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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into the Friday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Perrault. You guys can follow me on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Sports Talk Matt. You should also be following betting pros

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Betting Pros andfl We are here every

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Speaker 1: morning on Bettingpros dot com. We are here wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your audio podcast. YouTube for the video, as we're

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Speaker 1: always being brought to you by bet MGM the five

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Speaker 1: dollars bet one hundred dollars free, one hundred dollars in

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Speaker 1: free bets if a team scores a touchdown, if you

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Speaker 1: bet a money line side total, whatever you bet using

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Speaker 1: that promo Codejuice one hundred for new customers at BETMGM. Okay.

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Speaker 1: So last night it's a winning night for me because

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Speaker 1: both prop bets hit and we get the half unit

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Speaker 1: correct for the WNBA game, which went over one seventy

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Speaker 1: in the third quarter. So that's a laugher. That's a quick,

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Speaker 1: easy win like that, we get the two, we get

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Speaker 1: the two prop bets correct really easily. Joe Burrow goes

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Speaker 1: over his passing totals and Robinson goes over his rushing totals,

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Speaker 1: so we got those right, and then forty five and

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Speaker 1: a half is the total we bet for the over.

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Speaker 1: We miss a field goal, and then at the end

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Speaker 1: of the first half we do not get that either

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Speaker 1: field goal or touchdown out of Jacksonville. It ended the

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Speaker 1: game for Jacksonville in a way, but it really ended

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Speaker 1: the over and a lot of people bet under forty six,

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Speaker 1: and they should be absolutely thanking the lucky stars that

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Speaker 1: they got it, because sometimes we get lucky and we win,

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Speaker 1: and sometimes we get unlucky and we lose. This is

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Speaker 1: one of those times where you just have to kind

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Speaker 1: of chalk it up to the right handicap the right side.

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Speaker 1: We were on the right side. The over should have

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Speaker 1: hit in that game, but due to a missfield goal

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Speaker 1: and then a play call that I just can't believe

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Speaker 1: that they ran. And I hate when it's fourth and

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Speaker 1: one from the goal line. I hate when teams college

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Speaker 1: does this. And Urban Meyer's got to learn. You can't

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Speaker 1: go shotgun, man, this is the NFL. What are you doing.

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Speaker 1: Get under center, get right on the guy's butt, and

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Speaker 1: go right forward and put the ball over the top.

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady was a master at it. You got a

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Speaker 1: six foot five quarterback. He's enormous under center. Hike the ball,

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Speaker 1: jump over the pile, reach out, score a touchdown. It's

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Speaker 1: not hard, Okay, teams do it all the time, and

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Speaker 1: coaches Urban Meyer, these college coaches come in and they

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Speaker 1: think they can run from the one, and you can't.

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Speaker 1: In the NFL, you can't. And that really hurt. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that was a bad loss. I mean the missfield goal

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Speaker 1: hurt too. But forty five was the total it falls at.

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Speaker 1: We bet over forty five and a half for one

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Speaker 1: full unit, so we lose. Unfortunately on the hook, it's

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Speaker 1: what happens, and right handicap being on the right side. Unfortunately.

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Speaker 1: It kind of a bad beat for us there with that.

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Speaker 1: But I had a couple of personal plays. I took

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Speaker 1: the plus seven and a half pregame on the Jaguars

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Speaker 1: an in game at halftime, I took the plus seven

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Speaker 1: on the Cinstani Bengals. So I hit both of those.

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Speaker 1: So that was a five to one day for me.

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Speaker 1: It turns out to be a three and one day.

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Speaker 1: But technically it's pretty much a flat day, you know,

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Speaker 1: with the one unit loss, and I think we've probably

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Speaker 1: wound up down like point one units or less than

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Speaker 1: a half less than point one just really nothing, just

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Speaker 1: a flat day on a three to one mark with

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Speaker 1: two quarter unit bets catching and a half unit bet.

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Speaker 1: But the juice comes into play there with those. So

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Speaker 1: not not the greatest of nights. But we move on

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Speaker 1: to a Friday here and a winning day. Point I

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Speaker 1: think I was up point eight units personally, but I

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Speaker 1: think we wound up a little bit down for the day. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, three and one. Good day for the for

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Speaker 1: the record, for the betting, for the daily juice record,

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Speaker 1: but not a great day for the cash coming in

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Speaker 1: for us here on that. Okay, So I don't have

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Speaker 1: a WNBA please play for you guys today. Everyone's gonna

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Speaker 1: be like, oh wnba, No, not yet. Okay. I may

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Speaker 1: go back to that later, but it's a Friday. We

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Speaker 1: have one play already going with Maryland plus four or

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Speaker 1: that number now is plus three, and it could actually

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Speaker 1: drip drop below three by the time the game kicks off.

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Speaker 1: We may be seeing some real steam on Maryland. I

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Speaker 1: don't really love that, to be quite honest. But still

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Speaker 1: the majority of the money and the bets are on Iowa,

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Speaker 1: and that the number keeps on coming down because respected

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Speaker 1: money keeps on coming in on Maryland. So let's hope

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Speaker 1: that we're on the right side there with respected money

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Speaker 1: for one unit Maryland plus the four. Okay, I've got

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Speaker 1: two bets for you guys coming up on Saturday. But

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Speaker 1: I am going to give you a parlay here, and

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Speaker 1: we've missed the last four of these. So we are

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Speaker 1: now seven and twenty eight on the parlays. Okay, So

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Speaker 1: now we're up eight units on this hypothetically if we

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Speaker 1: were betting one unit on this each and every time.

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Speaker 1: So I'm trying to kind of snuff out a win

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Speaker 1: here and kind of get us back up, you know,

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Speaker 1: over one thousand dollars over ten units if you will

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Speaker 1: on this, if we're betting one hundred dollars on this.

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Speaker 1: So I haven't hit one in a while, so I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to kind of figure out a way to hit this.

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Speaker 1: So here's where I'm going for the don't bet a

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Speaker 1: parlay parlay on a Friday. It is a four legger, Okay.

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Speaker 1: I am going to take the DoD with Clayton Kershaw pitching. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's the one baseball bet. Dodgers are red hot. They're

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Speaker 1: at home. They're taking on the Brewers. Brewers already in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. It's just kind of get ready for the postseason,

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Speaker 1: and the Dodgers have to win. They have no choice.

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Speaker 1: So they're in a big race four to four right

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Speaker 1: now with the Giants in the Dbacks, they're tied. That

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Speaker 1: game is late, so if Diamonbacks win that game, it's

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Speaker 1: a one game lead for the Giants. Going to the

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Speaker 1: final three games of the sea of the season. You know,

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers want to win their minus two to zero

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Speaker 1: five here at home up against the Milwaukee Brewers. So

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Speaker 1: that's the first leg. Okay, Second, there are three other

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Speaker 1: legs going to jump in here where Okay? The Iowa

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Speaker 1: Maryland game. I like the dog as you guys know,

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Speaker 1: plus the four. The total was forty seven and a

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Speaker 1: half Maryland is they're explosive, Okay, But I think against

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Speaker 1: his Iowa defense, I think it's far more likely this

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Speaker 1: is going to be like a complete bruiser a football game.

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Speaker 1: I think Iowa con win this game by three. I

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Speaker 1: think it's like a twenty to seventeen potentially potential win

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Speaker 1: for Iowa. That's why I like the four. But I

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Speaker 1: can't see Maryland winning the game. I have sprinkled on

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Speaker 1: Maryland money line as well. So here's where I'm going

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Speaker 1: under forty seven and a half Iowa and Maryland Friday

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Speaker 1: night BYU money line, laying nine and a half points

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Speaker 1: on the road at Utah but BYU money line, just

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Speaker 1: win the game. Utah State's been horrific straight up against

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Speaker 1: ranked teams over the last couple of years. And then

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Speaker 1: Houston on the road at Tulsa at plus three and

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Speaker 1: a half. I think that hook matters. Houston could be

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Speaker 1: live to win the game outright, great game in that

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Speaker 1: conference with Houston at Tulsa on a Friday night. Looking

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Speaker 1: forward to watching that game. But we're going Houston plus

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Speaker 1: three and a half. Okay, So it's Dodgers money line, Iowa,

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Speaker 1: Maryland under forty seven and a half BYU money line,

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Speaker 1: Houston plus three and a half. That is a four

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Speaker 1: leg plus six hundred parlay for us here on the

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Speaker 1: don't bet a parlay harlay for us on a Friday night. Okay,

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Speaker 1: four legs three football all happening tonight and baseball late

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Speaker 1: night on a Friday night with the Brewers at the

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Speaker 1: Dodger with Clinton Kershaw pitching for the LA Dodgers. There

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Speaker 1: minus two oh five on the money line right now

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Speaker 1: at the time of taping. Okay, so there is a

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Speaker 1: four leg six plus six hundred parlay for the don't

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Speaker 1: Better parlay parlay. All right, let's start talking about Alabama

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Speaker 1: and all Miss. Oh boy, this number opened at twenty. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Circus Sports in Vegas. Matthew Metcalfe and company, they open

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Speaker 1: up this number at twenty and they got blasted and

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Speaker 1: I mean blasted, immediately blasted Ole Miss down to fourteen. Okay,

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Speaker 1: shop around here. I found this at fourteen Bama minus

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Speaker 1: fourteen minus one ten. I'm gonna trust that Matthew metcalf

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Speaker 1: and company that they know something that they believe. Alabama,

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Speaker 1: I'm defensively, is gonna take care of business. Here is

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Speaker 1: why I'm laying Alabama minus fourteen. I think it's on

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Speaker 1: the defense for Alabama, not the offense. I don't mind

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Speaker 1: a play on the under in this game. In fact,

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Speaker 1: I may come back with an Alabama first half bet

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Speaker 1: for a half a unit and an under bet on

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Speaker 1: Saturday for Saturday's podcast. When the first half line comes

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Speaker 1: out for Bama Ole Miss, I may jump on Alabama.

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Speaker 1: If it's seven, if it gets to be like they

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Speaker 1: always do it and they juice it up to like

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Speaker 1: eight or nine, I'm gonna be angry. But if it's

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Speaker 1: seven Alabama minus seven, I'm gonna throw a half a

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Speaker 1: unit at it. And if it's on the under, seventy

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Speaker 1: nine eighty points. It was eighty at the open. It

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Speaker 1: was bet down to seventy seven and a half. Public

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Speaker 1: came back in and drove it back up to seventy nine.

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Speaker 1: If we get back to eighty eighty one points, I'm

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Speaker 1: coming on the under. Okay, Alabama Mississippi on the under

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Speaker 1: for a half a unit as well, But that for

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Speaker 1: tomorrow's podcast. For today, I'm laying the fourteen points with

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Speaker 1: Alabama minus fourteen. Okay. No, some books are at four

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Speaker 1: and a half, some books are at fourteen. I don't

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Speaker 1: mindy if you wait to see if you can grab

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Speaker 1: the fourteen I got. I found it in Vegas at fourteen.

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Speaker 1: I grabbed it. But I think that half a point matters. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I think it's an important half a point. They get

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Speaker 1: to fourteen for Alabama, but I think they win the

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Speaker 1: game by seventeen plus. And really it comes down to

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Speaker 1: the Bama defense. Look, I know what Matt corral is.

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Speaker 1: I know that one hundred and eleven points were scored

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Speaker 1: last year. But Alabama's offense last year was much different

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Speaker 1: than this year. This year you got Brian Robinson. This year,

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Speaker 1: you got Blake Young. This year you got Bryce Young.

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Speaker 1: Excuse me, this year, you got Bryce Young. This year

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Speaker 1: you've got Michian Company. They've got a bunch of good players.

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Speaker 1: It's Alabama, Okay, but they don't have you know what,

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Speaker 1: it was, five first round picks last year. They don't

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Speaker 1: have that on the offense. Okay, offensive lineman. This Bama

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Speaker 1: offense is scoring forty six points per game. That is

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Speaker 1: third best in the country. Ole Miss is the number

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Speaker 1: one offense of the country now, fifty two points per game.

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Speaker 1: They have six hundred and thirty eight yards per game.

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Speaker 1: They're averaging seven point five yards per play. That's fourth best. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Alabama's defense is giving up four points seven yards per play, right,

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Speaker 1: thirtieth best. Something's got to give. But Bama's offense seven

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Speaker 1: points seven yards per game and four hundred and seventy

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Speaker 1: nine yards per offense that's twentieth best. And third down

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Speaker 1: conversion their fourth best in the country and third down conversion.

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Speaker 1: Ole Miss's defense has played pretty darn good. But really,

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Speaker 1: if you look at who they've played since the win

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Speaker 1: against Louisville, it's not exactly you know, Oh my gosh.

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Speaker 1: They've played Appalation State in Tulane. Okay, they scored fifty

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Speaker 1: four points on app State. They've scored sixty one points

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Speaker 1: on two lane, forty three points on Louisville. Bad defense,

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Speaker 1: bad defense, bad defense. Okay, now I see it was

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Speaker 1: Austin p. Sorry, it wasn't a play State was Austin Pe.

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Speaker 1: They played even worse. This is Alabama on the road

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Speaker 1: in Tuscaloosa. Do you really think that Nick nick Saban's

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Speaker 1: gonna be comfortable allowing ole miss to put up forty

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Speaker 1: eight points? Again, Nick nick Saban's gonna allow Lane Kiffen

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Speaker 1: to put this many points up. Matt corral here not.

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Speaker 1: I just don't see it. Okay. I think Alabama's offense

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Speaker 1: is gonna score a lot on ole Miss's defense, and

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Speaker 1: I think Alabama's gonna run the ball a ton. I

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Speaker 1: think Alabama's gonna be a real big problem, and I

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Speaker 1: think Bama covers this fourteen point line I really do.

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Speaker 1: I think Alabama's gonna be able to do with it

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Speaker 1: whatever they want on offense against Ole Miss. And I'm

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Speaker 1: just not sold that this offense for the Rebels is

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Speaker 1: gonna go int Tuscaloosa and hang sixty on them or

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Speaker 1: like Sobama, like play this out for a second. Total

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Speaker 1: seventy nine right now? Okay, how many points is Bama

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Speaker 1: gonna score? Let's just start with thirty five? Okay, let's

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Speaker 1: start thirty five points minimum for Alabama. How many points

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Speaker 1: is all Miss gonna score? Okay, let's say, okay they score.

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Speaker 1: Let's say twenty eight points Okay minimum. How likely is

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Speaker 1: it that Bama scores forty? Pretty high? Do you think

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Speaker 1: Ole Miss is gonna match that? I think Ole Miss

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Speaker 1: is gonna go in there and score them. I just

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Speaker 1: I just don't see it. I think they're gonna be

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Speaker 1: in for a real frustrating day when you give up

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Speaker 1: that many points last year. Bama's defense is better this

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Speaker 1: year than last year. In my opinion, Baama's offense is

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Speaker 1: not as good. They're going to run the ball more,

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Speaker 1: They're not going to try to go blow for blow

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Speaker 1: here with Matt Carrall and All Miss my opinion, I

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Speaker 1: think they're going to try to make them make mistakes.

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Speaker 1: And this is really where ole Miss. I think misses

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Speaker 1: the two first round picks. Basically they had off last

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Speaker 1: year's team with the wide receivers. So look, they're going

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Speaker 1: to score. How many points are they going to score?

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Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a game that

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Speaker 1: Bama is perfectly comfortable playing ball control and just running

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Speaker 1: the ball down their throat and dominating them and running

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Speaker 1: this ole Miss team into the ground and using this

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Speaker 1: offense that right now is averaging four point five yards

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Speaker 1: per rush and one hundred and fifty yards on the

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Speaker 1: ground per game. And Bama is Alabama. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: go back to this opening number is twenty. I think

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Speaker 1: Circus Sports knew something. Alabama minus fourteen full unit, one unit,

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Speaker 1: Alabama at home minus fourteen against ole Miss. We're laying

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Speaker 1: it here with the Crimson tide against ole Miss, going

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Speaker 1: against what everybody else is saying, popular Dog, public dog.

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Speaker 1: Very comfortable laying it with the number one team of

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Speaker 1: the country at home. This was at ole Miss. Might

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Speaker 1: feel differently, but it's at Alabama. Like I mentioned, we

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Speaker 1: could come back tomorrow with another whole unit on this

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Speaker 1: game in terms of the under in the first half

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Speaker 1: for Alabama and Ole Miss. Will may have two full

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Speaker 1: units going on this one football game. It's the biggest

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Speaker 1: game of the weekend. Three thirty eater time kick on CBS. Okay,

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Speaker 1: second play for one unit. Let's talk about and I've

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Speaker 1: been waiting here to find out about Arkansas's injuries. Arkansas

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Speaker 1: and Georgia kJ Jefferson and Treylon Burks. kJ Jefferson is

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Speaker 1: dealing with a knee injury that he suffered against Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M. Now. Sam Pittman said he was sore,

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Speaker 1: but he wasn't going to practice the week, but he

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Speaker 1: thought he would be good to go come Saturday. He

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Speaker 1: reiterated that during the week, and I had to talk

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Speaker 1: to some of my people down in and around the

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Speaker 1: Arkansas program who aren't in Arkansas but cover the SEC

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Speaker 1: and what they're hearing is that kJ Jefferson is going

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Speaker 1: to play. Okay, Now, that could be wrong. I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying they have any inside information, just people I'm talking to.

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Speaker 1: They're hearing that he's going to play. He may be limited,

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Speaker 1: but he's going to try to play. And well, this

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Speaker 1: is a guy who they really need and he's incredible

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Speaker 1: running the ball, so it's kind of a bummer if

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Speaker 1: his knee is going to be a little bulky. But

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Speaker 1: I think this is an offense if he's running it,

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Speaker 1: I feel really good now. Treylon Burk's number one receiver.

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Speaker 1: He's been limited as well, and if he can't go,

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Speaker 1: that's gonna stink. But this number at eighteen and a half. Boy,

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Speaker 1: you look at some of these numbers. Georgia's defense is

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Speaker 1: only giving up five point eight points per game. Okay,

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Speaker 1: and I get it, they're really really good. But who

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Speaker 1: has Georgia played. They played a Clemson team that has

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Speaker 1: zero offense. They killed UAB, they killed South Caro, and

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Speaker 1: they killed Vanderbilt. Are we just overly impressed with that? Now?

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Speaker 1: The final scores are impressive and the numbers are GOTTI

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Speaker 1: fifty six, forty and sixty two points. But isn't that

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Speaker 1: more of an indictment on UAB, South Carolina and Vanderbilt

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Speaker 1: than it is on how good this offense is going

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Speaker 1: to be? The scored they didn't score an offensive touchdown

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Speaker 1: against Clemson. Okay, they won ten to three because of

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Speaker 1: the pick six that was thrown in that game, and

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Speaker 1: so I'm not so sure this offense can cover this

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Speaker 1: type of number. Eighteen and a half. It was nineteen

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Speaker 1: at one point, Okay, I I don't see this. Arkansas's

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Speaker 1: defense is giving up fourteen point five points per game.

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Speaker 1: That's tenth best in the country. They've played Texas, and

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Speaker 1: they've played Texas A and M. They've played two very

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Speaker 1: good offenses, and they beat them both. They beat them

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Speaker 1: up with their defense. They're only allowing four yards per play,

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Speaker 1: that's ninth best in the country. Two hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: seven yard total offense, that's ninth best in the country.

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Speaker 1: And they're really tough on third down, only allowing twenty

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Speaker 1: eight percent conversion that's eleventh best in the country. That's

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Speaker 1: right behind Georgia. Georgia's at twenty eight percent, that's ten

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Speaker 1: best in the country. I mean, you're twenty eight point

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Speaker 1: three or twenty eight point zero seven. They're right up

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Speaker 1: against each other. I mean, running on this Georgia defense

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Speaker 1: is super hard. Two point three yards per rush. That's awful,

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Speaker 1: so hard, But it's even harder to pass on these

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Speaker 1: guys right now, at four point six yards per pass play,

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Speaker 1: that's number one in the country. So I mean clearly

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Speaker 1: only giving up one hundred and eighty five yards total

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Speaker 1: offense number one of the country, three point one yards

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Speaker 1: per play, number one of the country. This team for

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Speaker 1: Arkansas has got to be able to run the football,

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Speaker 1: and that's why kJ Jefferson is so vitally important to

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Speaker 1: play here in this game. I don't mind the under

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Speaker 1: forty nine and a half here in this game if

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Speaker 1: you want to jump in on it. But since I

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Speaker 1: like the under and I'm not betting it because you guys,

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Speaker 1: I don't love betting totals. We bet a total last night.

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Speaker 1: I got a wrong. See, I'm just I don't love

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Speaker 1: betting totals. I'm trying hard this football season to stay

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Speaker 1: away from totals. But Georgia plus eighteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: Until Georgia proves that they can beat good teams and

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Speaker 1: beat the living tar out of them, I'm taking the points.

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Speaker 1: It's a popular dog. I understand this. But now that

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Speaker 1: I'm comfortable that I believe that kJ Jefferson is gonna play,

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Speaker 1: give me the eighteen and a half points here. You

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Speaker 1: may get nineteen on Arkansas on the road at Georgia

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Speaker 1: and just ride this Arkansas defense to keep this to

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Speaker 1: be like a twenty to ten type of win for

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Speaker 1: Georgia and we're fine with it, right, ten point win,

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Speaker 1: low scoring game. Again, I think this Arkansas defense and

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Speaker 1: can keep them in the game, and as long as

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Speaker 1: they're not giving up real big plays, I think there

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Speaker 1: could be one or two big play opportunities for Arkansas

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Speaker 1: to pop it, and I mean they could be in

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Speaker 1: the game late. I just think Sam Pittman's got a

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Speaker 1: really special team going. And if you could have the

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Speaker 1: number one wide out in the starting quarterback, even at

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Speaker 1: eighty percent for this game, I think they're live. I

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Speaker 1: think it's gonna be right there because I just don't

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Speaker 1: trust JT. Daniels, who's dealing with a lot injury of

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Speaker 1: his own. I mean, he may not be able to

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Speaker 1: play as effectively or throw the ball as effectively as

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Speaker 1: you would like. He's got a lot injury that's been

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Speaker 1: bothering him. He's not practicing for Georgia, so that also

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Speaker 1: could be somewhat of an issue. I mean, Georgia is

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Speaker 1: averaging seven yards per play everything, nine point six yards

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Speaker 1: per pass play, that's fifteenth best in the country, four

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Speaker 1: point nine yards per rush, but Arkansas three point six

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Speaker 1: yards defensively given up. That's forty fourth in the country

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Speaker 1: to these teams. Top five passing, top five defensive rushing.

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Speaker 1: Something's got to give, but passing it's hard to throw

365
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Speaker 1: on Arkansas. This is what Texas learned four point seven

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Speaker 1: yards per pass play. That's second best in the country,

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Speaker 1: only behind Georgia, who's number one at four point six yards.

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Speaker 1: So things a defensive battle. If we like both defenses

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Speaker 1: and unders, you got to take the points here plus

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Speaker 1: eighteen and a half Arkansas one full unit up against Georgia,

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Speaker 1: plus eighteen and a half for the razorbacks up against Georgia. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So we reiterate here for the don't bet a parlay

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Speaker 1: parlay Dodger's money line Friday night, Houston plus three and

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Speaker 1: a half at Tulsa BYU money line under Iowa Maryland

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Speaker 1: forty seven and a half for a four leg plus

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Speaker 1: six hundred. Don't bet a parlay parlay Alabama minus fourteen

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Speaker 1: at home against Ole Miss and we're taking Arkansas at

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Speaker 1: plus eighteen and a half on the road at Georgia. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Alabama at home, home, favorite road dog, we're taking that.

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Speaker 1: With Arkansas and Georgia coming up and kJ Jefferson. If

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Speaker 1: I'm wrong about kJ Jefferson he's out and he doesn't play,

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Speaker 1: I would say eject from this bet, and I probably

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Speaker 1: will eject from the bet. Okay, so what I've told

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Speaker 1: I'm comfortable betting it now. But if kJ Jefferson gets

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Speaker 1: ruled out, tell you this right now, I will eject

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Speaker 1: from this bet. If kJ Jefferson cannot play, I will

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Speaker 1: go ahead and bet the other side and just get

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Speaker 1: myself out of to get out of the bet entirely.

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Speaker 1: If he does get scratched and he cannot play, but

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Speaker 1: since I was told that he probably will play, we'll

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Speaker 1: lay it. We'll take We'll take the points rather plus

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Speaker 1: eighteen and a half. Arkansas on the road at Georgia,

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Speaker 1: Alabama minas fourteen up against Ole Myths and the parlay

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Speaker 1: for the don't bet a Parlay parlay on a Friday.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Paroltz. You guys can follow me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at sports dot Matt. Each say morning, it's

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Speaker 1: the Daily Juice podcast right here on bettingpros dot Com.

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Speaker 1: Always be brought to you by bet MGM