1 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to this brand new episode of Phishology, 2 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: where we go in depth on a bad stats for 3 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:24,320 Speaker 1: your Miami Marlins. 4 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 2: I am Daniel Rodriguez and as always I am joined 5 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 2: by mister Eli Sussman and mister Lewis addiol Weiss. Guys, 6 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 2: how are you feeling? Big news broke a few days ago? 7 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 2: How are you guys feeling getting ready to talk about 8 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:38,840 Speaker 2: this topic? 9 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 3: Recording this on Valentine's Day? We are making love to. 10 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 4: The numbers let go, So we do this right now. 11 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:48,840 Speaker 3: And if you're listening to this, this means you love 12 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 3: the analytical side of it as well. So just a 13 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 3: couple of big topics that we could dive really deep 14 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:55,639 Speaker 3: into a pleasure as always, guys. 15 00:00:56,720 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 2: Yes, tonight, you guys are my Valentinees doing this this 16 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 2: episode of Physiology and h One thing I love for 17 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 2: sure is the trade Kim Ang did over the weekend, 18 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 2: something JJ Bleday to the Oakland Athletics for reliever AJ Puck, 19 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 2: a swap a former top ten top six guys in the. 20 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: First round a few years ago. 21 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 2: Lewis, you did your due diligence on this going studying 22 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 2: AJ Puck, You're gonna do a season preview, talk to 23 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 2: me about this trade. Give me the Marlins side of 24 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 2: this in acquiring AJ Puck. 25 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think if you're talking about who 26 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 5: won out here, I mean, it's a one to one swap, 27 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 5: so you're not really going to take long for a 28 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 5: winner to be determined in that swapping. I think the 29 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 5: Marlins made out very well here, I think. And it's interesting, 30 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 5: you know, I've been kind of saying this and mulling 31 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 5: over this thought ever since they acquired Puck. But you're 32 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 5: gonna you're kind of talking about now a third left 33 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 5: in a bullpen, of now a bullpen, and that features 34 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 5: three lefties who primarily throw the same two pitches. And 35 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 5: I think Puck and I wrote that he has excellent 36 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 5: two pitch potential and that he would likely be a 37 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 5: good kind of like eighth inning option for them, But 38 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 5: you're talking about hot, mid to high nineties fastball. I 39 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:18,239 Speaker 5: believe his fastball played up in this year than it 40 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 5: had over the last couple of years, you know, just 41 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 5: by battling injuries. I believe he was a recent Tommy 42 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,920 Speaker 5: John guy. But ninety six point six, if I'm not mistaken, 43 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 5: on the average fastball Velo a very good slider. I mean, 44 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 5: if you want to talk about run value of his 45 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 5: slider was worth minus six runs, which is very good. 46 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 5: But I think, like if he can harness those two pitches, 47 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 5: because the fastball, you know what points was hittable. But 48 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 5: if you can kind of harness those two pitches and 49 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 5: further you know, perfect that slider, I think he's got 50 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 5: a chance to be an excellent two pitch pitcher. 51 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 6: If Tony steps in puck, is ready in the first pitch, 52 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 6: is hit softly on the infield on the first pitch, 53 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 6: and that's the ball game. How about that? We built 54 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 6: up all that drama on one pitch, Otani hit a 55 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 6: little pop up, and that is the ballgame, Folks. 56 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,799 Speaker 5: When you pair him with Scott and Steven Oker in 57 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 5: the bullpen, you're talking about three lefties who are primarily 58 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,959 Speaker 5: fast balls slider. But that being said, you know he's 59 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 5: got less than one hundred innings under his belt in 60 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 5: the Big Ley's believe it's ninety one innings if I'm 61 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 5: not mistaken, in one hundred and five strikeouts, which is 62 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 5: very encouraging as far as ballpark goes. Though, Like, if 63 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 5: you were to ask me, like how he may adjust 64 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 5: a lone Depot park. If you look at expected home 65 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 5: runs on baseball Savan, you could kind of see where 66 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 5: his flyball metrics are. Believe it's about like one in 67 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 5: every ten five balls is a home run for him. 68 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 5: If I'm not mistaken, he's kind of like, you know, 69 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 5: lone depot park doesn't play any differently. I believe he 70 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 5: had nine expected home runs in Oakland and nine in Miami. 71 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 5: If you projected the season, he kind of had uh 72 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 5: in Miami. Obviously, you know the home run rate. It 73 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 5: wasn't terrible, it was like sub one, but it was 74 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 5: like right at point nine will make The fact that 75 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 5: his fit bordered on three point seven and the expected 76 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 5: ra kind of told us he was that kind of pitcher. 77 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,119 Speaker 5: But personally, I think if the fastball can maybe play 78 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 5: up a little bit better and he kind of goes 79 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 5: away from that sinker a little bit, he's got a 80 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,919 Speaker 5: chance to be arguably the best lefty in that bullpen. 81 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:20,839 Speaker 5: Though I believe that Scott is of those three, is 82 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 5: the one that does have the best stuff. But yeah, 83 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 5: I'm very encouraged by this trade, especially given the fact 84 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 5: that they only had to give up you know, JJ 85 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,280 Speaker 5: blade for it, and we'll talk about him later, But 86 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 5: ELI wanted to know your thoughts on this as well. 87 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 3: This was a particular player that came to mind for me. 88 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 3: I mean, the stead I want to get into is 89 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 3: his salary as well. 90 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 4: The fact that the Marlins. 91 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 3: Were pretty clear about their intentions that they needed to 92 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 3: improve the bullpen this offseason. But as we saw from 93 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:53,920 Speaker 3: the very start of the offseason, the pricing for especially 94 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 3: free agent relievers was even more excessive than I think 95 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,919 Speaker 3: anybody could have anticipated. We can say pretty clearly that 96 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 3: the Marlins just felt that wasn't efficient enough for them. 97 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 3: For a player like this in a conventional reliever role, 98 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 3: you're not going to pitch more than seventy innings a season, 99 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 3: if that at most, and for that money. This team, 100 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,599 Speaker 3: based on where they are limited payroll wise, if you 101 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 3: have less than one hundred million dollars to divvy up, 102 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 3: they've made this decision that they're not going to give 103 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 3: a big chunk of that to any one pitcher. Right now, 104 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 3: the highest paid reliever on the Marlins roster, for someone 105 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 3: that's actually getting paid by the Marlins, is Dylan Floro, 106 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 3: and that's at less than four million dollars. They were 107 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 3: shopping and they didn't find anybody that they felt was 108 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 3: efficient enough. So what they do ultimately is go the 109 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 3: trade route. And this is a guy that even though 110 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 3: he is now what seven years removed from the draft, 111 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 3: he's still pre arbitration eligible, so he's still earning barely 112 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 3: the league minimum salary. 113 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:56,160 Speaker 4: This upcoming season. 114 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 3: And I think that's just a big component is why 115 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 3: they want wound up in this trade situation, is that 116 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 3: he is somebody who stuff wise, he does compare pretty 117 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:10,360 Speaker 3: well to some of the more prominent accomplished relievers, and 118 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:15,039 Speaker 3: they are just betting on his potential and feeling that 119 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 3: in addition to what he mentioned that potentially the pitch 120 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 3: arsenal could expand a little bit to include a change 121 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 3: up that he had when he was being developed as 122 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 3: a starter. This is a guy that if he had 123 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 3: stayed in Oakland this upcoming season, he likely would have 124 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 3: gotten some starting opportunities. He was, if we haven't already 125 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 3: mentioned it, the former sixth overall pick in the twenty 126 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 3: sixteen MLB draft. And when you're drafted that, hi's because 127 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 3: you have a lot of starter traits in you. Now, 128 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:45,839 Speaker 3: for the Marlins, he's not going to start, but the 129 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 3: promise of having that deep pitch mix that will allow 130 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 3: him to be successful against both lefties and righty's is 131 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 3: going to be very important. For the time being. You 132 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 3: feel really confident in what he can do against lefties 133 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 3: insane handed matchups because of the slider, as you meant 134 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,919 Speaker 3: as somebody who is six foot seven and gets a 135 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 3: ton of extension off the mound as well, let me 136 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 3: see if I had the number over seven feet of 137 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 3: extension on his delivery that ninety six file too exactly, 138 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 3: and it reminds me a lot. I don't mean to 139 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 3: cull you off, it reminds me a lot. 140 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 5: With his mechanics, they're a little harky jerky for a 141 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 5: lefty Jake Deekman like when you look at like not 142 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 5: the Jake Deemon from twenty twenty two that led all 143 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 5: relievers minimum fifty ending. It's with six point six walks 144 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 5: for nine, tied with a recently mentioned Tanner Scott. But 145 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 5: mechanics wise, you know, I'll let you get back to 146 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 5: a high nineties fastball, good slider, big extension because you 147 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 5: know he's six foot seven, so he's tall, but ninety 148 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 5: six percentile and extension, and that's gonna help, especially when 149 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 5: your fastballs in the ninetieth percentile. 150 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 3: I know that Craig mission reporting this deal, he threw 151 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 3: out the name Josh Hater, and immediately I kind of 152 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 3: cringed at that, because that's not fair. That's completely unrealistic 153 00:07:56,040 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 3: for anybody, especially somebody with relatively short track record. I 154 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 3: think Deakman is kind of in that vein. You're gonna 155 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 3: have some questions about his control moving forward. That's probably 156 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 3: always going to be a below average trait of his. 157 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 3: The question is whether everything else, whether the batted balls, 158 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 3: whether the swing and miss is high enough to still 159 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 3: make him a very good reliever, to make him a 160 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 3: legitimate setup man, to make him. 161 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 4: One of the better overall believers in this pen. 162 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, with AJ Puck, how do you guys feel him? 163 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 2: You mentioned in the bullpen? Where do you guys really 164 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 2: see him? Do you guys see him as a setup 165 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 2: guy making Hill and Floral as the closer? Do you 166 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 2: want to maybe earlier right after the starter? How would 167 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 2: you guys fit in Aj Puck in this bullmen? 168 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:45,439 Speaker 5: So the way I see it, he's a seventh inning 169 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 5: guy with closer potential it just remains to be seen 170 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 5: if he's a lot of those opportunities in enter Scot 171 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 5: continues to struggle, if maybe that's something the Martins have 172 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 5: to do. 173 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 3: Be it Yeah with Puck, So I don't really think 174 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 3: about it as an Enning's situation with him as when 175 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 3: exactly comes in. More so is how often you'd feel 176 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 3: comfortable using him mid ending and with inherited runners, like 177 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 3: looking at how the A's used him last year, and 178 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 3: to be clear with everybody, so much of his major 179 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 3: league experience was only last year. That was the vast 180 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 3: majority of his career. Ennix came in twenty twenty two. 181 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 3: Early on in the year, they gave him a lot 182 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 3: of opportunities with inherited runners, and he had the slump 183 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 3: in the middle of the year where it really got 184 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 3: out of hands for him. But after that, the entire 185 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 3: second half of the season, he was kind of lights 186 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 3: out in those situations. When you're talking about how he 187 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 3: fits together with the other pieces in this bullpen, I think, 188 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 3: more so than a lot of these other options, that 189 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 3: he's going to be a guy until perhaps he settles 190 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:49,959 Speaker 3: in as a full time closer. Like he's somebody that 191 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 3: I think skip, Schumacher should be comfortable using in those 192 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 3: tight situations when you need to strike out. Despite what 193 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 3: I mentioned about potential control issues, I mean relative to 194 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 3: the other pictures in this bullpen, you know, it's not 195 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 3: necessarily all that much worse than Okert and certainly not 196 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 3: as bad as Scott in that department. So with him, 197 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 3: I think you could use them in a whole variety 198 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 3: of situations, given that he has at least three different 199 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 3: pitch types that you could use, and that he now 200 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 3: has experienced last year at least during the second half 201 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 3: of the year very very successful, even when he is 202 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:29,959 Speaker 3: inheriting runners and pitching in high leverage situations. I think 203 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 3: that's a big part of the appeal as well, is 204 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:35,319 Speaker 3: that he really does He is somewhat of a Swiss 205 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 3: army knife that he could fill a lot of different 206 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 3: situations and do it in a way that certainly compared 207 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:46,839 Speaker 3: to the outgoing relievers like Richard Bleier and players that 208 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 3: are now are going to be squeezed down to the 209 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,840 Speaker 3: miners to start the year, whether it's like Huascar Brasobon 210 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 3: or Andrew Nardi other pictures even below him that have 211 00:10:55,559 --> 00:11:00,719 Speaker 3: less experience, I think it's a pretty clear cut improvement 212 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 3: to the pen as long as he's healthy, and that's 213 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 3: ultimately gonna be the biggest question is can he stay 214 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,319 Speaker 3: healthy just as he did in twenty twenty two. 215 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, and with Aj Puck, I was just looking up. 216 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 2: We mentioned earlier his pitches, and the one thing I 217 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 2: wanted to bring you up is I was looking at it. 218 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:19,560 Speaker 2: You look at his fastball he threw it five hundred 219 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 2: and thirteen times last season, slider for eighty nine, sinker 220 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 2: one forty nine, and then you go to change up 221 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 2: and it's just zero point one percent. You might think, oh, 222 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 2: it's just a couple pitches. No, it is one pitch. 223 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 2: He threw it one time in the twenty twenty two season. 224 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 2: Is that something that me mel could do for Aj Puck? 225 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 2: I haven't used that change up a little more so 226 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 2: he doesn't really have to rely on those first two pitches. 227 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 5: I think it's a good complimentary pitch. But you know, 228 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 5: a lot of that, too, is predicated on what his 229 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 5: role will be in the long term. We know as 230 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 5: a starter, you know, primarily the old adages that you 231 00:11:56,240 --> 00:12:00,679 Speaker 5: need three pitches to really concede or succeed, and consistently 232 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 5: perform at the big league level as a reliever. Obviously, 233 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 5: we know that to be two and a half pitches, 234 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 5: and I guess that what you can kind of say 235 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 5: about his sinker, and that's kind of like his half 236 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 5: or his third pitch. So I don't know, I mean, Stodham, 237 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 5: I mean, Mel did a great job of Pablo Lopez 238 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 5: that not perfecting, but kind of conjuring up one of 239 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 5: the better changees in the game. And what Pablo had, 240 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 5: and we know other pitchers on that team, Edward Cabrera 241 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 5: has got a very hard change up. I don't know 242 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 5: how much of Melsottomeyer's credit could be given to that, 243 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:37,680 Speaker 5: or is that just an organizational thing overall? You know, 244 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 5: I don't even think if he's very very rarely featuring 245 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:42,679 Speaker 5: the pitch, and if you go back in the past 246 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 5: and look at this twenty or so innings he pitched 247 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:48,959 Speaker 5: in the previous two seasons, he didn't really feature the 248 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 5: pitch all that much to begin with, So I mean, 249 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,839 Speaker 5: like maybe that's just him kind of gradually phasing it out, 250 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 5: and maybe Oakland took that approach with him in twenty 251 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 5: twenty two. So, you know, to be a successful reliever, 252 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 5: he doesn't need a change up. But you know, the 253 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 5: way I kind of what I kind of said about 254 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:06,839 Speaker 5: him being relatively say to the other two lefties and 255 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:10,720 Speaker 5: ochre in Scott, is that they primarily throw fastball slider. 256 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 5: Can you you know, going back to back with three 257 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 5: consecutive lefties, I know, three battle minimum doesn't necessarily apply 258 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 5: to this as much anymore because there's you know, you 259 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 5: can't really pitch the matchups all that much. But you know, 260 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 5: that'll start to look same me after a while, and 261 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 5: I think that could come back to bite each one 262 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,599 Speaker 5: of those guys. But I think the sinker is a 263 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 5: different dynamic and I don't so I necessarily don't necessarily 264 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 5: think he needs the changeup. But you know, if he further, 265 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,840 Speaker 5: you know, I mean, if he improves upon it, then 266 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 5: there's no reason as to why he can't do it. 267 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 5: I mean, we've seen guys like Mark Milanson pitched out 268 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:49,839 Speaker 5: of the bullpen with four pitches. I mean, Floro is 269 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 5: a multi pitch guy, so you know who knows. But 270 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 5: I don't necessarily see that being a make or break 271 00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 5: asset in his skill set for twenty twenty three. 272 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 3: Right, It's just about finding a solution against righty batters. 273 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 3: If he's as good against righty's as he is against lefties, 274 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 3: then he reaches his ceiling and being potentially the best 275 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 3: reliever in this pen and potentially elite even compared to 276 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 3: league averages if he's as effective against righty's. Right now, 277 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,440 Speaker 3: what makes him really good against lefties is not just 278 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 3: this lighter, but also his fastball is just extremely difficult 279 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 3: for them to catch up to because they have less 280 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 3: time to react, and that pitch against righty's is not 281 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 3: as valuable. So it's either going to be that sinker 282 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 3: becoming more consistent for him. I saw some tape on 283 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 3: the sinker and it's just inconsistent with the way he 284 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 3: locates it in the potential for it to get swings 285 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 3: and misses, it's not nearly as high. So either that 286 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 3: pitch has to improve or he probably will have to 287 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 3: dive more into the change if there will be some 288 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 3: sort of adjustment there, and I'll be curious to see 289 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 3: what that is. 290 00:14:57,440 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, and to go from that side of the trade 291 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 2: for the Marlins and gaining aj Puck, we have to 292 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 2: talk about who they are giving up, and that is 293 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 2: JJ Bladay, another top six draftee a few years ago. 294 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 2: Did not have the best of time with the Marlins 295 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 2: in terms of being in the majors batting, I believe, 296 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 2: under two hundred, not really performing as well as many 297 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 2: would thought when he was first drafted to Miami. Lewis, 298 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 2: give me your thoughts on j on the JJ Bledee 299 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 2: experience for the Marlins. 300 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 5: You know, it started very encouragingly. I believe he walked 301 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 5: in his first play appearance in Pittsburgh, and then he 302 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 5: started the next day and had a double and made 303 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 5: a couple of nice catches playing center field, and you know, 304 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 5: a position he hadn't really played that much in college. 305 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 5: He played it a little bit in the miners I 306 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 5: believe it was about sixty or so games, and then 307 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 5: came to the majors and he saw extended time there. 308 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 5: But obviously we saw it to be a learning experience, 309 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 5: to say the least. I mean, it's hard to learn 310 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 5: on the fly, especially when you're in the big leagues 311 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 5: and adjusting to so many different and things. 312 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 1: You know, Nay Quinn HiT's it toward right center, that 313 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 1: falls in, Frocke said, and it bounces. 314 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 3: All the way toward the water track. 315 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 1: It Stars McNeill, Nate Quinn goes to third. 316 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 6: The relay throw too late, it bounces away, but Nate 317 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 6: Quinn will stay. But there's no reason why that ball 318 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 6: should bounce over his head. 319 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 5: Obviously, he just didn't perform. You know, he struck out 320 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 5: almost one time. I believe it was sixty seven strikeouts 321 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 5: of sixty five games. The biggest thing that you saw 322 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 5: with him, though, was like, you know, I guess I 323 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 5: don't have access to team scouting reports, but I would 324 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 5: presume that to best, the best way they would presume 325 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 5: to get him out is throwing breaking balls. He was 326 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 5: horrendous against the breaking ball. Believe he hit ninety eight 327 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 5: against Kurt breaking stuff this year and in twenty twenty two. 328 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 5: And the expecting metrics are like better, but like that's 329 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 5: like saying a pitcher would an eight year or a 330 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 5: was better with a six fit Like he hit the 331 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 5: expected batting averages like one to ninety. There was like 332 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 5: four hundred and seventeen hitters who had fifty or more, 333 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 5: or there was one hundred and fifty breaking balls thrown 334 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 5: to them that ended at bats. He ranked three hundred 335 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 5: and ninety eighth, and expected batting average not good. I mean, yeah, 336 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 5: it's just just a lot didn't go well with him. 337 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 5: I mean, he didn't barrel the ball that much. He 338 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 5: was you know, he's more middle of the pack when 339 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 5: you talk about barreling baseballs. But that being said, like 340 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:26,119 Speaker 5: he just you know, there were times when he showed, 341 00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:28,399 Speaker 5: you know, promise. I mean he walked eleven percent of 342 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 5: the time. I think, you know, if he say he 343 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 5: becomes a fourth outfielder. That is a skill set that 344 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 5: kept guys like Matt Joyce in the big leagues for 345 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 5: a long time because they were able to, you know, 346 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,159 Speaker 5: prove that they you know, had deficiencies, but they were 347 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,360 Speaker 5: able to kind of mask them a little bit with 348 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 5: played discipline. And he had that to an extent. That 349 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 5: being said, though, like the overall skills that he had 350 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 5: a five eighty six OPS in sixty five games. That's 351 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 5: not going to play And then I you know, I 352 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 5: don't have much faith in him long term either because 353 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 5: he's going to go to Oakland another pitcher's part, I 354 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 5: don't expect those number to improve much. But yeah, I 355 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:07,639 Speaker 5: mean the fact that Kim was able to kind of 356 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 5: get a guy like Puck, who, like we've noted, has 357 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 5: questions in his own right, but having to give and 358 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,880 Speaker 5: only having to give up a day. You know, again, 359 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 5: it's just a product of her, you know, wrapping up 360 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,640 Speaker 5: a very strong offseason. And again, who knows what else 361 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 5: she's gonna do, so we'll see. But yeah, you know, 362 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 5: bla day, he'll get a chance to play every day. 363 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,679 Speaker 5: And you know, does he deserve it, I don't know, 364 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 5: But Oakland's bad so he may be among the better 365 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 5: players on their team if he gets you know, four hundred, 366 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 5: five hundred play appearances. But yeah, I mean, you know, 367 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 5: I don't think the experiment uh worked here in Miami, 368 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 5: but you know, best of luck to him in Oakland. 369 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,200 Speaker 3: I always love it when we have stats that kind 370 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,679 Speaker 3: of aligned with the eye tests. And from watching pla 371 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 3: day last year, one takeaway that I think everybody had 372 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 3: is that he misses so many hit able pitches. There 373 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,719 Speaker 3: were so many pitches that looks like he should do 374 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,959 Speaker 3: damage against them that he either missed or a foul dog. 375 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 3: And from Baseball Savant, they keep track of run value 376 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 3: based on the location of a pitch and the strike zone. 377 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 3: I'll send a link to people so they can check 378 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 3: this out themselves, where they define the location of pitches. 379 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 4: I say they're being in. 380 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 3: The heart of the plate, in the heart of the 381 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 3: strike zone, in the shadow of the strike zone, like 382 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:22,880 Speaker 3: right around the corners, chase pitches being obviously just outside 383 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 3: the zone, and waste pitches being ones that are totally 384 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 3: are supposed to be unhittable, or just mistakes. By the 385 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:33,199 Speaker 3: picture Whippla day, it was about these pitches in the 386 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 3: heart of the zone that he just was not producing 387 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 3: value against. He was either coming up empty or when 388 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 3: he was putting them in play, he just was not 389 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,119 Speaker 3: making as strong a contact as it seems like he should. 390 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 3: So this is for us to look at. I put 391 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 3: up this in descending order, the value that these players 392 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 3: or I should say ascending value of how much player 393 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:57,920 Speaker 3: value these guys provided against pitches in the heart of 394 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 3: the plate. Overall this entire season, Jacob Stallings was accumulated. 395 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 3: The most negative value is eighteen runs below average on 396 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 3: pitches in the heart of the zone. Miguel Rojas is 397 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 3: right behind him at seventeen runs below average, and then 398 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,680 Speaker 3: there's Blaeday. Out of all the Marlins hitters in twenty 399 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 3: twenty two, negative fifteen compared to league average on pitches 400 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 3: in the heart of the zone. 401 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 4: This is a. 402 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,120 Speaker 3: Cumulative stat, so you get more playing time, you could 403 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 3: create more negative value. And the only players that were 404 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 3: worse than Bladay were ones that were playing basically every 405 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 3: day over the course of the season on a per 406 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 3: pitch basis. There was no Marlin that was worse against 407 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 3: these type of pitches than bla day was. This is 408 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 3: a bright red flag where I just don't know how 409 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 3: fixable this is. If you can't do damage against the 410 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 3: worst located pitches that you get in the majors, there's 411 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 3: only so many adjustments you can make mechanically and philosophically to. 412 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 4: Change that around. 413 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,719 Speaker 3: I mean to even get within striking distance of league average, 414 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 3: much less make it a strength of your game. In 415 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,240 Speaker 3: his case, much was made at this time a year 416 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 3: ago about how much stronger he was. He had that 417 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,640 Speaker 3: Lewis physique entering spring training, which is much different than 418 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 3: what he had earlier in his professional career, and that's 419 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 3: just not necessarily a baseball relevant detail about him, And 420 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 3: I wonder if he does want to trim down a 421 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:28,080 Speaker 3: little bit just so that he is that his part, 422 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 3: he can moved through the zone more efficiently and that 423 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 3: his upper body maybe got to a point where it 424 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 3: just wasn't conducive to allowing him to catch up to 425 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 3: major league caliber velocity. It was that combination you mentioned 426 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 3: the breaking calls. It was just every type of pitch type. 427 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 3: When pitchers made mistakes, he just couldn't do anything about it. 428 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,400 Speaker 3: And such a broad and such an important problem that 429 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,160 Speaker 3: I can understand why his value was so low, even 430 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 3: for a guy that very recently was a super high 431 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:03,199 Speaker 3: draft pick like him. I'll finished by saying that I 432 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,400 Speaker 3: thought this trade should have been made at the previous 433 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 3: trade deadline. I want to clump Bladay with some other 434 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:15,200 Speaker 3: comparable players like Peydon Burdick, Jesus Sanchez, Gerar, and Cronasion. 435 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 3: The Marlins had this surplus of young corner outfielders building 436 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 3: up with the veterans that they already had under contract. 437 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 3: There just was no way to get these guys all 438 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 3: significant major league playing time, even if they showed themselves 439 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:31,639 Speaker 3: to be promising as rookies. I wanted the Marlins to 440 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 3: be a little more proactive to make that kind of 441 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 3: deal before these guys struggled at the big league level 442 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 3: and hurt their value. It seems even at the time 443 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,960 Speaker 3: like a pretty clear opportunity didn't have to be ble today, 444 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 3: But I would have liked to see them make this 445 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 3: choice earlier while all those guys had more trade value 446 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 3: than they did during this upcoming offseason. 447 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 4: So this is just one of those little. 448 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,880 Speaker 3: Inefficiencies that I think comes back to her a team 449 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 3: in the aggregate. If you do enough of these type 450 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 3: of deals where the timing is a little off, where 451 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,679 Speaker 3: you're not getting probably what you should be getting for 452 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 3: players that have this type of raw talent, it ends 453 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 3: up catching up to you with what you all the 454 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 3: resources you have to build a complete team together. So 455 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,719 Speaker 3: at Whichet is some good luck. He's a guy that 456 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 3: really understands the game at a detailed level, So I 457 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 3: wouldn't put it past him to make some pretty bold 458 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 3: adjustments and actually come out on the other side of 459 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:29,360 Speaker 3: having a pretty long major league career. I just think 460 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 3: this is mishandled on a number of levels with him 461 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,120 Speaker 3: coming up through the farm system, and then this decision 462 00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 3: to move him probably could have been made earlier if 463 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,399 Speaker 3: they had noticed the same kind of deficiencies that we 464 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 3: were able to see ourselves as a rookie. 465 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:48,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, we wished best here for a digital day, but 466 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,479 Speaker 2: I think could do pretty good in Oakland. Like Lewis mentioned, 467 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 2: he might get four or five hundred played appearances, and 468 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 2: let's see what he could do with that new ballpark, 469 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:59,719 Speaker 2: new atmosphere, new culture over there in the athletics. But 470 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 2: go from that, let's go into a little bit of 471 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 2: kind of the projections that we saw that came out 472 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:11,640 Speaker 2: earlier today with PETCOA and talking about the Marlins hitters 473 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 2: and pitchers. Lewis, I want you to talk to me 474 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:18,159 Speaker 2: a little bit. What really stood out to you between 475 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,360 Speaker 2: these projections hitters pitchers for the Marlins or twenty twenty three. 476 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,720 Speaker 5: I mean, it was the one I was kind of 477 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 5: bantering about to you guys earlier, and that's I don't 478 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:31,760 Speaker 5: understand why Tommy nance is projected to be the best 479 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 5: reliever in the bullpen on a run prevention basis. I 480 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:37,440 Speaker 5: believe the projected fifth they had for him was about 481 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 5: three seventy one to a three thirty five and a 482 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:44,680 Speaker 5: fiftieth percentile projection. Listen, if he gives the Marlins that, 483 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 5: I mean, that'd be great because in everything he had 484 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 5: done beforehand and even at times last year, though he 485 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,680 Speaker 5: was encouraging. You know, he walks too many hitters. He 486 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 5: was very hit able in Chicago. I'd be more in 487 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 5: line to look at the Baseball Reference that have him 488 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 5: at about a four YRRA and a one point three WIT, 489 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,359 Speaker 5: like that's the kind of pitcher I envisioned him being. 490 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 5: And to be honest, like you know, with an offseason 491 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 5: where you kind of call guys like Charles Leablanca, Brian 492 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 5: Anderson was non tendered. I was kind of surprised that 493 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,080 Speaker 5: Nance wasn't a guy that they kind of just decided 494 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 5: to cut ties with because of their ability to work 495 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:20,679 Speaker 5: with relievers that way that we kind of saw with 496 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:24,920 Speaker 5: Ochre and hoping art to see with Scott and I 497 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,719 Speaker 5: don't know, I just I didn't really understand that. I 498 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,199 Speaker 5: looked at Sandy's projections as well. Obviously you have to. 499 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,479 Speaker 5: He's kind of like the name beyond gesism on on 500 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,920 Speaker 5: this roster, and you know, his fiftieth percent I was about, 501 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,120 Speaker 5: you know, a four win season, and with the money 502 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 5: that he's making, it's like, can you really argue with 503 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 5: like that level of production. You can't really, especially when 504 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 5: you're striking out about under eight guys per nine innings 505 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,199 Speaker 5: and just so efficiently great the way that he is. 506 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 5: I think, you know, those are two things that stuck 507 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 5: out with me. Beyond that, Jazz's ninety nine percentile projections 508 00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 5: were incredibly fun. The idea of him slugging five point 509 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:05,920 Speaker 5: fifty and posting like a WRC plus in the one fifties. Wow, 510 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 5: that would make him very expensive if the Marlins tried 511 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 5: to extend him. But yeah, I mean, and then Luis 512 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 5: rise was obviously another one. You know, his median was 513 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,360 Speaker 5: about what you'd expect a three and a half win 514 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:21,439 Speaker 5: season with an average over three hundred comfortably. You know, 515 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,440 Speaker 5: he's this generation's Tony Quinn. And there's a bit of 516 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 5: hyperbole in that. People will get mad at me if 517 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,199 Speaker 5: they hear that when this is posted later. But you know, 518 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:34,119 Speaker 5: if everybody's above league average, you know, the way the 519 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 5: ninety nine percent of projections kind of show themselves to be, 520 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 5: this could be a good team. Do I think it's 521 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,639 Speaker 5: the team that will sneak into the playoffs? Absolutely not. 522 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 5: I mean, realistically, like, if you gave me truth serum, 523 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,440 Speaker 5: the Marlins are a seventy five win team, and that's 524 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 5: if a lot of things go right. But you know, 525 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,359 Speaker 5: cynicism is part of the job, and you know they're 526 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 5: just the roster of the way it's constructed. Though it 527 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,959 Speaker 5: is better. I mean, Sherman and Kim did promise and 528 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:00,920 Speaker 5: make good on the promise that the team will look 529 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 5: different on an opening day because there are people that 530 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:07,200 Speaker 5: aren't there. I still don't see this as a playoff team, 531 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,679 Speaker 5: and I think that there's still a ways to go 532 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 5: in the rebuild before you can really firmly say that. 533 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 3: What I want to do is give people some context 534 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 3: about Pokoda. I believe it is the longest running public 535 00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,960 Speaker 3: baseball projections that we've had, going on about twenty years 536 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 3: of this preseason process, always fine tuning their formula to 537 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,880 Speaker 3: add in new factors that they believe that are predictive 538 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 3: at this time. Entering last year, they were projected for 539 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:38,399 Speaker 3: around seventy seven wins, and this year it's actually seventy six. 540 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,359 Speaker 3: So the idea is that even if you miss fire 541 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:46,200 Speaker 3: on one year, they believe that it doesn't necessarily mean 542 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 3: anything for the following year. So even though this team 543 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,119 Speaker 3: is actually projected to be slightly worse than last year's was, 544 00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 3: it doesn't mean that they're going to finish slightly below 545 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,879 Speaker 3: where last team's last year's team actually finished at sixty 546 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:03,679 Speaker 3: nine to ninety three. It's a team that, as you said, 547 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,840 Speaker 3: Pacoda overall has him at seventy six and eighty six, 548 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,720 Speaker 3: where it's still pretty skeptical about the offense, and it's 549 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:17,479 Speaker 3: also skeptical about the rotation beyond Sandy in Lozardo. It 550 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 3: has Sandy as one of the best pitchers in baseball 551 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 3: yet again, and it has Lozardo as somebody that even 552 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 3: the fiftieth percentile projection, it looks a lot like last 553 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,080 Speaker 3: year that they think what he did last year when 554 00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,400 Speaker 3: he was healthy was legit, and that he is going 555 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 3: to be a well above average starting pitcher forever many 556 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 3: endings he goes. There's just some skepticism about the offense, 557 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:43,920 Speaker 3: even more so than I think the average person has, 558 00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 3: even despite the changes. So this is a fun graphic 559 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 3: that I'm going to share with people when we post 560 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 3: this tomorrow. Is when you look at the ninety ninth 561 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 3: percentile projections, which is like about as good as you 562 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 3: could even dream of for these players, then obviously things 563 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:01,360 Speaker 3: go pretty well well. What I like to do when 564 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 3: I analyze it is look at the fiftieth percentile, the 565 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 3: twentieth and the eightieth and between twenty and eighty. That 566 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 3: just gives you it's kind of the realistic positive and 567 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 3: negative spin on it. I think that's like a range 568 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,240 Speaker 3: that really helps me digest to a player is like 569 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:24,239 Speaker 3: using Gene Sigura. For example, the twentieth percentile is an 570 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 3: ops of six point fifty nine, and then if you 571 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 3: go to the eightieth percentile with Sigura, it is seven eleven. 572 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 3: And that feels about right where they're projecting him to 573 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 3: be declining a little bit compared to where he was 574 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 3: last year at the stage Day's career, but on the upside, 575 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:45,720 Speaker 3: like there is still the potential for him to be 576 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 3: in a slightly better than average hitter, especially when you 577 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 3: adjust for the home ballpark. So that's the way that 578 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 3: I look at it is they give us way too 579 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 3: much data than we have any use for it with 580 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 3: these projections, So it's about choosing what he finds to 581 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 3: be particularly But that was one of the key takeaways 582 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:03,960 Speaker 3: you mentioned is what stuck out to me that Tommy 583 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 3: nance is, by a hair projected to be their best reliever. 584 00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 3: Other than that, it was, you know, the questions about 585 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 3: the offense. Pakota loves Louisa Rise. They project him to 586 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:17,240 Speaker 3: be once again the highest batting average in baseball this 587 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,680 Speaker 3: upcoming year, even though there are some questions obviously about 588 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,280 Speaker 3: the power, but they like him as an overall player, 589 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 3: probably more than most do, and they like the volatility 590 00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 3: of Jazz on the upside, like if everything goes right 591 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 3: for Jazz, Pokoto agrees that he could be a super 592 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 3: duper star, and that likes the volatility of guys like 593 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,719 Speaker 3: Jorge Solaire as well and even Hayesu Sanchez that if 594 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 3: things go perfectly for them, that there's enough power in 595 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 3: their cases to really lift up the value of this 596 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 3: entire team. But besides that, I think the big picture 597 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 3: is kind of in alignment with what other people feel. 598 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,800 Speaker 3: That this is the fourth best team in the National 599 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,200 Speaker 3: League East. The playoff odds that Pakoda gives this team 600 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:06,280 Speaker 3: is about four percent for this upcoming year, and if 601 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,080 Speaker 3: you look at it last year to this year, it's 602 00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,040 Speaker 3: even more pessimistic about their playoff chances than they were 603 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:11,880 Speaker 3: at this time. 604 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:12,680 Speaker 4: A year ago. 605 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 3: So it's not what people want to hear, and especially 606 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 3: it feels weird coming off what has been over the 607 00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:23,400 Speaker 3: last month, such an exciting stretch of additions. Whenning now moves, 608 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:29,800 Speaker 3: it feels uncomfortable to take the really high up look 609 00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,840 Speaker 3: and still see where they are relative to the competition 610 00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:39,120 Speaker 3: that they're facing this upcoming season. But other than that, 611 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,520 Speaker 3: the Pakoda has a pretty good track record of like 612 00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:46,280 Speaker 3: falling within the general range of what's to come for 613 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 3: this upcoming season. And yeah, I think it's a useful 614 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:55,239 Speaker 3: reference point when again trying to digest everything that has 615 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 3: changed this upcoming year and trying to identify some breakout 616 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:04,560 Speaker 3: players organization as well. But for this team overall, yeah, 617 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:10,080 Speaker 3: it's this is kind of a dose of reality. This 618 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 3: is just a reminder that despite how exciting the last 619 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:16,680 Speaker 3: few weeks have been, that there's still a pretty significant 620 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:20,840 Speaker 3: gap between them and the powerhouses in the National League eest. 621 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:25,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, and looking at those numbers really quick as a 622 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,360 Speaker 2: final topic, final thought, it's just looking at Jazz's batting average. 623 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 2: I know that's just not really a stat that really 624 00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:32,960 Speaker 2: like to go here and talk about here phychology, but 625 00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 2: it really just stands out when you look at his 626 00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,840 Speaker 2: ninety ninth percentile and it's still his batting average only 627 00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:40,960 Speaker 2: at two sixty six. That kind of really tells you 628 00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 2: what type of player Jazz is in terms of batting, 629 00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:48,240 Speaker 2: where his best season or his best possible outcome is 630 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,560 Speaker 2: just barely over two point fifty. So what if that 631 00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:53,200 Speaker 2: kind of mean to you that you know, Jazz is 632 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,160 Speaker 2: never going to be a guy like Luis Arriat's hitting 633 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 2: over three hundred or they have here Jeans Sigaro two 634 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,840 Speaker 2: to eighty, that his best possible or his must potential 635 00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:05,720 Speaker 2: is someone who barely reaches to seventy in his best season, 636 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 2: or at least projected to. So my question to you is, 637 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:14,360 Speaker 2: do you guys even think that Jazz can reach that 638 00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:18,480 Speaker 2: level in terms of hitting, being someone that can average 639 00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,720 Speaker 2: around two eighty two ninety in his career. 640 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,720 Speaker 4: A reminder of just how young Jazz is. 641 00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,800 Speaker 3: He just turned twenty five, and this is only for 642 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:29,719 Speaker 3: the twenty twenty three season, So if he does, like 643 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 3: have enough take another step forward offensively, then the projections 644 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 3: will change to account for that. This is just regarding 645 00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 3: the upcoming year and how much of a player, the 646 00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 3: type of player that he's going to be moving forward, 647 00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:47,600 Speaker 3: And to be fair, these projections to rely on last 648 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,080 Speaker 3: year's data, last year's run environment, and there are some 649 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 3: pretty significant differences we think going into this year with 650 00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:57,840 Speaker 3: the rule changes, the main one being with the limitations 651 00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,640 Speaker 3: on the shift and Jazz low with a lot of 652 00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:05,600 Speaker 3: these other power hitting, pull happy left handed batters, we 653 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 3: think theoretically that they could gain a significant amount of 654 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,080 Speaker 3: hits just by doing what they already did and no 655 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:16,919 Speaker 3: longer having defenders being allowed to position themselves in those 656 00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,400 Speaker 3: prime spots on the field. So that is still an 657 00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,920 Speaker 3: unknown and that's probably one factor that is not accounted. 658 00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:24,919 Speaker 4: For in these projections. 659 00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,920 Speaker 3: So when we I think that is a good point 660 00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,200 Speaker 3: to make their Daniel that like, I think there is 661 00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:34,760 Speaker 3: a scenario where Jazz does hit higher than two sixty 662 00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:39,960 Speaker 3: six this upcoming year, I personally am a little skeptical 663 00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 3: about that, and I think that is one of the 664 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:46,879 Speaker 3: few weaknesses or limitations of his game, is whether there 665 00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 3: is enough contact skills with him, especially against left handed pitching. 666 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,480 Speaker 3: If he's gonna be playing every single day in facing 667 00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:57,040 Speaker 3: left he's even more than he did last year, he's 668 00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,160 Speaker 3: either going to have to be a better hitter in 669 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,120 Speaker 3: those matchups otherwise they're going to drag down his overall 670 00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 3: numbers as well. So that's probably another factor that we 671 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,839 Speaker 3: need to keep in mind with Jazz, He's I think 672 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:13,440 Speaker 3: it's fair to understand that, like, in my view, it 673 00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 3: seems that he is the one hitter that people are 674 00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:19,200 Speaker 3: most obsessed about heading into this year, and what trying 675 00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:23,680 Speaker 3: to size up exactly how where he stands in the 676 00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:26,920 Speaker 3: pantheon of best players in the league. The big question 677 00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,080 Speaker 3: that he has not answered at all to this point 678 00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:30,919 Speaker 3: in his career is whether he could hit left. He's 679 00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 3: if he's going to get the opportunity to do that, then, Yeah, 680 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,840 Speaker 3: I think that's a really significant question about his game 681 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:40,919 Speaker 3: moving into this year. 682 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,759 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the way I see it, I mean, 683 00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,240 Speaker 5: I think batting average has its place. I don't think 684 00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:53,720 Speaker 5: it's the pre eminent gauge on offensive aptitude for Jazz. 685 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,720 Speaker 5: I think it's kind of like Byron Buxton, where he's 686 00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:58,839 Speaker 5: never going to hit for a high average, and that's 687 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:02,320 Speaker 5: primarily because, and to an a lesser extent of Jazz, 688 00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,400 Speaker 5: he's aggressive at the plate. That being said, I was 689 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:08,320 Speaker 5: listening to Busterer on these podcasts today Baseball Tonight podcast 690 00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,040 Speaker 5: he and Vinnie pass Patino. One first basement for the Royals, 691 00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,319 Speaker 5: who average baseball fans should probably keep an eye on 692 00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,560 Speaker 5: that guy is gonna be very good. Good play discipline, 693 00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,080 Speaker 5: something we'd like to see more guys in the Marlins 694 00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,399 Speaker 5: kind of adapt adopt in their game. But that being said, 695 00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,560 Speaker 5: he talked about how when he was in about Double 696 00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:27,720 Speaker 5: A a couple of years ago, how they played under 697 00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,080 Speaker 5: the no shift rules, and about over a half season 698 00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:34,000 Speaker 5: of data said that is and this is, and pasp 699 00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,640 Speaker 5: Patino is a guy who is very much into the metrics. 700 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:41,040 Speaker 5: He understands the purpose that they serve, but doesn't eschue 701 00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:44,279 Speaker 5: traditional means by which player evaluation used to be predicated on. 702 00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,680 Speaker 5: He said that his babbit went up about ten points 703 00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,880 Speaker 5: over a half season with the shift fan and that 704 00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,239 Speaker 5: leads me to say that I think the increases that 705 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,560 Speaker 5: it are the way it may help Jazz and maybe 706 00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,520 Speaker 5: just everybody else, it's just going to be marginal if 707 00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,120 Speaker 5: it If he becomes a two sixty hitter, even in 708 00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,440 Speaker 5: his seventieth percentile, then that's fine. But I think the 709 00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,280 Speaker 5: skill sets, you know, the ability to hit for power 710 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,160 Speaker 5: at you know, he's playing second base, but he's gonna 711 00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,719 Speaker 5: be living to center field. Those assets are still gonna 712 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,400 Speaker 5: play up even if he's an average defender. He's also 713 00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,920 Speaker 5: very fast base runner. Heels really shown that he was 714 00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,960 Speaker 5: making improvements as a base runner after being leading the 715 00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:27,040 Speaker 5: league in cut stealings as a rookie in twenty twenty one. 716 00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:29,759 Speaker 5: I think if all of the other skill sets are 717 00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:33,880 Speaker 5: kind of playing at their weight or at least, you know, 718 00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,560 Speaker 5: or even above it, I don't he can hit two 719 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,479 Speaker 5: thirty if like he so long as he's doing other 720 00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,600 Speaker 5: things on a consistent basis to help the team win. 721 00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:44,920 Speaker 5: And I know that's the last thing you'd ever expect 722 00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:47,920 Speaker 5: to hear on this podcast because our emphasis is on 723 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:52,240 Speaker 5: objective analysis. I don't think it matters because he's gonna 724 00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,640 Speaker 5: he's gonna be a valuable player regardless of whether he 725 00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:58,799 Speaker 5: hits two thirty or he miraculously hits three ten. You 726 00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:01,640 Speaker 5: know he'll he'll provide you value in some way, shape 727 00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:03,600 Speaker 5: or form. But he's gonna be a guy that's gonna 728 00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,439 Speaker 5: have peaks and values. And again, like Eli noted, he's 729 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,239 Speaker 5: still young, he's gonna be prone to that. 730 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:13,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think with that is a perfect time to 731 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,680 Speaker 2: end it for here, just an episode going over a 732 00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,200 Speaker 2: j Puck di digital with a trade that that shook 733 00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:22,160 Speaker 2: Twitter when it came on just a few hours after 734 00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:27,480 Speaker 2: fan Fest. I'm discussing our projections, but for Eli, for Lewis, 735 00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,719 Speaker 2: for myself, this has been physiology and always, wherever you're 736 00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:41,840 Speaker 2: listening to this, go fish.