1 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:07,760 Speaker 1: On this episode of nuch World, what should our global 2 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: strategy look like in an age of renewed great power competition, 3 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: and what must America offer to a newly empowered developing 4 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: world when we're no longer the only major player. In 5 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: his new book, The American Imperative, Dan Rundey makes the 6 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: case for building a new global consensus through vigorous internationalism 7 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: and judicious use of soft power. He maps out many 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 1: of the steps that we need to take, primarily in 9 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,599 Speaker 1: the non military sphere, to ensure an alliance of stable 10 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: and secure, like minded, self reliant partner nations in order 11 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: to prevent rising authoritary and power such as China from 12 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: running the world. I'm really pleased to welcome my guests, 13 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 1: Daniel Rundey. He is the Senior vice president, director of 14 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 1: the Project on Prosperity and Development and the William A. 15 00:00:56,280 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: Schreier Chair in Global Analysis at the Center for Strategic 16 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:13,040 Speaker 1: and International Studies. Dan, welcome and thank you for joining 17 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 1: me on news World. Thanks for having me, mister speaker. 18 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,319 Speaker 1: I'm one of your biggest fans and admirers. I'm also 19 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 1: a listener on your podcast, and I love your podcast, 20 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,199 Speaker 1: so I really appreciate the opportunity beyond your show today. Listen, 21 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 1: I'm glad you've joined us because I think you're exactly 22 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 1: the kind of really practical intellectual that the folks who 23 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 1: listen to these podcasts really get a lot from. And 24 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 1: I know your own background is so remarkable, but I 25 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 1: think it's useful for people to get to know you 26 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 1: personally as well know about your book. So talk a 27 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,759 Speaker 1: little bit about how you ended up where you are 28 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:46,479 Speaker 1: now and how you started in this business of thinking 29 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: about the world. I was an intern for George HW. 30 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 1: Bush and worked on his re election campaign as a 31 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: volunteer in nineteen ninety two. I worked in the Bush 32 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: forty one White House as an intern. I loved it, 33 00:01:57,960 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: and I knew I was a Republican, and I knew 34 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: I was a Conservative from that moment. And then I 35 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: was thrilled when we took the House in nineteen ninety 36 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 1: four under your leadership. And I loved serving in the 37 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: Bush forty three administration at what's called USAID, it's the 38 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: foreign aid arm of the US government. And then I 39 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: was there for five years and I managed an initiative 40 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 1: set up by Secretary Compowell around public private partnerships working 41 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: with the private sector around problems and challenges in the 42 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: developing world. I then was at the World Bank Group 43 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: for about four years that started working on the World 44 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: Bank on a variety of issues there. And I've been 45 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: at CSIS, a well known Washington think tank, for the 46 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: last twelve years. And I've served in a couple of 47 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 1: advisory commissions during the Trump administration, one for usaid On 48 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: giving them advice from outside folks, and then I shared 49 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 1: another committee on Africa for the usx In Bank. So 50 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 1: I've had a lot of experiences. I lived overseas for 51 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 1: a long time. I speak Spanish, I lived in Ourgentina. 52 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 1: I've also lived in Spain, so I had a chance 53 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:05,679 Speaker 1: to see a lot of the world, but also have 54 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 1: had a conservative internationalist view of the world. Really from 55 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: a young age. Yeah, I mean, you worked in commercial 56 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: banking at City Bank in Argentina, didn't you. That's right. 57 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 1: It was really an eye opening experience. I worked on 58 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:19,399 Speaker 1: Wall Street out of college at what's now Deutsche Bank. 59 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:22,360 Speaker 1: It was then called Alex Brown and Sons. And then 60 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: when I met my wife at Harvard at the Kennedy School, 61 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: I wanted to figure out if she was missus right 62 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: or not. And so I followed her at Argentina and 63 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 1: I took a job at Citi Bank working in commercial 64 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 1: banking and Argentina. It was a pretty interesting experience and 65 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 1: I learned a lot. There's a pretty serious effort according 66 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: if you go all the way to Argentina to make 67 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 1: sure that everything works out. And I've met your wife 68 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: and she's truly lovely. Thanks a lot, thanks, mister speaker. Yeah, 69 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: that was the best decision I ever made, and the 70 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: best thing that never happened to me was meeting her. 71 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 1: So I got my love life figured out at Harvard, 72 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: but I also got my professional life figured out. At Harvard. 73 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: I met Andrew Natzios, who had run the Republican Party 74 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 1: in Massachusetts in the eighties and had become head of 75 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: USAID in bush forty three, and I'd done some research 76 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 1: work for him, and so he had me join his 77 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: team in two thousand and two at USAID, and so 78 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: I kind of got an honorary PhD in the international 79 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: development or soft power business. So I've been in this 80 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 1: work for probably about twenty years in different capacities, and 81 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: I wanted to write this book because I've seen in 82 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:29,839 Speaker 1: the last twenty years, a big change, and the big 83 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 1: changes that the Chinese Communist Party in mainland China have 84 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: the ability to compete with us in a number of 85 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 1: different spheres. And I know you've talked about China being 86 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,599 Speaker 1: a major competitor, and what I would argue is that 87 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 1: a lot of our competition there's going to be some 88 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 1: of its military. So I'm four piece through strength. I'm 89 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 1: four strong military and strong intelligence capacities, but we need 90 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 1: all of our facets of American power. We can beat 91 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 1: China and Russia, and I'd rather be US than them, 92 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: but we need to have a strategy to confront mainland 93 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,840 Speaker 1: China over the next several decades and a number of 94 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 1: different non military spheres. So from your perspective, this is 95 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 1: a very different world than the Cold War. It's a 96 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 1: very different world than the Cold War. You know. I 97 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 1: was having a conversation with Hugh Hewitt today on his 98 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,799 Speaker 1: radio show and he said, Dan, I read your book, 99 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: and I disagree with you because you don't agree that 100 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,599 Speaker 1: we're in a second Cold War. I think my thinkings 101 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: evolved were in something akin to a second Cold War. 102 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: But it's different than the previous one in the sense 103 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: that the Soviet Union didn't have the economic strength that 104 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 1: Mainland China's got. Mainland China is now the largest trading 105 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: partner for something like one hundred and twenty countries, or 106 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,799 Speaker 1: twenty five years ago, we were the largest trading partner 107 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 1: for one hundred and twenty countries. Now the largest trading 108 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,720 Speaker 1: partner is Mainland China. They have the ability today to 109 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 1: put forward vaccines and things like COVID. They can put 110 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: forward crappy vaccines, but they can move quickly if we 111 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: leave voids. They have the ability to fill voids in 112 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: ways that the Soviet Union didn't necessarily have. So it's 113 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 1: a much more treacherous and difficult competitor. But if we 114 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:08,720 Speaker 1: have a strategy, if we work with our partners, if 115 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 1: we leverage the private sector, and we stay true to 116 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:14,719 Speaker 1: our values, we can beat them. So if they're that competitive, 117 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 1: why are you convinced we can beat them? Well, I 118 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: think we've got to first accept that this is a 119 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,919 Speaker 1: very serious challenge. And I think one of the legacies 120 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: of the Trump administration was that he helped formulate a 121 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 1: new consensus in Washington that China was a serious problem. 122 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 1: And so I think there's now a consensus across the 123 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 1: Republican and Democratic parties that we have a problem in China, 124 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 1: and I'm hopeful that the new Gallagher Committee, the new 125 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 1: Special Committee on China that you're aware of, mister Speaker 126 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 1: in the House, will help the American people begin to 127 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: get educated on what to do about this. I think 128 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,720 Speaker 1: we have a consensus that there is a problem. I 129 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: don't think we have a consensus yet on what to 130 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: do about it, and so I saw my look as 131 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 1: a contribution and as to what we can do about it. 132 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: But I think ultimately, if I think about their vaccines, 133 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: their vaccines were not very good. I think many people 134 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: know this, but it took us a long time for 135 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 1: us to get those Western vaccines top shelf vaccines to 136 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: developing countries. The Chinese and the Russians had a public 137 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: relations field day for about nine months while we were 138 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: slow to get off the dime on this. They have 139 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 1: the ability to provide infrastructure. Now, if China wants to 140 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: build some farm to market road in the middle of 141 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: nowhere Tanzania, that's fine. But if they build a dual 142 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: use airport, or if they build a port that can 143 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 1: fit their submarines, or you know, they start controlling the 144 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: digital infrastructure, the digital rails of the future controlled by 145 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: Huawei and ZT. We don't want that. We don't necessarily 146 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: have to compete with them dollar for dollar, but we 147 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: need to marshal all of our partners and friends to 148 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: enable an alternative in the infrastructure space, or the vaccine space, 149 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 1: or the digital rails of the future space. If I 150 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:03,160 Speaker 1: can divide this into two parts and correct me if 151 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: you don't agree with this, as soon as we both 152 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: have a Chinese communist problem, and that they are a 153 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 1: country big enough and populous enough and developed enough to 154 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 1: be a serious pure competitor, but we also have the 155 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: emergence now of a sort of alliance of dictatorships and 156 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 1: authoritarian regimes which Putin and others are pushing, so that 157 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: there's a collective anti American movement that's a little more 158 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: complicated than the Cold War was. I agree with that actually. 159 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:33,079 Speaker 1: So I think there are two problems. I think one 160 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 1: is the China as a major economic competitor, and then 161 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: I think there's sort of this alliance of bad guys. 162 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: As you've described. China's largely a full on partner in 163 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 1: but likes to pretend they're a little bit apart from 164 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 1: at times when it's convenient for them. So I think 165 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,079 Speaker 1: we have to confront both of these things. Whether there's 166 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 1: a resurgence dictatorship in Nicaragua, we had to push back 167 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: against that. What we ought to be aiming for as 168 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 1: a world that are largely market democracies, and over time, 169 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 1: if you look from forty years ago today, it's a 170 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: richer place and it's a largely freer place. There's been 171 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:10,680 Speaker 1: some backsliding on democracy. But our fingers should be on 172 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 1: the scale of democracy. And if we don't stand up 173 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: for fighting corruption in the developing world, if we don't 174 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 1: stand out for human rights, say for the wagers in China, 175 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: like no one else is going to do it. It 176 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 1: requires American leadership. From your perspective, if you were able 177 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: to talk with every single American one on one, what 178 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: would you tell them they should be asking of the 179 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 1: Congress and the executive branch. So I think the first 180 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: thing is to say that we need to agree on 181 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: taking a series of steps. So I think the first 182 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 1: question I'd asked them is are you prepared to seed 183 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 1: the leadership in the world to mainland China? And so 184 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,680 Speaker 1: far in Washington, mister speaker, I haven't found a single 185 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 1: person some of my trumpiest trumpy friends, I've never met 186 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: anybody who said, to me, yes, that sounds great. I'm 187 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 1: going to hand over the reigns of global leadership from 188 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:19,959 Speaker 1: the United States to mainland China. And I think if 189 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 1: you start with that premise, then I think it's an 190 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:25,560 Speaker 1: open conversation to say, Okay, well, then there's some steps 191 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 1: we need to take. One is that we need a strategy. 192 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 1: I believe that it's can probably require the Republican Party 193 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: to deliver this strategy. I believe it's going to require 194 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: Republican president and a Republican Congress to do this. Second, 195 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 1: I think we've got eighteen or twenty government agencies that 196 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 1: do various things that are kind of in the soft 197 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 1: power realm. That's probably let's agree, there's probably too many. 198 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 1: There's a series of funny bureaucratic rules and regulations that 199 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: ought to be looked at that have accumulated over several 200 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: decades that are worth a significant fix. Then I think 201 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 1: there's a series of adjustments having to do with where 202 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,679 Speaker 1: we put our people time and money. So I think 203 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:09,200 Speaker 1: we probably need to put a little bit more resourcing 204 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 1: into making sure that Huawei and Zte, the two Chinese 205 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 1: Communist Party linked companies in China that are exporting let's 206 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 1: call digital infrastructure and beginning to kind of build out 207 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:21,839 Speaker 1: the digital rails of the future in the developing world, 208 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 1: don't control them to the extent that when we show 209 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: up for things like multilateral institutions, China is putting forward 210 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 1: really competent leaders for multilateral organizations. In the Reagan administration, 211 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 1: you'll remember personnel's policy, So if they put forward a 212 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:42,319 Speaker 1: really good candidate and that candidate wins, those folks then 213 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: can control who runs their technology, who they hire. A 214 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: lot of the time, when these mainline Chinese candidates win, 215 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:50,959 Speaker 1: the first thing to do is they kick Taiwan out 216 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: of these organizations. Or let's say, I want to hire 217 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 1: this Chinese computer company to do the cloud computing. We 218 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: want to make sure that the commanding highs of the 219 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: multilateral system. I know that's a lot of words, but 220 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 1: there's a lot of these multi latter organizations that are 221 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,839 Speaker 1: really important. And I know some people in the US say, 222 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 1: like all those organizations, some of them are useless or 223 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:14,599 Speaker 1: they're gonna infringe on our sovereignty. I understand those concerns, 224 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: but what I would say is that these institutions are 225 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 1: really important. They have control a lot of money, they 226 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 1: set global standards on different things, and they keep a 227 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 1: lot of sensitive information in secrets. And so we don't 228 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 1: want mainland Chinese CEOs running those key organizations. If they 229 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 1: want to run the International Organization of Titaly, winks and 230 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 1: backgam and, that's fine, but I don't want them run 231 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:38,440 Speaker 1: in the IMF or being Secretary General of the UN, 232 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: or run in the World Bank, which are really important institutions. 233 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 1: Sometimes your listeners will know what they are, they've heard 234 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:46,719 Speaker 1: of them, but some of these are really important institutions. 235 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 1: So we've got to be able to compete and win 236 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,199 Speaker 1: in these elections. And then I think we need to 237 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: be a little bit more clever about who we recruit 238 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: to come and study here in the United States. I 239 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 1: think we used to be much more strategic about bringing 240 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: future leaders from Anesia or Africa. A lot of those 241 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 1: people are now going to mainland China. But we want 242 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 1: for these people, when they become central bank presidents or 243 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: CEOs in their countries, to have Boston on the speed dial, 244 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: not Beijing. On the speed dial. You're really talking about 245 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 1: a dramatically more organized and more energetic American effort though 246 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: we currently have. I am talking about that, and I 247 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:28,079 Speaker 1: think that the frame is this competition with China, and 248 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 1: then it's also this competition with sort of this access 249 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: of bad guys that you talked about. So I think 250 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 1: we need to push back against the access of bad 251 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: guys and stand up for our values, stand up for 252 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 1: democracy and human rights and fighting corruption, things that the 253 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: United States have done for decades. And second, we had 254 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 1: to be careful about what voids we leave in the world, 255 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 1: because China is capable today of filling those voids. And 256 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: so the most important thing is for us to identify 257 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 1: where we're competing with China and to enable an alternative. 258 00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 1: We don't have to do it all ourselves. We can 259 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: work with Japan, we can work with the Brits or 260 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: the various organizations that we lead, things like the Asian 261 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: Development Bank or the World Bank. These are institutions that 262 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,679 Speaker 1: we built, and these are institutions that we own, and 263 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: if we ride herd on them, they can be a 264 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:17,080 Speaker 1: force multiplier for American leadership. I'm very struck. I've been 265 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: working recently on the Chinese penetration of our universities, and 266 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 1: it's breathtaking. I mean, they've had a very methodical, very 267 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 1: large project. I know you've talked and thought a lot 268 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 1: about the Confucius Institutes and the various techniques. Could you 269 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: talk a little bit about the methodical Chinese effort to 270 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 1: infiltrate our education, particularly higher education. They've written a lot 271 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: of checks to a lot of our institutions. They've also 272 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: sent a lot of people to study here. I think 273 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: in general having Chinese students study here is a good thing, 274 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 1: But I'm conflicted. There have been a large number of 275 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: bad apples who have been doing a number of bad things. 276 00:14:56,920 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: Some have been stealing our intellectual property, and some of 277 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: them have been bullying or trying to police other Chinese 278 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 1: students who get a taste of freedom and say what 279 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: they really think for the first time. These Confucius Institutes 280 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: have been sort of a form of kind of enforced 281 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: propaganda in terms of pushing a specific kind of pro 282 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 1: Chinese communist party line in universities. So I think it 283 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 1: has been well thought through. I would argue that they 284 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 1: took a little bit of a page from our playbook 285 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: in the nineteen sixties. We went out of our way 286 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 1: to recruit people from the developing world in the sixties 287 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 1: and seventies, and that paid a lot of dividends for US. 288 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: We had two cohorts, two generations of public policy leaders, 289 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: central bank presidents, prime ministers, CEOs of corporations, health ministers, 290 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 1: agg ministers who had all study the United States had 291 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: a positive view of America. And so China has been 292 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 1: doing the same thing. Yes, they've been sending people here, 293 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: they've been trying to influence our system, but they've also 294 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 1: gone out of their way to the developing world and 295 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 1: say we will take your students. They're the large just 296 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 1: recipient of foreign students studying anywhere in the world is 297 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 1: in China, not the United States, and so I worry 298 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: about that. So I think we need to kind of 299 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: police some of the very bad behavior that China is doing. 300 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: My views, I would be very comfortable closing the Confucius Institutes, 301 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 1: but I do think we should have some ability to 302 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: have some Chinese students study in the United States. I'd 303 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: rather have them study comparative religion than theoretical physics, to 304 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 1: be honest with you, or English literature because I think 305 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: some of the more sensitive subjects, we've had a number 306 00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 1: of bad incidents, and so I think we have to 307 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 1: think about how we're going to manage that. At the 308 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: same time, mister speaker, I do believe that someday down 309 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 1: the road, twenty years from now, thirty years from now, 310 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: forty years from now, we should be working towards China 311 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 1: as a multiparty democracy. I know that sounds crazy in 312 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, and a lot of people who are 313 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: China should say, Dan, that's crazy, that's not ever going 314 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 1: to be possible. I don't believe that because Taiwan across 315 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 1: those Taiwan Strait is a multiparty democracy, and so Indonesia 316 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: is a multiparty democracy, Japans a multiparty democracy. South Korea 317 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,719 Speaker 1: is a multiparty democracy. That says to me that multiparty 318 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 1: democracy in China, mainland China, where they're at peace with 319 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: their neighbors, something that's akin to a Brazil, right, a 320 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 1: big Brazil. That's a multiparty democracy that's not causing trouble. 321 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: We have some ways of trying to help shape that, 322 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 1: and one way is to try and bring as many 323 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: of the Chinese elites as possible to the US to 324 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,639 Speaker 1: get exposed to the American way of life into the West. 325 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:32,479 Speaker 1: At the same time, like I said, there's there've been 326 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 1: abuses by them in terms of spying or mistreating their 327 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,199 Speaker 1: people that is unacceptable and we've got to stop that. 328 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: I spend a fair amount of time in the Trump 329 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:44,639 Speaker 1: administration trying to get across how dangerous whahwei was and 330 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 1: the whole threat of a five G Chinese dominated system 331 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 1: gathering up information worldwide and controlling communication. I found that 332 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:57,160 Speaker 1: the combination of the special interests of places like AT 333 00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: and T and just the bureaucracy's attitude towards anybody getting 334 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: him to do anything different, it was almost impossible to 335 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 1: get people to realize how big a threat this is. 336 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 1: I mean, have you had a similar experience. I would 337 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 1: actually give you a lot of credit, mister speaker. You 338 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 1: were way early on this five giuahwei thing, because I've 339 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: known you for a long time, and you were talking 340 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 1: about this before it was a thing as the young 341 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 1: people say, or before it was cool, and so I 342 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: actually think you did a really important service by banging 343 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 1: the drum and being out there on this issue many 344 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: years ago. Because I think there is somewhat of at 345 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 1: least an accepted consensus that this is a problem. We 346 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 1: haven't fully gotten our act together as a country. Some 347 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 1: of it is because of the bureaucratic issues, some of 348 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: it because of perhaps some special interest issues. But I 349 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: think you actually did something really important by calling attention 350 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 1: to this when frankly, no one else really was, and 351 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 1: frankly it required conservatives like yourself to kind of sound 352 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 1: the alarm. No one else was doing this five years ago, 353 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 1: you were doing this, And so I think we've made 354 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 1: some progress. I think we still need to leverage new 355 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: technology so that we can get the next generation of tech. 356 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: Six G isn't hahwei control. So for example, mister speaker, 357 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,439 Speaker 1: I like Ukraine, and I want Ukraine to win against Russia. 358 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 1: What Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine. They should defeat the Russians, 359 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 1: and then we want them to be a wealthy, prosperous, 360 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 1: full cardcring member of the West. A lot of their 361 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 1: tech sector, and it's a great tech sector, is built 362 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 1: on Wawi technologies. My view is that going forward, we're 363 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: going to have to ask the Ukrainians to take all 364 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: of that Huawei infrastructure pull it out of the ground 365 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 1: and burn it. They need to replace that if they 366 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 1: want to be a full fledged member of the West. 367 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 1: So I think you're right. I think there's been some 368 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: progress because of voices like yours, but we haven't yet 369 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: fully landed on a strategy yet. You see kind of 370 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,959 Speaker 1: half measure answers from the Biden administration on this. If 371 00:19:50,000 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 1: we're not doing enough. You've said recently in the Hill 372 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 1: that we should start Ukraine's European Union negotiations. Now why 373 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 1: do you think it's important in the middle of this 374 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 1: war to begin having a conversation about them becoming part 375 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 1: of the European Union? And won't that actually deepen and 376 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 1: stiffen Russian opposition. We've been writing a big commission on 377 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: Ukraine reconstruction here at CSIS for the last nine months 378 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,119 Speaker 1: and I've done probably one hundred and fifty interviews. We 379 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 1: convene a very high level commission of Republicans and Democrats, 380 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:40,959 Speaker 1: and we've done a lot of research. And my bumper 381 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: sticker after all this work, and you can take a 382 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 1: look at the report, is that we need to tie 383 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 1: all the reconstruction for Ukraine's ultimate accession into the European Union. 384 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: The European Unions basically sent them a save the date 385 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 1: saying we'd like you to join at some point. The 386 00:20:58,000 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 1: only way they're going to kind of change some of 387 00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 1: the corrupt practices and some of the special interest in 388 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:07,360 Speaker 1: chronic oligarch behavior is to have some kind of massive 389 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:11,119 Speaker 1: carrot to kind of change their behaviors and change the 390 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 1: way they think about themselves. And so I think you've 391 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 1: seen this in other places Spain, You've seen this in 392 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 1: places like Croatia or Poland as they've joined the European Union. 393 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 1: It's like, what will you do to join the coolest 394 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,879 Speaker 1: fraternity or sorority at a university? What hazing are you 395 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,120 Speaker 1: willing to put up with to join it? It's sort 396 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 1: of like hazing. It's more complicated than that, but it's 397 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 1: like a big incentive for you to join something that's 398 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,400 Speaker 1: really attractive. My view is they're going through a violent, 399 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: angry divorce with Russia after four hundred years. They're changing 400 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 1: their language, they're changing which Orthodox church they go to, 401 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 1: They're changing what day they celebrate Christmas. They're changing where 402 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,280 Speaker 1: they get their electricity, where they get their energy, and 403 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 1: who they trade with. And so I think part of 404 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 1: that is shifting. I also think, frankly, we ought to 405 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 1: consider having them join NATO, and if they're not going 406 00:21:58,040 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 1: to join NATO, then we had to treat them like 407 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: a new Israel. We don't have a treaty of alliance 408 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,359 Speaker 1: with Israel, or we have something that kind of rhymes 409 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 1: with the treaty alliance with Israel. And I think that 410 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: goes back to my hyahwei comment earlier. If we're going 411 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,919 Speaker 1: to have a new kind of technology partnership, especially in 412 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 1: the fence world, we don't want that stuff traveling on 413 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: Huawei Wire's no way. Ukraine did have a tradition of 414 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,440 Speaker 1: being known as a pretty corrupt place. We are now 415 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: sending a pretty significant amount of money. What steps do 416 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 1: we need to take to ensure that the American taxpayers 417 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 1: money is not just drifting into corruption. It's a really 418 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,359 Speaker 1: important question, mister speaker, Thanks for asking it. Look, I 419 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 1: think it's in our interest for Ukraine to win, and 420 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,880 Speaker 1: it's in our interest for Russia to be defeated. We 421 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,880 Speaker 1: have a series of what are called inspector generals. There's 422 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,119 Speaker 1: the State Department inspector general. There's a Department of Defense 423 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: inspector General. There's the Usaid Inspector General. There's a department 424 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,880 Speaker 1: of the Treasure Inspector General. They were given as part 425 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 1: of this last supplemental a significant amount of money to 426 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,399 Speaker 1: make sure that they could kind of police and watch 427 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:04,120 Speaker 1: the moneys that are being allocated by the United States 428 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: and the American people to support the war effort, both 429 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,680 Speaker 1: the non military assistance and the military assistance. I will 430 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,160 Speaker 1: say it is a corrupt country. There's an organization called 431 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:17,880 Speaker 1: Transparency International and they rank countries by perception of corruption. 432 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: It's not a perfect measure. It's like you perceive how 433 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 1: corrupt you are, so maybe it's real, maybe it's not. 434 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 1: But it's sort of on the same ranks as Mexico, Indonesia, Panama, 435 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,639 Speaker 1: and Kazakhstan. So it is a corrupt place. But I 436 00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: think there's sort of three narratives about corruption in Ukraine. 437 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,439 Speaker 1: The first narrative is the Vladimir Putin narrative, mister speaker, 438 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 1: which is Ukraine is so broken and so corrupt, it's 439 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: a fake country. Give it to me and I'll run 440 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,919 Speaker 1: it because it's so broken. It's an obnoxious narrative, but 441 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,720 Speaker 1: that is in essence what the narrative is. The second 442 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:53,920 Speaker 1: narrative is a narrative I hear from the high level 443 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,440 Speaker 1: officials Zelenski administration when I talk to them about corruption. 444 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 1: Sometimes they will say things like, well, when I hear corruption, 445 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 1: I'm hearing Russian disinformation. Well that's an unhelpful narrative too, 446 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 1: mister speaker, because we both know there is corruption in Ukraine. 447 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 1: So we need a third narrative about Ukraine and corruption. 448 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,359 Speaker 1: The country shouldn't be defined by its corruption. It's a 449 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: corrupt place, just like Chicago's a corrupt place. But they've 450 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 1: done a number of things since twenty fourteen, since the 451 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 1: Revolution of Dignity, they've really taken a much more serious 452 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:25,919 Speaker 1: set of steps. And it's sort of like if you 453 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 1: lift up a rock and you find ants underneath the rock. 454 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 1: There were ants before, but now you've lifted up the 455 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:33,879 Speaker 1: rock and you can see the ants. And so I 456 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 1: think we should give them a little bit of credit 457 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: for kind of taking some of this on. He's taken 458 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,920 Speaker 1: some steps recently. So I think we got to dance 459 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 1: with the one we've rung with, like this is the 460 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 1: horse we're with. But I think we need to have controls, 461 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 1: and I think the current set of inspector generals have 462 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 1: the ability to do that. And two we need to 463 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 1: continue to have ongoing dialogue with them on this. And 464 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 1: as part of the EUX session, the EU said, if 465 00:24:58,000 --> 00:24:59,400 Speaker 1: you want to become a member of the EU, there's 466 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 1: seven but gets of things that you need to do 467 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:06,120 Speaker 1: to become a member. Five of those buckets are governance buckets, 468 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 1: like anti corruption, rule of law buckets. So this EU 469 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,400 Speaker 1: accession is sort of the vehicle by which we can 470 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,960 Speaker 1: engage them to do things that might be hard for them. 471 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 1: What we want is fifteen years from now, mister speaker, 472 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 1: for them to have the quality of governance, if I 473 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 1: can use that term of say a Bulgaria or a Romania. 474 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:26,600 Speaker 1: I'm not looking for Swedish or Switzerland quality levels of 475 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 1: governance in Ukraine, but I'll take Bulgarian or Romanian levels 476 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,480 Speaker 1: of governance. What is at stake for the US if 477 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 1: in fact Ukraine collapses and Russia woods, Oh boy, it's 478 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: really bad. And I think your listeners you have a 479 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 1: really smart set of listeners. As I said earlier, I 480 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,640 Speaker 1: listened to your podcasts, so I know your listeners will 481 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 1: appreciate this. I think the stakes are really high in Ukraine. 482 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 1: First of all, we've had a set of rules since 483 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,120 Speaker 1: World War Two that says invading somebody else to kind 484 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 1: of redraw the map lines is not accepted practice. So 485 00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 1: if we let Vladimir Putin come in and kind of 486 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:03,159 Speaker 1: redraw the pan map lines to suit his desires is 487 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:07,200 Speaker 1: going to create an extremely bad precedent. China is watching 488 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:08,880 Speaker 1: this and they're saying, oh, well, if he can get 489 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,679 Speaker 1: away with this, and all we do is send diplomats 490 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: and wag our fingers and say that's terrible, or that 491 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,160 Speaker 1: he says, well, I can stand the amount of sanctions 492 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,199 Speaker 1: that you put on me. What we want us for 493 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 1: him to have such a bad experience with Ukraine, of 494 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,879 Speaker 1: having invaded Ukraine and it crippling his economy, breaking the 495 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 1: back of his military, humiliating him. What we want is 496 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 1: that because we want him to say, oh my gosh, 497 00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,199 Speaker 1: the Russians are not going to invade Ukraine for the 498 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,440 Speaker 1: next two hundred years. It was such a bad experience. 499 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: And we want the Chinese to see that too, because 500 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,480 Speaker 1: we want them to say, boy, did you see what 501 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,879 Speaker 1: happened to the Russians when they tried to do Ukraine. 502 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 1: If we try and do Taiwan and that happens to us. 503 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,199 Speaker 1: We don't want that to happen to us, and so 504 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:53,359 Speaker 1: we want to have a weaker Russia. Means that China 505 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,639 Speaker 1: has a weaker wingman, and it makes it harder for 506 00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:02,080 Speaker 1: China to invade Taiwan if we have a weaker Russia. 507 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:06,360 Speaker 1: So and emboldened Russia emboldens China. But it also there's 508 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,399 Speaker 1: a series of five or ten other places in the 509 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 1: world where there's some kind of really obscure border disputes. 510 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 1: I won't list them all here, but there's, for example, 511 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:18,280 Speaker 1: this really obscure one in Guyana and Venezuela. The Venezuelans 512 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 1: they say, well, I'm twenty times bigger than Guyana. I'll 513 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 1: just march on the obscure part of Guyana. Two thirds 514 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,960 Speaker 1: of Guyana they think is mine. If we open that 515 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,159 Speaker 1: box up, it creates sort of a terrible precedent for 516 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 1: kind of redrawing maps by military force. But the second 517 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 1: is we don't want some really awful bad person like 518 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:39,120 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin to be able to do this. I think 519 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,879 Speaker 1: the American people have a really strong sense of fairness, 520 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 1: and I think the illegal invasion by Russia of Ukraine 521 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,920 Speaker 1: has spoken to the American people across the political spectrum 522 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 1: saying that this is deeply unfair. It's interesting and important. 523 00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:57,360 Speaker 1: I know the Estonian intelligence support just came out. They 524 00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 1: have a real fear that if the Russians win in 525 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 1: Ukraine that with a very few years they'll start putting 526 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 1: pressure on the three Baltic states and Poland and Romania. 527 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,679 Speaker 1: And it's not like this is a one time moment, 528 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 1: but this is if Putin learns, is that force works, 529 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,320 Speaker 1: that we enter a radically more dangerous world. I mean, 530 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,719 Speaker 1: does that fit your sense of what's happening, mister speaker. 531 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:22,440 Speaker 1: I agree with you, that's right. He's not going to 532 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:27,000 Speaker 1: be satisfied with just taking chunks of Ukraine. He's going 533 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 1: to take a chunk of Moldova. He might want to 534 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 1: take those Baltic states. There's been noises about Poland. He 535 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,119 Speaker 1: also thinks some of the lines in Kazakhstan need to 536 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 1: be redrawn. So there's at least five places that he'd 537 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 1: like to kind of redraw the lines of the map 538 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 1: to suit his needs or his aggrandizement of a greater rush, 539 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 1: or whatever his delusions are. We both have the immediate 540 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 1: challenge of Putin in Ukraine, But as you point out 541 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 1: in your new book, we have this worldwide challenge and 542 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,400 Speaker 1: we have to really think through a long term American 543 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 1: strategy in a system for sustain it. We did that. 544 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 1: You could argue that the Cold War runs from about 545 00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 1: nineteen forty six to nineteen ninety one, and we sustained 546 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: it for forty five years because we thought it was necessary. 547 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,480 Speaker 1: And I think your new book is a real contribution 548 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,640 Speaker 1: to starting to think through what's the shape of this 549 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,520 Speaker 1: next struggle and what do we have to do. So 550 00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 1: I really want to thank you for joining me your 551 00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:28,280 Speaker 1: new book, The American Imperative Reclaiming Global Leadership through Soft Power. 552 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 1: I think it's very important for anybody who wants to 553 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 1: understand both the strategic threats but also what we can 554 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 1: do to mobilize elements of soft power all around the planet. 555 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 1: We're going to list that on our show page and 556 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 1: encourage people to buy it. And Dan, I want to 557 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 1: thank you for joining. This has been a very very 558 00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 1: I think, educational and informative version of this world. Thanks 559 00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 1: mister Speaker. It's a privilege to be on your show. 560 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guests. Daniel Rundey. You can get 561 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,000 Speaker 1: a link to buy his new book, The American Imperative 562 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:04,200 Speaker 1: on our show page at newtsworld dot com. News World 563 00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 1: is produced by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive 564 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:12,000 Speaker 1: producer is Garnsey Sloan, our producer is Rebecca Howe, and 565 00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:16,000 Speaker 1: our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show 566 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 1: was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team 567 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,640 Speaker 1: at Gingwish three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I 568 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 1: hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate us 569 00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,800 Speaker 1: with five stars and give us a review so others 570 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 1: can learn what it's all about. Right now, the listeners 571 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,080 Speaker 1: of newts World consign up for my three free weekly 572 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:39,880 Speaker 1: columns at Gingwish three sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm 573 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,120 Speaker 1: Newt Gingrich. This is news World