Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
Speaker 1: I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined by my Faves and your faves,
Speaker 1: Kendra and Stucky. Week seven in the NFL is upon us,
Speaker 1: and we've got plays for this week. On today's show,
Speaker 1: we will submit those official plays. Two Kings and a
Speaker 1: Queen Parlay. I gotta come through for the group. I
Speaker 1: left us hanging last week. Some public darlings that you
Speaker 1: need to be aware of. Like and subscribe wherever it
Speaker 1: is that you are tuned in, hopefully everybody on this podcast.
Speaker 1: Stucky got ample sleep this week. Great call by you.
Speaker 1: By the way, FIU cashed on a Tuesday night, so
Speaker 1: got us off to a good start this week. Thank you.
Speaker 1: Tip of the cap to you, my friend.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's always nice when it can get get an
Speaker 2: easy one like a ten point dog that one by
Speaker 2: But uh yeah that was in the past and now
Speaker 2: no sleep here. We're hopefully into a weekend full of winters,
Speaker 2: so let's let's get to it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we got a lot to get to but before
Speaker 1: we do, it's a Thursday tradition, Stucky for you to
Speaker 1: ask us your random question of the week. I feel
Speaker 1: mentally sharp and ready, so give it to us.
Speaker 3: Hey, this is a dumb question.
Speaker 2: Let me ask you a personal question kind of question?
Speaker 1: Is that is question?
Speaker 4: All right?
Speaker 2: What was your most No, you can't answer any no
Speaker 2: feat related answers.
Speaker 1: What was he's talking to you?
Speaker 2: What was your most random or end or funniest job
Speaker 2: that you've ever had?
Speaker 4: Okay, first of all, I'd like it to be known
Speaker 4: that stuck you brought up the feet the first time,
Speaker 4: not me, but most randomed.
Speaker 5: I was Robert Salis nanny for a while. Does that count?
Speaker 5: Is that random?
Speaker 6: You?
Speaker 5: Robert Salas nanny?
Speaker 1: You were?
Speaker 2: Yeah, that counts, yes, answer.
Speaker 5: But I was like the coolest lady I've ever met.
Speaker 5: I'm obsessed with her.
Speaker 4: She literally just used to have become nanny so they
Speaker 4: could go on dates and she could go get her
Speaker 4: eyelashes done.
Speaker 2: That's where did he live.
Speaker 5: When he was in Jacksonville?
Speaker 2: Do you have any any uh no, dirt on him?
Speaker 2: Was he messing?
Speaker 4: Now?
Speaker 5: No, he's bess.
Speaker 4: I genuinely when that whole beef happened with him and
Speaker 4: Liam Cohen, I was shocked because, yeah, he's like a
Speaker 4: big tough guy, but like he's the.
Speaker 5: Nicest guy I've ever met.
Speaker 4: Would come in talk football with me, talk about the kids,
Speaker 4: like his wife was really cool. I was so shocked
Speaker 4: when that whole thing went down, because they're just like
Speaker 4: the coolest, most clean sheet normal family ever come to you. Family,
Speaker 4: so many kids, so many kids. I think they've been
Speaker 4: together since like high school.
Speaker 2: How did you get that gig?
Speaker 5: Literally?
Speaker 4: I was on one of the like babysitting websites, and
Speaker 4: I had just ended my prior nannying job and was
Speaker 4: looking for another name job.
Speaker 5: I didn't want to work in retail again.
Speaker 4: Or whatever, And she hit me up and I start
Speaker 4: watching their kids and one day Robert just walks in
Speaker 4: and I'm like, wait a second, what.
Speaker 5: I didn't even know that he.
Speaker 4: Was like their dad or anything because he was gone
Speaker 4: so much. And one day he like did a swapover
Speaker 4: for the kids for me, and he walked in and
Speaker 4: I was like, I know you that's amazing.
Speaker 2: Wow.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the can't beat that one stuck.
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, I don't. I don't know how I'm
Speaker 2: gonna beat that.
Speaker 1: What was the exact phrasing of the question, is.
Speaker 2: The most random, your funniest job you've had?
Speaker 1: Pretty random? My first job while I was in high school,
Speaker 1: I got a job at a dollar store in Coral Springs,
Speaker 1: Florida called just a Buck, and I worked my way
Speaker 1: up to be the assistant night manager of the dollar store.
Speaker 1: What a clusterfuck that is. If God bless anybody out
Speaker 1: there listening that works in a dollar store, it is
Speaker 1: a total disaster between the inventory and the because there's
Speaker 1: a trillion items and the dirt that walks into those stores.
Speaker 1: It's awful. And I was sixteen, so that was that
Speaker 1: was pretty random. I also worked at the I was
Speaker 1: a bartender for a while. I worked at the ice
Speaker 1: bar in Orlando, so I used to actually work in
Speaker 1: the actual ice portion, so it was like thirty degree weather.
Speaker 3: That was a tough one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, manager at a dollar store, that is That is
Speaker 2: very random. I'll say I have two answers. In high school,
Speaker 2: I got a lot of trouble a lot, so my
Speaker 2: dad made me work for his friend who in this
Speaker 2: summer to pay off some legal bills for he was
Speaker 2: in concrete foundation. So like pouring concrete, taking down the slat.
Speaker 2: That was miserable. That's when I found out I did
Speaker 2: not want to be in manual labor. I mean I
Speaker 2: always knew that, but that that confirmed it. That was tough,
Speaker 2: but the most random, That was the hardest, most random.
Speaker 2: I worked in the winter my friends when I was
Speaker 2: in high school. My friend's family owned a cut your
Speaker 2: own Christmas tree farm and people would come and cut
Speaker 2: their own Christmas trees this huge farm in the summer.
Speaker 2: A couple of days we would go out and plant
Speaker 2: them all and then people will come. But not everyone
Speaker 2: could cut them on their own, so sometimes you'd have
Speaker 2: to go out with them, walk out, cut them, and
Speaker 2: then come back bail them, load them up onto their car.
Speaker 2: That was probably the most Yeah, that was probably the
Speaker 2: most random job that I've ever had, a working at
Speaker 2: a cut your own Christmas tree farm in the winter.
Speaker 1: The concrete slab one though that the person who runs
Speaker 1: that that business is definitely in the mob, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: we would have we would.
Speaker 2: Have like runnings with like unions in Philly, Like when
Speaker 2: we were on a job where they didn't hire the unions,
Speaker 2: like the unions would be upset. And I mean I
Speaker 2: was just a sixteen year old kid, but uh, it
Speaker 2: was definitely an Italian and I'll say I'll say that,
Speaker 2: but yeah, that was miserable work. I mean that was
Speaker 2: hard work. You had to go. You got to you
Speaker 2: poured the concrete, and then then you would first you
Speaker 2: would put up the the big panels and they would
Speaker 2: be covered in concrete. You'd have to carry them around.
Speaker 2: The next day you would go. You'd have to take
Speaker 2: them down, carry them, put them, stack them up, get
Speaker 2: the crane would come, you'd have to put them. Oh
Speaker 2: my god, it was absolutely miserable work. I don't know
Speaker 2: how people's like backs. People guys have been doing it
Speaker 2: for like twenty years. I don't know how they saw
Speaker 2: backs left. I was a sixteen year old kid dying
Speaker 2: every day.
Speaker 1: So should have just been selling your feet picks. Then
Speaker 1: you wouldn't have had to do any of that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, if only I know it's never me, it's never
Speaker 4: me bringing it up.
Speaker 5: I would just like that on the record.
Speaker 1: I didn't say anything about Kendra.
Speaker 2: That was just all right. Ken was the winner of
Speaker 2: that this week's question because Robert sawah Nanny that ties
Speaker 2: into the NFL beat, So you're the winner.
Speaker 1: You can't beat that, Evan, do you do you want
Speaker 1: to try and top that or you want to sit
Speaker 1: this one out?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 6: I mean construction would have been my answer. I mean,
Speaker 6: I've been working in sports information and gambling for way
Speaker 6: too long to have something as.
Speaker 7: Interesting as being the nanny of Robert Sala.
Speaker 6: I can't beat that one iota.
Speaker 1: Think about all the nuggets that you could give him
Speaker 1: going into a weekend if you were, though, that would
Speaker 1: be uh yeah, it'd.
Speaker 6: Be way too negative though he If Robert Zala would
Speaker 6: have known me personally, he would have hated me because
Speaker 6: his record and stuff was not pristine, so we would
Speaker 6: not have been on the same pitch.
Speaker 1: Unfortunately, that's a great way to start our Thursday episode
Speaker 1: is loaded. We'll get the football conversation going with our
Speaker 1: shrimply unbelievable stat of the week courtesy of Action Network
Speaker 1: Director of Research Evan Abrams. That man, you heard right.
Speaker 1: There got two that I love that are pertinent to
Speaker 1: this week. Mahomes two straight up losses as a touchdown
Speaker 1: or more favorite since twenty twenty. Both of those losses
Speaker 1: are against the Las Vegas Raiders. That's who they play
Speaker 1: this weekend. Chiefs eleven and a half point favorites. Also,
Speaker 1: not the quarterback that you want to back when he's
Speaker 1: favored by a touchdown or more when he's favored by
Speaker 1: seven and a half or more. Thirteen twenty four and
Speaker 1: one against the spread. So that's one of my favorites.
Speaker 1: The Titans, we think are supposed to get the fired
Speaker 1: coach bounce here, as Evan mentioned on the Tuesday episode,
Speaker 1: not as profitable as it feels. Callahan twenty third coach
Speaker 1: to be fired or resigned in season. The prior twenty
Speaker 1: two went ten and twelve straight up in the following
Speaker 1: game a clean eleven and eleven against the spread. Kendra,
Speaker 1: does any of that give you pause? Because your plant
Speaker 1: the flag game was on the Tennessee Titans, and I
Speaker 1: gave you a good amount of grief for that just
Speaker 1: the other day.
Speaker 4: No, I feel actually so good about this, which is
Speaker 4: probably terrifying, and I shouldn't feel this.
Speaker 5: Good about it.
Speaker 4: But everyone up here in Boston has been licking Mike
Speaker 4: rabels boots all week long, saying Drake May is the best,
Speaker 4: and I just cannot I cannot wait for this team
Speaker 4: to find a little bit of a level again. They
Speaker 4: beat the Bills, beat a bad team. I just there's
Speaker 4: no way that they can continue to be the healthiest
Speaker 4: team in the league for the rest of the season.
Speaker 5: I hope that they do.
Speaker 4: I never wish injury upon anybody, but they have statistically
Speaker 4: been the.
Speaker 5: Healthiest healthiest team in the league this year.
Speaker 4: I think that the only saving grace that they have
Speaker 4: right now is Drake May.
Speaker 5: Everything else is in shambles. I get that.
Speaker 4: You know, the Titans are not the best team by
Speaker 4: any stretch. They're probably the worst team in the league.
Speaker 4: I think we could all mute we all agree with that,
Speaker 4: but they've got to find their level a little bit.
Speaker 4: Third straight road game. I feel great. I feel so good.
Speaker 1: I think my issue with the Titans play on the
Speaker 1: Tuesday episode is it's not so much that it's a
Speaker 1: bad bet. I do think that if you're going to
Speaker 1: bet the side, the Titans are the right side. So
Speaker 1: I'll give you. I'll give you some credit on that.
Speaker 1: My issue is that you ran to the window for it.
Speaker 1: Why are we running to the window for the Tennessee Titans.
Speaker 4: Because I'm glad that I did. The seven and a
Speaker 4: half was no longer there I had. I had to
Speaker 4: track a seven in the app today, so we didn't
Speaker 4: get that extra half a point.
Speaker 5: That's why I ran to that window.
Speaker 1: All right. I respect it stucky. Anything on that you
Speaker 1: want to add as far as those wild stats go
Speaker 1: from the primer this week, Yeah, I mean I.
Speaker 2: Do think that there is a coach bounce. I mean,
Speaker 2: like there's number one, the coach be fired is usually bad.
Speaker 2: That like the ten and twelve straight up is that
Speaker 2: you have to look, that's better than expectation. Most of
Speaker 2: the times, these are bad teams that are underdogs. So
Speaker 2: I mean, for example, if they win this game, that
Speaker 2: would be a bit of a major upset. Eleven and
Speaker 2: eleven against the spread. Yeah, you're you're around five, and
Speaker 2: that's against the clothes. A lot of times these teams
Speaker 2: do get back, but I think it depends on the
Speaker 2: exact scenario. I think Callahan was so bad that it
Speaker 2: can only be better. I think that everyone in that
Speaker 2: locker room knew that he was going to get fired. Eventually,
Speaker 2: there's you know, maybe just like a sigh of relief
Speaker 2: for lack of a better word, there's some new things
Speaker 2: that they might implement. So I think it could only
Speaker 2: work in their favor. Do I think it's just some
Speaker 2: massive edge, No, but things you're talking about the worst
Speaker 2: coach in NFL history against the spread from a percentage standpoint,
Speaker 2: and that is like the ultimate measure of who a
Speaker 2: coach is because I mean, this is a pretty efficient
Speaker 2: market in the NFL, and for someone to go four
Speaker 2: and twenty against the spread, you know, we know who
Speaker 2: the players are, we know who the teams are, Like,
Speaker 2: that's an indictment on the coach himself. So yeah, there
Speaker 2: are more upsets than you would expect than the next
Speaker 2: game following the coach getting fired because that ten and
Speaker 2: twelve straight up. Usually, like I said, coach a teen
Speaker 2: that fires their coach, usually a really bad team. They
Speaker 2: have a really bad record, they don't have a great
Speaker 2: team regardless. So yeah, I don't think it's some massive edge.
Speaker 2: But in this case, it's no more callahan. I mean
Speaker 2: some of the things he would do with at the
Speaker 2: end of game, at the end of halfs, at the
Speaker 2: end of games, clock management, time out management when kicking
Speaker 2: field goals, like not knowing the rules at certain times
Speaker 2: for challenges, all of those things stay add up and
Speaker 2: it can't be any worse than it was. So I
Speaker 2: think in this case that there is some more potential
Speaker 2: upside than maybe in some other cases.
Speaker 1: You've been doing this a while, stucky, so maybe you
Speaker 1: have some recollection of betting on or against the coach
Speaker 1: that's stepping in for him, a guy whose name we
Speaker 1: have not mentioned in all of this, because when a
Speaker 1: coach gets fired there's an interim. It's Mike McCoy. He
Speaker 1: was the head coach of the LA Chargers, the San
Speaker 1: Diego Chargers for four seasons. He went nine and twenty
Speaker 1: three straight up in his last two years before he
Speaker 1: was let go. Do you have any recollection of betting
Speaker 1: Mike McCoy games.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'm not the biggest Mike McCoy fan,
Speaker 2: but like, this is mostly to do with This is
Speaker 2: mostly to do just with Like, all you have to
Speaker 2: do is be a normal human being and like know
Speaker 2: the rules and you'll be better than Callahan. So I
Speaker 2: don't think McCoy is some you know, I'm going to
Speaker 2: be some amazing head coach. I do remember betting on
Speaker 2: him or against him. Was never wowed by him, But
Speaker 2: it's just it's it's gonna be difficult to be worse
Speaker 2: than Callahan.
Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where
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Speaker 1: The Crown is yours a segment that I believe is
Speaker 1: a really big dill Hendra. What game has you gonna pickle?
Speaker 7: Okay, we're in a pickle now, I'm really in a
Speaker 7: pickle now.
Speaker 1: All right, look we're gonna pickle again.
Speaker 5: We're gonna go with the or off obviously.
Speaker 4: You guys know that I've been loving the Colds this season.
Speaker 4: Just everything about them has been so entertaining to me.
Speaker 4: And you know that I'm addicted to gambling on the Chargers.
Speaker 4: I did not put the Chargers in our parlay this
Speaker 4: week as a nominee, so I.
Speaker 1: I'm a conky touchdown last week, So hopefully you had it.
Speaker 1: We wouldn't let you bet it.
Speaker 4: No, No, I was in bet jail with lad Conky.
Speaker 5: So this number opened at six, it is currently at
Speaker 5: one and a half.
Speaker 4: I think the Chargers are just straight up a bad team,
Speaker 4: and I think the col Through a good team, And
Speaker 4: the fact that the Colts are getting points makes me
Speaker 4: feel like something has to be off here. I mean,
Speaker 4: the Chargers went into an absolute battle with the Dolphins
Speaker 4: last week, Like what is that? I don't know how
Speaker 4: to feel about either of these teams because I keep
Speaker 4: feeling like maybe the Colts will come back to the
Speaker 4: Colts that we know, but I just think they might
Speaker 4: be a good team. I don't know this is I
Speaker 4: am in a pickle about this because everything in me
Speaker 4: says that I should take take the money and run.
Speaker 5: With the Colts.
Speaker 4: The Chargers are bad. I need to get out of
Speaker 4: Chargers jail, but I can't. I'm addicted. Also, it is
Speaker 4: the aura off justin Herbert's girlfriend Madison Beer walked in
Speaker 4: the Victoria's Secret fashion show last night, So I'm like,
Speaker 4: is that does that count for you know a point?
Speaker 5: I don't know.
Speaker 1: Do we do we have models on that? Can we
Speaker 1: add that to the list of the random things that
Speaker 1: we use to get to wagers? Like Moons and such.
Speaker 5: Hey, you hate on the Moon, but that one, okay, that.
Speaker 1: One did cash for us fair point. You have the
Speaker 1: Chargers as point and a half favorites in that game.
Speaker 1: Call the home field advantage what you will for that one.
Speaker 1: I think the Colts are a phenomenal teaser leg. If
Speaker 1: you want to bump that up to seven and a
Speaker 1: half chef's kiss, I feel like that's the way to
Speaker 1: go here. I understand why you are in a pickle.
Speaker 1: I will not be betting this game straight stock.
Speaker 2: I'm on the Chargers, one of my favorite bets the weekend,
Speaker 2: so I'm sad the friend of them want to go
Speaker 2: head to head. But the thing is is that, I mean,
Speaker 2: the Chargers should should be getting healthier this weekend. We'll
Speaker 2: get a better idea today, but the Colts are a
Speaker 2: as of right now. Let me see if there's an
Speaker 2: update this morning. But the Colts last week, I mean,
Speaker 2: there's a reason I almost lost to Kobe Brissett and
Speaker 2: a Cards offense that has done nothing all year and
Speaker 2: had all the receivers hurt either before during the game,
Speaker 2: and with no rush, no running back slacked. That's because
Speaker 2: Tarvari's ward had a concussion. They've been without kennymore they
Speaker 2: lost as I mean, you're talking about one of the
Speaker 2: worst secondaries in the league. Now in Versette threw all
Speaker 2: over them with backup receivers, so you know now and
Speaker 2: and Charia's Ward has been arguab with the best corner
Speaker 2: in the NFL this year. I doubt that he plays
Speaker 2: this weekend. It's not his first concussion. It was it
Speaker 2: looked like a bad one, and it happened right before
Speaker 2: the game. So this is exactly a week over, and
Speaker 2: this is exactly a week after. Kenny Moore hasn't practiced
Speaker 2: in weeks. I know that he practiced yesterday, but he's
Speaker 2: dealing with an achilles. You're, you know, sitting with a
Speaker 2: really good record. So I don't know if he plays.
Speaker 2: And if that's the case, I know that the Charter's
Speaker 2: offensive line has beat up. They could be healthier this weekend.
Speaker 2: It's that the Colts aren't an elite, elite pressure team,
Speaker 2: so I just think that, I mean, look at presetted.
Speaker 2: I think Herbert will be able to cook enough to
Speaker 2: get this done. Also, Daniel Jones, I went back and
Speaker 2: watched him. I was like, am I missing some of
Speaker 2: thetatoes has obviously been good. His weapons are much better
Speaker 2: than they were in New York. His offensive line is
Speaker 2: really good, his play caller is really good. But he's
Speaker 2: gotten away with a lot of throws. He's not really
Speaker 2: seeing safeties and that's not ideal against a mentor defense.
Speaker 2: I think that there could be some turnovers coming for
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones this week. I mean, his turnover worthy play
Speaker 2: rate is more than double Justin Herberts, who has one
Speaker 2: of the lowest in NFL history, one of the lowest
Speaker 2: interception rates of any quarterback in NFL history. So I
Speaker 2: think you might Chargers potential to look the Colts are
Speaker 2: going to run on them a bit, but it's the
Speaker 2: potential that they can get one or two more turnovers.
Speaker 2: And this is in the weeds, but the Chargers have
Speaker 2: the most accurate kicker in NFL history and in Cameron Dicker,
Speaker 2: and the Colts have the money badger who's like a
Speaker 2: eighty percent career. So there could be one or two
Speaker 2: more miskicks from the Colts. But the main thing here
Speaker 2: is the secondary injuries. I also think Daniel Jones is
Speaker 2: due for a couple interceptions that could swing this game.
Speaker 2: I like the Chargers played them on a cheap money line.
Speaker 2: I think they get it done at home. That the
Speaker 2: secondary injuries are major, and if you think about it,
Speaker 2: the Colts this year they have wins over let's see,
Speaker 2: like and look, I think the Colts are a good team.
Speaker 2: Do I think that they're elite? No? But they beat
Speaker 2: They beat Tua, They beat the bo Knicks thanks to
Speaker 2: a leaping penalty. They beat cam Ward and the Titans,
Speaker 2: Gino and the Raiders, and Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: I mean, what are we saying, like five of the
Speaker 2: seven worst quarterbacks in the NFL. So yeah, I like
Speaker 2: the Chargers, So.
Speaker 1: This won't help any sort of Colts love the We
Speaker 1: do this every week on Thursday because it has been profitable.
Speaker 1: Last year, not as much. The public side was winning
Speaker 1: a lot. This year it's bouncing back the other way.
Speaker 1: Teams with sixty percent or more of the tickets this
Speaker 1: season fifteen and thirty six against the spread through six games.
Speaker 1: That is the worst ATS mark for public betters in
Speaker 1: twenty three years of the database held by Action Network. What.
Speaker 1: I don't know if anybody skipped ahead here? Does anyone
Speaker 1: want to take a guess at the most public side
Speaker 1: this week in the NFL.
Speaker 5: Kendra oh I just read this. It's the Cults.
Speaker 1: It is eighty two percent of the bets are on
Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 2: Josh Down's also DNP with a concussion, so he's probably
Speaker 2: not going to go that's big too. He's been great.
Speaker 1: So did that unpickle you at all?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 5: I don't think it did. I wish that it did,
Speaker 5: but it didn't.
Speaker 1: The other teams that are out there that are heavy
Speaker 1: public sides to be aware of. The Giants as road
Speaker 1: dogs against the Denver Broncos, seventy seven percent of the
Speaker 1: bets the Falcons. I want to pause on that one
Speaker 1: for a second. Seventy six percent of the bets against
Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine Ers. The Falcons looked awesome
Speaker 1: against the Buffalo Bills. Primetime dogs that come through and
Speaker 1: win and look as incredible as the Falcons did against
Speaker 1: a really good team in the Buffalo Bills. I think
Speaker 1: the idea is you don't want to get sucked into that,
Speaker 1: and that's the kind of team that you maybe want
Speaker 1: to lean off of in the following week. But the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers have some real issues. They were barely
Speaker 1: getting by with Nick Bosa out. Now Fred Warner is missing,
Speaker 1: the middle of that defense is just ravaged. Atlanta, I think,
Speaker 1: is a better team, and the fact that you're getting
Speaker 1: two and a half with them, I feel like we
Speaker 1: should betting the Falcons. But what am I missing here? Stuckey?
Speaker 1: Have you taken a side on forty nine ers Falcons?
Speaker 1: Because it feels like we haven't come fully around market wise,
Speaker 1: power rating wise to to how good this Falcons team
Speaker 1: might actually be.
Speaker 2: No, I need more clarity on the injury report, but
Speaker 2: under three, I mean, like I think that like one
Speaker 2: is probably right, it's not. It's a tough spot for
Speaker 2: Atlanta going cross country to play in San Francisco after
Speaker 2: a huge win on Monday night. Left tackle that's the
Speaker 2: big news. I know that San Francisco's defense is and
Speaker 2: their pressure rate is basically diminished to nothing without Bosa.
Speaker 2: The trickle down effect there is huge. And then you
Speaker 2: don't have Fred Warner. It was the Stars and Scrubs
Speaker 2: team regardless because they had to pay party and they
Speaker 2: were just the defense was uber relyant on Warner and Bosa.
Speaker 2: Now you don't have either. The offense is dealing with
Speaker 2: a ton of injuries, so we'll see who ends up
Speaker 2: playing on that side of the ball. The one to
Speaker 2: watch for the Falcons is their left tackle, Jake Matthews,
Speaker 2: who has the longest active streak of any longest active
Speaker 2: star streak of any player in the NFL. Right now.
Speaker 2: They're already missing their right tackle and their offensive line
Speaker 2: has been good, but they're kind they kind of scheme
Speaker 2: to that if they're missing their left tackle too. In
Speaker 2: his back up, Mike Durrell's horrendous and was really really
Speaker 2: bad in the second half against the Bills, which is
Speaker 2: why the Falcons one of the reasons the Falcons offense
Speaker 2: just didn't look the same in that second half. So
Speaker 2: that's something to keep an eye on. He was listed
Speaker 2: his day to day, but there's a lot of injuries
Speaker 2: in that game. It's not a great spot for the Falcons.
Speaker 2: I do love the Falcons, but ultimately a game I
Speaker 2: might stay. I think it's a good teaser piece, So
Speaker 2: if you're looking for another teaser piece, I would look
Speaker 2: at the Falcons that get them up over eight, crossing
Speaker 2: the three and seven.
Speaker 1: And I feel like for those out there, I look
Speaker 1: at these numbers, these percentages when they when they are
Speaker 1: this outrageous with this many of the bets tilted towards
Speaker 1: one side. It should give you pause. It should give
Speaker 1: you pause in general, and it should definitely give you
Speaker 1: pause this year with the numbers that we're seeing. At
Speaker 1: some point Stucky has mentioned this, it swings back in
Speaker 1: the other direction. But there's a reason why it's hard
Speaker 1: to beat the NFL, because most people just believe what
Speaker 1: they see and they roll with it. You know, I've
Speaker 1: been caught up in that trap as well. I think
Speaker 1: if you love these these heavy public sides and their dogs,
Speaker 1: put two together, teaser that up and we've seen a
Speaker 1: lot of close games lately. Colts Cowboys are a nice
Speaker 1: combo for me. Colts Falcons would be another. Before we
Speaker 1: move off of this completely, Evan, you wrote about this
Speaker 1: in the primer this week, teams off of an outright
Speaker 1: win as a dog in primetime, like the Falcons against
Speaker 1: the Bills, who play in primetime again the following week.
Speaker 1: This is the Sunday night football game fifty nine percent
Speaker 1: against the spread. I was shocked when I read that.
Speaker 1: Were you surprised as you discovered that that bit of
Speaker 1: data that those teams actually perform well the following week.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I just think it's normal narrative to
Speaker 6: assume the opposite, which is kind of what I tend
Speaker 6: to look for when doing these things. Like I think
Speaker 6: it was a last week with the Bengals and the Packers.
Speaker 6: It's like team loses three straight, other team favored by
Speaker 6: this many points. Normal person looks at the slate, looks
Speaker 6: at the games as oh, Packers have to cover.
Speaker 7: Well, it's like forty two percent last twenty years.
Speaker 6: Like things like that I think are the fun aspects
Speaker 6: of what we do week to week. And same situation here,
Speaker 6: Like most people look at something and make an assumption
Speaker 6: and sometimes it's right, but in this one it was
Speaker 6: kind of fun. I mean, small sample, it was like,
Speaker 6: what forty five games, and we're talking about like eight
Speaker 6: or nine games either way, especially when you have some
Speaker 6: pushes on the cover side.
Speaker 7: I mean, I think.
Speaker 6: Margin probably tells more of a story there, which I
Speaker 6: don't have in the copy, but I can look it up, so.
Speaker 7: That would be my initial thought. But yeah, interesting.
Speaker 1: Nonetheless, Dolphins, Patriots, Cowboys, Seahawks, Saints, Panthers, Eagles also on
Speaker 1: that list above sixty percent. That's the threshold that I'm
Speaker 1: looking for. For this head to actionnetwork dot com. You
Speaker 1: can look at all of this stuff on your own
Speaker 1: as well. By the way, the Luck Rankings point us
Speaker 1: in a couple of directions this week, shout out to
Speaker 1: Nick Giffin. If you're not checking out the luck rankings
Speaker 1: on the website, you're doing yourself a major disservice. Saints
Speaker 1: plus five and a half and what could be a
Speaker 1: weather game. I think there's supposed to be some heavy
Speaker 1: rain in Chicago. Lions minus five against the Bucks. That's
Speaker 1: one that I am very interested in. I might try
Speaker 1: and even tee that up to you guys when we
Speaker 1: do our parlay. Jets plus one and a half against
Speaker 1: Carolina Kendra, this is one that I cannot get behind.
Speaker 1: There's no way I could back the New York Jets
Speaker 1: flew back from London, didn't take the buy. Garrett Wilson
Speaker 1: is out. The luck rankings are saying that on the side,
Speaker 1: but no. I got in on the Panthers early. I'll
Speaker 1: just sit with a light. I have a Panthers plus one.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna let that ride see how it goes.
Speaker 4: But I'm also on the Panthers this week it's an
Speaker 4: option for our two Kings and a Queen because we
Speaker 4: are a lot of us were opposite for a lot
Speaker 4: of things this week, so I had to find things
Speaker 4: that we wouldn't fight about.
Speaker 1: Well, this might be a good week for us as
Speaker 1: far as going head to head, and I could use
Speaker 1: a couple of wins in that regard. So let's get
Speaker 1: to it. It's time for the reason you all came
Speaker 1: here today, Two Kings and a Queen parlay. I let
Speaker 1: us down last week. We hit two of our three.
Speaker 1: Time to get back on the horse, find some winners,
Speaker 1: four reminders. We each nominate two plays. We see if
Speaker 1: we can find some general consensus on the board, will
Speaker 1: battle if we have to, and eventually land on our
Speaker 1: two Kings and a Queen parlay, which we'll have in
Speaker 1: the app after the episode. Kendra, we'll start with you Chargers.
Speaker 4: My line, No I been Gifford put that in a year,
Speaker 4: which is so funny because low key usually that's the play. However,
Speaker 4: I like the Panthers were one of my nominations. I
Speaker 4: also have the Over and the Seahawks Texans game at
Speaker 4: forty one or if you guys want to stick with
Speaker 4: my Titans play.
Speaker 5: I'm okay with that as well.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I like that. That's a really
Speaker 1: low number. These are two of the slower paced teams.
Speaker 1: They are bottom ten, bottom seven in fact, in terms
Speaker 1: of positions or plays per game rather, so I don't
Speaker 1: know if I love that. And the Texans and Seahawks
Speaker 1: have really good defenses. I would like the Panthers. Was
Speaker 1: that an option?
Speaker 5: Yes, Panthers are an option. We can do.
Speaker 1: What would be the Panthers?
Speaker 5: Do we want to do?
Speaker 4: Panthers money line? I don't know what the price is.
Speaker 4: I'd have to look really quick, but.
Speaker 1: I think I think Panthers.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna I'm I might have avn't come in and
Speaker 2: the I'm videoing Panthers. I mean the Panthers now they're
Speaker 2: they're favored. I mean, in order to show value on them,
Speaker 2: I need to make the Panthers like three points I
Speaker 2: have four points better than the Jets on a neutral
Speaker 2: field like this is a non divisional, non conference road game,
Speaker 2: like I get no Garrett Wilson, which hurts, but this
Speaker 2: is also like look at luck rankings game by Like
Speaker 2: my overarching principle in the NFL is by low sell
Speaker 2: high like Panthers are, and the Panthers are just not
Speaker 2: the same team on the road. They've been dreadful on
Speaker 2: the road. Bryce Young's numbers fall off a cliff on
Speaker 2: the road, but they've won a couple of games in
Speaker 2: a row. The Jets are over. Historically, betting these over
Speaker 2: teams has been profitable, very profitable when no one wants
Speaker 2: to back them. I mean, look at last week. No
Speaker 2: one wanted to bet the Jets against the Broncos, and
Speaker 2: they arguably should have won even with negative ten passing yards.
Speaker 2: So I can't get there. I can't. I can't do
Speaker 2: the Panthers.
Speaker 4: I will.
Speaker 2: It's either the Panthers or I mean, I would vote
Speaker 2: for I don't. There's too much I don't know about
Speaker 2: the Seahawks, secondary injuries, for.
Speaker 4: People stucky in a blunder with this every single weeks.
Speaker 1: I think I don't. I don't like the Titans bet,
Speaker 1: but I will say we've talked more about that game
Speaker 1: than any other this week. I feel like it would
Speaker 1: be on brand for us to see this play out
Speaker 1: on the parlay itself.
Speaker 5: So I think I want to choose.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Evant has to choose. Panthers are Titans.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's Titans. There's no question. I want nothing to do.
Speaker 6: I don't want to watch the Jets game like I
Speaker 6: just it's Titans.
Speaker 7: We gotta go with. I mean, the seven and a
Speaker 7: half you got early.
Speaker 6: Week could be important in a game where Tennessee may
Speaker 6: score negative points.
Speaker 7: But we will see what happens, all right, Man.
Speaker 5: Ham Ward coming out party this Sunday.
Speaker 1: Kendrill loves trolling her own market. That's one thing I do.
Speaker 5: I'm addicted. It's okay. I was born to troll, and
Speaker 5: that's what I do.
Speaker 1: Stucky, what do you got.
Speaker 2: H Well, one of the one of mine I saw
Speaker 2: it was one of yours was gonna be the Browns
Speaker 2: money line.
Speaker 1: Does that mean that we auto play that one in
Speaker 1: the parlay?
Speaker 2: Yeah? So that's that's gonna be years. I mean you
Speaker 2: said you like the Raiders too, but I mean the
Speaker 2: Raiders are mess. No brock Bowers, no Colton Miller. They're
Speaker 2: so poorly coached.
Speaker 1: Chie. I would like to also, I you know it's
Speaker 1: supposed to be too. I'm gonna break my own rules here,
Speaker 1: but I would also want to nominate the Lions so
Speaker 1: I could make a case for them.
Speaker 5: Also, I did three, you can do three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I might.
Speaker 2: Left in the secondaries and the Bucks have no I mean,
Speaker 2: I don't know how that game is going to play out.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I like the Browns money line. I'll bank
Speaker 2: my case for that now, just for I guess the content.
Speaker 2: But look, what do the Dolphins have like? They don't.
Speaker 2: They have nothing. They've one of the worst defenses in
Speaker 2: the NFL. Their run defense is one of the three worst.
Speaker 2: Their secondaries arguably the worst. They're blitzing at the top
Speaker 2: five R eight, and Gabriel Lease has been good against the
Speaker 2: blitz throughout his college Crewers. He was elite, one of
Speaker 2: the best quarterbacks in college football history against the blitz.
Speaker 2: But they're blitzing at the top five right They're getting
Speaker 2: pressure at the bottom five or eight. Their offense doesn't
Speaker 2: have Tyreek kill. They've one of the worst offensive lines
Speaker 2: in the NFL. They're not even hitting explosive past plays anymore,
Speaker 2: which is the one area where you have to beat
Speaker 2: the Browns defense.
Speaker 5: Still scoring points though, if the.
Speaker 2: Browns defense at home doesn't give up points to anybody,
Speaker 2: I mean, they just shut down the Packers. They let
Speaker 2: this defense at home.
Speaker 5: I think people oversold the Packers, though.
Speaker 2: There still have a great offense, so they shut down
Speaker 2: everyone who goes to Baltimore, having who goes to Cleveland.
Speaker 2: You talk about I mean Joe Burrow and that Bengals
Speaker 2: offense did absolutely nothing. The Packers offense did absolutely nothing.
Speaker 2: You go back to the last couple of years, even
Speaker 2: when the Browns defense was worse like last year they
Speaker 2: had down here at home, they were still dominant. And
Speaker 2: then there's gonna be weather in this game. So who
Speaker 2: do I want. I want the team that could run
Speaker 2: the ball, and the Browns have a top three rush D.
Speaker 2: Like I said before, the Dolphins have a bottom three
Speaker 2: rush D. To it, this ain't gonna be under fire
Speaker 2: within as soon as he snaps the ball and there's
Speaker 2: no Tyreek Hill, the Browns can play their deep here.
Speaker 2: I think they'll do enough on the ground and win
Speaker 2: an ugly one. That's why I like the Browns. But
Speaker 2: my two two choices that I'll offer up are the Chargers.
Speaker 2: Already made my case there, and then we'll do the
Speaker 2: Vikings money line. I already made my case earlier the
Speaker 2: week on plant the flag.
Speaker 5: On the Eagles, So it's got to be the Chargers.
Speaker 2: So yeah, my case for the Vikings. I mean, if
Speaker 2: you watch the Eagles, this offense is broken. Kevin Pittula
Speaker 2: cannot figure out how to go against the zone or
Speaker 2: a blitz. Well, you're going up against the most blitz
Speaker 2: heavy defensive coordinator and the most zone heavy defense in
Speaker 2: the league this year, and that's been a problem for
Speaker 2: Hurts throughout his career. Very good against the man, very
Speaker 2: good against the man, coverage poor against zone this year.
Speaker 2: Is the worst quarterback in the league against Cover two.
Speaker 2: Guess what, Vikings running more Cover two than any other
Speaker 2: team in the NFL. And on the other side of
Speaker 2: the ball, Quenon Mitchell's hurt, the Eagles don't have a
Speaker 2: corner j Jalen Carter's banged up. Their defense isn't getting pressure.
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a defense that's below average. Their
Speaker 2: nineteenth and success rate nineteenth and EPA pri play Vikings
Speaker 2: with an elite staff off of bye, one of the
Speaker 2: hardest places to play at in the NFL. I assume
Speaker 2: it's going to be Carson Wentz at quarterback. The Eagles
Speaker 2: don't have anyone to cover their receivers. They're not even
Speaker 2: defending the run well. Saquon Barkley can't even get going
Speaker 2: because the offensive line is hurt. I mean, this is
Speaker 2: a guy who's getting tackled behind the line of scrimmage
Speaker 2: on thirty six percent of his carries. Last year was
Speaker 2: twenty four this year it's the second most in the NFL.
Speaker 2: I could keep on going, but this Eagles offense is
Speaker 2: broken right now. So it's either Vikings will say plus
Speaker 2: plus one and a half at DraftKings or the Chargers
Speaker 2: money line. You say Chargers, Kendra, no shot there? What
Speaker 2: do you say, Brandon?
Speaker 1: I know we like to claim that we're a Jags podcast,
Speaker 1: but low key we're kind of a Chargers podcast because
Speaker 1: they're on the Parlay every week. I feel like I
Speaker 1: want to get them off just because I'm tired of
Speaker 1: seeing the Chargers on there. Even though I agree with
Speaker 1: your points, I love the Vikings place, So my vote
Speaker 1: would be on Minnesota on the Eagles.
Speaker 5: It can't be. So Evan's going to have to be
Speaker 5: the voice of god.
Speaker 2: Chargers money line or Vikings plus one and a half.
Speaker 6: Don't you think it says something that I'm needed in
Speaker 6: every one of these conversations.
Speaker 7: This podcast is absolutely incredible. But I will say Chargers
Speaker 7: is the bet. It's always the Chargers. Yeah right, I
Speaker 7: think the Chargers on the right side this week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we can't off of this team.
Speaker 7: Dude, listen.
Speaker 6: I can't do anything but fade Daniel Jones and the
Speaker 6: Colts until something happens to that team. And if I'm
Speaker 6: wrong and we go to the super Bowl with the Colts,
Speaker 6: that's going to be what it ends up having to happen.
Speaker 6: Can't do anything about it.
Speaker 5: This is the Chargers podcast.
Speaker 1: It's always Chargers money line too. I don't think we've
Speaker 1: taken a Chargers spread yet.
Speaker 6: Points with the Chargers, but you can assume hardball will
Speaker 6: get the win. That's how they work.
Speaker 2: Chargers went by one on a missed honey Honey Badger,
Speaker 2: not honey money badger. Extra point. So Titans plus seven,
Speaker 2: Brown's money line, Chargers money line pays right around five
Speaker 2: to one at DK.
Speaker 1: I dig it and Evan, I appreciate the podcast review.
Speaker 1: Go ahead and leave five stars while you're at it. Okay,
Speaker 1: thank yourself. Useful over there. Chargers money line, Brown's Brown's
Speaker 1: money Line, and Titans plus do we get seven or
Speaker 1: seven and a half?
Speaker 3: Stucky seven?
Speaker 4: All right, there's no seven and a half left. I
Speaker 4: saw a bunch of people commenting on our video the
Speaker 4: other day like where's the seven and a half, And
Speaker 4: it's like, okay, well you better listen on time if
Speaker 4: you want the better numbers. You ask why I got
Speaker 4: to the window so early.
Speaker 5: Don't get out at me, sister.
Speaker 1: We're live on YouTube. Go and check us out. Two
Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen Parlay presented by DraftKings. That'll do
Speaker 1: it for this week's episode special thanks to our producers
Speaker 1: Gifford Gold and David Payne. Evan Abrams busy leaving us
Speaker 1: a five star review. You can do the exact same
Speaker 1: thing wherever you download your favorite podcast, The Favorites. We'll
Speaker 1: return on Sunday night. We have a recap episode Guys
Speaker 1: seven right here on the Action Network YouTube page. Thanks
Speaker 1: for tuning in. We'll be back here next time on
Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast presented by DraftKings.
Speaker 3: Let's Catch these tickets.
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