the most important thing is you just

387
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Speaker 5: have to ride them out there. You're always gonna have

388
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Speaker 5: bad streaks. I've been betting college basketball almost daily for

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Speaker 5: since two thousand and three. Do you know any bad

390
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Speaker 5: streaks I've had. I mean, I've had college football team.

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Speaker 5: I had a college football season I didn't have one

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Speaker 5: single winning weekend one. I had a college basketball season

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Speaker 5: where I lost forty two units. So they happen. Sometimes

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Speaker 5: it's not you're you have to bet. You could have

395
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Speaker 5: a You're gonna have a losing month, you could have

396
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Speaker 5: a losing season. I still losing seasons in sports, losing months,

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Speaker 5: losing weeks, and then you're gonna have times when you're

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Speaker 5: losing and then everything's going against you. And if you know,

399
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Speaker 5: for me, it sucks the most for people that are

400
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Speaker 5: following me. The money, that's what drives me crazy, and

401
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Speaker 5: I spend and mainly just wanting to win. It's that's

402
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Speaker 5: my drive every single second that I'm awake. But I'm

403
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Speaker 5: used to the swings. I can I take them, and

404
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Speaker 5: I know that they're gonna come, and I just will

405
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Speaker 5: shoot and fire through them. And and meanwhile, wile I'm

406
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Speaker 5: looking at all the things that I just mentioned, but

407
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Speaker 5: if you can't handle them, the last thing you can

408
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Speaker 5: you should be doing is chasing, uh, just trying to

409
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Speaker 5: get your best bounces back. And you're gonna lose sometimes,

410
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Speaker 5: and you're gonna have bad luck sometimes, and if you

411
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Speaker 5: can't handle it, you gotta start betting less, or just

412
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Speaker 5: take a couple of days off, right, take a couple

413
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Speaker 5: of days away from betting, clear your head. You can

414
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Speaker 5: always you can always look at this is a trick

415
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Speaker 5: that I tell people that have trouble doing this, that

416
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 5: were like problem betters, right, that would chase and do

417
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Speaker 5: write down what you what would have bet and you

418
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Speaker 5: could root against that if you want sweats like, oh

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Speaker 5: I would have had a losing day. People, you're gonna

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Speaker 5: do that regardless, and then you know you had a

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Speaker 5: day where you have a day where oh wow, I

422
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Speaker 5: would have went one and nine and I didn't bet,

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Speaker 5: and then you'll feel a little better about jumping back in.

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Speaker 5: So you know, if you're ever dealing with a slide

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Speaker 5: and the mental aspect of I dm of people all

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Speaker 5: the time that are like that, happy to lend an

427
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Speaker 5: ear and my advice. Another thing with tracking, which is

428
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Speaker 5: so important why the Action Network app is great. You

429
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Speaker 5: don't have to do it manually, but I've been doing

430
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Speaker 5: it manually and on the Action that we got forever

431
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Speaker 5: is you can go back and you can look at

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Speaker 5: previous slides and be like, it's okay this it feels

433
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 5: like the sky's falling. And you go into every when

434
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:12,399
Speaker 5: you're in one of these sobs, you go into every

435
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:14,120
Speaker 5: night with just dread, you're like, and then every game

436
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 5: you're like, it's gonna the ball's gonna bounce the other way.

437
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,920
Speaker 5: But if you go back and look, you go back

438
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,399
Speaker 5: and you go, wow, look at this horrible slide, and

439
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 5: then it ended up being okay. Yeah, January I went

440
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 5: sixty sixty six and three, and I went back and

441
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 5: looked at last January I was sixty one, sixty seven

442
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 5: and four, so like that was the exact same place.

443
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 5: And then had a killer February March and everything was okay.

444
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 5: So it gives you, you know, you can frame these

445
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 5: kind of runs and betting because they're always going to

446
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 5: be there. So hopefully we can get a turn around

447
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 5: for all those following usually do and we grind on.

448
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 5: Do you have any advice on slumps and how to

449
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:55,400
Speaker 5: deal with them?

450
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 1: The biggest thing, at least just for myself and what

451
00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,719
Speaker 1: I've learned over the years, is to just constantly keep

452
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:06,160
Speaker 1: questioning yourself and keep listening to other people. I'm I'll

453
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:07,879
Speaker 1: be the first one to say that I don't know everything,

454
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 1: and everything that I've learned over the years is because

455
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 1: I've learned it from people that are smart than me,

456
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,919
Speaker 1: like you, for example, and learning that the ways that

457
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 1: I've been doing, you know, betting and everything, if I

458
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: am losing, I have to look at it and I say, Okay,

459
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 1: did I, like you said, did I just get really

460
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 1: lucky for an entire season? Does my system actually work?

461
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 1: Or the projections that I'm using do they actually work.

462
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,199
Speaker 1: I've had to question that many times for you know,

463
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 1: from baseball to football, whatever it is, and then seeing

464
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 1: other people what they're doing, constantly comparing to what they have,

465
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 1: and honestly just having some humility and not thinking that,

466
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 1: you know, if you're betting and you're winning, not thinking

467
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 1: that you're the you know, the greatest vetter on earth,

468
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 1: but constantly say, okay, even if I am winning, is

469
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 1: what I'm doing correct you know, looking at those shock

470
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 1: quality numbers and constantly questioning, am I doing this correctly?

471
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 1: Am I getting putting myself in the best position? And,

472
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, is the biggest indicator of that. If

473
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 1: you are constantly beating the market, you eventually you've almost

474
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 1: already won if you've beaten the market by a few points,

475
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 1: because over time, you are going to be positive essentially,

476
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 1: if you are constantly getting what we call expected value

477
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,919
Speaker 1: on every single bet. So the slumps are hard. I

478
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,439
Speaker 1: understand that I've gone through plenty tough slumps in my

479
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: life as well, and kind of currently in one right

480
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 1: now with college basketball, and then you know it's starting

481
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 1: to kind of turn the other way. But like you said,

482
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 1: if you're constantly getting putting yourself in the right position

483
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 1: and making the right bets, if you look back on

484
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 1: the shock quality numbers and you know, it says, hey,

485
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 1: maybe you should have won. That Statistical regression always finds

486
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 1: its mean. I know it's hard to see when you

487
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 1: go through these stretches, but water will always find its

488
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 1: level when it comes to these this type of regressions.

489
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 1: So I would just tell everybody out there, like you said,

490
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 1: if you are losing and you can't handle the swings

491
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 1: bet less, you know, take a few nights off. Obviously,

492
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 1: don't chase those type of numbers. But if you're constantly betting,

493
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 1: you know, the same amount of money on every single

494
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 1: bet over time, that's just the Russian will finance mean.

495
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 1: And you know, some seasons you won't win, but over

496
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 1: a long length of time, if you're constantly getting the

497
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 1: best number, you eventually, in the long run, you will win.

498
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,239
Speaker 1: And that's I think what people have to to look at.

499
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 1: It's hard to see in the short term, but just

500
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 1: know that in the long term, if you're getting the

501
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: best position, you eventually will be positive.

502
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 5: Yeah. Yeah, there are a lot of tools out there,

503
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 5: Action Network that fall you know, track your picks from there.

504
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 5: I'll give you a lot of insight without having to

505
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 5: do anything except tracking your bets. All right, let's move

506
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,880
Speaker 5: on to Saturday and try to find some winners by

507
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 5: low spot. I'll let you kick it off.

508
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,400
Speaker 1: What do you got, Uh, let's go West Virginia at

509
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 1: home taking on Texas Tech. Coming off that emotional win

510
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 1: against Texas, this is a good spot for West Virginia,

511
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 1: who's lost five straight. They almost upset Baylor in Waco

512
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 1: on Monday night. They actually led by ten early in

513
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 1: the second half, but ended up collapsing. They've played a

514
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 1: very difficult schedule during their losing streak. They lost to

515
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 1: Kansas Baylor twice, Texas Tech on the road, which they

516
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: should have actually covered and they should actually covered on

517
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 1: the road in Lubbock, and then Oklahoma and Arkansas. Texas

518
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 1: Tech didn't handle the press very well the first time

519
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 1: that they faced West Virginia. Their bottom half college Basketball

520
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: in press offense, and West Virginia is also sixteenth in

521
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 1: turno percentage, while Texas Tech is around two hundred and

522
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 1: fortieth offensively. And you know, Texas has had a ton

523
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 1: of fortunate bounces, especially in that Texas game. O Banner

524
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 1: had two bricks that ended up going in. In the

525
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 1: game against Texas, they only allowed the Longhorns to shoot

526
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: twenty eight percent from behind the arc. It's a team

527
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 1: that's kind of due for a little bit of negative aggression.

528
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 1: Ken Palm has said Texas Tech minus five. I would

529
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 1: love to get West Virginia at plus five, but I

530
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: would play them down to plus four. I think it's

531
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 1: just a good spot for them. Mount years to potentially

532
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: either end their losing streak or play Texas Tech really

533
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: tough at home.

534
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I just won't circle to a great Bilo cell

535
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,959
Speaker 5: hot spot. West Virginia has seen a lot of these defenses.

536
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 5: These no middle they have some guards who can shoot

537
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 5: and score consistently and get hot you know, from the

538
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 5: mid ranger outside and McNeil and Sherman. The key is

539
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 5: in West Virginia. We went to Texas Tech. West Virginia

540
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,199
Speaker 5: is also one of the best film court advantages in

541
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 5: all college basketball. This should be a rally environment and

542
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 5: they need this game. They're sitting right probably like I

543
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 5: think on brack of Matrix on like the twelve line,

544
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 5: and they absolutely need it. And Texas Tech coming off

545
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 5: that emotional win. We've seen them on the road, you know,

546
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 5: slip up a couple of times. They haven't been that

547
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 5: impressive on the road. They did win at Baylor, but

548
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 5: there are other road games this year. They lost their Providence,

549
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 5: they lost at Iowa State, and they lost at Kansas

550
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 5: State and then at Kansas So they haven't been let's say,

551
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 5: I mean, they're one in four on the road. We

552
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,640
Speaker 5: had some good teams, but they haven't been a juggernaut,

553
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:01,959
Speaker 5: and obviously they have one of the best home court

554
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,399
Speaker 5: advantages in college basketball as those West Virginia. The key though,

555
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 5: Tad Sherman, he's in concussion protocol. He has to play.

556
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 5: They need him specifically for this matchup. He was cooking

557
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 5: against Bail before he got They might have won that

558
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 5: game if he didn't go out. He got hit in

559
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 5: the face, no fulcohol, and he's in concushion protocol. Huggins

560
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 5: didn't offer any sort of insight that. He just said, well,

561
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 5: we don't know as you would expect from him, so

562
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 5: keep your eye on his status. He's massive, and uh yeah,

563
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 5: if he gets announced in, it's just a great spot

564
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 5: regardless what made the line would adjust without him. But

565
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 5: I really like it if he's in, and I would

566
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 5: imagine if there's any chance he's he's gonna try to

567
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,239
Speaker 5: give it, give it a go. All right, I'll go

568
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 5: with Florida State against Wake Forest. They've lost three straight

569
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 5: as of right now, I think they're out of the tournament.

570
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,719
Speaker 5: That if the season ended to that, and I think

571
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 5: per bracket matrix they're out, which is crazy to say

572
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 5: for Florida State. They've lost three in a Rowo and

573
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 5: this is just a hype home spot against Wake Forest, who,

574
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 5: by the way, they lost revenge Angle too. They lost

575
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 5: to at Wake by twenty two. I think shot quality

576
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 5: made that game seventy five point one to seventy four

577
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 5: point nine. It's basically a dead even game. Florida State's

578
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 5: also shooting just thirty one percent from three in acc play.

579
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 5: They're allowing opponents to a played a thirty nine point

580
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 5: five percent, So I think that they're They're fourteenth in

581
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 5: the league, and both think there should could be some

582
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 5: a little correction there. It's not a vintage just Florida

583
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 5: State perimeter defense, but i'd expect, you know, the home

584
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 5: hype spot must win, that their perimeter d will be

585
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 5: as good as you'll see it all year. Similar when

586
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 5: they beat Duke at home and everyone just everyone continues

587
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 5: to make every single open shot against Florida State, and

588
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 5: I don't think that will necessarily continue. They rank three

589
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty fifth nationally three hundred fifty eighteens in

590
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,479
Speaker 5: points per possession allowed on unguarded catch and shoot jumpers

591
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 5: in the half court. I can't imagine that last Wake

592
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 5: Forest's turnover iss They're fourteenth in the ACC in conference play.

593
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 5: Florida State can exploit that. They can. They're gonna press it.

594
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 5: They pressed the second highest rate in the country. Lake

595
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 5: Forest meh against the press this year and uh yeah,

596
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 5: I mean funn of State. They's had some injuries, they

597
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 5: lost Osborne, they lost another seven footer. But I think

598
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 5: this is just a great spot for a desperate young

599
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 5: team at home, sell High, where are you going?

600
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with one of the biggest hold your

601
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 1: nose plays on the entire Saturday board. I'm gonna sell

602
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: High in Auburn on the road at Georgia on Saturday.

603
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 1: Auburn's twenty one and one. I don't think they're that

604
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: as good as the record indicates. This is an ultimate

605
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: sandwich spot for them. They coming off that emotional rivalry

606
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 1: win against Alabama where they put up one hundred points,

607
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 1: and like Colin already mentioned, coming to Budwalton Arena on

608
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: Tuesday night to play his Razorbacks. Georgia has been a

609
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 1: tad unlucky. They're due for a little positive aggression. Defensively.

610
00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 1: They actually have a positive adjusted a fish and see

611
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 1: differential on shot quality when they have round minus three

612
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 1: on Ken Pump. Georgia did lose to Auburn by twenty

613
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 1: three a few weeks ago, but they did hold the

614
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 1: time it.

615
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 5: Was a plus twenty two and a half missed a

616
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 5: free throw to cover.

617
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they did hold Auburn to ten of

618
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 1: thirty six from behind the arc, and they just allowed

619
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: too many offensive rebounds and turned the ball over too

620
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: many times. Georgia, speaking of free throws, does get to

621
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 1: the free throw line at the fourteent highest rate in

622
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: the country. Well, Auburn is two hundred and fiftieth in

623
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: free throw rate on defense, so this is a big

624
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,479
Speaker 1: time hold your nose spot. Ken Palm has it at

625
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 1: Auburn minus nineteen, so I was I'd love it at that,

626
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: but I'll play any Georgia anything plus sixteen or better.

627
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, if I can get nineteen twenty, I think I

628
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 5: would have to join you on the spot alone. Really

629
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 5: high back door risk as well as we saw in

630
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 5: the first batch up. Unfortunately, they Auburn wouldn't let him

631
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 5: get a layup. I thought it was a flager, they

632
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 5: didn't call it the flager and then missed free throw.

633
00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 5: So uh yeah. The one thing that scares me Georgia's

634
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 5: transition defense is they're in the one percentile nationally. There

635
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 5: that's scary against Auburn, but yeah, the number and the spot,

636
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 5: you know you're not asking them to win or lose

637
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 5: by single digits. I don't hate it. Sell High. I'm

638
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 5: gonna go Michigan State. There's seventeen to four shot quality,

639
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 5: but it has them at twelve and nine. The team

640
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 5: that's stolen a bunch of wins late and they didn't

641
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 5: know they did again at Maryland in a game a

642
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 5: thick shot quality of them losing. They won on a

643
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 5: last second layup. And they have a Tuesday matchup with Wisconsin,

644
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 5: huge game of the Big ten standings. I think the

645
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 5: market is just overvaluing this Michigan State team, which is

646
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 5: just it's just not you know, Christie's playing a lot better,

647
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 5: but it's not the most talented offensive team in the country.

648
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 5: They're also running really well from three in league play

649
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 5: on offense to end defense. I think there's some aggression

650
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 5: coming there. And Rutgers at home has been just a

651
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 5: different team at the rack. We should have a good

652
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 5: crowd in Piscataway. I'm going to sell Michigan State, who

653
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 5: like I think six of their last seven of games

654
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 5: have been shot quality losses. Just crazy, yeah, even at

655
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 5: Michigan games. Wild all right, home dog, Home dog Saturday.

656
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 5: What do you got?

657
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 1: Well, we're on the same page once again because I

658
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: had Rutgers circled as my home dog against Michigan State.

659
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pluck a little staff from your article that

660
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 1: basically Michigan State first in the Big Ten and three

661
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 1: point field goal percentage and free throw percentage on both

662
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: offense and defense. That is one of those indicators that's

663
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 1: just not sustainable. Also, shot quality tracks rim and three

664
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: point rate, which is essentially the two most valuable shots

665
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: in half court offense. Michigan State is three hundred and

666
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: nineteenth in that category, meaning they're just relying on a

667
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 1: lot of mid range jumpers more than they should in

668
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 1: half court offense. Michigan State also spends a ton of

669
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 1: time in transition, but they're not really effective. They're bottom

670
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: forty percent of college basketball and points per possess. Rutgers

671
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 1: is fifth in the Big Ten in defensive transition. So

672
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,719
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I think this is a great spot

673
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 1: to fade Michigan State once again. Ken Palm, I believe

674
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 1: he has it at Michigan State minus five. Love it

675
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 1: at that, but I'll play Rutgers down two plus three.

676
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 5: All right, let's go to any other spots. I'll start.

677
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 5: I had Indiana. This is probably the sandwich spot of

678
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 5: the day. And Illinois comes off that huge win against

679
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 5: Wisconsin and they have a revenge date with Purdue on Tuesday.

680
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 5: Before that, they have to go to Assembly Hall. Indiana,

681
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 5: it was nine to three against the spread at home

682
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 5: this year, has already beat Purdue, already beat Ohio State

683
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 5: at home. I think they get Illinois. I think they'll

684
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 5: be a really short home dog. They don't rob Fittessy,

685
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 5: won't play. I heard a little bit of the defense end,

686
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 5: but I think they have enough depth to compensate. I

687
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 5: really like how they finally got a road win and

688
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 5: cover in conference. I think they can carry over that

689
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 5: momento from last Saturday. By the way, they say had

690
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 5: a week off to prepare and rest. Meanwhile, Illinois played

691
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 5: Wisconsin on when day. Hoosiers also excellent at defending in

692
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 5: the post ninety third percentile PERCENTERGY. That's huge against Kofee

693
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 5: and company, and I think Indiana can get some easy

694
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:12,840
Speaker 5: buckets in transition, which will keep the crowd really engaged.

695
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 5: They're actually top ten in the country and points per

696
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 5: possession in transition percentergy Illinois transition defense extremely shaky twenty

697
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 5: seven percent TILE. So yeah, I think just the spot here,

698
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 5: I mean, after Wisconsin, before Purdue at Assembly Hall post

699
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 5: defenses there, I could see KOFE getting into foul trouble.

700
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 5: It just screams Indiana home win in a hype spot.

701
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,399
Speaker 5: Give me the Hoosiers. What do you got?

702
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 1: I'll go Texas at home against Iowa State. This is

703
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 1: a wonderful revenge spot for Texas. Obviously, they came off

704
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: that emotional rivalry loss in Lublick. I don't think you

705
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,239
Speaker 1: can really blame them. That was just an insane atmosphere

706
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 1: and all the off the court things with Chris Beard

707
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,720
Speaker 1: and everything. It was just a horrible, horrible spot for Texas.

708
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,760
Speaker 1: So I can't really blame them for, you know, losing

709
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:10,399
Speaker 1: by double digits in Lubbock this game though, Iowa State

710
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: beat Texas back in aames on January fifteenth by nine,

711
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 1: but the shot quality was basically fifty to fifty Calsher

712
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 1: just made a ton of ridiculous shots Iowa State shot

713
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: forty five percent from behind the arc and they only

714
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,280
Speaker 1: shoot about thirty two percent for the season, and Texas

715
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 1: just turned the ball over twenty times, So it was

716
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: just a really really bad game for them. The key

717
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 1: in this game for Texas is they got to control

718
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 1: the pace. They play one of the slowest paces in

719
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,320
Speaker 1: the country that three hundred and forty seventh in adjustin

720
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 1: tempo and they're seventh in the country in points for

721
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 1: possession allowed in half court defense. Iowa States in the

722
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 1: bottom thirty percent of college basketball and points for possession

723
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 1: in half court but they're very good in transition. Texas

724
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 1: should be able to dominate inside on Iowa State in

725
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,879
Speaker 1: conference play. They Iowa State's allowing close to fifty seven

726
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,399
Speaker 1: percent from inside the arc. They have the word free

727
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 1: throw rate allowed in the Big Twelve, Texas third and

728
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 1: free throwing in the conference and making a little over

729
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 1: seventy seven percent of their free throws is just a

730
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 1: good spot for Texas coming off that loss. Hopefully they

731
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 1: can find their offense after a kable dud performances against

732
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:16,919
Speaker 1: Texas Tech and Tennessee, who are two of the better

733
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 1: defenses in the country. Ken Palm has its at Texas

734
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 1: minus six. I would love it at that, but I'll

735
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 1: play Longhorns anything up to minus seven and a half.

736
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 5: I'm gonna mention Tulsa. They are going to Temple a

737
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 5: little revenge spot here. Temple has been playing a little

738
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 5: better of late, but Tulsa. There's seven and thirteen in

739
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 5: the other They're in the bottom of the AAC. There

740
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 5: one in eight in the league Playever, we think they're

741
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 5: a lot better than the record indicates. They're one in

742
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 5: eight in games decided by five points or less. They

743
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 5: have five conference losses by a combined seventeen points against

744
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 5: Memphis twice, Houston, Temple, and FMU. They've had some crazy

745
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 5: second half comebacks, but they also led by fifteen and

746
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 5: the second half against Memphis. And opponents have been shooting

747
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 5: thirty seven point seven percent from three on the year

748
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 5: against Tulsa, that's three hundred and thirtieth in the country

749
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:18,840
Speaker 5: in conference play. That's thirty eight point seven. Zone heavy offense.

750
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:24,879
Speaker 5: This defense, excuse me and just look Dave and it's

751
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 5: it's that's even worse because they give up a ton

752
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 5: of threes in their zone and they give up I

753
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 5: think the three hundred and fortieth for as far as

754
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:33,799
Speaker 5: three point rate, they rank three hundred and fortieth in

755
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 5: the country. Should see a downward trend. And what gives

756
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 5: me a lot of confidence is Frank Kith has been

757
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 5: there forever. If you look back at his defenses at Tulsa,

758
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,800
Speaker 5: like here of the percentages thirty three point three, thirty

759
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 5: five point nine, thirty five point nine, thirty four point three,

760
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 5: thirty two point eight, twenty nine point nine, thirty four

761
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 5: point one average like right around thirty three and a

762
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 5: half percent. No single season above thirty six, and they're

763
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 5: at close to thirty eight to thirty nine in league play,

764
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 5: So I think you should see some regression there. Temple

765
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 5: not a good zone offense. They are you know, not

766
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 5: good in isolation. They're not great shooting team. So I

767
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 5: think that this is a pretty good matchup for Tulsa,

768
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 5: who I think should grind this game and stay and

769
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 5: see Kempom has this, Yeah, Tulsa plus five, which I

770
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:24,320
Speaker 5: would love to get. Temple is I mean, they shoot

771
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 5: thirty percent from three on their twenty nine percent in

772
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 5: league play, and that's not a regression thing. That's uh,

773
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 5: they can't shoot. They just don't have great shooters on

774
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 5: that team, and you know they lost Khalif Battle, who

775
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 5: was their their best shooter. And on the other side,

776
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 5: Temple in conference plays a lot teams are only shooting

777
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 5: twenty six point seven percent from three, so you could

778
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 5: see some regression in that aspect. The first matchup, Temple

779
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 5: ended up winning sixty nine to sixty four, even though

780
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 5: Tulsa led by five in the second half of the

781
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 5: under twelve time out, and it Tulsa shot six of

782
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:06,359
Speaker 5: twenty three from three to twenty six percent. And then

783
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,919
Speaker 5: you know Temple was at thirty five percent for three

784
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 5: and eighty three percent from the line and they ended

785
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 5: up winning by five. So I think it's a good

786
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 5: spot here to get Tulsa after their loss to Wichita State.

787
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 5: I think we have a good shot to win this game.

788
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: You got anything else, Yeah, I wouldn't be my I

789
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 1: wouldn't be doing my duty as an Iowan and des

790
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 1: moin Native if I didn't talk about in Northern Iowa

791
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 1: versus Drake on Saturday, I like Drake in the spot

792
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 1: at home with the NAP Center. You and I has

793
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:36,879
Speaker 1: been just shooting the lights out in conference played thirty

794
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 1: six percent from behind the arc, fifty six percent from

795
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 1: two point range over eighty percent from the free throw line.

796
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:44,879
Speaker 1: They're due to come back down to earth a little bit.

797
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 1: This is a kind of a revenge spot for them.

798
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 1: They had an epic collapse and cedar falls against Drake

799
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 1: on January twenty second. They're up ten with three and

800
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 1: a half minutes left to go, ended up losing in overtime,

801
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 1: and Drake was without one of their best players, Tank Hampell.

802
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 1: With that being said, handful is back Drake.

803
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 5: I think Drake won that game. Drake won that game.

804
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 5: I think, yeah they did.

805
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 1: They get Yeah, Drake won by six or seven in overtime,

806
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:08,319
Speaker 1: But yeah, it was a netpit collapsed by by you

807
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: and I. Uh Hample's back for Drake and they look

808
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 1: much much better, adding another score to their lineup. They

809
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:20,680
Speaker 1: beat Loyola this past Sunday by nine at the NAP Center.

810
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 5: That follow up winning at Indiana State was really impressive after.

811
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, you and I is just allowing teams to get

812
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:30,360
Speaker 1: to the rim against them. Drake shoots over sixty percent

813
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 1: from inside the arc day in that last matchup, they

814
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,879
Speaker 1: only went six of twenty six from three point range,

815
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 1: when they usually shoot thirty five percent for the season.

816
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 1: So this is a rare spot where it's almost like

817
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 1: you're you're selling high in both teams because you and

818
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 1: I just shot the lights out against Bradley on on

819
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 1: Wednesday Nights. But with Drake having Hample back, adding another

820
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:51,879
Speaker 1: scoring option the U and I defense, which is third

821
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 1: to last in the NBC in points per possessional allowed

822
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:56,839
Speaker 1: in half court defense, I think this is a good

823
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 1: spot for Drake at home in Des Moines. So I

824
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 1: like the Bulldogs. Ken Pom has it at minus three,

825
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 1: so I love the Bulldogs and minus threet but all

826
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 1: playoffs minus four.

827
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:08,240
Speaker 5: Talk some of the market games. You have Baylor Kansas,

828
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 5: but there's a lot of uncertainy on who's going to play,

829
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 5: so you will have a preview for that game up

830
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 5: on Action Network app a Bogie status unknown. He went

831
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 5: into the COVID protocols. Baylor has a bunch of injuries

832
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 5: you want to keep your eye on. But just so

833
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 5: many super games on Saturday, Kentucky Alabama, I'm gonna be

834
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 5: tempted to take Alabama as a home dog. They just

835
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:27,759
Speaker 5: in these home wipe spots. I mean, it's a team

836
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,760
Speaker 5: that has wins just the most impressive wins in the country.

837
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 5: I think they might be getting like three three and

838
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 5: a half here. The offensive glass for Kentucky does scare

839
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 5: me against Alabama. But if you look, I mean, Kentucky

840
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 5: offensive rebounding and league player hasn't been that great. You

841
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 5: still have Shebwey in there. The transition offense of Kentucky

842
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 5: scares me a bit. And you know what, excuse the

843
00:41:57,120 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 5: Alabama tradition defense Kentucky. I think it is getting on

844
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:03,279
Speaker 5: tradition in the second highest frequency in the country. But

845
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:07,879
Speaker 5: this Alabama team is they're gonna look, they've been great

846
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:09,720
Speaker 5: in these home wipe spots. It's gonna be an electric

847
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 5: atmosphere against Kentucky. They're gonna make shots eventually as a team,

848
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 5: and you know, they shoot threes at a ridiculous right.

849
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 5: They're forty eight percent three point rate in conference. They're

850
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,280
Speaker 5: forty seven percent on this season, which is top twenty.

851
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 5: It's a high variance team. But they're only shooting thirty

852
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 5: one percent on the year, twenty eight percent in conference play.

853
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:35,280
Speaker 5: So I think that this could be a good spot.

854
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 5: I mean, Kentucky's been scary in these great spots, but

855
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 5: I could see Alabama pulling this out after that, uh,

856
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 5: really embarrassing Auburn loss. Any thoughts on Alabama Kentucky.

857
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's I'm very very interesting to see where

858
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:54,440
Speaker 1: this line ends up because what happens typically with Alabama

859
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 1: because they have such a good home court advantage and

860
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 1: they played so well at home over the past two

861
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:02,320
Speaker 1: years in NATO. It's, you know, against Auburn, they opened

862
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 1: around to pick them, and then you know, it closed

863
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:06,960
Speaker 1: at minus three against LSU when they were on their

864
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 1: high it opened around to pick them and closed at

865
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 1: Alabama minus three and a half. So I wouldn't be

866
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 1: surprised to see it just open up at straight you know,

867
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 1: Kentucky minus three. But I don't know, Maybe I'm crazy,

868
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:23,319
Speaker 1: but there's a potential Alabama could be favored where this

869
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 1: line closes and all those matchup problems that you mentioned

870
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:30,839
Speaker 1: against Kentucky. I might It's tough because Albham has lost

871
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 1: twice in the last two years at home, once to Auburn,

872
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 1: and last year they lost in the non conference to

873
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,360
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky, which is I didn't realize that, which was,

874
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 1: you know, kind of shocking to look at. But yeah,

875
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be hard for me if especially if

876
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 1: you're getting Alabama plus three plus three and a half

877
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 1: to not take the tide given how good they've been

878
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 1: at home. But I am very interesting to see where

879
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 1: this line ends up in Kentucky potentially becomes a underdog.

880
00:43:57,840 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 1: I think I might have to take the Wildcasts because

881
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 1: that before Mormans that Kansas does give me a lot

882
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 1: of confidence in them after especially after they lost to Auburn.

883
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 1: Obviously they had some injuries with that, but when Kentucky's

884
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:12,439
Speaker 1: finally fully healthy playing on the road against a good team,

885
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 1: they you know, destroying Kansas gives me confidence. So I'll

886
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: see where this line ends up. If Kentucky somehow becomes

887
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 1: an underdog, which I don't think they will, I'll play them.

888
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: But other than that, I'm probably gonna pass. Given all

889
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:32,840
Speaker 1: these matchup issues for Alabama.

890
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 5: Duke North Carolina, which is the most storied rivalry and

891
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 5: arguably of all sports, that will headline the day Carolina

892
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 5: swept this season series last year, I believe. Let me

893
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 5: double check before I say that. Yeah, they Duke lost

894
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 5: ninety one to eighty seven at home, and then they

895
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 5: lost ninety one to seventy three on the road. This

896
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 5: is obviously a much better Duke team. Those two teams

897
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:59,680
Speaker 5: were pretty similar last year in both games. Last year,

898
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 5: Duke fans will recall uh that Caleb Love went nuts

899
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 5: in both games. It's a really fascinating game because if

900
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 5: you look at Carolina, who just stole a game at

901
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 5: Louisville on eight. That was I don't know how their

902
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 5: their resume looked, but that was when they still don't know.

903
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 1: I'm still really mad about that game because Loisville. I'm

904
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 1: still very mad. That's one of the worst refereeing performances

905
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 1: in overtime on.

906
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:29,319
Speaker 5: The road too. It wasn't like he was in Chapel Hill.

907
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:32,799
Speaker 5: But if you look at North Carolina this year, they've

908
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 5: had some duds, specifically on defense, but they've all come

909
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 5: away from home. You know, one of the things that

910
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 5: I like about this North Carolina team of late, you know,

911
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 5: Leaky Black is playing a lot better on the defensive

912
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 5: side of the ball. He's given these more confident offensive

913
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 5: offensively as well, say with r J. Davison. That's they're

914
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 5: able to kind of not put as much on Caleb

915
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 5: Love and let him do his thing. The focal point

916
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 5: is obviously going to be bay Hot underneath, and how

917
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:02,320
Speaker 5: does Mark Williams match up with him. That's going to

918
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 5: be a huge storyline here on the other side of

919
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 5: the ball. The question for Duke is for Carolina defensively,

920
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 5: is who's going to cover Banchero? Like is it manic?

921
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:17,439
Speaker 5: Because if so, that's a nightmare matchup that Pacherock could

922
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 5: really take advantage of. If you don't, though, it's like

923
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 5: you have aj Griffin, you got to worry about. Two

924
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 5: is hitting fifty percent from three. So that's one of

925
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:30,879
Speaker 5: the matchup problems that Duke poses. One of the things

926
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 5: if you look at this from a matchup perspective, is

927
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 5: that Carolina almost annually will dominate the offensive glass. It

928
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 5: used to be more pronounced than it is now, but

929
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 5: they're still very strong their fourth in league play on

930
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 5: the offensive glass. That's an area that Duke has surprisingly

931
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:53,960
Speaker 5: struggled with on the defensive glass. So ken Bacott dominated

932
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 5: inside with Mark Williams's defense, and then how many offensive

933
00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 5: rebounds can they get? You would think that if bay

934
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 5: Kott is dominminating inside that Duke might go to that

935
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 5: two three zone and then forced Carolina to the shoot.

936
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 5: But Carolina is like shooting extremely well this year. They're

937
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 5: shooting their fifteenth in the country and three point percentage.

938
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 5: You know, Carolina is not going to turn Duke over

939
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 5: at all. They're three hundred and fifty six to turn

940
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:20,759
Speaker 5: over rate. Duke's top fifteen in that department. But that's

941
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:23,319
Speaker 5: kind of like you weren't turning anyone over anyway. Duke

942
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 5: is taking care of the ball anyway, So I don't

943
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 5: I actually think that's in that positive for Carolina. So

944
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 5: intriguing matchup here. Carolina projected on pen com cap hom

945
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 5: to lose by three, playing really well at home. It's

946
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 5: coach K's last trip to Chapel Hill, and it's Hubert

947
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:47,120
Speaker 5: Davis's first as a head coach in this rivalry. What

948
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 5: do you see here?

949
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:51,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I am actually going to be interested in the

950
00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:54,279
Speaker 1: total for this one. So Ken Palm has it seventy nine,

951
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 1: seventy six, So that's what's one hundred and fifty five

952
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 1: I believe is a total m if I'm doing my

953
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 1: math right. Like you mentioned, there's there's so many matchup

954
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 1: problems I think for Duke defensively, you know in that

955
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 1: in your article that you wrote early this week. I'm

956
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:13,360
Speaker 1: going to pluck another stat from it, Duke, fifty percent

957
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:16,280
Speaker 1: of the three pointers they allow are unguarded. Like that's crazy.

958
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 1: Teams just aren't shooting a high percentage against them. And

959
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, North Carolina fifteenth in the country in

960
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 1: three point field goal percent so they could just shoot

961
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:27,720
Speaker 1: the lights out against Duke and it potentially not necessarily

962
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:29,439
Speaker 1: run away with this, but you know, put up a big,

963
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,440
Speaker 1: big time numbers like we saw in those two matchups

964
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:35,399
Speaker 1: last year. So North Carolina obviously plays a very, very

965
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:37,799
Speaker 1: fast tempo. Duke is a little bit above average. So

966
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:39,960
Speaker 1: my guess for this game being in Chapel Hill, nor

967
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:42,799
Speaker 1: North Carolina's gonna be able to somewhat control the pace

968
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:46,919
Speaker 1: and force Duke into a track meet. I'm concerned that

969
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:51,320
Speaker 1: for Duke that Bacott's just gonna dominate the offensive glass.

970
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 1: Duke is twelfth in the ACC and defensive rebounding percentage

971
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:57,279
Speaker 1: in league play, so that's obviously very concerning. But on

972
00:48:57,280 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 1: the flip side, North Carolina, like you mentioned, they have

973
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:03,359
Speaker 1: been playing better at home defensively, but really the two

974
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:05,839
Speaker 1: things they do well is they rebound and they prevent

975
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 1: teams from getting the free throw line. But they're very

976
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:10,880
Speaker 1: average everywhere else, and they're actually in the bottom twenty

977
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 1: five percent of college basketball in points per possessional out

978
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 1: and half court defense. So it's gonna be hard for

979
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:18,359
Speaker 1: me to stay away from the over on this one.

980
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 1: I really hope we can get one hundred and fifty

981
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 1: five or lower, but I'll probably end up just playing

982
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:26,840
Speaker 1: the over in this game.

983
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:29,879
Speaker 5: All right, we'll have a preview for on ACTUALLYWA dot com,

984
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 5: the Action NETWORKAP any other games you want to mention

985
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 5: or talk about before we get out of here.

986
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:37,240
Speaker 1: USC Arizona's kind of interesting. I think on on Saturday

987
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 1: might be a potentially a good spot for USC with

988
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 1: Arizona coming off the game again.

989
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 5: Arizona beats UCLA and Arizona State and then Arizona State

990
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:47,480
Speaker 5: upsets USC.

991
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, it would be it'd be perfect. MPOUM has it

992
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 1: at minus eleven. The thing about Arizona is they obviously

993
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:56,080
Speaker 1: have a ton of size, but USC is going to

994
00:49:56,120 --> 00:49:58,319
Speaker 1: be able to match that size, like not a lot

995
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:02,320
Speaker 1: of teams have done to Arizona this season. USC's number

996
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 1: one team in the country in field World percentage allowed

997
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 1: at the rim, so it's gonna be very hard for

998
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:12,760
Speaker 1: Arizona to get their usual buckets in close. USC plays

999
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 1: on the road against Arizona State tonight, so we'll see

1000
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 1: what happens in that one. But with Arizona even you

1001
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:24,720
Speaker 1: know Tommy Lloyd, he even came out and said after

1002
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 1: the loss to UCLA that his guys were just gassed

1003
00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 1: and exhausted from the season. He gave him a ton

1004
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:32,439
Speaker 1: of you know, some time off. They didn't look good

1005
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 1: against Arizona State. And this past weekend on Saturday, the

1006
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 1: Arizona State was up one with twelve minutes left to

1007
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:41,360
Speaker 1: go in the game, they just you know, collapse at

1008
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 1: the end. So I think it's a pretty good spot

1009
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 1: for USC's gonna be able to match the size of Arizona.

1010
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:50,399
Speaker 1: So Ken Pom has it at minus eleven. I'll take

1011
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:54,560
Speaker 1: hopefully we get USC something in the double digits.

1012
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:57,840
Speaker 5: Yeah. I also think Michigan double digits against Purdue. They

1013
00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:00,840
Speaker 5: actually think the matchup pretty well, really desperate spot for

1014
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 5: them too. They have the size inside, but Pdue doesn't

1015
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:05,400
Speaker 5: run a lot of pick and roll or iceolase that's

1016
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 5: what really Michigan struggled to defend. And I think that

1017
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:10,800
Speaker 5: Michigan and other and can take advantage of some of

1018
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 5: the produe's weaknesses on the perimeter. I'll have something written

1019
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:15,400
Speaker 5: up for that game.

1020
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:16,160
Speaker 4: All right.

1021
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:20,720
Speaker 5: Now, we are joined by Simon Gerzberg of Shot Quality.

1022
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:22,680
Speaker 5: Some of you might be familiar with the site or

1023
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 5: or follow them on Twitter at shot Underscore, Quality resource

1024
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:30,919
Speaker 5: that college basketball fans and specifically betters have been using,

1025
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:33,359
Speaker 5: and if not, should check out what's going on. Simon,

1026
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 5: thanks for joining.

1027
00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 1: Us, Thank you for having me.

1028
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:37,760
Speaker 5: This is awesome. I wanted to give you a chance

1029
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 5: to talk about the site, and then you know it

1030
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 5: is a betting podcast, so we'll start there and then

1031
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 5: get into just a couple of teams that your model

1032
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 5: likes and or doesn't like for people looking for teams

1033
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:53,520
Speaker 5: to potentially fade or and to a ride throughout the

1034
00:51:53,520 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 5: rest of the season. So why don't you just give

1035
00:51:55,160 --> 00:51:58,919
Speaker 5: a quick synopsis of the product itself and what you're

1036
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 5: looking to do. Absolutely so.

1037
00:52:01,520 --> 00:52:03,719
Speaker 8: Obviously, as you can probably get from the name, the

1038
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 8: point of the product is to quantify and calculate the

1039
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:09,399
Speaker 8: quality of shots. So we track on every single play

1040
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:12,560
Speaker 8: in college basketball the quality of the shot. It takes

1041
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 8: into account the individual shot making ability and the overall

1042
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 8: shot selection of the play. So for example, when Drew

1043
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:21,359
Speaker 8: Timmy's on the left block, that's gonna have a different

1044
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 8: shot quality than when I'm on.

1045
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:23,240
Speaker 4: The left block.

1046
00:52:23,440 --> 00:52:25,279
Speaker 5: You're not good to the left flock. I'm more a

1047
00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:26,760
Speaker 5: right block guy. So that's why.

1048
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:30,800
Speaker 8: That's obviously why, and the reason it's a value obviously

1049
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:34,320
Speaker 8: from a betting perspective is because using this quality of shots,

1050
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:37,120
Speaker 8: especially in college best which is a smaller sample than

1051
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:40,840
Speaker 8: like the NBA game, results aren't always indicative of process.

1052
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:43,360
Speaker 8: So there are countless teams of the three hundred and

1053
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 8: fifty eight that are getting good processes but not getting

1054
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 8: good results at this point in time, and that's really

1055
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:52,960
Speaker 8: where we see value, and our shot quality bets line

1056
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 8: value will highlight those teams.

1057
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, just to like, from a basic statistics point of view,

1058
00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 5: you're gonna have teams that are you know, with three

1059
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 5: hundred fifty teams, you're gonna have teams that are running

1060
00:53:03,520 --> 00:53:05,439
Speaker 5: really good. You're gonna have teams that are running really

1061
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 5: poorly every year. It's just a fact of life when

1062
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:12,240
Speaker 5: you're you know, only fifteen to twenty games into the season,

1063
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:16,359
Speaker 5: especially and you started out doing this for Colgate, right

1064
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:20,799
Speaker 5: you were you were uh, tracking shot quality for their

1065
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,400
Speaker 5: opponents and for their own team, right exactly.

1066
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 8: I was doing it behind the bench by hand, and

1067
00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:27,400
Speaker 8: then found a way to automate it for everyone eventually.

1068
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:29,319
Speaker 5: Yeah, it also takes into account, you know. So if

1069
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 5: a team is a team you know, beats a team

1070
00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 5: by ten, and then you know they were making a

1071
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 5: lot of tough uncontested I mean tough contested like mid

1072
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:41,359
Speaker 5: range jumpers, and then you know the other team went

1073
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 5: you know, two of twenty from three and missed a

1074
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:47,160
Speaker 5: bunch of wide open threes. The team that lost by

1075
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:50,440
Speaker 5: ten probably you know you charted out, probably should have won.

1076
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 5: A good example of that. I remember watching the game

1077
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:54,760
Speaker 5: and I was like, I had money on Michigan against

1078
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 5: Michigan State, and I'm like, man, this is brutal because

1079
00:53:57,160 --> 00:54:00,120
Speaker 5: I feel like Michigan is getting so many more quality. Look.

1080
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 5: One of the reasons that I like the tool not

1081
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:05,799
Speaker 5: not only for you know, predictive analysis, but you can

1082
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 5: one of the things that I always do is a

1083
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,320
Speaker 5: better as I track. Okay, was this that lucky or unlucky?

1084
00:54:10,360 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 5: So like a last minute bullshit? What should the actual

1085
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:17,279
Speaker 5: score should have been in that particular case. I think Michigan, say, well,

1086
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:19,040
Speaker 5: by like fifteen or something. With the shock quater you

1087
00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:21,080
Speaker 5: have Michigan, it's like a five point winner. You know,

1088
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:25,799
Speaker 5: that can help you understand when you're going through like slumps,

1089
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:29,280
Speaker 5: poor streaks, like I'm right now, I'm in a slump,

1090
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 5: and I can go back and I can look all right,

1091
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:34,319
Speaker 5: am I just getting unlucky? And then because there's so

1092
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:38,279
Speaker 5: much variance in college basketball, or is there something you know,

1093
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:40,239
Speaker 5: more flaw that I have to look at in my

1094
00:54:40,320 --> 00:54:43,600
Speaker 5: numbers and or how I'm approaching it, so you know, yeah,

1095
00:54:43,719 --> 00:54:46,040
Speaker 5: some of my hottest streaks in college when I bet

1096
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:49,040
Speaker 5: college basketball, I'm getting lucky as shit. And then you know,

1097
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 5: this is one of the tools that you can use

1098
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:54,760
Speaker 5: to check it, to check yourself that closing line value.

1099
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 5: There's a lot of things that you can do other

1100
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:58,399
Speaker 5: than just results, which you're going to have a lot

1101
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:01,399
Speaker 5: of noise, especially over the short term. As far as

1102
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:07,399
Speaker 5: applicable information for right now, today's concaest war are there

1103
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 5: is there a team or two that the model really

1104
00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 5: likes and a team or two that the model doesn't

1105
00:55:12,480 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 5: really like that you want to highlight totally.

1106
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 8: I'll go I'll start with two teams that the model

1107
00:55:17,719 --> 00:55:22,439
Speaker 8: really really likes mid major team Georgia State. So they

1108
00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:26,360
Speaker 8: they've lost five of their last seven games, but based

1109
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:28,759
Speaker 8: off the quality possessions that both teams have had in

1110
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:31,360
Speaker 8: the last seven games, they're expected to win all seven.

1111
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:35,480
Speaker 8: So teams against them are currently shooting forty three percent

1112
00:55:35,520 --> 00:55:39,320
Speaker 8: from three, but are expected to shoot nine percent worse

1113
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 8: that nine percent worse over the course.

1114
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:42,400
Speaker 5: Of the season.

1115
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 8: It's such a significant difference, Like no team is shooting

1116
00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:49,480
Speaker 8: forty three, Like that's ridiculous that in the three point

1117
00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 8: defense isn't even bad, like based off our metrics, it's

1118
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 8: actually like above average three point defense. It's just their

1119
00:55:55,160 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 8: teams are hitting everything against them. So that's one major team.

1120
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:02,759
Speaker 5: They're shooting really poorly, and I think they're shooting like,

1121
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 5: I don't twenty eight percent from three or somewhere low.

1122
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 5: And then the thing that I like about when you

1123
00:56:09,160 --> 00:56:11,800
Speaker 5: mentioned some of these teams, when you have a team

1124
00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 5: that you have a lot more data on, So like

1125
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:16,280
Speaker 5: Georgia State has three seniors that start on the perimeter

1126
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 5: that where their primary contributors last year, they're all shooting

1127
00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 5: way below the way below their career averages. But you know,

1128
00:56:23,600 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 5: that Okay, this core last year had this body of

1129
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:30,920
Speaker 5: work and kind of just confirms that. Okay, now I

1130
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 5: can even have to be more confident that they definitely

1131
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:34,280
Speaker 5: are getting the unlucky.

1132
00:56:34,320 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 8: But go ahead exactly exactly. And then another one is Pacific.

1133
00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:43,279
Speaker 8: So this one's really interesting. So same thing with the

1134
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:45,799
Speaker 8: defensive three point lock. That's one major factor. So teams

1135
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:48,480
Speaker 8: are currently shooting forty percent from three against them and

1136
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:50,759
Speaker 8: are expected to shoot thirty five. They have a little

1137
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,520
Speaker 8: bit worse of a three point quality defense than Georgia State.

1138
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:55,760
Speaker 8: But this is the one that I think is so interesting.

1139
00:56:56,160 --> 00:57:00,120
Speaker 8: The opponent free throw percentage the most uncontrollable variable you.

1140
00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 5: Could possibly have.

1141
00:57:01,960 --> 00:57:05,680
Speaker 8: Right now, they're three hundred and fifty six in college basketball.

1142
00:57:05,280 --> 00:57:06,120
Speaker 1: Teams are shooting.

1143
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 8: It doesn't seem like this would matter, but it really does.

1144
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:11,720
Speaker 8: Teams are shooting seventy eight percent from the line against

1145
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:14,839
Speaker 8: them and are expected to shoot sixty seven percent based

1146
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 8: off just like the Korea free throw percentage of these

1147
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 8: guys taking them.

1148
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, the Tigers got to improve their free throw defense.

1149
00:57:21,480 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 8: They got to get some football players doing like backflips

1150
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:26,160
Speaker 8: while the opponents are shooting or something. They got They

1151
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:27,760
Speaker 8: got they got to mess with the players. I don't know,

1152
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 8: maybe it's the home court.

1153
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 5: Yeah see, And it's even worse in conference play. Their

1154
00:57:31,240 --> 00:57:34,760
Speaker 5: opponents are shooting forty one percent from three and seventy

1155
00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:37,880
Speaker 5: nine point one percent from the line. You saw some

1156
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:40,640
Speaker 5: of this a good team to highlight as an example

1157
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:43,760
Speaker 5: of you know, okay, hey, there's looming regression, and then

1158
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:48,439
Speaker 5: it hits is and the funny thing is that they're

1159
00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:50,960
Speaker 5: still running really well in this department is LSU Like

1160
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:54,480
Speaker 5: LSU was elite free throw and three point defense, and

1161
00:57:54,520 --> 00:57:56,720
Speaker 5: then you've seen them when they've lost five of six

1162
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:58,640
Speaker 5: now and they just you know, lost their home to

1163
00:57:58,680 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 5: Ole Miss, and you're starting to know to see that

1164
00:58:02,400 --> 00:58:05,160
Speaker 5: LSU wasn't as good as some of the metrics exactly.

1165
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:10,120
Speaker 8: We actually just posted I tweeted something out on January eighteenth,

1166
00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:13,400
Speaker 8: which was basically like two teams that are just major

1167
00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 8: negative regression candidates.

1168
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:16,400
Speaker 5: It was Iowa State and LSU.

1169
00:58:17,800 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 8: Just for the reads you just said, for LSU, I

1170
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:23,080
Speaker 8: similarly give up a ton of open threes, but teams

1171
00:58:23,080 --> 00:58:26,800
Speaker 8: were shooting twenty eight percent and since to tweet LSU's

1172
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:30,880
Speaker 8: one and four and Iowa State's two and three, ridiculous.

1173
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:34,320
Speaker 5: I'm sorry. Teams that you don't like. Maybe maybe it's Providence,

1174
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:36,400
Speaker 5: maybe it's Michigan State. Who I mentioned, any anyone you

1175
00:58:36,400 --> 00:58:36,840
Speaker 5: want to mention.

1176
00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 8: VCU is another major one for me, expected to have

1177
00:58:39,760 --> 00:58:43,640
Speaker 8: three more losses on the season. They just squeaked by

1178
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:46,680
Speaker 8: a Richmond team the other day, and like Richmond dominated

1179
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:48,760
Speaker 8: the quality of shots in that game overall in the season.

1180
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:50,320
Speaker 8: I'm just going to keep parping on the three point

1181
00:58:50,360 --> 00:58:53,280
Speaker 8: defense thing. Teams are shooting twenty eight percent from three

1182
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:55,120
Speaker 8: against them, but they give up the two hundred and

1183
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 8: sixty fourth most open threes, So obviously you wouldn't expect

1184
00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:02,520
Speaker 8: that to continue. So they're a big negative profession Candid.

1185
00:59:02,560 --> 00:59:05,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, VC's shooting over their head to especially in conference

1186
00:59:05,040 --> 00:59:07,320
Speaker 5: play from three. And yeah, I had Richmond in that

1187
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:11,919
Speaker 5: game unfortunately, And VSU ball goes into the back court

1188
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:13,240
Speaker 5: with one second of the shot clock. Who was a

1189
00:59:13,360 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 5: final They come down hit bomba three after they banked

1190
00:59:16,640 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 5: in this contested mid range.

1191
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:19,680
Speaker 8: I was like, this kind of something with the shot

1192
00:59:19,680 --> 00:59:21,760
Speaker 8: clock at zero, this guy hits a pull up like

1193
00:59:21,840 --> 00:59:24,640
Speaker 8: double clutch three top or two with like twenty seconds.

1194
00:59:24,760 --> 00:59:28,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, ridiculous. Anyone else sir, anything else you want to mention.

1195
00:59:29,440 --> 00:59:31,400
Speaker 8: I have one play of the day based off the

1196
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:34,360
Speaker 8: shock Quality bets model on plays with eight plus points

1197
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 8: of value. The model is currently hitting at fifty eight

1198
00:59:36,600 --> 00:59:38,920
Speaker 8: percent and up sixty two units on the season. So

1199
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:41,240
Speaker 8: one of these plays for us right now, assuming the

1200
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:44,880
Speaker 8: line stays where it's at right now, is Milwaukee plus

1201
00:59:44,880 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 8: six and a half against Purdue Fort Wayne tomorrow. Right now,

1202
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:50,320
Speaker 8: the lines at YAH plus six and a half, and

1203
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:52,800
Speaker 8: right now we have that as eight point nine points

1204
00:59:52,840 --> 00:59:56,280
Speaker 8: of value. So it's a pretty significant play for us.

1205
00:59:56,360 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 8: And our eight plus has just been so successful on

1206
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:03,400
Speaker 8: a pretty sample like is five hundred game model sample,

1207
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:05,720
Speaker 8: so I think that's a really really good play.

1208
01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:08,520
Speaker 5: Well, there you have it. Make sure you check him

1209
01:00:08,520 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 5: out at shot underscore Quality on Twitter for all of

1210
01:00:12,760 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 5: this stuff he's referred to, and then you can also

1211
01:00:15,040 --> 01:00:19,280
Speaker 5: check out the shot quality site shot quality dot Com.

1212
01:00:19,320 --> 01:00:21,120
Speaker 5: I'll uh you know some of the stuff that I've

1213
01:00:21,120 --> 01:00:23,440
Speaker 5: put out there in Action Network I reference as well.

1214
01:00:23,480 --> 01:00:26,720
Speaker 5: It's a great tool. We'll have you on again before

1215
01:00:26,720 --> 01:00:28,480
Speaker 5: the end of the season, but just wanted to get

1216
01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:31,880
Speaker 5: you on to talk a little bit about the site

1217
01:00:31,920 --> 01:00:33,920
Speaker 5: and good luck the rest of the season and we'll

1218
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:37,480
Speaker 5: talk soon. Of course. Appreciate second all right, Appreciate Simon

1219
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:41,320
Speaker 5: taking the time. Appreciate Colin as always for checking in

1220
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:44,800
Speaker 5: the guys from three Man Weep with a Friday Night

1221
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:48,560
Speaker 5: six pack, and of course my co host BJ cunning In.

1222
01:00:49,200 --> 01:00:51,440
Speaker 5: I do want to give out some giveaways Kew Bell

1223
01:00:51,480 --> 01:00:53,160
Speaker 5: four one seven. Hey, guys, love the pod and sweating

1224
01:00:53,160 --> 01:00:54,800
Speaker 5: out Saturdays in the winter. You guys get great inside

1225
01:00:54,800 --> 01:00:58,040
Speaker 5: in all conferences, not just Power six. Great tips and

1226
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:03,320
Speaker 5: on the dreaded regression mine dm me or the our

1227
01:01:03,400 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 5: producer at Old Boy Uncle Mitch Matt Mitchell on Twitter

1228
01:01:08,080 --> 01:01:10,760
Speaker 5: football two four four four Unreal pod and final goes

1229
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:12,440
Speaker 5: stuck in CW on the actual work for years, but

1230
01:01:12,480 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 5: this year I've listened to the pod. Great analysis, new

1231
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:18,600
Speaker 5: college basketball edition is great. Definitely not poverty on poverty

1232
01:01:18,640 --> 01:01:22,120
Speaker 5: right now, but the pod is not k DJ two

1233
01:01:22,760 --> 01:01:25,400
Speaker 5: five star entertainment, four and a half star picks and

1234
01:01:25,760 --> 01:01:29,320
Speaker 5: Jonathan can follow most in depth analysis you'll find anywhere.

1235
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:31,640
Speaker 5: So there you have it, those four DM me or

1236
01:01:31,680 --> 01:01:33,840
Speaker 5: the producer, We'll get you out some gear. I appreciate

1237
01:01:33,880 --> 01:01:36,200
Speaker 5: everyone listening. To make sure you subscribe on subscribe leave

1238
01:01:36,200 --> 01:01:38,320
Speaker 5: a review we five star review, really up to out

1239
01:01:38,360 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 5: and we'll get you some gear. Tell a friend, telling enemy,

1240
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:45,960
Speaker 5: Let's get this machine rolling. Good Luck on all your

1241
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 5: wagers this weekend, and we'll catch you next week. We'll

1242
01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:52,560
Speaker 5: be back on Monday myself, BJ, Mike cal Breezy, Wednesdays,

1243
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:55,760
Speaker 5: Three Man Weave Guys, PJ, myself with some guests. We'll

1244
01:01:55,800 --> 01:01:58,200
Speaker 5: be back next Friday, and on Saturday morning you can

1245
01:01:58,240 --> 01:02:01,720
Speaker 5: catch us on That's on Campus Live ten thirty am

1246
01:02:01,720 --> 01:02:05,240
Speaker 5: Eastern on Twitter. I'll be there with the guys from

1247
01:02:05,280 --> 01:02:07,280
Speaker 5: three Men we Even we'll break down Saturday's car to

1248
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:09,840
Speaker 5: see you there. Good luck, we'll catch you later. Cheers