1 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: On this episode of Newtsworld, we are experiencing the highest 2 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:12,040 Speaker 1: inflation in forty years at eight point five percent. The 3 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to try to curb inflation, 4 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 1: but did they act too late? And the price of 5 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 1: gas to fill up your car has increased significantly, costing 6 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 1: the average American driver fifty six dollars more per month 7 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: according to Kelly Bluebook Research. Lately, we've been hearing from 8 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 1: economists about the possibility that we're headed towards a recession. 9 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,639 Speaker 1: Here to talk about all of these issues on the economy, 10 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: I'm really pleased to welcome back my guest, Thomas Hunting. 11 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 1: He served as vice chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. 12 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:51,600 Speaker 1: From two twelve until twenty eighteen, he was President and 13 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: Chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. 14 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: He currently is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Catas 15 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: Center at George Mason University. Thomas, thank you for joining 16 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: us once again. We're very welcome. It's good to be 17 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: working again. You know, the last time you were on 18 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:24,200 Speaker 1: the podcast was December eighteenth. We talked about the December 19 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:29,479 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve meetings what did the propose and what came 20 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: of it? Well, they basically talked about the risk of inflation, 21 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:39,119 Speaker 1: but they didn't do anything in December except to say 22 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: they were going to do something maybe later, and they 23 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 1: did finally act in March. And remember they also continued 24 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 1: easing from December through March in terms of their purchases 25 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: of government securities and mortgage backed security, so they were 26 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 1: in an easy mode keeping interest rates low at that time, 27 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: so they really didn't start any tight until this past month. 28 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 1: You know, the Humphrey Hawkins Act change the nature of 29 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 1: the FED by making employment equally as important as the 30 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: value of the dollar. Do you think in retrospect that 31 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 1: that was a mistake by dividing the Fed's responsibilities from 32 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 1: on the one hand, protecting the dollar from inflation or deflation, 33 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: but on the other hand saying now you should only 34 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: protect it within the context of full employment. I think 35 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: that may have tended to confuse things, but it never 36 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: really bothered me in terms of having that mentioned in there, 37 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: because if the Fed were, in my opinion, doing things 38 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: with the long term perspective, which is what their mandate is, 39 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: it's a long term stable prices and interest rates if 40 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 1: they've been looking at the long run, there's no inconsistency 41 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 1: between stable prices and the full employment. Can't have one 42 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 1: without the others. I think we may learn again here 43 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 1: in the next several months or a couple of years 44 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: as we go forward from here. So that didn't bother me. 45 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: I think the real question is are you focusing on 46 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 1: the long run and long run price stability. If you 47 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: can do that, you can also keep employment in mind. 48 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: I mean, part of the challenge has been that over 49 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 1: the long run, we've gradually devalued the dollar in a 50 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 1: way which somebody once said in the Carter years that 51 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 1: they finally had hope of becoming a millionaire, but realized 52 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: that would be the price of a big mac. I mean. 53 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: The Labor Department said that the consumer price index jumped 54 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: in March by eight point five percent from twelve months ago. 55 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: Several people argue with me that actually understates the rate 56 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: of inflation, because if you do it on a month 57 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 1: by month basis, is actually even higher than eight point 58 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: five percent, although I think eight point five percent is 59 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 1: pretty significant inflation. And apparently the wholesale price index just 60 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: jumped by an even bigger number, which normally has to 61 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: work its way through the system. So if you get 62 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: a big wholesale price index, you're going to get later 63 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 1: on a bigger consumer price index. I mean, is that 64 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 1: a pretty accurate way of thinking about it? Well, it's 65 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: fairly accurate. Now, wholesale prices don't necessarily completely pass through 66 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 1: to the consumer. It depends on how much profits are 67 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 1: impacted by the producer, who may absorb some of those 68 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 1: increasing costs rather than passing them all on. Depends on 69 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 1: the market. But as a general statement, they certainly correlate. 70 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 1: As one goes up, the other should follow as well, 71 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:42,599 Speaker 1: only higher, I would say. The other thing is I've 72 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 1: always had a little bit of trouble with this idea 73 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:46,279 Speaker 1: that we ought to have a little bit of inflation, 74 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 1: the target being two percent. If you think about two 75 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 1: percent inflation over a generation, that's a huge evaluation of 76 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 1: the dollar. So we ought to be actually shooting for 77 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 1: stable prices and we can take a little bit of 78 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 1: deflation and a a little bit of inflation averages out and 79 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 1: I think we do better in the long run than 80 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 1: this pretend target of two percent to make our monetary 81 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:10,360 Speaker 1: policy more effective. So I really think the central bank 82 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: needs to focus on price stability as a primary goal, 83 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 1: then other long term goals will follow. Jack Kemp used 84 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 1: to point out that in the nineteenth century they actually 85 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 1: issued one hundred year railroad bonds because they had such 86 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: confidence that the dollar would remain a dollar. And of 87 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: course from the time we went off of gold and 88 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 1: went to paper money, we've had a sort of steady 89 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: erosion of the purchasing power of the dollar drop to 90 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 1: the present. Well, we were on a gold standard, you 91 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: had confidence in the value of the dollar remaining that way. 92 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:46,799 Speaker 1: You know, we ran a trade surplus for one hundred 93 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:50,239 Speaker 1: years up until nineteen seventy one. That's when we started 94 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 1: these trade deficits. That's when we devalue. That's when we 95 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:59,119 Speaker 1: started printing money very prolifically, and when we really began 96 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: our bouts of sustained inflation. I always thought it was 97 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 1: weird that Arthur Burns, who knew better and had been 98 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: chairman of the FED, ended up being Nixon's sort of 99 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: agent at getting us off the gold standard and going 100 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 1: into for a brief period wage in price controls. The 101 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: whole thing was just totally destructive. It's amazing to have 102 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: individuals who are so committed to not having wage and 103 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: price controls and not printing money so freely doing so. 104 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 1: It's unfortunate, but you're right, that's what happened. Now you 105 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:33,160 Speaker 1: have two different things going on. If I can draw 106 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: a distinction and correct me if I got this wrong. 107 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: I mean, on the one end, you have inflation, which 108 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 1: is a monetary phenomenon of the value of the dollar. 109 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 1: On the other hand, you can have specific shortages that 110 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 1: aren't necessarily inflationary, although there are much higher prices. So 111 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 1: the degree to which the gasoline index has gone up, 112 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: for example, of the degree to which in the short 113 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,839 Speaker 1: run we're going to see a real spike in wheat 114 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 1: and other food commodities because Ukraine and Russia are going 115 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,599 Speaker 1: to be exporting so much less. Those are actually price 116 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: hikes that could or could not be inflationary by themselves. 117 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: I mean, is that an accurate distinction. It is? Those 118 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 1: are the life factors. So you have a food shortage, gasoline, whatever, 119 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: and prices are just up and you substitute others, you 120 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 1: consume less. You may have a higher price, but it 121 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: doesn't keep going up over time. It just doesn't continually 122 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: go up. Now, when you get inflation when you go 123 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: to the other side of that, the demand side, and 124 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: if in fact the central bank prints money and puts 125 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 1: that money out there for individuals, so you have now 126 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: more money chasing those fewer goods, you can have inflation. 127 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: As long as a central bank continues to do that, 128 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: crisis continue to rise. And that's really why they say 129 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Well, I remember I was 130 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 1: a soft more in nineteen eighty one, and I remember 131 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 1: when Paul Voker, as share of the FED, met with 132 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 1: his counterparts in other countries and they basically said to him, 133 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: if you don't get inflation under control, we're all going 134 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: to withdraw our support for the dollar. And he came 135 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: back home and he ratcheted up interest rates to create 136 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 1: a very steep recession. Reagan backed him up on it, 137 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 1: and he did break the back of inflation at a 138 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: time when it was horrendous. But everybody always has this 139 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: theory of a soft landing. Do you think the Fed's 140 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: going to be almost compelled to raise interest rates to 141 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,560 Speaker 1: a point where we'll have a direct impact on whether 142 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: or not we've slide into a recession. Yes, I do 143 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: think they will have to raise interest rates number one, 144 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:52,719 Speaker 1: they're very much behind the curve. You know, the recovery 145 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 1: from the pandemic, as bad as the pandemic was, and 146 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: I understand emergency measures, but the recovery started in basically 147 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: late summer twenty twenty, and the Federal Reserve continued its 148 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: crisis monetary policy of increasing base money one hundred and 149 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: twenty billion dollars every month all the way to this 150 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 1: last quarter when they then tapered it down to nothing. 151 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 1: So they continued an emergency monetary printing of money over 152 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 1: a fifteen month period longer than they needed to. So 153 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 1: now they have all this money searching to buy these goods, 154 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,479 Speaker 1: and so you have this inflation impression all the way. 155 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 1: You're going to have to do that as you're going 156 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: to have to raise interest rates. Zero is not an 157 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 1: equilibrium interest rate over a hung period of time, and 158 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 1: you're going to have to take some of this excess 159 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 1: money out. Remember their balance sheet before the pandemic was 160 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 1: a very large four and a half trillion Now it's 161 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 1: nine trillion dollars, so you don't have to trim that. 162 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 1: And when you do that and you try and bring 163 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: inflation down, you are going to have to raise rates 164 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 1: more than one time, more than March. You're gonna do 165 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: it in May. And as they say, through most of 166 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: this year, you're going to have to shrink the balance sheet, 167 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: and that's going to bring the likelihood of a recession, 168 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 1: make it much higher. And what I fear, to be 169 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: truthful with you, is they will start doing that, and 170 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: as they do, unemployment will begin to rise, and when 171 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 1: it does, they'll back off from that and they'll start 172 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 1: printing money again, and then inflation will pick up. That's 173 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 1: the experience we had in the seventies. So once they 174 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: begin this, as hard as it is and as painful 175 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,200 Speaker 1: it will be, and I don't think you can avoid 176 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 1: that pain, they better stick to it until they get 177 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: inflation numbers back down towards that to present goal of THEIRS. 178 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: And I think that's going to take a lot of 179 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 1: stamina to withstand the pressure they're going to get from 180 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: Congress and from the public. As the unemployment rate starts 181 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: to rise again above three and a half percent, back 182 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 1: towards five or five and a half percent, and we'll 183 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,679 Speaker 1: see then whether the Federal Reserve can really bring in 184 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 1: and stop to inflationary bosses. I remember in the late seventies. 185 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: We ended up with what we called stag inflation, where 186 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:31,599 Speaker 1: you had inflation while the economy was stagnating, but you 187 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 1: couldn't really gin up the economy because that created more inflation, 188 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: and you couldn't really stop the inflation because that made 189 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,719 Speaker 1: the economy even worse. And they were just sitting there 190 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 1: muddling their way through. So we had inflation, and both 191 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 1: administrations and the that said we're going to stop this, 192 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: and they raise interest rates and they tightened up on 193 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 1: fiscal policy. The economy slows down, and then they back 194 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: off from that, but when they do, they stop at 195 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 1: a place where inflation is higher, and then the economy 196 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:01,199 Speaker 1: starts to slow it. So they east policy again, and 197 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,200 Speaker 1: so inflation starts to rise and they say, oh no, 198 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: we got to tighten. They tightened for a while, but 199 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 1: unemployee starts to rise and they stop, but they stopped 200 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: at a place where inflation is higher. And they did 201 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 1: this three times before Paul Boker finally came in in 202 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: nineteen eighty and said we're going to break the back 203 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 1: of inflation, and it's going to be painful, and we're 204 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 1: going to do it. And that's what it took, and 205 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 1: at the time, he was not loved for it by 206 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 1: many people. And the other thing, which i'd be here 207 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 1: to get your reaction to, I don't think we've ever 208 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 1: discussed it, you know. I was one of the guys 209 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 1: working with Kemp and Art Laugher and Jude Winniski and 210 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 1: others arguing basically aid supply side rather than the demand 211 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:42,679 Speaker 1: side solution, which really was just to return to traditional 212 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: standard economics in a pre Kanziean sense that you can 213 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 1: either mop up money by shrinking the demand to a 214 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: point where the prices collapse because there's no demand, or 215 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 1: you can mop up money by increasing supply to a 216 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 1: point if they were willing to really pump gas and oil, 217 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 1: they would in fact bring down the price of oil 218 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 1: very rapidly. I once got attacked by Obama for having 219 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:11,560 Speaker 1: written a book called Gasoline at two fifty a gallon, 220 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: because I was arguing that the fracking revolution meant that 221 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 1: you were just going to see dramatic decline in the 222 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 1: price of oil, which I think got down to about 223 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: two to forty per a gallon. But at the time 224 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:25,479 Speaker 1: I was attacked on the grounds that it was impossible 225 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: and it was a crazy book, and I'm curious where 226 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 1: do you come down this notion that you can either 227 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:34,439 Speaker 1: mop it up by dramatically expanding supply or by dramatically 228 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 1: shrinking demand. Well, I mean, obviously the preferable way is 229 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: to provide the incentives that stimulates supply, supply of goods 230 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 1: and services, supply of the commodities, the ability to produce 231 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 1: that that increases productivity, it brings down prices at a 232 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: lower level. But if you print too much money over 233 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 1: a short period of time, it will not solve that 234 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 1: problem quickly. It's essential to really bringing the wealth of 235 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: the economy up, bringing real incomes up. But when you've 236 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 1: engaged in a monetary policy of creating artificial demand through 237 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,959 Speaker 1: the printing press, it can't solve that problem overnight. That's 238 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 1: going to take some adjustments and pain. Because they pegged 239 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 1: this interest rate and near zero over a long period 240 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: of time, you have more entire economic system at the 241 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: equilibrium around zero, which is not sustainable even with improved activity. 242 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: So we've got to go through this adjustment. We did 243 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: have a former chairman of the Fetters said that if necessary, 244 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: he would fly a helicopter just throw cash out right, 245 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: which didn't strike me. As a very reasonable physical policy. 246 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: But you know it could be a sign I'm too conservative. 247 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 1: I call that quantitative easy. That's basically what it is. 248 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: This last time, it was more out of a helicopter, 249 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 1: because you printed the money and then you distributed it 250 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 1: across the economy to individuals making one hundred thousand dollars 251 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 1: a year. They were getting well. I was in Italy. 252 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: Clister was the investor of the Vatican when the COVID 253 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: first broke in northern Italy, because they had one hundred 254 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: thousand Chinese workers, and he came back to Italy during 255 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 1: New Year's with a lot of them carrying COVID, and 256 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 1: so I'd seen firsthand how much it was causing pain 257 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 1: in the Italian system, and I wrote a newsletter which 258 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 1: I was told at the time was pretty influential, in 259 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: which I said, whatever the administration thinks they're going to do, 260 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 1: they should triple it, because the immediate impact is going 261 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: to be so horrendous that you're going to have to 262 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 1: get through this crisis. The problem was, I want to 263 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: do it once. I think the politicians did it either 264 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 1: three or four times. Our spending went up from about 265 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 1: four and a half trillion just before the pandemic, the 266 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: six and a half trillion in twenty twenty, and another 267 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 1: six and a half trade in twenty twenty one, and 268 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 1: it will be above five trillion this year. So yeah, 269 00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: the spending didn't stop, and that's really why we're having 270 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 1: accelerated inflation. I'm disappointed though, that people didn't anticipate that 271 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: that the over Market Committee, even though they were saying 272 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 1: it was transitory, didn't understand that they just printed another 273 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 1: four trillion dollars of base money and that had to 274 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 1: go somewhere, and so they needed to be backing away 275 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 1: from that a lot sooner. It's unfortunate, in my opinion, 276 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 1: that they didn't one last question about the inflation side 277 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 1: of this before we get into the consequences with energy 278 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 1: prices jumping Gasoline prices went of forty eight percent in 279 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 1: the last twelve months. The Biden administration currently wants us 280 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 1: to believe that this is Prutent's price hike. How much 281 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 1: of this do you ascribe to whatever the complexities are 282 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 1: of dealing with the Russian oil system, and how much 283 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 1: of this is a function of a lot of other things, 284 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 1: including reducing dramatically the ability to develop new oil sources 285 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 1: and gas sources in the United States. Well, I think 286 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 1: at the moment most of it is due to other factors. 287 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 1: I mean, the war with Russia got underway in February 288 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:10,360 Speaker 1: when we reported an almost eight percent inflation rate. So yes, 289 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 1: we've had some increasing inflation pressures from the war and 290 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 1: the disruptions of energy supplies since then, but we were 291 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,400 Speaker 1: well on our way to high inflation before that ever 292 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:25,120 Speaker 1: broke out, and before these restricted trade situations developed. So 293 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 1: most of it is due to the monetary policy and 294 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 1: the fiscal policy of the preceding two years. There were 295 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 1: many things done to restrict supply because of the concerns 296 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 1: for global warming. Understand those, but you're not going to 297 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 1: solve that problem overnight. And I think there's another area 298 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: where people thought they could solve it overnight by stopping production, 299 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 1: and you pay it with higher prices and less reserves, 300 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 1: so we're going to be paying for it for a while. 301 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 1: I noticed that one of the impacts on demand is 302 00:17:56,560 --> 00:18:01,119 Speaker 1: going to be that the FED raised interest rates in 303 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 1: a way that the current interest rate for a thirty 304 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:07,119 Speaker 1: year fixed mortgage jump from three percent to five percent 305 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 1: in the last year. And I think it's going to 306 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: go up more. But doesn't that virtually guarantee that the 307 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: price of houses will go down. They certainly should go down. Yes, 308 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 1: when you raise the interest rate, the value goes down, 309 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 1: and houses are certainly going to be affected by these 310 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 1: higher interest rates to be less demand. I don't know 311 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: how big the client would be, but certainly they should 312 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:33,400 Speaker 1: stop increasing as demand hold back in. These higher interest 313 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 1: rates have to be paid, and we'll see that happen. 314 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: We'll see it happen in other assets as well. I 315 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,639 Speaker 1: think you see it becoming more apparent in the stock market, 316 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: and you'll see it in commercial real estate and other assets. 317 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: That's the effect of long term interest rates rising. Yeah, 318 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 1: it just seems that there's almost a direct correlation that 319 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 1: low interest rates are higher housing prices, and higher interest 320 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,359 Speaker 1: rates are lower housing prices, which then of course has 321 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 1: a multiplier effect in terms of the guys who are 322 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: building houses, the lumber industry, I mean, lots of other 323 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 1: factors that start to come in. Now. The two places 324 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:14,160 Speaker 1: I think where people really feel immediately pricing are gasoline 325 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 1: and food, and both of those that seems to me 326 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 1: are likely to be a significant problem, A fair amount 327 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: of pain in the next year. But I noticed that 328 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: Biden has announced they're going to put a million barrels 329 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: a day on the market from the strategic reserve. In 330 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: the long run, is adding a million barrels a day 331 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 1: change the long term pattern of pricing or is it 332 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,920 Speaker 1: just a sort of a short term taking an aspirin. 333 00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 1: It's going to be short term because it's not a 334 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 1: supply that is permanent. I mean, these are reserves, after all. 335 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 1: The hope, I think is you add this. It has 336 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 1: a marginal effect that helps in the short term, and 337 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 1: by the time you stop putting that million extra barrels 338 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 1: that was reserves out a day, that you will have 339 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 1: production back in place, either from the Mid East or 340 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,199 Speaker 1: Russia or wherever it is on the global market, and 341 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 1: that will then replace this temporary band aid called the 342 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,119 Speaker 1: million barrels a day, and you get back to normal. 343 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 1: That's I think is the intention of this effort. I 344 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 1: noticed that when you were on Mornings with Maria on 345 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 1: April six, you predicted that there would be a recession 346 00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 1: next year if the FED reserve continues an aggressive tightening. 347 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: Do you think they have the nerve to continue tightening 348 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 1: enough if it begins to be obvious, said they're going 349 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 1: to cause a recession. I don't think they have the nerve. No, 350 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:07,040 Speaker 1: I don't, And on their patterns over the last three 351 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,640 Speaker 1: to four years or so, in September twenty nineteen, there 352 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,440 Speaker 1: was a pickup in the market and they immediately started 353 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,640 Speaker 1: quantita it easy at the rate of sixty billion a month. 354 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 1: And every time there's been a bit of a slowdown, 355 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 1: they've backed off of any tightening program. So, based on 356 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 1: their past actions, I predict they would not have the 357 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 1: staining power to bring inflation down if unemployment starts to rise, 358 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:37,160 Speaker 1: or if the market becomes more volatile. So how could 359 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: they operate to both stop inflation and encourage economic growth 360 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 1: and jobs. I think right now the thing they're hoping 361 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:48,640 Speaker 1: for us, the so called so off landing, I don't 362 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 1: see it happening. When you're this far behind the curve, 363 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 1: you have to tighten policy and keep it there. That 364 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:57,239 Speaker 1: usually slows the economy. Now, in the long run, the 365 00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: fact that you bring inflation down should help the economy 366 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:04,160 Speaker 1: regain its momentum and regain its balance and being able 367 00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 1: to produce. But that's kind of the Paul Volker effect. 368 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 1: You got to get through the pain to the other side, 369 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 1: and then you can begin to normalize interest rates and 370 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,879 Speaker 1: allow the economy to function as it should. That's what 371 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: the monetary policy people can do. I was a freshman 372 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 1: during Jimmy Carter's last two years, and then I was 373 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: a sophomore during Reagan's first two years. And one of 374 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 1: the mistakes that was made was on the three year 375 00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 1: tax cut. We only put half of the amount in 376 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 1: the first year. On the fiscal side, we were understimulating 377 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 1: economic growth, and on the federal reserve side, Walker was 378 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,720 Speaker 1: doing what he should do, which was dramatically raise rates 379 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 1: to the point that he broke the back of inflation. 380 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 1: And as I said earlier, he did that with Reagan's support. 381 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:58,200 Speaker 1: It cost us twenty nine seats that fall, because we 382 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 1: were in a procession then roaring back by nineteen eighty 383 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:05,920 Speaker 1: four and had a great economy, and Reagan carried forty 384 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: nine states on the theme of mourning in America. So 385 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: if you were Biden, would you encourage whatever it took 386 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 1: to kill the inflation in two twenty two in the 387 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,200 Speaker 1: first half of twenty three, in the hopes you could 388 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 1: then be having a pretty dramatic economic recovery. Or would 389 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:31,360 Speaker 1: the fear of what really rapid increase in interest rates 390 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,160 Speaker 1: will do to you this fall in terms of crushing 391 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 1: the Congressional Democratic Party, would that lead you to be 392 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:42,919 Speaker 1: sort of very very cautious about imposing that level of 393 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 1: pain on the American people. Well, I would recommend that 394 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 1: you put some pretty stiff monetary policy tightening in place 395 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 1: through the rest of this year and early next year 396 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:05,359 Speaker 1: and bring down That is your best hope of having 397 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: the economy recover. Then afterwards I don't know though, because 398 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 1: you're going to see unemployment rise and you're going to 399 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 1: lose seats, no question about it. But if you don't 400 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: do that and you let inflation continue on, you're going 401 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 1: to be much worse off two years, three years from them. 402 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 1: So it really have to bring this inflation back down 403 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,920 Speaker 1: or we will have another period of stagflation. I don't 404 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,680 Speaker 1: think there's any question about it. So they've really maneuvered 405 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: themselves into sort of a lose lose environment. They're painted 406 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:40,400 Speaker 1: into a corner. In my opinion, it's amazing. So if 407 00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 1: you were a consumer, would you buy now because it's 408 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: all going to be more expensive later? I would because 409 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 1: it is going to be expensive later eight and a 410 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 1: half maybe the peak. So that's the inflation. So right 411 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 1: now I'm at the lower end because next time, let's 412 00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,919 Speaker 1: say it's only eight percent, it's still eight percent higher, 413 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,439 Speaker 1: and the time after that it's seven and a half percent. 414 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,359 Speaker 1: Because you don't have a gold standard, it doesn't go down. 415 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:10,400 Speaker 1: You don't have deflation, you just have less inflation, right, 416 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:15,679 Speaker 1: so your dollars continue to decline in relative value. I 417 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 1: think a lot of people are really concerned about the 418 00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 1: next several years and don't have any good feel for, 419 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 1: you know, what's going to happen. What should they be 420 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,159 Speaker 1: worried about, and how should they be focused If you 421 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: were talking to just everyday folks, both about jobs and 422 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,639 Speaker 1: about prices, how would you sort of describe for them 423 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 1: the possibilities over the next three to five years. Well, 424 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,400 Speaker 1: I think we are actually at the start of some 425 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,680 Speaker 1: of the harder events that we have to get through, 426 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:49,920 Speaker 1: and that is we're at the start of an interest 427 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:53,239 Speaker 1: rate cycle that's going to be increasing, and that's going 428 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,719 Speaker 1: to affect many things in the economy. It is going 429 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,840 Speaker 1: to affect prices of housing, it is going to affect 430 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:03,280 Speaker 1: our standard of Until we get this inflation number down, 431 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:07,440 Speaker 1: so we have to be prepared for some pretty difficult 432 00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 1: times ahead over the next i'd say twelve months or more. 433 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 1: For things that I really need, now is the time 434 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 1: to buy it. I would otherwise prepare for a slowdown 435 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 1: in the economy. As interest rates rise. We are going 436 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,600 Speaker 1: to see jobs lost, we are going to see real 437 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 1: income decline as it already is. And I can't solve 438 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 1: that problem. All I can do is let's get through it. 439 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:38,240 Speaker 1: Let's not hesitates, get things back on and even keel. 440 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: Let's get inflation back down below two percent so we 441 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 1: can begin to live again. And that's going to take 442 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,119 Speaker 1: a year to two years. I want to thank you 443 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 1: for joining me again. This is really helpful, and you 444 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 1: understand this so well. I can assure you if you'll 445 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,600 Speaker 1: put up with us, we're almost certainly going to come 446 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 1: back in the future. Ask for your continued wisdom. I 447 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,440 Speaker 1: do thank your experience in your sights are just invaluable. 448 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 1: And I hope that people will find this particular conversation 449 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,160 Speaker 1: helpful because I think people are really confused and really uncertain, 450 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 1: and I think you help them get a much better 451 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 1: grip on it with this conversation. So thank you. Very 452 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 1: very much. I hope I've been helpful and not come 453 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:25,680 Speaker 1: back anytime. Thank you, Thank you to my guest Thomas Hunting. 454 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,000 Speaker 1: You can read more about the current economic indicators on 455 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,960 Speaker 1: our show page at newtsworld dot com. Newts World is 456 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 1: produced by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer 457 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:43,120 Speaker 1: is Garnsey Sloan, our producer is Rebecca Howe, and our 458 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 1: researcher is Rachel Peterson. Y'all work for the show was 459 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 1: created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at 460 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,359 Speaker 1: Gingwich three sixty. If you've been enjoying news World, I 461 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,400 Speaker 1: hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate us 462 00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,800 Speaker 1: with five stars and give us a review so others 463 00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of 464 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:08,360 Speaker 1: Newtworld can sign up for my three free weekly columns 465 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 1: at Gingrich Street sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm newt Gingrich. 466 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 1: This is news World.