Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: President Trump intensified his threats on Iran over the weekend
Speaker 2: in an expletive ridden truth social post, threatening to bomb
Speaker 2: around civilian infrastructure, and on Monday, Trump doubled down.
Speaker 1: We're giving them till tomorrow eight o'clock Eastern time, and
Speaker 1: after that they're gonna have no bridges, They're gonna have
Speaker 1: no power plants.
Speaker 2: Eight pm Eastern Time on Tuesday is the latest deadline
Speaker 2: Trump has given Iran to reopen the Straight of Hormus
Speaker 2: to shipping traffic in an effort to ease oil price
Speaker 2: shocks rippling around the globe.
Speaker 1: They asked for an extension of seven days, right, I said, Steve,
Speaker 1: give them ten days. Ten days is up actually today,
Speaker 1: So I gave him a leven. I guess indirectly, I
Speaker 1: thought it was inappropriate.
Speaker 2: The day after Easter, as the clock ticks on that ultimatum,
Speaker 2: Trump deflected questions about the potential of a ceasefire.
Speaker 1: I can't talk about ceasefire, but I can tell you
Speaker 1: that we have a active, willing participant on the other side.
Speaker 1: They would like to be able to make a deal.
Speaker 2: This morning, Iranian state media reported that Iran had rejected
Speaker 2: a US proposal for a temporary ceasefire and that it
Speaker 2: instead wants a permanent end to the war. After weeks
Speaker 2: of mixed messages, Trump's press conference provided little new clarity
Speaker 2: on where the conflict could go from here, with a
Speaker 2: deal to open the Strait of Hormuz or more destruction.
Speaker 1: Do I want to destroy their infrastructure now? It will
Speaker 1: take them one hundred years to rebuild right now. If
Speaker 1: we left today, it would take them twenty years to
Speaker 1: rebuild their country, and it would never be as good
Speaker 1: as it was. And the only way they're going to
Speaker 1: be able to rebuild their country is to utilize the
Speaker 1: genius of the United States of America.
Speaker 2: I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, Trump's threats on Iran
Speaker 2: are escalating and his deadline to open the Strait of
Speaker 2: Hormuz is looming. I speak with Bloomberg White House correspondent
Speaker 2: Courtney Subramanian to unpack the state of negotiations between the
Speaker 2: US and Iran and what comes next.
Speaker 3: This all, to me suggested that maybe the administration is
Speaker 3: not as close to an exit as the President has projected.
Speaker 3: Over the past couple weeks.
Speaker 2: In a post over the weekend and in a press
Speaker 2: conference today, Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike civilian infrastructure, targets, bridges,
Speaker 2: power plants. Courtney, can you put into context for us
Speaker 2: just how extreme these threats are.
Speaker 3: He specifically laid out a scenario in which the US
Speaker 3: could bomb civilian bridges, energy infrastructure and said that these
Speaker 3: bridges would be burning. It would be gone by twelve
Speaker 3: o'clock tomorrow if Roan was not willing to meet the
Speaker 3: deadline that he set and meet the ultimatum of reopening
Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz, And of course that raises a
Speaker 3: lot of alarm bells around the world. That would be
Speaker 3: a violation of the Geneva Conventions and would be considered
Speaker 3: a war crime. Israel in particular, I think is a
Speaker 3: big question mark over this supposed threat, especially because they
Speaker 3: have said recently that a part of their objectives was
Speaker 3: that they wanted to leave a functioning state for the
Speaker 3: opposition to take control of. They wanted to give the
Speaker 3: Iranian people a reason to fight for the state and
Speaker 3: push back against the power structures, and so going after
Speaker 3: these civilian targets would be a misalignment with the Israeli objectives,
Speaker 3: which the US has said they are in complete coordination
Speaker 3: and an alignment with Israel.
Speaker 2: On does this potential for US escalation open the door
Speaker 2: to a new level of response from Iran? What can
Speaker 2: you expect Iran to do if the US targets civilian
Speaker 2: infrastructure or even threatens to do so.
Speaker 3: They have said they would retaliate. And if you look
Speaker 3: at some of the reasoning and the rationale from the
Speaker 3: US as to why they launched this military campaign, they
Speaker 3: paint Iran as the world's number one terrorists, a terrorist
Speaker 3: state that has constantly targeted the US over the last
Speaker 3: few decades. And I think that especially given their objectives,
Speaker 3: which is survival, at this point, we should expect to
Speaker 3: see some sort of retaliation, whether that is on US
Speaker 3: soil or an US military basis in the Gulf region.
Speaker 2: One of the key leverage points in this war for Iran,
Speaker 2: and one of the key priorities for the Trump administration
Speaker 2: right now, is the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has been
Speaker 2: trying to get around to open the Strait of Hormuz,
Speaker 2: issuing a series of ultimatums to the country over the
Speaker 2: past few weeks. What message does that shifting timeline send Iran.
Speaker 3: You know, the President has said that he thinks talks
Speaker 3: are going well in a series of interviews he's done
Speaker 3: with reporters of the last twenty four hours. The idea
Speaker 3: is to buy more time because he has escalated these
Speaker 3: threats so much. The problem is the Strait of Hormuz
Speaker 3: is such a point of contention, particularly because Iran sees
Speaker 3: that as one of their biggest leverage points in these negotiations,
Speaker 3: in this entire war. This is something they economically are
Speaker 3: benefiting from, of course, but also it's allowing them to
Speaker 3: drag on this conflict. The US, of course, would like
Speaker 3: to see Iran give up control of that strait in
Speaker 3: order to move forward, and I think they are just
Speaker 3: at exact opposite ends of agreement on who should control
Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaker 2: Trump's press conference really brought that into relief. Trump said
Speaker 2: that the spoils quote unquote should go to the victor
Speaker 2: in Iran, which he said was the US, and that
Speaker 2: instead of Iran charging ships to transit the straight, it
Speaker 2: should be the US collecting the tolls.
Speaker 1: I'd rather do that than let them have them run.
Speaker 1: Why shouldn't we with a winner.
Speaker 2: How do you solve that disagreement over who should collect
Speaker 2: tolls of the straight of hormus in a day?
Speaker 3: I don't think you can. The problem here is Trump
Speaker 3: views everything through the Venezuela model, which he again referenced today. Right,
Speaker 3: this extraction of Nicholas Maduro and then going in and
Speaker 3: working with the remaining government and definitely taking over the
Speaker 3: oil industry is not really a model that you can
Speaker 3: replicate in a country as big as Iran, in a
Speaker 3: region where this industry is so vital and critical to
Speaker 3: the countries around it and involved so many players, regional players.
Speaker 3: But the president doesn't seem to see that, and I
Speaker 3: think it's going to take more than a day to
Speaker 3: find common ground between these two sides.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about the state of negotiations right now,
Speaker 2: because Axios had reported that there were discussions about reaching
Speaker 2: a potential forty five day ceasefire between the US and Iran,
Speaker 2: But this morning, Iranian state media reported that Iran rejected
Speaker 2: a US proposal for a temporary ceasefire and that it
Speaker 2: instead wants a permanent end to the war. Where does
Speaker 2: this all leave negotiations and talks with just a day
Speaker 2: on the clock before the president's latest deadline.
Speaker 3: White House officials have said this is one of the
Speaker 3: me any ideas on the table that the President is considering,
Speaker 3: which I think is probably true for any set of
Speaker 3: negotiations this administration has been through with regard to other conflicts.
Speaker 3: But we also have heard from Iran in different points
Speaker 3: in this conflict where they have refuted some of the
Speaker 3: messaging we've seen out of Washington. I mean, these conversations
Speaker 3: are happening, you know, behind the scenes, through text messages,
Speaker 3: through phone calls. So I think it is hard to
Speaker 3: take either side at face value at this point until
Speaker 3: we get to this you know, deadline and see what
Speaker 3: the US is willing to do, you know, whether or
Speaker 3: not Tehran is meeting their ultimatum at this.
Speaker 2: Point, right Iran has seen Trump pull out of the
Speaker 2: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear deal that was
Speaker 2: worked out between the US and Iran. This year, the
Speaker 2: US and Israel attacked Iran while negotiations with the country
Speaker 2: appeared to be ongoing. So I'm wondering, from Iran's perspective,
Speaker 2: how does that context weigh on them as these talks
Speaker 2: move forward. Why believe that this round of negotiations will
Speaker 2: be different.
Speaker 3: The US has used this playbook before. You know, we've
Speaker 3: seen them talk about negotiation, characterize it or mischaracterize it
Speaker 3: as going well, and then you know, going into an
Speaker 3: action that the administration wants to take. Anyway, you know,
Speaker 3: from Tehran's perspective, this could all be a replay of
Speaker 3: what happened last June when the US decided to attack
Speaker 3: Iran's nuclear facilities. There's just been an erosion of trust
Speaker 3: with the president's negotiators, Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner, his
Speaker 3: son in law, which is probably why we've seen Vice
Speaker 3: President jd Vance enter the negotiations. He's also been speaking
Speaker 3: on behalf of the administration and taking a much more
Speaker 3: prominent role this time.
Speaker 2: And Courtney, where is Israel in all this? Can any
Speaker 2: deal be meaningful for i Ran without Israel's cooperation or
Speaker 2: sign on.
Speaker 3: That's one of the biggest questions to me. I think
Speaker 3: they're one of the biggest puzzle pieces in putting this
Speaker 3: all together. As you mentioned, any deal that the President's
Speaker 3: negotiators workout needs to be coordinated with Israel, who has,
Speaker 3: by the way, continued attacking even into this week, even
Speaker 3: into today. But he does have a very close relationship
Speaker 3: with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyaho and we did hear from
Speaker 3: Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday that he was in contact. He
Speaker 3: had called the President to congratulate him on the search
Speaker 3: and rescue efforts of the two fighter pilots whose jet
Speaker 3: was downed in Iran. Netanya who has been very clear
Speaker 3: that he has an open and frank relationship with President Trump,
Speaker 3: and Key has talked about the military objectives for Israel.
Speaker 3: I think they have been mostly aligned with the US
Speaker 3: on guaranteeing that Iran could never receive a nuclear weapon,
Speaker 3: that they want to cease their missile program. But again
Speaker 3: these are huge points of contention that Tehran has not
Speaker 3: come close to agreeing to. So where the status of
Speaker 3: these negotiations are at is still a question to be answered.
Speaker 2: What about other Gulf states? What kind of guarantees would
Speaker 2: they want out of a potential ceasefire deal or a
Speaker 2: permanent end to the war, and do they have a
Speaker 2: seat at the negotiating table.
Speaker 3: We've seen the Golf States being pushed closer to the
Speaker 3: US mostly because they don't have an option. They are
Speaker 3: probably pretty desperate for an off ramp as well, especially
Speaker 3: with the closing of the strait and some of the
Speaker 3: economic ramifications we've seen. But also, you know, even the
Speaker 3: attacks from Tehran on the region and on these countries.
Speaker 3: I think they are all pushing for some sort of
Speaker 3: last ditch effort to achieve a ceasefire in these final
Speaker 3: hours of the president's deadline. But the question is, you know,
Speaker 3: whether they will be successful in convincing the President to
Speaker 3: find some common ground.
Speaker 2: Much of President Trump's Monday press conference was devoted to
Speaker 2: celebrating the success of a US mission to rescue the
Speaker 2: two airmen whose jet was shot down last week in Iran.
Speaker 1: One of the largest, most complex, most harrowing combat searches.
Speaker 1: I guess you would call it a search and rescue mission.
Speaker 2: What is this episode? The shooting down of the jet
Speaker 2: in the first place, and the rescue mission tell us
Speaker 2: about how the US's military operations are going and Iran's
Speaker 2: military capabilities.
Speaker 3: You know, the US sees this search and rescue effort
Speaker 3: and the successful rescue of these two pilots as an
Speaker 3: affirmation of US forces and the military campaign, and Iran
Speaker 3: sees the downing of a US jet as a success
Speaker 3: as well. It's a question of survival. And you know,
Speaker 3: as much as the President said they have obliterated their navy,
Speaker 3: their air force, Iran still has the capabilities to put
Speaker 3: up a fight, and I think that is one of
Speaker 3: the central problems with finding an off ramp here. So
Speaker 3: it's given both sides a reason to keep going and
Speaker 3: no reason to find a way out.
Speaker 2: It all is a reminder that Trump campaigned on getting
Speaker 2: out of forever wars. So I'm wondering how this latest
Speaker 2: chapter in the Iran War war, more than a month in,
Speaker 2: is playing with Trump's base.
Speaker 3: Polling has told us that a lot of the President's supporters,
Speaker 3: his core based supporters, are with him, which is something
Speaker 3: we've seen throughout his first term and second. But there
Speaker 3: is a real mismatch with what the President promised coming
Speaker 3: into office, coming into politics, right, This was a man
Speaker 3: who very much said was against foreign intervention, was against
Speaker 3: dragging the US into new conflicts. But a lot of
Speaker 3: Republicans within his party have really questioned his decisions on
Speaker 3: dragging this war out, especially as we get closer to November.
Speaker 3: A lot of previous elections have told us that most
Speaker 3: US voters lock in their opinions by early summer ahead
Speaker 3: of midterm elections. That's getting pretty close. And we still
Speaker 3: have no idea about whether the US will hold to
Speaker 3: these timelines that the President has promised, particularly because he
Speaker 3: keeps extending them. So, you know, if gasoline prices are
Speaker 3: still increasing, if the President is talking about the war
Speaker 3: in Iran instead of talking about tackling the housing crisis
Speaker 3: or talking about his economic agenda, then I think there's
Speaker 3: going to be real questions about whether his party is
Speaker 3: going to be successful in November.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the base seems to be loyal to Trump even
Speaker 2: through the Iran war, but the majority of Americans, according
Speaker 2: to CNN and Fox polling, does approve of this war.
Speaker 3: Republicans are extremely anxious about this war, especially as it
Speaker 3: drags on the deadline of how long he said this
Speaker 3: would the Americans would have to endure. The economic implications
Speaker 3: of this war are fast approaching, and oil prices are
Speaker 3: not coming down. You know, we have reported that the
Speaker 3: administration is even looking into modeling if oil prices jumped
Speaker 3: to one hundred and fifty to two hundred dollars a barrel.
Speaker 3: That does not line up with the economic message that
Speaker 3: Republicans are pushing ahead of November.
Speaker 2: And the Trump administration has asked for one point five
Speaker 2: trillion dollars for the Department of Defense in its next budget,
Speaker 2: which would be a record amount of spending. So that
Speaker 2: just speaks to the amount of resources that the Trump
Speaker 2: administration wants to expend on this.
Speaker 3: War, especially when they're cutting funding for domestic programs and
Speaker 3: some of the agencies like housing. Right, that is a
Speaker 3: huge issue and will be a huge issue in November.
Speaker 2: Lastly, Courtney, I want to ask about support for this
Speaker 2: war on the international stage. Trump has asked the US's
Speaker 2: NATO allies to get involved in the Iran war. They haven't.
Speaker 2: He's threatened to withdraw from the alliance. He's criticized the alliance.
Speaker 2: Trump is scheduled to meet with NATO's Secretary General Mark
Speaker 2: Rutta later this week, and Trump often talks about who
Speaker 2: has the best cards to play. I'm wondering who holds
Speaker 2: the cards here.
Speaker 3: I mean, ultimately the president does. I think he's proven
Speaker 3: through and through at several points when he's gone after
Speaker 3: our NATO allies and questioned their role and their commitments.
Speaker 3: You know that they always end up coming to Washington
Speaker 3: to try and convince him of the importance of the
Speaker 3: NATO alliance and why it's critical that the US stay
Speaker 3: in this alliance, which is why I think we are
Speaker 3: seeing Ruta come to the US this week to try
Speaker 3: and again, you know, educate the President, charm him as
Speaker 3: he has in the past, and convince him that even
Speaker 3: though there is great trepidation about the size and scope
Speaker 3: of this campaign and involvement, that that does not detract
Speaker 3: from the US ally's commitment to the US. But I
Speaker 3: think Iran has been almost a bridge too far for
Speaker 3: many of these countries who are not willing to follow
Speaker 3: the President down this path, especially as there is no
Speaker 3: clear end in sight at this point, despite these negotiations,
Speaker 3: which have dragged on frankly for weeks.
Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.
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