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Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. Here as the volume

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Speaker 1: Havy Tuesday. Everybody. Hope you guys are having a great week. Well,

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Speaker 1: we are starting our series previews today. We're starting with

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Speaker 1: our first one, the Detroit Pistons and the New York

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Speaker 1: Knicks we're gonna do the same kind of sequence for

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Speaker 1: every series preview. I'm gonna do the recap of the

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Speaker 1: season series off the front. Then we're gonna go over

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Speaker 1: the odds, the gambling odds on DraftKings. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: look at each team on both sides of the ball,

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Speaker 1: and then after that, I'm going to go over the

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Speaker 1: major swing factors that I expect to play a role

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Speaker 1: in the series, and then at the end, I will

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Speaker 1: give my pick, pretty similar to what we've done over

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Speaker 1: the last few years. You guys know the joke before

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Speaker 1: we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels.

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Speaker 1: You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at underscore JSNLT so you guys don't miss

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Speaker 1: show announcements. Don't forget about a podcast fet where we

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Speaker 1: get your podcast on O Hoops Tonight. It's also super

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Speaker 1: helpful if you leave a rating and review on that front.

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Speaker 1: We're doing some great work on social right now on Twitter, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: and Facebook on the Hoops Tonight feed, So make sure

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Speaker 1: you guys follow those social media channels, and the last

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Speaker 1: min at least keep dropping mailbag questions wherever underneath these

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Speaker 1: videos in the full episodes. Just put mail bag with

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Speaker 1: the colon. Put your questions that we can get to

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Speaker 1: our mailbags once a week here throughout the remainder of

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Speaker 1: the season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So series

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Speaker 1: recap for Pistons Knicks. They face four times this year.

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Speaker 1: The Knicks won the first game early in the year

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Speaker 1: in Detroit by thirty. Jalen Brunson really torched them in

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Speaker 1: that one. Then the Pistons beat the next three times

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Speaker 1: in a row. It's worth mentioning that they were missing

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Speaker 1: Cat for one of those games and missing Og for another,

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Speaker 1: but they did beat them at full strength in Madison

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Speaker 1: Square Garden once earlier this season. The odds right now

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Speaker 1: on DraftKings, the Knicks are a minus four to twenty

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Speaker 1: five favorite, regardless of who you're picking to win this series.

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Speaker 1: I think that's great value for Detroit. Detroit right now

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Speaker 1: on DraftKings is plus three point thirty to win the series.

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Speaker 1: That's just a great value you bet in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: because I do believe they can win this series. Let's

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Speaker 1: take a look at Detroit on offense. So again, obligatory upfront,

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Speaker 1: I have to say matchups don't mean as much as

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Speaker 1: they used to. In the old and the old NBA,

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Speaker 1: there was nowhere near as much switching of screens, and

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Speaker 1: so a lot of times like who was guarding who

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Speaker 1: played a massive role in who would win a series.

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Speaker 1: These days, there's so much more switching, especially one through four.

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Speaker 1: But also the game is so much more transition based.

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Speaker 1: A good like twenty percent of the game is in

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Speaker 1: transition now. As a result of that, you end up

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Speaker 1: with a lot of transition cross matches where guys are

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Speaker 1: just guarding the nearest player to them in that transition situation.

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Speaker 1: So matchups don't mean as much as they used to,

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Speaker 1: but it is at least worth going over them because

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Speaker 1: they do play a significant role in the regular season.

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Speaker 1: Thibodeau would deploy McHale Bridges on Kate Cunningham. We're going

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Speaker 1: to get into that concept a lot, because I think

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Speaker 1: I would go a different direction, used og Annobi primarily

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Speaker 1: on Tobias Harris, Jalen Brunson on Aasar Thompson, Josh Hart

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Speaker 1: on Tim Hardaway Junior, and Karl Anthony Towns on their centers. Now, again,

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Speaker 1: the main thing I would flip here is I would

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Speaker 1: put og on Kate the way I would organize off

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Speaker 1: of that, is I'd put Josh Hart on Tobias Harris,

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Speaker 1: and then I'd put McHale Bridges on the aggressive shooters

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Speaker 1: that Detroit uses Timartaway Junior, mainly Malik Beasley when he

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Speaker 1: comes into the game. We'll talk about that a little

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Speaker 1: bit more in a little bit, but the main thing

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Speaker 1: is is that OG is much better at dealing with

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Speaker 1: power pick and role players than McHale Bridges is. I've

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Speaker 1: seen a lot on film of Cad being able to

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Speaker 1: just bump mkale off with just that right shoulder as

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Speaker 1: he puts him in the sidecar and pick and roll,

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Speaker 1: and he's just more comfortable keeping his base against McHale.

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Speaker 1: And really, this is one of the most important concepts

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about as we get into all

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Speaker 1: these series previews, most of the things are going to

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Speaker 1: boil down to. Look, we'll have all sorts of factors,

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Speaker 1: all sorts of different things we discussed, but it's really

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Speaker 1: going to boil down to is your offense or your defense,

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Speaker 1: Excuse me, is your defense going to be able to

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Speaker 1: make their offense more uncomfortable then their defense can make

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Speaker 1: your offense, And so everything really comes down to comfort

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Speaker 1: there are all these like swing factors that you see

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Speaker 1: in playoff series, right, like, well, did your co star

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Speaker 1: play well? Role players play well? Did you knock down

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Speaker 1: three point shots? Did your grifters get foul calls that night? Like?

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Speaker 1: There's so many different things that can go in various

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Speaker 1: directions in playoff games. But with all that variability, the

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Speaker 1: way to get that to more frequently tilt towards you

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Speaker 1: is to be the more comfortable team. If you're the

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Speaker 1: more comfortable team, your stars more comfortable. If your stars

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Speaker 1: more comfortable, he's generating better advantages, generates better advantages. It's

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Speaker 1: easier for your role players to play good basketball. That

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Speaker 1: is really what it comes down to, is that comfort.

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Speaker 1: So Detroit's pathway to beating the Knicks in the series

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Speaker 1: stems from Kate Cunningham's ability to be the most comfortable

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Speaker 1: shot creator on the floor. The Knicks really do not

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Speaker 1: want to switch with Jalen Brunson and Karl Anthony Towns.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna run variations of drop with Carl Towns, and

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Speaker 1: they're gonna run variation basically just hedging and recovering with Brunson,

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Speaker 1: but they'll occasionally blitz with him. But Essentially, what that

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Speaker 1: means is there's gonna be two on the ball and

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Speaker 1: both of those actions. For Cat sometimes it blitz, sometimes

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Speaker 1: at the level deeper drop with Brunson, sometimes a hedge,

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Speaker 1: sometimes a trap, but in each case both of them

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Speaker 1: are devoting their resources towards the ball. This is exactly

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Speaker 1: why I would go with Og Andnobi if I was

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Speaker 1: the Nicks instead of McHale Bridges. In all of those schemes,

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Speaker 1: it requires you to chase over the top. You're running

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Speaker 1: a deep drop, you want Og chasing over the top,

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Speaker 1: or McHale Bridges chasing over the top. You're at the

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Speaker 1: level you want them chasing over the top. They're blitzing,

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Speaker 1: you want them chasing over the top. And if you're

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Speaker 1: targeting Brunson, you want them chasing over the top. You

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Speaker 1: want that defender to stay attached as much as possible

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Speaker 1: throughout this, and so if you're trying to stay attached

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Speaker 1: to Caid and you're trying to stay attached to them

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Speaker 1: with a skinny player, that Caid can bump off of

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Speaker 1: him whenever he wants. It's just harder to make him uncomfortable.

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Speaker 1: Og consistently has been one of the better defenders against

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Speaker 1: power pick and roll players that I've seen, and this

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Speaker 1: could be a huge swing in this series. Like when

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Speaker 1: you combine his comfort, Caid's comfort against Mkale and their

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Speaker 1: ability to consider simply find actions against Brunson and Kat

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Speaker 1: to get them in rotation. Kid's been torching them. Kid's

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Speaker 1: averaging thirty one points, five rebounds, and eight assists with

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Speaker 1: only two and a half turnovers on fifty six percent

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Speaker 1: from the field, fifty two percent from three, and eighty

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Speaker 1: percent from the line in this matchup against this team,

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Speaker 1: it plays MVP basketball against the Knicks, as another way

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Speaker 1: to put it, so you have to find a way

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Speaker 1: to flip that dynamic, and to me, putting a power

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Speaker 1: defender against the power pick and role player is the

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Speaker 1: better way to make him uncomfortable. I do prefer McHale

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Speaker 1: bridges against speed. He's harder to screen, he's a little

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Speaker 1: more slender, a little bit more quick footed, better at

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Speaker 1: navigating those screens, and he's better at staying attached against

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Speaker 1: the speedy guards and different types of shot creators that

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Speaker 1: you'll find in this league. But against power, I like

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Speaker 1: OG's ability to win the ground battle. I think there's

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Speaker 1: a chance that tips starts this series with McHale and

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Speaker 1: Caid has a really big game early in the series

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Speaker 1: in game one or Game two to potential steal a

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Speaker 1: game before Tibbs learns his lesson. We'll keep an eye

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Speaker 1: on that over the course of this series. I also

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Speaker 1: like deploying McHale Bridges on the shooters because they're a

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Speaker 1: huge part of Detroit's offense. Malik Beasley in particular, will

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Speaker 1: come into the game looking to be super aggressive, not

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Speaker 1: just as a spot up shooter, but as a score.

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Speaker 1: He'll pump fake, he'll relocate, he'll put the ball on

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Speaker 1: the floor, he'll shoot floaters, shoot mid range jump shots.

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Speaker 1: He is an aggressive score. McHale Bridges is the type

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Speaker 1: of defender that could shut down a guy like Malik Beasley.

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Speaker 1: So I just kind of like deploying them in those

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Speaker 1: sorts of ways. Also, I think OG is kind of

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Speaker 1: wasted on a guy like Tobias Harris. Like Tobias Harris

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Speaker 1: has had his moments. The series had stretches this year

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Speaker 1: after Jade and Ivy went down, or he's been a

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Speaker 1: guy that they've used as a secondary scorer, but primarily

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Speaker 1: at this point in the season, especially since Dennis Schroeder's

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Speaker 1: come around. He's more of an off ball scorer. He's

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Speaker 1: not looking to create offense all that often. As a

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Speaker 1: matter of fact, the last time Tobias Harris scored more

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Speaker 1: than five points in a single game out of the

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Speaker 1: post was February twenty fourth. February twenty first, excuse me,

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Speaker 1: the last time he scored more than five points in

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Speaker 1: ISO situations was all the way back on March eighth.

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Speaker 1: He'll get his touches and he might hit a little

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Speaker 1: right shoulder fade away. He might drive and shoot a

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Speaker 1: little floater off the glass or something like that. You

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Speaker 1: can't overreact to that because he's just not doing it

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Speaker 1: at enough volume to justify deploying og An Andobe as

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Speaker 1: the primary defender on him. I think that's a misallocation

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Speaker 1: of resources either way. Even with og on Cad, I

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Speaker 1: do think with the screening actions with Brunson and Cat,

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Speaker 1: Caid will be able to generate quality shots first team

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Speaker 1: in the series. I just think you can limit that

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Speaker 1: a little bit by changing the matchups a little bit.

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Speaker 1: But that ability of Kid to attack Brunson and Cat

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Speaker 1: is why I don't think this will be a short

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Speaker 1: series like I would be surprised if the Pistons got

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Speaker 1: swept in this series. Right, this is what it's gonna

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Speaker 1: come down to, the comfort of Caid Cunningham. The Knicks

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Speaker 1: are not going to just shut down Detroit's offense. They

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Speaker 1: will have their moments and I do believe they'll win

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Speaker 1: some games as a result. Moving to the Knicks on

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Speaker 1: the offensive end of the four, Interestingly enough, with the matchups,

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Speaker 1: Bigger Staff has deployed Kay Cunningham as the primary defender

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Speaker 1: on Jalen Brunson in this matchup. Kate apparently is asked

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Speaker 1: for high leverage defensive assignments over the course of the season,

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Speaker 1: which speaks to his competitiveness. Kate has good size. I'll

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Speaker 1: be curious to see if they do this again to

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Speaker 1: start the series, especially with the massive offensive load that's

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Speaker 1: going to be on Kaid, But I wouldn't be shocked if,

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Speaker 1: similar to the regular season, if we saw Kid start

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Speaker 1: the series on Brunson. The way they set up the

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Speaker 1: rest of the matchups, they put a Ssar Thompson on

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Speaker 1: McHale Bridges, they put Tim Hardaway Junior on Josh Hart,

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Speaker 1: Debis Harris on og Anodobi and Jalen Duran on Karl

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Speaker 1: Anthony Towns. There's a couple of different configurations they could

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Speaker 1: go with. They could put a Sar Thompson on Josh

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Speaker 1: Hart and put Tim Hardaway Junior on mchal Bridges because

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Speaker 1: McHale's coming off of a lot of screening actions. Tim

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Speaker 1: Hardaway Junior does have some experience as a lock and

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Speaker 1: trail defender, so that's a potential way to use him.

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Speaker 1: There also, Asar Thompson roaming off of Josh Hart, where

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Speaker 1: he can kind of be a wrecking ball in the lane,

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Speaker 1: I think is a valuable way to potential to use him.

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Speaker 1: You could also go with the more traditional matchup, which

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Speaker 1: is take your best perimeter defender a SAR and just

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Speaker 1: put him on Jayleen Brunson, which I'm certain we'll see

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Speaker 1: that at various points in the series. But you put

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Speaker 1: a SAR on Brunson, then you put Kay Cunningham on

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Speaker 1: Josh Hart, so that Caid can kind of roam around

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Speaker 1: and save his legs a little bit, focus more on

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Speaker 1: defensive rebounding and just kind of contending with Josh's physicality

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Speaker 1: and the paint. Again, I think we're gonna see plenty

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Speaker 1: of all of those looks. Throughout the series, but I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if they started with Kid cunning him

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Speaker 1: on Brunson. I think Detroit's biggest matchup problem against the

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Speaker 1: Knicks is Karl Anthony Towns. Detroit's biggs, especially Jalen Duran,

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Speaker 1: but both of them really struggle defending out on the

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Speaker 1: perimeter at times. Karl Anthony Towns is feasted in this matchup,

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Speaker 1: specifically on those bigs and their natural tendency to sink

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Speaker 1: into the paint, especially in transition situation. A lot of

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Speaker 1: like easy looks as a trailing big in transition for

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Speaker 1: Kat in this matchup. He's averaged twenty four points per

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Speaker 1: game against the Pistons this year, shooting forty four percent

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Speaker 1: from three. He's been very comfortable. I'm sure over the

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Speaker 1: course of the series. J bicker Staff will be watching

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Speaker 1: Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duran in kind of like seeing

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Speaker 1: which one of those guys does a better job against Kat,

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Speaker 1: and then leaning more into that guy. My guess is

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Speaker 1: it'll end up being Isaiah Stewart. Isaiah Stewart is also

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Speaker 1: just a little bit more polished offensively in more various

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Speaker 1: ways than just directly under the basket, but I do

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Speaker 1: think Kat's going to be comfortable behind the arc in

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Speaker 1: this series relative to some other matchups that the Knicks

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Speaker 1: could have run into now. Brunson torched the Pistons in

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Speaker 1: the first game early in the season, but they've reasonably

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Speaker 1: held him in check in the three Pistons wins. Kate

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Speaker 1: has done a nice job of funneling him towards the sideline,

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Speaker 1: staying attached so he can't just shoot that easy little

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Speaker 1: pull up jump shot in the mid range. McHale's been

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Speaker 1: great in this matchup all season long. He's shooting fifty

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Speaker 1: two percent from three and averaging twenty points per game.

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Speaker 1: I think the main key for the Knicks when they're

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Speaker 1: on offense is to avoid falling into the trap of

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Speaker 1: just playing helio centric Brunson ball. The whole purpose of

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Speaker 1: trading for McHale, Bridges and Og Andnobi is their OFFENSEI versatility.

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Speaker 1: You tried the heliocentric thing in the last two years.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't work right. It puts too much on Brunson.

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Speaker 1: Brunson's eventually gonna break down, right, Like, you need to

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Speaker 1: find a way to diversify a little bit. O g

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Speaker 1: has been flashing. Finally, this Kawhi esque upside that we

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Speaker 1: all thought he had back when he was in Toronto.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna have favorable matchups here. McHale Bridges has been

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Speaker 1: comfortable in this matchup. If you lean into Brunson ball,

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Speaker 1: it's very possible just because of the way the matchups

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Speaker 1: hang out, that kid ends up just being more comfortable

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Speaker 1: and doing a better job on the other end, and

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Speaker 1: you could lose the series. But Kad does not have

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Speaker 1: the supporting shot creation talent that the Knicks had. It's

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Speaker 1: a lot of Malik Beasley, It's a lot of Dennis Schroeder,

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Speaker 1: It's a lot of Tobias Harris. You have more talent

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Speaker 1: in that regard the players. Their path is good scoring balance,

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Speaker 1: winning the war of offensive attrition as Caid slowly fatigues

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Speaker 1: from having to do everything in his first ever playoff series. Ironically,

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Speaker 1: if you flip it over, this is why teams like

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Speaker 1: the Pacers have given so many issues to the Pistons

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Speaker 1: this year. They spread them out, they attack them with

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Speaker 1: aggregate offensive talent. That is where your advantage is in

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Speaker 1: this series, and that's the way that the Knicks need

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Speaker 1: to play. Potential major swing factors Aids jump shooting. Things

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Speaker 1: get tougher in the playoffs. Defenses are more disciplined, the

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Speaker 1: easier opportunities are fewer and further between, especially if you

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Speaker 1: get Og in there Og and he defends him well,

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Speaker 1: it could be a fewer of those five to seven

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Speaker 1: foot jump shots, more fifteen to seventeen foot jump shots,

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Speaker 1: a little bit further from the basket, a little bit tougher,

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Speaker 1: more disruption in his base. Tough shot making is going

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Speaker 1: to be a big part of what Aid's going to

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Speaker 1: have to do in this series. Two Karl Anthony town

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Speaker 1: pick and pop jump shot in the Brunson two man game,

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Speaker 1: you can't necessarily switch and just put stew or Jalen

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Speaker 1: Duran on Brunson in space. It's one of those things

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Speaker 1: where there's going to be situations where Karl Anthony Towns

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Speaker 1: when he pops, is going to have a close out

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Speaker 1: either coming to him from the action or coming to

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Speaker 1: him from the weak side. And Cat's ability to score

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Speaker 1: and attack out of those pick and pops is gonna

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Speaker 1: be one of the biggest advantages that the Knicks have

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Speaker 1: in the series. And how effective he is as a

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Speaker 1: scorer there could swing things three, Dennis Schroeder's backup playmaking.

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Speaker 1: The Pistons ended up going after Schroeder as an upgrade

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Speaker 1: to Marcus Sasser at the backup guard spot after what

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Speaker 1: happened with Jade and Ivy and his injury. He's going

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Speaker 1: to lead to Kay Cunningham off the Floorida units. He's

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Speaker 1: also going to play some second side with Katie, usually

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Speaker 1: like middle fourth quarter. You'll see it a little bit.

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Speaker 1: You'll see these phases of the game where Cad and

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Speaker 1: Dennis are out there together and Dennis will be the

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Speaker 1: guy that's running the action on the weak side against

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Speaker 1: the second best perimeter defender. Dennis is a competitive dude.

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Speaker 1: I liked rooting for him when he was with the Lakers,

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Speaker 1: but he does have somewhat of a wide range of play,

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Speaker 1: Like you can catch Dennis on a night where he

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Speaker 1: can't do anything offensively, and you can catch Dennis on

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Speaker 1: a night where he looks like an All star guard literally.

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Speaker 1: So it's one of those things with Dennis where the

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Speaker 1: level that he's able to get to in this series

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Speaker 1: once again, could be a giant swing factor in this series.

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Speaker 1: The shooting of Tim Hardaway Junior and Malik Beasley both

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Speaker 1: guys historically are great at taking and making contested catch

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Speaker 1: and shoot jump shots, the kinds of jump shots that

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Speaker 1: don't matter what the defense is doing. Malik Beasley this

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Speaker 1: year on a contested ketch and shoot jump shot is

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Speaker 1: getting one point twenty nine points per shot. Tim Hardaway

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Speaker 1: has been lower this year, zero point nine to five,

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Speaker 1: but he's capable and we've seen him do it in

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Speaker 1: the past. If those dudes just get crazy hot and

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Speaker 1: make a bunch of like kind of contested catch and

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Speaker 1: shoot jump shots off of spray outs from kid, that

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Speaker 1: can be a massive swing factor in Detroit's favor in

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Speaker 1: this series. The Brunson Kide matchup. I know it's kind

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Speaker 1: of reductive, but sometimes playoff series just come down to

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Speaker 1: who's star plays better. If Kay Cunningham out plays Jalen Brunson,

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Speaker 1: that could swing the series entirely towards Detroit. And then

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Speaker 1: the last one, Anenobi's scoring og had this incredible run

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Speaker 1: of Kawhi esque scoring. Then he runs into a really

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Speaker 1: important game late in the season against the Celtics and

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Speaker 1: he can't score. If he goes for twenty five points

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Speaker 1: per game on a lead efficiency, I think the Pistons

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Speaker 1: just won't have the firepower to keep up in this series.

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Speaker 1: Which version of og and and Obi are we going

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Speaker 1: to get in this matchup? It's a major swing factor

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Speaker 1: my pick. I'm taking the Knicks in six games. I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to be a longer series for all

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Speaker 1: of the reasons I mentioned earlier about Kaid being able

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Speaker 1: to get comfortable. But I'm picking the Knicks for a

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Speaker 1: handful of reasons. One, I think the Knicks have more

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Speaker 1: adjustments available to them than they showed in the regular season.

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Speaker 1: We talked about the idea of og An Andobi guarding

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Speaker 1: Kate Cunningham. I think they have even other configurations that

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Speaker 1: they can go with. The Knicks also have more offensive variety,

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Speaker 1: which means like, oh, this action isn't working, we can

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Speaker 1: look to go to this guy, we can look to

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Speaker 1: go to that guy. They have four guys in their

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Speaker 1: starting lineup that can credibly generate offense on their own

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Speaker 1: through various types of actions. That is a luxury that

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Speaker 1: the Pistons don't have a lot of times. As you

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Speaker 1: go match up to matchup, it's like, okay, in this series,

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Speaker 1: Brunson has the advantage. He's going to go nuts in

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Speaker 1: this series, Kat has the advantage. We're going to go

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Speaker 1: through him a ton in this series. It's like they

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Speaker 1: just do not have a body that can guard og Anoby.

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Speaker 1: We're going to play a lot through og Anoby. That's

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Speaker 1: a flexibility series to series that the Knicks have that

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Speaker 1: the Pistons don't have. And in this series, we'll see

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Speaker 1: it could end up being a series where og leads

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Speaker 1: the team in scoring. That's the type of luxury that

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Speaker 1: it is that you have when you have the type

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Speaker 1: of offensive variety that the Knicks have. And then lastly,

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Speaker 1: the Knicks are far and away the more experienced team

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Speaker 1: in addition to being more talented on paper, this is

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Speaker 1: a series that historically in the NBA, teams like the

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00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 1: Pistons haven't won this type of series. There's an adjustment

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Speaker 1: to playoff basketball. There's an unfamiliarity with what this type

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Speaker 1: of basketball looks like. The Knicks have been in multi

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00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 1: series playoff runs two years in a row now. Karl

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Speaker 1: Anthony talents just got out of a Conference finals run

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Speaker 1: with the Timberwolves. They are deeply familiar with the setting

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Speaker 1: and what it takes. They also have home court. To me,

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Speaker 1: it's just even though we have all of this sample

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Speaker 1: of data from the Pistons winning three games in a row.

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Speaker 1: That to me is more just an example that the

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Speaker 1: Pistons will have moments in this series where they look

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Speaker 1: good and competitive and most likely win a couple of games.

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Speaker 1: The Knicks are more talented, they have home court, they're

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Speaker 1: way more experienced, and they're way more versatile. That to me,

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Speaker 1: is going to be the driving force behind the Knicks

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Speaker 1: getting this done. All Right, guys, that's all I have

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Speaker 1: for this particular video. As always, I sincerely appreciate you

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Speaker 1: guys supporting me and supporting the show. I'll see you

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Speaker 1: a little bit later today for our preview of Bucks Pacers.

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Speaker 1: What's Up? Guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening

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Speaker 1: to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would actually be really

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Speaker 1: helpful for us if you guys would take a second

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Speaker 1: and leave a rating and a review. As always, I

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Speaker 1: appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take

426
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Speaker 1: a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it. The

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Speaker 1: volume