1 00:00:01,639 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On. 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: We are not where we need to be if we're 3 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: going to be able to quote live with. The virus 4 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: remains a problem, and we're fighting it all you can 5 00:00:17,840 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: to protect yourself against what might come. Floomberg Sound on Politics, 6 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 1: Policy and Perspective from DC's top name. Stave borrowed and 7 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: spent trillions of dollars that we just don't have, and 8 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:32,160 Speaker 1: that's thrown fuel on the flyer fire of the inflation problems. 9 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: From Ohio, I don't kiss anyone's ass like him. Ohio 10 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: needs an ass kicker, not an ass kiss. Floomberg Sound 11 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Is there another 12 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 1: dark tunnel looming? Welcome to the fastest hour in politics 13 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:50,279 Speaker 1: with two big mornings for Washington Today. The I m 14 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: F says the economic outlook is worsening globally thanks to inflation, 15 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 1: and the White House says another COVID surge could be 16 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 1: on the way. Tonight, we explore both with an analysis 17 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Economics editor Michael McKee and from Dr Ja Varmah, 18 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: chief medical advisor at the Croll Institute. Later this hour, 19 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: Republicans in the House plan to use next year's debt 20 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: limit deadline to squeeze concessions from Democrats, including possible changes 21 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 1: to social Security. We'll talk about that with Bloomberg's Jack Fitzpatrick, 22 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 1: who broke the story, and we'll try to make sense 23 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 1: of it all with our signature panel back together today 24 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Chanzano here for 25 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: the hour. Today we peek over the edge of a 26 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 1: couple of major political risks with four weeks to election day, 27 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: the economy and COVID both being discussed with urgency today 28 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: in Washington. Will start with the warning from the International 29 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: Monetary Fund the i m F today cutting its outlook 30 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 1: for global growth. It's been a big story throughout the 31 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 1: day on Bloomberg, a market mover with risks of a 32 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: miscalculation by the Fed or other central banks around the world. Again, 33 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 1: this is a global view, ever increasing. White House Press 34 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: Secretary Karine John Pierre was asked about its day. If 35 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,639 Speaker 1: you listen to this program, you can probably imagine the answer. 36 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: We believe that they have the strongest monetary policy to 37 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,920 Speaker 1: deal with this moment, and we are going to allow 38 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: them to do the work that they are currently doing. 39 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 1: I'm not going to be responding to um to any 40 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: actions that they're taking, because we truly do believe in 41 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 1: the independence of the fact. Well, Mike McKee will get 42 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: into it with us, Bloomberg's economics editor joins us. Now, Mike, 43 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: welcome back to Washington. Thanks to be here. So the 44 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: I m F spooked everyone today. It's kind of interesting 45 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: to see the market reaction, but we woke up. The 46 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: real doom and gloom this morning is the I m 47 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 1: F warns of a worsening outlook. They cut the forecast 48 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 1: for global growth and it's boy, this is the conversation 49 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 1: the White House does not want to hear, right, Well, 50 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:45,920 Speaker 1: they don't want to hear it, but they knew it 51 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 1: was coming. The outlook is a doer downbeat. Uh, however 52 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 1: you want to describe it. Basically, they see the economy 53 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: in worst shape than they did in July. And that's 54 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,360 Speaker 1: a combination of the ongoing war and the impact on 55 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: energy and inflation, and the possibility that central banks could 56 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: overtighten and send the global economy into recession. There seems 57 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:13,239 Speaker 1: to be the sort of growing narrative on Wall Street 58 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,519 Speaker 1: that you hear on Bloomberg TV and radio every day, 59 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: with very few people expecting a soft landing or the 60 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: odds of recession higher now than they were a couple 61 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 1: of months ago. I think the odds of recession are 62 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: higher now than they were a couple of months ago. 63 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: But there are still some aspects to the US economy 64 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:32,359 Speaker 1: that suggests that it's a narrow window, but they might 65 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: be able to pull it off. You look at the 66 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: jobs report last week, and it was stronger than people 67 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: anticipated in some of the underlying areas, particularly for unemployment. 68 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: And so if we're going to see inflation come down, 69 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 1: uh an, unemployment not go skyrocketing. That's what the Fed 70 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: wants to see. The old status said vacancies. Job vacancies 71 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: are falling, and so if people are who are who 72 00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: become unemployed or taking jobs that are out there, then 73 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: they could do perhaps a soft landing. But we're still 74 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 1: waiting for the other side of that equation, inflation to 75 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: come down. Well that's the problem here, right It doesn't 76 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: a report like Friday give j Powell just even more 77 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 1: encouragement to pull out the sledge hammer here frontloading in 78 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: a way that maybe we don't know how long that's 79 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: going to take the kick in. Could they have already overshot, Well, 80 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: they could, they're betting that they haven't. We get the 81 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,919 Speaker 1: CPI report on on Thursday morning and it is expecting 82 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,719 Speaker 1: to show that inflation is still rising, but at a 83 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 1: slower pace. And if that's the case, then the Feed 84 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: is going to feel they're getting closer to where they 85 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 1: need to be. Perhaps not. A lot of this depends 86 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: on what happens with the opaque announcement of higher oil prices. 87 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: Is that going to push up inflation again? But right now, 88 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,239 Speaker 1: what the FT is thinking is they're almost They either 89 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:53,679 Speaker 1: are or are almost restrictive enough on the economy, um 90 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:57,840 Speaker 1: not stimulating the economy anymore, but actually retarding its growth. 91 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 1: And if that's the case, then they feel they will 92 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 1: be able to stop, but they think they need another 93 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: hundred five basis points before they get there. Once they 94 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 1: get there, then their plan is to stop and just 95 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 1: leave rates there for a long time. And that's where 96 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: people get nervous. Markets get nervous that they've already priced 97 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: in at least one cut next year because I think 98 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,160 Speaker 1: the Fed can't sustain that. So they'll be a test 99 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 1: of Wills coming up. You know, there's a conversation happening 100 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 1: at the White House fairly quietly, although we've heard Dr 101 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: fauci Uh talk about it openly, And that is the 102 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: possibility of another COVID surge this winter, with potentially a 103 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: new strain that could escape vaccines. Is that a game 104 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: changer for the economy from what I understand? No, No, 105 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 1: I'm not an epidemiologist or a doctor. I don't even 106 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 1: play one on TV. But I do keep up with 107 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: the latest news on it. And there are new strains, 108 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:53,679 Speaker 1: there are new variants, and wintertime is when these coronaviruses 109 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: come back around. So every epidemiologist seems to be saying, yes, 110 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: get prepared for another wave. But because so many people 111 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,599 Speaker 1: are vaccine and so many people have had it, we're 112 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: getting past the serious illness death face. Still a lot 113 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 1: way too many people dying. But but that doesn't worry 114 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: about supply Chaine. You're you're not going to have to 115 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 1: shut down economies, is as the general feeling, unless there's 116 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 1: some sort of surprise variant out there, and so that 117 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 1: is less of an issue than it was. What's more 118 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 1: of an issue is COVID running through China because unless 119 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: and until they change their one there's zero tolerance policy 120 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: for COVID, then you're gonna see supply chains shut down 121 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 1: on a regular basis. One of these days we'll talk 122 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: about something positive. But hey, we didn't touch the job market. 123 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,719 Speaker 1: So Michael McKee, thank you for the expertise. Is great 124 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,800 Speaker 1: to see in Washington, happy to be here. Of course, 125 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: there's no way to really predict what happens with COVID 126 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 1: here or anywhere, but it is still here in the 127 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: US and winter is coming. Dr Anthony Fauci speaking to 128 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: the USC endin Berg Center for Health Journalism about what 129 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: could be ahead. I think it would be a bit 130 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:05,559 Speaker 1: cavalier to all of a sudden say we're completely through 131 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 1: with it, because remember we were going in the right 132 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 1: direction in the summer of one, and along came delta. 133 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: Then in the winter November December of one, along came 134 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: a macron, and since then we've had multiple sub lineages 135 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 1: of a macron. Fast forward to today, we heard from 136 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 1: a Shisha, the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, with more specifics. 137 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: So predictions are always hard on these things, right, because 138 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: the virus continues to surprise us and continues to evolve. UM. 139 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: There are three or four subvariants that we are tracking 140 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: most closely. UM. They are you know, in different parts 141 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: of the world. UM, and they all arise either from 142 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 1: A B A two or A B A five kind 143 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,559 Speaker 1: of lineage. And the reason we're tracking them is because 144 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: they either have a lot more immunovativeness or they render 145 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: many of our treatments ineffective. And so we turned to 146 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 1: another voice of authority on this issue. Dr Ja Varma 147 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 1: is back with US medical advisor and fellow at the 148 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 1: Cruel Institute. As you might remember, he was former spokesperson 149 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 1: an architect of New York City's COVID nineteen pandemic response. Doctor, 150 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: it's great to have you back. How worried should we 151 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: be about winter? Well, there are basically two things that 152 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: we've come to expect, you know, since this pandemic began, 153 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: which is that every winter there are more COVID cases 154 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: due to the change in seasons. And the second that 155 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: the virus finds a way every two or three months 156 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: to produce a new variant that can increase the risk 157 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: of infections. So I don't think Americans need to be 158 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 1: sort of unduly alarmed compared to previous winters. Um. But 159 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: it's just very important to emphasize that one of the 160 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: other constants throughout this has been that getting up to 161 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: date in your vaccines is the best way to protect 162 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: yourself and your loved ones from getting seriously ill. That's 163 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: why a Shia was out there to begin with. He 164 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 1: was speaking along with the Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre, 165 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: about the new combined vaccines that they're encouraging people to get, 166 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: but he also talked about the unknown doctor into this, 167 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: the curveball that we got last last Thanksgiving with O Macron. 168 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: None of us, obviously can predict that with any certainty. 169 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: So our job is to not be in the prediction business, 170 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 1: but to be in the planning business. And so we 171 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: have a whole set of efforts that we're leading in 172 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 1: the U. S. Government to be ready should Mother Nature 173 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: throw us a true curveball like what we saw last night, 174 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 1: what should that response look like? Dctor not knowing what's 175 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: going to happen. But O Macron, you know, stopped this 176 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: in our tracks again, and as we just heard from 177 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 1: the White House coordinator, it could happen again. Yeah, so 178 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 1: there is a doomsday scenario that exists, and I'll explain 179 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 1: with that is in a moment, but I personally don't 180 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: see that. You know, based on the data that we 181 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:42,359 Speaker 1: see globally right now, the doomsday scenario would be a 182 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 1: new strain of the virus that evades all of our 183 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 1: pre existing community and by all of our immunity. It 184 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,559 Speaker 1: means that immunity that protects us from getting hospitalized and dying. 185 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: That does not appear to be the case based on 186 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 1: what we can see out on the horizon right now. 187 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: Doesn't mean you couldn't emerge in the future, and unfortunately 188 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 1: that happened. You're basically talking about a new pandemic and 189 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 1: restarting those questions about you know, closing down you know, 190 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: economic activity. I don't think that is a discussion or 191 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:12,679 Speaker 1: a scenario that is likely to happen any time in 192 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: the future. I think the most likely scenario is, you know, 193 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 1: hospitals getting overrun and what can you do to basically 194 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: decompress hospitals, especially in those areas that have low uptake 195 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:25,560 Speaker 1: of vaccination. We obviously know how to work from home. 196 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 1: Uh And I had asked this of Michael McKee before. 197 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 1: Not everybody can and if we did have another Oh, Macron, 198 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 1: what would it mean for for doc workers, for people 199 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 1: who work in the shipping industry. Could there be worse 200 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 1: supply chain issues than we've experienced or or anything on 201 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:42,679 Speaker 1: the scale that we've seen. Well, you know, I can 202 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 1: tell you from my experience here in New York, we 203 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: had a perfect test of the question about you know, 204 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: is it the virus that shuts down the economy or 205 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 1: is it aggressive public health policy actions? You know, And 206 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:55,679 Speaker 1: what we saw last December during Omicron is zero effort 207 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 1: by city or state government to restrict business activity. Yet 208 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 1: store everywhere we're closed because people were sick. And it 209 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 1: really reinforces what those of us in public health say, 210 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:07,319 Speaker 1: which is the greatest drag on the economy is not 211 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: the actions by the government to control the virus. It's 212 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 1: the virus making people sick. And like you just said, 213 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 1: not enough employees showing up at work to you know, 214 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 1: take those goods off the docks that are are what 215 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: we all survive on. And of course funding becomes another 216 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: issue here. Uh, doctor, we didn't get any of the 217 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: money that the administration asked for from Congress. Are we're 218 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 1: gonna be paying for tests and vaccines in the near future. Yeah, 219 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: and that's really what a lot of that money was 220 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 1: meant to do what we need, you know, because we 221 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:38,679 Speaker 1: don't have a universal health care system in this country. UM, 222 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:41,440 Speaker 1: it's incumbent upon the government during emergencies to provide at 223 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: least you know, essential free medical care for the priority diseases. 224 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 1: So that means the test reflections. When these numbers start 225 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 1: to go up, people are going to start to care again. 226 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 1: And you'll remember this conversation with Dr Ja Varma. Thank 227 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: you doctor. The panel's next, this is Bloomberg. This use 228 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound on with Joe Matthew on Bluebird Radio. Winter 229 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 1: is coming and it could bring some very real challenges 230 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: to the Biden administration, beginning with the economic trouble we 231 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 1: just talked about with Michael McKee. Of course, it was 232 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:21,560 Speaker 1: just yesterday that Jamie Diamond, JP Morgan Chase predicted a 233 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:24,680 Speaker 1: recession on CNBC. This again, it's fairly typical. You know, 234 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: markets go down for you know, people forecast the economy, 235 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: et cetera. The I P O market closes first, that's 236 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,720 Speaker 1: kind of happened, hiye closed a second and structure credit. 237 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 1: That's kind of happened for the most party, things can 238 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 1: get done and then it starts to affect other credit. 239 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: You saw with the guilt markets. Here you see a 240 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: lack of liquidity and a lot of markets, a lot 241 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: of intermediates can intermediately like we used to because of regulations. 242 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 1: It is going to happen. It is going to happen. 243 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: He's seen it happen before, he'll see it again, adding 244 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: there as well at the S and P five could 245 00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 1: drop another that's not a recipe when you consider the 246 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 1: potential upstick in COVID cases that we were also just 247 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 1: discussing with Dr J. Pharma. Let's assemble the panel, Rick 248 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: Davis and Jeannie Schanzano back together for our signature panel 249 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: Bloombird Politics contributors. Rick, how concerned are you when you 250 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 1: hear this kind of a conversation happening? What is it? 251 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 1: The eleventh of October? Knowing that winter could bring some 252 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: tough news on both fronts. For sure, it does seem 253 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 1: in this case where the economy and its decline is 254 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:33,719 Speaker 1: leading this time the COVID surge potential. So I think 255 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 1: last time we saw COVID brought the economy to its 256 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: knees maybe the economy can bring COVID to its knees. 257 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:43,599 Speaker 1: So uh, I think Jamie Diamond is reflecting what is 258 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 1: out there in the marketplace. And and you couple his 259 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: comments with a lot of what we're hearing out of 260 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:51,679 Speaker 1: the Fed right now about real questions is to how 261 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: to tackle inflation. It seems resistant to the growth in 262 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 1: the jobs market. Um. You know, you really start to 263 00:13:57,920 --> 00:13:59,839 Speaker 1: wonder whether or not there's a plan out there this 264 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 1: sort of try to manage through this process. Layering on 265 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:07,440 Speaker 1: a potential COVID surge. Uh, you know, would just exacerbate 266 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 1: those market forces like supply chain disruption that caused by 267 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 1: healthcare that could really complicate the economy. It's the White 268 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 1: House ready for this union. You know, I'm not sure 269 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 1: they've quite wrapped their head around it. I have to say. 270 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 1: You know, you add on to the I M F 271 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 1: and Jamie Diamond Bank of America saying the economy is 272 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 1: going to lose a hundred and seventy jobs per month 273 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 1: and unemployment rises to five point five. You have a 274 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 1: president talking at fundraiser about armageddon and the potential for 275 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: nuclear war. And as a poster, I look at the 276 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 1: polls and people wonder why are voters feeling so insecure. Well, 277 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 1: they are feeling economically insecure because they're believing what they're hearing. 278 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 1: They're believing what they're hearing, and, quite frankly, in some ways, 279 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 1: and I don't say this often, they are ahead of 280 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: the experts. I mean all the talk about we're not 281 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: in a recession yet, voter have for a long time 282 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:04,520 Speaker 1: been telling polsters, we don't care what the experts are saying. 283 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: It feels like a recession right now. Don't tell me 284 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 1: gas prices are lower, because I'm feeling pretty insecure. So 285 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 1: I think the insecurity is out there. And the reason 286 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: I'm not sure that White House has grasped it is 287 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: why would the President have been talking about nuclear war? 288 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: You know, these are the signs that they haven't quite grasped. 289 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 1: That's not the message they should be sending out four 290 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 1: weeks to the mid term. Yeah. The message that the 291 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: White House has been sending out through a Shia and 292 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 1: Dr Faucci, though, is that Look this, I know the 293 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 1: President said the pandemic was over on sixty minutes, but 294 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: think otherwise we are not where we need to be 295 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 1: if we're going to be able to quote live with 296 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 1: the virus. We've talked about this up and down, Rick Davis. 297 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: Since the twenty two billion dollars requested by the White 298 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 1: House was not put in legislation to basically end the 299 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 1: session here would have likely ended up in the Inflation 300 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 1: Reduction Act, although there were many vehicles that came before. 301 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 1: It not gonna happen. Will people complain or blame the 302 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: admitted station if we have a lack of supplies or 303 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 1: if God forbid we have to start paying for this 304 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 1: stuff ourselves. Sure, after the fact, people will complain, no 305 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: question about it. But if you look so far, people 306 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: going for the Amcron booster, which has been out there 307 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 1: quite some time, has been really lackluster, so they almost 308 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 1: have nobody to blame but themselves. You can get an 309 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 1: omacron booster today if you want it, and I know 310 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: this administration said publicly many times they're very disappointed with 311 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: how many people are going out there to do that. 312 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: And that is how you avoid a winner surge, is 313 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 1: by having these boosters in place so that there's a 314 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 1: level of immunity that can take care of it. But Jennie, 315 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: if it's still it's a boot line at Trump rallies. 316 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: He won't even say the word vaccine. He says, I'm 317 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 1: not gonna say it, and they all start booing. They 318 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 1: know even though that well, I mean he he helped 319 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 1: his shepherd the development of the vaccine and took it himself. 320 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 1: This remains a political issue, it doesn't. I think that 321 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 1: explains why the President goes out and said the pandemic 322 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: is over, and yet we are looking at Europe. There's 323 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: a surge in Europe and half hospitalizations, cases, deaths. We've 324 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 1: always seen that come before the United States. So we 325 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 1: may see that reach our shores. We hope we don't. 326 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 1: And Rick's right, people can get the next booster. But honestly, 327 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: if you ask people about this next booster, most people 328 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 1: haven't gotten it and haven't even heard about it. And 329 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 1: that is that that that is at the hands of 330 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 1: public health officials and the administration and Congress, to your point, 331 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 1: who didn't fund the billions of dollars needed to get 332 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 1: the word out and get us ready to face another 333 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 1: potential surge. Rick, you're a crisis management expert. The White 334 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: House have a special room with the bunch of spreadsheets 335 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:44,880 Speaker 1: slate out here gaming out various options for both of these. 336 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 1: How do you how do you prepare for something you 337 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 1: can't predict? Well, I think a lot of what the 338 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: White House tries to do is make sure that they're 339 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 1: able to meet the crisis when it hits, you, right, 340 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:58,119 Speaker 1: I mean they they've seemed like they were really more 341 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 1: adept at dealing with a crisis once it hits then 342 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: averting the crisis to begin with. And in some cases 343 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 1: there's nothing you can do about it, you know. There 344 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 1: they are running advertisements on boosters, for instance, and you 345 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 1: know if if if people don't go get them and 346 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:14,879 Speaker 1: you have a surge, they're gonna they're gonna have to 347 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 1: deal with that search. But this is where they get 348 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 1: marked down, is this administration has not responded in a 349 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: way that shows competence. Rick and Jennie are together and 350 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 1: for the hour on Bloomberg Sound On. We'll have more 351 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 1: of our panel ahead as we turned back to what's 352 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 1: happening on Capitol Hill and what might happen with the 353 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 1: death ceiling next year. Jack Fitzpatrick with an exclusive Next, 354 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:44,399 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from our nation's capital, Bloomberg 355 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 1: to New York, Bloomberg eleven Frio to Boston, Bloomberg one 356 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 1: oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to 357 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 1: the country, Serious XM Channel one nine and around the 358 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 1: globe the Bloomberg Business app. Then Bloomberg Radio Dot or 359 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg sond On with Joe Matthew. We spent 360 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,919 Speaker 1: the first half of this hour talking about the economic 361 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:14,119 Speaker 1: and COVID risks facing us this winter. Up next, we 362 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 1: stare over another cliff, a fiscal cliff. It sure kind 363 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,639 Speaker 1: of sounds like if Bloomberg Government's Jack Fitzpatrick. We'll be 364 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 1: up next with an exclusive here talking with key House 365 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: Republicans who want to use next year's debt limit deadline 366 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 1: to pull concessions from Democrats, and they are looking specifically 367 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 1: at the major entitlements. Of course, so many people wondering 368 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 1: what will happen with the mid terms and will the 369 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: House actually turned to Republican control, And assuming that happens, 370 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 1: some interesting things we're going to be on the way, 371 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 1: as Jack Fitzpatrick reports from Bloomberg Government. Social security and 372 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 1: Medicare eligibility changes, spending caps, safety network requirements all among 373 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:56,879 Speaker 1: the priorities for a couple of important Republicans in the 374 00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,400 Speaker 1: House who are interested in serving as the next Budget 375 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 1: Committee chair, and this could be tied with the debt 376 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 1: limit that brings us to the whole idea of the 377 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 1: fiscal cliff. He's with us now in studio. Great to 378 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:12,639 Speaker 1: see Jack, it's been a while. Yeah, thanks Fair. This 379 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 1: was Chuck Schumer on the septemn Government funding is set 380 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,919 Speaker 1: to run out Friday at midnight, roughly forty hours from now, 381 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 1: and there's no reason at all for us to get 382 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 1: anywhere near that deadline. And we really didn't. I mean, 383 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 1: I guess we walked up to it, but nobody was 384 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 1: ever predicting a government shutdown. That wasn't part of the 385 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 1: strategy this time. After I read your peace and I 386 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 1: will encourage everyone to find it on the terminal. It's important. 387 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,360 Speaker 1: We could be having a very different conversation next year. Yeah, 388 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 1: this would actually be much more explosive than the shutdown 389 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 1: deadline to the You know, a shutdown is not a 390 00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 1: good thing. A debt limit standoff is the kind of 391 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 1: thing that Janet Yellen has described as catastrophic. If the 392 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,399 Speaker 1: government cannot make payments that it agreed to make on 393 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 1: the debt limit cuts those off and they don't have 394 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 1: a deal that could cast doubt, that would cast doubt 395 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:05,400 Speaker 1: on the federal government's ability to make its agreed upon payments. 396 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,639 Speaker 1: It would be a huge deal. It's much more of 397 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: an explosive kind of deadline that is coming around the 398 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:15,120 Speaker 1: third quarter of next year UH than a government funding one, 399 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,640 Speaker 1: because the repercussions of a failure would be much worse 400 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,680 Speaker 1: than a government shutdown. It would it could be combined 401 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:25,680 Speaker 1: with one, right, but sometimes they do, UH, combine them. 402 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 1: But the the real issue here is that Republicans are 403 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,720 Speaker 1: kind of gearing up and saying, all right, that's the 404 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 1: biggest point of leverage that we will have, especially if 405 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 1: we win the House and or Senate. UH. There would 406 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: need to be a deal of some sort to suspend 407 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 1: or raise the debt limit to avoid that catastrophe. And 408 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 1: they are in conversations among themselves now to say, what 409 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,639 Speaker 1: would our opening offer be, what would we consider a 410 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,959 Speaker 1: sort of victorious compromise UH. And I was a bit 411 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 1: surprised to how directly a number I talked to all 412 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,199 Speaker 1: the members who are interested in being the next jet 413 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,399 Speaker 1: chair on the Republican side, who said social security and 414 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,399 Speaker 1: medicare need to be a focus. It may be the 415 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,239 Speaker 1: case that lower hanging fruit would be some sort of 416 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 1: quote unquote welfare reform, work crime and s that kind 417 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: of thing. But they're they're pretty direct about saying, you know, 418 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 1: raising the age of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare. 419 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: One member said, more means testing, limiting who it applies to, 420 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 1: focusing it more on poor and working class people. But 421 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 1: you know, targeting some sort of negotiations on those two 422 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,840 Speaker 1: major entitlements is something that they're talking about. It's something 423 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 1: that Joe Biden's been talking about because Rick Scott had 424 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,600 Speaker 1: had this, had this idea and in the other chamber, right, 425 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,680 Speaker 1: it was part of his competing plan with Mitch McConnell 426 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 1: to have sunset provisions for some of these major entitlements. Uh, 427 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 1: this is essentially what the White House has been warning of. Yes, 428 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: the White House Democrats, Uh, they are sort of on 429 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 1: offense on these issues. There was a bit of a 430 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,920 Speaker 1: lull during the Trump years when Republicans kind of stopped 431 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 1: talking about trying to reduce spending on Social Security and 432 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 1: to care in some way sort of the end of 433 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: the Paul Ryan era into the Trump era. It wasn't 434 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,919 Speaker 1: clear how much this was going to be a major 435 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 1: devisive issue on the campaign trail, the Republicans seem to 436 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 1: get to be getting a bit more at it. Uh. 437 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 1: And you hear the president talking about you hear Democratic 438 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: candidates going on air with attack ads on Republicans citing 439 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:23,159 Speaker 1: Rick Scott's plan. The Republicans Study Committee Budget, which is 440 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:26,880 Speaker 1: the largest caucus of House Republicans, somewhat leadership aligned, has 441 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 1: has you know, proposals for increasing the rates of eligibility, 442 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 1: things that have been characterized as privatization. So this is 443 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 1: a big issue that you know, if you remember the 444 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:41,160 Speaker 1: old ad Democrats ran, it was showing Paul Ryan pushing 445 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: a grandma off a rooftop. I believe was the thing 446 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,480 Speaker 1: that we're kind of getting back to that on the 447 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 1: campaign trail here. All right, well, but your energy is 448 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 1: palpable here. Uh And and and this is why people 449 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:53,160 Speaker 1: are going to run to read the story. But before 450 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 1: they do, bring us into your reporting a little bit here, 451 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 1: because I don't see anybody else with this and the 452 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 1: and the the sort of our struggle that's happening ahead 453 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,159 Speaker 1: of a potential change in power in control of the 454 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: House has got to be leading a lot of these 455 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 1: lawmakers to be talking to you. Is this messaging or 456 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: is this real agenda? Um? You know you can get 457 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 1: ambitious if you're one of these safe seat conservatives. It's 458 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,120 Speaker 1: is notable that these are not swing district members who 459 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:23,679 Speaker 1: are feeling under attack themselves. The people Jason Smith, Jody Arrington, 460 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,120 Speaker 1: Buddy Carter, Lloyd Smucker, Kevin hearn is the budget guy 461 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 1: for the RSC who I mentioned, These are people who 462 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 1: are gearing up saying, hey, we as a House Republican 463 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,320 Speaker 1: Conference need to decide what's our opening offer on the 464 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 1: debt limit? What would we consider a victory. They are 465 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 1: not in say Ron Johnson's position in Wisconsin and that 466 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,160 Speaker 1: tough Senate race. So there's a bit of a difference 467 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:49,159 Speaker 1: between a swing district member who doesn't really want to 468 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 1: get aggressive talking about this kind of thing and somebody 469 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,359 Speaker 1: gunning for a leadership position who has a safer reelection bid. 470 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:59,400 Speaker 1: These are not really household names when it comes to lawmakers. 471 00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 1: Is is there any ranking in terms of who's leading 472 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 1: the race here the potential next year? So Jason Smith 473 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 1: is he has a it seems a pretty good chance 474 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 1: of actually becoming ways and means chair if he gets 475 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 1: that and that's an even more influential position. It opens 476 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 1: it up for the others to go for budget chair. 477 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 1: It seems quite clear that if he does not get it, 478 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 1: he would remain his budget chair. Uh, it's you know, 479 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,080 Speaker 1: it's an influential enough position so that they would help 480 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 1: leadership go to their members and say, what are our demands. 481 00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 1: How can we get the votes to avoid a catastrophe? 482 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 1: What do we attach to that debt limit measure to 483 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,280 Speaker 1: get something fiscally conservative out of it? What could Democrats 484 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:39,679 Speaker 1: get out of this or are they going to be 485 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 1: on the ropes if they lose the House. They don't 486 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 1: have that that leverage anymore. They would be on the ropes. 487 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 1: And it has been a bit surprising the Democrats have 488 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 1: not been gearing up to try to get this done 489 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 1: ahead of time in the lame duck. I think they're distracted. 490 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,880 Speaker 1: They've got a fund of the government. They're they're trying 491 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:55,639 Speaker 1: to do the same sex marriage bill, and the lame 492 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,359 Speaker 1: duck they have other things to do, and Congress doesn't 493 00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 1: get things done months and months and months before the deadline. 494 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: The latest estimate is the deadline is the third quarter 495 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,439 Speaker 1: of next year, So that kind of puts the power 496 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 1: in the Republican's hands because they think they're gonna win 497 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 1: at least one chamber if they do in the House. 498 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,879 Speaker 1: Just lastly, does December sixte become more significant or are 499 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,400 Speaker 1: we going to have a funding mechanism that goes beyond 500 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 1: the middle of December. There's a portion, the conservative portion, 501 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,080 Speaker 1: the Freedom Caucus guys are saying we should not take 502 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 1: a deal in the lame Duck. We should kick this 503 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,879 Speaker 1: into next year. There's a there's a division among Republicans. 504 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 1: I don't think it's a catastrophe there. There could be 505 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 1: a deal, but there is a push to delay that 506 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 1: by conservatives. Great reporting from Jack Fitzpatrick, who of course 507 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,159 Speaker 1: we love to hear from on Bloomberg Sound On as 508 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,600 Speaker 1: he often holds this microphone. Thanks for being with us, Jack, 509 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,119 Speaker 1: great job, Bloomberg Government Congress reporter will reassemble the panel 510 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,240 Speaker 1: next for their take. Rick and Janie are on the way. 511 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg So On with Joe 512 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 1: Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, the fastest hour in Politics. Thanks 513 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 1: for being with us on the radio, on the satellite, 514 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 1: on the podcast. Enough scary news today to get us 515 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 1: through Halloween. It's only the eleventh of October, and I 516 00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: haven't even talked about the debate last night. It wasn't scary, 517 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:16,560 Speaker 1: Actually it was I thought fascinating. J. D. Vance and 518 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 1: Congressman Tim Ryan in Battleground, Ohio showed up for the game, 519 00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 1: both of them, at least in my humble opinion. And 520 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,600 Speaker 1: we'll hear momentarily from the panel on this well rehearsed 521 00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 1: and ready to rumble as you might expect. The big 522 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,639 Speaker 1: issues were at hand, and I really saw it as 523 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,160 Speaker 1: a microcosm for the national debate that we talked about 524 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:44,400 Speaker 1: every day. Here quickly opening remarks. Here, just a snippet 525 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 1: to give you a sense of how this began, and 526 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,119 Speaker 1: we'll bring in Rick and Jennie. Here's J. D. Vance 527 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,919 Speaker 1: off the top. You know what issue he's pointing at, inflation. Simultaneously, 528 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 1: they've borrowed and spent trillions of dollars that we just 529 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 1: don't have, and that's thrown fuel on the flyer fire 530 00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 1: of the inflation problem. And at the same time, they've 531 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 1: completely gone to war against America's energy sector. And you 532 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:04,880 Speaker 1: can't do both of those things at the same time. 533 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 1: They're each bad ideas, but when you do both of 534 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 1: them at the same time, you're gonna get record inflation, 535 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,440 Speaker 1: which is exactly what you expect to get. How Tim Ran, 536 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 1: of course, just supported all of these policies a hundred 537 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:18,520 Speaker 1: percent of the time. Response from Tim Ryan those policies, 538 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:22,400 Speaker 1: all those bills that Democrats voted for, bipartisan infrastructure bill 539 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: that's going to create six hundred thousand jobs here in Ohio. 540 00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 1: JAD advances against that. Rob Portman, the Senator who currently 541 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:32,199 Speaker 1: holds a seat a Republican, helped put that deal together. 542 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,960 Speaker 1: Look at the Chips Act, lands, the Intel project, that's 543 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 1: gonna create a hundred billion dollar investment into Ohio, that's 544 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:43,360 Speaker 1: gonna ripple throughout this entire economy, supply chains, average wage 545 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty five thousand dollars a year just from 546 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 1: last night. We have a lot more where that came 547 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: from Rick Davis and Jennie Chanzano or Bloomberg Politics contributors 548 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 1: of course our signature panel. Uh, Genie, this was quite 549 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 1: a go around here. I don't know if you agree 550 00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 1: with me, but these seem to be fairly too, fairly 551 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 1: well matched and very well prepared candidates, and it was 552 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 1: a largely substantive conversation despite some of the arguments that 553 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,520 Speaker 1: we've seen over the last year. It was a feisty 554 00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 1: debate and it was well worth watching, and they hit 555 00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 1: on so many topics. I mean, I have to say 556 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:20,160 Speaker 1: everything from as you mentioned, inflation and China policing and 557 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 1: same sex marriage and you know, the borders, certainly crime. 558 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 1: I mean, it was you know, it was substantive. I 559 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 1: agree with you, and you know, I think our assessment 560 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,320 Speaker 1: all along has been that this is a really, really 561 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 1: tough state for Tim Ryan. But if any Democrat can, 562 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 1: you know, to take on the herculean task of of 563 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 1: flipping Ohio, it would be Tim Ryan. He is quite 564 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:47,480 Speaker 1: a formidable candidate for Democrats. He does take on his 565 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 1: own party in his own leadership, but it is still 566 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,480 Speaker 1: really an uphill battle for him, and he's facing a 567 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 1: candidate that I have to say, I was surprised by 568 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 1: how strong vance came out last night. The real clear 569 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 1: pole of poles. The r CP average has j d 570 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,720 Speaker 1: Vance up by one point four percentage points. Did he 571 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 1: surprise he was, well, Rick, you know, I wasn't really 572 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,720 Speaker 1: surprised by him. I mean, he was tenacious candidate in 573 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,560 Speaker 1: the primaries. He he knows his stuff, he's a well, 574 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,680 Speaker 1: he's kided guy. I mean, I wasn't surprised by his 575 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:19,920 Speaker 1: debate performance. Um. Uh. If anything, I always thought this 576 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 1: as being sort of a real professional uh. Tim Ryan 577 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 1: a veteran of Congress, and j D Vance you know, Uh, 578 00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 1: somebody who has used the written word. Uh. No, no 579 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:35,840 Speaker 1: doubt that he can do well with the spoken word 580 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,040 Speaker 1: to advance his career. And so I've been watching this 581 00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 1: race very closely because I don't think there's a more 582 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,680 Speaker 1: important state out there than know how, and I don't 583 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 1: think there's a more important race in this one, because 584 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:49,479 Speaker 1: this one is truly a dead heat, and and different 585 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:53,720 Speaker 1: from others where the differences between the candidates are pretty substantial. Uh. 586 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,920 Speaker 1: These two guys are party line guys, and Jade Vance 587 00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,080 Speaker 1: is carrying the Republican line and Tim Ryan's carrying the 588 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 1: Democratic line. And and the reality is they didn't stray 589 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,160 Speaker 1: far from that in this debate. There were a couple 590 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 1: of um I would say, gratuitous moments last night, um 591 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,840 Speaker 1: and uh one on each of their sides, but that 592 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 1: didn't attract from a generally UH, I think a very 593 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,200 Speaker 1: helpful debate for for voters of Ohio. So you would 594 00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 1: disagree with Congressman Ryan that he is closer to Rob Portman. 595 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 1: I think he was making that suggestion there in that 596 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 1: line than g d Evans. Yeah. No, look, I mean 597 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 1: there's only one Rob Portman. Uh. Look, I mean it's 598 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 1: pretty clear to me and all the debates that I've 599 00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:36,320 Speaker 1: watched this year is Democrats are running away from Joe 600 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,640 Speaker 1: Biden in the Democratic orthodoxy, right, it's just not selling 601 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,960 Speaker 1: out there. They are critical of this administration on inflation. Uh. 602 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 1: And the only place that they really sound like orthodox 603 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 1: Democrats is when they start talking about abortion, which is 604 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,840 Speaker 1: the one issue that they seem to have some advantage 605 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:55,160 Speaker 1: on going into election day. So, um, I think it's 606 00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,360 Speaker 1: it's much harder for a member of a party to 607 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,680 Speaker 1: distance themselves from that party. Uh and and co opting 608 00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 1: uh Rob Portman. I'm sure he's very impressed with his 609 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,000 Speaker 1: uh standing in the state coming to an end here, 610 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:12,600 Speaker 1: But the reality is, uh, most voters vote along party 611 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,920 Speaker 1: line anyway right now. And so the idea that he's 612 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 1: gonna get Republicans to vote for him just because he 613 00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,920 Speaker 1: thinks Rob Portman is a good guy, I would say, 614 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 1: is shooting in the wrong direction. Okay, Jennie. Each candidate 615 00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,840 Speaker 1: questioned the other guy has fitness for office. You know, 616 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 1: you shouldn't even be here kind of thing, and they 617 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:34,440 Speaker 1: did let their differences air out. Tim Ryan really took control, 618 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:38,200 Speaker 1: grabbed the wheel with both hands when he went after 619 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,800 Speaker 1: Tim h J d Vance and his relationship with Donald Trump. 620 00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: I'm gonna walk you through the way this works here again, 621 00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,280 Speaker 1: his Congressman Tim Ryan. And I think the problem is 622 00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 1: when you have guys like J. D Vance who can't 623 00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,840 Speaker 1: stand up to anybody, Like just a few weeks ago 624 00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:58,960 Speaker 1: in Youngstown on the stage, Uh, Donald Trump said to J. 625 00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 1: D Vance, all you do is kiss my ass to 626 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,760 Speaker 1: get my support. He said that that's bad because that 627 00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 1: means J. D Vance is gonna do whatever he wants. 628 00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,280 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell's given him forty million, he's gonna do what 629 00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,719 Speaker 1: he wants. And Peter Teal gave him a fifteen millions. 630 00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 1: Gonna do what he wants. And here's the thing that's 631 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:19,040 Speaker 1: most troubling about this lack of courage is that after 632 00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:23,080 Speaker 1: Trump took J. D Vance's dignity from him on the 633 00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 1: stage in Youngstown, J d Vance got back up on 634 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:28,920 Speaker 1: stage and said, start shaking his hand, take a picture, saying, hey, 635 00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,560 Speaker 1: aren't we having a great time here tonight? So look, 636 00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,680 Speaker 1: whether this is important to you or not, Actually, Tim 637 00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 1: Ryan was pretty accurate here. Here. Let's go to the 638 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:40,000 Speaker 1: seventeenth of September. This is Youngstown, Donald Trump in New 639 00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,720 Speaker 1: York Times to a fake story today big front page 640 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 1: that j D wasn't sure if he wanted my support. 641 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,120 Speaker 1: J D is kissing my ass, he wants my silp? 642 00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,680 Speaker 1: What's up? I'm eighteen points up. If I was eighteen 643 00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,960 Speaker 1: points down, he wouldn't want my support. And then yes, 644 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 1: j D. Vance was introduced to come up, brought him 645 00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 1: up on the stage at the podym. We're having a 646 00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 1: good time. Is a great day of the president? Back? While? Okay, 647 00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,960 Speaker 1: so Tim Ryan essentially what he said again, you may 648 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:06,880 Speaker 1: not care about that exchange, but it's one that we 649 00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 1: spent a lot of time on last night. J D. 650 00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:12,600 Speaker 1: Vance came back following the attack from Ryan. I'm not 651 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,960 Speaker 1: going to take lectures on dignity and self respect from 652 00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,720 Speaker 1: a guy caught on video kissing up to Chuck Schumer 653 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:19,959 Speaker 1: and begging him for a promotion to his next job. 654 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:21,960 Speaker 1: That's the kind of guy that Tim Ryan is now. 655 00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:24,320 Speaker 1: He just said, it's so funny. We're gonta close to 656 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,600 Speaker 1: Halloween and Tim Ryan is put on a costume where 657 00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:29,759 Speaker 1: he pretends to be a reasonable moderate. You know what 658 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:31,759 Speaker 1: I'm gonna ask both of you here, Jeanie Chanzy, No 659 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,319 Speaker 1: was this a draw? No? I don't think it was 660 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 1: a draw. There was a lot of kissing, but it 661 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:39,919 Speaker 1: wasn't the kind that if there's any kind of love 662 00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,960 Speaker 1: on either side. But you know, I don't think I 663 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,319 Speaker 1: don't think it necessarily was a draw. And I'll tell 664 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,839 Speaker 1: you why I thought that, j D. I thought that 665 00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 1: Tim Ryan rather, he was able to differentiate himself in 666 00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:55,239 Speaker 1: an important way. I mean this whole exchange about that 667 00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 1: you just played, so I won't repeat the bad words. Um, 668 00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,839 Speaker 1: you know that came Becau has Vance kept accusing him 669 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,000 Speaker 1: of being in Congress for twenty years. And this is 670 00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,120 Speaker 1: why I was surprised by how good vance His performance was, 671 00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,280 Speaker 1: because he's not a politician. He hasn't been in office 672 00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:13,040 Speaker 1: like Ryan. But Ryan was able to come back and 673 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:14,680 Speaker 1: he was able to say, and this is where I 674 00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,719 Speaker 1: disagree with with Rick that I have not held the 675 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:21,279 Speaker 1: Democratic party line I've run against Nancy Pelosi, I put 676 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,920 Speaker 1: ads out early on China. I've been with Trump on 677 00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:27,600 Speaker 1: NAFTA and defense, and I opposed Joe Biden on many things. 678 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:29,719 Speaker 1: So he was able to say that he is not 679 00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,840 Speaker 1: a typical Democrat, and I thought he did that very effectively, 680 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 1: And for that reason, I did not think it was 681 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:38,319 Speaker 1: a draw. I think Tim Ryan made himself heard in 682 00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,200 Speaker 1: terms of who he is as an independent moderate voice. 683 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,640 Speaker 1: Whether that wins over Republicans is another question, And for 684 00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:46,279 Speaker 1: that reason, I thought he did better. But I thought 685 00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 1: Vance did a good job for somebody who's not accustomed 686 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 1: to debating like this. What's your thought on that reckon? 687 00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,320 Speaker 1: Does this move the needle? Well, look, I mean I 688 00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:59,000 Speaker 1: think by most polls that you just discussed um uh 689 00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,839 Speaker 1: Vance as a slight lead UH. And it's a good 690 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,799 Speaker 1: year for Republicans, and so it's really incumbent upon Tim 691 00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:10,800 Speaker 1: Ryan to change the dynamic and and and pleading UH 692 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:14,000 Speaker 1: with Republican and swing voters that he's not they're kind 693 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,680 Speaker 1: of Democrat after serving twenty years Congress and pulling the 694 00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:20,160 Speaker 1: party line is gonna be really hard for him. So 695 00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,000 Speaker 1: when you look at what Vance has got to do, 696 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,359 Speaker 1: to get his vote out and find that extra four 697 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,560 Speaker 1: or five points to be elected, versus what Ryan has 698 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,560 Speaker 1: to do, which is turning himself into a pretzel in 699 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,000 Speaker 1: order to convince people that he's not a real Democrat 700 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:36,160 Speaker 1: and overcome a deficit of probably two or three points. Man, 701 00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,680 Speaker 1: I'd rather have that Republican line every day if that's 702 00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:42,480 Speaker 1: the set up. Fascinating. Uh, We've got some important debates 703 00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:46,320 Speaker 1: coming uh this week, the culminating with Friday Herschel, Walker, 704 00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,759 Speaker 1: Raphael Warnock or any of these debates, Genie going to 705 00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,960 Speaker 1: change the landscape. Because there's been a lot of single 706 00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,759 Speaker 1: debate races. That's one of them. I'm assuming it's a 707 00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,680 Speaker 1: one and done for for Walker and Warnock. Are we 708 00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:00,719 Speaker 1: gonna get to a point where these are a thing 709 00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,480 Speaker 1: of the past. Yeah. I Mean I've been frustrated, as 710 00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:05,680 Speaker 1: you know about the lack of debates. I wish there 711 00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:07,759 Speaker 1: was more, but of course our candidates and campaigns they 712 00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:09,680 Speaker 1: don't want them. The one I'm really going to watch 713 00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:12,359 Speaker 1: as a Walker Warnock because of course in debates, you know, 714 00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,120 Speaker 1: you can't do harm. That's the that's the rule. You 715 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,839 Speaker 1: shouldn't harm yourself. And I think there's a potential that 716 00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 1: herschel Walker, again new to this style of of of politicking, 717 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:23,600 Speaker 1: could do that. So I think that's going to be 718 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,319 Speaker 1: a very important debate to watch. Otherwise, I don't think 719 00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,560 Speaker 1: it changes much, and if people vote party line, it's 720 00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:31,440 Speaker 1: not going to change anything. Rick, you prepared candidates for House, 721 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,600 Speaker 1: Senate and presidential debates, which you encourage your candidate now 722 00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:38,239 Speaker 1: to take as many debates as possible, or that's an 723 00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:42,400 Speaker 1: age gone by. I think if I were advising herschel 724 00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,080 Speaker 1: Walker's campaign, and I would never try to do that, 725 00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:47,319 Speaker 1: I would tell him run from any debate that he 726 00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,240 Speaker 1: could possibly be offered. So it depends on the candidate. 727 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,080 Speaker 1: I think he means, Rick, great to have you back. 728 00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,520 Speaker 1: Rick Davis and Jeanie Schanzano. Can't get enough of these two. 729 00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,040 Speaker 1: That's why there are signature panel on the fastest hour 730 00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:00,960 Speaker 1: in Politics. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg