1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube's. 6 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 2: Gonna right to Susan Spence. She's the chair of ISM Manufacturing. 7 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 2: Susan talk to us about this. ISM Manufacturing came out 8 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 2: at forty eight point five. The consensus was forty nine 9 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 2: point five. Tell us what's going on? 10 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 3: Good morning, Thank you for having me on. 11 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 4: You know, unfortunately we have another month of contraction abouzero 12 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,159 Speaker 4: point two percent lower than last month, so forty eight 13 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 4: point five. 14 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 3: We are absolutely under consensus. 15 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 4: What we're seeing and what our panelists are telling us, 16 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 4: of course, is a continued issue with uncertainty in the 17 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 4: market driven by terrorists. So this month, if I can 18 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 4: talk about demand, outputs, and input, it's demand which is 19 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 4: new orders, customer inventory, backlog, and new export orders. Three 20 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 4: of those four indicators continue to contract. Backlog and new 21 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 4: orders contracted a bit slower this month at a slower rate. 22 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 3: New export orders. 23 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 4: Not surprisingly took another plunge in an accelerated reduction at 24 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 4: a three percentage points lower. So, in our view, the 25 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 4: lack of new orders driven by that uncertain demand from 26 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 4: the marketplace demand, the conflicts of who's going to pay 27 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 4: for the tariff costs. The customer index for inventories does 28 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 4: remain low. 29 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 3: We always consider that positive. 30 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 4: At some point customers have to reorder, and so we're 31 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:44,320 Speaker 4: hoping to see that. 32 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 3: But that continues to contract. 33 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 4: So our in our survey, eighty six percent of the 34 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 4: general comments from our panelists were about the terriffs. 35 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 3: It was eighty two percent last month. It just continues 36 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 3: to grow. It's not gotten any better, and certainty is 37 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 3: even worse. 38 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 5: Susan, Susan, do you get the sense that if some 39 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 5: of the tariff headwinds were removed, things get better quickly 40 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 5: or is this sort of permanent confusion in the manufacturing sector. 41 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 3: It's not permanent, but it's not quick. 42 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 4: So we think if tomorrow everything was settled, and of 43 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 4: course it won't be. 44 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 3: We think we're in this for at least the summer. 45 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 3: It's going to take some time. We already have. 46 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 4: Some inventory at the higher prices customers, again, is indicated 47 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 4: by the survey results. 48 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 3: Are hesitating to order, and so that is driven down. Production, 49 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,800 Speaker 3: backlog is down, and I'll talk about production and employment 50 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 3: as well. So we're in it for a bit. The 51 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 3: best thing that could happen is certainty. 52 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 4: And then my personal belief is it's still going to 53 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 4: take a few months for folks to not wait for 54 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:51,679 Speaker 4: the other shoe to drop. 55 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 2: If you will, Susan, thank you so much for give 56 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 2: us a couple of minutes of your time. Susan Spence, 57 00:02:55,880 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 2: Chair for Ism Manufacturing PMI, the Institute for Supply Management, 58 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 2: joining us here. Weaker than expected manufacturing numbers coming out 59 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 2: this month. 60 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 61 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 62 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 63 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 64 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 2: The last time we saw Sam Fazzelli, who's the director 65 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 2: of research and does some of the healthcare stuff for 66 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence, he was here in New York and he 67 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 2: was on his way to Chicago to some conference where 68 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 2: a lot of these healthcare folks get together and they 69 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 2: talk about new drugs and new therapies, and he said, 70 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 2: watch out, there's going to be some deals coming out 71 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 2: of there. 72 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 6: Boy was he right. 73 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 2: Santa Fe buying immunology biotech Blueprint for nine point one billion, 74 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 2: Bristol to pay buy in Tech up to eleven billion 75 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 2: dollars for a cancer deal. Moderner is getting some new news. 76 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 2: So we got to get Sam here. He's still in Chicago. 77 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 2: He's at our Chicago office there, Sam, thanks so much 78 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: for joining us here. We've had some deals today in 79 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 2: the healthcare space. Help us think about this centi feed 80 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 2: deal here. Nine point one billion dollars. That seems pretty substantial. 81 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 7: Yeah, well it's more than I have in the back 82 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 7: of my sofa if you like, and you know the 83 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 7: little change that you find there. But this sector needs these. 84 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 7: I mean, we've had a drought of deals since Johnson 85 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 7: and Johnson did interest Sellular Therapeutics, and then we've got 86 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 7: this deal now. And the sector, as I'm sure you've 87 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 7: talked about we've talked about, has been under pressure because 88 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 7: of all the new issues that are being created for 89 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 7: them with the current administration, and that really slowed down 90 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 7: deal making. So it's nice to see this deal happen. 91 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,480 Speaker 7: Not the biggest premium in the world twenty seven billion dollars. 92 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 7: But still, it's nice to see some of these deals happen, 93 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 7: and I think, assuming we don't get another round of 94 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 7: tariffs for farmer drugs and most favored nation conversations turning up, 95 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 7: it might be the beginning of a little renaissance in 96 00:04:59,480 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 7: deal making. 97 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 5: What was the absolute coolest thing that you learned over 98 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 5: the weekend? 99 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 8: I mean, I was. 100 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 5: Floored yesterday I was sitting and thinking of you and 101 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 5: reading all these amazing articles coming out about these amazing 102 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 5: new drugs that could have tremendous effect on cancer. 103 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 8: For example, what was the coolest thing you heard? 104 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, so, Alex, there's been some continued evolution an increase 105 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 7: in opportunities in breast cancer. So AstraZeneca had two presentations 106 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 7: yesterday at what they called plenary sessions, and that's one 107 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 7: of the key areas where I mean the room gets 108 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 7: packed with ten thousand people or whatever the number is. 109 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 7: So they had an update on a breast cancer drug 110 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 7: which is continuing to further expand the options that patients 111 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 7: when it gets approved. If it gets approved, patients have 112 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 7: in treating that disease, which has become something that a 113 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 7: lot of people as long as they're lucky and don't 114 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 7: get the worst kind of it, it can live with 115 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 7: for quite a long time now. And then we had 116 00:05:56,480 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 7: one also from them on gastric This the guest stories 117 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 7: of digital junction disease, which is not one of the 118 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 7: is a bad one and there's not been many therapies there, 119 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 7: and so that was a really good, very good data set, 120 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 7: I have to say, practice changing. And there's a whole 121 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:17,039 Speaker 7: host of phase one, phase two early stage drugs that 122 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 7: look really good. So I'm going to be coming to 123 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 7: this conference for I don't know how many more years 124 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:23,479 Speaker 7: because it's going to keep developing. 125 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 2: Bristol paying Buy and Tech up to eleven point one 126 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 2: billion dollars for cancer deals. What's going on there? 127 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 7: Yeah, up to is the operative word. The actually guaranteed 128 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 7: cash is about three and a half billion dollars, so 129 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 7: about one and a half billion right up front, and 130 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:42,119 Speaker 7: then when the deal closes, and then by twenty twenty 131 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 7: eight another two billion. That's not contingent on any there 132 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 7: are just anniversary payments, payments. So that's pretty good given 133 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:51,719 Speaker 7: that they acquired the asset, amongst the whole host of 134 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 7: other stuff from a Chinese biotech company acquisition by a 135 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,479 Speaker 7: theist only a few months ago, and it's in a 136 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:00,799 Speaker 7: new class of drugs that people have got excited about. 137 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 7: There's Mark that did a deal, There's Summit and Akiso. 138 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 7: Fizer just did a deal on last week, paying one 139 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 7: point two billion dollars for a drug in development, which 140 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 7: we quite like. The data for that was presented here. 141 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 7: So these are drugs that are trying to push the 142 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 7: barrier of what we've been able to achieve, which with 143 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 7: what's called immunotherapy, can you do better? Can you push 144 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 7: more patients to survive longer using these drugs? 145 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 8: What about Oh wow, I just lost my train of thought. 146 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 5: Oh it was there, it was so brilliant, and then 147 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:35,119 Speaker 5: it went away. 148 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 8: Oh I know. Funding, here's my brilliant point. 149 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 5: Government funding for universities that have big medical units. 150 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 8: Like did What were people saying about that? 151 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 7: Yeah, they're not happy. I've talked to a lot of 152 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 7: people here and you know, even my interestingly an uber 153 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 7: driver that I had who does double just doubles up. 154 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 7: She works in a lab that does genomic analysis for 155 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 7: scientists at Northwestern University in Chicago. She said she's noticing 156 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 7: a palpable slowdown in the request she's getting to do 157 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 7: analysis of you know, laboratory analysis because people are uncertain. 158 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 7: It's even got to yuber driver, which is which is 159 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 7: sad now it is it is a problem. People are 160 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 7: worried and will We'll have to see whether philanthropists can 161 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 7: fill the gap. 162 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 2: Sam, So from your conference there in Chicago, what's is 163 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 2: the key focus still cancer or is there other parts 164 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 2: of healthcare that are getting as much I guess attention. 165 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 7: Yeah, but so this is a cancer conference. This is 166 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 7: the biggest cancer conference in the world. People come from 167 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 7: and I have to say there's a palpable increase in 168 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:49,560 Speaker 7: the number of presentations by Chinese scientists, real and companies. Yeah, 169 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 7: every year's got more and more, which is expected. They've 170 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:57,559 Speaker 7: been funding research significantly for the past fifteen twenty years 171 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 7: and this is the fruits of it. The X conference 172 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 7: that's coming up is a also. I don't think it's 173 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,959 Speaker 7: in Chicago, but it's over here somewhere in the US. 174 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 7: Is the American Diabetes That's where you get all the obesity, 175 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 7: liver disease kind of data that that we're also looking 176 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 7: forward to. 177 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 2: All right, Sam, thanks so much for joining us. As always, 178 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 2: Sam Fizzelli, Director of Research for Global and Industries and 179 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 2: Senior Pharmaceuticals Anels for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's based in London, 180 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 2: but he's in our Chicago bureau todays. He spent the 181 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 2: weekend Eddie as he was just mentioning a cancer conference 182 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 2: and where you know, a lot of the latest science 183 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 2: is presented, so and in for investors, it's really important 184 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 2: to think about how you know which things which I guess, 185 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 2: therapies and drugs you want to finance? 186 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 7: Mean work? 187 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 8: Does Sammon have the coolest job? Like media is really 188 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 8: cool to one of the people. 189 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 5: Energy is really cool. We all love it, but like 190 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 5: his stuff like changes the world and. 191 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 2: He actually understands the science and can explain it to 192 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 2: people like us. 193 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 194 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 195 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 196 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube at alex. 197 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 2: Deal and Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg and 198 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 2: Arrector Broker Studio streaming live on YouTube as well as 199 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,719 Speaker 2: John was just reporting SMP at fifty nine hundred. I mean, 200 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 2: after all ups and downs this year, pretty much year 201 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 2: to date, we're unched on the S and P five hunderd. 202 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 2: It feels like a lot of effort for not a 203 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 2: lot of payoff there. Shane Sissel joins US president and 204 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 2: CEO of ban Rion Capital Management from Chicago, Shana. How 205 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:36,959 Speaker 2: do you put twenty twenty five year to date into 206 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 2: context for your clients, because boy, we were down twenty percent. 207 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 2: Now we've retraced most of that from the recent highs. 208 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 2: How do you position the twenty twenty five Well, I. 209 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 9: Went into twenty twenty five thinking it was going. 210 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:50,439 Speaker 3: To be volatile. 211 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 9: It lived up to my expectations, so we positioned portfolios 212 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 9: for volatility and did quite well as a result. Ultimately, 213 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 9: what come down to is as more and more information 214 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 9: gets out. We have this twenty four hour news cycle, 215 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 9: and people get information in real time. The markets are 216 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 9: able to respond to news quickly. But more importantly, we've 217 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 9: seen that the retail advisor has been eager to jump 218 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 9: into the market when it turns downward, which is unusual. 219 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 3: That's not normally the case. 220 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 9: It's typically the institutions, and we've seen that kind of 221 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 9: reversed where the institutions are holding off while the retail 222 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 9: investors are jumping in, and ultimately that's kept the markets 223 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 9: from getting too far down and they're able to rebound 224 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 9: pretty quickly. 225 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 8: Basically. 226 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 9: You know, if you look in the past, normally we 227 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 9: look for the capitulation of the retail advisor, and we 228 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:50,200 Speaker 9: just haven't seen that. So for those reasons, that's why 229 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 9: I think there's been such great volatility. 230 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 5: But on the flip side, you have to wonder, then 231 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 5: who else is left to buy the rally? So where 232 00:11:56,280 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 5: how our funds positioned institutional investors. Clearly retail has been 233 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 5: buying the dip, so as you mentioned, there may not 234 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 5: be an extension of that. 235 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,839 Speaker 9: Yeah, but the institutional investors have sat on the sidelines, 236 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 9: and presently they have the bigger money to put to 237 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 9: work and more likely to move the market when they 238 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 9: jump back in. There's still very much on the sidelines, 239 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 9: so I think there is some opportunity to drive the 240 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,560 Speaker 9: market higher. It's just not how we normally would expect 241 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 9: it to be. 242 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 3: It's also a little bit concerning. 243 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 9: Obviously, the institutional investor tends to be the more informed investor, 244 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:30,839 Speaker 9: so the fact that they have stayed on the sidelines 245 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 9: can mean a lot of things, but it's not for 246 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 9: lack of information on their end and lack of analysis. 247 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 9: But you know, if we talk about analysis paralysis all 248 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 9: the time, there's a lot of uncertainty related to tariffs, 249 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 9: related to the administration, related to monetary policy, and I 250 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:52,719 Speaker 9: think that in many ways the institutional investor is a 251 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 9: little paralyzed by the uncertainty and for those reasons unwilling 252 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 9: to jump into the market, which I think might be 253 00:12:59,200 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 9: to their peril. 254 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 2: Shana, I know you do a lot of work with 255 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 2: alternative investments. When you speak to independent advisors, how are 256 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 2: they using alternatives these days when volatility both in the 257 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 2: equity markets and the bond markets are pretty pronounced. 258 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 9: Well, that's exactly where they use alternatives. If advisors or 259 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 9: individuals where to jump and allocate twenty percent of their 260 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:26,440 Speaker 9: total portfolio two alternatives, they would have actually done quite 261 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 9: well through the volatility, as these are low to no 262 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 9: correlation or even in some cases negative correlation assets. And 263 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 9: so if you look at the most volatile parts of 264 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 9: the last five months, you look at March, some of April, 265 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 9: some of February, you'll see that like a BTL, which 266 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 9: is the AGF anti beta market neutral fund. That fund 267 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 9: largely outperformed the S and P by a substantial amount, 268 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 9: was very positive during that period of time. So even 269 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 9: a small five percent allocation made a huge difference in 270 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 9: client portfolios. And then you start to pair that with 271 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 9: other low to no correlation assets like CTA and CBLS 272 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:11,439 Speaker 9: and MRSK, and then you have Bob Elliott's unlimited multistrat fund, 273 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 9: and you have a number of these alternative funds that 274 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,559 Speaker 9: all did really well through the volatility. So when equities 275 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 9: and fixed income were down, they were up, and so 276 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 9: that actually helped you through the volatilities. So advisors that 277 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 9: we work with that implemented those portfolios actually wrote out 278 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 9: that period of time quite well. 279 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 5: I know that where you look at in the tech 280 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 5: market isn't necessarily broad strokes or you know, buy AI 281 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 5: or buy the telecoms or whatever, but the mag seven 282 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 5: have really helped to lead that rally over the last month. 283 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 5: Does that continue or do you continue to see value 284 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 5: in different types of names? 285 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 9: Well, obviously I see value in different types of names 286 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 9: as they haven't participated and they are looking more attractive on. 287 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 8: A valuation basis. 288 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 9: But the tailwinds really do sit with those tech companies 289 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 9: because the biggest tailwind to business right now is AI, 290 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 9: and so anything related to AI, anything incorporating AI wins. 291 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 9: And so we saw with the mag seven, with the 292 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 9: most recent Nvidia earnings report that the demand for AI 293 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 9: is strong and the move to from learning and to 294 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 9: the next phase of AI is there, and so the 295 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 9: Blackwell chips, the greater need for computing power. All of 296 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 9: those things are real and very much in their infancy 297 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 9: and the sense of that there's no infrastructure there, and 298 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 9: so there continues to be substantial tailwinds, and so that's 299 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 9: why they continue to lead. You know, other areas of 300 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 9: the market have headwinds. So if you look at say energy, 301 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 9: you know, we have increased supply coming on, but we 302 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 9: have you know, declining demand from Asia. So that is 303 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 9: great if you want oil at forty bucks barrel, but 304 00:15:57,760 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 9: not great if you're an oil investor or an enery 305 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 9: G investor. You look at healthcare and we've seen a 306 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 9: lot of headwindes there but also some tremendous breakthroughs, and 307 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 9: especially in oncology, so you know, there's pros and constant everything, 308 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 9: but some of the cyclicals are starting to look cheap, 309 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 9: and that's definitely a place that I would be looking. 310 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 8: All right, Shanna, I really appreciate. I appreciate it. Always 311 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 8: good to get your perspective. 312 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 5: Shane sissel As, President and CEO of Benryon Capital Management. 313 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 314 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android 315 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 316 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 317 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 5: This is Boomberg Intelligence. Alex Steel here alongside Paul swe Need. 318 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 5: This is Boomberg Intelligence Radio. We cover everything you need 319 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 5: to know in business, economics and finance, a lot of 320 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 5: media and also a lot of energy. So I don't 321 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 5: know that much about fusion power. I'm the first one 322 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 5: to say it. John Tucker apparently knows a lot about it. 323 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 5: But we're going to discuss this right now. It could 324 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,479 Speaker 5: be a really good source. 325 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 8: Of clean fuel. 326 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 5: And for this we bring in tay Technology CEO Michael Binderbauer. 327 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 5: Just the company, Tay Technology is just closed one hundred 328 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 5: and fifty million dollars sin its latest funding round. The 329 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,400 Speaker 5: whole point of this company is to develop a commercial 330 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 5: fusion power Michael, if I knew nothing about fusion, which 331 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 5: is highly likely, tell me. 332 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:18,880 Speaker 8: What it is, how hard it is to do. 333 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 10: Yeah, So it's basically what nature does, based right, It 334 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 10: gives us our life and energy here on the planet 335 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,360 Speaker 10: from the sun. So any star you look up suffusion 336 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 10: reactor basically, right. So what we're trying to do is 337 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 10: to replicate that, terristrially, to make essentially copious power, carbon free, 338 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 10: clean and sustainable for the future of humanity. 339 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 2: Where are you in the process at tay So we're 340 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 2: very close. 341 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 10: We're just one machine a way to get to a 342 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 10: point where we actually harvest more energy than what we're 343 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 10: putting into the facility. This has been obviously a long journey. 344 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,639 Speaker 10: It's hard to do, terrist Really, the stars have a 345 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 10: lot of gravity. 346 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:57,119 Speaker 8: We don't have that. 347 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:00,120 Speaker 10: We to use other means, magnets and all sorts of things, 348 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,440 Speaker 10: and as you've probably seen over the last few years, 349 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 10: has been a playthrow of news inching really really close 350 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,199 Speaker 10: to the goal and across multiple efforts on the planet. 351 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 10: So we're about a three year way to get tonate 352 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 10: energy and somewhere early twenty thirties, we hopefully have a 353 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 10: power plant online. 354 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 5: What would be if you're able to achieve it and 355 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 5: have a power plant? Like what is that? Is that 356 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 5: just tremendous amount of energy with like no footprint. 357 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 10: Yeah, it's very small footprint. So it's the highest energy 358 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 10: density fuel you can have, by the factor of five 359 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 10: to ten, higher than fission. Even it utilizes hydrogen or 360 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 10: light species that are ubiquitous, So there's infinite fuel supply 361 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 10: if you will, and you would harvest clean energy out 362 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 10: of that at probably starting at a scale of a 363 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,359 Speaker 10: gas fired turbine, so something like four or five hundred 364 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 10: makawatts per plant, and it would literally be able to 365 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 10: distribute wherever you needed it in the grid. 366 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 6: Is there? 367 00:18:55,200 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 2: Can you talk about the economics surrounding this technologlogy? 368 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 8: Who would be the who would be the users. 369 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 2: The buyers, the developers of this technology? 370 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 10: Yeah, so I think what we're seeing and this gets 371 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,719 Speaker 10: to what we just announced today. Aside from raising capital, 372 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 10: we really have a long partnership with Google and they've 373 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 10: been deep with us on machine learning and tools to 374 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 10: help make this more efficient and more economic, and in fact, 375 00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 10: they would be a great first off taker for that right, 376 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 10: all the hyperscalers. Everybody that has high energy intens applications 377 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 10: growing at tremendous rates, right with a gap between supply 378 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 10: and demand developing, is looking for electrons and particularly green electrons. 379 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:37,679 Speaker 10: So those would be probably the first off takers for 380 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 10: the technology. 381 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 5: Oh, I got to ask you, John Tucker, he likes 382 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 5: his fusion. 383 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 6: What sets you apart from ETR in terms of the 384 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 6: reactor itself, the containment that's a fusion reactor or what? 385 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:55,119 Speaker 10: Yeah, so good question. So Eater and others are working 386 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,639 Speaker 10: on tokmacs, we actually are not. We're working what you 387 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:01,959 Speaker 10: see if you have a visual we have a compact machine, 388 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 10: not the size of gas turbine that can make about 389 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,679 Speaker 10: the same output as those other plants. It's much more 390 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 10: efficient uses smaller magnets. There's various tricks in the physics 391 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,639 Speaker 10: that allow you to do that, and that brings something 392 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 10: that's more compact, cheaper to produce, of course, more economic 393 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 10: to deploy, easier to maintain, etc. 394 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 8: And you can. 395 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 10: Essentially it's centralize these. We think we can build those 396 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 10: sort of cookie cutter in a factory and deploy on site. 397 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 10: And the other thing I should add is that sighting 398 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 10: on this compared to the other nuclear cousin, which is fission, right, 399 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:36,400 Speaker 10: it is a lot easier. There's no meltdown possibility, there's 400 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 10: no sort of nuclear accident of substance that people would 401 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 10: have to worry about. It's truly clean and benign, and 402 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,439 Speaker 10: so you can deploy it where you need it in 403 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 10: a much more straightforward way. 404 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 6: There's no use of beryllium in that reactor. 405 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 10: No, no. In fact, ours is using hydrogen and boron, 406 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 10: both of which are light and super ubiquitous. 407 00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:01,400 Speaker 6: Well deterium as the fuel, right, So the terium. 408 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:04,119 Speaker 10: Atridium is one fuel cycle that's used by some of 409 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 10: us in the fusion community, and we can burn that too, 410 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,639 Speaker 10: but we're really focused on hydrogen and boron. Ultimately, that 411 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 10: turns out that only makes helium, so you have no neutrons, 412 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 10: you have no radioactivity to speak of. It is just 413 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 10: a nirvana of energy. Essentially, you get ubigulous fuel in 414 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 10: no radioactivity or pollution in the process, totally sustainable, and 415 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 10: we think it will be competitive from a cost perspective. 416 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,240 Speaker 10: It will be probably starting out midfield in current generation 417 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 10: asset costs, so you're not as cheap as you know 418 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:37,159 Speaker 10: gas or renewables, but you're not as expensive as fission 419 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 10: is today is somewhere in the midfield and then trending down. 420 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,879 Speaker 5: Okay, let's pretend that neither of us understood what any 421 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 5: of you guys were talking about in terms of brilliant. 422 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 5: That's why we have him, right. He knows a lot 423 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 5: about a lot of different things. Before we let you go, 424 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,160 Speaker 5: just how hard is it to have gotten to where 425 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 5: you are? 426 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 1: Like? 427 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:55,679 Speaker 8: What has been like the biggest hurdle? 428 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 10: Oh gosh, it's been an enormous journey. I mean, I've 429 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 10: aged I started this out high school. I'm said, I 430 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 10: started out out of graduate school with my brilliant PhD mantur, 431 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 10: and then it took us about twenty plus years to 432 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:10,639 Speaker 10: amalgamate the technology around it. There's a lot of esoteric, 433 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 10: absolutely extreme things you got to master. Power supplies, accelerated technology, diagnostics, 434 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 10: feedback loops, you know, use a lot of machine learning 435 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:21,879 Speaker 10: in AI, a lot of we developed together with Google 436 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,160 Speaker 10: in the last decade that can react on the blink 437 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 10: of an eye to make changes in what happens inside 438 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 10: and do that reliably and consistently. And so those are 439 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 10: all the technologies we now have, so now we're putting 440 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 10: in the last machine. So it's been a long journey 441 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 10: and developing lots of technology to do that. 442 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 2: All right, Michael, thank you so much for joining us. 443 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 2: Michael Bindebauer, CEO of Tay Technologies, joining us there with 444 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,640 Speaker 2: some exciting new technology on the energy front that John 445 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 2: Tucker's all into, which. 446 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 8: Is now like insanely impressive. 447 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 6: Questions were like even nobody understood them, so love it. 448 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,119 Speaker 8: Make it all commercial break, that's true. 449 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 450 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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