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Speaker 2: Joining you so.
Speaker 3: From Minnesota, Brian Belski with this Rudia Mellis this morning.
Speaker 3: What was it like Brian Belski for The Globe and
Speaker 3: Mail to say you're a Canadian.
Speaker 4: Well, thank you so much.
Speaker 5: It's always great to be honest with you guys. And
Speaker 5: by the way, Lisa Miteo is talking about what about Me?
Speaker 5: In terms of the AI, there's a fantastic song from
Speaker 5: nineteen eighty four sung by Moving Pictures. It's called what
Speaker 5: About Me? And you could play that with respect to AI.
Speaker 5: But I think for years, you know, our mo for
Speaker 5: an amazing thirteen years and seven months, and I think
Speaker 5: that it was a perfect fit for us when we
Speaker 5: left Oppenheimer, because we could combine the culture of Minnesota
Speaker 5: here with what we brought to Oppenheimer. I'm sorry to
Speaker 5: BEMO with respect to our institutional focus in the US
Speaker 5: and working in New York for over twenty years, so
Speaker 5: a lot of people thought we.
Speaker 4: Were from Canada, and I'm not going to lie. I
Speaker 4: played it up.
Speaker 5: When I was seeing to seeing Canadian clients and went
Speaker 5: into the Minnesota I accent, you know a little bit.
Speaker 4: So you know, we had a wonderful experience at BIMO.
Speaker 5: We still hope that we may be partners going forward,
Speaker 5: and it was an amazing experience.
Speaker 3: What happens after we get the economic data we're not
Speaker 3: getting now, what does stocks do?
Speaker 5: It's a wonderful question because I think we're in kind
Speaker 5: of this conundrum right now. The markets actually have held
Speaker 5: in there a little bit better than we thought. We
Speaker 5: thought we'd actually get a little bit more of a
Speaker 5: pullback here. Maybe one of the problems with the market
Speaker 5: is there are too many bulls here at the end
Speaker 5: of this big bull site, or at least the end
Speaker 5: of the big move this year. And we really believe
Speaker 5: that Macro has really done a disservice to investors really
Speaker 5: since two thousand and nine.
Speaker 4: Now, your question is what happens when we get a
Speaker 4: flood of all this.
Speaker 5: Data again, it could be information overload, and at the
Speaker 5: end of the day, we're kind of looking forward with
Speaker 5: respect to what the oh, what's going to be in
Speaker 5: terms of these job losses that we keep hearing about
Speaker 5: and what the FED is going to do in twenty
Speaker 5: twenty six. I think this backup and yields to five
Speaker 5: percent clearly has put a dampening on the broadening out
Speaker 5: trade on a near term basis. We still think longer
Speaker 5: term rates a year from now will be lower, and
Speaker 5: that will actually be very very good for the broadening
Speaker 5: out trade into small.
Speaker 4: Gap into value, into things like dividend growth as well.
Speaker 6: Brian, for those that are concerned about valuation in this market,
Speaker 6: I think they may be focus in particular on kind
Speaker 6: of this AI trade and kind of the has the
Speaker 6: AI phenomenon across the economy, not just stack Has that
Speaker 6: created a bubble in the market?
Speaker 7: How do you kind of address that issue?
Speaker 5: Well, nice to see if Paul and waves you the
Speaker 5: other day when I was in studios.
Speaker 4: It's kind of fun.
Speaker 5: Anyway, I think that bubble, I know, I'm sorry that
Speaker 5: bubble is one of the most overused phrases in investments
Speaker 5: and in finance, just like dysfunctional family in most families.
Speaker 5: We'll find that out in about three weeks from today
Speaker 5: or tomorrow in terms of Thanksgiving.
Speaker 4: But anyway, I would say, I would say this that
Speaker 4: even when you're leading.
Speaker 5: Up to this interview, you talked about Qualcom, and Qualcom
Speaker 5: is a great company, but you see how Qualcom's running
Speaker 5: their business relative to some of their chip makers. We're
Speaker 5: seeing massive differentiation across companies. Back in the nineties, ninety nine,
Speaker 5: two thousand, we didn't have a lot of differentiation. All
Speaker 5: stocks that had anything to do with dot Com we
Speaker 5: used to call them dot bomb. After that, we're all
Speaker 5: kind of moving together. You're starting to see massive fundamental
Speaker 5: and performance deviations with respect to the diffusion and how
Speaker 5: these companies are. And so I don't think all companies
Speaker 5: are created equal in the AI space, and I think
Speaker 5: saying bubble is just a scare tactic.
Speaker 4: I would say also this, Paul, I.
Speaker 5: Really want you to think about the late nineties and
Speaker 5: how much everyone was making money. And what I mean
Speaker 5: by everybody is you had the big investment banks, had
Speaker 5: these these amazing and these huge IPOs, these huge secondary offerings,
Speaker 5: and most importantly, these business combinations.
Speaker 4: A lot of mergers and acquisitions.
Speaker 5: That were done with stock, where companies were buying other
Speaker 5: companies with stock that they had no value because the
Speaker 5: stock went up and they were taking that appreciation of
Speaker 5: the stock to buy another company. We're not seeing any
Speaker 5: of that yet, So when we see more of that frothy, frivolous.
Speaker 4: Type of activity, we would become a little bit more worried.
Speaker 6: On the AI side, paper buying real companies, think AOL
Speaker 6: buying time Warner.
Speaker 7: That was the trade of that decade.
Speaker 6: Brian talk to us about earning share where you know,
Speaker 6: kind of as seventy percent away through earnings. Seems to
Speaker 6: be pretty solid earning spree for Q three after a
Speaker 6: good Q two as well. Is this enough to support
Speaker 6: this market?
Speaker 5: We think it is, and that's what kept us bullish
Speaker 5: after the April time period where we saw the out
Speaker 5: year period with respect to twenty twenty six versus twenty
Speaker 5: twenty five earnings revisions.
Speaker 4: Really begin to bottom on.
Speaker 5: In turn, we think that's really what's driven a big
Speaker 5: part of this. We also think too that if you
Speaker 5: take a look at the equal weight to S and
Speaker 5: P five hundred, those companies actually from an earning's revision
Speaker 5: basis are starting to see a lot stronger recovery.
Speaker 4: Lastly, if you take a look at the operating performance.
Speaker 5: Of companies, whether or it's cash flow or return on
Speaker 5: equity or return on assets. We're starting to see from
Speaker 5: a sector basis, the majority of the most cyclical areas
Speaker 5: begin to turn and out.
Speaker 4: What makes this field really really good? About twenty six
Speaker 4: and twenty seven.
Speaker 3: Brian Belski with iss samilis here this morning across the
Speaker 3: nation on YouTube. Thank you worldwide for your support on YouTube.
Speaker 3: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. We're waiting on Kathy Wood here
Speaker 3: in about five minutes. Going from Brian Bellskin to Kathy Wood.
Speaker 3: A good thing, Brian, I got to squeeze two things
Speaker 3: in here. All of a sudden, we have tech issuing
Speaker 3: bonds to pay for AI. Of course you study you
Speaker 3: should have seen him. He got an A plus at
Speaker 3: USC in Medigliani and Miller's theorem.
Speaker 2: Does it matter that big tech issues debt?
Speaker 8: Brian Belski, Well, if you take a look at debt
Speaker 8: equity in the tech sector, but then also free cash flow,
Speaker 8: it's off the charts in terms of free cash flow
Speaker 8: and debt equity is very very low.
Speaker 5: So with respect to where where they are in the cycle,
Speaker 5: it's not surprising that they're out in the debt markets
Speaker 5: doing this, especially given the fact that capex is that
Speaker 5: now the bigger question Tom is going to be in
Speaker 5: two years from now, do we see a massive reversal
Speaker 5: in Capex?
Speaker 9: And I don't mean to be Johnny.
Speaker 5: Rainklau, but at some point we're going to have our recession.
Speaker 5: So are we going to have a Capex recession in
Speaker 5: a couple of years?
Speaker 4: Again, I don't know that, but when you have.
Speaker 5: This big ramp up in capex funded by something else
Speaker 5: that is not normally funded, I think that could ultimately
Speaker 5: lead some pullback in the market.
Speaker 3: Okay, this is a classy way Belskin and I've been
Speaker 3: doing this for years and he's a class ack.
Speaker 2: Folks.
Speaker 3: As you know, Brian your opiniata and Kathy Wood is
Speaker 3: a greater piniata than Brian Belski. I want you to
Speaker 3: explain the efficacy of a tech only and a high
Speaker 3: beta tech only trade if your time frame is longer
Speaker 3: than a year. Right now to Keathy Wood's on fire,
Speaker 3: but over a longer time frame, her math, her performance
Speaker 3: goes way down. You can't have it both ways, Ken.
Speaker 4: You you can't. And we have a tremendous amount of
Speaker 4: respect for Kathy. We've known her for a long time.
Speaker 5: I remember going to her offices when I was a
Speaker 5: strategist at Merrillnch even before that, Piper, Jeffrey and so
Speaker 5: I think that the holding period for stocks is what
Speaker 5: kind of what in the average of those of those
Speaker 5: performances really really hurt that longer term side of things.
Speaker 2: But remember you go back to the.
Speaker 5: Old notion of Stocksviville long run and buying more on
Speaker 5: dips and things like that. That's why we're big believers
Speaker 5: of having different strategies and also running portfolios with respect
Speaker 5: to value, a small mid gap and dividing growth to
Speaker 5: balance out the tech positions.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Brian, one final thing. I mean, Michael Barr calls
Speaker 3: in sick today. Do you see that, like three am?
Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3: You know, he calls it in a bapslager and he's sick,
Speaker 3: and I called it missus. Barry said he's not sick.
Speaker 3: The Vikings beat the Lions. Okay, Ryan, help me here,
Speaker 3: JJ McCarthy, Is he really for real or was that
Speaker 3: a one off what he did to the Detroit Lions?
Speaker 5: Well? Quite frankly, he's got a big test this weekend too,
Speaker 5: with the Ravens. The Ravens haven't been playing great this year,
Speaker 5: but they do have that traditional strong defense.
Speaker 4: In our view, being in.
Speaker 5: Minnesota here, we don't believe anybody on the sports side
Speaker 5: until they put a string of games together. And JJ
Speaker 5: unfortunately hasn't been able to put a couple of games
Speaker 5: together number one because he's been hurt and number two
Speaker 5: because you know, he hasn't really been able to do that.
Speaker 4: So I think this is a big test for him.
Speaker 5: We're hopeful and quite frankly prayerful that we finally have
Speaker 5: a franchise quarterback, but time will tell.
Speaker 3: We will see on time will tell. With Brian Belski,
Speaker 3: he sets up Qumillus and will of course be calling
Speaker 3: on all of the institutional success he's had with this
Speaker 3: great bull market. He is one who has absolutely nailed
Speaker 3: Paul participate. Brian Belski is with Humillis. Thank you so much, Brian,
Speaker 3: and best of luck from all of Team Surveillance.
Speaker 2: Stay with us.
Speaker 10: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 3: We have the right kind studio and now want to
Speaker 3: treat usually a Queen Victoria Streeter and a continent somewhere.
Speaker 2: Older Schweting is with us right.
Speaker 3: Now, truly expert on all of this at baron Berg Bank.
Speaker 3: Let me start with the same question I had for
Speaker 3: mister Howard at B and P Perry back. Should the
Speaker 3: Fed is Central Bank, the US Central Bank enjoy the
Speaker 3: descent that we see at the Bank of England? Do
Speaker 3: you embrace A five to four vote is a good
Speaker 3: talking point?
Speaker 11: I would say it's a good talking point, But descent
Speaker 11: on its own is not always good. It depends on
Speaker 11: what the arguments are. And in a way, this descent
Speaker 11: shows that we are in rather uncertain times. The Bank
Speaker 11: of England really is having a quandary. Inflation very high,
Speaker 11: but the economy lightly is low.
Speaker 3: So what do they do in the reset to a
Speaker 3: higher inflation rank going from one point ninety two percent
Speaker 3: out to two point x Dare I say three percent?
Speaker 2: There's a culture for.
Speaker 3: That in America, maybe there's a culture for that in
Speaker 3: pre Brexit England, Germany to Pokote, the economists Bart Simpson, Yep,
Speaker 3: they're gonna have a cow. How is Germany going to
Speaker 3: react to a new higher inflation regime?
Speaker 11: Well, Germany will probably be part of the higher inflation
Speaker 11: regime for a simple reason. We have labor shortages coming
Speaker 11: across most of the advanced world, especially in the US
Speaker 11: thanks to well net immigration dropping to zero over here
Speaker 11: and in Europe demography plays a role labor shortages. Main
Speaker 11: wages in the future, not necessarily this year or next year,
Speaker 11: but longer run will rise faster than in the past.
Speaker 11: Artificial intelligence helps but won't fully offset that.
Speaker 9: Get used to more wage.
Speaker 11: Inflation in the long run, and central banks needing to
Speaker 11: keep rates at a level that's above what we usually
Speaker 11: had for the last twenty years.
Speaker 6: You know, most of us grew up with globalization and
Speaker 6: arguably the net positive effects of globalization.
Speaker 7: Is globalization dead or on the back burner?
Speaker 6: How do you think about globalzation and the economic effects
Speaker 6: of globalization over the last forty fifty years?
Speaker 7: Where are we on that story?
Speaker 12: Now?
Speaker 9: The big wave of globalization is over.
Speaker 11: China has fully integrated into the world economy, and now
Speaker 11: it's actually that China is sort of decoupling here, and
Speaker 11: they're a bit from the global economy, and we are
Speaker 11: no longer in a phase of globalization. We are in
Speaker 11: a phase of regionalization. Trade relations and financial relations between friends,
Speaker 11: between partners, between close neighbors are likely to increase significantly.
Speaker 11: We see the trend clearly in Europe where we see
Speaker 11: our exports to the US and China drop, what where
Speaker 11: we see our internal trade increase. So French choring, French
Speaker 11: trading would say, is the new is the new trend?
Speaker 11: And then we'll see what happens with AI with So.
Speaker 6: The Germany district are getting closer together, well, they've been
Speaker 6: pretty pretty close for a long time already, but it's
Speaker 6: the Germans and the pone size one example, are getting
Speaker 6: closer together.
Speaker 11: For instan it's Germany now exports more to Poland than
Speaker 11: it does to China.
Speaker 9: This is one of the big changes in the world.
Speaker 2: This is really This came up a couple of days ago.
Speaker 3: Holger schmeting with US folks to advance the conversation, and
Speaker 3: we welcome all of you acrassination on YouTube. Thank you
Speaker 3: so much for this experiment. A lot of conversation in
Speaker 3: Montreal about the YouTube talked about it's another distribution of
Speaker 3: what we're doing, particularly abroad, and thank you so much.
Speaker 2: The October numbers at Google gave us were just really
Speaker 2: really outstanding futures of ten here, the VIC seventeen point
Speaker 2: eight three and the broader economy globally in America. Holger
Speaker 2: schmeeting with this a Behrenberg Bank. I look Holger at
Speaker 2: where we are and to me, it still comes down
Speaker 2: to business investment, the whole AI distraction and nominal GDP.
Speaker 2: What's your frame out of nominal GDP out two years.
Speaker 11: Well, for the US, nominal DDP growth is going to
Speaker 11: slow somewhat, largely because the real economy is slow. That
Speaker 11: is largely due to Trump policies. Tariffs are ultimately bad,
Speaker 11: even if they'll lead to an initial search of inward investment.
Speaker 11: And the AI boom is great, but you probably cannot
Speaker 11: maintain the growth rates of AI related investment. And as
Speaker 11: to inflation in the US, it will recede a bit
Speaker 11: thanks to the help of shelter for say the next
Speaker 11: twelve month, but it will stay elevated point five percent
Speaker 11: at higher and longer term.
Speaker 9: Labor shortage is biting the.
Speaker 11: US inflation rate is set will likely settle at two
Speaker 11: point five to three percent, at one point five percent
Speaker 11: trend growth to that and your nominal GDP well four
Speaker 11: and a bit.
Speaker 6: We saw Germany and some other European countries step up
Speaker 6: their spending earlier this year in terms of infrastructure defense.
Speaker 6: Give us an update on that. Is that actually happening.
Speaker 6: Are the dollars being spent or the euros being spent?
Speaker 11: Well, what you saw earlier this year is actually in
Speaker 11: an announcement that Germany will step up in spending. Okay,
Speaker 11: we have seen it for defense spending since twenty three
Speaker 11: that is being stepped up, But the big investment infrastructure
Speaker 11: boost is only in the making. Germany passed its budget
Speaker 11: for this year in September, so the orders are now
Speaker 11: being placed, probably for the actual investment taking place next year,
Speaker 11: which is one reason why next year Germany will be
Speaker 11: doing a little better on its economy than it's been
Speaker 11: doing for the last four years.
Speaker 2: Can I do an audible sure? Okay.
Speaker 3: One of the big themes in Montreal was like where
Speaker 3: we're going with climate change? Of David Gura down in
Speaker 3: Brazil at COP thirty and all that. I read an
Speaker 3: article about Portia which I think is owned by VWS Buzzing,
Speaker 3: and they're flat on their back because they bet on
Speaker 3: electric and they're turning away from that. You're one of
Speaker 3: the best I know on this holder. Where is green?
Speaker 3: Where is climate change? Where is the liberality of those politics?
Speaker 3: I'm a continent in Britain over the next five years.
Speaker 3: Is there a shift going on?
Speaker 11: There is a shift going on, not really away from greenery.
Speaker 11: We in Europe are fully aware that climate change is
Speaker 11: a threat, but we're also aware that we have to
Speaker 11: be pragmatic about how we reduce our CO two emissions.
Speaker 11: So we are heading for more flexible, more pragmatic approaches,
Speaker 11: and so some companies that tried in a way to
Speaker 11: front run the transition to electric vehicles are now seeing okay,
Speaker 11: we're not going that fast, but it's the pace is
Speaker 11: slowing down, but the transition towards greener outlook, towards greener
Speaker 11: policies that is ongoing in Europe.
Speaker 2: The most visious notes I ever got was from a
Speaker 2: fan l from New Jersey. Oh yeah, Elle emails in.
Speaker 3: He goes It's not the Detroit Auto Show, it's the
Speaker 3: North American International Auto Show. I'm at the North American
Speaker 3: International Auto Show Polgish meeting with the head of Mercedes,
Speaker 3: the guy with the mustache, and the answer is he goes,
Speaker 3: we're not going green line, that we're going to be hybrid.
Speaker 3: So in Germany there's this parsing between Mercedes, who've done
Speaker 3: it more intelligently than someone like Porsche. Is that is
Speaker 3: that accurate?
Speaker 11: Well, different companies have done it differently, and they need
Speaker 11: Some companies went probably a bit too far in trying
Speaker 11: to sort of front run the green but hybrid is
Speaker 11: sort of probably an intermediate stage. I would say we
Speaker 11: are ultimately going very much towards electro mobility, but the
Speaker 11: pace at which we are going and the transition being
Speaker 11: a bit more pragmatic, a bit more hybrid, that is
Speaker 11: kind of a change that's creeping in In response to well,
Speaker 11: it's it's not cheap to do the trend.
Speaker 3: Can I just make an observation for Augish meeting and
Speaker 3: all of the continent, it is so good that Lufthansa
Speaker 3: didn't get rid of the seven forty seven. One of
Speaker 3: the great things in New York City is a Loutanza
Speaker 3: seven forty.
Speaker 2: Seven j a Newerican JFK. Every day that's a great
Speaker 2: and beautiful they're way much. We should bring them back.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, we're definitely that's a streat point.
Speaker 3: Holger schmraining with us on this day of dissent at
Speaker 3: the Bank of England. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg
Speaker 3: Surveillance coming.
Speaker 10: Up after this.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty joining.
Speaker 3: Us now and really really looking for She's been so
Speaker 3: busy that we really had a challenge to get around
Speaker 3: now a generous amount of time was Shannon O'Neill's Senior
Speaker 3: Vice President Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations,
Speaker 3: Definitive on Latin America in the broader global economy. Shannon O'Neil,
Speaker 3: you've got though it's been way too long, by the way, Shannon,
Speaker 3: you've got this fabulous essay on supply lines. If you're
Speaker 3: to sit with President Trump and explain America's naivete about
Speaker 3: our supply lines, what would you say to the president.
Speaker 12: Well, thanks for having me, and there's so much to say,
Speaker 12: but I think, especially in this article, i'd narrow in
Speaker 12: on defense because that really is the issue and where
Speaker 12: there is reasons to intervene in the US economy to
Speaker 12: make sure that we're secure. And here the blanket TIFFs
Speaker 12: that we put in place, some of the other controls
Speaker 12: that we've had are making us less safe rather than more.
Speaker 12: And in part because the company is the primes, you know,
Speaker 12: those at our defense contractors is really hard to work
Speaker 12: in this environment. They have challenges now to their supply
Speaker 12: because tariffs on steel, aluminum, other things are increasing their costs,
Speaker 12: which is more expensive for our tax players and for
Speaker 12: these companies. But there's also challenges now for demand. These
Speaker 12: are specialized industries, and you know the way you get
Speaker 12: contracts is through treaties, through alliances. You don't sell an
Speaker 12: F thirty five to just anybody. And as we step
Speaker 12: back from these alliances with traditional allies, you know there's
Speaker 12: smaller markets out there from many of these companies.
Speaker 6: Shannon, does that open the way for China, Russia others
Speaker 6: to fill the void?
Speaker 12: It opens the way for those, but it also opens
Speaker 12: the way for other industries to grow around the world. Right,
Speaker 12: We've seen Germany talk about spending a trillion dollars over
Speaker 12: the next ten years, but a lot of that's for
Speaker 12: their own defense industry. And you know, traditionally allies like
Speaker 12: European Allies, Middle Eastern Allies, Asian Allies, Japan, South Koreina, like,
Speaker 12: they've bought a lot from our suppliers. Right, they haven't
Speaker 12: always had their own homegrown industries. And I think some
Speaker 12: of the geopolitical shifts and the worries about the trust
Speaker 12: in the United States and the breaking or the diminishing
Speaker 12: of alliances mean they are thinking that they need to
Speaker 12: go with their own. So there's going to be more
Speaker 12: competitors out there in the global marketplace, not just adversaries.
Speaker 6: Is there are some of these relationships that the US
Speaker 6: has built up maybe post World War Two?
Speaker 7: Have they been?
Speaker 6: How badly damaged have they been? They recoverable? Do you
Speaker 6: think in years ahead, if we have the will to
Speaker 6: do that, You.
Speaker 12: Know, they've been bent. I don't think they've been necessarily
Speaker 12: been broken. And you saw on President Trump's trip just
Speaker 12: to Asia, you know, a week plus ago, reaffirming some
Speaker 12: of these alliances with Australia, August some with you know,
Speaker 12: South Korea going to build nuclear submarines together in Philadelphia
Speaker 12: along with ships. So there's some repairing here, but a
Speaker 12: lot of this, you know, these alliances are based on
Speaker 12: mutual trust, and I think the volatility of US policy
Speaker 12: is bending that.
Speaker 3: Shannon on you with us with the CONSOL on foreign relations,
Speaker 3: we could have a two hour conversation. I could be like,
Speaker 3: you know, like I did the thing with the governor
Speaker 3: the other day of the FED. I mean, you know,
Speaker 3: we could get up on a stage and like go
Speaker 3: three hours and Venezuela, Shannon, you have followed like no
Speaker 3: one else I know in America, Maduro, in Venezuela, your
Speaker 3: thoughts on the present mystery of what the guns doing,
Speaker 3: your thoughts on the future of Venezuela.
Speaker 12: You know, I think the challenge with Venezuela is, you know,
Speaker 12: if the United States wanted to go in and replace Maduro,
Speaker 12: we could, But the question is what happens the day after? Right,
Speaker 12: This is a country that, over the last twenty five
Speaker 12: years has lost its democratic institutions. It's controlled by a
Speaker 12: kleptocratic even criminal regime, and it has lots of different
Speaker 12: militarized parts to it. It has a military, it has
Speaker 12: a secret police, it has local militias, it has remnants
Speaker 12: of Colombian gorilla groups, the FARK, the Ila, and these others.
Speaker 12: And so if the US ends up going there, you're
Speaker 12: going to get a place that is incredibly militarized, incredibly complicated,
Speaker 12: and very difficult to return to anything that resembles a democracy.
Speaker 12: So there's a bit of a break it. You boughtit here, well,
Speaker 12: I think.
Speaker 3: Cuba, And again you've been fabulous on this, and I
Speaker 3: think of the arching Monroe doctrine somehow coming over to
Speaker 3: some new Trump doctrine. But Shannon O'Neil, the structure of
Speaker 3: Venezuela culture, is it like Cuba where it's basically shattered,
Speaker 3: or is there a finance, an investment, a social system
Speaker 3: after Maduro that can move on.
Speaker 12: You know, lots of the civil society institutions have really
Speaker 12: been destroyed, and you know, eight million people have left
Speaker 12: the country and so lots of that has gone with them.
Speaker 12: Now there is a possibility they would come back. But
Speaker 12: as you look for analogies, I would look less at
Speaker 12: Panama or at Cuba. I would look more at Iraq,
Speaker 12: how do you know, rebuild a country and where you
Speaker 12: have lots of militarized people, what's the debatification, what's the
Speaker 12: de chavisation of Venezuela. Look like that would be the
Speaker 12: challenge for our next government.
Speaker 7: Shannon Is.
Speaker 6: I'm just trying to think of the role of you know,
Speaker 6: President Trump has focused on More America first, and that
Speaker 6: has economic ramifications, it has political ramifications, maybe even security ramifications.
Speaker 7: How do you think the rest of the world views
Speaker 7: the US these days?
Speaker 12: You know, as I look at the reactions of those
Speaker 12: last nine months, particularly in the economic space and the TIFFs. Yes,
Speaker 12: you see lots of you know, governments coming here trying
Speaker 12: to sign free trade agreements or frameworks with the United States.
Speaker 12: So we've seen that, but you know, these trade negotiators
Speaker 12: are going to all other capitals in the world, and
Speaker 12: I think what's really interesting here is the dynamism of
Speaker 12: free trade activity, not including the United States. You know,
Speaker 12: I think there's a good chance that the EU in
Speaker 12: South America will finally ratify an agreement between those two
Speaker 12: of free trade agreement's been twenty plus years in the making,
Speaker 12: partly because of Trump tariffs. You see the EU going
Speaker 12: to India, going to the UAE, going to Indonesia talking
Speaker 12: about joining the CPTPP. So you know, one of the
Speaker 12: biggest trade packs in the world. You see a lot
Speaker 12: of dynamism that isn't including the United States, and even
Speaker 12: just on the ground. In nine months, you see trade
Speaker 12: re routing. Right, global trade is up this year, but
Speaker 12: not in North America, not with Uniteds.
Speaker 3: I saw charge just in the last forty eight hours.
Speaker 3: Folks on I'm so sorry I can't cite it, but
Speaker 3: Shannon and done to that point. We all know when
Speaker 3: Africa slipped away and China bought resources in Africa. Are
Speaker 3: we at a point here where South America and Latin
Speaker 3: America slips away and China takes over those relationships and
Speaker 3: those trade trade dynamics.
Speaker 12: Now, I think there is still a desire in Latin
Speaker 12: America and the Western Hemisphere to trade with the United States. Right,
Speaker 12: the United States has been the biggest foreign direct investor,
Speaker 12: It's been one of the biggest trade partners. And what
Speaker 12: they trade with the United States is more complicated good,
Speaker 12: it's not just resources and you know, commodities going out
Speaker 12: to China, which has normally been the exports from Latin
Speaker 12: America to China. So there's a desire there, but there's
Speaker 12: a challenge as you start putting terras on, as you
Speaker 12: start putting other restrictions. And Latin America so far with
Speaker 12: Brazil as an exception, has seen lower rates on the
Speaker 12: sort of universal rates, but it still matters. And so
Speaker 12: you are seeing opening for China, for the EU, for
Speaker 12: others to come in.
Speaker 3: When's the next book, Shannon, We're waiting, when's the next book?
Speaker 2: Come on?
Speaker 12: We're gonna look at, you know, industrial strategy, industrial policy,
Speaker 12: because that's where the world's headed.
Speaker 2: Okay, on the supply lines.
Speaker 3: A brilliant article in Foreign Affairs, Shannon o'neilla, driving Force
Speaker 3: ayers the Greenberg.
Speaker 2: Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations. Stay with us.
Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarcklay, and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: What did I missed while I was away?
Speaker 3: The newspapers with Lisa much anything from the Montreal Gazette
Speaker 3: thing exactly.
Speaker 13: All right, so we want to start with AI because
Speaker 13: we hear so much about AI taking jobs, right, Okay,
Speaker 13: so now AI power users at work. They're making their
Speaker 13: coworkers look like slackers, and it's starting to cause this tension. Okay,
Speaker 13: all yeah, so this is in the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 13: So it's basically not you know, people who do machine
Speaker 13: learning and all. It's just people who have skills at
Speaker 13: using the AI tools that they have. And so it's
Speaker 13: causing this kind of tension because they're now you know,
Speaker 13: showing up the bosses, and then the other people are like, well,
Speaker 13: what about me?
Speaker 7: The case this is a generational thing because I feel
Speaker 7: like the younger function.
Speaker 12: Better, better at it.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I can see that. I can see that.
Speaker 13: But they're they're doing like they have their own personal branding,
Speaker 13: Like they have YouTube pages where they post their tips
Speaker 13: on how to do this. They go on you know, LinkedIn,
Speaker 13: and they post little articles on these tips on how
Speaker 13: to use the as.
Speaker 6: This is similar back into my day, if you were
Speaker 6: like a good spreadsheet person.
Speaker 7: Yeah, that like that was my generation was.
Speaker 3: The queen of Excel and so many people in the
Speaker 3: New York area lenor major shout out Courtney Donahoe.
Speaker 2: Yeah, is an act of God on an Excel spread.
Speaker 7: Wow, it's frightening.
Speaker 2: It's frightening.
Speaker 3: She looked at me once and goes, are you the
Speaker 3: worst Excel spreadsheet user in the world. It said, yes, dear,
Speaker 3: I am ye carrly Dyna. Now it's I agree, Like,
Speaker 3: AI is a huge deal.
Speaker 13: Yes, and it can help you rise up the ranks.
Speaker 13: And you know, because they're saying, like, the difference if
Speaker 13: a bot doesn't replace you a human who knows how
Speaker 13: to use it, it's.
Speaker 3: Oh, that's what that is. Spartan, how's having a meeting?
Speaker 3: Who was sparted that? They said, Hey, stupid, you're a bot.
Speaker 2: I didn't know what he meant.
Speaker 7: Now I got it, Okay, so we'll stick with AI.
Speaker 13: This is from the Washington Post about how the NFL
Speaker 13: is using AI to prevent injuries. Pretty interesting. So they're
Speaker 13: using this thing called Digital Athlete. It's this AI platform
Speaker 13: and helps them kind of figure out player performance. So
Speaker 13: it basically this database, right, thousands of players in there.
Speaker 13: Each one has this little avatar, but they can identify
Speaker 13: little changes in movement that can be a shina of
Speaker 13: fatigue or maybe show if someone's about to get hurt,
Speaker 13: So maybe a veteran skips out on the drills or
Speaker 13: maybe you know, then sits down on practice this day.
Speaker 12: Because they can predict that.
Speaker 13: You know what, they might get hurt, they continue using
Speaker 13: So this is something they're using. They're actually saying it's
Speaker 13: working because since they launched it back in twenty twenty three,
Speaker 13: practice related lower extremity strains have dropped about fourteen percent
Speaker 13: league wide.
Speaker 7: So they do different things.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they did that with me and Paul.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I keep us off the field's rocking it with
Speaker 3: Scarlet Food, you know, eleven twenty two and they get
Speaker 3: the software.
Speaker 7: Going exactly five hours of radio make a mistakes, get there.
Speaker 7: He's about to draw intelligence ten eight this morning. I
Speaker 7: like this next story here because I'm thinking of Scarlet
Speaker 7: and Matt.
Speaker 2: You scar the stories up front, but you see the stories.
Speaker 6: I know a person I know, I don't he's vip
Speaker 6: yep because so much for me more please this is why.
Speaker 13: Because yes, they live in Westchester, right and now more
Speaker 13: people coming back to work, so that means more gridlock,
Speaker 13: more people coming to the city, which means there is
Speaker 13: a new way to get into the city, and it
Speaker 13: is a twelve minute helicopter ride. Okay, it leaves, yes,
Speaker 13: it goes from Westchester and it goes back here. There's
Speaker 13: a place on thirtieth Street and twelfth Avenue that's Blade
Speaker 13: Lounge West, right near Hudson Yards. Or it drops it
Speaker 13: from Westchester Hudson Yards. It's Blade Air Mobility. It's part
Speaker 13: of Joby Aviation. They're starting at December first, and you
Speaker 13: can take it. It's going to cost you. So if
Speaker 13: you're wondering how much scar forty, Okay, there you go
Speaker 13: a single flight one hundred and twenty five dollars if
Speaker 13: you have their Blade Commuter pass. It's two hundred and
Speaker 13: twenty five dollars without one. So the cost for that pass,
Speaker 13: if you're wondering, it's two hundred and fifty for the week.
Speaker 13: You can do the thousand a month, or hey, just
Speaker 13: go for the ten thousand dollars for the unlimited ships
Speaker 13: for the year.
Speaker 7: All right, that's the way to go for Scarletton. What's
Speaker 7: the way to go?
Speaker 2: Lisa Mantiro the newspapers this morning, thank you so much
Speaker 2: for that.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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