WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Seema Shah & Paul Quinsee

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best idea, the single best idea today. The

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<v Speaker 2>conversation that Jonathan Farroll had with an exiting Stephen Myron

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<v Speaker 2>was absolutely extraordinary. I can't say enough about the debate

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<v Speaker 2>that Governor Myron has engendered over should central banks have

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<v Speaker 2>a policy prescription and get out front versus wait to

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<v Speaker 2>see what the data is As a broader sense, we

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<v Speaker 2>thank Nawong for some choice comments on that interview. Really

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<v Speaker 2>really interesting interview that John Farrell had with Governor Myron.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best idea, Well, you've got to go to

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<v Speaker 2>Sema Shaw coming off that interview talking about central banks

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<v Speaker 2>from Principal Asset Management.

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<v Speaker 1>Miss Shaw, there's a line in the sounder, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we don't get to a point where they so much disagreement.

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<v Speaker 1>That actually is very difficult for markets to get to

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<v Speaker 1>a point where they know the kind of direction that

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<v Speaker 1>central banks are moving in. But at the same time

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<v Speaker 1>having that active debate, I think it's important for the

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<v Speaker 1>vested at this time we need to try and think through,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, what is the impact of population growth, the

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<v Speaker 1>impact of AI. Is it going to be disinflation or

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<v Speaker 1>is it going to be inflationary. These are really really

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<v Speaker 1>key questions that we ourselves are grappling with. They're trying

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<v Speaker 1>to get an idea and understanding of how the federals

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<v Speaker 1>of the Bank of England, et cetera are considering it.

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<v Speaker 1>I think is important as long as it doesn't spill

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<v Speaker 1>into significantly greater volatility, which makes it difficult to understand

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<v Speaker 1>how your portfolio decisions are going to be impacted.

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<v Speaker 2>Smash Principal Asset Management had a real emerging markets bent today.

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<v Speaker 2>Wonderful was Paul Quincy. He's the JP Morgan driving all

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<v Speaker 2>of their EM equity coverage, and you know, we were

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<v Speaker 2>talking about like what do you buy in emerging markets?

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<v Speaker 2>You buy the concrete company, you buy the telephone company.

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<v Speaker 2>Well know, you can broaden out from that. But every

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<v Speaker 2>once in a while, something falls off a cliff, and

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<v Speaker 2>I would know, I've never been in a Jolly Bee.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a Filipino fast food restaurant, but it's fallen off

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<v Speaker 2>a cliff. Pat Quincy of JP Morgan and Jolly Be There's.

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<v Speaker 3>Always going to be a couple of jolly Be's in

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<v Speaker 3>any portfolio, right. That's part of the that's part of

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<v Speaker 3>the life as an equity investor. I mean, I think

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<v Speaker 3>where we would be. One of the big things we're

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<v Speaker 3>looking out for, obviously, is when you see this level

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<v Speaker 3>of enthusiasm we've got for semiconductors at the moment, are

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<v Speaker 3>we setting ourselves up for a giant Jolly be type experience?

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<v Speaker 3>And the thing so we when you get a big

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<v Speaker 3>momentum move like this, we think there's three things to

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<v Speaker 3>watch for. Stretch valuations, rising volatility, and peaking earnings estimates.

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<v Speaker 3>So far valuations sort of mixed. Price to earnings low actually,

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<v Speaker 3>but anything else high, price to sales, price to book.

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<v Speaker 3>The companies are making so much money they're earning the valuations.

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<v Speaker 3>Most of the memory of stocks are still on single

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<v Speaker 3>digit multiples. Volatility, yes, going up an examentum.

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<v Speaker 2>So strong bottle it. That's all I can say for

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<v Speaker 2>those of you following the market. What you just heard

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<v Speaker 2>there out of the gentleman from JP Morgan in the

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<v Speaker 2>University of Durham, just listen to every word he said

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<v Speaker 2>on those three points. Closing out that Jolly B thought

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<v Speaker 2>I would really focus on margins in the first and

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<v Speaker 2>second derivatives of margin distress or excellence here forward, on

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<v Speaker 2>podcasts or on Apple, We're on Spotify, on YouTube, podcasts,

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<v Speaker 2>single best Idea,