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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over a second.

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Speaker 3: Hello, book in the Action or Podcast. UFC Betting Preview

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Speaker 3: happen to be back on the Feed, presented by DraftKings.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host Shan Zarillo, joined today by Billy Word

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Speaker 3: to help you break down the UFC Houston card you

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Speaker 3: bear best bets, favorite underdogs, top props, and more. Before

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Speaker 3: we get into that and Saturday's card, though, which goes

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Speaker 3: down five pm Eastern in Houston, eight pm. Main card,

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Speaker 3: we're going to talk about the Gina Carno ron A

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Speaker 3: Rousey fight just going to be coming up in May.

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Speaker 3: Just got booked, should be on Netflix, assuming these women

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Speaker 3: both past the concussion protocols and whatnot. But they're gonna

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Speaker 3: have to undergo Billy What caught my attention? What I

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Speaker 3: didn't remember? Gina Carano retired in two thousand and nine,

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Speaker 3: two years before Ronda Rousey even debuted. She's forty three

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Speaker 3: rowsies thirty nine. The opening odds got up as high

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Speaker 3: as Rowsy minus seven hundred. It came back down to

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Speaker 3: around minus four hundred Caronto plus three hundred. I saw Coposa,

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Speaker 3: who we both love On Twitter, he basically said, Rowsey's

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Speaker 3: gonna maler. That was his take A quick arm bar

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Speaker 3: and that'll be a wrap. Is that your initial takeaway

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Speaker 3: and impression of how you think that fight's gonna play out?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? I thought I was gonna have to like max

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Speaker 4: about it at like minus six hundred or something on

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Speaker 4: the Rowsy side. And other friend of the podcast, Griff

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Speaker 4: who in the Action Network discord, said he saw some

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Speaker 4: opening lines or some look aheadlines before it was announced.

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Speaker 4: With Rowsey at minus four hundred, I was like, man,

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Speaker 4: I'm going to like mortgage my house at minus four hundred.

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Speaker 4: There's two parts of that. One like the difference, as

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Speaker 4: you pointed out, where Rowsy is just that much younger

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Speaker 4: and closer to her career. She didn't even have an

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Speaker 4: amateur fight before Krano retired. The other thing is, though

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Speaker 4: they're like actually different eras, Like the quality of women's

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Speaker 4: MMA in the late aughts when Karano was fighting was

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Speaker 4: so far behind when Rowsi was fighting, which is so

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Speaker 4: far behind you know, like Amanda Nunez or whatever. But

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Speaker 4: even if they were the same actual age, like dominating

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Speaker 4: the era that Rowsy did is infinitely more impressive than

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Speaker 4: Gina Krano beating up like whoever they had for her. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: you know there were some good fighters then, but it's

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Speaker 4: not the same quality. So between those two factors, assuming

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Speaker 4: Rowsy doesn't have some horrible TBI that she's alluded to, Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I think minus four hundred on ROWSI feels like a gift. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I'm not even sure where this robbery butted from. I

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Speaker 3: know they were both in Fast movies. Fast even is

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Speaker 3: considered better than Fast six, so that'll be it. I

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Speaker 3: would assume, you know, Kroano maybe has a bone to

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Speaker 3: pick with Rowsy a little bit. Uh my Fast seven

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Speaker 3: is it's either fasted or Fast fives the best of

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Speaker 3: the series. In my opinion, Fast six is up there.

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Speaker 3: It's just not on the level of the other two.

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Speaker 3: Let's get into the Saturday's main event though. Between Anthony

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Speaker 3: Hernandez and Sean Strickland, very smooth transition right there. I

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Speaker 3: could see Anthony Hernandez popping up in some kind of

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Speaker 3: Fast movie as.

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Speaker 5: Like one of the guys' in their crew. He seems

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Speaker 5: like a dude who would be.

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Speaker 3: Part of dom Toretto's crew. And you know what, I

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Speaker 3: think he's going to bring the fight to Sean Strickland.

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Speaker 4: This begain.

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Speaker 3: Sean Strickland his past few fights has just been unwilling

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Speaker 3: to engage his quarter, just blatantly yelling at him, I

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Speaker 3: saw you post. Basically, these are the direct opposite in

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Speaker 3: willingness to do things inside of the octagon. Hernandez forces

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Speaker 3: you to fight. Sean Strickland just wants to jab and

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Speaker 3: teep and run away. Big Cage is helping here in Houston,

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Speaker 3: is supposed to being in the apex. But also Fluffy

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Speaker 3: is just going to look to get his hands around

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Speaker 3: you and force you in a wrestling match. The site

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Speaker 3: the statforth sighting he averages fifteen takedowns per five minutes

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Speaker 3: at distance eighty two percent, control rates sixty two percent.

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Speaker 3: For Strickland in his grappling exchanges, hasn't really faced wrestlers

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Speaker 3: on the level of Fluffy. I mean, nobody is really

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Speaker 3: on the level of Fluffy or stylistically in the realm

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Speaker 3: of Fluffy. But also Sean hasn't faced many guys who

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Speaker 3: are going to go in there with him and proactively wrestle.

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Speaker 3: Very curious to see how the first round plays out,

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Speaker 3: because Fluffy can give away minutes early. We saw the

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Speaker 3: Roman Kappolaf fight. I don't remember if he ended up

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Speaker 3: losing the first round, but certainly lost early minutes. You

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Speaker 3: were able to get a better live price on him.

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Speaker 3: He's weak to the body. We've seen him get hurt

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Speaker 3: to the body multiple times. That's how Kevin Holland put

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Speaker 3: him away Strickland. You know, there's really not a lot

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Speaker 3: of power coming off of his punches. It's a lot

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Speaker 3: of jabs, it's a lot of teeps. I actually think

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Speaker 3: Fluffy's striking is super underrated. That's what has impressed me

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Speaker 3: looking back at the delis A fight, looking back at

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Speaker 3: the Michelle Perira fight, his boxing has gotten so much better.

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Speaker 3: And he's also just willing to throw power behind his punches,

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Speaker 3: and when your hands are low defending takedowns, he's gonna

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Speaker 3: find openings the land damage on you. So Fluffy for me,

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Speaker 3: is actually a little undervalued here. I like him up

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Speaker 3: to about minus three hundred. That's where I projected him

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Speaker 3: as a parlay piece. I think you may get a

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Speaker 3: better life price though after five minutes. Potentially potentially not

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Speaker 3: though if he just gets to the grappling right away,

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Speaker 3: it's gonna float up immediately. He has immediate success in

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Speaker 3: the grappling, I think it's gonna start getting a little

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Speaker 3: bit out of control in terms of the early odds adjustment.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he may be minus nine hundred in the

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Speaker 3: second round if he's landing takedowns. But that said, Sean,

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Speaker 3: if he has success, I think it's going to come

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Speaker 3: in the early minutes. Maybe get a better live price

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Speaker 3: on Fluffy now, Billy, you're taking the plus nine and

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Speaker 3: a half on Sean. Strickland was minus one ten when

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Speaker 3: I saw it open. I guess you like it up

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Speaker 3: to about minus one twenty five or it is minus

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Speaker 3: one twenty five currently. And are there any other ways

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Speaker 3: you're considering betting on this fight? Fluffy Live? Any late

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Speaker 3: round props? This It is worth noting this is an

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Speaker 3: odd spot where. I mean, when you see the progression

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Speaker 3: of round props on a fight, it always starts with

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Speaker 3: the cheapest price being round one and the the biggest odds,

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Speaker 3: the biggest hit being round five. You know it might

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Speaker 3: go from plus five hundred to ten to one, to

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Speaker 3: fifteen to one, to twenty one and twenty five to one.

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Speaker 3: Fluffies props for this fight are directly inverse correlated where

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Speaker 3: his most expensive odds or his his uh, his best

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Speaker 3: price is to finish the fight in round one. It's

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Speaker 3: over ten to one when I have you, and then

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Speaker 3: his round five odds have actually decreased closer to eight

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Speaker 3: to one. So I'd assume because of that reason, the

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Speaker 3: round props do not interest you.

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Speaker 5: But maybe a live bet kuit.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, No, that was hilarious. I'm glad you brought it up.

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Speaker 4: I was gonna mention it. No, it's a really weird

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Speaker 4: fight and I'm super intrigued by it because you know,

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Speaker 4: as you reference my tweet, like Fluffier Nandez does more

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Speaker 4: things than anyone in the UFC, and Sean Strickland avoids

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Speaker 4: doing things better than anyone in the UFC. Like the

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Speaker 4: last DVP fight, they kept it on Eric Nixon between

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Speaker 4: every round just so you could hear Nick Sick yelling

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Speaker 4: at Sean Strickland, and every time he was like, I

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Speaker 4: need you to do stuff like I just I need

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Speaker 4: more more output. That's all he was saying every time,

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Speaker 4: and the commentary was saying it, and the crowd was

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Speaker 4: like everyone but Sean Strickland knew that he at least

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Speaker 4: had to try to do more things, and he steadfastly

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Speaker 4: continued to like jab throw the occasional right hand and

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Speaker 4: tekick in there. But with all of that said, Anthony

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Speaker 4: Hennetta isn't like actually a good wrestler. He just does

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Speaker 4: a lot of stuff. Like Brendan Allen reversed him a

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Speaker 4: couple of times, stole the first round from him, had

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Speaker 4: more opportunities to and probably could have if he weren't

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Speaker 4: so tired from chasing Anthony Hernandez around, you know, understandably.

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Speaker 4: So I think Strickland early on he's an underrated grappler.

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Speaker 4: He can wrestle. I actually kind of expect him to

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Speaker 4: win the first round. Like if we had one of

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Speaker 4: those to win first round bets and could get it

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Speaker 4: at Strickland at a big price, I would take Sean

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Speaker 4: and that, which leads me to the plus nine and

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Speaker 4: a half because he wins that first round, you only

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Speaker 4: have to cover one round assuming you make it to

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Speaker 4: the finish Strickland, I don't think it's ever been submitted

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Speaker 4: or it's been a really long time. If he has

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Speaker 4: fairly solid defensively, I don't think he's going to fade

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Speaker 4: down the stretch. Even when he wasn't doing stuff against DP.

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Speaker 4: He had a broken nose, was getting beat up, managed

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Speaker 4: to finish the fight. So a late finish and there

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Speaker 4: is a risk. But the great thing about this bet

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Speaker 4: is if Strickland wins the first round, then we'll get

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Speaker 4: a better price on Hernandez and in theory be able

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Speaker 4: to cover and come out with a profity profit either way.

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Speaker 4: So I'm looking at this one. There's a famous Dan

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Speaker 4: Gable quote. He says, the first round is one by

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Speaker 4: the technician, the second round is won by the kid

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Speaker 4: with a better gas tank. The third round is won

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Speaker 4: by the kid with a bigger heart. I think Hernandez

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Speaker 4: has the better gas tank and heart. Strickling might be

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Speaker 4: the better overall technician here, which all we need is

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Speaker 4: one round and that will give us an opportunity to

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Speaker 4: cash both of these bets and kind of thread that needle.

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Speaker 4: We've got a point spread on one guy in a

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Speaker 4: live money line on the other. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I actually don't think I see Strickland getting finished either.

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Speaker 3: I think he does make it to the final bell.

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Speaker 3: I think it's going to be up to him whether

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Speaker 3: that happens. You know, in terms of the late fight

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Speaker 3: dynamics and how Fluffy's flowing on top of him, you know,

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Speaker 3: in a similar manner to how he's fulling on top

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Speaker 3: of Brendan Allen. Like you said, because Alan scrambling Strickland's scrambling,

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Speaker 3: his ability to get up both very solid. But Brendan

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Speaker 3: Allen tends to do things to put himself in bad

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Speaker 3: positions where he gets caught or you know, gets reversed

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Speaker 3: or gets submitted Sean Strickland, I think we're probably just

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Speaker 3: kind of lockdown position and accept it and maybe get

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Speaker 3: top timed a little bit and survive.

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Speaker 4: I'm I say, despite his best efforts, Alan made it

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Speaker 4: to the end, like he was trying to snatch that

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Speaker 4: defeat from the jaws of victory as fast as he could,

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Speaker 4: but he still made it all fifteen.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I think a lot of people are expecting

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Speaker 3: Fluffy to ultimately find the finish here.

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Speaker 5: I think Strickland is going to find a way to survive.

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Speaker 3: But I do like Fluffy to see his hand raised,

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Speaker 3: and do you like him as a parlay piece, maybe

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Speaker 3: a same game parlay.

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Speaker 5: Fluffy in the over.

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Speaker 3: You do need to get Fluffy in over three and

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Speaker 3: a half though, in order to get it near even money.

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Speaker 3: That's why I was a little diary like, I don't

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Speaker 3: I don't know if I want to play with the

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Speaker 3: final seven and a half minutes, you know, being the

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Speaker 3: only out I have.

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Speaker 5: That seems seems like.

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Speaker 3: If a finish comes, it could really come at any point.

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Speaker 3: I'd say after round two probably, But I think it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be up to Strickland if he wants to keep

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Speaker 3: fighting and you know, live to see another round and

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Speaker 3: look for a knockout blow, or whether he's just gonna

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Speaker 3: maybe accept submission for bottom, which is not something we've

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Speaker 3: seen him do, but again, not seeing him against the

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Speaker 3: grappler of this caliber with this relentlessness very often.

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Speaker 5: On to the code of main event between JFL.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely not just fun stat I wanted to include

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Speaker 4: in there. This fight features the UFC's middleweight all time

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Speaker 4: takedown leader and Anthony Ranis have the middleweight record for

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Speaker 4: takedowns and the UFC's all time record and significant strikes

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Speaker 4: in the middle eight division is Sean Strickland. So fun

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Speaker 4: little stat that I've noticed while watching tape on both

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Speaker 4: these guys, they both in recent fight set those records,

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Speaker 4: so as binary as it could be on paper, at

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Speaker 4: least on paper.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but I wouldn't say, like silistically it's it's not

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Speaker 3: because you know, we were both like they're they're both

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Speaker 3: confident enough in the area where the others stronger that it.

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Speaker 3: I think it's going to go all twenty five minutes,

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Speaker 3: even though I'm not going to bet it to go

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Speaker 3: all twenty five minutes. The odds suggest that it. I

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Speaker 3: think it's juice to end inside the distance, right.

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Speaker 4: So it's close to where you look. But yeah, yeah, we've.

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Speaker 5: All seen to be leading. Over goes the decision there.

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Speaker 3: But Strickland probably losing four rounds to one or three

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Speaker 3: rounds to two, I think is how we both see

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Speaker 3: that one playing out. So we want the company event

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Speaker 3: between Jeff Neil and Eros Metich and the welterweight division.

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Speaker 3: Neil coming back from a knockout loss to Carlos protests Meticch,

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Speaker 3: I believe coming in off of a couple of wins,

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Speaker 3: and we're on opposite side of this matchup.

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Speaker 5: I like Neil as.

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Speaker 3: The favorite two inches shorter, he has a foreign treach advantage.

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Speaker 3: Though so also talked a lot this week about his sobriety.

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Speaker 3: Seems like he went through an absolute hell of a time,

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Speaker 3: not only of his health. We knew he fought the

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Speaker 3: liver damage and he had like a severe about of

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Speaker 3: COVID that he overcame as well. He had stuff even

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Speaker 3: before that too. Jeff Neil had a ton of health issues.

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Speaker 3: But as a result of that when a depression was

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Speaker 3: dealing with alcoholism. It seems like he's emerged out on

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Speaker 3: the other side and been sober for a few months.

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Speaker 3: But just stylistically, you know, even if this was the

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Speaker 3: Jeff Neil that I knew I was handicapping six months

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Speaker 3: ago off of tape, I do think he's not only

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Speaker 3: the better striker here, the more powerful striker metas faster

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Speaker 3: for the first round. But I think Jeff Neil is

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Speaker 3: going to win this fight via grappling. We've seen him

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Speaker 3: implement the takedowns against Facente Luke against RDA seventy three

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Speaker 3: percent control rate in grappling changes and clich exchanges for

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Speaker 3: Jeff Neil, just eleven percent for euros Meticic ninety percent

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Speaker 3: takedown defense for Neil, fifty six percent for Medic. I

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Speaker 3: think Jeff Neil is going to hit a takedown here

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Speaker 3: in at least one round and potentially finish the fight

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Speaker 3: from top position. I haven't liked what I've seen for Medicic.

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Speaker 3: When he gets put flat on his back, he tends

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Speaker 3: to like roll over and end up turtling and accepting

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Speaker 3: some ground and pound. And I don't know if he's

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Speaker 3: going to be able to handle the damage from Neil either.

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Speaker 3: Now that said, Neil is coming off of that knockout,

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Speaker 3: we haven't seen him get hurt that often. And Metic

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Speaker 3: is fast and dangerous in the first round, and I

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Speaker 3: think the first round is going to be extremely competitive.

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Speaker 3: I could even see Metic winning the first round. I

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Speaker 3: just expect Neil and his power to sustain longer into

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Speaker 3: the fight and to eventually put meticch away in this

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Speaker 3: second or third round, if not win a decision. So

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Speaker 3: I like Neil pre fight, but I actually prefer him live,

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Speaker 3: probably after round one, because I think Medic is going

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Speaker 3: to maybe hurt him in round one or at minimum

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Speaker 3: it will be extremely competitive. You like Metich potentially finish

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Speaker 3: the fight.

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Speaker 5: Inside the distance.

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Speaker 3: Could probably even consider a round one play as well,

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Speaker 3: because I think that's when Metich is clearly at his

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Speaker 3: most dangerous. So what did you see here, Billy in

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Speaker 3: terms of your breakdown for this fight? And you'll have

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Speaker 3: a full written breakdown for this one up on actionework

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Speaker 3: dot com as well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, just finish that full written breakdown before I get

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Speaker 4: to my thoughts. You actually sold me on a bet

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Speaker 4: that you didn't mention by accident, Jeff Neil over half

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Speaker 4: a takedown is plus two to fifty. Yeah, and draftings

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Speaker 4: and if he's gonna win, I think you're one hundred

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Speaker 4: percent right on that. I approached this breakdown basically breaking

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Speaker 4: it down as a kickboxing match because that's what both

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Speaker 4: guys do most of the time. But you're one hundred

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Speaker 4: percent right, Like, if he mixes that in, that's a

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Speaker 4: really good angle and I'm gonna definitely have that, and

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Speaker 4: then I'll have two plus two hundred bets on this fight.

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Speaker 4: I feel like one or the others going to hit.

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Speaker 4: This was a really weird one to break down, so

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Speaker 4: I'm not gonna get super deep into it because I

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Speaker 4: do have the article. But Ero's metic all of his

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Speaker 4: losses are against lefties, and he got dropped by Selmosberger

308
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Speaker 4: who switches stances when Selmisberger was standing lefty, and then

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Speaker 4: Metis knocked him out when Samosberger switched back to righty's.

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Speaker 4: This is a lefty on lefty matchup. Neil. The only

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Speaker 4: lefty he's fought in the UFC was RDA. It was

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Speaker 4: a ninety second fight. RDA hurt his knee doesn't really

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Speaker 4: tell us anything. The really weird part, though, is Jeff Neil,

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Speaker 4: while he stands south pawt I would bet a lot

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Speaker 4: of money he's actually a right hander, like in his

316
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Speaker 4: real life. You know, he writes with his right hand,

317
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Speaker 4: because most southpaw is an opposite stands matchups. They want

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Speaker 4: to be really left handed. They throw straight left down

319
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Speaker 4: the pipe, they try to circle to their right, get

320
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Speaker 4: those angles. He uses more jabs and hooks off of

321
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Speaker 4: his lead hand, and it's almost like he stands that

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Speaker 4: way just to put his lead hand closer to you

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Speaker 4: so he can hit you more with that. Because of that,

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Speaker 4: I don't think he's the like southpaw threat that Jalen

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Speaker 4: Turner or Soriano or these other lefties that have hurt

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Speaker 4: Metage is. So there's my logic there. And then he's

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Speaker 4: lost three of his last four, with the only win

328
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Speaker 4: being the aforementioned RDA fight. I think that's mostly a

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Speaker 4: level of competition thing. I don't think he's really slipping

330
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Speaker 4: but he is thirty five and his you know, even

331
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Speaker 4: if you've been sober for three months, a lifetime of

332
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Speaker 4: various health issues and all those things, it catches up

333
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Speaker 4: to you, right, So there's that factor. And then the

334
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Speaker 4: final piece on Jeff Neil, I just worry about the

335
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Speaker 4: knockout to Carlos Projest fairly recently, going against a strong

336
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Speaker 4: striker in metic. It wasn't that reason. It was close

337
00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,200
Speaker 4: to six months at this point, but you know it

338
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Speaker 4: was a bad opic because he got real knocked out.

339
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Speaker 4: That wasn't like a you know, standing TKO. He's just

340
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Speaker 4: dead with that spinning elbow. So all factors and then

341
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Speaker 4: if you're gonna beout matters, it has to be inside

342
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Speaker 4: the distance. He's never won a decision. I think one

343
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Speaker 4: of his UFC fights has made it past like the

344
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Speaker 4: one and a half, or one of his UFC wins

345
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Speaker 4: has made it past the midway point of the second round,

346
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Speaker 4: which also leads me to if Metis has a big

347
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Speaker 4: first round, doesn't get him out of there live. Bet

348
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Speaker 4: On Neil is my other like semi hedge, so I

349
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Speaker 4: think we're kind of seeing it the same way. I

350
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Speaker 4: didn't really consider the grappling, but I've I'm going to

351
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Speaker 4: immediately when we get off this podcast make sure I

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Speaker 4: get that plus two fifty before people hear it, because

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Speaker 4: those move a lot. So sorry.

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Speaker 3: I think the only way that takes doesn't come into

355
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Speaker 3: play as if you know, they just swing it out

356
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Speaker 3: and they dead and you know, somebody dead somebody else

357
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Speaker 3: in the first ninety seconds of the fight. If it extends,

358
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Speaker 3: I definitely think Jeff is gonna at minimum clinch and

359
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Speaker 3: then probably look to get a takedown from the clincher.

360
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Speaker 3: So yeah, I completely agree. They've faced vastly different levels

361
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Speaker 3: of competition. My concerns lie with, you know, the recent knockout.

362
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Speaker 3: If he hadn't been knocked out six months ago, you know,

363
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Speaker 3: if he was coming into this fight, you know, no

364
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Speaker 3: the shot God fight being the most recent finished loss

365
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Speaker 3: for him, you know, and didn't have that protest loss

366
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Speaker 3: and minus two twenty five, I think this would be

367
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Speaker 3: a humongous deal. I think the main concern is how

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Speaker 3: did he look six months.

369
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Speaker 5: After a knockout.

370
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Speaker 3: So we'll move on though, to our favorite underdogs on

371
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Speaker 3: this card. You're gonna take a shot on the rematch,

372
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Speaker 3: and an underdog from a fight I believe it was

373
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Speaker 3: around even money the first time they fought in or

374
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Speaker 3: Cornoll against Jocelyn Edwards. Edwards is six years younger. She

375
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Speaker 3: closed about minus one twenty the first fight, now minus

376
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Speaker 3: three hundred in this rematch. The media had the scorecards

377
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Speaker 3: about fifty to fifty in the first fight twenty nine

378
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Speaker 3: to twenty eight. Either way, it is worth noting those

379
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Speaker 3: seventy five percent of fans scored the bout for Edwards,

380
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Speaker 3: and more had it thirty twenty seven for Edwards than

381
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Speaker 3: had it twenty nine twenty eight the other the way it.

382
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Speaker 5: Did seem during.

383
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Speaker 3: During it playing out or in the immediate aftermath that

384
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Speaker 3: everybody was crying obvious robbery. I found it interesting to

385
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Speaker 3: go back and see the media score cards split because

386
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Speaker 3: a lot of the media members who scored it, not all,

387
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Speaker 3: but a lot of the media members who scores are

388
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Speaker 3: on there, are physically in the arena and are scoring

389
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,280
Speaker 3: it and seem to fight a little bit differently than

390
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:43,480
Speaker 3: sometimes we see it play out on TV. And I

391
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:45,239
Speaker 3: thought it was also worth noting that none of them

392
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Speaker 3: scored it thirty twenty seven. So Billy, you're taking a

393
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Speaker 3: shot here on Cornwall to either win the fight or

394
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Speaker 3: at minimum to cover her point spread and when around

395
00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,399
Speaker 3: and lose twenty nine to twenty eight at worst. So

396
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Speaker 3: what did you see going back watching that first fight

397
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Speaker 3: and what have you seen in their fights? Since you

398
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Speaker 3: think Edwards has not improved as much as I would

399
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 3: suspect other people think she has because she's gotten finishes

400
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:11,640
Speaker 3: in the interim.

401
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, so really interesting that you brought up the media

402
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 4: versus fan di dichotomy. There's two fights that stood out

403
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,720
Speaker 4: on this card. Jeff Neil has the split decision lost

404
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 4: to Ian Gary, where the fans were like fifty to

405
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 4: fifty or favored Gary, and all the media gave it

406
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:26,359
Speaker 4: to Jeff Neil. I think that one is just because

407
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,639
Speaker 4: people don't like Ian Gary. Doesn't really have anything to

408
00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,720
Speaker 4: do with the fight. This one, though, I went back

409
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 4: and watched it and it's very close. You shouldn't complain

410
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 4: either way. But the way the criteria is written and

411
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:41,159
Speaker 4: we've seen all that stuff, Edwards was getting takedowns and

412
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Speaker 4: not doing much with him and Cornoll was doing a

413
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:47,560
Speaker 4: ton of damage during relatively brief stand up exchanges. Former

414
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 4: you know, elite level kickboxer who's still fairly new to MMA.

415
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 4: So the two things for me is that fight was

416
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Speaker 4: closer than people remembered. It was not a robbery. You

417
00:19:57,920 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 4: could tell me that Edwards want, and I'm not going

418
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 4: to argue with but it certainly wasn't a robbery. And

419
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Speaker 4: Cornanola had only been an MMA fighter for like two

420
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Speaker 4: years at that point. So even though she's on the

421
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,280
Speaker 4: older side at thirty six, you know she was young

422
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 4: in her career when she fought, so yeah her. Yeah,

423
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,920
Speaker 4: she had been less than two years as a pro

424
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Speaker 4: MMA fighter when she fought Joslyn Edwards the first time.

425
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Speaker 4: So in the three years since then, you know, she's

426
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,120
Speaker 4: more than doubled her MMA experience. You would imagine most

427
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 4: of that was spent grappling. She's pretty clearly the better

428
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 4: striker than Joslyn Edwards, I believe, and she might be

429
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:30,959
Speaker 4: the better striker of almost anyone in the division, So

430
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,680
Speaker 4: that's not a knock on Edwards. She can keep this

431
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Speaker 4: standing for even a single round or most of one round,

432
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 4: she covers the point spread, she keeps it standing for

433
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,680
Speaker 4: most of the two rounds, we get the money line play.

434
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 4: That's how I see it coming up. She'll get taken

435
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,159
Speaker 4: down at some point, but probably not five again and

436
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,000
Speaker 4: probably not take it down a damage when she does

437
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:49,919
Speaker 4: get taken down because she's so big and strong and

438
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 4: just towers out of it.

439
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,160
Speaker 3: On a couple of fights that I like from underdog perspective,

440
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 3: we'll see if we can get Billy on board for

441
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,159
Speaker 3: either of them. The first one Danny Gay against Melki

442
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 3: Costa in the featherweight division. I think Ega may be

443
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,880
Speaker 3: a better live bed here than he is pre fight

444
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 3: because he does tend to get a little.

445
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 5: Bit better as his fights go on.

446
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 3: Won the third round it is fighting against Diego Lopez

447
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 3: won the third round via finish against Sean Woodson after

448
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:16,160
Speaker 3: coming on in the second. I believe he also won

449
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 3: the third round against Patricio Pitball in his last fight

450
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 3: as well. Conversely, Melki cost that we've seen kind of

451
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,120
Speaker 3: fade down the stretch against c Rod, seen him kind

452
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 3: of slow down later in his fights, particularly when he's

453
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 3: looking to implement the grappling, and that is likeliest or

454
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 3: the likeliest why he beats Dan Egay in this fight

455
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,920
Speaker 3: is getting on top, getting top time at least through

456
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 3: the first ten minutes. Res though we can get their

457
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 3: respective stats and control rates. Melgi the more efficient striker.

458
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 3: EGA certainly carries more power, the takedown success rates, the

459
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 3: control rates, the relatively even you know, Malki's grappling stats

460
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,399
Speaker 3: don't necessarily blow me away, but we have seen the

461
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 3: EGA just getting you know, taken down, dismantled by guys

462
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:01,199
Speaker 3: who wouldn't expect him to. Korean Zombie I think was

463
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 3: the one that really sticks out in hindsight. You know,

464
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 3: nobody really expected that going into that fight between those two,

465
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 3: and that's TKZ just kind of held them down for

466
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 3: the entirety of that matchup. So I like EGA to

467
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 3: at least win around here. You do have to pay

468
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,880
Speaker 3: a pretty hefty price on the point spread. The plus

469
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 3: three and a half is minus one seventy minus one

470
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 3: eighty for a fighter who's plus one eighty five on

471
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 3: the money line, I am going.

472
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 5: To consider taking some of his money line.

473
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 3: I do make him about plus one sixty five, So

474
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 3: I don't think there's a huge edge there necessarily.

475
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 5: I think the best.

476
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 3: Spot may just come live after round one. In addition

477
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,400
Speaker 3: to that point spread, So Billy DANDYEG against Malti costa

478
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 3: of the two hunderdogs, the one I'm a little bit

479
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 3: more tepping about I prefer the next fight that we'll

480
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 3: get to in a moment, but I do like Egay

481
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 3: live quite a bit.

482
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 5: Do you have any thoughts on this fight?

483
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually leaned towards both of the underdogs, including

484
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 4: the next one. The problem I had of both these guys,

485
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 4: I've bet against their opponents in various points and seemingly

486
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 4: always get burned. I'm just I've never been that impressed

487
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:03,640
Speaker 4: by Malki Costa, but he just keeps winning and making

488
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 4: me look stupid when I say that. So it's a

489
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 4: little bit of PTSD on my part. With that said,

490
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 4: especially if I can get like the points spread at

491
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 4: a little better price, maybe it moves or something. I

492
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,360
Speaker 4: do like the points spread. Danny Gay never been finished

493
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 4: in the UFC for sure, maybe never at all, and

494
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 4: that includes showing up on like forty minutes notice or

495
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 4: whatever too. Lopez, So like, you can make it through

496
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,879
Speaker 4: against Diego Lopez like fresh off the massage table. As

497
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 4: the story went like, probably not gonna get finished by

498
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 4: molt Costa. So yeah, I'm with you. I think pointspread

499
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 4: probably the way to do it, but we'll get there.

500
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, you have to lay a pretty hefty price on

501
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 3: the point spread. Maybe it's a parlay piece with Fluffy

502
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 3: or something else that you like on the card. Other

503
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 3: underdog that I'm taking an eye at this weekend pull

504
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 3: Row against John Paul wibos Noyani. I would assume based

505
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 3: on your comment that you tried to fade JPL and

506
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 3: Contender Series and got burned.

507
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, that seemed to.

508
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 3: Indicate to me when you said you got got burned

509
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 3: in the past going against the opponents, so didn't realize that.

510
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,159
Speaker 3: I know that was a relatively surprising and violent finish

511
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 3: for him on Contender Series because from what I've gathered,

512
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 3: he comes from a little bit more of a grappling background.

513
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 5: But Phil Row, even.

514
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 3: Though he's nine years older, has just a huge size

515
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,439
Speaker 3: advantage here. JPL is not particularly big for wealthweight, but

516
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 3: Roe is a very big wealthweight. Sporch's taller has an

517
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 3: eight entreach advantage here, which could lead to some difficulty.

518
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 3: You know, Shapl looks to find his range in the

519
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 3: first round.

520
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 5: Phil Row, also at.

521
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,959
Speaker 3: BJJ black belt, never been I believe Phil Rowe has

522
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,120
Speaker 3: never been finished in his career either. But I make

523
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 3: Row about plus one twenty. I like him all the

524
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:40,919
Speaker 3: way down to plus one thirty, and I also like

525
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 3: this fight to go long, to go all fifteen minutes.

526
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 3: Average fighting this division goes to a decision about forty

527
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 3: five percent.

528
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 5: Of the time.

529
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,959
Speaker 3: Market is giving you closer to plus one fifty and

530
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 3: forty percent.

531
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 5: I think it's a coid flip.

532
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 3: I think it's a fifty to fifty bet that they're

533
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 3: giving you plus one fifty to go all fifteen minutes.

534
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 3: And I think Row is about plus one seventy five

535
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 3: in a fight where he should be a slight dog.

536
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,159
Speaker 3: Also think he's worth considering live after round one as well.

537
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 3: If he gets taken down, he's able to pop back

538
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,439
Speaker 3: up at some point. Just it's not necessarily a cardio

539
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 3: dynamic analysis more so a he's just a bigger dude

540
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 3: and it's going to be difficult to deal with. And

541
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 3: once he figures out the grappling from his opponent, if

542
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 3: he's able to get things back at range, he should

543
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 3: win at rage. So give me full Row in the

544
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 3: fight to go to a decision, both at pretty nice

545
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 3: plus money numbers. Billy, either of those bets and both

546
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 3: of those bets you on board with? And how do

547
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 3: you feel about the live market here too?

548
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 4: Yeah? I'm probably staying away. I do like the live angle.

549
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 4: Just a couple of things to add. Philreau finished in

550
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 4: his pro debut back in a long time ago and

551
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 4: never since then twenty fourteen, unless you count the flying

552
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 4: triangle choke from Craig Jones at a random karate combat

553
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 4: event that was hilarious, which everyone should go back and watch.

554
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:53,679
Speaker 4: Phil Roae was not trying very hard. He was just

555
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 4: hanging out. Both guys have grappling losses to Cody Steele

556
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 4: somehow at different points in their career. Phil Roe made

557
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 4: it to a decision. Jpl was finished by Cody Steele,

558
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 4: although that was combat jiu jitsu where they're allowed to

559
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 4: slap each other on the ground. Don't put any weight

560
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 4: in any of that that I just said. Just thought

561
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 4: those were interesting, and yeah, I bet again some mind

562
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,439
Speaker 4: the Contender series. His opponent was like plus four hundred,

563
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 4: so I wasn't expecting to hit necessarily, but then for

564
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 4: him to just come out and kill him in nine

565
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 4: seventy seconds or whatever. Those those make it hard for

566
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 4: me to bet because it's just not enough information for

567
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,400
Speaker 4: me to adjust my priors on based on the tape

568
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 4: study before the Contender Series, even if it's good, he

569
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 4: starts to dude in sixty seconds like that doesn't tell

570
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 4: me a lot about your overall skill set, So then

571
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 4: I struggle and makes me want to stay away. So

572
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 4: maybe that's one We'll get a few minutes and I'll

573
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 4: be able to adjust my thoughts on JPL moving forward.

574
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, we'll certainly find out at his level.

575
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 3: I just feel like in the aggregate, those guys who

576
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 3: impress on Contender series, get the quick finishes, come into

577
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 3: the promotion, as you know, established favorites over guys who

578
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 3: were established UFC fighters. I think in the aggregate, taking

579
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,120
Speaker 3: these established vets at plus money plus one seventy five

580
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 3: at least to be competitive and for the fight to

581
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 3: go all fifteen minutes, I think, you know, all over time,

582
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 3: I think that'll probably end up profiting.

583
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:14,320
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584
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:18,080
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Speaker 4: You're on Twitter.

597
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 5: We have great new feature.

598
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 3: If you see a bet from any of your favorite

599
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 3: action experts or anyone on gambly Twitter, you can now

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Speaker 3: tag at playbook and tell her bot to build your

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602
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603
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604
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605
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 3: Also should have UFC projections now in the Action Network app.

606
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 5: I know the money line projections are in there.

607
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 3: Those are my model projections that I use based upon

608
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 3: rebalancing consensus picks and data that I have across multiple

609
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:25,640
Speaker 3: different data sources, factoring individual averages, what have you. I'm

610
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 3: not sure if the prop odds are going to be

611
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:30,239
Speaker 3: fully in there yet or the prop projections are going

612
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 3: to be fully in there yet. You can input pretty

613
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 3: much all props at this point, but we hope to

614
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 3: have the inside the distance and the winning method projections, etc.

615
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 5: In there shortly.

616
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 3: But if you go to the pro tool in the

617
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 3: action of work gap, the money line projections should be

618
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 3: available for you to prose and I will update those,

619
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 3: you know, continually as we get closer to the fights,

620
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 3: I get better and better data. I'm going to move

621
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 3: on to a couple of fights for fights actually that

622
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,959
Speaker 3: we like from a prop perspective. We'll see if Billy

623
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 3: can convince me to avoid the fight that he's betting on,

624
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 3: because I would be head to head with him, so

625
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 3: I'm going to look for him to give him a

626
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 3: convincing argument for me. In the Odie Osbourne against uh Is,

627
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 3: I believe it's Alibi Adis. I don't know if it's

628
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 3: Alibi Adaris, but it's it's spelled yeah, it's spelt Alibi,

629
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 3: and I know the last name is DearS. It's a

630
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 3: flyway back between Oday Osborne and Alibi. I dearis now

631
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 3: the projection here, and I don't have enough information on

632
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 3: a DearS. I haven't actually watched his tape, so this

633
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 3: is a fight that I haven't bet as of yet.

634
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 3: I don't need to go back and get more information

635
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 3: on it before I would fire. Projection likes me to

636
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 3: bet the over and for Oda to penotentially last all

637
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 3: fifteen minutes, but I know Billy likes the under and

638
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 3: for somebody to finish this fight and for Dearis to

639
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 3: be the guy who is likelier to get that done. So, Billy,

640
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 3: what did you see in your breakdown of this matchup

641
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 3: and what did you think of Deiras and his loss

642
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 3: in the Ultimate Fighter fornality.

643
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 5: Joseph Morales, Yeah, every.

644
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 4: Time I read his name, I pronounced it in my

645
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 4: head as Idris Elba. So he's just Stringer Bell from

646
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 4: the wire to me, even though he's like a much

647
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 4: smaller man from Kazakhstan or whatever. So not a physical resemblance,

648
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 4: but a name resemblance there that I'm rolling with. You

649
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 4: can't stop me. I think the Tough finale said more

650
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 4: about Joseph Morales is grappling than it did anything about

651
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 4: Stringer Bell, because Morales is like he was on like

652
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 4: a college grappling team which I didn't know exists or whatever,

653
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 4: trains at Aka with Cormier and those guys like just

654
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:35,479
Speaker 4: really solid overall and took him down and did that

655
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 4: plan and looked really good doing it. Ody Osbourne doesn't grapple.

656
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 4: He's going to stand there and trade shots with you.

657
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,719
Speaker 4: And Adaris throws all kinds of crazy hard stuff, spinning

658
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 4: kicks things like that. One thing that happens when you spin,

659
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 4: is he really raise the odds of somebody getting knocked out.

660
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 4: It might be you, but you're going to raise the

661
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 4: odds of a knockout happening in general anytime you get

662
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 4: that wild and loose. So I really like the ends

663
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 4: inside the distance. I think one of them finds a

664
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 4: punch that puts the other one down. I think it's

665
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 4: likely to be Adearest, just because I doubt Osborne's durability

666
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 4: at this point. Careery's taking some bad ones and getting

667
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 4: up there a little bit. So his inside the distance

668
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 4: is plus two twenty. Fight to end inside the distance

669
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 4: is minus one thirty six. Obviously, I'll be heavier on

670
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 4: the fight to end inside the distance, so I make

671
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 4: sure you know Odie Finish still pays me a profit.

672
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 4: But I think it's more likely to be Adaris, and

673
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 4: then I'll have a ton of him in DF's for

674
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 4: those reasons, because the stopage at his price point is

675
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 4: really valuable.

676
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, probably fight I'm gonna end up passing on just

677
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 3: because I mean, one, I don't want to be directly

678
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 3: against your red head to head to not not a

679
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 3: particularly confident goes the decision bet for me. Flyweight violence

680
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 3: just tends to end up happening, you know, coming. Yeah,

681
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 3: the flyways just absolutely kill each other. It's you know,

682
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 3: it's it's funny too, because flyweight was phased out of

683
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 3: the UFC because they were considered boring, mostly as Demitrius

684
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 3: Johnson was just cleaning out the division but mostly beating

685
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 3: guys by decision. Now it's the heavyweights who can't finish

686
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 3: each other, and they're just going to sloppy decisions every

687
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 3: time because somebody's been in the heavyweight division needs to

688
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 3: be cut and they need to earn their way back

689
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 3: to the promotion. I'm not fully against that at this point.

690
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 3: They've just been an absolute drag on every single card

691
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 3: that they're on. Thankfully, I don't think we have any

692
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 3: heavyweight fight at UFC Houston. Normally Derek Lewis would be

693
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 3: involved in this card, but yeah, his most recent fight

694
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 3: did not go particularly well either. He's among the reasons

695
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 3: we're complaining about heavyweight MMA at the moment. Let's move

696
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 3: on to a few fights I like, from a proper perspective,

697
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 3: we're going to take it. Actually, from the top of

698
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 3: the card, it's Juliana Miller going against Carly Judas. Now,

699
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 3: this is an extremely binary fight. Judas is also the

700
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 3: biggest favorite on the card, though I believe she's as

701
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 3: low as minus seven fifty. On the higher end, she's

702
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 3: closer to minus nine hundred only he's a two inch

703
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 3: reach of added. But she's the much better striker here,

704
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 3: and she should pretty good takedown defense in her last fight.

705
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 3: Miller is the much better grappler. She has a BJJ

706
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 3: black belt, but she needs this fight on the ground,

707
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 3: just thirty six percent striking defense. On the feat she's

708
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 3: gonna get lit up if she's not able to get takedowns.

709
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 3: I like Judas to finish her and get it done

710
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 3: pretty quickly. Minus one twenty five to win in round

711
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 3: one to round two plus five hundred by round two KO.

712
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 3: Eight to fifty is round three KO. I'm not sure

713
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 3: if Miller ends up making it quite that far. It's

714
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 3: I like the round one round two prop or especially

715
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 3: I think the sweet spot is that round two knockout

716
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 3: prop for Carly Judas as well. You know, if she

717
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 3: happens to get taken down in round one, survives fight,

718
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 3: starts back on the feet in round two, and you

719
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 3: know her price moves into minus four hundred because she

720
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 3: lost the first round. Probably consider an entry at that

721
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 3: point as well, provided she showed she can at least

722
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 3: scramble back up to.

723
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 5: Her feet near the end of the round.

724
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 3: Billy, do you have any thoughts on Judas against Juliana

725
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 3: Miller the first fight on Saturday's card?

726
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 4: No, I like your read, you nailed it. The one

727
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 4: thing I'll say is Juliana Miller is not only just

728
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 4: a grappler, She's like a two thousand and four grappler

729
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 4: where she didn't really learned a ton of wrestling. Ryan, Yes,

730
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 4: I would just say Crown Gracie, who we saw more recently,

731
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 4: same kind of deal, and that's just not a sustainable

732
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 4: plan against someone good. With that said, you know, in

733
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,439
Speaker 4: this women's flyweight you can sneak by for a while

734
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 4: because there's but not against carl Judas, I guess is

735
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,799
Speaker 4: the point, So probably tell you do like the round

736
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,240
Speaker 4: one to two combos something like that. And then also

737
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 4: she's very expensive, and I like a lot of favorites

738
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 4: on this card, so it's hard to get to. But

739
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 4: what a DFS play. I mean, she averaged Judas that is,

740
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 4: averages over ten significant strikes per minute. So if it

741
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 4: goes the distance, she's gonna one hundred fifty significant strikes,

742
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,320
Speaker 4: well within the range of possibility. And if it doesn't,

743
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 4: she gets a knockout. So you know, great play either way,

744
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 4: but by far the most expensive on the card and

745
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:46,280
Speaker 4: it's hard to find value.

746
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 3: May also get the round two knockout with like a

747
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 3: ton of volume behind it as well.

748
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 5: Very possible.

749
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 4: There's many ways that to go, right.

750
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be using a bunch of Judas this week,

751
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:59,359
Speaker 3: and another fighter I'll be using wherever possible, Yadier del

752
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:03,839
Speaker 3: Val against Jordan leave It one of our podcast favorites. Unfortunately, though,

753
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,240
Speaker 3: for Jordan, this matchup just could not imagine a bigger

754
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:10,359
Speaker 3: physicality differential between two fighters. Why do you be an

755
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 3: actual good athlete, Jordan Leave It? Like me a law student,

756
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 3: So it's like if you threw me in BJJ training

757
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,359
Speaker 3: for my entire life, let me hit pads a few

758
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 3: times instead. Yeah, you're good enough to be at this

759
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 3: level and then you just get mauled by a dude

760
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,280
Speaker 3: who's an actual world class athlete.

761
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,240
Speaker 5: So best of luck to Jordan Levitt this weekend.

762
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 3: I think he's just gonna get out muscled like we've

763
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 3: seen against in other fights. Patty Pimblett, for instance, took

764
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:39,799
Speaker 3: the back, ended up, choking him out. I think that's

765
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 3: how this one ultimately goes. I actually show value on

766
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 3: Delval to win by submission. He says highest plus two ninety.

767
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 3: I make that line closer to plus one fifty. His

768
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 3: knockout prop is favored. I'm going the other direction. I also, though,

769
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 3: like him to win in round one round two at

770
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 3: minus one fifteen. And if you parlay the Miller or

771
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 3: sorry the Judas and Yadier Doval props to win in

772
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,760
Speaker 3: round one to round two minus one twenty five minus

773
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:10,399
Speaker 3: one fifteen, that pays out closer to about plus two

774
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 3: forty to get both of those fighters to win in

775
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 3: the first ten minutes. Philly, how do you feel about

776
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 3: the submission prop on Yadier de Val? How do you

777
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 3: feel about the round one round two prop as well?

778
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 4: Love both of those. I used YDV as my climb

779
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,360
Speaker 4: bat If anyone's been following along with that, I'm on

780
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 4: step five. He was like minus three forty earlier in

781
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 4: the week, which was just nuts. Like it's moved out

782
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 4: closer to minus five hundred at this point. The crucial

783
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 4: part of that, of your analogy that you made is

784
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 4: then they threw you into a fight against like an

785
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:42,360
Speaker 4: elite level judo guy who you're not going to be

786
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 4: able to take it down because that scenario you made up,

787
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 4: like you him in there against the guy with some

788
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 4: striking and no grappling. Yeah, you'll have some wins. And

789
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 4: as the Monkey King has just a god awful matchup

790
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:54,879
Speaker 4: for him. He's also going down to one forty five,

791
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 4: which probably helps the athleticism a touch, but not against

792
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 4: YDV man. That dude's a tank, so horrible matchup. The

793
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:02,919
Speaker 4: other thing I'll have to add, I don't know when

794
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 4: Draftings will put these up. Seen some other sites, said

795
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:08,399
Speaker 4: Jordan Levittz takedown prop at one and a half. Oh,

796
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 4: he's not gonna take YDV. Now, I don't know how

797
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 4: we think that'll happen. So if you can get under

798
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,399
Speaker 4: one and a half takedowns on Levitt one, you can't

799
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,760
Speaker 4: take someone down when you're unconscious and too, he probably

800
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 4: can't take him down even if he is conscious. So

801
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 4: that is like if it comes up on draftings at

802
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 4: that same number, which it might not, that's that's gonna

803
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 4: be a big bet for me as well.

804
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 3: Good shout out by you in the takedown prop there, Yeah,

805
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 3: that I'll be looking for in addition to the Jeff

806
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 3: Neil plus two to fifty over half a takedown prop

807
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:38,280
Speaker 3: as well. Another fighter I like to finish things potentially

808
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 3: though later on Al Denthoria against Louis Garula. Grule is

809
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 3: talented for round but he tends to fade after five minutes,

810
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 3: and I think Choria is really going to take over

811
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 3: after that point. He's five years younger. I think he's

812
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,840
Speaker 3: the much better prospect of the pair, but he trains

813
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 3: with Josh Vann who has a very similar style at building.

814
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,879
Speaker 3: Kind of fight style that I want to see from

815
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 3: Choria in this matchup is round two and round three

816
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 3: props are really nice prices six to one and ten

817
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 3: to one respectively. They can also can look at his

818
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 3: money line live after round one. Additionally, I like the

819
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:12,920
Speaker 3: fight ten inside that isn't plus one fifteen. I make

820
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 3: it about minus one twenty five. So if he gets

821
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:17,839
Speaker 3: finished in the first round, we're still going to get

822
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 3: paid out, even if you're sprinkling those round two and

823
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 3: round three props late. But ideally he finishes this fight

824
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 3: in the second or third round, we end up cashing

825
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 3: both bets and you could take a look again at

826
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 3: his money line live after five minutes. Billy, how did

827
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:33,360
Speaker 3: you break this one down between Choria and Guruling?

828
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:36,239
Speaker 4: Yeah? No thoughts on this did not get to this

829
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 4: one one. Just a little fun thing I'll add in there.

830
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:43,720
Speaker 4: The foundation style of Choria officially on topology. Ko Gang,

831
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 4: I s so, I don't know what that means. It

832
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 4: used to be a gem. Now it's a foundational style.

833
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:48,439
Speaker 4: It might be like a T shirt you can buy

834
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 4: but shout out to the Kogang or co Gang. I

835
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,839
Speaker 4: don't even know that I'm saying it right. Nobody knows.

836
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 4: Nobody knows, but it's provocative. So yeah, Cogang in the

837
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:57,839
Speaker 4: building in Houston this week.

838
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,399
Speaker 3: Maybe it's like military fighting systems, where it's the gym

839
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 3: and a fighting style.

840
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 4: You know, it's more of just a concept. I think

841
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 4: it's like something you feel in your heart than anything tangible.

842
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 4: But yeah, every time I see the Cogang pop up,

843
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:11,879
Speaker 4: I'm like, what what are we doing here? But we're

844
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 4: gonna typology Mushard, typology muscler. You just fill that out

845
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 4: on your own before they before they look into it.

846
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're gonna have to do some research into the

847
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 3: Cogang Kogang. It could be either, We're not really sure

848
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 3: at this point. Any information, feel free to contact us

849
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 3: because this is a mystery that has eluded us for

850
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 3: well over a year at this point, and it continues.

851
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 4: So we could use an official apparel sponsor for the

852
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,800
Speaker 4: podcast Cogang or Kogang, So I will.

853
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 3: Proudly wear some Cogang or ko gang whatever it is.

854
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:43,359
Speaker 3: I'll learn the right way to call it, probably wear

855
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 3: some of their apparel if they're willing to send it over.

856
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 3: I might go and purchase some on my own at

857
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 3: this point. Anyway to support a considering the amount that

858
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 3: we talk about, or just to eat the Jokelert, Let's

859
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 3: move on our best and final bets. There's a number

860
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 3: of fights that we both like here a little bit

861
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 3: more than the rest on this card. These are definitely

862
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,919
Speaker 3: best bets for me. I mean, I have a little

863
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 3: bit more risk on these relative to you know, the

864
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:09,320
Speaker 3: props and whatnot. All money line plays straight up for me.

865
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 3: Billy and I are an agreement on one of these fights, though,

866
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 3: So let's start there between Sergei Spevak and Ante Delia. Now, Billy,

867
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 3: I know you write your luck ratings column every week.

868
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 3: Typically you're discussing split decisions. I don't know if you

869
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 3: included Ante Delia in your column this week, but if

870
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 3: you did, it would have been the most unique instance

871
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 3: ever in that he won his fight but then lost

872
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 3: his fight because the refs messed up. While there, Cortesa

873
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 3: coasted it, did a great job acting, and Ante Delia

874
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 3: went over to celebrate with his quarterer and totally Cardio

875
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 3: dumped and adrenaline dumped because he celebrated after winning his fight.

876
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:51,840
Speaker 5: Now, the fact that he was.

877
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:55,240
Speaker 3: Able to hurt Waldough but also Walder didn't seem particularly

878
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 3: phased by it was extremely awkward. That said, in the

879
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 3: first five minutes of this match, he should have a

880
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 3: massive speed advantage over serge speedback, and frankly, I think

881
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 3: he already fought this fight. When I was thinking of

882
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 3: this matchup, I was like, didn't he already fail? Oh?

883
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:12,320
Speaker 3: It was Marsine Tibera. I mean the Marsine Tibura matchup

884
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:16,399
Speaker 3: is basically the state like a slightly slower older guy

885
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 3: relative to Serge Speedback. But by and large, I think

886
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 3: try Bura is maybe even better at like keeping, so

887
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 3: Stafe fighting into the clinch. Speedback just kind of gets

888
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 3: hung out to dry at range, and I think Delia's

889
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 3: hands are going to be too quick for him. So

890
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:33,360
Speaker 3: we both like Delia here. I make him about minus

891
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 3: one sixty. I think you could take him up to

892
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 3: minus one fifty. But I also like his round one

893
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 3: ko prop as well. At plus two to eighty. I

894
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 3: think he gets this one done pretty quick. It is binary, though,

895
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 3: I mean you're talking about a plus seven to minus

896
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 3: three significant strike differential per minute and a seventy two

897
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:57,800
Speaker 3: percent versus sixteen percent control rate and clinch and grappling exchanges. Granted,

898
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 3: pretty small sample for Delia to this point, but I

899
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 3: think it was one of the first bets you entered

900
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:03,879
Speaker 3: in the app this week, and he might have gotten

901
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 3: a much better price. Did you get a better price

902
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 3: than one as well?

903
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 4: It was a worse price. He actually opened it like

904
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 4: minus one fifty. I've been throwing half of a on it,

905
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 4: you know, about every ten cents since since that happened. Yeah,

906
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 4: you nailed it. The first line of my luck ratings was,

907
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 4: this is an extremely unique case from a luck standpoint,

908
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 4: because it's not really luck. It's just a weird situation

909
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:30,719
Speaker 4: out there. Only thing I'll add to your analysis, which is, again,

910
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:32,799
Speaker 4: you could have done this one without me and got

911
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 4: most of the points normally in a fight like that

912
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 4: with Delia it was three months ago, and he legitimately

913
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 4: got knocked out after that. You know, the second knockout

914
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 4: of that fight was more legitimate three months ago. You go, ah,

915
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 4: that's a little concerning. Sergey Spivack has like I don't know,

916
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 4: seventy five UFC fights, zero knockdowns in that time stance,

917
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 4: So almost against almost any other heavyweight, I would go, yeah,

918
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 4: he's undervalued because of the loss. But you got to

919
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 4: watch out for this not this one. So yeah, it's

920
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 4: all it's wheels up. I'm flying if off to anti

921
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 4: Delhia land on this one. And I haven't tracked them

922
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:09,959
Speaker 4: all in the app, but I've continued to bet small

923
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 4: increments every time the price drops. Again, I go, okay,

924
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 4: here's a little more.

925
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,479
Speaker 5: Do you like that Rombel Koprop as well plus do Eady.

926
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:19,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've or I can see Ko and John. I

927
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:21,400
Speaker 4: haven't looked at the lines on that, like I've been

928
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 4: so committed to his money line before those drops came

929
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,320
Speaker 4: out that I don't need like my whole life savings

930
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 4: on Anti Delia this weekend. But yeah, sure great, I

931
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:31,440
Speaker 4: like that one as well. I would check out just

932
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:34,240
Speaker 4: the general Ko because he always the first twenty seconds

933
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:35,720
Speaker 4: around too, always trives me crazy.

934
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 5: On this other fight you like from.

935
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 3: Best Bets perspective, Ramis Brahimi against Putas Soriano. Big numbers

936
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 3: on goes the decision and Brahimi by decision. Here, I

937
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:50,320
Speaker 3: actually think Brahimi can win a decision here. He's around

938
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 3: seven to one to win a decision like you just

939
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 3: got a lot better. I mean, you can make the

940
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 3: argument for it, but clearly gotten better dealt with health

941
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:02,799
Speaker 3: issues earlier in his career as well. I might prefer

942
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:04,839
Speaker 3: if I'm like choosing a guy to live that after

943
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 3: round one, I think I decided as brianim Is, we

944
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 3: tend to see poota fade and his power really drops

945
00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 3: off after five minutes, so I might take a very

946
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 3: small stab here on Brahimi by decision at seven to one.

947
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:18,440
Speaker 3: I'm curious how you see it playing out and what

948
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 3: you see his I mean, his likeliest winning method is

949
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 3: obviously submission. He's He's won twelve of his thirteen fights

950
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 3: by submission. The other one he ended up knocking out

951
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 3: his opponent. But do you get the argument for him

952
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 3: potentially winning a decision and being able to be competitive

953
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:32,839
Speaker 3: with Poona in an extended fight.

954
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 5: Is that why you like him on the money line.

955
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a big part of it. I think I

956
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:39,439
Speaker 4: have no idea what the line is, but decision only,

957
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 4: I'm brihim. I would also make a lot of sense

958
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 4: to you on a dick your toes when that goes hard.

959
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 4: It's an interesting fight because Brian my obviously a better

960
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 4: grappler known as a grappler. I've been very impressed with

961
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 4: his striking in his recent fight Yea Puna was like

962
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:55,399
Speaker 4: a pure power puncher mixed in a lot of grappling lately,

963
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:57,880
Speaker 4: and it's been impressive with it. The big thing for me, though,

964
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:00,080
Speaker 4: is Brian is like my case study of the you

965
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:03,000
Speaker 4: better guy. The second fight after a serious injury, his

966
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:05,720
Speaker 4: first fight after a serious injury was against Tempa Grimbo.

967
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 4: Just couldn't really get going. Look kind of bad, look,

968
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 4: kind of rusty. He's rattled off three in a row

969
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 4: and we keep getting like really good lines on him.

970
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 4: So he was plus one twenty against Mickey gall which

971
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 4: was a steal. Then he was, let's see, against Billy

972
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,840
Speaker 4: ray Goff, he was plus three ten again, that's crazy.

973
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 4: Who's Billy ray Gough. Austin Vanderfold in his last fight

974
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 4: plus two forty slight, you know, favorite in this one.

975
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 4: But I feel like we're learning the same lesson over

976
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:32,800
Speaker 4: and over again that he's actually really good when his

977
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 4: neck works, which it didn't for a while in there,

978
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 4: and is a crucial thing. Will be a scary couple

979
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 4: of minutes if Puna's trying to stand and bang with him.

980
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:42,840
Speaker 4: We get through that. I think we got it. So

981
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:45,720
Speaker 4: live bet, the decision bet is a great look. Decision

982
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 4: only or just money line. I like bribing my in

983
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:49,240
Speaker 4: all those forms.

984
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 3: Decision only plus two of five and agree on the

985
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 3: live bet as well.

986
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:54,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, Yeah, I'm gonna have that one.

987
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 5: Both really solid angles.

988
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm into the fact that we both like his

989
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 3: striking improvements and his ability to win an extended fight

990
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 3: more than you know just looking at the Wikipedia and

991
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,720
Speaker 3: being like, oh, thirteen finishes in thirteen fights. This guy's

992
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 3: gotten a lot better, and I think he's capable of sustaining.

993
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 3: Especially it's an opponent like this who is pretty much

994
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 3: guaranteed to fade after five to seven minutes in terms

995
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 3: of his effectiveness and his power.

996
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 5: So yeah, interesting fight there.

997
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,399
Speaker 4: I would have liked reversed those if I was making

998
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 4: those lines, so that's crazy to me.

999
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:29,839
Speaker 3: I would have made it closer to a pick him.

1000
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 3: But yeah, plus two of five seems very generous. I'll

1001
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 3: definitely be taking a small stab on that, and probably

1002
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:41,359
Speaker 3: the uh where the decision prop at seven to one

1003
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:43,880
Speaker 3: as well, probably puto point one on each baby and

1004
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 3: hope to make a unit if he ends up winning

1005
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 3: a decision.

1006
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 5: Ultimately, a couple of fights.

1007
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 3: That I like from a best bets perspective, again, a

1008
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 3: little bit better than all the rest. Not going to

1009
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 3: call them final bets, these are indeed best bets, and

1010
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 3: that's Carlos Leal against cheaty An Takuani, another fighter coming

1011
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:03,879
Speaker 3: off of a knockout loss. His money line has also

1012
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 3: moved in pretty aggressively too. He was minus two hundred earlier.

1013
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 4: In the week.

1014
00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 3: You can get him at minus one twenty now I

1015
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 3: make him closer to minus one forty coming off of

1016
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:16,320
Speaker 3: that knockout loss the Muslim Salakov, where he was a

1017
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 3: big favorite, just got caught with a counter Cheety's the

1018
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:22,759
Speaker 3: bigger man fortress taller has a six inentreach advantage and

1019
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 3: is a very dangerous fighter early, but he's also thirty

1020
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 3: seven years old, and he cuts a lot of weight

1021
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 3: to get to one seventy. He actually missed weight two

1022
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 3: fights back. He has a he strained his voice. He

1023
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 3: sounds the way he does sounds like a packet a

1024
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 3: smoker because of a bad weightcut. So the weightcuts have

1025
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 3: not been kind of cheaty, both in terms of his

1026
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 3: physicality but also in terms of his cardio in extended fights.

1027
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 3: Whereas Carlos Laal I mean certainly very high up in

1028
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 3: luck ratings for his loss through not Fokkardinoff, which was

1029
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 3: a just a straight eye line robbery, one of the

1030
00:47:56,719 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 3: worst in recent memory. But Carlos Layal out as good

1031
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:03,359
Speaker 3: at sustaining and building as any fighter in the sport.

1032
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 3: Definitely on some supplements has a lot of backne but

1033
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 3: he throws a million strikes per minute and can do

1034
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 3: it for all fifteen minutes of the fight.

1035
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 5: So really the main.

1036
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 3: Concern is the recent knockout loss, on what his durability

1037
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 3: looks like coming back from that loss, and the potential

1038
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:21,320
Speaker 3: that he could get overwhelmed in the opening round. But

1039
00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 3: I like Layall pre fight at minus one twenty all

1040
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 3: the way up to minus one thirty five, and I

1041
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 3: like him live, especially after round one. I think that

1042
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:32,239
Speaker 3: may be the best price point and the best entry

1043
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 3: point on lay All because Chidia should be dangerous early

1044
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 3: projections like the over or the goes to decision here,

1045
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 3: but this should be a very violent fight. I'd be

1046
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:43,640
Speaker 3: pretty surprised if it didn't finish. It's just a huge

1047
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:46,360
Speaker 3: number on it to go all fifteen minutes, Billy, I

1048
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:48,479
Speaker 3: would imagine you expect to finish here as well.

1049
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 5: How do you view lay All around minus one twenty

1050
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:52,360
Speaker 5: in terms of value?

1051
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 4: Yeah? I love that. That's another one I've added to

1052
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 4: my betslip while you were talking, because I was get

1053
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:01,360
Speaker 4: close to that on my own. Such as there is

1054
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:03,799
Speaker 4: a good knockout loss, I mean there obviously isn't it's

1055
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 4: better to not get knocked out and it's better to

1056
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 4: not lose, such as there is a good one, you know,

1057
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 4: a forty two second quick knockout to Muslim Salakov and

1058
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 4: then eight months off, seven months off, whatever it's been

1059
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 4: is about as good of a scenario as you can

1060
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 4: be in coming off a knockout loss. So I'm not

1061
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:22,719
Speaker 4: as concerned about that as we usually talk about guys

1062
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 4: with the durability issues. You know, like he wasn't just

1063
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:27,920
Speaker 4: getting dominated for ten minutes and TKO, like he just

1064
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:30,439
Speaker 4: got caught. It happened. Sometimes, even if you're really good,

1065
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:33,479
Speaker 4: still a little scary against a guy like Chad who's

1066
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 4: got some pot for a little bit. But yeah, I'll

1067
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:38,719
Speaker 4: have a small play on layout pre fight and then live.

1068
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:41,400
Speaker 4: Even like part way through round one, I think if

1069
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 4: you can get it might actually be the best way

1070
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:46,520
Speaker 4: to do it. Those are tricky. If you wait to

1071
00:49:46,560 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 4: the end of round one and it's minus one fifty

1072
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 4: or whatever, I'll sacrifice the line move on that as well.

1073
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 3: Another frider I think is undervalued, Michelle Pahera around minus

1074
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 3: one forty five. I make them closer minus one to

1075
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:02,880
Speaker 3: eighty going up against Zachary Reese is Reese very similar

1076
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 3: to Juliana Miller in terms of the striking defense all

1077
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 3: the way down at thirty nine percent. He's also a

1078
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 3: guy who tends to accept bottom position as well and

1079
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 3: look for submissions off of his back. So he's just

1080
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 3: generally not a good minute winner because he accepts a

1081
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 3: lot of damage and spends a lot of time trying

1082
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:21,799
Speaker 3: to fight off of his back looking for submissions. Now,

1083
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 3: Michelle Pajara does a lot of dumb stuff and is

1084
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 3: very capable of jumping right into a submission after hurding

1085
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:30,839
Speaker 3: Zachary Rees, but in general he should be the better

1086
00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:34,320
Speaker 3: wrestler here. He is a very competent jiu jitsu practitioner,

1087
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:37,799
Speaker 3: in fact, probably underutilizes that aspect of his skill set,

1088
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 3: and he's clearly the better striker in this matchup as well.

1089
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:43,879
Speaker 3: I think the main concern is his motivation, the fact

1090
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:47,240
Speaker 3: that he's looked flat and his recent performances, albeit against

1091
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 3: better competition, where Reese is now taking a step up

1092
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 3: in competition here, but he just seems like a guy who,

1093
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 3: after his loss to Fluffy Hernandez, may have checked out,

1094
00:50:57,120 --> 00:50:59,799
Speaker 3: you know, realizing he's not a potential future.

1095
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 5: I don't condect. He's just showing up for the paycheck.

1096
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:06,799
Speaker 3: So motivation is my primary concern for Michelle per Haa

1097
00:51:06,880 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 3: this weekend. The recent losses, you know, potential cut looming.

1098
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:14,279
Speaker 3: Maybe a career in karate combat suits him best because

1099
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 3: he could do some crazy stuff there. Who's who's the

1100
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 3: other guy that we had, the Brazilian dude who would

1101
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 3: just like dance in the cage and like basically did

1102
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 3: like capa wara stuff.

1103
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:25,720
Speaker 5: He ended up going over to karate combat.

1104
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 4: I'm yeah, I would have said, but yeah, I know

1105
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 4: who you mean.

1106
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:36,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, very very similar fighting style and entertainment style. But yeah,

1107
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 3: I think this is a matchup for pre Haara to

1108
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 3: potentially get back on track. He should be able to

1109
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:44,440
Speaker 3: punch Reese really hard in the face right from the

1110
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 3: start of the fight, and if not, he should be

1111
00:51:46,239 --> 00:51:47,480
Speaker 3: able to take him down and get on top of

1112
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:51,040
Speaker 3: him for extended amount as well. Billy, do you have

1113
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 3: any thoughts on Pajara against Reese this weekend? And then

1114
00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 3: we have one more fight we're gonna discuss before we

1115
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:56,520
Speaker 3: get out of here.

1116
00:51:57,680 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I hear you, and I don't disagree with anything

1117
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 4: you said, but there's a better way to bet it,

1118
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 4: and that is Michelle paid to land as many as

1119
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:07,399
Speaker 4: one takedown at plus one fifty. I've had a note

1120
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 4: on my document cheat that I work off of all

1121
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:12,399
Speaker 4: week that when Michelle paid, the takedown's open. I want

1122
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 4: to be a part of that. I think they put

1123
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:16,360
Speaker 4: it up literally between when we started this podcast and

1124
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:17,759
Speaker 4: when you got to that point, because it was not

1125
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:21,560
Speaker 4: when I checked right beforehand. First of all, there's the

1126
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 4: motivation thing, but coming off three losses, this is one

1127
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 4: where you really need to win a fight more than

1128
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 4: you need to do a backflip or other cool stuff.

1129
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 4: And that's when guys who don't wrestle enough tend to

1130
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 4: go into the wrestling is when you need it right,

1131
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:35,520
Speaker 4: like you need to win. We're not trying to win

1132
00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:37,400
Speaker 4: fight of the night. We're just trying to win. And

1133
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:39,799
Speaker 4: to your point, Zach Reese likes to do jiu jitsu,

1134
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:42,000
Speaker 4: and he likes to do jiu jitsu off his back,

1135
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:45,360
Speaker 4: so it's the perfect storm plus one fifty. I just

1136
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 4: I like Michelle paid his money line that's fine, but

1137
00:52:48,080 --> 00:52:51,400
Speaker 4: you're getting a way better price on a very correlated

1138
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 4: outcome with him winning, which is him landing at least

1139
00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:55,360
Speaker 4: one takedown final.

1140
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:57,680
Speaker 5: Fight that we get it to Jacoby Smith against Josiah.

1141
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 4: Josiah Harrall signed with the UFC a couple years ago.

1142
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 4: In his pre fight medical exam, they discovered some kind

1143
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 4: of weird brain mal for operation, had to go get

1144
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 4: brain surgery and was out for an extended period of

1145
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:10,239
Speaker 4: time since he came back. I'm going to look this

1146
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 4: up while I staw a little bit here, but it's

1147
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 4: three or four fights in like a super short time

1148
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:19,160
Speaker 4: period to earn his way spot back, his spot back

1149
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:21,920
Speaker 4: in the UFC. Yeah, Since the beginning of twenty twenty five,

1150
00:53:21,960 --> 00:53:25,759
Speaker 4: he's won four fights, all finishes, one against the young

1151
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 4: Assassin who's like forty something year to old Melvin gu Yard,

1152
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:31,879
Speaker 4: but some tough guys in there as well. Now coming

1153
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:34,279
Speaker 4: up on short Night is to fight Jacoby Smith, d

1154
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 4: one wrestler from Oklahoma State. I reached out to one

1155
00:53:37,600 --> 00:53:41,840
Speaker 4: of my BJJ buddies, black Belt Knows Josia, because Josiah

1156
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:44,240
Speaker 4: trained a lot in Ohio is at some local tournaments.

1157
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:48,320
Speaker 4: The friend from BJA also Lyrical, who does the BJJA

1158
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 4: inspired rap that you should all check out get for that.

1159
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 4: Volume two is out all streaming services but Lear let

1160
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:55,759
Speaker 4: me know that Harold really well known sent me a

1161
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 4: clip Harold hit the Demetrius Johnson like suplex armbar in

1162
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 4: a fight, great grappler. The problem with that when you're

1163
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:04,600
Speaker 4: fighting a D one wrestler is that I think this

1164
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:07,120
Speaker 4: has a very strong possibility of just being a bad

1165
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 4: kickboxing match because Jacoby Smith probably shouldn't engage with the

1166
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:13,840
Speaker 4: ground game at all of Harold. I don't think Harold

1167
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:16,600
Speaker 4: can land takedowns on Jacoby Smith, and Smith is just

1168
00:54:16,640 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 4: a better athlete, so could probably win the striking just

1169
00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:22,360
Speaker 4: based on that. But I'm very excited about Harold's prospects

1170
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:25,160
Speaker 4: moving forward when he's not fighting all American wrestlers. So

1171
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 4: that is my overall take. I don't think we even

1172
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:30,520
Speaker 4: have ghost to decision up there as a bat right now.

1173
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 4: I'm saying over one and a half on draftings. If

1174
00:54:33,320 --> 00:54:34,879
Speaker 4: the over two and a half is you know, super

1175
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:38,359
Speaker 4: juicy plus money or Ghost Decisions plus money, might take

1176
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:41,279
Speaker 4: it because there's just a strong chance of like grapplers

1177
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 4: poorly kickboxing each other in this fight.

1178
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:46,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know that's that was going to be my

1179
00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 5: argument to you.

1180
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:49,040
Speaker 3: It's one and a half minus one eighty eight, which

1181
00:54:49,120 --> 00:54:51,719
Speaker 3: means the ghost of the decision should be around even money.

1182
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 3: That's that's where I would lean. I haven't projected this

1183
00:54:56,520 --> 00:54:59,160
Speaker 3: one out full yet because you don't really have odds

1184
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:01,439
Speaker 3: for it. It was late booking. But it does seem

1185
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 3: like a tough debut matchup for Harold. Not only do

1186
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:07,879
Speaker 3: we like Jacoby Smith, but just stylistically, you're come from

1187
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 3: a grappling base. You're trying to wrestle a guy who's

1188
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:12,759
Speaker 3: a wrestler who's also bigger than you.

1189
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:13,799
Speaker 5: Three just color four a.

1190
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,520
Speaker 3: Treat advantage for Jacoby Smith. So yeah, I think this

1191
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 3: is a really tough matchup for Harold. Does seem like

1192
00:55:19,200 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 3: he has talent, but I agree. I was initially thinking,

1193
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:26,360
Speaker 3: given the stylistic nature, this one to go all fifteen

1194
00:55:26,440 --> 00:55:29,279
Speaker 3: minutes and we should be getting I would imagine right

1195
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 3: around even money on that prop. So I'll certainly be

1196
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:34,319
Speaker 3: looking out for that one. Do you have a price

1197
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:35,080
Speaker 3: target in mind for that?

1198
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:38,440
Speaker 4: Yeah? I think anything plus money is about where I was.

1199
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 4: I mean, that's easy to say, like off the top

1200
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 4: of your head, like, yeah, better than fifty percent chance,

1201
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:44,200
Speaker 4: but that's about where I would put it. I don't

1202
00:55:44,200 --> 00:55:45,879
Speaker 4: have an exact number in mind.

1203
00:55:46,160 --> 00:55:48,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just want to see if I have an

1204
00:55:48,239 --> 00:55:50,800
Speaker 3: initial projection. I don't think I did, just because I

1205
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:55,200
Speaker 3: didn't have any prop odds for these guys. Yeah, I

1206
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 3: didn't have any initial number, So we'll see where I

1207
00:55:57,880 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 3: end up projecting that one out.

1208
00:55:59,239 --> 00:56:00,360
Speaker 4: But I don't do it.

1209
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:01,520
Speaker 5: We got to all fourteen fights.

1210
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 4: That'll do it.

1211
00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:02,879
Speaker 5: For a UFC betting preview.

1212
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,359
Speaker 3: You can find more USC betting content for both Billy

1213
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:08,440
Speaker 3: and myself on actionoverork dot com. And remember, if you'd

1214
00:56:08,520 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 3: like to instantly tail some of the bets that we

1215
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 3: discussed on today's show, look for quipped sent links both

1216
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 3: in the podcast and the video description, or visit actionover

1217
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:19,480
Speaker 3: dot com slash bet now. Don't forget to download the

1218
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:21,400
Speaker 3: free award winning Action over gapp and sign up for

1219
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:25,200
Speaker 3: Action Pro for mediate access to expert picks and analysis

1220
00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:26,440
Speaker 3: and my pro projections.

1221
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:29,400
Speaker 5: Best luck with all your bets this weekend, enjoying the violence.

1222
00:56:29,440 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening.

1223
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:33,000
Speaker 3: We'll see you back here next week. For the next

1224
00:56:33,040 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 3: ten weeks, got a big run UFC cards coming up with.

1225
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:50,320
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1226
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1227
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:56,240
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