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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Faroll and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day

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Speaker 1: for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and

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Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. On This

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Speaker 1: American Economy, Lindsay peggs it joins US chief economist is Stephile. Lindsay,

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Speaker 1: are we near recession? I think we are teetering towards

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Speaker 1: a recession now. Of course, the fourth quarter number does

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Speaker 1: look pretty good, particularly against the backdrop of an even

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Speaker 1: stronger rise in the third quarter, But when we look

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Speaker 1: at what's happening with the consumer, which is the backbone

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Speaker 1: of the US economy, we are seeing a clear loss

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Speaker 1: of momentum. And without the consumer happy and healthy out

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Speaker 1: in the marketplace, we simply cannot expect to maintain positive growth,

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Speaker 1: let alone more robust growth similar to what we saw

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Speaker 1: this morning. So I do think that as the Fed

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Speaker 1: continues to raise rates, savings are depleted, real income remains

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Speaker 1: negative fiscal support fades, there is going to be an

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Speaker 1: additional burden on the consumer that leads us into or

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Speaker 1: near negative growth. Lindsay Long, you're going far away under

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Speaker 1: the religion and the kool ai of Peter Lynch of

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Speaker 1: Fidelity Domestic final sales reign Supreme. Michael McKee just mentioned

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Speaker 1: that that trend, that tendency there away from the back

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Speaker 1: and forth of imports, exports and the rest is a

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Speaker 1: pretty Mouldi number. Do you have a belief here that

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Speaker 1: a slowdown in domestic final sales brings on the reality

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Speaker 1: of recession. It certainly does, because just like when we

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Speaker 1: look at inflation, we strip out the more volatile components

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Speaker 1: of food and energy. That's what we're doing when we

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Speaker 1: look at that real final sales number to domestic purchasers,

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Speaker 1: were stripping out the volatility of inventory. We're stripping out

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Speaker 1: the volatility of trade. And what we see is a

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Speaker 1: more clear defined downward trajectory of growth slowing from up

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Speaker 1: near four percent to down here one percent at the

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Speaker 1: end of the year. Again, still there was enough resilience

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Speaker 1: in the US economy to maintain positive momentum in Q four.

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Speaker 1: But the bigger question is are we able to maintain

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Speaker 1: that momentum as we turn the calendar page, and most

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Speaker 1: of the data suggests that we do not lendy? Do

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Speaker 1: you think that the market is wrong because we are

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Speaker 1: seeing consumer stocks do really well as they look forward.

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Speaker 1: I think the market is severely under appreciating the amount

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Speaker 1: of tightening that the FED is going to have to

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Speaker 1: embark on in order to reinstate price stability, and thus

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Speaker 1: under appreciating the amount of pressure that is going to

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Speaker 1: be put on consumers and businesses and the overall economy.

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Speaker 1: When do you start to see the data to actually

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Speaker 1: prove that before thinking, well, maybe the FED is going

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Speaker 1: to be on the side, you do you see inflation

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Speaker 1: coming down and we're going to get that soft landing

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Speaker 1: that everybody is talking about. I think we're already seeing

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Speaker 1: it in the data when we look at retail sales

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Speaker 1: negative in November, negative in December, consumer spending still positive.

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Speaker 1: But when we look at overall goods and services, that

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Speaker 1: too is trending down. Production now in in contractionary territory

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Speaker 1: housing taking a sizeable hit. There are multiple, multiple data

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Speaker 1: points that are suggesting the U S economy is not

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Speaker 1: going to be able to maintain this momentum in the

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Speaker 1: new year, and Lindsey, thank you so much. Lindsay with

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Speaker 1: stiff step right to it now as we speak to

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Speaker 1: liz Ane Saunders about the reality of the equity markets,

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Speaker 1: would take a broader view with Philip Camporel portfolio Manager,

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Speaker 1: JP Morgan Asset Management this morning, I love, love, love

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Speaker 1: your notes, single sentences, observations, weaving it together. And your

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Speaker 1: major weave is the epsilon in the back of the equation.

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Speaker 1: Uncertainty is going to be less uncertain and we're gonna

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Speaker 1: get to certainty. When does J. Powell have certainty? He

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Speaker 1: has it right now, Tom, I and I think the

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Speaker 1: key to our view is, first of all, good riddance

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Speaker 1: to two thousand twenty two. Because as an ascid allocator, Tom,

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Speaker 1: what Powell and his friends did last year was create really,

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Speaker 1: really tough ways to manage risk. As an ascid allocator,

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Speaker 1: we love that if stocks go down, you better have

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Speaker 1: bonds as your defense on the other side. And the

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Speaker 1: most risky balanced funds last year were the more conservative ones.

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Speaker 1: And when do we ever say that? Right? So, the

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Speaker 1: thirteen percent draw down in the Barkley's a glad The

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg gagery and I'm sorry, was was the was the

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Speaker 1: worst to hear that we've ever had. Now going forward,

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Speaker 1: you asked me the question when does Powell have certainty?

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Speaker 1: It's right now because they're going twenty five basis points

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Speaker 1: in February one, and we have been able to say

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Speaker 1: that for a long shirt that Lisa showed there, i'm

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Speaker 1: PC inflation. We see that as we see that, I'm sorry,

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Speaker 1: magnificently shows the one off of this pandemic. Ye does

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Speaker 1: JP Morgan across all your platforms suggest we are beyond

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Speaker 1: the pandemic or be on the pandemic highs and inflation

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Speaker 1: for sure? Right, So that's why we're going to this

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Speaker 1: step down in the aggressive in the aggressive tightening sense. Tom.

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Speaker 1: Last time I was here, it was at the end

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Speaker 1: of you know, the at the end of the third quarter,

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Speaker 1: and I told you we had a record high in

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Speaker 1: our fund in cash. That is not the case anymore.

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Speaker 1: We are putting money to work all over the world.

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Speaker 1: We only have two percent in cash right now. We're

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Speaker 1: stopping short of saying that we're going to see an

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Speaker 1: earnings acceleration or or reign every ignition of the cycle,

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Speaker 1: but we are putting money to work in the U S. Specifically,

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Speaker 1: we have a twenty percent allocation to invest in great

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Speaker 1: corporate bonds. That's the most we've ever had in our portfolio.

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Speaker 1: And we have about a nine percent relative value trade

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Speaker 1: between US stocks and non U S stocks and we

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Speaker 1: we haven't had that since two thousand seventeen. Tom like,

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Speaker 1: this is about being active and taking advantage of opportunities. Again,

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Speaker 1: after last year, invest in great bonds in the US

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Speaker 1: have gained about four percent so far this year. That

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Speaker 1: is akin to what we've seen in the SMP five hundred.

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Speaker 1: At what point do you know the trade is up,

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Speaker 1: that the gains are in that basically you've been on it,

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Speaker 1: You've written a good ride, it's over. Yeah, So Lisa,

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Speaker 1: we are we are looking for it more for carry.

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Speaker 1: What does that mean? It means a yield story. If

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Speaker 1: we were really optimistic about the US, we would be

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Speaker 1: in the US equity market because we have that option

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Speaker 1: as a balanced portfolio manager, rather than in invest in

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Speaker 1: grade credits. So the credit story, Lisa, is to get

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Speaker 1: us more yield than our index. What I'd say where

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Speaker 1: we're trying to get total return is the non US

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Speaker 1: equity equity market, So the way that we would go

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Speaker 1: back into US equity would be Okay, core PC is

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Speaker 1: falling like a rock. The federal funds rate doesn't need

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Speaker 1: to be a five percent anymore. And what the FETE

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Speaker 1: is saying for two twenty four is going to happen

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Speaker 1: in the back half of this year. That is not

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Speaker 1: what we're saying. Does that mean that in the US

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Speaker 1: when people do start going back, energy is going to

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Speaker 1: be the leadership continue to uh sort of reductive last

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Speaker 1: year because that is also a yield story that is

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Speaker 1: also a dividend play. Yeah. So, um, I think if

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Speaker 1: people were to go back into the US equity market,

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Speaker 1: it wouldn't be in those yield places. It would be

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Speaker 1: in the total return beta stories. You know that the

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Speaker 1: growth stories that were played last year, which interest rates

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Speaker 1: moving high here. So when people continue to go back

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Speaker 1: into the US equity market, I think it will be

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Speaker 1: at a time when growth stocks are back, because we're

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Speaker 1: not again we're not talking about a re acceleration of growth.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about a more subdued growth environment. And then

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Speaker 1: in that environment, I think to make keptech stocks can

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Speaker 1: do pretty well. You talk about core PC dropping like

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Speaker 1: a stone, and there was a mantra or the past decade,

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Speaker 1: don't fight the FED. This year it's fight the FED

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Speaker 1: because the Fed is wrong. Do you buy that they're

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Speaker 1: not wrong? I think they go another fifty basis points

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Speaker 1: and then they go on hold right so that they

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Speaker 1: cut rates by the end of this year, which is

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Speaker 1: what we're seeing. So we're not willing to say that

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Speaker 1: yet least. I think that's a little premature, and I

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Speaker 1: think Jerome Powell, to your question earlier, Tom, I think

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Speaker 1: Jerome Powell may push back on that with open mouth

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Speaker 1: operations on February one, which could be a risk, which, again, Lisa,

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Speaker 1: is about why we're more in the I G credit

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Speaker 1: side than in US equity. The opportunity for equity is overseas.

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Speaker 1: There's a constant theme of the people that we have

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Speaker 1: conversation with that the market is out front of the FED.

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Speaker 1: What are JP Morgan clients ex really doing? Are they

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Speaker 1: are they telling you they want to be in the market,

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Speaker 1: or are they, as a generalization scared stiff. Tom. Every

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Speaker 1: conversation that I'm having right now is about should I

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Speaker 1: be looking outside the US? And it's like it's like

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Speaker 1: zone because We've been asking people to do that for

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Speaker 1: a long time, and right now I think the opportunity

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Speaker 1: is listen. As Yogi Bearras said, you'd rather be lucky

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Speaker 1: than good. And in Europe they have a three standard

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Speaker 1: professor at for when you come to the road exactly.

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Speaker 1: So Europe at TOM you had a three standard deviation

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Speaker 1: warm winner. This is the warmest winner they've had a decade.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned that, and you know we just did with

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Speaker 1: Damian says are e M commodities, copper, Chili and paces out.

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Speaker 1: It's a three standard deviation move negative to standard deviation,

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Speaker 1: strong dollar week, Chile and pay so bombing through to

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Speaker 1: a plus one? Does e M pause here or is

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Speaker 1: there an urgency to get on board e M and international?

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Speaker 1: So listen. E M is the most volatile asset class

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Speaker 1: on planet right that we deal with, So I think

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Speaker 1: the ways that you manage risk in EM we're just

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Speaker 1: buying calls on the index. So if it goes up

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Speaker 1: like it did this year, we're going up with the market.

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Speaker 1: But if the market tanks, then we're gonna we have

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Speaker 1: we have a limited downside without premium, so we're buying

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Speaker 1: calls on the That's the way that we're controlling for

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Speaker 1: near term volatility. But remember in two thousand one, when

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Speaker 1: everybody was talking about how great the equity market was doing,

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Speaker 1: e M got crushed in two So there's still even

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Speaker 1: with the rally of value, a longer term valuation component

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Speaker 1: run out of time. I want to talk to you

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Speaker 1: about Toyota and investment in Japan. You gotta come back

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Speaker 1: and do that, you know, you know, bring you a

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Speaker 1: Jampan his team in Toyota, Lisa Toyota down in US

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Speaker 1: dollar terms from the beginning of last year, like twelve

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Speaker 1: months train we can talk about him coming up because

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Speaker 1: bank in Japan is even moving phil temporally. Thank you

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Speaker 1: so much that j people. We're going to asset management

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Speaker 1: wanting you about this one episode. I think European effect

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Speaker 1: strategy city you do that for cilious. Let's talk about effects,

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Speaker 1: and let's talk about a difference right now between people

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Speaker 1: constructive on the U S economy and people who are

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Speaker 1: less so. The people who are less so are clinging

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Speaker 1: to sub fifty pm mice the people who are constructive.

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Speaker 1: Look at a jobless claims data which comes out in

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Speaker 1: about two AUS thirty minutes, which is in and around

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Speaker 1: two hundred thousand. Which one is it? Well, I think,

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Speaker 1: as it frequently is the situation, we're somewhere in between.

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Speaker 1: There is a slowing in the U. S. Economy, and

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Speaker 1: there's definite that's definitely visible in the manufacturing sector, especially

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Speaker 1: as you mentioned in the soft surday they did. But

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Speaker 1: then again one has to contrast this with an extremely

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Speaker 1: tight and a historically tight labor market. So therefore this

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Speaker 1: is not going to be an easy one for the FED.

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Speaker 1: I mean, currently the market is pricing four point nine percent,

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Speaker 1: it's called it five ternal rate. I think we could

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Speaker 1: reprise a bit higher um, but to the extent that

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Speaker 1: we only reprice modestly higher. I don't think that, say,

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Speaker 1: twenty five basis points of repricing higher. It's going to

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Speaker 1: be neither here nor there for the dollar. Because I

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Speaker 1: think we've switched regime. The fair has become a far

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Speaker 1: maturing theme. We're getting close to the peak. And now

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Speaker 1: the driving sayies global growth expectations, and this has been

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Speaker 1: you know, reignited by the Chinese reopening, and this is

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Speaker 1: what is driving the markets. If you if you approach

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Speaker 1: this statistically, you can actually say that during the first quarter,

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Speaker 1: the first three quarters of twenty two US yields explained

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Speaker 1: around the dollar variation. Right now they explain about fifteen percent,

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Speaker 1: whereas if you go back and you look at underlying

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Speaker 1: fundamental surveys, they are now in the lead. And that's

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Speaker 1: because expectations are being related higher. So I'm not trieding

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Speaker 1: rights anymore on treading copper. Is that a fair wealth again?

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Speaker 1: I think, well, there's certain extent. Yes, I think there's

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Speaker 1: definitely going to be some increased demand for commodities. I

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Speaker 1: mean it will vary from um one commodity to another.

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Speaker 1: But but the bottom line is that we are talking

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Speaker 1: about a country who has been shut from the rest

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Speaker 1: of the world. Were about for more than one thousand days.

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Speaker 1: Of course there was trade going on, But right now

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Speaker 1: I think there's going to be some significant aspects of

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Speaker 1: pentempt demand that are going to start showing, and therefore

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Speaker 1: Chinese imports and therefore upside pressure on commodities is going

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Speaker 1: to manifest. This is the third year of pandemic economics.

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Speaker 1: That's what Tom Das and I have been sold about

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Speaker 1: now for the last couple of weeks. Every single year

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Speaker 1: of those three years, particularly the last two, we've got

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Speaker 1: rank the consensus to you has been terribly of course,

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Speaker 1: can you tell me what you think we're under pricing

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Speaker 1: right now with regards to Chin to reopening? Well, I could,

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Speaker 1: I could see both ways. I don't think right now

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Speaker 1: if you look in the currency market that we have

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Speaker 1: reached levels that pricing fully relatively smooth Chinese reopening. For example,

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Speaker 1: if I look at the euro dollar market, arrestimates fair

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Speaker 1: value between one seventeen where one or nine, very important level.

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Speaker 1: I suspect if, sorry when more than if we break it,

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Speaker 1: we're going to see a lot of real money demand

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Speaker 1: and demand from corporates as well. It's going to push

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Speaker 1: it higher. And historically what you tend to see is

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Speaker 1: that when you are in periods of a significant undervaluation

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Speaker 1: and then you start correct towards fair value, you don't

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Speaker 1: just correct there and you sit there. We typically overstood it.

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Speaker 1: So my point here is that I think we still

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Speaker 1: have some way to go in order to reprice um

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Speaker 1: the Chinese reopening. How much of an imflationery impulse do

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Speaker 1: we import from China? And see another states this is

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Speaker 1: uh in China. I think China is going to be

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Speaker 1: much more relevant for Europe compared to for example, the

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Speaker 1: the US. But I think this is an element about

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Speaker 1: the upside pressure on commodity price and therefore inflation that

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Speaker 1: has come up very frequently with clients. And my only

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Speaker 1: observation to this is that what is driving inflation is

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Speaker 1: extremely important. So um in twenty one and parts of

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Speaker 1: two it will supply side driven. So you had muted

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Speaker 1: domestic activity and you had inflation squeezing and already damaged

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Speaker 1: the economy. But this time around, if inflation is being

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Speaker 1: driven by the demand side of the economy, by Chinese imports,

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Speaker 1: then it will still create challenges for central banks. But

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Speaker 1: it's not the same gameplay. It's a more traditional way

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Speaker 1: of dealing with inflation. You have increased demand and therefore

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Speaker 1: you have some side pressures on prices and that prompts

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Speaker 1: central bank response, but not to the extent that it

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Speaker 1: will squeeze incomes as it did during the course of

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Speaker 1: should lead to stronger currency in Europe. So you're at

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Speaker 1: all right now one or nine? Can you run me

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Speaker 1: through some numbers what you're thinking about it in the

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Speaker 1: next three six months? Right? So I think one or

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Speaker 1: nine is, as I said before, is very important. I

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Speaker 1: think potentially next week is going to be a catalyst

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Speaker 1: for the euro to break invincingly higher. And I say

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Speaker 1: this because I expect this bit to be hawkish, and

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Speaker 1: I think the Fed will deliver twenty five basis points,

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Speaker 1: although there are some focus risks into that meeting as well.

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Speaker 1: Um and if we break that, it will become particularly

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Speaker 1: painful for a really money account of corporates who have

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Speaker 1: not participated UM in the big move to chase the

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Speaker 1: currency higher. And I think then you know, we could

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Speaker 1: converge to one fifteen and even potentially higher, absent of

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Speaker 1: course black swans. I mean, there are a lot of

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Speaker 1: risks into that sun. Outside the studios, this was great.

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Speaker 1: The sarchin act is there? What are nine looking for

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Speaker 1: a break that potentially Tom Gun it's the e CP

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Speaker 1: next week. Hawaen Becker is where the senior research Analystic

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Speaker 1: cow And Bureau describes it. She and Kivan Rumor owned

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Speaker 1: the franchise for decades of cow And and she provides

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Speaker 1: leadership forward. Helloine, I've got an answer. I use as

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Speaker 1: a proxy New York to Paris. But even that price

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Speaker 1: is down from the insanity of six months or eight

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Speaker 1: months ago. It's still stupid money, but it's less stupid?

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Speaker 1: Is international starting to rationalize in the aviation business, we're

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Speaker 1: seeing um tom very strong international business travel um less

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Speaker 1: so maybe on the leisure but I suspect leisure travel

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Speaker 1: will pick up um mid February and then increased through

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Speaker 1: the summer months. The demand is still very strong, and

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Speaker 1: the further we get away from the more comfortable people

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Speaker 1: feel about going outside the country. Elline, how much is

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Speaker 1: this a story of international travel just to compensate for

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Speaker 1: what we saw versus a whole l returned to the

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Speaker 1: way it used to be. Yeah, I think, um so.

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Speaker 1: I think there are two things going on here. The

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Speaker 1: first is with respect to supply chain. Are supply chain

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Speaker 1: issues right from from Boeing and Airbus being delayed on

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Speaker 1: delivering aircraft so you don't have a lot of capacity

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Speaker 1: coming in, which props up price. But then on on

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Speaker 1: international business travel, um after all these zoom calls and

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Speaker 1: people taking calls at midnight or one in the morning,

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Speaker 1: I did a call with a client earlier this week

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Speaker 1: and it was midnight in his time zone. I don't

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Speaker 1: think that can continue indefinitely. And I think you're going

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Speaker 1: to see an increase in international business travel this year

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Speaker 1: and especially you know, as more people feel comfortable traveling

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Speaker 1: and COVID becomes people continue to think of it as

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Speaker 1: being more endemic. So Helen, what is the new model?

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Speaker 1: Is it basically having half the plane is business travel

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Speaker 1: and the rest sandwiched into the back as you try

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Speaker 1: to get some sort of profitability overseas and then domestic

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Speaker 1: travel just the ongoing mess that it has been. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I think, um to your point, I think the

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Speaker 1: front of the cabin is going to get bigger in

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Speaker 1: the sense of business travel that that cabin, and then

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Speaker 1: you're going to get a bigger premium economy. And when

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Speaker 1: you're thinking about long haul, it's the old lean back seats,

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Speaker 1: the reclining seats versus the life flats um and then

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Speaker 1: you're going to get a smaller section in main cabin

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Speaker 1: And what we're seeing in terms of pricing, to Tom's

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Speaker 1: earlier point is the prices that would have been in

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Speaker 1: main cabin um before pre pandemic are seemed to be

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Speaker 1: a little lower, but prices in premium economy seem to

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Speaker 1: be equal to what business travel prices used to be,

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Speaker 1: and business seems to be more like the old first

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Speaker 1: class pricing. So I feel like the price points are

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Speaker 1: going up and um and the mix of shifting, which

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Speaker 1: is good, Helene, you're killing me. True story. My father

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Speaker 1: died on a twelve hour notice. I had to get

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Speaker 1: on a plane and I flew economy for the first

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Speaker 1: time since time began. The seat was so small. I

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Speaker 1: flew Hallane to Portland, Oregon NonStop, sitting on the edge

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Speaker 1: of my seat. But the whole So then there's this issue, right,

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Speaker 1: I've travel economy all the time, and there's the economy,

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Speaker 1: and then there's the economy where you have to bi

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Speaker 1: a soda for your kids if you want them to

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Speaker 1: have any sort of drink on a four hour flight.

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Speaker 1: I'm just wondering, Helene, for the discounters, whether it's Jet Blue,

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00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 1: which is traditionally the front of that, or Frontier, which

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Speaker 1: I was talking about, what's the future for them if

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Speaker 1: the prospects of domestic travel seemed to be diminishing with

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Speaker 1: the economic cycle. Yeah, so so, Tom, I'm sorry about

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Speaker 1: your dad first. But the other thing, in terms of

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Speaker 1: the the outlook for for those guys, Um, they're gonna

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00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 1: slow their growth. They're gonna have no choice. They're not able.

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Speaker 1: It's it's not that the hiring part. It's the retention

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Speaker 1: part that's an issue. And then the aircraft. They have

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Speaker 1: to keep growing UM and they can't get the aircraft.

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Speaker 1: So I think there's always going to be a market

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Speaker 1: for a deep discounter, right, there's some market if you

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Speaker 1: think about hotel change, there's the market for Ritz and

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00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:22,320
Speaker 1: there's a market for Motel six UM, and so I

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00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 1: think you're always going to have that differential. And I

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Speaker 1: think people will who have got used to traveling will

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Speaker 1: continue to want to travel because that's UM, that's what

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00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,160
Speaker 1: they do m versus buying lots and lots of things

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00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 1: that they don't really need anymore. So I think we're

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00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,239
Speaker 1: I think those guys will be okay. I just think

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00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,879
Speaker 1: the growth will slow and I think American, Delta and

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00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 1: United are going to see very strong international growth and

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00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 1: growth in business this year. And I would just pivot

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Speaker 1: as I'm thinking about investments to those names. Holding Becker

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Speaker 1: with his folks on radio and television, thrilled they have

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Speaker 1: you here on a big, big earnings day. She is

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Speaker 1: with count Helene. Just for the record, I keep track

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Speaker 1: of the business to economy ratio of a given flight

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Speaker 1: from l A. It was nine to one which I

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00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 1: never thought i'd see nine dollars of business ticket for

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00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 1: one dollar of economy. It's down to six point three

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00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:16,120
Speaker 1: to one right now. Is my busy con ratio. That's

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00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 1: Newark to to U L A X and everybody else

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00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 1: has their other ratios. With that said, what is the

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00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 1: domestic constraint for Kirby, for Bastion and the rest is there?

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00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 1: Is there constraint. Gates is a new airports like the

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Speaker 1: magnificent New LaGuardia. What's their biggest headache to get us

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00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 1: back to some kind of normal thirty six months from now. Yeah,

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00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:45,399
Speaker 1: So the biggest one is infrastructure issues and the fact

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Speaker 1: that at the busiest airports there's just no space physically

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00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 1: to put more aircraft and we're not building more runways

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00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,439
Speaker 1: that you know, look at you look at Newark Airport,

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00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 1: um the two parallel runways are too close together to

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00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 1: allow for simultaneous operations on bad weather day, so that

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00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 1: airport wines up taking extensive delays. And and weather is

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00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 1: in blue sky every day you have rain as you

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00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 1: did yesterday, and operations per hour decline, and then infrastructure

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00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 1: issues there. The government doesn't want to talk about this,

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00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 1: but they did not train air traffic controllers for eighteen

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00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 1: months during the pandemic, and you've got a lot of

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Speaker 1: controllers retiring. And I get very passionate about this because

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00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 1: the airlines have a hard time talking about it because

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Speaker 1: obviously they're they're they're dependent on the government for a GC.

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00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 1: But the FAA should handle safety and security and and

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00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: and private corporation should handle air traffic control, and you'd

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00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 1: get more investment and we'd be in the twenty first

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00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 1: century instead of in the century with the righters in

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Speaker 1: North Carolina. Holy one final question, John from London emails

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00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,239
Speaker 1: in and says, what's your single best buy? What's your

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00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 1: single best buy right now at Cowen Yeah, Um United

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00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 1: u A L is our top pick. UM. It out

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00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 1: performed in two and we think because of their international exposure,

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00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 1: it will outperform again. In a Becker Thank you so much,

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00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 1: terrific brief there on a day of earning. She is

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00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 1: with cow And. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple,

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00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:18,120
Speaker 1: Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live

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00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 1: every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com.

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00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 1: The I Heart Radio app Tune in and the Bloomberg

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00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 1: Business app. You can watch us live. I'm Bloomberg Television

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00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm

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00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 1: Tom Keane and this is Bloomberg