Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Faroll and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day
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Speaker 1: American Economy, Lindsay peggs it joins US chief economist is Stephile. Lindsay,
Speaker 1: are we near recession? I think we are teetering towards
Speaker 1: a recession now. Of course, the fourth quarter number does
Speaker 1: look pretty good, particularly against the backdrop of an even
Speaker 1: stronger rise in the third quarter, But when we look
Speaker 1: at what's happening with the consumer, which is the backbone
Speaker 1: of the US economy, we are seeing a clear loss
Speaker 1: of momentum. And without the consumer happy and healthy out
Speaker 1: in the marketplace, we simply cannot expect to maintain positive growth,
Speaker 1: let alone more robust growth similar to what we saw
Speaker 1: this morning. So I do think that as the Fed
Speaker 1: continues to raise rates, savings are depleted, real income remains
Speaker 1: negative fiscal support fades, there is going to be an
Speaker 1: additional burden on the consumer that leads us into or
Speaker 1: near negative growth. Lindsay Long, you're going far away under
Speaker 1: the religion and the kool ai of Peter Lynch of
Speaker 1: Fidelity Domestic final sales reign Supreme. Michael McKee just mentioned
Speaker 1: that that trend, that tendency there away from the back
Speaker 1: and forth of imports, exports and the rest is a
Speaker 1: pretty Mouldi number. Do you have a belief here that
Speaker 1: a slowdown in domestic final sales brings on the reality
Speaker 1: of recession. It certainly does, because just like when we
Speaker 1: look at inflation, we strip out the more volatile components
Speaker 1: of food and energy. That's what we're doing when we
Speaker 1: look at that real final sales number to domestic purchasers,
Speaker 1: were stripping out the volatility of inventory. We're stripping out
Speaker 1: the volatility of trade. And what we see is a
Speaker 1: more clear defined downward trajectory of growth slowing from up
Speaker 1: near four percent to down here one percent at the
Speaker 1: end of the year. Again, still there was enough resilience
Speaker 1: in the US economy to maintain positive momentum in Q four.
Speaker 1: But the bigger question is are we able to maintain
Speaker 1: that momentum as we turn the calendar page, and most
Speaker 1: of the data suggests that we do not lendy? Do
Speaker 1: you think that the market is wrong because we are
Speaker 1: seeing consumer stocks do really well as they look forward.
Speaker 1: I think the market is severely under appreciating the amount
Speaker 1: of tightening that the FED is going to have to
Speaker 1: embark on in order to reinstate price stability, and thus
Speaker 1: under appreciating the amount of pressure that is going to
Speaker 1: be put on consumers and businesses and the overall economy.
Speaker 1: When do you start to see the data to actually
Speaker 1: prove that before thinking, well, maybe the FED is going
Speaker 1: to be on the side, you do you see inflation
Speaker 1: coming down and we're going to get that soft landing
Speaker 1: that everybody is talking about. I think we're already seeing
Speaker 1: it in the data when we look at retail sales
Speaker 1: negative in November, negative in December, consumer spending still positive.
Speaker 1: But when we look at overall goods and services, that
Speaker 1: too is trending down. Production now in in contractionary territory
Speaker 1: housing taking a sizeable hit. There are multiple, multiple data
Speaker 1: points that are suggesting the U S economy is not
Speaker 1: going to be able to maintain this momentum in the
Speaker 1: new year, and Lindsey, thank you so much. Lindsay with
Speaker 1: stiff step right to it now as we speak to
Speaker 1: liz Ane Saunders about the reality of the equity markets,
Speaker 1: would take a broader view with Philip Camporel portfolio Manager,
Speaker 1: JP Morgan Asset Management this morning, I love, love, love
Speaker 1: your notes, single sentences, observations, weaving it together. And your
Speaker 1: major weave is the epsilon in the back of the equation.
Speaker 1: Uncertainty is going to be less uncertain and we're gonna
Speaker 1: get to certainty. When does J. Powell have certainty? He
Speaker 1: has it right now, Tom, I and I think the
Speaker 1: key to our view is, first of all, good riddance
Speaker 1: to two thousand twenty two. Because as an ascid allocator, Tom,
Speaker 1: what Powell and his friends did last year was create really,
Speaker 1: really tough ways to manage risk. As an ascid allocator,
Speaker 1: we love that if stocks go down, you better have
Speaker 1: bonds as your defense on the other side. And the
Speaker 1: most risky balanced funds last year were the more conservative ones.
Speaker 1: And when do we ever say that? Right? So, the
Speaker 1: thirteen percent draw down in the Barkley's a glad The
Speaker 1: Bloomberg gagery and I'm sorry, was was the was the
Speaker 1: worst to hear that we've ever had. Now going forward,
Speaker 1: you asked me the question when does Powell have certainty?
Speaker 1: It's right now because they're going twenty five basis points
Speaker 1: in February one, and we have been able to say
Speaker 1: that for a long shirt that Lisa showed there, i'm
Speaker 1: PC inflation. We see that as we see that, I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: magnificently shows the one off of this pandemic. Ye does
Speaker 1: JP Morgan across all your platforms suggest we are beyond
Speaker 1: the pandemic or be on the pandemic highs and inflation
Speaker 1: for sure? Right, So that's why we're going to this
Speaker 1: step down in the aggressive in the aggressive tightening sense. Tom.
Speaker 1: Last time I was here, it was at the end
Speaker 1: of you know, the at the end of the third quarter,
Speaker 1: and I told you we had a record high in
Speaker 1: our fund in cash. That is not the case anymore.
Speaker 1: We are putting money to work all over the world.
Speaker 1: We only have two percent in cash right now. We're
Speaker 1: stopping short of saying that we're going to see an
Speaker 1: earnings acceleration or or reign every ignition of the cycle,
Speaker 1: but we are putting money to work in the U S. Specifically,
Speaker 1: we have a twenty percent allocation to invest in great
Speaker 1: corporate bonds. That's the most we've ever had in our portfolio.
Speaker 1: And we have about a nine percent relative value trade
Speaker 1: between US stocks and non U S stocks and we
Speaker 1: we haven't had that since two thousand seventeen. Tom like,
Speaker 1: this is about being active and taking advantage of opportunities. Again,
Speaker 1: after last year, invest in great bonds in the US
Speaker 1: have gained about four percent so far this year. That
Speaker 1: is akin to what we've seen in the SMP five hundred.
Speaker 1: At what point do you know the trade is up,
Speaker 1: that the gains are in that basically you've been on it,
Speaker 1: You've written a good ride, it's over. Yeah, So Lisa,
Speaker 1: we are we are looking for it more for carry.
Speaker 1: What does that mean? It means a yield story. If
Speaker 1: we were really optimistic about the US, we would be
Speaker 1: in the US equity market because we have that option
Speaker 1: as a balanced portfolio manager, rather than in invest in
Speaker 1: grade credits. So the credit story, Lisa, is to get
Speaker 1: us more yield than our index. What I'd say where
Speaker 1: we're trying to get total return is the non US
Speaker 1: equity equity market, So the way that we would go
Speaker 1: back into US equity would be Okay, core PC is
Speaker 1: falling like a rock. The federal funds rate doesn't need
Speaker 1: to be a five percent anymore. And what the FETE
Speaker 1: is saying for two twenty four is going to happen
Speaker 1: in the back half of this year. That is not
Speaker 1: what we're saying. Does that mean that in the US
Speaker 1: when people do start going back, energy is going to
Speaker 1: be the leadership continue to uh sort of reductive last
Speaker 1: year because that is also a yield story that is
Speaker 1: also a dividend play. Yeah. So, um, I think if
Speaker 1: people were to go back into the US equity market,
Speaker 1: it wouldn't be in those yield places. It would be
Speaker 1: in the total return beta stories. You know that the
Speaker 1: growth stories that were played last year, which interest rates
Speaker 1: moving high here. So when people continue to go back
Speaker 1: into the US equity market, I think it will be
Speaker 1: at a time when growth stocks are back, because we're
Speaker 1: not again we're not talking about a re acceleration of growth.
Speaker 1: We're talking about a more subdued growth environment. And then
Speaker 1: in that environment, I think to make keptech stocks can
Speaker 1: do pretty well. You talk about core PC dropping like
Speaker 1: a stone, and there was a mantra or the past decade,
Speaker 1: don't fight the FED. This year it's fight the FED
Speaker 1: because the Fed is wrong. Do you buy that they're
Speaker 1: not wrong? I think they go another fifty basis points
Speaker 1: and then they go on hold right so that they
Speaker 1: cut rates by the end of this year, which is
Speaker 1: what we're seeing. So we're not willing to say that
Speaker 1: yet least. I think that's a little premature, and I
Speaker 1: think Jerome Powell, to your question earlier, Tom, I think
Speaker 1: Jerome Powell may push back on that with open mouth
Speaker 1: operations on February one, which could be a risk, which, again, Lisa,
Speaker 1: is about why we're more in the I G credit
Speaker 1: side than in US equity. The opportunity for equity is overseas.
Speaker 1: There's a constant theme of the people that we have
Speaker 1: conversation with that the market is out front of the FED.
Speaker 1: What are JP Morgan clients ex really doing? Are they
Speaker 1: are they telling you they want to be in the market,
Speaker 1: or are they, as a generalization scared stiff. Tom. Every
Speaker 1: conversation that I'm having right now is about should I
Speaker 1: be looking outside the US? And it's like it's like
Speaker 1: zone because We've been asking people to do that for
Speaker 1: a long time, and right now I think the opportunity
Speaker 1: is listen. As Yogi Bearras said, you'd rather be lucky
Speaker 1: than good. And in Europe they have a three standard
Speaker 1: professor at for when you come to the road exactly.
Speaker 1: So Europe at TOM you had a three standard deviation
Speaker 1: warm winner. This is the warmest winner they've had a decade.
Speaker 1: You mentioned that, and you know we just did with
Speaker 1: Damian says are e M commodities, copper, Chili and paces out.
Speaker 1: It's a three standard deviation move negative to standard deviation,
Speaker 1: strong dollar week, Chile and pay so bombing through to
Speaker 1: a plus one? Does e M pause here or is
Speaker 1: there an urgency to get on board e M and international?
Speaker 1: So listen. E M is the most volatile asset class
Speaker 1: on planet right that we deal with, So I think
Speaker 1: the ways that you manage risk in EM we're just
Speaker 1: buying calls on the index. So if it goes up
Speaker 1: like it did this year, we're going up with the market.
Speaker 1: But if the market tanks, then we're gonna we have
Speaker 1: we have a limited downside without premium, so we're buying
Speaker 1: calls on the That's the way that we're controlling for
Speaker 1: near term volatility. But remember in two thousand one, when
Speaker 1: everybody was talking about how great the equity market was doing,
Speaker 1: e M got crushed in two So there's still even
Speaker 1: with the rally of value, a longer term valuation component
Speaker 1: run out of time. I want to talk to you
Speaker 1: about Toyota and investment in Japan. You gotta come back
Speaker 1: and do that, you know, you know, bring you a
Speaker 1: Jampan his team in Toyota, Lisa Toyota down in US
Speaker 1: dollar terms from the beginning of last year, like twelve
Speaker 1: months train we can talk about him coming up because
Speaker 1: bank in Japan is even moving phil temporally. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much that j people. We're going to asset management
Speaker 1: wanting you about this one episode. I think European effect
Speaker 1: strategy city you do that for cilious. Let's talk about effects,
Speaker 1: and let's talk about a difference right now between people
Speaker 1: constructive on the U S economy and people who are
Speaker 1: less so. The people who are less so are clinging
Speaker 1: to sub fifty pm mice the people who are constructive.
Speaker 1: Look at a jobless claims data which comes out in
Speaker 1: about two AUS thirty minutes, which is in and around
Speaker 1: two hundred thousand. Which one is it? Well, I think,
Speaker 1: as it frequently is the situation, we're somewhere in between.
Speaker 1: There is a slowing in the U. S. Economy, and
Speaker 1: there's definite that's definitely visible in the manufacturing sector, especially
Speaker 1: as you mentioned in the soft surday they did. But
Speaker 1: then again one has to contrast this with an extremely
Speaker 1: tight and a historically tight labor market. So therefore this
Speaker 1: is not going to be an easy one for the FED.
Speaker 1: I mean, currently the market is pricing four point nine percent,
Speaker 1: it's called it five ternal rate. I think we could
Speaker 1: reprise a bit higher um, but to the extent that
Speaker 1: we only reprice modestly higher. I don't think that, say,
Speaker 1: twenty five basis points of repricing higher. It's going to
Speaker 1: be neither here nor there for the dollar. Because I
Speaker 1: think we've switched regime. The fair has become a far
Speaker 1: maturing theme. We're getting close to the peak. And now
Speaker 1: the driving sayies global growth expectations, and this has been
Speaker 1: you know, reignited by the Chinese reopening, and this is
Speaker 1: what is driving the markets. If you if you approach
Speaker 1: this statistically, you can actually say that during the first quarter,
Speaker 1: the first three quarters of twenty two US yields explained
Speaker 1: around the dollar variation. Right now they explain about fifteen percent,
Speaker 1: whereas if you go back and you look at underlying
Speaker 1: fundamental surveys, they are now in the lead. And that's
Speaker 1: because expectations are being related higher. So I'm not trieding
Speaker 1: rights anymore on treading copper. Is that a fair wealth again?
Speaker 1: I think, well, there's certain extent. Yes, I think there's
Speaker 1: definitely going to be some increased demand for commodities. I
Speaker 1: mean it will vary from um one commodity to another.
Speaker 1: But but the bottom line is that we are talking
Speaker 1: about a country who has been shut from the rest
Speaker 1: of the world. Were about for more than one thousand days.
Speaker 1: Of course there was trade going on, But right now
Speaker 1: I think there's going to be some significant aspects of
Speaker 1: pentempt demand that are going to start showing, and therefore
Speaker 1: Chinese imports and therefore upside pressure on commodities is going
Speaker 1: to manifest. This is the third year of pandemic economics.
Speaker 1: That's what Tom Das and I have been sold about
Speaker 1: now for the last couple of weeks. Every single year
Speaker 1: of those three years, particularly the last two, we've got
Speaker 1: rank the consensus to you has been terribly of course,
Speaker 1: can you tell me what you think we're under pricing
Speaker 1: right now with regards to Chin to reopening? Well, I could,
Speaker 1: I could see both ways. I don't think right now
Speaker 1: if you look in the currency market that we have
Speaker 1: reached levels that pricing fully relatively smooth Chinese reopening. For example,
Speaker 1: if I look at the euro dollar market, arrestimates fair
Speaker 1: value between one seventeen where one or nine, very important level.
Speaker 1: I suspect if, sorry when more than if we break it,
Speaker 1: we're going to see a lot of real money demand
Speaker 1: and demand from corporates as well. It's going to push
Speaker 1: it higher. And historically what you tend to see is
Speaker 1: that when you are in periods of a significant undervaluation
Speaker 1: and then you start correct towards fair value, you don't
Speaker 1: just correct there and you sit there. We typically overstood it.
Speaker 1: So my point here is that I think we still
Speaker 1: have some way to go in order to reprice um
Speaker 1: the Chinese reopening. How much of an imflationery impulse do
Speaker 1: we import from China? And see another states this is
Speaker 1: uh in China. I think China is going to be
Speaker 1: much more relevant for Europe compared to for example, the
Speaker 1: the US. But I think this is an element about
Speaker 1: the upside pressure on commodity price and therefore inflation that
Speaker 1: has come up very frequently with clients. And my only
Speaker 1: observation to this is that what is driving inflation is
Speaker 1: extremely important. So um in twenty one and parts of
Speaker 1: two it will supply side driven. So you had muted
Speaker 1: domestic activity and you had inflation squeezing and already damaged
Speaker 1: the economy. But this time around, if inflation is being
Speaker 1: driven by the demand side of the economy, by Chinese imports,
Speaker 1: then it will still create challenges for central banks. But
Speaker 1: it's not the same gameplay. It's a more traditional way
Speaker 1: of dealing with inflation. You have increased demand and therefore
Speaker 1: you have some side pressures on prices and that prompts
Speaker 1: central bank response, but not to the extent that it
Speaker 1: will squeeze incomes as it did during the course of
Speaker 1: should lead to stronger currency in Europe. So you're at
Speaker 1: all right now one or nine? Can you run me
Speaker 1: through some numbers what you're thinking about it in the
Speaker 1: next three six months? Right? So I think one or
Speaker 1: nine is, as I said before, is very important. I
Speaker 1: think potentially next week is going to be a catalyst
Speaker 1: for the euro to break invincingly higher. And I say
Speaker 1: this because I expect this bit to be hawkish, and
Speaker 1: I think the Fed will deliver twenty five basis points,
Speaker 1: although there are some focus risks into that meeting as well.
Speaker 1: Um and if we break that, it will become particularly
Speaker 1: painful for a really money account of corporates who have
Speaker 1: not participated UM in the big move to chase the
Speaker 1: currency higher. And I think then you know, we could
Speaker 1: converge to one fifteen and even potentially higher, absent of
Speaker 1: course black swans. I mean, there are a lot of
Speaker 1: risks into that sun. Outside the studios, this was great.
Speaker 1: The sarchin act is there? What are nine looking for
Speaker 1: a break that potentially Tom Gun it's the e CP
Speaker 1: next week. Hawaen Becker is where the senior research Analystic
Speaker 1: cow And Bureau describes it. She and Kivan Rumor owned
Speaker 1: the franchise for decades of cow And and she provides
Speaker 1: leadership forward. Helloine, I've got an answer. I use as
Speaker 1: a proxy New York to Paris. But even that price
Speaker 1: is down from the insanity of six months or eight
Speaker 1: months ago. It's still stupid money, but it's less stupid?
Speaker 1: Is international starting to rationalize in the aviation business, we're
Speaker 1: seeing um tom very strong international business travel um less
Speaker 1: so maybe on the leisure but I suspect leisure travel
Speaker 1: will pick up um mid February and then increased through
Speaker 1: the summer months. The demand is still very strong, and
Speaker 1: the further we get away from the more comfortable people
Speaker 1: feel about going outside the country. Elline, how much is
Speaker 1: this a story of international travel just to compensate for
Speaker 1: what we saw versus a whole l returned to the
Speaker 1: way it used to be. Yeah, I think, um so.
Speaker 1: I think there are two things going on here. The
Speaker 1: first is with respect to supply chain. Are supply chain
Speaker 1: issues right from from Boeing and Airbus being delayed on
Speaker 1: delivering aircraft so you don't have a lot of capacity
Speaker 1: coming in, which props up price. But then on on
Speaker 1: international business travel, um after all these zoom calls and
Speaker 1: people taking calls at midnight or one in the morning,
Speaker 1: I did a call with a client earlier this week
Speaker 1: and it was midnight in his time zone. I don't
Speaker 1: think that can continue indefinitely. And I think you're going
Speaker 1: to see an increase in international business travel this year
Speaker 1: and especially you know, as more people feel comfortable traveling
Speaker 1: and COVID becomes people continue to think of it as
Speaker 1: being more endemic. So Helen, what is the new model?
Speaker 1: Is it basically having half the plane is business travel
Speaker 1: and the rest sandwiched into the back as you try
Speaker 1: to get some sort of profitability overseas and then domestic
Speaker 1: travel just the ongoing mess that it has been. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so I think, um to your point, I think the
Speaker 1: front of the cabin is going to get bigger in
Speaker 1: the sense of business travel that that cabin, and then
Speaker 1: you're going to get a bigger premium economy. And when
Speaker 1: you're thinking about long haul, it's the old lean back seats,
Speaker 1: the reclining seats versus the life flats um and then
Speaker 1: you're going to get a smaller section in main cabin
Speaker 1: And what we're seeing in terms of pricing, to Tom's
Speaker 1: earlier point is the prices that would have been in
Speaker 1: main cabin um before pre pandemic are seemed to be
Speaker 1: a little lower, but prices in premium economy seem to
Speaker 1: be equal to what business travel prices used to be,
Speaker 1: and business seems to be more like the old first
Speaker 1: class pricing. So I feel like the price points are
Speaker 1: going up and um and the mix of shifting, which
Speaker 1: is good, Helene, you're killing me. True story. My father
Speaker 1: died on a twelve hour notice. I had to get
Speaker 1: on a plane and I flew economy for the first
Speaker 1: time since time began. The seat was so small. I
Speaker 1: flew Hallane to Portland, Oregon NonStop, sitting on the edge
Speaker 1: of my seat. But the whole So then there's this issue, right,
Speaker 1: I've travel economy all the time, and there's the economy,
Speaker 1: and then there's the economy where you have to bi
Speaker 1: a soda for your kids if you want them to
Speaker 1: have any sort of drink on a four hour flight.
Speaker 1: I'm just wondering, Helene, for the discounters, whether it's Jet Blue,
Speaker 1: which is traditionally the front of that, or Frontier, which
Speaker 1: I was talking about, what's the future for them if
Speaker 1: the prospects of domestic travel seemed to be diminishing with
Speaker 1: the economic cycle. Yeah, so so, Tom, I'm sorry about
Speaker 1: your dad first. But the other thing, in terms of
Speaker 1: the the outlook for for those guys, Um, they're gonna
Speaker 1: slow their growth. They're gonna have no choice. They're not able.
Speaker 1: It's it's not that the hiring part. It's the retention
Speaker 1: part that's an issue. And then the aircraft. They have
Speaker 1: to keep growing UM and they can't get the aircraft.
Speaker 1: So I think there's always going to be a market
Speaker 1: for a deep discounter, right, there's some market if you
Speaker 1: think about hotel change, there's the market for Ritz and
Speaker 1: there's a market for Motel six UM, and so I
Speaker 1: think you're always going to have that differential. And I
Speaker 1: think people will who have got used to traveling will
Speaker 1: continue to want to travel because that's UM, that's what
Speaker 1: they do m versus buying lots and lots of things
Speaker 1: that they don't really need anymore. So I think we're
Speaker 1: I think those guys will be okay. I just think
Speaker 1: the growth will slow and I think American, Delta and
Speaker 1: United are going to see very strong international growth and
Speaker 1: growth in business this year. And I would just pivot
Speaker 1: as I'm thinking about investments to those names. Holding Becker
Speaker 1: with his folks on radio and television, thrilled they have
Speaker 1: you here on a big, big earnings day. She is
Speaker 1: with count Helene. Just for the record, I keep track
Speaker 1: of the business to economy ratio of a given flight
Speaker 1: from l A. It was nine to one which I
Speaker 1: never thought i'd see nine dollars of business ticket for
Speaker 1: one dollar of economy. It's down to six point three
Speaker 1: to one right now. Is my busy con ratio. That's
Speaker 1: Newark to to U L A X and everybody else
Speaker 1: has their other ratios. With that said, what is the
Speaker 1: domestic constraint for Kirby, for Bastion and the rest is there?
Speaker 1: Is there constraint. Gates is a new airports like the
Speaker 1: magnificent New LaGuardia. What's their biggest headache to get us
Speaker 1: back to some kind of normal thirty six months from now. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So the biggest one is infrastructure issues and the fact
Speaker 1: that at the busiest airports there's just no space physically
Speaker 1: to put more aircraft and we're not building more runways
Speaker 1: that you know, look at you look at Newark Airport,
Speaker 1: um the two parallel runways are too close together to
Speaker 1: allow for simultaneous operations on bad weather day, so that
Speaker 1: airport wines up taking extensive delays. And and weather is
Speaker 1: in blue sky every day you have rain as you
Speaker 1: did yesterday, and operations per hour decline, and then infrastructure
Speaker 1: issues there. The government doesn't want to talk about this,
Speaker 1: but they did not train air traffic controllers for eighteen
Speaker 1: months during the pandemic, and you've got a lot of
Speaker 1: controllers retiring. And I get very passionate about this because
Speaker 1: the airlines have a hard time talking about it because
Speaker 1: obviously they're they're they're dependent on the government for a GC.
Speaker 1: But the FAA should handle safety and security and and
Speaker 1: and private corporation should handle air traffic control, and you'd
Speaker 1: get more investment and we'd be in the twenty first
Speaker 1: century instead of in the century with the righters in
Speaker 1: North Carolina. Holy one final question, John from London emails
Speaker 1: in and says, what's your single best buy? What's your
Speaker 1: single best buy right now at Cowen Yeah, Um United
Speaker 1: u A L is our top pick. UM. It out
Speaker 1: performed in two and we think because of their international exposure,
Speaker 1: it will outperform again. In a Becker Thank you so much,
Speaker 1: terrific brief there on a day of earning. She is
Speaker 1: with cow And. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple,
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Speaker 1: Tom Keane and this is Bloomberg