WEBVTT - Trump Ratchets Up Iran Threat With One-Day Countdown

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump intensified his threats on Iran over the weekend

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<v Speaker 2>in an expletive ridden truth social post, threatening to bomb

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<v Speaker 2>around civilian infrastructure, and on Monday, Trump doubled down.

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<v Speaker 1>We're giving them till tomorrow eight o'clock Eastern time, and

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<v Speaker 1>after that they're gonna have no bridges, They're gonna have

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<v Speaker 1>no power plants.

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<v Speaker 2>Eight pm Eastern Time on Tuesday is the latest deadline

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<v Speaker 2>Trump has given Iran to reopen the Straight of Hormus

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<v Speaker 2>to shipping traffic in an effort to ease oil price

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<v Speaker 2>shocks rippling around the globe.

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<v Speaker 1>They asked for an extension of seven days, right, I said, Steve,

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<v Speaker 1>give them ten days. Ten days is up actually today,

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<v Speaker 1>So I gave him a leven. I guess indirectly, I

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<v Speaker 1>thought it was inappropriate.

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<v Speaker 2>The day after Easter, as the clock ticks on that ultimatum,

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<v Speaker 2>Trump deflected questions about the potential of a ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 1>I can't talk about ceasefire, but I can tell you

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<v Speaker 1>that we have a active, willing participant on the other side.

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<v Speaker 1>They would like to be able to make a deal.

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<v Speaker 2>This morning, Iranian state media reported that Iran had rejected

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<v Speaker 2>a US proposal for a temporary ceasefire and that it

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<v Speaker 2>instead wants a permanent end to the war. After weeks

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<v Speaker 2>of mixed messages, Trump's press conference provided little new clarity

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<v Speaker 2>on where the conflict could go from here, with a

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<v Speaker 2>deal to open the Strait of Hormuz or more destruction.

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<v Speaker 1>Do I want to destroy their infrastructure now? It will

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<v Speaker 1>take them one hundred years to rebuild right now. If

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<v Speaker 1>we left today, it would take them twenty years to

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<v Speaker 1>rebuild their country, and it would never be as good

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<v Speaker 1>as it was. And the only way they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be able to rebuild their country is to utilize the

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<v Speaker 1>genius of the United States of America.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News Today. On the show, Trump's threats on Iran

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<v Speaker 2>are escalating and his deadline to open the Strait of

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<v Speaker 2>Hormuz is looming. I speak with Bloomberg White House correspondent

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<v Speaker 2>Courtney Subramanian to unpack the state of negotiations between the

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<v Speaker 2>US and Iran and what comes next.

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<v Speaker 3>This all, to me suggested that maybe the administration is

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<v Speaker 3>not as close to an exit as the President has projected.

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<v Speaker 3>Over the past couple weeks.

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<v Speaker 2>In a post over the weekend and in a press

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<v Speaker 2>conference today, Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike civilian infrastructure, targets, bridges,

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<v Speaker 2>power plants. Courtney, can you put into context for us

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<v Speaker 2>just how extreme these threats are.

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<v Speaker 3>He specifically laid out a scenario in which the US

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<v Speaker 3>could bomb civilian bridges, energy infrastructure and said that these

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<v Speaker 3>bridges would be burning. It would be gone by twelve

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<v Speaker 3>o'clock tomorrow if Roan was not willing to meet the

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<v Speaker 3>deadline that he set and meet the ultimatum of reopening

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<v Speaker 3>the Strait of Hormuz, And of course that raises a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of alarm bells around the world. That would be

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<v Speaker 3>a violation of the Geneva Conventions and would be considered

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<v Speaker 3>a war crime. Israel in particular, I think is a

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<v Speaker 3>big question mark over this supposed threat, especially because they

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<v Speaker 3>have said recently that a part of their objectives was

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<v Speaker 3>that they wanted to leave a functioning state for the

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<v Speaker 3>opposition to take control of. They wanted to give the

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<v Speaker 3>Iranian people a reason to fight for the state and

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<v Speaker 3>push back against the power structures, and so going after

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<v Speaker 3>these civilian targets would be a misalignment with the Israeli objectives,

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<v Speaker 3>which the US has said they are in complete coordination

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<v Speaker 3>and an alignment with Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>On does this potential for US escalation open the door

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<v Speaker 2>to a new level of response from Iran? What can

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<v Speaker 2>you expect Iran to do if the US targets civilian

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<v Speaker 2>infrastructure or even threatens to do so.

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<v Speaker 3>They have said they would retaliate. And if you look

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<v Speaker 3>at some of the reasoning and the rationale from the

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<v Speaker 3>US as to why they launched this military campaign, they

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<v Speaker 3>paint Iran as the world's number one terrorists, a terrorist

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<v Speaker 3>state that has constantly targeted the US over the last

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<v Speaker 3>few decades. And I think that especially given their objectives,

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<v Speaker 3>which is survival, at this point, we should expect to

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<v Speaker 3>see some sort of retaliation, whether that is on US

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<v Speaker 3>soil or an US military basis in the Gulf region.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the key leverage points in this war for Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>and one of the key priorities for the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 2>right now, is the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has been

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<v Speaker 2>trying to get around to open the Strait of Hormuz,

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<v Speaker 2>issuing a series of ultimatums to the country over the

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<v Speaker 2>past few weeks. What message does that shifting timeline send Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, the President has said that he thinks talks

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<v Speaker 3>are going well in a series of interviews he's done

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<v Speaker 3>with reporters of the last twenty four hours. The idea

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<v Speaker 3>is to buy more time because he has escalated these

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<v Speaker 3>threats so much. The problem is the Strait of Hormuz

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<v Speaker 3>is such a point of contention, particularly because Iran sees

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<v Speaker 3>that as one of their biggest leverage points in these negotiations,

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<v Speaker 3>in this entire war. This is something they economically are

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<v Speaker 3>benefiting from, of course, but also it's allowing them to

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<v Speaker 3>drag on this conflict. The US, of course, would like

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<v Speaker 3>to see Iran give up control of that strait in

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<v Speaker 3>order to move forward, and I think they are just

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<v Speaker 3>at exact opposite ends of agreement on who should control

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<v Speaker 3>the Strait of Hormuz.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's press conference really brought that into relief. Trump said

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<v Speaker 2>that the spoils quote unquote should go to the victor

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<v Speaker 2>in Iran, which he said was the US, and that

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<v Speaker 2>instead of Iran charging ships to transit the straight, it

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<v Speaker 2>should be the US collecting the tolls.

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<v Speaker 1>I'd rather do that than let them have them run.

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<v Speaker 1>Why shouldn't we with a winner.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you solve that disagreement over who should collect

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<v Speaker 2>tolls of the straight of hormus in a day?

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think you can. The problem here is Trump

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<v Speaker 3>views everything through the Venezuela model, which he again referenced today. Right,

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<v Speaker 3>this extraction of Nicholas Maduro and then going in and

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<v Speaker 3>working with the remaining government and definitely taking over the

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<v Speaker 3>oil industry is not really a model that you can

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<v Speaker 3>replicate in a country as big as Iran, in a

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<v Speaker 3>region where this industry is so vital and critical to

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<v Speaker 3>the countries around it and involved so many players, regional players.

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<v Speaker 3>But the president doesn't seem to see that, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think it's going to take more than a day to

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<v Speaker 3>find common ground between these two sides.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, let's talk about the state of negotiations right now,

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<v Speaker 2>because Axios had reported that there were discussions about reaching

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<v Speaker 2>a potential forty five day ceasefire between the US and Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>But this morning, Iranian state media reported that Iran rejected

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<v Speaker 2>a US proposal for a temporary ceasefire and that it

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<v Speaker 2>instead wants a permanent end to the war. Where does

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<v Speaker 2>this all leave negotiations and talks with just a day

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<v Speaker 2>on the clock before the president's latest deadline.

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<v Speaker 3>White House officials have said this is one of the

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<v Speaker 3>me any ideas on the table that the President is considering,

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<v Speaker 3>which I think is probably true for any set of

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<v Speaker 3>negotiations this administration has been through with regard to other conflicts.

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<v Speaker 3>But we also have heard from Iran in different points

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<v Speaker 3>in this conflict where they have refuted some of the

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<v Speaker 3>messaging we've seen out of Washington. I mean, these conversations

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<v Speaker 3>are happening, you know, behind the scenes, through text messages,

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<v Speaker 3>through phone calls. So I think it is hard to

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<v Speaker 3>take either side at face value at this point until

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<v Speaker 3>we get to this you know, deadline and see what

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<v Speaker 3>the US is willing to do, you know, whether or

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<v Speaker 3>not Tehran is meeting their ultimatum at this.

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<v Speaker 2>Point, right Iran has seen Trump pull out of the

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<v Speaker 2>Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear deal that was

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<v Speaker 2>worked out between the US and Iran. This year, the

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<v Speaker 2>US and Israel attacked Iran while negotiations with the country

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<v Speaker 2>appeared to be ongoing. So I'm wondering, from Iran's perspective,

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<v Speaker 2>how does that context weigh on them as these talks

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<v Speaker 2>move forward. Why believe that this round of negotiations will

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<v Speaker 2>be different.

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<v Speaker 3>The US has used this playbook before. You know, we've

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<v Speaker 3>seen them talk about negotiation, characterize it or mischaracterize it

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<v Speaker 3>as going well, and then you know, going into an

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<v Speaker 3>action that the administration wants to take. Anyway, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>from Tehran's perspective, this could all be a replay of

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<v Speaker 3>what happened last June when the US decided to attack

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<v Speaker 3>Iran's nuclear facilities. There's just been an erosion of trust

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<v Speaker 3>with the president's negotiators, Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner, his

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<v Speaker 3>son in law, which is probably why we've seen Vice

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<v Speaker 3>President jd Vance enter the negotiations. He's also been speaking

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<v Speaker 3>on behalf of the administration and taking a much more

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<v Speaker 3>prominent role this time.

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<v Speaker 2>And Courtney, where is Israel in all this? Can any

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<v Speaker 2>deal be meaningful for i Ran without Israel's cooperation or

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<v Speaker 2>sign on.

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<v Speaker 3>That's one of the biggest questions to me. I think

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<v Speaker 3>they're one of the biggest puzzle pieces in putting this

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<v Speaker 3>all together. As you mentioned, any deal that the President's

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<v Speaker 3>negotiators workout needs to be coordinated with Israel, who has,

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<v Speaker 3>by the way, continued attacking even into this week, even

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<v Speaker 3>into today. But he does have a very close relationship

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<v Speaker 3>with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyaho and we did hear from

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<v Speaker 3>Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday that he was in contact. He

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<v Speaker 3>had called the President to congratulate him on the search

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<v Speaker 3>and rescue efforts of the two fighter pilots whose jet

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<v Speaker 3>was downed in Iran. Netanya who has been very clear

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<v Speaker 3>that he has an open and frank relationship with President Trump,

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<v Speaker 3>and Key has talked about the military objectives for Israel.

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<v Speaker 3>I think they have been mostly aligned with the US

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<v Speaker 3>on guaranteeing that Iran could never receive a nuclear weapon,

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<v Speaker 3>that they want to cease their missile program. But again

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<v Speaker 3>these are huge points of contention that Tehran has not

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<v Speaker 3>come close to agreeing to. So where the status of

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<v Speaker 3>these negotiations are at is still a question to be answered.

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<v Speaker 2>What about other Gulf states? What kind of guarantees would

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<v Speaker 2>they want out of a potential ceasefire deal or a

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<v Speaker 2>permanent end to the war, and do they have a

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<v Speaker 2>seat at the negotiating table.

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<v Speaker 3>We've seen the Golf States being pushed closer to the

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<v Speaker 3>US mostly because they don't have an option. They are

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<v Speaker 3>probably pretty desperate for an off ramp as well, especially

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<v Speaker 3>with the closing of the strait and some of the

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<v Speaker 3>economic ramifications we've seen. But also, you know, even the

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<v Speaker 3>attacks from Tehran on the region and on these countries.

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<v Speaker 3>I think they are all pushing for some sort of

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<v Speaker 3>last ditch effort to achieve a ceasefire in these final

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<v Speaker 3>hours of the president's deadline. But the question is, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>whether they will be successful in convincing the President to

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<v Speaker 3>find some common ground.

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<v Speaker 2>Much of President Trump's Monday press conference was devoted to

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<v Speaker 2>celebrating the success of a US mission to rescue the

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<v Speaker 2>two airmen whose jet was shot down last week in Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the largest, most complex, most harrowing combat searches.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess you would call it a search and rescue mission.

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<v Speaker 2>What is this episode? The shooting down of the jet

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<v Speaker 2>in the first place, and the rescue mission tell us

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<v Speaker 2>about how the US's military operations are going and Iran's

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<v Speaker 2>military capabilities.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, the US sees this search and rescue effort

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<v Speaker 3>and the successful rescue of these two pilots as an

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<v Speaker 3>affirmation of US forces and the military campaign, and Iran

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<v Speaker 3>sees the downing of a US jet as a success

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<v Speaker 3>as well. It's a question of survival. And you know,

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<v Speaker 3>as much as the President said they have obliterated their navy,

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<v Speaker 3>their air force, Iran still has the capabilities to put

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<v Speaker 3>up a fight, and I think that is one of

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<v Speaker 3>the central problems with finding an off ramp here. So

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<v Speaker 3>it's given both sides a reason to keep going and

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<v Speaker 3>no reason to find a way out.

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<v Speaker 2>It all is a reminder that Trump campaigned on getting

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<v Speaker 2>out of forever wars. So I'm wondering how this latest

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<v Speaker 2>chapter in the Iran War war, more than a month in,

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<v Speaker 2>is playing with Trump's base.

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<v Speaker 3>Polling has told us that a lot of the President's supporters,

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<v Speaker 3>his core based supporters, are with him, which is something

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen throughout his first term and second. But there

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<v Speaker 3>is a real mismatch with what the President promised coming

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<v Speaker 3>into office, coming into politics, right, This was a man

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<v Speaker 3>who very much said was against foreign intervention, was against

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<v Speaker 3>dragging the US into new conflicts. But a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>Republicans within his party have really questioned his decisions on

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<v Speaker 3>dragging this war out, especially as we get closer to November.

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<v Speaker 3>A lot of previous elections have told us that most

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<v Speaker 3>US voters lock in their opinions by early summer ahead

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<v Speaker 3>of midterm elections. That's getting pretty close. And we still

0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:05.640
<v Speaker 3>have no idea about whether the US will hold to

0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:09.320
<v Speaker 3>these timelines that the President has promised, particularly because he

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<v Speaker 3>keeps extending them. So, you know, if gasoline prices are

0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:19.040
<v Speaker 3>still increasing, if the President is talking about the war

0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:23.080
<v Speaker 3>in Iran instead of talking about tackling the housing crisis

0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:27.640
<v Speaker 3>or talking about his economic agenda, then I think there's

0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:32.240
<v Speaker 3>going to be real questions about whether his party is

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<v Speaker 3>going to be successful in November.

0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:37.720
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the base seems to be loyal to Trump even

0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:42.360
<v Speaker 2>through the Iran war, but the majority of Americans, according

0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:45.120
<v Speaker 2>to CNN and Fox polling, does approve of this war.

0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:50.720
<v Speaker 3>Republicans are extremely anxious about this war, especially as it

0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:56.000
<v Speaker 3>drags on the deadline of how long he said this

0:15:56.040 --> 0:16:00.400
<v Speaker 3>would the Americans would have to endure. The economic implications

0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:05.640
<v Speaker 3>of this war are fast approaching, and oil prices are

0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:10.480
<v Speaker 3>not coming down. You know, we have reported that the

0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:17.240
<v Speaker 3>administration is even looking into modeling if oil prices jumped

0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.000
<v Speaker 3>to one hundred and fifty to two hundred dollars a barrel.

0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:24.960
<v Speaker 3>That does not line up with the economic message that

0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:29.040
<v Speaker 3>Republicans are pushing ahead of November.

0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:32.000
<v Speaker 2>And the Trump administration has asked for one point five

0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:35.920
<v Speaker 2>trillion dollars for the Department of Defense in its next budget,

0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:37.800
<v Speaker 2>which would be a record amount of spending. So that

0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:40.080
<v Speaker 2>just speaks to the amount of resources that the Trump

0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:42.920
<v Speaker 2>administration wants to expend on this.

0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:48.520
<v Speaker 3>War, especially when they're cutting funding for domestic programs and

0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:52.280
<v Speaker 3>some of the agencies like housing. Right, that is a

0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:55.120
<v Speaker 3>huge issue and will be a huge issue in November.

0:16:56.760 --> 0:17:00.240
<v Speaker 2>Lastly, Courtney, I want to ask about support for this

0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:04.040
<v Speaker 2>war on the international stage. Trump has asked the US's

0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:07.560
<v Speaker 2>NATO allies to get involved in the Iran war. They haven't.

0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:10.920
<v Speaker 2>He's threatened to withdraw from the alliance. He's criticized the alliance.

0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:14.600
<v Speaker 2>Trump is scheduled to meet with NATO's Secretary General Mark

0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:19.240
<v Speaker 2>Rutta later this week, and Trump often talks about who

0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.600
<v Speaker 2>has the best cards to play. I'm wondering who holds

0:17:22.640 --> 0:17:23.359
<v Speaker 2>the cards here.

0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:28.000
<v Speaker 3>I mean, ultimately the president does. I think he's proven

0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:32.399
<v Speaker 3>through and through at several points when he's gone after

0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:37.480
<v Speaker 3>our NATO allies and questioned their role and their commitments.

0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:41.840
<v Speaker 3>You know that they always end up coming to Washington

0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:45.400
<v Speaker 3>to try and convince him of the importance of the

0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:49.760
<v Speaker 3>NATO alliance and why it's critical that the US stay

0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:53.200
<v Speaker 3>in this alliance, which is why I think we are

0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:58.159
<v Speaker 3>seeing Ruta come to the US this week to try

0:17:58.720 --> 0:18:02.879
<v Speaker 3>and again, you know, educate the President, charm him as

0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:06.240
<v Speaker 3>he has in the past, and convince him that even

0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:11.680
<v Speaker 3>though there is great trepidation about the size and scope

0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:16.800
<v Speaker 3>of this campaign and involvement, that that does not detract

0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:23.240
<v Speaker 3>from the US ally's commitment to the US. But I

0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:27.160
<v Speaker 3>think Iran has been almost a bridge too far for

0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:30.800
<v Speaker 3>many of these countries who are not willing to follow

0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:35.280
<v Speaker 3>the President down this path, especially as there is no

0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:39.680
<v Speaker 3>clear end in sight at this point, despite these negotiations,

0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:42.760
<v Speaker 3>which have dragged on frankly for weeks.

0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:51.840
<v Speaker 2>This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.

0:18:52.600 --> 0:18:55.160
<v Speaker 2>To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access

0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.920
<v Speaker 2>to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg

0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:02.640
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0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:05.240
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0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:08.879
<v Speaker 2>listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. Thanks

0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:10.680
<v Speaker 2>for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.