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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Cameron Dawson briefe from New Edge. I think a lot

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Speaker 2: of our listeners know the Cameron Dawson line. What has

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Speaker 2: changed for you in the last forty eight seventy two

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Speaker 2: hours with a reaffirmation of equities.

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Speaker 3: I think that what got reaffirmed is that we are

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Speaker 3: still very much in an up trend. What got taken

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Speaker 3: out or changed in the last twenty four hours is

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Speaker 3: the risk that the Fed would be hiking rates at

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Speaker 3: some point in twenty five or twenty six. The two

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Speaker 3: year treasury yield got to four point four percent, which

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Speaker 3: is just slightly below we're Fed funds is right now.

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Speaker 3: That meant that you were pricing in some risk that

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Speaker 3: we could get to hikes.

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Speaker 2: I want to talk about the ambiguity out there. It's

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Speaker 2: a microeconomic concept, folks, which is yields go up. OMG,

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Speaker 2: that's bad for stocks. And I've had a number of

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Speaker 2: sophisticated guests like you say, maybe.

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Speaker 4: Not yields a bit higher.

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Speaker 2: There's a bit more inflation, nominal GDP is better, and

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Speaker 2: revenues come in sprightly like delta four out of eight

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Speaker 2: banks whatever, Cardia and Switzerland. I mean, is this a

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Speaker 2: revenue myss that we're going into.

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Speaker 4: In this court?

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Speaker 5: The smcreo.

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Speaker 3: Well, I do think that we need to make a

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Speaker 3: distinction between what's going on with European luxury and what

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Speaker 3: could happen within US consumer stocks, because European luxury is

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Speaker 3: benefiting from a week euro and a strong dollar. If

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Speaker 3: we see US consumer stocks potentially coming out saying, hey,

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Speaker 3: the dollar's really strong, it's weighing on some demand or

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Speaker 3: weighing on our revenues, that could be a headwind. We

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Speaker 3: do think at the end of the day, inflation is

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Speaker 3: good for earnings because inflation allows you to have pricing power,

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Speaker 3: it gives you revenue upside, it gives you operating leverage.

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Speaker 3: So we do think that having a little inflation in

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Speaker 3: the system is one of the reasons why earnings have

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Speaker 3: been so strong.

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Speaker 5: Kay, And it's only January sixteenth, so forgive me for

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Speaker 5: the baseball reference pictures and catchers don't report until February eleventh.

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Speaker 5: But here's my question for you. What inning are we in?

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Speaker 5: I mean, seriously, I can hear people make a case

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Speaker 5: that we're early stage, that we're late stage. Where are

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Speaker 5: we in the business cycle right now?

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Speaker 3: We've been thinking that we lean more towards late cycle

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Speaker 3: because of your long cyclical indicators like where construction spending is.

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Speaker 3: If you were early cycle, that would not be at peaks.

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Speaker 3: But if we think about where we are from a

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Speaker 3: pricing standpoint, we do have to appreciate that we're going

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Speaker 3: into this year at a much higher valuation than we

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Speaker 3: did the last two years. And we think the biggest

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Speaker 3: question for twenty twenty five is whether or not the

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty peak valuation about twenty three times earnings access

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Speaker 3: as a ceiling or if it's just another step along

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Speaker 3: the way to this huge multiple expansion that we've seen

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Speaker 3: the last two years.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, kim, let me let me build on this a

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Speaker 5: little bit. I was looking at us real yields, right

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Speaker 5: and I was looking at the two year versus the

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Speaker 5: ten yeard, trying to decompose them, and they're telling me

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Speaker 5: two different things. If you look at the moving yields

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Speaker 5: and nominal yields. Much of it can be explained by

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Speaker 5: inflation breakkeapings going up at least in the front end,

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Speaker 5: but if you look out to the ten year, it's

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Speaker 5: a move in real yields and growth expectations. So you know,

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Speaker 5: I'm trying to kind of reconcile the two.

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Speaker 4: What are your thoughts there?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and we also have to add in these fiscal concerns,

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Speaker 3: the potential questions around how are you going to fund

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Speaker 3: the fiscal deficit. Given the fact that we're hearing from

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Speaker 3: Bessent today, we know that bills as a percentage of

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Speaker 3: Treasury issuance or Treasury's outstanding is now at twenty percent

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Speaker 3: or over twenty percent. That's more than what tee back

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Speaker 3: the Treasury Borrowing Authority recommends, which just suggests that that

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Speaker 3: is a huge question for how Besant is going to

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Speaker 3: navigate these big deficits. Do we see them do more

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Speaker 3: cubon issuance? Does that cause long yields to go up?

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Speaker 3: Big questions?

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Speaker 2: Kemp, I want you, you're so visible and enthusiastic about

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Speaker 2: the American experiment. I want you to talk about a

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Speaker 2: gloom crew quieted again, like go to cash, and then

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Speaker 2: I got to figure out how to get back into

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Speaker 2: the market once I'm in cash.

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Speaker 4: What's your take on that.

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Speaker 3: We do think that you should always see volatility as

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Speaker 3: opportunity and it's a mindset shift that means that when

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Speaker 3: nicely said, yeah, you do, when you see volatility, it's

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Speaker 3: very easy for fear to kick back in and that's

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Speaker 3: when you get frozen. You get that arrested development. So

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Speaker 3: we think if you judge us as advisors, our success

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Speaker 3: is when clients call us when there is volatility and

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Speaker 3: say what should I buy? Versus saying get me out

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Speaker 3: of this. I want to sell.

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Speaker 2: This is so damien. I can't say enough. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you're on the beach in Miami, you don't care. I'm

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Speaker 2: inundated on the street, in restaurants, my email some of four,

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Speaker 2: I'm inundated with people saying I'm afraid to participate.

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Speaker 5: Well, I'm going to channel Brooks Ritchie in a little

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Speaker 5: bit of behavioral finance here, because for me, as we

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Speaker 5: get into January, it's all about positioning. It's all about sentiment, right,

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Speaker 5: and so talk to me about financial conditions. I mean,

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Speaker 5: what is it going to take to knock you us

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Speaker 5: financial conditions back again just a little bit. I mean,

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Speaker 5: is it going to be you know, equities coming off here?

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Speaker 5: Or spreads? I mean, how tight can spreads go? I mean,

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Speaker 5: talk to us about financial conditions? What are your expectations there?

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Speaker 3: Isn't it fascinating? So the four main components of financial

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Speaker 3: conditions being yields, currencies, equity prices, and credit spreads. Yields

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Speaker 3: and currencies have all tightened, but because equities and credit

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Speaker 3: spreads have remained so resilient, you haven't seen a tightening

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Speaker 3: in financial conditions, which means we think that financial markets

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Speaker 3: are effectively saying FED are not that tight. If the

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Speaker 3: FED was that tight, credit spreads would not be at

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Speaker 3: twenty year tights. If the FED was really weighing on

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Speaker 3: economic activity in a significant way, you would not see

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Speaker 3: how yield spreads where they are.

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Speaker 4: What's your call in the market now?

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Speaker 2: I mean, people, the whiplash the last two weeks has

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Speaker 2: been you. We're deep into twenty twenty five. I mean,

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Speaker 2: what's your call in the market this year?

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Speaker 3: Respect the trend, but do not ignore the risks. Our

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Speaker 3: call for twenty twenty five is a wide, choppy range.

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Speaker 2: Okay, we got to run because they got to do

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Speaker 2: bank earnings. You want to do bank earnings with us?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, he's more can Stanley being able to talk about

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Speaker 5: an entrance margins coming?

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Speaker 2: Ken Leon joins us, Now he's really really I'm honored

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Speaker 2: by this senior analyst Cfira with decades of experience.

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Speaker 4: Ken.

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Speaker 2: My basic take in my audience has heard this from me.

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Speaker 2: The banks are literally sandbag and how much money they're making,

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Speaker 2: they are profit machines. Let's start with the why Why

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Speaker 2: are these big banks profit machines?

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Speaker 6: The banks have a much stronger business model today Tom

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Speaker 6: than what we spoke about maybe three, five or ten

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Speaker 6: years ago. They have a blend of great franchises with

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Speaker 6: recurring revenue fees for transactions across many businesses, and then

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Speaker 6: on the up cycle for investing or really for investment banking,

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Speaker 6: we're seeing the added benefits. So it's almost like putting

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Speaker 6: fuel on the fire. And that's the story for twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Is there a monopolistic tendency here? Is there concentration of

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Speaker 2: revenue and particularly concentration of profits so great that you

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Speaker 2: are concerned?

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Speaker 6: Well, we're not concerned, but investors have to be aware

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Speaker 6: so that when you're investing in the overall market or

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Speaker 6: the financial sector, the five global US banks or top

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Speaker 6: ten constituents. And when we look at these banks, they're

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Speaker 6: gaining wallet share across different businesses. So the answer is yes,

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Speaker 6: consumer investment banking taking wallet share from Europe. Across most businesses,

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Speaker 6: they have dominant positions.

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Speaker 7: But that's a strength for America.

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Speaker 8: Up.

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Speaker 5: Ken, I'm sitting here next to gam Dawson and she's

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Speaker 5: dying to ask you this question. I mean, bankers are

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Speaker 5: claiming that there's just this enormous appetite for capital at

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Speaker 5: current levels. I mean a surge and profitability. Not just JP,

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Speaker 5: not just Goldman, but Wells and City as well, Yesterda,

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Speaker 5: Wells Fargo. Yeah, I mean everyone is making money in

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Speaker 5: this market. Ken, talk to us about BAA and Morgan Stanley.

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Speaker 5: What are you focused on here?

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Speaker 6: So we took a look at the numbers for Bank

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Speaker 6: of America. They're slightly better than JP. Morgan A loan

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Speaker 6: deposit growth three percent for buff Net enter or sink

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Speaker 6: I'm three percent in the areas of global banking, very

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Speaker 6: strong across all areas.

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Speaker 7: I think any.

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Speaker 6: Of these managements want to understate their book or outlaws

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Speaker 6: than still early.

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Speaker 2: This is my big theory. Cameron Dawson with us, we're

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Speaker 2: doing this differently this time. Do you have Cam Dawson

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Speaker 2: looking at the holistic market and Ken Leon with terrific

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Speaker 2: granularity is really what surveillance is about.

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Speaker 4: Kim Dawson, you're listening to this.

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Speaker 2: Is this a year where you look at Ken Leon's

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Speaker 2: work and say it's a sector acquisition or do you

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Speaker 2: buy individual securities?

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Speaker 8: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I mean we think the financials are set up for success.

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Speaker 3: You have a strong economy, you have a steeper yield curve,

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Speaker 3: you have the potential for regulatory improvement, and you have

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Speaker 3: the potential for a return to business activity in M

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Speaker 3: and A and IPOs. These are all important tailwinds. Just

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Speaker 3: don't forget the banks are now not that cheap. They're

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Speaker 3: trading at one and a half times book, which is

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Speaker 3: effectively the peak chem You agree, ken.

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Speaker 4: Leone, Are they rich? Yeah?

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Speaker 6: So we in November we've put the report out stay

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Speaker 6: the course for twenty twenty five. And what strategists don't

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Speaker 6: know is sometimes you can earn into your valuation or higher.

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Speaker 6: So we're going to see upward earnings estimates for the

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Speaker 6: consensus through all this year, we're overweight the financial sector

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Speaker 6: along with technology and communications services.

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Speaker 5: Ken my Son was just on the Morgan stan Lee

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Speaker 5: sophomore internship last night, and you know what, it's not

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Speaker 5: about net interest margins. It's about wealth management. Talk to

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Speaker 5: us about the seven one hundred and fifty what no,

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Speaker 5: I'm sorry, I'm sorry, seven point three billion dollar beast.

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Speaker 5: I mean, talk to us about wealth management, Morgan Stanley

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Speaker 5: Q four. I mean it's kind of have been great, right,

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Speaker 5: not lights out.

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Speaker 6: It never has these enormous jumps in terms of growth,

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Speaker 6: but they're just steady performers. What they do is they

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Speaker 6: create the story for durable, recurring revenue fee services. And

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Speaker 6: that's good because it's enabled Morgan Stanley in the last

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Speaker 6: year or so to get a wide, higher and multiple closer,

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Speaker 6: getting closer to a black Rock. So it is a

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Speaker 6: blend with that strong franchise in wealth management. Goldman's coming

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Speaker 6: up for different reasons, which is private ACNE and private

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Speaker 6: capital will be their new secular growth area.

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Speaker 2: I said this the other day, I think maybe it

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Speaker 2: was yesterday, that Blackrock now is even beginning to be

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Speaker 2: folded into the major bank analysis. With the success that

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Speaker 2: we've seen We welcome all of you across the nation

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Speaker 2: in your commute on Applecarplay.

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Speaker 4: Android Otto.

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Speaker 2: Good morning ninety nine one FM in Washington, Big events

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Speaker 2: down there. We're gonna go to Ethan Brodner and Tel

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Speaker 2: Aviv here in a bit. Good morning, ninety two nine FM, Boston,

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Speaker 2: our flagship Bloomberg eleven to three to zero, New York.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, and a first mentioned this morning YouTube Humbled

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Speaker 2: by the attendance, Thank you so much. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Ken Leon with us is CFII and Kim Dawson sitting in.

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Speaker 4: As well with NewART t Wealth Damian.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Ken, I mean, look when I look at the

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Speaker 5: Bank of Earnings and I try to break in and

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Speaker 5: see what's going on undneath the surface, I look at

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Speaker 5: dead underwriting because me that gives me a pretty decent

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Speaker 5: lead on commercial real estate. You know, and we know

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Speaker 5: what the commercial real estate market has looked like, and

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Speaker 5: we know what it looks like right now. There's a

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Speaker 5: lot of debt out there where you know, borrows are

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Speaker 5: paying four percent and they're gonna have to adjust to

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Speaker 5: an environment where they're paying eight nine percent. Now, talk

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Speaker 5: to us about that hurdle. How do they get there

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Speaker 5: and how are the banks helping them get there?

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Speaker 6: Right? So, for any of the large banks, they mostly

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Speaker 6: have exposure to multifamily, which is more stable. Commercial real

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Speaker 6: estate is mostly office is at risk. We see it

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Speaker 6: as kind of idiosyncratic for this year to twenty twenty six,

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Speaker 6: which means no big reserves. They already took them. Additionally,

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Speaker 6: the areas to still lendes areas like data centers for

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Speaker 6: AI on a global basis and overhall. When we look

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Speaker 6: at real estate, we're also seeing some deep values. So

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Speaker 6: firms like Blackstone and KKR and others, we'll.

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Speaker 7: Take a look at it.

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Speaker 6: Brookfield's another one.

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Speaker 5: Well, Ken, I mean I'm dying here. You talk a

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Speaker 5: little bit more about these data centers.

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Speaker 8: You know.

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Speaker 5: My read on it is that the building of data

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Speaker 5: centers accounts for easily one percent of GDP here in

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Speaker 5: the US. I mean, Cam, what are your thoughts about,

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Speaker 5: you know, that kind of convergence of you know, mag

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Speaker 5: seven tech and the real estate sector. I mean, talk

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Speaker 5: to us a little bit about what that means for

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Speaker 5: the US economy.

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Speaker 8: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Neil Dodger put out a really interesting note yesterday talking

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Speaker 3: about how he thinks it's about a half a percentage

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Speaker 3: point in the last year that tech has contributed and

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Speaker 3: that you've seen a slow down in the permits or

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Speaker 3: the initial kind of plans, which is a question of

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Speaker 3: how long can it last?

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Speaker 2: I got one more question, Ken Leander. What Damien was

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Speaker 2: talking about there? I think is an important frame with

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Speaker 2: your research capabilities at CFRA. Does Meg seven expand this

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Speaker 2: year with data center buildouts? With the oomph, the productivity

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Speaker 2: oomph of the American economy? Are we naiven a branded

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Speaker 2: idea of just seven stocks?

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Speaker 6: Well, it may not be seven stocks, you know, certainly

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Speaker 6: there's some enormous companies that are just below that market.

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Speaker 6: It's a very concentrated market. It does put a little

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Speaker 6: bit higher risk on equities if you want to be defensive.

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Speaker 6: Of course, Cameron could talk about an equal weight at

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Speaker 6: S and P five hundred or the SMPA, divity and aristocrats.

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Speaker 6: But overall, it's the market we're in.

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Speaker 2: Cameron, I got twenty two seconds equal weight. It's all

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Speaker 2: the rage now, isn't it. I mean every other page

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Speaker 2: of Barons equal weight?

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Speaker 4: What do you think?

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Speaker 3: Be careful?

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Speaker 5: Equal weight?

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Speaker 4: Thank you?

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Speaker 3: You have grown nine percent in the last two years.

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Speaker 3: MAG seven earnings have grown one hundred and twenty five percent.

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Speaker 2: This is why Cam Dawson's on, folks, She's got the detail.

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Speaker 4: Say that one more time, it's too important.

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Speaker 3: In the last two years, equal Weight earnings are up

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Speaker 3: nine percent. Mag seven earnings are up one hundred and

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Speaker 3: twenty five percent. No wonder, it's a consumation.

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Speaker 2: The only one I know on the street that can

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Speaker 2: do that is Sam Stolevall ken Leanes CFII.

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Speaker 4: Thank you so much for joining us today.

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Speaker 2: Cam Dawson, thank you as well, particularly for the acuity

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Speaker 2: of theirs.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We are honored to bring you Michael Nathansen of Maffatt

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Speaker 2: Nathan sin on this horrific moment for Los Angeles. Michael,

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Speaker 2: do you and Craig Moffatt have any idea how Hollywood

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Speaker 2: pauses or shuts down or regroups.

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Speaker 9: Were in tom That is the question, right, It's this

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Speaker 9: is something that the industry did not need at this

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Speaker 9: point in time, given that what you laid out of

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Speaker 9: the past four years. I don't know how our groups, right,

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Speaker 9: I don't know, you know, people have lost lives, homes.

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Speaker 7: I just don't know the community. I don't know how

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Speaker 7: they get back to work anytime soon.

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Speaker 2: And the Hollywood reporter Ingrid Schmidt, folks, this is this

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Speaker 2: is a minor story. Top Hollywood stylusts are helping fire

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Speaker 2: victims rebuild their wardrobes. I mean, Michael pulled us over

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Speaker 2: to the industry. Response you would hope for from people

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Speaker 2: like Disney, like is basic as what do they do

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Speaker 2: with the oscars?

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Speaker 4: What do you and Craig presume they could do?

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Speaker 9: I know it's interesting is invited to an award show

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Speaker 9: next month, and I assumed it was going to be canceled, right,

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Speaker 9: And I spoke to the people who were organizing it.

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Speaker 9: They felt like, for the community's sake that it has

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Speaker 9: to go on, right, the show must go on.

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Speaker 7: Tom.

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Speaker 9: I think they will try to get people together in

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Speaker 9: a community and regroup and basically not slow down whatever

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Speaker 9: was on the calendar.

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Speaker 7: I really do, because it's you.

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Speaker 9: Basically need to see people get together, figure out what

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Speaker 9: you can do to help your neighbor. So I was

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Speaker 9: surprised to learn that the thing what I was planning

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Speaker 9: to go to was still on. So I have to

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Speaker 9: believe the show will go on, Tom, I really do.

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Speaker 4: Please.

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Speaker 5: Well, Michael, I mean, look we I mean, you live

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Speaker 5: in Scarsdale. I live in Ryan, New York. You know,

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Speaker 5: we have friends out west, you know. And my question

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Speaker 5: for you just you know, and what you're hearing and

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Speaker 5: what you're you know, what what does your gut tell you?

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Speaker 5: I mean, how is LA going to move through this?

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Speaker 5: I mean, do you see migration? Do you see a

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Speaker 5: lot of the wealthy people who are out along the

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Speaker 5: pch you know, moving south, moving back to New York?

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Speaker 5: Even I mean, talk to us a little bit about

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Speaker 5: what you're hearing.

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Speaker 9: Well, it's you know, Sally, one of our partners in

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Speaker 9: Marfa Nathanson, lives by Brownwood and they spent some time

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Speaker 9: down south of LA, and he was suggesting that people

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Speaker 9: will move further south, away from the canyons and the hills,

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Speaker 9: maybe closer to the beaches. But you know, so to

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Speaker 9: your point him, you know, you've lost Rye, You've lost Scarsdale.

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Speaker 9: It's that type of you know, erosion of a community.

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Speaker 9: And I think it's going to take years for this

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Speaker 9: community to rebuilt. I do think you're right.

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Speaker 5: I think if you have the schools, I mean that's

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Speaker 5: people like us. I mean, what do you send your

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Speaker 5: kids to school?

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Speaker 4: Now?

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Speaker 5: What do you do?

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Speaker 9: How do you read crazy or church or temple or hospitals.

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Speaker 9: It's it's hard to imagine, but I think you will

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Speaker 9: see a flight.

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Speaker 8: I do.

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Speaker 9: I think people will pick up and move someplace a

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Speaker 9: little bit safer, maybe even cheaper.

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Speaker 7: Right give them the.

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Speaker 2: Cost of la Michael Nathanson, thank you for this perspective.

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Speaker 2: And you must think Rob Carolyn or Bloomberg mediaist who's

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Speaker 2: been sleepless for four or five six days, perhaps this

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Speaker 2: morning some quiet and containment out in Los Angeles. Michael,

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Speaker 2: I have to admit on Friday, I will go home,

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Speaker 2: I will commit the surveillance nap, and then I'm going

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Speaker 2: to get up and watch Silo the last season, the

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Speaker 2: last episode of the season for Apple. Tim Cook is

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Speaker 2: so Silo happy. He's doing photo things with the actress

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Speaker 2: who's leading it as well. Is Apple making inroads into

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Speaker 2: the Michael Nathanson world?

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Speaker 9: Tom, I love their content. There's some of the best

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Speaker 9: shows on TV. I haven't watched silo, I have to admit,

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Speaker 9: but there's a bunch of other things I watch.

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Speaker 7: They're not making a dent. Tom.

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Speaker 9: There's where you look at overall Apple share of time

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Speaker 9: spent streaming. Do you want to guess what their share

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Speaker 9: of streaming is? It's less right, Wow, it's I know

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Speaker 9: it's one percent, and it's just it's just terrible.

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Speaker 4: So we've been when we go.

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Speaker 9: To La to do our visits and tours, there's no

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Speaker 9: one in that town who knows what Apple's long term

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Speaker 9: plan is and what they want to be when they

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Speaker 9: grow up.

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Speaker 7: It's kind of amazing, right, it really is.

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Speaker 5: Michael. I'd love to take this in a very different direction.

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Speaker 5: I mean, you're I mean, I want to talk about

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Speaker 5: data centers and I want to talk about Capex from

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Speaker 5: the MAGS seven and Magain, I heard some very very

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Speaker 5: interesting figures over the past few days that if you

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Speaker 5: look back over the full year twenty twenty four and

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Speaker 5: you look at the MAG seven and they're spending on

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Speaker 5: data centers, and then you assume that banks are lever

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Speaker 5: you know, providing you know, weughly five six times to

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Speaker 5: leverage on that, you take that total that is pretty

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Speaker 5: much eighty percent of all CAPEX for the country in

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty four. I mean, does that number? Is that right?

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Speaker 5: I mean, is the amount of CAPEX that's being spent

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Speaker 5: on data centers? And forgive me, I don't know how

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Speaker 5: much computing power it takes for chat GPT relative to

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Speaker 5: a Google search. Maybe you can help me understand that.

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Speaker 5: Is this right? I mean, does this make sense to you?

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Speaker 7: It's a really interesting question.

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Speaker 9: So far from when we look at Meta and Alphabet

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Speaker 9: it has made sense because we're in the early phase

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Speaker 9: of the build out right, and when you look at

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Speaker 9: Meta's results, you can see the benefit of AI in

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Speaker 9: their ad numbers and their engagement.

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Speaker 7: You can see it at Google as well. Or we're

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Speaker 7: to your question.

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Speaker 9: We're at this really interesting tipping point where the cost

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Speaker 9: of cappecks the depreciation of cappax. I know it's not

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Speaker 9: in the morning, but I have to say depreciation at

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Speaker 9: nine in the morning. The cost of cappacks will start

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Speaker 9: hitting the income statements the next couple of years, and

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Speaker 9: the question will be is will the advertising revenues, will

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Speaker 9: the subscription revenues from cloud accelerate at the same rate as.

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Speaker 7: At capex growth?

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Speaker 9: Right that we're entering twenty five to twenty six will

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Speaker 9: be kind of the test period to see if it

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Speaker 9: may if these investages made sense to where we are today.

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Speaker 9: It's penciled out, but the full cost of CAPBECKS is

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Speaker 9: barely on the balance sheet today and barely on income

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Speaker 9: statement today.

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Speaker 5: Now talk to us also about like these data centers.

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Speaker 5: I mean, is there a risk that they become obsolete?

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Speaker 5: I mean, look at office. I mean, office is obsolete

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Speaker 5: right now, right, No, tear it down and class the

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Speaker 5: office here in real estate. But you know, I mean

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Speaker 5: it is a concern. I know that all the servers,

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00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 5: you know, their own kind of buy the Microsoft who

442
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 5: in the data center so they can replace them if

443
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 5: they do become obsolete. But just the footprints of these

444
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,159
Speaker 5: data centers and all the money that's being spent and

445
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 5: building these huge, huge structures, I mean, is there any

446
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 5: risk that you know, these things go obsolete and not

447
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 5: too distant future.

448
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 9: It's funny I was thinking of that this morning when

449
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,159
Speaker 9: I thought about how much someone like Elon Musk has

450
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 9: just thrown into a quick build of a data center

451
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,120
Speaker 9: in Tennessee, right, how quickly they've done this. You would

452
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 9: think logically, over time is the history of technology. Things

453
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 9: become more efficient, lighter, and cheaper, right, And you would

454
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 9: think over time these will look a bit old fashioned

455
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 9: and archaic to have these massive centers housing all these

456
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 9: these servers when the speed of change is going to

457
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:52,919
Speaker 9: produce something much lighter and smaller.

458
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 7: I think you're right about that.

459
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 2: Joining us, we thank you for being with us on

460
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 2: your community across the nation on YouTube, from your home,

461
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 2: from your office.

462
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 4: Do you know that on a Arrivian you can watch

463
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 4: us on YouTube in your car? Really?

464
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's a good thing or not,

465
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 2: but that's what somebody told me. Michael Nathanson with us,

466
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 2: and we thank him for trench and comments and the

467
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,679
Speaker 2: fire of the disaster in Los Angeles and these comments on.

468
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 4: The bigger picture as well.

469
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 2: Michael Nathanson, what's your single best idea for twenty twenty five?

470
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,119
Speaker 7: And you're gonna ask me that Tom asked me that

471
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 7: every time.

472
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 2: Like besides of Yankees not dropping the ball at the

473
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 2: wrong what is your single best idea?

474
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 7: The Rangers?

475
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 5: You know selling we'll get to the Rangers, blow it up,

476
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 5: blow it up outside your.

477
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 4: Single best idea?

478
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 9: So basically, my single best idea and I'm like, and

479
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 9: I'm gonna punt because the best they do have with

480
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:49,880
Speaker 9: the firm is sports gambling. It's Flutter and FanDuel. Right,

481
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 9: So my best idea. You know, we've been buyers of

482
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 9: Meta and Alphabet right for a lot of time.

483
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 7: Those will still work. They're fine.

484
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,919
Speaker 9: They're actually not that expensive relative to Apple, which I

485
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 9: know you Craig on last week, which is a sell on.

486
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 9: So in large cap tech, I'm fine with with owning

487
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 9: Meta and Alphabet I mean there, it's fine. But the

488
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 9: best structural idea we'll be buying into sports gambling with

489
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 9: it within you.

490
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 2: Okay, So here's what we're gonna do, because Damien, we're

491
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,919
Speaker 2: gonna rip up the script here. I'm interviewing Damien Sasaur

492
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 2: and Michael Nathanson to get to the news here is well,

493
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 2: let me start with Damien Sasauur as well, is gambling

494
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 2: out of control in sports because of the addiction that

495
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 2: all of us are written seeing each.

496
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 4: And every day.

497
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 5: Oh, you're asking me a question about what I know

498
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 5: about the you're asking me at the morality of sports.

499
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 2: I'm asking about it's grown so fast. That's why Nathanson.

500
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 4: Has a buy on it.

501
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 5: I don't think. I think I think Nathan's is right.

502
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 5: You haven't even scratched the surface of just how much

503
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 5: how far this can go. But here's my question. I mean,

504
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 5: I mean, Michael can correct me if I'm wrong. We've expanded,

505
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 5: I mean, the footprint of gambling hasn't really expanded so

506
00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 5: much this year relative to last. I mean, what Calgary,

507
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 5: Calgary got sports gamble this year? Maybe Kentucky I think

508
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 5: just legalized, Like and when is Florida? When does Texas?

509
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 5: When does some of these really big states start to

510
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 5: come online? Here is that part of your thesis?

511
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 8: Right?

512
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 9: So Robert Fishman on our and our our firm covers

513
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 9: covers the sector, and what he's found is that our

514
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 9: per capita basis, even though New Jersey has been rowing

515
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:20,120
Speaker 9: the years, in Europe.

516
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 7: Per capital spending keeps going up.

517
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,439
Speaker 9: Right, So you may have thought that everyone you know

518
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 9: is gambling and they're spending as much as they can.

519
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 9: But we're finding we don't need those states to come

520
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 9: online anytime soon because on a state by state basis,

521
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 9: there's more per capitive spending and the competitive dynamic. Right,

522
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 9: people started with all types of free bet offers, Those

523
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 9: those platforms.

524
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 7: Have gone away.

525
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 9: Yeah, pretty much a two horse market fan duel and DraftKings.

526
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 9: So it's become a duopoly and the per capitalist spend

527
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 9: keeps going up.

528
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 7: In Tom, I want to let you know I have

529
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 7: deep concerns about.

530
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 9: This as a as a parent and as a citizen.

531
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 9: But it's legal, Tom, right, you know what it's people

532
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,880
Speaker 9: send to me. People have spent Thanksgiving Day watching their

533
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 9: their grown children center our couch betting on Thanksgiving football

534
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 9: games as a family activity basically, you know, I mean.

535
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 4: This is so important.

536
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 10: What have you and your team Michael Nathanson learned from.

537
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 2: England in their decades, in almost centuries of really active

538
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 2: betting is part of the social culture.

539
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 4: I mean, is that what we're handling heading?

540
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 2: We're going to become like you know, you know Ira

541
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 2: Jersey losing his mortgage on Aston Villa.

542
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 4: I mean, is that where we're heading?

543
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 9: Well, you know it's interesting the UK has started to

544
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 9: put some real guardrails around this topic. Right, So the

545
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:50,439
Speaker 9: UK regulators are concerned about just how much ease or

546
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 9: how much generossity has been given to to betters and

547
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 9: you know, and putting, and they put limits on certain

548
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 9: types of bets. So you know, right now we're in

549
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 9: this phase where it's just unchecked, right, And I have

550
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 9: to think ten years from now, Tom, we'll look back

551
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 9: and say, oh, we should have done more in regulatory right,

552
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 9: But we're in this golden age of letting the market

553
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 9: decide how much is enough?

554
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 4: Right?

555
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 5: All right, Michael, enough is enough?

556
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 4: Here?

557
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 5: What happened to the Rangers? I mean, seriously, they're planning

558
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 5: a bit better lately, but I mean that the third

559
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 5: worst record in the Eastern Conference. I mean, you know,

560
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,439
Speaker 5: outside of I mean, he's just the force of nature.

561
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 5: You know, what is going on with the New York Rangers?

562
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 7: You know, you know, it's interesting.

563
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 9: So, as you know, we're analysts of firms and we

564
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:35,360
Speaker 9: have to look at strategies and CEO leadership decisions and culture.

565
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 7: And I think there's a story about culture.

566
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 4: Right.

567
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 7: I think the GM and the coach lost the room.

568
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 9: And as Tom knows, you know, hockey requires intensity and

569
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 9: dedication and throwing your body on, you know, on the

570
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 9: ice block shots, right.

571
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 7: I think they lost the room.

572
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 9: And by trading their captain and Genarado Goodrow and then

573
00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 9: Gettarad of Coco, they base.

574
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 7: I think they lost momentum. I really is that simple?

575
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 4: I really do.

576
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 2: Okay, I got one minute, Michael Nathan says, I think I've.

577
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 4: Got this right. As a foreigner.

578
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 2: The Jets are terrible, the Giants are terrible, the Islanders

579
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 2: are terrible.

580
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 4: The Rangers are terrible.

581
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 2: The Nets lost their worst games since time began last night?

582
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: What is it about New York sports that makes it

583
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 2: so damn bad?

584
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 7: Tom? As a New Englander, I think it comes.

585
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 9: Down to acknowledgement of ownership, right, like what did the

586
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 9: Crafts do?

587
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 7: What did the Boston Red Sox ownership?

588
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 4: Getting it right?

589
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 8: Do?

590
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 4: I mean, he's never coming out again.

591
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 9: I think it comes down to ownership, and we have

592
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 9: some terrible owners in New York, and I wish you

593
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 9: could have shareholder activism to replace all these folks.

594
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 2: Michael, I just want to tell you I'm going to

595
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 2: feature your comments on gambling and betting today on single

596
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 2: Best Idea of the podcast. Thank you for the comments

597
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 2: on this horror in Los Angeles. Thank you for your

598
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 2: comments of what Lisa and I are worried about their

599
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 2: kids and gambling. Mister Nathanson on zhigh Ground with Moffatt

600
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: Nathan Center, this.

601
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 1: Is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting

602
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 1: at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with

603
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,959
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on

604
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say

605
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 1: Alexa Play Bloomberg. Eleven thirty, with the.

606
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 2: Death of President Carter, we looked back at the struggle

607
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 2: of the Camp David Accords. The struggle now is far

608
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 2: more visceral, and in our modern media, including Bloomberg headlines,

609
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 2: far more immediate. No one has lived this like Ethan Bronner.

610
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 2: He's Bloomberg News Israel bureau chief and definitive on Levn.

611
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 4: I hate to say to Ethan, but me, the amateur,

612
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 4: saw this coming.

613
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 2: I saw the celebration what twelve hours ago, and now

614
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 2: I've gotten the last one and twenty minutes backtracking and

615
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 2: immense fragility. Tell me about the cabinet of net Yahoo.

616
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: Tell me about the Israeli Parliament and where they fit

617
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 2: into this matrix right now?

618
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,959
Speaker 8: Sure thing, Tom, You're you're showing your experience with your

619
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 8: with your cynicism. It's not really cynicism. But look, I

620
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 8: think that the difficulty is that there are two things

621
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 8: going on right now that are slowing the deal. One

622
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 8: is that, according to the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin

623
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 8: Antania Hamas has imposed new demands and renegged on and

624
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 8: other agreements, and therefore he's not letting his negotiators leave Doha,

625
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 8: the capital of Katar, to come back and brief the

626
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,719
Speaker 8: cabinet to vote on it. Now. Even when there is

627
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 8: such a vote, it will pass. But there is that. Now.

628
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 8: There's the other problem, which is two far right parties

629
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 8: are opposed to this. One of them has said it

630
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 8: would bolt the government over the other has just had

631
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 8: a two or three hour meeting and decided it won't

632
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 8: bolt it now. It'll let the deal go for six weeks.

633
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 8: But if Israel doesn't return to war after that, then

634
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 8: it will h.

635
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 2: With me today, Damien Sas are with really great expertise.

636
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 2: You know, we could go to Jacob Frankel, the former

637
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 2: governor of the Bank of Israel. But but there's a

638
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 2: there's a linkage here, Damien says, are for Ethan Browner's

639
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 2: world into just a fractured economy.

640
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 4: From Cairo up is up to Anchora.

641
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 5: Ethan, I just want to look a little bit north

642
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 5: of Israel here. I want to look to Lebanon because

643
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 5: some fascinating things are going on. It's the best performing

644
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 5: bond market on the planet here in twenty twenty five.

645
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 5: I mean these I mean they're basically in talks three

646
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 5: structure thirty billion dollars worth of bonds after the most

647
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 5: recent election. Talk to us about Israel, I mean the

648
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 5: two prong fight Hamas and Hesbala, they look north. What

649
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 5: are your thoughts there?

650
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 8: No, I mean, you're absolutely right. I mean that's the

651
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 8: sort of that crazy business is that if there is

652
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 8: if these deals can go forward, there is an enormous

653
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 8: amount of money ready to start investing israel Is. By

654
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 8: the way, as soon as there was a notion that

655
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 8: there would be a deal here, Israeli assets started to

656
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 8: go up, including the Sheckle. So you're right, and you know,

657
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 8: there is this very very delicate moment in Lebanon right

658
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 8: now where we're perhaps in a post his blow moment.

659
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 8: It's hard to really know, it's hard to believe it.

660
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 8: But if we are, then perhaps we could enter a

661
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 8: post Hummas moment in Gaza. But you know, the bedding

662
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 8: I would say it would be probably in the other direction.

663
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 8: I mean, it's not been a great period for the Reacher.

664
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 5: Well, Ethan rates you know, FX, I mean, you're right

665
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 5: in my wheelhouse there. But let's talk about commodities. I mean,

666
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 5: bring crude up nine percent year to date. The Bloomberg

667
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 5: Energy Index is up over ten percent this year alone.

668
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 5: Obviously a lot of that has to do with the

669
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 5: ceasefire arrangement. If it doesn't go through, can things just

670
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 5: you know, snap back that quickly?

671
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 4: I don't know.

672
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 8: I mean, I really find it hard to believe that

673
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 8: there will not be a deal, to be honest, but

674
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 8: you know, there's so much hesitation right now in Israel

675
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 8: that it makes me worry that it could fall apart.

676
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 10: What is the Trump constituency in a complex Tel Aviv

677
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 10: in Jerusalem, among the cabinet, the fourteen you know, Ethan,

678
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 10: I'm making a joke, the fourteen parties of Israel. What

679
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 10: is the Trump constituency within the people of Israel.

680
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 8: Well, what's really interesting about that, Tom, is that this

681
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 8: is this is one of the few countries in the

682
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 8: world that wanted to vote for Trump. If it hadn't

683
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 8: had a vote in November, it was sixty seven to

684
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 8: seventy percent pro Trump, Now, what has happened here right

685
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 8: now since this deal is that the far right is

686
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 8: feeling betrayed by Trump that and the left is embracing

687
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,719
Speaker 8: Trump because the far right thinks that they're giving up

688
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 8: too much. And this is true by the way of

689
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 8: conservative Jews in the United States commentary magazine and so forth.

690
00:32:56,480 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 8: We're saying that Trump has betrayed Israel by push for

691
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 8: this deal. That is not how the center and left field.

692
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 8: So it's a really strange situation.

693
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 4: We have to leave it there.

694
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 2: Ethan Bramer, thank you so much, and thank you to

695
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 2: Alyssa Odenheimer and Dan Williams for their journalism out of

696
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 2: Tel Aviv today. The headline and let me tell you

697
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 2: this may not be the headline in twenty minutes. Israel

698
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 2: says new demands by Hamas casting doubt on Gaza deal.

699
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 4: We'll be stay abreast of that shakra through the day,

700
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 4: and I know.

701
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: David gerin the Big Take focused on it with a

702
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 2: good effort in the last twelve hours as well.

703
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

704
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

705
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,719
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us

706
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

707
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 4: It's a daily look at the front pages. Lisa, what

708
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 4: do you go?

709
00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 11: Well, we talked about this yesterday, but we didn't get

710
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 11: into a d detail because we had a ton of

711
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 11: bank eardings.

712
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 10: We had CPI.

713
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 11: It was a crazy day yesterday. But this is about

714
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 11: the FDA banning artificial dye red three from being used

715
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 11: in food because it's being linked to cancer. I mean,

716
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 11: this is something that's used in like candy, cold medicine,

717
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 11: some drugs as well baking decorations. But what's crazy is

718
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 11: that thirty years ago the FDA banned this from being

719
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 11: used in cosmetics because they found that tumors linked to

720
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,359
Speaker 11: the dye in lab rats. I think the difference now

721
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 11: is there there is this provision that kind of pointed

722
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 11: to two different things that caused cancer in humans, so

723
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 11: kind of a provision chain. So that's why, yeah, they

724
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 11: changed it.

725
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:35,919
Speaker 6: Going.

726
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 4: I did, Damien, what you would do.

727
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 2: I went and looked at those fancy, overpriced cherries I

728
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,439
Speaker 2: have to buy for Manhattan's and I.

729
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 4: Was comforted they're completely free of red dye.

730
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 5: Well, Tommy shows what I know. I thought it was

731
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 5: banned thirty years ago. I didn't know it was cosmetics only.

732
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 5: I mean, if you can't put it on your face,

733
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:54,399
Speaker 5: how are you allowed to eat?

734
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 8: You eat it?

735
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:55,399
Speaker 4: Right?

736
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 5: Exactly so? And yet it's in so many different things, right,

737
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 5: I mean from sprink too. I mean, I don't you

738
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 5: tell me.

739
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 11: So much, morning Star Farms, plant based bacon strips. I know, Tom,

740
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 11: those are in your fridge. So the plant based bacon strips.

741
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 7: Okay, so you're gonna.

742
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:13,840
Speaker 11: Have to take them out. But if this is just

743
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,399
Speaker 11: the beginning, it's it's it goes beyond this, because they're

744
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 11: looking at red number forty like it's gonna keep continuing.

745
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:21,399
Speaker 11: So which which is a good mix?

746
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 4: What do you go?

747
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 5: Okay?

748
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 11: So Google signed this deal with the Associated Press to

749
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,799
Speaker 11: deliver up to date news through its Gemini AI chatbot.

750
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 11: The reason this is big is because this is Google's

751
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 11: first deal with the news publisher. So nobody saying how

752
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 11: much Google is gonna pay AP for the content. But

753
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 11: you'd start to notice a lot of these news publications.

754
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 11: First they were starting to license their information to train

755
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 11: these AI systems, and that was a big deal.

756
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,800
Speaker 5: And even speed over accuracy. Tom. It seems as a

757
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 5: focus on getting the news to people quicker, regardless of

758
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 5: whether it's right or wrong. So I think, you know,

759
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 5: there's gonna be some sacrifices and some bumps along the road.

760
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 5: But if Twitter is sorry X, is any indication of

761
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 5: where we're headed with that? I think I think we

762
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 5: should expect more of the thing from Google.

763
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 7: Yeah.

764
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 11: No, most definitely. And they even talk about this like

765
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 11: going forward with entertainment, like it's entertainment going to start

766
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 11: licensing movies and films to these AI companies that was

767
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:14,320
Speaker 11: talking about that.

768
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 4: It's all Nason. I mean, Nason, you know, we really

769
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:19,959
Speaker 4: don't know where we are right now, right, Okay? True?

770
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 4: What else do you have?

771
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:21,320
Speaker 5: Okay?

772
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,240
Speaker 11: So Super Bowl right, big time for commercials. But State

773
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 11: Farm pulling out their ads because of everything that's going

774
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 11: on with the Los Angeles fires. They're saying they received

775
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 11: over seventy four hundred home auto claims. They're putting tens

776
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 11: of millions of dollars back into the customer's hands, and

777
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 11: they expect that to rise because as more residents start

778
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,360
Speaker 11: to go back and assess the damage that's happened to

779
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:44,720
Speaker 11: their homes. But It's like it's spotlight on the insurance industry.

780
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 11: How companies have been like pulling back from California really difficult.

781
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:49,919
Speaker 4: This could be fascinating to see.

782
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 2: Instagram's are very strong on this, different people talking about

783
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 2: the tragedy that we're witnessing.

784
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,879
Speaker 4: One thing that would help would be LA's strong Are

785
00:36:58,880 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 4: the rams Damian?

786
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,359
Speaker 5: Are the rams in the game like the rams are

787
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:04,280
Speaker 5: on the game. But I want to be very serious

788
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 5: here for one minute. You know, we were at Crefzy

789
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 5: we were talking about, you know, the LA wildfires and

790
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,399
Speaker 5: what does that mean for migration patterns out of LA.

791
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 5: I mean, think about where people are obviously going to go.

792
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 5: They're going to try and first go south. They're gonna

793
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 5: go to Newport Beach. They're gonna try and go to

794
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 5: San Diego. But then where do they go when they

795
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 5: can't afford that and prices get ramped up?

796
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 4: Right?

797
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 5: Do they go to Phoenix? I mean do they go

798
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 5: to I mean come back to New York. I can

799
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 5: tell you this Tom, A lot of people are not

800
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 5: staying in Los Angeles after this one. I think you're

801
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,760
Speaker 5: going to see some migration outward. Yeah, Well, it's discussion

802
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 5: and by the way, We're not going to get Danny

803
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 5: DeVito and I don't know Schwartz and the going the

804
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 5: Super Bowl either, So I mean, come on, I mean,

805
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 5: what are we talking about. Wasn't that big State Farm

806
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 5: commercial last year in the Super Bowl.

807
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 3: Yeah?

808
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, We're doing an honor of Damien and tanned and

809
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 2: resteders today.

810
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

811
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

812
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

813
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

814
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

815
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal