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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining you so.

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Speaker 3: From Minnesota, Brian Belski with this Rudia Mellis this morning.

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Speaker 3: What was it like Brian Belski for The Globe and

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Speaker 3: Mail to say you're a Canadian.

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Speaker 4: Well, thank you so much.

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Speaker 5: It's always great to be honest with you guys. And

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Speaker 5: by the way, Lisa Miteo is talking about what about Me?

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Speaker 5: In terms of the AI, there's a fantastic song from

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Speaker 5: nineteen eighty four sung by Moving Pictures. It's called what

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Speaker 5: About Me? And you could play that with respect to AI.

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Speaker 5: But I think for years, you know, our mo for

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Speaker 5: an amazing thirteen years and seven months, and I think

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Speaker 5: that it was a perfect fit for us when we

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Speaker 5: left Oppenheimer, because we could combine the culture of Minnesota

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Speaker 5: here with what we brought to Oppenheimer. I'm sorry to

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Speaker 5: BEMO with respect to our institutional focus in the US

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Speaker 5: and working in New York for over twenty years, so

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Speaker 5: a lot of people thought we.

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Speaker 4: Were from Canada, and I'm not going to lie. I

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Speaker 4: played it up.

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Speaker 5: When I was seeing to seeing Canadian clients and went

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Speaker 5: into the Minnesota I accent, you know a little bit.

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Speaker 4: So you know, we had a wonderful experience at BIMO.

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Speaker 5: We still hope that we may be partners going forward,

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Speaker 5: and it was an amazing experience.

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Speaker 3: What happens after we get the economic data we're not

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Speaker 3: getting now, what does stocks do?

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Speaker 5: It's a wonderful question because I think we're in kind

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Speaker 5: of this conundrum right now. The markets actually have held

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Speaker 5: in there a little bit better than we thought. We

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Speaker 5: thought we'd actually get a little bit more of a

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Speaker 5: pullback here. Maybe one of the problems with the market

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Speaker 5: is there are too many bulls here at the end

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Speaker 5: of this big bull site, or at least the end

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Speaker 5: of the big move this year. And we really believe

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Speaker 5: that Macro has really done a disservice to investors really

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Speaker 5: since two thousand and nine.

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Speaker 4: Now, your question is what happens when we get a

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Speaker 4: flood of all this.

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Speaker 5: Data again, it could be information overload, and at the

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Speaker 5: end of the day, we're kind of looking forward with

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Speaker 5: respect to what the oh, what's going to be in

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Speaker 5: terms of these job losses that we keep hearing about

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Speaker 5: and what the FED is going to do in twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty six. I think this backup and yields to five

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Speaker 5: percent clearly has put a dampening on the broadening out

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Speaker 5: trade on a near term basis. We still think longer

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Speaker 5: term rates a year from now will be lower, and

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Speaker 5: that will actually be very very good for the broadening

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Speaker 5: out trade into small.

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Speaker 4: Gap into value, into things like dividend growth as well.

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Speaker 6: Brian, for those that are concerned about valuation in this market,

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Speaker 6: I think they may be focus in particular on kind

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Speaker 6: of this AI trade and kind of the has the

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Speaker 6: AI phenomenon across the economy, not just stack Has that

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Speaker 6: created a bubble in the market?

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Speaker 7: How do you kind of address that issue?

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Speaker 5: Well, nice to see if Paul and waves you the

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Speaker 5: other day when I was in studios.

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Speaker 4: It's kind of fun.

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Speaker 5: Anyway, I think that bubble, I know, I'm sorry that

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Speaker 5: bubble is one of the most overused phrases in investments

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Speaker 5: and in finance, just like dysfunctional family in most families.

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Speaker 5: We'll find that out in about three weeks from today

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Speaker 5: or tomorrow in terms of Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 4: But anyway, I would say, I would say this that

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Speaker 4: even when you're leading.

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Speaker 5: Up to this interview, you talked about Qualcom, and Qualcom

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Speaker 5: is a great company, but you see how Qualcom's running

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Speaker 5: their business relative to some of their chip makers. We're

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Speaker 5: seeing massive differentiation across companies. Back in the nineties, ninety nine,

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Speaker 5: two thousand, we didn't have a lot of differentiation. All

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Speaker 5: stocks that had anything to do with dot Com we

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Speaker 5: used to call them dot bomb. After that, we're all

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Speaker 5: kind of moving together. You're starting to see massive fundamental

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Speaker 5: and performance deviations with respect to the diffusion and how

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Speaker 5: these companies are. And so I don't think all companies

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Speaker 5: are created equal in the AI space, and I think

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Speaker 5: saying bubble is just a scare tactic.

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Speaker 4: I would say also this, Paul, I.

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Speaker 5: Really want you to think about the late nineties and

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Speaker 5: how much everyone was making money. And what I mean

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Speaker 5: by everybody is you had the big investment banks, had

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Speaker 5: these these amazing and these huge IPOs, these huge secondary offerings,

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Speaker 5: and most importantly, these business combinations.

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Speaker 4: A lot of mergers and acquisitions.

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Speaker 5: That were done with stock, where companies were buying other

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Speaker 5: companies with stock that they had no value because the

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Speaker 5: stock went up and they were taking that appreciation of

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Speaker 5: the stock to buy another company. We're not seeing any

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Speaker 5: of that yet, So when we see more of that frothy, frivolous.

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Speaker 4: Type of activity, we would become a little bit more worried.

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Speaker 6: On the AI side, paper buying real companies, think AOL

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Speaker 6: buying time Warner.

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Speaker 7: That was the trade of that decade.

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Speaker 6: Brian talk to us about earning share where you know,

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Speaker 6: kind of as seventy percent away through earnings. Seems to

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Speaker 6: be pretty solid earning spree for Q three after a

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Speaker 6: good Q two as well. Is this enough to support

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Speaker 6: this market?

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Speaker 5: We think it is, and that's what kept us bullish

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Speaker 5: after the April time period where we saw the out

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Speaker 5: year period with respect to twenty twenty six versus twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty five earnings revisions.

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Speaker 4: Really begin to bottom on.

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Speaker 5: In turn, we think that's really what's driven a big

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Speaker 5: part of this. We also think too that if you

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Speaker 5: take a look at the equal weight to S and

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Speaker 5: P five hundred, those companies actually from an earning's revision

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Speaker 5: basis are starting to see a lot stronger recovery.

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Speaker 4: Lastly, if you take a look at the operating performance.

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Speaker 5: Of companies, whether or it's cash flow or return on

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Speaker 5: equity or return on assets. We're starting to see from

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Speaker 5: a sector basis, the majority of the most cyclical areas

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Speaker 5: begin to turn and out.

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Speaker 4: What makes this field really really good? About twenty six

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Speaker 4: and twenty seven.

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Speaker 3: Brian Belski with iss samilis here this morning across the

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Speaker 3: nation on YouTube. Thank you worldwide for your support on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. We're waiting on Kathy Wood here

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Speaker 3: in about five minutes. Going from Brian Bellskin to Kathy Wood.

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Speaker 3: A good thing, Brian, I got to squeeze two things

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Speaker 3: in here. All of a sudden, we have tech issuing

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Speaker 3: bonds to pay for AI. Of course you study you

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Speaker 3: should have seen him. He got an A plus at

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Speaker 3: USC in Medigliani and Miller's theorem.

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Speaker 2: Does it matter that big tech issues debt?

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Speaker 8: Brian Belski, Well, if you take a look at debt

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Speaker 8: equity in the tech sector, but then also free cash flow,

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Speaker 8: it's off the charts in terms of free cash flow

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Speaker 8: and debt equity is very very low.

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Speaker 5: So with respect to where where they are in the cycle,

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Speaker 5: it's not surprising that they're out in the debt markets

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Speaker 5: doing this, especially given the fact that capex is that

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Speaker 5: now the bigger question Tom is going to be in

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Speaker 5: two years from now, do we see a massive reversal

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Speaker 5: in Capex?

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Speaker 9: And I don't mean to be Johnny.

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Speaker 5: Rainklau, but at some point we're going to have our recession.

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Speaker 5: So are we going to have a Capex recession in

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Speaker 5: a couple of years?

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Speaker 4: Again, I don't know that, but when you have.

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Speaker 5: This big ramp up in capex funded by something else

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Speaker 5: that is not normally funded, I think that could ultimately

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Speaker 5: lead some pullback in the market.

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Speaker 3: Okay, this is a classy way Belskin and I've been

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Speaker 3: doing this for years and he's a class ack.

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Speaker 2: Folks.

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Speaker 3: As you know, Brian your opiniata and Kathy Wood is

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Speaker 3: a greater piniata than Brian Belski. I want you to

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Speaker 3: explain the efficacy of a tech only and a high

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Speaker 3: beta tech only trade if your time frame is longer

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Speaker 3: than a year. Right now to Keathy Wood's on fire,

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Speaker 3: but over a longer time frame, her math, her performance

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Speaker 3: goes way down. You can't have it both ways, Ken.

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Speaker 4: You you can't. And we have a tremendous amount of

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Speaker 4: respect for Kathy. We've known her for a long time.

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Speaker 5: I remember going to her offices when I was a

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Speaker 5: strategist at Merrillnch even before that, Piper, Jeffrey and so

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Speaker 5: I think that the holding period for stocks is what

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Speaker 5: kind of what in the average of those of those

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Speaker 5: performances really really hurt that longer term side of things.

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Speaker 2: But remember you go back to the.

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Speaker 5: Old notion of Stocksviville long run and buying more on

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Speaker 5: dips and things like that. That's why we're big believers

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Speaker 5: of having different strategies and also running portfolios with respect

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Speaker 5: to value, a small mid gap and dividing growth to

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Speaker 5: balance out the tech positions.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Brian, one final thing. I mean, Michael Barr calls

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Speaker 3: in sick today. Do you see that, like three am?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 3: You know, he calls it in a bapslager and he's sick,

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Speaker 3: and I called it missus. Barry said he's not sick.

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Speaker 3: The Vikings beat the Lions. Okay, Ryan, help me here,

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Speaker 3: JJ McCarthy, Is he really for real or was that

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Speaker 3: a one off what he did to the Detroit Lions?

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Speaker 5: Well? Quite frankly, he's got a big test this weekend too,

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Speaker 5: with the Ravens. The Ravens haven't been playing great this year,

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Speaker 5: but they do have that traditional strong defense.

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Speaker 4: In our view, being in.

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Speaker 5: Minnesota here, we don't believe anybody on the sports side

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Speaker 5: until they put a string of games together. And JJ

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Speaker 5: unfortunately hasn't been able to put a couple of games

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Speaker 5: together number one because he's been hurt and number two

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Speaker 5: because you know, he hasn't really been able to do that.

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Speaker 4: So I think this is a big test for him.

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Speaker 5: We're hopeful and quite frankly prayerful that we finally have

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Speaker 5: a franchise quarterback, but time will tell.

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Speaker 3: We will see on time will tell. With Brian Belski,

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Speaker 3: he sets up Qumillus and will of course be calling

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Speaker 3: on all of the institutional success he's had with this

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Speaker 3: great bull market. He is one who has absolutely nailed

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Speaker 3: Paul participate. Brian Belski is with Humillis. Thank you so much, Brian,

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Speaker 3: and best of luck from all of Team Surveillance.

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Speaker 2: Stay with us.

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Speaker 10: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Apple karplay and android otto with the Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: We have the right kind studio and now want to

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Speaker 3: treat usually a Queen Victoria Streeter and a continent somewhere.

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Speaker 2: Older Schweting is with us right.

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Speaker 3: Now, truly expert on all of this at baron Berg Bank.

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Speaker 3: Let me start with the same question I had for

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Speaker 3: mister Howard at B and P Perry back. Should the

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Speaker 3: Fed is Central Bank, the US Central Bank enjoy the

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Speaker 3: descent that we see at the Bank of England? Do

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Speaker 3: you embrace A five to four vote is a good

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Speaker 3: talking point?

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Speaker 11: I would say it's a good talking point, But descent

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Speaker 11: on its own is not always good. It depends on

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Speaker 11: what the arguments are. And in a way, this descent

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Speaker 11: shows that we are in rather uncertain times. The Bank

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Speaker 11: of England really is having a quandary. Inflation very high,

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Speaker 11: but the economy lightly is low.

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Speaker 3: So what do they do in the reset to a

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Speaker 3: higher inflation rank going from one point ninety two percent

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Speaker 3: out to two point x Dare I say three percent?

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Speaker 2: There's a culture for.

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Speaker 3: That in America, maybe there's a culture for that in

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Speaker 3: pre Brexit England, Germany to Pokote, the economists Bart Simpson, Yep,

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Speaker 3: they're gonna have a cow. How is Germany going to

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Speaker 3: react to a new higher inflation regime?

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Speaker 11: Well, Germany will probably be part of the higher inflation

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Speaker 11: regime for a simple reason. We have labor shortages coming

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Speaker 11: across most of the advanced world, especially in the US

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Speaker 11: thanks to well net immigration dropping to zero over here

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Speaker 11: and in Europe demography plays a role labor shortages. Main

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Speaker 11: wages in the future, not necessarily this year or next year,

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Speaker 11: but longer run will rise faster than in the past.

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Speaker 11: Artificial intelligence helps but won't fully offset that.

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Speaker 9: Get used to more wage.

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Speaker 11: Inflation in the long run, and central banks needing to

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Speaker 11: keep rates at a level that's above what we usually

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Speaker 11: had for the last twenty years.

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Speaker 6: You know, most of us grew up with globalization and

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Speaker 6: arguably the net positive effects of globalization.

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Speaker 7: Is globalization dead or on the back burner?

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Speaker 6: How do you think about globalzation and the economic effects

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Speaker 6: of globalization over the last forty fifty years?

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Speaker 7: Where are we on that story?

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Speaker 12: Now?

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Speaker 9: The big wave of globalization is over.

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Speaker 11: China has fully integrated into the world economy, and now

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Speaker 11: it's actually that China is sort of decoupling here, and

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Speaker 11: they're a bit from the global economy, and we are

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Speaker 11: no longer in a phase of globalization. We are in

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Speaker 11: a phase of regionalization. Trade relations and financial relations between friends,

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Speaker 11: between partners, between close neighbors are likely to increase significantly.

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Speaker 11: We see the trend clearly in Europe where we see

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Speaker 11: our exports to the US and China drop, what where

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Speaker 11: we see our internal trade increase. So French choring, French

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Speaker 11: trading would say, is the new is the new trend?

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Speaker 11: And then we'll see what happens with AI with So.

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Speaker 6: The Germany district are getting closer together, well, they've been

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Speaker 6: pretty pretty close for a long time already, but it's

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Speaker 6: the Germans and the pone size one example, are getting

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Speaker 6: closer together.

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Speaker 11: For instan it's Germany now exports more to Poland than

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Speaker 11: it does to China.

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Speaker 9: This is one of the big changes in the world.

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Speaker 2: This is really This came up a couple of days ago.

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Speaker 3: Holger schmeting with US folks to advance the conversation, and

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Speaker 3: we welcome all of you acrassination on YouTube. Thank you

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Speaker 3: so much for this experiment. A lot of conversation in

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Speaker 3: Montreal about the YouTube talked about it's another distribution of

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Speaker 3: what we're doing, particularly abroad, and thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: The October numbers at Google gave us were just really

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Speaker 2: really outstanding futures of ten here, the VIC seventeen point

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Speaker 2: eight three and the broader economy globally in America. Holger

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Speaker 2: schmeeting with this a Behrenberg Bank. I look Holger at

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Speaker 2: where we are and to me, it still comes down

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Speaker 2: to business investment, the whole AI distraction and nominal GDP.

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Speaker 2: What's your frame out of nominal GDP out two years.

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Speaker 11: Well, for the US, nominal DDP growth is going to

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Speaker 11: slow somewhat, largely because the real economy is slow. That

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Speaker 11: is largely due to Trump policies. Tariffs are ultimately bad,

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Speaker 11: even if they'll lead to an initial search of inward investment.

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Speaker 11: And the AI boom is great, but you probably cannot

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Speaker 11: maintain the growth rates of AI related investment. And as

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Speaker 11: to inflation in the US, it will recede a bit

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Speaker 11: thanks to the help of shelter for say the next

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Speaker 11: twelve month, but it will stay elevated point five percent

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Speaker 11: at higher and longer term.

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Speaker 9: Labor shortage is biting the.

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Speaker 11: US inflation rate is set will likely settle at two

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Speaker 11: point five to three percent, at one point five percent

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Speaker 11: trend growth to that and your nominal GDP well four

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Speaker 11: and a bit.

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Speaker 6: We saw Germany and some other European countries step up

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Speaker 6: their spending earlier this year in terms of infrastructure defense.

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Speaker 6: Give us an update on that. Is that actually happening.

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Speaker 6: Are the dollars being spent or the euros being spent?

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Speaker 11: Well, what you saw earlier this year is actually in

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Speaker 11: an announcement that Germany will step up in spending. Okay,

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Speaker 11: we have seen it for defense spending since twenty three

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Speaker 11: that is being stepped up, But the big investment infrastructure

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Speaker 11: boost is only in the making. Germany passed its budget

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Speaker 11: for this year in September, so the orders are now

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Speaker 11: being placed, probably for the actual investment taking place next year,

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Speaker 11: which is one reason why next year Germany will be

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Speaker 11: doing a little better on its economy than it's been

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Speaker 11: doing for the last four years.

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Speaker 2: Can I do an audible sure? Okay.

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Speaker 3: One of the big themes in Montreal was like where

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Speaker 3: we're going with climate change? Of David Gura down in

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Speaker 3: Brazil at COP thirty and all that. I read an

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Speaker 3: article about Portia which I think is owned by VWS Buzzing,

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Speaker 3: and they're flat on their back because they bet on

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Speaker 3: electric and they're turning away from that. You're one of

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Speaker 3: the best I know on this holder. Where is green?

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Speaker 3: Where is climate change? Where is the liberality of those politics?

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Speaker 3: I'm a continent in Britain over the next five years.

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Speaker 3: Is there a shift going on?

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Speaker 11: There is a shift going on, not really away from greenery.

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Speaker 11: We in Europe are fully aware that climate change is

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Speaker 11: a threat, but we're also aware that we have to

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Speaker 11: be pragmatic about how we reduce our CO two emissions.

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Speaker 11: So we are heading for more flexible, more pragmatic approaches,

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Speaker 11: and so some companies that tried in a way to

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Speaker 11: front run the transition to electric vehicles are now seeing okay,

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Speaker 11: we're not going that fast, but it's the pace is

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Speaker 11: slowing down, but the transition towards greener outlook, towards greener

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Speaker 11: policies that is ongoing in Europe.

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Speaker 2: The most visious notes I ever got was from a

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Speaker 2: fan l from New Jersey. Oh yeah, Elle emails in.

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Speaker 3: He goes It's not the Detroit Auto Show, it's the

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Speaker 3: North American International Auto Show. I'm at the North American

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Speaker 3: International Auto Show Polgish meeting with the head of Mercedes,

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Speaker 3: the guy with the mustache, and the answer is he goes,

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Speaker 3: we're not going green line, that we're going to be hybrid.

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Speaker 3: So in Germany there's this parsing between Mercedes, who've done

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Speaker 3: it more intelligently than someone like Porsche. Is that is

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Speaker 3: that accurate?

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Speaker 11: Well, different companies have done it differently, and they need

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Speaker 11: Some companies went probably a bit too far in trying

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Speaker 11: to sort of front run the green but hybrid is

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Speaker 11: sort of probably an intermediate stage. I would say we

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Speaker 11: are ultimately going very much towards electro mobility, but the

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Speaker 11: pace at which we are going and the transition being

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Speaker 11: a bit more pragmatic, a bit more hybrid, that is

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Speaker 11: kind of a change that's creeping in In response to well,

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Speaker 11: it's it's not cheap to do the trend.

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Speaker 3: Can I just make an observation for Augish meeting and

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Speaker 3: all of the continent, it is so good that Lufthansa

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Speaker 3: didn't get rid of the seven forty seven. One of

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Speaker 3: the great things in New York City is a Loutanza

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Speaker 3: seven forty.

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Speaker 2: Seven j a Newerican JFK. Every day that's a great

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Speaker 2: and beautiful they're way much. We should bring them back.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, we're definitely that's a streat point.

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Speaker 3: Holger schmraining with us on this day of dissent at

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Speaker 3: the Bank of England. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Surveillance coming.

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Speaker 10: Up after this.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty joining.

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Speaker 3: Us now and really really looking for She's been so

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Speaker 3: busy that we really had a challenge to get around

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Speaker 3: now a generous amount of time was Shannon O'Neill's Senior

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Speaker 3: Vice President Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations,

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Speaker 3: Definitive on Latin America in the broader global economy. Shannon O'Neil,

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Speaker 3: you've got though it's been way too long, by the way, Shannon,

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Speaker 3: you've got this fabulous essay on supply lines. If you're

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Speaker 3: to sit with President Trump and explain America's naivete about

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Speaker 3: our supply lines, what would you say to the president.

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Speaker 12: Well, thanks for having me, and there's so much to say,

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Speaker 12: but I think, especially in this article, i'd narrow in

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Speaker 12: on defense because that really is the issue and where

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Speaker 12: there is reasons to intervene in the US economy to

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Speaker 12: make sure that we're secure. And here the blanket TIFFs

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Speaker 12: that we put in place, some of the other controls

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Speaker 12: that we've had are making us less safe rather than more.

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Speaker 12: And in part because the company is the primes, you know,

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Speaker 12: those at our defense contractors is really hard to work

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Speaker 12: in this environment. They have challenges now to their supply

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Speaker 12: because tariffs on steel, aluminum, other things are increasing their costs,

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Speaker 12: which is more expensive for our tax players and for

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Speaker 12: these companies. But there's also challenges now for demand. These

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Speaker 12: are specialized industries, and you know the way you get

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Speaker 12: contracts is through treaties, through alliances. You don't sell an

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Speaker 12: F thirty five to just anybody. And as we step

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Speaker 12: back from these alliances with traditional allies, you know there's

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Speaker 12: smaller markets out there from many of these companies.

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Speaker 6: Shannon, does that open the way for China, Russia others

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Speaker 6: to fill the void?

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Speaker 12: It opens the way for those, but it also opens

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Speaker 12: the way for other industries to grow around the world. Right,

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Speaker 12: We've seen Germany talk about spending a trillion dollars over

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Speaker 12: the next ten years, but a lot of that's for

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Speaker 12: their own defense industry. And you know, traditionally allies like

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Speaker 12: European Allies, Middle Eastern Allies, Asian Allies, Japan, South Koreina, like,

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Speaker 12: they've bought a lot from our suppliers. Right, they haven't

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Speaker 12: always had their own homegrown industries. And I think some

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Speaker 12: of the geopolitical shifts and the worries about the trust

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Speaker 12: in the United States and the breaking or the diminishing

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Speaker 12: of alliances mean they are thinking that they need to

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Speaker 12: go with their own. So there's going to be more

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Speaker 12: competitors out there in the global marketplace, not just adversaries.

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Speaker 6: Is there are some of these relationships that the US

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Speaker 6: has built up maybe post World War Two?

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Speaker 7: Have they been?

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Speaker 6: How badly damaged have they been? They recoverable? Do you

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Speaker 6: think in years ahead, if we have the will to

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Speaker 6: do that, You.

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Speaker 12: Know, they've been bent. I don't think they've been necessarily

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Speaker 12: been broken. And you saw on President Trump's trip just

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Speaker 12: to Asia, you know, a week plus ago, reaffirming some

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Speaker 12: of these alliances with Australia, August some with you know,

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Speaker 12: South Korea going to build nuclear submarines together in Philadelphia

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Speaker 12: along with ships. So there's some repairing here, but a

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Speaker 12: lot of this, you know, these alliances are based on

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Speaker 12: mutual trust, and I think the volatility of US policy

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Speaker 12: is bending that.

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Speaker 3: Shannon on you with us with the CONSOL on foreign relations,

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Speaker 3: we could have a two hour conversation. I could be like,

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Speaker 3: you know, like I did the thing with the governor

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Speaker 3: the other day of the FED. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 3: we could get up on a stage and like go

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Speaker 3: three hours and Venezuela, Shannon, you have followed like no

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Speaker 3: one else I know in America, Maduro, in Venezuela, your

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Speaker 3: thoughts on the present mystery of what the guns doing,

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Speaker 3: your thoughts on the future of Venezuela.

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Speaker 12: You know, I think the challenge with Venezuela is, you know,

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Speaker 12: if the United States wanted to go in and replace Maduro,

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Speaker 12: we could, But the question is what happens the day after? Right,

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Speaker 12: This is a country that, over the last twenty five

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Speaker 12: years has lost its democratic institutions. It's controlled by a

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Speaker 12: kleptocratic even criminal regime, and it has lots of different

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Speaker 12: militarized parts to it. It has a military, it has

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00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 12: a secret police, it has local militias, it has remnants

441
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 12: of Colombian gorilla groups, the FARK, the Ila, and these others.

442
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 12: And so if the US ends up going there, you're

443
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 12: going to get a place that is incredibly militarized, incredibly complicated,

444
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:47,119
Speaker 12: and very difficult to return to anything that resembles a democracy.

445
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 12: So there's a bit of a break it. You boughtit here, well,

446
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 12: I think.

447
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 3: Cuba, And again you've been fabulous on this, and I

448
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 3: think of the arching Monroe doctrine somehow coming over to

449
00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 3: some new Trump doctrine. But Shannon O'Neil, the structure of

450
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 3: Venezuela culture, is it like Cuba where it's basically shattered,

451
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 3: or is there a finance, an investment, a social system

452
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:14,119
Speaker 3: after Maduro that can move on.

453
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 12: You know, lots of the civil society institutions have really

454
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,640
Speaker 12: been destroyed, and you know, eight million people have left

455
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 12: the country and so lots of that has gone with them.

456
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 12: Now there is a possibility they would come back. But

457
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,719
Speaker 12: as you look for analogies, I would look less at

458
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 12: Panama or at Cuba. I would look more at Iraq,

459
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 12: how do you know, rebuild a country and where you

460
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 12: have lots of militarized people, what's the debatification, what's the

461
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 12: de chavisation of Venezuela. Look like that would be the

462
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 12: challenge for our next government.

463
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 7: Shannon Is.

464
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 6: I'm just trying to think of the role of you know,

465
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 6: President Trump has focused on More America first, and that

466
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 6: has economic ramifications, it has political ramifications, maybe even security ramifications.

467
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 7: How do you think the rest of the world views

468
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 7: the US these days?

469
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 12: You know, as I look at the reactions of those

470
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 12: last nine months, particularly in the economic space and the TIFFs. Yes,

471
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 12: you see lots of you know, governments coming here trying

472
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 12: to sign free trade agreements or frameworks with the United States.

473
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 12: So we've seen that, but you know, these trade negotiators

474
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 12: are going to all other capitals in the world, and

475
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 12: I think what's really interesting here is the dynamism of

476
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 12: free trade activity, not including the United States. You know,

477
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 12: I think there's a good chance that the EU in

478
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 12: South America will finally ratify an agreement between those two

479
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 12: of free trade agreement's been twenty plus years in the making,

480
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 12: partly because of Trump tariffs. You see the EU going

481
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 12: to India, going to the UAE, going to Indonesia talking

482
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 12: about joining the CPTPP. So you know, one of the

483
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 12: biggest trade packs in the world. You see a lot

484
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 12: of dynamism that isn't including the United States, and even

485
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 12: just on the ground. In nine months, you see trade

486
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 12: re routing. Right, global trade is up this year, but

487
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 12: not in North America, not with Uniteds.

488
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,360
Speaker 3: I saw charge just in the last forty eight hours.

489
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 3: Folks on I'm so sorry I can't cite it, but

490
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 3: Shannon and done to that point. We all know when

491
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 3: Africa slipped away and China bought resources in Africa. Are

492
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 3: we at a point here where South America and Latin

493
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 3: America slips away and China takes over those relationships and

494
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 3: those trade trade dynamics.

495
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 12: Now, I think there is still a desire in Latin

496
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 12: America and the Western Hemisphere to trade with the United States. Right,

497
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 12: the United States has been the biggest foreign direct investor,

498
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 12: It's been one of the biggest trade partners. And what

499
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 12: they trade with the United States is more complicated good,

500
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 12: it's not just resources and you know, commodities going out

501
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 12: to China, which has normally been the exports from Latin

502
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 12: America to China. So there's a desire there, but there's

503
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 12: a challenge as you start putting terras on, as you

504
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,439
Speaker 12: start putting other restrictions. And Latin America so far with

505
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 12: Brazil as an exception, has seen lower rates on the

506
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 12: sort of universal rates, but it still matters. And so

507
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,919
Speaker 12: you are seeing opening for China, for the EU, for

508
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 12: others to come in.

509
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 3: When's the next book, Shannon, We're waiting, when's the next book?

510
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 2: Come on?

511
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 12: We're gonna look at, you know, industrial strategy, industrial policy,

512
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 12: because that's where the world's headed.

513
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 2: Okay, on the supply lines.

514
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 3: A brilliant article in Foreign Affairs, Shannon o'neilla, driving Force

515
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 3: ayers the Greenberg.

516
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 2: Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations. Stay with us.

517
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

518
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

519
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,199
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarcklay, and Android

520
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

521
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

522
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

523
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 2: What did I missed while I was away?

524
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 3: The newspapers with Lisa much anything from the Montreal Gazette

525
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 3: thing exactly.

526
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 13: All right, so we want to start with AI because

527
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 13: we hear so much about AI taking jobs, right, Okay,

528
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 13: so now AI power users at work. They're making their

529
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 13: coworkers look like slackers, and it's starting to cause this tension. Okay,

530
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 13: all yeah, so this is in the Wall Street Journal.

531
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 13: So it's basically not you know, people who do machine

532
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 13: learning and all. It's just people who have skills at

533
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 13: using the AI tools that they have. And so it's

534
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 13: causing this kind of tension because they're now you know,

535
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,360
Speaker 13: showing up the bosses, and then the other people are like, well,

536
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 13: what about me?

537
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 7: The case this is a generational thing because I feel

538
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 7: like the younger function.

539
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 12: Better, better at it.

540
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 7: Yeah, I can see that. I can see that.

541
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 13: But they're they're doing like they have their own personal branding,

542
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 13: Like they have YouTube pages where they post their tips

543
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 13: on how to do this. They go on you know, LinkedIn,

544
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:42,719
Speaker 13: and they post little articles on these tips on how

545
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 13: to use the as.

546
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 6: This is similar back into my day, if you were

547
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 6: like a good spreadsheet person.

548
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 7: Yeah, that like that was my generation was.

549
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 3: The queen of Excel and so many people in the

550
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 3: New York area lenor major shout out Courtney Donahoe.

551
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, is an act of God on an Excel spread.

552
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 7: Wow, it's frightening.

553
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 2: It's frightening.

554
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 3: She looked at me once and goes, are you the

555
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 3: worst Excel spreadsheet user in the world. It said, yes, dear,

556
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 3: I am ye carrly Dyna. Now it's I agree, Like,

557
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 3: AI is a huge deal.

558
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 13: Yes, and it can help you rise up the ranks.

559
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 13: And you know, because they're saying, like, the difference if

560
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:18,880
Speaker 13: a bot doesn't replace you a human who knows how

561
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 13: to use it, it's.

562
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 3: Oh, that's what that is. Spartan, how's having a meeting?

563
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,400
Speaker 3: Who was sparted that? They said, Hey, stupid, you're a bot.

564
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 2: I didn't know what he meant.

565
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 7: Now I got it, Okay, so we'll stick with AI.

566
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 13: This is from the Washington Post about how the NFL

567
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 13: is using AI to prevent injuries. Pretty interesting. So they're

568
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 13: using this thing called Digital Athlete. It's this AI platform

569
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 13: and helps them kind of figure out player performance. So

570
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 13: it basically this database, right, thousands of players in there.

571
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 13: Each one has this little avatar, but they can identify

572
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 13: little changes in movement that can be a shina of

573
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 13: fatigue or maybe show if someone's about to get hurt,

574
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 13: So maybe a veteran skips out on the drills or

575
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 13: maybe you know, then sits down on practice this day.

576
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 12: Because they can predict that.

577
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 13: You know what, they might get hurt, they continue using

578
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 13: So this is something they're using. They're actually saying it's

579
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 13: working because since they launched it back in twenty twenty three,

580
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 13: practice related lower extremity strains have dropped about fourteen percent

581
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 13: league wide.

582
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 7: So they do different things.

583
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, they did that with me and Paul.

584
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I keep us off the field's rocking it with

585
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 3: Scarlet Food, you know, eleven twenty two and they get

586
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 3: the software.

587
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 7: Going exactly five hours of radio make a mistakes, get there.

588
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 7: He's about to draw intelligence ten eight this morning. I

589
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 7: like this next story here because I'm thinking of Scarlet

590
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 7: and Matt.

591
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 2: You scar the stories up front, but you see the stories.

592
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 6: I know a person I know, I don't he's vip

593
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 6: yep because so much for me more please this is why.

594
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 13: Because yes, they live in Westchester, right and now more

595
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 13: people coming back to work, so that means more gridlock,

596
00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 13: more people coming to the city, which means there is

597
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 13: a new way to get into the city, and it

598
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 13: is a twelve minute helicopter ride. Okay, it leaves, yes,

599
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 13: it goes from Westchester and it goes back here. There's

600
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 13: a place on thirtieth Street and twelfth Avenue that's Blade

601
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 13: Lounge West, right near Hudson Yards. Or it drops it

602
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 13: from Westchester Hudson Yards. It's Blade Air Mobility. It's part

603
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 13: of Joby Aviation. They're starting at December first, and you

604
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 13: can take it. It's going to cost you. So if

605
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 13: you're wondering how much scar forty, Okay, there you go

606
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 13: a single flight one hundred and twenty five dollars if

607
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 13: you have their Blade Commuter pass. It's two hundred and

608
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 13: twenty five dollars without one. So the cost for that pass,

609
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 13: if you're wondering, it's two hundred and fifty for the week.

610
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 13: You can do the thousand a month, or hey, just

611
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 13: go for the ten thousand dollars for the unlimited ships

612
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 13: for the year.

613
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 7: All right, that's the way to go for Scarletton. What's

614
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 7: the way to go?

615
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 2: Lisa Mantiro the newspapers this morning, thank you so much

616
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 2: for that.

617
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

618
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

619
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter and on Blueloomberg dot Com,

620
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

621
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

622
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal