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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud? Bright enough?

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Speaker 3: They're over running again, so smooth, so sweet, Lendred.

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Speaker 4: Sixteen, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 4: sixty percent efforts, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shut with that shop with mind bog, buddy, And

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Speaker 3: that's why.

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Speaker 4: You see more beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the

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Speaker 4: most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody kicks them up.

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Speaker 1: Shut up again.

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Speaker 5: The wall, it's left to up.

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Speaker 1: The wide eyed drill confused?

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Speaker 3: How old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 5: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wondergul, the Soccer Betty

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Speaker 5: Podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Liebach,

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Speaker 5: and joining me as always heard my friends and colleagues

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Speaker 5: BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabundo.

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Speaker 6: And today is a special episode.

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Speaker 5: We'll be talking about some World Cup qualifiers coming your

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Speaker 5: way this week, including USA and Mexico.

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Speaker 6: And that's where we're going to start. Estaudios Teca.

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Speaker 5: Mexico is minus one ten at home hosting the United

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Speaker 5: States there plus two eighty five. The draw here is

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Speaker 5: plus two to forty five. The CONCACAFF standings are as followed.

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Speaker 5: Canada's at the top at twenty five points. They're all

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Speaker 5: but the shared at spot in Qatar twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 5: the USA and second, but they're tied with Mexico just

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Speaker 5: ahead on gold differential at twenty one points.

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Speaker 6: Panama it's seventeen and fourth place.

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Speaker 5: That fourth place spot would be in a playoff, and

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Speaker 5: then Costa Rica's in fifth place and sixteen points.

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Speaker 6: All the other teams are eliminated.

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Speaker 5: So big week coming up for the United States where

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Speaker 5: they're playing Mexico, Panama, and Costa Rica, the three teams

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Speaker 5: directly behind them. You could say that they're in a

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Speaker 5: terrific spot, very very likely to advance. However, a loss

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Speaker 5: against Mexico and the pressure will mount, especially considering what

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Speaker 5: happened before Rush of twenty eighteen when they didn't qualify.

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Speaker 5: So I'll bring you two in now to talk about

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Speaker 5: this game, because we're on different sides. Anthony, let's start

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Speaker 5: with you. You're going to be wearing the black hat

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Speaker 5: here talking about Mexico. Why do you like them minus

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Speaker 5: one ten?

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Speaker 3: You know, I feel on American almost in this in

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Speaker 3: this spot here, it's like, you know, I think the

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Speaker 3: US has been relatively overvalued.

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Speaker 4: Throughout most of qualifying.

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Speaker 3: When you go back and look through some of the games,

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Speaker 3: I know BJ had Canada in the last match they

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Speaker 3: played up North, and generally speaking, this defense has relied

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Speaker 3: a lot on Matt Turner's shot stopping to cover up

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Speaker 3: for what's been generally overrated performances, or they've conceded more

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Speaker 3: than I think you'd expect them to concede given what

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Speaker 3: they've you know, who they've played against, and they're expected

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Speaker 3: goals against numbers have not been as impressive as their

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Speaker 3: actual goals against. And again, a lot of that is

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Speaker 3: Matt Turner, who is awesome but is not going to

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Speaker 3: play in the match, and I think that's a big

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Speaker 3: loss for the usmant in this game. And I think

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Speaker 3: when you can compound that with the other injuries that they.

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Speaker 4: Have, Serginio Jest is going to miss.

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Speaker 3: Weston McKenny, who I think is their best midfielder, is out,

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Speaker 3: and then we just learned that it looks like Brendan

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Speaker 3: Aronson is also going to miss, and I'd argue he's

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Speaker 3: been their best player in World Cup Qualifying all around,

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Speaker 3: except maybe Turner, best outfield player at least, and the

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Speaker 3: US they match up relatively well with Mexico because of

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Speaker 3: their talent personnel.

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Speaker 4: They are built to play on the counter.

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Speaker 3: They're built with guys who can run with the ball

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Speaker 3: at their feet, pool A sick Raina, generally Aronson good

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Speaker 3: on counter in direct counter attacking styles. And we saw

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Speaker 3: that kind of last summer in the CONCAF Nations League

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Speaker 3: in the final when yes, Mexico was the better side

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Speaker 3: for large portions of it game was in Denver, but

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Speaker 3: the US was dangerous on the counter. I think they

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Speaker 3: can do that again, but I think this Mexico team

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Speaker 3: at home has significant edges one games at altitude, which

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Speaker 3: I think it's in Mexico, which of course is priced

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Speaker 3: into the market, but not sure how much it is

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Speaker 3: priced in relatively when you consider that the US should,

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Speaker 3: if they were smart, be more focused on this Panama game,

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Speaker 3: and I think we might see some more rotation than

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Speaker 3: normal beyond just the guys who were injured from Berhalter

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Speaker 3: here playing a little bit of game theory, realizing if

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Speaker 3: the US just beats Panama, they're in So I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure what we're going.

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Speaker 4: To get here.

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Speaker 3: Mexico is still the number one team and expecting goals

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Speaker 3: for in cocacaff in this qualifying stretch. And I still

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Speaker 3: think that even if you go back to the win

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Speaker 3: the US had in the first game back in the fall,

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Speaker 3: a lot of those early chances Mexico had could have

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Speaker 3: gone a lot differently. And I was on US in

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Speaker 3: that game and I thought they were pretty undervalued. But

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Speaker 3: now I think Mexico's going to get their events here

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Speaker 3: and win this one at home.

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Speaker 5: This is going to set up in a classic betting

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Speaker 5: split right where sports books that we're betting at and

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Speaker 5: people listening to the show are betting at a US

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Speaker 5: based sports books, and they're going to be welcoming money

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Speaker 5: on the USM and T here, and so I don't

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Speaker 5: really think we'll see much of a drift on Mexico.

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Speaker 5: But I do think that quote unquote sharp money will

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Speaker 5: be on Mexico ed Steca, a place where historically they

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Speaker 5: are dominant. However, I don't think there's much of an

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Speaker 5: edge here. I'm going to be back in the USA,

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Speaker 5: as you know, just a fun entertainment style bet.

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Speaker 6: But bj you actually do see an edge on the

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Speaker 6: Yanks and are getting down on them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the price is pretty good here for

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Speaker 1: the United States so you know, obviously the United States

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Speaker 1: has won three straight matches over Mexico, but obviously they

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Speaker 1: were all played in the United States, and this is

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Speaker 1: the first time that the national team is heading to

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Speaker 1: Ostia Stadios Tecas since twenty seventeen World Cup qualifying. So

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Speaker 1: to say that this Mexican national team and their fans

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Speaker 1: are ready for revenge, I think would be an understatement

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Speaker 1: because this has become one of the most heated rivalries

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Speaker 1: in international soccer. You know, the United States metrics have

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Speaker 1: been really improving, especially defensively. Seven of the United States

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Speaker 1: last eight World Up qualifying matches they've held opponents under

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Speaker 1: one expected goal, including that two to oh win against

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Speaker 1: Mexico back in November, which was a pretty domin performance.

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Speaker 1: I know, Anthony said Mexico had some chances early on,

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Speaker 1: but United States outshot them eighteen to eight. Expected goals

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Speaker 1: was two point two to two point seven. And most

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Speaker 1: importantly what really worked is the United States pressing their

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Speaker 1: passes for defensive action was eight point five. With that

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Speaker 1: being said, like Anthony's you know, an they already mentioned Weston, Kenny,

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Speaker 1: Brandon Aronson, and it looks like dest Are also is

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Speaker 1: out for this match, which is a blow to.

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Speaker 2: The United States.

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Speaker 1: However, Giorana is back, which provides the US with another

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Speaker 1: outstanding attacking option to go along with bull Sich Ricardo Peppi,

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Speaker 1: Timothy Weea, and Moosa. They need to really attack the

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Speaker 1: weakness of this Mexican defense. Both their center backs play

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Speaker 1: in Liga MX outside of Nesser Rejhu, who plays for

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Speaker 1: Suta Vigo in La Liga and is having a really,

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Speaker 1: really poor season for them. The thing with the Mexican

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Speaker 1: defense is against US and Canada and the three matches

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Speaker 1: they faced them four point nine expected goals. In the

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Speaker 1: eight matches against everybody else in CONCACAF ex Ganel, five

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Speaker 1: point five expected goals allowed, so their defense really.

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Speaker 2: Has struggled against the top teams in conca CAF.

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Speaker 1: So I have Mexico projected at plus one forty six,

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Speaker 1: so getting US plus half a goal at mins one

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Speaker 1: ten I believe has a little bit of value.

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Speaker 3: So go go USA, and the markets moved a little

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Speaker 3: bit towards the Mexicans in the last couple of days.

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Speaker 3: I know it was plus one oh five plus one

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Speaker 3: ten when I looked at it on Friday, and I

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Speaker 3: think a lot of that is the injury news. I

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Speaker 3: think you're just seeing that McKenny got the better of

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Speaker 3: Edson Alvarez. That's the the IX midfielder who plays for

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Speaker 3: Mexico got the better of him in a lot of

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Speaker 3: those duels. And you mentioned the pressing, same with Aaronson.

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Speaker 3: Those two are excellent pressers, excellent and winning the ball

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Speaker 3: and then breaking in the midfield. And I just I

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Speaker 3: don't really trust the reserves. And I know Tyler Adams

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Speaker 3: should be there and he's pretty good, and Unis Mussa

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Speaker 3: is very good with ball retention and could be a

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Speaker 3: big part of this as well. But I just think

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Speaker 3: they lose a lot in defensive pressing ability when they

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Speaker 3: lose Aaronson and McKenny.

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Speaker 5: All right, So at ten pm kickoff on Thursday, USA

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Speaker 5: and Mexico. Before that match, though, there are a bunch

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Speaker 5: of UEFA games and these are gonna be hilarious in

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Speaker 5: a number of different ways.

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Speaker 6: We'll start with Portugal.

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Speaker 5: There minus two fifty at home, hosting Turkey seven to one.

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Speaker 5: On the money line, the draw here is plus three ninety.

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Speaker 5: This is a three forty five pm kickoff Eastern Time

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Speaker 5: on Thursday at Estadio Drago in Porto Portugal. I was

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Speaker 5: high on Turkey going into the Euros. I thought that

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Speaker 5: their defense would be able to keep them in games,

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Speaker 5: turn things into coin flips, and maybe they'd be able

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Speaker 5: to pull one over. And they had a couple of

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Speaker 5: good attacking options. Barack Yomaz and company. Like they were

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Speaker 5: a disaster at the Euros. I went three one goal

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Speaker 5: for a goals against and.

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Speaker 6: I don't want to go back them.

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Speaker 5: I think Portugal here minus one and a half plus

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Speaker 5: one ten has some value because the attacking options for

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Speaker 5: Portugal are are still there, They're still good, and I

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Speaker 5: think you're getting a little bit of a discount on

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Speaker 5: a team just because they are in this playoff right,

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Speaker 5: like they lost to Serbia. Now it's going to be

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Speaker 5: a showdown potentially between them and Italy, and you're gonna

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Speaker 5: be able to buy a low on them. And plus,

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Speaker 5: our man Jose Sa will be in goal for the

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Speaker 5: Portuguese it looks like in and he is. He's been

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Speaker 5: one of the best goalies in Europe the season. So

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Speaker 5: I think, look, I know, Anthony, you disagree with me,

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Speaker 5: You're going to the to the Turks here, but god,

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Speaker 5: I'm I'm taking a chance on Portugal here, and I'm

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Speaker 5: likely going to use them as a piece in a

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Speaker 5: parlay with with another team coming up.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I'm on Turkey. I'm back, baby.

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Speaker 3: You know we all famously had Turkey in that first

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Speaker 3: Euros game against Italy.

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Speaker 4: We had them.

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Speaker 3: I think we all had them plus one or I

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Speaker 3: think Mike, I know Michael had the money line. That

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Speaker 3: was an embarrassment. I thought I was gonna lose every

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Speaker 3: single bet in the Euros after that game. I was

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Speaker 3: questioning everything I've ever believed in sports betting after that game.

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Speaker 3: And I think Italy exposed some serious issues with Turkey,

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Speaker 3: which is that their midfield kind of stinks. I don't

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Speaker 3: know that Portugal is the team to really expose that.

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Speaker 3: I'm very skeptical of this Portugal midfield. I just don't

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Speaker 3: really know what their ball progression plan is and they

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Speaker 3: don't really have they haven't really shown one in their

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Speaker 3: in their time under friend under Santos, so I don't

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Speaker 3: know what we're going to get here. And there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of injuries for Portugal that I'm very concerned about.

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Speaker 3: Joaqueumcalo is out, he suspended, Ruben Diaz is out, Pepe

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Speaker 3: has COVID.

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Speaker 4: So who's who's playing center back?

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, forty nine year old Jos Funt

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Speaker 3: is going to be in the fold at center back,

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Speaker 3: and that's kind of concerning going through a lot of

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Speaker 3: makeshift pieces and defensively, and we don't know if Jose

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Speaker 3: Saal is going to start. I wouldn't be shocked if

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Speaker 3: Santos just says, who is our guy, He's our one.

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Speaker 3: We're sticking by him, even though he's clearly worse. So

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Speaker 3: the managerial decision, I don't trust the manager. I don't

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Speaker 3: think they have ever really established a clear plan on

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Speaker 3: how to progress the ball to the midfield.

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Speaker 4: And we see that in Bruno Fernandz.

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Speaker 3: I mean the story, one of the underlying stories of

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Speaker 3: the Euros was Bruno fernand said, this great year at

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Speaker 3: Man United, and then he went to the Euros and

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Speaker 3: was awful and couldn't barely get in the team, and

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Speaker 3: then he was getting subbed off.

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Speaker 4: I think a lot of that was because they just

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Speaker 4: didn't get him the ball enough. They couldn't get the pull.

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Speaker 3: It took them an hour to get the ball from

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Speaker 3: the defensive line to the forward line, and that doesn't

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Speaker 3: really make a lot of sense when you look at

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Speaker 3: the talent, but again the performances also aren't great.

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Speaker 4: You look across the board.

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Speaker 3: They are the twelfth best defense in World Cup qualifying

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Speaker 3: in Europe. That's pretty concerning when you consider there'd be

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Speaker 3: a defensive first team and they've didn't play in a

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Speaker 3: hard group. I mean, Serbia is not a World Cup power.

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Speaker 3: I mean they're not usually in the World Cup. They

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Speaker 3: had Ireland in their group. I mean it was a

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Speaker 3: very weak group and they still had a lot of struggles.

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Speaker 3: Even the Ireland wins came late. They needed some late

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Speaker 3: goals from Ronaldo to get by them. So I just

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Speaker 3: don't really love this Portugal team and their ability to

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Speaker 3: get margin. I took Turkey plus one and a half

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Speaker 3: minus one twenty, like get up to minus one thirty.

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Speaker 3: I think the Turks are going to hang around here

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Speaker 3: and make this a really competitive game, and I think

257
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Speaker 3: their midfield won't get exposed and kind of ripped up

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Speaker 3: like they did at the Euros. I think you kind

259
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Speaker 3: of have to hit the reset button a little bit

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Speaker 3: after that last summer at debacle in betting.

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Speaker 5: There's a couple best practices over the long term, Like

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Speaker 5: you're looking at predictive metrics and that should tell you.

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Speaker 5: Look this Portugal beat Turkey as many times as the

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Speaker 5: odds suggest they do.

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Speaker 6: The answer is probably not. But this is an outlier game, right,

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Speaker 6: this is a win. And you're in situation in the World.

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Speaker 5: Cup, in World Cup qualifying and it's Christiano Ronaldo, it

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Speaker 5: s it's Bruno Fernanz And it's almost like when people

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Speaker 5: talk about betting the Super Bowl, like you need to

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Speaker 5: kind of sometimes just step away from that, thinking as

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Speaker 5: like a long term better in certain instances. And I

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Speaker 5: think that this is these kind of matches are them,

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Speaker 5: they're outliers and I just trust Portugal and stars and

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Speaker 5: Ronaldo and his ability just to will teams like it's

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Speaker 5: it's a big Ronaldo is able to will teams to

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Speaker 5: win in split seconds. So I don't have an issue

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Speaker 5: backing Portugal and an expensive price here, Bja anything for

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Speaker 5: you Portugal, Turkey or you on the sidelines.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on the sidelines. If anything, I would probably

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Speaker 1: play Portugal. So the defense anything is going to be

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Speaker 1: Fante and Jallo who play together at LIL So not

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Speaker 1: really that big of a problem against a team like Turkey.

283
00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,439
Speaker 1: But we'll talk about it next week when they have

284
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Speaker 1: to play a team with Italy like Italy West and

285
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Speaker 1: pace going forward, that's probably gonna be a problem. I mean,

286
00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:43,040
Speaker 1: it's a little concerning with Portugal their last two results,

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Speaker 1: drawing with Ireland and losing to Serbia. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: just tough. Like this is why I'm passing is because

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Speaker 1: I don't really know. I mean, there was a match

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Speaker 1: where Turkey did try to switch to a four to

291
00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:57,560
Speaker 1: two three one to provide some more creativity going forward.

292
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Speaker 1: But if they're just going to play a four to one,

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00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:03,200
Speaker 1: four to one with Yomas on an island. He is

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00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:05,120
Speaker 1: not the type of striker that you can just put

295
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Speaker 1: on an island and say, hey, control the ball for

296
00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:09,760
Speaker 1: twenty seconds. Ball, we try to get up the pitch

297
00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,000
Speaker 1: and then we can provide something going to the box.

298
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Speaker 1: He's just not that guy at age thirty six. He

299
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Speaker 1: needs people to be supplying him the ball in the box,

300
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Speaker 1: you know, get winning the ball in the air, which

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00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:21,520
Speaker 1: could happen in this one with no Das and no

302
00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,920
Speaker 1: Pepe there to defend him in the air. But for Turkey,

303
00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:26,840
Speaker 1: you know, if you look at through their World Cup

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00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:31,000
Speaker 1: qualifying matches before the Euros they're actually pretty impressive. You know,

305
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Speaker 1: they beat the Netherlands at home. You know, they beat

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00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,080
Speaker 1: the Netherlands at home in Norway on the road, but

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00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,560
Speaker 1: then after the Euros they lost six to one to

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Speaker 1: the Netherlands and then they beat you know, Montenegro, Latvia

309
00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:45,960
Speaker 1: and Gibraltar twice. So that tells me that if they

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Speaker 1: have to play anybody who has any type of pace

311
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Speaker 1: or ability going forward, they're screwed, which is what we

312
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Speaker 1: saw at the Euros. So if I played anything, would

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Speaker 1: probably Portugal minus four and a half. But I have

314
00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:59,000
Speaker 1: Portugal at minus two twenty seven in the over under

315
00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,200
Speaker 1: at around two point, so not much value for me

316
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Speaker 1: on this one.

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Speaker 2: I'll probably look in smother Euro qualifiers.

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Speaker 5: The team that Portugal would have to play if they

319
00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,880
Speaker 5: win would be Italy, most likely their minds five twenty

320
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Speaker 5: five taking on North Macedonia thirteen to one on the

321
00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,440
Speaker 5: money line to draw here plus six fifty. This is

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Speaker 5: interesting because people are treating Italy like two different teams, right,

323
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Speaker 5: Like you had the Italy that was terrific during the

324
00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:27,360
Speaker 5: Euros and then also the Italy that is now here

325
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:29,840
Speaker 5: fighting for their lives in World Cup qualifying. That also

326
00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,240
Speaker 5: didn't qualify for the World Cup in Russia for the

327
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Speaker 5: first time. I think it's sixty years they missed out,

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Speaker 5: So this could be back to back World Cups that

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Speaker 5: Italy is on the sidelines for. That would be just unprecedented.

330
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Speaker 5: Similar to what I was talking about with Portugal that you.

331
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Speaker 5: I think I'm betting on the Italy of the Euros

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Speaker 5: to show up here because the stakes are could it

333
00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:53,440
Speaker 5: be higher? And I like the matchup obviously is terrific

334
00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,560
Speaker 5: for them against North Macedonia team that struggled to keep

335
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Speaker 5: the ball out of the back of the net in.

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Speaker 6: The euro And yeah, great story.

337
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,040
Speaker 5: We had a lot of fun talking about them over

338
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,040
Speaker 5: the summer. But I think Italy is able to win

339
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,560
Speaker 5: this one comfortably. So I'm going to wrap them in

340
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,640
Speaker 5: Portugal together both minus one and a half on a

341
00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:15,120
Speaker 5: part Lie plus two thirty that would pay out. So

342
00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:19,400
Speaker 5: That's where I'm going here, Anthony. You have a little

343
00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:23,440
Speaker 5: bit of faith here in the North Macedonians.

344
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Speaker 4: Just a tiny bit.

345
00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,800
Speaker 3: You mentioned it right, I mean this Italy defusion which

346
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,080
Speaker 3: is the real Italy and I think it's somewhere in

347
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,680
Speaker 3: the middle, of course, but the Italy at the Euros

348
00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 3: got away with defensive mistakes that didn't get punished. I thought,

349
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:39,280
Speaker 3: when you go back and look at some of those games,

350
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:43,240
Speaker 3: specifically the Spain match, even the Austrian match, you know,

351
00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 3: we were not that far away in the round of

352
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:48,000
Speaker 3: sixteen from Austria being one nil up late in that

353
00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:48,800
Speaker 3: game and the.

354
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:50,200
Speaker 4: Guy was off by a toenail.

355
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:54,880
Speaker 3: So it's not crazy to think that this Italy defense

356
00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,640
Speaker 3: has regression coming. And I do believe that this Italy

357
00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,400
Speaker 3: defense does have regression coming. But Nucien Kileen have been

358
00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,800
Speaker 3: in and out of the lineup. They've been that battling injuries.

359
00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:09,040
Speaker 3: They're not very deep defensively, and for that reason, I

360
00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:11,920
Speaker 3: think you can maybe take a flyer on North Macedonia

361
00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 3: team total over a half at plus one forty five,

362
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:19,480
Speaker 3: especially if Italy does win as I'm expecting, North Massdonia

363
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:21,879
Speaker 3: kind of goes for it and doesn't really have a

364
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,359
Speaker 3: lot to lose here, so they could you know, cause

365
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,440
Speaker 3: some damage and really just you know, throw throw balls

366
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,399
Speaker 3: to the ball and see see what works. And they

367
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,439
Speaker 3: don't have anything to lose, so the game could get

368
00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:37,200
Speaker 3: pretty open, although you know, we're probably expecting Italy to

369
00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,800
Speaker 3: keep it very tight and very controlled as they usually do.

370
00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,200
Speaker 3: That being said, it doesn't take much, so I wouldn't

371
00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:43,840
Speaker 3: hate a team total over a half.

372
00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:45,240
Speaker 4: That's pretty much the only look here.

373
00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:47,879
Speaker 3: No interest in backing Italy on the on the spread

374
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,120
Speaker 3: and not taking the plus either on North Macedonia because

375
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:53,040
Speaker 3: I think they could get overrun defensively.

376
00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,640
Speaker 5: It's going to be really interesting to see how these

377
00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 5: two games shake down, and then obviously the opening lines

378
00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:03,119
Speaker 5: if we get that Portugal Italy show down, which is

379
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 5: just a heavyweight battle for a playoff spot in the world.

380
00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,920
Speaker 5: Uh crazy, All right, We'll move on Sweden and Czech Republic.

381
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,439
Speaker 5: The Swedes there plus one to five at home, posting

382
00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:14,159
Speaker 5: the checks three to one on the money line, the

383
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 5: draw is plus two twenty five.

384
00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:16,560
Speaker 6: BJ.

385
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:20,080
Speaker 5: You you were enamored with this Czech team during the Euros,

386
00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:22,680
Speaker 5: and I have a feeling you're gonna stick with them

387
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:23,919
Speaker 5: despite some injury issues.

388
00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 1: I was, and they should have made the Semis. They

389
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,119
Speaker 1: should have beat Denmark, but that's besides the point.

390
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:29,760
Speaker 2: I'll be honest.

391
00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:33,600
Speaker 4: One plan what Denmark was up to two nil in

392
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 4: like ten minutes in that game?

393
00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, the expected goals is one point two, one point two.

394
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 1: It ended up being exactly even.

395
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:40,800
Speaker 4: Because they were up to ten minutes.

396
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,399
Speaker 3: So it was the Denmark truck, beautiful set piece for

397
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,520
Speaker 3: the first goal, beautiful cross for the second goal.

398
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 2: Whatever.

399
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,400
Speaker 1: Anyway, I think this line right here is a tattoo

400
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:54,240
Speaker 1: high for Sweden. But at the same token, I went

401
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:58,080
Speaker 1: through and I did all my prep and I found

402
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:01,000
Speaker 1: out that Patrick Chick was out, which was very sad

403
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,480
Speaker 1: to hear, along with sus Fall, which just changes pretty

404
00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 1: much everything for Czech Republic he because he is really

405
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:12,200
Speaker 1: their only threat going forward in attack. But you know,

406
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,199
Speaker 1: the Sweden team, it's interesting. You know, they won the

407
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,399
Speaker 1: group with Spain, Poland and Sloloc at the Euros with

408
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:19,600
Speaker 1: a minus one point four expected gold of French and

409
00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:21,560
Speaker 1: a lot of that obviously came in that first match

410
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,640
Speaker 1: against Spain if you remember, where they basically sat incredibly

411
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:28,199
Speaker 1: deep just for all ninety minutes and just survived and

412
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,639
Speaker 1: well a Spain onslaught. But they did play in one

413
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 1: of the easier World Up qualifying groups quit funny enough

414
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 1: with Spain, but also with Greece, Georgia and Kosovo. The

415
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 1: two matches against Spain did not go very well, even

416
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 1: though they won one of them. Final x Giakiga was

417
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,199
Speaker 1: one point six to three point one. But you know,

418
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 1: even against the other three teams in the group, they

419
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,760
Speaker 1: allowed over one expected goal in all six matches, so

420
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,399
Speaker 1: still not that great of a defensive team. Obviously they

421
00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:56,880
Speaker 1: have talent e Shach, Forsberg and Klusevski, but the Czechs,

422
00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 1: I mean, at the Euros really really good performance and

423
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:02,879
Speaker 1: then they carried that over into World Cup qualifying. In

424
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,119
Speaker 1: a group with Belgiun Wales, they finished with the plus

425
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 1: seven expected goldffrontial. But like I said, you know, with

426
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 1: no Patrick Schick missing and missing, you know, with no

427
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 1: Patrick Schick in this match, it's really tough for me

428
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,440
Speaker 1: to get behind the checks. But you know, if their

429
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,960
Speaker 1: plus half a goal line gets to even money or

430
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,160
Speaker 1: plus money, I may have to end up playing them,

431
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,199
Speaker 1: because I do have this match projected pretty much right

432
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:25,480
Speaker 1: as right out to pick them.

433
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 2: But again with no Shick, it's just it's too tough

434
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:30,480
Speaker 2: for me to play the checks.

435
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 5: And the winner of this one will play Poland, who

436
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 5: got a walk over because Russia has been booted from

437
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 5: the competition. An interesting situation day with the rest for Poland,

438
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,560
Speaker 5: I'm sure I think they're playing a friendly against someone

439
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:48,160
Speaker 5: on Thursday, just as like a warm up, but we'll

440
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,440
Speaker 5: keep an eye on that one for next week. Wales

441
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,200
Speaker 5: in Austria are the other match on Thursday. Wales plus

442
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 5: one eighty five at home Austria's plus one eighty.

443
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 6: The draw here is plus two a five.

444
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,159
Speaker 5: This is another situation like I was talking about before,

445
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:05,360
Speaker 5: where I think you're talking about an outlier situation.

446
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 6: Wales at home.

447
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 5: The Cardiff City Stadium is just going to be rocking,

448
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,359
Speaker 5: and I'm actually willing to bet into that atmosphere a

449
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:16,160
Speaker 5: little bit here. Gareth Bale, that was monitoring his situation

450
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 5: all day before this podcast, it does look like he's

451
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 5: going to be in. So this bet is kind of

452
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 5: contingent on him and Ramsey both getting the go ahead,

453
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 5: but it looks like they both will. I think Wales

454
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,400
Speaker 5: has enough talent to pull the minor upset here plus

455
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 5: one eighty five at home. I don't hate the number.

456
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 5: It's going to be the team that I want to

457
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,439
Speaker 5: be on when watching That stadium is going to be

458
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 5: electric and this team punches up well. I think we

459
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 5: were all doubting them going into this euro because people

460
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 5: were talking about their price is probably inflated from their

461
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 5: performance at Euro twenty sixteen in the story there, but

462
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 5: they've shown the ability to punch up against better competition.

463
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 5: They burned to draw against Belgium, they drew against the

464
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 5: Czech Republic. That a good showing at the Euros before

465
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 5: running into the Danes the knockout round. But they hung

466
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 5: with Italy, like this is a team that can hang

467
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 5: with superior.

468
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 6: Opposition, which Austria is.

469
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 5: But with it being at home for Wales, I like

470
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 5: the number plus one eighty five.

471
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 6: I'm expecting it to tick up too, because.

472
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 5: I have a feeling that a lot of folks like

473
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 5: you two guys are going to be on the Austrians

474
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 5: on the road.

475
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 6: BJ.

476
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of sour on this Welsh team, you know.

477
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 1: At the Euros they obviously they did make the round

478
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 1: of sixteen, but they finished the group stage with around

479
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,959
Speaker 1: of minus two expected gold differential. Outside of their win

480
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 1: against Turkey, which was very dominant, they struggled in their

481
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 1: matches against Italy and Switzerland and Denmark, and even World

482
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 1: Up qualifying, they were in a pretty difficult group with

483
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,440
Speaker 1: the Czech Republic in Belgium, also Belarus and Estonia. The

484
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 1: matches against Belarus in Estonia, they were pretty dominant over

485
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 1: a plus four I expected gold differential in four matches,

486
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 1: but the matches against Belgium and Czech Republic around the

487
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 1: minus one and a half expected gold deffential failed to

488
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 1: hold over fifty percent possession in those matches, and that

489
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 1: is key in this one because Whales the last few

490
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 1: World Cup qualifying matches and even in the Euros as

491
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 1: well as they like to just sit in a four

492
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 1: to four to two two low blocks and just see this,

493
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 1: try to try to see if they can hit him

494
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 1: on the counter with Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey. But

495
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 1: I have major major question marks at who they're going

496
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 1: to play at center back. I mean they're gonna play

497
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: Joe rudd On who has barely played for Tottenham this year,

498
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 1: Chris Metpam who plays for Bournemouth. Are they going to

499
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 1: slot Ben Davies in there to play center back? I

500
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 1: guess Nico Williams is back, so that obviously helps out

501
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 1: the Welsh team, but they really shouldn't be a pickham

502
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 1: against how against a really really good Austria team that

503
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 1: has much more talent and better underlying metrics than them

504
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 1: I mean Austria in the world. In the World Cup

505
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 1: qualifying group, they were a kind of a difficult group

506
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: with Denmark and Scotland and Israel, who is starting to

507
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 1: come up. They were highly underrated in that group. They

508
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 1: had a plus two actual world differential, but a plus

509
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 1: seven point eight expect.

510
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 2: To go differential.

511
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 1: I mean even at the Euros they really only had

512
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 1: one bad performance it was just against the Netherlands, but

513
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 1: they dominated North Macedonia. They beat Ukraine in that weird

514
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 1: match that you know, both teams were supposedly trying to draw,

515
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 1: and then they, like Anthony mentioned, they took Italy to

516
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 1: extra time and you could make the argument that game

517
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 1: was actually pretty even for.

518
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: Most of the match.

519
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 1: But again it defensively, Austria just has so much more

520
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 1: talent than Wales. You know, David Aliva, Sibitzer, Limer, Schleeger's

521
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 1: back from injury. It's a really it's a midfield that

522
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,640
Speaker 1: can really dominate anything that Wales is going to throw

523
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 1: at them. And you know Austria also has a couple

524
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 1: of scoring threats are not to bench and closet itch.

525
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 1: So I have Austria projected at plus one twenty six

526
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: I really don't think this match should be right to

527
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 1: pick them, so I love their drawn o bet line

528
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen.

529
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, I really do think this numbers is could tick up,

530
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 5: so that's why I'm pretty happy to bet Wales. I

531
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 5: think we might see him over two to one on

532
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 5: the three way muddy line. And just another thing I

533
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 5: want to mention, like the team with the Welsh, they

534
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 5: do have an ability to just hang around and get results,

535
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 5: only two defeats in their last twelve. When you're betting

536
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 5: international soccer, I think that the data is just so noisy,

537
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 5: so I'm not too concerned about teams with with you know,

538
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 5: terrible expected gole differentials or numbers because of the way

539
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 5: that the schedule is right. You're playing two games here,

540
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,400
Speaker 5: then you're playing everyone goes home to play for their

541
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 5: club teams, and then you're playing a friendly and everything

542
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 5: just gets so convoluted. So that's why I'm I'm always

543
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 5: happy kind of just draw a line through that stuff

544
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 5: for these kind of matches and why I think I'm

545
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 5: just gonna ride with the home crowd here in Cardiff.

546
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 6: Anthony tell me why I'm wrong.

547
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think from a tactical point of view.

548
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,679
Speaker 3: This game is really interesting because Austria has a lot

549
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 3: of guys in the midfield excellent pressing. They call Schlager

550
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 3: the pressing monster Limer and his time in the Bundesliga

551
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 3: as well an excellent presser, and sobbentters from the Leipzig tree,

552
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 3: and they have a lot of guys who work really

553
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 3: hard to win the ball back. And I think that's

554
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:58,199
Speaker 3: a mismatch against Wales because we saw the Euros. You know,

555
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 3: when Turkey let Wales just kind of have the ball

556
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 3: and didn't contest midfield and let Gareth Bale be Gareth

557
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 3: Bale at his advanced age and let him be the

558
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 3: creative playmaker that he is without having to do the running.

559
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 3: It got really ugly for Turkey. And Wales were excellent

560
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 3: going forward, but when they played Denmark, who had a

561
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 3: pressing system in place to win the ball off Whales.

562
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 3: Same with Italy and then even Switzerland to a lesser extent,

563
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:25,919
Speaker 3: but Switzerland.

564
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 4: Still dominated that game.

565
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 3: We saw that Wales when they're not able to just

566
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 3: get Bail or Ramsey on the ball and get them time,

567
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 3: they're not good.

568
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 4: They stink and I think that's.

569
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 3: The concern here Wales will have an aerial advantage in

570
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 3: the box. I think they can be dangerous on set pieces.

571
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 3: But if we're deciding who the more likely winner is,

572
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 3: I think it's clearly Austria based on the fact that

573
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 3: they're going to contest the midfield.

574
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 4: They're going to win the.

575
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 3: Ball a lot high up the pitch against Wales, who's

576
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 3: trying to if they try to play out from the

577
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 3: back and Austria is attacking. Group a little underrated. Such

578
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 3: a case back for stute Cart scoring goals. He was

579
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 3: out injured for a lot of the first half of

580
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 3: the season. He's made a big difference for them, and

581
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 3: I think he's a pretty good aerial presence for Austria.

582
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 3: He of course scored the goal against Italy in the

583
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 3: Euros as well. And our guy ar Natovich, who is

584
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 3: a little underrated I think generally has had a decent

585
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 3: season at Bologna and has recently found some goals himself.

586
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 3: So I think the squad town is considerably different. I

587
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 3: understand they're on the road. I understand I would love

588
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 3: to see a Scotland Wales World Cup playoff. I think

589
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 3: that would be incredibly fun. I just don't think we're

590
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 3: going to get it. Unfortunately.

591
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 5: Yes, Scotland and Ukraine will be playing for a couple

592
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 5: of months obviously with the situation in Ukraine.

593
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 6: All right, from there, let's do a quick whip around

594
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 6: for the other continents and they're qualifying.

595
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 5: We'll go back to Conker cav where you guys can

596
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 5: give your best bets there.

597
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 6: BJ you like the true North.

598
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love the Canadians.

599
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: Stronto bad at minus one forty on the road at

600
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 1: Costa Rica. So Canada's on the doorstep of the World Cup.

601
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 1: It's pretty simple. They win this match against Costa Rica,

602
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: They've qualified for the World Cup and I think they're

603
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 1: severely under priced against a very very overrated Costa Rica squad.

604
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 1: I mean, Canada, without a doubt to me, has been

605
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 1: the best team in Cockacaffro Cup qualifying. You know, a

606
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: three matches to go, Canada is a plus five point

607
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 1: five expected goal differential with a defense that's allowing under

608
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 1: one expected goal per match. You know, their defense in

609
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 1: their first two World Cup qualifying matches against Honduras in

610
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,120
Speaker 1: the United States was a little shaky, you know, three

611
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 1: around three and a half expected goals allowed in those

612
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 1: two matches, but their last nine only seven point four

613
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 1: expected goals allowed and only one opponent has carried over

614
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: one expected goals.

615
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 2: They've really put the locks down Costa Rica through.

616
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: Eleven qualifying matches plus one actual goal of the French

617
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 1: all round a minus four point five expected goal differential.

618
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 1: But what's been crazy is the over performance of their

619
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: defense seven actual goals allowed off of fifteen point five

620
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: expected goals, which is just insane.

621
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 2: Even their last three World Cup Callali flying matches.

622
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 1: The last round they kept three clean sheets against Panama,

623
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: Mexico and Jamaica, but allowed four point four expected goals.

624
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 1: And the really honestly isn't much talent to speak of

625
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 1: on the Costa Rica roster. Outside of Kailer Navas in goal.

626
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: They certainly don't have the talent to match up with

627
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 1: guys like Jonathan David and Kyle Lawrence. So I think

628
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 1: the Canadians are severely underpriced here on the road against

629
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 1: an overrated Costa Rican team.

630
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 2: So I love them drawn up bet at minus one forty.

631
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 3: Anthony, Yeah, we talk about overrated teams Panama. I mean,

632
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 3: I don't know how they have the numbers that they do.

633
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 3: I don't know how they're even in contention here. When

634
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 3: you look at the underlying numbers, the expected goals incredibly concerning,

635
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 3: and it's scary as a US fan because you know

636
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 3: it wouldn't take a ton for Panama to win this

637
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 3: game at home against Hondoras, get a result, and then

638
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, the US is going to Costa

639
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 3: Rica a place they have not done well historically and

640
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 3: they need a result, which would be scary. But Panama,

641
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 3: when you look at their numbers, not very impressive. And

642
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 3: I understand Honduras has only scored five goals in World

643
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: Cup ying, but if you look at their underlying numbers,

644
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 3: the XG suggests that should be considerably higher.

645
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 4: They're about nine and a half per one source.

646
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 3: And the thing with these ton cap games too is

647
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 3: that it's harder to get the XG data that's consistent.

648
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 3: So there are differing numbers on XG for Honduras, but

649
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 3: all of them say the same thing, which is that

650
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 3: Honduras has been pretty unlucky in front of goal and

651
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 3: they should have more goals than they should and Panama,

652
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 3: the regression indicators are the opposite in the sense that

653
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 3: they have not had an impressive campaign. Thus, far, so

654
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 3: I'm grabbing Honduras team total over a half at minus

655
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 3: one to ten. It's probably the most painful bet on

656
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 3: the board, sitting here for ninety minutes with a team

657
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 3: who's already eliminated and who knows that they're going to care.

658
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 3: Hopefully they do and they show up and they spoil

659
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 3: the party for Panama and get a goal and maybe

660
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 3: even a result. But I do think that they're undervalued

661
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 3: to score.

662
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 5: All right, let's quickly move through Africa then, BJ you're

663
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 5: looking at Morocco.

664
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, this line's way way too low on Morocco, in

665
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 1: my opinion, was the second best team at After Cup

666
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 1: Nations behind Senegal plus eight point three expected gold Toffrench

667
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 1: on only five matches, and even in World Cup qualifying

668
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 1: they all scored their opponents twenty to one. This is

669
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: a really, really good offense that can be really deadly

670
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 1: in front of the nets, you know. And the Syria

671
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 1: who plays for Sevilla, Soufaal who plays ron jers Barkak,

672
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: who plays for Frankfurt maybe the best right back in

673
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 1: the world.

674
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 2: In terms of supplying the attack in out traffic. Hemu

675
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 2: plus for PSG and.

676
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 1: Then two really really good center backs in Aguerre who

677
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,479
Speaker 1: plays for Ren and Ramon Says who plays for Wolves.

678
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 1: But what's most impressive about Morocco is during the afric

679
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: Coup of Nations they were an incredible pressing team. Seven

680
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: point five pass per defensive action, thirty eight high turnovers

681
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 1: and only five matches. They're playing the Democratic Republic of Congo,

682
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 1: who made it through World Cup qualifying when in their

683
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: group by one point over Benen in Group JA, but

684
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 1: they were incredibly lucky to do so plus six actual

685
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: world differential, but overall had a negative expected goal differential

686
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 1: for the entire qualification. In fact, they didn't even call

687
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 1: five for the Africa Cup of Nations they finished find

688
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 1: Gambia and Gabon and their qualification group. So they have

689
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: a few names you might recognize. You know, Chancell and

690
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 1: Bamboo plays for Porto, Arthur Massa Waco who plays for

691
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 1: West Ham, Lisa Brentford, the Kambo who plays for Marseille. However,

692
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: with this team drastically overperforming a World Cup qualifying coupled

693
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 1: with the fact that they haven't played a competitive match

694
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 1: together since last November, while Morocco just got to play

695
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 1: five matches up the Africa Coup of Nations and has

696
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 1: some cohesion together. This is a fantastic spot for Morocco

697
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 1: to get a huge advantage in the first leg. So

698
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 1: I have them projected around MIS twenty eighty five, their

699
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 1: money lines at plus one thirty five. So I love

700
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 1: the value on the Moroccans to get to win this

701
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 1: first first leg.

702
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 5: And Anthony, you're going a little south into West Africa

703
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 5: on Senegal.

704
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, the media just said it.

705
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 3: You know, the second best team has been Morocco, while

706
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 3: who's been the best team Senegalese. They just won the

707
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 3: African Combinations beating Egypt in the final. They should have

708
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 3: won that game in regulation, won that game maybe by

709
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 3: two goals.

710
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 4: I know bjs BJ and.

711
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 3: I both had so yeah, Egypt, the Egypt luck box

712
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 3: defense just rolled through the knockout stage of that tournament

713
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 3: just with the horseshoes up their asses.

714
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 4: I mean, it was incredible.

715
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 3: And Senegal has created the second most expected goals in

716
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 3: all of Africa.

717
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 4: Egypt just eighth best.

718
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 3: And Egypt's also considerably worse defensively and has regression coming.

719
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 3: Senegal will probably take the draw away from home. So

720
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 3: I was trying gonna go with the drawing O bett

721
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 3: plus one oh five. But if there's a likely winner,

722
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 3: it's going to be Senegal, so I think plus one

723
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 3: oh five. I'm rolling with the Senegalese to outclass their

724
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 3: friends and we get a little mane solid battle again.

725
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 5: All right, real quick, I'll let you guys go through

726
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 5: commonable in South America BJF.

727
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 6: You're looking at Brazil and Chile.

728
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, Brazil Chili under two and a half at minus

729
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: one ten. So Brazil has already qualified for the World

730
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 1: Cup and really has nothing to play for in this match.

731
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: But if you look at their team selections, actually a

732
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 1: pretty strong squad with all of their regular starters been

733
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 1: selected for these two matches. And since that is the case,

734
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 1: I mean I think this one has low events written

735
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 1: all over Brazil's defense. I mean, obviously the headlines with

736
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 1: neymar and all of their wonderful attacking players, you know,

737
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: dominates what people see. But only point eighty three expected

738
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 1: goals allowed per match throughout World Cup qualifying and Copa America.

739
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 1: They faced Chile twice over that timeframe, beat them one

740
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 1: nothing on both occasions, held Chile under one expected goal

741
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 1: in both those matches. I mean the ability over the

742
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 1: Brazilian national team to just control possession and shut matches

743
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 1: down has been really impressive over the past two years.

744
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 1: Only twice during World Cup qualification did they allow their

745
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:44,080
Speaker 1: opponents to control over fifty percent possession, and only three

746
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,800
Speaker 1: times their opponents got over more than ten shots.

747
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 2: So Chile's in de desperation mode.

748
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 1: They're betraying Peru by four points for the final spot

749
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: in the table, which would advance them to a World

750
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 1: Cup playoff, but their defense has actually been improving last

751
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 1: eight matches on one point i expected goals allowed per match,

752
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 1: when before that it was around one point six. So

753
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 1: the problem though is with Chile they don't really have

754
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 1: much threats going many threats going forward.

755
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 2: Alexa Sanchez is just way past his prime. Same thing

756
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 2: with it all.

757
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 1: So since this match doesn't mean much to Brazil, I

758
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:17,799
Speaker 1: think if they get ahead, they're just going to shut

759
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 1: it down. So I only have two point one goals projected,

760
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 1: so I like the price on under two and a

761
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 1: half goals at minus one ten.

762
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 6: Anthony looking at Luis Suarez.

763
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, what's going on with Uruguay. They have

764
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 3: the third best expected goals four in South America. This

765
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,240
Speaker 3: qualifying cycle, but they're only scoring about the six most goals.

766
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 3: They've only scored one point one five goals per ninety,

767
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 3: yet they're expected goals suggests that should be about one

768
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 3: point five per ninety, which shows me they're due for

769
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 3: a lot of positive aggression here and they're just not

770
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 3: taking any chances.

771
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 4: They hit the post like eight times in their last game.

772
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 3: It's been remarkable seeing them miss chance at a chance,

773
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 3: as every time I check in on this team, they're

774
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,879
Speaker 3: creating chances and non scoring and they get a really

775
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 3: good home smash spot in a must win situation, and

776
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:04,959
Speaker 3: I think they're playing their last two games against Peru

777
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 3: and Chile, who are two teams below them in the table.

778
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 3: They only need one win to get through here pretty much,

779
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 3: and that is never going to be a better spot

780
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 3: than this home game against Peru.

781
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:16,319
Speaker 4: So I'm going with them, and I think they're gonna

782
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 4: have to go for this at home.

783
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 3: So also one quick thing could be a good bylow

784
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 3: spot on Paraguay at home overrated Ecuador team. Paraguay underperformed

785
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 3: considerably their underline numbers and their expectations. I mean, they're

786
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 3: more talented than being the worst team in this in

787
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,919
Speaker 3: this division. So the only concern they may have quit,

788
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,439
Speaker 3: you know, they just might be done so. But otherwise, yeah,

789
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 3: I like ourguy team total over one and a half

790
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:40,359
Speaker 3: at plus one five.

791
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 5: All right, before we get to our best bets, BJA,

792
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 5: you have a pick for us out of Asia?

793
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, Iraq versus the United Arab Emirates. I mean, rat

794
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 1: can still qualify for the fourth place spots in Group

795
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 1: or Group A, but they need to win their last

796
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 1: two matches. They're playing United Airb Emirates and they need

797
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 1: also you A to drop points against South Korea in

798
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 1: the final.

799
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: Match, which is possible. Iraq has drastically.

800
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 1: Underperformed in World Cup qualification minus seven actual goal differential

801
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 1: but only a minus one point nine expected goal differential.

802
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 2: Even when they faced UA.

803
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 1: Earlier in qualification, they drew to two on the road,

804
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 1: but won the expected goals battle one point nine to

805
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 1: one point two. And uas just a very very highly

806
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 1: overrated team. They really don't deserve to be sitting in

807
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 1: third place in the group. If you look at their

808
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:28,240
Speaker 1: actual result results compared to their expected results, they've actually

809
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: lost the expected goals battle in their last six qualifying matches.

810
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 1: So I think they're due for a lot of negative regression.

811
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 1: I have Iraq projected at plus one o five at home,

812
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 1: so John Obetta at minus one twenty five, I think

813
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:41,760
Speaker 1: it's some good value.

814
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 5: All right, we'll move on to our favorite bets for

815
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 5: the World Cup qualifiers coming our way this week. Anthony

816
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 5: will let you kick it off, because you are the villain,

817
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 5: my fellow Americans.

818
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 3: I'm very sorry, but I'm backing Mexico on the money

819
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 3: line at minus one ten. I understand the US has

820
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 3: beaten Mexico the last three times they've played them. They

821
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 3: beat them in the Gold Cup Final. They were very

822
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,359
Speaker 3: fortunate to win that game. Matt Turner stood on his head.

823
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 3: They beat them in the Kankaffe Nations League, and they

824
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 3: beat them in World Cup qualifying in November. But all

825
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 3: three of those games were on US soil. Now they're

826
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 3: going on the road and they're very shorthanded in the

827
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 3: most important areas of the pitch. They won't have Brendan Aronson,

828
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 3: they won't have Weston McKenny, they will not have Matt Turner.

829
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 3: Their defense is due for a ton of negative regression

830
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 3: when you compare their expected goals allowed to their actual

831
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 3: goals allowed all those reasons, I think they're not going

832
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:32,799
Speaker 3: to be able to press Mexico as effectively as they

833
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:35,360
Speaker 3: did in the last game, which I thought was the

834
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 3: best US performance in years.

835
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 4: I just don't think they're gonna be able to recreate that.

836
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 3: Mexico has triple revenge on their minds and they're at

837
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 3: home at elevation. I like the Mexicans to win, and

838
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 3: hopefully the US can win against Panama next week and

839
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:50,839
Speaker 3: secure their spot in the World Cup.

840
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 5: I like Wales there plus one eighty five on the

841
00:38:54,920 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 5: three way money line, hosting Austria on Thursday in Ua Fookqualing.

842
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,399
Speaker 5: The Welsh have been defeated just twice in their last

843
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 5: twelve matches and they've proven to be a team that

844
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 5: can punch up well. And I think when you talk

845
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 5: about World Cup qualifiers, you're talking about international matches a

846
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 5: lot of times you just can cross out a lot

847
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 5: of the data. Is I'll share the better team on paper, yes,

848
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 5: but the Wealth should have a significant home field advantage

849
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 5: at a Cardiff City stadium that should be rocking as

850
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 5: they look to qualify against the odds for the World

851
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 5: Cup in twenty twenty two. So I'm just gonna roll

852
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 5: with my heart here, give me Gareth Bale, very handsome,

853
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:37,800
Speaker 5: Aaron Ramsey and the Welsh to pull the minor upset

854
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,359
Speaker 5: against Austria at home. BJ what about you?

855
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 1: I'm go Morocco plus one thirty five against the Democratic

856
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: Republic of Congo. Morocco was by far the second best

857
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 1: team in africup of Nations, behind Senegal plus eight point

858
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: three expected goal differential in five matches and more importantly,

859
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 1: in ORLKEEP qualifying they outscored their opponents twenty to one.

860
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 1: It's a really really talented squad, but the more impressive

861
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 1: in AFRICAUP Nations was their pressing. Their pass per defensive

862
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 1: action was seven point five, which was the best of

863
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 1: anybody in the competition, and they also created thirty eight

864
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:13,280
Speaker 1: high turnovers. The Democratic Republic of Congo barely barely scraped

865
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 1: by their group. The World Cup qualification group they won

866
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 1: by one point over Benin they had a plus six

867
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:22,400
Speaker 1: actual goal differential, but they're actually had a negative expected

868
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 1: goal differential, and more importantly, the Democratic Republic of Congo

869
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 1: hasn't played a competitive match since November fourteenth because they

870
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:32,760
Speaker 1: didn't qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations, while Morocco

871
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: got to play five matches in January and February and

872
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 1: will be the more fresh and more cohesive squad in

873
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,399
Speaker 1: this match. I have been projected around minus twenty eighty five,

874
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 1: so I think they're severely under priced here on the road.

875
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 1: So give me the Moroccans at plus one thirty five.

876
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 5: All right, everybody, we thank you for listening to another

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00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 5: episode of Wonder Golf. We'll see you on the other

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00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 5: side of the weekend and hopefully we'll be talking about

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00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 5: a few more World Cup qualifiers before we get back

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00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:03,439
Speaker 5: to the club competition. BJ Cunningham and Dubundo Letalie buff

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00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 5: pushing you the best

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00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 6: Of bluff with your bets this week.