WEBVTT - Accelerating Dramatic Trends.  Ian Bremmer Talks to A&G 

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<v Speaker 1>It was actually Ian Bremer's Twitter feed where I came

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<v Speaker 1>across the meme of I'd like to cancel my subscription

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<v Speaker 1>to one. I've experienced the free seven day trial and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not interested. I follow Ian Bremer's Twitter feed on

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<v Speaker 1>a fairly regular basis. We've had him on at the

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<v Speaker 1>in the January of a year for years now. As

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<v Speaker 1>usually he's got his Global Risk List out. I was

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<v Speaker 1>fascinated by something Ian Bremer um had a while back

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<v Speaker 1>on how there are a bunch of things that you

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<v Speaker 1>know we're likely going to happen anyway. They got sped

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<v Speaker 1>up because of the coronavirus, and one of them is

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<v Speaker 1>our crumbling relationship with China. But anyway, Ian Bremer is

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<v Speaker 1>indeed the president and founder of Eurasia Group of Political Research,

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<v Speaker 1>risk research and consulting firm that consults all over the globe.

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<v Speaker 1>And Ian joins us now a good morning or a

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<v Speaker 1>good day, sir, How are you ye? Happy to be

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<v Speaker 1>back with you guys. Thank you. It's it's always stimulating,

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<v Speaker 1>and I will say the Global List is incredibly thought

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<v Speaker 1>provoking this year, even by the standards of the previous years.

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<v Speaker 1>And we will get to that in a moment or two. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I was fascinated by your take on a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>things that we're going to happen anyway over a long time,

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<v Speaker 1>got sped up by the coronavirus. Can you give us

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<v Speaker 1>an example a couple of those? Sure? I mean the

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<v Speaker 1>US China confrontation, the lack of trust, their growth, all

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<v Speaker 1>of that has been going on. The the disruptions that

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<v Speaker 1>have come from technology, both in terms of our lives

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<v Speaker 1>and social media and the polarization that comes from that,

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<v Speaker 1>but also in terms of people that aren't in the

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<v Speaker 1>knowledge economy, no longer having anything productive to contribute um

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<v Speaker 1>to capitalism, and the disenfranchisement that comes as a consequence

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<v Speaker 1>climate change, and and the move away from fossil fuels.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, all of these things trends that were coming

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<v Speaker 1>accelerated dramatically on the back of coronavirus. One of the

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<v Speaker 1>topics we talked about a lot around here, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's difficult to predict, obviously, because change keeps coming. But

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<v Speaker 1>what's gonna happen to American cities, commercial real estate in

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<v Speaker 1>the wake of the COVID thing. We have multiple friends

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<v Speaker 1>and multiple industries to say, not only do we not

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<v Speaker 1>need office space anymore. We've seen our people's productivity surge. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>there are a lot of the CEOs I talked to

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<v Speaker 1>of big companies are all experimenting. So they will try

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<v Speaker 1>some hoteling and they don't you know, where you get

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<v Speaker 1>people to come, you know, in maybe two days, three

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<v Speaker 1>days a week. Uh. Some of them trying you know,

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<v Speaker 1>virtual completely with a bunch of their teams. But let's

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<v Speaker 1>keep in mind a couple of things. First of all,

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<v Speaker 1>if you're a big bank and um, you're virtual completely

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<v Speaker 1>and you lose big pieces of business to the guy

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<v Speaker 1>that is down the street and out hustling you and

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<v Speaker 1>sending his people in person, uh, you're not going to

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<v Speaker 1>be virtual for much longer. That's number one. Um. Number

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<v Speaker 1>two is uh, when your people are virtual and you

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<v Speaker 1>used to be in New York City, Uh, they may

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<v Speaker 1>be equally productive, but you will no longer be willing

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<v Speaker 1>to pay them New York City rates salaries. And if

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<v Speaker 1>someone can do their job as easily, um, an hour away,

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<v Speaker 1>they can probably do their job as easily in the Philippines,

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<v Speaker 1>in Brazil or in India. And I think we have

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<v Speaker 1>to understand that the disruption that is coming from the virtualization.

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<v Speaker 1>The disruption is coming from happening, and of course that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to transform commercial real estate, but I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>that's by anywhere close to the biggest thing that's coming.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking before we get specifically to your riskless I

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<v Speaker 1>saw you tweet this yesterday, and I just want to

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<v Speaker 1>know what you meant you tweeted out. The business model

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<v Speaker 1>of social media companies is incompatible with a healthy civil society.

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<v Speaker 1>Explain that well, because the business model of social media

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<v Speaker 1>UM is to maximize uh, the eyeball attention that they

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<v Speaker 1>get in order to sell advertisements, and UM that means

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<v Speaker 1>and the way you do that is by productizing the

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<v Speaker 1>user you and me. And when when you do that,

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<v Speaker 1>the most effective way to do it is to polarize.

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<v Speaker 1>The most effective way to do it is to let

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<v Speaker 1>all the trolls on because you want to maximize the

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<v Speaker 1>eyeballs to have more disinformation that It's not that Facebook

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<v Speaker 1>UM doesn't care about disinformation on their site. Actually it's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of intrinsic to their business model. It's not the

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter doesn't care about trolls and bots on their site.

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<v Speaker 1>It's intrinsic to their business model. It actually drives a

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<v Speaker 1>lot more people. It drives a lot more eyeballs. So

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<v Speaker 1>you know, that doesn't mean that you can't continue to

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<v Speaker 1>have them, but it means either the business model needs

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<v Speaker 1>to change away from advertisement, you have to charge, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a fee for subscription, which would make it very different

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of improving enhancing the user experiences the first

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<v Speaker 1>and foremost thing you're doing, and or you need to

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<v Speaker 1>regulate it. But the model as it exists right now

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<v Speaker 1>is antithetical to a healthy, functioning civil society, and we

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<v Speaker 1>are experiencing that in a very big way in the

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<v Speaker 1>United States. I personally truly believe that the vast majority

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<v Speaker 1>of people that rioted and and stormed the capital just

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<v Speaker 1>forty eight hours ago believed a number of things about

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<v Speaker 1>fundamental politics in the US that we're completely untrue. Oh,

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<v Speaker 1>the poor woman that got weaponized this information, the poor

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<v Speaker 1>woman that got shot dead. I don't know if you

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<v Speaker 1>went through her Twitter feed, but she mean heard her

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<v Speaker 1>news feed was different than mine, right, And it strikes

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<v Speaker 1>me in from your description that social media is pornographic

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<v Speaker 1>in the in the broader sense, not just sexual pornography pornography,

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<v Speaker 1>but ideological pornography, just constant conflict anger, that sort of thing,

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<v Speaker 1>because that's the most titilating. But having said that, and uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and having mentioned yesterday or the other day's craziness, I

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<v Speaker 1>know the Eurasia Group's top risk for one was already

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that about half the country rejects the president

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<v Speaker 1>of the United States. Um, how do you think that

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<v Speaker 1>recent events might have affected if you were rewriting the

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<v Speaker 1>risk list your description of that risk? Man? I mean

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<v Speaker 1>the pushback that that I got and we got in

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<v Speaker 1>the forty eight hours after we launched the risk report

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<v Speaker 1>was how can coronavirus not be number one? And my

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<v Speaker 1>response was pretty simple. I said, we've got vaccines for coronavirus,

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<v Speaker 1>thank god. We don't have vaccines for polarization. In the

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<v Speaker 1>United States, all we have is more political pornography. All

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<v Speaker 1>we have is people getting more divided. And uh, and

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<v Speaker 1>I am disappointed with you guys that you threw out

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<v Speaker 1>that political pornography thing and you didn't actually go any

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<v Speaker 1>farther with the metaphor. Right, Usually you guys are good

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<v Speaker 1>for that any meet me for content than you want. Hardcore,

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<v Speaker 1>hardcore pornography not the kind of thing you want your

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<v Speaker 1>kids learning about. So you know. And I also do

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<v Speaker 1>think it is relevant that since we're getting back to

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<v Speaker 1>the social media stuff that um that the the executives

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<v Speaker 1>of these companies who want to maximize the time that

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<v Speaker 1>we all spend on them, they don't let their kids

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<v Speaker 1>on these devices. Yeah, that's interesting in that could anything

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<v Speaker 1>be more telling than that they absolutely no, Yeah problem?

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<v Speaker 1>Oh gosh, your your third risk? Climate net zero meets

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<v Speaker 1>g zero what Yeah? So I mean, I'll tell you,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm actually more optimistic right now about um, the planet

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<v Speaker 1>being able to address climate change than I ever have been,

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<v Speaker 1>uh in my life. The election, which because of coronavirus,

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<v Speaker 1>no more Trump, he would have been re elect that

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<v Speaker 1>if it wasn't for the pandemic, and I do you

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<v Speaker 1>could Biden massive focus on climate as a consequence, Kerry

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<v Speaker 1>is the most important appointment he has. All of the

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<v Speaker 1>European stimulus is oriented towards sustainability on the back of coronavirus.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a really big deal. The Chinese don't want to

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<v Speaker 1>be left out. Jes Paying moving in that direction. The

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<v Speaker 1>new Japanese Prime minister, same thing. We really are taking

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<v Speaker 1>steps that make it more possible that we don't have

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<v Speaker 1>three or four degrees centigrade of warming. That's a very

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<v Speaker 1>big deal. But that's that's the net zero piece. It's

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<v Speaker 1>less carbon into the atmosphere. But the G zero piece

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<v Speaker 1>is we are living in a world that's incredibly political

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<v Speaker 1>divided and doesn't have global leaderships got a G seven

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<v Speaker 1>or G twenty two zero? And so what it means,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, for all of these years, you'd have people

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<v Speaker 1>saying that if we could just focus on climate, we'd

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<v Speaker 1>come together, right, we could all save the planet, will

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<v Speaker 1>save the whales, will plant the trees. That's not going

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<v Speaker 1>to happen. There's actually going to be a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>competition and confrontation or over climate, over who has the resources,

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<v Speaker 1>who gets the resources, who dominates the new technologies for energy?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, the United States has over the

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<v Speaker 1>last ten years worked hard to become energy independent in

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<v Speaker 1>oil and gas. Now that we're getting away from fossil

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<v Speaker 1>fuels and we're focusing on things like solar and wind

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<v Speaker 1>and the rare earth metals we need for electric vehicles

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<v Speaker 1>and their batteries. You know, who dominates all of that, China,

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<v Speaker 1>all of it, and they're putting a lot of money

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<v Speaker 1>in and this is actually going to drive much more

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<v Speaker 1>confrontation between the Americans and the Chinese. So you've got

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<v Speaker 1>NET zero, which is positive, You've got G zero, which

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<v Speaker 1>is negative, and they're coming together. You have US China

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<v Speaker 1>attentions as number four, and we can talk all day

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<v Speaker 1>about that. And I'm fascinated with that whole story. Jumping

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<v Speaker 1>around a little bit. I just wondered, you've got the

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<v Speaker 1>cyber tipping point um on here. I'm wondering, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we had that big attack recently. At what point does

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<v Speaker 1>a big cyber attack start getting treated like a military

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<v Speaker 1>at tech and responded, uh, you know, in the same way. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>not when it involves only espionage, which involves the Russians

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<v Speaker 1>inside all of our institutions and stealing information. And part

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<v Speaker 1>of the reason for that is because we do that

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<v Speaker 1>to them. So that's already going on. And how good

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<v Speaker 1>at it? How good at it are we are? We are?

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<v Speaker 1>Are we better than everybody else? Or at least as

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<v Speaker 1>good as China and in uh, in Russia and everybody else. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we never admit this stuff. But whenever you have the

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<v Speaker 1>conversations with the people that truly do understand it, um

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<v Speaker 1>inside the US government, they they certainly are not bashful

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<v Speaker 1>about American offensive capabilities. The problem is that we don't

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<v Speaker 1>have defensive capabilities, and that's being shown to be the

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<v Speaker 1>case on a daily basis. And we also don't have

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<v Speaker 1>much capability to deter um and so it's not like

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<v Speaker 1>you know, mutually assured destruction, where the American Soviets had

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<v Speaker 1>all the nukes, but we knew that if we used one,

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<v Speaker 1>it could blow up the world. I mean, here the Americans,

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<v Speaker 1>the Russians, the Chinese dominate cyber offensive capabilities, but we

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<v Speaker 1>can't prevent each other from using them against each other.

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<v Speaker 1>And when it would become a war is not the

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<v Speaker 1>kind of attacks that you've seen in the last week's announced,

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<v Speaker 1>but rather you remember the attack on Ukraine a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of years ago. That was the reverse engineer, the not

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<v Speaker 1>Touch attack. There was a reverse engineered n S, a

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<v Speaker 1>malware piece of malware, and that was an espionage that

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<v Speaker 1>was actually going in and breaking critical infrastructuring Ukraine, and

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<v Speaker 1>then it got out of Ukraine and cost billions of

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<v Speaker 1>dollars of damage for companies like FedEx Europe and Marisk

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<v Speaker 1>and others. Um If that would happened at scale, I

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<v Speaker 1>think that could lead to escalation where a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people could die. That's that, and that is certainly becoming

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<v Speaker 1>a greater danger over time because that Russian attack on

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine wasn't meant to get outside of Ukraine. It just did.

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<v Speaker 1>And so the lack of determined and also means there's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of danger when you're operating this stuff. Ian

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<v Speaker 1>Bremer is the president founder of your Asia Group. The

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<v Speaker 1>Global Risks List, for one is out. Even if I

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<v Speaker 1>were to go back to grad school number one, I'd

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<v Speaker 1>yell at the professors and call the Marxists and be

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<v Speaker 1>expelled immediately. But if somehow they tolerated me and kept

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<v Speaker 1>me there, I would love to study Central and South

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<v Speaker 1>America and and why it hasn't emerged as an economic

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<v Speaker 1>and political power. And I keep waiting for it. I

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<v Speaker 1>keep waiting for the US to really turn its attention

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<v Speaker 1>to our neighbors. UM. And I know that that Latin

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<v Speaker 1>America is on your list of risks. What's going on there? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's not like Latin America is not growing

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<v Speaker 1>and a robust middle class across Latin America, particularly Brazil,

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<v Speaker 1>the largest economy, truly has been a success story. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>But a lot of mismanagement and a lot of frustration

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<v Speaker 1>as their middle classes get bigger, that their their services

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<v Speaker 1>aren't very good, that the kind of social contract that

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people come to expect, whether it's you know,

0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:11.520
<v Speaker 1>good mass transit or effective policing or education that is

0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:15.400
<v Speaker 1>affordable and high quality, they don't have these things, and

0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:18.520
<v Speaker 1>coronavirus is making life a lot worse for them because

0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:20.680
<v Speaker 1>in the United States, we're going to roll out these

0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:24.360
<v Speaker 1>vaccines this year, and once we get ten percent of

0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:27.600
<v Speaker 1>the population vaccinated, our mortality rates going to go down

0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:30.400
<v Speaker 1>by that's going to happen by the end of first quarter.

0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:32.760
<v Speaker 1>That's a big deal. That doesn't happen in Latin America

0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:35.760
<v Speaker 1>until later in the year and in some cases next year,

0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 1>so they're going to have big impact on that. Still,

0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:43.400
<v Speaker 1>like major new waves of coronavirus, a lot of people dying,

0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:46.000
<v Speaker 1>but they can't shut down the economies because they don't

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:49.440
<v Speaker 1>have the fiscal flexibility to pay for lockdowns the way

0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:51.960
<v Speaker 1>we do in the United States or in Europe and Japan.

0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:55.560
<v Speaker 1>And so you know what happens when that occurs is

0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:58.199
<v Speaker 1>that the existing governments, whoever they are, left wing or

0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:01.320
<v Speaker 1>right wing, are blamed and so you get this whip

0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:06.120
<v Speaker 1>saw in anger on the streets spilling out that's happened

0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:09.080
<v Speaker 1>in the last year in Chilean and Peru could be

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:11.319
<v Speaker 1>a lot broader across Latin America. And I was very

0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:14.600
<v Speaker 1>concerned that in Brazil. Just two days ago, the Brazilian

0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:17.720
<v Speaker 1>President Bolsonaro was pointing to what happened in the United

0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:21.000
<v Speaker 1>States in our capital and said, this could happen in Brazil.

0:14:21.080 --> 0:14:24.600
<v Speaker 1>And here's a guy that is absolutely prepared to weaponize

0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:28.920
<v Speaker 1>using social media disinformation and claim that he has won

0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:32.440
<v Speaker 1>the election if he doesn't. And you could easily see

0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:34.120
<v Speaker 1>what played out in the United States play out in

0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:37.880
<v Speaker 1>Brazil with a lot more violence, biggest economy in South America.

0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:41.680
<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Ian Bremer of Eurasia Group the Top Risks.

0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:45.360
<v Speaker 1>It's always fun. Let's talk against soon and we'll try

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.760
<v Speaker 1>to be more outrageous and entertain you better. I appreciate

0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:53.520
<v Speaker 1>that gent call whatever. All right, thanks, I feel like

0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:56.320
<v Speaker 1>board the great Man. I got some comments on serious times,

0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:58.040
<v Speaker 1>damn it. I got some comments on some of that stup.

0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:00.320
<v Speaker 1>But we gotta take a break. Text Lin and five

0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:03.960
<v Speaker 1>k F T. C. Barnstrong and Jetty