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Speaker 2: at the Volume, we have a very special show today.
Speaker 2: The guys from Nerd Sesh are coming to hang out.
Speaker 2: I have my list of contenders, which I believe is
Speaker 2: nine teams long, and the nine included a couple of
Speaker 2: fringe teams as well. So I've got eleven total teams
Speaker 2: and we're going to play a game. And the way
Speaker 2: this game is going to work is we're going to
Speaker 2: play higher or lower. And what that means is we're
Speaker 2: going to go through each team. We're going to talk
Speaker 2: about whether or not we are higher on that team
Speaker 2: than we were at the beginning of the season or
Speaker 2: lower on that team than we were at the beginning
Speaker 2: of the season. So you can't whimp out if you're
Speaker 2: on the fence. If you feel the same, you still
Speaker 2: have to lean one way or the other that's the game.
Speaker 2: But we're very excited to have Carson and Logan coming
Speaker 2: on the show today. Let's start with my number one
Speaker 2: championship contender coming into this season, the Denver Nuggets, Carson,
Speaker 2: Are you higher or lower on them than you were
Speaker 2: at the start of the season.
Speaker 3: So this is close to the scenario that you just
Speaker 3: described where I feel very similarly about this team, but
Speaker 3: I would say I'm a little bit higher on them.
Speaker 3: They are my title front runner right now, and part
Speaker 3: of that is a team like Milwaukee that I viewed
Speaker 3: on the same level, I now have more concerns about,
Speaker 3: so by at least maintaining their level, the Nuggets move
Speaker 3: up compared to them.
Speaker 4: But also there are some things on the margins.
Speaker 3: Reggie Jackson has been legitimately really impressive this year, and
Speaker 3: I think has brought some value to that second unit,
Speaker 3: which has always been sort of sketchy. You can have
Speaker 3: Jamal with those bench only units, but they have been
Speaker 3: lacking sort of in some offensive pop there, and he
Speaker 3: has been better than I expected. And then I think
Speaker 3: you look at some of the young guys on the wings.
Speaker 3: Christian Brown had some awesome moments in that playoff run,
Speaker 3: last year but was inconsistent. I think that he is
Speaker 3: a better all around player now in year two. Peyton Watson,
Speaker 3: I think you see the value of his athleticism, what
Speaker 3: he can do as a two way guy. His SHOT's
Speaker 3: been solid, So it's really just the depth stuff where
Speaker 3: I think that they've improved a bit compared to my
Speaker 3: preseason expectations. But the fundamental formula is the same. Best
Speaker 3: player on the planet, this perfect cohesive starting five. They're
Speaker 3: huge in the front court, they have awesome shooting. It's
Speaker 3: just the best offense in basketball. And I think that
Speaker 3: they can defend at a high level. So they are
Speaker 3: all so my title favorite.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I completely agree with Carson, and I think performance wise,
Speaker 5: record wise, I think i'd probably say that I'm lower
Speaker 5: on the Nuggets relative to the beginning end of the season.
Speaker 5: What I mean by that is, I just was so
Speaker 5: confident in Denver being the runaway number one seed in
Speaker 5: the Western Conference. But like Carson said, we're not basing
Speaker 5: this off of you know, record or anything. We're basing
Speaker 5: this off of what I expect them. They're moving forward.
Speaker 5: They are my title contender. Toad on that, I think
Speaker 5: Jokichen Murray are still the best duo in all of basketball,
Speaker 5: and I just have a different level of faith with
Speaker 5: this team continuity wise, defensively, chemistry wise, and the role
Speaker 5: players have gotten better. The Nuggets were not my title favorite.
Speaker 5: I was a Los Angeles Lakers enthusiast. The Nuggets are
Speaker 5: my title favorite now and I have come around. I'm
Speaker 5: very high on the Nuggets.
Speaker 2: So I'm higher as well. I had one concern, and
Speaker 2: I want to get back. I want to go round
Speaker 2: again to kind of get your guys' take on this.
Speaker 2: But the thing with Yokicic's jump shot concerns me a
Speaker 2: little bit, Like it's down almost twenty percent inefficiency from
Speaker 2: where it was last year. And last year he was
Speaker 2: efficient throughout the regular season and then was efficient in
Speaker 2: the postseason. The year before, he struggled in the regular season,
Speaker 2: and then he struggled in the postseason, And so it
Speaker 2: does concern me a little bit. But I think it's
Speaker 2: made up for the fact that they've been a much
Speaker 2: better regular season defense than they were last year. They've
Speaker 2: had a couple of months, specifically October and December, where
Speaker 2: they were both in those two months among the best
Speaker 2: defenses in the league. Reggie Jackson. You mentioned the offensive stuff.
Speaker 2: I actually like the way he's been competing on defense too.
Speaker 2: It's just another guard that'll fight over the top of
Speaker 2: the screen and compete. And then again, Peyton Watson just
Speaker 2: kind of replacing that Bruce Brown athleticism off of the bench,
Speaker 2: and Christian Brown as well. There's enough there to kind
Speaker 2: of make up for any sort of concern about Jokic's
Speaker 2: jump shot as it pertains to comparing to where I
Speaker 2: felt before the season. That said, as we know specifically
Speaker 2: in the Lakers series that over the top shot making
Speaker 2: was an important part of Denver's success. So let's start
Speaker 2: with you, Carson. Are you concerned at all about Jokic's
Speaker 2: jump shot and what that might mean for this year's
Speaker 2: postseason run?
Speaker 3: Not really, just because I still think in the scope
Speaker 3: of things, he's shooting the ball pretty damn well. He's
Speaker 3: thirty five percent from deep, which is a little bit
Speaker 3: below where he was last year in the regular season,
Speaker 3: and certainly not at the level he was at in
Speaker 3: the postseason, where he was forty six percent from three,
Speaker 3: And we know that that is the one component that
Speaker 3: makes him truly unguardable when in that pick and pop game.
Speaker 4: You can't leave him.
Speaker 3: When as a spot up guy he can hit forty
Speaker 3: five percent of his three's, blending that with the interior
Speaker 3: scoring dominance in playmaking. That's when it's like, cool, this
Speaker 3: is the best offensive player that we've ever seen. And
Speaker 3: he hasn't been at that level of sharp shooting, but
Speaker 3: fifty two percent for mid range. His bread and butter
Speaker 3: shots there are still mostly falling. We have seen that
Speaker 3: he can run hot and cold. It feels like every
Speaker 3: year he has that one little stretch where he's down,
Speaker 3: but generally when it comes to the postseason when it
Speaker 3: matters most, he's able to deliver with that big time
Speaker 3: skilled shot making.
Speaker 4: And I still have a lot of faith that he will.
Speaker 5: And it's important to preface that the last playoff run
Speaker 5: was one of the greatest runs ever by any player ever.
Speaker 5: To expect Jokic to be back at that level would
Speaker 5: to be to expect another one of the greatest runs ever.
Speaker 5: And while his perimeter shooting maybe down, like over his
Speaker 5: last ten games he's only shooting one to three a night,
Speaker 5: I still think he's getting to his good looks and
Speaker 5: there's just a level of confidence I have with Jokic
Speaker 5: is a shooter. He's just he's got great touch. Great shooters.
Speaker 5: That touch doesn't wane away, it doesn't leave you. He
Speaker 5: may be hitting a skid this year, but I think
Speaker 5: when it comes to playoff time, when the chips are down,
Speaker 5: there's nobody in the NBA that I have more confidence
Speaker 5: in showing up and performing than NICOLEA Jokicic.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to me, the optimism is that they didn't just
Speaker 2: win last year, they dominated last year. So like that
Speaker 2: there's this margin for error there. I do think the
Speaker 2: gap is a little bit more substantial than people realize. Like, yeah,
Speaker 2: he was a Jokic jump shot was worth one point
Speaker 2: two to one points for shot in the poseason last year,
Speaker 2: which is like absolutely insane, but it was worth one
Speaker 2: point one seven for the entire regular season. So like
Speaker 2: he shot nearly that level the entire regular season. He's
Speaker 2: down at one point zero four points per jump shot
Speaker 2: in this season. And we did see, like again in
Speaker 2: that Sixers game, there's a tendency that teams have right
Speaker 2: now to ignore him on the pick and pop, which
Speaker 2: was not a thing that you saw last year. Last year,
Speaker 2: there was so much more like driving that close out
Speaker 2: as guys are chasing him off of the three point line,
Speaker 2: so I do think it's worth mentioning. But again, they
Speaker 2: dominated last year, so there's a hefty gap. And then
Speaker 2: there's just so much more other things with Denver to
Speaker 2: be excited about, as it pertains to their defense and
Speaker 2: the young athleticism on the roster. Popping all right, moving
Speaker 2: on to my number two championship contender, the Boston Celtics. Logan,
Speaker 2: are you higher or lower on the Boston Celtics than
Speaker 2: you were to start the season.
Speaker 5: I can't believe I'm saying this, because my expectations were
Speaker 5: so high for the Boston Celtics coming into this year,
Speaker 5: I'm higher on them. This Celtics team is historically great.
Speaker 5: Just thirty one teams since two thousand have notched thirty
Speaker 5: two wins in their first forty one games. Ten of
Speaker 5: those teams won the title, and additional three made the
Speaker 5: NBA Finals, so the track record is good, and it's
Speaker 5: just such an absurdly talented collection of players.
Speaker 1: Tatum, JB.
Speaker 5: Porzengis, Holiday D White, Horford shooting the hell out of
Speaker 5: the ball. He's over forty percent this year, and they
Speaker 5: jill really well together. An interesting stat that I found
Speaker 5: about this team. Against the Spurs, the Celtics became the
Speaker 5: second only team in NBA history to make at least
Speaker 5: eleven more three pointers than their opponent in three consecutive games.
Speaker 5: The only other team to do that is the twenty
Speaker 5: sixteen Warriors. And I just think that speaks to how
Speaker 5: Boston can just boat race teams. They can just shoot
Speaker 5: you out of games. And it's a double it's a
Speaker 5: double edged sword because the one part of me says,
Speaker 5: come playoff time, they can just blow out teams game
Speaker 5: to game if they get hot. There's so many shooters
Speaker 5: down this roster that they can just shoot you out.
Speaker 5: But I also think there's a really heavy reliance on
Speaker 5: the three ball. That scares me that when they need
Speaker 5: shot variants the playoffs and they need to vary up
Speaker 5: that shot selection, can they do it. I'm higher on
Speaker 5: them because I've been so impressed at the talent. I've
Speaker 5: been so impressed at the defense and the shooting ceiling.
Speaker 5: I'm still a little scared about the Celtics in big moments,
Speaker 5: in grimy games and those rock fights that we see.
Speaker 5: Can they get it done. That being said, i am
Speaker 5: higher on them. This is a historically great start to
Speaker 5: this regular season.
Speaker 3: I'm higher on the Celtics two. I think that they
Speaker 3: have separated from the Bucks in terms of my Eastern
Speaker 3: Conference contenders, and so that's kind of the standard that
Speaker 3: I'm holding them to when I'm looking at how i
Speaker 3: feel relative to preseason expectations. And this is one of
Speaker 3: the most overwhelmingly talented basketball teams at the top of
Speaker 3: the roster that we've seen, and especially in terms of
Speaker 3: the third through fifth guys. To have legitimate All Star
Speaker 3: level players in terms of impact with Drew and KP
Speaker 3: and Derek White, dude to just makes so many winning
Speaker 3: plays in their respective ways. To compliment your two big
Speaker 3: time shot creators and shot makers on the wings, it's
Speaker 3: just really ideal modern basketball construction. I loved the KP addition.
Speaker 3: I thought some people undersold that he was legitimately coming
Speaker 3: off of a career year in Washington, and I understand
Speaker 3: that people didn't really value it that much in that situation,
Speaker 3: but he was defending at the highest level we'd seen.
Speaker 3: He was doing the most effective mismatch attacking and bullying
Speaker 3: out of the post that we'd ever seen, and that
Speaker 3: stuff has really translated. He adds a new dimension to
Speaker 3: this offense to me in terms of having that reliable
Speaker 3: guy who can finish around the rim on the interior,
Speaker 3: who can just brutalize mismatches out of the post where
Speaker 3: he has been mind bendingly efficients and overall just break
Speaker 3: that reliance on the three ball that Logan's talking about
Speaker 3: a bit, where you're not just necessarily settling for pull
Speaker 3: up three after pull up three or one pass catch
Speaker 3: and shoot threes. As we've seen, that's when things can
Speaker 3: go a little bit south for Boston, even though they
Speaker 3: are a great shooting team. They can get off there
Speaker 3: and then that's when the lulls can start to develop.
Speaker 3: And he's been an awesome interior defender, Like one of
Speaker 3: the most effective rim protectors in the league, Derek White
Speaker 3: was awesome stall star break, he's been even better this year.
Speaker 3: And when you look at crunch time offense, where the
Speaker 3: Celtics process has always been a bit of a concern,
Speaker 3: Tatum and Jalen breaking down a bit as playmakers turning
Speaker 3: the ball over too much settling for tough shots.
Speaker 4: He's a guy you can lean on. In fact, it's
Speaker 4: a small sample size.
Speaker 3: With all clutch stats in a regular season, but the
Speaker 3: Celtics offense has been great there and specifically KP is
Speaker 3: their number one clutch score and Derek White is their
Speaker 3: number three clutch score, so they just have more dues
Speaker 3: this year you can lean on in those settings. And
Speaker 3: I do think that Jason Tatum has improved, and there
Speaker 3: may be nothing on the ross stat sheet that reflects that,
Speaker 3: but the one complate that I've most consistently had about
Speaker 3: his game is that predictability and the reliance on the
Speaker 3: pull up threes in the postseason, and how his game
Speaker 3: can sort of fade away if those shots just aren't falling.
Speaker 3: He has really increased his post up volume this year
Speaker 3: and he has been awesome in those spots. He's averaging
Speaker 3: one point two points per post up, so he's been
Speaker 3: more physical in those situations, and we're seeing more shot
Speaker 3: variety for him, more comfort attacking from the mid range.
Speaker 3: So the Celtics just look better across.
Speaker 4: The board to me.
Speaker 3: Really, my only concerns are big depth if KP goes down,
Speaker 3: because we know that he is a historically very injury
Speaker 3: prone player, and I guess I would say that consistent
Speaker 3: crunch time offense and the ability still potentially to fall
Speaker 3: into those rules. But I am far less concerned about
Speaker 3: that this year than last year. It's just still a
Speaker 3: difference maker when I compare them to for example, Denver,
Speaker 3: and I do think that Denver has the more reliably
Speaker 3: great offense because they have the best player on the
Speaker 3: floor because he is always going to generate those high
Speaker 3: quality looks around the rim and in the paint, and
Speaker 3: they also have this elite shooting. But Boston is a
Speaker 3: phenomenal basketball team.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's less variance with what Denver does. I think
Speaker 2: that's what makes them a bit of a safer bet.
Speaker 2: And again, when we're talking about flaws with Boston, it's
Speaker 2: important to mention that, like there's a big drop off
Speaker 2: after this point in my opinion, and so that means
Speaker 2: like when we're discussing flaws.
Speaker 4: It's all relative to the field.
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of like specific things that
Speaker 2: they're better at than I expected. Tatum just being way
Speaker 2: bigger than he was last year has helped a lot.
Speaker 2: You talked about the leaning more on the post up
Speaker 2: attack as a method of just generating higher quality shots
Speaker 2: around the rim. Big shots chrisps porzingis fit ended up
Speaker 2: being perfect. They're leaning more into Derek White as an initiator.
Speaker 2: That's been kind of like their counter to some of
Speaker 2: Tatum's decision making stuff is like have him set ball
Speaker 2: screens for Derek White and kind of see if they
Speaker 2: can get some stuff out of that. The shooting variance
Speaker 2: thing is interesting because like, first of all, there's a
Speaker 2: lot more highs than lows on that front.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think.
Speaker 2: People realize just how crazy that stat Logan through out was, Like,
Speaker 2: think about that, over a three game stretch they outscored
Speaker 2: their opponent by more than one hundred points from the
Speaker 2: three point line, like that. That's absolutely insane, right, Like,
Speaker 2: that's a completely insane stat That said, I do think
Speaker 2: we're underplaying the Tatum pull up shooting thing a little bit.
Speaker 4: He's in a red hot stretch right now.
Speaker 2: He's twenty two for his last forty five over the
Speaker 2: Celtics last ten games, which is like almost a point
Speaker 2: and a half per shot, So like really really useful there.
Speaker 2: But it's very clear that Tatum's leaning into it, like
Speaker 2: he's hunting the pull up three. That is what he
Speaker 2: wants to take. The dead giveaway to me was he
Speaker 2: got Carl Towns on a switch at the end of
Speaker 2: the Minnesota Timberwolves game and had space to operate and
Speaker 2: looked for and made a move hunting a pull up
Speaker 2: three in a game where they were down by four
Speaker 2: in the final minute. So that tells you a lot
Speaker 2: about Tatum's approach. So last question before we move on
Speaker 2: from Boston, and I'll start with you, Carson, like, are
Speaker 2: you concerned at all about the fact that Tatum seems
Speaker 2: to be tying a good chunk of his success to
Speaker 2: whether or not to pull up three point shot falls.
Speaker 4: Yes, I am, and I.
Speaker 3: Don't mean to underplay that concern because I think that
Speaker 3: that has been a fundamental issue with the Boston Celtics,
Speaker 3: and they have been an extremely talented team. They're even
Speaker 3: more overwhelmingly talented now. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 3: I still think they need Jason Tatum to play at
Speaker 3: that consistent superstar level over the entirety of a playoff run.
Speaker 3: And he has had such high highs, but he has
Speaker 3: also had uncharacteristically low lows for a player.
Speaker 4: Of that caliber.
Speaker 3: Like the meme of how every other game or every
Speaker 3: three games, Jason Tatum's gonna shoot thirty percent is very real,
Speaker 3: and it's because of that heavy reliance on pull up
Speaker 3: threes where over the last couple seasons he's on a
Speaker 3: tear right now, but he hasn't that reliably been a
Speaker 3: very efficient pull up three point shooter, and he wasn't
Speaker 3: in the playoff run last year. So yes, I do
Speaker 3: think that that can bite them. And if I had
Speaker 3: more confidence in Tatum, like just consistently attacking from all
Speaker 3: over the floor, not falling into that over reliance on
Speaker 3: the pull up three, maybe Boston would be my title favorite.
Speaker 3: But it is the little things like that that still
Speaker 3: hold them back when I compare them to such a
Speaker 3: reliable juggernaut like Denver.
Speaker 1: It is the little things like that.
Speaker 5: And for example, I mean when he's in these lulls too,
Speaker 5: Tatum has the tendency to keep trying to shoot himself
Speaker 5: out of the lull, you know what I mean, In
Speaker 5: those late game situations, I just think the more easy
Speaker 5: offense is a kick down to the low block Tatum
Speaker 5: literally just driving and trying to get downhill and get
Speaker 5: the ball to touch the paint to collapse the defense
Speaker 5: that I know, Carson, I know, and I agree with
Speaker 5: a lot of what you said with White, with Borzingis,
Speaker 5: with Tatum playing better and being more dynamic. That is
Speaker 5: still my chief concern about the Boston Celtics. I don't
Speaker 5: know how it can be like they're going to give
Speaker 5: the rock to Tatum and it is on his shoulders
Speaker 5: to close out games when it comes to playoff time.
Speaker 5: That's still my biggest red flag about Boston and why
Speaker 5: I can't put them over Denver.
Speaker 2: To Carson's point, there have been eight games this season
Speaker 2: when Tatum shot below forty percent from the field. As
Speaker 2: a point of comparison, Shae yild justs Alexander has only
Speaker 2: had three such games. So that goes to show you
Speaker 2: just some of the variants as it pertains to the
Speaker 2: types of shots that Jason Tatum takes and how that
Speaker 2: can lead him to have some.
Speaker 4: Really really rough nights.
Speaker 2: All right, moving on to my number three, can tender
Speaker 2: the Milwaukee Bucks? Starting with you, Carson, are you lower
Speaker 2: higher or lower than you were on the Milwaukee Bucks
Speaker 2: before the season.
Speaker 3: I'm lower because they were my pick actually to win
Speaker 3: it all. I had them beating Denver in seven in
Speaker 3: my theoretical finals because I looked at this roster and
Speaker 3: I thought the one thing that this team has been
Speaker 3: missing consistently is that seamless, dynamic shot creator in the
Speaker 3: half court, and I thought there are very few guys
Speaker 3: who fill that role better than Damian Lillard. What I
Speaker 3: underestimated in that equation was how significant the step back
Speaker 3: this team would be would take defensively was because we
Speaker 3: are now looking at a team that is still struggling
Speaker 3: mightily with point of attack defense, that is twentieth in
Speaker 3: defensive rating, and that really consistently struggles to stop anyone.
Speaker 3: I also think that because of just the increased trend
Speaker 3: we've seen of them getting smaller and less athletic in
Speaker 3: the backcourt, this has gone from a dominant rebounding team,
Speaker 3: which they've consistently been with that huge front line with
Speaker 3: a bigger, more athletic, better rebounding guard like Drew Holiday
Speaker 3: to a team that is eighteenth in rebound rate. So
Speaker 3: just overall, that defensive ceiling has gone way, way, way down,
Speaker 3: and I don't see easy fixes on this roster. They're
Speaker 3: playing a guy like Andre Jackson Moore. He's doing a
Speaker 3: good job. Ultimately, he's not a dude who I think
Speaker 3: that you can lean on in a playoff run because offensively.
Speaker 3: I think that he's a guy who teams are probably
Speaker 3: going to ignore and he won't be able to make
Speaker 3: them pay. Marjon Bouchamp isn't a guy who's at that level,
Speaker 3: so that still needs to be addressed. And I think
Speaker 3: that the pipe dream of like an Alex Caruso is gone.
Speaker 3: I just don't think they have the assets to make
Speaker 3: that happen. I would be targeting a Quenton Grimes if
Speaker 3: I were them, because New York is apparently looking to
Speaker 3: move him. I think that his value is at an
Speaker 3: all time low. And no, that's not an ideal solution,
Speaker 3: but I do think it's an upgrade in terms of
Speaker 3: filling that three and D point of attack defender role.
Speaker 3: And then I have a couple other little concerns about Milwaukee,
Speaker 3: like Chris Middleton has been trending in the right direction,
Speaker 3: he's playing more. I would say that he's been good
Speaker 3: in his minutes. I just at this point am questioning
Speaker 3: can he play thirty two minutes a game over an
Speaker 3: entire playoff run? Can he stay healthy? Can he be
Speaker 3: at the level that they need? I still totally believe
Speaker 3: in him as a difficult shot maker and a playmaker.
Speaker 4: I worry though, a bit.
Speaker 3: About the athleticism at his age, the two way impact
Speaker 3: of the rebounding and Dame. I would say I have
Speaker 3: been a bit underwhelmed by just because he was coming
Speaker 3: off of maybe the best offensive season of his career,
Speaker 3: and I thought this will be a great situation playing
Speaker 3: with jan It's an awesome spot up shooting, but I
Speaker 3: think it's mostly just a shot making issue with him.
Speaker 3: Like his touch, shot making has been a bit off.
Speaker 3: He hasn't shot as well from three as we're used to.
Speaker 3: I still think he's a really good fit here. Defensively
Speaker 3: he's not been nearly good enough, but offensively, I still
Speaker 3: think he does solve a ton of their issues and
Speaker 3: they've been a really, really good offense this year. The
Speaker 3: tandem of him and Yannis, to me, still gives them
Speaker 3: a real chance against anybody. But the defensive issues are
Speaker 3: more pronounced than I expected.
Speaker 4: For sure.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I wanted to straddle defense on the Bucks. This
Speaker 5: is kind of what I expected from Milwaukee. I am
Speaker 5: lower on the moving forward, and it is because of
Speaker 5: the defense. Wonder if we took coach Budd a little
Speaker 5: for Granted, I know it's hard stepping in as a
Speaker 5: new coach, But I don't really think Adrian Griffin really
Speaker 5: has anything schematically or anything they can do in game.
Speaker 5: I think that really matters when it comes to playoff time.
Speaker 5: And I also don't think they have the personnel another
Speaker 5: defensive stet. The Milwaukee Bucks are once again the worst
Speaker 5: in the NBA forcing turnovers. They've lowest turnover rate defensively
Speaker 5: in the NBA. That matters to me too. Not only
Speaker 5: can they not get stops, they can't force big plays
Speaker 5: and get out and transition as easily as they used to.
Speaker 5: I think they need to make a move personnel wise.
Speaker 5: I think they have to go out and get somebody.
Speaker 5: But I don't really think this team can stop anybody
Speaker 5: that can get to the rack come playoff time, and.
Speaker 1: That matters to me.
Speaker 5: Like I think that it would make a series against
Speaker 5: the Knicks competitive. I think it would make a series
Speaker 5: against the Miami Heat competitive, Like I think the Bucks
Speaker 5: as great as they are offensively, and I agree with Carson,
Speaker 5: I would never count out a tandem of Dame and
Speaker 5: Giannis out from the finals. I think it's going to
Speaker 5: be a sweat against any team that Milwaukee goes up
Speaker 5: against because of the issues defensively.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I I'm lower as well. I started the season
Speaker 2: with them at number two originally, and then I moved
Speaker 2: the Celtics over them. The point of attack defensive issues
Speaker 2: ended up being way worse than I even thought they
Speaker 2: would be. You know, Dame was a really bad defensive
Speaker 2: player in Portland, but I always cut him the slack
Speaker 2: because that just wasn't what that team did well. Like,
Speaker 2: it was like it didn't even make sense for Dame
Speaker 2: to compete at the point of attack. They didn't even
Speaker 2: have a good back line defensively. But he's been like
Speaker 2: because I've watched so much tape on the Bucks this year,
Speaker 2: keying in on their defense, and like Malik Beasley's trying.
Speaker 2: He really is trying. He's just he's just a little
Speaker 2: he's small. He's a little small. And then like one
Speaker 2: out of every four possessions he'll make a mental mistake
Speaker 2: of some kind. But like he's trying, but like Dame
Speaker 2: could give a shit, Like, for lack of a better term,
Speaker 2: he is. Some of the most embarrassing defensive clips I've
Speaker 2: seen from a guard this season have come from Damian Lillard,
Speaker 2: and I'm not sure if that's one of those things
Speaker 2: where he plans on gearing up when they get closer
Speaker 2: to the postseason, or plans on making those efforts when
Speaker 2: he gets there. But they need to be transcendently great
Speaker 2: offensively to make up for the defense that they have.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 2: The offensive metrics they put up have been good, but
Speaker 2: there have been some stretches, particularly at the end of games,
Speaker 2: where they get a little indecisive about what they want
Speaker 2: to do. There's still some stuff with the Damiannis pick
Speaker 2: and roll where I feel like they're leaving some meat
Speaker 2: on the bone.
Speaker 4: There's still some.
Speaker 2: Stretches where you can tell Chris is like, hey, why
Speaker 2: am I not getting the ball more? Or Chris has
Speaker 2: the ball and you're like, hey, why isn't Dame involved
Speaker 2: in this sequence right now? There's still some stuff that
Speaker 2: they have to sort out on that front. And then
Speaker 2: there's just some bad vibes like this team is what
Speaker 2: twenty eight and twelve or twenty and thirteen, something like that.
Speaker 2: They have the third best record in the league, and
Speaker 2: they just have these lifeless efforts on some of these
Speaker 2: nights where you're like, what is going on with this team?
Speaker 2: Which is almost it's just weird to even imagine a
Speaker 2: team that's a bottom ten defense that has the third
Speaker 2: best record in basketball. Like, it almost doesn't even make sense. Now. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I like the idea of Quinton Grimes because I do
Speaker 2: think that he is a much much better point of
Speaker 2: attack defender than Malik Beasley, And if they get somebody
Speaker 2: like that, I think that could go a long way
Speaker 2: towards helping their issues. But I keep coming back to this,
Speaker 2: and this is my major concern. They're slow. Yeah, whenever
Speaker 2: Giannis isn't out there, they are a slow team. I
Speaker 2: don't know if either of you guys managed to catch
Speaker 2: that Calves game the other night, but like they got
Speaker 2: boat raced and they literally looked like they were stuck
Speaker 2: in the muddy. It literally looked like it looked like
Speaker 2: when I was in Juco and every once in a
Speaker 2: while at the beginning of the season, they'd schedule like
Speaker 2: a bunch of dudes in their thirties to come play
Speaker 2: in an exhibition game because they needed to fill thirty
Speaker 2: games on the schedule, and so we'd play like I
Speaker 2: remember we did this in Utah. We played like a
Speaker 2: team of a bunch of like dudes from like Salt
Speaker 2: Lake City who came down and played against us who
Speaker 2: were just like former college players, but we were just
Speaker 2: so much faster, you know what I mean. Like, that's
Speaker 2: literally what reminded me of watching that game. I'm like,
Speaker 2: holy crap, It's like they are just standing around. They
Speaker 2: look like shocked by the speed of the calves and
Speaker 2: they're just it down the other way in transition. Obviously,
Speaker 2: Jannis didn't play in that game, but that's the concern
Speaker 2: is outside of Jiannis, they just don't have a lot
Speaker 2: of team speed, all right. Moving on to number four
Speaker 2: on my list, a team that wasn't even on my
Speaker 2: contender list to start the season, the Los Angeles Clippers. Logan,
Speaker 2: are you higher or lower on the Clippers than you
Speaker 2: were to start the season.
Speaker 5: I'm much higher on the Clippers. I don't ever really
Speaker 5: buy into Clippers hype period. I mean, there's an organizational
Speaker 5: track record, there's an injury history with all of these guys.
Speaker 5: I was very, very very low on the Clippers heading
Speaker 5: into this season, and then obviously they make the James
Speaker 5: Harden deal, and I was pretty low on them after
Speaker 5: the Harden deal. I didn't really have high expectations, and
Speaker 5: I've been really impressed with James Harden, his commitment to
Speaker 5: playing a role and feeding these other guys, Like this
Speaker 5: stat kind of blew me away. Guys, He's got the
Speaker 5: highest plus minus of any Clipper over the last ten games,
Speaker 5: and that is even with while he's shooting fifteen points
Speaker 5: a game, pretty in a fit, shooting forty percent from
Speaker 5: the field thirty eight percent from deep over that time period. Like,
Speaker 5: he's just a valuable asset on the court, And I
Speaker 5: think there's a there's a better fit in La than
Speaker 5: in Philly. Obviously there's a lot of alleviated pressure off
Speaker 5: of his shoulders. He's no longer the number two guy.
Speaker 5: He can play the number three guy here. So I
Speaker 5: think Harden deserves a ton of credit for what he's done.
Speaker 5: And then I think the other guy that I think
Speaker 5: is an unsung hero of this Clippers team is Big Zoo,
Speaker 5: Like they just have such a great interior anchor here.
Speaker 5: He is a consistent play finisher. He's an awesome big
Speaker 5: body to have underneath the rack. And he's holding players
Speaker 5: twelve point four percent below their average field goal percentage
Speaker 5: inside six feet minimum six shots defended per game. That's
Speaker 5: the fourth best mark.
Speaker 1: In the NBA.
Speaker 5: On top of those two guys who deserve credit. I
Speaker 5: think there's really good depth here. Bones Man Powell, Westbrook,
Speaker 5: Plumbley Kawhi is playing out of his mind.
Speaker 1: I'm very high on the Clippers.
Speaker 5: The only concern that I have is the one that
Speaker 5: I mentioned at the top of this, and that is
Speaker 5: injury concerns come playoff time. I just don't know if
Speaker 5: these guys can be healthy. But if they're healthy, I
Speaker 5: think the.
Speaker 1: Clippers are a very very scary team to run into.
Speaker 1: They've been elite.
Speaker 5: Offensively, and then you just think about personnel wise and
Speaker 5: anchor like big Zoo on the inside, and they've got
Speaker 5: two big wing stoppers that they can throw at your
Speaker 5: two best perimeter offensive players. I like the Clippers a lot.
Speaker 5: I was not anticipating saying that at the start of
Speaker 5: the year. I am much much higher on LA.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm much higher on them as well, much higher
Speaker 3: than I was on them preseason, and much higher on
Speaker 3: them than I was at the moment that they made
Speaker 3: the hard and trade, which I thought was the right
Speaker 3: thing for them to do, because if they didn't do it,
Speaker 3: I was worried that they would just completely lose out
Speaker 3: on any sort of Kawhi PG window, and their priority
Speaker 3: is just clearly winning basketball. Steve Balmer is out there
Speaker 3: and his construction hat talking up the wall like they
Speaker 3: got the new arena. They need to win basketball games,
Speaker 3: and retaining Kawhi and PG was really the only way
Speaker 3: for them to do that. And adding a guy like
Speaker 3: James Harden, I think at least unlocked a ceiling or
Speaker 3: would unlock some optimism where it's okay, we can work
Speaker 3: with this now that we have this third star. But
Speaker 3: they have been legitimately great over these last thirty games.
Speaker 3: Now ever since that early skid with Harden their top
Speaker 3: three in offensive rating, and it's a very intuitive formula.
Speaker 3: They have elite shooting with multiple killer ball handlers, and
Speaker 3: Harden really has been an awesome fit. There's been two
Speaker 3: things over the years that I'm like, all right, the
Speaker 3: Clippers need offensively. One of them is a consistent rim pressure,
Speaker 3: which I still think this team is missing, and that's
Speaker 3: one of the concerns that I have about them, as
Speaker 3: good as they are, and a more intuitive lead playmaker.
Speaker 3: They've always relied very much on PG and Kawhi to
Speaker 3: create everything for this offense from the wings, and I've
Speaker 3: just felt like sort of what we've seen with Boston.
Speaker 3: The Clippers were always a better version of that, but
Speaker 3: it does help to have a guy who really can
Speaker 3: lean on for that decision, making that high end pick
Speaker 3: and roll feel setting people up, and Harden has done
Speaker 3: an awesome job of that, and he has just been
Speaker 3: brutalizing dudes with efficient scoring over the course of this
Speaker 3: season because now oftentimes he's getting team's third best perimeter
Speaker 3: defenders in isolation. There's just not a lot of dudes
Speaker 3: who can do anything with James Harden if you're the
Speaker 3: team's third best perimeter fender. And I do have the
Speaker 3: utmost faith in Kawhi. I think that there are some
Speaker 3: dudes who have made really strong cases this year, but
Speaker 3: Kawhi is probably still one of the five dudes who
Speaker 3: I want most over a playoff run if I know
Speaker 3: that he is healthy. I think that he has a
Speaker 3: legitimately unstoppable scoring formula because he is so great as
Speaker 3: a pull up shooter and because he can get to
Speaker 3: his spots at will, because he's strong enough out of isolation,
Speaker 3: out of the post to just work his way to
Speaker 3: that mid range area and consistently devastate you and like
Speaker 3: since he got to LA he has been spectacular and
Speaker 3: basically every single playoff run. And the other positive of
Speaker 3: the hard move is that you don't have to rely
Speaker 3: on like the Russ swing factor roller coaster as much
Speaker 3: as I would have expected before the year, because we saw.
Speaker 4: He had some good moments in the playoff run where
Speaker 4: they needed him.
Speaker 3: To step up, and he had some ugly moments and
Speaker 3: he always has and he always will. So I definitely
Speaker 3: feel much better. I do have some concerns. One is
Speaker 3: the rim pressure. As I'm me int, they have been
Speaker 3: better at it this year than ever before, but in
Speaker 3: previous playoff runs, and we've talked about this before, the
Speaker 3: Clippers have been so reliant on the three ball and
Speaker 3: on their pull up jump shooting, and that's just going
Speaker 3: to be a volidle experience. And consistently, in the series
Speaker 3: they've won, they have shot the lights out, and in
Speaker 3: the series they have lost, it's been because they haven't
Speaker 3: been able to consistently knock down those threes and they
Speaker 3: don't have enough other alternatives. They don't have enough consistent
Speaker 3: rim pressure. There's still twenty second in field goals made
Speaker 3: inside five feet this year. It's better it's not an
Speaker 3: ideal number. I'm still worried about James Harden regressing in
Speaker 3: the playoff. There's less of a scoring burden on him
Speaker 3: than ever before, which is great, but I still worry
Speaker 3: about his ability to consistently get to and finish around
Speaker 3: the rim when he's not getting foul calls in a
Speaker 3: more physical environment against playoff defenses. We saw last year
Speaker 3: he was brutal around the rim. He shot like thirty
Speaker 3: percent in the playoffs around the rim, and that led
Speaker 3: to this crazy volatility where yeah, if his step back
Speaker 3: threes were money, then he could go off, and he
Speaker 3: was utilizing the mid range more.
Speaker 4: But I'm still worry worried.
Speaker 3: About his game scaling as well as the postseason, because
Speaker 3: it really never has. I'm worried if this team can
Speaker 3: reach an elite two way ceiling. They're thirteenth in defensive
Speaker 3: rating over the last thirty. It's solid. It's not great, though,
Speaker 3: And when they have to match up against some of
Speaker 3: the huge teams out West, I don't think that they're
Speaker 3: like totally outclass there because they have Kawhi and PG
Speaker 3: who are bigger wings, and then they they're not like
Speaker 3: fours though they're kind of in this range where they're
Speaker 3: like big for threes and then Zoo can match up physically.
Speaker 3: But compared to like Denver, compared to Minnesota, they're not
Speaker 3: as huge in the front courts, So it's tough for
Speaker 3: me to bet on them against Denver. But overall, they're
Speaker 3: a really good basketball team and they're a real threat
Speaker 3: in a way that I didn't quite anticipate.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm much higher on the Clippers with well big shock.
Speaker 2: It's hard not to be when they want seventeen out
Speaker 2: of twenty games at one point. It's funny I kind
Speaker 2: of divide the NBA teams into like different archetypes for
Speaker 2: lack of a better word. To me, there's like the
Speaker 2: big classic traditional playoff teams, and this is your Denver,
Speaker 2: your Milwaukee, your Lakers, your Minnesota Timberwolves. These are the
Speaker 2: teams that I have massive front lines and they're big
Speaker 2: on like physical imposition on the game. And then there's
Speaker 2: like these perimeter oriented, driving, kick, pull up shooting, skill
Speaker 2: finesse teams. And to me, the best team in that
Speaker 2: group is the Celtics, but the second best team in
Speaker 2: that group is obviously the Clippers. I take them over
Speaker 2: the Thunder. I'd take them over the New Orleans Pelicans.
Speaker 2: I take them over the Phoenix Suns. Like those are
Speaker 2: all those teams, whether whether it's Brandon Ingram, or it's
Speaker 2: Shay Gildas Alexander or CJ. McCollum, or it's you know,
Speaker 2: Paul George, Kawhi, Leonard, all those guys, Like I just
Speaker 2: trust Paul George and Kawhi and James Harden and that
Speaker 2: group on both ends of the floor and more than
Speaker 2: I trust any of those other groups, not just from
Speaker 2: the same point of skill either, but in terms of experience.
Speaker 2: And Kawhi does bring a physical imposition on the game.
Speaker 2: It's kind of similar to with Boston, Like Boston's a
Speaker 2: little bit of both. Like Boston has this kind of
Speaker 2: skill approach, but Jason Tatum is just a huge person,
Speaker 2: and chrisops Zingis brings real rim protection and Drew Holliday
Speaker 2: brings a real perimeter strength element right even Jalen Brown
Speaker 2: as well. So like that archetype there in the Western Conference,
Speaker 2: at least the Clippers are the best version of that.
Speaker 2: I think the hard and fit piece you know, you
Speaker 2: brought up Russell Westbrook. Russell Westbrook has great highs and
Speaker 2: great lows, and it buys Tyleru just the ability to
Speaker 2: kind of like make a call like, Okay, tonight's not
Speaker 2: the night. We're leaning more on Terrence Man. Oh, this
Speaker 2: is good Russ' night. We're leaning more on Russ, like
Speaker 2: he can kind of make that call. And to the
Speaker 2: point that Logan made even in terms of wing stoppers,
Speaker 2: Terrence Man and Russell Westbrook in the playoffs last year
Speaker 2: kind of showed this as well. But having those guards
Speaker 2: that can take some of those high leverage point of
Speaker 2: attack assignments too, it puts all that length and athleticism
Speaker 2: off the ball, which can cause some problems too defense
Speaker 2: for offenses, when you have Kawhi and Paul George kind
Speaker 2: of ranging off the play with all their length and
Speaker 2: their IQ, James Harden to just setting people up with
Speaker 2: incredible spot up opportunities. The Clippers have been the best
Speaker 2: three point shooting team in the league this year. Norman
Speaker 2: Powell and Paul George have been two of the very
Speaker 2: best spot at players in the league at volume this year.
Speaker 2: Paul George is just getting It's like he's playing King
Speaker 2: of the court in a close out setup where like
Speaker 2: you have to throw the ball in like the from
Speaker 2: under the basket and close out to the three point
Speaker 2: line like he's just playing one on one with a
Speaker 2: huge advantage. He's been their best player over the last
Speaker 2: month too. Uh. The injury risk is a real thing, Yeah,
Speaker 2: but it's just not worth talking about because like one
Speaker 2: of two things.
Speaker 4: Is gonna happen.
Speaker 2: They're either they're gonna get there and they're gonna be
Speaker 2: hurt and we can write them off, or they're gonna
Speaker 2: get there and they're gonna be healthy, and we need
Speaker 2: to kind of conceptualize what it's gonna look like if
Speaker 2: they're healthy. And if they're healthy, it's gonna be Qui
Speaker 2: fighting to spots. It's gonna be James Harden setting them
Speaker 2: up for good opportunities. You're right, like, uh, James Harden
Speaker 2: is getting the third best perimeter defender instead of the second,
Speaker 2: instead of honestly the best, like in Philly he was
Speaker 2: getting the best perimeter defender. Right, So, like all of
Speaker 2: that stuff is worth bringing up, and I again, a
Speaker 2: lot has to go right for them. I'm major concerns.
Speaker 2: Are there a bad defensive rebounding team and they rely
Speaker 2: almost entirely, not almost entirely. But their bread and butters
Speaker 2: pull up jump shots, so like a lot of pull
Speaker 2: up jump shooting. They take the second most in the league.
Speaker 2: I think only the Dallas Mavericks take more if I
Speaker 2: remember correctly. And then they and then they don't defensive rebound,
Speaker 2: well those are two. And then they don't score a
Speaker 2: ton in the paint either. They're like seventeenth or eighteenth
Speaker 2: in points in the paint per game. So like those
Speaker 2: are like three historical markers that tell us that this
Speaker 2: kind of a team typically doesn't win the title. But
Speaker 2: how often do we have James hard and Paul George
Speaker 2: and Kawhi Leonard all on the same team in NBA
Speaker 2: history too, So I think that's worth mentioning. They're looking
Speaker 2: a lot more like what I expected the Suns to
Speaker 2: look like during the regular season, which is like outskilling teams,
Speaker 2: you know what I mean. So credit to the Los
Speaker 2: Angeles Clippers, all right. Number five, the Los Angeles Lakers, Carson,
Speaker 2: Are you higher or lower on the LA Lakers halfway
Speaker 2: through the season, I am lower.
Speaker 3: I had them as my second favorite out West coming
Speaker 3: into the year, definitely for below Denver. But I really
Speaker 3: believe in the combination of Ad and Lebron, and I
Speaker 3: thought they could reach a really high defensive ceiling.
Speaker 4: And I thought that they.
Speaker 3: Had improved the supporting cast and had introduced some more shooting,
Speaker 3: and things just haven't quite materialized as I hoped. The
Speaker 3: shooting hasn't been quite as good as I hoped. They're
Speaker 3: a twentieth percentile spot up team. They're not an awful
Speaker 3: shooting team, but I thought that they could be a
Speaker 3: little bit better. And I think I overestimated the value
Speaker 3: of some of the additions, Like I've always been a
Speaker 3: huge Christian Wood guy, and maybe I was unreasonably optimistic
Speaker 3: about what he could do. We still haven't really seen
Speaker 3: Gay Vincent, so it's tough to evaluate that, but I
Speaker 3: thought he would be a valuable guard depth piece. And
Speaker 3: I think that I overestimated the team defense here, and
Speaker 3: like we're talking about with Milwaukee, underestimated how much having
Speaker 3: issues at the point of attack would inhibit this team
Speaker 3: there because I've had so much faith in the back
Speaker 3: line defenders in both situations, but point of attack defense
Speaker 3: has been an issue for the Lakers that's caused them
Speaker 3: to go to these weird starting lips we've seen where
Speaker 3: they're trying to emphasize getting their athletes out there, the
Speaker 3: Cam Reddishes and the Van Dohs, and then utigate some
Speaker 3: of the offensive skill, and they just haven't really found
Speaker 3: the role players who can do both of the things
Speaker 3: that they need. Bring offensive skill and bring point of
Speaker 3: attack defense, and as we've talked about, I think that
Speaker 3: that's something that they need to find at the deadline.
Speaker 3: I also thought this team would rebound better. I thought
Speaker 3: they'd end possessions a little bit better, and they've actually
Speaker 3: been a good defensive rebounding team. It's more of been offensively,
Speaker 3: but just Torian being like the worst rebounding three in
Speaker 3: the NBA is not ideal. And then I've had more
Speaker 3: issues with Darvin Ham this year than previously. The rotational stuff,
Speaker 3: to me, has just been deeply concerning. And I think
Speaker 3: that the effort level every single night, Yeah, it's attributable
Speaker 3: to this being a team that's led by Lebron who's
Speaker 3: thirty nine years old, but I think that a coach
Speaker 3: still bears some responsibility in getting his dudes up to
Speaker 3: play every game. And nobody's been worse in terms of
Speaker 3: effort night tonight than the Lakers. So there are these
Speaker 3: little things, but nothing to me that is like, Oh,
Speaker 3: this team can't reach the ceiling that I anticipated if
Speaker 3: they make the right move at the deadline here, because
Speaker 3: eighty has been really good this year. But most importantly,
Speaker 3: Lebron has been much better than he was in the
Speaker 3: playoffs last year. He has still been one of the
Speaker 3: most dominant athletes in the league. His jump shot has
Speaker 3: returned like that to me is so significant and so encouraging.
Speaker 3: And I still do think this team defense will be
Speaker 3: better in the playoffs than now because they do have
Speaker 3: combinations they can go with. In terms of guys at
Speaker 3: the point of attack, they have the best defender on
Speaker 3: the planet.
Speaker 4: And then we'll see.
Speaker 3: We'll see if they bring in de Jonte Murray, which
Speaker 3: I know is strongly rumored. I don't think it necessarily
Speaker 3: has to be a guy who brings that sort of
Speaker 3: star label. And if Dejontay does come to LA I
Speaker 3: think that he's going to have to undergo a bit
Speaker 3: of an attitude change, because I haven't really liked how
Speaker 3: he's approached things in Atlanta as of late, and he's
Speaker 3: going to have to completely find his defensive identity again
Speaker 3: because he has the tools he was awesome in San Antonio.
Speaker 3: He has just lost it on that side of the
Speaker 3: ball in Atlanta. He's going to fit as I think
Speaker 3: Lakers fans hope, He's got to be the two way
Speaker 3: guy that he has the tools to be. So I'm
Speaker 3: not out on the Lakers, but again, until we actually
Speaker 3: see that they hit on that move and they address
Speaker 3: the issues that they have, Teams like the Clippers, teams
Speaker 3: like the Timberwolves are just playing much much better basketball
Speaker 3: right now.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I really agree with a lot of what you said, Carson,
Speaker 5: and I'm obviously completely lower on the Lakers than I.
Speaker 1: Was at the start of the season.
Speaker 5: I'm not only thought that they were going to figure
Speaker 5: it out as the season goes along, and they were
Speaker 5: my title favorite. I mean, I just thought that they
Speaker 5: were going to win a lot of games. I thought
Speaker 5: this team was going to gel together a lot more.
Speaker 5: The one encouraging thing is Lebron and Anthony Davis. Right,
Speaker 5: there was a huge variable, a huge concern coming into
Speaker 5: this season.
Speaker 1: But I mean, shout out a lot. It's more a said, guys,
Speaker 1: Isn't it ironic?
Speaker 5: I think we find ourselves right back in the exact
Speaker 5: same spot we were last year, the same old Lakers.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 1: I don't know what it is with these big brands.
Speaker 5: Man. You got the Dallas Cowboys choking in the playof again,
Speaker 5: you got the Los Angeles Lakers searching for an entire
Speaker 5: new roster. Guys, I mean literally top to bottom, all
Speaker 5: of these guys that I thought were gonna be home runs,
Speaker 5: that I thought were perfect fits. I shop everybody again.
Speaker 5: I mean d Low Tari and Prince Cam Reddish, Hachi Mura.
Speaker 5: I'm talking full on fire sale. I am shopping everyone.
Speaker 5: I am searching for whatever we can do. And sadly, guys,
Speaker 5: I don't think it's enough time. We talked about that
Speaker 5: precedent last year. It was going to be really hard
Speaker 5: for a team to basically completely overhaul their roster at
Speaker 5: the deadline and then figure it out. I find myself
Speaker 5: in the exact same situation this year. Even if they
Speaker 5: make all the moves, if they make the right acquisitions
Speaker 5: and I think it will fit together, I don't really
Speaker 5: think it's enough time for them to figure everything out.
Speaker 1: So again, like Carson said, I wouldn't completely count out
Speaker 1: this team.
Speaker 5: I would never completely count out a team with Anthony
Speaker 5: Davis and Lebron James, but I'm not betting on it.
Speaker 5: End I am much much lower on the Lakers than
Speaker 5: I was at the start of the season.
Speaker 2: There's a lot of positive Carson mentioned Lebron looks better
Speaker 2: than he did last year.
Speaker 4: He's having a little bit of a classic.
Speaker 2: Lebron January, which is I mean, I had heard rumblings
Speaker 2: behind the scene that he was like completely done with
Speaker 2: Darvin Ham and so I do think there was a
Speaker 2: little bit of passive aggressive Lebron going on. We even
Speaker 2: had that Brian Windhorse report. I said it to our
Speaker 2: mutual friend Logan, the one from Brian Windhorse where he
Speaker 2: was like, Lebron might not play for the Lakers next year,
Speaker 2: And I was like, this is classic Lebron, right, Like,
Speaker 2: this is hell, this is this is exactly what I
Speaker 2: expect to see from him right around this time. Here,
Speaker 2: this is his this is his June of this is
Speaker 2: leg GM's June right here, this is where it all
Speaker 2: goes down, right, But like I think it so Anthony
Speaker 2: Davis's shot making is it where it was in the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty bubble. But I think this is the best
Speaker 2: Anthony Davis has ever played. I think the I think
Speaker 2: the playmaking and just the overall offensive folkrum stuff is
Speaker 2: at such a higher level than it's ever been. Whereas
Speaker 2: Anthony Davis, if you remember in that twenty twenty season,
Speaker 2: he'd have some really bad halves where like if his
Speaker 2: jumper was falling, he wouldn't look particularly good. I think
Speaker 2: the all around element of Anthony Davis right now is
Speaker 2: the best it's ever been. Austin Reeves is making strides
Speaker 2: as a shot creator, there's been. It's funny Lakers fans
Speaker 2: like they oscillate back and forth between Delo and Austin
Speaker 2: based on who's having a good game in a bad game.
Speaker 2: It's like Dlos had a couple of good games that
Speaker 2: are on everyone's like, don't trade Dlo. Trade Austin. He's
Speaker 2: the best player. It's like, next thing, you know, d
Speaker 2: Lo will be bad for two weeks and everybody like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 2: that's right, Austin's better. That's how it goes. But like
Speaker 2: as Austin, in my opinion, is like making strides. He's
Speaker 2: one of only eleven players in the league this year
Speaker 2: to run at least five hundred pick and rolls that
Speaker 2: have amounted to at least one point per possession, he's
Speaker 2: at one point zero eight points per isolation possession. Then
Speaker 2: he can have games like he did against the Mavericks
Speaker 2: where he's primarily off the ball and he's just this
Speaker 2: awesome connector who can you know, attack closeouts and make
Speaker 2: that extra pass. I think I think there's so much
Speaker 2: positive there, but I'm still lower on the Lakers just
Speaker 2: because of the bad vibes. Like Carson you mentioned, they've been.
Speaker 2: You said, arguably, I think they're the worst effort and
Speaker 2: energy team in the league right now. They like even
Speaker 2: this recent stretch, it's like they beat the Clippers, they
Speaker 2: beat the Thunder, they beat the MAVs, they beat the
Speaker 2: Toronto Raptors. There is an absolute egg in there against
Speaker 2: the Phoenix Suns where they just came out at home
Speaker 2: and didn't play hard, like from the opening tip. They
Speaker 2: just got slacked, you know what I mean. So like
Speaker 2: NBA history tells us that kind of team doesn't win
Speaker 2: the title. Now here's the thing, a lot of time
Speaker 2: left they I think the big indicator for me is
Speaker 2: going to be can they go on like a I
Speaker 2: said this on my show the other day, Like can
Speaker 2: they have a run like they did after the trade
Speaker 2: deadline last year where they go eighteen and eight or
Speaker 2: seventeen and nine or nineteen and seven, where it's like
Speaker 2: a clear indicator of we are now going to establish
Speaker 2: the habits that we did not establish to start the season.
Speaker 2: And last thing on the Lakers front, it's really to
Speaker 2: me like when you start to start like thinking about
Speaker 2: the matchups because Lebron really is the major culprit in
Speaker 2: the Laker defense since the nd season Tournament is Lebron.
Speaker 2: I was literally watching the MAVs game the other night
Speaker 2: and Eric Lively gets three baskets right under the basket
Speaker 2: like two dunks in a layup in the first three
Speaker 2: in the first four or five possessions for the MAVs.
Speaker 2: All three of them were plays where Lebron as the lowman,
Speaker 2: could have blown them up, and he was like, nah,
Speaker 2: I'll just get the next of them. He just went
Speaker 2: down the floor. So like here's the thing, like let
Speaker 2: just do let's just do this exercise. So the Minnesota
Speaker 2: Timberroles have been one of the worst half court offenses
Speaker 2: in the league this year, and I'm really concerned about
Speaker 2: their ability to score in a half court against a
Speaker 2: really good defense. When we get into the playoffs. If
Speaker 2: a playoff series started tomorrow and the Lakers were healthy,
Speaker 2: and you knew you were getting a fully engaged Lebron
Speaker 2: James and Anthony Davis, even if they didn't make a trade. Like,
Speaker 2: I know the record says Minnesota is playing way better basketball,
Speaker 2: but like, I'm tempted to take the Lakers in that
Speaker 2: series even before trade. I'll just ask you guys, real quick, Carson,
Speaker 2: would you take the Lakers of the Wolves? Series starts tomorrow,
Speaker 2: the Lakers are healthy, You're getting engaged Lebron.
Speaker 4: I think I would take the Ta Wolves.
Speaker 3: And the one real quick point that I will make
Speaker 3: is the tee Wolves have not been a good overall offense,
Speaker 3: but they actually have been seventy third percentile in half
Speaker 3: court efficiency, and I do kind of like them a
Speaker 3: bit more in that grind it down, super physical environment.
Speaker 3: They have a big time shot maker from the perimeter.
Speaker 3: They have a mismatch attacker and Kat, they have a
Speaker 3: veteran point guard and Conley. That with the elite defensive ceiling,
Speaker 3: the fact that they match up in terms of size.
Speaker 4: I think I would go Minnesota. I also would Logan.
Speaker 5: I also would go Minnesota, and I have a different
Speaker 5: level of faith in this Minnesota half court offense than
Speaker 5: I did at the beginning of the year. I love
Speaker 5: Mike Conley. I adore Mike Congley. He is like the
Speaker 5: perfect point guard man. He's awesome. I just I trust
Speaker 5: his veteran leadership in presence. I trust Anthony Edwards being
Speaker 5: consistently great in a playoff run, and I trust everybody
Speaker 5: around him. I have loved the ball movement in Minnesota.
Speaker 5: I'm watching Rudy Gobayer hit passes out of the short role.
Speaker 5: I'm watching Nasreed dot guys up. I'm watching Karl Anthony
Speaker 5: Towns make good pass is. Like, I really believe in
Speaker 5: the offensive chemistry in Minnesota. And it's not to completely
Speaker 5: disregard your point, Jason, I think that is the biggest concern.
Speaker 5: This team's gonna be rock solid defensively against who they
Speaker 5: go up against. It is going to be about generating
Speaker 5: points in the half court. But considering the Lakers waning
Speaker 5: effort night to night, considering the Lakers role players struggles. Yeah,
Speaker 5: I just have a different level of faith in Minnesota,
Speaker 5: and I believe in this offense. I think that I
Speaker 5: just think they work. I just think they jail way
Speaker 5: better together, and I believe in them. I genuinely buy
Speaker 5: into Minnesota as a real contender of.
Speaker 2: Corson where did you get that half court offense stat?
Speaker 2: Because I've been looking at Cleaning the Glass. I have
Speaker 2: them below one hundred points per one hundred possessions, and
Speaker 2: they've been consistently a bottom half half court offense all season,
Speaker 2: So I'm just wondering where you've got that number.
Speaker 3: Synergy has them at one point oh one six points
Speaker 3: for possession in the half court seventy three.
Speaker 2: Okay, So it's uh so, maybe that's because Synergy doesn't
Speaker 2: filter out garbage time. That's probably the difference clean cleaning
Speaker 2: the glass filter thout garbage tep either way. So you
Speaker 2: guys disagree with me on Minnesota. I believe that if
Speaker 2: the Lakers played Minnesota tomorrow, that's an older, more, uh
Speaker 2: more kind of experienced playoff team. Anthony Davis eats Rudy
Speaker 2: Gobert's lunch every time they play like That's that's a
Speaker 2: very important element that I don't think it's brought up
Speaker 2: enough in this particular conversation. And I would personally pick
Speaker 2: the Lakers, but let's let's you guys, take Minnesota. Let's
Speaker 2: go to the next one. Would you take Oklahoma City
Speaker 2: or the Lakers if they started a series tomorrow.
Speaker 4: I would take the Lakers.
Speaker 3: And I do want to be clear, it's still close
Speaker 3: for me on Minnesota because I really believe in Austin
Speaker 3: Reeves and Ad and Lebron. Picking against them terrifies me
Speaker 3: unless I believe the team has like overwhelming advantages. When
Speaker 3: it comes to okay See, I think they are awesome.
Speaker 3: I just think there's a different level of physical imposition
Speaker 3: that LA can unleash upon them that Minnesota is much
Speaker 3: better equipped to handle because they're huge in the front court,
Speaker 3: They've got veteran dues. Okay See is young, they're slight,
Speaker 3: and so even if they have more perimeter skill and
Speaker 3: they have some awesome dudes, I just think that that
Speaker 3: physicality factor and having two of the three best players
Speaker 3: on the floor by a decent margin, I would still
Speaker 3: go with the Lakers there.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would definitely take LA in that matchup, just
Speaker 5: because of the physical and athletic advantages that I think
Speaker 5: they could.
Speaker 1: I think they could body okay See on the interior.
Speaker 5: Although that being said, man, there's a different level of
Speaker 5: faith with me in thinking that, Okay, see's gonna play hard.
Speaker 4: I really can't get on the playoff series.
Speaker 3: I think the Lakers would play hard too. I mean,
Speaker 3: maybe not every night like last road games. Yeah, the
Speaker 3: Lakers road games in the Memphis road. Yeah, in the
Speaker 3: Memphis series.
Speaker 5: I mean it was like two or three games where
Speaker 5: I'm like, damn, man, like, did you guys even show up?
Speaker 2: But they put when they're up, that's the thing. Like
Speaker 2: they put when it's like it's like, oh, we got
Speaker 2: a three to one lead, I don't want to win
Speaker 2: game five.
Speaker 4: Win game six, you know what I mean? Dude, Lebron
Speaker 4: has mastered the art of coasting.
Speaker 3: Like he is meticulous and very selective about when he punts,
Speaker 3: and it very rarely actually costs them in the playoffs
Speaker 3: because he's so deliberate about that.
Speaker 2: Okay, so rapid fire. Would you take the Lakers of
Speaker 2: the Suns if a series started tomorrow?
Speaker 4: Lakers?
Speaker 1: La?
Speaker 2: Would you take the Lakers or the Kings of a
Speaker 2: series started tomorrow?
Speaker 1: Oh man, it's.
Speaker 4: Okay.
Speaker 2: Would you take the Lakers or the Pelicans if a
Speaker 2: series started tomorrow?
Speaker 4: Lakers?
Speaker 2: Okay? So you see the point I'm trying to make here.
Speaker 2: So all of that, by the way, all these questions
Speaker 2: were in situations where the Lakers don't make a trade, okay,
Speaker 2: and they have a trade to make because they have
Speaker 2: some roster imbalances. So my point is is, like, I'm
Speaker 2: lower on the Lakers because of basketball character stuff. But
Speaker 2: the reality is is this team is going to march
Speaker 2: out in all likelihood Lebron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reeves
Speaker 2: and trade return from the deadline, likely involving a first
Speaker 2: round pick, and they've got players that they include for
Speaker 2: and you know this team when they make the those moves,
Speaker 2: they come back from the deadline, they're gonna lock in
Speaker 2: and they're gonna try to establish some stuff. That doesn't
Speaker 2: mean they're gonna beat Denver or Boston. But I do
Speaker 2: think there's been a lot of like like people overlooking
Speaker 2: classic Lebron January team trends, and I think I do
Speaker 2: think even though I'm lower on the Lakers than I
Speaker 2: was before the season in terms of I would have
Speaker 2: much rather had them just attack the regular season, I
Speaker 2: still think people writing them off are are being silly
Speaker 2: because and then again, it's last thing I'll say about it.
Speaker 2: Let's just look at the Timberwolves. Like both of you
Speaker 2: guys picked the Timberwolves by some small margin. They haven't
Speaker 2: gotten out of the first round yet, Guys like this
Speaker 2: is not a team that has been through wars. They
Speaker 2: just haven't. So like that, And that's not to say
Speaker 2: you write them off. I'm just saying, like that's a
Speaker 2: huge advantage in my opinion, Like just NBA history tells us.
Speaker 2: It's like, that's what allows a Warriors team that's on
Speaker 2: the way out, like a Warriors team that was about
Speaker 2: to crack to beat the Sacramento King even though they
Speaker 2: were on the road and didn't have home court advantage, Like,
Speaker 2: that's just what happens. Is it's the older it's the experience,
Speaker 2: it's the best player in the series. The Lakers would
Speaker 2: have the best player in the series. The Lakers would
Speaker 2: be older and more experienced. They would pack the paint,
Speaker 2: they would dare teams to there guys to shoot. I
Speaker 2: do think that that would be an interesting series. All right,
Speaker 2: So now that we're outside of the top five, I
Speaker 2: want to pick up the pace a little bit. Well,
Speaker 2: we're gonna move on to number six. The Philadelphia seventy
Speaker 2: six ers logan. Are you higher or lower on the
Speaker 2: Philadelphia seventy six ers as a contender than you were
Speaker 2: before the season.
Speaker 5: I am much higher on them. One thing that this
Speaker 5: has to do with is the James Harden trade. I
Speaker 5: was anticipating being lower on Philadelphia. I thought they needed
Speaker 5: James Harden. I've now changed my stance on that. I
Speaker 5: think that Philadelphia in some ways is better without Harden.
Speaker 5: I think it has allowed a faster, more up tempo
Speaker 5: team that just plays better in transition. I think it
Speaker 5: has allowed Tyrese Maxi to grow as a playmaker and
Speaker 5: as a lead ball handler, and.
Speaker 1: Everything just feels a lot more opened up.
Speaker 5: Like I love James Harden, and I love what he's
Speaker 5: doing in LA, but some possessions where you know, he's
Speaker 5: taking a couple extra dribbles or he's not moving the
Speaker 5: ball within the flow of the offense, I don't think
Speaker 5: they have those issues as much. There's not as much
Speaker 5: ball stopping. And then defensively, I really like Philadelphia one
Speaker 5: Embiid on the interior has been one of the best
Speaker 5: rim protectors in basketball. But I really like the personnel
Speaker 5: that they can throw at teams. You know, Max, He's
Speaker 5: not a max. He's not a great defender, but he
Speaker 5: tries right, he gives effort. I like the Anthony Melton,
Speaker 5: I like Patrick Beverlee's point of attack guys. They've got
Speaker 5: some size and athleticism on the wings. I legitimately buy
Speaker 5: Philly as a contender now. Obviously the biggest issue is
Speaker 5: Embiid and if he's going to have these same woes
Speaker 5: that have plagued him in the playoffs. But I've seen
Speaker 5: legitimately growth from Embiid as a playmaker. I think he's
Speaker 5: playing more selfless team basketball. He's looking for other shots,
Speaker 5: and that's a big factor to me. Is I just
Speaker 5: don't think Embiid is going to disappear as the way
Speaker 5: we've seen him in years previous. It could be easier
Speaker 5: said than done. It could happen again. I'm not anticipating
Speaker 5: it this year. And because of that, legitimately, by the
Speaker 5: seventy six ers as contenders, I'm much higher on Philadelphia.
Speaker 4: I'm much higher on them too.
Speaker 3: I felt pretty strongly this is a team that would
Speaker 3: win fifty games in the regular season, just because Embiide
Speaker 3: is that sort of regular season force. And I have
Speaker 3: always been a Tyreeks Maxi guy, and I thought that
Speaker 3: he could fill those shoes as an offensive number two
Speaker 3: and play really well. But I was not high on
Speaker 3: their postseason outlook, and I still don't like them in
Speaker 3: a series against Boston or Milwaukee. But I definitely like
Speaker 3: them more than I did coming.
Speaker 4: Into the year.
Speaker 3: Em Beiid is clearly better. He is the best as
Speaker 3: a shot maker that we've seen him. Last year was
Speaker 3: really good, I would argue this year has been even
Speaker 3: more consistently brilliant. I saw a tweet today from NBA
Speaker 3: University that he leads the league in shots made from
Speaker 3: fifteen to nineteen feet and leads the league in field
Speaker 3: goal percentage from that range. He has just been devastating.
Speaker 3: And as a playmaker hasn't just been better dissecting doubles
Speaker 3: and whatnot. He's been more involved across the board as
Speaker 3: a ball handler, has been more proactive just in his
Speaker 3: efforts to find and set up teammates. And there's two
Speaker 3: things that have consistently failed him in the playoffs, but
Speaker 3: actually there's four. There's his jump shot failing him. There's
Speaker 3: his playmaking failing him where teams double him and he
Speaker 3: turns the ball over more than he assists his teammates,
Speaker 3: there's his health failing him, and there's his reliance on
Speaker 3: getting the line. So in the first two categories, he
Speaker 3: looks better now than ever before. The playoffs is a
Speaker 3: different arena, but I have more faith than him because
Speaker 3: of that. MAXI is much better than last year and
Speaker 3: is making the most of this opportunity. And then I
Speaker 3: think Nick Nurse is a real coaching upgrade. And I
Speaker 3: think that they nailed a couple of additions on the
Speaker 3: wings with Ubre and with Batoum, who is still such
Speaker 3: a winning basketball player. And I undersold the value that
Speaker 3: he had for them when they got him in the
Speaker 3: hard and trade. I think that that has been a
Speaker 3: little bit of a hidden gem. So they're playing awesome.
Speaker 3: I definitely like them more.
Speaker 2: So I'm higher on the sixers. The big thing that
Speaker 2: stood out to me was Tyre Smaxy being kind of
Speaker 2: somewhat of a question mark coming into the season. Would
Speaker 2: he be able to step into this much larger role.
Speaker 2: He's just straight up kicked ass like it's been it's been.
Speaker 2: I think if you were to put together a spectrum
Speaker 2: of all the different ways that the Max he as
Speaker 2: the number one perimeter option could have gone. It could
Speaker 2: not have gone better than it's gone to this point
Speaker 2: in the season. He's one of the best shooters in
Speaker 2: the league while also being one of the fastest players
Speaker 2: in the league, which is just a deadly combination. He's
Speaker 2: starting to figure out too, just like all the same
Speaker 2: timing stuff in terms of getting Embiid into his spots
Speaker 2: that James Harden had. Embiad's just insanely good the jump shot.
Speaker 2: It's weird because like he's making a lot more of
Speaker 2: his like face up jab step jump shots, but he's
Speaker 2: missing a lot more of his off the dribble jump
Speaker 2: shots that he missed that he made last year, right,
Speaker 2: So like it's weird because like the actual jump shot
Speaker 2: numbers are about where they were last year. It just
Speaker 2: looks different and it will be curious to see if
Speaker 2: you can make them when they get to the postseason.
Speaker 2: I was think Darryl Morridge has nailed the James Harden trade,
Speaker 2: got a really useful player back, and Nicholas Batoum Marcus
Speaker 2: Morris has been able to play and make some impact
Speaker 2: and small doses, but most importantly, they got draft compensation back,
Speaker 2: So I think they're in a position where they can
Speaker 2: make an additional move. This is one of my sneaky
Speaker 2: teams that I'd love to see get a Dejontay Murray
Speaker 2: because when I imagine a lineup where the perimeter speed
Speaker 2: of a Tobias Harris Nick Batoum type of three four
Speaker 2: is not quite as impactful, I love the idea of
Speaker 2: getting a Dejontay Murray to kind of be basically a
Speaker 2: better version of what d'An Anthony Melton is for them.
Speaker 2: The other thing with Dejontay Murray is he brings yet
Speaker 2: another dribble drive guy that can keep the defense in
Speaker 2: rotation for a team that when Dejontey would have the
Speaker 2: ball would be surrounded by Embiid who's been a deadly
Speaker 2: catch and shoot three point shooter this year, Maxi, who's
Speaker 2: a deadly catch and shoot three point shooter. Nick Patum
Speaker 2: was a deadly catch and shoot three point shooter. Like
Speaker 2: That's where I really like that kind of fit. That's
Speaker 2: the type of guy that I'd be keeping an eye
Speaker 2: on for Philly. I have them down at six because
Speaker 2: I just think in a playoff series, Tyrese Maxie is
Speaker 2: your number one perimeter option. In his first ever playoff
Speaker 2: run in that type of role could be in for
Speaker 2: some growing pains, just like you know, I had a
Speaker 2: mail back question in my show that I did today
Speaker 2: where people were, like, somebody asked about Tyrese Haliburton. It's like,
Speaker 2: I think Tyris Alburton is a transcendently great player. I
Speaker 2: don't think he's gonna go into the postseason and just
Speaker 2: kick everybody's.
Speaker 4: Ass right away. Like it takes time.
Speaker 2: You gotta like that environment is very much is like
Speaker 2: a growing Pains type of environment. But like if they
Speaker 2: hit the deadline, the Sixers are like one of those
Speaker 2: teams where if they make the right type of trade,
Speaker 2: I'd put him up with Boston and with it with Denver.
Speaker 2: That's how good I think Joel Embiid can be when
Speaker 2: he gets to the postseason. It's just can't he get
Speaker 2: their healthy and can he make his jump shot when
Speaker 2: he gets there and beat strikes me as one of
Speaker 2: those guys too that like when he breaks through, he's
Speaker 2: gonna shatter through and like suddenly it's gonna be like
Speaker 2: he just it's gonna be like like someone in the
Speaker 2: YouTube comments said, like Dirk, like a Dirk esque playoff run.
Speaker 2: That's kind of the way I look at it, where
Speaker 2: it's like he just has this reputation of being a
Speaker 2: playoff underperformer, and then when it goes right, he's just
Speaker 2: too good to not break through. Eventually, it's just gonna
Speaker 2: be a question of when, Yeah, all right, number seven,
Speaker 2: we're got to start with you, Carson the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Speaker 2: So are you higher or lower than you were in
Speaker 2: the Minnesota Timberwolves before the start of the season.
Speaker 3: I am much higher, And I came into this season
Speaker 3: with some optimism, just thinking, all right fully healthy, can
Speaker 3: they figure out the offensive fit a little bit more
Speaker 3: with the two bigs? Can they defend at a very
Speaker 3: high level? But then early in the year, I was like,
Speaker 3: I still think it's too clunky. I just don't think
Speaker 3: offensively they can reach the ceiling that they need to.
Speaker 3: But as the ear has gone on, I think the
Speaker 3: cat has gotten more comfortable. I think that he's also
Speaker 3: just improved as a shot maker, and I think we
Speaker 3: have seen that this is a truly dominant defense. In
Speaker 3: the regular season, it has been by far the best
Speaker 3: defense in the league. Gobert has returned to his peak
Speaker 3: level defensively, and he's doing that with by far the
Speaker 3: best defensive supporting castid he's ever had. Awesome dudes at
Speaker 3: the point of attack. Daniels is elite. Ant is really
Speaker 3: good when he wants to be, and Kat is doing
Speaker 3: so much more than we've ever seen him do defensively.
Speaker 3: He has committed so much more to that into the
Speaker 3: floor as a secondary rim protector. We know the value
Speaker 3: he can have guarding big bodies and post up scenarios,
Speaker 3: allowing Gobar to be a roamer in those playoff settings,
Speaker 3: and I think that that has been valuable. I didn't
Speaker 3: expect them to be this great defensively, even if I
Speaker 3: thought that would be the strength of this team. And
Speaker 3: then I think Ant has taken a couple mini leaps
Speaker 3: which I expected into But I think his playmaking is
Speaker 3: a bit better. I think we've seen him lean on
Speaker 3: that intermediate shot making a bit more, which has always
Speaker 3: been the weakness in his game.
Speaker 4: He's always been.
Speaker 3: Insane ninety ninth percentile athlete getting to the rim, and
Speaker 3: he's been hot and cold as a pull up shooter
Speaker 3: from deep, but has consistently improved there and has had
Speaker 3: really hot stretches. The thing has just been a lack
Speaker 3: of touch in terms of floaters and not really having
Speaker 3: any sort of mid range game, and his efficiency has.
Speaker 4: Gone down in those areas.
Speaker 3: He got off to the ear a really good start,
Speaker 3: and he was really good for Team USA in the offseason,
Speaker 3: so I thought maybe he'd take a bit more of
Speaker 3: a leap there. But he's still more comfortable, I would say,
Speaker 3: at least with this super versatile all around attack. And
Speaker 3: I really do like the supporting cast. I really like Conley,
Speaker 3: I really like McDaniels, I really like Kyle Anderson and
Speaker 3: Ozried off the bench.
Speaker 4: They're big, they're physical.
Speaker 3: They're not experienced on the level of Ad and Lebron,
Speaker 3: but most of their dudes have been in those playoff
Speaker 3: environments before and I do think that that matters. So
Speaker 3: this was not a team but that I first saw
Speaker 3: having a Western Conference Finals kind of ceiling, and now
Speaker 3: I absolutely absolutely think that they do.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I totally concur Heading into the season, I said
Speaker 5: the Rudy Gobert trade was the worst in NBA history, and.
Speaker 1: I was completely wrong on that.
Speaker 5: I thought that this is going to be a complete
Speaker 5: disaster with the draft capital that they gave up, and
Speaker 5: I thought it wasn't ever going to work, and I
Speaker 5: was wrong. A lot of it has to do with
Speaker 5: the time that this team is put into is I agree.
Speaker 5: I think this is the best defense in basketball. I
Speaker 5: think it is going to hold up during the playoff run.
Speaker 5: And then offensively, I buy in. Like I mentioned, it's
Speaker 5: Gobeer hitting guys out of the short role. Now it's
Speaker 5: Aunt not being afraid to use his guys, like taking
Speaker 5: a pump fake at the top of the key. He
Speaker 5: feeds another guy and then cuts to the basket and
Speaker 5: they feed it right back to him. Like the team
Speaker 5: just knows how to play with each other. I love
Speaker 5: the ball movement during a Minnesota game like it's a
Speaker 5: It's an offense that I believe in in the playoffs.
Speaker 5: I just think they work together, and they've played together
Speaker 5: long enough that it's they have real chemistry that I
Speaker 5: buy into. I'm much much higher on the Timberwolves, and
Speaker 5: I wholeheartedly buy into them as a Western Conference finals
Speaker 5: and potentially finals contender. Like Carson, I know you've said
Speaker 5: this on our show before too. It would take a
Speaker 5: lot in a hypothetical series against Denver, but I think
Speaker 5: they match up against Denver better than anybody else out West.
Speaker 2: So I want to be clear, I am much higher
Speaker 2: on the Timberwolves than I was to start the season.
Speaker 2: I've been on the Timberwolves for a while, pretty much
Speaker 2: since the end of last season. I've just loved the
Speaker 2: idea of aunt Jaden and Rudy as just unbelievable combination
Speaker 2: of like two just straight jackets on the perimeter and
Speaker 2: then a dude that, oh, you happen to beat them
Speaker 2: off the dribble. Well, here's one of the best rim
Speaker 2: protectors in NBA history waiting for you. On the backside.
Speaker 2: Andy Edwards is taking a leap his last eighteen games,
Speaker 2: He's like twenty nine points per game on like forty
Speaker 2: nine percent from the field and thirty nine percent from three.
Speaker 2: That's over a stretch where they played almost exclusively good teams.
Speaker 2: The defense is insane and is legitimate. Like, we watched
Speaker 2: their defense against all good opponents over the last month
Speaker 2: and a half or so, and they've been excellent in
Speaker 2: all of those games. When I say that, like I
Speaker 2: have a certain pessimism around the Minnesota Timberwolves in the postseason,
Speaker 2: it really is this simple. Their three main offensive weapons
Speaker 2: are Carltowns, Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards. Carl Towns is
Speaker 2: a historically inconsistent playoff performer, like great, one game, awful
Speaker 2: the next. Mike Conley is a old skill guard. As
Speaker 2: the point of attack physicality peak picks up. Slower skill
Speaker 2: guards tend to struggle a little bit. And Anthony Edwards
Speaker 2: is young and like once again, like we've talked about
Speaker 2: so many times on this even just with the three
Speaker 2: of us, it's just it's growing paints. How often do
Speaker 2: you see a dude in his early twenties like kick
Speaker 2: everybody's asking go all the way, like maybe he's Kevin Durant,
Speaker 2: But that's Kevin Durant. He's one of the ten greatest
Speaker 2: basketball players to ever play the game, at least in
Speaker 2: terms of the perimeter in modern NBA history. Right, So
Speaker 2: the point being, like I just have question marks about
Speaker 2: like the long term, like winning four playoff series type
Speaker 2: of environment. Because here's the thing, like Ant has shot
Speaker 2: really well with this pull up jump shot as of late,
Speaker 2: and he shot really well in the postseason into one
Speaker 2: series samples Ant's biggest One of the things that happens
Speaker 2: in the postseason is everything becomes geared around your star's weakness.
Speaker 2: It's no different than Joel Embiid how every single postseason
Speaker 2: he gets more turnovers than assists as teams just throw
Speaker 2: the kitchen sink at him and test his passing ability.
Speaker 2: That's that's what I expect teams to do to Ant
Speaker 2: in the postseason. There's this kind of concept with Ant
Speaker 2: where it's like, oh, you play off of him and
Speaker 2: you pray he misses. I could see teams going like, no,
Speaker 2: we're pressing up on you and we're packing the paint,
Speaker 2: and we're going to test you as a playmaker. Let's
Speaker 2: see if Let's see if you're disciplined enough for a
Speaker 2: seven game series to consistently make the right read. And oh,
Speaker 2: by the way, we're going to close out short on
Speaker 2: Jada McDaniels because he's got a.
Speaker 4: Little bit of a slower release.
Speaker 2: And you know, Mike Conley, we're going to bully his
Speaker 2: legs until he's tired and old. And you know, Carl Towns,
Speaker 2: you know, can be inconsistent offensively in the postseason. So like,
Speaker 2: that's where I think things could get a little ugly
Speaker 2: for them, is just they have their primary three offensive
Speaker 2: players are three guys that are all three of them
Speaker 2: are guys that have some sort of playoff question mark
Speaker 2: surrounding them in some way, shape or form. So that's
Speaker 2: why I have him as low as I have them.
Speaker 2: But the defense is real and they are going to
Speaker 2: bully some teams physically. It just more comes down to
Speaker 2: that half court, slow down environment and whether or not
Speaker 2: Anthony Edwards can go toe to toe with the very
Speaker 2: best players in the league and beat the in a
Speaker 2: playoff series, and NBA history tells us the dude in
Speaker 2: his early twenties typically does not. But I love the
Speaker 2: Timberwolves long term. I would give them like they feel
Speaker 2: like one of those teams that, like two years from now,
Speaker 2: is just going to be a perennial top tier contender.
Speaker 2: So like I feel about Minnesota the way I feel
Speaker 2: about Oklahoma City, I viewed them as like an upcoming
Speaker 2: staple in the league for half a decade. I'm just
Speaker 2: saying in this singular season, they strike me as one
Speaker 2: of those teams that's overachieving a bit in the regular
Speaker 2: season and that will run into some roadblocks when they
Speaker 2: get to the postseason, which is super common for a
Speaker 2: team that's anchored by a young superstar and that has
Speaker 2: a certain amount of like athletic verve that they can
Speaker 2: rely on for the eighty two. Moving on to number eight,
Speaker 2: the Phoenix Suns logan, you're up first. Are you higher
Speaker 2: or lower on the Phoenix Suns than you were to
Speaker 2: start the season.
Speaker 5: I'm a little lower on the Sungs just because I
Speaker 5: did have pretty high expectations for them coming into this year.
Speaker 5: I thought that they would dominate the regular season. Honestly, Jason,
Speaker 5: I thought you summed it up really well with the
Speaker 5: Clippers talk like that's that was what I expected out
Speaker 5: of Phoenix, for them to just dominate skill wise. No,
Speaker 5: obviously takes a while for everybody get healthy, Brad be Okad.
Speaker 5: What we've seen with the Big three I think is encouraging,
Speaker 5: like they are gonna be able to do that in
Speaker 5: a hypothetical series that is terrifying to get matched up
Speaker 5: against where they could just drop one twenty to one
Speaker 5: thirty on your head and steal a couple of games.
Speaker 5: It obviously comes down to the role players, right, And
Speaker 5: I'm not really moved enough yet to really say that
Speaker 5: I'm more confident in Phoenix. I was confident coming into
Speaker 5: this year with the role players. I though that they
Speaker 5: did the best job that they could in filling out
Speaker 5: the roster, and they're still just concerns like who is
Speaker 5: going to take They don't feel that far away to me,
Speaker 5: I guess, is what I'm saying. But all of their
Speaker 5: role players are so one dimensional. If it's Grace and Allen,
Speaker 5: if it's Josha Koge, whoever you point to. They are
Speaker 5: really good on one side of the ball, but their lackluster.
Speaker 1: They just need more two way guys.
Speaker 5: I'm not out on the Suns, but I had really
Speaker 5: really high expectations for them in the regular season that
Speaker 5: haven't been met, and so now I'm just left with
Speaker 5: injury and depth concerns, which is kind of what I
Speaker 5: were my red flags at the start of the year.
Speaker 5: So I'm not out on Phoenix by any means. They
Speaker 5: are much too talented to count out, but I just
Speaker 5: haven't seen enough of it for me to be really
Speaker 5: deeply moved by Phoenix.
Speaker 3: I'm a little bit lower on Phoenix, even though at
Speaker 3: full strength, I would say they've looked pretty similar to
Speaker 3: what I expected, because other teams have shown me more
Speaker 3: because I have been really impressed by Minnesota and ok
Speaker 3: seeing certainly the Clippers, I do think that their offense
Speaker 3: is really good. And when the big three has been
Speaker 3: out there together, it's a small sample size, only one
Speaker 3: hundred and seventy five minutes, but they have an offensive
Speaker 3: rating of one hundred and twenty four.
Speaker 4: That's pretty damn good.
Speaker 3: And you just don't see teams who have three shot
Speaker 3: makers of this level, three ball handlers who are this devastating.
Speaker 3: And when you pair that with the spot up shooting
Speaker 3: that we've seen from Grayson Allen who has barely missed
Speaker 3: all year, and Eric Gordon like that's a scary offensive combination.
Speaker 3: The problem for me is the same thing that has
Speaker 3: been obvious since they put together this core. They are
Speaker 3: a low volume three point shooting team. They are very
Speaker 3: accurate there, but they're twenty third and threes made, which
Speaker 3: means they're not as inclined to go on those sprees
Speaker 3: like you might see from Boston. And at the same time,
Speaker 3: they're twenty eighth in field goals made inside of five feet.
Speaker 3: So when you are lacking in both high end rim
Speaker 3: pressure and you are lacking in consistent, dynamic volume three
Speaker 3: point shooting, you can have three of the most skilled
Speaker 3: mid range shot makers in the league, but at the
Speaker 3: end of the day, you're trading tough twos when other
Speaker 3: teams are getting easier twos or they're getting good looks
Speaker 3: from three. So for a team that is so offensively slanted,
Speaker 3: that just scares me. That scares me when you're comparing
Speaker 3: it to the formula Denver has where it's elite shooting
Speaker 3: and elite paint force, even the formula that the Clippers
Speaker 3: have because they have more elite three point shooting. Because defensively,
Speaker 3: this team can only be so good, like they've rebounded
Speaker 3: well this year, they just have fundamental limitations there. They're
Speaker 3: sixteenth in defensive rating. And when you have core lineups
Speaker 3: that involve Beal and Allen and Nurk out there, I
Speaker 3: just think you can only climb so high. I think
Speaker 3: we did see an interesting look with Katie at the five.
Speaker 3: I think that'll be fun for specific matchups. It kind
Speaker 3: of gave fits to the Kings. I thought that was
Speaker 3: a bit embarrassing for Sabonis, like they looked quicker. Defensively,
Speaker 3: they doubled, they rotated well, and offensively it was awesome.
Speaker 4: It was super spread out.
Speaker 3: They had skill everywhere against some of like the really
Speaker 3: big teams who will punish them for going small like that.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 3: How viable it is for extended stretches. I think it
Speaker 3: can be a weapon. I don't think it's a fix
Speaker 3: to some of the limitations they have. So this team
Speaker 3: looks a lot like I expected, but I'm a little
Speaker 3: bit lower on them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm lower as well, just because again I thought
Speaker 2: they'd look like I put in my notes. I thought
Speaker 2: that looked like the twenty twenty two nets, Like that's
Speaker 2: just what I expect that I expect them just to
Speaker 2: rack up the wins. I do want to give him
Speaker 2: some slack in the sense that the Bradley Beald, Devin Booker,
Speaker 2: Kevin Durant combo hasn't had that much time to work together.
Speaker 2: The KD at the five stuff is interesting because I
Speaker 2: agree with you, Carson, I think it's very matchup specific
Speaker 2: and I think it's a short doses thing because it
Speaker 2: depended on two things. One, Kevin Durant playing some of
Speaker 2: the best defense that you've seen from him in the
Speaker 2: last five years, Like just he was so incredible defensively
Speaker 2: down the stretch of that game. And then two, there
Speaker 2: were multiple examples where Sabonis had smaller defenders on him
Speaker 2: and just didn't even look at the basket. But that's
Speaker 2: kind of like one of the advantages of that type
Speaker 2: of lineup is it's a curve ball, it's an off
Speaker 2: speed pitch. It's one it's one you throw to disrupt
Speaker 2: the rhythm of the game and then you bail out
Speaker 2: of it quickly, or if there is a matchup where
Speaker 2: you have some advantage, you could stick with it. But
Speaker 2: like I use the death lineup as an example, not
Speaker 2: because I think it's as good as the death lineup.
Speaker 2: That's the greatest lineup that's ever touched a basketball court,
Speaker 2: especially when you had Kevin Durant into that mix. But
Speaker 2: it was never used to start games. It was ever
Speaker 2: used as like there. I mean they used it to
Speaker 2: I think they occasionally started Andrey Guadala in the playoffs
Speaker 2: before KD got there, But like for the most part,
Speaker 2: it was a counter that Golden State used in short
Speaker 2: doses to screw up a basketball game and then to
Speaker 2: close basketball games. So that's kind of the way I
Speaker 2: see it. But again, like you said it perfectly, Carson,
Speaker 2: NBA history tells us teams that rely on pull up
Speaker 2: jump shooting and don't get easy shots around the basket
Speaker 2: that that also aren't great on defense typically don't win,
Speaker 2: and so that doesn't mean the Suns can't win. But
Speaker 2: through forty games or forty one games through half the season,
Speaker 2: I certainly am lower on them than I was before
Speaker 2: the season because I was expecting more. All Right, we
Speaker 2: have three more before we get out of here today,
Speaker 2: Starting with you, Carson, Oklahoma City Thunder, you higher or
Speaker 2: lower on the Oklahoma City Thunder than you were to
Speaker 2: start the season.
Speaker 3: I am definitely higher, and I would be higher on
Speaker 3: them than a team like the Suns because I think, yeah,
Speaker 3: there's obviously the playoff experience factor and the fact that
Speaker 3: the Suns have Katie Booken Beal, but I think that
Speaker 3: SGA could easily be the.
Speaker 4: Best player in that series.
Speaker 3: I think that he is a dominant force, and I
Speaker 3: think that the supporting Cats and OKSE is excellent. I
Speaker 3: have been a big Jalen Williams guy. Oh my goodness,
Speaker 3: though he is so good the tear that he is
Speaker 3: on this month, I think they've played ten games. He
Speaker 3: shot like sixty five percent from the field, sixty percent
Speaker 3: from deep, while he's giving you twenty one points six
Speaker 3: as sists a game just a problem athletically a good playmaker,
Speaker 3: a really good shooter, and I think that chet At
Speaker 3: another guy mentioned here in terms of dynamic play finisher,
Speaker 3: really good three point shooter, Stretch Big, another guy who
Speaker 3: you trust to handle a bit, to playmake and then
Speaker 3: defensively is an awesome Rimp protector. The limitation they have
Speaker 3: is a experience does matter. I think that they're good
Speaker 3: enough to where they could win a first round series
Speaker 3: just based off of talent, but making a run of
Speaker 3: the finals is like another conversation. And be they are
Speaker 3: so slight in the front court. They're one of the
Speaker 3: weakest rebounding teams in the league. Chet is an elite
Speaker 3: rimp protector. He is not a very good rebounding five.
Speaker 3: And the other dudes around him, like they have athletic wings,
Speaker 3: they just don't have big physical wings. And so I
Speaker 3: think that as well as they may defend all around,
Speaker 3: that's going to put a bit of a ceiling on them.
Speaker 3: But I love the Thunder. I thought they would take
Speaker 3: Elape this year to be like a forty eight win team,
Speaker 3: a really tough first round out. Maybe they sneak a
Speaker 3: first round series, and I think that they are clearly
Speaker 3: ahead of schedule, and the future is insanely bright because
Speaker 3: I mentioned the Big three, But like I love Keson Wallace,
Speaker 3: I think that they can move Josh Giddy, and I
Speaker 3: think that he has started to recuperate his value a
Speaker 3: bit because he's been playing better. He didn't look like
Speaker 3: an NBA player for like a month and a half
Speaker 3: this year. So the future is crazy bright, but they're
Speaker 3: just not quite there. Really is a matter of youth.
Speaker 5: Largely, I wholeheartedly agree with Carson. I'm much higher on
Speaker 5: the thunder coming in. I want to give a massive
Speaker 5: shout out to chet Holmgren for what he's done on
Speaker 5: the interior, defending completely transforming the inside of his defense,
Speaker 5: and just for the effort that okay see gives night
Speaker 5: to night. I do want to ask you, Jason, if
Speaker 5: you have any ideas. I know we've talked about this periodically.
Speaker 5: I mean, is there a move you guys think they
Speaker 5: should explore at the deadline to accelerate this timeline.
Speaker 2: I still lean towards Lori market and would be the
Speaker 2: one that I'd be looking at, But if Laurie is unavailable,
Speaker 2: I'd hang tight, Like I don't think Jeremy Grant's that guy.
Speaker 4: I don't think DeAndre Hunter is that guy. I don't think.
Speaker 2: I don't think there's like a obvious guy that they
Speaker 2: should Like Carson mentioned this, and this is the truth,
Speaker 2: the truth, Like we were all higher on the Thunder,
Speaker 2: and we were already high on the thunder before the season,
Speaker 2: like I was with Carson. I thought they'd be right
Speaker 2: in the mix, and instead they're like better than most
Speaker 2: most of the teams. Like that's that's where it's been again.
Speaker 2: Like I want to be clear, I put Minnesota in
Speaker 2: Oklahoma City together. Minnesota's further along on that path. Like
Speaker 2: to be clear, Minnesota is further along on that path,
Speaker 2: but Oklahoma City's on the same path. And what I
Speaker 2: mean by that is like they're both on like a
Speaker 2: freight train towards like bona fide year in, year out
Speaker 2: championship contention led by a bonafide superstar. I think SGA
Speaker 2: and both are like legitimate superstars.
Speaker 4: I just don't.
Speaker 2: Necessarily see unless unless they feel like throwing the Godfather
Speaker 2: off or at market in, I just don't see the
Speaker 2: point of rushing that process simply because of the fact
Speaker 2: that they're not gonna win it this year. They're just
Speaker 2: they're just not being too small. They're they're way too small.
Speaker 2: They're not gonna win it this year. That's not to
Speaker 2: say it can't, but it's like their chances are extremely
Speaker 2: slim on that front. Not only are they're young and
Speaker 2: they're small, those are two. That's like, that's a that's
Speaker 2: a that's a death sentence in the in the NBA
Speaker 2: playoffs in my opinion. So like, the other thing too,
Speaker 2: is you could argue even on the market in front,
Speaker 2: like and I'll just pitch this one back to you guys, like,
Speaker 2: wouldn't they be better off looking for more of a
Speaker 2: dirty work for Like, wouldn't they be better off looking
Speaker 2: for like the next Aaron Gordon?
Speaker 3: Probably, but it would be tough for me to pass
Speaker 3: on marking him to some extent. I just think that
Speaker 3: he's such an awesome fit offensively, he's so good first
Speaker 3: of all, and I don't think that you're going to
Speaker 3: be able to pry him away from Utah right now.
Speaker 3: That's a team that has won fifteen of their last
Speaker 3: twenty one. They almost beat the Thunder last night. Will
Speaker 3: Hardy is an amazing coach.
Speaker 2: But that's January basketball. Carson, that's a young thing. Oh
Speaker 2: the overall stretch. Yes, absolutely, that's a young, fast team
Speaker 2: in January. That's so classic.
Speaker 4: Totally agree.
Speaker 3: I want to be clear, I don't think that the
Speaker 3: Jazz make the playoffs this year. If they did, I
Speaker 3: think they get boat raced. I think when you look
Speaker 3: at the top eleven teams in the West, there are
Speaker 3: ten teams that are more talented than the Utah Jazz
Speaker 3: pretty clearly.
Speaker 4: But Lowry is that dude. He's amazing. I could talk
Speaker 4: about him to no end. But yeah, what if I
Speaker 4: offer you six picks?
Speaker 3: I mean, if you give me six picks, and if
Speaker 3: you give me like Cason Wallace, because you got to
Speaker 3: make the contracts. It's easy to match contracts with Lowry
Speaker 3: because he makes eighteen million dollars a year.
Speaker 4: Is the other thing. Yeah, I would do that if
Speaker 4: I were the Jazz, So I why not?
Speaker 2: And why not give yourself an additional playoff run to
Speaker 2: build chemistry and battle scars with that group?
Speaker 4: I would, I would.
Speaker 3: I would absolutely be all in on Lowry if I
Speaker 3: were the Thunder. But I also agree with you. If
Speaker 3: there were an equally good player in the archetype of
Speaker 3: an Aaron Gordon, where it's like, hey, this is a
Speaker 3: dude who can defend the post at a really high level.
Speaker 3: Lowry's a really good rebounder, but he's certainly progressed defensively.
Speaker 3: He's just not going to be a legitimate plus there.
Speaker 3: But if you can get Lowry, I get Lowry, because
Speaker 3: I think Lowry is probably a top twenty five player
Speaker 3: in the league. He might be the most underrated star
Speaker 3: in basketball. He is just a hyper efficient, crazy, versatile
Speaker 3: offensive weapon who doesn't need the ball, who does ad size,
Speaker 3: who is not slight like, he's strong, he's physical.
Speaker 4: I would love that for them.
Speaker 5: I think it's a home un go ahead logan. I mean,
Speaker 5: I just think that's a home run. I would do
Speaker 5: that in a heartbeat, Like it addresses everything, the size,
Speaker 5: the spacing, screw defense at that point, let's just go
Speaker 5: score one hundred and thirty five points a game.
Speaker 3: Man. Well, you still think it would make their defense
Speaker 3: a little bit better because you would at least have
Speaker 3: another big body and plus rebounder on the interior. But
Speaker 3: it wouldn't really move the needle there.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 2: Well, the other thing too, is you don't need speed
Speaker 2: out of that four spot.
Speaker 4: You need verticality.
Speaker 2: You need someone that can help in low man situations,
Speaker 2: like cleaning up messes when Chet leaves his feet, cleaning
Speaker 2: up the defensive glass.
Speaker 4: Like that's where that's.
Speaker 2: The case for marketing In is Like Aaron Gordon is
Speaker 2: one of the most important perimeter defenders for Denver because
Speaker 2: of all the big wings in the West. Like he's
Speaker 2: the guy who guards Kawhi, He's the guy who guards
Speaker 2: Lebron James. Like that, that's why they need Aaron Gordon.
Speaker 2: But like for Oka, see it's like that's lou Dort.
Speaker 2: Like lou Dort's taking that assignment so they can kind
Speaker 2: of like use so they can actually use market In
Speaker 2: as more of a low man.
Speaker 4: All right, we got two more before we get out
Speaker 4: of here. Number ten.
Speaker 2: The Miami Heat logan higher or lower the Miami Heat
Speaker 2: than you were to start the season.
Speaker 5: I am very high on the Miami Heat. I thought
Speaker 5: that I thought with their losses in this offseason that
Speaker 5: they were going to fall off a little bit. Now
Speaker 5: I say fall off. How much can the Miami Heat
Speaker 5: ever really fall off in a regular season? You got
Speaker 5: a rock solid culture and identity with Eric Spolster, with
Speaker 5: Jimmy Butler with bam Adebayo, the team is always going
Speaker 5: to win forty games, they're always going to be in
Speaker 5: the playoff picture, and they're always going to be looming.
Speaker 1: The two guys that have.
Speaker 5: Swung this for me are Jimei Hawk as junior and
Speaker 5: Nicola Jovich. You know, I was critical of both picks
Speaker 5: at the time. Yovic because he didn't crack the lineup
Speaker 5: in his rookie year really, and then Jimi Haks I
Speaker 5: just got wrong. I mean, I just thought that triple
Speaker 5: j was not I thought he was a really good
Speaker 5: college player, and I thought that it wasn't going to
Speaker 5: fully translate, like he'd be good at doing a lot
Speaker 5: of little things, but I didn't think he'd be great anywhere,
Speaker 5: and I didn't his athleticism didn't pop enough for me.
Speaker 5: The guy's just a baller, Like there's just guys that
Speaker 5: you watch that just get it. And he can do
Speaker 5: everything at every level. Mid range, on the low block,
Speaker 5: from the perimeter, he can handle, he can set you screens,
Speaker 5: he can defend, he crashes the glass. He's an athlete,
Speaker 5: like he's just a ballplayer. I want him, you know
Speaker 5: what I mean, I just want him he is a
Speaker 5: rock solid role player. And then Jovich, Oh my gosh, man,
Speaker 5: same thing. He can shoot, he moves the ball like
Speaker 5: he doesn't the ball doesn't stick on his hands.
Speaker 1: He can handle, He's an athlete. He can defend.
Speaker 5: You know, we can take for granted because I always
Speaker 5: think in the draft it's like, oh, we're looking to
Speaker 5: hit this home run. You know, you want the star
Speaker 5: guard that's going to go fill up and go get buckets.
Speaker 5: So I want the big man that is going to
Speaker 5: dominate the interior. Sometimes you just get the good players
Speaker 5: that are going to fit in the rotation and give
Speaker 5: you a great twenty five a night. Both of those
Speaker 5: guys are going to give you a great twenty five
Speaker 5: to thirty a night. And I think that's a real
Speaker 5: difference maker in a playoff series from Miami. And not
Speaker 5: only that, I think they are legitimate upgrades from the
Speaker 5: role players that Miami has had that have overachieved in
Speaker 5: years previous. I think that they're better than those guys.
Speaker 5: I'm much much higher on the Miami Heat, and it
Speaker 5: comes down to those two young wings.
Speaker 3: I am also higher on the Heat. I don't know
Speaker 3: if I'm quite as high on Yovich as you are.
Speaker 3: I do like his feel offensively, I like his skill.
Speaker 3: Not sure I would really describe him as an athlete,
Speaker 3: and I'm not sure the level that he's defending at.
Speaker 3: Like I think that he definitely plays with effort, but
Speaker 3: I just think there are some limitations there.
Speaker 4: Hawks is awesome, though I sold him short too.
Speaker 3: I thought that they needed to add like a more
Speaker 3: legitimately big guy in the front court who they could
Speaker 3: play alongside band because I felt that that lack of
Speaker 3: size was so consistently exposed. But he's just an awesome
Speaker 3: due at all wing and so skilled, so versatile. So
Speaker 3: I'm higher on them, And also when you look at
Speaker 3: the overall cast of wings, it's not just those two
Speaker 3: who are definitely positives. Duncan Robinson what could have been
Speaker 3: seen as like a fairy tale run in the playoffs,
Speaker 3: his resurgence is real. He is legitimately more comfortable as
Speaker 3: a ball handler, He is legitimately or comfortable as a playmaker.
Speaker 4: And I think then you add KYLEB.
Speaker 3: Martin, who is still good Josh Richardson, like, it's just
Speaker 3: a better wing rotation than last year, and they have
Speaker 3: dealt with injuries to everybody and I mean, everybody, Heroes
Speaker 3: missed half the year, Jimmy's missed what like fifteen games,
Speaker 3: Bams missed ten games, and there's still seven games above
Speaker 3: five hundred. So I think if that's a testament to
Speaker 3: the fact that this is a more talented overall basketball team.
Speaker 3: That being said, would I expect them to have more
Speaker 3: success than last year, which I guess would mean winning
Speaker 3: the NBA title. No, And I wouldn't expect them to
Speaker 3: replicate last year's success because so many outlier things had
Speaker 3: to go in their way.
Speaker 4: In saying, shooting.
Speaker 3: A really masterful exploitation of opposing team's weaknesses that I
Speaker 3: don't think is necessarily replicable at that level. Again, Jimmy
Speaker 3: being like a top five dude on the planet for
Speaker 3: a couple rounds. That was a pretty remarkable heat run.
Speaker 3: But how I felt about them knowing all that, looking
Speaker 3: at their roster coming into this year, I think that
Speaker 3: I am higher on them now.
Speaker 4: Yep, I'm higher as well.
Speaker 2: Did you guys know Hoime hawkas junior is the second
Speaker 2: best post up player in the league minimum of fifty
Speaker 2: reps this year.
Speaker 3: So awesome, And that's one thing, just really quick, Logan
Speaker 3: said the thing about him being like such a college bucket.
Speaker 3: That's like how I felt. I was like, Okay, this
Speaker 3: dude doesn't have like a crazy first step. He's not
Speaker 3: a volume of fishing three point shooter. He's cooking dudes
Speaker 3: with his post game at six seven, and it's just
Speaker 3: like stuff you don't really see in the league. But
Speaker 3: he's so good at it that it translates.
Speaker 2: That like that, like wing that's strong but maybe not
Speaker 2: as tall is almost becoming one of the more underrated
Speaker 2: positions in the league because the league has gone so
Speaker 2: heavy into the tall, skinny wing and we're just seeing
Speaker 2: like that lower center of gravity is just so good
Speaker 2: in the bullyball elements of the game. I love what
Speaker 2: you said about Duncan Robinson. I think both Duncan Robinson
Speaker 2: and Tyler Harrow have just gotten way better at weaponizing
Speaker 2: their shooting ability to make plays for other people. Jimmy
Speaker 2: Butler has been out this like this entire stretch and
Speaker 2: they're still like a serious basketball team. Bam at a
Speaker 2: Bios shooting forty five percent a pull of jump shots
Speaker 2: this year. That's a huge upside in my opinion, and
Speaker 2: they have a trade to make, and you know, They're
Speaker 2: another one of those teams like Philly where if they
Speaker 2: hit a home run at the trade deadline and bring
Speaker 2: in some sort of legitimate secondary shot creator just because
Speaker 2: I you know, I'd prefer Tyler harro On Duncan Robinson
Speaker 2: as like second side guys they can figure that piece out,
Speaker 2: like another dude who can like actually legitimately take over
Speaker 2: the offense and give Jimmy a break in a playoff setting,
Speaker 2: because I still am not necessarily sure Bam is ready
Speaker 2: for that. If they get that, that's where they could
Speaker 2: get into that really serious level. All Right, we have
Speaker 2: one last team before we get out of here for today,
Speaker 2: number eleven, and I I will never give up faith
Speaker 2: in the Golden State Warriors as long as Steph Curry
Speaker 2: is on the roster. I also think they're dealing with
Speaker 2: a whole lot of a classic like kind of like
Speaker 2: what the Lakers did last year, where it's like this
Speaker 2: team is just just want so badly to fast forward
Speaker 2: until after the deadline, Like you can just tell that's
Speaker 2: what's happening. And I fully expect them to re engage
Speaker 2: at that point, but it's been ugly to this point.
Speaker 2: Two games out of the plane Golden State Warriors. Carson,
Speaker 2: are you lower or higher on them than you were
Speaker 2: to start the season.
Speaker 3: I am significantly lower. I was optimistic about this scene
Speaker 3: because I thought that they made some awesome moves.
Speaker 4: In terms of adding death.
Speaker 3: I really loved the draft with Pods and especially TJD
Speaker 3: is a value pick.
Speaker 4: I mean, pots has.
Speaker 3: Ended up clearly being the better of the two, the
Speaker 3: more valuable of the two, but I thought getting TJD
Speaker 3: at fifty seven was insane. I liked what Chris Paul
Speaker 3: did for the second unit. I really liked Sarish, and
Speaker 3: I felt that if the starting lineup could sustain their level,
Speaker 3: then that just meant that this would be a better
Speaker 3: team than last year, when they still won a.
Speaker 4: Round in the playoffs.
Speaker 3: But despite some of the wings that some of the
Speaker 3: wins that they have taken, like the fact that I've
Speaker 3: actually loved the depth pieces, there have just been far
Speaker 3: more losses. I did not expect Andrew Wiggins to fall
Speaker 3: off a cliff and reach the point where it's like, yeah,
Speaker 3: we'll start any combination of our young wings over him.
Speaker 3: Looney and Clay have both had underwhelming seasons, and this
Speaker 3: team just hasn't defended at the level that we're used to.
Speaker 3: Even with Draymond out there, they've been twenty fifth in
Speaker 3: defensive rating, and I think what has to some extent
Speaker 3: sealed their fate. And I can't say this with finality
Speaker 3: because we haven't reached the deadline yet, but missing out
Speaker 3: on Siakam hurts, especially because you're calling kaminga untouchable, which
Speaker 3: I get Jonathan kaminga is good. But this is what
Speaker 3: we've talked about before and what I think has been
Speaker 3: a gripe of many Warriors fans. The two timeline thing
Speaker 3: is a fantasy, and it has been conclusively proven as
Speaker 3: a fantasy because here you are now, when a couple
Speaker 3: of years ago, you could have made a move for
Speaker 3: a Siakam or any number of guys if you were
Speaker 3: willing to move these picks that just didn't materialize as
Speaker 3: valuable for this window.
Speaker 4: None of those dudes played in final. None of those
Speaker 4: dudes played. Dudes played in the finals, none.
Speaker 3: Of them literally literally, and James Wiseman was, you know,
Speaker 3: your crown prince.
Speaker 4: So it just doesn't happen. You don't sustain multiple.
Speaker 3: Windows at the same time on an NBA team, and
Speaker 3: when you have Steph Curry and he is still a
Speaker 3: superstar level player. I would be doing everything that I can,
Speaker 3: even if you think it's a crazy long shot at
Speaker 3: a title, which to me, it would still be a
Speaker 3: real long shot. If they did bring a Sakham or
Speaker 3: a market and who I think it's going to be
Speaker 3: really tough to move for. I would still do it
Speaker 3: just to be a legitimately good, competitive basketball team that
Speaker 3: can make a Western Conference Finals run, because future be
Speaker 3: damn dude, it's Steph Curry. He's the best player in
Speaker 3: your Stanchfist history and you kind of owe that to him.
Speaker 3: And I think if they've squandered that opportunity again, not
Speaker 3: for sure, but it certainly looks that way, and that
Speaker 3: to me seals their fate. They're too small, they're not
Speaker 3: defending at the same level.
Speaker 4: With the lack of a real high end.
Speaker 3: Second option alongside Steph kind of seals their fate. And
Speaker 3: they haven't addressed those issues. So I am comcretely lower
Speaker 3: on them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, said Carson. I thought Golden State.
Speaker 5: I just have the utmost faith in Golden State as
Speaker 5: a franchise, and there was an organization like I considered
Speaker 5: them as a real title contender heading into this season.
Speaker 5: I don't really feel the same way now. In January, guys,
Speaker 5: they are seventh in offensive rating, which is encouraging, right,
Speaker 5: They're dead last in defensive rating. They have a defensive
Speaker 5: rating of one to twenty seven in the month of January.
Speaker 5: That's an eight game sample size.
Speaker 1: It's like, that's gross.
Speaker 5: Wiggins can't figure it out. You got the Draymond Green,
Speaker 5: Draymond Green drama. You got Stephen Curry frustrated, the deadlines
Speaker 5: up in the air, and like Carson said, they're straddling timelines,
Speaker 5: like it seems like they're championship hopes are really sinking fast.
Speaker 1: I'm Jason, like you said, man, I.
Speaker 5: Don't know if I could ever count out the Warriors
Speaker 5: with Steph Curry on the roster.
Speaker 1: But I'm closer than I've ever been before.
Speaker 4: So I'm lower as well. I don't know how you
Speaker 4: could be higher.
Speaker 2: I like, if there's a Warriors fan out there, leave
Speaker 2: it in the comments, break it down for I want
Speaker 2: to hear the case. Yeah, but like, yeah, no, there's
Speaker 2: like the Pods thing is like anytime you hit on
Speaker 2: a draft pick like that, like that's that's obviously super encouraging.
Speaker 2: But here's the thing. First of all, the Andrew Wiggins thing,
Speaker 2: He's just never been able to get back on track.
Speaker 2: You know, Sam's Fondiari, who's come on the show before,
Speaker 2: his friend of mine. He said this on Twitter the
Speaker 2: other day, and I thought it was really interesting. He goes,
Speaker 2: why do we keep looking at this as a decline?
Speaker 2: Zoom out on Wiggins's career for a second. That's the outlier.
Speaker 2: With exception of twenty twenty two when he was one
Speaker 2: of the best three and D guys in the league,
Speaker 2: he's been mostly this and then a version of him
Speaker 2: on the Wolves where he put up good stats on
Speaker 2: a bad team, right, and even though stats weren't overly efficient, right,
Speaker 2: So like he just put a volume scoring numbers. So like,
Speaker 2: maybe Wiggins is this and it was this transcendently outlier
Speaker 2: performance in twenty twenty two that pushed him over the top.
Speaker 2: That's the first piece of it. Steph is not playing
Speaker 2: particularly well now. I want to cut him some slack
Speaker 2: because I do think there's a little bit of like,
Speaker 2: I don't think he.
Speaker 4: Believes that this team can win.
Speaker 2: I mean, Steve Kurt straight up came out and said that,
Speaker 2: like he thinks the team has lost belief, and I
Speaker 2: think that's an important part of this.
Speaker 4: The here's the silver lining.
Speaker 2: Technically, because of Draymond removing himself from the team and
Speaker 2: then being injured at the start of the season, they
Speaker 2: really haven't played with Stephan Draymond that much this year.
Speaker 2: So that's the one piece of it. And then two,
Speaker 2: even though they missed out on Siakam and obviously I
Speaker 2: agree with you, Carson, I think that was that was
Speaker 2: What that was is like the last nail in the
Speaker 2: coffin was there and somebody hit it with the hammer
Speaker 2: once and the nail is like very close, yeah, and
Speaker 2: it's like there's still just a little bit of a
Speaker 2: gap for you to maybe like kind of get the
Speaker 2: the wedge end of the hammer in there and then
Speaker 2: pull the nail out. But they're gonna have to nail
Speaker 2: the deadline. And so before we get out of here,
Speaker 2: I pitched this on my show the other day and
Speaker 2: I just wanted to kind of hear both of your guys'
Speaker 2: take on it, and we'll start with you, Carson. Let's
Speaker 2: say that Golden State calls up Brooklyn and they offer
Speaker 2: Andrew Wiggins, Moses Moody Jonathan Kaminga, and they ask for
Speaker 2: Michale Bridges and Dorian Finney Smith. First of all, I
Speaker 2: want to I expect, let's go around like this. First,
Speaker 2: do the nets say yes?
Speaker 3: I mean, I think that that would be robbery if
Speaker 3: the Warriors got the Nets to accept that. I don't
Speaker 3: think like if we just go asset to asset, Jonathan
Speaker 3: Kaminga to me is very unlikely to ever be as
Speaker 3: good as Mcalbridge is right now.
Speaker 4: Maybe I should.
Speaker 3: Okay, maybe very unlikely as strong I would say unlikely.
Speaker 3: I think the Kaminga has a special combination of athletic traits.
Speaker 3: You do not see dudes who blend quickness with strength
Speaker 3: with just elite vertical ability like him. But I think
Speaker 3: that in a lot of the peripheral skill elements of
Speaker 3: his game, we're still looking at a dude who's pretty raw.
Speaker 3: He's been really good this year. He's been a lot better.
Speaker 3: But mcaal fits so seamlessly into winning basketball with what
Speaker 3: we know he looks like when he's engaged defensively, elite there,
Speaker 3: elite three point shooters, super smart cutter and dfs. He's
Speaker 3: not too valuable to Brooklyn right now. Really he would
Speaker 3: be great for the Warriors. But I don't look at
Speaker 3: any of those assets and think that they're enough to
Speaker 3: move Brooklyn off of mcal moody. I really like, but
Speaker 3: he's a like pretty low ceiling three and D wing.
Speaker 3: If the Warriors got that, I mean, that would fundamentally
Speaker 3: change my outlook.
Speaker 4: Then I would say, I mean, yeah, that's we'll get.
Speaker 2: Just focus on the Nets for now.
Speaker 4: I don't think the Nets would take that.
Speaker 2: Okay, what about you, Logan Mike.
Speaker 1: My bad guys.
Speaker 5: I honestly don't think Jason's that far off with this deal.
Speaker 5: KAMINGA to me is still a very, very valuable asset
Speaker 5: for the future. Like, I just think about this timeline wise,
Speaker 5: that would be my pitch to Brooklyn. Your timeline is
Speaker 5: not right now. You're not winning anything. Part cam Thomas
Speaker 5: up with a young Wing. I think he's got a
Speaker 5: lot of value. Like, I still think mcal bridge is
Speaker 5: the best player in the deal, but you're getting Wiggins too.
Speaker 5: My only issue is that the fact that the Brooklyn
Speaker 5: netsis well, give me.
Speaker 1: A second here.
Speaker 5: That's the one thing that I have is that the
Speaker 5: Brooklyn Nets would have Andrew Wiggins and Ben Simmons, and
Speaker 5: just considering that Ben Simmons hasn't played, Wiggins has struggled,
Speaker 5: you just have two really big negative assets on big
Speaker 5: contracts that would be pretty hard.
Speaker 1: To move at this point. Uh.
Speaker 5: I honestly think value wise though, I don't think Jason's
Speaker 5: that far off with this deal.
Speaker 2: So here's the take for why the Nets should consider it.
Speaker 2: Mckail Bridges is twenty seven years old, Cam Johnson twenty
Speaker 2: seven years old, Spencer Dinwoody thirty years old, Dorian Finney
Speaker 2: Smith thirty years old. This is not the Utah Jazz.
Speaker 2: This is not a young, fun team with a bunch
Speaker 2: of upside. These guys are who they are. Mikale Bridges
Speaker 2: is not a star. He is an outstanding role player,
Speaker 2: one of the very best role players in the league.
Speaker 2: He can score the basketball a little bit. But if
Speaker 2: you make him your primary creator, you're not gonna win
Speaker 2: money many basketball games. Yep, that's the reality. Jonathan Kmming,
Speaker 2: in my opinion, does have star upside. That would be
Speaker 2: the case, And specifically, I have this belief system like
Speaker 2: you always should be trying to get your number one guy.
Speaker 2: You got to be trying to get the best guy
Speaker 2: one of those guys that's in that list of ten
Speaker 2: dudes that you can win a championship with. There's no
Speaker 2: reason to just be holding on to a bunch of
Speaker 2: eight twenties role players. Yeah, that everyone else in the
Speaker 2: league could use way more than you while you're a
Speaker 2: bad basketball team of significantly below average basketball team. Now,
Speaker 2: I would be one hundred percent with you if it
Speaker 2: was like McHale's twenty three, right, and we think this
Speaker 2: dude by age twenty seven can be one of the
Speaker 2: top twenty dudes in the league. But that's not what
Speaker 2: this is. So that's where I kind of kind of
Speaker 2: see the case. I'd be looking at it as like,
Speaker 2: I'm getting Moses Moody, who is a young dude who
Speaker 2: could become a great role player in this league. And
Speaker 2: I've got Johnathan Kaminga who could become potentially one of
Speaker 2: the stars of this league. And then I have Andrew Wiggins,
Speaker 2: who I could probably turn around and flip again if
Speaker 2: I wanted to to somebody else or flip at the
Speaker 2: over the summer. Right now, let's forget about all that
Speaker 2: for a second. Let's pretend Brooklyn goes no. We like McHale,
Speaker 2: Bridge is more more than Johnathan Kaminga, and then Golden
Speaker 2: State goes, okay, here's a bunch of draft compensation two,
Speaker 2: and then Brooklyn says, yes, yeah, Now Dorian Finney Smith
Speaker 2: and McHale Bridges are on the Golden State Warriors between
Speaker 2: Steph Clay and Raymond. Start with you, Carson, how seriously
Speaker 2: would you take that team as a contender.
Speaker 3: I would take that team probably as seriously as anybody
Speaker 3: out west other than certainly Denver and maybe the Clippers.
Speaker 3: But I think that they would be firmly in that
Speaker 3: tier because I think that they would fundamentally raise their
Speaker 3: defensive ceiling. They would add shooting, they would add some size.
Speaker 3: I mean, they would have awesome overall wing defense. And
Speaker 3: I will say I think the draft compensation would do
Speaker 3: it because you make good points, and I do think
Speaker 3: that Jonathan Kminga is going to be really good. I
Speaker 3: just think mcal is like your third guy, pretty ideal
Speaker 3: third guy. But you're right, what does Brooklyn need a
Speaker 3: third guy for. They're not even close to a first guy.
Speaker 3: He's twenty seven, so he's twenty seven. He really is
Speaker 3: who he is at this point, So I think that
Speaker 3: would be a big win for the Warriors.
Speaker 1: I'd have them up there with the Clippers.
Speaker 5: And one thing that you mentioned earlier, Jason, is just
Speaker 5: kind of the vibe and the energy around Golden State.
Speaker 5: I mean, don't you guys think that light's a little
Speaker 5: bit of a fire under and too?
Speaker 3: Oh hell yeah, oh yeah, yeah. The vibes are broken
Speaker 3: right now. That would repair them.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And what I like about that kind of lineup too,
Speaker 2: is it very much is not trying to be Denver.
Speaker 2: It's very much like still trying to be Golden State
Speaker 2: in a very kind of like in a very unique.
Speaker 4: Way, like I did be a little thin.
Speaker 2: But what I also like too is it would maintain
Speaker 2: the bench mob like you still have Trace Jackson Davis
Speaker 2: and Dario Sarach and Brandon Pitzemski and Chris Paul like
Speaker 2: you'd and Gary Payton like you. You'd maintain your bench mob,
Speaker 2: you'd maintain your ball handling when STEP's off the floor.
Speaker 2: That to me is the move that to me, I
Speaker 2: would be Colin Brooklyn and I'd be like, I want
Speaker 2: Michale Bridges and Dorian Finney Smith because that to me
Speaker 2: is like I'm not You're also bringing in a couple
Speaker 2: of guys to well, specifically one guy and Mikhail Bridges
Speaker 2: that is so damn talented and so firmly in the
Speaker 2: heart of his prime that it just kind of reinvigorates
Speaker 2: and buys you time for guys like Poziemski to develop,
Speaker 2: buys you time to, you know, figure out what you're
Speaker 2: gonna do with some of these other veteran guys in
Speaker 2: the long run. You know what I mean. To me,
Speaker 2: it's like a very nice, kind of like little soft rebuild.
Speaker 2: All right, guys, we've been going like almost two hours.
Speaker 2: I sincerely appreciate you guys taking the time. Thank you
Speaker 2: all of our listeners for supporting the show. I am
Speaker 2: gonna go take five days off and do some skiing
Speaker 2: in Denver. I sincerely appreciate or's not Denver, but in Breckenridge.
Speaker 2: I sincerely appreciate all of you guys for rocking with us.
Speaker 2: When we get back. It's straight grind until the middle
Speaker 2: of June. I was talking to Ryan Brumley, our lead
Speaker 2: producer here at Hoops tonight the other day, and I
Speaker 2: think we're gonna try to get the Nerd Sash guys
Speaker 2: on every other Friday, if you're up for it. So
Speaker 2: no pressure, but I'm asking you here on the air,
Speaker 2: so like you see, you have no choice but.
Speaker 4: To say yes. We love nothing more.
Speaker 2: Alrighty, I appreciate you guys, have a good weekend. I'll
Speaker 2: see you on Wednesday.
Speaker 1: The Volume