1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:03,880 Speaker 1: What happened to the markets and home prices plunging, What 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:07,480 Speaker 1: happened in the economy supposedly slowing to a halt. Everyone 3 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:09,719 Speaker 1: expected to see this in twenty twenty two, in twenty 4 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: twenty three, when the Fed started raising rates at the 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 1: fastest rate in history. And more importantly, of course, now 6 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,639 Speaker 1: people are asking themselves what should we be expecting in 7 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, What should we be expecting for our money, 8 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: for our investments, our businesses, and even more especially considering 9 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four is going to be extremely volatile and 10 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: wild because of three critical events that are shaping what's 11 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 1: coming this year. Those three events, the three critical events 12 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: that I'm talking about are One, debt, massive amounts of 13 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: debt and huge government deficits all around the world, every country, 14 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 1: and in the face of massive inflation. How do they 15 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: handle debt the deficits while they're trying to fight inflation 16 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: a double edged war at the same time. Two, the 17 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: second critical event is we are in an election year. 18 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: So in an election year, that is going to drive 19 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,959 Speaker 1: the politics, the finances, the fiscal, the monetary and all 20 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: of that. What will that do to the markets? And 21 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 1: then three, the third critical event that everybody's watching and 22 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: we should see how we should keep eye on. This 23 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: is war, more war, and more war. If you're just 24 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 1: tune in, welcome to the Mark Moss Show. Each week 25 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 1: we dive into the intricate world of politics, finance, and technology, 26 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: looking at the intersection of those three things. And today 27 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: I'm gonna explain what I think comes next for our money, 28 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 1: for our investments, our businesses, and of course how to 29 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 1: position ourselves and what to watch for as things change. 30 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 1: Right now, Like I said, this is going to be 31 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: a volatile year. It's going to be a wild year, 32 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 1: and so we have to be paying attention. This is 33 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: certainly not a year to be sitting back and just 34 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: see how things go. Now, just real quick, on my 35 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: main YouTube channel, I've been putting out videos like this 36 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: for a long time. I don't top typically talk about 37 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: these things on the podcast, but just so you know. 38 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 2: Back in let's see. 39 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:10,839 Speaker 1: September of twenty twenty two, I made a video saying 40 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: that the central banks were going to be forced into pivoting, 41 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: and I gave the playbook for that then, and also 42 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: another video in September twenty two I said the real 43 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,079 Speaker 1: data from the Fed doesn't want you to see. They 44 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 1: hope you don't notice. And I was saying that they 45 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: were starting to pivot and that they were going to 46 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 1: push markets higher. Then the next month October, I said, 47 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:29,799 Speaker 1: this is how the FED is secretly patching the cracks, 48 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 1: and I showed how they were starting to inject money 49 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 1: while saying they were still tightening even they weren't. Now 50 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two and twenty three, everyone was calling 51 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 1: for the crash of the market. We're going to talk 52 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: about that in a second, but I'm just giving you 53 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: a little bit of track record here. Another one in 54 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 1: October twenty two, I said that there's no market crash coming, 55 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: and here's why. And I broke it down. Another one 56 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 1: in October twenty two, I said there's no financial crisis coming, 57 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:54,959 Speaker 1: no global financial crisis coming. I said November this is 58 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:58,799 Speaker 1: when the central banks are going to pivot. January of 59 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: twenty three, I said, breaking it shows the FED pivot 60 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: is here. Of course, if you would have bought in 61 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: anything bitcoin s and P five hundred and January twenty twenty. 62 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 2: Three, he did really, really well. 63 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: In January twenty three, I said, the new data tells 64 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: us it's time to buy, we should start buying. February, 65 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,119 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve is fighting the US government. I explained how 66 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 1: this war between deficits, deficits spending and inflation was between 67 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 1: the Fed and the Treasury, and how, of course the 68 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: Treasury was going to win out, which is of course 69 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 1: what we saw. I made a video in February seeing 70 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: my prediction for the global financial markets. So this is 71 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 1: my second prediction video for now for twenty twenty four. 72 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: I made another video about in June, saying watch out 73 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 1: because the debt ceiling is going to unleash a huge 74 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: amount of money. In the thumbnail said huge opportunity had 75 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 1: August I made a video why aren't the markets crashing? 76 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: And it was sort of like a quarterly report, and 77 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 1: what I was looking at everyone was dumbfounded. How come 78 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 1: the markets weren't crashing. We were told that real estate 79 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 1: was supposed to plunge in the recession and all these things, 80 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: and I made a video explaining that. August I said, 81 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: I made a video called bear market canceled New Data 82 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: real is why the bear market was canceled in September 83 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 1: of last year. Central banks give in, meaning they gave in, 84 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 1: they're thrown in the towel. They're done with quantitative tightening, 85 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: and do this now. I gave actions on that. November 86 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: of twenty three, I said, the Federal Reserve is fighting 87 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 1: the US government, so it's sort of back to the 88 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:19,159 Speaker 1: fight between the Fed and the government, between the monetary 89 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: and the fiscal policy, between inflation or the government continued 90 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 1: to spend debt. November of twenty three, I said, warning, 91 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:30,720 Speaker 1: this time is different, and I explained why the data 92 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 1: and things are different this time. I know, and I 93 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: know you've heard that before, right, things are different. No, 94 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,480 Speaker 1: they are always the same. Well, no, they're actually different. 95 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: The way that the central banks, not just the FED, 96 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 1: all the central banks around the world interacting the market 97 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 1: today is different. And I said one of this time 98 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: is different, and I talked about how really it changed 99 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight was where the big shift happened, 100 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: but it's only continued to escalate since then. And anyway, 101 00:04:57,560 --> 00:04:59,359 Speaker 1: that's a couple of the track record things I have. 102 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: Five weeks ago December, early December, I said that the 103 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 1: bitcoin ETF would probably be a buy the rumor sell 104 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: the news event and they would probably see some price 105 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 1: drop after that. Anyway, I could go on. I don't 106 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: want to sit here and continue to toot my own horn. 107 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: But I've done pretty well with I've done pretty well 108 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: with these predictions so far, and let's see if I 109 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 1: can keep this going. All right, But like I said, 110 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 1: this year is looking to be way more volatile, way 111 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: more wild than any year we've seen because of these 112 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: three critical events of course, the debt, the deficits and 113 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:33,119 Speaker 1: inflation to the election year and three, like I said, 114 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: war more, war more, war. But let's just talk back 115 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 1: through twenty twenty three for a minute before we keep 116 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 1: going on that. By the way, if you just tune in, 117 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,600 Speaker 1: you're listening to the Markmash Show. In twenty twenty three, 118 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: there was lots of calls for recession. Everybody was calling 119 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,479 Speaker 1: for recession. The Fed had just gone on the fastest 120 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: rate hiking cycle we've seen in history. We've been in 121 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: this massive inflation environment, lots of monetary easing. The interest 122 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 1: rates were basically at zero, so when the price of 123 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: money is cheap, people buy more of it, and so 124 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: we'd seen massive amounts of liquidity increasing interest rates for 125 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: a zero and then the Fed just hit the brakes right, 126 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 1: pulled the e break. If you will and raise the 127 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: rates at the fastest rate in history. Now everybody said, well, 128 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:14,840 Speaker 1: this is going to cause a recession. It's going to crash. 129 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 1: And as a matter of fact, we saw The Economist, 130 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 1: the magazine a lot of people turned to as an 131 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: authority figure, wrote an article titled why a global recession 132 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: is inevitable in twenty twenty three. There's betting markets that 133 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 1: I like to follow, where people are basically wagering on 134 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: where events will turn out, sort of like you can 135 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,920 Speaker 1: wager on a football game. There's also markets where you 136 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 1: can waghder on what you think the FED will do 137 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 1: with rate hikes, or what you think the odds of 138 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 1: a recession will be, all types of things like that, 139 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: And odds got as high as eighty percent chance that 140 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:51,719 Speaker 1: we would have a recession in twenty twenty three. The 141 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 1: consensus all across the US we're just way too negative. 142 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: It got us high as eighty percent, but it remained 143 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: at about a sixty five percent chance for most of 144 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 1: the year. So if you fell into this, you know 145 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: you were in the consensus, don't you know. 146 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 2: Whatever. 147 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: No worries most of the headlines that you were seeing 148 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: online on YouTube, on social media et cetera. Were calling 149 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 1: for this. Part of the reason why, it's. 150 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 2: Because it's very sensational. 151 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 1: When you show a thumbnail with fire and you have 152 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: your face open in a shock look, and you talk 153 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 1: about how the market's going to crash by eighty percent, 154 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: people want to watch that. But it just never materialized. 155 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 1: The economy never came close to you know, never came 156 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 1: close to crashing. The labor market went from strength to 157 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 1: even more strength, all right, So that's what happened in 158 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. The S and P five hundred finished 159 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 1: the year up big, Bitcoin finished the year up big, 160 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: and now here we are just entered twenty twenty four, 161 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: and a lot of those people who bet on pessimism 162 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three are doubling down for twenty twenty four. 163 00:07:56,560 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 1: Right now, the markets are showing that there's fifty percent 164 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: chance of recession this year in twenty twenty four, and 165 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 1: I think overall, like I said, those who bet on 166 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: it want to double down. I think there remains a 167 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 1: very strong reluctance to recognize any type of a soft landing. 168 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: People are just so stuck in their opinions that they 169 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 1: don't want to change their opinions even in the light 170 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 1: of new data, and of course that's always a problem. 171 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: You know, what is it strong convictions that are loosely held, right, 172 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: We need to be strong in our convictions, but we 173 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 1: have to be willing to change our mind when new 174 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: information comes out, and I think a lot of people 175 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: are just stuck in their ways. We see skeptics such 176 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 1: as Larry Summers, you know, is one of the big 177 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 1: mouthpieces out there. He said it would take five years 178 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 1: of six percent unemployment to bring inflation back down and 179 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: to have a soft landing. He said that soft landing 180 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: was at odds with theory and empirical evidence. But in fact, 181 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: here we are over a year and a half into 182 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 1: this soft landing. Had this soft landing, inflation has following 183 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 1: six percentage points. The CBO Congressional Budget Office is projecting 184 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 1: forecasting no recession until through twenty thirty. So what is 185 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 1: going to happen in twenty twenty four. We're going to 186 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 1: talk about that. If you're just tuning in you're listening 187 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: to the Mark Maas show, we're talking about twenty twenty 188 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: three recession and crash that didn't happen, and what I 189 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: predict will happen in twenty four and what you should 190 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: be doing about it. We'll be back with more on 191 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 1: that in a minute. 192 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 2: Don't go away, We're back, all. 193 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 1: Right, Welcome back. If you're just tune in, you're listening 194 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: to the Mark Maas Show. We're talking about what happened 195 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 1: with the recession and the market crash and the housing 196 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 1: market crash and twenty twenty three that never happened, and 197 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: more specifically, what I expect to happen in twenty twenty four. 198 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:48,959 Speaker 1: Now we talked about it sort of in the economy side, 199 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:50,679 Speaker 1: but what about the market. So we have sort of 200 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 1: the economy, which is businesses, recession, unemployment. 201 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 2: Then we have the market. 202 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 1: So then we're talking you know, stocks, equities, commodities, real estate, bitcoin, 203 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 1: things like that. The one thing that I'll say as 204 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:02,720 Speaker 1: we dive into this is I like to use as 205 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 1: Mark Twain quote. 206 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 2: I've been using it quite a bit lately in light of. 207 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 1: This, and the Marked Twain quote was that it's not 208 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: the things that you don't know that gets you in trouble, 209 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: it's the things that you know absolutely for certain. You see, 210 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: when the Fed started raising rates at the fastest rate 211 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 1: in history, everybody was certain that it would crash the market. 212 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 2: They were certain. They knew it. 213 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 1: When the FED raises the rates what we call the 214 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 1: risk free rate, because the FED is buying treasury is 215 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 1: technically risk free, if you can call it that. But 216 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 1: when they raise the risk free rate, then stocks have 217 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 1: to reprice lower. 218 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 2: They have to. 219 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:38,719 Speaker 1: They have to. 220 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 2: They have to. 221 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: They have to. When the mortgage rates go from two 222 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: and a half percent to eight percent, home prices have 223 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 1: to come down. 224 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:49,559 Speaker 2: They have to. They have to, they have to. This 225 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 2: was the consensus. 226 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 1: It was they knew for certain. Look, the average price 227 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 1: of the home went from seventeen hundred dollars a month 228 00:10:56,520 --> 00:11:00,559 Speaker 1: to now thirty five hundred. Nobody can afford that. That 229 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: means the home prices have to come down. 230 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:03,960 Speaker 2: They have to. They have do they have to. 231 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:06,559 Speaker 1: It was what they knew for certain that got them 232 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 1: in trouble. But now in hindsight we could see that 233 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 1: it wasn't so it didn't have to be that way, 234 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:17,199 Speaker 1: because of course stocks didn't get repriced lower, home prices 235 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 1: didn't crash. None of those things happened. So I just 236 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: like I said, I've been using that quote quite a bit. 237 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 1: Now I do want to let you know that I, 238 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: like I said, I'm going to be giving you sort 239 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 1: of my predictions for twenty twenty four with these three 240 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: critical events, and I have a whole presentation with all 241 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:35,199 Speaker 1: the charts, the graphs, the slides, et cetera. If you 242 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 1: want to check that out, go to go dot one, 243 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 1: Markmoss dot com slash twenty twenty four. Again, that's go 244 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 1: dot one, Markmoss dot com slash twenty twenty four. If 245 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 1: you want to see the charts, the graphs, the slides, 246 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 1: and specifically, if you want to see the assets and 247 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 1: the asset categories and assets I'm buying and how I'm 248 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 1: building my portfolio for twenty four and even more specifically 249 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: the exact indicators that I'm watching in case things change. 250 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 1: Go to go dot one, Markmoss dot com slash twenty 251 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 1: twenty before and you can watch that download it. Get 252 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 1: all of that. But let's talk about these three critical 253 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: events that I think are going to shape twenty twenty 254 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: four and more importantly, what they are going to do 255 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: to the markets. And again we're looking at debt and 256 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,320 Speaker 1: inflation and deficit spending, So let's just talk about that 257 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: for a minute. 258 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:18,599 Speaker 2: So we're going to talk about that. 259 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 1: Then we'll talk about the war and more wars, and 260 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 1: then we'll talk about electioneers. So the first thing is 261 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 1: we have debt, deficit spending, and inflation. Now those are 262 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: all sort of three sides to this coin that we 263 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:34,960 Speaker 1: have to think about, and specifically we think about the 264 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: debt and the deficit spending, so those two are sort 265 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 1: of together, right, So the government is spending more money 266 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 1: than they bring in, surprise, surprise, and not just the 267 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 1: US government, also all the European governments and the Canadian 268 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: government and the Chinese government and every other country in 269 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 1: the world. 270 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 2: As a matter of fact. 271 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 1: As bad as the US is, Canada is way worse, 272 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,959 Speaker 1: way worse, China is even worse than that, and most 273 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,840 Speaker 1: of the European countries, specifically the pigs in the South, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain, 274 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: they're even way worse. So the US is still what 275 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: we call the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry, if 276 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: you will. However, they have massive amounts of deficit spending, 277 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: so the government is spending more money than they bring in. 278 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, the United States has never 279 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 1: had this amount of deficit spending, this amount of increased 280 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 1: debt in a non war type environment. Now, I suppose 281 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 1: you could argue that we're in this perpetual state of war, 282 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 1: which I guess we are. We've been in the war 283 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:36,559 Speaker 1: on terror, the war on drugs, the war on obesity. 284 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 1: We've had the war on COVID, and now of course 285 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 1: we have the Ukraine War, we got the you know, 286 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: whatever's going on in the Middle East, potential war happening 287 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,440 Speaker 1: in China, Taiwan, and so we have these wars. But 288 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: and maybe that's driving the deficits spending, it's certainly part 289 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 1: of it. But what happened is, you know, we spent 290 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 1: all this through the pandemic, and as a matter of fact, 291 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:02,080 Speaker 1: the government spending went up by about fifty so from 292 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen pre pandemic. Whenever you're looking at financial data, 293 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 1: it's important to look at pre pandemic data because that 294 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: pandemic created such an anomaly, and a lot of what 295 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: you see is like oil prices are crashing, home prices 296 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 1: are crashing. A lot of it's just returning back to 297 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 1: this pre sort of pandemic bubble, if you will. However, 298 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: what we can see is that the government, the amount 299 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 1: of money that the US government spends went up by 300 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: about fifty percent, from about four and a half trillion 301 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: to about six point eight trillion. But after the pandemic 302 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 1: was over and they didn't have to send stimmy checks 303 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 1: out to people anymore, the government still continue to spend 304 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: that amount of money. As a matter of fact, through 305 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: all these debt ceiling debates, they never wanted to allow 306 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 1: even one dollar decrease in the amount of spending. All 307 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: the arguments are the rate of increases moving forward? Do 308 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: we want to slow down the increases? None of it 309 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 1: is talking about spending less, so we continue to spend 310 00:14:59,240 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: that amount of money. 311 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 2: Now. 312 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: The thing is with that is that the FED was 313 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 1: trying to fight inflation, and by trying to fight inflation, 314 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 1: they were trying to make you and I average people broke. 315 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: If we were broke, we would buy less gasoline, buy 316 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: less food, we would buy less house, we would travel less. 317 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: And if you and I were broken, we spent less money, 318 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: then supply and demand would bring the prices down. If 319 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: my stocks went down in value, I would feel broke. 320 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: I wouldn't spend as much money. If my home value 321 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 1: went down, I woud feel broke. I wouldn't spend as 322 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 1: much money. The problem was the FED could not make 323 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 1: you and I broke enough to offset the money that 324 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: the government the treasury was spending. So we call fiscal dominance. 325 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: The FED is running monetary policy, the Treasury is running 326 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 1: fiscal policy, as we call fiscal dominance. They are driving 327 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: it right. So now we have this tuggo war like 328 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: I kind of brought a lot some of these videos 329 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 1: I talked about in the past where the FED is 330 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: fighting the government. The FED wants to make you broke, 331 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 1: but the government won't stop spending. So that's what's been happening. 332 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 1: Now we also have the war, and now we have 333 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: potentially more wars, and that means even more spending. As 334 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 1: a matter of fact, most of the consensus seems to 335 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 1: be that the Ukraine wars sort of over at this point. 336 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 1: You know, the US has basically sort of sort of 337 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 1: withdrawn their support for it. No, none of the American 338 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 1: people have an appetite to continue to send money over there, 339 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 1: and it looks like the funding has basically dried up 340 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 1: last I saw. I think in the last day or two, 341 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: Zelenski is now wanting to have peace talks with Russia. However, 342 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: the US political elite still don't want to give up 343 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 1: on that, and they're still trying to bury more funding 344 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 1: in for Ukraine on that. In the meantime, we have 345 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 1: this whole situation going on over in the Middle East 346 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 1: with all of our navy, our aircraft carriers, et cetera, 347 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 1: and massive amounts of spending. So again the government spending 348 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 1: more money, more debt, more deficit, and that's what's driving 349 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:55,600 Speaker 1: thing and when and and so that's sort of this 350 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 1: this this this play this war if you will, now, 351 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: will the war get bigger and will that cause more 352 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 1: deficit spending or will the war shrink down? 353 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 2: So that's one of the predictions we're gonna get to. 354 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 1: And then we also have in the election year, So 355 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 1: we're an election year right now. I think only one 356 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 1: incumbent president of returning president running for a reelection has 357 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: ever won in a recession. So if the Democratic Party 358 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 1: wants to win, they will do everything in their power, 359 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 1: which is a lot, to make sure there is no recession. 360 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 1: But there could also be a lot of turbulence with 361 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: this election. It's I mean, rad Alio was on TV 362 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: this week say this'd be the most important election of 363 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 1: our life. Everyone's saying it's the most important election of 364 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 1: our life, and so what will that do. I'm going 365 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 1: to come back with my predictions on these events, what 366 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 1: they'll do with the economy, and what they'll do with 367 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 1: the markets, and the course how we should protect ourselves. 368 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:49,920 Speaker 1: If you want to see the whole slide presentation where 369 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 1: I have the charts, the graphs, I'll show you my portfolio, 370 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: show you the assets I'm buying, show you what I think, 371 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 1: what I'm doing, and what I'm watching. Go to go 372 00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 1: dot one Markmoss dot com slash twenty twenty four. Again, 373 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,440 Speaker 1: go to one Markmoss dot com slash twenty four, twenty 374 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: twenty four. If you're just tuning in, you're listening to 375 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:07,119 Speaker 1: the Mark Moss Show, I'm gonna give you my predictions 376 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 1: for this year what you can expect. 377 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 2: I'll be back with that in a minute. Do not 378 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:12,160 Speaker 2: go away. I'll be right back up. 379 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 1: All right, welcome back. If you're just tune in, you're 380 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 1: listening to the markmas Show. We are talking about my 381 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,159 Speaker 1: predictions for twenty twenty four. What's going to happen in 382 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 1: the economy, recession and overcession, what's going to happen in 383 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,880 Speaker 1: the markets, with their stocks or equities or assets, and 384 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:27,440 Speaker 1: what you should be doing about it. Of course, we're 385 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 1: looking at through the light of these three critical events, 386 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 1: and I am talking about critical event number one, massive 387 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 1: amounts of debt, deficit spending, and the fight over inflation. 388 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 1: Number two, war more war and wars after that. Number 389 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 1: three is in an election year. All right, So let's 390 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 1: sort of get down into this nitty gritty here and 391 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: let's talk about what I think is happening here. 392 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 2: All right. 393 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:55,959 Speaker 1: So, first of all, a couple things debt, inflation, and 394 00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 1: deficit spending. 395 00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 2: At this rate. 396 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 1: I'll ask you a question rhetorically and I'll answer it 397 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 1: for you. Do you think that governments will wake up 398 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 1: tomorrow and decide we're spending way too much money. Let's 399 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,400 Speaker 1: just fire a bunch of people, shut all these programs down, 400 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 1: and stop spending. What's the odds of that happening? In 401 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 1: my opinion, it's basically, I don't want to say zero, 402 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 1: nothing's impossible, but it's very highly improbable at this point. 403 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 1: There's probably less than a fraction of a point that 404 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 1: that happens at this point. At some point, you know, 405 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: you get to Argentina's level. What we can see happening 406 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,360 Speaker 1: there with me Aly. He is cutting spending because they're 407 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: forced to. We've seen in Greece they go bankrupt, they're 408 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: forced into some austerity. The United States is a long 409 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,160 Speaker 1: way from that. So I don't see the deficit spending 410 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 1: slowing down. 411 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 2: Now. 412 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,959 Speaker 1: I predict that the governm will continue to spend. I 413 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,239 Speaker 1: predict that they that the United States will add at 414 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: least three trillion dollars to the federal debt this year. Now, 415 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: let's just put that into perspective. From the founding of 416 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 1: the United States until I think the first one hundred 417 00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: and ninety five years it took to get at one 418 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:02,800 Speaker 1: trillion dollars worth of debt, So one hundred and ninety 419 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 1: five years of the country. Now, let's just say that 420 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 1: money back then was a lot different than it is today, 421 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,239 Speaker 1: so it would be even more. But one, it took 422 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 1: two hundred andine five years to get to one trillion 423 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 1: of debt. Then I think it took about ten years 424 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: to get the next trillion. I'm predicting that we get 425 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 1: at least three trillion dollars of debt. Now, if we 426 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 1: get our recession or the war breaks out, it's going 427 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:28,400 Speaker 1: to get even higher. So I'll get to where those 428 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,119 Speaker 1: predictions are next. And I guess that sort of already 429 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 1: answered that. 430 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 2: But I think the. 431 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 1: Government keep spending. I think deficit spending keeps up. I 432 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 1: think three trillion dollars of debt is added. And I 433 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 1: think that the Fed is going to be lowering rates 434 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 1: a little bit more aggressively than most people think. The 435 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: odds are there. I think they're protecting three rate cuts. 436 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 2: I think we'll. 437 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 1: Probably see at least six rate cuts. They're going to 438 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:52,879 Speaker 1: lower rates. The government's going to keep spending, and that 439 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 1: is going to push inflation higher. And you might say, 440 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: but Mark, I thought they're trying to fight inflation. Well 441 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 1: they are, but they have to choose between inflation and 442 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,960 Speaker 1: deflation meaning asset prices crashing and the whole system falling apart, 443 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: or you have to deal with more inflation. They're going 444 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 1: to choose more inflation every time, so they'll lie about it. 445 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: They'll change the way they calculated, they'll change the numbers. 446 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, in twenty twenty three, part 447 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,159 Speaker 1: of the reason why people were off is pretty much 448 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: every report that the BLS, the Bureau Laboratistics put out 449 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,880 Speaker 1: instead of BLS was just called BS. All the data 450 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:27,959 Speaker 1: they put out was benefit of the doubt. It was wrong. 451 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,919 Speaker 1: It all got revised so they'd publish it, and then 452 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 1: a month later they go, oh, we're going to revise 453 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 1: the data. 454 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 2: It was wrong. 455 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 1: They are either so incompetent they couldn't get the right 456 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 1: data out, which is possible, but I think it was 457 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 1: intentionally put out wrong to get the headlines, and then 458 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: they change it when nobody was paying attention. So they'll 459 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: change the way the calculation is, which is actually part 460 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:49,400 Speaker 1: of the reason why I made that video in January. 461 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 1: I said, hey, they've changed the way they've calculated the CPI. 462 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:53,640 Speaker 1: This will give them the cover they need to pivot. 463 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,159 Speaker 1: So I predict three trillion dollars of debt added. I 464 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,680 Speaker 1: predict more inflation. I predict at least six rate cuts 465 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 1: by the and that will kick up inflation, and that 466 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 1: will keep the economy going. Now, what about the economy, Well, 467 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 1: I predict that the economy will probably be pretty bumpy. 468 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 2: I think we'll see. 469 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 1: The labor force stay pretty well intact. I think the 470 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 1: wages will probably will slow down. The wage growth has 471 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:21,639 Speaker 1: been pretty strong through two thousand and three, which is 472 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,680 Speaker 1: what a lot of people missed. It's why the recession 473 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 1: didn't happen. So I think we'll see the economy doing 474 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,159 Speaker 1: pretty well. As far as the war, it could be 475 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 1: my I don't know, it could be my optimism. I 476 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 1: am an optimist here. I want it to be and 477 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 1: I'm optimistic. I think the war sort of continues to 478 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: be these types of squirmishes, and we stay in this 479 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 1: perpetual war state. And again maybe it's just my optimistic 480 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 1: and my maybe navity. I don't see like this escalating 481 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,679 Speaker 1: into nuclear war, but I do see it continuing. I 482 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 1: do see these squirmishes continuing. I do see this globe, 483 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,640 Speaker 1: the centralization of this globalism continue to break apart, which 484 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 1: means that shipping is going to be more expensive. We're 485 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,439 Speaker 1: going to continue to have squirmishes. We have to continue 486 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 1: to reroute again around the Red Sea, reroute around the 487 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 1: Panama Canal. You know, probably still dealing with Russia and 488 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: China situation. And so these wars will continue to push 489 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 1: deficits spending higher, and will continue to push consumer price 490 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 1: inflation higher because of increased cost things like that, supply 491 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 1: chains and breaking down and things like that. What else 492 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,159 Speaker 1: do we predict well, let's see. I also think that 493 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 1: when we look back to sort of assets and things 494 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: like that in the equities, let's start there, so stocks, equities, 495 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: things like that. Twenty twenty three was a gangbuster year. 496 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,639 Speaker 1: It did really, really well, which is part of the 497 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,199 Speaker 1: reason why I don't want to say I told you so, 498 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,439 Speaker 1: but you know, part of the reason why I was 499 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 1: continuing to say to stay in it because I knew 500 00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 1: the FED was easy and we saw it. We could 501 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: we could see exactly what they are doing. And the 502 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,880 Speaker 1: problem is when you miss out on these types of moves, 503 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 1: it can impact your portfolio sort of for the rest 504 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 1: of your life. I mean, if you missed the best 505 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:13,919 Speaker 1: ten days out of like the last you know, thirty 506 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 1: forty years of the market, your returns basically went to zero. 507 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:21,119 Speaker 1: And we saw the market move up this year, was 508 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,800 Speaker 1: it almost you know, last year twenty twenty three, he 509 00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:26,919 Speaker 1: moved up about twenty six percent. The S and P 510 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,120 Speaker 1: five hundred did, and that was a big impulse move. 511 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to see another twenty six percent. 512 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 1: I think we'll see mostly volatility and sideways chop in 513 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 1: the equity markets. Overall, the magnificent seven if you will. 514 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 1: The tech stocks, they're already starting to falter, and I 515 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: don't think we'll see that big growth. I think this 516 00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,199 Speaker 1: these wars and the supply chain will will affect that. 517 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,359 Speaker 1: But in other parts of the market, I think it's 518 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: going to do very well. As a matter of fact, 519 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 1: in the real estate market, now, I say all the time, 520 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:56,160 Speaker 1: markets are there's no such thing as the market. There's 521 00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: thousands of markets broken down by size, type, location, et cetera. 522 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,880 Speaker 1: For example, real estate in Austin, Texas has been very 523 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,439 Speaker 1: very weak, but in some parts of Florida, like Tampa, 524 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,640 Speaker 1: it's held it very very well. Seattle has been very bad, 525 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 1: right but even within that area. So I do have 526 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,159 Speaker 1: property outside of Austin, and some parts of Austin have 527 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 1: done very very bad, and some parts of Austin have 528 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,640 Speaker 1: actually done pretty well. So even within that market, there's 529 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,719 Speaker 1: differences there. But overall, I think real estate is going 530 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,879 Speaker 1: to outperform most people's expectations. And part of the reason 531 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 1: why I believe that is I expect mortgage rates to 532 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 1: drop probably into the fives. I think we'll get mortgage 533 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,040 Speaker 1: rates back into the fives. And what's gonna happen is 534 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,400 Speaker 1: gonna unleash a whole bunch of. 535 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 2: Pent up demand. 536 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, I just had one of 537 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 1: the most recognized names nationally for real estate on my 538 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 1: show and we talked about this exactly. If you'd like 539 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 1: to hear that interview where we literally break down why 540 00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:50,919 Speaker 1: it didn't crash and what he expects. It's all part 541 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 1: of this twenty twenty fourth thing I'm doing. If you 542 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,440 Speaker 1: want to go watch that interview and see what I think, 543 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:58,600 Speaker 1: go to go dot onemarkmass dot com, Slash twenty twenty four, 544 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: Go dot one mark mat COM's last twenty twenty four. 545 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,199 Speaker 1: But I think we talked about that there's all this 546 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 1: pent up demand nobody was buying, and as soon as 547 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: rates start dropping, they're going to go buy. So I 548 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 1: think housing overall rebounds, not probably large multi family commercial, 549 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 1: but definitely in the residential space. Like I said, equity 550 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,159 Speaker 1: is probably some lackluster years, but I think there's some 551 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:21,959 Speaker 1: sectors of equities that are going to do very well. 552 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,199 Speaker 1: So for example, I think homestocks will do very well. 553 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,120 Speaker 1: I think those going to rebound very well. Also, I'm 554 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,480 Speaker 1: very bullish this year on what the commodity sector is 555 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,359 Speaker 1: going to do so. Commodity that's energy, natural gas, oil, 556 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:36,320 Speaker 1: I think those rebound. Uranium. I think it's going to 557 00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 1: be a big year for uranium. We did very well 558 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,119 Speaker 1: in uranium, took some profits. I think we'll reenter that. 559 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:42,920 Speaker 1: I think gold and silver is probably gonna be a 560 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 1: big year for gold and silver, and so those are commodities, 561 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 1: but we can also play the equities. So we can 562 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,760 Speaker 1: buy the physical. I can buy physical gold, but then 563 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: I can buy gold producers and miners, and so I 564 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,359 Speaker 1: can buy the equity. So in the equities of those commodities, 565 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 1: I expect them to do well. So I'll be buying 566 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: stocks around those energy, natural gas, oil, uranium, gold, physical. 567 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 2: Things like that. 568 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:10,199 Speaker 1: For bitcoin, I believe bitcoin continues to escalate this year, 569 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 1: continues to climb higher. As we're going into this having cycle. 570 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 1: I think bitcoin will probably go up by at least 571 00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:20,479 Speaker 1: another thirty to forty percent from where it's at today 572 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,199 Speaker 1: just for the year. I think it will double probably 573 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 1: in the next year and a half. Write that down 574 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,560 Speaker 1: fact toock me on that. But of course, like I said, 575 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,960 Speaker 1: a lot of these commodities energy, natural gas, uranium, gold, silver, 576 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 1: and things like that. 577 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:36,879 Speaker 2: I think we will do really really well. 578 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:38,240 Speaker 1: Now, if you're just tune in, you're listening to the 579 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,119 Speaker 1: Mark Mass Show talking about my predictions for the markets 580 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 1: and the economy in twenty twenty four. I'll be back 581 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 1: with more and let you know exactly what I'm doing. 582 00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 1: After a quick break, don't go away, We're back, all right, 583 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 1: Welcome back. If you just tune in, you're listening to 584 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,480 Speaker 1: the Mark Mass Show. We're talking about why we didn't 585 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,200 Speaker 1: see the crash in the economy and the markets in 586 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,440 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, in real estate in twenty three, and 587 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:00,920 Speaker 1: what I think happens in twenty twenty four. Now, I've 588 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:02,359 Speaker 1: already thrown out a whole bunch of stuff. If you 589 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: missed it, one, go back and listen to me on 590 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,399 Speaker 1: the podcast. Just search the Mark Maus Show and your 591 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,719 Speaker 1: favorite podcast player. Or if you want to get all 592 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:10,880 Speaker 1: the charts to graphs and the assets on buying things 593 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:14,679 Speaker 1: like that, go to go dot one, Markmoss dot com, 594 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,640 Speaker 1: Go dot one, Mark Mooss dot com. Slash twenty twenty four. 595 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 1: All right, now, let's just look real quick back. Why 596 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,320 Speaker 1: were all these analysts like Harry Dent Junior wrong calling 597 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:29,640 Speaker 1: for this ninety percent drop. 598 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 2: What happened there? 599 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:36,159 Speaker 1: What about all these things that you've been hearing, like, 600 00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,960 Speaker 1: but Mark, but Mark, the yield curve, what about the 601 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 1: eield curve? The yield curve is one hundred percent correct 602 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 1: in forecasting these crashes. And don't you know that it's 603 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 1: never been this inverted or hasn't been this inverted in decades? 604 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,080 Speaker 1: And don't you see it's uninverting And shouldn't that cause 605 00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:55,400 Speaker 1: a crash? Or you might say, but Mark, whenever the fedpivots, 606 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 1: it always caused a crash, and the FED pivots coming, 607 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 1: so it should be crashing right again, It's not the 608 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 1: things that you don't know, it's the thing that you 609 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 1: absolutely know for certain. Now again, you need to go 610 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:11,200 Speaker 1: back and watch this video that I made saying that warning. 611 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 1: This time it's different. It's on my main YouTube channel, 612 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,920 Speaker 1: Mark Moss and I broke down why this time is different, 613 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,520 Speaker 1: how the FED and the central banks around the world 614 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 1: are interacting in the markets differently. Now, first of all, 615 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,000 Speaker 1: let's just talk about the pivot. They say when the 616 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 1: FED pivots markets have to crash, right, Well, what is 617 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,960 Speaker 1: the pivot? I guess depends on how to define it. 618 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 1: I would say the pivot is when I went from 619 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 1: a easing cycle, then I went to a tightening cycle, 620 00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: which is what we've been in. And then I decided 621 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 1: to get off of the tightening and go back to 622 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 1: an easing Instead of raising rates, I'm now lowering rates. 623 00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 1: For example, instead of selling treasuries, I'm now buying treasuries. Right, 624 00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 1: So I've pivoted my position. That's the pivot. 625 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 2: Now. 626 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 1: What happened historically is the FED has been very reactionary. 627 00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:57,040 Speaker 1: So in two thousand and eight, when we had the 628 00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 1: Great financial crash, they saw the housing market start melting down, 629 00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 1: like thirty months, over two years before anything was done. 630 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,120 Speaker 1: Bear Stearns went bankrupt, which sort of was the trigger 631 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 1: for this entire collapse. A lot of people would pin 632 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 1: it on that it took them seven months to get 633 00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,000 Speaker 1: any type of a bailout together for the banks, and 634 00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 1: in that time, in that seven months, the whole system 635 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 1: melted down. Fast forward in twenty twenty three when we 636 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 1: had three banks collapse, Silicon Valley Bank, First Trust. I 637 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,640 Speaker 1: don't have all written down, sorry, but we saw three 638 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 1: banks collapse, which was bigger then the banks collapsing in 639 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight. The FED interaction was only six 640 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 1: days away. So in two thousand and seven it took 641 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:40,640 Speaker 1: seven months, and in that seven months the whole system 642 00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 1: melted down. In twenty twenty three, it was six days. 643 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 1: And so you can see how different it is. And 644 00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,640 Speaker 1: so back to this when the FED pivots, and so 645 00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:51,840 Speaker 1: what happened is the FED has been traditionally very slow 646 00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:55,080 Speaker 1: to react, and so what happens is the FED was 647 00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,280 Speaker 1: raising rates and then all of a sudden, the markets 648 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:01,200 Speaker 1: and the economy started crashing, and the FED waited. 649 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:02,600 Speaker 2: They waited, they waited, they waited. 650 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 1: And then they finally said, oh, shoot, we should do something, 651 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,280 Speaker 1: and so they pivot. But the problem is they pivoted 652 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,160 Speaker 1: way too late, and so it wasn't the pivot that 653 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:14,520 Speaker 1: caused the crash. They pivoted because the crash was already 654 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,959 Speaker 1: showing and they did too little, too late. And so 655 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 1: what most people get wrong with that whole when the 656 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 1: pivot comes the markets crash is causality versus commonality. Right, 657 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 1: they didn't cause it, it's just happened to be in 658 00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,880 Speaker 1: common But see the way that they're interacting is different 659 00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 1: today is now they're preemptively moving, they're preemptively acting As 660 00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 1: a matter of fact, the FED has gone around and 661 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,640 Speaker 1: opened up swap lines with all these different countries. So 662 00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 1: you don't even have to let us know. If you're 663 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 1: gett do a problem, you don't have to apply for credit. 664 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 1: Here's a credit card right now. If you get into trouble. 665 00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 2: It's like what I do with my kids. Here's a 666 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 2: credit card. If you ggin into trouble, you can use this. 667 00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 1: And so that's why I think this whole pivot thing 668 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,000 Speaker 1: causing a crash is a little bit outdated. They didn't 669 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 1: understand the mechanisms supplying to maam. Now what about the 670 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 1: old curve? So the yield curve basically tells us that 671 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 1: the way it should be is that shorter term money 672 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 1: should be cheaper, longer term money should be more expensive. 673 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 1: If I want to borrow money till tomorrow, you might 674 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:15,920 Speaker 1: give it to me for free a or twenty bucks. 675 00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 1: Get me back to mow. If I want to borrow 676 00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: you know, if I want to borrow a thousand dollars 677 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 1: for five years, you're probably gonna want a return on that, right. 678 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 1: So the longer that I want to borrow the money for, 679 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 1: the more return you're gonna want that's the way it 680 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 1: should work. That's just human nature. The yield curve inverting 681 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 1: is when short term money is more expensive than long 682 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:39,320 Speaker 1: term money, which is kind of weird. Shouldn't work that way, 683 00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:41,440 Speaker 1: which is exactly the anomaly that most people. 684 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:41,600 Speaker 2: Pick up on. 685 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 1: So they say, this is a problem. The market has 686 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 1: completely mispriced it. The short term money should not be 687 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,960 Speaker 1: more expensive than short term money, and so that is 688 00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: going to cause a crash. Now, again, commonality or cause out, 689 00:32:55,760 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 1: You have to understand this, Why would that happen? Well, 690 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:05,560 Speaker 1: so the thinking goes that, well, what's happening is there 691 00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 1: must be a massive crash and recession coming in the 692 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:14,160 Speaker 1: future that will then force the Fed to lower rates. 693 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:19,040 Speaker 1: So what they're doing by pricing future money cheaper, they're 694 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 1: predicting that in the future money. 695 00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 2: Will be cheaper. 696 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:24,520 Speaker 1: The Fed will have brought the price of down. And 697 00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:27,600 Speaker 1: why would they bring it down because something happened. But again, 698 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:33,440 Speaker 1: that's commonality, not causality. Okay, so right now we're not 699 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:37,640 Speaker 1: seeing that same metric. They're they're implying that the price 700 00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:39,719 Speaker 1: of money will be cheaper in the future because there 701 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 1: will be a crash that will then force the Fed 702 00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,120 Speaker 1: to raise rates or lower rates. However, what we're seeing 703 00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:47,400 Speaker 1: today is something different. The FED is actually lowering rates 704 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 1: and we're not having a crash. Remember, it's not the 705 00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,480 Speaker 1: things that you don't know, it's the things you know 706 00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:53,920 Speaker 1: for certain. 707 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:55,120 Speaker 2: So here we have. 708 00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,400 Speaker 1: It's blowing everybody's minds. The FED is lowering rates. 709 00:33:58,440 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 2: Why would they do that? 710 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,719 Speaker 1: Why would they lower rates when we're not having a crash? 711 00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,240 Speaker 1: All right now, So those are a couple things. I 712 00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,359 Speaker 1: just want to disprove those things. I believe deficit spending 713 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:12,480 Speaker 1: will continue to push markets higher. I believe that the 714 00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,719 Speaker 1: war will continue to push the deficit spending. And I 715 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:16,400 Speaker 1: think in the election here they're going to continue to 716 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:20,279 Speaker 1: keep printing. Now in Q four of twenty twenty four, 717 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,960 Speaker 1: things could change we get past the election, and there's 718 00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,800 Speaker 1: any number of things that could cause this to go haywire. 719 00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:27,400 Speaker 1: So let me tell you things that you should be 720 00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,080 Speaker 1: watching now. If you want to get this whole presentation 721 00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:32,239 Speaker 1: with all my charts, my graphs, and more importantly, my 722 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,840 Speaker 1: indicators that I'm watching and the assets that I'm buying, 723 00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:38,160 Speaker 1: you probably want to know all that. Go to go 724 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 1: dot one Markmoss dot com Slash twenty twenty four. Again, 725 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 1: that's go dot one, Markmoss dot com slash twenty twenty four. 726 00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:51,120 Speaker 1: All right, now let's talk about that. So what could you. 727 00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:52,399 Speaker 2: Lose if you don't do this. 728 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,319 Speaker 1: First of all, you can sit in cash all year, 729 00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,240 Speaker 1: but if the market moves up another ten twenty thirty percent, 730 00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,560 Speaker 1: you're going to lose that. I think at least you're 731 00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:02,799 Speaker 1: gonna lose ten percent. I think, regardless of what the 732 00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,719 Speaker 1: Fed and Treasury or BLS want to tell you, I 733 00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,160 Speaker 1: think we're gona have at least ten percent debasement. So 734 00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:09,879 Speaker 1: you're gonna lose at least ten percent on your cash 735 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,799 Speaker 1: if you do nothing. Now, some people are saying the 736 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,920 Speaker 1: market could crash by ninety percent, so you might say, well, 737 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,080 Speaker 1: I could lose ninety percent Mark, Yeah, but you could 738 00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,839 Speaker 1: also use stop losses, so you could not lose ninety 739 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:22,680 Speaker 1: percent even if the market does. And as a matter 740 00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 1: of fact, if the market does drop ninety percent, we 741 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,120 Speaker 1: can put shorts on the market and we can actually 742 00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,560 Speaker 1: make money on the way down. So you're not a tree. 743 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,759 Speaker 1: You don't you can move. And this is part of 744 00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,239 Speaker 1: the reason why I talk about like passive invested in 745 00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,640 Speaker 1: investing is dead right now now you have to be 746 00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:39,360 Speaker 1: tactically managing your portfolio. 747 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:41,040 Speaker 2: All right, but what could you gain? 748 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,400 Speaker 1: Well, I think there's gonna be several triple baggers that 749 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,279 Speaker 1: are happening. I think they're gonna happen in the energy space, 750 00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:46,919 Speaker 1: They're gonna happen in the gold mining space, and they're 751 00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,200 Speaker 1: gonna happen in the crypto space. We're gonna have multiple 752 00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:50,960 Speaker 1: positions that go up by more than one hundred percent, 753 00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,600 Speaker 1: so you could miss out on those. What you should 754 00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 1: be what should you be watching? Well, I think the 755 00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,279 Speaker 1: yield curve is broken. I wouldn't be paying a lot 756 00:35:58,280 --> 00:35:59,640 Speaker 1: of attention to that. Would I be paying attention to 757 00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:01,920 Speaker 1: it would be employment data. I want to look at 758 00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:03,560 Speaker 1: weekly job claims. I want to look at them on 759 00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,719 Speaker 1: a four week average, because when people are working, it's 760 00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:08,680 Speaker 1: pretty hard to have a recession. Two, I want to 761 00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,200 Speaker 1: look at wage growth. If wages are going up, that 762 00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,400 Speaker 1: means businesses are making money and people are working and 763 00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,160 Speaker 1: they're spending money. I'm also going to look at the SEP. 764 00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:21,200 Speaker 1: It's the Fed Summary of Economic Projections, and that's basically 765 00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,960 Speaker 1: the economy is where they're projecting the economy either slowing 766 00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,960 Speaker 1: or growing. I want to look at PCE personal Consumption 767 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:31,319 Speaker 1: Index that measures spending, and I want to keep an 768 00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:35,200 Speaker 1: eye on FED policy and their willingness to intervene in markets. 769 00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:37,439 Speaker 1: If you want the full breakdown and what I'm doing 770 00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,799 Speaker 1: about this, what I'm buying in this, and actually these 771 00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 1: indicators go to go dot one Markmoss dot com slash 772 00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, Go dot one, Markmoss dot com slash 773 00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:52,000 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. But that's my predictions. Yes, continue, war 774 00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:56,040 Speaker 1: doesn't escalate, increased government debt three trilling at least this year, 775 00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,400 Speaker 1: pushes asset prices hire specifically the ones I just mentioned. 776 00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,400 Speaker 1: Overall equities I'm not a big fan of, but I 777 00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:04,359 Speaker 1: think around the commodity sector is going to do very 778 00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,560 Speaker 1: very well. I think real estate bounces. But let me 779 00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:08,480 Speaker 1: know what you think. Hit me up on social media 780 00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:10,040 Speaker 1: at one Mark Moss, let me know what you think. 781 00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,319 Speaker 1: We're leaving in the comments on the show, and that's 782 00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,319 Speaker 1: what I got. Thanks so much for listening. Until next time,