1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enrounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:21,440 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Watch us 5 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 2: Eighteen sixty four, as we step into the wayback machine, 7 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 2: a law from the Civil War that criminalized nearly all 8 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 2: abortions in Arizona can now take effect according to Arizona's 9 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 2: Supreme Court. This is a ruling that could have massive 10 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 2: implications in the presidential campaign. I know it's just Arizona, 11 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 2: but that's one of the swing states that we are 12 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 2: looking at that could well decide the next president of 13 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 2: the United States, and so we wanted to talk about 14 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 2: it with Samara Klarr on the ground in Arizona has 15 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 2: been hearing about it for the last twenty four hours 16 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 2: in person here, political science professor at the University of Arizona, 17 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 2: co author of the book Independent Politics, How American disdain 18 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 2: for parties leads to political inactions. Samora, it's great to 19 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 2: have you back. Did Joe Biden just win Arizona? 20 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 1: Well, you know. 21 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:20,399 Speaker 3: It's interesting to see Republican candidates here in Arizona over 22 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 3: the last twenty four hours really almost clamoring to express 23 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 3: the strongest possible outrage they can, which is a bit 24 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 3: of a shift from what we've been seeing over the 25 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 3: last ten years or so. Both Republicans and Democrats in 26 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 3: Arizona are seeing the polling and they see what I 27 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 3: see when I pull Arizona's which is that there's really 28 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,680 Speaker 3: very very weak support for a ban like the one 29 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 3: that went into place yesterday. In fact, I pulled eight 30 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 3: hundred registered voters just a couple of weeks ago, and 31 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 3: only seven percent of Arizona voters support the type of 32 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 3: ban that was ruled yesterday. Seven percent. So that's not 33 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 3: good news. Re candidate here in Arizona is really doing 34 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 3: what they can to distance themselves from this ruling. 35 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 2: No better symbol than the evolution of Carrie Lake, of course, 36 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 2: running for Senate in Arizona, who at one time embraced 37 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 2: this Civil War era law, said that this was a 38 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 2: good thing, and has been certainly backing away from it 39 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 2: in the last twenty four hours. Doesn't that tell us 40 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 2: everything we need to know? 41 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 4: Oh? 42 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, there's really been no more dramatic pivot 43 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:31,359 Speaker 3: than what we're seeing am on Carrie Lake, and it's 44 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 3: been in the works for a little while. I remember 45 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 3: noticing just several months ago that she was really starting 46 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 3: to change her rhetoric from this strong pro life position 47 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 3: to now saying sort of what we're hearing Donald Trump 48 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 3: say now, which is that it should be left to 49 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 3: people to decide, and you know, meet's up to the states, 50 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 3: aft to the voters. So you know, Democrats have had 51 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 3: abortion as kind of a winning issue for them, honestly, 52 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 3: really ever since Dabbs. It's really helped out Democrats in 53 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 3: states like Arizona, and the Republicans now are just kind 54 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 3: of trying to do some damage control and trying to 55 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 3: figure out how they can sort of balance between maintaining 56 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,519 Speaker 3: this pro life position that many of them have put 57 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 3: forward for years now, but also understanding that the vast majority, 58 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 3: especially in a state like Arizona, voters do not support 59 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 3: an abortion ban. 60 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:20,920 Speaker 2: Two years ago, Carrie Lake called this a great law, 61 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 2: that's a direct quote, calling it a model for other 62 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 2: states to follow. Another quote, yesterday, she condemned it, calling 63 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 2: for an immediate, common sense solution that Arizonas can support. 64 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 2: David Schweikert, Republican Congressman from Arizona, this issue should be 65 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 2: decided by Arizona's not legislated from the bench. I encouraged 66 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 2: the state legislature to address this issue immediately. Is this 67 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 2: how Republicans will run on this in Arizona? 68 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 3: I think that at this point, unless they do a 69 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 3: full pivot and you know, become pro choice, which who knows, 70 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 3: I mean, anything could happen in the way things are going, 71 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 3: but at this point I think that's their best bet. 72 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 3: I mean, the polling that I did last week shows 73 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 3: forty percent of Arizona voters forty percent, which was higher 74 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 3: than I expected, said that they think abortion should always 75 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 3: be left to a woman and her doctor to decide. 76 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 3: Twenty five percent support a ban with exceptions, so exceptions 77 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,279 Speaker 3: for rape, for incess, for threats to mother's life. The 78 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 3: ruling yesterday put into place a law that has no exceptions. 79 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 3: So the ruling as of yesterday would put into place 80 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 3: an abortion ban without any exceptions for rape forrincess. So 81 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 3: this is a deeply unpopular law. As I mentioned, you know, 82 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 3: seven percent of Arizona's say they support this kind of 83 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 3: a loss seven percent, so Yeah, Republican candidates are trying 84 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 3: to figure out how they can distance themselves from it 85 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 3: without completely going back, although as you just mentioned, we're 86 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 3: already seeing a lot of backtracking. 87 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 1: That's remarkable. 88 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 2: This is a Samara's poll of eight hundred registered voters 89 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 2: in Arizona. If you didn't quite just hear that, seven 90 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 2: percent single digits support a ban with no exceptions, twenty 91 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 2: five percent with exception, sixty six supporting abortion at various 92 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 2: points in a pregnancy. Will the state legislature act then 93 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 2: based on numbers like these? 94 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 3: Oh, I think already, you know, they're already trying to 95 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:15,720 Speaker 3: figure out how they're going to move forward. The ban 96 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 3: is not currently in effect. There's I think a two 97 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 3: week period where it's now being sent to a different court, 98 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 3: and then they're going to have several weeks to figure out, 99 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 3: you know, what exactly their plan is going to be 100 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 3: going forward. But I think there's a very very low 101 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 3: chance that this band will stay in place in Arizona. 102 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 3: It has no support among the public, it has no 103 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 3: support among the politicians. It doesn't seem like this is going. 104 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 5: To last long. 105 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,599 Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable timing. Just a day after Donald Trump issued 106 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 2: his statement on abortion, saying that it's up to the states. 107 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 2: So all the states have spoken, haven't they. 108 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 3: I mean, I think this is really going to be 109 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,359 Speaker 3: a huge issue for Democrats, of course in Arizona and elsewhere. 110 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,479 Speaker 3: Another thing I'd point out from that pull that I 111 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 3: recently did is that those who support abortion rights also 112 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 3: say that it's much more important to them when it 113 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 3: comes to their vote choice relative to those who are 114 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 3: pose abortion. So pro choice voters are more likely to 115 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 3: make that a centerpiece of their voting decision. Pro life 116 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 3: voters are more likely to actually vote on something else. 117 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 3: So there's a far greater risk of losing the pro 118 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 3: choice voters than there are losing the pro life voters. 119 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 2: We're going to talk about this more over the course 120 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 2: of our hour. Really great to have you back, Samara 121 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:30,479 Speaker 2: Klar from the University of Arizona. Great conversation, great insights, 122 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 2: and thank you tomorrow for sharing your research with us. 123 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,479 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 124 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 125 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,679 Speaker 1: Rounoto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 126 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 127 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 128 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 2: Pretty fascinating. Here is Joe Biden makes news in an 129 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 2: interview on Univision about apparently what will be an executive 130 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 2: action that he's preparing to take. Remembering that this border 131 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 2: deal never got past the Senate that was struck earlier, 132 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 2: it was tied to funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. 133 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 2: In this case, he is eyeing a restriction on the 134 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 2: definition of asylum, and this brings us back to that 135 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 2: very debate. A tightened criteria for asylum he would use authority, 136 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 2: according to Univision and what he said in this interview 137 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 2: in section two twelve of the Immigration and Nationality Act. 138 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 2: Here's a little piece of his interview that aired last 139 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 2: evening on Univision. 140 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 6: Well, it suggests that that we're examining whether or not 141 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 6: I have that power. There's no guarantee that I have 142 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 6: that power all by myself without legislation, and some suggests 143 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 6: that I should just go ahead and try it and 144 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 6: if I get shut down by the court, and get 145 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 6: shut down by the court, but we're trying to work 146 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 6: through that right. 147 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: Now, so. 148 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 2: Maybe it'll work. Let's assemble our panel for their take. 149 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano or together today Bloomberg Politics 150 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 2: contributors are signature panel. Jeanie, what do you think about 151 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 2: this most recent swing at an issue that will not 152 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 2: leave Joe Biden alone? 153 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, this was something the President raised when 154 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 5: he was an eagle pass. I think it was about 155 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,119 Speaker 5: a month ago. He said, you know, we need to act, 156 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 5: and we understand there has been a fierce debate in 157 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 5: the White House over whether in fact this is legal constitutional, 158 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 5: but very much as you described, he's going to do 159 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 5: what you know, essentially use the same portion of the 160 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 5: bill that we saw Donald Trump use to try to 161 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 5: take this executive action. And he really does need to 162 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:49,079 Speaker 5: act on this issue because we are talking about an 163 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 5: issue where he is losing support among Latinos in the 164 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 5: polls where we are seeing this is the number one 165 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 5: issue on the minds of many voters, and not just 166 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 5: on the southern border states. Of course, Donald Trump has 167 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 5: been using these issues, so he needs to address this. 168 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,320 Speaker 5: He's going to try to act this way, but again, 169 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 5: it is not the comprehensive policy we need. It is 170 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 5: what we've seen for the last several years quite frankly, 171 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 5: and he will try it, but it probably won't be effective. 172 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 2: I don't know if this will require a congressional approval 173 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 2: or if members of Congress, Well, what of who am 174 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 2: I kidding? 175 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 1: Rick? 176 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 2: The pushback from Republicans in the House will be fierce, 177 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 2: won't it. 178 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, the pushback will be fierce. They want hr to 179 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 4: the flagship border bill that they created over a year 180 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:40,959 Speaker 4: ago that's gone absolutely nowhere, a talking point that's about 181 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 4: as dead as the bill itself. But the reality is 182 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 4: this is sort of an ongoing talking point coming out 183 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 4: of the White House that they established with the Senate 184 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 4: Bill on Security as Systems. This was part of this 185 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 4: idea that they could empower the president if a number 186 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 4: of border cross he's got over five thousand a day, 187 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,560 Speaker 4: that that would give him the ability, you know, laterally 188 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 4: then to shut the border. So I think this is 189 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 4: kind of you know, Senate border bill too, which is okay, 190 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 4: maybe I don't need congressional approval to do that. Maybe 191 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 4: I just try and do it myself. Get pretty canny 192 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 4: on the part of the White House. They are looking 193 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 4: at this going okay, he can look tough on the border. 194 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 4: I would bet that it has a threshold issue involved 195 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 4: like five thousand people crossing the border in one day, 196 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 4: and my guess is that he would welcome a court challenge. 197 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 4: One they've always been skittish about controlling the border, and two, 198 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 4: you know, that would give him an argument that says, hey, 199 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 4: we're trying to do this and these crazy you know, 200 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:47,599 Speaker 4: Trump courts are keeping us from doing it. And we 201 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 4: couldn't get the build through Congress because Republicans bailed on 202 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 4: their own idea. So I actually think it's a good 203 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 4: way to deal with the border issue. He's never going 204 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 4: to win on it, but he just needs to look 205 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 4: like he's trying the best he can to not let 206 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:02,199 Speaker 4: the border me completely free. 207 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 2: So that's the point here, Jennie. It's messaging you don't 208 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 2: necessarily have to create a new policy when you're running 209 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 2: for reelection here, just be caught in the act trying. 210 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, and what Rick says is absolutely right politically, and 211 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 5: you're absolutely right, Joe. The problem is this does nothing 212 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 5: to address the key issues, and that has always been 213 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 5: the problem. So there is very little sunlight between Joe 214 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 5: Biden and Donald Trump in these EO attempts. They either 215 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 5: fail in court or they minimally address the issue, and 216 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 5: we can't. We don't. We have a Congress that's not acting, 217 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 5: and so yes, it is a lot of theater. If 218 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 5: you will, it may help around the edges, but it's 219 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 5: not going to solve the issue. And let's not forget 220 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 5: we had the highest number of border crossings in December 221 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 5: of last year. That's just a few months ago. So 222 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 5: you know that is I think the troubling part of this. 223 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 5: We need comprehensive reform, we are not going to get it, 224 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 5: and so they are choosing in this campaign year to 225 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 5: do what candidates do. 226 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 2: Rick, We're about to hear from Joe Biden and the 227 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 2: Prime Minister of Japan a bilateral news conference in the 228 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 2: Rose Garden, and you know how this stuff goes. The 229 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 2: White House would love for us to ask a lot 230 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,199 Speaker 2: of questions about investing in Japan and strengthening our military alliance, 231 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 2: but it's going to be just like this that come up, right, 232 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 2: what's the job for Joe Biden when he goes to 233 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 2: Q and A with reporters today? 234 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean a job for Joe Biden is not 235 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 4: to do what he always does, which is wax on, 236 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 4: you know, not so poetically about issues that aren't there 237 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 4: for the day, that may be driven by special interests 238 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:45,440 Speaker 4: that are sitting in there, sometimes referred to as the press, 239 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,839 Speaker 4: and so like this, it's just so hard for him. 240 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 4: He loves to talk about these issues of domestic interest, 241 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 4: and yet today really is an incredibly important day. The 242 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 4: Prime Minister's visit harkins a new relationship defence y with 243 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 4: Japan puts them from a passivist nation into one that 244 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 4: will protect their self interest in not only their own waters, 245 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:11,959 Speaker 4: but territorial waters, which means code for the South China Sea. 246 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 4: And so this is kind of a page turner. We 247 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 4: haven't had much conversation about this part of the world lately, 248 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 4: and I think it's an opportunity for the Biden administration 249 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,679 Speaker 4: to show what kind of deterrence they're trying to put 250 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 4: up against Chinese aggression. And part of it is these 251 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 4: bilateral and multilateral relationships that have been developed as part 252 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 4: of the deterrence effect against China. 253 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 2: Is this a high risk situation for Joe Biden meeting 254 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 2: the press today, Genie, what's your take? 255 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,319 Speaker 5: It should not be. I mean, there is nothing that 256 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 5: has bipartisan support more than confronting China, and that's what 257 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 5: this visit is all about, or it should be about. 258 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 5: You know, there are some potential areas where he can 259 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 5: stumble or know they can ask him things that that 260 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 5: may cause him to veer off. But you would think 261 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 5: this would be a you know, home run, so to speak, 262 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 5: because there is bipartisan support for doing what we're doing. 263 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 5: And you know, I suspect Hill will get some questions 264 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:20,200 Speaker 5: on his intervention in US steel. You know, obviously they're 265 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 5: going to talk about inflation, as you mentioned, all kinds 266 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 5: of things, but on this particular visit, it should be 267 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 5: widespread support. The Prime Minister is supposed to be speaking 268 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 5: before Congress this week. This is an important relationship for 269 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 5: the United States and the Biden administration's efforts to as 270 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 5: Rick was talking about, confront China, So you don't think 271 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 5: there would be any room to sort of get off 272 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 5: off focus, but you never know that you press, even 273 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 5: the Premary. 274 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 2: Well, i'll tell you what we're going to experience this 275 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 2: together as always with Rick and Genie. They're going to 276 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 2: be back with us next hour or second hour of 277 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 2: balance of power, and I suspect that the President will 278 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 2: join us via the Rose Gardener that time as well. 279 00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 2: This was scheduled for twelve thirty, a little more than 280 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 2: twenty minutes ago, and when he speaks, along with the 281 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 2: Japanese Prime Minister, will bring you his remarks. With that 282 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 2: in mind, I wanted to bring Nick Watams into the conversation. 283 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 2: Of course, runs our national security coverage here in Washington, 284 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 2: because this is a military alliance that we're talking about here. 285 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 2: I know he's going to get questions on abortion and 286 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 2: the border, but assuming those reporters are called on, but 287 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 2: this is about strengthening our military ties with Japan investing 288 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 2: in our military. In fact, the order as we saw yesterday, 289 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 2: or the call to create a Council on Defense Industries, 290 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 2: all with China in mind. Nick is with us at 291 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 2: the table here. It's good to see you, sir. This 292 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 2: is pretty significant when you think of US collaborating on 293 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 2: military projects, Japanese workers on US ships import overseas. How 294 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 2: much time went into this, How significant is it? 295 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 7: Well, you know it's there's the big question we always 296 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 7: have on these summits is how much of it is 297 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 7: really about signaling in the alliance and how much of 298 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 7: it is we actually are going to see some real 299 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 7: concrete action here, and it looks from this one like 300 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 7: there's going to be some action. The two sides are 301 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 7: really are deepening ties, but and they're taking concrete steps 302 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 7: to mesh their militaries closer together, which is interesting for 303 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 7: Japan because you know the defense spending for Japan. Historically 304 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 7: they have not put a huge amount of money in 305 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 7: the military, but there's been this change because of the 306 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 7: rise of China and its own military expansion, So that's 307 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 7: quite interesting. But I think you really need to see 308 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 7: this summit much more as a signal to China. So 309 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 7: it's not so much about the individual things that these 310 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 7: two countries are going to be doing, but that they 311 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 7: are presenting a united front against what they see as 312 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 7: their chief rival. So it'll be much more about about 313 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 7: the signaling effort to sort of show that also with 314 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 7: the Philippines. There's a trilateral some with the Philippines coming 315 00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 7: up the next day. It'll be a big part of that. 316 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 2: This is slowly becoming the NATO of the Pacific, as 317 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 2: Admiral Stavritas called for. 318 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 7: I don't know if we're quite there yet, but is. 319 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 2: That a real conversation though, I am. 320 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 7: Yes, But certainly nothing as formal as NATO. I mean 321 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 7: that has been essentially the most successful and biggest defense 322 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 7: and security alliance of the post Cold War world. I 323 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 7: think it would be very difficult. There's a little bit 324 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:27,640 Speaker 7: too much fractiousness in Asia for countries to be able 325 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 7: to do that. I mean, another interesting element here is 326 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 7: how much of this summit is the Biden administration also 327 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 7: trying to spread the love among its allies. It wasn't 328 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 7: too long ago that the US had a summit in 329 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 7: Washington with South Korea. Now they have their summit with 330 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,879 Speaker 7: the Japanese leader as well, So it's you sort of 331 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:53,679 Speaker 7: see this alliance management through the distribution and awarding of 332 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 7: summits to various allied countries. So this is a very 333 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 7: big deal for Japan. I think our sense is that 334 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,920 Speaker 7: for the US, it's really about sending a signal more 335 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 7: than actually trying to achieve something company the. 336 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:08,639 Speaker 2: Real For Japan, first time in almost a decade for 337 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 2: a Japanese leader to be at the White. 338 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 1: House like this, we get the full roll out the 339 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 1: state dinner. 340 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 2: Not every world leader gets a reception like this, so 341 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 2: there's clearly a deliberate messaging going on. 342 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 7: Well, and the other thing that's fascinating about it is that, 343 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 7: you know, if you look at the Trump administration, they 344 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 7: really heralded his alliance, his close friendship with Japan, as 345 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 7: a key foreign policy success for him. So there was 346 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 7: some unease by the Japanese when President Biden came in 347 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 7: if he would maintain what was essentially what President Trump 348 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 7: had as the premier alliance of his presidency. Of course, 349 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 7: got an election coming up. President Biden also wants to 350 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,360 Speaker 7: send a signal to Japan that hey, you guys did 351 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 7: really well under Trump. You've had a great time, but 352 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 7: I've got your back as well. So there's a domestic 353 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 7: element here as well that's fascinating. 354 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,159 Speaker 2: Just quickly, in our last moment, they're going to be 355 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 2: talks about how Japan can help support the Aucust alliance 356 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 2: as well as what is it a second pillar as 357 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,920 Speaker 2: they call it, that's sort of an adjacent relationship. Could 358 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 2: they eventually become part of it. 359 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,439 Speaker 7: Well, Australia is pushing back really hard on that idea, 360 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 7: but what they have said is that they do want 361 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 7: to fold Japan into the sort of technological element of August. 362 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 7: So there's the whole subs deal that Australia is going 363 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 7: to get these subs. But then there's this whole other 364 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 7: part where they're talking about advanced technologies, and that's obviously 365 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 7: a place where they want a pen to play a role. 366 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 367 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,160 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 368 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 1: and then Proud Ato with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 369 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 370 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 371 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,359 Speaker 8: We want to turn now to one of our favorites 372 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,440 Speaker 8: here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. The former Congressman from Virginia, 373 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,800 Speaker 8: Ver Rigelman, is joining us once again. Congressman, it's great 374 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,919 Speaker 8: to have you here as we're talking about geopolitics very 375 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,399 Speaker 8: much in focus with this visit between Biden and the 376 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 8: Prime Minister of Japan and countering China in that specific theater. 377 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 8: We know that geopolitics are at play in congressional behavior 378 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 8: as well, including this issue of aid for Ukraine and 379 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:21,159 Speaker 8: whatever could come as a consequence. We've heard from members 380 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 8: of Congress today that Ukraine aid could go to the 381 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 8: floor next week for a vote. So then will it 382 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 8: be what the next day that there could be a 383 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:32,199 Speaker 8: move from Marjorie Taylor Green to oust how speaker Mike Johnson, 384 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 8: What do you think is going to go down here? 385 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 9: You know what happens with the irrational? 386 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 1: You know, good to be here. 387 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 9: By the way, I was thinking about, I guess there's 388 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 9: a meeting right now between Marjorie Taylor Green and Mike Johnson. 389 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 9: And when you're talking about serious discussions on foreign policy, 390 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,199 Speaker 9: I think many of us, you know, including me and 391 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 9: many have been warning that the unserious shouldn't be making 392 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,360 Speaker 9: policy discuss decisions. And right now you have somebody who 393 00:20:56,359 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 9: compared himself to Moses talking to somebody who misspelled Marshall 394 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 9: law when she called for it in the Mark Meadows text. 395 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 9: I don't know how serious those discussions are. So when 396 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 9: you see Marjorie Taylor Green actually coming up and saying, hey, 397 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 9: we're going to put a motion to vacate on the floor, 398 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 9: I really can't imagine, even with the insanity that's going 399 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:14,880 Speaker 9: on on the GOP caucus right now, I can imagine 400 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 9: that a majority or even a large minority will back 401 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 9: Marjorie Taylor Green and calling for Mike Johnson's ouster at 402 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,919 Speaker 9: this time. I just don't think that's going to happen. However, 403 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,479 Speaker 9: it's very hard to predict insanity, and I think when 404 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 9: you're looking at Congress right now, I think that's the 405 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,639 Speaker 9: issue that you have, is that it's so unpredictable and 406 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 9: so unserious. That's something like that Mike gain traction. But again, 407 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 9: I'm hoping that we still have enough serious legislators in 408 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,160 Speaker 9: there where something like that wouldn't happen at this time. 409 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 2: Hey, Denver, great to have you back. I bet you 410 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 2: can predict the reaction to Joe Biden's apparent looming executive 411 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 2: order on the border. You talked to Univision last night 412 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 2: and said that he's going to do this and start 413 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 2: to squeeze the definition of asylum, lower the number of 414 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 2: people who are crossing the border. This, of course, is 415 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,919 Speaker 2: something that's come up multiple times and in different forms, 416 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 2: including an actual compromise piece of legislation that was kicked back. 417 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 2: What's Mike Johnson going to say to this, You. 418 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 9: Know, Mike Johnson is actually going to take a victory 419 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 9: lab you know, if you look at it completely politically, 420 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 9: he's going to say, listen, our warnings about the border 421 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 9: are proved fruitful, and we finally have a President who's 422 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,200 Speaker 9: acting way too late on the border. That's what they're 423 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 9: going to message, and they're going to roll that message 424 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 9: throughout the entire GOP conference. You know, President Biden's going 425 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:26,959 Speaker 9: to say, listen, we've seen the data. There is an 426 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,399 Speaker 9: issue at the border, and we feel that we have 427 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,680 Speaker 9: to do this at a time because Congress isn't they're 428 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 9: unable to act. Think about These are going to be 429 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 9: the competing political visions that you have there, and that's 430 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,959 Speaker 9: how each will message. One will message that we were 431 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:39,879 Speaker 9: right all along. The other will message that Congress is 432 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 9: so ridiculous that they have to do something. And if 433 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,640 Speaker 9: you look at it really empirically, there is a problem 434 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 9: at the border. We know that that's there. I've been 435 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:50,520 Speaker 9: doing national security for twenty years. I've actually done border 436 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,120 Speaker 9: ops back in the day, things I really can't talk 437 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 9: about as much based on intel in surveillance and reconnaissance 438 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 9: back in twenty ten and twenty eleven. So you know, 439 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 9: so again, there is definitely a problem there. There are 440 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 9: issues there, but both will try to claim victory. One 441 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,439 Speaker 9: that they've been right all along and the other that 442 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 9: Congress might have been right but they just can't act 443 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 9: on it because they're so misaligned and so chaotic. So 444 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 9: I think that's what that's the messaging that's going to 445 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,440 Speaker 9: come from both camps after this happens. 446 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,800 Speaker 8: Well, Denver, you mentioned your intelligence background, it's worth noting 447 00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 8: that it's not just the border that former President Trump 448 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 8: has weighed in on in terms of potential congressional action. Today, 449 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 8: he weighed in on the FISA reauthorization specifically, of course 450 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 8: section seven oh two, which is the warrantless surveillance program. 451 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,720 Speaker 8: There's been some concern about the privacy of Americans who 452 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 8: may get caught up in some of that intelligence gathering activity. 453 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 8: Trump posted on True Social kill FISA it was illegally 454 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 8: used against me and many others. They spied on my campaign. 455 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 8: You have a number of House Republicans now, Matt Gates, 456 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 8: Anapauline A Luna, Tim Burchett saying they will vote no 457 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,160 Speaker 8: on the rule, the procedural vote to try to get 458 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,159 Speaker 8: this thing across. Is this once again Trump wielding his 459 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 8: power in the House. Is FISA potentially not going to 460 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 8: be renewed before that April nineteenth deadline. 461 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 9: It's a great question, and yes, it is him wielding 462 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,359 Speaker 9: his power to the House. So look at the people 463 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:09,920 Speaker 9: you just mentioned that are voting against it. It's not 464 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 9: a surprise. I think it's saying people that want to 465 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:14,880 Speaker 9: do the UFO committee, So that doesn't surprise me very much. 466 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 9: And you know, when you're looking at FAISA also, FISA 467 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,640 Speaker 9: is incredibly important the United States security. Anybody who's dealt 468 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 9: in the FISA world like I have when I worked 469 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 9: at the National Security Agency, actually should be trying to 470 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 9: support FIES in many levels. Of course, we don't want 471 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 9: to trample on Americans' rights. We want to make sure 472 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 9: that's properly regulated. We want to make sure that the 473 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 9: authorizations are correct. We want to make sure that there's 474 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 9: transparency to actually the committees that that oversee the PISA process. 475 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 9: We want to make sure the intelligence communities are transparent 476 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 9: when they're asked for budgeting. Of course, you want to 477 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 9: do all that, but FISA is very important. What you 478 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 9: have as a president, you know, he's screaming into a 479 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,680 Speaker 9: popcorn box and you've got people that are actually listening 480 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 9: to them. And that's the issue that you have, is 481 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,920 Speaker 9: that instead of thinking about the actual nuances of policy 482 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:58,359 Speaker 9: protecting American citizens in America based on the ability to 483 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 9: use FISA for arism or financial activities that support terrorism 484 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 9: or criminal activity from foreign sources. We have people that 485 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,600 Speaker 9: literally believe that aliens are in the Bible talking about 486 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 9: voting against FIZA based on President Trump putting out a 487 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,879 Speaker 9: declaration about FAIZA because actually he's in trouble with the 488 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,640 Speaker 9: law so much so I hope everybody got that cascading effect. 489 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 9: That's how I like to actually do it. But again, 490 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 9: there's an unseiousness in Congress. I think that all of 491 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 9: us in America need to address and point out when 492 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:28,119 Speaker 9: this happens. 493 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 2: I'm spending time with former Republican Congressman Denver Riggleman, the 494 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,439 Speaker 2: gentleman from Virginia with us as we wait to hear 495 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 2: from Joe Biden. We've been showing you pictures of a 496 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 2: ever more busy Rose Garden where he's going to be 497 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 2: speaking with the Japanese Prime Minister. 498 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: Denver. 499 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:45,879 Speaker 2: We spoke with Sarah Chamberlin yesterday here on Balance of Power, 500 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 2: the head of the Republican Main Street Partnership. This is 501 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 2: somebody talking every day with Centrists, and when the matter 502 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 2: of Ukraine funding came up, she said something we hadn't 503 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 2: heard before. We keep hearing it's going to be weeks, 504 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 2: maybe months. I want you to listen to what Sarah 505 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 2: said about the potential for an imminent vote on Ukraine 506 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 2: and we'll have you respond here. 507 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 8: She is it's going to pass either this week of 508 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:09,880 Speaker 8: very early next. 509 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 4: Week without quest Wow. 510 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,440 Speaker 8: Yeah, we haven't seen the text yet. 511 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:14,879 Speaker 4: It's going to pass. 512 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,200 Speaker 3: They really want to get this moving and get this done, 513 00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 3: and they want to help Ukraine. 514 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,679 Speaker 2: Well to Kaylee's point, we haven't even seen the text yet, Denver. 515 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 2: Do you actually think that this Republican Ledhouse could surprise 516 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:27,960 Speaker 2: us on Ukraine. 517 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 9: I think it's possible. You know, there's always a difference 518 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,240 Speaker 9: between the possible and the probable, and it's easy to 519 00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 9: make statements if you're not in Congress like that. But 520 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 9: I will tell you this, they sort of have to 521 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 9: get the Ukraine Aid moving. And I think what you're 522 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,920 Speaker 9: seeing right now in Russia, what you're seeing in Ukraine, 523 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,400 Speaker 9: if you're a serious legislator, we have to support Ukraine. 524 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 9: It is one hundred percent down the line that anybody 525 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 9: that sees Russian history and what's happening in Russia today 526 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 9: should support Ukraine Aid immediately. And I just want to 527 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 9: state that, and that's how I would vote. However, you 528 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,639 Speaker 9: never know, you got people voting on the rule. Have 529 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 9: we had mar Lago and Donald Trump actually way in yet, 530 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 9: like you did on Faiza. All these things we have 531 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:10,480 Speaker 9: to look at. And you know, those are the type 532 00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:12,200 Speaker 9: of issues you have to look at. Again, you can 533 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,199 Speaker 9: only predict the future after it happens when you're in 534 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 9: Congress to saying that, I learned an intelligence training. Also, 535 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 9: you know, it's very hard to predict the future. I 536 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,760 Speaker 9: would think that they should have a bill on the 537 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 9: floor for Ukraine AID this week. I wouldn't be surprised 538 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,200 Speaker 9: if they didn't, but I do think I think it's 539 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 9: fifty one forty nine that they do. 540 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:31,359 Speaker 5: That would be news. 541 00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 8: Indeed it would. And Congressman is we're still waiting here 542 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,440 Speaker 8: the press conference between Biden and Kashida as we're talking 543 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 8: about US alliances, especially given what we are seeing in 544 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,879 Speaker 8: the current behavior of the US Congress for when it 545 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 8: comes to many allies, including Israel and Ukraine. Of course, 546 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:50,679 Speaker 8: as we've been discussing, when the President says something and 547 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:52,440 Speaker 8: I'm making up words here, but I would imagine a 548 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 8: lot of this conversation has gone Japan. We stand with you. 549 00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,679 Speaker 8: Our alliance is strong, we would like to make it stronger. 550 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:02,920 Speaker 8: Is Congress making that our dogument have less credibility right now? 551 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,160 Speaker 8: Is the US credible when it says such things? 552 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 9: You know, it's really hard. I think allies were probably 553 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 9: looking for stability, and I would hope that Congress exudes 554 00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:13,880 Speaker 9: that over the next week or two, which is still, 555 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,760 Speaker 9: again I think, very difficult. But I would say this 556 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:23,119 Speaker 9: is that stupid suggests instability, so does unseriousness, and I 557 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,199 Speaker 9: believe that's what a lot of Allies are saying. When 558 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,520 Speaker 9: you see Mike Johnson, you know, him actually having to 559 00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:30,760 Speaker 9: negotiate with the Marjorie Taylor Green. I do think that 560 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,840 Speaker 9: foreign governments in the executive in their legislative branch, as 561 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 9: we're looking at this like America has certainly gone crazy 562 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,480 Speaker 9: at this point, and they're hoping for some sobriety and 563 00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,400 Speaker 9: stability at the executive branch to balance out what's happening 564 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:44,960 Speaker 9: in the legislative branch. So I think that's what you're 565 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,560 Speaker 9: going to see today is Biden trying to reassure Japan 566 00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 9: that the chaos that they're seeing the legislative branch is 567 00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,680 Speaker 9: not going to somehow cascade into our support of Japan, 568 00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:55,440 Speaker 9: especially when you're looking at China, you're looking at the 569 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 9: South China Sea, and also really the future of US 570 00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,480 Speaker 9: helping Japan grow their military capability beyond where they are today. 571 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 9: I think a lot of that is very important. But again, 572 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,040 Speaker 9: I think you're going to see in the Rose Garden 573 00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 9: today President Pride trying to reassure Japan and the Japanese 574 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 9: people that America can overcome the chast that we're seeing 575 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 9: the legislative branch right now. 576 00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,360 Speaker 2: Denver, it's great to have you back, Denver Riggleman, former 577 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 2: congressman from Virginia. Great to see you and good to 578 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 2: have you back with us today. Thanks for listening to 579 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,520 Speaker 2: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if 580 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 2: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get 581 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 2: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday 582 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 2: from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.