WEBVTT - Intel Gets Multibillion-Dollar Apollo Offer as Qualcomm Circles

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg business

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<v Speaker 1>Week Inside from the reporters and editors who bring you

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<v Speaker 1>tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer

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<v Speaker 1>and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio, we gotta.

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<v Speaker 2>Talk a bit more about Intel.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm looking at a two day game because we've got

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<v Speaker 3>a headline late Friday before the close. But you're looking

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<v Speaker 3>at Intel shares now up about seven percent in the

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<v Speaker 3>past to trading days, and so we're trying to figure

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<v Speaker 3>out what comes next for Intel.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, look, we're talking about this Bloomberg exclusive on

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<v Speaker 5>Apollo Global Manager that's throwing it's it's hat and a

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<v Speaker 5>potential financial investment into the Intel ring as well. So

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<v Speaker 5>lots of just scotts, let's bring in Leanna Baker is

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<v Speaker 5>Managing editor of the Bloomberg News Deals team here in

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<v Speaker 5>the studio. Great to see you, and from our San

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<v Speaker 5>Francisco bureau, Ian King, Bloomberg News US Semiconductor and Networking

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<v Speaker 5>reporter Ian I want to start with you in tell

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<v Speaker 5>very popular all of a sudden among all these entities

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<v Speaker 5>let's talk about Qualcom and it's interest what you find out.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I mean we have to sort of point out

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<v Speaker 6>that neither company is confirmed or said anything publicly about this,

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<v Speaker 6>So at this point we're relying upon our own reporting

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<v Speaker 6>and everybody else is reporting. Our understanding is that there

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<v Speaker 6>has been some conversation at some kind of level about

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<v Speaker 6>the possibility of acquiring Intel, and you know, to sort

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<v Speaker 6>of flip it back to what you guys were saying,

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<v Speaker 6>Intel is kind of at a historically sort of vulnerable

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<v Speaker 6>point in terms of obviously share price, in terms of

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<v Speaker 6>where its operations are. Its management believe that it's at

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<v Speaker 6>kind of a low point before a big upswing that

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<v Speaker 6>it's had to spend really heavily. Others are less sanguine

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<v Speaker 6>about this, are sorry, are more worried about where it

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<v Speaker 6>is and worried that perhaps it would be better it

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<v Speaker 6>would be better off in other hands.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's kind of fascinating to figure out what's the

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<v Speaker 3>right way forward, as you have reported on so well,

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<v Speaker 3>in that this has been long and coming. When it

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<v Speaker 3>comes to Intel, Leanna, I want to bring you back

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<v Speaker 3>into this. There's the Apollo story that you guys.

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<v Speaker 2>Have put out there. At Bloombery Exclusive.

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<v Speaker 3>What do we know about a possible deal where Apollo

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<v Speaker 3>makes a pretty substantial investment.

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<v Speaker 7>Apollo is already a partner of Intel. Remember they have

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<v Speaker 7>a joint venture with Intel in their factory in Ireland,

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<v Speaker 7>So it's not surprising that Apollo would put their hat

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<v Speaker 7>in the ring. That said, we don't know if Intel's

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<v Speaker 7>going to accept this investment. We heard it's up to

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<v Speaker 7>five billion. We don't have any terms. We said it's

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<v Speaker 7>an equity like investment. We don't know if it comes

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<v Speaker 7>with a board seat or what Apollo would ask for

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<v Speaker 7>to make this cash infusion. But it does show that

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<v Speaker 7>Intel's board has some tough decisions to make on which

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<v Speaker 7>path forward. Does it go with Qualcomm, does it go

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<v Speaker 7>with Apollo, Could it go with Apollo and then still

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<v Speaker 7>you know, go with Qualcom. One thing we know for sure, Broadcom,

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<v Speaker 7>which is another name in the space which analysts have tipped,

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<v Speaker 7>is another potential acquirir of Intel. We've reported that currently

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<v Speaker 7>they're not evaluating an offer.

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<v Speaker 2>For I'm curious about Apollo.

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<v Speaker 3>Is this about protecting its investment already in Intel, or

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<v Speaker 3>is it because they're really interested and they see something here?

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<v Speaker 7>Further Paulo is definitely opportunistic and they love to get

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<v Speaker 7>their hands in really complicated situations. They're also turnaround specialists

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<v Speaker 7>and they have some experience in semiconductors. Last year they

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<v Speaker 7>put in about nine hundred million into Western Digital, which

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<v Speaker 7>is another sort of struggling chip maker right now, Apollo

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<v Speaker 7>though it has you know, it's work cut out for

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<v Speaker 7>them if they do take this investment. How much influence

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<v Speaker 7>will they have an Intel, which has its own management team,

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<v Speaker 7>and Apollo might have its own interest too on making

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<v Speaker 7>sure their investment, you know, makes money.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, look, it's also an indication of obviously

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<v Speaker 5>how excited Apollo are about chip makers as well. I mean,

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<v Speaker 5>is there are their prospects they're going to want to

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<v Speaker 5>go further in other places.

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<v Speaker 7>For now, all we know is that they're an investor

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<v Speaker 7>in Western Digital, and they're an investor and joint venture

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<v Speaker 7>partner and Intel, and they're looking to to do more

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<v Speaker 7>with Intel. But we should also consider that they're an

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<v Speaker 7>American investor, and that's something that's really important here. We

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<v Speaker 7>didn't talk about the US government angle, so I'm sure

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<v Speaker 7>the US government would like to see some sort of

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<v Speaker 7>US solution to this without a foreign investor. And another

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<v Speaker 7>thing to mention is that any investment from Apollo or

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<v Speaker 7>someone similar would close a lot faster than a long

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<v Speaker 7>drawn out merger with a rival like Qualcott. That's something

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<v Speaker 7>that's going to take a long time to play out,

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<v Speaker 7>even if they do get to the finish line.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, So Ian, come on back in here.

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<v Speaker 3>This is something we've talked about a lot with you

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<v Speaker 3>about the national security concerns and why this is such

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<v Speaker 3>an important company, certainly to the US government. How are

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<v Speaker 3>you You've covered this company for so long and it's

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<v Speaker 3>kind of amazing to see where we are with this

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<v Speaker 3>company right now. How are you thinking about the different

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<v Speaker 3>parties that are interested about Intel's future and what happens

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<v Speaker 3>from here and what you are hearing internally from the company.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I mean it's a very complicated situation. As Honor

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<v Speaker 6>has just alluded to. It's not just a case of

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<v Speaker 6>two companies looking at each other and sort of deciding

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<v Speaker 6>whether it makes sense for them to do this, even Intel,

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<v Speaker 6>there are multiple parts to Intel. Whether perhaps qualt Com

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<v Speaker 6>would just be interested in Intel's design efforts, which would

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<v Speaker 6>get it into the PC market, which would get it

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<v Speaker 6>into the server market. Qualcomm historically has said absolutely no

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<v Speaker 6>way do we want to become a manufacturing company. So

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<v Speaker 6>if that's still the case, then what happens to Intel's

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<v Speaker 6>manufacturing operations? And that's where the US government has a

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<v Speaker 6>massive interest in bringing back manufacturing to this country, revitalizing

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<v Speaker 6>manufacturing in this country. And then guess what, There's a

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<v Speaker 6>country called China out there which has a massive say

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<v Speaker 6>in this as well. China is the largest market for

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<v Speaker 6>so may conductors. Both Intel and Qualcomm do a huge

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<v Speaker 6>amount of business there. China is going to have an

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<v Speaker 6>absolute say when it comes to approving this kind of

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<v Speaker 6>a deal.

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<v Speaker 5>But does that mean then, in to that point that

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<v Speaker 5>the Apollo deal looks much simpler if you're pack Elsinger

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<v Speaker 5>and try to make you know a kind of a

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<v Speaker 5>decision or think about where to go with this as well,

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<v Speaker 5>does it make an Apollo move much clearer and simpler

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<v Speaker 5>and less of the anti trust concerns and others that

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<v Speaker 5>you've outlined.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I mean it's a much much smaller deal. And

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<v Speaker 6>really all it essentially would be doing, if it's at

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<v Speaker 6>the level that we understand it is, will be to

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<v Speaker 6>sort of prop up the current plan. Basically, all of

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<v Speaker 6>these investments and Intel has been bringing in into its

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<v Speaker 6>factories from Apollo, from others are essentially bridge loans. Basically,

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<v Speaker 6>it's saying, hey, we're going to build this factory. Help

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<v Speaker 6>us out to build it out, and we'll pay you

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<v Speaker 6>back with the profits we get from it later. Intel

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<v Speaker 6>retains control in these kind of situations. Five billion dollars

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<v Speaker 6>is a lot of money, but it's not in the

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<v Speaker 6>chip business, right, plant cost twenty Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>It goes really quickly. Right, Hey, you know, I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's kind of interesting.

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<v Speaker 3>There's another story in the Bloomberg about TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductor

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<v Speaker 3>and Samsung discussing building major new factories in the UAE.

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<v Speaker 2>This is coming from the Wall Street Journal.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think about this story. It's Intel specific, but

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<v Speaker 3>there's so much going on globally in the semi space

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<v Speaker 3>as other companies are kind of figuring out their path

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<v Speaker 3>going forward. When it comes to Intel in what is

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<v Speaker 3>the value beyond the national security concerns?

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<v Speaker 2>Is it that.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a maker of chips a designer of chips? Like,

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<v Speaker 3>where is the real value going forward?

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<v Speaker 2>Or both?

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<v Speaker 6>Absolutely?

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<v Speaker 4>Both?

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<v Speaker 6>Right, it's diminished as a franchise in PCs, but it's

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<v Speaker 6>still seventy five eighty five percent of the market. It's

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<v Speaker 6>diminished in servers, but it's still eighty percent of the market.

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<v Speaker 6>So those are incredible franchises with the right products. Maybe

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<v Speaker 6>they revitalize, maybe then ever get back to ninety nine percent,

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<v Speaker 6>which they've been at. But eighty percent of a market

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<v Speaker 6>isn't a bad position to be in if you can

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<v Speaker 6>do that in a profitable way. It's factories up until

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<v Speaker 6>not too long ago were the best in the industry. Okay,

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<v Speaker 6>if you can throw the capital at them, if you

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<v Speaker 6>can get the volume the orders, maybe it becomes a

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<v Speaker 6>valuable and absolutely essential asset again. So it's not dead yet, right,

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, we're talking about picking over the bones, but

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<v Speaker 6>it's not dead yet.

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<v Speaker 5>How much should we be thinking about other players in

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<v Speaker 5>this sector as well? I mean Broadcom sitting on the

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<v Speaker 5>sidelines for now. Is there any chance anything is going

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<v Speaker 5>to get exciting for Broadcom when we're thinking about this feature?

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, the best person to ask will be hot Time,

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<v Speaker 6>the CEO. He was asked out recently on his earnings

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<v Speaker 6>and he said, look, I'm quite happy trying to you know,

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<v Speaker 6>make VMware. The acquisition they made work a couple of

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<v Speaker 6>years before I'll be the other side of that. And

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<v Speaker 6>he had a big smile on his face figuratively when

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<v Speaker 6>he was saying this, because they were asking him, Hey,

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<v Speaker 6>are you interested, so he was basically saying, not right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, come on back in here. I am curious.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm sure you had a pretty busy weekend, which always

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<v Speaker 3>happens with the M and A activity and the M

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<v Speaker 3>and A world. What are you hearing from other bankers

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<v Speaker 3>or other bankers kind of wait a minute, we've got

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<v Speaker 3>to be talking to our clients like there's other things

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<v Speaker 3>that might pop up.

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<v Speaker 7>It's funny, there's two counts of bankers, it seems, around

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<v Speaker 7>the situation. There's either the ones working on this deal

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<v Speaker 7>who don't want to talk to us and aren't answering

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<v Speaker 7>their phones, and then there's the ones that are chasing

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<v Speaker 7>this trying to get hired. And then there's the ones

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<v Speaker 7>we're sitting on the sidelines who are saying, Okay, this

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<v Speaker 7>is a really you know, funky deal, Intel, I don't

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<v Speaker 7>know if I want to spend the time on this.

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<v Speaker 7>If you know, it doesn't happen. Qualcomm's other big M

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<v Speaker 7>and A bets never panned out. You might recall they

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<v Speaker 7>bought NX, They tried to buy NXP a few years

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<v Speaker 7>ago and that died. They're going through their own a

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<v Speaker 7>little bit of a transformation to M and A is

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<v Speaker 7>just really hard for some inductor companies. Intel tried to

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<v Speaker 7>buy a company called Tower, which also fell apart when

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<v Speaker 7>the Chinese authorities kind of left it in limbo. So

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<v Speaker 7>it's just a really tough space and you have to

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<v Speaker 7>know where to invest your time if you're an investment banker,

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<v Speaker 7>to see you know which bets are going to pay off,

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<v Speaker 7>because in chips it's been really difficult.

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<v Speaker 5>But it's interesting, isn't it, given that the movement we've

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<v Speaker 5>seen in share prices in this sector as well, This

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<v Speaker 5>is clearly very hot property and you kind of think

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<v Speaker 5>that could spur further deals down the line. Or is

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<v Speaker 5>it more of a case that we're looking at these

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<v Speaker 5>individual big names defying their positions.

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<v Speaker 7>Ian would know more about why Intel is a unique

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<v Speaker 7>situation right now. I think their earnings report in the

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<v Speaker 7>summer and what's been happening the past few years has

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<v Speaker 7>made them has made them vulnerable. As he said to

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<v Speaker 7>different you know, M and A overtures the other deals

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<v Speaker 7>in the semiconductor space have been a lot smaller and

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<v Speaker 7>video we've reported does acquisitions, but you know, not that large,

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<v Speaker 7>and they usually do still attract scrutiny from regulators. So

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<v Speaker 7>these companies are so big that whatever they do, even

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<v Speaker 7>if it's a small tuck in acquisition, it's going to

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<v Speaker 7>get some attention when.

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<v Speaker 5>It comes to the regulatory concerns here, because it's something

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<v Speaker 5>that comes up a lot on these conversations as well,

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<v Speaker 5>is that regulators in Europe, Is it the US or

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<v Speaker 5>is it you know, coming from side of those markets.

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<v Speaker 7>It's all of the above. Actually, when you announce the

0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:48.200
<v Speaker 7>je tekature. Yeah, these companies, as Ian mentioned, are global,

0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:51.800
<v Speaker 7>but definitely China the regulator their sammer. They weigh in

0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:53.840
<v Speaker 7>on these deals or sometimes they don't weigh in at

0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:55.880
<v Speaker 7>all and they're left in limbo, and that leads to

0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:59.440
<v Speaker 7>deals dying that EU obviously will have a say, and

0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:03.800
<v Speaker 7>then we have US market and then any country where

0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:05.840
<v Speaker 7>these companies do business we'll have a say.

0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:07.880
<v Speaker 3>Hey, you know one thing I wanted to ask you Ian,

0:11:08.000 --> 0:11:10.800
<v Speaker 3>is I think about you know, AMD wasn't always as

0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:13.360
<v Speaker 3>big a threat to Intel, right, Intel was really the

0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:15.200
<v Speaker 3>big player and then I think about and video was

0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:18.640
<v Speaker 3>not always a household name. Uh, And wasn't that you

0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:20.280
<v Speaker 3>know when we bring up the semi space, wasn't the

0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:22.800
<v Speaker 3>company we always kind of is a go to companies

0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:26.640
<v Speaker 3>can reboot companies, consumer company can shift strategies, that can

0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:31.120
<v Speaker 3>do acquisitions. So I mean so can Intel likewise, Right

0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:33.400
<v Speaker 3>there is another chapter.

0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:37.680
<v Speaker 6>That's that's what the management is saying. That's what the

0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:41.280
<v Speaker 6>management believe up until now that that you know they're maintaining. Look, hey,

0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:44.000
<v Speaker 6>it's tough. It's tougher than we thought. Maybe we don't

0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:46.600
<v Speaker 6>have the right AI chips out there right now, but

0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:49.400
<v Speaker 6>you know, come on, we have so much inherent value.

0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:51.480
<v Speaker 6>We can we can do this. We can get back

0:11:51.480 --> 0:11:54.840
<v Speaker 6>to what we were, is their pitch. But the flip

0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.400
<v Speaker 6>side of that is this is a brutal business. This

0:11:57.440 --> 0:12:01.560
<v Speaker 6>is a really really difficult business, particular manufacturing. You build

0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:04.000
<v Speaker 6>these plants, you don't fill them. They drag you down.

0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:07.000
<v Speaker 6>And that is a situation that Intel is facing, and

0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:09.760
<v Speaker 6>that is why there's so much churn around. It is like,

0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:12.240
<v Speaker 6>is this the opportunity of a lifetime, Is it ever

0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:15.360
<v Speaker 6>going to be this cheap again? Or maybe this is

0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:19.320
<v Speaker 6>Intel on a downward spiral, and there are lots and

0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:22.720
<v Speaker 6>lots of opinions. And that explains what Leander just said, Well,

0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:25.160
<v Speaker 6>how the bankers are viewing it, how Wall Street is

0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:27.200
<v Speaker 6>viewing it. They can't nobody can make their mind up

0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:30.400
<v Speaker 6>right now. All they know is the road that Intel

0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:32.520
<v Speaker 6>is on is a tough one right now. A lot

0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:33.280
<v Speaker 6>has to go right.

0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:35.400
<v Speaker 5>I mean, to that point, does that tell us that

0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:40.360
<v Speaker 5>the AWS deal wasn't as important potentially to investors as

0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:41.520
<v Speaker 5>we thought it was.

0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:46.920
<v Speaker 6>It was a brief shot in the arm. But you know,

0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:50.040
<v Speaker 6>we've seen this happen since Pat Gelsinger came back to

0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.640
<v Speaker 6>the company a few short years ago. We have these

0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:55.760
<v Speaker 6>brief moments of hope and then it becomes clear because

0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:58.640
<v Speaker 6>it is clear because it's such a tough business that yes,

0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:01.679
<v Speaker 6>it's a good sign, but the payoff is down the road,

0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:05.040
<v Speaker 6>and the payoff isn't one hundred percent certain at this point.

0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:08.160
<v Speaker 6>And that's I think this constant tension that we're seeing,

0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.560
<v Speaker 6>which is maybe they are doing the right thing, but

0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:13.319
<v Speaker 6>good grief, so many things have to go right. And

0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:15.160
<v Speaker 6>on the flip side, if you want to do a

0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:17.040
<v Speaker 6>deal for Intel, so many things have to go right.

0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:21.600
<v Speaker 6>There regulatory approval, financing everything that there's so much at

0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:25.040
<v Speaker 6>stake here. It is such a complicated situation, so difficult

0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:28.640
<v Speaker 6>for management and difficult for bankers, and difficult for regulators

0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:29.720
<v Speaker 6>who are taking a look at this.

0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:31.200
<v Speaker 2>Right we talked about checking boxes.

0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:33.600
<v Speaker 3>There's a lot that has to be checked in order

0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:35.800
<v Speaker 3>for this to something to happen, whether it's a deal

0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:37.920
<v Speaker 3>or some kind of investment. Having said that, I just

0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:40.640
<v Speaker 3>want to ask both of you, So, Leanna, what's is

0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:44.079
<v Speaker 3>there a time frame you're thinking about? You know, these

0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:47.000
<v Speaker 3>are stories that according to sources. I always feel like

0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:49.320
<v Speaker 3>with these things they may or may not happen. So

0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:51.160
<v Speaker 3>what are you thinking in terms of a time frame.

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:53.480
<v Speaker 7>There's lots to consider about what's next. But I will

0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:56.080
<v Speaker 7>say that time is the enemy of deals, So the

0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:58.240
<v Speaker 7>longer things take you or less likely they are to

0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:02.360
<v Speaker 7>get announced. But that said, there's still so much more

0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:05.960
<v Speaker 7>to report on. So we know Qualcom's made a soft approach,

0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:09.079
<v Speaker 7>but there's no official offer, So there's still maybe in

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:11.480
<v Speaker 7>the next week or so, we'll find out more about

0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:15.200
<v Speaker 7>how receptive Intel is, what was actually offered and similar

0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:18.800
<v Speaker 7>with the Apollo offer, and are there other names on

0:14:18.840 --> 0:14:22.840
<v Speaker 7>the sidelines? Intel also has a partnership with Brookfield and

0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:26.320
<v Speaker 7>other private equity infrastructure player. We haven't heard that they're

0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:29.200
<v Speaker 7>around this, but certainly now that the Apollo name is

0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:31.200
<v Speaker 7>out there, will other names come out of the woodwork

0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:31.840
<v Speaker 7>real quickly.

0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:33.960
<v Speaker 3>And so you fifteen seconds in terms of a time

0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:36.800
<v Speaker 3>frame you're thinking about for Intel, Yeah.

0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:38.840
<v Speaker 6>I mean some of these deals need to minifese quickly,

0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:41.360
<v Speaker 6>as Leanna just said, But Intel in terms of time

0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:44.160
<v Speaker 6>frame can't afford too many more, if any of the

0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.280
<v Speaker 6>kind of disastrous innings reports that we just saw, that's

0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:49.240
<v Speaker 6>going to be a hard stop for them.

0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:50.360
<v Speaker 2>All right, so appreciate it.

0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 3>A very big company story and certainly a big story

0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:55.560
<v Speaker 3>on the Bloomberg Today in king US semiconductor and networking

0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:57.920
<v Speaker 3>reporter at Bloomberg News out there in San Francisco, Leanna

0:14:57.920 --> 0:14:59.120
<v Speaker 3>Baker right here in studio.

0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:01.080
<v Speaker 2>She is managing editor of the Deals team, and you

0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:03.040
<v Speaker 2>can read more at Bloomberg dot com.

0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:07.400
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:10.680
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen

0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:14.080
<v Speaker 1>on Applecarplay and and Broyd Auto with a Bloomberg Business app,

0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:16.600
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:20.360
<v Speaker 3>Well, we highlight and on a lot about everybody moving

0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:20.840
<v Speaker 3>down south.

0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:22.800
<v Speaker 2>I've had a lot of family members move down south.

0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:26.320
<v Speaker 2>It is it's nice and warm and toasty.

0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:28.960
<v Speaker 3>But in particular, we see a lot of people going

0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:31.360
<v Speaker 3>to South Florida, financial types and more. And as a

0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:34.240
<v Speaker 3>result of that move, how that has led to soaring

0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:36.840
<v Speaker 3>prices of homes, especially among the super rich, which brings

0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:39.920
<v Speaker 3>us to a new record perhaps for the most expensive

0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:42.120
<v Speaker 3>residents in the Miami area. Let's get to it with

0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:45.640
<v Speaker 3>Danny Hertzberg Wilt at the jills Zer Group. It's a

0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:48.280
<v Speaker 3>team within the Coldwell Banker community. It has been ranked

0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.360
<v Speaker 3>by Real Trends in the Wall Street Journal as the

0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:52.800
<v Speaker 3>number one real estate team in the nation, Florida and

0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:54.560
<v Speaker 3>Miami for several years.

0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:55.880
<v Speaker 2>Including twenty twenty four.

0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:58.880
<v Speaker 3>Danny joining us from South Florida along with Bloomberg News

0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:02.040
<v Speaker 3>Markets correspondent Abigail Doolittle, who keeps an eye on the

0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:02.920
<v Speaker 3>real estate world.

0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:04.560
<v Speaker 2>She is joining us here in studio.

0:16:04.880 --> 0:16:07.800
<v Speaker 3>Hey, Danny, my understanding is you guys might have some

0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:09.480
<v Speaker 3>news for us about a big closing.

0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:11.120
<v Speaker 2>What can you tell us.

0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:13.040
<v Speaker 4>We do we have some very exciting news.

0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:16.440
<v Speaker 8>First, Thank you so much, Carol, Steven, Abigail, and Bloomberg.

0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:16.920
<v Speaker 4>For having me today.

0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.560
<v Speaker 8>We have the record sale closing today and it's the

0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:21.880
<v Speaker 8>highest sale in the history of.

0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:22.680
<v Speaker 4>Miami Dade County.

0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:26.120
<v Speaker 9>So Danny, something to ask about this sale. Not so

0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.160
<v Speaker 9>long ago, I can remember Jeff Bezos making a big purchase.

0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:31.040
<v Speaker 9>I feel like it was close to one hundred million,

0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.320
<v Speaker 9>and then Ken Griffin was a more than one hundred million.

0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:36.520
<v Speaker 9>So you're saying that this sale is more that it

0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 9>tops those well known billionaires.

0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 8>So there's only been one sale in the history of

0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:44.840
<v Speaker 8>Miami Dade County that broke one hundred million, which our

0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:46.760
<v Speaker 8>team worked on. I was very proud to see might

0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:49.160
<v Speaker 8>Mom break that record at one hundred and six million,

0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:52.200
<v Speaker 8>and this surpasses that record, So this will be the

0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:57.400
<v Speaker 8>all time highest sale. It's a very significant market update.

0:16:57.520 --> 0:16:59.560
<v Speaker 8>It tells you a lot about the story of Miami

0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:01.800
<v Speaker 8>and the growth of the city and the number of

0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.919
<v Speaker 8>billionaires and high net worth individuals moving to Miami and

0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:06.880
<v Speaker 8>all the big companies that have been coming down here.

0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:09.119
<v Speaker 9>Well, let's take into that just a little bit more, Danny,

0:17:09.160 --> 0:17:14.800
<v Speaker 9>because I know that prior to this pandemic gold rush

0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:19.320
<v Speaker 9>for real estate, the biggest sale in Miami if I

0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:21.440
<v Speaker 9>have this correctly, I think that forty seven million and

0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:23.800
<v Speaker 9>twenty fifteen, and then there was another forty seven million

0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:27.919
<v Speaker 9>sale in twenty twelve. Now forty seven million seems like nothing.

0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:29.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, it seems.

0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:34.040
<v Speaker 9>Like packaging perspective context. So has the table really been

0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:34.680
<v Speaker 9>reset here?

0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:36.320
<v Speaker 4>Absolutely?

0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:39.320
<v Speaker 8>So that forty seven million record back in twenty twelve,

0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:42.199
<v Speaker 8>which we participated and was actually on Indian Creek. So

0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:45.040
<v Speaker 8>it's very interesting that the story started there on Indian Creek,

0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:47.680
<v Speaker 8>and then the markets spread throughout the city from Star

0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.800
<v Speaker 8>Island to Gables of States North and South through Golden Beach,

0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:53.760
<v Speaker 8>and then for many years, almost a decade, you didn't

0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:56.560
<v Speaker 8>have a sale over fifty and since twenty twenty one,

0:17:57.040 --> 0:17:59.639
<v Speaker 8>we now have had eight sales over fifty million, in

0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.679
<v Speaker 8>sales over one hundred million, which is significant, right, and

0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:05.679
<v Speaker 8>the runner up sales are seventy million, seventy five million,

0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 8>ninety three million, so very significant numbers for Miami, which

0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:12.280
<v Speaker 8>puts us on par with La New York on Beach

0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:14.120
<v Speaker 8>and all the major global markets.

0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:17.880
<v Speaker 3>Danny step back, lay out this deal that you guys closed,

0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:20.120
<v Speaker 3>What is this deal? Who did it tell us about

0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:23.000
<v Speaker 3>because I believe it involved a couple of properties and

0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:23.840
<v Speaker 3>what the amount was.

0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:28.639
<v Speaker 8>So this was a significant assemblage on Laguarse Island. The

0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:31.439
<v Speaker 8>sale is just over one hundred and twenty two million total.

0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:34.280
<v Speaker 8>It was an assemblage put together by doctor Pierce over

0:18:34.320 --> 0:18:37.080
<v Speaker 8>many years. It was four properties put together one by

0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:40.480
<v Speaker 8>one and then assembled together. It took several years to

0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.320
<v Speaker 8>sell this property. It was a very complicated transaction with

0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:46.600
<v Speaker 8>many zoning elements, and we showed it some of the

0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:49.399
<v Speaker 8>most high networth individuals in the world. It's the true

0:18:49.440 --> 0:18:53.199
<v Speaker 8>trophy property of the city with downtown views and we

0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:57.719
<v Speaker 8>have a growing downtown and you know, it's exciting the market.

0:18:58.080 --> 0:18:59.560
<v Speaker 4>We're having a lot of buzz we had.

0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:02.280
<v Speaker 8>What's interesting about the sale is not just breaking one

0:19:02.359 --> 0:19:05.400
<v Speaker 8>hundred million, but to have multiple offers and backup buyers

0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:09.000
<v Speaker 8>that kind of interest is just very telling the market

0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:09.320
<v Speaker 8>we're in.

0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:11.800
<v Speaker 5>Tell us a bit about the profile of who's getting

0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:14.640
<v Speaker 5>into this market. Who's got the big and deep pockets

0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:16.679
<v Speaker 5>to be able to look at properties like this. Is

0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:19.080
<v Speaker 5>it American buyers? Are you getting overseas buyers in there

0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:19.480
<v Speaker 5>as well?

0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:21.280
<v Speaker 4>It's a great question.

0:19:21.480 --> 0:19:23.960
<v Speaker 8>So in general, these type of properties which we focus

0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:27.760
<v Speaker 8>on the overwhelming majority of buyers have been domestic, moving

0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:32.320
<v Speaker 8>from New York, Chicago, California, New Jersey, high tax states,

0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:36.240
<v Speaker 8>really moving to Florida with no state income tax, and

0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:39.040
<v Speaker 8>that's been the trend. A very small percentage have been

0:19:39.040 --> 0:19:42.000
<v Speaker 8>in international buyers. But when I look through the list

0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:46.359
<v Speaker 8>of the largest, most significant purchases, the record breaking sales,

0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:47.880
<v Speaker 8>they've really been domestic buyers.

0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:50.320
<v Speaker 9>Okay, so Dana, you have all of these people who

0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:53.040
<v Speaker 9>wanted to buy this property for more than one hundred

0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:55.520
<v Speaker 9>and twenty two million dollars. And I should mention it's

0:19:55.520 --> 0:19:57.720
<v Speaker 9>not for the properties, it's for the land. So these

0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:01.560
<v Speaker 9>people buy these properties is knocked down the homes for

0:20:01.600 --> 0:20:02.880
<v Speaker 9>the land, and then rebuild.

0:20:03.080 --> 0:20:05.080
<v Speaker 2>This is a teardown. Yeah, this is a teardown.

0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:06.840
<v Speaker 9>This is a teardown, one hundred and twenty two million

0:20:06.880 --> 0:20:07.560
<v Speaker 9>dollar teardown.

0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:08.520
<v Speaker 2>But where do all.

0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:13.199
<v Speaker 9>Those other buyers go? Surely your pipeline is stuffed? What

0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:15.040
<v Speaker 9>can you tell us about the next big sale?

0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:18.480
<v Speaker 8>So we've been working on it. It's complicated because this

0:20:18.520 --> 0:20:21.680
<v Speaker 8>is the true trophy property. So finding the next best

0:20:21.720 --> 0:20:24.560
<v Speaker 8>alternative for people has been challenging. We've been making calls

0:20:24.640 --> 0:20:27.840
<v Speaker 8>knocking on doors, calling in, you know, trying to convince

0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:31.160
<v Speaker 8>people to move. And although this is the record, I'm

0:20:31.200 --> 0:20:33.520
<v Speaker 8>confident by the end of the year, early next year,

0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:36.159
<v Speaker 8>we're going to see other sales even breaking this record.

0:20:36.240 --> 0:20:38.880
<v Speaker 8>It's not that there's not demand from the buyers. It's

0:20:38.880 --> 0:20:41.200
<v Speaker 8>that we have few sellers at this point that are

0:20:41.200 --> 0:20:42.680
<v Speaker 8>willing to move for these type of.

0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:45.040
<v Speaker 4>Properties and the most sought after community.

0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:48.400
<v Speaker 8>So you know, this was a land transaction, but many

0:20:48.400 --> 0:20:50.560
<v Speaker 8>of the people looking at it wanted to finished home

0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:53.439
<v Speaker 8>on a large parcel and that type of inventory just

0:20:53.480 --> 0:20:56.119
<v Speaker 8>doesn't exist, so people are having to build it themselves.

0:20:56.440 --> 0:20:58.840
<v Speaker 8>And land price is now for the best parcels of land,

0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:02.080
<v Speaker 8>they're now one thousand foot for a land per foot basis.

0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:05.080
<v Speaker 8>So we're getting creative. We're trying to put neighbors together

0:21:05.160 --> 0:21:09.119
<v Speaker 8>in different communities. We're calling people. Maybe people are focused

0:21:09.160 --> 0:21:11.679
<v Speaker 8>on at home. Now we're pivoting to a penthouse. So

0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:13.919
<v Speaker 8>we have to get creative. But we're used to working

0:21:13.960 --> 0:21:17.200
<v Speaker 8>in a tight inventory environment. Going back to this, really

0:21:17.200 --> 0:21:21.120
<v Speaker 8>starting twenty twenty, if we go pre pandemic, the overwhelming

0:21:21.119 --> 0:21:23.760
<v Speaker 8>majority of buyers looking at this type of property, bidding

0:21:23.760 --> 0:21:27.160
<v Speaker 8>on this property would have been international buyers, so it's

0:21:27.240 --> 0:21:30.760
<v Speaker 8>completely switched from majority international to majority domestic in a

0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:31.880
<v Speaker 8>very short period of time.

0:21:32.320 --> 0:21:34.719
<v Speaker 5>And what sort of incentives are you having to put

0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:36.880
<v Speaker 5>up the incentives to get these neighbors to think about

0:21:36.880 --> 0:21:39.959
<v Speaker 5>putting their properties on the market, because I mean, if

0:21:39.960 --> 0:21:42.320
<v Speaker 5>you have all the buyers, how are you incentivizing them

0:21:42.359 --> 0:21:43.320
<v Speaker 5>to think about selling.

0:21:44.480 --> 0:21:45.800
<v Speaker 4>So that's been really challenging.

0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:48.520
<v Speaker 8>So, you know, one thing that's been a great care

0:21:48.520 --> 0:21:52.560
<v Speaker 8>at has been providing post occupancy agreements, particularly when people.

0:21:52.359 --> 0:21:53.840
<v Speaker 4>Are building or they're going to renovate.

0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:56.200
<v Speaker 8>So we work it into the deal where the seller

0:21:56.240 --> 0:21:58.840
<v Speaker 8>can stay for six months, sometimes even a year rent

0:21:58.840 --> 0:22:01.440
<v Speaker 8>free in the property. Then they have the proceeds from

0:22:01.440 --> 0:22:03.840
<v Speaker 8>the sale to find their next you know, property to

0:22:03.880 --> 0:22:07.159
<v Speaker 8>move to. We've had all sorts of sweeeners with you know,

0:22:07.240 --> 0:22:11.920
<v Speaker 8>quick closings, long closings, all different sorts of accommodations, even

0:22:11.960 --> 0:22:15.640
<v Speaker 8>people making arrangements, and many times we've had sellers say

0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:17.960
<v Speaker 8>we'll take this deal, but only if you find me

0:22:18.000 --> 0:22:20.040
<v Speaker 8>a property to go to. So it's contingent on me

0:22:20.200 --> 0:22:22.960
<v Speaker 8>finding a property to move to. And that's really only

0:22:22.960 --> 0:22:25.400
<v Speaker 8>happening in the highest end of the market. That's where

0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:27.680
<v Speaker 8>the demand is the strongest in the Miami market, the

0:22:27.800 --> 0:22:30.840
<v Speaker 8>very very ultra high end, because you have few sellers

0:22:30.840 --> 0:22:32.919
<v Speaker 8>and you have a pretty significant pool of buyers, so

0:22:33.480 --> 0:22:35.639
<v Speaker 8>the post occupancy is the lead. But really a lot

0:22:35.680 --> 0:22:36.879
<v Speaker 8>of it comes down to the number.

0:22:37.359 --> 0:22:37.840
<v Speaker 4>Is it right?

0:22:37.920 --> 0:22:38.160
<v Speaker 2>Many?

0:22:38.359 --> 0:22:41.640
<v Speaker 4>Well, go ahead, Oh no, I was just gonna say.

0:22:41.760 --> 0:22:44.800
<v Speaker 8>You know, usually when we ask or would you consider selling,

0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:47.479
<v Speaker 8>and the answers typically know for many of these you know,

0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:51.159
<v Speaker 8>trophy high net worth individuals and awn these type of properties.

0:22:51.680 --> 0:22:53.280
<v Speaker 8>But when we frame it as you know, is there

0:22:53.320 --> 0:22:56.040
<v Speaker 8>a number that you consider selling at with certain terms,

0:22:56.119 --> 0:22:59.639
<v Speaker 8>then it opens the conversation and sometimes people don't realize,

0:23:00.040 --> 0:23:03.479
<v Speaker 8>you know, there's a real many people. Not everybody, but

0:23:03.520 --> 0:23:05.640
<v Speaker 8>most people have a number that if it's big enough,

0:23:05.680 --> 0:23:06.320
<v Speaker 8>they may move.

0:23:06.400 --> 0:23:08.760
<v Speaker 4>They may you know, buy the property they were thinking.

0:23:08.560 --> 0:23:11.840
<v Speaker 8>About, or make different arrangements, and we try to create

0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:13.760
<v Speaker 8>a deal structure that works for everybody.

0:23:14.000 --> 0:23:16.240
<v Speaker 9>And then in thirty seconds, Danny, I happen to know

0:23:16.320 --> 0:23:19.480
<v Speaker 9>that there's one property in particular that you've called remarkable

0:23:19.680 --> 0:23:21.879
<v Speaker 9>with a single buyer and a single seller, that you

0:23:21.960 --> 0:23:24.080
<v Speaker 9>think could come to market by the end of the

0:23:24.160 --> 0:23:26.679
<v Speaker 9>year early next year. Above this can you give us

0:23:26.680 --> 0:23:27.760
<v Speaker 9>any more details on that?

0:23:27.880 --> 0:23:31.400
<v Speaker 2>And more like twenty seconds. Unfortunately, so my.

0:23:31.359 --> 0:23:32.200
<v Speaker 4>Lips are sealed.

0:23:32.200 --> 0:23:37.159
<v Speaker 8>But there is a potential transaction in the works. A

0:23:37.240 --> 0:23:39.000
<v Speaker 8>buyer wants a property and.

0:23:38.960 --> 0:23:40.640
<v Speaker 4>We'll see if the seller will sell, but it will

0:23:40.640 --> 0:23:41.560
<v Speaker 4>break this record.

0:23:41.920 --> 0:23:44.640
<v Speaker 8>And there are other potential buyers out there looking right

0:23:44.640 --> 0:23:46.880
<v Speaker 8>now in our market stay that are looking at prices

0:23:46.920 --> 0:23:48.240
<v Speaker 8>above this record sale.

0:23:48.440 --> 0:23:51.680
<v Speaker 2>Danny Herzberg Wheelter at the Jills Zeer Group.

0:23:53.080 --> 0:23:56.920
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:23:57.040 --> 0:23:59.639
<v Speaker 1>each weekday. He's starting at two pm Eastern. I'll Apple

0:23:59.680 --> 0:24:02.919
<v Speaker 1>Car and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business and you

0:24:02.960 --> 0:24:06.240
<v Speaker 1>can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

0:24:06.280 --> 0:24:10.359
<v Speaker 1>New York station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg. Eleven thirty.

0:24:12.200 --> 0:24:15.639
<v Speaker 3>Banks docs have rallied nearly three percent since last Wednesday

0:24:15.640 --> 0:24:18.520
<v Speaker 3>following the Fed's half a point rate cut, since dropping

0:24:18.560 --> 0:24:21.240
<v Speaker 3>back more than one percent. Back with us, though, to

0:24:21.280 --> 0:24:23.560
<v Speaker 3>talk about what's going on when it comes to rate

0:24:23.640 --> 0:24:27.040
<v Speaker 3>cuts and the impact on the banking community, is once

0:24:27.080 --> 0:24:29.680
<v Speaker 3>again welcome to have with us. Frank Sorrentino, He's chairman

0:24:29.720 --> 0:24:31.800
<v Speaker 3>and CEO at Connect One Bank Corp. It is the

0:24:31.800 --> 0:24:34.719
<v Speaker 3>publicly held New Jersey based community bank. They've got roughly

0:24:34.920 --> 0:24:37.240
<v Speaker 3>a nine hundred and sixty two million dollar market cap.

0:24:37.600 --> 0:24:39.280
<v Speaker 2>Since we talked, connect One.

0:24:39.240 --> 0:24:42.080
<v Speaker 3>Expanded its reach into Long Island thanks to a merger

0:24:42.080 --> 0:24:45.040
<v Speaker 3>with the First of Long Island Corporation. As for shares

0:24:45.040 --> 0:24:47.480
<v Speaker 3>of connect One overall, they're up nearly ten.

0:24:47.320 --> 0:24:48.000
<v Speaker 2>Percent year to date.

0:24:48.040 --> 0:24:50.840
<v Speaker 3>They've rallied about forty five percent since mid June. Frank,

0:24:51.200 --> 0:24:54.000
<v Speaker 3>so great to have you back with us here on

0:24:54.040 --> 0:24:55.000
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Business Week.

0:24:55.000 --> 0:24:58.720
<v Speaker 10>How are you, Thank you, Carol. We're doing quite well

0:24:58.720 --> 0:25:00.560
<v Speaker 10>and thank you for having me back on the program.

0:25:00.640 --> 0:25:01.760
<v Speaker 10>You bet you great times.

0:25:01.880 --> 0:25:04.320
<v Speaker 2>You've been busy, you've been busy. Tell us about this deal,

0:25:04.400 --> 0:25:05.000
<v Speaker 2>this tie up.

0:25:05.040 --> 0:25:07.440
<v Speaker 3>You didn't actually give us a clue, but you were

0:25:07.480 --> 0:25:09.439
<v Speaker 3>spending a fair amount of time in Long Island.

0:25:09.480 --> 0:25:12.640
<v Speaker 10>But go ahead. Oh well, we've been working on Long

0:25:12.680 --> 0:25:15.600
<v Speaker 10>Island for the last five years and this is a

0:25:15.800 --> 0:25:19.720
<v Speaker 10>really great market adjacency with a company that has a

0:25:19.800 --> 0:25:24.320
<v Speaker 10>very similar culture and an incredibly attractive client base. So

0:25:24.400 --> 0:25:28.400
<v Speaker 10>we're really excited to merge together with these folks. It's

0:25:28.440 --> 0:25:31.679
<v Speaker 10>a great team of people and we're looking forward to

0:25:32.320 --> 0:25:35.400
<v Speaker 10>giving that you know, First of Long Island as well

0:25:35.400 --> 0:25:38.960
<v Speaker 10>as all of their clients a great experience on Long

0:25:39.000 --> 0:25:41.760
<v Speaker 10>Island with some more capabilities, some more products, and some

0:25:41.760 --> 0:25:42.480
<v Speaker 10>more services.

0:25:42.600 --> 0:25:44.240
<v Speaker 5>Hey, Frank, I'm sure the people of Long Island to

0:25:44.240 --> 0:25:46.120
<v Speaker 5>be thrilled to hear you describe them as being incredibly

0:25:46.119 --> 0:25:48.440
<v Speaker 5>attractive as well, So we'll take off for them too.

0:25:48.480 --> 0:25:50.080
<v Speaker 5>But look are you Are you looking at any other

0:25:50.080 --> 0:25:53.160
<v Speaker 5>incredibly attractive places for perhaps and more acquisitions.

0:25:53.800 --> 0:25:57.200
<v Speaker 10>Well, I think we've always said that we're opportunistic as

0:25:57.240 --> 0:25:59.840
<v Speaker 10>it relates to M and A that you know, it's

0:25:59.840 --> 0:26:02.679
<v Speaker 10>been five years since the last transaction that we've done,

0:26:03.160 --> 0:26:06.240
<v Speaker 10>and I think you know, our organic growth story is

0:26:06.280 --> 0:26:09.200
<v Speaker 10>also something to talk about. You know, we've grown quite

0:26:09.240 --> 0:26:12.439
<v Speaker 10>a bit organically, and when there are good opportunities in

0:26:12.760 --> 0:26:16.960
<v Speaker 10>sound and really interesting markets like Long Island, and there's

0:26:17.000 --> 0:26:20.199
<v Speaker 10>the opportunity to do something with a partner that we

0:26:20.240 --> 0:26:23.879
<v Speaker 10>feel makes sense, we will seize that opportunity. So, you know,

0:26:23.960 --> 0:26:26.359
<v Speaker 10>our growth has been a combination of both organic and

0:26:26.560 --> 0:26:26.800
<v Speaker 10>M and A.

0:26:27.920 --> 0:26:29.480
<v Speaker 5>Let's take a step back and look at the big

0:26:29.520 --> 0:26:32.119
<v Speaker 5>picture here for a minute about where the kind of

0:26:32.160 --> 0:26:34.960
<v Speaker 5>broader situation is. After we've seen the FED cutting rates

0:26:35.480 --> 0:26:38.679
<v Speaker 5>last week as well how much do you feel like

0:26:38.800 --> 0:26:42.080
<v Speaker 5>there is a clear path ahead for what happens next,

0:26:42.200 --> 0:26:43.960
<v Speaker 5>and how are you thinking about it in terms of

0:26:44.000 --> 0:26:46.000
<v Speaker 5>your business on the future race environment.

0:26:47.400 --> 0:26:49.480
<v Speaker 10>Well, I think the FED has made it very clear

0:26:49.600 --> 0:26:51.960
<v Speaker 10>that they have a series of targets ahead of them

0:26:52.000 --> 0:26:55.520
<v Speaker 10>that they want to achieve. Whether they achieve them in

0:26:55.560 --> 0:26:58.399
<v Speaker 10>a shorter time frame or slightly longer time frame, I

0:26:58.440 --> 0:27:01.960
<v Speaker 10>don't really think matters all that much. So whether the

0:27:02.000 --> 0:27:04.760
<v Speaker 10>next cut is twenty five or fifty, or whether they

0:27:04.760 --> 0:27:07.280
<v Speaker 10>skip one, or you know, whatever they do. But the

0:27:07.880 --> 0:27:10.520
<v Speaker 10>fact remains they're clearly on a track to get to

0:27:10.720 --> 0:27:14.439
<v Speaker 10>lower rates, probably somewhat some another one hundred or one

0:27:14.480 --> 0:27:17.880
<v Speaker 10>hundred and twenty five basis points lower probably by year end,

0:27:18.119 --> 0:27:23.199
<v Speaker 10>and that they have a definite target in mind for

0:27:23.280 --> 0:27:25.560
<v Speaker 10>where they want the economy to go based on the

0:27:25.640 --> 0:27:28.720
<v Speaker 10>data that they see today. If that data changes, they

0:27:28.800 --> 0:27:30.000
<v Speaker 10>may change those targets.

0:27:30.200 --> 0:27:32.399
<v Speaker 3>How do you feel about the economy. You've been on

0:27:32.480 --> 0:27:36.000
<v Speaker 3>with us a lot over the last year. You've often

0:27:36.440 --> 0:27:39.000
<v Speaker 3>you know, I repeat myself, but when people were talking

0:27:39.560 --> 0:27:44.040
<v Speaker 3>kind of dour about the economic outlook, talking recession, you

0:27:44.119 --> 0:27:47.320
<v Speaker 3>were talking about robust was the word you often used

0:27:47.880 --> 0:27:50.159
<v Speaker 3>when it comes to what's going on in the US economy.

0:27:50.240 --> 0:27:52.600
<v Speaker 3>Tell us about what you are seeing and does it

0:27:52.640 --> 0:27:54.800
<v Speaker 3>maybe mean the FED doesn't need to go one hundred

0:27:54.800 --> 0:27:58.680
<v Speaker 3>and twenty five basis points because things are going really well.

0:27:58.800 --> 0:28:02.200
<v Speaker 10>Look things. I think we are still in a robust economy,

0:28:02.440 --> 0:28:04.879
<v Speaker 10>and I think the FED has gotten it right to

0:28:05.040 --> 0:28:09.159
<v Speaker 10>lead us through to a soft landing. They've you know,

0:28:09.200 --> 0:28:11.240
<v Speaker 10>this was a mission, and it was a mission that

0:28:11.320 --> 0:28:13.760
<v Speaker 10>many people had in doubt that they could ever achieve.

0:28:13.840 --> 0:28:17.439
<v Speaker 10>But yet here we are. The economy is doing well.

0:28:17.800 --> 0:28:20.760
<v Speaker 10>Business formations are at all time high, no matter how

0:28:20.800 --> 0:28:23.120
<v Speaker 10>you look at that data, and I think that boats

0:28:23.200 --> 0:28:27.760
<v Speaker 10>very very well. Home construction is going gangbusters.

0:28:27.920 --> 0:28:29.280
<v Speaker 2>And that's that's your work.

0:28:29.560 --> 0:28:31.800
<v Speaker 3>You play into residential, right, and you play into the

0:28:31.880 --> 0:28:33.359
<v Speaker 3>visit we talk about it.

0:28:33.400 --> 0:28:35.240
<v Speaker 2>Is it still going gangbusters?

0:28:35.800 --> 0:28:36.200
<v Speaker 1>It is?

0:28:36.480 --> 0:28:40.440
<v Speaker 10>You know, well, again we're talking about the market areas

0:28:40.440 --> 0:28:42.760
<v Speaker 10>that connect one bank serves, right. So the New York

0:28:42.800 --> 0:28:46.200
<v Speaker 10>metro market is very constrained as it relates to housing.

0:28:46.240 --> 0:28:49.440
<v Speaker 10>And so every construction project that we're involved with, when

0:28:49.440 --> 0:28:53.760
<v Speaker 10>it's completed, whether it's homes, condos, town homes, they are sold,

0:28:54.120 --> 0:28:57.320
<v Speaker 10>whether it's apartments they are being rented. And generally at

0:28:57.400 --> 0:29:00.640
<v Speaker 10>higher than pro forma numbers. So that bodes well for

0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:03.080
<v Speaker 10>the economy. And keep in mind, you know, I've always

0:29:03.080 --> 0:29:05.280
<v Speaker 10>been a big proponent of home building, whether it's for

0:29:05.360 --> 0:29:08.320
<v Speaker 10>apartments or for people to own houses. When people move

0:29:08.360 --> 0:29:11.680
<v Speaker 10>in someplace, they buy stuff, right, they buy a lot

0:29:11.720 --> 0:29:14.040
<v Speaker 10>of stuff. It is one of the greatest generators for,

0:29:14.800 --> 0:29:17.720
<v Speaker 10>you know, in the economy that exists. And so when

0:29:17.760 --> 0:29:21.080
<v Speaker 10>you see you know, home building going at a at

0:29:21.120 --> 0:29:24.120
<v Speaker 10>a rapid pace, and you see people buying homes as

0:29:24.160 --> 0:29:26.240
<v Speaker 10>fast as they can get them, they are bidding wars

0:29:26.280 --> 0:29:29.840
<v Speaker 10>going on for existing home product day, there's just not enough.

0:29:29.880 --> 0:29:31.840
<v Speaker 10>You speak to any realtor, they will tell you there's

0:29:31.880 --> 0:29:34.840
<v Speaker 10>just not enough product on the marketplace. That tells me

0:29:34.880 --> 0:29:37.840
<v Speaker 10>things are pretty good. People have jobs, people have the

0:29:37.920 --> 0:29:42.000
<v Speaker 10>income to support, you know, their lifestyles, and those apartments

0:29:42.000 --> 0:29:45.480
<v Speaker 10>and those homes. So again, the reason I say robust

0:29:45.560 --> 0:29:49.720
<v Speaker 10>is because I feel people have great jobs and are

0:29:49.760 --> 0:29:52.680
<v Speaker 10>continuing to spend, and that's what our economy is based on.

0:29:53.120 --> 0:29:55.720
<v Speaker 5>We are seeing a very slight loosening happening in the

0:29:55.760 --> 0:29:57.840
<v Speaker 5>labor market now, though, and I wonder how you're thinking

0:29:57.840 --> 0:30:00.400
<v Speaker 5>about that in six months or a year's time, and

0:30:00.440 --> 0:30:03.200
<v Speaker 5>as you'rerationing all these loans, these people right there enthusiastically

0:30:03.280 --> 0:30:07.520
<v Speaker 5>buying homes in the area as well. How are you concerned?

0:30:07.920 --> 0:30:10.680
<v Speaker 5>How are you testing with these these new borrowers also

0:30:10.760 --> 0:30:12.600
<v Speaker 5>to see how much they would be able to withstand

0:30:12.600 --> 0:30:14.400
<v Speaker 5>should the labor market take a bigger downturn.

0:30:15.400 --> 0:30:18.720
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, I don't see the labor market taking a big downturn.

0:30:18.840 --> 0:30:20.960
<v Speaker 10>You know, we have to keep things in relative perspective.

0:30:21.120 --> 0:30:23.880
<v Speaker 10>Right when you think about the labor market with a

0:30:23.920 --> 0:30:26.920
<v Speaker 10>three and a half percent on employment rate five years

0:30:26.960 --> 0:30:28.800
<v Speaker 10>ago or seven years ago, you would have told me

0:30:28.840 --> 0:30:33.480
<v Speaker 10>that's impossible. We can't get there. The neutral rate or

0:30:33.520 --> 0:30:35.680
<v Speaker 10>the you know, the stable rate was four and a

0:30:35.720 --> 0:30:38.840
<v Speaker 10>half or five percent. So I think we're coming off

0:30:39.080 --> 0:30:43.320
<v Speaker 10>a very incredibly strong economy and maybe it's you know,

0:30:43.360 --> 0:30:46.960
<v Speaker 10>maybe it's slowing a bit, but it's not faltering. Companies

0:30:46.960 --> 0:30:50.800
<v Speaker 10>are still complaining that they can't find or source really

0:30:50.840 --> 0:30:54.000
<v Speaker 10>good talent today, and so the opportunities are still there

0:30:54.840 --> 0:30:58.239
<v Speaker 10>for folks and people who are in the you know,

0:30:58.480 --> 0:31:01.400
<v Speaker 10>places in the economy where there's need for certain types

0:31:01.400 --> 0:31:04.240
<v Speaker 10>of labor, certain types of services. They just can't find

0:31:04.320 --> 0:31:07.560
<v Speaker 10>enough folks to fill those positions. So, you know, and

0:31:07.600 --> 0:31:10.960
<v Speaker 10>I'm not sure that four percent the unemployment is something

0:31:11.000 --> 0:31:12.080
<v Speaker 10>where we should be worried.

0:31:12.560 --> 0:31:13.880
<v Speaker 3>Well, you know, and one of the things we just

0:31:13.880 --> 0:31:18.000
<v Speaker 3>had a discussion with our connorson he found out a

0:31:18.000 --> 0:31:20.600
<v Speaker 3>financial advisory firm, but he wrote a Bloomberg opinion column

0:31:20.600 --> 0:31:22.640
<v Speaker 3>that basically saying Frank that we're gonna have to kind

0:31:22.680 --> 0:31:26.560
<v Speaker 3>of make the decision between either having lower mortgage rates,

0:31:26.560 --> 0:31:30.600
<v Speaker 3>which some would like in a big way, or we're

0:31:30.640 --> 0:31:32.640
<v Speaker 3>gonna let We're gonna have to have let the FED

0:31:32.760 --> 0:31:38.400
<v Speaker 3>kind of, you know, maybe allow for a stable labor market,

0:31:38.400 --> 0:31:40.600
<v Speaker 3>like we just kind of can't have both. Like if

0:31:40.640 --> 0:31:43.760
<v Speaker 3>you see the FED cutting rates even more, which would

0:31:43.880 --> 0:31:47.160
<v Speaker 3>bring down mortgage rates even more, it probably means because

0:31:47.200 --> 0:31:49.240
<v Speaker 3>the economy is coming undone and the and the labor

0:31:49.280 --> 0:31:50.680
<v Speaker 3>market is coming undone.

0:31:50.840 --> 0:31:52.840
<v Speaker 2>So how do you see it? Is the FED going

0:31:52.880 --> 0:31:54.040
<v Speaker 2>to have to kind of make some choices?

0:31:54.080 --> 0:31:55.720
<v Speaker 3>Are we going to have to make some choices about

0:31:55.720 --> 0:31:59.240
<v Speaker 3>what we what we get with this US economy and want.

0:31:59.640 --> 0:32:02.120
<v Speaker 10>I think the FED is making choices. And I've been

0:32:02.680 --> 0:32:05.760
<v Speaker 10>a staunch proponent of the Fed's actions over the last

0:32:05.800 --> 0:32:08.440
<v Speaker 10>number of years. I think they've gotten it right. Could

0:32:08.440 --> 0:32:10.560
<v Speaker 10>they have been a little bit faster on the uptake?

0:32:10.640 --> 0:32:13.520
<v Speaker 10>Could they be a little bit slower maybe here, or

0:32:13.560 --> 0:32:15.680
<v Speaker 10>maybe they need to go a little faster. I don't know,

0:32:15.800 --> 0:32:18.600
<v Speaker 10>But overall, I think they've been doing a good job.

0:32:18.920 --> 0:32:21.400
<v Speaker 10>Here we are. We're sitting in economy with very, very

0:32:21.440 --> 0:32:24.760
<v Speaker 10>low unemployment, and we're sitting in an economy that is

0:32:24.920 --> 0:32:28.720
<v Speaker 10>growing where consumers continue to spend. So I think they're

0:32:28.760 --> 0:32:32.840
<v Speaker 10>getting it right. If anyone is thinking we're going back

0:32:32.880 --> 0:32:35.760
<v Speaker 10>to a time when we're going to have three percent mortgages, Okay,

0:32:35.800 --> 0:32:38.280
<v Speaker 10>that's not going to happen. But the idea that we're

0:32:38.280 --> 0:32:40.760
<v Speaker 10>going to have you know, four and a half, five percent,

0:32:40.880 --> 0:32:44.160
<v Speaker 10>five and a half percent mortgages, that's nirvana if you

0:32:44.200 --> 0:32:46.960
<v Speaker 10>think about any other time period in our history. So

0:32:46.960 --> 0:32:49.719
<v Speaker 10>we're not that far away from that, and yet still

0:32:49.760 --> 0:32:54.239
<v Speaker 10>have low and low unemployment and still have you know,

0:32:54.280 --> 0:32:57.280
<v Speaker 10>a growing economy with all the opportunities we have. The

0:32:57.400 --> 0:33:01.320
<v Speaker 10>US leads the world in so many different industries. What

0:33:01.480 --> 0:33:03.600
<v Speaker 10>else could you be wishing for. This is a good

0:33:03.640 --> 0:33:05.800
<v Speaker 10>place to be and I think the FED is getting

0:33:05.840 --> 0:33:07.560
<v Speaker 10>it right, and I think we're going to land in

0:33:07.560 --> 0:33:08.200
<v Speaker 10>the right place.

0:33:08.680 --> 0:33:10.960
<v Speaker 5>Okay, I'm hearing all of the optimistic masters, and I

0:33:11.000 --> 0:33:14.000
<v Speaker 5>appreciate them, and I hear you, but I do want

0:33:14.040 --> 0:33:16.400
<v Speaker 5>to ask you if there's anything you're worried about, because

0:33:16.800 --> 0:33:20.440
<v Speaker 5>you know, there are concerns out there, and I'm just

0:33:20.720 --> 0:33:21.040
<v Speaker 5>a lot of.

0:33:21.040 --> 0:33:23.080
<v Speaker 2>American voters they certainly feel that way.

0:33:23.400 --> 0:33:25.840
<v Speaker 5>And I'm just curious as to what you're watching for

0:33:26.040 --> 0:33:28.760
<v Speaker 5>the potential signs that maybe things might you know, there

0:33:28.760 --> 0:33:30.080
<v Speaker 5>could be some bumps in the road in the way.

0:33:31.240 --> 0:33:33.680
<v Speaker 10>There's always the potential for bumps in the road, and

0:33:33.760 --> 0:33:36.920
<v Speaker 10>we cancel all of our clients to you know, be aware,

0:33:37.280 --> 0:33:41.080
<v Speaker 10>have situational awareness. Could there be a spike in you know,

0:33:41.160 --> 0:33:44.000
<v Speaker 10>various indicators that there could be a change in interest

0:33:44.080 --> 0:33:46.960
<v Speaker 10>rate policy that was unexpected Right six months ago, everyone

0:33:46.960 --> 0:33:49.680
<v Speaker 10>thought maybe rates were going to go up. So I

0:33:49.720 --> 0:33:52.760
<v Speaker 10>think it's I think it's important for people to prepare

0:33:52.880 --> 0:33:56.240
<v Speaker 10>for a number of different eventualities.

0:34:00.880 --> 0:34:02.480
<v Speaker 2>That happens. You know, welcome to the world.

0:34:02.600 --> 0:34:06.760
<v Speaker 10>People should and people should People should should not you know,

0:34:06.840 --> 0:34:12.239
<v Speaker 10>necessarily make business decisions only based on headlines there in

0:34:12.280 --> 0:34:13.960
<v Speaker 10>the news. We should take a look at what's going

0:34:14.000 --> 0:34:16.319
<v Speaker 10>on on the ground. What I am speaking to is

0:34:16.320 --> 0:34:19.759
<v Speaker 10>what our clients are telling us about their business prospects

0:34:19.800 --> 0:34:22.480
<v Speaker 10>and where they're willing to invest their capital. And the

0:34:22.520 --> 0:34:25.239
<v Speaker 10>things we're being told is that it looks like the

0:34:25.280 --> 0:34:27.520
<v Speaker 10>economy is on a very solid footing as we sit

0:34:27.560 --> 0:34:30.400
<v Speaker 10>here today, and we'll continue to grow moving forward.

0:34:30.440 --> 0:34:31.320
<v Speaker 2>Hey thirty seconds.

0:34:31.360 --> 0:34:33.440
<v Speaker 3>So when you look at your loan book or when

0:34:33.440 --> 0:34:35.279
<v Speaker 3>you look at loan demand, you don't see any signs

0:34:35.320 --> 0:34:35.800
<v Speaker 3>of stress.

0:34:37.480 --> 0:34:40.799
<v Speaker 10>Look, there's always there's always signs of some sort of

0:34:40.800 --> 0:34:43.400
<v Speaker 10>stress somewhere in the economy, and it moves from place

0:34:43.440 --> 0:34:45.880
<v Speaker 10>to place. So yes, we always have to keep an

0:34:45.920 --> 0:34:48.520
<v Speaker 10>eye on that. And you know, the lowering of interest

0:34:48.600 --> 0:34:52.320
<v Speaker 10>rates is making some of those areas better off today

0:34:52.320 --> 0:34:54.440
<v Speaker 10>than they were maybe six months ago, but it may

0:34:54.520 --> 0:34:58.560
<v Speaker 10>create other issues in other places. Anyone who's lending money

0:34:58.600 --> 0:35:01.080
<v Speaker 10>has to always, you know, be a into what parts

0:35:01.080 --> 0:35:03.719
<v Speaker 10>of the economy are moving better than others. And that's

0:35:03.760 --> 0:35:07.520
<v Speaker 10>a very very you know, fast moving environment. So I

0:35:07.520 --> 0:35:11.200
<v Speaker 10>wouldn't say it's devoid of any stress whatsoever. We certainly

0:35:11.800 --> 0:35:13.600
<v Speaker 10>that's our job is to look at where those things

0:35:13.640 --> 0:35:14.200
<v Speaker 10>are occurring.

0:35:14.360 --> 0:35:16.040
<v Speaker 3>Well, as you know, we always appreciate when we get

0:35:16.040 --> 0:35:19.080
<v Speaker 3>some time with you, Frankie, Well, frank Sorrentino. He's chairman

0:35:19.120 --> 0:35:21.799
<v Speaker 3>and at Connect one Bank Court joining us there from

0:35:22.000 --> 0:35:23.000
<v Speaker 3>Long Island.

0:35:23.840 --> 0:35:26.080
<v Speaker 4>Brother marcome.

0:35:27.239 --> 0:35:29.360
<v Speaker 3>A journal now about you?

0:35:29.440 --> 0:35:29.920
<v Speaker 11>Let me drive?

0:35:30.200 --> 0:35:34.120
<v Speaker 5>Oh no, no, no no, he's gone to drive, honey, please,

0:35:34.239 --> 0:35:35.680
<v Speaker 5>I'll do the riding gravels.

0:35:36.120 --> 0:35:37.479
<v Speaker 3>Let's wat I want to drive.

0:35:37.480 --> 0:35:41.600
<v Speaker 10>It's a good question that try.

0:35:44.440 --> 0:35:47.040
<v Speaker 4>This is the drive to the Clothes dot Com.

0:35:47.520 --> 0:35:50.800
<v Speaker 1>Think well, jo it on on Bluebird Radio.

0:35:50.920 --> 0:35:53.600
<v Speaker 3>All right, everybody, just under twenty minutes left to end

0:35:53.680 --> 0:35:57.360
<v Speaker 3>the Monday trading day. I heard Charlie breaking down the numbers,

0:35:57.360 --> 0:35:59.799
<v Speaker 3>Bill Maloney as well, and we're definitely of our best

0:35:59.840 --> 0:36:02.160
<v Speaker 3>life of the session. So I'm going to say Stephen

0:36:02.320 --> 0:36:04.040
<v Speaker 3>just a little bit higher. But you know, it was

0:36:04.040 --> 0:36:06.040
<v Speaker 3>a big week last week with the FED meeting. I

0:36:06.040 --> 0:36:07.839
<v Speaker 3>feel like we're going to wait to see what FED

0:36:07.880 --> 0:36:09.920
<v Speaker 3>speakers are saying, although a lot have been out in

0:36:09.960 --> 0:36:10.520
<v Speaker 3>full force.

0:36:10.640 --> 0:36:12.640
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, that's when we heard from Aston Gosby among others,

0:36:12.640 --> 0:36:15.000
<v Speaker 5>talking about many more rake cuts so expected over the

0:36:15.000 --> 0:36:18.759
<v Speaker 5>next year, two many more meet It was sufficiently nebulous,

0:36:18.920 --> 0:36:20.399
<v Speaker 5>is what I enjoyed it. I think we probably needed

0:36:20.400 --> 0:36:22.560
<v Speaker 5>to hear him say it to really understand what it meant.

0:36:22.600 --> 0:36:24.480
<v Speaker 5>And we're thinking about the year ahead. Let's bring in

0:36:24.560 --> 0:36:28.160
<v Speaker 5>Veronica Wellison's Global investment Strattus at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

0:36:28.200 --> 0:36:30.719
<v Speaker 5>He joins us from Saint Louis. Veronica, Great to have

0:36:30.800 --> 0:36:33.560
<v Speaker 5>you with us on the program. So what's your reading

0:36:33.560 --> 0:36:34.839
<v Speaker 5>on where markets are this week?

0:36:34.920 --> 0:36:35.080
<v Speaker 4>Right?

0:36:35.080 --> 0:36:36.800
<v Speaker 5>Are we in a sweet spot? We got the fifty

0:36:36.800 --> 0:36:39.279
<v Speaker 5>basis points, we haven't gotten into earning season yet. Is

0:36:39.320 --> 0:36:41.640
<v Speaker 5>this sort of a happy coasting moment or do we

0:36:41.680 --> 0:36:43.879
<v Speaker 5>need to watch out for Iceberg's.

0:36:44.800 --> 0:36:46.759
<v Speaker 11>I think we're in a bit of a sweet spot

0:36:46.880 --> 0:36:49.760
<v Speaker 11>right now. A pretty quiet day that we've seen today

0:36:49.800 --> 0:36:52.720
<v Speaker 11>after a very eventful week last week. But I think

0:36:53.080 --> 0:36:57.360
<v Speaker 11>ahead we've got some important data this week. Most importantly,

0:36:57.360 --> 0:37:01.279
<v Speaker 11>we've got that PC inflation expected all on Friday. And

0:37:01.360 --> 0:37:04.359
<v Speaker 11>while you know, markets have shifted their focus a little

0:37:04.400 --> 0:37:07.200
<v Speaker 11>bit to the labor market over inflation, I do think

0:37:07.280 --> 0:37:10.240
<v Speaker 11>that those inflation updates are going to continue to be important.

0:37:10.440 --> 0:37:13.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I agree with you. We are so still data dependent.

0:37:13.040 --> 0:37:14.480
<v Speaker 3>I mean, folks, if you thought we were over it,

0:37:14.560 --> 0:37:17.360
<v Speaker 3>we are just so not. It's data dependent and inflation

0:37:17.480 --> 0:37:20.680
<v Speaker 3>and even the Fed said right, Veronica made some point

0:37:20.680 --> 0:37:23.080
<v Speaker 3>about that inflation is still not quite where they the

0:37:23.120 --> 0:37:24.880
<v Speaker 3>FED would like it to be, so you know that

0:37:24.920 --> 0:37:25.960
<v Speaker 3>they are watching as well.

0:37:27.200 --> 0:37:27.439
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:37:27.440 --> 0:37:31.440
<v Speaker 11>Absolutely. You know a lot of people have taken the

0:37:31.640 --> 0:37:34.120
<v Speaker 11>fifty basis point cut by the FED as a win

0:37:34.239 --> 0:37:36.960
<v Speaker 11>over inflation. And I think what's going to be important

0:37:37.000 --> 0:37:39.040
<v Speaker 11>for all of the various bet speakers we've got this

0:37:39.120 --> 0:37:42.880
<v Speaker 11>week speaking or looking at what they're saying about inflation.

0:37:44.040 --> 0:37:46.239
<v Speaker 11>They certainly haven't told us, you know, we have a

0:37:46.280 --> 0:37:48.560
<v Speaker 11>victory over inflation. They still want to see that inflation

0:37:48.680 --> 0:37:49.160
<v Speaker 11>number come.

0:37:49.080 --> 0:37:52.080
<v Speaker 5>Down some more on the south landing question, and we

0:37:52.080 --> 0:37:56.040
<v Speaker 5>were speaking to the CEO of Bincorp there a moment ago,

0:37:57.520 --> 0:38:00.880
<v Speaker 5>thank you, super optimistic about where things are going for

0:38:00.880 --> 0:38:03.920
<v Speaker 5>the US economy, but this question of soft landing and

0:38:03.960 --> 0:38:06.799
<v Speaker 5>the risks of that landing still in question. I mean,

0:38:06.920 --> 0:38:10.640
<v Speaker 5>what's the market perception on that From your point of view, I.

0:38:10.600 --> 0:38:13.560
<v Speaker 11>Think the market is becoming a little bit more concerned

0:38:13.600 --> 0:38:15.600
<v Speaker 11>that maybe there will be a recession. But I think

0:38:15.880 --> 0:38:18.120
<v Speaker 11>soft landing is what's priced in and that's what the

0:38:18.160 --> 0:38:22.240
<v Speaker 11>most likely scenario is. We're seeing economic.

0:38:21.960 --> 0:38:24.480
<v Speaker 2>Rights based on what you guys look at.

0:38:25.200 --> 0:38:28.160
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, I think we're seeing slowing economic growth, but not

0:38:28.360 --> 0:38:30.759
<v Speaker 11>enough to put us into a recession. And I think

0:38:30.840 --> 0:38:33.640
<v Speaker 11>by the time we get to that low in the growth,

0:38:33.760 --> 0:38:36.800
<v Speaker 11>we'll start to see that acceleration and really avoid a recession.

0:38:36.840 --> 0:38:40.600
<v Speaker 5>At this point, what we're thinking about next year, you know,

0:38:40.840 --> 0:38:43.080
<v Speaker 5>the idea of there being a better economic picture in

0:38:43.160 --> 0:38:46.400
<v Speaker 5>play there as well. How do you position now to

0:38:46.480 --> 0:38:47.919
<v Speaker 5>be ready for that next year?

0:38:49.400 --> 0:38:52.440
<v Speaker 11>I think for now we are a little bit cautious

0:38:52.560 --> 0:38:55.920
<v Speaker 11>thinking of US large caps over small caps, and then

0:38:56.080 --> 0:38:58.359
<v Speaker 11>in the fixed income space, we like investment grade over

0:38:58.440 --> 0:39:01.840
<v Speaker 11>high yield, waiting for a little bit of a better

0:39:02.480 --> 0:39:04.840
<v Speaker 11>entry point to making a shift to those risk on

0:39:05.160 --> 0:39:06.960
<v Speaker 11>So once we start to feel a little bit more

0:39:06.960 --> 0:39:10.440
<v Speaker 11>comfortable that the economy is starting to accelerate, that's when

0:39:10.480 --> 0:39:12.279
<v Speaker 11>we want to make more of a shift to those

0:39:12.280 --> 0:39:14.400
<v Speaker 11>more risk on areas of the market that tend to

0:39:14.400 --> 0:39:16.600
<v Speaker 11>do well as the economy starts to reaccelerate.

0:39:16.800 --> 0:39:18.960
<v Speaker 3>All right, So, for people are putting new money to

0:39:19.080 --> 0:39:22.880
<v Speaker 3>work right now, what's your advice for people who have

0:39:23.040 --> 0:39:26.440
<v Speaker 3>existing portfolios? What's the tinkering you suggest right now?

0:39:27.680 --> 0:39:30.920
<v Speaker 11>I think right now a focus on the US large

0:39:30.920 --> 0:39:33.719
<v Speaker 11>cap space. We've seen a bit of a rally year,

0:39:33.960 --> 0:39:37.000
<v Speaker 11>so I'd focus on some of those sectors that have

0:39:37.160 --> 0:39:40.399
<v Speaker 11>the best valuations right now that we're expecting to do

0:39:40.480 --> 0:39:43.560
<v Speaker 11>well over the next twelve to eighteen months or so.

0:39:43.560 --> 0:39:49.360
<v Speaker 11>So we like communications services, financials, energy, materials, and industrials.

0:39:50.000 --> 0:39:52.560
<v Speaker 11>We think that those sectors are, you know, a little

0:39:52.560 --> 0:39:55.640
<v Speaker 11>bit better evaluation than tech, which has gotten a little

0:39:55.640 --> 0:39:59.560
<v Speaker 11>bit overextended over the past couple of years, but should

0:39:59.600 --> 0:40:03.520
<v Speaker 11>also benefit from the long term type of AI trends

0:40:03.560 --> 0:40:07.000
<v Speaker 11>that has really boosted tech. I think sometimes people forget

0:40:07.080 --> 0:40:09.920
<v Speaker 11>that other sectors will really benefit from that AI trade,

0:40:10.320 --> 0:40:13.400
<v Speaker 11>and that's what I would really encourage investors to do

0:40:13.480 --> 0:40:13.879
<v Speaker 11>right now.

0:40:13.960 --> 0:40:17.080
<v Speaker 3>Communication services as a whole, certainly a group that we

0:40:17.120 --> 0:40:17.759
<v Speaker 3>talk about a lot.

0:40:17.840 --> 0:40:19.719
<v Speaker 2>It's a little bit lower in today's trade.

0:40:19.760 --> 0:40:22.719
<v Speaker 3>If I bring up the year to date numbers, let

0:40:22.760 --> 0:40:25.000
<v Speaker 3>me just go there on the Bloomberg you see communication

0:40:25.120 --> 0:40:27.080
<v Speaker 3>services up almost twenty six percent so.

0:40:27.080 --> 0:40:29.560
<v Speaker 2>Far this year. It's an interesting group though.

0:40:29.640 --> 0:40:32.960
<v Speaker 3>You know, you've got your media names, your traditional media companies,

0:40:32.960 --> 0:40:35.560
<v Speaker 3>but you have something like Meta in there, you have

0:40:35.719 --> 0:40:38.800
<v Speaker 3>Google in there. So when I know you can't necessarily

0:40:38.840 --> 0:40:42.239
<v Speaker 3>talk specific names when you drill down into various sectors

0:40:42.560 --> 0:40:45.600
<v Speaker 3>within communications services, is it some of the megacap tech

0:40:45.680 --> 0:40:48.840
<v Speaker 3>names that you guys still find interesting or.

0:40:49.080 --> 0:40:51.440
<v Speaker 2>Is it some of the traditional is it the streamers?

0:40:51.440 --> 0:40:51.520
<v Speaker 4>Like?

0:40:51.560 --> 0:40:52.160
<v Speaker 2>What is it?

0:40:53.640 --> 0:40:56.800
<v Speaker 11>I think overall as a sector, we really like the

0:40:57.239 --> 0:41:01.160
<v Speaker 11>opportunities there. We do think some of thecaps can still

0:41:01.320 --> 0:41:05.040
<v Speaker 11>perform well as long as their earnings still deliver what

0:41:05.160 --> 0:41:08.960
<v Speaker 11>the market is expecting. We've seen a little bit of

0:41:09.320 --> 0:41:13.680
<v Speaker 11>market broadening this year with other names participating in the

0:41:13.760 --> 0:41:16.640
<v Speaker 11>rally and not just that heavy concentration on those you know,

0:41:16.760 --> 0:41:19.600
<v Speaker 11>top seven stocks or so. And I think that's what

0:41:19.640 --> 0:41:22.680
<v Speaker 11>we're expecting to continue for the rest of this year

0:41:22.719 --> 0:41:25.560
<v Speaker 11>into twenty twenty five. So I still think that there's

0:41:25.760 --> 0:41:30.920
<v Speaker 11>room for communication services to improve and adding that exposure

0:41:30.960 --> 0:41:33.400
<v Speaker 11>on days when you see pullbacks is a really good idea.

0:41:33.960 --> 0:41:36.279
<v Speaker 5>What a big companies that are consumer focused. I wonder

0:41:36.320 --> 0:41:38.560
<v Speaker 5>what's you're reading on the US consumer right now. We've

0:41:38.600 --> 0:41:40.600
<v Speaker 5>had we've had the first rate cut. You know, that's

0:41:40.600 --> 0:41:42.400
<v Speaker 5>going to help those that have mortgages to pay, but

0:41:42.960 --> 0:41:45.440
<v Speaker 5>you know, more broadly, there have been signs of weakness

0:41:45.440 --> 0:41:47.440
<v Speaker 5>in some of the data.

0:41:47.600 --> 0:41:51.120
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, and we're really seeing that consumer confidence also wane

0:41:51.160 --> 0:41:53.680
<v Speaker 11>a little bit. As you know, consumers are just really

0:41:53.719 --> 0:41:56.279
<v Speaker 11>they're really worried about inflation. They're really worried about where

0:41:56.360 --> 0:42:00.320
<v Speaker 11>prices are now, and we haven't necessarily seen that flow

0:42:00.440 --> 0:42:04.680
<v Speaker 11>through to retail sales, which have held up. Okay, it's

0:42:04.680 --> 0:42:07.719
<v Speaker 11>softening a little bit, but it hasn't gotten to a

0:42:07.760 --> 0:42:10.160
<v Speaker 11>concerning point, which is part of the reason why we're

0:42:10.200 --> 0:42:13.000
<v Speaker 11>in that soft landing camp. We'll think the consumer will

0:42:13.000 --> 0:42:16.680
<v Speaker 11>be able to hold up. Okay, not as strong as

0:42:16.719 --> 0:42:20.760
<v Speaker 11>they have been previously, but that's that's a big portion

0:42:21.040 --> 0:42:24.319
<v Speaker 11>of why we're expecting economic growth to slow but not

0:42:24.360 --> 0:42:27.480
<v Speaker 11>pull us into our recession, is just that the consumer

0:42:27.600 --> 0:42:28.680
<v Speaker 11>should hold up. Okay.

0:42:29.200 --> 0:42:31.200
<v Speaker 2>Is the AI trade still a good one in your view?

0:42:32.880 --> 0:42:35.320
<v Speaker 11>I think it's important to think of the AI trade

0:42:35.360 --> 0:42:39.279
<v Speaker 11>as more more than just a near term type of play.

0:42:39.400 --> 0:42:41.680
<v Speaker 11>It's a it's a longer term theme which I think

0:42:41.719 --> 0:42:44.279
<v Speaker 11>will play play out in the markets over you know,

0:42:45.239 --> 0:42:48.880
<v Speaker 11>years to come, and so I do think it's important

0:42:48.960 --> 0:42:51.480
<v Speaker 11>to think outside of the tech sector when you're when

0:42:51.480 --> 0:42:54.360
<v Speaker 11>you're thinking of that AI play, That's not the only

0:42:54.400 --> 0:42:57.160
<v Speaker 11>place where you'll really be able to see the benefits there.

0:42:57.920 --> 0:43:02.640
<v Speaker 11>In particular, the energy, material industrial sectors will also benefit

0:43:02.680 --> 0:43:05.480
<v Speaker 11>in the AI because they're all part of you know,

0:43:05.520 --> 0:43:08.880
<v Speaker 11>getting up to those AI solutions and right now they

0:43:08.920 --> 0:43:11.080
<v Speaker 11>have a little bit better valuations and what we're seeing

0:43:11.120 --> 0:43:13.680
<v Speaker 11>in the tech sector. So that's a really great way

0:43:13.719 --> 0:43:15.800
<v Speaker 11>to play that longer term AI trend.

0:43:16.200 --> 0:43:18.160
<v Speaker 2>All right, Gonna leave it on that note. Listen Veronica.

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<v Speaker 3>We really appreciate your time today, by the way, and

0:43:20.480 --> 0:43:22.160
<v Speaker 3>video is up about four tens of a percent in

0:43:22.160 --> 0:43:24.239
<v Speaker 3>case you were I feel like we say AI, we

0:43:24.280 --> 0:43:25.320
<v Speaker 3>have to talk about Nvidia.

0:43:25.719 --> 0:43:27.799
<v Speaker 5>That's Ronica at a stark level of investment Stratus at

0:43:27.800 --> 0:43:30.399
<v Speaker 5>well Wells Fargo Investment Tendsity with us from Saint Louis.

0:43:30.880 --> 0:43:35.520
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

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