WEBVTT - Tension In The Middle East: Mike Lyons Talks to Jack Armstrong

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<v Speaker 1>As Israel pursues any military operations against a moss, it

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<v Speaker 1>has to prioritize the protection of civilians. It has to

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<v Speaker 1>make that job number one. Too many people have been

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<v Speaker 1>caught in this crossfire of a moss's making, children, women, men,

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<v Speaker 1>losing their lives. Their safety has to be a priority,

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<v Speaker 1>and military operations need to be designed around their protection,

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<v Speaker 1>not the other way around.

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<v Speaker 2>That's our Secretary of State saying, Israel needs to make

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<v Speaker 2>the protection of civilians the number one priority. He emphasized

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<v Speaker 2>that a couple of times number one above eliminating hamas.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know if that is reality or not. Among

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<v Speaker 2>the things we will discuss with Mike Lyons, a military

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<v Speaker 2>analyst we've had on many, many times over the years

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<v Speaker 2>because we like talking to him. Mike served with various

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<v Speaker 2>military organizations both the United States and Europe throughout his career.

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<v Speaker 2>You can follow him at ma J Mike Lyons because

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<v Speaker 2>if something big happens militarily, I usually go to his

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<v Speaker 2>feed to see what he's got to say about it.

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<v Speaker 2>Mike Lions, Welcome to the Armstrong Show.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, Jack, great to be back with you.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, what was your first reaction when you heard about

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<v Speaker 2>the aid workers being.

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<v Speaker 3>Killed fog of war, frankly, and that's the most dangerous

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<v Speaker 3>place on the planet right now. And that that spot

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<v Speaker 3>the fact that from the combat zone perspective and you

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<v Speaker 3>put civilians in there, I didn't, you know, we learned

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<v Speaker 3>now more about the what what's kind of going on?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, Israel basically outsourced the security of those organizations

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<v Speaker 3>to Hamas. There was gunmen that were there that was

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<v Speaker 3>you know, if you're if you're in that environment, you

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<v Speaker 3>need protection as well. And it looks like they were

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<v Speaker 3>Hamas's operatives that were protecting those convoys. And so I

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<v Speaker 3>just figured out a lot of things must have went

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<v Speaker 3>wrong and misidentification mistakes, late at night, darkness, all these things,

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<v Speaker 3>even with all the technology that we have, and that

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<v Speaker 3>leads to the disastered hatem. I think that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>it was three different targets. They didn't bother to take

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<v Speaker 3>the ton in between after hitting the first target to

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<v Speaker 3>assess what was going on on. They were pretty set

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<v Speaker 3>on taking out those three targets right away, and if

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<v Speaker 3>they did that, they might have at least not shot

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<v Speaker 3>the second and the third truck in the convoy. But fundamentally,

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<v Speaker 3>that is the most dangerous place in the world. Then

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<v Speaker 3>there's an expectation that that's going to happen, and all

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<v Speaker 3>the things that went wrong went wrong, and this is

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<v Speaker 3>what happens.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, so I assume that you agree that the growing

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<v Speaker 2>analysis that this was on purpose is ridiculous.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, No, it wasn't on purpose. They could have done better.

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<v Speaker 3>A lot of it has to do with their rules

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<v Speaker 3>of engagement. It looks that, you know, the Israelis fired

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<v Speaker 3>the fire support officer, the one that was really responsible

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<v Speaker 3>for formulating the target and pulling a trigger, as well

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<v Speaker 3>as others in the chain of command. So they've taken

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<v Speaker 3>full responsibility for it. It was not on purpose. They

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<v Speaker 3>like anything else, it could have done better as they

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<v Speaker 3>go down and you know, redo what their rules of

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<v Speaker 3>engagement were. I mean, this is if you get into

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<v Speaker 3>the details of this. It was a convoy that that

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<v Speaker 3>did add gunman to it, that went into a way

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<v Speaker 3>our house and came out, and they made the presumption

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<v Speaker 3>that those gunmen were still on the on the trucks,

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<v Speaker 3>and they didn't see the world's central kitchen marker on

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<v Speaker 3>the top of course not it's eleven o'clock at night.

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<v Speaker 3>They didn't see that there should have been a beacon

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<v Speaker 3>on it, for example. That's what I would want. I'd want,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, safety flare beacons on those and telling everybody

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<v Speaker 3>that this is a safety this is a vehicle that's

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<v Speaker 3>delivering some kind of aid. But what the rules are

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<v Speaker 3>engagement I think changed now is that you've got to

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<v Speaker 3>put an Israeli soldier on the ground or a convoy

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<v Speaker 3>that's going to approach that, and you can't take it

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<v Speaker 3>out from a drone. They took that out from you know,

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<v Speaker 3>twenty miles away looking through a TV screen. That's where

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<v Speaker 3>it got impersonal. I think that's what the problem was.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I I don't I'm just a talk show host.

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<v Speaker 2>I've never been involved in any of this sort of stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't want to go too far down the road

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<v Speaker 2>of being callous. But are we holding or is the

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<v Speaker 2>world holding Israel to a standard that can't be met?

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<v Speaker 2>Or do you feel like they have been to Lucy Goosey,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, we killed how many people did the Biden

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<v Speaker 2>administration killed there in Cobb Guy coming home with a

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<v Speaker 2>bunch of water bottles and his kids run out to

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<v Speaker 2>greet him, and we blew them all up with the

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<v Speaker 2>drone strike. Barack Obama when Joe Biden was Vice president,

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<v Speaker 2>the Doctors without Borders thing that happened, where like forty

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<v Speaker 2>people died in that. That was another mistake that we

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<v Speaker 2>apologized for. But we don't always get it right either.

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<v Speaker 3>No. No, And in fact, when we didn't relieve anybody

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<v Speaker 3>for it either, we didn't punish anybody as well. No,

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<v Speaker 3>I think Israel has held to a very high standard

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<v Speaker 3>with regard to conducting this war. I think that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>they've warned their enemy that they're coming the next day,

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<v Speaker 3>they're trying to move civilians. This is an enemy that

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<v Speaker 3>embeds himself with civilians, and so no, I don't think

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<v Speaker 3>they've been Lucy goosey. I think in this case with

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<v Speaker 3>just all again with what all the situations that take

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<v Speaker 3>place in the time and the place between the twenty

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<v Speaker 3>minutes when they decided they had a target, when they

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<v Speaker 3>thought it was a combatant, and it turns out it wasn't.

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<v Speaker 3>It's just the worst possible scenario. But no, I think

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<v Speaker 3>Israel has been fined a help to a higher standard

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<v Speaker 3>the health to their own standard, which they've been able

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<v Speaker 3>to explain. And I just don't think the rest of

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<v Speaker 3>the world is listening. The rest of the world does,

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<v Speaker 3>for some reason hold den war responsile. Then Hamas right, death,

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<v Speaker 3>civilian casualty is Hamas's problem, not Israel's problem, right, So

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<v Speaker 3>that's kind of how I see it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's interesting. So the news all day yesterday on

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<v Speaker 2>this story, at least like on the Sunday talk shows,

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<v Speaker 2>was that Israel had pulled a bunch of troops out

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<v Speaker 2>of southern Gaza, and they were sort of portraying it

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<v Speaker 2>as a sign that maybe Israel was back and off

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<v Speaker 2>we're heading toward to cease fire. Do you see it

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<v Speaker 2>that way or are they just rearranging for the big

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<v Speaker 2>final battle in Rafa.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah. I think it's smart, and I'll tell you why,

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<v Speaker 3>because they recognize that the maneuver element of this conflict

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<v Speaker 3>is over now, at least in these areas that they had.

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<v Speaker 3>What I mean by that is the use of shock

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<v Speaker 3>effect tanks and APC's and artillery. This enemy is so

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<v Speaker 3>embedded with the civilians in Rafa right now that they

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<v Speaker 3>recognize that that's just kind of let's move these maneuver

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<v Speaker 3>elements out for now and then get ready for this

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<v Speaker 3>attack that will take place maybe in a couple of

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<v Speaker 3>weeks from now as they as they kind of you know,

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<v Speaker 3>kind of gear up for it, so I and then

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<v Speaker 3>at the same time kind of put the cooling down

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<v Speaker 3>with regard to that. There's no way that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>they'll attack a convoy or something by accident at this point.

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<v Speaker 3>But in the same token, you had the most number

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<v Speaker 3>of trucks the other day, get into get into the gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, this is an Israel allows its enemy to

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<v Speaker 3>be resupplied. I mean, this is crazy on some level.

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<v Speaker 3>They allow this to happen. They allow Hamas to come

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<v Speaker 3>in and take over all of these supplies that are

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<v Speaker 3>coming in from you know, from the outside. So they

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<v Speaker 3>still have an uphill battle, but I think this is

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<v Speaker 3>going to be a refit and rearm themselves in order

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<v Speaker 3>to eventually take take Rafa in the next few weeks.

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<v Speaker 2>I know you're a big student of military history. Are

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<v Speaker 2>there parallels to this when you're attacked by someone? We didn't,

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<v Speaker 2>We didn't make it our number one priority. As the

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<v Speaker 2>Secretary State just said to feed the Japanese people as

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<v Speaker 2>we were bombing them. Does this happen ever before this?

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<v Speaker 3>No, No, it's there's not a lot of historical parallels

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<v Speaker 3>to this, and that's because this is an enemy that's

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<v Speaker 3>fighting non conventionally, and that's why, that's why they have

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<v Speaker 3>to move those forces. They you know, traditional maneuver and

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<v Speaker 3>fire is against an enemy that does the same thing,

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<v Speaker 3>that that also admits defeat at some point recognizes that

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<v Speaker 3>it's not doing anything for the civilian population. And that's

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<v Speaker 3>you know that this argument about well, you know, we

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<v Speaker 3>can't you know, they can't win because you can't defeat

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<v Speaker 3>an ideology, Well, don't you know tell that's what happened

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<v Speaker 3>to the Germans. They defeated an ideology, they destroyed everything

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<v Speaker 3>that was there. And so the same ideology was defeated

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<v Speaker 3>in Japan. And that's what Israel is doing. Israel fighting

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<v Speaker 3>this war like it's nineteen forty five, and they're not stopping.

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<v Speaker 3>They're not stopping for one bit. They're not stopping because

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<v Speaker 3>of what Joe Biden says or what Blinkin says, or

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<v Speaker 3>whatever the case may be. The problem is Joe Biden's

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<v Speaker 3>finding it like it's nineteen eighteen. He wants to just

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<v Speaker 3>stop it and and give Hamas a chance to rearm

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<v Speaker 3>and retool and refuel. And that's what will happen over

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<v Speaker 3>the next forty years. But Israel's not going to let

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<v Speaker 3>that happen.

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<v Speaker 2>So our government released a report on Friday. They kind

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<v Speaker 2>of flew under the radar. I feel like that we

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<v Speaker 2>are preparing for a retaliation by Iran somewhere in the

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<v Speaker 2>Middle East on a target either US or Israel. Do

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<v Speaker 2>you think Iran is going to retaliate? They they vowed retaliation,

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<v Speaker 2>but they've been vowing that sort of thing for you know,

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<v Speaker 2>since I was a kid.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, my phone rang over the weekend off the hook

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<v Speaker 3>on that. I think that I just don't think that's

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<v Speaker 3>still the case, because that opens up a whole nother front.

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<v Speaker 3>If Iran launched a missile from Iran, some medium or

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<v Speaker 3>long range missile and hit Tel Aviv or hit something,

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<v Speaker 3>then that opens up a complete new front for Israel

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<v Speaker 3>to you know, to attack back, and there will attack

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<v Speaker 3>will not be proportional. They will go after their nuclear facilities,

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<v Speaker 3>They'll go after their Pentagon equivalent in Tehran. They will Again,

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think. I just don't believe Iran is you know,

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<v Speaker 3>kind of dumb enough to do that. That's that, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>that's to say that they're going to use their proxies

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<v Speaker 3>and use all what they can. One of the things

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<v Speaker 3>that I've seen reports on is trying to cut off

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<v Speaker 3>their land bridge that goes from Israel into the Persian Gulf.

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<v Speaker 3>That means activating proxy groups inside of Jordan, inside of

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<v Speaker 3>a rock and cutting off supplies that that Israel is setting.

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<v Speaker 3>It's you know, some of its goods to the person

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<v Speaker 3>gulf that way. But I again, for Iran to engage

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<v Speaker 3>Israel directly, I don't think that's a good idea from

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<v Speaker 3>their perspective.

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<v Speaker 2>What is your that's interesting? Your phone was ringing off

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<v Speaker 2>the hook on that particular question. What is your worst realistic,

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<v Speaker 2>worst case scenario? Where where are you concerned? Like, what's

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<v Speaker 2>the sort of thing that could could keep you awake

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<v Speaker 2>at night over the next week or two.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's the same thing that could have happened back

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<v Speaker 3>in nineteen seventy two and nineteen sixty seven. If all

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<v Speaker 3>these Arab nations decided to say, you know what, we've

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<v Speaker 3>had it with Israel, We've had it, and they all

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<v Speaker 3>got together and they decided to overwhelmed them. They Israel

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<v Speaker 3>still could potentially be overwhelmed in the North with Hezbollah

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<v Speaker 3>and in Lebanon they could and potentially have the Iranians

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<v Speaker 3>decide to get involved with ground forces, the Whosies. We

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<v Speaker 3>see what they're doing. They can, they can fire a

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<v Speaker 3>lot more rockets and then Hamas has been somewhat defeated,

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<v Speaker 3>but there's still battalions left in the south areon Ralfa.

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<v Speaker 3>That to me is the nightmare scenario, because then Israel

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<v Speaker 3>would have a real tough challenge defending all of those

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<v Speaker 3>different fronts. That's the nightmare scenario. And thank god in

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<v Speaker 3>the last fifty sixty years that hasn't happened. It almost

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<v Speaker 3>happened during the Yankapur War. As these Arab countries that

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<v Speaker 3>you decide to get together, but they just can't seem

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<v Speaker 3>to hold it together and Israel ends up defeating them.

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<v Speaker 3>That would be the worst possible scenario.

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<v Speaker 2>Interesting, Well, appreciate your time and your expertise on this

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<v Speaker 2>sort of thing. Need to talk to some of you

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<v Speaker 2>actually knows what they're talking about. Major Mike Leines, thanks

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<v Speaker 2>for coming on the Armstrong and Getty Show today.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks Jack, thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 2>You bet you Armstrong and Getty